The Globalist – "A Look Ahead to 2026"
Podcast: The Globalist (Monocle Radio)
Air Date: January 1, 2026
Host: Chris Chermack
Length: ~37 minutes
Summary by Segment with Key Quotes & Timestamps
Overview of the Episode
This special New Year’s Day edition of The Globalist provides broad reflections on the international landscape heading into 2026. Anchored by Chris Chermack, the episode features in-depth segments on:
- Europe’s challenge to bolster its own security and defense
- Asia-Pacific’s economic outlook amid US trade tensions and AI-driven transformation
- Pope Leo’s first year as head of the Catholic Church
- The evolving importance and dynamics of global gatherings, with a special look at Davos and multilateral diplomacy
The episode’s tone is measured, insightful, and forward-looking, offering listeners an engaging panorama of the world’s pressing challenges and the personalities shaping 2026.
1. Can Europe Stand Alone on Defense?
Guest: Gorana Gurgi, Monocle Security Correspondent
[03:05 – 11:50]
Key Discussion Points
- Europe and the US (Trump administration): Both insist that Europe should take greater responsibility for its own defense, especially as US support appears less predictable.
- EU's Challenge: Can the EU build real military capability and industrial depth to deter Russia and act autonomously?
- Significant Initiatives:
- We Arm Europe and the Readiness 2030 Strategic Initiative: Aim to integrate EU defense, finance greater spending (~€800bn), and support Ukraine.
- Defense Readiness Roadmap: Sets concrete strategy for European defense capabilities, with a goal of full readiness by 2030.
- Action vs. Rhetoric: 2026 will test whether broad plans will translate into real, implemented projects—especially among the nine new "capability coalitions" (covering air/missile defense, drones, AI/quantum, ground/maritime forces, etc.).
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On Europe’s autonomy:
“At the highest level, the EU is trying to answer one core question: whether it’s able to build the military capability and industrial depth to deter Russia, and to act more autonomously as US support becomes less predictable.”
— Gorana Gurgi [03:50] -
On the challenge of unity:
“Europe either learns to buy together or basically it falls back into national silos.”
— Gorana Gurgi [07:10] -
On Franco-German infighting over fighter jets:
“Who should build them, who gets to build them, who gets the spoils? ... There are such nationalist concerns still, even if in theory everyone in Europe agrees that they need to work together.”
— Chris Chermack [07:45] -
On lessons from Ukraine and Eastern Flank:
“We see Ukraine continually teaching Europeans how to be resilient, how to innovate at the pace of the battlefield…”
— Gorana Gurgi [09:41]
Key Segment Timestamps
- [03:05] Europe’s security urgency
- [05:10] New EU plans for defense cooperation
- [07:45] Infighting over defense projects: France & Germany
- [09:41] Lessons from Ukraine and frontline Eastern EU members
2. Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook: Fragility After the Sugar Rush
Guest: Stefan Angrick, Moody’s Analytics (Tokyo)
[12:43 – 19:13]
Key Discussion Points
- 2025 Review: Economic uptick fueled by "export frontloading" ahead of US tariff hikes—a fleeting "sugar rush".
- 2026 & Beyond: Forecasts for Asia-Pacific are subdued, with slower growth as export dependence turns into a vulnerability:
- AI & Semiconductors—particular strength for economies like Taiwan and Korea.
- Weaker domestic demand—especially acute in Japan and China.
- Intensified global competition (especially with and among China, US, Taiwan, Korea).
- Taiwan's AI-driven boom: Over 7% growth expected, though sustainability is uncertain—potential for boom-bust cycles.
- Japanese yen: Persistently and "unreasonably" weak, out of sync with economic fundamentals due to speculative trading.
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On the coming slowdown:
“2025 was looking pretty good because we had a sort of sugar rush from export front loading ahead of US tariff hikes... but that sugar rush is now fading. So growth going into 2026, 2027 is going to slow.”
— Stefan Angrick [13:12] -
On structural export dependence:
“Asia Pacific is very export dependent. So we're now in a world where that export dependence becomes a vulnerability.”
— Stefan Angrick [14:25] -
On Taiwan’s exceptional growth:
“It looks like Taiwan will grow more than 7% in 2025, which is probably the fastest growing economy this year. It's growing even faster than India at that rate.”
— Stefan Angrick [16:38] -
On Japan’s currency conundrum:
“If you... compare the spread in interest rates between Japan and the rest of the world against the yen exchange rate... the yen is now much, much weaker than rate spreads suggest.”
— Stefan Angrick [17:45]
Key Segment Timestamps
- [12:43] Export-driven “sugar rush” fading
- [15:47] AI/semiconductor boom: sustainability and risks
- [17:40] Japan’s “unreasonably” weak yen
3. Pope Leo’s First Year: Calm, Calculating, and Politically Active
Guest: Juliet Lindley, Former Vatican Correspondent (Zurich)
[19:58 – 27:17]
Key Discussion Points
- Leo’s Papacy: The first American Pope, took office in May 2025; early reviews highlight his measured, less charismatic, but stabilizing leadership.
- Messaging and diplomacy: Emphasis on “unarmed and disarming peace”; less improvisational than his predecessor, Pope Francis.
- Political engagement: Openly critical of harsh immigration policies, calls for humane treatment of migrants, and support for two-state solution in the Middle East.
- Bridge-building international trips: Continued Francis’s plans (notably the trip to Turkey and Lebanon), asserting his status as a globally relevant leader.
- Reaching the young: Viral moment with a Portuguese DJ priest, using unconventional outreach.
- Internal Church policy: Leaning more traditional on issues like the Latin Mass—positioned as less progressive than Francis, but working to heal divisions within the Church.
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On Pope Leo’s style:
“He's far more balanced. He's perhaps a bit less charismatic… He's a mathematician actually, Chris!”
— Juliet Lindley [21:04] -
On his political interventions:
“He has specifically asked the Trump administration to respect human beings and its deportation policies.”
— Juliet Lindley [22:08] -
On his viral appeal to youth:
“God is on the dance floor with us, Chris. He says musicians can change the world. So can young people.”
— Juliet Lindley [25:14] -
On Church politics:
“He's certainly reaching out to the different parts within the Catholic Church that were very pulled apart and polarized by Pope Francis... making attempts to bring them back into the fold.”
— Juliet Lindley [26:27]
Key Segment Timestamps
- [20:25] Pope Leo’s style and transition
- [22:08] Political messages and diplomacy
- [23:50] Impactful international trips
- [25:14] Connecting with youth
- [26:27] Progressivism vs. tradition in the Vatican
4. Davos, Global Gatherings, and the Shadow of Trump
Guest: Carlotta Rebelo, Monocle Executive Producer and Davos Regular
[28:05 – 36:13]
Key Discussion Points
- Davos as global crossroads: Explained for listeners—the mix of formal and informal meetings, nation-/company-branded “houses,” and who attends.
- The “Spirit of Dialogue” in 2026: Davos theme confronts strains in multilateralism amid geopolitical contestation.
- The Trump effect: Attendance and program content at Davos are shaped by whether Trump will participate. WEF reportedly adjusted topics to ensure his presence and encourage other big players to show up.
- Upcoming events:
- Winter Games, Milan–Cortina: Focus on soft power and civic engagement.
- MIPIM (real estate conference) and the European housing crisis: Connections drawn between access to housing and the rise of extremism/populism in Europe.
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On the feel of Davos:
“Everyone is in town, and this is just the official accredited people... the entire town also becomes Davos Week.”
— Carlotta Rebelo [30:12] -
On Trump and WEF:
“The World Economic Forum has given assurances... to Donald Trump's administration that overly woke topics would not be part of the official program in order to make sure that Donald Trump attends.”
— Carlotta Rebelo [33:24] -
On the significance of event spaces:
“Which nations or companies are investing big and betting on 2026... you can see that by the size of the house, the position on the promenade...”
— Carlotta Rebelo [31:54] -
On the European housing debate:
“A recent report actually linked the housing crisis with the rise of extremist far right views... one of the only ways to tackle the rise in populism is actually by ensuring people are given homes and that we tackle the housing crisis.”
— Carlotta Rebelo [35:54]
Key Segment Timestamps
- [28:05] Introduction to Davos and Hong Kong recap
- [30:12] Inside the Davos experience
- [32:37] Multilateralism, Trump’s impact on the WEF agenda
- [35:02] Notable upcoming events: Winter Games, housing crisis summits
Memorable Quotes: Quick Reference
| Time | Speaker | Quote | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:50 | Gorana Gurgi | “EU is trying to answer one core question: whether it’s able to build... to deter Russia, and to act more autonomously... as US Support becomes less predictable.” | | 13:12 | Stefan Angrick | “2025 was looking pretty good... but that sugar rush is now fading. Growth... is going to slow.” | | 16:38 | Stefan Angrick | “Taiwan will grow more than 7% in 2025... fastest growing economy this year.” | | 21:04 | Juliet Lindley | “He's a mathematician actually... He’s very sort of linear in his thinking and in his acting and in his speaking.” | | 22:08 | Juliet Lindley | “He has specifically asked the Trump administration to respect human beings...” | | 25:14 | Juliet Lindley | “God is on the dance floor with us, Chris. He says musicians can change the world. So can young people.” | | 33:24 | Carlotta Rebelo | “The World Economic Forum has given assurances... overly woke topics would not be part of the official program in order to make sure that Donald Trump attends.” |
Thematic Takeaways
- Europe’s Security Dilemma: 2026 will reveal if the EU can turn strategy into real capability, bridging national divides for common defense.
- Asia’s Shifting Fortunes: Export reliance is now a weakness; the AI/semiconductor boom has lifted some, but the outlook is uneven and volatile.
- Pope Leo’s Leadership: The Vatican’s new American Pope projects calm, calculated engagement—combining tradition with diplomatic activism and youth outreach.
- Diplomacy in Flux: Davos remains the bellwether of global dialogue, but its relevance and influence now hinge on unpredictable personalities and power plays—especially Trump.
- Future Trends: The intersection of geopolitics, economics, faith, and social change will shape a year of uncertainty and possibility.
For Listeners
This episode is indispensable for anyone seeking a sharp, panoramic start to 2026. The blend of high-order analysis and on-the-ground insight helps make sense of what’s at stake—from the halls of the EU, to the boom-and-bust economies of Asia, to the Vatican, and the snowy streets of Davos.
Europe’s defense, Asia’s economic balancing act, the Church’s path under Pope Leo, and the global gathering circus all reflect a world in search of its footing—a world where 2026 could be the year strategies and hopes are finally put to the test.