Transcript
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Today we have some updates on around and how people have been hearing varying plans for the ceasefire from different sources and how to make sense of what's really going on. Also, we took some phone calls today from somebody who was 24 years old. Can I even be a success in America today? And so much more. You don't want to miss a second of today's podcast. Here it is.
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You're listening to the best of the Glenn Beck program.
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So why does this feel so chaotic? Why do we really not know what's going on? When you watch something and this is a normal human trait, we, we, we have this innately so we can survive. We are not meant to live in chaos and we're not meant to live in a world that is so unbelievably complex. So we're all looking for answers. We're all looking for meaning. We're looking for straight lines that make sense to us. Draw a line and say that's what's happening. Unfortunately, in something like this, at this point, that instinct is going to hurt you. Because what we're looking at right now is not clean. It isn't one plan. It's not, you know, it's. It's not, it's not just one guy or even two guys moving pieces across the board. It is competing interests stacked on top of each other, sometimes working together, sometimes working at cross purposes, sometimes colliding in ways nobody fully controls at all. So let me just take this apart. What are we looking at here? We're looking at, first, Iran. From the outside, it's easy to say Iran. And it's one thing, one regime, one decision maker, one intention, but it's not, it's not. You have the people who, some of them are for the old regime. I think the majority are against the old regime, but we haven't even seen anything from them. Then you have the politicians who sit across tables and speak the language of diplomacy and understand sanctions and market pressures and what isolation's gonna cost us and all of that crap. Okay? And those people are now the pragmatists. They're the ones going, we gotta keep the country breathing. The economy is about to collapse. I have a story on this coming up in just a minute. I can, I can, I can quote them word for word. The economy is about to collapse. Then you have another group. You have the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. This is a completely different animal entirely. They don't just fight the wars. They are the ones that run industries. They, they control all of the ports, they move the money. They, they have built a banking and ecosystem that feeds off of chaos and instability. The more tension in the system, the more relevant they become, the more indispensable they become. And they're not dead yet. So when you see a negotiation on one side and a missile on the other, the easy answer to say they're out of control. No, no, no. Sometimes they are, sometimes they're not. Sometimes they're doing exactly what they were bidding built to do, apply pressure without triggering collapse. Now let's look at the other players. Let's just look at China because there was something going around yesterday going China, you know, Donald Trump is playing and going after China. And I think that's part of it. But China's not in this for the ideology. Let's look at China here for a second. They certainly don't care about, you know, revolution and theology. What they care about is flow of oil, trade routes, stability where it matters, instability where it can be managed. No one, well, except honestly, the irgc. Nobody wants chaos because it doesn't benefit anybody. If you want to live in today's world, okay, Iran is giving them away around all of the pressure to be able to keep them on their side. That's discounted energy, okay, but there's a limit to that because China doesn't want to fire, it can't control it doesn't want a regional war that spikes global markets or forces choices that it, it doesn't want to make. So the relationship with China is real, but it's not blind loyalty. It's transactional and it can tighten or loosen depending on the temperature. Then you have Israel. Israel, they got us in this war. Can, can we just look at Israel for what it really is. A separate state that thinks that it is right or wrong, thinks that it is in an facing an existential danger that these guys will wipe Israel off the face of the map. It's a decision of not if, but when, which one's going to do it. And they're not waiting around for anyone else to solve this. They have their own interest. You don't have to like them, you don't have to agree with them. But they are a separate entity entirely. They act when they believe they have to. And those actions also ripple outward, whether anybody likes it or not. Every strike, every response, everything feeds back into the system and changes the next move. For instance, yesterday, ceasefire is over. I want to get into that here in a little while, but let me just say why. Why were they saying that? Because Israel was hitting Lebanon and there is a dispute, was that part of the ceasefire or not? I'll get into this later, but let me. Let me explain why they are going after Lebanon. They're not going after Lebanon or the Lebanese people. They're going after Hezbollah. And I want to forget about the Middle east for a second. Let me explain this as Mexico, let's say right across the border, there was. And there's not going to be a far stretch. Right across the border, there was a vile, awful, nasty drug cartel just over the border in. In Mexico. And we knew they were not. They were doing more than just pumping drugs into us. We knew that they were planting bombs and killing our citizens on this side of the border. And we had had enough. And we had said to Mexico over and over again, you got to control this. You got to get them out of there. You got to get them out of there. And they never did. And so then we said, okay, we'll do it. And at some point, Mexico said, we're with you on that. You got to get out this drug cartel. You got to stop it, and you got to get out. But they couldn't really mean it. They didn't have the teeth to do it. They would, they would, they wanted that, but they're not going to be able to do it themselves. And so what would we do? We wouldn't care if Mexico was with us or against us. We wouldn't care if there was a big global war that was happening someplace else. If our people were being killed by. By this drug cartel, terrorist group, we would bomb them. That's what Israel is doing. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. I'm not saying you have to like it. I'm just telling you what it is. That's why they were bombing, because they have Hezbollah, which, by the way, is a proxy of Iran, Hezbollah right across their border. And they're. They've made it very clear we're not taking it anymore. We are wiping all of this out. Okay? And these groups like Hezbollah and everything else, they're in this gray, you know, this gray zone. They're actually connected. They're an arm of the IRGC in Iran, but everybody wants to keep them in the gray zone, but they're operating with the money and the consent of the irgc, and they extend the battlefield, they blur the responsibility, they make ceasefire a word that doesn't mean what everybody thinks it means. So when something breaks, when missiles fly, when agreements look like they're ignored, the temptation is to say somebody violated something, somebody broke the deal, and it is Weird to me, as I told you just a minute ago, how many bombs and missiles and drones the IRGC sent over the border of other countries yesterday and the same time that Israel was bombing Lebanon? And that's a clear violation. What Iran did is not in dispute. That's a clear violation. But no one reported on it. Which then goes to why. What was the motivation of almost everyone in our press yesterday? What was the motivation of those who are podcasters and influencers to not mention that. I'll tell you what Israel is doing, and I'll tell you, you don't have to like it, but that's what they're doing. But I'll also tell you this is what Iran was doing. And I'm not saying one is better than the other or one causes the other one. I'm just telling you the facts. Why would no one do this? This is where the, you know, hot take, influencers and podcasters are coming in. Because they'll all say there's a master plan, and it ranges from Donald Trump has sold us out or Iran. I mean, Israel is selling us out, or whatever, whatever, okay? And they'll make it look like everything is being controlled and, you know, one person is pulling all the strings. It's satisfying. It. It honestly, it helps you reduce the chaos in your own mind and helps you feel perhaps more secure, because we need that reduction in chaos. But most of the time, it's not right. It's not right. And it's not right because we don't have all of the facts yet. And also power at this level, when it is this complex, is not a single mind playing perfect chess. It is moving through advisors and priorities in different countries and public pressure and limited information. There are strategies, there are patterns, but there's also just reaction. There are moments when decisions are made with incomplete picture. And that's happening right now in real time in all of our information systems. So let me go through this, because there are constraints here in America and there are things you need to understand. And then I want to go through some of the things that people were saying, and I want to explain them to you. Not justify anything, just explain them to you so you. You maybe can reduce the chaos in your day and understand this a little bit better. Okay? So we have things that are really constraining us here in America. We're constrained by our war fatigue and our economic risk alliances that we have that have to be managed, not commanded. And everything we do carries weight beyond the immediate target. So when you're looking at the News of the day, especially when it comes to the war, you have to understand you're not watching one or two entities. You're watching a very crowded room, different players, different goals, overlapping strategies, some of them pushing towards stability, others benefiting from tension, few trying to shape outcomes that nobody fully controls. Iran's not a voice. China isn't a puppet master. The United States isn't operating without limits. Israel isn't sitting still or controlling all of it. The proxies are not background noise. All of it is one giant stew. And if you try to reduce this, as people have been trying to do, one villain, one genius, one plan, you're going to miss the signals that actually matter. And I did my homework on this yesterday because I thought of something that really kind of scared me and I thought, oh, I haven't even thought of this. And I started doing my homework on it and I think we're okay. But with that one understanding, it gave me a completely different view of even this 10 point plan, which we don't even know what the 10 points are. Okay, we don't even know. But you got to look for the small shifts and the pressure points and the moments where things can tip. Not necessarily because somebody intended it, but because the moving parts lined up in the wrong way or the wrong time or worse yet, I've been telling you this for a while. World wars are not started by one party, you know, just being crazy. It's usually started by one party just making a bad miscalculation. That's how situations like this get away from people. And that's why I urge podcasters and everybody else, slow down, slow down. You don't have to be right today. You don't just try to make sense. Try to help people understand what is happening right now. Because if we don't, if things like this get misunderstood, the next move is usually made with far too much confidence. We have to understand it first. And we have to understand first that we don't understand it. That's why I think we need to slow down. This is what I think the media, new and old, is missing. So let me get to the problem that hit me yesterday, and I think I have a happy answer after doing some homework. But our side is being run by the world's best deal maker, right? I trust that guy to sit down at the table against anybody and make a deal and think that deal is going to be in our best interest and we're going to get the best deal we could possibly get with whomever he's sitting across the table. Okay. But he's used to sitting down with people who are buying buildings or you know, even, even nations that nations want to survive. There is a group of people in the IRGC that they think their win is death and chaos. We're judging all these non existent 10 point deals and talking about deal making. But what if the people that actually have control don't want a deal? They want the return of the Mahadi. What? How should we be negotiating if we knew we were playing against those kind of players? You're listening to the best of the Glenn Beck program. I'm really bummed that we. I didn't have more time to talk to Nick on the phone. Who asked question. You know, I'm 24 years old. I would. Nick, call me tomorrow. I'd like to talk to you some more. 24 years old. Can I still be successful in America? And my answer is yeah, you absolutely can. But it requires a different mindset entirely. Especially with AI coming. It's going to be, it's going to be difficult, challenging. But everything has been. Everything my whole life has been challenging. You know, think, think about the people who are, were farmers that, you know, there was no electricity. There was, you know, and then all of a sudden everybody moves into the cities and there's refrigeration and everything. Think about, think about how they're just. Their whole life, their whole cities collapsed. They had to adjust and they did. And it's. My dad used to say, life is nothing but a series of adjustments. You either adjust or you go nuts. He went nuts in the end. No, I'm kidding. But it's true. And I'm listening to Jason talking to the insiders right after, you know, we went into the break and Jason does a show within the show. When I go into commercials, he's usually talking about other things and getting to facts and details that I just didn't get a chance to get to. And he started talking about, you know, how he's the American success story. And I was listening to you, Jason. I'm like, you know, I think you're right. I think you, I mean, you are another great example of you don't have a reason to be, you know, you didn't, you didn't set out to do something like this. And all of us, you know, and you like. But you didn't even see your success come. I did. But you didn't even see your success coming.