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We're proud to support the craft of journalism. UBS brings you the latest news from around the world with the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Be part of an international network that brings together leading insights, research and technology across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the centre of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Foreign.
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You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 25th September 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program.
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Coming up, we expect Russia to respect territorial integrity. We stand together in NATO solidarity.
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Germany's foreign minister places NATO at the heart of protecting international borders. But should NATO shoot down Russian aircraft that fly into its airspace? Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, we focus on the UN General assembly as a growing number of world leaders call for Israel to end its operation in Gaza.
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Plus, we are bringing together the world.
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We are bringing together an amazing workforce.
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And they are bringing together an amazing vehicle. And at the end of all that, when you squeeze it all down, it created magic. So we're going to fly around the moon in the spacecraft integrity.
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The four astronauts who'll fly around the moon next year say they're ready for every eventuality. We'll recap yesterday's big unveil at NASA. Plus, we'll go through the papers, too. That's all coming up on the Globalist live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. Colombia's president has described U.S. airstrikes on boats in the Caribbean Sea as an act of tyranny. Denmark's Aalborg airport has been closed due to a number of drones entering its airspace. And a French court will deliver its verdict on the corruption trial of France's former president Nicolas Sarkozy later. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, just what would happen if NATO shot down the next Russian plane that flew within its airspace? Five years ago, Turkey didn't hesitate. Its fighter jet shot down a Russian Sukhoi attack aircraft near to the Syria, Turkey border. Moscow did not make the same mistake twice. But in the past few weeks here in Europe, Russia has sent jets for a full 12 minutes into Estonia. And before that, more than 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace on the night of September 9th. So what should needs NATO do? Well, I'm joined now in the studio by Ash Bardwaj, who's writer and broadcaster specializing in defence and security and travel. Good morning, Ash. Good to see you.
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Good morning.
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So let's just focus on what's been happening in the last couple of weeks. There's 12 minutes of incursion by a Russian, by Russian aircraft into the Estonian airspace. That was serious enough for Estonia to request a meeting under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty. So this is something that NATO has already been brought into.
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Yeah, and it's not the first time that this sort of thing's been happening. Recently, Russia has effectively been testing the way NATO responds to an incursion into a NATO country's airspace. And the frequency of these incursions is increasing. We've had about 10 or 12 that NATO have publicly declared since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, but nearly all of them have come this year and the highest frequency has been in the last month or so. You've had drones going over Poland, drones going over Romania, and then these jets going over Estonia, and then the recent shutdown of airports in Norway and Denmark, which has been declared by the Norwegian and Danish governments rather than being a NATO declaration. And Estonia has asked for a NATO Article 4 consultation. Poland asked for the same after the drones went into their airspace. And there's already an air policing mission going on across NATO. So that's where different NATO allies provide jets and pilots to help police the skies. This is particularly important for the Baltic states, which don't have their own air forces. So here in the United Kingdom, we have an air policing mission. We actually have a rapid response mission from RAF Lakenheath in the north. And they have been sending jets up every now and again when Russian bombers come around the top of Norway and approach the United Kingdom. But for the Baltic states, it's been Dutch, Italian, British.
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The Germans do it and the Spanish.
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Do it and the Germans and Spanish do it. And it was actually Italian F35s that escorted the Russian jets out last week.
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So obviously the infrastructure is there to patrol and protect. But you mentioned Article 4, which is triggered when a country, effectively consultation needs to have a meeting about what's just happened. The next step is Article 5, isn't it? Which is that an attack on one is an attack on all. When does that line get crossed?
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So this is partly of what Russia is testing at the moment. It's trying to blur the red lines. Some people, the Estonian Defence Minister has referred to it as the boiling frog. Russia just pushing the margins further and further to see how NATO responds. Now, NATO's rules for engagement are classified. They won't Tell us under what conditions they will engage an adversary aircraft. And for the incident over Estonian airspace, they weren't seen as attacking or threatening. The air policing mission in the Baltics comes under NATO command. Poland and Sweden have both said that they will shoot down Russian aircraft coming into their airspace, but that is a nation doing it under its own air force and under its own rules of engagement.
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The.
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The reason why the Russians are testing the Estonians, the Latvians and the Lithuanians is because it's NATO aircraft doing it and they're trying to effectively test. Can you create an incursion into regions that Vladimir Putin and his friends have said that they want back without getting a response from NATO? So can you do something to Estonia without all of NATO responding? So they're effectively trying to create a wedge between the Baltics and the other countries, but in particular, they're trying to see if they can create a wedge between the European NATO nations and the United States. Can they get them to do something that annoys the Americans?
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Now, I mentioned at the beginning of this what happened five years ago in Turkey. A Russian plane entered Turkish airspace. It was shot down. Russia didn't do it again. And yesterday there was a comment from the retired British Army General Sir Richard Shiraf, who's written a book called Quite Pressing war with Russia 2017, still on my bookcase. He talked about the fact that when Russia is allowed to push and push and push and push, it will continue to do so. If it is slapped straight back, it retreats. This is a huge decision for NATO, isn't it? Because it needs to test whether what the Turkish decision was, whether the Turkish decision would be a correct one for NATO, because what, the last thing they want to do is end up with a conflict on the borders with Europe.
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Yeah. And it would be Russia's choice to turn that into a conflict. It's Russia that is incurring into NATO airspace. Turkey shot down the Russian jet under its own sovereignty, using its own jets and its own rules of engagement with what would happen in the Baltics. It would end up being a NATO operation. But Donald Trump, the US President, said the other day he was asked, what should NATO do about this? He thinks that they should shoot them down. And he even said when someone pushed him, would US Military forces be involved in an operation like that? He didn't rule out the possibility. General Richard's point seems to be true. And there's this phrase that's bandied around by Russians about Lenin talking about the bayonet. You push and push and push. Until you find steel and then you withdraw. And there's also this notion of grandmother steps, two steps forward, one step back. In the Baltic Sea, where Russia has been cutting critical national infrastructure and undersea cables, the Article 4 consultation led to Baltic sentry, which basically means we're patrolling. Well, NATO is patrolling that sea much better, and those attacks have stopped. It's Russia that's doing this. I think, hopefully the statements from NATO will be strong enough for Russia to not keep pushing, but they will keep pushing to see how far they'll go. And they may be wanting to entice NATO into shooting down a Russian jet so that it annoys the Americans or.
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They'Re trying to test that America is the key here, isn't it? You mentioned the fact that Trump has suggested that NATO members should shoot down a Russian plane, a Russian military flight jet that goes into NATO airspace. However, it goes back to Article 5, doesn't it, that if Article 5 were to be invoked by NATO allies, would Trump and the United States suddenly find itself having to commit to defend countries that are a long way away, that could face incursions from Russia? The last thing Russia wants is a conflict with the United States. So is this Moscow testing America's metal, perhaps as a result of, dare I say it, Putin meeting Trump, working out who he is, working out where the boundaries could be, and then thinking, we wonder Whether, if Article 5 were to be invoked, America would not step up?
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That is exactly what Russia is trying to figure out here. And they're trying to figure out, can we get Italian jets, for example, to shoot down a Russian jet over Estonian airspace under a NATO or operation? And then that would, if Russia were to then declare war or try and escalate from that point, then America would have to be involved under NATO Article 5. Is Putin trying to get Trump to say, you shouldn't have done that, You've pulled us into a conflict? I think that is one of the possibilities of what Russia is trying to do here.
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And we're also seeing. There's an article in the Financial Times today which is, European officials are fearing that Donald Trump's latest rhetoric on Ukraine is actually giving them an impossible mission that will allow the US President not only to withdraw support, even more support for Ukraine, but could actually blame Europe for letting Kyiv down. There's a wider, longer strategy here, isn't there?
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Yeah.
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He had some rhetoric the other day where he said, given the right support, Ukraine could not only retake the land that it has already lost to the Russians, but he even said, and maybe go further, which no one in Ukraine has ever said that they've wanted to do. It's a fairly loose statement that is quite risky one to put out there because that effectively reinforces Vladimir Putin, the Russian president's narratives. But Trump has said that he will impose massive sanctions if all European and NATO nations stop buying oil from Russia. Now everyone has stopped buying oil from Russia apart from Hungary and Slovakia, which are Trump certainly. Viktor Orban of Hungary is certainly a Trump ally. And FISO of Slovakia has spent time with Putin as well.
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Ashbardwaj Beaucht and broadcaster thank you so much for joining me in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist 9am in Gaza City, 7am here in London. Now this year's UN General assembly has heard an increasing number of world leaders use their allocated speeches to make a direct appeal to Israel to end the crisis in Gaza. Yesterday, the Spanish King Felipe VI urged the international community to act now to stop the massacre. On Tuesday, the U.S. donald Trump told the General assembly that the war in Gaza must stop immediately, while warning that the recent recognition of Palestinian statehood by several Western countries was a reward for Hamas. So where is all this leading? Well, I'm joined now by Yossi Meckelberg, senior consulting fellow at the Middle East North Africa program at Chatham House and a regular voice of wisdom here around the table. Good morning Yossi, how are you?
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I'm good.
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Good to have you. So we have this noticeable growth in the number of world leaders speaking out on Israel in in New York. Possibly no great surprise but the stre of their words was yeah, I mean.
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The tide has changed, probably should have taken place long time ago. And I think the recognition in Palestine state to see now four out of the five permanent member of the Security Council, most of the G7 members recognize Palestinian statehood now. It's a welcome development in my mind. It makes a change people sometimes. Oh, it's only symbolic. It's a gesture. But symbolism in diplomacy and international relations is important. It's not a silver bullet unless it's followed with concrete policies. A stopping the war in Gaza because it's getting worse, worse and worse every day. Dozens of Palestinians are killed. The devastation now inside Gaza City and then ending the war in Gaza, reconstruction of Gaza, finding an alternative and follow it with a UN resolution, security resolution that will ensure that there is a peace process that lead to end of.
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This conflict which appears at the moment to be very, very far away from where we are right now. And you mentioned the fact that the diplomatic tide has changed but the Continual question. The question that's always following this is the words have come but where is the action?
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Absolutely. I think we see slowly change also in action. Just kind of.
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Yeah.
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Again talk about symbolism. You know there is this flotilla and you know, whatever one thinks about the flotilla, but it's attacked by allegedly by Israel, you know, with drones. But the fact that Spain and now Italy says that they will send warships to protect the flotilla, it's a change probably a year ago, two years ago. You never hear something like this. Members of NATO, which means if Israel keeps attacking this flotilla and Spain and Italy protecting it, they are actually almost embarking on conflict with NATO. We saw Spain suspending arms trade with Israel, more sanction on extreme ministers in Israel, on settlements, tradition, settlement. I think the tide is changing also practically is it quick enough to yield? The result is this government in Israel would respond and actually be reflective and said we can't go on like this. Much of it actually goes through Washington and President Trump.
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Which is the next question. Does any of this count if the USA isn't on board? Because Trump very clear at the UN General assembly about saying look, recognizing the Palestinian statehood is a reward for terrorism.
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Which I mean it buys into the rhetoric of Netanyahu and the right wing in Israel. No, it's not. It's not a reward for Hamas. Everyone agrees that Hamas shouldn't be part of future governing of Gaza or Palestine generally. So this is a statement by the way by the Arab League, not only by, you know, Israel or its allies in Europe, the European Union, it's within the New York declaration that Hamas shouldn't be, which is a Saudi French sponsored declaration, you know, the summit that took place in July. So there is an agreement. So it's not reward Hamas, but it's looking beyond where we are now and move forward.
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And what role does the UN General assembly play with this play in this looking forward? I mean you talked about a particular pathway but the two state solution does always. It is now becoming, it's now come back into the discussions much more strongly given the number of Western countries now recognizing a Palestinian statehood. But we are so far from a moment when a space is created where Palestinians and Israelis could live together yet separately. That is arguably what people are looking at here. And the UN General assembly is a great platform. But where does this now go?
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We have to remember that recognition Palestinian state is one vote away from the inter Security Council. It's only the United States. It's actually veto this. But again we are in the midst of the most terrible war conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians, when, you know, the terrible tragedy that taking place every day. But when we are in the midst of such a war, we need to think beyond this and what is the solution? What's the alternative? And I don't see an alternative to a two state solution. It can't be a two state solution the way that the Oslo Accord envisage. But we can start more thinking about an Israeli Palestinian confederation which is a two state solution. We found a one state solution reality that was created as a result of building settlement. And so it makes sense in such a small territory with like 16 million people in 26,000 square kilometers, that there will be more flexibility within this political system. It is possible. But you see, there is always, when there is, in the middle of the war, when there is, you know, each side demonizes and dehumanizes each other. There is, it's easy to think, oh, there is no way out, but especially when we are here in Europe. Think about hundreds and hundreds of years of war. And after the worst of war, actually Europe came together. Why do we think the Israel and Palestinians can do that?
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Yossi Meckelberg, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, thank you so much once again for joining us in the studio. Still to come on today's program, Japanese.
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Consumers value experiences and their stories.
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We head to Japan for a speciality coffee exhibition. Stay with us on the globalist.
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Craft is its own reward. Which is why at UBS, we're honoured to work alongside over 50 of today's leading Nobel laureates, each an expert in the art of economic science, bringing you engaging discussions, actionable insights and inspired solutions, all focused around the questions that shape our world today. For a better outlook, find a Nobel perspective. UBS banking is our craft.
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Time now to have a look at today's newspapers. Joining me now in the studio, Simon Brook, journalist, communications consultant and the man who picks great stories from the papers. Good morning, Simon.
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Good morning.
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How's life with you? That's all great, thank you, Simon. Ladies and gentlemen, wearing an excellent oatmeal. That's a lambswool sweater, isn't is?
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Well spotted. Yeah. Pulled off the floor this morning as I staggered out of bed at six o'. Clock.
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You're not supposed to say that.
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Sorry.
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How are you? Headlife.
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What are your favorites? Thank you. So, yeah, so the FT looking at has been speaking to European officials who fear, according to the paper, that Donald Trump's latest rhetoric on Ukraine aims to put them in an impossible that will allow Trump himself to sort of shift the Blame away from Washington onto Europe if Kyiv falters in the war or runs out of cash. And the paper reminds us, of course, that earlier this year, Trump changed his line entirely on this conflict, saying that Kyiv could fight and win all its land with the help of the eu. The paper also reminds us that Trump has recently taken a stronger position on sanctions, calling on the EU to halt purchases of Russian oil and also to hit China and India with tariffs. And further comments from these European officials that FT reporters have been talking to, saying that Trump is building what they've described as an off ramp so that he can blame Europe if things don't go well, and he needs to do that. And of course, in some ways, I think, as sometimes happens with Donald Trump, there's a grain of truth here. I mean, perhaps Europe. Well, it's not even perhaps, and many people would say that Europe really should step up to the mark and do more in this to support Kyiv and to limit Russia's ambitions, to put it mildly.
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It's interesting because actually today, this excellent article in the Financial Times, always placing that extra layer of context into things, seeing much further as to what Donald Trump's immediate declarations could be. But today we have the Ukrainian finance minister in Brussels to talk about his country's funding needs. And it's been estimated at what. I think it's 23. I'm just reading it now, $23 billion next year just to fight the. The Russians. And the fact is, is that, like trying to work out whether actually the imf, whether Europe, the European Union itself, actually has the cash to do this. There is this dependent, there is this dreadful feeling is that if America withdraws, for whatever reason, there's just not enough money to. To keep Ukraine, you know, in the game, in the fight.
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And I think there's also questions about the Ukrainian economy as well. I mean, this is. Yes, of course, it is getting some assistance finally now from the rest of the world, but this conflict is taking a huge. Making a huge impact on the Ukrainian economy. So, yeah, questions about how that can keep going, what extra resources it needs.
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Right, let's move on to an article in the Times that you wanted to draw our attention to. It's a British. It's an internal British political problem, but it's. It's the wider issue about party leadership which is being addressed here. So externally, I think we can argue that Keir Starmer's doing pretty well on the world stage. He's got a similar problem to Emmanuel Macron. Really powerful, really effective on the World stage, at home making a mess, or people believe he's making a mess. So there are already potential replacements circling to take over from the Prime Minister, who, let's be clear, has been in power for about what, a year and a bit. One of them is Andy Burnham. So talk us through this, Artif.
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Yeah, as you say, this is particularly important because international relations are very much to the fore at the moment. And yeah, as you say, Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, has had a pretty good showing on the international stage domestically, not doing very well. Real concerns amongst, not just Labour Party supporters, but generally those on the left as well, that Starmer is not doing a great job and that he's tacked very much to the right. So the Prince in waiting, if you like, or the Prince across the ship canal rather than the sea, as the Times describes it in this analysis, is Andy Burnham, as you say, Mayor of Manchester. Now, Burnham will not be speaking from the conference platform and people wouldn't expect him to do that. But what he will be doing will be appearing at least three conference fringe events. He's also done an extensive interview for the New Statesman magazine, which I'm going to read as soon as we've finished here, which is very much the in house journal of the Labour Party and the left. So, yeah, positioning himself as a successor to Starmer. The problem that Burnham faces is that he doesn't have a parliamentary seat at the moment, so he'd have to be an mp. There was a suggestion that he might step in for a by election at the Gorton and Denton constituency. Unfortunately for him, the sitting MP there has decided he's not going to play ball and he's going to hang in there. So it'll be interesting to see the other point this piece makes in the Times comparing the situation a few years ago, when Boris Johnson was not Prime Minister, Theresa May was. But at the Conservative party conference in 2018, people were far more interested in hearing from Boris Johnson than Theresa May. So I think the point this piece is making is that Andy Burnham is treading very carefully here indeed.
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There's an excellent sort of follow up as well from the brilliant political commentator Matthew Parris, who talks about the fact that Andy Burnham actually is all things to all people and this could actually be the best thing, but it also could be the worst. And the joke is a Blairite, a Brownite, a Corbynite and a Starmerite walk into a Manchester bar. What are you having, Andy? Says the barman.
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Exactly.
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He is trying to be absolutely everybody and it works for Boris Johnson.
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Well, it does. And I think what's interesting as well is if you look at it from a US comparison, for instance, governors do quite well in their presidential campaigns quite often because they can look back at what they've achieved domestically, or at least in their own patch, their own. And this is an opportunity for Andy Burnham to say, look, look what I've done in Manchester, which has certainly, the economy is booming, transport is doing well, for instance. He can then say, well, this is my CV for being Prime Minister of the whole country.
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Let's move on to coverage of an absolutely remarkable moment that happened at the UN General assembly yesterday. The Syria's interim president stood up and said his country has reclaimed its rightful place on the world stage. And I think this is the first Syrian leader to address the assembly since 1967.
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Wow, I didn't realize that. But yes, Al Jazeera is reporting that Ukraine and Syria are to restore diplomatic ties after a breakdown, obviously during the Assad regime. And yeah, reporting that President Zelenskyy of Ukraine and Syria's President Ahmed Al Sharna have. Sharrar have discussed cooperation and mutual respect. I think this is particularly interesting because I know obviously one person who will be absolutely furious about this is Vladimir Putin. And I think it might not be immediately useful to Ukraine. But what it does, I think, is to signal that it's a little indication, perhaps Ukraine a bit more on the front foot, being recognized and accepted by more countries. The implication being that this is a backward step for Russia. But we'll wait to see what happens on that one.
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Finally, a wonderful article in the New York Times. Going to a place that Monocle loves and knows dearly is Bolzano, a brilliant town up the road from Murano. We have a shop there, ladies and gentlemen, but don't bring your dog.
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No, don't bring your dogs on a knob. Yeah, as you say, the New York Times reporting that, if you want to. So according to the New York Times, anyway, dogs bringing their owners, as they put it, into this beautiful part, as you say, of the Tyrolean Alps for some scenery and mountain air, could face a new charge of roughly €1.50. That's about €1 $1.75 per day, according to the New York Times reporting what Italian media have been saying. So even local dogs will have to do the same if the law comes into force next year and if it's approved by the local council. So residents locally would be estimated would be paying an estimated €100 per dog per year, bringing back a dog tax which was abolished in 2008. What's interesting is that this replaces a kind of radio requirement for DNA testing for dogs. One of the things that the aim with there was that if the dog left with what was described as waste behind, you could be traced.
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So well written in the New York Times.
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I know, isn't it? Sorry, holding breakfast. But but I think what's really interesting, it's a bit of a backward step really. We're going away from technology, back to something very traditional.
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Said a man who used to hate dogs and now has two Weird, isn't it so strange. Simon Brooke, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. You're listening to Monocle Radio. You now, here's a quick look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. Colombia's president has described U.S. airstrikes on boats in the Caribbean Sea as an act of tyranny. Gustavo Petro called for a criminal investigation into the operation, which Donald Trump says was intended to target drug traffickers. Up to 17 people are thought to have died in the strikes this month. Denmark's Alborg airport has been closed due to a number of drones entering its airspace. The closure of the airport, which is used for both commercial and military flights, comes two days after the country's main airport in Copenhagen was also shut because of drones. And a French court will deliver its verdict in the corruption trial of France's former president Nicolas Sarkozy. Today, M. Sarkozy is accused of taking millions of euros from late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to help finance his 2007 election campaign. And though the headlines on the Globalist, a quick look now behind some of the headlines we're following here at Midori House. Here's Monocle's Gulf correspondent in Zaman Rashid on the line from Dubai, talking about why Gulf nations are hedging their bets when it comes to defence.
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The Israeli strike on Doha that killed six people, including a Qatari security officer, has jolted the Gulf Gulf into a new phase of defensive maneuvering. In the days since, states have scrambled to announce air defense drills, share more intelligence and speed up missile warning systems. On the surface, it looks like unity scratched deeper. And it's about covering bases and signalling abroad, nowhere more so than in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has just unveiled a defence pact with Pakistan, long in the works but hurried through after the Doha attack. According to my sources in Islamabad, the message is simple. An attack on Saudi Arabia is an attack on Pakistan. Given Pakistan's nuclear status, the implication is Hard to ignore. This isn't simply about military hardware. It's about shifting perceptions of threat. For decades, the Gulf has sheltered under America's umbrella, U.S. systems, U.S. training, U.S. guarantees. But Israel's strike on Qatar and Washington's unwillingness to restrain its ally has changed the calculus. Hassan Al Hasan is a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He told me that the pact is an attempt to shore up Saudi Arabia's deterrence gap.
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What the Saudis are really trying to get out of it is they realize that there is a deterrence deficit vis a vis Israel. They know they can't count on the United States to rein in the Israelis. And obviously Israel is a nuclear armed state. So in a sense I think this is signaling. This is an attempt to shore up the deterrence deficit and in a sense to signal a Pakistani nuclear umbrella over Saudi Arabia.
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For Riyadh, it provides reassurance at home and leverage abroad. For Washington, it's a warning. The Gulf is no longer content to outsource its security to one superpower. Elsewhere. Qatar has deepened its engagement with Islamabad, yet the GCC remains fragmented. Joint communiques proclaim solidarity, but the Saudis decision to move bilaterally shows how much each state still wants its own insurance policy. The nuclear question of course looms large. No Gulf state is openly pursuing a bomb. But with Israel's arsenal and Iran's enrichment, leaders are less willing to rule out a nuclear deterrent forever. Pakistan offers them at least the perception of one unsettling both Washington and Tel Aviv. And behind the formal statements there is genuine anger. Leaders fear the strike on Doha has set a precedent that Israel could attack again against any Gulf state with impunity. The Saudi Pakistan Pact act should not be dismissed as symbolism. It reflects a Gulf that feels cornered, compelled to diversify its security and willing to look beyond Washington. And that, more than any missile strike, is what should keep US policymakers awake at night.
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That was Monocle's Gulf correspondent in Zamam Rashid. For more, sign up to our daily newsletter, the Monocle Minute. Just go to our website for more. You're listening to the Globalist.
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Now. One of the military campaigns by Israel which has continued despite warning some UN peacekeeping forces is the operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. It's been nearly a year since a ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah. But exchanges of not stopped and reports suggest that Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran is still able to pay its fighters wages handsomely. Well, I'm joined now by Leila Malana Alan, who's Monocle's Middle east correspondent. She joins us on the line from Beirut. Good morning Leila.
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Hi there.
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So there was a ceasefire in November 2024. It was all supposed to calm down. What's gone wrong?
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Well, it absolutely hasn't. And quite simply Israel has not stuck to the terms of the ceasefire. They say the reason for that that is because Hezbollah is still fighting in the south. Israel still has five military outposts in the south. It continues to bomb mostly in the south of Lebanon very occasionally in Beirut still just a few days ago in Bintjebel in south, an Israeli drone strike targeted a bike and a car and killed five people, three of whom were kids under 12. There was a mass funeral procession for those children. So we're seeing, we see still see several strikes a month and as I say, a refusal from Israel to pull back from those positions that it's occupying the south of Lebanon. And meanwhile unifil, which is the organization that has looked after the south of Lebanon and tried to maintain that blue line there of separation for decades, is now going to be wound down. By the end of next year that mission will no longer be there. But there doesn't really seem to be at the moment a replacement. This of course is all in the backdrop of the fact that Hezbollah is supposed to be giving up their weap. Part of the problem is that that was part of the ceasefire deal. But Hezbollah did not sign the ceasefire deal. The ceasefire deal was between the Lebanese government and Israel. And Hezbollah maintains that because Israel continues to attack the south of Lebanon and the Lebanese army is not strong enough to retaliate, that it needs to hold on to its weapons to protect the south.
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C
And not just that it seems to be finding itself in a diminished yes, after the Israeli operation last year and the Israeli press presence in, in Lebanon, but not out. It, it's still, there were reports suggesting as a moment ago it's still able to pay its, its, its recruits more than the average wage in, in Lebanon. And it is still fighting back to the point where the US and Israel are, are, are demanding that it's disarmed by the end of the year. But there is no sign that that's.
- [37:13]
G
Happening well, we are finally starting to see a little bit of movement on that. And that's in terms of the government actually trying to pressure them now certainly, yes, was massively diminished by the strikes last year. Of course, the entirety of its leadership pretty much taken out. Many of its military depots in both Beirut and the south taken out. But they're still a strong fighting force. They still have many fighters and they still importantly have the ability to recruit both because Israel does continue to strike the south, does continue to kill civilians in the south, which is Hezbollah's stated reason for having weapons down there. And they have historically been seen by people in the south to be much better at protecting the south than the army is. And also as you say, because they are able to pay their wages. Iran obviously is hugely on the back foot, but still is able to supply some money. They have far more problems now getting weapons to Hezbollah since Syria has fallen, since the Assad regime fell, which of course gave Iran open license to move weapons through Syria into Lebanon. But it is still happening. But as I say, we are seeing a little bit of movement. So the new government that came in at the beginning of this year, very surprisingly in Lebanon, because of course here it always takes months, sometimes years to get a government. But we quickly saw a president elected. He managed to put to nominate a prime minister very quickly, a very respected man now, Assalam, and who managed to put his cabinet together in a matter of days. Now, that new cabinet, I actually been speaking to a lot of them in the last few days and they are pushing very hard for Hezbollah to disarm. They're being very careful how they do it because as they say, quite rightly, Hezbollah is a big part of Lebanon. Hezbollah's supporters are. Hezbollah is in the government too. They are Lebanese people and they have just as much right to have a say. But these weapons, at least in recent years, have done nothing but bring more violence on Lebanon. And so this new government is really urging Hezbollah, Hezbollah to lay down those arms and promising that in return if they do so, they will put huge pressure on US allies to tell Israel that they must stop attacking in the south. It's a little bit of a chicken leg situation. Does Hezbollah disarm first or does Israel stop attacking first? But this government says they at least want to be in the right on this side and not have any non army armed groups and equally be able to strengthen the Lebanese army to the point where they are able to take care of the Lebanese people and keep the south safe. And, and we're seeing reactions from the public that at least whether or not this actually works, they are very happy that finally a Lebanese government is taking a firm stand on this and trying to make change.
- [39:48]
C
Leila Malana, Alan Monacle's Middle east correspondent, joining us on the line from Beirut. Thank you for joining us on Monocle Radio. Now yesterday NASA introduced the world to the team of astronauts it sent it plans to send to the moon next year. It's been five decades since a fully crewed lunar mission. So why now and what will it achieved? Well, joining me now is Sue Nelson, science journalist and present presenter of the Space Boffins podcast. Good morning Sue, Good to have you with us.
- [40:26]
H
Good morning.
- [40:26]
C
So there was a big unveil yesterday. Who did we meet and what did we learn?
- [40:32]
H
Well, basically we met the, you know, the, the, the crew and to be honest, we haven't learned that much new. If you've been following the story, this has been going on a long time. Artemis 2 has always been the intended next mission from Artemis 1, which went up in 2022. That was a, a 25 day mission, but that didn't have a crew. And while the crew had already been announced, this was the first time you met them all together. The surprise was that they brought the Launch up. Artemis 2 will be the first one, as you said, with an actual crew on board and it'll be the first orbiting mission around the moon in over 50 years. The first one was actually Apollo 8 in 1968 that went around the moon. So that's the difference is that it's being brought forward, it's in February. And that did surprise people because as many will have seen, there have been a huge number of job cuts at NASA recently. Morale has been pretty low, I think it's fair to say. I know a number of people who work within NASA or who have worked with NASA or very close ties with NASA. I've spoken to NASA officials who of unofficially you could say, and they have been extremely concerned about the number of missions that have been proposed to be cut, the number of jobs that have been going and its reputation worldwide as a leader in the space race. So this is something that has been very well received because it sort of puts national pride back on top again.
- [42:26]
C
So why is this Artemis 2 and more specifically the spacecraft integrity, his name we learned yesterday, why is, why is this the mission that's got got through all the others?
- [42:37]
H
Well, this one, let's say this had, had already been planned. It had just been delayed and delayed and delayed because Artemis 1 that was, you know, the test of the, the, the, the spacecraft. But, and it was a good mission, it was successful. But it had some heat shield issues. Now obviously, you know, a heat shield is a crucial aspect of, of any flight. If beings on board, you do not want them to be fried up basically when it's returning into the Earth's atmosphere. That issue obviously has been been fixed and, and it, and it is, it's, it's a milestone. It, you know, it's the first, it will be the first mission on board with this Orion capsule which is now called Integrity official name. And Orion is, is actually when you look at it, it's a reminder. It. And I have seen an exact replica of Orion and at NASA which was used by astronauts to train on it looks just like an Apollo capsule. It's shaped just like an Apollo capsule. But whereas Apollo, I mean honestly if you've ever seen like in the science museum they've got Apollo 10 on display. What shocks you most about it is how tiny it is inside. To get, and that was, you know, to get three astronauts in, that's like the inside of a Mini Cooper basically. The, the Orion capsule is, is much bigger. It's the same shape but it's much bigger. But that will carry four people on board. It's a bit more like a sort of small SUV inside which doesn't sound, you can imagine being with four people inside there on, on a, you know, a 10 day flight.
- [44:27]
C
There are a couple of things that the ambition and stitched into this is that that this is a moment when they want to send human beings further than ever sent them because am I right in thinking the intention is to send them around the side of the moon that we don't normally see? But there's also issues about sort of picking up solar winds and helping us back on Earth deal with any disturbances or anticipate them. So the concrete benefits for us Earthlings will be what? What?
- [44:58]
H
Well I mean to be fair there are already several missions out there which are looking at solar wind and send back forecasts to weather, you know, meteorological organizations on Earth. We do already have that. I think that you know, no matter what they say they're going to do and they, you know, they will potentially be going over new areas of the moon before to see new areas. But again we already have uncrewed missions that can, can do that for us. I think really the key thing is about people again and it, it's, you know, considering how often we've done these missions before between 1969 and 72, you would think, oh well, it's easy. But actually that's, you know, it's not just one generation ago, it's several generations ago. And it's while Orion looks very like the Apollo capsule, it's obviously UPD related technology. It's going to be different case. But they still haven't got the land yet totally sorted out. So we're still quite away before we put people on the moon. But there's also a political aspect to this. I'm sure it won't have escaped President Trump's notice that Obama canceled the Constellation mission to the moon in 2010. And, and that was due to cost reasons and NASA had already spent $9 billion on it. On it by then. A huge amount of money has gone into Artemis. You know, at some points people were wondering whether it would ever happen. I'm sure it hasn't escaped Trump's fact that if, if America goes around the moon once more, it's on his watch. You know, that will be very welcome. Positive.
- [46:52]
C
Sue Nelson, thank you so much for joining us on the line. Science journalist and presenter of the Space Boffins podcast. You're with the Globalist. Let's have a, a roundup of the news from Asia. I'm joined now by Beatrice Siviero who's a Layo based journalist and news editor covering Southeast Asia. She joins us from Vientiane, where it is what about 1340? Just coming up to quarter to two where you are. Good afternoon Beatrice.
- [47:26]
I
Good afternoon to you.
- [47:28]
C
Good to have you with us.
- [47:29]
I
Good afternoon to you.
- [47:30]
C
Well, yes, it's that wonderful thing about the Globalist, right. Tell us what's happening where you are.
- [47:37]
I
So here we are wiped by a typhoon. However, the typhoon has been quite better in the past couple of days. It is hit the Philippines and Hong Kong and Taiwan with a few deaths. However, the moment he Vietnam land it was already 175km per hour. So no big damage in Vietnam at Laos.
- [48:06]
C
Indeed. And it is, it is something that we are seeing globally that you know, these pictures are coming in the fact that the damage is happening. When something like this hits the likes of Laos and Vietnam, what are the long term challenges?
- [48:24]
I
Well, for sure, for sure. Aid, aid support, it's quite lacking as of now. For example, last year we were hit by Typhoon Yagi which was a real monster, honestly. At its peak it was one of the strongest storms in Vietnam and Laos in the past decades. It caused widespread destruction, hundreds of deaths and missing in Vietnam alone. And definitely the long term consequences were Cost and trade and agriculture. The agricultural damage was absolutely massive indeed.
- [49:03]
C
And when you mean if you've only just recovered this from that, from Typhoon Yagi last year to have, have something else hitting you just as bad, it means what for the likes of agriculture and you know, the economic impact will be felt twice as strongly arguably.
- [49:22]
I
I bet. So yeah, I bet the economic impact would be felt definitely twice as strongly. However, thankfully this typhoon has not hit Vietnam as strongly as last year's Typhoon Yagi. However, it had hit Hong Kong and Taiwan and the Philippines way stronger. Hopefully those countries will get back on their feet much more quickly. However, the loss of life remains.
- [49:51]
C
You know, let's move on to another story from the Lao times about the Laos China Railway which has had a transformational effect on where you are. Talk us through this for us.
- [50:09]
I
Yeah, absolutely. That this was absolutely life changing for Laos and the people here. Laos China Railway first of all is a high speed 1035 kilometer line connecting China with the Lao capital Vientian. And it officially opened in December 2021. And since then it has really changed the life of people here. Especially in terms of traveling from the capital to the north of Laos or even to China. It basically cut a 10 hour trip to a two hour. So it was an absolutely life changing infrastructure. But not only for the people here, it was also life changing for the market in Laos and China and the region because freight has really taken off to with this railway with over 67 million tons, tons of cargo transported since 2021.
- [51:09]
C
Now this is, this is obviously a success, a success story. What happens next? Because you then if you have something working like that, there is clearly going to be a bigger vision for all this, right?
- [51:24]
I
Yes, you are absolutely right. There is a bigger, a bigger vision for Southeast Asia and the Pan Asian Railway, what they call Pan Asian Railway. Basically it's a connection between the Vientiane Railway with Thailand and eventually Malaysia all the way down to Singapore. So currently Thailand is building a US USA 10 billion high speed rail linking Bangkok through Laos and China. Right now they are over a third of the Bangkok Nakura Chassima section already and they expected to have it finalized and running by 2030 according to Thai sources. But China is also exploring extending Malaysian east coast rail link to meet Thailand. So that transport not only for passengers passengers but also and especially for the market across Southeast Asia to China would be much easier and faster.
- [52:25]
C
In what way? When you talk about the market, what are we talking about? Where are the benefits going to come from?
- [52:30]
I
There's a lot of export import that goes through the rail link. We import in Lao. We import a lot of products from China as well as from Thailand, but we also export products, especially agricultural products to Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. So that railway would definitely benefit this kind of trade across the region.
- [52:52]
C
Beatrice Siviera, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Laos and well done. Thank you for persevering with the difficult connection. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now let's turn to something for coffee enthusiasts everywhere. The World Speciality Coffee Conference and Exhibition is on this week in Tokyo. Organized by the Speciality Coffee association of Japan, it's one of the region's top events when it comes to coffee. Monocle's Ryuma Takahashi was there for us and sent us this report.
- [53:34]
J
Japan is recognized as one of the world's major coffee consuming nations ranking fourth globally in coffee consumption. However, research from the All Japan Coffee association shows that domestic coffee consumption in Japan fell by 0.4% compared to the previous year, signaling that growth momentum is beginning to slow. Some exporters had already noticed these changes with a representative from the Ethiopian Coffee association noting how China's rapidly expanding coffee market is affecting affecting the competitive landscape.
- [54:09]
E
Previously the Japanese market known the main buyer for Ethiopian coffee, but I don't know for recently a Japanese coffee demand little bit declined, it's replaced by Chinese.
- [54:23]
F
I hope the Japanese will improve buying.
- [54:27]
E
Just like previously, better volume and better quality.
- [54:32]
J
However, Japan's coffee market continues to grow in terms of of its market size. Speciality coffee is driving this expansion. The Speciality Coffee association of Japan reports that specialty coffee imports are rising and captured 3.1 points more market share last year compared to 2022. SC AJ President Kato points to two key factors behind this the diversification of consumers coffee preferences along with the expansion of experiential consumption.
- [55:05]
E
Before the coffee consumer just looking for.
- [55:09]
F
Bitterness and then putting sugar inside.
- [55:12]
E
But now we can find the coffee itself really sweet without sugar and then also we can find really different flavor in it. Japanese consumers value experiences and stories also they are really sensitive to flavor and the quality. So many coffee service person is trying.
- [55:37]
F
To give new performance. Sometimes they call bartenders in their coffee shop.
- [55:42]
J
Elaine Wong, currently working in production development at ucc, one of Japan's leading coffee manufacturers, analyzes the trends in Japan's coffee industry.
- [55:53]
C
I am Hong Kong stipenders champion and currently I am working in UCC Asia Pacific for my impression. The trend of the taste is changing because like many years ago Japanese coffee is the impression is dark rose, more bold taste, but seems like more moving forward to fruity side or people looking forward for more complexity of coffee or specialty coffee. Both important part of the WOOF concept this year, focusing on sustainability and health. Because nowadays when people drinking coffee like after the COVID like many people feel like health is very important. So when we are drinking coffee also will be maybe we're looking forward to how to drink more healthy. So sustainability and health will be the change I think.
- [56:39]
J
Driven by these trends, this year's SCAJ will showcase unique products such as edible coffee and coffee cocktails, as well as exhibitions of the latest, latest diversified coffee related equipment. Kalita, Japan's historic coffee brewing equipment manufacturer famous for inventing the world's first wave. Dipper, observes that the coffee equipment market is similarly experiencing the effects of diversification and the expansion of experiential consumption.
- [57:11]
F
Since COVID more people have been brewing coffee at home and there's been a growing number of people exploring different coffee brewing methods using various equipment and tools. So we want to create equipment that's truly unique for users. Not something similar to existing products, but something distinctive. That's why we focus on made in Japan quality and have been expanding the range of materials we use for drippers, including metals, copper and ceramics. Going forward, we want to dry materials we've never used before, like brick and titanium.
- [57:47]
J
Japan's coffee scene is clearly transforming with experience and innovation becoming the new drivers of growth.
- [57:57]
C
And our thanks to Rima Takahashi for pulling that report together. You may have noticed that Tom Webb was doing the narration for it as well. So thanks to Tom too. And the World Speciality Coffee Conference and Exhibition is on this week in Tokyo and looks like super fun. Well, that's all the time we have for today's programme. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and also to the producers, Chris Chermack, Tom Webb, Hassan Anderson and Ryuma Takahashi. Our research was Daniela Brauer Smith and our studio manager, Steph Chungu, with editing assistance from Hunter Wang. After the headlines. More music on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London. London, but we have a special global countdown. They're going to Portugal and they haven't just got Fernando Augusta Pacheco on board for this one. Carlotta Robello is now going to take part too, so look forward to that. The globalist is back at the same time tomorrow. Hope you can join me for that if you can. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thank you very much for listening. Sam.