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Chris Chermack
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 1 January 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Broadcasting from Midori House in London. This is a special New Year's Day edition of the Globalist. I'm Chris Chermack. Coming up on today's program, can Europe step into its role as a defender of the international world order and its own continent? We'll ask our security correspondent Gorana after that.
Stefan Angrick
The Asia Pacific region has always grown through exports. We're now in a world where that export dependence becomes a vulnerability.
Chris Chermack
A look at Asia's economic outlook heading into 2026. And then in the midst of these struggles, a sense of hopefulness and encouragement can be found when we focus on what unites us. The first year of Pope Leo in the Vatican. Juliet Lindley will give the new Pope a first year report card. And finally, we'll take a look. Head to the World Economic Forum in Davos and whether Donald Trump will attend. All that right here on a special edition of the Globalist. With me, Chris Chermak. Happy New Year everyone. Great to have you with us on the Globalist for another year of Monacle Radio. And we're going to use today's show for a bit of a step back from the news and offering some general reflections on the year ahead. We will start today's show in the security space because if the war in Ukraine and one year of the Trump administration have shown us anything, it is that Europe needs to be better able to stand on its own two feet, especially on defense. Of course, boosting defense cooperation and spending on a continent as diverse as Europe is easier said than done. And for a look at how it's going and what to expect from this year, I'm joined now by Monocle's security correspondent, Gurana Gurgi. Gurana, great to have you on this first of January show. Happy New Year to you.
Gorana Gurgi
Great to be with you Chris. And likewise, all the best in the new year. Hopefully it's off to a successful and somewhat restful start.
Chris Chermack
We can all hope that that this will be a more restful year than 2025, we'll see how that goes, but we'll, we'll be having you on regularly, I'm sure, to talk about many of the developments of the year. But we wanted to start with this kind of broad look at European defense and guarana. I think what's interesting for me is that perhaps it's the one thing that Europe and Trump should be able to agree on, because whatever you think of Trump's handling of Ukraine and the peace talks and NATO, he wants Europe to take on a greater role in defense. And so does Europe, at least in principle, for sure.
Gorana Gurgi
So if you're trying to get to grips with where European defense is headed in 2026, you're not alone. And I think that at the highest level, the EU is trying to answer one core question, and that is whether it's able to build the military capability and industrial depth, to deter Russia, and to act more autonomously as US Support becomes less predictable. So far, we've heard a lot of plans. I think we just go by what was happening last autumn, the unprecedented speed with which Brussels has moved in, pitching new projects, in, unlocking fresh money, in publishing this Defense Readiness Roadmap. It's all been there, but I think what 2026 really be about is delivery. Can Europeans actually put their sort of feet and in sort of action where their mouth has been for these past couple of months especially?
Chris Chermack
There is so much that's going to be happening in that space. The proof is in the pudding, if you will, to add another way of describing this boosting European capabilities and coordination. Give us a little bit of a rundown of what we're expecting this year, because there are a lot of different concrete projects that will be coming up in the first and the second half of 2026.
Gorana Gurgi
That's absolutely right. So basically, I would just very briefly flag something for all the listeners to kind of be aware of that really in 2025, we've seen some of these major plans that are aiming to integrate European Union defense industrial efforts at a way that we haven't seen before. With first, what was launched is the We Arm Europe plan, this Whole Readiness 2030 strategic initiative, which was basically promising to finance greater spending, about 800 plus billion euros, to strengthen defense industry, to coordinate joint procurement, and to basically support Ukraine. And then later in the year, we saw the Defense Readiness Roadmap, which was when it was launched, basically meant to be a concrete strategy to boost European defense capabilities to achieve full readiness by 2030 in some of the key areas that it has identified. And so what we will be keeping an eye on, certainly myself, a lot of colleagues who are in this space is the delivery, actually and kind of concretization, if we can say that way, of some of these promises. So one of them is the nine coalitions that have to do with capability. They're called capability coalitions. It sounds very abstract, but basically what it's all about is that EU has identified, identified that there are nine different focus areas, from air and missile defense to artillery systems, ammunition and missiles, drones, military mobility, AI quantum, and all that goes into kind of these new emerging and disruptive technologies, strategic enablers, ground combat and maritime capabilities. And basically here, what we want to see in the first half of this year, and this is what needs to be delivered, is basically concrete projects. So how actually member states are going to be going about this, what are going to be the projects that are going to be unveiled under these nine different kind of broader baskets, if you want. And then what will be done is that in 27 and 28 and all the way to 2030, we want to basically see procurement based on what has been identified as key kind of contracts being locked in, financing being patched up. So this is where Europe either learns to buy together or basically it falls back into national silos.
Chris Chermack
And speaking of those national silos, Garana, I mean, one row that we saw in 2025, which perhaps shows how difficult this is in practice, even if not in theory, is a row over fighter jets between France and Germany. Who should build them, who gets to build them, who gets the spoils? I mean, is that a sign to you of just how difficult this is going to be and that there are such nationalist concerns still, even if in theory everyone in Europe agrees that they need to work together?
Gorana Gurgi
You've hit the nail right on the head there, Chris, because this has been a perennial issue. Of course, this is the whole story about the defense industrial sort of world, where fragmentation has been the name of the game. Because there are of course, a lot of incentives for states to try to use investments into defense. Right? Military spending is basically domestic kind of job creation and wealth creation project. And this is exactly what the European Union wants to avoid, right. And wants to do differently this time around, because you can't do it at scale if you do it alone. So there are plenty of disputes and a lot of people are very pessimistic about where FCIs might go in 2026 and whether it's actually the end of the road for this project, for this initiative, which would be A shame.
Chris Chermack
Just finally then guarana, if France and Germany cannot agree and this might be the end of the road for something like the FCAS program. What can Europe learn from Ukraine itself being in the war that it is in and from its eastern members for that matter? I wonder if some of the projects that are coming up next year as a drone initiative, the Eastern Flank Watch, is the, is that part of, I guess a sign that Eastern Europe and Ukraine are also teaching Europe some lessons?
Gorana Gurgi
That's absolutely right. And I think here we have to know that two of these initiatives that you mentioned, so the European Drone Defence Initiative, some have referred to it as the European Drone Wall. Right. And the Eastern Flank Watch are part of these four flagship programs that have been part of what was announced again back in October with that defense readiness roadmap. There are also the programs that have to with European Air Shield and European Space Shield. And for sure what you already highlighted in your question stands true, right? That we see Ukraine continually teaching Europeans how to be resilient, how to innovate at the pace of the battlefield actually and to try to be more flexible to do things maybe in a way that doesn't necessarily follow the kind of decades all paradigms. Right. Because this is the sort of new as well technologies being implemented on the battlefield. But for sure as well, when it comes to eastern flank, we know that mostly countries that are the sort of frontline states have been the most forward leaning when it comes to their defense spending to actually translating that spending into meaningful capabilities. Because I think that's really something we need to underscore here that it's not just about the money you spend, but whether you spend it on the right things. But even having said all of this, I think what's really important is that for Europeans that certain strategic decisions that are being made today are also not just about thinking that all of the kind of future defense and deterrence sort of needs are going to be exactly what we've learned from Ukrainian battlefield. Right. And here really I think the crucial point is one where we do think about European continent with increasingly lesser U.S. presence and U.S. support when it comes to some of these critical enablers. So how is it that Europeans are going to plug some of these holes when it comes to things like intelligence? So there are some bigger questions there.
Chris Chermack
Gorana Gurgich, Monocle's security correspondent, thank you very much for joining us today. We look forward to having more contributions from you throughout 2026. This is the globalist.
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Chris Chermack
2025 has been a turbulent year, to say the least, for Asia's economies. From the shock of Donald Trump's tariffs to the continued currency slides across the region and the powerful AI and semiconductor booms reshaping entire industries. So what kind of year has it been for Asia and what's the outlook for 2026? Monaco's Ryoma Takahashi in Tokyo spoke with Stefan Angrick, senior economist at Moody's analytics, to find out.
Stefan Angrick
Overall, our view is that the years ahead will be more difficult for the Asia Pacific region as a whole. 2025 was looking pretty good because we had a sort of sugar rush from export front loading ahead of US tariff hikes. So because of that, the 2025 numbers look pretty good, but that sugar rush is now fading. So growth going into 2026, 2027 is going to slow. That is true both for Asia Pacific and for Japan. The picture across the region is very uneven though. The economies that plug into the AI cycle, like Taiwan, Korea, they're going to do better than the average economies where domestic demand is pretty weak, which includes Japan, but also China, they're going to struggle. But overall, I would say the main problem facing the Asia Pacific region really is the deteriorating trade environment in the years ahead. So that is going to weigh on growth in the next couple of years.
Chris Chermack
As you also point out in your.
Stefan Angrick
Report, economic growth in Asia Pacific region is expected to slow in 2026. What are the main reasons behind this slow?
Chris Chermack
And could you explain a bit more.
Stefan Angrick
About how it is linked to exports? The main factor behind that slowdown is weakening export growth. The Asia Pacific region has always grown through exports. Exports have always been the sort of growth engine for a lot of economies in this part of the world and the pandemic has only reinforced that. But domestic demand has been pretty poor. Domestic demand was already weak before the pandemic and it's only become weaker since the pandemic. So in some ways you could argue that Asia Pacific is very export dependent. So we're now in a world where that export dependence becomes a vulnerability. U.S. tariffs are increasing. On the other hand, a lot of countries are also increasingly competing with China for market share. So export led growth is going to become more difficult from here on out. And we think exports will slow. With slowing exports, homegrown demand becomes more important, but there just isn't a whole lot of homegrown demand. Consumption investment spending across most of the Asia Pacific region is pretty weak. So weaker export growth plus weak domestic demand just gives you weaker growth overall. That's why we think growth will slow from here on out.
Chris Chermack
I think we can say that the.
Stefan Angrick
Key word for Asia's economy in 2025 was AI. Some also argue that the current AI and semiconductor boom looks like a bubble.
Chris Chermack
So how long do you think this.
Stefan Angrick
Boom can continue as a driver of growth for Asia and for Taiwan in particular, Especially for places like Taiwan, because the Taiwanese economy is just so geared towards the production of advanced semiconductors, electronics more broadly. You could take the data on global chip sales and compare that to virtually all of the macroeconomic data in Taiwan, and it would look almost exactly the same. In the last couple of years, Taiwan has done pretty well because there have been several waves that have pushed the global demand for chips and electronics more broadly. Our November baseline forecast was for Taiwan to grow 6.4% this year. And that is in real terms, that's an inflation adjusted terms. And it looks like we will actually need to revise our forecast up because the Q3 GDP data that we've gotten for Taiwan was looking incredibly strong. So it looks like Taiwan will grow more than 7% in 2025, which is probably the fastest growing economy this year. It's growing even faster than India at that rate. Now the concern is, of course, where is all of this going to go from here on out? And that's your question, right? That is very hard to say because the AI boom is about an emerging technology. So ultimately business models still need to be worked out. Right now it's very hard to say what is going to be profitable in the future, what is not going to be profitable. But I think it is fair to say that at the very least, growth from here on out will slow and at some point it will peak. And if you take this one step further, if you, if you're more pessimistic, you could also say that at some point things will go into reverse. So chip shipments will fall, which would also then suggest that maybe Taiwan, Taiwanese GDP would fall for a year or two. And finally for US In Japan, 2025.
Chris Chermack
Was a year when we heard the.
Stefan Angrick
Phrase weak yen thousands of times.
Chris Chermack
So how long do you think this.
Stefan Angrick
Trend is likely to continue? The problem with. So the reason I would struggle. Answering that question is because the yen is unreasonably weak. It's very common to say that the yen is weak because of low interest rates in Japan. Intuitively, that sort of makes sense, right? If interest rates abroad are higher, people move money abroad, that weakens the Japanese yen. It's very logical, it's very easy to understand, right? But if you actually look at the data and you compare the spread in interest rates between Japan and the rest of the world against the yen exchange rate, what you would see is that the yen is now much, much weaker than rate spreads suggest. Interest rates in Japan have gone up over the last 1, 2, 3 years because the BOJ has started tightening and inflation has been pretty sticky. So that gets priced into rates, right? Interest rates abroad have come down, so the spread in interest rates between Japan and the rest of the world has actually narrowed considerably. Going by the rate spread, the yen should be somewhere around 120 to the dollar. But instead, as you know, it's trading around 150 at the moment. So it's much, much weaker than rate spreads and economic fundamentals would suggest. We think a lot of that has to do with speculative trading. So it's hard to predict when exactly wash out. In our forecast, we expect the yen to appreciate gradually, but not as fast as I think many policymakers and people in Japan would like it to.
Chris Chermack
Ryoma Takahashi in Tokyo, there in conversation with Stefan Angrick of Moody's Analytics. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Let's turn now to the world of the Vatican, because Donald Trump is not the only American to have had a big year in office. It has also been the first year for Pope Leo, the first American to lead the Catholic Church. And here to give us her verdict on how he's done on the job is Juliet Lindley, former Vatican correspondent and broadcaster, joining us from Zurich, our studio there. Happy New Year, Juliet.
Juliet Lindley
Happy New Year, Chris. Schones jahes. How do you say that in German?
Chris Chermack
That was perfect. Schones Frohes Neues actually is the best Neues. Back to you in Zurich as well. We're very excited for this year, but we are going to look back, first of all, because you know, there's gonna be plenty of time to discuss 2026, Juliet. But I want to know. I want to know how Pope Leo has done. Let's just. Can you give him, like, a report card?
Juliet Lindley
I can absolutely give him a report card, but just before, because it is the 1st of January, you do know that it's The World Day of Peace. And Leo has said we're gonna focus on unarmed and disarming peace. So I just thought I'd pop that in there for you, Chris. You know, this is exactly in line with his vision of rejecting violence, rejecting wars, and promoting peace through love and through justice. So I just thought I would put that in there.
Chris Chermack
That is because it is the 1st of January. Totally fair enough. And that is his theme, as you will. So in some ways, I mean, it would be a little harsh maybe to give him a report card on whether he has brought peace, but let's give him a report card on his messaging. How's that?
Juliet Lindley
Well, I think he's done an amazing job. Can I say that? I mean, he took on the papacy in May and he took it over from a pretty firebrand pope. Can we say that? And he's already managed to sort of of steer this papacy into calmer waters, perhaps. He's far more balanced. He's perhaps a bit less charismatic. He's a mathematician actually, Chris. You know that he's born in Chicago and he studied math at Villanova. So he's very sort of linear in his thinking and in his acting and in his speaking. And especially in his speaking because Pope Francis predecessor was such a worry to his press office because he would so often go off track, off script and say things which would have them then having to backpedal and try to make amends for what he was saying.
Chris Chermack
Chris, it's very interesting actually to hear you say that, that he's brought some more calm. Cuz at the same time, I'm just curious if you get the sense that he's maybe more political at the same time. Measured perhaps, yes, in his words. But he has engaged in politics, he's even engaged with Donald Trump.
Juliet Lindley
Certainly, certainly he's not shying away from, especially from, let's say, defending the plight of migrants in the. So he has on numerous occasions mentioned that every country does have a right to determine who, how and when people enter, but they need to treat people humanely. He has specifically asked the Trump administration to respect human beings and its deportation policies. He also called out JD Vance early on in, when he was still a cardinal. Actually, that was around February of last year. And just because J.D. vance was kind of trying to use Catholic doctrine or Christianity to say, you've got to first look after your own before you look after the foreigner. And Pope Leo then and there said, no, you've got to look at the Good Samaritan, for instance. So he's been Extremely active if you want, although in a diplomatic manner, speaking out against Trump, of course, taking a stance with regard to the Middle East. He keeps saying he's in favor of a two state solution. However, he does say that he's in communication both with the US and with Israel regarding sustainable peace. This is one of his mottos, sustainable peace in the region. We heard it when he was in Turkey just last month. We heard it when he was in Lebanon. And he is constantly calling out to be a bridge builder to get people to just put violence and conflict behind them. Tall order, isn't it, Chris?
Chris Chermack
It's absolutely a tall order at the moment. And just tell us a little more about that first international trip, because I'm curious. That too. You obviously talked about it with a on this show at the time. But now stepping back, looking at how he did, what did you make of his visit to Turkey and Lebanon? His choice and just the approach, how.
Juliet Lindley
He went about was a success in so many ways. First of all, he didn't choose to go if you want. It was Pope Francis who had planned this. This was a trip first to Nicaea, which is modern day Iznik and that is in Turkey. And the idea was to go and mark the the 1700th Council of Nicaea, which was a ecumenical moment in the Christian church, and then to go on to Lebanon. So he didn't choose it, but he did choose to continue, if you want, along Francis path. And he did so with great aplomb. He was applauded, if you want, for certainly bringing issues to the table, bringing again his peace building motto. People were looking to see is this going to be a leader worthy of the global stage? And I think he did do a good job of bringing the world's attention to his papacy. So he did keep the Vatican, if you want, in the forefront in the headlines, at least for those six days of his trip to the Middle East.
Chris Chermack
Now, one other aspect I'm curious about, which you also saw a bit on this trip. He reached out to young people, gave a speech in Lebanon, to young people in Lebanon. That's something that I suppose Pope Francis did as well. He was seen as this sort of progressive pope, maybe trying to appeal to the young. Has Pope Leo continued that? I mean, one of the last things of the year that he did, aside from of course a Christmas homily and all of that, he offered this video message for a dj.
Juliet Lindley
Exactly. Let's just touch upon that. It's gone viral and it's a DJ priest who's called Father Guillaume or Guillermo Peixiotto. He's Portuguese from Porto. He opened one of his DJ sets with a message from the Pope. And you've got the strobe lights and you've got the thumping music. And then you see interviews with this Father Guillermo, and he's saying how he took DJ lessons because he wants to be a good dj. He's a perfectionist, and he wants to reach out to young people. He's quite young himself. And he says, God is on the dance floor with us, Chris. He says musicians can change the world. So can young people. And so that is a way to maybe bring Jesus to the young people. And speaking of that, yes, Pope Leo is making a big deal about reaching out to young people because they're the future. And this is a church that is hemorrhaging, especially in the Western world faithful, rather than gaining them.
Chris Chermack
Well, just finally, Juliet, I'm curious, as you also look into 2026, whether Pope Leo is kind of following in that progressive trend of Pope Francis, how he's done on that front. I guess not just in terms of bringing, you know, talking about world peace, but also within the Catholic Church, within the Vatican. How progressive is he?
Juliet Lindley
Well, let's say he's certainly reaching out to the different, I don't want to call them factions, but the different parts within the Catholic Church that were very pulled apart and polarized by Pope Francis. So he is showing signs of being perhaps slightly less progressive than Francis was. He certainly is showing that he wants to support the Latin Mass, which Pope Francis was, was absolutely against. He was all about the vernacular. Also in his garments, you can see that he's embracing the more traditional robes, which Pope Francis absolutely didn't want to wear. And in general, he's reaching out to a certain extent to the traditionalists. Let's remember that especially the American conservative part of the Catholic Church were really unhappy with Pope Francis. And it's clear that Leo is making attempts to bring them back into the fold somehow.
Chris Chermack
Juliet Nilly, former Vatican correspondent, joining us from Zurich. Thank you very much. This is the Globalist. Let's turn to the world of events now because set piece gatherings have become a place for diplomacy, even in a time where multilateralism is strained. And the year starts off with the World Economic Forum in Davos, at least that's the biggest one of the start of the year. And joining me to talk about it is Monocle's executive producer, senior foreign correspondent, global traveler, and Davos regular Carlotta Rebelo. How's that for a title?
Carlotta Rebelo
Carlotta wow, you've really tripled my title there. Thank you, Chris. Maybe that's the news I needed this year.
Chris Chermack
So before we get to 2026, I did want to talk about one of your final trips for 2025, because you were in Hong Kong and that was special. Your first time?
Carlotta Rebelo
Yes, not only my first time in Hong Kong, but my first time in Asia. Can you believe it? I've traditionally always traveled more towards LATAM and of course in Europe and the African continent. So somehow I had this big Asia shaped gap in my global map. So it was really amazing to be in Hong Kong and to, you know, after years of covering some of the stories out of the region on the Urbanist and beyond, to actually see it for myself. And it was an urbanism conference and real estate trade show called mipim. Listeners might remember the main event which happens in Cannes every March. Now. This was the Asia offshoot. So MIPIM Asia, a bit smaller, around 400, 500 people, but coming from the region, which was really great because a lot of them might not have the budget to send teams all the way to Europe later in the year. So it was great to speak to so many people working to make better cities and with exciting projects in the APAC and ASEAN region. Now, it coincided the start of the conference and my trip also off the back of the devastating fire in the housing complex in Taipo and also ahead of the local election. So there were a lot of news threads up in the air to follow. So it was quite a timely trip, Chris.
Chris Chermack
It was, absolutely. And it is so interesting how a lot of these events kind of move their entire operations to a different part of the world in order to do what they do there, like MIPIM is doing in Asia. But when it comes to Davos, which we want to speak about now, that is the one that brings everyone to Davos and to Switzerland. And just put this into some context for us because I think it is an event that is almost hard to really understand unless you've been there. I've been there once before with you a few years ago. And I think just what made it so unique for me was the fact that just everybody's there. You run into so many people on.
Carlotta Rebelo
The streets, the amount of people that you'll just run into, you know, on the way to get a coffee inside, main venue, the annual meeting venue, you know, as you're looking for a charger. And you'll realize you're sitting with people that are either politicians you recognize or people you admire. Everyone is in town, and this is just the official accredited people. And then you have double, if not more attendees that are not accredited. But the way Davos Week works is that you have the annual meeting where all the world leaders and things, and this is a secured sort of area across three or four different buildings. But then the entire town also becomes Davos Week for the World Economic Forum. And you'll have nations that put up their pavilions, or as they call them, their houses, so very famous. You have Ukraine House, which has had a really strong program ever since the start of the war because it's both cultural and political. You have also the big tech companies. Meta usually has a huge. A huge house as well. And it's interesting because, because those are public, anyone can attend. They will have certain events that you need to apply for, and even though it's public, they will scrutinize who attends. But for the vast majority, anyone can go. And it's this idea that they pull from the official program of accredited people so that everyone gets a chance to hear these conversations. And the houses are really special because it shows you two things. Which nations or which companies are investing big and betting on 2026, in this case, in being their year. And you can see that by the size of the house, the position on the promenade, if it's on the offskirts or closer to the annual meeting, that tells you a lot. And some companies traditionally, or some nations more rarely will even have more than one house. They will have two or three pavilions, which in that case, that tells you, okay, this is where the big money is. So it really is an intense week and really hard to describe unless you've been there. And I feel like. Like after five years, there's still new things that I find out every year.
Chris Chermack
And so going into this year, then new things to find out. I think the atmosphere of this one is going to be interesting. What's your expectation from that? As I mentioned at the outset, multilateralism strain, Donald Trump, et cetera, et cetera. A year of Donald Trump changing the international order. How does that affect something like Davos?
Carlotta Rebelo
Well, it affects quite a lot. And the theme this year is the spirit of dialogue, which is the guiding theme, which is quite ironic, obviously, obviously, given everything you've just described. But it is about navigating this contested geopolitical landscape, I guess the risks of AI for local economies as well. But on the subject of Trump, just for you to understand how much his presence looms over Davos. And last year he zoomed in or it was a video link into the annual meeting. It was shortly after his inauguration, I think two days after that, the World Economic Forum was underway. So there was rumors for a bit that he might fly in. He just ended up video calling. But he has in the past threatened to not attend. Oh, Davos is over. They don't need me for you to understand just how much of an impact he has. The World Economic Forum has given assurances, the organization to Donald Trump's administration that overly woke in between commas here, inverted commas woke topics would not be part of the official program in order to make sure that Donald Trump attends. Now, the White House has confirmed that Donald Trump will attend, but there is all these hints of negotiations behind the scenes to ensure that last minute that doesn't change. Because Donald Trump attending is not really just about the U.S. even though, yes, the U.S. has a huge impact on the world, but if Donald Trump doesn't attend, it opens the door for other significant players not to attend. And that's what the World Economic Forum wants to avoid. We need to remember that the institution itself had a bit of a, I wouldn't say issue, but a leadership cloud of doubt cast over it. And this was when they got the new leader in place and there were allegations surrounding Klaus Schwab at the time and it prompted an investigation. So it really is a Davos comeback. And having Trump there ensures that the conversation about does Davos still make sense perhaps starts to die down a bit.
Chris Chermack
It does. Cuz as you say, everyone else will be there because they'll want to get a piece of Donald Trump. But just finally, Carlotta moving the rest of the year, there's obviously gonna be a lot happening. And I always find these events interesting for the kind of news they make. I'm reminded the next one, Munich security conference comes up. That's where JD Vance made his big stand last year. What's catching your eye? What are you particularly excited for?
Carlotta Rebelo
Well, on a completely different note, I think we'll be very excited to have the Winter Games at Milano Cortina. And listeners who stayed with us during our coverage of the Summer Games in Paris knows we do love the soft power angle, meeting some of those people on the ground on top, of course, of the amazing athlet. So I'm looking forward to that. And then also again, back in March, I'll be heading over to Cannes once again for MIPM, the property and real estate trade show. 20,000 people that descend upon the French Riviera. Then to discuss the big global trends. I'LL be taking part on the pre summit called Housing Matters, which I think it comes at a time that is extremely relevant because we need to be talking about the housing crisis. We need to be talking about how to ensure people have access to affordable homes across Europe. The problem is only getting wor and a recent report actually linked the housing crisis with the rise of extremist far right views and basically inferring that one of the only ways to tackle the rise in populism is actually by ensuring people are given homes and that we tackle the housing crisis. So that's gonna be a hugely important debate going into 2026.
Chris Chermack
Carlotta Rebelo, thank you very much for joining us and good luck in all of your travels for 2026. That is all the time we have for this special New Year's Day edition Globalist. It was produced by Monica Lillis and our studio manager was Jack Jewers. There is a special edition of the Briefing coming up at midday in London. The Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'm Chris Chermack. Happy New Year everyone and thanks to all of you for another year of listening.
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Podcast: The Globalist (Monocle Radio)
Air Date: January 1, 2026
Host: Chris Chermack
Length: ~37 minutes
Summary by Segment with Key Quotes & Timestamps
This special New Year’s Day edition of The Globalist provides broad reflections on the international landscape heading into 2026. Anchored by Chris Chermack, the episode features in-depth segments on:
The episode’s tone is measured, insightful, and forward-looking, offering listeners an engaging panorama of the world’s pressing challenges and the personalities shaping 2026.
Guest: Gorana Gurgi, Monocle Security Correspondent
[03:05 – 11:50]
On Europe’s autonomy:
“At the highest level, the EU is trying to answer one core question: whether it’s able to build the military capability and industrial depth to deter Russia, and to act more autonomously as US support becomes less predictable.”
— Gorana Gurgi [03:50]
On the challenge of unity:
“Europe either learns to buy together or basically it falls back into national silos.”
— Gorana Gurgi [07:10]
On Franco-German infighting over fighter jets:
“Who should build them, who gets to build them, who gets the spoils? ... There are such nationalist concerns still, even if in theory everyone in Europe agrees that they need to work together.”
— Chris Chermack [07:45]
On lessons from Ukraine and Eastern Flank:
“We see Ukraine continually teaching Europeans how to be resilient, how to innovate at the pace of the battlefield…”
— Gorana Gurgi [09:41]
Guest: Stefan Angrick, Moody’s Analytics (Tokyo)
[12:43 – 19:13]
On the coming slowdown:
“2025 was looking pretty good because we had a sort of sugar rush from export front loading ahead of US tariff hikes... but that sugar rush is now fading. So growth going into 2026, 2027 is going to slow.”
— Stefan Angrick [13:12]
On structural export dependence:
“Asia Pacific is very export dependent. So we're now in a world where that export dependence becomes a vulnerability.”
— Stefan Angrick [14:25]
On Taiwan’s exceptional growth:
“It looks like Taiwan will grow more than 7% in 2025, which is probably the fastest growing economy this year. It's growing even faster than India at that rate.”
— Stefan Angrick [16:38]
On Japan’s currency conundrum:
“If you... compare the spread in interest rates between Japan and the rest of the world against the yen exchange rate... the yen is now much, much weaker than rate spreads suggest.”
— Stefan Angrick [17:45]
Guest: Juliet Lindley, Former Vatican Correspondent (Zurich)
[19:58 – 27:17]
On Pope Leo’s style:
“He's far more balanced. He's perhaps a bit less charismatic… He's a mathematician actually, Chris!”
— Juliet Lindley [21:04]
On his political interventions:
“He has specifically asked the Trump administration to respect human beings and its deportation policies.”
— Juliet Lindley [22:08]
On his viral appeal to youth:
“God is on the dance floor with us, Chris. He says musicians can change the world. So can young people.”
— Juliet Lindley [25:14]
On Church politics:
“He's certainly reaching out to the different parts within the Catholic Church that were very pulled apart and polarized by Pope Francis... making attempts to bring them back into the fold.”
— Juliet Lindley [26:27]
Guest: Carlotta Rebelo, Monocle Executive Producer and Davos Regular
[28:05 – 36:13]
On the feel of Davos:
“Everyone is in town, and this is just the official accredited people... the entire town also becomes Davos Week.”
— Carlotta Rebelo [30:12]
On Trump and WEF:
“The World Economic Forum has given assurances... to Donald Trump's administration that overly woke topics would not be part of the official program in order to make sure that Donald Trump attends.”
— Carlotta Rebelo [33:24]
On the significance of event spaces:
“Which nations or companies are investing big and betting on 2026... you can see that by the size of the house, the position on the promenade...”
— Carlotta Rebelo [31:54]
On the European housing debate:
“A recent report actually linked the housing crisis with the rise of extremist far right views... one of the only ways to tackle the rise in populism is actually by ensuring people are given homes and that we tackle the housing crisis.”
— Carlotta Rebelo [35:54]
| Time | Speaker | Quote | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:50 | Gorana Gurgi | “EU is trying to answer one core question: whether it’s able to build... to deter Russia, and to act more autonomously... as US Support becomes less predictable.” | | 13:12 | Stefan Angrick | “2025 was looking pretty good... but that sugar rush is now fading. Growth... is going to slow.” | | 16:38 | Stefan Angrick | “Taiwan will grow more than 7% in 2025... fastest growing economy this year.” | | 21:04 | Juliet Lindley | “He's a mathematician actually... He’s very sort of linear in his thinking and in his acting and in his speaking.” | | 22:08 | Juliet Lindley | “He has specifically asked the Trump administration to respect human beings...” | | 25:14 | Juliet Lindley | “God is on the dance floor with us, Chris. He says musicians can change the world. So can young people.” | | 33:24 | Carlotta Rebelo | “The World Economic Forum has given assurances... overly woke topics would not be part of the official program in order to make sure that Donald Trump attends.” |
This episode is indispensable for anyone seeking a sharp, panoramic start to 2026. The blend of high-order analysis and on-the-ground insight helps make sense of what’s at stake—from the halls of the EU, to the boom-and-bust economies of Asia, to the Vatican, and the snowy streets of Davos.
Europe’s defense, Asia’s economic balancing act, the Church’s path under Pope Leo, and the global gathering circus all reflect a world in search of its footing—a world where 2026 could be the year strategies and hopes are finally put to the test.