The Globalist – Emmanuel Macron’s Balancing Act on His State Visit to China

Podcast: The Globalist (Monocle)
Host: Vincent McEvin
Date: December 3, 2025
Featured Guests: Nina Dos Santos, Howard Zhang, Chris Chermack, Tom Rountree, Simon Brook, Aaron Burnett, Rebecca Tay, Jessica Bridger
Episode Theme: The diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical tightrope being walked by French President Emmanuel Macron during his state visit to China, and its implications for the EU, France, and the wider world.

Overview

This episode of The Globalist centers on President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China, exploring his attempt to recalibrate France’s and, by extension, Europe’s relationship with Beijing amid intensifying US–China rivalry, economic imbalances, and international security concerns. The program also delves into other leading headlines: US military actions in the Caribbean, Canada’s defense deal with the EU, the latest in global luxury markets, major fashion industry moves, and cycling-friendly cities.

Macron’s Visit to China: Objectives and Context

Segment starts at [02:00]

Macron’s Itinerary & Diplomatic Goals

• Nina Dos Santos ([03:19]) outlines Macron’s three-day trip, including high-profile stops such as The Forbidden City and engaging in “panda diplomacy”—symbolic gestures crafted for optics.
• Macron’s fourth visit to China during his presidency is highlighted in Chinese state media, framing him as a European leader open to bilateral ties.
• The core mission is to “reset the balance” in Sino-French (and, by extension, EU-China) trade relations, given the 300 billion euro EU trade deficit with China, of which France’s share is notably high (46% of France’s deficit stems from China trade).
  • Dos Santos: “Essentially what he wants to do is sort of reset the balance. Will he be successful? The jury’s out on that, though, Vinny.” ([03:19])

Chinese Perspective on France

• Howard Zhang ([04:30]) emphasizes that China seeks the optics of European independence from the US:
  • “What they most want from this visit is some type of appearance that France and Europe is not totally on US side. … They like the French thinking of a more independent diplomacy.”
• Chinese officials value repeated visits from Macron, which they display as evidence that China is not internationally isolated.

Diplomatic Relationships and Macron’s Limitations

In-depth from [05:50]

Macron, EU, and Xi Jinping

• Nina Dos Santos: Macron is a “lame duck president,” his parliamentary majority lost, with less than two years left in office ([05:50]).
  • “He’s heading into the last year and a half … this is kind of Macron’s diplomatic swan song, if you like. And he is to a certain extent encumbered by the limitations of democracy, which Xi Jinping himself isn’t.”
• Macron is constrained by having to represent EU interests as well as French priorities:
  • “He’s taking with him a whole trade mission of the usual French executives … hoping to make some deals for French companies in food and also certain energy sectors.”

Economic Flashpoints: Industries and Green Tech

• The conversation spotlights Chinese subsidies in autos, steel, and especially electric vehicles (“very emotive” for Germany and France) alongside green technology—fields where the EU is losing ground to China.

French Luxury in China & Symbolic Diplomacy

Discussion at [08:12]

• Howard Zhang notes that demand for French luxury brands like Louis Vuitton in China is cooling, a trend somewhat beyond government leverage, but the French delegation will nonetheless try to stimulate consumer interest.
• Macron is expected to seek progress or at least public messaging on sensitive political topics such as Ukraine and Taiwan:
  • “This time is something to make up [for 2023]. There will be some type of symbolic mentioning on Ukraine and Taiwan.” ([08:34])

Security: Ukraine, Russia, and Staying on EU Message

From [09:55]

• Nina Dos Santos: There’s silent pressure on Macron to raise concerns over China’s tacit support for Russia (via tech, spare parts, and energy purchases), which sustains the Russian war in Ukraine.
  • “Macron will probably, one would assume, have to try and impress upon Xi Jinping his vision of how badly this war needs to end soon…” ([09:55])
  • EU officials are “nervous” after Macron’s previous Taiwan comments created diplomatic headaches—he must avoid going “rogue” and must not “break ranks with the EU.”
• Howard Zhang ([11:31]): The Chinese public and media are largely pro-Russian (or anti-NATO), though private views may differ. On Taiwan, “a huge tsunami of nationalist voices” dominates debate.

Notable Quotes

• Nina Dos Santos:
  • “France is in a really interesting position: unlike Germany, it doesn’t have a huge combustion engine car footprint with China, but on the other hand, it has faced retaliatory action … its spirits and wines being targeted by punitive action.”
• Howard Zhang:
  • “The majority [of Chinese online opinion] are supportive [of Russia] and condemning NATO, whipped up by the propaganda machine. … But if you speak to people in private, quite a few people are not happy about Russia’s action in Ukraine, but their voices don’t really count.”

Other Key Segments

US Military Action in the Caribbean

Starts [13:45]

• US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is under investigation for authorizing a controversial “double tap” strike on Venezuelan drug boats.
• General Ben Hodges (ex-US Army Europe) elucidates the chain of command, the importance—and possible erosion—of legal and ethical rules of engagement, and historical lessons on illegal orders:
  • “It is your responsibility to know the difference between a stupid order and an unlawful order…” ([18:10])
  • Reflects on My Lai and the “Nuremberg defense” as drilled into US officers after Vietnam.

Canada Joins EU Defence Fund

At [33:16]

• Canada, led by Mark Carney, becomes the first non-European nation to join the EU’s SAFE defense program, diversifying its procurement options and sending a political signal about North American defense alignment.

News Review & European Headlines

From [21:18]

• Slow progress in Moscow–Washington–Kyiv peace talks, UK-China espionage scandal and parliamentary staff vulnerabilities, and Bulgaria’s Gen Z protests leading to a budget U-turn.
• Simon Brook: “This example of people power means that these tax rises and social security contributions have been at least put on hold if not scrapped.” ([27:53])

Luxury and Retail Market Insights

From [39:04] and [47:02]

• Tom Rountree (IHG): Highlights global luxury travel trends, upcoming Six Senses openings, the allure of destinations like Albania, and the increasing importance of multi-generational family travel.
  • “That’s never happened before in the history of travel ever that we’ve had seven generations traveling.” ([44:24])
• Rebecca Tay: Analysis of Prada’s acquisition of Versace, LVMH leadership changes, luxury’s China woes, and a nostalgia wave in Christmas adverts.

Cycling Cities Index

Starts at [53:58]

• Jessica Bridger details Copenhagenize’s 2025 cycling-friendly cities ranking: Utrecht, Copenhagen, Ghent, Amsterdam, Paris.
• Expands on Paris as a “success story” and the rising impact (and challenges) of e-bikes in urban infrastructure.

Memorable Moments & Quotes With Timestamps

• Nina Dos Santos ([05:50]):
  “He’s really a sort of lame duck French president … this is kind of Macron’s diplomatic swan song, if you like.”
• General Ben Hodges ([18:10]):
  “Nuremberg defense will not protect you from carrying out an unlawful order. It is your responsibility. Cadet Hodges. Lieutenant Hodges. Major Hodges. General Hodges, it is your responsibility to know the difference between a stupid order and an unlawful order.”
• Tom Rountree ([44:24]):
  “That’s never happened before in the history of travel ever that we’ve had seven generations traveling.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:19] – Macron’s agenda and diplomatic mission in China (Nina Dos Santos)
• [04:30] – Chinese perspective and strategy (Howard Zhang)
• [05:50] – Macron’s political position and the difficulties facing EU-China economic relations (Nina Dos Santos)
• [08:12] – The cooling of Chinese demand for French luxury goods (Howard Zhang)
• [09:55] – Ukraine conflict, China-Russia relations, and EU diplomatic coordination (Nina Dos Santos)
• [13:45] – Analysis of US strikes in the Caribbean and military legal debates (Gen. Ben Hodges)
• [21:18] – Review of global and European headlines (Simon Brook)
• [33:16] – Canada’s accession to EU defense funding (Aaron Burnett)
• [39:04] – Future of luxury travel and new destinations (Tom Rountree)
• [47:02] – Major shifts in the global fashion industry (Rebecca Tay)
• [53:58] – 2025 global cycling cities index (Jessica Bridger)

Episode Takeaways

• Macron aims to walk a delicate diplomatic and economic line in China, seeking to defend French and EU interests without antagonizing Beijing or fracturing European unity.
• The China-France/EU dynamic remains fraught due to industrial competition, security dilemmas, and the broader US–China power struggle.
• Elsewhere, defense and legal controversies, generational changes in travel and fashion, and the ongoing evolution of urban mobility reflect a world in flux—where politics, business, and society are rapidly adapting to new realities.

The episode, while grounded in sober analysis, occasionally carries Monocle’s trademark dry wit and urbane optimism, providing both context and color to the headlines of the day.