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Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 18th February 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
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Hello.
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This is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, we'll start in Geneva with an update on the two major diplomatic meetings taking place there. Ukraine and Russia are talking and so are the US And Iran. Our analysts will bring us up to speed.
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B
Then it all comes down to oil. If you stop him from selling his oil, I think in six months he'll run out of money to continue to execute this war.
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A
We'll hear from Bill Browder, formerly the largest foreign portfolio investor in Russia, about how Russia's economy continues to hold up. Plus, we'll have an overview of the papers from our Paris studio with senior producer Laura Kramer. Laura, what do you have for us?
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We'll begin in France where nine people were arrested following the death of a far right activist in Lyon. We'll then cross to Romania and Bulgaria to discuss the closure of Radio Free Europe there. And we'll chat shopping malls in China.
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And then we're going to hear what Emmanuel Macron is up to in India. Our man in the Balkans will give us an update from the region. And then we'll cross to Japan. The country was bracing itself for an influx of Chinese tourists for Lunar New Year, but they never showed up. We'll find out why. And finally we'll bounce to the Winter Olympic Games to hear from our team in Milan. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Peru's congress has impeached interim President Jose Herry just four months into his term over undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman. The Vatican has refused to join Donald Trump's Board of Peace, saying global crises should be handled by the United Nations. And Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte has confirmed she will run for president in the 2028 election. Do stay tuned to Monaco Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, two sets of high stakes talks are unfolding in Geneva this week, placing the Swiss city back at the center of global diplomacy. One track brings representatives linked to Ukraine and Russia back into the same diplomatic orbit with territory and security once again. The core fault lines the sees indirect talks between Iran and the United States over Tehran's nuclear program with cautious signs of movement but heavy military movement from both sides in the background. So we're going to look at both, starting with Ukraine and Russia. I'm joined here in the studio by the political risk and Russia analyst Charles Hecker and down the line from Zurich by Monocle Security correspondent Guraana Gurgic. Good morning to you both. Guraana, what exactly is is on the table now between Ukraine and Russia compared to earlier rounds of talks held elsewhere?
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Well, the talks that started yesterday in Geneva as part of this US Diplomacy without diplomats strategy, as David Sanger and Anton Troynowski out of New York Times referred to it, and I think that's a very apt sort of way of describing it, are basically succeeding to earlier meetings that happened in Abu Dhabi and that had very little concrete outcomes other than prisoner swaps. So expectations going into this round have been relatively low. Moscow is sticking to its territorial demands, of course, demands of Ukraine renouncing NATO membership, limits on imposing limits on its armed forces and all of the other things that were on the list of that almost never ending sort of proposal of points that would ultimately come in any kind of peace agreement if we get to that. But I think in terms of what the first day at least of the talks yielded was a very important soundbite coming out of Ukraine and President Zelensky in specific, who basically talking to Axios, the US Portal, said that it's not fair that President Trump is repeatedly calling on Ukraine rather than Russia to make concessions for peace. So this is a bit of a change of tune, at least from the Ukrainian side, where actually at least according to reports, we do have a little bit of a disagreement on how much Ukraine should cede to the pressures from the United States or how much it should actually stick to what it's been saying that it wants to recover, of course, its territorial integrity.
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A
And Guarana Russia has continued military pressure while talks are underway. How does that shape the credibility of the entire process?
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D
Well, that's exactly what's been going on now for the past year at least. We've gone from month to month where records are broken in terms of the number of missile strikes, of drone attacks, of casualties that we see all across Ukraine of, you know, every month there is a report of yet another biggest attack so far on either energy infrastructure or some of the key cities, including, of course, the capital, Kyiv. So in that sense, it's very hard to believe that for all this time that Russia has been talking the kind of talk of coming to the negotiation table, starting actually from last year around this time. If we recall when those first talks started happening after President Trump's administration came to the office, it's hard to see how they are actually walking the walk because none of the behavior so far has been pointing in that direction, at least from coming from Kremlin.
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Gurana, thank you very much, Charles. How does Washington see these two Geneva tracks, Ukraine and Iran fitting into its wider foreign policy strategy?
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E
Yeah, that's a very good question because the United States was supposed to be withdrawing from the international stage and was supposed to be conducting an America first foreign policy. Instead, the United States has an incredibly crowded foreign policy agenda. And Iran and Russia, Ukraine are just part of of an agenda that includes now Venezuela, that has always included China, that includes a number of trade disputes around the world. And also we have, I believe tomorrow the start of the first meeting of the Board of Peace, which adds yet another moving part to an American foreign policy that was supposed to be stripped back patriotic, non engaged and inward focusing. And for now, the focus of American diplomacy seems to be diffuse and spread.
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A
Incredibly thin and spearheaded by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. They are obviously playing a huge role in these talks. Why are they being used as envoys?
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E
Yeah, this is a really interesting.
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F
Move.
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E
From the United States. And, you know, it's not new because Jared Kushner was a feature in the White House in the first Trump presidency. These are individuals that President Trump personally and professionally, forgive the use of the expression trusts, and he has invested in them enormous power, I think to the detriment of political institutions in the United States, like the State Department, for example, and like the National Security Council. I think this is in part a reflection that Trump wants as his emissaries people that have a similar mindset to him. And I think this is also a reflection of the fact that American diplomatic capacity is stretched absolutely paper thin. The State Department, the National Security Council have been doged. They've seen people leave, they've seen people retire, they've seen people reassigned. And these two guys are carrying the burden of a fairly pared back diplomatic capacity. You know, almost, you know, not quite single handedly, double handedly.
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I want to bring in Tara, Tara Kangalu now, who's a journalist for NBC, cnn, Al Jazeera and others. As well as the author of the book the Heartbeat of Iran. Tara, where do the US Iran talks stand this morning? Has anything been agreed so far?
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Good morning. I think the only thing that has been agreed is let's continue to have a conversation. And the way I look at these talks is sort of let's talk to talk to, then talk and potentially deal and you know, come up with some form of framework over a potential negotiation. And I know that sounds complicated, but that's pretty much what it is. They're talking to talk and, and I believe they' another round scheduled for the next two weeks. But of course anything can happen. I want to point out that back in June, during the 12 day war on June 19th, President Trump came and said I want to give two weeks to Iran to come to some sort of diplomatic engagement. And three days later he launched that, the Night Hammer operation and bombed Iran. So I say that to add context because anything right now is possible. And quite frankly, I don't believe that the risk of a military confrontation is any lower given these talks.
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A
I mean, just talk to us a little bit then about the flexing of military muscle on, on both sides.
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G
Of course. I mean, now we have another, in fact the largest carrier, the Ford carrier, nearing the the coast of Iran. And at the same time, Iran's only, only point of leverage in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is the Strait of Hormuz that was shut, and I use this term carefully, just for a few hours because they were doing some military drills. And again, we have to understand that in Iran there are extremely hard line radical factions that for the longest time have behaved roguely in any moment of diplomacy between the United States and Iran and they continue to do so. And at the same time, Donald Trump, as he said himself, as an armada. And in addition to that, multiple countries host bases for the United States, Saudi, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq. So Iran is surrounded by the possibility of an all in war. But of course, experts, I'm not a military experts, but experts have said that if the United States wants to carry a full military intervention against the Iranian regime, they need boots on the ground. And quite frankly, all that said, I don't think the, the president is in a position to carry such conflict just months before the midterm elections and that's not what he wants really.
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Charles, what do you think? I mean, would that be a US Priority right now? What's most important to Washington?
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Well, I think what's most important to Washington right now with respect to Iran is making sure that Iran can't develop a domestic nuclear capacity. And what the United States wants to do is shut down enrichment. Iran is asking for sanctions relief in exchange for that and fairly dug in hard on that position. What seems to have fallen by the wayside was the response to the Iranian protests and President Trump's promise to sort of protect the Iranian people and have their backs. But the main focus appears now, you know, with threats against the background of, you know, regime change or military action. The focus is to choke Iran's domestic nuclear development.
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And Charles, what risks are there for Washington if either diplomatic track, that's Ukraine, Russia and Iran stalls?
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Yeah, well, both of them will. Both of these will stall. And as we've been discussing this morning, we're talking to talk and what the United States seems to be doing with Ukraine. Russia is indulging Russian recalcitrants and Russia's dug in position on territory. What happens is that sooner or later the United States will say, you know, a pox on all your houses and walk away from Russia, Ukraine. The United States with the amount of military hardware that it's put on the shores of Iran probably can't afford to do that right now, as we saw what happened with Venezuela. But you know, the United States is in a very, very difficult position with Iran because any sort of activity there does threaten a larger and much more complex regional conflict.
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Charles, thank you very much indeed. That's Charles Hecker, political Risk and Russia analyst Ghorana Gurgik, Monocle security correspondent and Tara Kangalu, who's a journalist for NBC, CNN and Al Jazeera and the author of the Heartbeat of Iran. This is the globalist. As negotiations continue on the nearly four year long war in Ukraine, European delegates at the Munich Security Conference debated just how to end Russia's invasion. Debates were held in the Bavarian capital over whether the military, diplomatic or economic paths were best to finally secure peace. The EU has imposed nearly two dozen sanctions packages against Moscow and yet the Russian economy seems to be doing better than expected. Monocle's Andrew Muller sat down with Bill Browder, CEO of Hermitage Capital Management and investment advisor to the Hermitage Fund, formerly the largest foreign portfolio investor in Russia. Andrew started by asking him how Russia's economy has been able to hold up even with years of international pressure.
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Well, I think that there's one huge loophole. So the answer is that sanctions have worked, but Russia has one major opportunity that we still need to close off. We've been too scared to touch the Russian oil. There have been various types of sanctions. The first was what they call the price cap. We said, okay, we don't want them to make above a certain price. What did the Russians do about that? They said, well, how are you going to stop us? And we said, well, you can't use tankers. And so they said, we're going to create our own shadow fleet of tankers. And they bought all these like 35 year old rusting out tankers, filled them up with oil, ignored the price cap. These old tankers were ferrying the oil from Novoriskysk to India and China and Turkey. And the Russians continue to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year from the sale of oil. And so the Russian economy is not doing well. They're definitely suffering, but this oil money is keeping them afloat, and that's what's allowing Putin to fund his war. And so I'm actually here at the Munich Security Conference with one very simple pitch, which is that there's eight oil refineries, two in China, four in India, and two in Turkey that buy almost all the Russian oil. And instead of price caps and sanctions on shadow tankers, it's very simple. We should go to these oil refineries. When I say we, I mean the European Union, the United States, uk, et cetera. And we should give them an ultimatum. You've got 12 weeks to find some other source of oil on 12 weeks in one day. If you buy another barrel of Russian oil, then you can't do business in the west anymore.
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H
What's your sense, though, of why this has still taken so long? I've heard more than once this weekend, if we had just given Ukraine everything it wanted early in 2022, they could actually have won the war. If the collective will had been there to completely tank the Russian economy in early 2022, could that have been done?
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B
Yeah, there's no question that this could have been done. I have a lot of good things to say about U.S. foreign policy in the previous administration. But the one thing I can be very critical of was that it was highly cautious at every step of the way. Too little, too late on everything. And this is one of the things, and it's not productive to like, be looking back and say, woulda, coulda, should have. We are where we are. What do we do right now? And the answer is very simple, that Putin, he will continue to execute this war for as long as he has the resources to do it. How do you prevent him from having the resources? It all comes down to oil. If you stop him from selling his oil, then he won't have the money. If you stop these oil refineries from buying the oil, I think in six months he'll run out of money to continue to execute this war.
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H
Do you subscribe to the view, though, which I'm sure you have heard, that that caution you talk about is at least in part generated by a fear of what happens then, like when Putin can't actually fight this war anymore, when it becomes clear to him, and more to the point, clear to the Russian people, and perhaps more to the point, clear to his inner circle, that this has been a disaster and there's no way out of it.
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B
If that is the argument, that's a pretty dumb argument to say we don't want to put his back to the wall. We need to put this guy's back to the wall. He's a bad guy. He's doing terrible things. He's killing innocent Ukrainians every day. He's a terrorist. He's got to be stopped. And he's done a good job of convincing people of all sorts of things. But at the end of the day, and by the way, they're busy, you know, spending money on social media, spending money on far right candidates in different countries, spending money on TikTok doing all sorts of crazy stuff. But at the end of the day, it's pretty simple. He's a very bad guy who's done a lot of really bad stuff over a very long period of time. He's an indicted war criminal. We have to stop him. And anybody who's trying to show restraint in stopping him, that's just a terrible, terrible strategy. That's sort of appeasement. We all know where appeasement gets us, and that shouldn't be done.
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H
Well, on that thought, do you think that such peace talks as are being conducted are actually going anywhere at all, or is that just Russia phoning in the bare minimum so it can pretend to everybody else and perhaps itself, that it is actually searching for a solution.
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B
Russia's not interested in searching for a solution. Russia is interested in outright total victory. That's all they want. I mean, Putin is a total liar in every respect except for one. He's been very honest about what he wants in Ukraine, and what he wants in Ukraine is not a peace deal. He has no interest in peace. What he wants in Ukraine is subjugation of Ukraine. He wants Ukraine to be part of Russia. He doesn't want Ukraine to be a sovereign, independent country. He's made that clear. Everybody's made that clear. Not just him, his foreign minister, his propagandists everyone completely make it clear they're not negotiating anything. All they're doing is trying to keep Trump from imposing these oil sanctions, which he had threatened to do before. And the best way to tell Trump, don't do these oil sanctions is to say we're involved in a very complex, delicate negotiation. If you do anything like that that will upset this complex, delicate negotiation.
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H
Just as a final thought, then how concerned are you about the prospect of what we might think of as a bad, unwieldy, lopsided peace deal being forced on Ukraine? Do you share the view that that would just store up potentially worse trouble further down the track?
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It's a disaster. But I'm not so concerned about it for one simple reason, because it's not going to happen. I don't think that the Russians have any intention of agreeing to any peace deal because they want a full, absolute, total victory. And I think that Putin is just playing Trump along so that he can carry on with his grinding war of attrition. And what he's hoping for in this war of attrition is that time is on his side, that the AfD will win in Germany or the Marine Le Pen National Front in France will win and all of a sudden Europe will be fractured. He'll get the same victory that he had with Donald Trump cutting off military aid. He's hoping that's how he's going to end up victorious, not through any peace deal or any of this negotiation.
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Bill Browder, CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, there speaking to Monocle's Andrew Muller at the Munich Security Conference. And for more from our coverage of the conference, do tune in to the special edition of the Foreign Desk. It airs this Saturday and at midday, London time now, still to come on.
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The programme, I'm Monocle's man in the Balkans, Guy Delaunay, and my roundup from the region includes a former president facing war crimes charges and an AI minister facing accusations of identity theft.
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This is the globalist craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook and obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. It's 8:22 in Paris, 7:22 here in London, and we're going to continue now with today's newspapers. And joining me from our studio in Paris is Monocle senior producer Laura Kramer. Laura, I have been salivating over your Instagram posts of fabulous breakfasts and dinners and shopping in Galerie Lafayette and so on. Are you having a wonderful time there?
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C
I am, except for speaking of the Galerie Lafayette, I paid accidentally €35 for two dragon fruit there yesterday.
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How did you do that? By accident.
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C
The very charming fruit seller. I was just so intrigued by what he was saying to me that I didn't even notice how much they were. So, yeah, dragon fruit is definitely not in season right now, hence the 35 year old. If our bosses are listening, I will not be expensing that.
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A
Well, we're going to talk about shopping malls a little bit later on. But first of all, the story that really has gripped all of France. So as we know, on Thursday, February 12th, there was a fatal attack on a student who was a far right activist. He was beataly brutal on a Lyon sidewalk. Now there has been some movement on this case. Nine arrests made.
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C
Yeah, it's a story in Le Monde, but of course it tells all over Le Parisienne, La Figaro as well. As you said, nine people have been arrested over the fatal beating. Canton Duron died after being attacked last week on the sidelines of this far right protest against a left wing politician who was the mep, Rima Hassan, who is speaking at a university. Now. Prosecutors say seven men and two women were detained in the Lyon region as part of the murder investigation. Among the suspects, which makes things quite tense, is an assistant to a member of parliament from the hard left France Unbowed party. He has since said he will be firing that assistant. There is video that aired here in France. It showed hooded individuals surrounding the victim. And now investigators are working to determine individual responsibility. Now I think it's a really important case that's been brought up because it's really fueled tension between France's far right and hard left ahead of municipal elections which are happening next month. And of course the 2027 presidential race in which the hard right National Rally Party is seen as having the best chance of winning the top job. So it's a case that's really intensified concerns ahead of those events about escalating political violence in France.
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A
Well, let's move on from where you are now to where you're originally from. And that is Romania. Radio Free Europe's Romania Service and indeed the Bulgarian service are set to close in March. What's the background on this?
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C
Yeah, we have been hearing about it and now we know that it's set to happen at the End of March, the Prague based broadcaster has been essentially forced into major cuts following reduced US government funding. Now the closures followed the shutdown of its Hungarian service late last year as well. And it all stems from funding reductions to the U.S. agency for Global Media under the Trump administration. Now Congress, Congress had approved funding for 2026. The budget is roughly about 25% now, lower than previous years. So a lot of their freelancers have been let go in Romania, where the service actually operates there as Europa Libera. Media analysts and journalists there, people I've been speaking to have been warning about how it's a move that really weakens investigative journalism and it's already pressured media landscape there. The outlook that had been relaunched in 2018. Among concerns about disinformation and democratic backsliding, especially due to Russian interference and the war in Ukraine and over the border from Romania. The Moldovan service is reportedly secure for the year, but its long term future may depend on external funding as well.
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A
And I mean these radio stations are so important in terms of freedom of speech, access to information and so on. It's a vital lifeline. It's a shocker that this is what's happening. Let's go back to shopping. Yeah, let's talk about shopping. So can I just tell you a story first, please. I was, I was on a train yesterday from the middle of nowhere where I'd been talking about books in some town hall somewhere. And I was in the quiet carriage in order to write this very script, in fact. And there was a child sitting in the quiet carriage who was watching television very loudly on its mother's computer and having a conversation on the phone with its grandmother and various things. I was actually quite shocked at how capable of violence I felt.
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C
Oh my God, Georgina, was this last night?
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It was, it was. So I'm bringing this up here because in China they're indulging this sort of stuff.
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C
Well, yeah, well, let's say, yeah, Bloomberg is looking at a really interesting retail angle trend coming out of China, which is shopping malls. There as, as in many countries really, they've been struggling with online competition and weaker post pandemic spending and many are now seeing a revival thanks to Generation Alpha kids born from 2010 to 2024. They're kind of helping breathe new life into these struggling shopping malls. In Shanghai, the Super Brand mall was facing empty storefronts just a few years ago. But after adding a major kids third home zone with playgrounds and theaters and activities, things like that, it's now packed on the weekends and posting double digits holiday sales growth. Now other malls are also doing things, adding things from indoor snow tubing to mini zoos. And it's a strategy that's quite simple and brilliant in it, which is attract kids and then the parents will follow and hopefully they will, of course, buy everything. So child related spending in China now tops around $800 billion a year. And many families plan outings and indeed shopping entirely around their children's preferences. So in the battle between, I guess E commerce and bricks and mortar, it turns out genalpha might actually be the secret weapon for retail.
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Well, except if you're me. Right. Because I'm going to avoid that, obviously.
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C
Or you could just get me with the dragon fruit waving your hands.
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A
Absolutely overpriced dragon fruit and a lot of children. What joy. What joy. Laura, thank you very much indeed. That's Laura Kramer, Monocle's senior producer, joining us from our Paris studio. You're with the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Peru's Congress has impeached interim President Jose Harry after he failed to disclose meetings with Chinese businessman Zhua Yang. His removal makes him the country's third consecutive leader to be ousted and leaves Peru preparing to appoint its seventh president since 2016. The Vatican has declined to take part in Donald Trump's Board of Peace, arguing that crisis management should remain the responsibility of the United Nations. The Holy See also pointed to concerns about the board's structure and its role in overseeing Gaza without Palestinian representation. And Philippine Vice President Sarah Duterte has announced she will stand in the 202028 presidential race and is already polling strongly. The Constitution bars President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. From seeking a second term, setting up an open contest. This is THE Globalist. Stay tuned. It is 1300 in Bangalore and that is 7:30 here in London. Narendra Modi is proving extremely popular. Recently, international leaders are beating a path to him in India to boost strategic partnerships and make business deals. The latest to do so is Emmanuel Macron of France, on his fourth visit to the country since he was elected in 2017. Well, I'm joined now by Maya Sharma, who's a journalist based in Bangalore. Maya, hello. It's lovely to have you back on the show. This visit comes as the world is acknowledging the changing international order. In fact, Macron referenced this exact phrase. Tell us more.
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F
Absolutely. Georgina, Should I say bonjour first? Yes. President Macron here on his fourth visit to the country since he took over in 2017. And Prime Minister Modi would be extremely happy to hear you talk about his increasing popularity, especially since the rather unpleasant times had with Donald Trump in the recent past. Which brings us to the fact that there has been definitely a change in the world order. Europe has been talked to very toughly by President Trump. India has kind of agreed to the broad framework of a trade deal with the United States, which hasn't made everybody in India very happy. And in that context, well, Europe and India are looking at each other with much more love than in the recent past. We've had the recent trade deal, the free trade agreement signed. We had guests from the EU as chief guests in the Republic Day parade last year, last month in India. And now of course, we have President Macron here in India to talk about a whole range of subjects.
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A
What's the focus of his three day visit?
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F
Well, he is here for three days, as you said. And basically we would say it's defence, it's trade, it's technology in defence. When it comes to defence, they're looking at hoping to seal a deal with India of 114 Rafale jets. That would be for the Indian Air Force and Navy, which would of course be a huge purchase. France is already the second highest defence supplier to India. They're also looking at aeronautics. And right here in Bangalore a new setup was actually created. New line for Airbus H125 helicopters, which they claim can actually fly as high as the Himalayas, as high as Everest. So that is also their aeronautics is very much on the deal as well. But also AI in hell, space technology and R and D education, clean energy, there's a whole range with probably defense, trade and technology being right on top.
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A
I'm just interested in this inauguration of this helicopter assembly line in Bangalore. How's that going to change your home city? Are we talking about a lot of job creation? Will there be any sort of substantial changes?
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F
Well, Bangalore has always been a kind of headquarters for much of the aerospace industry in India. We have, it's the headquarters of isro, which is the Indian Space Research Organization. So there has been a lot of aero industry, space industry work in Bangalore. Definitely has the technology for that and the human power for that. It has lots of educational institutes. So it's already catered to this. So it's probably as a result of the existing infrastructure in Bengaluru that the Airbus has decided to kind of expand here as well. So, so there is the source of technology, there is a source of people working here as well.
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A
What is the France India year of innovation that they're Launching.
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F
Well, yes, that has also been talked about a lot. Innovation. It's one of the many steps in which India and France is trying to upgrade its relationship. And formally the relationship has become a special global strategic partnership. And this India, France Year of Innovation Forum, which the both leaders addressed yesterday, is one of these, looking at greater ways in which, as they put it, French expertise and Indian scale can come together to, in different areas to actually kind of increase trade, increase cooperation. France has also talked about technology transfer, not just sale of fur products, but also technology transfer to India, which is something India wants very much, considering one of Prime Minister Modi's pet schemes is make in India. So. So there is a lot of cooperation going on between these two countries in the backdrop, of course, of that EU Free Trade Agreement that was signed not too long ago.
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A
I mean, so far, so cosy. But where do France and India diverge?
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F
Well, of course, there is a need to protect India's agricultural system when it comes to the Free Trade Agreement itself. But by and large, I would say it is cozy. It is quite a cosy agreement. I mean, I mean, like, even the whole visit of President Macron has had a lot of soft, soft outreach, whether he was posting from his airplane, you know, on the way to India to visit my friend, Prime Minister Modi, whether he went jogging in Mumbai yesterday. He went jogging along the streets of Mumbai with just a couple of security guards, which is not necessarily something you see on the streets of Indian cities. And also he met a whole lot of film actors, film stars yesterday, whom he described as legends of Indian cinema. So this is a lot of soft outreach as well. Modi and Macron have been totally in praise of each other. So I would think it has actually been a fairly warm relationship starting back in the 90s, actually.
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A
I mean, could Ukraine be a potential area of dispute given that Modi hasn't condemned the invasion by Russia and he is still buying Russian oil?
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F
Well, yes, of course, Europe would like to see more people actually speak outright, condemn Russia, Putin and its actions in Ukraine, which India, as you said, has steered clear of outright condemnation, although Prime Minister Modi has said it's not an era for war. But India, on the, shall we say, friendly pressure from the United States, has been scaling back its purchase of Russian oil. It has diverted some of its purchases to Venezuela as also instructed by the United States. Not something which has been very well received in the country, I must say. But by and large, I think Ukraine is no longer a central point of discussion, as it was perhaps a year or two ago, for better or for worse. I think there are other things which have kind of taken over. I think, especially President Trump's actions. I think that has been more of a kind of let's reach out to each other since we can't rely on the United States anymore. I think that vibe is kind of bigger than discussions on Ukraine at this point.
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A
And, Maya, finally, why has the international attention on India increased so much recently? Is India seen as a key player? Are people watching to see which way it goes?
- [37:14]
F
Well, Prime Minister Modi definitely has an eye on the outside world and its perception of him and his country. He's traveled across the globe trying to garner greater Indian attention, but also, I think, again, with the uncertainty over the United States, India is such a huge market. It's a huge domestic market for Indian producers, but it's also a massive market for the eu, for other countries as well. So there's very a lot of interest in having access to India's market, especially with the change in the world order. And as Macron himself said, the common roadmap to address global challenges and Modi's reference to a multipolar world, I think there is a greater interest in actually eyeing India for its huge market.
- [37:56]
A
Maya, thank you very much indeed. That's Maya Sharma, a journalist based in Bangalore. You're with Monocle Radio. Well, I'm joined now by Monocle's man in the Balkans, that's Guy Delaunay, to round up the top stories from his region. Good morning to you, Guy.
- [38:20]
I
Good morning, Georgina. And good morning, all.
- [38:22]
A
Is it as miserable there as it is here in terms of the weather? That is?
- [38:26]
H
You know what?
- [38:27]
I
It's finally gorgeous and sunny and cold.
- [38:30]
A
Georgina.
- [38:31]
I
It's a great relief because it has been as wet here as it has been everywhere else in Europe, including the United Kingdom. We have been quite miserable here. February is always the toughest month and the weather hasn't been helping. But now we have sunshine, and I am going to rub your nose in it now.
- [38:49]
A
It's the final day of the war crimes trial of Kosovo's former president. Tell us more.
- [38:55]
I
That's right. So the former president in question is Hashim Thatchi, and he's on trial in the Hague in a court called the Kosovo Specialist Chambers, which is a curious beast. It's a court of Kosovo, but it's staffed by international judicial officials. And he's charged there with crimes against humanity in relation to his role as a senior commander of the Kosovo Liberation army in the late 1990s. And the specific charges against him are that he was responsible for the illegal detention, torture and murder, murder of scores of civilians during that conflict in the late 1990s.
- [39:33]
A
And are we going to see any kind of verdict today?
- [39:37]
I
We are not going to see any kind of verdict. What we may see, though, is Mr. Thatchy and his three fellow defendants addressing the court directly, because we've heard over the past week or so from defence lawyers, prosecutors and also victims counsel as well. But this is the absolute final summing of up of the case today and the accused do get the chance to make their own personal statements before the court. So that's going to be well worth watching out for.
- [40:05]
A
Now, let's have a look at what's going on in Sarajevo. Big protests. What's this all about?
- [40:11]
I
That's right. So there've been protests over the past few days. And you remember, of course, we've spoken about this a lot, Georgina, over the past year or so, the railway station disaster in Novi Sad In Serbia in November 2020, that sparked off a protest movement in Serbia that's still going on, with huge protests on a number of occasions and daily protests in the cities across Serbia. Well, we've been seeing something on a smaller scale in Bosnia's capital, Sarajevo, on the past week following another accident involving public transport. In this case, it was a tram crash in the center of Sarajevo. A tram that was a big. About 50 years old, derailed in the center of the city. Some people who were waiting at a bus stop were hit by that tram at a tram stop.
- [40:59]
E
Rather.
- [41:00]
I
One of them was killed, another one very seriously injured. This has brought people out on the streets saying, look, in our city, the infrastructure is crumbling, these trams are ancient, the tracks are not in good states of repair, and now they're proving deadly to the citizens. And that's become a strong feeling that's pervading in Sarajevo at the moment. And we're going to have more process protests today.
- [41:22]
A
Guy, I want to talk about Albania's AI Minister. That was a minister who was a chatbot, wasn't it?
- [41:30]
I
Pretty much, yes. So it's a bit of a stunt. This, Georgina, this. This was Diella, and still is Diella, who was introduced by Edi Rama, the Prime Minister of Albania, who is, let's admit at this, very, very good indeed at publicity. And he introduced her as the answer to corruption in his. His presentation of Diello is, look, we've put her in charge of procurement in Albania. Everything will go through her. And she's incorruptible because she's an AI, okay, AI are incorruptible. Of course, it's nothing to do with how they're programmed or what people are putting into them. This was the whole stunt. But now there's an actress in Albania who's saying that she's been ripped off.
- [42:18]
C
Off.
- [42:19]
I
And she's been ripped off by Diella because Diella has ripped off her voice and her image. Because Diella, as you said, was presented as this chatbot. She even made an appearance in, in parliament, said, saying she was very upset about the, the criticism she'd received for not actually being a human being. And how could an artificial intelligence or chatbot hold, hold a ministerial office? Well, now it turns out that she may lose her voice and her image. That she's made this formal request through a court in Albania demanding the government immediately stop using her voice and image.
- [42:51]
A
For Diella, I'm not surprised. Wouldn't that annoy you?
- [42:55]
I
Well, absolutely. And this is the whole thing in our industry, Georgina, whether that's media or what you do more widely in the world of books, people who are in creative industries are rather annoyed at AIs hoovering up all their creations, all their creativity, all their imagination, all their skills and churning out, you know, doing this so called training for these generative AIs. Well, this is even more serious, I would have thought, if you can't trust a government to keep their hands off your, not just your intellectual property, but your actual being. It's a rather worrying sign.
- [43:28]
A
Absolutely. Well, so far no artificial intelligence has excelled on the sporting field and I expect it to stay that way for a while. Let's talk about Slovenian ski jumpers because you have been banging on about them for months.
- [43:43]
I
I have been banging on about them and I thought it was only fair now that they have completed their competitions, that we check in with the Slovenian ski jumpers, in particular the super Soar Away Slovenian siblings Domen and Nika Preutz to check in how they did in the ski jumping events. Would you like to hear the score, Georgina?
- [44:05]
A
I'm not going to be able to stop you giving it to me.
- [44:08]
I
You're not. You're quite right. So Domin PR won two gold medals and his sister Nika won a gold, a silver and a bronze. She got the whole set. In the women's events and, and the mixed event, Domin got two golds for the, the mixed team, so actually won one medal with his sister in, in the same team. And that's the first time in Olympic history that a brother and sister have ever won medals. At the, in the same event in the Winter Olympics and ski jumping, there was actually a brother and sister who won gold in the curling, but they weren't Slovene, so we won't talk about them.
- [44:40]
A
That is some sibling rivalry, right?
- [44:43]
I
It is, it is. And it's there. It's, it's, it's been real this season. I think Domin might be feeling he's got one over on his sister because he's got two golds. Whereas Nika has been the World cup champion for the past two seasons and also also the reigning double world champion and world record holder. So, you know, family bragging rights very much at stake.
- [45:02]
A
Absolutely. Guy, thank you very much indeed. That's Guy Delaunay, Monocle's Balkans correspondent. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft. It is 60, 1845 in Tokyo, 8:45 in Zurich. In the midst of the current Lunar New Year overseas travel season for China, there's been a noticeable decline in the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan. Japan's Transport Ministry reported Chinese tourism almost halved in December compared with the same period in 2025. Also, Japan fell out of the top 10 most popular travel destinations nations. Well, this follows strong backlash from China and the issuance of travel advisories after comments by Japanese government officials regarding the situation surrounding Taiwan. I'm joined now by Jeffrey Kingston, who's a professor of history and Asian Studies at Temple University in Japan. Jeffrey, many thanks for coming on the show. How unusual is it for Japan to fall out of the top 10 destinations for lunar New Year travel?
- [46:45]
J
Well, I don't think there's a lot of Japanese who are lamenting the decline of Chinese tourists outside the hospitality sector. So the huge surge in Chinese tourism over the past five years has not been entirely welcomed. And this is explained. I mean, public opinion polls show that the Japanese regard for the Chinese is at an all time low. And that is fully reciprocated on the Chinese side. So I think that for Japanese citizens, it's a blessing in disguise. I mean, friends of mine in Kyoto are saying, hey, I can get a seat on the bus. The temples are not all crowded. I can get reservations at good restaurants. The ski slopes are mercifully not as Crowded as they were. So I think there's a bit of an upside here.
- [47:41]
A
And are these just Chinese tourists that are falling off or are we seeing a decline across tourists from everywhere?
- [47:47]
J
Oh no, I mean there's still a surge of tourism. There's been a big bump in tourists from Southeast Asia. I think that the, the drop in Chinese tourism in December was offset by, by double the numbers of increase of Southeast Asian tourists. So that's a new market for Japan. And last week I was up in an onsen in remote Guma mountains and was surprised. First time the onsen was packed with Indian tourists and so another big new market. So I don't think that Japan has to worry that the numbers of tourists flocking to Japan is going to decline anytime soon. I think it's still on many people's bucket list. But yeah, the Chinese sort of wore out their welcome. And so I think that it's not exactly a champagne corks popping event, but I think the not too many people are letting out a boo hoo about it either.
- [48:47]
A
Why did China issue travel warnings against Japan?
- [48:52]
J
Well, the government is upset with Prime Minister Takaichi's responsibility remarks in the Diet about a possible Japanese military response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or otherwise trying to alter the status quo by force. So she made explicit what had long been implicit. But for, you know, Beijing, she crossed a red line and they have, have, you know, brushed off their wolf warrior diplomacy. The Osaka Consulate General called for her head and she's been relentlessly vilified and called on to retract her remarks. She hasn't done that.
- [49:42]
A
If these tensions over Taiwan continue and it looks as though they might, will this in your opinion, lead to a long term shift in Chinese travel patterns?
- [49:53]
J
Well, you know, from my observations, not all Chinese got the memo. This travel advisory applies to group tours, but private tour, private tourists are still flocking to Japan and I notice many of them up in northern Tohoku. And in China they have restricted importance of Japanese seafood because it's unsafe. But in walking by the Izakaya in this port town in Tohoku, I noticed that the Chinese were shoveling down the seafood and didn't seem too concerned about the safety. So I think that it will decline. But I think that still Chinese like to come to Japan and there are many charms here that attract them.
- [50:40]
A
Why is the seafood considered unsafe, safe?
- [50:43]
J
Well, that's related to 15 years ago almost. The Fukushima nuclear reactors went into meltdown and there was a release of radioactivity into the ocean and into the heavens. And so part of the diplomatic tiff between the nations has been reflected in restrictions on imports of seafood from Japan. And so that, you know, really hit fishermen quite hard because China is such a huge market. But, you know, when I see Chinese, you know, visiting Tokyo, other places, they don't seem so concerned. I think they realize this is a political issue and doesn't really bear any resemblance to reality. And some Chinese confided to me, well, you know, people talk about food safety in Japan. Well, they ought to be thinking about more about it in China.
- [51:37]
A
And finally, Jeffrey, do you think that tourism could become a political tool in East Asia?
- [51:43]
J
Well, it already is. And pandas have been politicized. Right. The last panda left Japan at China's behest. So the pandas are being used, the tourists are being used. China is trying to leverage Japan to back down. I think Takiichi did, did what she could. She backed, you know, so she walked back her comments. But, you know, she has enjoyed incredible political dividends for standing up to the regional bully. So actually it's helped boost her popularity. She, you know, has walked the walk of being the, the Iron lady of Asia. She is sort of, you know, describes herself as a Maggie Thatcher fan.
- [52:25]
A
Absolutely. Jeffrey, thank you very much indeed. That's Geoffrey Kingston there. And you're listening to the Global on Monocle Radio. It's 8:52 in Milan, that's 7:52 here in London. And that is where we're heading to Milan, where our team is covering the Winter Olympic Games. And I'm joined now from the Allianz Winter Sky Lounge by Monocle's contributing editor, Andrew Muller. Good morning to you, Andrew.
- [52:59]
H
Andrew, Good morning, Georgina.
- [53:01]
A
Can you tell us what you see from the Allianz Winter Sky Lounge, almost all of Milan.
- [53:08]
H
This is the top of the tallest building in the entire city. On the side we're sitting on, if I'm standing on, rather if I turn around, I can actually see a lot of sporting venues, probably most notably the legendary San Siro football stadium, which we will be going to later tonight for a non Olympic sporting event, specifically AC Milan at home, Tacomo in Serie A. But it seemed a shame not to do that while we're here, not least as there are not going to be many more chances to see football at the San Siro, which is. Which is not long for this world.
- [53:41]
A
It's going to be removed, destroyed, something of that sort.
- [53:46]
H
Yes, there's going to be a new stadium, which does seem like kind of a shame. I'm not an expert in the, the maintenance of antique football stadiums, but yeah, it has been decided that it's going.
- [53:55]
A
To go right now. Andrew, I understand you've been having a really kind of authentic Olympic experience. Tell me what you've been up to.
- [54:03]
H
Well, we had an authentic Olympic experience last night in that we actually went to go to the Olympics as at least an Olympic event, as we discovered when we did two weeks in Paris during the Summer Games the year before last. One of the disadvantages with doing shows like this from the Olympic city is that you don't actually get that much of a chance to see much of the Olympics. And it's more of a challenge here because most of the Games are happening not in Milan, but in Cortina, which is about six hours away by train. However, some of the ice rink related stuff is happening in Milan and we did go last night to the hockey to see Denmark versus the Czech Republic.
- [54:41]
A
And what, what happens?
- [54:44]
H
Well, the Danes lost, unfortunately we decided to adopt them for a variety of random reasons and they, they made a game of it but lost at 3, 2. So they are, they are packing their, their hockey sticks and pads and going home while the Czechs advance to a, a quarterfinal with Canada. But it was, it was interesting to see because the, the hockey rink is one of the, one of the venues that was actually built for these games and it was a slightly controversial one in that there was a lot of chat as to whether it would actually be finished in time. And you can kind of see as you make your way up to the nosebleed seats where we were sitting, that not quite all of the finishing has been complete. It does still need a lick of paint in the stairwells and so forth. But by and large a beautiful venue functioned as advertised and the atmosphere was actually pretty cool. The checks I think, think were the Czechs definitely had the numbers in the audience and they were making increasing amount of noises as victory neared.
- [55:45]
A
I'm interested in why you, and I understand you went with producer Steph Chungu, why you decided to support Denmark over Czech Republic.
- [55:55]
H
It was literally a tie in with Monocle Radio's recent expedition to Greenland. It just seemed of the two countries, it was the one that one of us had been to most recently. So we decided to go all in on Denmark, but very quickly realised that we were the underdogs both on and off the rink. If it had got a bit tasty outside the stadium afterwards, we would have been in trouble.
- [56:16]
A
Well, it's like the same doesn't apply to Greenland, right So there were a lot of Latvian fans too.
- [56:24]
H
There were. We encountered the Latvian hockey ultras who are apparently a thing coming towards the stadium as we were leaving. Leaving because they were up next. They were terrifically enthusiastic with the whole huge flags and faces painted in the colors of their national flag, a really quite alarming emblem of a kind of, I think I'm right in saying it was a skull also painted in the colors of the Latvian flag and no shade at all on Latvian hockey fans. But I, I think we were both kind of of relieved that we would not be sitting among them because one of them had bought a very large bass drum which he was already thwacking enthusiastically. I would be interested in understanding or appreciating how long that enthusiasm kept up once the game got started because I noticed looking at the result just now, they got thoroughly spanked by Sweden 5 1. So condolences to all of our Latvian listeners.
- [57:24]
A
Andrew Monocle in Milan is coming up at at 10 London time this morning. What have you got lined up for us?
- [57:31]
H
We have a heavily design oriented program today and obviously that's hard to avoid when you come to Milan of all places and talk to the people who make it happen. Because when it's not hosting Olympic Games, that's pretty much what Milan is known for. So we are talking to people from the fields of industrial design, from architecture, from furniture design. But we also do have Angeli Tateo from the Elite foundation for Culture and Heritage and she'll be talking to us a bit about the cultural legacy that any Games hopes to leave. She also curates the Olympic Museum in Lausanne. So I'll be interested in asking her what artefacts from these Games might end up in a glass case back where she works. And we also are talking to possibly one of Earth's most niche publishing houses. This is Aipa Borea, who have made a living for quite while a long time now doing specifically Italian translations of specifically Nordic literature. So congratulations to someone for spotting that gap in the market.
- [58:31]
A
Absolutely. And Andrew, are you going to be watching any more sport today?
- [58:36]
H
Well, apart from the football later tonight, I'm going to be reliant on whatever pops up on the big screens in this spectacular spot in which we're working. So I will try to keep an eye on it.
- [58:46]
A
Andrew Muller, Monocle's contributing editor in Milan. Thank you very much for joining us us. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Anita Riota, Chris Chermack and Monica Lillis, our researcher Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager Christy o' Grady, after the headlines. There's more music on the way. And as I said, Monocle in Milan is coming up at 9am London time, 10am Milan time. The briefing is live at midday in London and the Globalist returns at the same time time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, strategies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.