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You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 17th November 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, has Germany become too vulnerable to China? After years of close economic ties, Berlin is getting cold feet and looking for a way out. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes.
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The more I've received feedback from readers and viewers and the like that it's almost paternalistic and they say stop trying to protect me. And by the way, they say you're not trying to protect me, you're really protecting the man.
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The financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin gives us his predictions and view on the next financial bubble. Pope Leo welcomes Hollywood to the Vatican.
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And it's all about how to tell a story and how best to connect with your audience in doing so.
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The artist Sheza Dawoud on using art to profile the environment. Plus Monday's papers too. That's all coming up on the Globalist live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. President Trump has instructed House Republicans to vote for the full release of government files related to the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, saying we have nothing to hide. The veteran right wing politician Jose Antonio cast is on track to win Chile's presidency. And a planned auction in Germany of artifacts from prisoners of Nazi concentration camps has been cancelled. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio for more on these stories throughout the day. But first, Germany is rethinking its relationship with China. Having enjoyed the benefits of selling goods to China for years, Berlin has become wary of just how dependent it has become. For example, Germany imports about 80% of its supply of rare earth minerals from China. So when a restriction was placed on their export by Beijing, Germany realize just how vulnerable it is. Well, I'm joined now from Berlin by Aaron Burnett, who's senior fellow at the Democratic Strategy Initiative in Berlin. A very good morning to you, Aaron.
D
Good morning.
A
So how vulnerable is Germany?
D
Tremendously vulnerable, actually. We saw an interview a couple of weeks ago from the head of Germany's Raw Material Agency saying that the dependence of Germany on rare earths is so total, or on China is so total rather that German, Germany's own rearmament is very much at risk if a solution to the rare earths issue is not found. These rare earths that we're talking about that China exports to Germany or has exported to Germany for a long time are very necessary for certain processes in defense manufacturing. So as we see Germany attempt to rearm and spend more money on defense to deal with the Russian threat, its dependence on China only increases. This is a major warning that we saw a few weeks ago, as well as advice that it was going to take quite some time, years in fact, to fix. So it is a tremendously massive problem. But we're also seeing the Chinese essentially extort German firms and say, if you want these critical minerals and these rare earths, you have to give us your intellectual property and trade secrets. So China is no longer engaging in espionage or corporate espionage that it makes some show of hiding. It is doing it right in the open, using Germany's own dependence against it. So the situation is quite serious.
A
Can you dive a little bit deeper and what kind of companies are finding themselves at the receiving end of these, these requests?
D
Certainly anything that is connected to sometimes even, you know, you name it really. There's auto manufacturing, there's certainly sometimes even pharmaceutical that sometimes get into this issue. There's also, again, as we're also saying, sometimes even critical firms like, like defense firms, for example. So it is a rather, you know, it's definitely a very, very key strategic vulnerability that Germany is experiencing when we're looking at Chinese dependence right now, especially when it comes to rare earths and also other critical minerals. Certainly any company that is engaged in the energy transition, you know, has this vul as well because of the amount of critical minerals that China has that are necessary for this particular transition and for these new technologies.
A
Now we're talking about this now because the government is actually looking at another is revisiting a de risking strategy, isn't it? So something was drawn up a couple of years ago, yet nothing binding. There were no targets in it. So what is changing now?
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The short answer really is sort of legislative framework. I mean, last week we saw Germany pass a law that allows for certain technologies deemed to be risky in key German sectors to be banned. There have been, in 2021, we saw a similar law applied specifically to telecoms where the German government would be given the power by parliament to keep certain components out. You of Germany's critical telecoms infrastructure. I mean, Huawei is the big reason why that one was enacted. The new legislation passed last week basically now takes that and applies it to the entire economy. So the German government does have the ability now to really keep out Chinese components out of a whole host of critical industries and infrastructure. The key here is though, is the willingness to use it. Are we necessarily going to see the political will by the German government, either this one or future ones, to actually use those powers that parliament is currently giving it? That really is the big question. You can have a strategy, but if it just is a nice document that sits on paper and you don't intend to follow through, then what is the point really? That's the question for Germany.
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Now, Aaron, you seem to have some quite noisy neighbour there, but we will persevere with clearly the fact that you're in a busy city where this happens all the time. Explain to us now, therefore, how much Germany feels itself pulled to decouple because obviously we've laid out the problems that it faces in terms of withdrawing its alliances with China. But is it feeling as if the European Union and indeed Donald Trump, the United States is now making extra demands on it?
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I would certainly say that's the case. It may also explain one of the. It may also explain why we have seen really an about face from this particular German government on China. This is a government or a party that campaigned certainly on being much more hawkish on Russia. But there was ahead of the election questions about, well, I mean, are we continuing with the same China policy that we've seen in years past that has put us at increasing risk? Are we repeating the same mistake with Chinese critical minerals as we did with Russian gas? That was the key question. We now seem to see a government that is willing to engage with China a little bit more carefully and a little bit more hawkishly. Donald Trump, I think, has a lot to do with that, certainly. But again, I think the key question is how much of this new sort of tough talk will be implemented. And as the finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbal is visiting China now, you know, we can look at his opening statement before the trip. It really was an interesting statement that I think tried to be all things to all people. You know, it said, ticked all of the usual boxes saying we need to work with China on a whole host of global problems, we will seek better and fairer entry for German companies into China. But also, you know, we must engage with it on other tough issues such as Ukraine and, you know, we must prevent new dependencies But I mean, what does all of that really mean? Actually it's a, you know, it's, it's a key question for Germany which has had a China policy which kind of sometimes speaks out of both sides of its mouth.
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Aaron, just, I mean just looking at the way that Germany does, you know, move forward and in the past it has described China as partner, competitor and systemic rival, which is something which, which is a problem that many, many modern countries face today. But if we take the, the most obvious example of what's happening in Germany, which is when Costco, the Chinese shipping firm bought a stake in the Hamburg port terminal a couple of years ago, there were questions raised at the time about the, you know, the, the Chinese influence in German infrastructure. But it was kept at a certain level, wasn't it? So it didn't have that much. And some of the questions now are saying, well, how does Germany regulate its interests without having to buckle or to withdraw or to decouple? How does it actually manage them practically?
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Well, I mean the Cosco example really was an interesting one in the sense that, I mean there is a major stake in that port that China now has. And there were a lot of questions that came up around that time about how Olaf Scholz ever could have allowed it. That goes back also to his time as Hamburg mayor, for example, when we saw a major push from sub national governments in Germany. Germany is a country of 16 federal states attempt to try to attract Chinese investment. So that is a really big part of the challenge that Germany is facing. The federal government can certainly say that it wants to engage in a de risking strategy, but it is also at the mercy of two things. One is sub national governments like Hamburg that actively court Chinese investment and don't seem to quite understand the tremendous risks that are associated with allowing China in to your critical infrastructure. But the second is also German firms who really operate a lot of the time under the assumption that if anything really bad happens with China, such as it invading Taiwan, that the German government will essentially bail it out and compensate it for Chinese losses. The whole problem of, you know, making the risks public but privatizing all of the profits and there's no real change to German incentive structures that actually see this behavior changing. I mean there are some smaller and medium sized enterprises in Germany who have started de risking from China mostly because they know that they won't get bailed out if the worst happens. But when it comes to Germany's largest companies, they see themselves as systemic. And it really, what really matters is whether the government can Essentially effectively threaten them with saying we won't bail you out if there really is a problem. So the challenges really are immense because we are seeing much even increasing investment in China by German firms at a time when the government is saying it wants to de risk.
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Aaron Burnett in Berlin, thank you so much for joining me on the Globalist. China has told its citizens to avoid travel to Japan. And over the weekend a group of ships belonging to the Chinese Coast Guard passed through the waters of the Japan controlled Senkaku Islands. This all follows an escalating dispute between the two countries after the Japanese Prime Minister told her parliament that Japan could intervene militarily were Beijing to attack Taiwan. Well, I'm joined now by Dr. Yu Hua Chen, who's an assistant professor at Akita International University in Japan. A very good afternoon to you.
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Good afternoon.
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So could you explain to us what has happened this weekend to two, two things really. Firstly is this avoidance of Japan. But let's begin with this military show near the Senkaku Islands. Just remind us what happened.
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Okay. So the new Prime Minister of Japan Takaichi, she had a statement on Taiwan contingency in Japanese House of Representative. Basically what she said is if there's any collisions happen in Taiwan which will constitute the so called survival threatening situation in Japanese PE and the security legislation that means Japan could mobilize its self Defense Forces in that situation. And then there was one Chinese diplomat called Xue Jin, right? He said something on his social media account saying he would like to cut the head of a Japanese new Prime Minister. And then what happened after was Chinese government sends to punish the Japanese government by by reminding citizens not to travel to Japan or the risk of starting Japan. And also we did see some PLA start to mobilize along the Yellow Sea of China doing live trios in order to send some messages to the new Japanese leader.
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This message that Prime Minister Takaichi said a couple of weeks ago, clearly it has prompted as you say that that reaction from China. But the fact remains is this is something that she has drawn from the time of Shinzo Abe, hasn't she? That he's her mentor, right?
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Takeshi has been a protege of Shinzo Abe and her color of anti China has been very clear. So I think one important reason Beijing tried to give pressure to Takaichi is because Beijing really want to test the whale of Takaichi. How will she respond to a situation like this and probably try to test whether the United States will stand with Japan in this situation.
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And as a result, I mean the Fact is that we were just looking at the papers this morning. It looks like Japanese stocks related to tourism are falling. And there's been a strong business reaction to this, hasn't there in the last 12, 24 hours?
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Yes, yes, yes. So, but I would say the majority of people in Japan they probably like this happening because for many people in Japan they feel like China's tourism in Japan cause a lot of troubles. And also they would like to see the Japanese Prime Minister is stay tough against Chinese government. Because for many people in Japan there's, there's no, there's zero tolerance against this violent statement on, on social media, especially against Japanese Prime Minister, not to mention long to so many sanctions against Japan. After all, what Takaichi say is just talking about a hypothetical situation when China use force against Taiwan. That is about a policy debate. It's all about democracy. So for many people in Japan the response from Chinese government is irrational.
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It's irrational, but as we described, it's actually having. I'm just watching now we've got shares in Takashimiya, which is the owner of Uniqlo and we got Japan Airlines and ANA also saying drops of 5% in their business. So clearly the reaction from the Chinese may as the Japanese government is saying be irrational, dissuading people from going to Japan. But what could be the real effect of this on the Japanese economy?
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I mean there are a number of ways the Chinese government can punish Japan economy is one, as you mentioned. And there are a number of different ways like doing military exercise or sending maritime, maritime vessels enter into waters around Singapore highlands or even try to doing military military exercises around waters of Japan. So economy, the economic situation with the economic sanction that Chinese government gives Japan is huge. But as I mentioned, many people in Japan they would like to see Japanese government can stay tough this time.
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How is this going to play out? Because we have a new Prime Minister as you've just said, Japanese deciding to play tough as well and the Chinese deciding to play tough as well. But do you have that sense that because Takaichi has barely launched her career as Prime Minister that this may be a long term game or a long term strategy that needs to be planned out. Will this calm down?
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In a sense, yes. Because the Japanese government's response has been very low key and Takaichi say next time she will avoid to talk about hypothetical situation in public. The thing is, the emergence of Taiwan equals emergence of Japan has been a consensus in Japanese for many Japanese politicians for more than a decade. So the difference at this time is Takaichi maybe because of her yo preparation or we don't know whether she did this on purpose. She just talked about what Japan would do. I mean what Japan would do is everyone knows in every Japanese politician recognize this but most prime minister in the past they tend to avoid Toka policy in public in Congress. But Takahashi just talked about this in Congress. So essentially there's no single policy change of Japan's policy toward Taiwan. What difference this time is Takahichi talk about this in public.
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As a result, what kind of damage do you think this might do to Takaichi?
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I would say Takaichi has a very strong support by people in Japan. More than 70% of people in Japan support Takaichi's government nowadays according to many polls. And Kyoto News just did another survey a couple of days ago asking people in Japan that whether they agree that Japan should use force in a Taiwan contingency. And surprisingly about 50% of people in Japan agree with this. This is very amazing because it will never happen. Over the past 20 most people in Japan in the past they avoid to link security of Japan with security of Taiwan. But nowadays most people in Japan agree with this. So that is why many people in Japan and even Americans they say China is really giving a wonderful Christmas gift to Japanese government.
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Yu Hua Chen, assistant professor at Akita International University in Japan. Thank you so much for joining us on the Globalist. Still to come on today's program, Laura Piana's new Bond street flagship is set to be London's must see stop this shopping season. Stay tuned for more from Grace Charlton. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. Let's dive in with the newspapers. Joining me in the studio is Charles Hecker, Russia analyst and author of Zero Sum. Good morning, Chuck.
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Good morning, Emma.
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How's it looking for you today?
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Looking a little bit crispy cold out there this morning it was time to put on the heavy coat and wrap the scarf around tight on the way in.
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Double cardigan day. Right, let's have a look at the papers. As I've just mentioned in the headlines, this amazing turnaround by Donald Trump now urging the release of the Epstein file.
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So this is in every newspaper across the land, really. And we've got a headline in boldface type at the New York Times. It says, trump says House Republicans should vote to release Epstein files. Emma, this is emerging from the very hard knuckle politics of what is happening in Congress and in the White House on the question of the Epstein files. And that is the President's 180. An absolute whiplash inducing 180 on the Epstein files. Saying, go ahead, ahead, let them out, release them is simply a reflection of the fact that President Trump no longer has the votes in Congress. He was pressurizing Republicans all weekend and for days now to prevent the release of these files. But it looks like, first of all, a significant number of House Republicans were going to vote in favor to release the files and there was nothing he could do to stop them. Now you will have increased numbers of Republicans most likely voting to release the files. Trump says, we have nothing to hide. We never have had anything to hide. You know, this is his sort of typical kind of a pox on all your houses, 180 sort of saying, well, if I don't have the votes, I'm gonna pretend I didn't care in the first place.
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Just building on that, the fact that he feels as if what has brought him to the stage that he feels as if he doesn't have the votes to the point where he is agreeing for the release of the Epstein files. Because so much, there has been so much talk about what his role in all this is.
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That's right. And, well, what happened was, I mean, one of the things that brought this to a boil recently was last week's release of a very, very, very small amount of emails. From the trove of Jeffrey Epstein emails in the possession of Congress, the Democrats released three or four emails that very closely tied President Trump to Jeffrey Epstein. Now, it has been public knowledge for a very long time that the two people knew each other, but Trump has always said that once things started to look fishy, he broke off with Jeffrey Epstein and he knew nothing about all of the heinous crimes that Jeffrey Epstein has been accused and indeed convicted of before he died of suicide in prison. Those three emails released by the Democrats raised the temperature quite dramatically. Then what happened was House Republicans released about 20,000 additional emails from the Epstein archives, trying to sort of muddy the waters and make it a little bit more difficult to find or to analyze those three emails in context, explain a.
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Little more just how much the Epstein files has overshadowed America's ability to do business. In the last few weeks, there is that Talk that Donald Trump's diversion tactics were deployed when it comes to Epstein and there was a government shutdown at the same time.
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Among everything else, the broader context and the greater story about all of this, I think are two things. The first is that Donald Trump campaigned and said that he would release the Epstein files when he became president. And his attorney general, Pam Bondi said, you know, the file is on my desk. It's this great big fat dossier and it's all going to be released to the public momentarily. That never happened, number one. Number two, the release or you know, the promised release of the Epstein files was part of the Trump promise to, quote unquote, drain the swamp and to sort of relieve all of the sort of rumor mongering and the inside tittle tattle and the sort of haze of allegations that the Epstein files had hanging over Washington.
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Do we know what's in them?
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Well, we were told at one point that there was a client list inside the Epstein files of people who were close friends of Jeffrey Epstein who were apparently involved in his, you know, absolutely abhorrent trafficking, trafficking and abuse of underage girls and young women. We don't know if there is a client list or not. First we were told there was, then we were told there wasn't. I guess what everyone is looking for is not just a smoking gun in all of this, but a gun that is ablaze and on fire. And because this has now become also almost an issue of popular political culture in the United States, you've gotta lance the boil. And so this has got to come out, pore over it, see what's what. And the Trump administration has got to move past this because otherwise this will be an enduring political albatross for Trump for the rest of his presidency.
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Let's move on to the story in the FT about the U. S Venezuela standoff. I think we've got three people who have been killed in another. There's been another, another strike on a vessel in the East Pacific. In the last 24 hours, all eyes were on whether the United States would mount some sort of military action in or on Venezuela. But there is now the possibility that all this could be solved with a one to one meeting between Donald Trump and Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela.
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Emma, listen to this. Off the coast of Venezuela, we're looking at a story in the ft. By the way, off the coast of Venezuela there are more than 14,000American troops. There are a dozen warships, There is a nuclear powered fast attack submarine, a special operations vessel and F35 fighter jets. You know, this all taken together, is bigger than the Venezuelan army, you know, by some substantial measure, I suspect. And so in this sort of use it or lose it school of, of weaponry and, and military maneuvers, President Trump has really pushed all of the pieces on the chessboard close to Venezuela, and he's got to do something now. What he's telling us he's done is he has forced Maduro into a negotiation stance. Maduro's government, according to the White House, would like to talk, and we'll see where these talks go, because it's clear that I think the ultimate goal in all of this is regime change.
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What is the purpose of Trump wanting particularly to target Maduro as regime change, given the fact that Maduro is not popular anyway? And what. I think he came into power in, what, 2013. And the fact remains that, you know, there have been concerted efforts to try to remove him from power. But at the end of the day, Trump likes a strong man.
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That's right. You know, this is a slightly mysterious situation because. Because in the way that he enacts and drives a lot of his activity these days, President Trump is saying that this is in response to a national emergency, and he is blaming Venezuela for the flow of illegal drugs into the United States, even though most of them come via Mexico. But by saying that this is in response to the influx of fentanyl and other types of narcotics into the United States, that he has these extraordinary powers to exert this military buildup because they're in response to an emergency. You know, I was about to say, who knows what's behind all of this? You know, there are some drugs coming out of Venezuela, but not that many. Venezuela is in the US Sphere of influence because it's in the same hemisphere. It's in Latin America. This is a place where the United States likes to exercise and throw its weight around a little bit. There is an enormous amount of oil in, under and around Venezuela. And, you know, I think that, that, you know, there are just some sort of similarities between what happened in the second invasion of Iraq and the buildup to what looked like it could be an invasion of Venezuela that bear a couple of similarities.
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Charles Hecker, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist live on Monocle Radio video. Now a quick look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. As we've just heard in the newspaper review, President Trump has instructed House Republicans to vote for the full release of government files relating to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. In a major turnaround, Mr. Trump wrote on his truth social platform, we have nothing to hide. The veteran right wing politician Jose Antonio cast is on track to win Chile's presidency. Seven out of 10 votes. Voters in this weekend's election backed right wing parties is expected to face a communist rival in a runoff next month. And a planned auction in Germany of artifacts from prisoners of Nazi concentration camps has been cancelled. The sale triggered a number of protests ranging from the Polish government to Holocaust survivor groups. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. Now. Andrew Ross Sorkin is one of the world's leading financial journalists. He's a CNBC host and founder of the Dealbook newsletter for the New York Times. Plus he's the author of Too Big to fail about the 2008 financial crisis. For his latest project, he's gone back further to 1929, the first major financial crisis. Well, Andrew came into Midori House recently and sat down with Monocle's Chris Chermack, who began by asking what motivates Wall street to keep pushing the boundaries?
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We are always after the lottery ticket. I mean, I think that one of the things that happened actually in the 1920s that we live with today is a sort of shift in even what the American dream is or was. At one point that dream was, you know, this rags to riches kind of, you know, Horatio Alger dream. And I think in the 1920s. And I think that the dream you see on Instagram and TikTok today is a sort of get rich quick skill. And I think everybody wants their chance at the ticket. The problem with getting the lottery ticket is that most people lose or you.
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Get the lottery ticket and then you lose all the money once you've had the lottery.
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Well, that's true too.
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Is part of this also a failure.
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Almost to believe that another crisis can happen? Or is it something else like more.
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Of a hubris in thinking that even if there is a crisis, I'm gonna be the one who's able to ride that wave back.
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I will around on myself and just say that here I will counter my own argument about Moore or the lottery ticket because there's one other piece to it that and it doesn't fit the narrative because the truth is that if you look over the last hundred years, it has been much more profitable to be a professional optimist than a professional skeptic or Cassandra. It just has. In fact, by the way, there's a small of a fun moment in the book where Winston Churchill shows up in New York. He's actually there during the crash, which is shocking. But after the crash, and he had lost some money, he got bitten by the bug too, of stock trading. He talks about the idea of this sort of American optimism. And it's true that speculation, you do need some sense of speculation in the system to create any great innovation. Whoever was investing in Tesla at the beginning, when it seemed like a completely absurd idea, needed to be a speculator. And so you want some kind of speculation. So the question is, is a bubble and the fact that it's going to burst a feature or a bug of this capitalistic system? I question it. I don't know. Because I do at this point.
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It has to feel like a feature.
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No, I think it is.
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But you do want. You're trying to thread this sort of very complicated needle, right, where you're trying to create a system that has some semblance of speculation, but not too much speculation. And how do you find the balance.
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Which does bring us right to today?
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Because I know you've talked about this before, you have warned, said you believe.
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That another bubble is coming.
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How could it not be?
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Exactly. How could it not be? Given our history, it's impossible to believe there won't be. But is there something different about this.
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Time, about AI, the businesses that are leading that effort?
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Or do you watch all of what's.
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Happening now and just think to yourself, we're in the same sort of boom.
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And bust cycle as all.
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No, I don't think it's completely the same. The truth is, look, there's leverage. Is the leverage meaning the loans, the debt, the credit in the system that is the match that lights the fire of a financial crisis?
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Oh, it's.
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So when you look at the euphoria around AI the question is how much leverage is in the system? What are consumers doing? Buy now, pay later? How many loans are being taken out to support the ecosystem that's being built of all of these data centers and the like? So there's part of me that likes to think that maybe we're like 1999 and not 1929, because it's like a tech led bubble. And if it's bursts, maybe for two or three years, equity values are down. One of the big changes that actually happened Post Financial Crisis 2008 that could come back to bite us is we regulated the banks quite heavily. And as a result, most loans in the US and by the way, parts of the rest of the world, are now not really through banks at all anymore. They're through what's called the Shadow banking system. Most people get a loan from, from what's called a private credit fund. And there is no disclosure required. We have no idea really how much leverage is in that system. We don't know how connected it is to other businesses, to the banking system, to anything else. And so to me, the sort of black swan event is not just that you have a crack in the market, but you actually have a crack in this sort of private credit business. And that you learn all of a sudden that there's so much more leverage and people who took out enormous loans, businesses that took out loans and the like that can't be paid back. And then you throw one other piece on the fire that we haven't even talked about the amount of debt that the governments now have, which is to say back in 1929, there was a budget surplus. The US had hardly any debt. I mean, Germany had a lot of debt, but the US was not. That was not the problem. Today, the amount of debt that all of these countries has is enormous. And if you do believe that the answer to every financial crisis is throwing money at the price problem, as politically unpalatable as that may sound, it may be more unpalatable to bond investors and to sort of the investor class that may say, we're not buying these Treasuries anymore, we're not buying sovereign bonds, or we're doing it, but we're going to charge you extraordinary amounts. And then you get into this whole situation of austerity and these sort of vicious cycles.
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And that then just finally maybe brings.
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Us to you, if I could, and.
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Your job, because I am curious when.
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You talk about something like that, the.
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Government debt crisis, any bubble is something.
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That can't really be predicted. But you need those people who are.
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Trying to warn, trying to turn the tide.
A
Do you see that in yourself as well as a financial journalist?
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Is that part of how you envision your role?
A
Is that something, something that can be different today than in past crises that we have people trying to.
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So yes and no. Yes and no. I will say that after the 2008 financial crisis, this is very. Personally, I felt that journalists were blamed. Oftentimes people were upset with the journalists. They said that we did not blow the whistle loud enough and by default, since the crisis happened, perhaps we didn't. And I would suggest if you go back and look at all the writings, we, I think were trying to blow the whistle pretty loudly, but people didn't want to focus on that whistle. And it's true when the musicchuck Prince who ran Citigroup used to say, when the music's playing, you have to dance. And I think that's part of the problem I found more recently, the more I have been cautionary, the more I've received feedback from readers and viewers and the like that it's almost paternalistic and they say, stop trying to protect me, Andrew. And by the way, they say, you're not trying to protect me. You're really protecting the man by sort of being almost paternalistic about these things. So I don't know. I also am very cognizant that being the Cassandra and being right is very difficult. So Charles Merrill of Merrill lynch, he founded Merrill lynch in 1928. He came out and told his clients to get out of the market. Between 1928 and September of 1929, the stock market went up 90%. You can be directionally right but totally wrong on the timing. So I think in terms of my own role, I should be raising the questions, throwing the flags, but not necessarily offering financial advice.
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Andrew Ross Sorkin there speaking to Monocle's Chris Chermak. You can hear the full conversation on Monocle's big interview on a website or wherever you get your podcasts. You're listening to the Global Globalist. It's 8:37 in Zurich, which is where we head next because the Pope brought Hollywood to the Vatican this weekend with the likes of Cate Blanchett and Spike Lee paying a visit to Rome on Saturday. With more on this and a full roundup of all the news flowing out of the Vatican, I'm joined by Juliet Lindley, the journalist, broadcaster and former Vatican correspondent taking up residence in Zurich, though she's in G4 Strasse 90. Good morning, Juliet. How's it looking? Wait, you were.
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Hello, Emma. All good here in Duforstrasse?
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I'm delighted to hear it. And all good and very glam in.
H
St. Peter's so glam. I mean, in the haloed halls of the Apostolic Palace. Look at all those Hollywood stars that came for this very unique moment, if you want, with the leader of the Catholic Church calling on these silver screen stars of Hollywood to be pilgrims of the imagination and calling on them to use their clout to help us rediscover a portion of the hope that's essential for humanity to live to the fullest. So, Emma, this was a sort of a call to arms for hope on the Pope's behalf. It clearly struck a chord with the stars. I mean, Leo made a strong case for safeguarding cinema. And I mean, we are in A world in which streaming apps and sofas are taking the place of a seat at the cinema. And the Pope said, cinema and theater are the beating hearts of our communities. So whether Catholic or not, I mean, these stars seem genuinely moved by his work. He spoke in Italian, by the way, but. And they brought many gifts with them. So I'm going to give an example. So Spike Lee, he brought with him a New York Knicks basketball jersey with the number 14 on it and the name on the back said Pope Leo. And he said he gave it to him because three of the Knicks players went to Villanova. And that is where Pope Leo studied for his bachelor's in maths in the 70s before he entered the priesthood. And then Cate Blanchett, you mentioned her looking amazingly beautiful as always. She's a UNHCR goodwill ambassador. So she said that she gave the pontiff a blue bracelet which she said she wears in solidarity with displaced people and refugees. And in fact, the Aussie actress earlier this year launched the Displacement Film Fund, which actually champions and funds the work of displaced filmmakers to illustrate refugee stories.
A
It's an interesting juxtaposition, isn't it? Because, dare we say it, you know, the Vatican is not short on pomp and glamour itself. It does dress up like arguably no one else on earth. But to actually actively court Hollywood to come to St. Peter's it was quite a remarkable juxtaposition.
H
It was indeed. And in fact, it was such a big deal that in the days leading up to this event on Saturday, the Vatican press office took it upon itself to put out a much commented reveal. And that was of Leo's four best loved films. And just saying, I'm not sure our younger listeners are necessarily gonna recognize all of them. The most recent was from 1997, and so that was La Vitae Bella by Italian filmmaker Roberto Benigni. But then the oldest was from 1946, Frank Capra's wonderful Life. And then his other two favorites were the Sound of Music. I know that you love that one, too. And the musical hit from the 60s, and then Robert Redford's Ordinary People from 1980. So, perhaps unsurprisingly, none of the directors were actually there on Saturday of the top papal silver screen hits. But it's interesting to note, I guess, his taste. And so they're all sort of marred, uplifting genres, emphasizing family, dignity, forgiveness, hope, perseverance, all of them very Christian values, as you know. And then a lot of Vatican analysts decided, let's compare it to his predecessor's preferences. So. And they're so different because Pope Francis cinematic choices were very much a sort of art house movies that he says he grew up watching with his Italian immigrant parents in Argentina. And they would have been like Federico Fellini's La Strada, Visconti's the Leopard, Il ga Pardo, and then Roberto Rossellini's Roma Citta Aperta.
A
So very different indeed. I mean, the mind absolutely boggles at the moment of a movie night with popcorn with a bunch of priests and the Pope sitting down to watch Julie Andrews do her thing with the nuns in Salzburg, then that's an idea that's going to stay with us for quite a long time. What else is happening in the world of the Vatican at the moment? We have a big meeting of cardinals coming up in Germany.
H
Yeah. So it's called a consistory. And that's when all the princes of the church come together. The cardinals, they come to the Vatican, they're called in by the pope. And it's a meet. It's a meet and greet in a way, because they come from all corners of the earth and a lot of them don't know each other. So this is their chance to meet each other and of course, to meet the big man himself. But it's also the moment in which the pope, Pope Leo in this case, will sort of let known be known his plans for the pontificate. It's been now six months and counting since he was voted into office, and it's still pretty unclear exactly which way this papacy is going. So this consistory is going to be looked at quite carefully, and it's not going to be easy for Leo. He is walking a very fine line between being too much like Francis, who cared very little for precedent and tradition, and was perceived as a rebel in many ways and not particularly liked, let's say, by the conservative US Catholics especially. So between that and showing that he's his own man, and all the while maintaining a sense of continuity, because he's got to continue this thousands of years long, the church that has been there for so long. And this is going to be the beginning of what's known as the Leonine era. And certainly he's already starting to leave his mark. If you start by looking at his choice of his first international trip and now not going to stop on that for very long. Emma. But just in a couple of weeks, he's going to Lebanon and Turkey. And when Queen Rania of Jordan recently met him at the Vatican, said, but, you know, your holiness, is it safe for you to go? He apparently reportedly replied, we're going with a faint hint of a smile. And it was seen as a sign of determination and sort of determination to do things his way, where it counts.
A
Quick word on the Vaticans Romeo and Juliet.
H
Ah, here we go. We're looking at the Vatican bank and Silvia Carlucci and Domenico Fabiani. You're not going to know these names, but they filed a wrongful termination suit last January, just four months after tying the knot because they were fired for violating the Vatican Bank's internal rule that bars workplace marriages. Now, 14 months after they wed, they've now been rehired in a negotiated settlement. Now, the story got a lot of traction because the new regulation forbidding spouses from working at the bank came into force after they had announced to everybody that they were getting married. And while the Vatican bank, which is known as the yor, which is the Instituto Opera Religiose, they suggested that one of them should quit in order to fall in line with the rules. But that was a bit rich and in fact they said, I mean they couldn't possibly afford to quit. Both of them have, by the way, children from previous marriages as well as mortgages and, and other financial obligations. So it was kind of, they both were in this situation where they took it to the courts and now it's gone through in their favor. So this is obviously a policy for fighting nepotism amongst staff. This is Italy after all. But the case did come to be known as sort of the Romeo and Juliet at the Vatican.
A
Juliet Lindley, our Juliet, former Vatican correspondent at Dufourstrassen 90 in Zurich. Thank you so much for joining us on Globalist. Now for a look behind some of the headlines we're following, here's Monocle's associate editor for design and fashion, Grace Charlton on Loro Piana's reopened London flagship. As London progress prepares itself for the end of year shopping rush, Loro Piana has tactfully refurbished and expanded its new Bond street outpost. As part of this reopening, the luxury Italian fashion brand joined forces with London based curator Judith Clarke to install an in store exhibition. Titled Master of Fibres. It narrates the century long history of the house with cabinets that display the fabric, sample books and documents from Laura Piana's archive in Piedmont. The simple travertine clad exterior of the shop betrays its vast interiors. Here, rooms are split according to function from accessories and ready to wear to a space for top bill clients. Available by appointment only. Throughout the space, natural materials think marble, silk and brass create a cohesive tactile feel. And if that's not enough to entice Loro, Piana has made sure to turn up the twinkle factor on its window displays. And my thanks to Monocle's Grace Charlton. For more, sign up to our daily newsletter, the Monocle Minute. Head over to monocle.com minute I can EQ, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at UBS. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly.
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Evolving age, you need a partner with.
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Decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. Ubiquitous banking is our craft. 10:47am in Riyadh 7:47am here in London now, Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 project to diversify the Gulf state's sources of income is encompassing practically every aspect of the economy, the infrastructure and society. And the scale and speed of this change is breathtaking. Currently being demonstrated at Cityscape Global in the the capital Riyadh, from where we can now talk to Monocle's Gulf correspondent in Zaman Rashid. Good morning, Indzi.
G
Yeah, so we're actually just about an hour outside of Riyadh, a place called Malham. And I was saying this isn't the limestone North Yorkshire village of Malham. It's a very sandy place and they're literally in the middle of the Arabian desert. But there's this huge exhibition center which has been set up with some really beautiful exhibitions across this huge hallway. Around 170,000 visitors expected to descend on Cityscape Global over the next few days. 550 exhibitors, 500 international speakers. It's a very, very global crowd here in Saudi Arabia. And this year's headline, Emma, is the future of Urban Living. That's the whole theme of this exhibition and that's I think quite important. And how Saudi really want to perhaps display itself. Right now it signals Saudi Arabia's desire to talk less about mega scale for its own sake perhaps, and probably more a bit about livability, sustainability, digital infrastructure as well, and how cities feel as well as how they look. What is hugely interesting is that there will be art partners from all over the world attending over the next few days. But there is obviously a huge presence from many of the Saudi and the PIF act real estate developers who have bought some of these huge mega GIGA projects across the country. And particularly as they focus towards that Vision 2030 and also bringing in huge amounts of foreign direct investment, allowing people, people from next year to actually invest in Saudi Arabia to purchase property across the whole kingdom.
A
Explain who's coming, who's interested.
G
A lot of people, I think. So we will see this big CEOs of Saudi companies, but we'll actually also see kind of mayors, also urban planners from around the world. We're expected to see many government ministers from both countries as well fly in. And also there will be kind of ex footballers as well, people who've probably got quite interesting sponsorship deals with many of the GIGA projects as well, who'll be speaking on the stage. It's an interesting event though, because subtly, and I'm talking to you from the NEOM exhibition which I have today, it absolutely stunning, but there's a noticeable look of information about the NEOM line here. There's no kind of display of it, there's no fancy screenery which is showing images of the line and that this all falls on a drop of Saudi Arabia's most ambitious development, the line where global scrutiny has grown around cost timelines, engineering feasibility and scaling back. And so this whole event, while there is a huge fanfare for Saudi Arabia and all the incredible work that they are doing at Paif, falls on a pretty uncertain backdrop as well.
A
Indeed. I mean, just to recap for us what's going wrong with NEOM and indeed the Line, because anybody who's seen the image of what they wanted the line to be, it was this sort of this building that stretched and stretched and stretched tall and thin through the desert, defying the laws of gravity and physics. And this is arguably what's actually been its major problem, isn't it you can't beat physics.
G
Well, quite. And I think that's been the issue. It's just over ambition. And that's what Saudi has probably struggled with. They brought in pif, has brought in a number of consultants to review the NEOM project, the line to understand where they can scale back, what can they do to keep as much of the original idea and original plan as they produce to the whole world and the whole world to get excited about as well. And it's our understanding that there has now been huge discussions to scale back because simply there's not enough money to create this spectacle and also to create it in time. They said they wanted around 9 million people living there. By tempting billions, it will be a genuine surprise for me if you can get one person living there by then at the scale at which they're moving. But also it's just physically not impossible to do a lot of the stuff that they're attempting to do. This space would have been a lot higher than the Shard. It would have been a very thin line, which is a 15 minute walkable kind of city. And it's, it just feels like it physically is impossible to do. There's a lot of questions around it. Now, I'll be speaking to one of the bosses here at Neom a little bit later today to understand exactly where they're at. They've been very coy, very cautious about the media messaging around all of it as well. So we'll try and get a bit of clarity from them. But as I said, the wider Citizegate global, really, you kind of do get a sense here that actually, actually, whilst there is so much great stuff happening in Saudi Arabia and at such a pace, the overhanging shadow of what's actually happening in Neom and some other Giga projects as well definitely cast a shadow over this event.
A
One thing that we have seen in the last couple of days is there's been an article in the Financial Times talking about Donald Trump and we mentioned about international investment. Well, one of the people who seems to be extremely interested in Saudi projects is the US President and there has been obviously, you know, doubts raised about, well, not doubts, but concerns raised about the mixing of business and pleasure. How has that gone down in Saudi?
G
Well, I think Saudi are very excited because the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will be visiting the US this week. He will be on his first tour to the United States in seven years and I think we'll expect a pretty similar kind of rollout of the red carpet or purple carpet. It was here in Riyadh for Donald Trump and he visited in May. And so there will be a lot of conversation around many things like defense deals and AI chips, etc. Etc. But there will also be a lot of conversation around Donald Trump's investment into this region. You've got strong partnerships with the real estate developers DAR Global. They are building a number of projects under the Trump brand here in Saudi Arabia. But also when Donald Trump did visit in May, there was a visit to the Diriyar Gate development, this huge, huge city within a city. And what will be really interesting is that they will no doubt talk about Donald Trump's further investments in Riyadh, his government owned real estate developments, sorry, Deria being a government owned real estate development, and whether he will actually have a stake in that development as well. So, As I said, Mr. Trump will host Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman later this week and he is actually the one overseeing the $63 billion project that will transform the historic Saudi town of Duria into this luxury destination with hotels, retail shops and office space. Now, Jerry Inzerillo, the chief executive of Duria has said that there's nothing and announced yet, but soon there will be. And he is a longtime friend of President Trump. He said that it would just be a matter of time before the Trump Organization actually sealed a deal. So I would not be surprised if returning from this trip, Mohammed bin Salman has perhaps persuaded the president to invest more into real estate, perhaps away from the tech and the defense deal, which will be happening as well. Well, real estate as well will be a huge, a huge involvement here.
A
We'll have to leave it there in Zaman Rashid, thank you so much for joining us from Cityscape Global in Saudi Arabia. Now, the contemporary artist Shehzad Daoud has been revealed as the inaugural winner of the Patina Art residency. It's a new annual art award from Patina Hotels and Resorts and it celebrates artists whose work reflects a commitment to impact and to sustainability on monocles. Tom Webb caught up with Shehzad at his studio to talk about the award and his upcoming exhibition in Abu Dhabi.
C
I guess I started out 10 years ago sort of nervously knocking on scientists doors wondering if they'd talk to artist. And you know, 10 years later, weirdly, I, you know, in the way these things go, I seem to be known for this now and people approach me and I seem to start to win awards based around it, which is nice after a decade of working in the field and trying to sort of talk about things that I feel are very important and that I'm very passionate about. So it gives me a chance to work on the ground, do some research, engage with new markets, mines and the context there. Again, you know, we know there's sort of coral reefs in the Maldives have been really have seen mass die off. So how does one respond to that artistically? How does one communicate it to more people? For me, a lot of the work around oceans I do is trying to make the invisible visible. You know, it's, it's almost like the old esoteric maxim as above. So below how, how do we connect the dots and start to get people more engaged and to see what otherwise can easily remain unseen.
A
And you work across all mediums to achieve this. That was going to be my next question.
F
How you are using your art to communicate this message? What kind of pieces are you creating?
A
What does it look like and what do they convey?
C
I mean, up to this point, point, you know, I am quite multidisciplinary whatever people think of that term. I always used to get told off for it at college and onwards for not focusing. But I never really saw the world in one way. For me it's like, how do you join dots? How do you find the right form to express an idea? And that's not always through one specific medium. You know, I make paintings, I make sculpture, but I also work with film and more recently digital media. And I think it's all about how to tell a story and how best to connect with your audience in doing so.
A
And nature informs a lot of your work and the colours that you use.
G
I want to talk about a very.
A
Exciting piece that you showed me, a piece of coral which is so staggering.
F
To look at at because it's.
A
The detail is amazing, but there's a little trick up its sleeve, I guess.
C
I've always been really interested in the materials I work with and sort of pushing the envelope with them. So I'm often testing things out. So the, you know, little coral sculpture we looked at is actually made of bronze, but then it's carefully hand painted almost to disguise the fact that it's bronze. So I like to sort of see what materials can do. But I guess the trick you're referring to was I was quite interested. You know, one of the things I, that, you know, I fall in love with each time again is marine bioluminescence. And I was interested to see if one could reproduce that through paint. And you know, we work with fluorescent paints, but then how do you make them stable and archival for an artwork? And you could tell all this is what you thought, Tom. But, you know, I think we got. Got it and you know, it's this beautiful little coral work that, that literally glows in the dark. And I, it's an addition, but I keep one in the studio and it's, you know, when I turn off the lights in the studio in winter and go home, it's a nice goodbye. It's a nice way of saying goodbye to the studio. And the coral says goodbye to me.
A
Not to sell it in the most dramatic way possible, but I'm already thinking of saving to buy one.
G
Is there one left?
A
There's a. How many?
G
There's one left.
C
There's an addition of 10 and there's a couple left.
A
Okay, there we go. You're living for a very exciting time in your career. What's coming up next year?
G
Have you got a mid career review?
C
I've got a. Yes, quite a large scale mid career retrospective at the cultural foundation in Abu Dhabi, which opens late March through September. And, you know, we're working on a new sort of monograph about focusing on probably the last 15 years of my career. And how does that make you feel? When they first approached me about it, I was like, oh, have I got to that stage already? It kind of felt kind of slightly aging, but I kind of come to terms with it and it's actually been, you know, after. When you get over that. Once I got over that, I've. I've just sort of. It's been really nice to revisit old friends, and particularly, you know, because it goes back 15 years, you know, we're borrowing back works from private and institutional collections, some of which I haven't seen since they were first made. And so I'm starting to get quite excited about reconnecting with some old friends.
A
And that was Shehzad Daoud talking to Monocle's Tom Webb. And that's all the time we have for today's programme. The warmest of thanks to our guests and to the producers, Vincent McEvinney, Chris Chermack and Laura Kramer. Our researcher was Joanna Moser. Our studio producer manager was Steph Chungu, with assistance from Lily Austin and Desiree Bandley in Zurich. After the headlines, more music on the way. The Briefing's live at midday here in London. I'll be back with the Globe list at the same time tomorrow, but for now, from me, Emma Nelson, Goodbye. Thank you for listening. Have a great week. With ubs. You have a truly global partner incorporating new technology, technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us.
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Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.
Date: November 17, 2025
Host: Emma Nelson
Main Theme: Germany’s Vulnerability to China — Economic entanglements, emerging de-risking strategies, and the European response. Also featured: Tensions in East Asia, global financial bubbles, the Vatican and Hollywood, Saudi mega-projects, and art and sustainability.
[03:03 – 12:33]
Guest: Aaron Burnett, Senior Fellow, Democratic Strategy Initiative, Berlin
Germany’s Dependency:
“The dependence of Germany on rare earths is so total...that Germany’s own rearmament is very much at risk if a solution to the rare earths issue is not found.”
— Aaron Burnett [03:07]
Chinese Leverage & IP Demands:
Shifting Legislation:
“You can have a strategy, but if it just is a nice document that sits on paper and you don’t intend to follow through, then what is the point?”
— Aaron Burnett [06:47]
Geopolitical Forces & ‘De-Risking’ vs. ‘Decoupling’:
Federal vs. State Dynamics:
“The challenges really are immense because we are seeing much even increasing investment in China by German firms at a time when the government is saying it wants to de-risk.”
— Aaron Burnett [12:16]
[12:33 – 20:41]
Guest: Dr. Yu Hua Chen, Assistant Professor, Akita International University, Japan
Senkaku Islands Incident:
Diplomatic & Economic Fallout:
Public & Political Sentiment:
“More than 70% of people in Japan support Takaichi’s government… about 50% agree Japan should use force in a Taiwan contingency. This is very amazing.”
— Dr. Yu Hua Chen [19:45]
Beijing’s Strategy:
[21:51 – 30:42]
In Studio: Charles Hecker, Russia analyst & author, with Emma Nelson
Trump’s 180° on Epstein Files:
“This is his sort of typical kind of a pox on all your houses, 180… If I don’t have the votes, I’m gonna pretend I didn’t care in the first place.”
— Charles Hecker [22:13]
Potential Military Standoff with Venezuela:
“Venezuela is in the US Sphere of influence… There is an enormous amount of oil… similarities to the buildup to the second invasion of Iraq.”
— Charles Hecker [29:14]
[32:13 – 39:42]
Interview: Andrew Ross Sorkin (CNBC/New York Times Dealbook), with Chris Chermak
Speculation and Risk:
Is the Next Bubble Different?
“Most loans… are now not really through banks… they're through what's called the shadow banking system. …We have no idea how much leverage is in that system.”
— Andrew Ross Sorkin [35:21]
Role of Financial Journalists:
“The more I have been cautionary, the more I’ve received feedback… that it’s almost paternalistic and they say, stop trying to protect me, Andrew.”
— Andrew Ross Sorkin [38:16]
[39:42 – 47:28]
Guest: Juliet Lindley, journalist & former Vatican correspondent
Pope Leo Hosts Hollywood:
Vatican’s Cinematic Taste:
[49:30 – 58:51]
Guest: Indzi Rashid, Monocle’s Gulf Correspondent (live from Cityscape Global Expo, near Riyadh)
Cityscape Global:
NEOM & ‘The Line’:
US Involvement:
[58:51 – 64:23]
Interview: Shezad Dawoud, artist & inaugural Patina Art residency awardee, with Tom Webb
“For me, a lot of the work around oceans I do is trying to make the invisible visible.”
— Shezad Dawoud [59:39]
On Germany’s China dependency:
“China is no longer engaging in espionage or corporate espionage that it makes some show of hiding. It is doing it right in the open, using Germany’s own dependence against it.”
— Aaron Burnett [03:47]
On Regulation vs. Reality:
“Are we repeating the same mistake with Chinese critical minerals as we did with Russian gas?”
— Aaron Burnett [07:47]
On American optimism & speculation:
“It has been much more profitable to be a professional optimist than a professional skeptic or Cassandra.”
— Andrew Ross Sorkin [33:10]
On artistic communication:
“How do we connect the dots and start to get people more engaged and to see what otherwise can easily remain unseen.”
— Shezad Dawoud [59:39]
On overambition at NEOM:
“They said they wanted around 9 million people living there… It will be a genuine surprise if you can get one person living there by then…”
— Indzi Rashid [54:05]
Tone: The episode maintains a brisk, informed, and cosmopolitan tone—mixing serious policy analysis, financial insight, and global cultural coverage with accessible, lively conversation.