← The Globalist
The Globalist
As Iran protests continue, is US intervention likely? Plus: Myanmar’s election and the fall of Saks
00:58:58
Loading summary
Transcript93 lines
- [00:04]
A
Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 12 January 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Hello, this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, A rights group say deaths from the protests in Iran have reached over 500. We'll examine the latest and look at what might happen next. Myanmar has voted in the second round of an election widely seen to be neither free nor fair. We'll have analysis. Donald Trump is ramping up the rhetoric around a potential military takeover of Greenland. We'll delve into what that means for NATO.
- [01:45]
B
Then a freezing cold leaves foreign tourists stranded in Lapland, Swedish boots on the ground in Greenland and Norwegian ski jumpers. Sartorial cheating. Hello, I'm Urgel's Helsinki correspondent Petri Burtsov with the latest from the Nordics.
- [02:01]
A
Plus, the parent company of historical retail outfit Saks is considering bankruptcy. Our founder and chairman Tyler Brulee gives us his take on the failure of the 158 year old store and what it means for bricks and mortar luxury markets. And we'll discuss the winners and losers at last night's Golden Globes. That's all ahead here on the on the Globalist live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Donald Trump's administration threatens legal action against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, prompting a rare Republican backlash over political pressure on US Interest rates. Hong Kong's high court is set to hear final pleas before sentencing pro democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai in a national security case that could mean life in prison. And Japan's Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi is weighing a snap general election as political and economic tensions with China intensify. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, Iran has entered a third week of nationwide protests that began over economic hardship but have since turned into a direct challenge to the Islamic Republic. Demonstrations have spread to all provinces. Communications remain heavily restricted and security forces have responded with arrests, killings and televised confessions. US President Donald Trump says Washington is ready to help as Tehran warns of retaliation if the United States intervenes. Well, I'm joined now by Nega Anger, who is a former advisor to the State Department and White House National Security Council and now a fellow at the Wilson Center's Middle East Program and Monocle's foreign and editor, Alexis Self. Welcome to you both. Many thanks for joining us this morning. Negar, I wonder if we could start with you just for an update on how those protests have developed over the weekend, these horrific figures being thrown out, 500 people possibly morning and thanks for having me on.
- [04:10]
C
Yes, absolutely. I mean, this is the largest nationwide uprising since 2022. Thursday and Friday, which is essentially the weekend in Iran, were the biggest nights so far. And it was surprising and fascinating to watch that some places like government buildings were set on fire and these almost near total Internet blackouts intended to blunt the coordination and protests are horrific because that is when the killings begin. But the people are tired and the people are continuing to voice their frustration with the system because as you rightly noted in the beginning, although it started as economic, it is an overhaul of grievances against the current regime.
- [05:05]
A
I mean, Alexis, what actually do they want specifically? They've been chanting all sorts of things.
- [05:11]
D
Yeah, I think, as Nega said, we've moved on from this being just an expression of dissent, economic dissatisfaction and a protest over inflation to swell to become, you know, more generally about dissatisfaction with the government, about the social contract and that big nebulous thing, the future. I think, you know, especially young people in Iran and as we saw in 2022, feel like they don't really have a stake in the Islamic Republic or are dissatisfied with the way that it's going. And there is the sense that this is a kind of watershed moment. And indeed, I think that's why the large scale crackdown which as Neger said, has arrived, it appears perhaps wasn't launched as soon as it might have been done in the past. Because I think the Islamic Republic is in a more tenuous position than it has been perhaps since the Iran Iraq war in the 1980s. But we were talking before we came on air, whether that still actually means that a collapse or its end is near is another question. And even a question of whether that that is an optimal, you know, result at this moment.
- [06:32]
A
Nneka, what has Washington said and what options are on the table for the United States? What could they possibly do?
- [06:41]
C
You know, it's a timely question. I think there is quite a bit of chatter right now overnight where we've heard that Tehran has apparently reached out to the United States looking to potentially open up nucle talks. Again, we're seeing Oman classic sort of back channel mediation with the Iranian government to avoid any potential miscalculations. But what Washington right now is doing is they will hold a national security meeting with the President early this week. You know, some sort of smaller scale conversations are happening at the National Security Council by Tuesday to review potential options, both kinetic and non kinetic tools. I think a lot of the questions during that meeting will look at, not necessarily, you know, the question of whether they're going to act, but you know, what that scale is going to look like. So they will, you know, the options on the table. In terms of kinetic, you could see sort of a symbolic strike on regime infrastructure, sending a signal that could galvanize protesters or can deflate them because it could look like a one off. There could be a broader salvo on IRGC assets, degrading capacity, but obviously that won't stop the besieged or the security forces from repressing the people. So it could risk a messy escalation. There could be a decapitation strike that could trigger a race for power that could leave, unfortunately an IRGC dominated successor who is willing to do any deal to keep their wealth in control. But obviously, you know, within that sort of kinetic view, in terms of posturing, unlike In June of 2025's operation, the US carrier presence is thinner. There are no carriers currently stationed in the Gulf per open source reporting. It's in the Caribbean right now. You know, there is reporting that there are no major force movement yet. So unless assets are repositioned, you know, a real sustained campaign seems unlikely. And obviously the Gulf is hesitant to use their country as a base out of fear of, you know, retribution on sort of the non kinetic front that will be presented within these meetings. You know, you'll probably hear a bit in terms of potential cyber attacks against the irgc, the besieged, the security forces disabling electronic systems that the regime is using to cut the Internet and phones, information operations, you know, further sanctions enforcement and potentially practical help to keep the Iranians connected by funding and legally enabling VPNs, circumvention tools, secure messaging and cloud backups and contingency links like Starlink or satellite support to help protesters continue coordination and obviously evidence gathering. And in terms of human rights, in terms of sanctions, you can see potential further targeted human rights sanctions under the MASA act designations in the US but in coordination with the G7, EU and UK.
- [10:11]
A
You mentioned the possibility of decapitation and Alexis I wonder if the ayatollah does go, how serious is the son of the deposed shah being taken as a potential replacement?
- [10:23]
D
Well, I can't speak for the the people of Iran, but I think the shah's son has been a kind of comic figure, at least outside the country for a while. And obviously there are kind of splintered groups within the country and without calling for the regime's end. And a few of them see him as a viable successor. Lots of them don't. I think that, you know, part of the reason why, as Nega said, you know, other countries in the region are so cautious because, you know, first of all, they're wary of a, you know, wider regional conflagration. But, you know, especially what a prolonged period of internal unrest, you know, perhaps even civil war, though obviously too soon to posit on that, but would be like it in such a huge country as Iran. And how destabilizing that would be not just for the Middle east, but the whole world at the same time. Given Trump and Israel's actions last year, would we be surprised if and Israel said that during their bombing campaign of last year that they did have the whereabouts of Khomeini and they were thinking of taking him out? Would we be surprised if they took this opportunity to do so? Probably not.
- [11:53]
A
Alexis, thank you very much indeed. That's Alexis Self, Monocle's foreign editor, and Nega Anga, who is former advisor to the State Department and a fellow at the Wilson Centre's Middle East Program. This is the Globalist. It is 811 in Zurich. That's 711 here in London. Yesterday, Myanmar held the second phase of its first nationwide election since the 2021 military coup. What the generals describe as a return to democratic rule has been dismissed by the United nations and human rights groups as a tightly controlled exercise with opposition parties barred, large swathes of the country excluded from voting, and reports of civilians being pressured to take part. With civil war still ongoing and resistance groups in charge of parts of the country, the key question is whether this vote changes anything inside Myanmar or simply deepens instability for the country and for the region. Well, I'm joined now by Dr. Ronan Lee, who's an academic and the author of Myanmar's Rohingya Identity History and Hate Speech. Ronan, it's always lovely to have you on the show. Can you tell us, please, what unfolded over the weekend with the selection the second round on Sunday.
- [13:11]
E
So this is the second round of a three round. It's a phase of elections, so it's designed to ensure that there is not voting on just one day across the country because the military junta would not be able to manage that. So they're trying to diminish the opportunities for people to disrupt the election. Although it should be noted that this election's taking place in only about half the country. Half the country is controlled by opposition groups. So this is an election been held, held by a weak military junta. It's an unpopular election. I mean, the people aren't enthusiastic when there have been enthusiastic elections in Myanmar. So when elections are free, as they were in 1990 and 2015 and 2020, one of the key markers of that is that there's queues outside the polling booths when the polls open. I was in the country in 2015, and there were long queues of people before the polls opened, wanting to cast their vote and to participate what they understood to be a movement towards a more democratic country. We haven't seen that in either phase one or phase two. I mean, all the reports are that there's a subdued feeling in any of those places where elections are taking place. People are voting because they're fearful that if they don't vote, that that will be a big problem for them. There's electronic voting this time. So there's this sense that the military will absolutely, certainly know how people have cast. Have cast their votes. It's a very unfortunate election for the people of Myanmar. I mean, normally these elections would be cause for celebration. This is not a movement towards democracy. It's quite the opposite. It's about entrenching this military junta in power.
- [15:04]
A
And yet, as you say, they are quite weak. And I wonder how significant a challenge to the regime the resistant groups are.
- [15:12]
E
Well, a very big challenge to the regime. And what's going on with this election, these elections, all about changing the international attitude towards Myanmar. The junta understands that it's not going to be able to change hearts and minds within Myanmar. I mean, they've lost the public. I mean, it was an unpopular coup in 2021. It's been enforced with brutal violence since that time. Half the country's under the control of opposition groups, and that's of territory. I mean, I think. I think if you were to look at Myanmar today and you were to visit Myanmar today, if you went overland from any of Myanmar's neighbors, I think nine out of 10 border crossings into Myanmar are not controlled by the military junta. They're controlled by opposition groups. So this is a very divided country. There's an ongoing civil war, and the junta is aware that in the Five years since the coup, it has not been able to embed its rules with the people of Myanmar that the people are not. They haven't stopped fighting them.
- [16:15]
A
Yeah.
- [16:15]
E
And there's no indication that they're going to stop fighting them. So what's left for the junta is that they've got to try and change international attitudes in the hope that they can maybe squeeze the opposition's access to funds and to arms.
- [16:28]
A
You mentioned the neighbors, and I wonder what this means for Bangladesh, particularly with pressure around Rohingya displacement and a spillover towards Cox's Bazaar.
- [16:37]
E
Well, Bangladesh is. So, so there's no voting in any of the, in any of the zones close to the border with Bangladesh. So all of the border zones with Bangladesh, all of the, that entire frontier is controlled by, by opposition groups. So there's no voting in that area at all. There'll be not, not a single vote cast between the border of Bangladesh and I would say, 200 km from that border into Myanmar. So Bangladesh at least will, will understand in and of itself, won't change the dynamic on the ground, but it also ensures that nothing changes. I mean, Bangladesh is hosting over 1 million Rohingya refugees. These are Myanmar nationals. They've been in that country since, in large part in that country since 2017. And instability in Myanmar means they're not going home. I mean, what the Rohingya need to be able to return home to their ancestral lands in Myanmar is peace within Myanmar and the military out of power. And neither of those things are likely to happen because of this election.
- [17:46]
A
How concerned is India about instability along its very long border with Myanmar?
- [17:52]
E
So India's actually been very concerned about this election. It's made statements that its government have made statements that they don't think the election's free and fair. I mean, this is in stark contrast to other neighbors, China, for instance, and neighbors and asean, close ASEAN neighbours as well, have supported the election, have talked about the election as a positive thing. I mean, I think India understands that this election will do exactly what the opposition are saying it's going to do, which is lead to more bloodshed within Myanmar. It won't settle anything. It will simply muddy the waters. So what you see at the end of the election is that the military junta will then claim that they have taken steps towards democracy and as a result, that, that, that people should stop fighting them. That won't happen because it has not been a free and fair election. They've jailed all of their opposition critics. I mean, they've, they've jailed the the, the, the people who won election to office in 2020 and they've created an election law that means that criticizing the election lands you 10 years in jail. I mean there's 200 people been jail, been jailed for criticizing the election. The military junta systematically dismantled what, what we would regard as the usual things associated with, with a democratic structure. There's no freedom of expression within the country, there's no free press, it's not a free judiciary. So I think India understands that this election will simply embed military rule or it's an attempt to embed military rule and it won't settle anything.
- [19:32]
A
And finally, Ronan, I wonder if there's any possibility of outside intervention and if so, where that come from.
- [19:40]
E
I think none. I think there's no opposite. No, there's no. The west has no stomach for intervention within Myanmar. I mean it's been clear since 2021 that's not going to happen. ASEAN, the regional body, would rather this wasn't happening. China, the local behemoth. I mean China has one priority in Myanmar which is to avoid state collapse. And, and beyond that, China is not concerned about instability within Myanmar or the state of the country so long as it avoids collapse. And as things have been going on since 2021, this massive violence within the country, a civil war within the country, but the country hasn't yet collapsed. Now this might all change if we start to see large numbers of refugees crossing the borders into China and Thailand and India and Bangladesh. If that starts happening again, that might change. But in the short to medium term, I don't see any stomach from any foreign power for more direct intervention within Myanmar.
- [20:46]
A
Dr. Ronan Lee, academic and author of Myanmar's Rohingya Genocide, Identity History and Hate Speech. Thank you very much for your insights. Now still to come on the program.
- [20:58]
F
And the Golden Globe goes to.
- [21:00]
A
You want to help me out?
- [21:01]
G
Yeah.
- [21:01]
F
Yeah.
- [21:03]
A
Hamnet. We'll have a rundown of who won what at last night's Golden Globes. This is the globalist craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. Well, let's continue now with today's newspapers and joining me from our Paris studio is Alexandre Kushner, who is a French journalist, a political Analyst and the former editor of La Dit un Le Shift. Alexandre, many thanks for making the trek to the studio. Although you've got to admit it's very beautiful and lovely around there, isn't it?
- [22:09]
F
It is. It's a wonderful place to be around any time of the year.
- [22:12]
A
Yeah. Now, not so much the budget. I love this. The quote is. It's an utter murder show. Tell us who's saying this and why.
- [22:23]
F
Well, that quote is from the Economist, which had a lead paper just a couple days back looking at what's happening political in France. And let's just say France has no budget, but it could have another snap election. For three years, France has run a deficit of over 5% of GDP and it failed even to pass a budget for 2026. In December, the government rolled over the 2025 budget into 2026 because nothing says we're open for the future like having last year's budget. And last Friday, the Budget Commission failed yet again to agree on a budget proposal. Parliament's debates this week will likely lead to a dead end. And the Economist writes, the budgetary impasse is one symptom of a deeper malady, a severe case of political collective uselessness. And let's be honest, from here on the ground, that's kind of true. In 2024, after the far right Ramblement Nationale won The European Parliament, Mr. Macron foolishly called early legislative election, which left him with a small centrist minority and the impossibility to do do anything, really. So his two last PMs, Michel Barnier and Francois Bayroux, failed to pass a budget and were voted out by Parliament. And the current Prime Minister, Sebastien Le Cornu, could soon follow in these footsteps. He has one way of getting a budget. It's a special constitutional trick with which he can force the budget by making it a de facto confidence vote, hoping to get the assembly on his side. He already pledged he would not use that tool, but he's out of options and should he lose that vote, his government would fall. Both him and President Macron are clear this would trigger a snap elections. Sebastien Le Cornu, the current Prime Minister, says this would be a last resort and a failure on the Parliament side. He says he still hopes he can get a budget through. The only hiccup is that last Thursday several newspapers revealed that he has already asked the Interior Minister to be ready for a snap election that would take place mid March during the municipal elections. So no budget, three PMs in three years, and a new parliamentary election that would Deliver another hung party parliament or a far right led coalition. So, as the Economist called it, it's a merch show.
- [24:38]
A
What does Le Parisiennes say on this?
- [24:41]
F
Well, Le Parisien is actually making its round trying to figure out what the PM has asked the Interior Ministry. And it seems like they're very much, you know, sort of looking at having these new elections at the very same moment they're having municipal elections, which means the French people would have been voting each year for the past five years. That is a severe strain on their democratic institutions. Let's be honest. I think the French are kind of tired of voting. They'd rather have a working government. Right now.
- [25:12]
A
Let's look to Marine Le Pen and her moment of truth, her appeal trial that will of course shape the 2027 elections, although that could be several elections in the future.
- [25:23]
F
Yeah, you never know now these days in France. But it's true that starting tomorrow, the French far right leader Marine Le Pe faces a pivotal appeal in an embezzlement case that derailed her 2027 presidential bid. Just to recap, last year she was found guilty along with 24 former MEPs, assistants, accountants and the far right party as a legal entity. They were found guilty of using 4.1 million euros of ILU parliament funds to employ rassemblement national employees in France. Le Pen was sentenced to four years imprisonment, two of which were suspended a fine of 100,000 dol. But the ruling also banned her from standing for office for five years, evicting it immediately. And that's the very sentence she's hoping to overturn. But should the court uphold that sentence, and at this stage we have no way of knowing, but should the court uphold that sentence, she would have no choice but to let Jordan Bardela, the 30 year old party president, run for president. Credited with 35% of the votes, the far right party is already the frontrunner. But that sentence could change the political dynamics dynamics in this very important election. Because Marine Le Pen is a veteran of French politics. After taking over her father's party, she successfully rebranded it to try and hide its constitutive anti constitutionalism and anti Semitism. She ran three times for president. Her family name is a very powerful brand here in France. And her successor, who's a media trained party, Yaparachik, and an absentee mep, does not have the same track record record. But voters do not seem to hold that against him and both the far right figures. So Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardela are the two most popular politicians in France right now.
- [27:10]
A
But some party insiders are saying no one believes in her anymore.
- [27:14]
F
No, that's what the newspapers are saying. And I quote this from Les Ecot, who's a very serious journal here in France. They're saying that nobody believes in her. And actually a party insider has that quote, say her time is over. And for the first time, we might not have a Le Pen who's running. And that is a big news for France. The trial is expected to run until 20 February, with a verdict expected this summer. But, you know, this means that for the first time in over half a century, the Le Pen might not decide the fate of the far right in France. And so maybe not the fate of France after all.
- [27:52]
A
Quite extraordinary. Alexandre, I don't know about you, but I am absolutely, I absolutely loathe e bikes, e scooters, anything that threatens the safety of pedestrians. There you are, you're walking along the pavement, you think you're safe, and some wizzy thing goes by you and nearly takes you out. Now it seems you're not even going to be safe on the ski slopes.
- [28:16]
F
Yeah, modernity is catching up everywhere. So it's true that, you know, there are e bikes everywhere and now they could be e skis on the slopes. If you want to escape the gloomy news of, you know, whether or not France will be a far right country in the coming years, you might want to escape to the ski slope of the French Alps. You know, as France was hit by a massive snowstorm last week, you'd find some great snow and quite a few ski touring enthusiasts. So ski touring means walking uphill using textured skin stuck to the base of the skis. This allows you to gain access to really preserved landscape at the cost of very long efforts. Lots of sweats until now, because the Financial Times reports that it tested the E Skimo, the world's first power skis, made by a Swiss startup that aims to do for ski touring what e bikes did for cycling, in which you to actually loathe Eskimos, are a pair of freeride skis, each with a battery at the front and a motor at the back that form sort of a looped conveyor belt which pushes the ski forwards as you try to go up the slopes. And when you reach the top of your climb, you unclip the batteries and motors, you stow them in a backpack, and E ski mode apparently transforms into standard downhill skis. The company's website promises collabs can be four times faster for a third less effort. That's assuming you're willing to carry the 2.8kg of battery and motor on each ski and that you're willing to pay £4,200. And as a touring enthusiast myself, I really say, no, thank you. I'll stick with the clear silence of the mountains, you know, the bliss of pushing past your pain and the principle that you must earn your turns. But then again, I'm a French political analyst, you know, the pain for the gain sort of makes sense here in this country right now.
- [29:59]
A
Now let's scalp the Eskimo, I think. Alexandra Kushner, thank you very much indeed. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Donald Trump's administration has escalated pressure on the Federal Reserve by threatening to indict Chair Jerome Powell over comments about a building renovation. A senior Republican senator says the move undermines the Justice Department's credibility and vows to block future Fed nominations. Hong Kong's high court will hear mitigation pleas for Jimmy Lai, the final step before sentencing in a landmark national security trial. The verdict has drawn strong criticism from Western governments and could see the 78 year old jailed for life. And Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early election as soon as February, giving her a first national test since taking office. The move could complicate budget plans and deepen economic risks as Japan's dispute with China continues to grow. This is THE globalist. Stay tuned. It's 8:30 in Brussels, 5:30 in Nuuk. NATO is confronting perhaps its greatest internal test in 75 years. President Donald Trump has reiterated that the US needs Greenland for national security and is exploring every option, including military plans to gain control of the island, strong Greenlandic and Danish refusal and unified European support for sovereignty. That puts the alliance's core principle of collective defence or Article 5, under unprecedented strain. If a member threatens another member, what stops the entire NATO project from unraveling? Well, I'm joined now in the studio by the director of the International Security Programme at Chatham House, Dr. Marion Mesmer. And of course, this is your specialist subject, if you like, Marion, what has Trump said about Greenland most recently?
- [32:06]
F
Recently?
- [32:07]
G
Most recently, Trump said that the US Needs Greenland for its national security and that the US Essentially can't have Russia and China be neighbors of Greenland, which is really interesting because other NATO member states have not been able to replicate this intelligence that there's Russian and Chinese activity around Greenland. And of course, the other, the other part that makes that statement quite interesting is that Denmark and the US have a really long standing bilateral agreement that goes back to World War II even, that allows the US really wide ranging access to Greenland. So it's not quite clear exactly why Donald Trump feels so strongly that the US must own Greenland rather than working with Denmark on Greenland security.
- [32:55]
A
So Denmark has warned that a US attack would mean the end of NATO. I wonder if you'd just unpick that for us.
- [33:01]
G
Yeah, of course. I mean, it really goes back to what you were saying initially about the mutual defence agreement and states essentially being there for each other in case they are attacked. And that of course begins to really fall apart if the attacker is another alliance member. The idea behind NATO was that the states would stand side by side originally against the Soviet Union and now against Russia and other threats. But it's unthinkable that an alliance member would threaten another alliance member with use of force.
- [33:31]
A
And so does Europe have a strategy to prevent a U.S. attack?
- [33:35]
G
Well, I wouldn't go so far as to say that Europe has a strategy to prevent US attack. It's such an unprecedented thing to have happened that it's not something, it's not one of the scenarios for which NATO would have pre prepared plans. But I have been pretty impressed with the speed of response that we've seen from a lot of European countries. And a few European countries, including the UK and France, are even considering some sort of NATO deployment to Greenland, which would of course have a sort of double function. On the one hand, it would work as a signaling function to help call Donald Trump's bluff. Because if NATO is reinforcing Greenland and trying to assure security there, then the US can't say that Greenland security is threatened. But on the other hand, it of course also could fulfill a similar function to the Forward deployments on NATO, NATO's eastern flank, where you have troops present. And so if the US then decided to attack, it would essentially risk not just attacking Denmark, but also attacking other NATO member states.
- [34:38]
A
But this couldn't be done without the US agreement, surely within NATO, of course.
- [34:43]
G
I mean, all NATO member states can take independent action, right? Like this is something as long as Greenland essentially is happy with additional true presence on its territory, then that's by last collateral arrangement between the states that decide to go there. The beautiful and difficult thing about NATO is that everything that states contribute, they contribute as sovereign nations, so they can also decide to withdraw it. And that's why there's always so much nervousness to what extent the US actually backs NATO, because beyond the US commitment to the treaty. There isn't anything binding them in as such. It's not like the European Union, where states actually cede some of their sovereignty, sovereignty to the body. NATO only works because all states decide essentially every single day that they want to support each other and work together.
- [35:31]
A
So how close is it to imploding with Donald Trump?
- [35:34]
G
You unfortunately never know. I've been incredibly concerned over the last week because the rhetoric has been so bullish from the United States and it's also been so unclear. You know, on the one hand he said it's all about security, but then on the other hand, of course, we know that Greenland has a lot of natural resources sources that have also been really important for the US and other deals. So this could essentially be a pretext where the US Is just trying to get access to additional resources. But if that is the real reason and they're not willing to negotiate about that, then it makes it very difficult to find a diplomatic solution.
- [36:08]
A
Marin, I wonder if there is a calculation on Ukraine that needs to be factored in.
- [36:13]
G
Well, I mean, the real risk, I suppose, is that if there's essentially another crisis in Europe, it makes it that much harder for European states to continue to support ukra. And of course, I've been wondering what Russia makes of all of this because it essentially shows a very weakened NATO if there's so much infighting. So that's the big worry. And under previous US Administration, you would expect the US to care about this. But I'm not sure that the current administration actually cares about these kind of calculations or cares about a responsibility that it might have in the wider world. So that makes it very tricky.
- [36:49]
A
I mean, some analysts have said that Donald Trump's sort of payoff for this is continued security support of Ukraine if he's allowed Greenland. And I wonder if there is a chance that to avoid military confrontation and maintain that US Support for Kyiv, that Greenland and Denmark would just quietly sell the territory to Trump. Having threatened the worst, he ends up doing the deal that he wanted.
- [37:17]
G
Maybe. I'm not sure, though, that we can try trust the current US Administration long term like that. Right? Like what? What keeps them from taking Greenland in such a deal and then also reneging on support for Ukraine down the line. I mean, there are a few ways how this could be solved. Another possibility is that the, the base territory that the US Already has in Greenland becomes sovereign US territory. That would be akin to the kind of arrangement that the UK has with Cyprus, for example. So there is precedent for that. There's also that, of course, course, would also be a big concession from Greenland, but perhaps preferable to being invaded, if that is indeed one of the risks. And then, of course, the other option is that the US just goes back to the huge troop surge on Greenland that they had during the Cold War. I mean, there's nothing stopping them from that. Denmark has reiterated time and time again that they would welcome that if the U.S. wanted that. So there's lots of different options. And the failure to come to an agreement really is all on the U.S. i would say.
- [38:18]
A
Marian, thank you very much indeed. That's Dr. Marian Messner there. You're with Monocle Radio. Let's head to Helsinki now for a roundup of news from the Nordics. I'm joined by Monocle's correspondent in the region, Petri Bertzoff. Good morning to you, Petri. It's lovely to speak to you.
- [38:44]
B
Well, as ever, good morning, Georgina. From rather chilly Helsinki, although not as chilly as Lapland, where temperatures have actually dropped to far below minus 40 degrees Celsius.
- [38:55]
A
And indeed, we'll be talking about that in just a minute. But I want to pick up where we were at a little bit earlier in the show. We were discussing NATO and Donald Trump's threats to Greenland, what that means for Article 5. And I'd be very interested to see what the papers in your region are saying about this. I understand that the Swedish opposition leader and the former and want to send Swedish troops to Greenland.
- [39:18]
B
Yeah, that's correct. So this weekend saw the sort of main security policy forum in Sweden called Seelen, takes place in northern Sweden. And Magdalena Andersson, who's the former Swedish prime minister and the leader of Sweden's Social Democrats, which is by far the biggest party in the polls at the moment, so a potential future prime minister as well. She has said that she is open to sending Swedish soldiers to Greenland as part of a broader security cooperation, for example, led led by an eu, a force led by an EU or potentially NATO also. And we've actually heard similar calls from Finnish opposition Social Democrats in Finland, Finland as well. But on, on a sort of an official government's level, there hasn't been any, any confirmation. In fact, the, the tone has been quite, quite different because, I mean, of.
- [40:12]
A
Course, Sweden only joined NATO in 2024, address what that means for the organization.
- [40:21]
B
I think they have, and I think that's maybe also why the focus was sort of more on EU than NATO in Magdalena Anderson's speech at Salem. But I think there's a very sort of a tangible feeling that it's not only it's not the EU or it's not the NATO, but it's actually the Nordic countries that's under threat of territorial invasion. And that's something completely new that the Nordics haven't experienced in a very long time. So I think most of the Nordic countries is actually approaching this more as a sort of a Nordic than EU level or NATO issue. And in fact, the Nordic leaders issued a common statement over the weekend basically rejecting Trump's claim of Chinese and Russian ships around Greenland, saying basically that looking at intelligence data from actually NATO and US itself, that of course, NATO members have access to, there has been no credible sightings of any Chinese or Russian naval forces near Greenland.
- [41:28]
A
And of course, that's what Donald Trump is using as justification for his potential takeover of the territory. But as you say, Greenlandic and Danish officials say there's been next to no interest from China since it attempted to help build several airports. That was back in 2018. Denmark gave them a definite no and China seems to have been backed off.
- [41:51]
B
Yes, that's correct. And of course, China and Russia have interest in the Arctic, but that's more sort of closer to northern Norway area than Greenland. And exactly as you said, this is from the Financial Times. So Chinese did back off at the behest of the United States. And then another issue or aspect that the Danish authorities are stressing here is the fact that under NATO traffic, Trump has pretty much carte blanche access to Greenland already and, you know, could have all the bases he wants on Greenland. In fact, the US has voluntarily diminished its troop sizes in Greenland.
- [42:31]
A
It's all quite extraordinary. So let's talk about the weather.
- [42:38]
B
Indeed. So, yes, as I said, temperatures in Lapland, almost record low temperatures, you know, -42 recorded in northern Lapland. And this is, has caused severe problems for flights. Of course, it's the ground staff that is not able to operate in such cold temperatures. And we've had flight cancellations in Rovaniemi, which is sort of more in the southern Lapland, but in Kitila, which is the main airport for northern Lapland, leaving thousands of foreign tourists stranded at airports and hotels. And you can think about this for yourself. Do you want to be stranded when the temperature hits minus minus 40? It's just, it's, I mean, Helsinki, Helsinki is sort of like minus 10, minus 15 at the moment. And that's about the maximum that I can bear Just, you know, leaving the house.
- [43:28]
A
It sounds absolutely terrifying. So, so cold. Finally, let's have a look at this cheating scandal. Norway has been. The ski jumping team's been caught tampering with uniforms. Tell us more.
- [43:40]
B
Yeah, this is something extraordinary. So, you know, in ski jumping, the kind of uniform that you wear is very strong, strictly regulated by fis, the International Ski and Snowboard Federation, because obviously you're coming down the hill and you're essentially flying with your skis on. So the suit that you wear can potentially give you a lot of lift. We've all seen those crazy wingsuit videos online. So it's very strictly regulated. And the Norwegian team has been caught cheating. So they basically, they've installed some kind of strings, some like metal strings in their uniforms that enables them to sort of increase, or actually not increase, but lower the crotch in the suits so that they are basically, that provides them with more aerodynamic lift. But they were caught doing this. And now of course, we're heading to the Winter Olympics next month, so they will be scrutinized very heavily.
- [44:40]
A
Metal strips in the crutch. That doesn't sound at all comfortable.
- [44:44]
B
No, but, you know, if it gives you that extra 10 meters, that gives you the Olympic gold. So, you know, you go to extreme measures, I guess.
- [44:52]
A
I guess. Petri, many thanks for talking to us. That's Petri Butsoft, Monocle's Helsinki correspondent. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. I can eq, EQ and AI, Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence. All to elevate you.
- [45:30]
G
You.
- [45:32]
A
Banking is our craft. It's 8:45 in Basel, 23:45 in Beverly Hills. Now the winners are in from the Golden Globe Awards 2026, the first ceremony since a major overhaul of the organisation behind it. This year's Globes added new awards for podcasts and box office success, as well as returning host in Nikki Glazer. All part of an effort to reassert relevance after years controversy. Well, I'm joined now from Basel by journalist Gabe Bullard and I'm delighted to say that Monocle's Laura Kramer is back from Zurich very briefly and joining me in the studio here. Laura, it's fantastic to see you in the flesh.
- [46:16]
G
Grizzi. Hello, Georgina. So good to be here.
- [46:19]
A
And I see you've even picked up the language, which is brilliant. Gabe, thank you for joining us from Basel. Who were the standout winners?
- [46:27]
D
Yes. So I think with the Golden Globes, we didn't have a ton of surprises necessarily, but one battle after another really took the many of the awards it was nominated for. It went in with nine nominations. That's the Paul Thomas Anderson political comedy drama type thriller that has basically been a favorite for many of the awards since it began. But also seeing in that box office award Sinners, the Ryan Coogler movie from the summer, pick up that award. It had been pretty heavily favored for some of these awards as well, but was up against Hamnet, which I think is a bit more of a surprise winning. So those were sort of the top, top line movie film wins that maybe weren't totally surprising, but interesting to see as we head into this awards season.
- [47:09]
A
Yeah, Laura, I mentioned that there had been big changes behind the scenes. Did that come across in the show at all?
- [47:16]
G
Yeah, I think we're seeing a really big moment right now for international cinema. You know, K Pop Demon Hunters won the Golden Globe for best animated film. It also got best original song. And Brazil really had a moment which is so exciting, I think, especially for Fernando Gustuprocheco, who I'm sure is dying to talk about it. But yeah, we saw Wagner Mora win for the Secret Agent along with the film taking best non English language film. So a big moment for Brazilian storytelling on the world stage. And it doesn't really stop there because the Golden Globes have now also announced recently a tribute event in Rio in 2026 to celebrate more Brazilian film and TV talent. So it feels like we're really recognizing international work and actively investing in it. And I think that's what makes me very excited to see about award shows really going forward.
- [48:05]
A
Yeah, Gabe, I wonder what the new categories of podcasts and cinematic and box office achievement signal about how success is now being defined. Is it all commercial?
- [48:16]
D
You know, I think that has been a difficult balancing act for all of the awards. There's been talk every few years as well about adding to the Academy Awards, something recognizing box office success. When you, you would see some of these gigantic hits like an Avatar or some of the superhero franchises making hundreds of millions, billions of dollars at the box office and not taking home awards. So we're seeing some of that with the Golden Globes and I think Sinners winning over some of the more profitable movies like the new avatar, like Zootopia 2 or Zoomania. It goes by different names in different countries, of course, but I think seeing Sinners win, that is something that has made a lot of folks happy who have wanted to see some sort of balance between artistic achievement and commercial achievement. This was a movie that was an original idea, had a lot of additional ideas in it, some really great filmmaking and was also a gigantic hit.
- [49:08]
A
Laura, I mean, I have to ask this. What role do awards shows like the Globes play today? Are they still relevant? And we ask this every year and every year we decide that they probably are.
- [49:19]
G
Yeah. I would love to see awards show shows bring the fun back. I don't mind a few political jokes. There were certainly a few last night, but Hollywood has always kind of been political in this way. But at its core, I think it should be entertainment. Big, big fun, fun jokes, of course, fashion, joy, surprises. Viewership is down, as we know. People are distracted. And this is an industry that really needs a boost right now. Awards shows, I don't think should really feel like, like a lecture. It should feel like an event again, something that reminds audiences why movies and TVs are exciting in the first place.
- [49:56]
A
And Laura, where do you think this leaves us for the Oscars?
- [49:59]
G
It's a big thing. Everybody's watching Timmy. Timmy Chalamet. Is he going to make it happen? Because he gave such a great speech last night about being very humble and how he walked away from a lot of award shows empty handed, but because his parents always taught him to be humble, it makes the win so much sweeter. It's definitely an exciting race. I think it's. Will Leo pull it through? I don't know. This is why I love awards season so much. Because what you think is starting out in one way is going to be totally different by the time the Oscars come.
- [50:28]
A
Yeah, absolutely. Laura, lovely to have you back in the studio. That's Laura Kramer here in London and Gabe Bullard in Basel. Thank you very much to you.
- [50:42]
G
Sam.
- [51:08]
A
Well, another Zurich based voice, you might say. The voice, in fact, is also on the move. Our founder, our chairman, Tyler Brule is in Tokyo. Tyler, I was reading your column this week and you'd done a perfect itinerary to take your mum to Tokyo. Tell us, have you been following it? What have you been up to?
- [51:27]
H
Good morning, Georgina. Yes, we've been largely following it, though I was talking to my colleague Fiona Wilson yesterday on Monocle on Sunday saying, you know, you write these things and of course, you know, you have to sort of predict the future when you, when you write a column, because there is a bit of a lag. But, you know, we're pretty on the money because by the time I file that column, there's only about sort of 90 minutes before the first readers get it in New Zealand, and then of course, it starts to work its way around the world. But nevertheless, in that intervening period, my flight was delayed four hours. So, you know, item one on the list, which was lunch at Shiseido Parlor yesterday, that didn't happen, but we sort of. We got back on track. So everything is good. And it's just. Tokyo is incredible at this time of year because it's big skies, it's 4 or 5 degrees. It is just. It's amazing. This is my favorite time of year to come to Japan. I mean, the only thing is maybe it's a little bit in sale period, so you don't have all of the baby. The stores are always looking good. And of course, we're gonna talk about retail right now, but I like, of course, when the spring summer collections are in, but that's another few weeks away.
- [52:34]
A
Yeah. You mentioned in your column something about the department stores, and I us a little bit there before we talk about the huge American department store, which of course is facing trouble.
- [52:45]
H
Well, I was just. I'm hours out of being in. Being in Isetan, and of course, Isetan Mitsukoshi, it is one of the biggest department store groups. Isetan in Shinjuku in Tokyo. It has one of the highest department store turnovers for a single door in the world. And this is a proper department store. And I think it takes us a little bit in the direction of where we want to go with, of course, how do you solve a problem like department store? Department stores in many other corners of the world. We're gonna be talking about the US at the moment. But of course, it's also. It's a U.S. canada story because it also has something to do with, of course, the Hudson's Bay Company, which is no longer with us as well. But if you look at the state of the department stores, I was even just in the taxi on the way to our studio here in Tokyo. There's one of these ads, of course, pops up at the back of the seat. And it was about Seibu, a department store in Ikebukuro, again, another suburb of Tokyo. And it was just about the renewal of the store. It was just, of course, Seibu is one of the, you know, one of the most famous names of one of the big holding groups in Japan. Very famous as being a retailer, Georgina. But it was actually, it was incredible because it was written. Was both English and Japanese. But I was talking about this department store as your friend and you'll still recognize us when you come in, but we've reconfigured for a modern time and there was just all of these lovely images sort of fading in and out. Now, Ikebukuro is not so close to our studios, but I was tempted. I thought, okay, this is the place I want to see it. And how are they seducing me? They were seducing me with just pure variety. I think the things that department stores should do, which is whether it is food and great drink and good restaurants and an array of wonderful brands and products that you want to buy and that is still alive in this country. And I think Japan is one of the few countries in the world where the department, department store, and I say as we know it, I can't speak for all readers, but Georgina, you and I are around 35, so we would of course, you know, recall just the tail end of the golden days of department stores.
- [54:45]
A
Absolutely. And of course, chief amongst those has always been Saks Sachs and Neiman Marcus. So Saks Global Enterprises was created just over a year ago from a leveraged 2.7 billion merger between Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. It's now preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after missing major debt payments and struggling to secure emergency financing. So the longtime CEO Mark Metric has stepped down amid this crisis. It raises fresh questions about leadership decisions, the future of luxury retail brands that depend on the Saks network. Tyler. I mean, it's a major, major fall for a once strong luxury retailer. Why do you think this happened?
- [55:27]
H
I think we have to rewind many, many years. And I think some would like to point, of course, to the dawn of E commerce. And you, of course, shopping digitally might have had some impact. But I think this goes further back. I think there was a moment, Georgina, when there was this sense that, okay, one side rationalization. I think one side. We saw a lot of consolidation in the United States. And of course, when you talk about consolidation, that means you're looking to save costs and you're looking to save costs and you want to sort of rationalize everything. That means taking people off the shop floor. That means fewer brands. That, that means probably co opting or leasing out part of your stores to other brands. So that starts to dilute the experience. So I think we can look back across the last two decades and there's been a number of, I think, missteps. And primarily we're talking about, this is a US story right now. We're talking about Saks. We're talking about, of course, Neiman Marcus, which also Includes Bergdorf Goodman. So you're talking about, of course, some of the most recognized department stores really in the world, and certainly from a fashion and beauty perspective, some of the most admired at the same time. And then, of course, there's all of the other stores. But it's amazing when you just read about the history of the U.S. department Store and just how many names there used to be, that if you were in a city like Chicago, there was Carson, Perien, Scott, there was Marshall Fields as a big name. Boston was known as Filene's. Every city had its own, not just single department store might have had a group of different department stores representing the city. I can just do without any notes in front of me, Georgina. I can think of New York in its. It wasn't even the heyday anymore, but I remember going to New York. There was Henry Bendel, there was Bonwit Teller, there was B. Altman, there was Lord and Taylor, there was Bloomingdale's, there was Barney's, there was Bergdorf Goodman, Macy's, Gimbel's. I mean, that's incredible. There's nine department stores right there. All stores of scale. And I think one of the principal things that happened was that the word.
- [57:25]
D
Department.
- [57:28]
H
Really started to disappear. And these just became specialty stores. And specialty stores, which were largely focused on beauty and fashion and that idea that Georgina might want to go there and buy bed linen, and then you might have broken two saucers, Georgina. So you needed to go to the porcelain and to the china department, and then you wanted to buy some groceries. And maybe when you went to grocery, you wanted to go to a fine wine store, because maybe Georgina likes a bottle of wine. I don't know. But anyway, all of these things that they had you captive under one roof, right? And sadly, I think what happened was these became places which were largely just focused on garments and beauty, and that sense of that place was essential. And you could say John Lewis in the UK does that a little bit. But again, it's not the same as it used to be. I mean, you used to go to the John Lewis Lynn department, and it was just. It was amazing. And there was. There was a tin. There was just the best representation of also made in the UK or made in Scotland. And so much of that has been eradicated. So that notion of specialization, I think that notion of breadth, of just having, you know, a varied selection, and I always say, like, goodness, you get those people through your front door and you could almost sell them anything. And that takes me back to Japan. I mean, that because that is what is still happening here.
- [58:51]
A
Absolutely. Tyler, have a fantastic time there. I hope your mum has a wonderful time too and that you get some great, great department store shopping in. That was Tyler Brulee, Monocle's editorial director, our founder and chairman. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Carlotta Rebelo, Chris Chermack and Laura Kramer. Our researcher, Anneliese Maynard, and our studio manager, Mariella Bevan. After the headlines, there's more music on the way and the briefing is live at midday In London. The Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.