Podcast Summary: The Globalist – "Geneva’s role in Ukraine and Iran peace talks"
Date: February 18, 2026
Host: Georgina Godwin (Monocle)
Notable Guests:
- Charles Hecker (Political Risk and Russia Analyst)
- Gurana Gurgic (Monocle Security Correspondent)
- Tara Kangarlou (Journalist & Author)
- Bill Browder (CEO, Hermitage Capital Management)
- Laura Kramer (Monocle Senior Producer)
- Maya Sharma (Journalist, Bangalore)
- Guy Delaunay (Monocle Balkans Correspondent)
- Jeffrey Kingston (Professor, Temple University Japan)
- Andrew Muller (Monocle Contributing Editor, Milan)
Episode Overview
This episode centers on Geneva’s revived role as a focal point for high-stakes diplomacy, with concurrent talks between Ukraine and Russia, and the US and Iran. It explores the underlying tensions and strategic calculations of the respective parties, the effectiveness of sanctions, shifting global alliances, and the wider impact on international affairs. Alongside, the episode delivers incisive European news coverage, economic analysis, and regional dispatches from around the globe.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Geneva’s Double Diplomatic Track: Ukraine-Russia & US-Iran
[04:08–14:22]
Ukraine-Russia Talks: Low Hopes and Lopsided Pressures
- Talks continue in Geneva, reflecting “US diplomacy without diplomats” – indirect, low-expectation negotiations after limited progress in previous rounds (Abu Dhabi: only prisoner swaps).
- Russia insists on territorial demands and Ukraine’s official renunciation of NATO aspirations.
- Recent comments by President Zelensky to Axios highlight friction:
“It’s not fair that President Trump is repeatedly calling on Ukraine rather than Russia to make concessions for peace.”
(Gurana Gurgic, 04:53) - Ongoing intense Russian military escalation in Ukraine undermines negotiation credibility:
“Every month there is a report of yet another biggest attack so far on either energy infrastructure or some of the key cities, including, of course, the capital, Kyiv.”
(Guraana Gurgic, 06:13) - US/Western patience appears thin, risking eventual withdrawal (“a pox on all your houses”) if talks keep stalling.
US-Iran Talks: No Progress, Only Posturing
- The only agreement: to keep talking.
“They’re talking to talk and, and I believe they' another round scheduled for the next two weeks. But of course anything can happen.”
(Tara Kangarlou, 09:56) - Historical context: Negotiations easily upended by military action (e.g., Night Hammer operation after failed diplomacy in June).
- Both sides are increasing military presence—US carrier off Iran’s coast, Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz for drills.
“Iran is surrounded by the possibility of an all in war. But...I don’t think the president is in a position to carry such conflict just months before the midterm elections...”
(Tara Kangarlou, 11:20) - US focus is on curbing Iran’s nuclear enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief; attention to human rights/protestors has slipped.
Washington's Overstretched Diplomacy
- Despite Trump-era “America First” rhetoric, the US remains overcommitted globally (Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela, China, etc.).
- Diplomatic corps heavily reliant on Trump loyalists Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, reflecting both personal trust and diminished State Department resources.
“These two guys are carrying the burden of a fairly pared back diplomatic capacity. Not quite single-handedly, double-handedly.”
(Charles Hecker, 09:15) - Risks include regional escalation and potential for military confrontation.
Russia Sanctions: The Oil Loophole and Economic Resilience
[15:30–21:23]
Bill Browder’s Analysis
- Sanctions have wounded Russia, but oil sales (via shadow fleets to China, India, Turkey) provide a crucial financial lifeline.
"The Russian economy is not doing well. They're definitely suffering, but this oil money is keeping them afloat, and that's what’s allowing Putin to fund his war."
(Bill Browder, 15:57) - Browder’s solution: Target the eight main refineries processing Russian oil; threaten business access in the West if they keep buying Russian oil.
- On Western caution:
“Too little, too late on everything...It all comes down to oil. If you stop him from selling his oil...I think in six months he'll run out of money to continue to execute this war.”
(Bill Browder, 17:28) - On fears of Putin’s collapse:
“If that is the argument, that's a pretty dumb argument to say we don’t want to put his back to the wall. We need to put this guy’s back to the wall.”
(Bill Browder, 18:36) - Skeptical of peace talks: Russia seeks total victory, feigns negotiations to delay sanctions, and hopes Western political resolve fractures.
“Putin is just playing Trump along so that he can carry on with his grinding war of attrition...He’s hoping...Europe will be fractured...”
(Bill Browder, 20:43)
European News Review (Paris Studio)
[22:57–29:08]
France: Far-Right Activist Murder & Escalating Political Tensions
- Nine arrests following fatal beating of an activist in Lyon; intensifying pre-election polarization between France’s far right and hard left.
- Case highlighted due to involvement of a left-wing party parliamentary assistant among suspects.
Romania & Bulgaria: RFE/RL Closures Undermine Press Freedom
- Radio Free Europe’s Romania and Bulgaria services set to close due to US funding cuts, raising alarms about transparency and Russian disinformation.
China: Shopping Malls Revitalized by Generation Alpha
- Chinese malls repurpose toward children’s entertainment to counter e-commerce; shifts family spending and encourages mall revival.
France-India Strategic Ties
[31:16–37:55]
- President Macron’s visit marks intensified Europe-India relations amid uncertainty with US policy.
- Focus on defense (Rafale jet deal), aeronautics, AI, innovation, trade partnerships.
“French expertise and Indian scale can come together to...increase trade, increase cooperation.”
(Maya Sharma, 34:08) - Some differences (agriculture in trade deals), but overall “cozy” relations, underpinned by soft diplomacy and joint initiatives.
- Ukraine’s relevance diminished in direct talks, with India cool toward condemnation and shifting oil purchases under US influence.
Regional Dispatches: Balkans, Japan, and Milan
Balkans Roundup
[38:20–45:01]
- Kosovo's former president Hashim Thaçi at war crimes trial in The Hague; final summing up but no verdict.
- Protests in Sarajevo over deadly outdated tram infrastructure.
- Albania’s AI Minister ‘Diella’ embroiled in identity theft row—actress accuses chatbot of using her likeness without consent, raising wider creative/IP issues.
Japan: Chinese Tourism Plunge
[46:44–52:24]
- Chinese tourist numbers to Japan drop sharply after government backlash over Taiwan remarks and seafood safety disputes (post-Fukushima).
"The Chinese sort of wore out their welcome...it's not exactly a champagne corks popping event, but...not too many people are letting out a boo hoo about it either."
(Jeffrey Kingston, 47:41) - Rise in Southeast Asian, Indian tourists offsets decline. Tourism and pandas as diplomatic levers in Sino-Japanese relations.
Milan: Winter Olympics Coverage
[52:59–58:46]
- Andrew Muller reports from Milan: New venues, logistical hiccups, colorful Olympic fandom.
- Slovenian siblings shine in ski jumping, historical medal wins for both.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
“[Russia] has one major opportunity that we still need to close off...the sale of oil. If you stop him from selling his oil...in six months he'll run out of money to continue to execute this war."
- Bill Browder, 17:28
-
“These talks...are basically succeeding to earlier meetings...that had very little concrete outcomes other than prisoner swaps. Expectations going into this round have been relatively low.”
- Guraana Gurgic, 04:09
-
“These two guys [Kushner and Witkoff] are carrying the burden of a fairly pared back diplomatic capacity...not quite single-handedly, double-handedly.”
- Charles Hecker, 09:15
-
“The Chinese sort of wore out their welcome...friends of mine in Kyoto are saying, hey, I can get a seat on the bus. The temples are not all crowded. I can get reservations at good restaurants...”
- Jeffrey Kingston, 47:41
-
“French expertise and Indian scale can come together...not just sale of products, but also technology transfer to India, which is something India wants very much...”
- Maya Sharma, 34:08
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Geneva diplomatic updates: 04:08–14:22
- Sanctions & Russian oil economy: 15:30–21:23
- European paper review: 22:57–29:08
- France-India relations: 31:16–37:55
- Balkans regional news: 38:20–45:01
- Japan and Chinese tourism: 46:44–52:24
- Winter Olympics (Milan): 52:59–58:46
Tone and Style
Insightful, objective, and direct—typical of Monocle’s editorial voice. Analyses are matter-of-fact but occasionally wry or candid (e.g., Bill Browder’s bluntness on Western caution; Laura Kramer’s dragon fruit anecdote). The program balances hard geopolitical analysis with lighter human interest and wit.
Summary
This edition of The Globalist provides a detailed snapshot of a multipolar world in flux: stalemated negotiations in Geneva, evolving sanction regimes, shifting trade partnerships, and the unpredictable ripples of international news, culture, and economics. The episode is essential listening for anyone seeking an on-the-ground sense of how global diplomacy, regional dynamics, and shifting alliances are playing out in 2026.