E (4:33)

Thank you, Georgina. Yes, well, Turkey is being pulled into this war in Iran whether it likes it or not, and that's due to its position, of course. It's a neighbor of Iran, sits just over its eastern border, and it also has a complicated relationship with Iran, even in the best of times. Both countries have Kurdish minorities which often threaten secessionism, so they're joined on that. But they're rival Sunni and Shia powers in a really, really complicated region and have been on the opposite sides of several conflicts over the past decade. And Turkey, of course, is also a NATO ally, and that's the reason why two Iranian missiles were fired at Turkey. It wasn't so much to do with bilateral relations between the two countries, but more to do with this base in Injerlich near the city of Adana on the Mediterranean coast, where there's not only a NATO base but also a US Nuclear warheads store. So a very, very clear target, even though that base hasn't been used so far in this war against Iran. And Turkey politically and diplomatically, has stayed very much in the center, criticizing Donald Trump's operations and Israel's operations, but not too forcefully, not as falsely as we've seen them criticizing Israel's operations in Palestine, for example.

A (5:46)

And what has Turkey said to Tehran? What's the Warning?

E (5:50)

Well, Turkey has warned Iran, you know, not to, not to keep attacking its soil. You know, Turkey is also a major power with leverage inside Iran as well. There's a large Azerai minority in the northeastern part of Iran. That's the part that borders Azerbaijan and Turkey. And they're kind of natural allies, both for Ankara and for Baku as well. Should Donald Trump back Kurdish forces in Iran, something that Turkey would not be happy with at all? I think that's the most likely thing that's going to unfold.

A (6:22)

Let's just unpack that Turkish question, because Trump did initially seem keen on involving Kurdish forces. They said that they were ready to fight. He now appears to have cooled. Do you think that's actually banker's influence?

E (6:33)

It could be. It's certainly a point of leverage. And it's interesting that Donald Trump and President Erdogan have had a really good relationship since Trump came back, came back into the White Office nearly a year ago, just over a year ago. But, you know, this is the first time that that relationship is really being put under strain. And Erdogan's in a really, really difficult position. He's managed to kind of find his way through a middle way in major conflicts over the past few years, particularly in Russia and Ukraine, and, you know, offered himself as a mediat several conflicts. But he's in a bit of a stickier position here.

A (7:07)

Tell us about the deployment of these F16s.

E (7:11)

Well, Cyprus, of course, is another area in which Turkey has massive interest. There's a Turkish speaking population in the north of the island, around 40,000 Turkish troops based permanently there since the war in 1974. And Cyprus as well has been a target of Iranian missiles this week for the same reason, because of a NATO base, in this case a British base based in Akrotiri in the south of Cyprus. Two drones have been intercepted so far this week. And locals there, particularly in the south, particularly in the Greek speaking part of Cyprus, have been raising very, very unhappy concerns about, you know, the continuing presence of the British there. Now that's a perfect opportunity for Erdogan to also start playing a hand in Cyprus. It's an arena that he's got quite a lot of leverage over as well. He's used it very effectively for the domestic ends. It's very good for kind of stirring up jingoism and nationalism back in the Turkish mainland, as so it's certainly an opportunity for him to kind of wield Turkish power in that island as well.

A (8:11)

Now, Turkey as a NATO member could theoretically call upon the mutual Defence treaty. How likely is that?

E (8:19)

I mean, I think it's interesting but not unexpected that it hasn't and that it's come out very quickly to say it hasn't. You know, drawing NATO into this war would, you know, be a major, major thing. And we've seen in other cases over the past few years, particularly in Poland and the Baltic states, there have been incidents like this, ones of, you know, projectiles missiles landing in NATO territory. And it's been decided not to kind of escalate it for obvious reasons. I think, you know, exactly the same dynamics are in play here. But also, you know, Erdogan wants to make Turkey a bit of a more standalone country. He never wants to rely on NATO too much. And, you know, interestingly, although it was NATO defense systems that shot down these missiles that were coming to Turkey, Erdogan over the past few years has also purchased a Russian missile defense system. It's never been used, but that was something that drew a huge wedge between him and the other NATO countries.

A (9:13)

Do you think then that Turkey, without NATO could become involved in this fight unilaterally?

E (9:18)

I mean, I think it is involved unilaterally, whether it likes it or not. Let's not forget NATO member policies have a defence alliance, but they're not all politically aligned at all. And Turkey's always pursued a very independent policy on Tehran. But I think, you know, much will depend on whether Trump does decide to back Kurdish forces in Tehran. And what happens as a result of that.

A (9:42)

What about refugees? Because, of course, Turkey has a shared border with Iran and there have been various rumors that the border might be closed.

E (9:50)

Yeah, so, I mean, that border between Turkey and Iran is a very long border, but it's already been sort of securitized and militarized over the past few years. Turkey's built a huge militarized wall along that border because there were already refugees coming in from Afghanistan and from Iran as well. So it is already, you know, quite difficult for people coming in on illegal routes to get over that border. But Iranians in normal times do enjoy visa free travel within Turkey a lot. Come over to go shopping, to go, to do tourism. And although at the very start of the conflict, it did seem that the border was closed for a few hours, it reopened quite quickly. So far, there's been quite a slow stream of refugees coming through. It's, you know, the border's quite a way away from Tehran and most of the major cities. But of course, if the conflict does escalate and if, you know, Kurdish forces, other forces are drawn into Iran itself. I think that will change very quickly.

A (10:48)

I mean, initially, wasn't Ankara offering to negotiate between Iran, Israel and the us?

E (10:54)

Yeah, I think that would have been Erdogan's ideal position, because being a mediator offers him a diplomatic hand. It offers him a position of strength within the Western alliances that he's part of. But I. I do think that option is narrowing for him. The more that we get incidents such as, you know, missiles coming towards Turkish territory and indeed, you know, being shot down over Turkish territory.

A (11:20)

Just finally, Hannah, what should we be watching for in the next few days?

E (11:24)

I think certainly any indications from Trump over whether or not he is going to back those Kurdish forces in Iran. What I hear from my sources is that those Kurdish forces have been been prepared for quite a while now. I'm not sure how long, but, you know, is whether or not he gives the orders and, you know, possibly American special forces also cross into Iran. And, yeah, I think. I think that's the major thing to watch for.

A (11:50)

Hannah, thank you very much indeed. That's Hannah Lucinda Smith in Istanbul and her book Hinterland's Journeys Around Europe's Unfinished Frontiers is out in June. This is the Globalist. It's 1611 in Tokyo, 711 here in London. Now, Japan relies on the Middle east for more than 90% of its crude oil, much of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict involving Iran escalates, concerns are growing about energy supplies and the impact on Japan's economy. At the same time, Tokyo faces a delicate balance as a close US ally that's also traditionally maintained friendly relations with Iran. So what does this situation mean for Japan? To discuss this, I'm joined by Monocle's Tokyo bureau chief and Senior Asia editor, Fiona Wilson. Good morning to you, Fiona.

F (12:50)

Hi, Georgina.

A (12:51)

How is this war already affecting Japan? I mean, for instance, let's just start by looking at the market reactions.

F (13:00)

Yeah, I mean, I think you summarised it brilliantly at the beginning there. You know, Japan finds itself in a very tricky situation. And, yeah, you know, this is resource energy poor. Japan depends on the Gulf for its crude oil. So there's just. And, you know, lng as well. So really, really important for Japan's economy. It's going to affect the car industry, as you said. There was an absolute drop, third biggest drop in history, the Nikkei yesterday, great panic when it looked like, you know, the price of crude oil went up. It looked like supplies were going to be restricted and there was just so much uncertainty yesterday. Now there are A couple of factors that helped it to rally. So this morning there was a bit of a rebound. So although it wasn't quite, you know, it was bad on Monday, 5.2% down up 3.7% first thing this morning. So, you know, it is a really volatile time. I think Trump, President Trump saying that the war will be quick. Now, whether that turns out to be true or not remains to be seen. But that helped. And the other thing is that the G7 minister said, and they are looking to release reserves of oil, which is very reassuring for Japan, you know, and Japan itself obviously has its own stockpile. But, you know, I think they said about 250 days of stockpiles between the sort of public and private stockpiling of oil. So, yeah, there's a lot for Japan to worry about.

A (14:23)

And I mean, how serious is the risk if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted?

F (14:29)

Well, I mean, it is a risk, you know, long term. Obviously, you know, the price of oil will go up. That affects Japanese industry massively because it depends on oil from that region. So it's very important. There are 40 vessels sort of sitting in the Persian Gulf right now just waiting. Because, you know, I think if you can imagine, you know, look at Toyota, they've already said they're going to stop production of 20,000 vehicles that would be going to that region. And just the knock on effect, they're very worried about energy prices for consumers. So Prime Minister Takaichi has already said they're looking at how they're going to mitigate that. It may come in the form of some kind of subsidy for households. But, you know, Japanese households were already under pressure for economic reasons. Stagnant wage rises. You know, there are a lot of things that people are worried about. Cost of living increase. This will only add to the pain. So I think the Prime Minister has tried to get in quickly to say that they will try to ease that pain.

A (15:26)

And how is Tokyo managing that diplomatic balance?

F (15:31)

I mean, it's a difficult one for Japan because obviously the US Is the biggest ally for, you know, Japan is the U.S. s biggest ally in this region. It's a really, really important relationship. Certainly been a bit rocky with President Trump. And I think Prime Minister Take really managed to get that back on track. She tried very hard when he came to visit. Now she herself has a meeting with Trump on the 19th of March, so. So it's quite difficult for her. She's been quite careful to sort of sit on the fence, really. She's not heavily criticizing Iran, but she's also not massively supporting the strikes from the US And Israel. And I think that's the balance that she has to keep, really. She can't afford to upset either side.

A (16:14)

And looking ahead, if this conflict continues, what could be the biggest impact on Japan?

F (16:20)

Yeah, I think it will be this business of price rises will be absolutely huge and how it affects Japanese industry because it does depend on, you know, and it's not, you know, crude oil is needed for all sorts of things, including, you know, one of the key components of things like plastics, you know, other things that Japan makes depend on crude oil. And if you think that 90%, more than 90% of that is coming from the Gulf, you can imagine that it will really filter through. And I think these price rises will start to be felt.

A (16:48)

Fiona, thank you. That's Monocle's Tokyo bureau chief, Fiona Wilson. Now. Still to come on the program, we

C (16:55)

are strengthening ourselves as a nation. The more we do at home and the more we show up abroad, the more that will be understood.

A (17:02)

Brand Canada chat from the men that know the prime minister and his compatriot, our own Tyler Brulee. This is the globalist. Well, let's continue now with today's newspapers. And joining me from our Paris studio is Alexandra Kushner, French journalist, political analyst and former editor of La Die Nelle Shift. Alexandra, many thanks for joining us from our lovely studio there in Rue Bechemont. Can we start with the story that, of course, everybody is reporting? And this is on Trump's speech that he gave yesterday in Florida. What he said how Iran, Iran reacted and also how the markets reacted.

G (17:49)

Good morning. Well, during a press conference yesterday, President Trump told CBS News that the war is, I quote, very complete, pretty much end quote, before going back on his declaration, saying the US had not gained enough and warned Tehran of death, fire and fury if it disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is already the case. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said on Tuesday they would not allow 1 liter of oil to be shipped from the Middle east if US And Israeli attacks continue. And this heightened rhetoric did little to quell a sharp retreat in crude prices and a rally in global shares after Trump expressed confidence in a swift and to hostilities. The death toll from Israeli attacks in Lebanon since March 2 has risen to roughly 500, Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health sent on Monday. And mass displacement across Lebanon has forced already 700,000 people from their homes, said the UNICEF regional director. So, you know, to put it very bluntly, it's not like this war is getting much clearer.

A (18:53)

So tell me, how is France involved? There are a number of ways. For instance, Macron is in Cyprus.

G (18:59)

Yes, France is sending a large naval force to the Middle East. As the New York Times is reporting, it's a show of force in the Eastern Mediterranean. President Macron traveled to Cyprus yesterday. The visit comes as France is mounting what he called an unprecedented mobilization of its navy. Eight frigates, two helicopter carriers, and the Charles de Gaulle, France's aircraft carrier, will be deployed in the Mediterranean Sea. France also sent a frigate and air defense systems to Cyprus after the island was targeted early in the war by Iranian drones and missiles. Macron explained that this naval presence is really not an offensive mission. He said it's an escort and support mission. He says that basically he's been working to organize an international escort force to ensure that ships can safely navigate the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for about one fifth of the world's oil supplies. The French President has been walking a delicate line since the beginning of the war, calling the US And Israeli strikes illegal, while maintaining that Iran bears primary responsibility for triggering the conflict. And on Monday, he said that he believes the intense phase of the war would continue for several more days, maybe several more weeks, I quote. But just hours later, as we discussed, President Trump said the very opposite. So, you know, besides Trump's usual incoherence aside, the reality is that despite this naval maneuvers, France and Europe does not seem to carry any weight in the conflict. They were not consulted, cannot seem to alter the course of the war, especially with France unable to halt Israel's campaign in Lebanon. So this, this show of force actually begs the question, what does it take to be relevant these days?

A (20:39)

And, I mean, this whole thing is really blowing up here in Britain in that it's causing a political crisis for our Prime Minister here, Keir Starmer. I wonder how it's affecting Macron in France. Is there a lot of division around whether or not they should be supporting the war?

G (20:55)

Well, the division is on his stance. You know, people on the left say he should have been, you know, tougher on Trump saying this is an illegal action, while the right is basically saying, well, you know, if you can get rid of Iran's Mola, then that's not such a bad thing. The reality is that international politics are probably the only way for Macron to stay relevant anymore. His presidency ends in a year. There are mayoral elections in just this weekend in which his party is all but pretty much non visible. So he's actually using that to his full extent. Whether or not that will play internally is yet to be determined. And that will be determined on some Sunday.

A (21:37)

Now, let's talk about equality. This is a piece in the Guardian.

G (21:41)

Yes, and it's not a great piece to read. On Sunday, the Guardian wrote about a global study that shows that march to gender equality is not exactly going in faster. In fact, it could be going backwards. Over 23,000 people in 29 countries, including Great Britain, the U.S. brazil, Australia and India took part in an annual survey of over 16s conducted by Ipsos and the global Institute for Women Leadership at King's College London. The results revealed a stark difference in the beliefs of different generations of men when it comes to gender roles. And I hope you're seething as I read this. 24% of Gen Z males, these are born between 1997 and 2012 think women should not appear too independent or self sufficient. According to the study, Gen Z males are twice as likely as baby boomer men. They are born between 1946 and 1964 to have traditional views on decision making within American marriage, with just 13% of men in the older cohort agreeing that a wife should always obey her husband. Amongst women, 18% of Gen Z and 6% of baby boomers agreed. And that's another striking result. It's the attitude of young women and how it's changing. When asked if men who take part in caregiving for children were less masculine than those who do not, 14% of Gen Z females agreed with that statement, compared with just 8% of baby boomer men. The good news is that across all 29 countries surveyed, 55% think young women in their country today will have a better life than women in their parents generation. However, optimism about the future of young men has fallen by 5 percentage points since last year. It's down to 40%. You know, if we could just ask. Pretty much maybe the kids are not all right.

A (23:30)

Exactly. I mean, Julia Gillard, so of course she's the former Australian Prime Minister, but she's now the chair of the Global Institute for Women's Leadership. She obviously said the results were troubling. She said not only are many Gen Z men putting limiting expectations on women, they're also trapping themselves within restrictive gender norms. And I think that's a very interesting take on it.

G (23:52)

Yes. And it's true that what we're seeing is sort of a comeback to very traditional views, as if, you know, progress could only empower one people at a time. And of course what studies have shown is that if you progress towards equality Then everybody gets to gain.

A (24:10)

So I just want to flag up an interview I did on Meet the Writers this week. I spoke to a former model. Her name is Karen Dubray, and she is not a football fan at all. But through various reasons, she got involved in her local football club, Lewis, which is in. On the coast in the south coast of England. And she has helped transform this into the world's first equal pay football club. Can you believe that men and women, women, I mean, still are not paid equally?

G (24:38)

Well, not only I can sadly believe it, but we do have statistics that even in France, which has passed laws to, you know, promote gender equality, the statistics are pretty clear. At the equal amount of pay and the equal amount of work, the difference in pay can go up to 21%. In certain sectors, there still is a long wait.

F (25:01)

Wow.

A (25:01)

That's because of one different chromosome. It's extraordinary. Anyway, if you want to listen to the. To the Karen Debray interview or indeed read the book, which is brilliantly named Bitch Invasion, it's on Meet the Writers, which you can get wherever you get your podcast. Now, truffles. I have to tell you, before we start talking about truffles, Alex, I really don't like them.

G (25:22)

Well, then I have sad news for you.

A (25:26)

Everything's gonna taste of truffles.

G (25:27)

Yeah, everything tastes like truffles nowadays, you know, the war rages on and misogyny is on the rise, but at least everything can now taste like truffles. France's leading newspaper, Le Mans, had a following column this morning asking if truffles are the new smoked salmon. Once rare and prized, soon copied, disseminated, and now almost mundane, the truffle mushroom is now everywhere, including in discount products. The Howard discount chain Lidl now sells a stuffed brie with truffle flavor, while Monoprix supermarkets offer truffle aroma, mayonnaise and. And of course, none of these products have actual truffle in them, but they create some sort of a premium version of any product. And as shoppers worldwide are increasingly concerned about affordability, truffle tastes. You know, it tastes like the illusion of richness at little cost. The article quotes someone saying, even in a Ryanair flight, if you order truffle flavored crisps, you can imagine yourself in business class. Or, as you know, Guillemot, for the journalist puts it, we'll never become homeowners and we can't afford the new cars. We can still treat ourselves with a truffled pizza. But should the trend continue, she worries we might soon see some truffled aroma shampoo as it happened with avocado that you would hate that probably. And then, you know, what will the food industry bring as a new frontier of luxury? The author's guess is that you could soon hear about caviar flavored crisps or saffron burgers. What a time to be alive.

A (26:57)

Now those I would eat. Alexander, thank you very much indeed. That's Alexandra Kushner there speaking from our Paris studio. You're with the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights. Delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Global oil prices fell in early Asian trading after surging to nearly $120 a bar on Monday. The drop came as Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end pretty quickly, but warned Tehran of death, fire and fury if it interferes with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea says it cannot stop US Forces from redeploying some weapons from bases on the peninsula after reports that Patriot missile defense systems were sent to support operations linked to the Middle east conflict. Conflict President Lee Jae Myung said Seoul has raised concerns but doesn't have the authority to block US Military decisions. And explosive drone strikes by Haitian security forces targeting gangs have killed more than 1,200 people in the past year, according to Human Rights Watch. The group says the operations involve support from a private US Security firm linked to Blackwater founder Erik Prince and warns civilians, including China, children have been among the victims. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. Now on yesterday's show, we aired part of our exclusive interview with Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, recorded at the Canadian Embassy in Tokyo. Mr. Carney spoke with Monocle's editorial director and chairman Tyler Brulee about his Davos address, the role of defence and the military in Canada, and the need for middle powers to to work more closely together. Well, here in this next part of the discussion they talk about strengthening Ottawa's presence abroad and brand Canada.

C (30:01)

You have to establish these connections at multiple levels and then what you have to do if you're me is to as you come back from a trip like this is have very clear deliverables and timetables to do that and follow up and ask and agree and gradually that builds its approach down. And in the example of India, Prime Minister Modi and I have set the deadline of the end of this year to complete the trade agreement, the SIPA between the two of us, so called sipa. And that has a lot in it related and so you create that natural aspect. Tyler, one final point which near and dear to your heart I think which is it's hard to overstate the importance of the people to people culturally ties and really getting that going. And, and so for Canada, and Canada showing up, it's ensuring that we show up at a, a more frequent, higher level, if I can put it that way in terms of people to people, cultural, cultural aspects so that Canada is very present in these countries. And what about, I mean you like nice things, I believe. What about the importance of presence people? Yes, well, no, but also just it's obviously sort of short but also sticking around the importance of proper emphasis. Embassies having sort of proper representation because a lot of people said Canada for a while became sort of Canada by Marriott. Let's be the ambassador. No, let's meet the ambassador at the hotel. Because the embassy is not so great. Well, I remember I, I will give you an example because it was a great example. There was a good sell off. I will give you an example from this, from this embassy. So I was visiting here, I was a central bank governor. I was visiting here. Must have been in 2010, 11, something like that. It was a G7 or G20 in Tokyo and the Emperor and the Empress were going to come to Canada. They had been, he had been to Canada when he was 19 and prior to their visit they were coming to visit the ambassador. The ambassador's hospitality budget had run out in the first three months. Now the ambassador at the time, they were not flamboyant people. The fact is the hospitality budget was so small but he was going to host the emperor. And this, you know, the Emperor of Japan does not frequently, very, very rarely would show up at an embassy. And so you know, I was helping them pool like from our own funds so they could buy some tea. And I mean this is the false economy making sure that, you know, we're showing up, we're showing up Canadian. So there's a reset on that. I think, I think it's, I think it's coming. There's more to do. You have to be prudent. It's taxpayers of money. But you also have to be effective. Let me give example from the last 24 hours last night it was the eve of Prime Minister Takeichi's birthday and with the embassy, we arranged for a Canadian cake which had elements of Canada. Yes, it had some maple, but it had Canadian strawberries, heather. It was a sort of unique concoction and it had a beautiful sakura with a maple leaf in the middle of it. Decoration. I thought it was beautiful. I like nice things, I guess. There you go. And. And we, to her surprise, presented this cake and you know, these things matter. It matters. You remember somebody's birthday. It matters that the connection has something to do with both countries. It's a little example, but you know, this, this is. It's an element of diplomacy, but I put it deeper than that. It's friendship, right? It's a connection. From a Canada brand perspective, what would you like to reset? I mean, of course we're talking about sort of high level things, but maybe. And not just on nice things. But what would you like to fix? What needs fixing? Canada Strong, that's our brand. We are a strong, confident, ambitious country. We're taking control of our destiny. We do some met CES nois and we're known not just for the strength of our values, but the value of our strength and that understanding that we, as I say, are in control of our destiny. We have big ambitions, we're building, we'll build with partners and you know, the other elements of the Canadian character, that we're generous people, we care about the vulnerable, we support them and that we're reliable in a world that's anything but. And you know, I'm reminded when I was appointed Governor of, or proposed as Governor of the bank of England, David Cameron told me that when he went to see the Queen to inform her that one of her subjects, albeit from a different country, was going to be Governor of the bank of England, she said, oh good, a Canadian, they're very reliable. So it had nothing to do with me, but it was the reputation of the country. So we're reliable, but we're strong, we're ambitious, we're confident, we're moving. In your travels, does every capital get that though? Do you think there's a universal understanding? No. Short answer? No. And also in part because we are strengthening ourselves as a nation. And the more we do and the more we show up, the more we do at home and the more we show up abroad, the more that will be understood. So on Canada Strong, I'm curious, we're in this time of specific interests. Everybody has their own week, their own month, because they Represent a community. Does Canada need to come together as a nation more? Oh, the nation is very much here, united. We're united not because of blood or soil or specific ethnicity or religion or other. In fact, it's very much the contrary. We're a country that recognizes differences, celebrates those differences, has a loud, diverse public square. We have unity. We don't seek unity in uniformity. It's actually in that diversity. And that is a fundamental strength of Canada. It's one that has built over time. You think of our history. You know, originally it was two cultures ignoring the indigenous culture that was there. And gradually, over time, that structure became more formal, then became multiculturalism. Now we're really in this process of reconciliation, but it's with a common set of values, responsibilities to each other alongside the rights of individuals. So I think our civic nationalism, because that, that's what it is, is very, very strong. It's. I don't want to say it's unique because others move in that direction, but it's relatively rare in this world and does make the country what it is.

A (36:25)

That was Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, in conversation with Monocle's editorial director Tyler Brulee, at the Canadian Embassy in Tokyo. You're with Monocle Radio. Foreign 36 in Wellington, and that's 8:36 in Zurich. New Zealand has just changed its visa policy, allowing those on the Active Investor plus, also known as the golden Visa, to buy or build homes worth over 5 million New Zealand dollars. Well, to find out why that's happening and why it's controversial, I'm joined now from Wellington by field correspondent at Radio New Zealand, Charlotte Cook. Charlotte, hello to, to you. Now, what are the terms of this visa? Tell us about it.

H (37:18)

So it's, it sounds pretty golden, but there are a little, a few hiccup or catches here. So you have to invest or buy or build homes worth at least $5 million. You have to be of good character, pass a health test and contribute to New Zealand's economy. So if you have a large investment portfolio, moving to that, to New Zealand and bringing your family with you on work visas or student visas, so you've essentially got to commit to supporting the New Zealand economy in some way. And I mean, this is for a very select group of the population who have that amount of money. So with that in mind, there has still been huge demand. There's been about nearly 600 applications, and that covers nearly 2,000 people. And that was by the end the year of, of February. So it was announced last year. And it's only just come into play. But from those minimal calculations, at the 5 million New Zealand dollars minimum spend, that's about 3.5 billion New Zealand dollars of investment, of new investment coming from those applications. So it is a huge boost for the New Zealand economy.

A (38:37)

Weren't foreigners previously banned though from owning property? And why did.

H (38:44)

Yes, so this is slightly different to the initial ban, but it's along the same page. So what we've seen is in around 2017, 2017, 2018, the housing market was just going ballistic here. So it was growing unaffordable points where people just couldn't get into the market. And it worked out that about a quarter of New Zealand's were actually owning their own home homes at the time, which was well down from a few years earlier where it was about half the population. And so the government at the time, the leader, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, she put in a foreign buyer ban to stop overseas investment. And that meant people couldn't really buy your dream bolt hole to escape the horrors of the world in New Zealand because that was what was one of the things that was driving the house price up. And in a time when New Zealand didn't have enough housing to keep all of its people in homes, people were living in cars and garages and the like. So that was something that they, they brought in to try and control the market. But you know, Covid came along and absolutely blew that out of the water.

A (40:01)

And so how have New Zealanders reacted now to this idea, idea that foreigners can come in?

H (40:08)

I think that largely it hasn't been as controversial as one might have expected because it is more of a move to New Zealand rather than you can live in China or the UK or the US and just have kind of a holiday home. You've really got to participate in New Zealand society and be part of the economy here. So it hasn't been been as controversial as perhaps what the ban was. And I mean the economy here is still really struggling. And so houses themselves have dropped. They, they reached their peak in, in November 2021, just, just after Covid or midst of COVID And then in places like Wellington, where I'm from, house house values have now dropped back 30%. So, so that is in a market where rates are increasing, insurances are increasing, everything is going up while generally your biggest investment is going down. So they're hoping that this might boost the economy in other ways with new money and new investors coming in.

A (41:16)

Are there specific concerns about growing wealth and influence from places such as China,

H (41:24)

I think there probably are. But as with the rest of the world, everyone is managing those kinds of influences and the politics that surround that. So it will be managed in a way that is safe if there are concerns from that. And of course this is not an automatic green card and you still have to pass a lot of tests and, and get the appropriate visas. So that will be alleviating some of those concerns.

A (41:55)

Yeah, just give me some idea of the migration stats because people are leaving New Zealand.

H (42:02)

Yes, the great brain drain they're calling it. And so this idea that there are and is huge demand for wealthy people to move to New Zealand. There are a lot of people, but on the other end of the spectrum leaving. So. So

A (42:19)

even Jacinta Ardern's left.

H (42:22)

Yeah, she appears to be the new face of this trend, which has sort of happened already with people migrating, a large portion of them moving to Australia. And nearly 40% of those people that are leaving are aged 18 to 30. So that's about 73,000 Kiwis leaving last year. And that's because of these high costs of living and better opportunities in wages and wage growth in Australia.

A (42:49)

And I just want to talk a little bit about the kind of people that are coming in and you alluded slightly to this. Are they doomsday preppers? Because we've seen a lot of people like, I don't know, I'm thinking of say, kim.com or various others. And there's a lot of literature surrounding this too, about people buying a bolt hole in New Zealand and trying to make it sort of, I don't know, apocalypse safe.

H (43:10)

Yeah, I think that there has been that kind of image in the past and perhaps, perhaps this new visa is trying to steer away from that. But I mean, if you've had a look, I had a little search before to see, to really torture myself and see what kind of places were available and they are stunning and in the best parts of New Zealand. So I mean, if you had 5 to 15 million million dollars spare, why wouldn't you want to move to New Zealand and live somewhere that beautiful? But I think, yes, there are some of the Silicon Valley types and the rich and famous that do like to have their little safe space. And apparently with some of, you know, the things that are happening in the world at the moment with America and the Middle east, there has been an increase in searches for moving to New Zealand, which is quite typical of when things kick off in the world. They do people like to research, you know, how far is New Zealand? Is it Safe. Can we move there? So it's following in that trend. But this time they. If they have the money to back it up, they could do it.

A (44:15)

And just finally, a word on architecture in New Zealand. I'm completely obsessed by those television programmes taking us around incredible houses there. Are we seeing then a boom in new builds of really beautiful design?

H (44:31)

I think there's a bit of both this kind of. Because we've been in a housing crisis, there's a lot of your stock stand get things built quickly and efficiently. And then there is the group of people that have the money and the time and the incredible creativity and brains to build these beautiful houses and really lean into the landscape and the topography of New Zealand, which is fantastic and incredible in itself. So building creative houses and this new wave of architecture is certainly possible and kind of the world is your oyster.

A (45:09)

Charlotte, thank you very much indeed. That's Charlotte Cook, field correspondent at Radio New Zealand. This is Monocle. Radio. Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence. All to elevate you. Ubs. Banking is our craft. Well, let's turn to music now. Swedish singer and pop provocateur Cobra has a new album out. Torn is as bold and unapologetic as fans have come to expect. Cobra stopped by Midori House to speak with Monocle's Fernando Augusta Pacheco about the record and the inspirations behind it.

D (46:32)

This is my first album and when you do an EP, I've done quite a few EPs. You have to be very to the point. You have to have one vision, it has to be very strong and you cannot dive into too many complex feelings or emotions because you have a very limited amount of time to show what you're all about about. And when I was writing the album, I was starting to write music like my eps and it didn't feel like I was challenging myself and I stopped feeling like I was evolving. And the only thing I've tried so many things in music, but one thing that I felt like I was missing in my songwriting was like the personal touch, I think. I've done so much club music and my style has been very repetitive lyrics over very textured beats. I was really excited about writing more like trying melodies for the first time, trying chords for the first time, trying to write more about feelings for the, you know, Things that doesn't go over a house beat that goes maybe over a pop song, you can get a little bit more introspective, I guess. And when you. You have like, I have 11 songs, you can also show a little bit more of depth. I feel like I have such a rich musical background, really, and I never really had the opportunity to show it. So I'm more excited to show what else I can do outside of the short format ep.

G (48:09)

I have a question because you did

C (48:11)

mention the word melodies as well.

G (48:12)

And I know you come from Sweden and you're not perhaps, you know, the typical kind of Swedish pop that maybe

C (48:18)

a lot of people know, but it

G (48:19)

is a country known for melodies and everybody kind of studies music. I wonder, just being from Sweden, what did influence at your work?

C (48:27)

And as I said, I know that you're not necessarily ABBA or Ace of

G (48:29)

Bass, but you know what I mean, right?

D (48:31)

I think it's like when it's so in your world, like the sound of how to make a pop song. I think Cobra was really born. The way I write music was really born as a defiance of that. I think I was writing a lot of music at school, like, and it would be. So I've always been slightly of a provocateur, like slightly anti everything. So I was like, oh, we're supposed to conform to how to write. This is how you make a pop song. It's not interesting and it's not fun and life is about breaking that thing. So in the beginning, the earlier works was very much no verses, no choruses, just like a little vocal hook. And then it goes into A, A, B and C, C part instead of the classical format. But now I'm much more leaning into kind of the verse and that whole thing, which is another experiment in itself, how to make those kind of the standard format of songwriting. And how do you mesh the core of who I am, which is to not do that into. I'm trying to push it into that one world a little bit because it's also a challenge to do that well.

A (49:45)

Absolutely.

G (49:46)

Well, let's talk about some of the songs on the album. I mean, I have to say my favorite song is Dog.

A (49:57)

Give me some touch.

G (50:00)

I mean, I love many songs I was writing here. Think charming. Very nice. Very different. Different songs.

D (50:05)

Yes.

G (50:05)

So. But I. I like both, you know. But tell us, is there a song that is your favorite or a song

C (50:10)

that you would like to talk about?

D (50:11)

Well, I really like Hit Girl. I feel like Hit Girl is. It comes right after Dog. I feel like, that song is, like, five songs in. In one song. It was actually. It started out as, like, a piano ballad that now is like. I don't know if it's edm, but it's like an electronic, very intense track where. Where it starts as a rap. I feel like in the start, I always try to envision the world, but, like, in the start, I'm in the car, and then I go out and I sing, and then I go to a bar and, like, because the second verse is almost like an acoustic bass that comes in, and I do a little jazzy singing over it. So, like, I go into the bar and I sing about going into a bar, and it sounds like I'm going into a bar. It's a very, like, theatrical track, and it's not one of the singles, but it's a favorite one of mine. I think we did really well with the production, and I worked on it. But it's like you said with Dog, and Charming at that part of the album. It's like a mini, little, mini love story, because Hush, which is that first meet goes into Charming, which is about staying in love. You know, when you go deeper and you see that this person is also, unfortunately, a person, and, you know, not all lovey, but you stay and you love it anyways. And then you go over to Dog, and it all kind of falls apart, and, you know, you're just really frustrated with everything. And then it goes over to Hika, which is more about being by yourself and navigating this very extreme world that you live in as an artist. So the whole album kind of follows

A (51:53)

a story that was the Swedish singer Cobra in conversation with Fernando Augusto Pacheco. You're listening to the Globalist list on Monocle Radio. And to round up the show, let's have a wrap of culture news. And to do that, I'm joined by Monocle's associate editor for culture, the gorgeous Sophie Monaghan Combs. Good morning to you, Sophie.

B (52:43)

Good morning, Georgina. That was a nice start.

A (52:45)

Well, you are looking very gorgeous, I have to say.

B (52:48)

I'm not even wearing my makeup yet.

A (52:52)

Let's talk about other gorgeous things to look at, and that is the Venice Biennale. The artist lineup has been revealed.

B (52:59)

Yes. So the Venice Biennale takes place. It'll start in May, and then it'll run until the end of November. And this edition has the theme of In Minor Keys. And one of the very interesting and very poignant things about this year's edition, that the curator was the first African woman to be in the role Kuyokuyo, she's a. She was a Cameroonian art curator and she sadly away a few months after it was revealed that she was pulling together this Biennale. In that time, she had decided on the theme and she'd pulled together a team who were going to help her put together this, this enormous event. And so with the artist having just been revealed, you know, it's very clear that her vision is really embedded in everything that the Biennale is doing moving forward. And as the first African woman to be in the post, there are a lot of Africa curators. You know, some of them are based in Africa, some of them are now based in Europe. But there will be a lot of representation from the continent as part of this edition of the Biennale.

A (54:11)

And I'm just looking. Zimbabwe has got a great lineup, including Gideon Gomo and Felix Schumber and, Pardon Mapundera and Eva Rath. Now she's a young and up and coming artist. Her mother, Kate Ralph, now sadly deceased, immensely collectible. And I have a lot of her work actually at home that I've had for, I don't know, 30 years. Beautiful, beautiful paintings of trees and things. So very glad that that whole sort of African feel is coming through in this Biennale. Now, of course, Russia is another bone of contention here.

B (54:43)

Yes, this is the big controversy. So Russia hasn't sort of been at the Venice Biennale since 2022, but the pavilion is back this time. One thing that's interesting about this is the, the kind of authority that the Venice Biennale foundation, they are owned by the countries, but they are not embassies. They're not kind of sovereign areas. But in 2022, the Russian pavilion was closed. That was a decision made by the curator and the artists. In 2024, it was open again, but it was sort of given over to Bolivia and they moved in and they had it as their, their pavilion. But it feels like this time it will be back in, in Russian hands. And the Ukrainian foreign minister has said that this time risks whitewashing war crimes. There's been a lot of, you know, kind of expected outcry. And one thing that I thought was interesting, the activist group Pussy Riot ran a put up a big Instagram post kind of detailing why they thought it was such a bad idea. And they said, you know, we will definitely be there and we will definitely be protesting. So, you know, whether it goes ahead or not, I think it will definitely be, you know, there'll be a lot to talk about there, and it will be very, very controversial.

A (56:00)

And if I could just use to shamelessly plug meat, the writers. I had Maria in here the other day, who's one of the Pussy Riot girls. She's written this book called Political Girl, and she was fabulous with all her tattoos and everything. And I have absolutely no doubt, if she says she's going to be there protesting, she will be doing it with bells on.

B (56:18)

Yes. And they, you know, they are so good at causing, you know, a big scene. And I think it's. It's very interesting. You know, I heard that conversation that you had, and it really is about the relationship between art and politics and the Venice being art is a real kind of melting pot of everything that is happening in the world at the moment. You know, another side of this, which is, of course, something to note, is that the us, Israel and Iran will all likely be represented there. The last time I went to the art Biennale, in 2024, Israel did have a pavilion, and no one knew what was going to happen with it. And the curators and the artists just put up a very small sign saying that we will not be sort of inhabiting this PAV until there's a ceasefire in Gaza. This obviously happened in the wake of October 7th and the war in Gaza. And that became, you know, it was a very simple thing. It was just a little piece of A4 paper, but it was photographed constantly. It was a very sort of present way of, you know, making politics very present at the Biennale. So I think lots will take place this year.

A (57:25)

I mean, I would just suggest, though, that artists tend to be generally. And I. This is a generalization, I acknowledge, but anti war. I mean, and so the Russians that are coming are not necessarily Putin's supporters. They're probably against everything he has to say.

B (57:39)

Yes, it is very difficult because the pavilions are run by the countries. So, you know, that. That kind of move by the Israeli curators and artists, they had done that completely by themselves. They had. They wasn't authorized. And it was a very lot, you know, no one knew about. It was completely under wraps. So we'll have to wait and see what happens with the Russian Palace.

A (58:01)

Sophie, we've only got a minute to go, but there's a great interview you've got in the latest edition of the magazine.

B (58:05)

Yes, I wanted to shout this out on the week of the Oscars. There is a new category which obviously doesn't come up very often for casting. And I commissioned a profile in the current issue of Monocle with Nina Gold, who's just a real. I mean, firstly, she has a fabulous name for being in show business, but she is just really a star of the casting world. And she's been nominated for Hamnet this year. And I think the piece is very interesting. It talks about what is casting, what are the sort of attributes you have to have for a casting director. It's this sort of slightly amorphous thing, which is quite hard to describe. But I think she does a good job of articulating what the role is.

A (58:44)

Yeah. And great photograph of her, too. Sophie, thank you very much indeed. That's Sophie Monaghan Combs. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Anita Riota and Laura Kramer, our researcher, Anneliese Maynard, and our studio manager, Lily Austin, with editing assistance by Jack Juars. After the headlines. There's more music on the way and the briefing is live at midday in London. The Globalists will return at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.