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Georgina Godwin
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 10th February 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
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Zoe Grunewald
Hello.
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Georgina Godwin
This is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin on the show ahead.
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President of Estonia (Alar Karis)
And they want to make a deal.
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Tom Grundy
Iran as they should want to make.
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Georgina Godwin
A deal and know the consequences if they don't. Is the US offering Iran a deal or delivering a threat? We look at how that message lands as reformists and activists are rounded up in the country and Netanyahu heads to Washington. Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai has been sentenced to 20 years in prison. We'll ask what this means for the future of the media in the territory then.
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President of Estonia (Alar Karis)
Defence is important now and important for Europe. It's important for Estonia, so we are developing it very, very fast.
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Georgina Godwin
That's the President of Estonia who caught up with our editorial director at the World Government Summit. We'll hear more about what Tallinn plans to bring to the global stage. We'll have a look through the newspapers, including the British Prime Minister's travails currently dominating the UK press, have a roundup of travel stories and hear the latest arts and culture news before ending the show in Milan at the Winter Olympics. That's all ahead here on the Globalist, live from London. First to look at what else is happening in the news. Armenia and the United States agreed a landmark civil nuclear cooperation deal that could rewire the South Caucus's energy map, weaken Russia's long held influence and anchor Yerevan more firmly to Washington after a U S brokered peace process. China is set to deepen its political and economic influence in Bangladesh after this week's election as ties with India fray following the fall of Sheikh Hasina and Beijing steps up defence, infrastructure and trade engagement in Dhaka. And police in Sydney used tear gas, pepper spray and mounted officers to disperse thousands protesting the Australian visit of Israeli President Isaac Herzog with authorities defending rarely used crowd control powers amid claims of excessive force. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now Iran is detaining senior reformist figures while Reopening diplomatic channels, with Washington framing the arrests as a response to political and social order at a moment of external pressure from the US And Israel. The move comes as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the US President Donald Trump prepare to meet in Washington to discuss Iran's nuclear program, with Tehran signaling limited flexibility on enrichment if sanctions are lifted. Well, I'm joined now by Tara Kangalu, who is a journalist for NBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, as well as the author of the Heartbeat of Iran. Tara, it's always a pleasure to have you with us. Iran says these arrests are about protecting political and social at a time of military threats, what is the leadership really concerned about?
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Tara Kangalu
Thanks for having me, Georgina. World the arrest, as we've seen previously over the years, are about controlling any form of dissent, any opposition voice in Iran. In fact, I was speaking with a mother in Tehran just a few days ago who participated in every single protest since the Islamic revolution and she said our brightest are now in Evan prison. And Evan prison right now is more like a library or university. So I am not surprised to see this mass arrest. And again, historically it's been proven that the regime cracks down on reformists, intellectuals, lawyers, human rights activists and so on and so forth after any protests or quite frankly, what we saw in the 12 day war in June, this happened then as well. Two people want to point out to you that are standing significant. Of course, any arrest is significant, but it's worth mentioning the son of Mehdi Karubi, who was a leading Reformist candidate in 2009, he was arrested yesterday and the Nobel Peace Laureate Nargis Mohammadi is now seeing an additional seven year sentence to an already six years sentencing that she had.
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Georgina Godwin
So Trump has repeatedly warned Iran to stop persecuting protesters. So what's the rationale of this move whilst talks are ongoing?
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Tara Kangalu
I don't think Iranian government is seeing any correlation between what they do domestically with what comes out of Washington. And I think that's part of the irresponsibility of the U.S. policymaking. The United States President Trump came earlier in the protests asking protesters to come out, saying that he's going to help them and help Islam on the way. And that's when you saw thousands of people coming on the streets empty handed, paying the price with their lives and nothing happened. So I don't think the arrests in Iran as done by the Iranian regime are carried out with any concern with what Donald Trump is going to do. And so this has been a pattern that we've seen so where is the.
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Georgina Godwin
Help he promised an armada?
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Tara Kangalu
I have no idea. I think we're yet to see and I think the biggest losers in all of this are The Iranian people, 90 million people, Georgina, who are over half of them living below the poverty line. And what my question is, as the nuclear deals are I guess progressing. We saw them meeting in Oman just a few days ago and they're now discussing when the next meeting is going to be. And presumably it went well, it didn't go south. All the while talks of the strike are still on the table. But my question is whether there is a nuclear deal, whether Iran's missile program is contained, whether Iran agrees to not provide support from, for its proxies in the region which are part of this discussions. Where is the well being of the Iranian people in all of this? People who, whose biggest grievance are the economy and the lack of any form of sociopolitical freedom.
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Georgina Godwin
We're hearing as you're talking about it, the talks, that there are diplomatic signals that perhaps there might be slight loosenings here, a bit of room for compromise. Iran's nuclear chief has talked about the possible dilution of 60% enriched uranium if sanctions are removed. Do you think this is realistic and can he be trusted or is this just a bargaining tactic?
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Tara Kangalu
Anything is possible and anything is realistic. A few days ago we were hearing that Iran is going to send its uranium stockpile to Russia, because that's one of the discussions. Okay, what are we doing with the, with the, with the stockpile? And then on the other hand, the Trump administration is saying we want zero enrichment, that this is the line that we've been getting since the war. So there are multiple discussion points. And I also want to underscore and emphasize that the missiles are part of this discussion. This is Iran. So this has been Iran's red line and we have to see what happens there. So this, the 60% reduction, can it happen? Maybe, but, but this is while there has already been talks of zero enrichment, to which Iran has said no. But the United States, the United States is insisting on one thing, Georgina, if I may say. J.D. vance is in Armenia, an unprecedented trip by the way, on its own. And there he said that in the negotiat we are considering the well being of protesters, which for many in Iran, the people, I mean is not enough. And this is the first time we're seeing that, you know, the protesters are even mentioned in these talks.
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Georgina Godwin
So Benjamin Netanyahu's on his way to Washington. He reportedly brought this meeting forward wanting to ensure that the US And Israel are on the same page when it comes to Washington's negotiations with Tehran. I wonder if that's the case, what will Israel be pushing for the US to do? And will Netanyahu achieve his aim, whatever that is.
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Tara Kangalu
The disconnect right now where we have seen Benjamin Netanyahu for long wanting a war with Iran. And these are discussions that we've had in previous, you know, moments like this where in some ways, Israel's Netanyahu wanted to drag the United States in the war that he wanted all along. We have to remember this is something that Netanyahu had longed for, a conflict with Iran. And as you mentioned, he's off to Washington soon. And many are saying that there is a chance that he might strike Iran on its own, unilaterally, without the consent of Washington. I don't think that's likely. And even so, I believe it might be contained the idea of the Iranian. But the idea of the Trump administration striking Iran surgically and then coming to the negotiating table, that also I think is a possibility. But we have to remember that a conflict with Iran has long been a policy and ask of Benjamin Netanyahu to serve his strictly his interests.
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Georgina Godwin
We're also told that Netanyahu doesn't trust Trump's representatives in the region. That's Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Netanyahu's had tension with both in the past. What's the backstory there?
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Tara Kangalu
Yes and no. It's also important to note that historically, actually, over the years, Benjamin Netanyahu had a very close relationship with the Kushner family, even to the extent that he would stay with them when he would visit New York. And you have. We also have to look at Gaza and what's happening there with the border peace. Is he unhappy with the US Tragedy strategy? There may be, but. But I don't think that there is any sour relationships with, especially with Kushner. There might be disagreements, but I think more than Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner is the key figure. And for long, the two have been close.
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Georgina Godwin
And just finally, Tara, how is any US Or Israeli action, either unilaterally, unilaterally or bilaterally likely to land in the region?
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Tara Kangalu
It's going to be a devastation. I was just in Saudi Arabia, and, you know, none of the Gulf countries want any confrontation between Iran and the United States because it's going to have a huge impact economically, but also politically in these countries. Also, we shouldn't forget Turkey. Turkey has played a huge role in these latest talks. And along with Gulf countries, countries does not want any confrontation. We have to again, look very closely. Lebanon is a place we need to focus on because anything that happens with Iran is going to have an impact on Hezbollah's behavior in Lebanon, and Lebanon is quite wary of that. So huge implications for the region. And quite frankly, no one there wants a full blown conflict between the United States and Iran because Israel is going to get dragged in and pretty much wanting to continue it. They don't want that.
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Georgina Godwin
Tara, thank you very much indeed. That was Tara Kangalu, who's a journalist for NBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, as well as the author of the Heartbeat of Iran. This is the global. It is 1512 in Hong Kong, 712 here in London. Now, yesterday a Hong Kong court sentenced Pro Democracy media founder Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison for offenses under the National Security Law. It's the longest sentence handed down under the law. And former Apple Daily executives have also received jail terms. The United nations and several European countries have expressed concern. The UK has called for his release and announced plans to expand its visa scheme. So I'm joined now by Tom Grundy, who's the editor in chief and co founder of Hong Kong Free Press. Tom, many thanks for speaking to us. Remind us of Lai's supposed crimes, which he denies.
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Tom Grundy
Well, Jimmy Lai was arrested in the wake of the 2019 pro democracy unrest. It was an apparently less movement, but his Apple Daily, always wildly popular, was seen to be siding with the protesters. During his 156th day trial, he was accused of using his tabloid to lobby foreign nations to impose sanctions or blockades upon China and Hong Kong. And he was said to incited hatred against the authorities with 161 op eds that he wrote. Basically, he will now be 95 if he gets out in 2044. So although we're not seeing headlines about the maximum sentence, which is life, it does seem likely that he may die behind bars. He is, after all, in very poor health.
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Georgina Godwin
He's 78 years old, but he's also a British citizen. Does that make any difference?
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Tom Grundy
It hasn't made any difference as far as I think local authorities are concerned. He's Chinese. He was born in Guangdong. He came over to the city as a child. He was a laborer in a textile factory before launching his own clothing chain. And from there he worked himself up to launching, you know, the Apple Daily. Keir Starmer, the UK PM was, was making representations to Xi Jinping last a couple of weeks ago and many have urged for his release. But the fact is it's obviously fallen on deaf ears. Although the UK is the one country we have seen in reaction, actually put something out a bit more tangible in the wake of the sentencing. They've said that they're expanding a visa scheme for Hong Kongers so that thousands more can resettle in the UK and.
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Georgina Godwin
How have media organizations in Hong Kong responded to the verdict?
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Tom Grundy
Well, look, going through the papers this morning, it's a celebratory mood among the establishment and the papers locally, I have seen no criticism. The leading South China Morning Post hailed the sentencing in their editorial this morning. State media, certainly. I contacted the Hong Kong Journalist association yesterday. They said they were not able to comment freely. The foreign correspondence Club also said they've got no comments at this time. So maybe, you know, that speaks for itself.
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Georgina Godwin
I mean, we've seen around 10 outlets close and large numbers of journalists leave the city since 2020. Do you think this ruling will accelerate that exodus or has it already reached a tipping point?
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Tom Grundy
Well, look, for the press, the changes were already baked in. Nothing really changes. We knew where this was going years ago and took note. This is not the once freewheeling, you know, city it was in terms of civil liberties and the press freedom hub. It used to be among the region. Some international outlets, you know, over the last five, six years of this national security era have voted with their feet. The Wall Street Journal, New York Times have uprooted some of their staff to the likes of Singapore AFP downgrading its operations here. Because the fact is, I mean, long before this sentencing this week, we've seen 1,000 journalists out of work, outlets closing, editors jailed a couple of years ago for Stan News. So, you know, more widely as well, Hong Kongers have seen this pan out in recent years. And examples have been made of people a lot closer to home than Jimmy with jailings for, you know, slogans, T shirts, speech online and over 60 civil society groups disappearing.
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Georgina Godwin
Now, as you say, Britain's expanding its visa scheme for Hong Kongers. Are we now looking at a future where Hong Kong journalism increasingly operates from exile rather than from the city itself?
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Tom Grundy
Yeah, that's true. I mean, there are some based in the uk they tend to be in Chinese. There are some in Taiwan as well. A lot of them are actually staffed by former Apple Daily staff journalists. But, you know, you then are not really on the ground and able to speak to Hong Kongers or capture some of the nuance. And it can be argued, you know, accuracy can suffer. We're constantly at Hong Kong Free Press, you know, thinking about our situation on the ground here. But I feel, you know, we are still able to go to the courts and bear witness us covering this trial from start to finish. We're able to go to the legislature, write the first draft of history and turn up to press conferences and ask tough questions, as we did with the chief executive press conference this morning. So the pros outweigh the cons, I think, for us. But for others, they are able to do stories perhaps we aren't able to do, such as interviewing wanted dissidents, for instance.
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Georgina Godwin
Just tell us a little about that press conference this morning. What was said and what was asked?
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Tom Grundy
Well, he was John Lee, city's leader, was justifying the sentences of Jimmy Lai hailing it. And we also heard in the early hours that Beijing has passed down a white paper that basically laid out, recapped and hailed everything that Hong Kong has been doing in terms of this national security project. The thousands of bureaucrats, the millions of dollars involved, affirming the city's actions, much to the pleasure of John Lee, who said that the document was a stern warning to traitors of the country and Hong Kong. It basically said, you know, China has a fundamental responsibility for national security matters in the city and that the government has been delivering solid results. And it did refer to the Lai case at one point, saying that it was an example of Hong Kong's judicial departments adjudicating impartially. But as we know, you know, Jimmy was not able to have his first choice of lawyer. He did not face a jury, there was no bail and the lawyer, the judges on the case were handpicked by the city's chief executive to try national security cases.
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Georgina Godwin
Tom Grundy speaking to us from Hong Kong, thank you very much indeed. Now, still to come on the programme.
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Ed Stocker
I'll be bringing you the latest from the women's ice hockey at Milano Cortina 2026. I'm here recording this at the Ro Ice Arena.
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Georgina Godwin
That's Monocle's Europe editor at large, Ed Stocker in the crowds at the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics yesterday. We'll hear more from him and about Monocle's coverage of the Games later in the show. This is the globalist.
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Tara Kangalu
Foreign.
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Georgina Godwin
Just coming up to 7:21 here in London. I'm live at Midori House. With me is Zoe Grunewald, who is Westminster Editor at the Lead to have a look at today's papers. And Zoe, of course, Starmer drama. It's dominating the UK press. As of this moment, Keir Starmer is still the British Prime Minister. Yesterday, though, for a minute it looked a bit. Bit dodgy.
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Zoe Grunewald
It did. It did look a bit dodgy. It's looked a bit dodgy for the past week. I think we're, we're out the worst of it now. It doesn't look like Keir Starmer's going to go this week. If you'd spoken to me this time yesterday morning, I might say he'll be gone in the next few days. That is how quickly things were moving in Westminster yesterday. This, of course, is off the back of the huge scandal that exploded in Westminster last week when it was revealed that Keir Starmer was aware of Peter Mandelson's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Of course, Peter Mandelson had been been appointed Ambassador to Washington. Keir Starmer has been fighting off complaints from his MPs over the past few months. But this particularly culminated in a lot of anger last week. It seems he was saved by the Scottish Labour leader Alasawa's intervention. Yesterday. He actually came out and called for Keir Starmer to resign and it. It seemed like that could be the moment that toppled everything, but actually it focused the parliamentary Labour Party into, I think, reality, where they suddenly said, hang on, we don't have a clear successor. We're about to head into a by election. We're a few months out from the local elections. If we go ahead and depose Keir Starmer now, this could get very messy for the party.
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Georgina Godwin
So those by elections, I think they're in May. Will he go after May?
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Zoe Grunewald
Well, so there's a by election in February, which is a seat in Manchester called Gorton and Denton that I think is going to be the real pressure point, because what we're seeing there is a presumably safe Labour seat that is going to be nibbled by either Reform or the Greens. These two parties on the left and the right of politics. If Labour is to lose to the Greens or to Reform, I think you're going to see more cause from his party to actually go now.
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Georgina Godwin
Mandelson, of course, implicated now for many, many years in lots of different positions. So who knew what when. I mean, he was Business Secretary. He was giving secret information to Epstein. He's been in many roles and it's clear that his relationship with Epstein has coincided with all of that. So how deep does this go?
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Zoe Grunewald
Well, this is the question. So there's a police investigation into Peter Mandelson's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, particularly what information he might have passed to him while he was in. There is also going to be an internal investigation. The Cabinet Office is looking into this, of course, and there is going to be files about Peter Mandelson appointment, how it was he was able to get through secure vetting for the role of Ambassador when he had this well known relationship with Epstein. So that raises questions for the Prime Minister. It also raises questions of the security service. So we talked about the by election as being the next pinch point. But actually if over the next few weeks there's more incriminating information about Peter Mandelson or indeed what the Prime Minister knew when he appointed Mandelson, that could cause. Cause this all to flare up again.
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Georgina Godwin
Yeah, and we know of course that his special advisor, Morgan McSweeney has gone and so is his Head of Comms. Now, as you say, there's a lot more information that may well come out. And what this is looking like is that there was a lot of corruption in government. And in fact this is another story we want to look at because the UK and the US have sunk to new lows in the Global Index of Corruption. Unpack that story for us.
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Zoe Grunewald
Yes, so this is the Corruption Perception Corruptions Index. This is a index that's released every year by the campaign group Transparency International. And it looks at the overall levels of corruption in countries across the globe. Both Britain and the US have been gradually falling down the rankings, but they're both facing one of their worst years yet. So Britain is now down to 70 out of 100. And this transparency International say is due to election campaigning. So obviously we had the election in 2024. They're talking about huge single donations made by a single don have prompted calls for transparency. They were also pointed to reports that Elon Musk was considered to be making a huge donation to Reform UK and Labour particularly giving. And you might remember this from the beginning of Keir Starmer's premiership, a privileged pass to its largest donor, Wahid Ali, essentially a pass to number 10. So Transparency International is basically calling on the government to try and be more transparent, more secure. And the same thing is happening in the US as well. Particularly they flagged the release of the Epstein files, but also the Democratic backsliding we've been seeing under Donald Trump's presidency.
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Georgina Godwin
I want to not talk about Epstein, but it's almost impossible because the story is infecting almost every corner of the news right now. Now, Ghislaine Maxwell, who is the only person who's gone to prison for this woman, has refused to answer questions about Epstein in a congressional hearing. She's hearing, she's pleaded the Fifth. Tell us more.
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Zoe Grunewald
Yeah, so she appeared virtually for a closed door deposition yesterday. This was for the U.S. house Oversight Committee, as you said. She just pleaded the Fifth, which is the rem. My right to remain silent the whole time. Obviously, the Democrats were very disappointed in this. The Republican also, this is Republican House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer said it was obviously very disappointing. They had lots of questions to ask about Epstein and she didn't answer them. But what was interesting is actually Maxwell was said to have implied that she would be willing to answer questions about Epstein and indeed testify to the fact that neither Trump nor Clinton were involved with Jeffrey Epstein if she was potentially granted clemency from Donald Trump. So basically a pardon, which is extraordinary and we think could that happen. But you know, with Donald Trump that he's very opportunistic and if he sees a sense that he could get Ghislaine Maxwell to say, actually Donald Trump didn't have anything to do with any of this, you do wonder if he would take it.
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Georgina Godwin
Yeah, absolutely. And you can't blame her. It's her only bargaining chip left, really, isn't it?
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Zoe Grunewald
Well, absolutely. I mean, she doesn't have a lot of to go on. And obviously she is the only person, as you say, from the whole Epstein crisis to be in prison. So it is interesting that her testimony is obviously so crucial.
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Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. And of course, we must not forget the victims in all of this. Let's talk about mass tourism in Capri. They look like herds of sheep, says an official.
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Zoe Grunewald
Yes, the locals in Capri are getting increasingly frustrated with the huge number of day trippers, cruise ships, tourists that are being crammed into this obviously tiny, beautiful town in Italy throughout the summer season, locals made obviously a lot of money from the mass tourism boom post Covid, which the, you know, that the place really, really needed. But now they're saying it's actually getting incredibly difficult for Capri to function because it's such a small town and it has, you know, such small entrances in and out. When you have cruise ships turning up with all these tourists and at the same time a ship with supplies turns up, it's virtually impossible for anybody to get in or out. So they are looking at how they can potentially regulate to better ensure the management and the flow of tourists, but also looking at rules that have been introduced in other parts of Italy, such as banning selfies in July or as Venice does, trialing, charging day trippers €10 as an access fee into the city.
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Georgina Godwin
Banning selfies. That's interesting. I wonder how you regulate which way your camera's turned.
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Zoe Grunewald
Yes. I don't know. It's a good question. I think it would be quite hard to do in practice, but it might make people think twice, I guess, about lingering.
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Georgina Godwin
Yeah. Aside from the whole tastefulness side of it. Zoe, thank you very much indeed. That's Zoe Gruenwald there, who's Westminster editor at the lead. And this is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Armenia and the United States have completed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement allowing billions of dollars in US Technology exports and opening the door to an American American backed reactor to replace Armenia's aging Soviet era plant. The deal signals a strategic pivot away from Russian dominance in the South Caucasus as Washington pushes new energy and transport corridors that bypass Moscow and Tehran. China is poised to expand its influence in Bangladesh after elections this week, capitalizing on deteriorating relations between Dhaka and New Delhi since the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hassan. Analysts say Beijing is filling a diplomatic and economic vacuum with defence deals and investment, even as Bangladesh remains too geographically and economically tied to India to fully sideline the country. And Australian police forcibly broke up protests in central Sydney against the visit of Israeli President Isaac Herzog using tear gas and pepper spray after crowds pushed against blockades. Officials say officers acted with restraint in a volatile situation situation while protesters and a green lawmaker allege they were trapped and assaulted as police moved to disperse the rally. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. Last week, a delegation of Monocle's editorial staff were in Dubai at the World Government summit under the theme Shaping Future Government. The annual gathering has become one of the most difficult, densely packed fixtures on the diplomatic calendar. At Monocle's cafe and pop up studio, the team spoke to a variety of world leaders, policy makers and entrepreneurial talent. One of the highlights was Estonia's President Ella Karris. Monocle's editorial director and chairman Tyler Brulee sat down with him to discuss his nation's relationship with the uae, geopolitical threats and what Tallinn is bringing to the world stage.
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Tyler Brûlé
Mr. President, wonderful to have you here at the WGS maybe we should start with being in the region. I'm curious, of course, we think of what happens with the Foreign Ministry in Tallinn. Of course, you have a lot of immediate issues in the Baltic, but here we are in the uae. WGS is obviously becoming a more important event, but we think about the relationship between Estonia and this part of the world. Some bridges to be built, some more investment to be had. Why are you here?
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President of Estonia (Alar Karis)
Well, first of all, it's my pleasure to be here. First of all, it's very warm here. It was minus 30 when I left Estonia. But we have. Well, we don't start today. Our relations, we have relations already quite a while and our companies are working here and, and I do hope is going more and more, not only companies and entrepreneurs, but also cultural events. And we expect also people from this region to visit Estonia as well, because it's not only minus 30 and in summer, so it's a nice place as well. So we, our relations are extremely good now and, and we are doing well.
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Tyler Brûlé
When you talk about companies and what various Estonian sectors have to offer, what are the key areas, when you think about obviously from the private sector, what is the offer that Estonia has to give to the likes of the UAE and the broader Gulf, it's probably, as.
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President of Estonia (Alar Karis)
I always have to say, it's IT services. So, and it's not only what do we provide these services to do, UAE and this region, but we also, at the same time we learn from you because we had certain experience already that we assist certain countries, digitalization of governments and so forth. And later on we have to learn from them because they are doing some things much, much better. So this is how we exchange our ideas and this is not the exception. So I look really forward to how this AI is going to develop. It's not only digitalization, but AI as well. So this is, this is summit is about.
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Tyler Brûlé
The summit is also about various geopolitical topics. Topics as well. You are certainly not, not immune to those. We've seen a lot of very interesting companies. When we talk about the tech sector in the defense tech sector coming out of Estonia as well. Are there interesting conversations on the defense side as well in terms of obviously potential clients here, but also knowledge sharing between the UAE and some of the interesting defense startups out of Estonia?
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President of Estonia (Alar Karis)
I mean, absolutely. I mean, defense startups are growing in Estonia and we develop our defense industry and of course again, AI and digitalization is, is a matter of, of using it in, in this particular industry as well. So we are trying to work together also. With people over here. And it's not only, as I said already, it's not starting point, it's just a continuation of our, our relations. And of course, defense is important now and important for Europe. It's important for Estonia. So we are, we are developing it very, very fast.
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Tyler Brûlé
You touched on those rather severe temperatures in Estonia. We come out to this region a lot. I've actually bumped into quite a few Estonians working in service here. It's quite an attractive place. It's maybe nice to have a job for a couple of years working for Etihad and Emirates, for example. When you head back to Estonia, are you hoping to also take a few Estonians with you to attract people to come back? I'm not sure. I don't want to say there's a brain drain, but this is a region which is incredibly hot, not just temperature wise, but in terms of opportunity. So is there sort of also a drive to get talented young Estonians back in the country as well?
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President of Estonia (Alar Karis)
Well, sure. I mean, my policy always has been that we send our people out to get an experience, starting from students and later on also with company people, and then to make sure they come back at some point and we should develop our environment, that it's not a salary question, but they want to come back. And these things happen sometimes, not only during taking pension out of Estonian system, but much, much earlier. So. And it's vice versa. I mean, we also expect your people coming over, study in Estonian universities and stay for a while in Estonia.
- [35:43]
Tyler Brûlé
Just maybe before we go. We talked a lot about temperature now over the last six or seven minutes. But of course we've come off the back of Davos. We've come off the back of a very interesting rallying cry from Prime Minister Carney of Canada and, and maybe a little bit of a. Of a settling down and reset. How's the mood in the Baltic neighborhood? How are you feeling this week?
- [36:06]
President of Estonia (Alar Karis)
Well, we do live in a very turbulent time, that's for sure. And while it's not something we get.
- [36:12]
Tyler Brûlé
Very excited, so Estonians never get that excited.
- [36:15]
President of Estonia (Alar Karis)
Yeah, that's right. Yeah. But we have seen it before. I mean, if you look at our history, I mean, we know at some point there is an enemy who wants to take or grab our land. And seems like, like it's not only, only our neighbor, but also some democratic countries starting the same business. But luckily, I mean, in Europe and the whole world stood up and now we, US and Denmark and Greenland are sitting behind the table and discussing the matter to find a solution. So it's quite calm now. It's not like it was maybe, maybe a couple of weeks ago or a month ago.
- [36:55]
Tyler Brûlé
Let's see what happens by Friday. Resin. Thank you very much.
- [36:58]
President of Estonia (Alar Karis)
Thank you very much.
- [36:59]
Georgina Godwin
The President of Estonia, Ala Kharas, there speaking to Monocle's editorial director and chairman Tyler Brulee at the World Government summit in Dubai. You're with Monocle Radio. Now for a look to the world of travel with Ash Bajwaj, who is the writer and broadcaster for outlets including the BBC, the Times of London, and the author of the book why We Travel. Now, Ash, you've just been listening to that and raving about Estonia.
- [37:32]
Ash Bajwaj
It's one of my favorite countries. I've been there a few times. I've actually been there as an army reserve officer on OP Kabrit, the deterrence against Russian aggression. But as a journalist and a travel journalist, I've explored the country and you don't expect a place that small to have such diversity and such interest, and particularly the region of Setomar down on the southeast border, which is where there was a bit of an incursion by Russian soldiers, actually, on Russian land that you cross to get from one part of Settomar to another. It's just a fascinating place and it's such a rewarding country to visit. Tallinn is gorgeous. The food is excellent in Estonia and comparatively affordable. It's one of my favourite places to visit.
- [38:09]
Georgina Godwin
Well, let's pick up on that word affordable, because apparently luxury hotel prices are soaring and that comes in spite of a luxury slurp down.
- [38:18]
Ash Bajwaj
Absolutely. And I think one of the reasons that's cited in this article from the Financial Times is growing wealth inequality, which is that the people that can afford to spend money on their holidays and their hotels still have that money. And a lot of these places are offering a lot more than you would have normally expected from a hotel in the past. They've got things like hyperbaric pressure chambers, They've got really elaborate forms of massage and lots of very interesting activities. Activities. Luxury travel sits in a couple of different domains, but one of the things that it can do is it gives you access to places that would otherwise be inaccessible. So remote regions of the earth. There's some fantastic luxury places up in the northern parts of Scandinavia, for example. Iceland was a place that really set the standard with that sort of luxury hotel. And I think for the people that can travel, one of the reasons why this sort of. Of accommodation appeals to them is it just makes the whole thing feel a Bit more special and a bit more different and reduces friction.
- [39:19]
Georgina Godwin
Nia, do you think that hoteliers are prioritising higher paying travelers?
- [39:23]
Ash Bajwaj
Well, they know that they can get them. There's competition between the different hotels, obviously, which is why you have all these funny things like the hyperbaric pressure chambers to try and differentiate one from the other. And then of course, you have the legacy places like Le Bristol and Paris, which will always draw visitors. Simply because it's Le Bristol and Paris.
- [39:41]
Georgina Godwin
Sure, sure. Well, if you're heading to the United States, you have to be a bit careful. Well, you have to be a bit careful anyway. But if you had a parking fine back in 1978, that might be an issue, apparently.
- [39:53]
Ash Bajwaj
Yeah. So this is another report from the Financial Times about how particularly the embassy in London is cutting back on visa issuances. So if you're traveling to the US you can usually travel on an esta, which is a visa waiting. It's like a permit to travel. That means you don't have to go through a full visa process. But if you have had any form of criminal record, and this can be an arrest, even without a conviction, you can be denied an esta. And then you have to go through a visa application. So even if you're going as a holiday visitor, you might have to get an H1B or H2B visa. And if you have had any form of criminal engagement or activity in the past, you can be denied it. So the challenge for people when it comes to this, this is it changes your decision making about whether or not you go to the United States. Because why would you book a holiday knowing that you then have to go through this visa application process not being sure if you'll get your visa? So there's an opportunity cost that's being lost to the US and this isn't just happening for holiday makers, this is happening for people going on work visas as well. So there's reports of some executives and CEOs not achieving their visas. So it's having an impact on visitor numbers, but it will start having an impact on who they can employ in the United States as well.
- [41:06]
Georgina Godwin
So if people are planning to go to the US and I'm thinking now here for the World cup, what should they be? What should they do?
- [41:13]
Ash Bajwaj
Well, start early is the first thing to consider. Apply for your ESTA, and then if you can't get your ESTA, then you can start for your H1 or H2B visa application. The other thing to consider is do you need to go to the United States to watch the Football World Cup. It's also being hosted in two other countries, Canada and Mexico. Now, a lot of the big finals and so on aren't being hosted in those two countries. But I think there will be people who will be seeing this as an opportunity to say, well, why take the risk of paying for my tickets and my flight to my hotels in the US When I could see some football in those other two countries?
- [41:48]
Georgina Godwin
So what might the visa authorities be looking for?
- [41:52]
Ash Bajwaj
So some of the things that people have been pulled up for are things that you wouldn't expect. A parking fine, a dui, driving under the influence, use of cannabis back in the 1970s. So these are things we, which, I mean, we have an approach to crime of you've done the crime, you've paid your time, and then it's not cleared, but you have rehabilitated effectively. Yet when it comes to this visa application process, that doesn't seem to be the way it's being looked at by US Authorities. So I think the first thing to do is really reflect on whether or not there might be anything in your past that could pick it up. Even for me, I traveled on a journalism visa to the United States. I had to have an interview and at the US Embassy. And then every time I've got to the US after that, I've also been questioned when I've arrived at my port of arrival in the United States. So having a visa doesn't guarantee entry. The other thing is they're now starting to check your social media records for the past five years. We don't really know what they're checking for, but if it follows the same ideology of their approaches to visas, it's that they simply don't want certain types of people in the US Maybe people who talk down the United States is the term that has been used. Used. But that does seem to correlate with. Have you talked down the current administration in the United States?
- [43:03]
Georgina Godwin
I mean, it's easy enough just to remove your social media from your phone or to refuse to give it to people, isn't it?
- [43:08]
Ash Bajwaj
So they can force you to not sharing it with them might be seen as an indication you have something to hide, number one. But also, if you just delete all your social media accounts and you have five years of empty social media accounts, that can be flagged up as something suspicious too.
- [43:23]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. So what happens if you've traveled to certain countries? Countries. I mean, that can be an issue too, can't it?
- [43:29]
Ash Bajwaj
Yeah. And there's, there's 71 countries that are currently not being issued visas, and that includes Thailand, places you wouldn't expect. But also if you have traveled to certain countries, Iraq, Sudan, Syria, Iran, that can reduce your chances of being given entry to the United States. The they do have a process in place. So just because you visited one of those countries, just because you have had some kind of criminal caution in the past, doesn't guarantee that you won't be given entry. But start early, go through the application process and the embassies in whichever nation you're in are the one that will conduct the first interview.
- [44:02]
Georgina Godwin
And will protests and ice this clampdown by the immigration officials on streets, snatching people from the streets and so on. Will that affect visitors, particularly the large crowds that expected for the World Cup.
- [44:14]
Ash Bajwaj
So the way we make our decisions about travel is from a lot of different factors. One might be affordability. And whilst the US Dollar is down and therefore might seem initially more affordable, the United States is not a cheap place anyway, particularly those major destinations, Disneyland. But the other thing that really matters is sentiment. How do you feel about a country? Tourism is an export product and it brings revenue into a country. But unlike many other products, you can have a vast array of choices because you can literally go anywhere in the world as a tourist. And the way the United States has treated its allies, whether that's its talks about annexing Greenland, its tariffs or its domestic policies, means that the sentiment has shifted and people are just thinking, do I need to go to the United States or could I just go on holiday somewhere else?
- [45:00]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah, well, looking to the beginning of this conversation, I guess the conclusion is go to Estonia.
- [45:05]
Ash Bajwaj
Europe is a brilliant place to travel. Going overland through Europe is phenomenal. And those Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, they are so rewarding to travel. There's so much history, amazing art, architecture, brilliant food, as I mentioned. And the history is fascinating too.
- [45:19]
Georgina Godwin
Ash, thank you very much indeed. That's Ash Bajwaj, who is a writer and a broadcaster for outlets including the BBC, the Times of London, and he's the author of why We Travel. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio.
- [45:37]
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- [46:09]
Tara Kangalu
Foreign.
- [46:15]
Georgina Godwin
45 in Basel. 745 here in London. And a look now to the News in the world of arts and culture. And to do so, I'm joined by Gabe Bullard, who's a journalist based in Basel for outlets including the Washington Post, Nieman Reports, and New York Times Magazine. Gabe, lovely to have you on the show. I understand it's carnival season there. How do you pronounce that fashion?
- [46:39]
Gabe Bullard
Yes, you may hear a few drums and fifes behind me. They've been practicing for the last couple weeks, getting ready for the big parades coming up in the near future.
- [46:48]
Georgina Godwin
And what do we expect?
- [46:50]
Gabe Bullard
You know, I think the usual. The large parades. There's the. They call it the Morga strike in Basel. At 4am on the first Monday, the lights go out, the bands start playing, and from then on, it's three days of celebration.
- [47:05]
Georgina Godwin
Sounds fantastic. Now, of course, there's been this terrible tragedy in Kranz, Montana. Has that affected the way that hospitality is operating there?
- [47:15]
Gabe Bullard
Yes. So across the board in these towns, Basel having, you know, one of the more significant fasnaks. But a lot of towns have their celebrations. There has been a new focus on fire safety, especially in what they call the Faznok Kellers, which are these basements where people gather. They have a good time, they can get pretty crowded. So to prevent any sort of tragedy, but then also to just to remind people of general safety, there has been this new emphasis and on. On what fire safety measures are in place, emergency exits, capacity limits, making sure that the decor is appropriate, all of that. So there has been this sort of new check, both to ensure that safety is there and to reassure people who are visiting that they're going to be in a safe place with emergency exits should the worst happen.
- [48:01]
Zoe Grunewald
Tell me, what is.
- [48:01]
Georgina Godwin
What is the carnival celebrating? What's the reason for carnival?
- [48:06]
Gabe Bullard
The Lenten season from the church is where it all sort of came from. Although, you know, there's not necessarily a lot of religious imagery going around. It's sort of, you know, like carnival in other countries. Basel has theirs after the Lenten season begins, technically. So it's just a lot of fun, a lot of colors, a lot of confetti going around. We'll be cleaning up confetti for the next few months here.
- [48:28]
Georgina Godwin
Now tell us about the Erce collection.
- [48:31]
Tom Grundy
Yes.
- [48:31]
Gabe Bullard
So this was a collection of largely Americana, though some international objects collected by the former owner of the Indianapolis Colts, or I should say the late owner of the Indianapolis Colts, the American football team. It includes, probably the highlight is a number of famous guitars from musicians in the 20th century, Kurt Cobain, David Gilmore from Pink Floyd. All of these have been sort of purchased by Irsay over the years. He died last year. And the family has decided to put these items up for auction. They're going up for auction this spring, and before that, they will be on display for one last time. They had previously been sort of part of a traveling museum that had gone across the US Showing them to people.
- [49:15]
Georgina Godwin
Is there much of a market for rock memorabilia?
- [49:18]
Gabe Bullard
Yes, there is. You know, it is something that has picked up as baby boomers who grew up with the music have been able to flex a little bit more of their income in collecting and also some generous Xers. You see that the members of Generation X, who have the money to spend, are going for some of the artifacts of their time that they're most interested in. I'm going to be watching to see who. Who ends up going for Kurt Cobain's guitar, for instance, from the Smells Like Teen Spirit video.
- [49:46]
Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. All right, well, let's finish by talking about AI because there's this. There's this phrase, AI slop. What does that mean?
- [49:54]
Gabe Bullard
So that is. Is a work generated by AI, usually visuals. It could apply to text, it could apply to music as well. Just something produced by the machine that isn't really worthwhile. You know, it might in some way be technically impressive. Certainly the technology behind it is pretty advanced. But the end result is just something that people don't really care to see. It's not as good as what a human might do. Or maybe it's something that somebody who's just kind of phoning it in might produce.
- [50:20]
Georgina Godwin
Right. So there is a backlash, though.
- [50:23]
Gabe Bullard
Yes, indeed. So you may have seen in the Olympics opening ceremony, there was that brief animation done with artificial intelligence that. That people have been pushing back on saying, why not have a human animator to do this? The Olympics are celebrating human achievement. They're people who can make something a lot better. But across the board, just seeing these things pop up on social media more and more, as some of these platforms have really invested in thinking that people will be entertained by these short, automatically generated videos, people are pushing back on it and they're seeing, saying, it's really not that good. It's not where it needs to be, and I don't want to see it. I'm on these platforms to connect with people now. Maybe the generation will get a little bit better, the generative AI and it might look better, it might be a little more seamless. It certainly has advanced to the point where some people have trouble telling it apart. But I think what's happening now is a lot of people are just saying they're not interested at the quality level now and they may never be interested in the future. They're just building the skepticism that they'll always have.
- [51:23]
Georgina Godwin
I mean, are there some parallels here? Apple's Siri at the start?
- [51:28]
Gabe Bullard
Yes, I think so. I think, you know, when Siri launched, it could do a few interesting things, but it was also pretty buggy. A lot of people made jokes about Siri misunderstanding, giving directions to the wrong places, transcribing messages wrong. And it seems like no matter how much Apple improves the technology, the people who were burned by that first bad experience still think of it as more of a punchline than as a personal assistant. So it may never fully catch on. Among that first group of people who were. Who were upset by it, they are skeptical about trying it. And I could see AI doing the same sort of thing where people see slop early on and they think, well, that's all it is and that's all it's ever going to be.
- [52:04]
Georgina Godwin
So, Gaba, how do you then view the relationship between tech and art?
- [52:10]
Gabe Bullard
I think that there could perhaps be some interesting work done over time. But I think when you see something that is fully AI generated, even thinking about the Olympics, I'm not that interested in watching something or listening to something that's fully made by AI the same way that I wouldn't be interested in watching a sporting event that was completely generated by AI. You know, I like the human element. I like the level of human surprise. And I think that what we're seeing is people starting to push back on that and think, you know, we need to really think about what the limits are for this technology and how we want to use it. How can it help us be creative? How can it unlock something?
- [52:46]
Georgina Godwin
Gabe, thank you very much indeed. That's Gabe Bullard, a journalist based in Basel. Happy Happy Carnival or Fachnacht to you. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Well, we've just been talking about the Olympics and how it will never be an AI total event. So let's join it. Very much in reality, we're heading over to the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics to talk to Ed Stocker. He's heading Monacle's Europe Editor at large, who's in the city for the games. Hello to you, Ed.
- [53:25]
Ed Stocker
Hello. Very good morning to you and to you.
- [53:27]
Georgina Godwin
Now, I understand that you were at the women's ice hockey yesterday. Tell us more.
- [53:32]
Ed Stocker
I was indeed. I thought it would be, you know, Remiss not to get on down to a game and be part of this Olympics. So headed down to see, as you say, the women's ice hockey at the Roe Ice Arena. So it was kind of of interesting. You know, this is a trade hall that's normally, you know, host things like Salon del Mobile. And to see it sort of transformed into this ice arena was pretty amazing. You know, France very much the underdogs, Germany were on top. I think we may even have some audio. You know, Germany led for much of the game and then towards the end of it, suddenly France scored an equalizer. I think we have some audio of that moment.
- [54:12]
Gabe Bullard
Team France, goal Scored by number 12.
- [54:15]
Georgina Godwin
Estelle Duke, assistant 22.
- [54:21]
Gabe Bullard
Time 48 minutes, 21 seconds.
- [54:25]
Georgina Godwin
Jubilation.
- [54:26]
Ed Stocker
Yeah, well, it didn't last that long, to be honest with you, Georgina, because after that moment, after the equalizer, it went to a sudden death in which Germany scored, which means that France hasn't won a game. They've lost, you know, to Italy, Japan, Sweden and now Germany. They're out of the competition, but, you know, they showed some fighting form, even though Germany had many, many more shots on gold than them, about over twice as many. You know, the good news is that this is a learning curve for France. It was their first Winter Olympics in ice hockey. And they're also guaranteed, despite all of this, they're guaranteed to be in the next Winter Games because they're taking place in Nice and the French Alps in 2030.
- [55:11]
Georgina Godwin
And now, tell me, a lot of the Games had to be, or some of the games had to be cancelled because of norovirus. Is that over now?
- [55:19]
Ed Stocker
Well, I mean, we haven't heard any more headlines about it today. Obviously, it's always a risk, isn't it? Like we were saying on the radio before, the fact that you have athletes in close quarters, so any contagious infection like norovirus can spread quite easily, but hopefully that that's out of the way now and we can focus on what's been a great competition with just so much going on already.
- [55:42]
Georgina Godwin
There is a political element to it too, of course. There are reports today of a Ukrainian whose helmet has been banned because it shows pictures of his fallen comrades.
- [55:53]
Ed Stocker
Yeah, this is Vladislav Herskevich. He is Ukraine's first ever skeleton competitor. Now, the ioc, as of this morning, hadn't confirmed this, but he's been talking to the press and saying this is the case. Basically, he's been wearing this helmet which shows athletes, Ukrainian athletes who have died, who've been killed in the ongoing war. You know, the ioc, the International Olympics Committee, has very strict rules about sort of politics, politics entering the competition. There's a rule called 50.2 which says there can be no kind of demonstration or political, religious or racial propaganda. This is an athlete who also held up a sign in Beijing 2022 in the winter Games there saying no war in Ukraine. You know, I guess what's interesting about this, if this really is a ban and he's not allowed to wear the helmet, it. He's already achieved, I think in many ways what he was setting out to do because it's had all this media attention. We're talking about it now. So he's still raising the profile of all these young athletes whose lives were cut short and of course raising awareness about the ongoing war in Ukraine. So in one, in many ways, I'm sure he believes he's kind of achieved his goal in that sense.
- [57:16]
Georgina Godwin
Now, Ed, I know it's a busy time for you and for the Monocle team on the ground there. What's on your agenda today?
- [57:22]
Ed Stocker
Yeah, we've got. It's day two in our Live from Milan radio broadcast. Indeed, we've got Marco Sammichelli, he's the director of the Museum of Italian Design at the Triennale. The cultural, you know, programming that goes alongside the Olympics is super important. We have Martina Mondadori, she is the founder and editor to chief of the renowned Cabana magazine. That is course, that of course is based here in Milan. We've got Stella Noverino, she's the Italian fashion designer who made waves designing the Haitian costume. She's half Haitian. We've also got Joe, former architect's co founder Florian Borgia. He is, you know, his firm is behind the set being built that's being built for the closing ceremony, ceremony of these Winter Olympics that will take place in Verona and others. So it's going to be another really exciting packed day. We'll also be checking in again with our roving reporter in the Italian Alps to find out some of the sporting action that's taking place today. So it's going to be, yeah, another busy day here live from Milan on the 47th floor of Allianz Tower.
- [58:34]
Georgina Godwin
Very exciting. So just to confirm, you are. It's. It's 9am London time.
- [58:39]
Ed Stocker
It's 9am London time, 10am Central European time. Exactly.
- [58:43]
Georgina Godwin
Georgina, thank you very much. That's Ed Stocker, who's Monocle's editor at large in Milan and as we say, do tune in at 9 London time, 10 in Europe to hear our coverage of the Winter Olympics. But of course, you can always download that whenever convenient for you. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Anita Riota, Monica Lillis and Ryuma Takahashi, our researcher, Anneliese Maynard, and our studio manager, Lily Austin, with editing assistance from Sam Impey. After the headlines, there's more music on the way and we'll hear more from the team. As I say, in Milan at 9 London time, the briefing is live at midday and the Globalist will be back at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thanks for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global.
- [59:38]
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