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Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 27th October 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London, this is the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, we're at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur. The aim of the gathering is to build economic integration. Easier said than done when tariff wars with the US have been dominating the agenda. We'll hear more about that. And ASEAN admits its newest member, Timor.
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Leste, will now have a seat at the table, not just in asean, but at international meetings like the East Asia Summit and other security dialogues with major global powers.
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More on that in a moment. Plus, why has Pope Leo chosen Lebanon and Turkey for his first international trip? We'll hear the latest on the midterm elections in Argentina.
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And we have been the biggest book event in general in the Nordics. We get some 100,000 people attending every year and I think from that maybe comes the special flair that Helsinki Book Fair has.
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Off to the Helsinki Book Fair we will go. That's all coming up on the Globalist live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in Today's news. Another U.S. warship has sailed into waters close to the Venezuelan coast, with Washington claiming it's engaged in a war against drug traffickers. Two people are being questioned in connection with the theft of France's crown jewels from the Louvre Museum in Paris last weekend. And the airspace above Vilnius airport has been closed for a fourth time in a week after helium balloons were spotted carrying what's believed to be contraband cigarettes from Belarus. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, this year's summit of ASEAN has been described as arguably the most important regional gathering in years. The list of attendees testified to this. There was the US President Donald Trump, China's Prem Premier Li Chang, plus Japan's new Prime Minister and the Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney. Bitter trade wars with the US have been dogging the leaders and the summit's agendas. But the meeting is also eventful for another reason. The ASEAN bloc has welcomed Timor Leste as its 11th member, marking its first expansion since 1999. Well, to guide us through an exceptionally busy couple of days, I'm joined from the Malaysian capital by Adam Hancock, the journalist. A very good afternoon to you, Adam.
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Hello.
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D
Good afternoon.
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So this has been Donald Trump has now gone, hasn't it? Hasn't he? But the whole presence of Donald Trump made the fact that the agenda was always going to be dominated by trade wars.
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D
Absolutely, yes. It was really quite something yesterday when President Trump was here, as he said, he was only here for a day. He's now on the way to Japan. But it was quite a frantic day yesterday. He arrived, he oversaw the Cambodia and Thailand peace agreements which was signed on the sidelines of the summit. And he also signed a number of trade deals with Southeast Asian nations, including deals around critical minerals with both Malaysia and Thailand. And continuing that trade theme were two of the major events yesterday. Firstly, President Trump sat down with the Brazilian president on the sidelines. Now, Brazil are trying to get their tariff rate lowered. They're currently at 50% because Trump is not happy about the treatment of the former Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro. They had a pretty constructive talk, and it sounds like they're going to get to work right away on getting that tariff level lowered. But also on the sidelines of this meeting, there were discussions between US And Chinese trade officials. They wrapped up their talks yesterday, and there were some positive noises coming out of those meetings, particularly from the US Side and the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant, who said that they now have a framework deal in place which President Trump and President Xi will be able to discuss when they meet later in the week in South Korea. And everyone's going to be watching that meeting very closely because they're hoping for a trade deal between the US and China before Trump's threatened 100% tariffs on China kick in on November 1st. So it's been trade heavy whenever Trump's there, it does seem to be the case. But he certainly had a lot of time for Southeast Asian leaders yesterday. Quite a lot of meetings. And, yeah, it was a whirlwind of diplomacy here.
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And has that left the ASEAN atmosphere buoyant, or are people still trying to reel, still reeling from the different approach that Donald Trump takes with every single country he encounters?
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D
I think it's a little bit of both. In all honesty, I think there's probably some whiplash in some respects, because economies in this region, they were battered by those Liberation Day tariffs. Big export markets to the US Were hit hard. Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia amongst them. And then the US have been doing deals, there's various tariff levels now with different countries in the region. But President Trump still decided to come to the ASEAN meeting. He hasn't been to one since 2017. He skipped an ASEAN summit when it was held virtually during the pandemic. So it always makes it quite strange. On the one hand, he's showing little engagement with this region except to slap tariffs on ASEAN member state. But he has also turned up at this summit. Yes, he obviously had the temptation of coming and being part of the Thailand, Cambodia deal and he is going to be in the region anyway. But still he made the effort to come here and meet with the Malaysian Prime Minister, meet with ASEAN leaders. So I think there's some reassurance, he said that the US is 100% with the region. But do bear in mind that even those trade deals that were signed yesterday with the likes of Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia, they weren't lowering tariffs as such. They're setting frameworks for opening their economies up to each other and some pathways to lower tariffs. But it wasn't like he was just handing out treats here during his one day stop.
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And as a result, were the ASEAN leaders aware that, that, you know, the. After the effect that Donald Trump has had on each individual commentary in the block as a whole, there is perhaps, perhaps this, this impetus now that they need to work and pull together mace more strongly because there's this perennial focus, isn't there, when it, when it comes to asean, it's economic integration. Economic integration. How strong a force was that in, in Malaysia last year, yesterday?
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D
Yeah, very much so. And it's kind of continuing today and maybe more so today because President Trump has now left this economic summit happening this afternoon, which includes all of the ASEAN member states plus five regional partners and that is backed by Beijing. And it's quite a powerful set of countries all up when you tally together all of their gdp. And that's seen as something that could act as a buffer against tariffs from the United States. I think it's still an age old problem for countries in this region. They are caught in the middle of that ongoing tussle between the US and China. They need both of them. They need them for defense, they need them for strategic partnerships, and they need them for economic reasons as well. And China has tried to fill some of the void left by Washington's tariff regime in recent times, but still there is a willingness from ASEAN nations to engage with President Trump and Washington. But I think the global trade situation has certainly Focused minds within asean. They've realized the importance of that economic integration that they talk about. And they're also assessing all the countries that they can do deals with, other frameworks that they can put in place, countries based in Singapore. And they're constantly looking for new trade agreements and trade partnerships. So although the US still dominates, I think now there is a clear focus. They understand Trump's position and they're having to look elsewhere to, to get those reassurances.
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And also, I mean, this is moving away from trade. Donald Trump was there for the signing of the Thailand. It was an a ceasef agreement, wasn't it, between Thailand and Cambodia in Kuala Lumpur. How much did that shape the weekend?
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D
Yeah, that was kind of very much the headline occasion, really. Everyone sort of knew that that was the main reason that President Trump was here. He made a very big deal out of signing the declaration of peace. It's a tricky one really, in terms of what to call the deal. President Trump called it the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords. The Thai officials were a little bit more cautious on that front. They described it as a pathway to peace because although it is effectively a bit of a peace deal, it's a series of steps that both sides can take to ensure that the conflict doesn't resume again. I mean, remember, this is a decades old conflict. It isn't something that just happened in July. These border skirmishes, it's been going on for a long time. So it's not like Trump has solved the overall issue. But instead he did bring them to the negotiating table, threatening to withdraw trade deals. He did get them to sit down. Malaysia also played a big role. They hosted those initial talks and they have now agreed upon a series of measures, including removing artillery from the borders. Thailand saying that if all of these measures are met, they will release some Cambodian prisoners of war as well. So I don't know if it's going to hold that ceasefire deal. It's a long running conflict. It's not like this is completely the end, but certainly it's a positive step forward. But President Trump was determined to have his day in the sun when it comes to that. He called it momentous, historic. He talked about how going around the world solving conflicts was a hobby. He said he shouldn't call it a hobby, but it almost is for him. It's something he loves to do. So it was the headline occasion yesterday and Trump certainly got the photo opportunity that he wanted.
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Adam, stay with us for a moment because we want to hear about some of the other news of the ASEAN Summit Asia's Youngest nation Timor Leste or Timor Lesht, depending which pronunciation you choose, or even East Timor has just become the latest member of the block. It was admitted this weekend at asean Monocle's Naomi Shoe, Elegant has the story.
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Did you get at long last, Timor Leste has been admitted to asean, Asia's youngest country and one of its poorest is now the 11th member of the regional grouping, which counts Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and this year's chair, Malaysia, among its number. It is a monumental occasion for the former Portuguese colony. Timor Leste won a long and bloody battle for independence from Indonesia in 2002, and being accepted by ASEAN has been an arduous journey. It's been 14 years since it formally applied for membership, and 49 years since the young Jose Ramos Huerta first floated the possibility of his country joining the bloc. Ramos horta is now 75 years old, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, and serving for the second time as Timor Leste's president. When we spoke earlier this week, he was sanguine, preparing to lead the delegation from Delhi to Kuala Lumpur and preside over his country's official welcome into asean, a meaningful political win and a symbolic and long overdue recognition of Timor Leste's place in Southeast Asia. Timor Leste will now have a seat at the table, not just in ASEAN but at international meetings like the East Asia Summit and other security dialogues with major global powers. Membership will also provide access to preferential trade agreements and open the door to more investment, tourism and educational opportunities. But many of those opportunities will take time and effort to develop. Timor Leste will be the poorest member of ASEAN by significant margin. It makes up just 0.1% of regional GDP, and its economy relies heavily on fast depleting oil reserves. Unemployment and child malnutrition are serious issues, and its fiscal capacity still lacks its Southeast Asian neighbors. But Timor's membership also offers opportunities to asean. It far outranks the rest of the member states on global indexes of press freedom and political and civil liberties, and its constitution explicitly outlaws the death penalty. The nation is a vocal proponent of liberal democracy, joining a group whose members include repressive One party states, an absolute monarchy and a military junta. Ramos Huerta is deadly serious about the work ASEAN membership will require and the level of reforms needed. As he tells me, Timor's membership is just the beginning. For Monocle, I'm Naomi Shuelligan.
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And you can read Naomi's interview with Timor Leste's president Jose Ramos Horta on our website. That's monocle.com just listening to that, we still have Adam Hancock who's joining us on the line from Kuala Lumpur. Thanks for sticking around, Adam. And that push and pull that Timor Leste now brings to the ASEAN table the fact that as the poorest member of the block, it will need support, but it does have this incredibly loud and brave voice in terms of civil liberties.
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Absolutely, yeah. I saw it described earlier as kind of a breath of fresh air joining asean. It certainly lifted this meeting. I would say. They signed the declaration announcing that they were the next permanent member at the opening ceremony and there was a real atmosphere in the media center. You could actually hear the cheering coming from the main hall when they were, when they were introduced and the, the speeches afterwards. They were very charismatic and you know, it was, it was quite joyous. In all honesty, I think it's a good thing for asean. It shows that the bloc still has the capability to attract members. It really now has all bases covered across Southeast Asia, representing huge amounts of people in this up and coming part of the world. And yeah, I think overall it's positive for asean. There's another voice at the table and they will certainly be a dynamic member.
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Adam Hancock in Kuala Lumpur, thank you so much for joining us on Monocle Radio. It's 7:14 here in London at 4:14am in Buenos Aires. While this weekend has seen Argentinians deliver a loud vote of approval to President President Xavier Mile in the country's legislative elections two years ago, President Milei was elected on the promise of cutting state spending, lowering inflation and starting what he called a new era of peace and prosperity. Well, the US President Donald Trump has also been a steady background presence throughout with his financial and political backing for President Milei. Antonio Sampao Sampaio is an expert on Latin American politics and security. I'm delighted to say he joins me in the studio. Good morning.
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Good morning.
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Well, this is a surprise because I think in the run up to this everybody was assuming that Millay's party would get a drubbing and the absolute opposite has happened.
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Yes, it was a big surprise and Milei's party won 40% of the vote, which is much higher than estimated than expected. And especially because in Buenos Aires province where we had, and we covered this here in Monaco Back on 7 September, a smaller vote in which Milei's party got a complete defeat. And in this election they managed to win in Buenos Aires province against the Kishnerista, the left wing Peronist opposition that has its bastion in Buenos Aires Province. So analysts and the media in Argentina are still a bit flabbergasted by that and still trying to understand. But it seems that the fear of returning to the old days of the left wing Kishnerista government and the economic instability and high inflation that were very much present in the minds of Argentina, that fear really won out against, understandably, a lot of unpopular measures that Milei has done to keep the inflation down.
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Let's talk about this because he's brought inflation down from what, 26% to 2%, which is huge. That said, the social cost, pensioners losing their money, teachers losing out, state workers being made redundant or losing their jobs in their droves, that has been an absolutely punishing, diminishing few years for large sections of Argentinian society.
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Yeah, unemployment has gone up, poverty has gone up somewhat, even though, you know, reducing inflation is a very pro poor measure, you know, but at the same time, you know, many people prefer to have a job with inflation than not having a job. And low inflation and manufacturing activity has also been slowing down because of so many cuts and social spending. Many measures to support people with disabilities and support for poor people have been cut. And this electoral victory for Milei is very important because it means that he has vetoed some of the pro poor expenditure measures that the Congress has approved. But some of these vetoes have been overturned. And now with this victory, it means that he almost certainly will have the power to, to restore the vetoes or to not allow Congress to veto him.
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We'll also have a very strong message of stability being sent out to the rest of the world because investors have regained confidence in Argentina. I'm thinking about the. The state oil firm has huge partnerships now with international oil and gas companies. So are we looking at a time when Argentina will be financially stable in the rest of the world dies Now?
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I think we're still a bit far. We still have some work to do and Milei has lot of work to do. He has two more years left in his current mandate for president and a lot can happen still. And many of the analysis that I have been reading from Argentina mention that Milei has to interpret this victory with humility because it wasn't exactly a pro Milei vote. It was also an anti Peronista vote. And we should note that participation was very low, was 68%, which is the lowest participation in a national vote since the return to democracy.
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Very briefly, what's Argentina going to look like in two years when they go to the polls again?
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It will greatly depend on how heavy his austerity measures hit Argentines and how he can manage the fiscal challenge that he has, the repayment of debts that Argentina has, if a lot more austerity measures are put in place and his labor reform will be evaluated on that, you know, he has still quite a lot of work to do for the next election.
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Antonio Zampao, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. Still to come on today's program, suprema.
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Nella chiesa e la mori nesuno e.
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Chiamato accommandare tutti sono chiamati a servire.
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That's Yesterday's sermon from St. Peter's Pope Leo is embarking on his first overseas trip. That message there was the role of the church's love. We'll find out how successful he will be at spreading that message when he heads to Lebanon in a little while. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS Banking is our craft. Let's continue now with today's newspapers. Joining me is Yossi Meckelburg, senior consulting fellow at the Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House here in London. A very good morning to you, Yossi.
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Good morning.
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Now you're wearing, we're wearing padded clothes, everybody, because it's cold. But you're, you're looking incredibly smart. A day of professional, professional engagement.
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Yeah. Some meeting with visitors from, from the region.
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Excellent.
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And of course, seeing you this morning.
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I did, I was hoping you'd say that. Thank you. I'm touched. Right. Good to see you. What have you spotted in the papers?
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So first it's the issue of if we can start with Gaza. And in the Guardian talk about Turkey likely to be excluded from Gaza stabilization Force because Israel objected. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, you know, only if Israel is comfortable with any of the members of the isf, the international Stabilization force. And it makes me think it's about kind of the way that the Israeli government thinks they see only risk, not opportunities. So there are tension between Israel in Turkey. It goes to 2010 in the Marmara incident. But at the same time, Turkey might play also a positive because it has more influence on Hamas. And without Turkey's influence and Qatar and Egypt, probably there will not be the ceasefire. Hamas won't agree to the terms. So the idea is when it's really urgent to have this stabilization force, because we see that how fragile is the ceasefire, this wrangling about who is going to be part of it and who's comfortable with one more point about it. No one thinks what Palestinians are comfortable with. So it's one sided. And any agreement should have both sides feel comfortable.
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This is one of the great problems of what happens after the war, because in the run up to the ceasefire being agreed, it was an enormously important moment for Turkey because it helped to broker the ceasefire with Hamas. It worked with Hamas. We saw President Erdogan doing a Middle Eastern tour last week. But am I right in thinking that Turkey is one of those nations which has gone to the ICC and has accused Israel of genocide? It is not going to be a comfortable relationship, is it? But it is one of those things which is arguably a necessary one.
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G
After a war like this, nothing is comfortable, not for everyone. It's about looking ahead, looking into the future, how to get out of this situation. You know, we can't change. The last two years have been, and we talked about it so many times, horrific. But now when there is a ceasefire and ensuring that it's stable and all sides are on board, and we even see there are around 100 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire was called, they're still looking for some of the dead hostages to return them. You know, it's still very fragile, but at the same time, if this can be also a turning point, as long as everyone behaves, including Turkey, because some of the things that Erdogan says are not very comfortable to build diplomatic, cordial relations with Israel. But if they reduce the rhetoric and move into something practical, maybe there is an opportunity there.
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A
Let's move on to an article in the New York Times about Donald Trump doing the, you know, very much dominating the ASEAN meeting this weekend, which is what we covered a little bit earlier in the program. But there's an article in the New York Times which actually stresses the profoundly destabilizing effect that Donald Trump is having globally.
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G
Yeah, I like one sentence in this. A lot of it is a great article, but one that caught my eyes was Mr. Trump's handling of global affairs is that it will be an unpredictable mix of instinct, grievance and ego. And I think this sums up what we see. On the one hand, you see some achievements. The ceasefire in Gaza, the return of the hostages. It's an achievement, what he calls the eight, maybe nine wars. I Lost count how many he came to. Of course, he didn't solve these wars, but managed to improve the situation there. The fact that Europe pays more into spending on defense, it's some sort of an achievement, but at the same time it's so erratic. You know, if I'll ask someone, on which side is Trump in Ukraine, is it with Putin or Zelensky? It depends which morning we see each other to talk about.
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It depends who the last person he spoke to.
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Probably when he's sending Armada to the Caribbean, you know, and probably try to topple Maduro in Venezuela when there is an air carrier that apparently sank 10 boats claiming that carrying drugs and killing 43 people. Probably against the role of the law of the sea in international law. So it's all, there is so much impulse there. So sometimes it brings to some achievement, but something is so erratic, it's very difficult to follow the direction.
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A
Now, I don't often criticize the New York Times because I think it's an absolutely outstanding publication. What I really wanted at the end of this, which was effectively a very good and thorough list of everything that Donald Trump has done in the last nine months to make everybody lose their footing either for good or bad reasons, what you really wanted at the end of it was this is what the world should do to try to adapt to this. And it is that that's the problem, isn't it? It's. People have been left wondering what to do next. I mean, if you were Mark Carney and you're sitting there thinking, you know, everything got stopped on Friday because of an advert from Ontario with Ronald Reagan in it, and now more, more tariffs are being heaped on, there's no book, is there? There's no, there's no rule book.
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G
So because you're always wrong footed by what is going, and because Trump is so thin skinned and, and he could get upset about an ad in Canada and slap 10% at this rate, if every ad that upsets him will increase tariffs by 10% by the end of the week will be probably 70% extra tariffs. But this is part of the adaptation there is to not expect the unexpected, not to be reactive to him. Let it. Because we know in a matter of few days it might cool down. So there will be 100% tariff one day and then he decides, you know, to remove them all together or decrease them. So it's like sitting a bit with him in the trenches waiting for the attack. Let him release all his team. But think rationally while you deal with someone that at Best is semi rational.
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Indeed and makes Chatham House a very busy place, I would imagine. Let's talk about Ireland's president elect. She was elected this week, Catherine Connolly, a huge victory for her. I think it was 6, 8 and she did very, very well in terms of Ireland's left leaning opposition parties decided to stand behind her.
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G
Yeah, it's because the government in Ireland is kind of center right. The fact that the president, we know it's more kind of a symbolic role in Ireland. But she's very opinionated. She has very strong opinions, for instance of more investment on defense, on NATO, the expansion of NATO, very strong opinions about Gaza and Israel. She has a very interesting background coming from 14 children, family, working class, making her way through politics. Then the labor was not left enough for her left it became independent. So I think she will challenge the government. She will present something. I think also there is a tradition now, you know, if you all remember the great, you know, Mary Robinson being president and then leading in the UN the portfolio of human rights. So I think it's in this tradition of Ireland. I think it's interesting because there are going to be clashes with the government and probably some other foreign dignitaries coming and visiting Ireland.
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A
And finally there's a great article in the Daily Telegraph today about how if you get on an aircraft nowadays there is the possibility that you might get something to eat or drink as western carriers have realized that if you make everybody cross and pay for their coffee, no one likes you.
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I, I waited for this article because probably I need like half an hour to talk about all my grievances.
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A
We have a little time we can devote the rest of the global airlines.
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G
If you feel lucky, they actually fly you anywhere, let alone provide you any service they take your carry on even there is a lot of space in the overhead because they want you to pay more expensive tickets, let alone you have to pay for coffee in the morning and everything. And I think they start realizing according to the Daily Telegraph that you know, even if you increase by few pounds the ticket and you serve people with coffee, we won't be that upset or the need to, to pay for your seat. You'll get a seat at the end. But you know, as in a recent case, I was not even allowed to sit next to my wife because we didn't buy the ticket at the same time. So we were separate for three hours which we survived. But all this idea that makes you actually think do I really want to fly these airlines? When you have, for instance, if you fly some of the airlines to the Gulf and you get all this great service for no extra cost. You think, why can't we In European airlines or in the United States, the.
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A
Telegraph, which is the absolute preserve of the English middle classes, is actually really having a. It's out to get its teeth out for British Airways, actually, because there's an associated article, it says, Is EasyJet now better than BA? And it says yes. So we have this idea, isn't it that, I love the observation that you make that you're made to feel grateful to actually be allowed on the plane.
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G
Yeah. Because I think what EasyJet did in Ryanair, it was race to the bottom instead of saying, okay, those who want really no frill, cheap flight, forget about any service. Fine. But the others will. So what happens? Everyone charge you a lot and give you zero service, which is not a great idea of any service in the economy.
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A
Thank you, Yossi. And if you are a carrier, next time you see Mr. And Mrs. Meckleburg arrive at check in, let them sit together, please. Thank you so much, Yossi, for joining me in the studio. The time here in London is 7:31. You're listening to the Globalist. Now here's a look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. Another US warship has sailed into waters close to the Venezuelan coast. It's added to a growing US Presence in the region. Washington says it's engaged in a war against drug traffickers, but Venezuela's attorney General has strongly rejected the idea. The Jamaican government's ordered mandatory evacuation for parts of the capital, Kingston, as Hurricane Melissa approaches the Caribbean island. The storm's expected to make landfall in the next 24 hours. Two people are still being held in connection with the theft of France's crown jewels from the Louvre Museum in Paris last weekend. One of the suspects was arrested at Charles de Gaulle Airport as he was about to leave the country. And the airspace above Vilnius Airport has been closed for a fourth time in a week after helium balloons were spotted carrying what's believed to be contraband cigarettes from Belarus. Lithuania has blamed the Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of the Russian President Vladimir Putin, for not stopping the practice. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It's 1632 in Tokyo. 8:32am in Zurich. Now Japan is entering a pivotal week in defense policy. The Defence Minister has announced the end of long standing limits on arms exports. And President Donald Trump arrives in Tokyo a little later for his first meeting with the Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. She's making changes a week into the job on the defense policy, spending, regional security and Japan's shifting military posture are set to dominate talks with Mr. Trump marking a clear step away from Japan's post war pacifist stance. I'm joined now by Julian Ryle, the Daily Telegraph's correspondent in Japan. Good afternoon, Julian.
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H
Good evening.
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G
How are you?
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A
So there is a, there's a big change, isn't there? And just looking at what bloom, how Bloomberg is covering this this morning, it says that Japan is seeking to become an international arms powerhouse. That is such a change.
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H
I think that's perhaps over egging the pudding slightly. Yes, Japan is relaxing some of these guidelines that have been in place since the 1960s that have very much restricted the weapon systems that Japan can sell overseas. But to suggest they're going to become a powerhouse might be, as I say, pushing it a little bit too far. Japan, Japan does very much niche products in this sector and they've always produced for the domestic market. So it's what the Japan Self Defense Forces has required and that will not always mesh with what international customers are looking for in arms systems. Having said that, Japan is doing quite a lot in the last few months and years to sort of try to reach out to potential new customers. I think it was in August of this year that they signed a deal with the Australian Navy to produce the next generation of warships for the Australians that are based on the Mogami class.
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A
Of frigate Here now abolishing the current restrictions on the arms exports. I mean, you've just spoken about talking to other countries about what they can and cannot export. But if you abolish the current tight restrictions on the arms export, what will Japanese defence companies now be able to do that they couldn't before?
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H
Well, up until now, Japanese, the rules have been essentially that Japan could export to other countries non lethal weapons. So these are things like body armor, helmets, first aid equipment, tents and so on. And Japan has been quite generous with that in terms of presiding to the Ukraine for example, and other places. I think a lot of anti landmine equipment has gone that way. Now they are looking for bigger ticket items. As I say, there's this frigate deal with Australia and notably also Japan has signed a three way deal with the UK and Italy to produce a next generation fighter. And that's quite a big deal for Japan because in the past Japan has always relied very heavily on the US to get its hardware. Now it's turning that around and it's working on providing its technology into a product that it hopes will be sold internationally. I Think the Saudis are particularly interested in buying these aircraft when they're ready.
- [36:23]
A
What is the reaction to this? Or what do we imagine the reaction is going to be to these profound shifts which are happening very, very quickly, Quickly since Takechi got. She's barely sort of got her name on the door. But these are massive changes, really at top speed. How is this going to shock Japan?
- [36:42]
H
I think Japan has been sort of almost mentally prepared for this for quite a while. It was actually first sort of put forward about 15 years ago under a liberal government, not, you know, not this conservative administration that we see today. It was suggested that it might be time to give up on these guidelines. Nothing actually came of it at the time, but I think the public has been sort of almost conditioned to this happening sooner or later. A lot of Japanese you talk to, they say, okay, this is an economic opportunity, a chance for Japan to sell its technology overseas. But at the same time, they want Japan to return to being a normal country. And those are the terms, those are the words they use. A normal country 80 years after the end of the war. They want the restrictions that were imposed upon Japan at that point to finally be lifted, because this all goes back to Japan's peace constitution, which has so much limited what they can do militarily.
- [37:38]
A
There is a deeper consequence to this, though. Wanting to become a normal country would mean that Japan has to abandon its pacifist principles, which will be very difficult to abandon.
- [37:52]
H
I think there are absolutely, as you say, there's a large portion of the population here which would be reluctant to do so. But at the same time, Japan has just got behind a very conservative government and an even more conservative, smaller parties that are even more committed to spending more on defense. Japan's in a very dangerous part of the world. The Chinese are very aggressive in the South China Sea, in and around Taiwan and close to Japanese islands off the south. North Korea is nuclear armed and completely unpredictable. And we had a missile launch last week and Russia as well. That's on Japan's northern borders. There were three nuclear capable bombers carrying out operations or carrying out drills off northern Japan last week. So clearly attitudes are changing here because they have to.
- [38:46]
A
Very briefly, we have Donald Trump meeting the new prime minister. What do we think is going to be on the agenda?
- [38:53]
H
It's absolutely going to be security issues. Japan is desperate for Mr. Trump to reassure his commitment to the security alliance. Takaichi san lost no time at all in announcing last week, just days after she was announced as prime minister, that she would be very quickly ramping up Japan's defense spending to 2% of GDP from 1%. And that's two years ahead of schedule. Previous administrations have said that's not possible. She's just gone and done it. And this is very much as a sop to Mr. Trump to say Japan is a good and reliable partner in the area. Please do not leave us out of your security considerations.
- [39:31]
A
Julian Le Royal in Tokyo, thank you so much for joining us on Monocle Radio.
- [39:42]
E
Foreign.
- [39:47]
A
39 in Zurich, which is where we head next, because next month Pope Leo will embark on his first international trip. The pope's destination is the Middle east, first visiting Turkey and then Lebanon, while Juliet Linley is former Vatican correspondent and also a regular voice around microphones at Dufourstrasse 90 in Zurich, which from where we join her now. Good morning, Juliet, good to have you with us.
- [40:08]
I
Hello, Emma. Good to be back on air with you.
- [40:10]
A
Well, let's talk about Pope Leo. Why has he chosen Turkey and Lebanon?
- [40:16]
I
Let's take Turkey first. He's going to be there from the 27th to the 30th of November, and this is mainly to promote Christian unity. So he's going to make a pilgrimage to Iznik, which was ancient Nicaea, and he's going to mark the 1700th anniversary of the First Council of Nicaea. Now, we're not going to get bogged down in too many historical details, but that was a worldwide gathering in the 4th century and it brought together sort of 300 Christian bishops convened by Emperor Constantine. And it was he was the first Roman emperor to convert to Christianity. And basically the Nicaea Council marked a new era linking church and state for Christianity. This was a trip that Pope Francis had wanted to make. It was on his bucket list and he really wanted to do it. But but ill health in the end scuppered those plans. And soon after Leo took over the papacy, he said that he was going to be willing to go. And now we've had confirmation from the Vatican press office. So that answers your question of why Turkey, why Lebanon? Well, we don't have a lot of details of what the itinerary will be when he goes to Lebanon from November 30th until the 2nd of December. But it's, of course, a peace promoting trip. And he's also going to want to shine the spotlight on the plight of Christians. So it'll combine sort of support for suffering communities in this very volatile region and also a bit of theological diplomacy, sending a message of hope. Leo has also made it clear that he's expected to commemorate the victims of the Beirut explosion. That was five years ago already and that killed, as we know, several hundred people, causing billions of dollars in damage. And he will be the third pope to visit Lebanon. Emma Benedict traveled there in 2012 and John Pa Paul II was there in 1997 and he was the first pope to go to Lebanon.
- [42:06]
A
Is it just peace or what do we think that Leo is trying to say more generally with this as choosing these two countries as opposed to any other country on earth?
- [42:16]
I
Well, I mean, if you look at any Pope's first international trip, it does send a clear message of what he wants to prioritize in the course of his pontificate. And certainly bringing a message of peace is what Pope Leo has indicated he wants to do with his pontificate ever since he first took over the papacy, papacy in May. And the first words he said was peace be with you. So certainly Lebanon of all countries is going to be very powerful because also, as you know, Emma, it has a very important politically important political system that is distinguished by its religion based power sharing arrangement. Without wanting to go into too many details, but John Paul II second was the one who said Lebanon is more than a country, it's a message. And if you look at it, you know, the president of Lebanon is always a Maronite Christian, the prime minister is always a Sunni Muslim, and then the speaker is always a Shia Muslim. And apart from this troika, the parliament's seats are equally divided between Muslims and Christians. So that would explain part of it.
- [43:21]
A
Certainly, Emma, he follows in the footsteps of Pope Francis, who didn't shy away from controversy when it came to this part of the world. We not only just keeping in contact with Christians in Gaza throughout the war between Israel and Hamas was one thing, but also Pope Francis was not afraid of speaking out against Turkey when it came to the questions of the Armenian, what he described as a genocide. So does Leo have a little bit of smoothing over to do here?
- [43:51]
I
Well, certainly compared to his rather more divisive predecessor, Leo is being seen as a bridge builder. He's certainly, certainly gonna leverage, I am sure, the fact that he has an American passport. Remember, he has two. He also has a Peruvian passport, so that sort of counterbalances it. But certainly, let's look at it this way. He has a big role to play and he's fluent in so many languages and he's also an Anglophone. You can't underestimate in international diplomacy the importance of speaking good English. Let's face it, and this is a man who does that and he is a man who has, has mixed race background, he's got migrant roots. He can speak to so many different players on the scene, on the international stage, he can speak to so many different ethnic groups. He can speak to different countries and different communities. And a lot of hopes are being placed on the fact that he is an American. And right at this moment, with Trump having brokered the ceasefire in Gaza, he's brought home the Israeli hostages. Don't underestimate that. At the moment, an American in the region is probably being seen more positively than Pope Francis would have seen, who was very outspoken. He often criticized harshly the Israelis. He was, of course, calling for humanitarian laws to be respected, as does Leo. But certainly this is a good moment for Leo to be heading to that region.
- [45:14]
A
Juliet Lindley et du Vorstrasse 90, thank you so much for joining us on the Globalist. You're listening to Monocle Radio. Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies, bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft. Time now for a check in with our Balkans correspondent, Guy Delaunay, who joins us on the line from Ljubljana. A very good morning to you, Guy. How's it looking where you are today?
- [46:10]
E
Morning, Emma. Morning, everybody. It's, it's looking a bit, bit gray to be honest with you. But later on in the day I'm going up to Kranska Gora, which is in the mountains in Slovenia, and checking out a very lush chalet there for a Monocle story. So it should be delightful.
- [46:24]
A
Terrible day you have. You have my absolute sympathies. Enjoy yourself and do report for us. While you're reporting, could you tell us what else is happening in your part of the world?
- [46:33]
E
Now, did we discuss before, Emma, the very, very silly story about Albania appointing an AI minister, not a minister for AI, but a minister who is an artificial intelligence? Have we discussed that before?
- [46:46]
A
I think I might have remembered had we done. But just if you could explain rather briefly and as simply as you possibly could, please.
- [46:53]
E
Indeed. So when Edi Rama, the ever jocular and gigantic prime minister of Albania, appointed his new cabinet a few weeks ago, he introduced a cabinet member called, called Diella, a mononym, as if they're a pop star or something. And he said, this is Diella. She is an Artificial intelligence. And she is now a minister in my cabinet. She is the first artificial intelligence minister in the world. And she is going to ensure that all government procurement is absolutely free from corruption, because she is incorruptible and she has been programmed to spot corruption herself. Now, now, that of course raised all sorts of hackles in Albania, where you had the opposition saying, hang on a second, doesn't it say right here in the constitution that a government minister has to be a citizen of Albania? And how can they be a citizen of Albania if they don't actually exist? Anyway, publicity stunt, so on and so forth. Mr. Emma's back with a sequel. He's saying, get this, Emma, Diella is pregnant.
- [47:56]
A
Excellent. There should be offer, maternity, we're assuming, at some stage. But the more more complicated thing behind this is that the use of AI actually is a, as a kind of checks and balances system. I mean, how, how welcome is that?
- [48:09]
E
Well, it's, it's, it's, it's something when, if you're in a country like Albania, where corruption is well known to be a problem, and I think everybody acknowledges that, and there's a large anti corruption prosecution which runs there and has been very successfully prosecuting lots of people, including allies of Mr. Rama, people are aware that something needs to be done about corruption. And if their country is to join the European Union, as it wants to, it needs to get a handle on it. So what Mr. Ram is saying now is that when he says that Diella is pregnant, what he is saying that diella will have 83 children, in other words, other AIs that will be working under her. And these 83 are for each of the members of his governing Socialist Party. So they will be, in effect, an assistant for all of these MPs. They'll be participating in parliamentary suggestions and keeping a record of everything that happens. So, in essence, all of this is about accountability. Supposedly, if this all works as Mr. Rama says, it's going to work, it's going to be about accountability for These government officials, MPs of the governing party and ultimately all of this protection procurement process in Albania. And we all know how much corruption is involved in procurement processes.
- [49:24]
A
Let's move to Serbia. And it is running out of oil.
- [49:28]
E
It certainly is. And the latest is that there's a tanker that arrived in Croatia a couple of weeks ago which was meant to deliver one last load of oil for Serbia via the pipeline which runs from Croatia to Serbia, which is called Yakov. And apparently this delivery didn't make it. Now, this is a problem because Serbia's national oil company is called nice. It is majority owned by Gazprom and Gazprom Neft, who are, of course, Russian, and they are under sanctions by the United States. And the United States have been holding off imposing sanctions on NICE itself. It kept on giving waiver after waiver, which went on for a period of months. But finally it's said we can wave no longer and NICE is going to feel the full force of these sanctions. And that means that Croatia's Yanf pipeline can no longer transport any of Serbia's oil orders through to Serbia. And this is a real problem for Serbia because it's landlocked. It's got no other way of receiving crude oil deliveries. NICE runs the country's only refinery, and it provides more than 80% of the country's petrol and diesel. Diesel plus almost all of the jet fuel. So this is going to have big, big ramifications if Serbia doesn't sort something out. And it thought it had worked something out with Hungary, but then there was a fire at a refinery in Hungary last week, suspiciously enough.
- [50:53]
A
We have but 30 seconds to talk about this. What are Serbia's options?
- [50:58]
E
Serbia's options are, you know, possible nationalization of nice. That's not going to go down well with Russia. Other options are that it finds some other way of securing fuel products from other countries. And it thought it had found this route via Hungary's national oil company, Mol. But as I just mentioned, there, there was a fire at Moll's refinery last week on the Danube, which was exactly where they were hoping these replacement products were going to come from. So it's looking grim at the moment.
- [51:27]
A
Guy Delaunay in Ljubljana. Thank you so much for joining us on the live line to bring us up to date with everything that's happening in the Balkans. We head now to Helsinki and the city's annual book fair, which has grown into the largest literary event in the Nordics. It brings together not only authors and readers, but also publishers and cultural influences from around the world. Well, this year's edition of the event attracted nearly 100,000 visitors. Among them are Helsinki correspondent Petri Bortsoff. Petri went to the fair and met the program director, William Blohfeld. Let's have a listen.
- [52:03]
C
We have been the biggest book event in general in the Nordics. We get some 100,000 people attending every year. And I think from that maybe comes the special flair that Helsink Book Fair has in comparison to other book fairs, is that we are for the broad audience for the broad public. So this is not an event for the book industry, just within themselves or just professionals working in the industry. This is for the readers. And it has been that for 25 years. And I think that is maybe the element that has made it grow to be the biggest in the Nordics.
- [52:38]
J
And that 100,000 visitors, if you consider that, you know, there are 5 million Finns, that's a really large number. And you really, I mean, just looking around, you see people from all walks of life. There's a lot of kids, there's a lot of children's programming and, and it's not an event only for the so called literary elite. Finns read a lot and book lovers come here and they buy books as well. And yeah, it just feels distinctly egalitarian. I think people often when they hear the word book fair, they think of this very philosophical, highbrow events. But how do you achieve this? How do you engage the general audience like dancing book fair does?
- [53:15]
C
Well, we also have the high profile that's part of the mix. But from the beginning it has been so that we, since this has been aimed to the broad audience, it means that we need to find all different kinds of audiences. And it means that we don't consider one genre of literature, for example, to be higher than some others. We try to cater to all types of readers, not only in terms of age, but also in genres. And so, for example, one big new thing this year is that on Sunday we have a big new slot of programming that is specialized on feel good literature. So we try to understand what types of new groups of readers or book enthusiasts there are and cater to all those audiences.
- [53:58]
J
Let's talk about the programming. I think that's also one thing that makes Helsinki Book Fair, as a visitor, for me personally, very interesting that you go really beyond the books. I mean, you have hundreds of events here and it's not only with authors. You have, you know, you have scholars, artists, politicians and much more giving talks. And the talks are not only about, I mean, obviously if you're an author and you have a new book, you're gonna, you have to be here basically and talk about it. But there is so much more and there's, you know, you could spend a whole day here just listening to the, to the talks. Why did you want to have all those talks feature in your program?
- [54:30]
C
The Helsinki Book Fair is a forum for societal discussion, for sure. For example, this year we have all the living Finnish presidents are in different talks here. Two of them are also authors of this year with their own books. But I think that also tells that politicians see this as a forum where they want to be present and take part at discussions here. I like to think that that also tells of the kind of power of the book still. Books still are out or ways to communicate or draw attention to societal questions and have discussions around societal questions around a book. I don't think that they exclude each other or you need to think that, oh, if they have a societal panel, then that's not about books where the author discussions, they feed each other.
- [55:18]
J
And then I think a wonderful thing is also that Finns really come here to buy books. I don't think I've ever left this fair without a bag full of tote bags full of full of books. And there's really nice offers as well. And all the publishers are here. How important is this event for the publishers in terms of sales and visibility?
- [55:33]
C
Very important. I saw you came with your nice monocle tote bag. So we have 100,000 people attending and the median amount of books that they buy is 4.5 books each. So that means that during these four days, we sell 500,000 printed books here at the fair. So for the publishers and for the bookshops, this is one of the most important kind of peaks in their sales calendar is the Helsinki Book Fair. And when you consider all the challenges that that business has in general or outside the fairs, it just becomes more and more important for them that there is this kind of window of four days when people really are here to buy as well.
- [56:13]
J
And Finns are sort of known to be very avid book readers. We have an amazing national library network. The smallest of municipalities have well stocked libraries, and Finns read a lot in schools as well. But does this sort of the reputation that Finns are avid book readers, does this still hold true? And if it does, why do you think that is?
- [56:35]
C
It does. Of course, there are the same challenges here that happen or trends that happen in other countries as well. So there are groups of people in all age groups that kind of drift away from reading printed books. But then there are, you know, audiobooks or digital books. And I think the thing that is happening is that reading books as a hobby is polarizing. But that means that there is the other side of the polarization that still is enthusiastic about the hobby and printed books and reading. And, you know, we're standing here in the lobby of the book fair and people are just pouring in, the 100,000 people. So I think this is a testament of that.
- [57:14]
J
Finally, a Surprise question. I just came to think about it this now it's a local event and most of the books are in Finnish, are Swedish, Finland's two languages. But I think more and more I've been coming here pretty much all my adult life and I think the event is much more international than it was maybe 10 or 20 years ago. And I think Finnish, literally literature as well, is more international. You know, names like Maksek or Paitimstadovci, you know, translated into many languages and many more names as well. But maybe just talk about that a little bit, how the event has changed and how international it is.
- [57:47]
C
And I think it goes both ways. So Finnish authors get their works translated and kind of become international more and more. And then also like this year, for example, we have some 40 international author stars here on the stage. And one trend that is happening in the Finnish book sales also is that Finns buy more and more and read more and more in English, for example, or in the original language. So not only international literature that is translated into Finnish, but in the original language. And so with all these trends, yes, the book fair becomes more international as well.
- [58:18]
A
Phila Blofeldt there, program director of the Helsinki Book Fair, talking to Monocle's Petri Betsoff. And that's all the time we have for today's programme. The warmest of thanks for thanks to all my guests and to the producers Carlotta Rebelo, Anita Riota and Ryuma Takahashi. Our researcher was Joanna Moser and our studio manager was Christy o' Grady with editing assistance by Mariella Bavan. After the headlines. More music on the way. The Briefings live at midday here in London. Hope you can join me for that if you can. And the Globalist is back at the same time tomorrow. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, Goodbye. Thank you for listening. Have a great week.
- [58:53]
E
It.
- [59:36]
A
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