← The Globalist
Loading summary
Transcript114 lines
- [00:04]
A
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 9 January 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
- [01:09]
B
Hello.
- [01:09]
A
This is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, this deal is of crucial importance for Europe economically, diplomatically and geopolitically. The European Commission President is very keen that the EU Mercos ordeal, 25 years in the making, goes through. We'll hear why and what incentives she's offering. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are at loggerheads as the separatist leader in Yemen fled the country with the help of the Emiratis. What does this mean for the coalition fighting the Houthis? We'll rustle through the front pages and hear how local government officials in the US Are fighting back against the federal border agency ice. Then we'll examine just how legal Donald Trump's latest moves are.
- [01:59]
C
Plus, we learned this week that basically 2026 was giving early indications of being grimly determined to pick up where 2025 had left off.
- [02:12]
A
Andrew Muller will bring us his reflection of the past seven days. From Australia, we'll have a roundup of small screen news. And finally, our luxury markets editor will join me to unpick the uptick in the secondary watch market. That's all ahead here on the Globalist, live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Iran's clerical leadership is facing a deepening crisis of legitimacy as nationwide protests led by young men spread across all provinces, driven by economic collapse and anger over foreign policy priorities. The U.S. senate has moved to curb President Donald Trump's authority over Venezuela as Washington oversees the country's oil, releases prisoners and signals a prolonged roll following the capture of Nicolas Maduro. And Italy's prime minister will make a rare state visit to South Korea to deepen cooperation on trade, artificial intelligence and defence. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now the European Union is edging towards a decision on the long delayed EU Mercosur trade agreement, with Italy now holding the casting vote due on Friday in A last ditch push commission, Ursula von der Leyen has offered early access to 45 billion euros in farm funding to win over sceptical member states as concerns over agricultural competition and safeguards come to a head in Brussels. Well, I'm joined now from Madrid by Ernesto Talvi, who's former Foreign Minister of Uruguay, now Senior Fellow for Latin America of Elcano Royal Institute. And from the northwestern Italian town of Pinerolo by Michele Barbero, an AFP journalist and foreign policy contributor based in Paris and Italy. Welcome to you both. Ernesto, I wonder if you'd outline the EU MERCOSUR agreement. What is it and why has it taken 25 years?
- [04:14]
D
Well, I think that the best way to put it, it's like an institutional umbrella that covers trade, but many other disciplines. In fact, it has more than 20 chapters. So it's sort of mini integration whereby we define the rules that are mutually agreed upon that are going to determine how we trade, invest, cooperate and resolve our differences, all with the very high and demanding European standards. So basically that's what it is about. So it is complex and that's why it was so many, many years in the making.
- [05:08]
A
And Michele, why has Italy emerged as the swing vote?
- [05:13]
E
So essentially, Italy has long been one of the holdouts against this deal, but de facto Italy is playing this game in a very Italian way, so keeping its cards close to the to the chest and keeping its options open. Now it looks like essentially it's been won over by the latest slate of concessions coming from Brussels. And essentially the vote is going to happen later today, needs a qualified majority. So it needs essentially 15 votes, 15 countries voting for, but representing some 65% of the bloc's population. And given how the other member states have said they will vote, basically Italy has become the kingmaker in this situation. And it looks like Italy will vote for the deal, even though, as I said, in a very Italian way. No one from the Italian government has openly and officially said so. But if you read between the lines of the latest statements coming from the agricultural Minister or Meloni, it looks like this will go this way.
- [06:23]
A
And Ernesto, environmental safeguards were central to finalizing this deal. Are they strong enough to reassure European critics? And how are they viewed from Latin America?
- [06:35]
D
This is a top of the line agreement in terms of labor and environmental standards. I mean, it enforces compliance with the Paris Agreement. It has provisions on deforestation, on banning the use of prohibited pesticides. It essentially enforces European standards regarding sanitary and feature sanitary measures and actually has the civil society as a mechanism involved as A mechanism in terms of evaluation and control? I would say, yes, that the provisions are very strict. In fact, and this is very important. Latin American countries were willing to actually go ahead with that in the sense that we understand that this is key for our future development and the complexity and sophistication of our productive matrix and export bundle.
- [07:50]
A
Michele, I wonder how this is all being viewed by France.
- [07:55]
E
So France has been very vocal against this deal for a long time. In November, Macron, the French president, did try to perhaps float the idea of changing tack, changing course, but the backlash was so massive that he had to backtrack quickly. So, de facto, France is one of the main holdouts against this deal. It's the case because for various reasons, both structural and political, one of the main reasons is that obviously French farmers are very, very, very worried about, about this deal, like many farmers, you know, across the continent, with the difference that French farmers are particularly influential and powerful within France. They have, they hold a lot of political clout. They are very mobilized, very used to protesting and taking to the streets. They are very much struggling on, on, on a financial level for other reasons as well. And so, essentially, from a political standpoint, it was impossible for Macron to back this deal. It would have been political suicide. His government would have fallen like the day after, potentially.
- [09:08]
A
Ernesto, I wonder if this agreement changes Mercosur's place in the world, which is obviously increasingly shaped by US China rivalry.
- [09:19]
D
I agree. I think actually it does in a very, very significant, significant way. I mean, our agenda of democratic and economic development is very much in tune with the European development model, which is grounded in a language of norms and rights, environmental standards, decent work, social protection, and multilateralism, which forms part of the aspirational agenda of most of our societies. Basically, what the agreement does is to try to give an institutional architecture and shape to this aspiration. Put that in contrast with the American model, today we are basically a security perimeter. We are viewed through the prism of illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and the Chinese expansion and the control of resources view that against the Chinese model, in Latin America, we are a region where they come to secure strategic resources, a node for infrastructure and logistics, and a link in the supply chains that are controlled by Chinese firms. So actually, the Europeans are offering a model of development for the region that today neither Peking nor Washington are able to put on top of the table.
- [11:09]
A
And finally, Michele, I wonder if you think this is solely about trade, or is Europe signaling who it wants its allies to be in the coming decade.
- [11:18]
E
I mean, certainly this is an attempt for one of the many attempts that Europe is making to show that it's relevant, that it's not entirely dependent on the US at a time when obviously relations with the US are becoming more and more complicated, including for both the Ukraine issue and now the Greenland issue, among others. But I do think this is largely about trade for Europe as well, in the sense that this is essentially a deal that will benefit European manufacturers massively. The problem is that it will have a negative impact on farmers, on at least some farmers. The key here is who's producing what. And that kind of explains why different countries are taking different stances on this. These are not necessarily geopolitical considerations. It's really that Italy, for example, is an agricultural sector that's focused very much on high end branded products which are less exposed to Mercosur competition. Whereas if you look at manufacturing, Italy is more already export oriented, just like Germany, whereas France isn't. It's more inward oriented. And so these structural conditions explain essentially how the various countries view this deal.
- [12:54]
A
Thank you very much. That's Michele Barbera, who is a journalist for afp, and Ernesta Talvi, former foreign Minister of Uruguay. Thank you both for joining us. This is the Globalist. It's 11:12 in Dubai. Hi 7:12 here in London. Saudi Arabia has accused the United Arab Emirates of helping Yemeni separatist leader Aeldarius Al Zubayd flee the country after he refused to travel to Riyadh for crisis talks, a move that prompted Saudi airstrikes on a separatist military camp. It's laid bare a deepening rift between two key U.S. allies and raises fresh questions about the future of the coalition confronting the Iran backed Houthis. Well, I'm joined by Monocles Gulf correspondent Inzamin Rashid Insi. Welcome to the show. Who is Al Zabeidi and what role does his Southern Transition Council, or STC play in Yemen?
- [13:53]
F
Yes, so Adiras Al Zubaidi is the, the leader essentially of the Southern Transitional Council, the stc. It's a UAE backed group which is, is heavily backed by by Abu Dhabi based in the south of of Yemen. We know for years Riyadh and Abu Dhab have appeared aligned, but their strategic priorities have gradually diverged in Yemen. Georgina. So Saudi Arabia's core objective has been to preserve Yemen's territorial integrity and to restore its internationally recognized government. The UAE meanwhile has focused on consolidating influence in southern Yemen. They back local militias there, they've secured ports and they support the STC wholeheartedly, which favors autonomy or even outright independence in the south. And the leader of that group is Adiras Al Zubaidi. Now military forces were seen manning checkpoints across parts of the southern port city of Aden on Thursday. So just yesterday as the Saudi led coalition said that the UAE had spirited Adairs Al Zubaidi out of Yemen. Now Al Zubaidi, as I mentioned, leads the STC and the group last month seized control of Aden, forcing the Saudi backed Yemeni government to flee Riyadh. Now, in a statement, the coalition said that Al Zubaidi traveled by sea from Yemen to Somaliland before boarding a plane to Mogadishu. Now that aircraft, Saudi officials have said, was later tracked to a military airport in Abu Dhabi. And whilst there's been no official confirmation that he's here in the uae, his failure to attend those crisis talks in Riyadh this week strongly suggests that he's no longer in Yemen. The STC have denied that Al Zubaidi has left the country, insisting that he's still overseeing military and security operations in Aden to prevent what they call is a security vacuum. But Saudi Arabia has described that the kind of separatist takeover of the city as a threat to its national security. There were some witness as well, judging you say that Saudi backed forces have been advancing towards Aden after losing ground there last month. And it just kind of highlights, I guess how volatile the situation remains in southern Yemen, but also diplomatically and essentially behind the scenes between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
- [16:41]
A
Al Amin, what does the split mean for the coalition fighting the Houthis and does it strengthen Iraq.
- [16:48]
F
Potentially? I think Iran is watching very, very carefully. But the public, the public rift has been incredibly public, particularly over the last few months. I think it will be very interesting if Al Zubaidi is now in the uae. It seems very likely that he is and it gives the Emiratis a very powerful bargaining chip. I think my sense is that he probably is under Emirat protection. The flight tracking details released by the coalition, combined with his absence from from Riyadh and the stc's very vague denials probably point in that direction. But what happens next? I think the most kind of likely scenario is quiet behind the scenes diplomacy, which they've been trying to do, even though it has kind of overspilled quite publicly. The UAE wants to avoid a public rupture. That's the conversations that I've had with the Ministry of Foreign affairs here. They don't want this public rupture with Saud Arabia, even though at points they can't contain it. And it's particularly at a time as well, Georgina, where both countries are trying to project stability, economic reform and regional leadership across the Gulf. Now, as I mentioned about Al Zubaidi, he could be used as leverage in negotiations, a way for Abu Dhabi to press for guarantees that southern Yemen's political ambitions are protected, whilst reassuring Riyadh that the STC won't push for full, at least in the short term. But what this means between these two nations is that the diplomacy and the ties that they've had over many, many years, particularly in the Gulf, these two powerhouses that are so well connected with the US are probably locking horns more than ever before. And this rift because of Yemen is deepening more and more every single day.
- [18:50]
A
Insi, thank you very much indeed. That's Insamim Rashid, Monocle's Gulf correspondent now still to come on the program.
- [18:58]
G
Hi, I'm Brenda Toohey, the market editor for luxury at Monocle. And today on the Globalist, I'm going to speak about the incredible rise in the secondary luxury market for watches.
- [19:11]
A
This is the globalist. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. Well, let's continue now with today's newspapers and joining me from Zagreb is Monocle Security correspondent Guraana Gurdjik Gharana. Great to have you back with us. Now we've been following what's happening in Iran in our headlines. There's a lot of newspaper coverage of this. What's the New York Times saying?
- [20:11]
B
Well, New York Times is covering this as many newspapers around the world this morning about Iran being in the grip of a widespread demonstrations now for almost two weeks. And what happened yesterday is that authorities imposed a nationwide Internet blackout. So as these protests have now reached every single one of countries, 31 provinces, Tehran authorities are responding not only harshly in terms of trying to curb these protests, but also in trying to prevent people to organize, which normally they are doing by relying on Internet.
- [20:52]
A
Now we've heard of course, that Donald Trump said should Iran kill any more protesters, he will be on them like a ton of bricks. Has he rode back from that at all?
- [21:02]
B
We haven't heard much more commentary from the White House beyond some of what you have already mentioned. But we know what US stance towards the regime in Tehran is and certainly the White House is following this very closely, as is Israel. Of course, Iran has continued testing some of the ballistic missiles and kind of ramped up production following everything that happened in June last year. And we've heard actually just as of a couple of weeks ago when Benjamin Netanyahu was in the White House, that, sorry, in Mar a Lago rather than the White House, that Israel is still very much concerned with Iran's belligerence. So maybe that aspect is one more to keep an eye on rather than now potential response from the United States in this sort of support for the protesters.
- [22:00]
A
Right. Well, US though is getting involved in trying to defuse worsening violence in Aleppo in Syria. The Wall Street Journal has a good piece on this.
- [22:09]
B
That's right. So we are moving a little bit westwards, but still staying in the Middle east where the fierce fighting has been continuing in and around Aleppo, where basically we see what a lot of people have already predicted would happen happened in late 24, early 25, after Assad was deposed and with the new government in Damascus that has trouble actually dealing with sectarian violence. So what is going on in Aleppo, which is of course one of Syria's largest and most symbolic cities, is clashes between the Kurdish led militias, the Syrian Democratic Forces that were reliable US allies all throughout the long civil war against Assad, and the new government which is these days very much backed by the US So this is incredibly politically sensitive for the United States and it has been trying to sort of coordinate by sending different officials, diplomatic envoys to try to, to de escalate and push for a ceasefire.
- [23:22]
A
I'd like to cross over to Australia now. And the Sydney Morning Herald is reporting on the fact that Anthony Albanese has bowed to pressure and he says he's going to have a Royal Commission on antisemitism. This obviously follows the Bondi beach attacks. Tell us more.
- [23:39]
G
That's right.
- [23:40]
B
So following the atrocities of December 14th in Sydney at Bondi beach, we've seen a lot of, of calls from different corners of Australian society to basically start a federal Royal commission to investigate the surge in anti Semitism in Australia. This is backed by figures over the past couple of years really kind of on, on the increase since the October 7th attacks back in 2023. And then of course this, all of this sort of spilling over to Australia and what it has done in terms of the breakdown in social cohesion. So Prime Minister Albanese was first really resisting calling for this type of commission, the kind of Inquiry, because it will inevitably be something that's politically charged in a country like Australia, that perhaps itself, in terms of its multiculturalism, in kind of embracing people from everywhere around the world, where now we are opening up essentially debate on immigration, on community relations, but also in terms of law enforcement, in terms of sharing intelligence and similar. So the chief of the inquiry has been appointed. It's the former High Court Justice, Virginia Bell. And a report is expected by the end of the year.
- [25:13]
A
And I mean, this is spilling out across all sectors of Australian society. There was just a report within the last couple of days that the Adelaide Festival, which runs the Adelaide Writers Week, has banned a Palestinian speaker, Dr. Randa Abdelfata. And although her writings have no connection at all with Bondi, and they put this in the statement, thereby connecting her, saying her writings have no connection with the tragedy at Bondi, but given her past state we formed, the view would not be culturally sensitive to continue to program her. And of course, this has had a huge backlash, many writers saying, well, if she's not coming, we're not coming. We don't know if the board is at odds with the staff and so on. But what we do know is that this has caused an absolute storm. So this is something that is really dividing Australian society. It's a huge, huge story there at the moment. Let's move on to Italy now. We've just been talking about Italy and the mercosur, the EU Mercosur deal and the fact that Meloni is. It is the vote that will make or break this. But she has had a bit of a make or break year, hasn't she? What does the FT say about this?
- [26:25]
B
This is an FD long read that I would strongly suggest people turn to if they are interested in just getting a kind of a finger on the pulse of what's been going on in Italy over the past three years and then what is coming ahead. 2026 is branded as Melon's make or break year, at least in the writing of ft, because this is the last year before she has to call elections in 2027. And it's also a notable year because if she stays in office until September 4, she will surpass Silvio Berlusconi as the longest continuously serving post war Italian Prime Minister. So this will be sort of a case of student outdoes the teacher, right? Because she was. He's very. A sort of, I would say avid student and a follower. And this was one of the ways she actually entered the politics back in late 2000s, early 2010s. So this is a Microsoft milestone that will be notable in a country that is famous for rapid government turnover, but also for Meloni herself and her ability to keep the coalition that she brought together in late 2022 when she was elected. But this whole piece is basically pointing to something else which is a very mixed record because Meloni has been very successful in fiscal discipline, in. In spending restraint. This has helped Italy upgrade a lot of ratings. It brought down Italy's deficit. But at the same time, for all the glory of these nominal figures, if you look at the real, real sort of figures and statistics, ordinary Italians complain that real wages are actually down, especially for public sector workers, and growth has slowed. So there are a lot of different. These comparisons to, say, other southern European economies such as Spain or Greece. And basically Italy is lagging behind when it comes to its potential growth in terms of its productivity growth, competitiveness and so on. And there is also a looming referendum in March on judicial reforms. So something that is coming up just around a bike where Meloni's record will be tested. Even if voters are necessarily interested in the nuts and bolts of this particular proposal for sort of judicial reform, it could be one of the early tests of her government.
- [29:04]
A
Finally, Guarana. Let's go to the Ausburger Alamein and this story about some very unusual visitors to a discount supermarket.
- [29:14]
B
Yeah, we go from high to sort of low to something that's been branded as the bargain shopper. Yeah, I can't believe I'm saying this. I'm supposed to cover security, but this is, I guess, like security of supermarkets in Germany, which is not so great if you have 50 sheep that wander in to a supermarket in a small Bavarian town or Burgsin. So what happened is that apparently someone was throwing acorns, from what I could establish from. From this story, and some of the sheep just got sort of lost. And being that the supermarket has sort of sliding doors and they. They all managed to get in and it took a little bit of time to get them out. But the shopkeeper said what was really fortunate is that they didn't discover the fruit and veggies aisle, which I'm also puzzled about, because this is usually what sort of stands kind of first in different supermarkets. So anyway, they were able to get them out. And now the supermarket has also suggested that they would sponsor for one year these 50 sheep and wouldn't press charges against the farmer who kills them.
- [30:30]
A
Karana, you wouldn't believe it.
- [30:33]
B
The security is restored, at least in Bavaria for now.
- [30:39]
A
Thank you very much indeed. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Iran is grappling with expanding anti government protests that now span all 31 provinces, exposing a widening gap between a young population and the country's clerical rulers. Analysts say repression and limited concessions may no longer be enough as economic high hardship and resentment over regional policies fuel unrest. The US Senate has voted to advance a resolution seeking to block further military action in Venezuela without congressional approval, as President Trump signals years long US Oversight and oil control. The move comes alongside the release of political prisoners and plans for talks with opposition figures even as Trump dismisses an early return to election. And Italy's prime minister will visit South Korea for the first Italian state visit in nearly two decades with talks set to focus on trade, defence and emerging technologies. Both governments say the summit reflects growing strategic and economic ties. This is THE Globalist. Stay tuned. Now for a look behind the headlines. In the aftermath of a shooting in Minneapolis, mayors and locals are hoping to break through in the fight against operatives of the Federal Border Agency ICE. For Monocle, here's Charlotte McDonald Gibson in Washington, D.C. say her name.
- [32:23]
H
Say your name.
- [32:26]
E
Say her name. We collectively are going to do everything possible to get to the bottom of this, to get justice and to make sure that there is an investigation that is conducted in full. But what we do know, the death.
- [32:40]
I
Of 37 year old mother of three Renee Nicol Goode at the hands of an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in Minneapolis on Wednesday was in many ways depressingly predictable. Civil liberties advocates and former lawyers, enforcement figures have been warning for months that flooding cities with thousands of ICE officers, many hastily hired with minimal training to enforce the White House's sweeping migration crackdown was a recipe for tragedy. Police are trained in dealing with civil unrest and non lethal crowd control methods, but ICE agents and National Guard troops who have been deployed alongside them are not. It was in this combustible environment that an ICE agent shot two boys through the windscreen of Good's car. Democratic Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey made his views perfectly clear when he told ICE to get the fuck out of his city. Swearing may generate headlines, but the Democratic leadership of Minneapolis and Minnesota have limited power over federal law enforcement. While a mayor can withdraw the cooperation of local agencies and local law enforcement, they have no power to evict any federal agency from a city.
- [33:45]
H
You can see for yourself what happened.
- [33:47]
E
Was reckless and by the way, entirely predictable. Because we have been saying, the chief and I vocally for I don't know over a month that somebody was going to get hurt or killed.
- [33:59]
I
Before the shooting, Frey had already signed an executive order stopping federal law enforcement agencies from using city owned property for immigration related raids. Beyond that, his options are limited, even if the shooting has hardened local opposition. However, Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz has said he is preparing the state's National Guard to help in case protests over Good's death escalate, going as far as to suggest they could help defend Minnesotans from ice. While that seems unlikely at this stage, the mere suggestion of a state's National Guard in a confrontational role against federal law enforcement demonstrates the X extraordinarily precarious state of US Politics today.
- [34:46]
A
Thank you to Charlotte Macdonald Gibson speaking to us from Washington, D.C. and for more, you can sign up to our daily newsletter, the Monocle Minute. Head over to monocle.com minute. This is the Globalist. It's 8:34 in in Zurich, 234 in Washington, D.C. u.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order pulling the United states out of 66 international organizations, most of them tied to the United Nations Climate cooperation, migration and workers rights. It's the clearest signal yet of the US Retreat from multilateralism, and it comes in the same week as Trump threatened Greenland, Washington's seizure of Venezuela's president and the stated intention to take long term control over the country's oil sales. Well, I'm joined now in the studio by Steve Crawshaw, who's a journalist and former Human Rights Watch UK director. He's also the author of a book prosecuting the War Crimes and the Battle for Justice. Steve is withdrawing from dozens of international organizations lawful.
- [35:58]
H
That's interesting. I mean, so many of his actions are clearly not lawful. In a sense, this I'm not even sure whether, whether it's the lawfulness or the illegality, but I think it's the signal he wants to send, which is so extraordinary. And in a New York Times interview yesterday, I guess it was, he made explicitly that basically I don't believe in international law and or that I will make up what international law means. And so we've already seen that they had, you know, right at the beginning of the presidency, he was announcing withdrawal from World Health Organization. And there have been other things as well, climate, justice, of course, he loathes. So I think that in a sense it's the signal that's being sent, which is him putting such a big middle finger up the rest of the world. The other actions may seem more dramatic, but this in a way codifies the fact that I don't care about the rest of you at all. And he's very explicit in that. He says basically that this trouble about this is that it is detached from national interests, because all of the international bodies. Well, that's the point. The idea is you're working together. And of course, he's rejected that completely.
- [37:08]
A
So why has the response from European governments been so muted and confused?
- [37:13]
H
It's so disappointing, shocking, whichever word you want to use. And this has been a pattern repeatedly. And I suppose from their perspective, from the perspective of European governments, we've seen them frightened of offending Trump, and we've seen both Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, but other European leaders desperately cozying up during the. Clearly, in private worry, but cozying up publicly to Trump, very, very reluctant to criticize. What's interesting is we may or may not be just in the middle of seeing a whoa, we can't go there moment where we have both the French President, Emmanuel Macron, and the German president, Head of State Frank Walter Steinmeier, both using much stronger language than before. So Steinmeier talking about a robber's den, a Reuber Hurle, a robber's den or a robber's cave, that we shouldn't allow the world to become that, where the powerful people just rule things. Macron saying similar things. So I really hope we're at a wake up moment, but it is, to be honest, far too late.
- [38:12]
A
Of course. We've just seen the US Senate, though, vote that he cannot continue attacking Venezuela without approval.
- [38:18]
H
That's interesting. I think for ages, people thought it was true, of course, very dramatically, and Trump won. Oh, that's not really going to happen. Then the worst things did. Even when Trump, too came back, it was like, well, surely that wouldn't happen. That wouldn't happen. And we've seen both with Venezuela and now we've seen in recent days that European governments, NATO governments are taking very seriously the idea of Greenland, which I guess to all of us still seems, surely that could never happen, but it's clear that they are taking it seriously. And I think that sense that really this is a man with no barriers, and not just that he has no barriers, the dangers of that for the world, because it's not really about international law, about which paragraph you've signed up for. It's not that paragraph that matters, it's that do you care about rules in general? And he's made absolutely clear, and he said it explicitly more than any previous leader. I just don't care about those rules. And that is so dangerous in so many ways.
- [39:12]
A
So, Steve, I mean, so dangerous, as you say, if powerful states can pick and choose which laws and courts and institutions apply to them, what happens to the idea of accountability at the global level?
- [39:25]
H
To say it's endangered is an absolute understatement. And you're right. That's kind of the essential question. And that's an interesting one. Where you've seen the dog failing to bark in the past year has been extraordinary where, where Trump has repeatedly taken actions basically to destroy the International Criminal Court in the Hague, which was set up a quarter of a century ago by governments around the world. But pretty much all of the European governments were co founders of the International Criminal Court in the Hague, which stands for the international rule of law and to be against the war crime to assure accountability. The US Never liked that court, but it didn't act in the way that he is doing, which is so many serial sanctions. And it's been interesting that repeatedly, pretty much all the European governments, with very few exceptions, have stood completely silent as he does that. And I think it is until now, it's been, well, we need to talk to him. So we need to keep this crazy guy on side somehow. But at a certain point, they're realizing you actually can't keep the crazy guy on side. And somehow in that dangerous world playground, you need to gang up against the bully and say this is not going to happen. But I think they're still trying to work out how that should happen, happen.
- [40:37]
A
Steve, thank you very much indeed. That's Steve Crawshaw. Now his book is called Prosecuting the Powerful. There's an updated paperback version coming out in which these ideas are examined that's published in February. And because of that, we are going to have you on Meet the Writers very soon so we can explore these, these ideas in much more detail. You're with Monacle Radio. Well, as it's Friday, it's time for Andrew Muller's weekly news roundup. Here's a special edition of what we learned from Australia.
- [41:16]
C
We learned this week that basically 2026 was giving early indications of being grimly determined to pick up where 2025 had left off.
- [41:29]
D
Oh, no.
- [41:30]
C
We learned, for starters, that Earth's most powerful individual, entrusted by the wisdom of the American electorate with the power to end human civilization within minutes of any such whim occurring to him, was now being subjected pretty regularly to the tests applied by concerned doctors to the patients they worry are parting company with verifiable reality. We learn this, this from The President of the United States himself, who boasted that he had completed such an examination for the third time.
- [42:05]
D
But I've taken now three cognitive tests. I've aced every single one of them.
- [42:12]
C
We have not learned why the President's doctors have now felt it necessary for him to take three such tests, at least three that we know about or that he can remember or can count to. But we are absolutely certain that the median American voter would be absolutely content to continue trusting their general well being to a lawyer, accountant, electrician, plumber or dentist being subjected to such a regimen by their physicians, what could possibly go wrong, etc. But we learned that President Trump was as happy as ever to provide announcements to exactly that question. And we learned from the same lesson that it is almost, almost as if the FIFA Peace Prize meant nothing at all.
- [43:00]
D
No.
- [43:03]
H
That blows my mind.
- [43:04]
J
No way.
- [43:05]
B
Blow me down.
- [43:10]
C
Yes, we learned that having spent the season of goodwill bombing Nigeria, the airstrikes.
- [43:16]
A
Conducted by US Africom targeted locations within the Bouni Forest around Waria and Al.
- [43:22]
C
Qasim villages, then threatening to bomb Iran again.
- [43:26]
A
President Trump, meantime, posting a stark warning to Iran's leadership early this morning, saying if the regime kills peaceful protesters, the US Would intervene and that American forces are locked and loaded.
- [43:41]
C
And then, apparently having lost interest in both endeavours, President Trump had instead decided to cry havoc and let slip the dogs of etc at the capital of a particular South American country, Caracas. Not according to those cognitive tests they keep making him take. At least we learned, yes, that President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela was. Was poised to become the third former head of state this decade to stand trial in a New York City courtroom after this guy.
- [44:15]
D
This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt.
- [44:22]
C
And this guy, former Honduran President Juan.
- [44:25]
A
Orlando Hernandez, was sentenced to 45 years in prison without probation by a New York court for several crimes related to drug trafficking and the use of weapons.
- [44:34]
C
And Maduro can perhaps console himself that it worked out okay for both those previous two guys, one of whom ended up in a position to pardon. The other tonight, the former president of.
- [44:46]
D
Honduras, serving time in a US prison.
- [44:48]
J
Walking free after a pardon from President.
- [44:50]
A
Donald Trump over the weekend.
- [44:52]
C
And we learned that he was on hand to reassure an anxious world that he had very definitely thought this latest escapade all the way through, all the.
- [45:01]
D
Way back, it dated to the Monroe Doctrines. And the Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we've superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the Don Road document. I don't know. It's Monroe Doctrine. We sort of forgot about it.
- [45:21]
C
We learned, therefore, and not for the first time, that maybe the way to get Trump to uphold or pursue anything is to find a way to allow him to name it after himself. So maybe the United States, bewildered European allies as of this recording etc could try to interest him in the Geneva Don ventions or the United Nations Charter or the Treaty on the Don proliferation of nuclear weapons.
- [45:48]
H
Just get on with it.
- [45:49]
C
Careful what you wish for. For we learned that agog with the relative ease with which the mightiest military power ever gathered but beneath one flag had knocked over the presidential guard of a bankrupt banana republic, its commander in chief was asking others to come and have a go if they thought themselves hard enough.
- [46:07]
D
But we can't take a chance after having done this incredible thing last night of letting somebody else take over where we have to do it again. We can do it again too. Nobody can stop us. There's nobody that has the capability that we have.
- [46:22]
C
Yeah, specifically Colombia.
- [46:25]
D
Colombia is very sick too. Run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States. And he's not going to be doing it very long, let me tell you. Mexico, by the way, you have to do something with Mexico. Mexico has to get their act together because they're pouring through Mexico and we're going to have to do something.
- [46:45]
C
Greenland.
- [46:46]
D
We need Greenland from a national security situation. It's so strategic right now. Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place.
- [46:58]
C
Land covered with ships. Right O and according to US Secretary of State and Voice of relative reason, all things considered, Marco Rubio, Cuba for obvious and urgent reasons, it's run by incompetent senile men and in some cases.
- [47:15]
A
Not senile, but incompetent nonetheless.
- [47:16]
C
We learned that it is indeed just dreadful when a country is run by incompetent and or senile men. Just imagine that, etc. Let's hear for the first time in 2026 from the general muttered agreement crew. Expecting big things from you guys again this year. For Monocle Radio, I'm Andrew Muller.
- [47:45]
A
Thank you, Andrew. This is the globalist on Monocle Radio. Iq, EQ and AI, three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence. All to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft. As the Northern Hemisphere shivers indoors during a harsh winter May Many of us are clustered around television screens hoping for a little light entertainment in these grim times. But sadly, political rows extend into broadcasting policies. I'm joined now by the TV critic and broadcaster Scott Bryan. And Scott, I was hoping for some feel good recommendations, but we are going to start with a story about the beleaguered British public broadcaster the BBC and the ever divisive Elon Musk. Tell us more.
- [49:00]
J
Yes, yes, we are going to get to some more sort of feel good, great addictive shows in the moment. But I think it's worthwhile pointing out that with the ongoing disputes on X or formerly Twitter about whether big publishers should remain on the platform, following lots of debates and arguments about whether it is providing the environment for the rise of far right right fascism along with deep fake nudes being proliferated on the platform, the BBC has said that they are remaining on the platform, at least for now, that they say that by remaining on X it is a way to fight disinformation. And I think it's rather interesting because if you look at the, the, you know, other publishers on the platform, such as the Guardian for example, they left at the end of last year. We've also had the rise of other platforms too, such as Blue sky and Threads, which is done by Meta and AKA Facebook. And so far the BBC hasn't really invested on those platforms either. I mean, I guess because they're still no longer maybe the same scale that X is, I guess also down to the fact that perhaps, you know, a lot of people are stepping away from social media generally and the BBC doesn't see it necessary to invest in those platforms still. But whilst the BBC is saying by remaining on the platform they are able to find disinformation perhaps, and also influences from China and from Russia, I think others are saying that remaining on the platform means that other people who might otherwise leave the platform are going to stay on it as well.
- [50:43]
A
And I mean such a bad time for Tim Davy who is about to step away.
- [50:48]
J
Yes, I mean I think the BBC is certainly a lot of interest this year in terms of where the BBC heads next. Of course, the Director General, the role that he was in, he's stepped down from it or is stepping down from it. Applications for the next Director General closed at the end of December and then I think we'll have an idea what a short list of candidates will be and whether that'll be people from within the BBC or outside the BBC. I think a big question is of course that the BBC is heading into charter renewal. This is when they negotiate with the government in regards to the next 10 years of broadcasting within the UK and it comes at a pivotal time. The rise of streaming services, of course, but also the ongoing Trump sort of allegations of. It's such a long, complicated story, isn't it?
- [51:40]
A
Editing over a program. Yes. I want to move on us on because we promised some feel good recommendations and there is a. And this is actually good for the BBC because this is something that I was very surprised. It's a sort of return of the water cooler moment. The fact that this morning everybody came into the studio and we were all discussing last night's edition of the Traitors. Do you think this is because it's a metaphor for our times? It's all about, you know, subterfuge and lying and all of the.
- [52:11]
B
The rest.
- [52:11]
A
Rest of it.
- [52:12]
J
I think that is a way that it can be read into. I think more of it is actually just the fact that it's just very clever storytelling. And it's also the fact that in reality for so many years there was this idea that it could be compartmentalized and aim for a certain set set of audiences. So for example, let's say Love island, you know, these are people who are fundamentally within their 20s. But then the fact that when the series, which is only a few years old, initially ticked picked up, it was the fact that it contained people from every single background from different generations throughout the uk I think a reason why it's taken off is just because it is story produced really, really well. It's done by a company in the uk, Antical Studio Lambert, who also do Race across the World and Gogglebox, other big UK formats. And they are just masters of editing and also getting the right people on board as cast. And I think that is certainly the case too. And I think if you look at the audiences, I mean the figures come through in different stages. But we've already at the case now where this current series, in terms of linear viewing, in terms of people tuning in live, is already higher or at the same point as the amount of people tuning into the last series. Now, part of that's because of the optavizing, the success of the celebrity version which aired in the autumn last year. But I think it's just the fact that this is a show that defies expectations. So many other programs have tried to emulate its success and none of them come close to it as this one.
- [53:40]
A
That's absolutely right, Scott. Thank you very much indeed. That's Scott Bryan, TV critic and broadcaster. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Secondhand luxury watch prices are rising again after a long slump. Buyers are moving away from big sports watches and showing more interest in smaller, smarter designs. To find out why, I'm joined in the studio now by Monocle's luxury markets editor, Brenda Tuohy. Brenda, welcome. I can see that you can only wear a watch on one arm because the other's in a sling.
- [54:17]
G
Yeah, it's really annoying. I tripped and fell in Zurich and.
- [54:20]
A
Broke my shoulder very dramatically, I'm told.
- [54:23]
G
Yes, I know. At 4 o' clock in the afternoon. Just tripped over my own big feet. Wow.
- [54:28]
A
There you go. But you still do have a watch on. A very beautiful watch. What is that?
- [54:33]
G
That is a Piaget Polo 79. So it was created and manufactured in 79. Funnily enough, Piaget did bring out a version a couple of years ago in yellow gold and last year in white gold. Not with diamonds, though that's probably going to be in the future. But there is a craze, a real drive now for watches that are elegant and different and tiny. I think that Timothy Chalamet has done a lot to drive that forward. He wears very beautifully the Cartier Benoit, which is a gorgeous oval shaped, sculptural, tiny little watch. Works both on men and women. And there's a real craze for individual looking watches. I remember a few years ago seeing a Chopard be mad ice cube watch in red resin and with a little scatter of diamonds on the face. And it was really quite reasonable. But now you wouldn't be able to find one for under 3,000. It's a watch from the 1970s that is just so desirable. It's been a real roller coaster. I mean, obviously there are those who still love a big, chunky watch, and I think it just depends on what you like and maybe the size of your wrist. But there are certainly a lot of us who are looking for something a little bit more, you know, just slim down. And as I've said before, watches as jewelry are huge from all of the brands. You know, nobody's holding back when it comes to gemstones, diamonds, you know, embellishment for all of those watches. And I think there is a total desire in women's watches for femininity because.
- [56:19]
A
Of course, nobody needs them to tell the time anymore. We can just look at our devices. So which brands are doing particularly particularly well in the secondary market?
- [56:26]
G
Cartier is doing so well. The watch trading platform Kronos24 said that last year they saw a jump of 8%. Gen Z are mad for watches. It's just a real talking point. And I think that the entry level watch now, whereas it might have been something quite, you know, obvious and conservative now is not. People, I suppose, are just much braver about their choices and their desire to have a watch that speaks about them.
- [57:01]
A
And pretty much celebrity driven. I mean, you mentioned Timotheus Chalamet.
- [57:06]
G
Yes, I think Taylor Swift has done a lot. You know, she likes a watch as a piece of jewelry and people have maybe more than one watch. And the secondary market for watches is a really, really great place to buy watches. If you can't buy them in the, you know, in the first instance, and.
- [57:29]
A
Because these are younger buyers, they're less likely to be able to afford that.
- [57:32]
G
But to be honest, I mean, gone are the days, I think, where you were going to get a bargain in the secondary market. I think people have really cottoned onto that, including some of the houses themselves. So it's really rarity. You know, if you can't get it in the shop, you might have to go to a watch trading platform and try to get a hold of it there.
- [57:53]
A
Brenda, you're off to Watches and Wonders in the spring. This is a great trade show. What will you expect to see there? Given all that you've said about these.
- [58:00]
G
Recent trends, I think that we will absolutely still see a lot of watch houses. Looking back, nostalgia, I think we're going to see fabulous colored hard stones, you know, malachite, lapis, tiger's eye, very, very much on view now. And colored gemstones, 100% individual watches, smaller watches, slim, slim, slim watches. Bulgari, the masters of creating watches, you know, as thin as a wafer.
- [58:33]
A
It sounds wonderful. Gosh, I'd love a Tiger's eye watch. That sounds amazing.
- [58:37]
G
It would be fabulous. I remember having one a very long time ago. I think I need another one.
- [58:42]
A
I think you do. I think we both do. That's our, that's our list out there, universe.
- [58:47]
G
Bring it on.
- [58:49]
A
Brenda Toohey, Monocle's luxury markets editor, thank you very much for joining us on the Globalist. And our time is up. Thanks to our producers, Angelica Jobson, Laura Craig and Chris Chermack, our researcher, Annalise Maynard, and our studio manager, Elliot Greenfield, with editing assistance from Mariella Bevan and Steph Chungoo. After the headlines. There's more music on the way. The Briefing is live at midday in London, and the Globalist returns at the same time on Monday. I'll be with you tomorrow. For Monocle on Saturday, I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.