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- [00:04]
UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 9 April 2026 on Monocor Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London, this is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, what did Donald Trump do to America? We'll examine whether the war in Iran did long term damage to the way the world sees the United States. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, Afghanistan says peace talks with Pakistan being held in China have been useful. What does this mean and will we see an end to conflict then?
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Henry R.E. Sheridan
The conditions that renters face here are felt in cities across America. Mamdani's bet is that those conditions also represent a political opportunity and that New York City is the place to prove it.
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Emma Nelson
A look at Zoran Mamdani's first 100 days in office. It's New York's youngest mayor living up to the hype. Our editorial director, Tyler Brulee will join me from Zurich to look ahead to a week of radio programmes from the United Arab Emirates, plus the latest newspapers and the news from the Vatican. That's all coming up on the Globalist live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. A fire safety officer has refused to answer any questions about the hearing into a fatal blaze which broke out in a Swiss ski resort in new year, killing 40 people, many of them teenagers. Venezuela's interim president Delta Rodriguez has vowed her country will not return to the hyper inflation and mass immigration seen under her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro. And in London, Buckingham palace is to hold the biggest exhibition of Queen Elizabeth II's clothing in history to mark what would have been her 100th birthday. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, having dragged the United States to the brink of committing what many legal experts warned would be a war crime, Donald Trump pulled his name back from bombing Iran's civilian infrastructure earlier this week and pushed ahead for a ceasefire with Tehran. The violence, both actual and metaphorical, with which President Trump has driven America has left many parts of the world wondering who Uncle Sam is and whether Relationships have changed in the long term. One US relationship, arguably in a political mess, is in is the NATO. One has been a full and frank meeting between the US President and the alliance's Secretary General at the White House recently. So to talk now about what's happening with NATO and America, America's wider reputation, I'm joined now by our contributing editor and host of the Foreign Desk, Andrew Muller. Very good morning to you, Andrew. Good to have you with us.
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Andrew Muller
Good morning, Emma.
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Emma Nelson
Now, when we mean that Mark Ritter's had a frank discussion with Donald Trump at the White House, is that a shorthand for a row?
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Andrew Muller
Yes. I mean, in the lexicon of diplomatic euphemism, the word frank, often expressed within the dreaded full and frank exchange of views, means that right now, trembling underlings are sweeping up the office crockery.
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Emma Nelson
What do we believe has been at the heart of what this row is all about?
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Andrew Muller
It's the same row that I think, well, row tension that has been going on and off now for nearly a decade. This is NATO desperately trying to find ways to stop Donald Trump from flouncing entirely. Now, it is not actually clear that he can do that. In fact, he almost certainly can't. Almost as if somebody saw this coming. Joe Biden signed a law, co sponsored indeed by Senator Marco Rubio, as he then was, which stops any US President unilaterally withdrawing the United States from NATO without two thirds of the Senate agreeing with him. But as everybody really knows, that's not what's really important. What is really important is Article 5, the Mutual Defence clause, and that is in the gift of the US President, in that he's the Commander in Chief, he gets to decide whether the US turns up or not. And as things stand, nobody has the least idea whether he would.
- [04:58]
Emma Nelson
And indeed there is also that idea that the United States, as you said, cannot unilaterally decide or tell NATO what to do. Before the meeting, it was reported that Donald Trump believed that NATO was tested and they failed when it came to their involvement in the Iran war. Mark Ritter said, oh no, we have been helping, we've helped with logistics and overflights. But this idea of testing and then being failed, is it NATO failing or are they just adhering to a rules based order?
- [05:28]
Andrew Muller
It has honestly never been clear that President Trump actually understands how NATO works. He had this obsession in his first term, especially with NATO countries failing to meet the spending target, which was then two or two and a half percent of GDP on defence. I genuinely still think he thought that was some sort of annual membership subscription and that therefore the United States was paying much more than anybody else into NATO. That isn't how it works. It's also not how it works that every member of NATO is obliged to go along with every military adventure that any member of NATO may embark upon. The question, as always with Trump, is whether he knows that and is just saying stuff for effect or whether he genuinely doesn't understand.
- [06:19]
Emma Nelson
And there is a thought that, however, that were the United States to try to withdraw from NATO practically, that would take years, wouldn't,
- [06:28]
Andrew Muller
would practically take years to dismantle the infrastructure, the administration and all of that kind of thing. But what does make an immediate difference is that everybody understands, especially the potential adversaries of NATO's mostly European members, everybody understands that the United States security backstop is now gone and that Europe is. Well, to the extent that a multination superpower is ever on its. It would be a huge, it would be a huge moment if Donald Trump just announced he was done with NATO, which he can do, and which would effectively end the United States involvement.
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Emma Nelson
These announcements that we see come and go all the time. They're absolute character of the way that Trump operates. We saw it earlier on this week that there was a threat to bomb Iranian infrastructure. And then before we know it, we'll have a ceasefire. We'll come on to the fragility of the ceasefire in a moment. But there is always that idea behind it that the world continues to on its usual path of seeing things in a very, very straightforward way. I wonder whether we are repeatedly making the mistake that Donald Trump is running a reality show, but the whole world is the set.
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Andrew Muller
I think that penny has dropped by now, at least I hope it has. Certainly for Europe. I mean, that bizarre period earlier this year in January when the United States was threatening to invade Greenland and Denmark, its allies were having to scramble soldiers to Greenland to deal or to prepare for that eventuality. If people didn't get it from that, then they're never going to get it. And you know, I've spoken in the last few years at the big diplomatic and security conferences to many, many European ministers, all of whom understand, especially when you're talking to them off the record, as more than one of them has put it, we have to start at least behaving and assume, behaving like and assuming that the United States is no longer reliable partner. Trump possibly significantly, possibly not again, which I guess reinforces your point. Who knows? Did raise Greenland again in the last few hours in another one of his audaciously punctuated social media blurts and explain
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Emma Nelson
a little bit more about the social media blurts that have done a significant amount of damage. I mean, the social media blurt, that's three words which in many ways sort of convey a sort of a lightness and a sort of a frivolity to it. But in actual fact, when you have Europe and in fact the rest of the world sitting down thinking we can't trust the United States anymore, how broken is the United States reputation?
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Andrew Muller
Oh, absolutely broken. I mean, certainly in terms of what it used to represent. I mean, there have always been disputes between the United States and most of Europe. They have seen the world very, very differently in many different respects, which is only to be expected because they're very different places. And President Trump was not the first US President to suggest to European allies that they had been taking a long nap beneath the American umbrella pretty much since the end of World War II. And more to the point, President Trump wasn't wrong to say that. And I mean, certainly his less polite approach does appear to have jolted the Europeans out of their complacency in that respect, which is no bad thing. But everybo, everybody always understood that if there was an absolute crisis, like an Article 5 level crisis, this is actually happening. Russia is on the move and Russia has predatory ambitions towards NATO nations. Everybody just absolutely assumed that the United States would turn up and now nobody can assume that. And when people game out the nightmare scenarios and you start to think about a Russian lunge for the Suwalki gap along the border between Poland and Lithu Estonia, or a semi deniable incursion into the Russian speaking realms of Latvia or Estonia, does anybody really think that Donald Trump would show up prepared to fight World War III in those circumstances? I would be surprised.
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Emma Nelson
And the long term effects of this, you know, once there is a change in the character in the White House, whatever is left of it, this will take a very long time to repair though, won't it?
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Andrew Muller
Oh yeah. I mean, it may not be repairable. We simply don't know what America's future hold. And again, as more than one sort of weary, sighing European office holder has said to me, Europe cannot base the long term defence of a continent on the possibility that, you know, every four years the voters of the United States might elect somebody who simply isn't interested in defending Europe or is perhaps actively hostile to it.
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Emma Nelson
Mulla, while I've got you here, let's talk about what's been happening in Lebanon for the last 24 hours. We have ferocious Israeli Strikes on Lebanon reports that up to 250 people have died. Iran is saying that part of this fragile ceasefire, which does not seem to be holding that well between Iran and the United States is contingent on Israel no longer attacking targets in Lebanon. The White House has said, look, Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States. This is a separate issue. But the fact remains that Israel now drags the United States into its conflicts and its issues. What does that do to the United States reputation, not just in the Middle east with the likes of Saudi Arabia, but worldwide?
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Andrew Muller
I don't think that makes that much difference to the United States reputation, everybody. One thing apparently we can still rely on is that the relationship between the United States and Israel remains rock solid. The question of whether Lebanon is included in the ceasefire. I don't understand at all how this got missed. It's right there in the original pitch made by the Pakistani prime minister. US Vice President JD Vance was attempting to style this out yesterday as some sort of misunderstanding. But what will be interesting in the next 24 hours, 48 hours, and in fact, possibly for the rest of our natural lives, now that I think of it, is the leverage Iran now has over the Strait of Hormuz. We heard Iran yesterday saying they were going to close it again because of Israel's actions in Lebanon. To be clear, what Iran is doing in the Strait of Hormuz is altogether illegal under international law, that is, you know, under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Strait of Hormuz is international waters. Iran has no right to block it. But the precedent has now been established that they can and they will. They've seen by looking at the reaction of markets how effective it is. They have the entire global economy under their thumb. The Iranians might be thinking we've got something better than a nuclear weapon.
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Emma Nelson
Andrew Muller, thank you so much for joining us on the line. To read more about the future of the NATO US Alliance, Andrew has written a piece in today's Monocle Minute, our free daily newsletter. If you're interested, sign up by heading to monocle.com minute. It's 11:13am in Islamabad. Afghanistan has said that peace talks with Pakistan being held in China have been useful. The negotiations are aimed at putting an end to a conflict which has seen cross border violence for months. I'm joined now by Lyn o', Donnell, columnist for Foreign Policy magazine, who joins me now from Melbourne in Australia. Good afternoon, Lynn.
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Zoran Mamdani
Hello.
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Lynn O'Donnell
How are you?
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Emma Nelson
Very well, thank you. Glad to have you with us on the line. This idea is that they're exploring comprehensive peace talks. There is a suggestion behind that that there's both a willingness and a long term view being taken here by both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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Lynn O'Donnell
I think that's a very polite way of putting it. Both sides have said that there has been progress, but if you sort of burrow down into the fine print, it doesn't look very much like progress at all. Apart from the fact that mid level diplomatic delegations from both sides of the Durand line ended up in Urumqi in northwestern China to have a chat about their differences and really nothing has been put in writing and neither side has made any commitment to peace.
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Emma Nelson
So explain to us the circumstances which have brought these two sides together
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Lynn O'Donnell
in terms of how they ended up in Urumqi. The Pakistanis decided after almost four years of the Taliban now in control in Afghanistan. Thanks. It might be added to the Pakistanis basically using their proxies to attack the Pakistani state. There is a group called the Pakistani Taliban, the Tehriki Taliban, Pakistan, that is very closely related to the Afghan Taliban and they have been waging a war against the Pakistani state for quite some time now. The Taliban, the Afghans were sheltered and funded and armed by the Pakistani state and army and intelligence agency as their proxy in their fight against India during the, during the war against the United States. Are you still with me? And then they decided to turn against Pakistan once they took control. And they have been sheltering among Amongst more than 20 jihadist and anti state Islamist organizations, the Pakistani Taliban. And this has allowed them to continue from a safe haven over the border to attack Pakistani state targets with the loss of many hundreds of people across that part of Pakistan that borders Afghanistan. Pakistan finally got sick of it because the Taliban has been saying to them, as it says to everybody, we do not harbour terrorists, even though it's very well documented that they do. So Pakistan started bombing Taliban military assets, bases and said that we are now in an open war. Well, this is quite alarming to China, which is good friends of both Pakistan and Afghanistan. And then they decided to have peace talks in Urumqi. Quite, I think, I might add, ironically, because Urumqi is the capital of the northwestern region of China called Xinjiang and that was East Turkestan before the Chinese Communist Party took it over home to Uyghur Muslims. Neither the Afghan Taliban or its predecessor in the Republic or the Pakistanis has ever made any protest about the abuses by the Chinese Communist Party on the Uyghurs, where they're basically being wiped out culturally and linguistically by the Chinese Communist Party with impunity.
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Emma Nelson
So explain to us just how this is remedied, because you'd mentioned the role of China there and you've mentioned the fact that this complicated situation, as you have just outlined, outlined, is incredibly complicated and dates back a very, very, very long time. So putting these two sides in a room and saying that they're having, constructing constructive talks will lead to what it is hoped.
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Lynn O'Donnell
Well, the hope is that it will lead to peace and some sort of stasis along that border and that the two sides get along. But the Taliban now in control of Afghanistan, liars and murderers and insurgent by nature and drug dealers, and what they do is use the words of diplomacy to basically lie. And the big lie has been since they took over in August 2021, that they do not harbour terrorist organizations. It's so well documented that their denials are just breathtaking. Everybody who pays attention knows that they do harbour, including Al Qaeda, which has revived its training camps. And Islamist terrorists from across the globe churn through a revolving door in Afghanistan to train at the Al Qaeda training camps. So, in my view, I don't think anything will change. I think the rest of the rhetoric is there. China doesn't want trouble on its borders. It can't get the Taliban to do what it wants, which is to hand over Uyghurs who are members of an organization called the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which basically exists to overthrow the Chinese Communist government. And the Taliban say, yes, yes, we'll do it. And they never do. The Pakistanis are beholden to China for billions of dollars in loans, as well as development of gas fields and the Gwadar port. So it's like this symbiotic dialogue of the death. To be honest with you, I don't think anything will change. It's just more rhetoric.
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Emma Nelson
Lynn o', Donnell, columnist for Foreign Policy magazine, joining us on the line from Melbourne. Thank you so much. Still to come on today's program, we head to Zurich to be joined by Monica the journalist Juliet Lindley. She's standing by what's on your radar today, Juliet.
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Juliet Lindley
Good morning, Emma. Well, the Pope is heading off to Algeria soon. He's then going to be going to Cameroon, Angola and equatorial Guinea. That's 11 days, 11 cities, and the trip will focus on fostering Christian Muslim relations, just as he increasingly calls out world leaders for unleashing wars instead of choosing peace.
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Emma Nelson
Thank you, Juliet. We will be heading to you after the headlines at the bottom of the hour. This is the Globalist
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UBS Narrator
craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
Time now to have a look at the newspapers. Latika Book is the writer at large for the Australian news publication the Nightly. She's also a Monocle regular. Good morning.
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Leti Kabuk
Good morning. And I'm sensing a bit of an antipodean takeover on Monocle Radio this morning.
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Emma Nelson
Go on.
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Leti Kabuk
Well, you've had a few.
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Emma Nelson
Well, yes, of course, yeah. Actually we've got three in a row.
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Leti Kabuk
Yeah, exactly.
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Emma Nelson
Genuinely hadn't recognized.
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Leti Kabuk
I clocked the accents maybe before you did. Taken by stuff your accent Agnostic? It would appear I am.
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Emma Nelson
I just hear the words. How are we anyway?
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Leti Kabuk
A glorious weather outside again. 21 degrees. Summer, if not spring is well and truly here.
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Emma Nelson
Brilliant. I was in Spain yesterday. It was pouring with rain.
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Leti Kabuk
Are you serious?
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Emma Nelson
It was brilliant.
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Leti Kabuk
It's the greatest irony of all time.
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Emma Nelson
I came back, got off the airplane and took off my car. It was wonderful. Right, what's happening where you are?
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Leti Kabuk
Okay, well a lot of news around obviously about Iran, which I know you've been discussing already on the program. And I think a couple of points are now becoming clear. Who would have guessed? But this ceasefire is beginning to fray in a serious way. There's a couple of reasons. One is Israel has attacked Lebanon and the Iranians say this was part of the ceasefire, that all of their friends would bethe attacks would cease on all of the neighbourhood, including Iran backed Lebanon. So Israel and the US are saying, well this was never part of the deal. And you have some extraordinary comments starting to come out, including that perhaps the Iranians didn't understand English enough about what was included in this deal. Now, J.D. vance, the Vice President who's been in Hungary trying to help help engineer the re election of Viktor Orban in Hungary, he goes to the polls on the weekend. He's supposedly meant to be heading to Pakistan to work out these negotiations on formalising the two week ceasefire into a long term peace deal. Some speculation around whether that's going to happen, but JD Vance is one of the critical characters now saying out loud that he thinks the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, quote, and it just didn't. We never made that promise. So you can see there's already a lot of misunderstandings, a lot of ways for this to go wrong. One of the other big revelations over the last day or two, now, we knew that this was going to be an issue as soon as that ceasefire was announced via Trump's Truth Social. Because you will remember in that quote, Emma, Trump did say that he wanted the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but straight after Iran came out and said, yes, we agree to the ceasefire, but passage through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, is going to be subject to Iranian military management. Well, the FT is reporting that that's going to be a toll of US$1 per barrel, possibly payable in crypto, by the way. So we now have a toll on the Strait of Hormuz that wasn't there before. There's a lot that can go wrong.
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Emma Nelson
There is, and there's quite a lot that we've got sort of dynamic reporting at the moment. Because this closure of the Strait of Hormuzzi is something which is having like, immediate repercussions. Just looking at what the Financial Times is saying is that there are now, there are ship owners waiting on the sidelines. I mean, they are literally banking up and there are fewer vessels currently passing the straight off Hormuz than during the fiercest days of fighting. That's how the FT is reporting it. If you look at the Times this morning, they're seeing how this trickles down to the average citizen across the world and they're doing it through the, through the frame of a British consumer. And it says the Middle east truce has calmed oil market markets to a certain degree. But supply chain chaos means Britons face a protracted wait for relief at the pump and supermarket. People are going to be told that they're going to feel worse off for up to six months to a year if this thing falls apart. But the fact remains is that this ability, and Andrew was Muller was talking about this earlier on, the ability for Iran just to completely turn the tap on and off is incredible given how far reaching the effects are.
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Leti Kabuk
So this is what I think is one of the most dangerous outcomes of what has eventuated as a result of this war on Iran. We knew the Iranians were very adept at making shahed drones at scale. We knew that from the war in Russia. What we didn't know and what Iran had not been able to demonstrate before was the capacity to use those drones to attack its Gulf neighbour states. Target the very economic business model those States run on, I'm thinking here, the UAE and Qatar in particular. And now Iran has a capacity to just lob a single drone at Dubai airport whenever it wants. It could blame a rogue commander if it wanted to, if it happened under a ceasefire or if this ceasefire breaks down. It could just do it if it felt like it. And suddenly you would have the Middle east aviation hubs potentially wiped out by insecurity or, you know, put into a permanent state of chaos. Bookings would obviously not be as those airlines would be forced to adapt in whatever way they could. We are facing a really, really uncertain region for the immediate, immediate short term, if not the long term. And then of course, as you say, Emma, this ability to now impose a toll on the Strait of Hormuz that was not there before. So we could actually call that a Trump toll. Or if you really wanted to be mischievous, maybe a Trump tariff.
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Emma Nelson
Let's have a look at another story in the New York Times. And this is being widely reported. There's been an amazing gesture by the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsutakis. They are intending in Greece to be one of those countries which is going to pass legislation to ban social media for children under the age of 15. Instead of making the parents tell this to the kids, he's actually done a video to try to get the attention of young people, which I think is brave. Very well meaning. Will it work?
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Leti Kabuk
He put it on TikTok. It's quite the irony. Will it work? Well, this is really interesting for Mitsutakis. It's not totally a surprise because last year at the UN General assembly in New York, the Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, I was at this event actually. He launched to great fanfare this idea of Australia about to introduce its social media ban onto the international stage. Attending that was Kyriakis Mitsotakis, the Greek Prime Minister and Ursula von der Leyen, the EU Commission chief, both of whom have now subsequently come out and said, we back social media bans. Mitsotakis is going ahead with implementing one. It's been already introduced in France and other Asian countries are following suit to Malaysia and Indonesia. Your question, will it work? Look, it's a long term project. There's some initial data that just came out from Australia. In the first three months of this ban, 4.7 million accounts removed. That doesn't mean 4.7 million kids were on. They might have had multiple accounts. That's across all the platforms. But under some, they found that seven out of 10 young children were still on social media. That's not to say it's a complete failure. What the Australian regulators are now doing is they're investigating all these platforms because they're very unhappy with the way that these platforms have introduced the social media ban and they're moving from a compliance to enforcement stage. So I think we will see later in this year some big announcements from the Australians targeting these companies and then we will see more clearly whether this ban might work. But I would also say this, Emma, the Australians introduced this ban and want this to spread. They want to pass on their best knowledge to countries like Greece and here in Europe that are contemplating it. I know the UK is considering it and they have always said, think about this like an alcohol ban. I had my first alcoholic drink when I was 14 years old. I went to the RSL in a country town in Australia and I was served whiskey. Now, obviously, that was illegal. Yes, I knew there was a ban in place. Does it stop everybody from doing it? No.
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Emma Nelson
We have to move finally, briefly to a brilliant story in the Times of London. A study has proven that a form of Munchausen syndrome by proxy may be driving pet owners to invent symptoms or deliberately harm their pets. It says a study found that animals showed signs of rapid recovery once they were separated from their owners.
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Leti Kabuk
I mean, I shouldn't laugh, but yes, it's a, it's a very first world problem, isn't it? So Munchausen syndrome is where people fake symptoms in order to basically get attention. It was made very prominent famous by the rapper Eminem because his mother suffered from it. Now it turns out people might be transferring this onto their pets.
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Emma Nelson
So instead of parents, perfectly fine doggy,
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Leti Kabuk
feigning this for their children, they have now transformed this onto their pets. Emma, what a time to be alive.
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Emma Nelson
LETI Kabuk, thank you so much for joining us in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist. Now here's a look at some of the stories we're keeping an eye on today. France's President Emmanuel Macron says Israel's bombardments against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon are indiscriminate. The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said they demonstrated an intolerable disregard for life. Lebanon. Cullen's civil defense agency says at least 254 people have died and more than 1100 people have been injured in the strikes. A fire safety officer has refused to answer any questions about the hearing. Into a fatal blaze which broke out at a Swiss ski resort. 41 people died, most of them teenagers, as they celebrated New Year at a bar in the town of Kron, Montana, it emerged that the building hadn't been given its annual fire inspection for seven years. Venezuela's interim president, Delsey Rodriguez, has vowed not to repeat the errors of the past. She said the country would not return to the hyperinflation and mass immigration seen under her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro. And in London, Buckingham palace is to hold the biggest exhibition of Queen Elizabeth II's clothing in history to mark what would have been her 100th birthday. Elizabeth was Britain's longest reigning monarch, spending more than 70 years on the third throne. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It's 8:32 in Zurich, which is where we head now. Now, this week we saw Pope Leo mark two achievements. The first was presiding over his first Mass as pontiff at St. Peter's Square. The second was being taught to spin a basketball on a single finger as part of a visit by members of the Harlem Globe Globe Tr. To the Vatican, a man indeed of many talents. And joining me now is Juliet Lindley, journalist and former Vatican correspondent, to bring us all the papal news. A very good morning to you, Juliet. How are you?
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Juliet Lindley
Good morning, Emma. All is well here in Zurich. Thank you.
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Emma Nelson
I have to get St. Peter's Basilica in St. Mark's Square, haven't it? I have confused my locations and my saints. Should we try and clear that one up for everyone?
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Juliet Lindley
That can happen, but I'm sure your pathway to heaven is still on track.
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Emma Nelson
That's very kind of you. Glad you're paying attention. Glad you care very much. Tell us what Pope Leo's been up to, because there has been a sort of a lovely buoyancy to the last week. He has this real seriousness about him and this really tough relationship that an American pope has with an American president at the moment. But the fact remains, you know, we have seen just joyful, beautiful events from Pope Leo.
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Juliet Lindley
Well, every event at the Vatican seems to be joyful and beautiful just because the optics coming out of St. Peter's Square and the weather over Easter in Rome are always sort of very, very, very. But. And you said the American pope and his relationship to the US Administration. This is an American pope who, when you see him spinning a basketball on his finger, it brings back memories of Pope Francis, who did the same thing 11 years ago with the Globetrotters. But it's a bit different when it's an American pope, isn't it? And this was the first time that we had an American pope meeting these basketball players. And also who knows whether he will be setting records for being A globetrotter himself. I mean, he's off on his third international trip in less than a year of being pope. So all eyes are on him over the next few days. And all eyes have been on him as he's been calling out more and more the sort of the world leaders calling on them to stop with the violence. He said, let those who have the power to unleash wars choose peace. He also crucially, and this was picked up a lot by the international press, he said, in a speech to priests, he said, do these Christians who bear grave responsibility in armed conflicts, conflicts, do they have the humility and courage to make a serious examination of their consciences and go to confession? So that sparked a lot of controversy, if you want. Some said that he was directly rebuking those Christian leaders who had prayed over Donald Trump in the Oval Office. He wasn't necessarily doing that. Others said he should have called out leaders by name. He's being too vague now. That will never happen because that's not part of Vatican diplomacy. Those are not the holy seasons norms to pinpoint. That's not their goal. But it was the strongest language we have heard since his pontificate. And it seems to be increasing ever further for this peace pushing pontiff. He has called for a prayer vigil for peace on Saturday in Rome. He's had constant phone calls, even with Herzog and with Zelensky about the conflicts in their countries. And tomorrow he's even meeting Emmanuel Macron at the Vatican's Apostolic Palace.
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Emma Nelson
And this whole idea is the fact that he's having to step up in reaction to the militarization of religion in, in the United States. I mean, when we saw the Defense secretary, Pete Hexus, praying during a religious service at the Pentagon that there be overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy. One of the key tenets of the way that the United States is founded is that it must not have, have to a certain degree a religious element in the way that the government is run. So Pope Leo finds himself in a really tricky situation where he is forced to step up.
- [36:13]
Juliet Lindley
He is in a very tricky situation. This is a very strongly Christian Trump administration that we're seeing. And if we just want to zone in on that, hone in on that. The most overtly religious figure is definitely the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth. And just people were asking me, like, what kind of a Christian is he? He belongs to the communion of reformed evangelical church, whose beliefs are rooted in a 20th century movement called the Christian Reconstructionism, which calls for the implementation of biblical law and preaches patriarchal forms of Christianity. So this is why we're hearing so much of military action being framed with Christian language. And it's raising so many eyebrows. Meanwhile, you know, Donald Trump, he's got a Presbyterian background, but he calls himself a non denominational Christian. J.D. vance, strongly Catholic, recently converted over the last years. But in this particular conflict, we're hearing less from him.
- [37:05]
Emma Nelson
Okay, let's move now to the fact that he is going to be taking the sort of the papal tour to what, four African countries. It's 11 cities in 11 days.
- [37:17]
Juliet Lindley
Correct. He's off on his third international trip. His first one was to Turkey and Lebanon. Very recent seeing what's happening there now. His second one was to Monte Carlo, to Monaco, Emma, which is, which was sort of, it was curious choice. And many wonder whether, whether it was perhaps a fundraising trip secretly, just because there are a lot of what many people call shady people in this very sunny country. But yes, he is off to Algeria in the next couple of days and this is the first pope to visit the country. And this is a 99% Sunni Muslim country and there are less than 9,000 Catholics. But this is a very significant trip. He's chosen it also because he's a member of the Augustinian order. That means he is The Order of St. Augustine, who came from, who came from Algeria. And he will, in fact visit the home in Anaba, which was the ancient history of Hippo, which was Augustine's birthplace. Not just that, he's also going to visit the Grand Mosque of Algiers, which is one of the largest in the world, because it's a strong showing of solidarity with the Islamic world. He's a big proponent, as we know. He was that in Lebanon, in Turkey, and now again of Christian Muslim dialogue. And now more than ever, this is a strong, hefty symbolic gesture with tensions, as we know, between the west and Islamic world running pretty high. After Algeria, he then moves on to Cameroon, and there he'll be meeting the president. He'll make a trip to an orphanage. He's very much focusing not only on rapprochement between Christians and Muslims, but comforting victims of violence. And as some Vatican observers put it, he's also encouraging Catholics and their communities in, in former European colonies. So Cameroon, he's going to have a peace meeting. We don't have a lot of details on it, but this is going to be a peace meeting led by Pope Leo. And remember, the country is plagued by fighting involving extremist Boko Haram Islamic group. Members and their activities have now bled into northern Cameroon from Nigeria. So there's going to be a lot of attention on that. But the Vatican press office hasn't released too many details on who will be participating in that. After Cameroon, he goes off to Angola. That's the third leg, former Portuguese colony with a big Catholic community, Emma. It's the largest faith group there. He'll meet President Joao Lorenzo. He's going to hold several masses. And interestingly, he's going to visit the important shrine to Our lady of Mushima. And it's a key location in the Portuguese transatlantic slave trade. So people were actually baptized right where the shrine is, and then they were shipped off to the Americas for a life of enslavement. And finally, Emma, the fourth leg of his tourists to Equatorial guinea, another country with a large Catholic population, a vestige of its Spanish past. The Catholic Church here is very powerful still, and he's going to meet and greet dignitaries, say some masses, and interestingly, he's going to visit the memorial to victims of a blast in 2021 that killed more than 100 people at a military base in Bata. So a lot going. He comes back to Rome on the 23rd of April. And then, by the way, in June, he's off to Spain. The Vatican press office has just released information about that. And most importantly, he's going to be in Barcelona for the hundredth anniversary of legendary artist and architect Antoni Gaudi and the inauguration of the Sagrada Familia.
- [40:41]
Emma Nelson
Keeping across the papal diary. Juliet Lindley in Zurich. Thank you so much for joining us on the Globalist. Here. You're with me, Emma Nelson on Monocle Radio. Now, 100 days is a common time frame used to measure how well an elected official is faring in their new role. And New York's new mayor, Zohran Mandani, reaches this milestone on Friday. He made history as the city's first Muslim, first Asian American mayor, as well as its youngest. His campaign was defined above all by the single issue of making life more affordable for New York. Monocle's Henry R.E. sheridan reports now on one key area, that of housing.
- [41:27]
Henry R.E. Sheridan
For decades, Republicans and Democrats have pandered to American homeowners for a simple reason. People who own their own homes tend to vote at higher rates than those who don't. But when Zoran Mamdani kicked off his campaign to become mayor of New York City, he flipped the script on its head, banking on a direct and loud appeal to the 69% of New Yorkers who rent their homes as opposed to owning them. The two main promises he made were to reduce the cost of housing by building 200,000 new affordable homes over 10 years and to freeze rents on apartments controlled by the city. These policies won the support of many voters and played a major part in getting Mamdani into office. The cost of housing is by far the single biggest expense most New Yorkers face. More than half of the city's renters spend over 30% of their income on rent and a third spend over 50% of their income on housing. Mamdani's alignment with renters is both natural and credible. He himself is the leaseholder on a rent stabilised one bedroom apartment in the Astoria neighbourhood of Queens and is the first renter to be elected mayor of New York City since Ed Koch, who won the office in 1977. In his first hundred days in office, Mamdani has already taken steps towards his most ambitious housing goal of creating 200,000 new affordable homes. The most significant so far came in late March with the announcement of the Neighbourhood Builders Fast Track policy which makes it easier for affordable homes to be built on land owned by the city.
- [42:52]
Zoran Mamdani
And we're all here together today for an announcement where we launch the Neighborhood Builders Fast Track. What does that mean? Because I know it doesn't explain itself. What this means is that we are creating a pre qualified roster of developers
- [43:11]
Emma Nelson
and in doing so, we are going
- [43:12]
Zoran Mamdani
to cut down on pre development time
- [43:15]
Emma Nelson
for new projects from 18 months to 10 months.
- [43:21]
Henry R.E. Sheridan
Mamdani's determination to build and his willingness to slash red tape to do so has led him him to court unlikely allies. In late February, Mamdani made a surprise trip to Washington to meet President Trump. He brought with him a mock up of a front page of the New York Daily News, the city's largest tabloid, with the headline Trump to City, let's Build printed in bold capitals above a portrait of the President. Shortly after the meeting, Mamdani posted a picture of him standing alongside a beaming Trump who was holding the proposal behind the Presidential desk in the Oval Office. In a deadpan caption, Mamdani wrote that he was looking forward to building more housing in New York City. Despite his strategic ideological flexibility, Mamdani's ambition to build 200,000 units of housing still faces massive challenges. The most fundamental is money. To realize the plan, the city will need to borrow an additional $70 billion over the next decade, on top of the roughly 25 billion already committed to affordable housing in the city's existing capital plan. This would push the city well past its legal debt ceiling and require the approval of New York's governor and state legislature. In Albany, where at least some lawmakers are likely to balk given the additional debt service it would impose on an already strained budget. At the federal level, the picture is no easier. The Trump administration the administration's proposed budget cuts rental assistance by 40%, and the administration has withheld $18 billion in federal transit funding for the city, a reminder of just how precarious the relationship between Trump and his home city remains, notwithstanding the Oval Office photo opportunity. In the shorter term, Mamdani has committed to a freeze on rents. In practice, this means that rents will not go up on the roughly 1 million million apartments in the city that are rent stabilised, that is whose price is set annually by the Rent Guidelines Board, a nine member body appointed by the mayor. About one million of New York City's three and a half million housing units are rent stabilized, providing homes to some two and a half million people, nearly 30% of the city's population. Under Mamdani's predecessor, Mayor Eric Adams, the board approved approved four consecutive annual rent increases totaling 12% over his time in office. A freeze will obviously come as a relief to the city's renters, but the landlords who own rent stabilised apartments worry that the measure could push them into insolvency. Since 2020, expenses for owners of rent stabilised apartments have risen by 22% while rents haven't kept up, growing by roughly 11%. 10% of rent regulated buildings already report operating costs equal to or higher than their rental income, meaning they are close to the edge of tax foreclosure. Landlord groups also point to the tens of thousands of apartments they say are standing empty across the city, so called ghost apartments that owners say aren't worth investing capital in because the rents are too low to cover renovation costs. Tenant advocates dispute the scale of the problem, and the true number of such apartments is genuinely contested. But it speaks to a real tension at the heart of Mamdani's housing agenda. Policies designed to protect the renters who are already housed may make it harder to get new apartments onto the market. The Rent Guidelines Board is scheduled to take a preliminary vote in May, with a final decision in June. Any changes would apply to leases taking effect between October 2026 and September September 2027. The decision is likely to set the template for the city's approach to rent controlled apartments for as long as Mamdani is in office and the consequences will resonate beyond New York. The conditions that renters face here, wages that haven't kept pace with housing costs, homeownership that feels permanently out of reach, and a political class that has historically been more attentive to those who own than to those who rent are felt in cities across America. Mamdani's bet is that those conditions also represent a political opportunity and that New York City is the place to prove it.
- [47:26]
Emma Nelson
My thanks to Henry Rees Sheridan for that report. For more stories of the campaign promises Mayor Mamdani has made and how they're progressing in just over three months, tune in to the Urbanist on Monocle Radio,
- [47:41]
UBS Narrator
Iq, EQ and AI, three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you ubiquitous. Yes, banking is our craft.
- [48:19]
Emma Nelson
Now we're going to be crossing to Zurich in a little while to hear from our editorial director, Tyler Brulee about some exciting broadcasting that's happening next week at Monaco Radio's decamping to the uae. First, though, let's get the latest automotive news from Asia. And joining me now from Tokyo is Hans Grimel, who's the Asia editor of Automotive News. A very good afternoon. Two hands.
- [48:41]
Zoran Mamdani
Good afternoon to you too.
- [48:42]
Emma Nelson
So we're talking about business in the UAE in a little while in that part of the world. How much is what is happening in Iran and in the Gulf affecting the Asian automotive world?
- [48:55]
Zoran Mamdani
Well, it's having a rather big impact on in a couple different ways. It's affecting the delivery of products to that region. It's affecting the cost of inputs into the, into the cars that they make in Asia. And also so it's causing gasoline prices to increase, which is causing people to shift their buying modes a little bit so that they're turning more to electric vehicles rather than gasoline ones.
- [49:24]
Emma Nelson
So this is what you've just suggested there is that what is happening right now is going to accelerate, dare I use a sort of rather ropey analogy, the transition to greener cars.
- [49:38]
Zoran Mamdani
Well, that's the expectations because every time that the gasoline prices increase, people try to go for more fuel efficient vehicles that be those hybrid cars that have a electrified drivetrain like a battery or a motor or they go full on full electric for something that doesn't even have an engine in it at all. We're seeing a little bit of an uptick already in consideration and buying rates for these electric cars cars. But it depends a lot on how long the gasoline prices stay elevated like this.
- [50:11]
Emma Nelson
Indeed, two questions from that one. The first one is like, how quickly can countries adapt their infrastructure and the availability of, let's say, charging points to make sure that this change actually can come quite quickly. And secondly, the popularity of cars because generally speaking, you only really go and buy, buy a car once you see someone else uses it and drives it and likes it.
- [50:36]
Zoran Mamdani
Right. I don't think anybody's expecting a wholesale conversion of the, you know, whole markets in places like the United States or Europe to suddenly shift overnight to electric vehicles. I think what we're expecting is a small tick up in the, in the EV rate. EVs still have, as you note, a couple hurdles facing them. And one of them is the charging infrastructure. It's just not. Another one is that the driving ranges still aren't comparable with a gasoline vehicle. And then of course, there's the price. They tend to be a little bit more expensive than your typical gasoline car to begin with. So these are things keeping them still not from going mainstream yet.
- [51:23]
Emma Nelson
What is also helping though is the willingness of governments to help foster and to nurture domestic markets. And this is happening in Japan, isn't it, with toy.
- [51:34]
Zoran Mamdani
Well, you see in, in Japan, for example, Toyota has found some, suddenly found some good momentum with its EV strategy. Here, of course, hybrids are the most popular vehicles in Japan. The gasoline electric vehicles, not so much the pure EVs. But Toyota is making a charge into the EV market and has found pretty good momentum here. It's BZ4X all electric crossover was the best selling EV in the country for the last six months. So it's scoring on that level. Now. The flip side of that is that they're getting a lot of government incentives and paying a lot of money on the hood basically to encourage customers to buy those cars. So it may not be a completely
- [52:28]
Emma Nelson
natural demand, not necessarily a natural demand, but it is creating a rather unusual headline insofar as a Japanese brand is overtaking a Chinese electric vehicle brand. And China, as we all know, is incredibly good at getting into market, understanding what its customer needs and doing very, very well.
- [52:49]
Zoran Mamdani
Yes, in Japan they are doing well here especially, but Toyota is the biggest automaker in the home market of Japan. So it's expected that you would see a Toyota be dominant at home like that. So, and of course, we're talking about very, very small volumes still of just, you know, several thousands of vehicles, not hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands. So EVs are still trying to make an inroad.
- [53:16]
Emma Nelson
And Skriemal, thank you so much for joining us. On the line from Tokyo. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio Radio. And we jump from our studio in Tokyo to our studio in Zurich. Our editorial director, Tyler Brul is joining us. A very good morning to you, Tyler. How are you?
- [53:35]
Tyler Brulee
A very good morning to you, Emma. I'm very well, thank you.
- [53:37]
Emma Nelson
Good. Right, let's talk about travel. We were just talking about a moment ago with Hans Scrawl, the idea that the Japanese market is pivoting to perhaps contemplating a future without the internal combustion engine. It's trying to work out whether it can go fully electric, whereas I think at the moment your focus is trying to work out what the Middle east can do for itself to make sure that other people don't need to make those changes, that the Middle east can keep thriving.
- [54:06]
Tyler Brulee
Well, absolutely, that is going to be a big theme next week, Emma, because this show is going on the road to the UAE across all of next week. So we will be. Well, my last sort of twirler on the mic here in Zurich will be Sunday morning. So of course, we'll be chatting for Monocle on Sunday. So do not miss that, listeners. But then shortly after, we'll be heading to Abu Dhabi. I'll be there with our producer, Tom Webb, our editor in chief, Andrew Tuck. Steph Chungu is also going to be making sure everything is up to snuff, technically. And it'll be a week, two days in Abu Dhabi, we'll be in Sharjah, we'll be two days in Dubai. And of course, listen, we're coming off the back of this very, very shaky ceasefire, if you can even call it that at the moment. So this will be, of course, a defining component of the week, but also it is going to be testing the temperature, talking to people from really all sectors, from government, from diplomacy, from the energy sector, as we're talking about right now, and of course, culture and everything in between as well, because this is a country depending what measures you look at. But the UAE has been struck more times than Israel, or certainly there's been more launches. Its direction, of course, in a way similar to Israel. Most of the inbound rockets, drones, cruise missiles have, of course, been intercepted.
- [55:25]
Emma Nelson
Nonetheless, the last time you jumped on AN Etihad Boeing 787nine out of Zurich, you had 80% of the seats filled. There was a sense that people are undeterred.
- [55:34]
Tyler Brulee
Absolutely. And that is going to be a part of the story as well. I think we see that there is a narrative. We've talked about those stories that sort of stick very, very early on that of course, people hear about. Yeah, that there are drone attacks near airports, et cetera, and therefore that means that everything is completely shuttered. And that is clearly not the case. That was the story that we were telling last time. And it's slightly inspired us to, of course, go out there at a time when this is not a question of them needing monocle or more media coverage. But I just thought that there are. Yeah, there's a society, there's a nation, there's a region and who is getting on with it, despite, of course, all of the upheavals, the daily assaults that are inbound. I think that's also a story for us to cover because, of course, we are told of a ceasefire, that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon. It is not applied, of course, between Israel and Iran. It seems at the moment, and of course, we saw up and down the Gulf yesterday, of course, that there were still ongoing, ongoing attacks from Iran, despite, of course, a ceasefire.
- [56:42]
Emma Nelson
It's a really difficult balance to strike, isn't it? Because we see in some ways the Dubai authorities actively discouraging people from actually reporting what might or might not be going on in their skies. And as a result, it leaves a sort of a vacuum, doesn't it, that people don't really know what's going on.
- [56:57]
Tyler Brulee
I wouldn't agree with that. I think that there is a situation and I think we also want about, to talk, talk about this idea of what people are allowed to report or not report. But I think there is. When I was out there, I think there's a very good sense of, yeah, if there are missiles or the rockets that are heading your way, you are certainly aware of it. I think there is a divide, though, between what do you actually go and post for security reasons? It's not just about censorship for the sake of it, but this is also about the trajectory of Drones Incorporated coming. Is Iran able to determine, of course, where there are gaps in radar, et cetera? So I think that's also another thing that we want to discuss when we're out there on the ground.
- [57:38]
Emma Nelson
And let's also talk about aviation, because I know that in the past you've mentioned that the power of strong brands and relentless marketing has made us all feel that the only way we're going to get to A to B is through the uae. Are we seeing changes in that market now?
- [57:51]
Tyler Brulee
Absolutely. I think that this is. If you have to look at only the websites of Air Force France, Lufthansa group, etc. That they're redeploying aircraft, the redeploying aircraft because they know that there are, there's capacity and there, there's willing travelers who don't want to fly through the Gulf, they want to fly over the Gulf, they don't want to connect. And that has been a bit of a boon, of course, for many European carriers. And likewise we're seeing the same same story with Singapore Airlines and others also reminding us that you know, the traveler, that you don't have to go through the Middle east, you can go over it, you do not necessarily have to connect through Doha, Abu Dhabi or Dubai.
- [58:25]
Emma Nelson
Tyler, with the clocks against us, when are the programs starting?
- [58:29]
Tyler Brulee
The programmes will be bright and early. It's the Globalist every day next week from Monday morning, 7:00am London time, 8 continental time. That's 10:00 clock in Dubai.
- [58:38]
Emma Nelson
Look forward to it. Tyler Brule, our editorial director, joining us from Studio 4 in Zurich. Have a good day. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to our producers, Angelica Jopson, Laura Kramer and Desiree Bandley. Our researcher is Josefina Astrid Naglagomas and our studio manager was Elliot Greenfield, with additional editing by David Stevens. After the headlines, more music's on the way. The Briefing's live at midday here in London and the Globalist is back at the same time tomorrow. Hope you can join me for that if you can. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, Goodbye. Thank you very much for listening.
- [59:39]
UBS Narrator
With ubs, you have a truly global partner. Incorporated new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.