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Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 13th March, 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
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Foreign.
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This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, the new supreme leader of Iran sends his country a message of defiance, but it's spoken by a TV announcer. What has happened to Mujtaba Khamenei? Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, France's municipal elections threatened to expose a deep rift between left and right in the country. We'll look ahead to this weekend. We'll examine the latest attempt by the White House to impose the import tariffs of its own choosing.
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And we learned this week of something of an evolution in American messaging at time of war.
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Andrew Muller is here with his weekly briefing. We'll look at the papers and check in with our editor in chief who's at MIPIM in Cannes. That's all coming up on THE Globalist live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. Cuba's Foreign Ministry has announced the country will soon release 51 prisoners following talks between Cuban diplomats and the Vatican. Chile's new right wing government has signed a memorandum with the United States to begin cooperating on the supply of critical minerals and rare earths. And a Swedish pole vaulter, Armand Duplantis, has broken his own world record for the 15th time at an event named after him in his home nation. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, updates on Iran. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he wants to enable Iranians to bring down the regime as the Israeli military conducts a fresh wave of strikes on Tehran. Mr. Netanyahu said his forces were crushing Iran. Meanwhile, Israel has issued another evacuation order for large parts of southern Lebanon as it announces a further increase in operations against the Iranian backed group Hezbollah. Lebanese officials say Israeli strikes have now killed more than 600 people. Meanwhile, in a statement read out on Iranian state television, the new supreme leader, Majdabah Iran, would continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. So to assess These latest developments. Joining me in the studio is Yossi Meckelberg, Senior Consulting Fellow at the Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House here in London. And on the line from Amsterdam, Victoria Mitchell, senior Maritime Analyst at Control Risks. Good morning to you both.
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Good morning.
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Let's bring Yossi in. First on this one, talking about Benjamin Netanyahu. This is his first statement since the US Israeli strikes, isn't it?
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Yeah. And telling. It was a statement on zoom, not taking questions from journalists. So it's a kind of try to put himself as sort of a commander in chief, give his view of the world and keep saying that, you know, Israel is crushing Iran. And the message to the Iranian people, listen, we are making sure that the conditions are right for you to go and rise up against the regime. So it's all you have, the strategy from the beginning, it's nuclear, it's ballistic missiles now dealing with Lebanon and Hezbollah. But the aim is regime change.
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And this is sort of a clear signal, isn't it? Because as you say, urging Iranians to engage in regime change indicates that that is what Israel, Israel's aim in all this is. And that is diverting slightly, isn't it, from the ever changing purpose of the attacks as laid Donald Trump, but even
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Donald Trump, it was much back and forth on this one because he also used the same term sometimes and then he changes his mind, not surprisingly. But for Netanyahu, from day one, they saw what happened in Iran a few weeks ago, it might be the case they were too late. Had they done it, for instance, not that suggested they should have done it, but had they done it when the Iranian people were in the street, it might have created the momentum. When Donald Trump said, you know, back then that the help is on its way and the cavalry never appeared. I think it's very dangerous to go out there in the street definitely now. But also, you know, the regime says very clearly anyone that will go and protest in the street will be shot blank, point blank. So this is dangerous. And whether they trust enough Israel and the United States to continue, I doubt it.
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Just explain to us a little bit more about how much Israel is aware or how much Israel cares that the narrative has changed from America because it has been made absolutely clear that international law prohibits wars of aggression to enact regime change in a foreign country. And to have Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly say, we are invading, we are carrying out attacks, I should say, on Iran to enable people to rise up and enact regime change, this opens a whole new legal world, doesn't It I think two things.
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I don't think Netanyahu at this point, he doesn't care about Israeli law. Why should he care about international or either. So this is not. But also the feeling because the. And for the right reason, the regime in Iran is not a popular one, not in Iran itself and not outside it. He thinks that the case of Iran, unlike the Palestinians, for instance, he can get away with it. But you know, in a speech yesterday, he attacked the legal system in Israel for his corruption trial or for basically hunting him. He used the word hunting him in Israel for something which is baseless. So I don't think legality is something that bothers Netanyahu one iota.
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Victoria, let's bring you in on the line from Amsterdam, senior maritime analyst at Control Risks. So we need to effectively ask you what do we know what the conditions, what the current situation is in the Strait of Hormuz? Because the successor to the Ayatollah Khamenei, his son Madshaba Khamenei, has said that the Strait of Hormuz will remain throttled.
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Yeah, absolutely, Amma. And I think this is the latest statement in a range of statements from both sides in this. But the situation on the water for the shipping industry hasn't changed. Transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains at extreme risk. And although this is yet another statement highlighting that the state, the parties are going to continue their activities in the strait, most shipping immediately stopped considering transit as they considered the safety of their vessels, their cargo and most importantly their crew. And we are continuing to see a significantly reduced down to sort of single digits of any vessels planning to transit the strait at all. So whilst we're hearing another statement on a continuation of a policy, it isn't changing the situation on the water, which is that it is de facto closed because of the operators and the vassal owner decisions.
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I mean, did Mojtab Al Khamenei said that the Strait of Hormuz becomes Iran's great tool of pressure? How surprised are you about the level of disruption that has been enacted simply by closing one small patch of water?
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Not, not at all. Surprise. And I think this is a great time to talk about the fact that although it is a relatively narrow stretch of water, it is a key location for all manner of vessel types. And when we think that seaborne trade is responsible for the transport of 80, 90% of global movement of goods, any shutdown of critical waterways like straight from us will have immediate and ongoing disruption. Now, I know that for obvious reasons there's A clear focus on tanker traffic and impact for the energy, energy trade. But this is all types of goods. So whether we're talking about dry bulk, things like grain going in, fertilizer products coming out, also containerized goods, this is the root in for many countries who have just one route to get goods to themselves. And it's also the route out for goods that are used and required and imported by countries all over the world. So although it's a relatively narrow waterway, it has significant implications for global trade.
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And Victor, is there long term strategizing here coming on stream, considering whether if this conflict were to continue for not just weeks but for the foreseeable future, that the way that the world operates in terms of its transporting goods from A to B across the seas will have to fundamentally change.
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There are things that can happen, Emma, and there are things that you can't change. There are some fundamental dynamics to change. So if I go back to my point, about 89% of Seaborne Global goods being moved by seaborne trade, that is such a significant number that there's many places and many things that can only moved by sea. But what we are seeing and what we're talking to our clients about in the immediate term are things like rerouting, diverting, looking for alternative supply locations. And for many of our clients and many businesses around the world, this incident and similar instance of causing to diversify supply chains so that they're not reliant on single sources where possible. And we're also seeing countries in the region, where possible, try and find alternatives. We've seen this for instance in the UAE where there's an announcement that goods can be delivered to alternative UAE ports and then moved by land transport into places like Jebel Ali, which are in the Gulf, or Saudi Arabia, which has ports along the Red Sea coast, being able to call for rerouting of some vessels to utilize that import route and export route for that country as well. This is something which is heavily dependent upon where your coasts are, what type of goods you're trying to move and shipping. The maritime industry has always been incredibly, incredibly responsive. We see this over and over again. We saw this in the COVID pandemic, we saw this in the instance of the Red Sea crisis with Houthi targeting of shipping. What maritime tried to do is find workarounds, find alternatives, and to the extent possible to do so, they will make that happen. But the implication will be increased costs and increased complexity. And the longer the conflict continues, the more this increases.
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Thank you for that, Victoria. Bringing you back In Yossi, let's touch on a couple of things. Firstly, the speech delivered by Modi wasn't delivered by him at all. It was done by a television announcer. Do we know what has happened to him? There is rumor that he was injured in the same airstrike that killed his father two weeks ago.
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Yeah, one of the Iranians said that he was or some within the Iranian regime said that he was lightly injured. But then it's surprising. You're elected as the supreme leader and you don't deliver a speech and your first speech, which sounds very defiant of the United States and Israel is actually delivered for you. It's a statement. So there is a question here whether he's only likely injured. There is another possibility because he knows that already by the very fact that he was elected as the supreme leader is a target. So it might not be seen in a place that it can be targeted.
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And finally, we do need to touch on Lebanon. Israel issuing another evacuation order for large parts of southern Lebanon. There have been missile strikes in central Beirut. Lebanese officials saying Israeli strikes have killed more than 600 people. There are reports that thousands, if not tens of thousands of people are now displaced by what Israel is doing.
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So Israel underestimated a, that the readiness of the Hezbollah to join Iran and secondly its capabilities. So it's interesting to see the change of wording from the chief of staff here in Israel. At the beginning, Lebanon was a secondary front and now it's an additional one which tells a lot that they are going to take it very seriously. You see the level of attacks, the airstrike in Beirut and beyond, but also only last night bombing a major bridge over the Litany Bridge while the Radouan forces, the Hezbollah elite unit, is moving south of the Litan. So you can expect also probably in the next day or two to see also ground troops entering into south of Lebanon.
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Yossi Meckelburg from Chatham House and Victoria Mitchell, senior maritime analyst at Control Risks in Amsterdam. Thank you both for joining me on the Globalist. France is preparing to vote in two major rounds of municipal elections this weekend, with part one of two happening this Sunday. And no more. Polarized in terms of political loyalties is the capital Paris, where 12 years of mayor Anne Hidalgo has left a deep division between left and right. To tell us more, I'm joined now by Anne Elisabeth Moutte, who's a French journalist and columnist for the Daily Telegraph in Paris. Good morning, Anne. Elizabeth, good to have you with us.
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Good morning.
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So this is part one of two this weekend, right yes.
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First round and next round is next Sunday.
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Explain what is going to happen this Sunday, please.
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We are going to know exactly how complicated this race is going to be, because you can stay on for the next round, the one that finishes off the whole race. And in the municipal elections, as long as you've got 10% of the vote, it looks like five people may get 5% of the vote. And that makes things complicated. You've got two left wingers and one centrist and two right wingers, one more moderate than the other. The leading is the previous mayor's deputy, Emmanuel Gregoire, who wants to go on with the same mixture of green policies and so 40% of social housing in the capital. And against her goes Rashid Adati, a former minister of Nicolas Sarkozy and the former council of Minister of Emmanuel Macron, who has been by all accounts an extremely good mayor of Arrondissement in Paris, but who's the divisive and controversial character. And then the others are even more interesting. You've got, on the one hand, somebody made a joke and they said, can you get more French than having. In the Paris municipal race, the mistress of the far right party leader going against the mistress of the far left of. And that is actually happening, leaving the centrist, Pierre Rose Macel, very much sort of behind everyone. Sahraq Nassau, the partner of Eric Zemour of the party, is leading a textbook campaign that is really impressive. She's gone from 4% of projected votes to 13%. And against her is Sophia Shikiroux, who is the partner of Jean Luc Melanchon, the leader of France, on Double La Prince en Famil. And she's pulling more or less the same thing, a little less. So that is going to be an amusing way.
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Excellent. It sounds rather fruity. Now, of these, who do we believe is actually going to sort of like, make it through, given the fact that we mentioned that Emmanuel Gregoire, the sort of the natural successor of Ang Hidalgo, and Rashida Dati, the disciple of Nicolas Sarkozy, are the two ones who are likely to go through. But it does expose effectively just how completely divided Parisian voters are in terms of who they want to be their next mayor.
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That is very true. And the question is, suppose Sophia Chiquirou, who is the far left lady, does get above 10%, which is possible, very possible. In that case, Emmanuel Gregoire is in trouble because the left vote is split, and the contender, because she's polling less overall, is Rashida Dassi, who has said that, no, she will never ally herself with Sahag Nassau. Except that she might, considering that she could make the right win for the first time since Jacques chirac left in 95. So all of this becomes interesting.
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Tell us a little bit more about the wider picture across France. Because the one thing that we are not seeing is natural successes to Emmanuel Macron. Yes, this is. This is an important year in terms of setting the scene for the presidential race next year. But the fact is, is that when Emmanuel Macron came to the scene years ago and effectively said he was going to explode the political landscape, this effectively didn't happen.
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Actually, he has. It is a mess that we've never seen before. He split. He is the one who has split the right because he came from the left. He was a minister of Hollande. But in the end he kept on saying there's no longer left and right. But all that did was to push to the extremes, both the right and the left wing vote. Because it turned out that the minute the bloom was off the road, in terms of. Is Emmanuel Macron the best president ever? Which he thought he is, he was. Would be, you know, past, present, future. He always thinks it. Then you found yourself, where do I find someone I want to vote for? So that's really interesting. The other thing is, if you look at the various candidates of next year, one of them is a mayor, a former prime minister, Edouard Philippe. He's the sort of center right candidate, he's reasonable and he comes up top a popularity contest in French politicians. And the only real problem is that he may not win in his own city at Loire, even though he's been a mayor for a long time, until he became the prime minister. So when the dust has settled after the second round, we can start making predictions, but right now it is complicated. The interesting. And the other thing is that the National Rally is supposed to have a massive boost from disgruntled sort of electorate. Exactly like reform. And the Greens are getting a massive boost. Both extremes in Richard. But the National Rally is not very well organized and they are not fielding as many candidates as there are cities and towns of note. This is very complicated because you've got 36,000 towns and cities in France, so it's very murky.
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And Elizabeth Moute, French journalist and columnist of the Daily Telegraph, joining us on the line from Paris. Thank you so much. Much still to come on today's program,
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he talks about his banquet table and it's a bloody big one. Yeah, we're all invited as different departments to sit at this table.
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We'll be hearing from the Oscar nominated Costume designer Kate Hawley on working with Guillermo del Toro on Frankenstein. Stay with us on the globalist
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craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Let's continue with today's newspapers now. Normally Paul Waldy, Europe correspondent at the Globe and Mail is in the studio with me with the papers and his analysis. Today he's in Oslo. Good morning, Paul.
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Good morning.
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What takes you to Norway?
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Well, I'm here actually at the airport waiting for the arrival of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. He's going to spend spent three days here in Norway. He's meeting the German Chancellor Merch, obviously the Norwegian Prime Minister Storr, and also the Prime Ministers of Iceland, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. They're kind of having a Nordic Summit here over the weekend. So it's, I think it's a chance for Carney to try and not only talk about broadening Canada's trade ties, but also Arctic security. Because another thing they're going to do here is watch a big NATO exercise that's taking place in, in northern Norway and finland involving about 25,000 troops. It's kind of an event that happens every couple of years called Cold Response. So it's all about Arctic security and
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they're all coming to have a look at it. So that's quite an unusual development, isn't it?
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Yeah, I mean it is. I mean Mertz is going to be up there with Starmer. Sorry, with Carney. Starmer's not going with Kearney and Storr. And yeah, they're going to participate or watch these exercises. They're going to talk to some of the soldiers. So it's the exercises go on for a week or so. So it's quite a big operation. But it is interesting that these three leaders are going to take part and at least watch what's going on.
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Do we know why exactly they've decided to choose this moment? Because while the focus of the world is on the Middle east, then the issues of security in the Arctic region do not go away, do they?
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They don't. I mean, it is interesting that they've chosen this moment to sort of have the summit. I think they, they planned it to coincide with this NATO exercise and kind of to show that they are taking Arctic security seriously. Certainly in Canada's case, it's been a huge issue because we have such a vast territory in the Arctic, it's almost impossible for Canada to patrol it, let alone protect it. So I think there's always been a concern in Canada, but that's, of course, come to the forefront given Trump's ambitions, shall we say, about Greenland and his threats to annex not only Greenland, but even Canada. So I think this is kind of a show of force by these leaders, but it is questionable whether it's going to get overwhelmed by events in the Middle East.
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Okay, let's move on to a quick review of the papers. One thing that we notice in the Financial Times is breaking it now is that the United States is easing Russian oil sanctions as energy prices soar. So you've just mentioned the focus is on the Middle east that is having immediate repercussions on the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and the way that Russia is positioned globally.
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Yeah, I mean, this is an effort by the Trump administration to try and deal with rising oil prices that's obviously hitting consumers in the US and around the world. And I think Trump's becoming acutely aware of just how difficult that's going to be for him. What this will Involve is a 30 day lifting of sanctions that will allow Russian oil that's sitting in tankers offshore to unload that oil and to sell it. That's about 124 million barrels of oil, which is a lot. But in the grand scheme of things, in terms of global consumption, it's not that much. But it will raise questions about financing of Russia's war in Ukraine, how much money this will earn for Russia. The US Is playing that down. But obviously Ukraine and a lot of its allies are going to be saying this is just going to help Russia at the worst possible time.
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Indeed. And the criticism is, as you said, that Russia will suddenly do very, very well out of the misery in the middle.
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Yeah, they're going to make something like $100 million a day off of this sale. And if the price goes higher, they'll make even more. And who knows if this, this lifting of sanctions won't continue longer. I mean, the Trump administration's attitude toward Russia has been pretty lenient thus far, certainly when it comes to Ukraine. And there's no reason to believe that if gasoline prices stay high in the U.S. trump won't say, well, let Russia continue to sell its oil, which will only increase their coffers further and cause more havoc and misery. For Ukraine.
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Indeed. I think the United States has said that this is going to be a temporary, narrowly tailored short term measure that will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government. But from where you're sitting in Oslo, that does actually suggest otherwise.
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Well, it does. I mean, because again, I think the question is, is it temporary? They've said it's 30 days. But will they continue? Will they expand it? They have lifted sanctions already to allow India to buy oil from Russia. Of course, that was something Trump tried to cut out a few months ago in an effort to help Ukraine. But if you're going to open the door to Russia selling more and more oil at the world, it certainly is just going to increase their revenues.
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Let's look at now turn to an article in the Guardian. Here in the United Kingdom, the repercussions of the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador are wide reaching. And from the point of view of sort of like the Globe and Mail, what is the relevance, what is the interest in the way that the prime minister who has indeed apologized for his handling of Peter Mandelson's appointment, how does that resonate with the Canadian audience?
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Well, I think for people in Canada, it just shows you how far and wide and deep and long lasting this Epstein scandal really is. You know, here you have Starmer yet again apologizing for appointing Mandelson as ambassador to Washington because of his ties to Epstein. Questions about how much Starmer knew at the time when he made that appointment horse and fired him. All of the information that's come out since, you know, you gotta wonder how and why and how long this is going to last. And I think for Canadians, it's just, just stunning to see just the repercussions of this and the fact that it's being taken arguably far more seriously in Europe than it is in the US where nobody's been arrested, nobody's really going to jail. And questions really aren't being asked at this kind of higher level. You know, here's Starmer, who had nothing to do with Epstein facing real political problems over this appointment and real questions about his leadership. So I think for Canadians, it's just fascinating just how long this and how far and why this Epstein scandal is going.
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Let's talk about an article in the Times which mentions the use of private jets to ferry people who've been stranded in Dubai.
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Yeah, I think this is fascinating because of course, when you think about flying from Europe to Asia, a lot of those flights have to stop in Abu Dhabi or Dubai or make stops in the Gulf somewhere. Of course, that can't happen now. So a lot of these travelers are looking for ways to get from Asia to Europe. And they're taking some pretty roundabout routes going through the US in some cases through Canada, in some cases spending huge amounts of money. The airlines don't have enough planes to kind of service a lot of these, this extra demand. And now you're seeing prices, you know, it used to be about a thousand pounds I think to fly from Australia to London. Now you're looking at 3, 4, 5,000, even 20,000 if you want to go on business class. Some people are hiring private jets. It's just caused a lot of havoc that I think people didn't think about before. But when you do make those long journeys, often you stop, stop in Dubai, which has become a real hub for air traffic. And that's gone now.
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Paul Waldy, thank you so much and enjoy your trip in Norway. Paul is a Europe correspondent at the Globe and Mail. You're listening to Monocle Radio. Now here's a look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. The price of oil has remained high in Asia, trading at just over $100 a barrel. On Thursday, crude oil finished the day above the $100 mark for the first time since 202022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Cuba's Foreign Ministry has announced the country will soon release 51 prisoners following talks between Cuban diplomats and the Vatican. The ministry described the gesture as a sign of goodwill towards the Holy See. Chile's new right wing government has signed a memorandum with the US to begin cooperating on the supply of critical minerals and rare earths. The move comes a day after the inauguration of President Jose Antonio Cast a Trump ally and the Swedish pole vaulter Armand Duplantis has broken his own world record for the 15th time. The 26 year old cleared 6.31 meters on his first attempt at the Mondo Classic, an event named after him in the Swedish town of Uppsala. And those are the headlines on Monocor Radio. Now for a closer look behind some of the headlines we're following here. And we turn to architecture today. Here's Monocle's Nick Moniz on the winner of this year's Pritzker Prize.
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Chile's Simeon Radic Clark was yesterday announced
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as the winner of this year's Pritzker Prize. The Santiago based designer picked up architecture's
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most high profile award recognizing his body of work that spans more than two decades and is celebrated for its sensitivity
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to place and cultural and social context.
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It's an outlook embodied in projects such
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as Restaurant Macito, which was partially embedded
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in the ground to shelter it from prevailing winds, and Pite House, which was
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oriented to protect it from harsh light. And while the organisation behind the prize has been rocked by its former patron Tom Pritzker, appearing in the Epstein files, its recognition of Radish Clark is still in important.
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The architect has proved time and again
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that his sensitive approach to architecture stands
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up to the test of time.
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And my thanks to Nick Minise for that. You're listening to the Globalist. Now. The world has enjoyed a comparative moment of calm recently, but when it only comes to tariffs, it follows a decision by the Supreme Court in the United States striking down a key part of President Trump's decisions making process, resulting in him imposing a blanket 10% tariffs on imports. But this is by no means the end of the story as the US Is to launch an investigation into some of its trading partners. Well, joining me from Brussels is Rebecca Christie, a senior fellow at Brueghel, host of the Sound of Economics podcast. Good morning, Rebecca.
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Good morning. How are you?
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Very well, thank you. And just interested in knowing what this investigation involves.
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So the Trump administration has introduced a new round of trade investigations under something called section 301 against a range of trading partners which include the European Union, South Korea, Singapore and others. What's interesting about this is that the main reason for this investigation, as they wrote, is the trade surpluses that these countries have toward the U.S. the U.S. trade deficit toward them. So it's a little bit of a departure from past 301 investigations where it's been about a specific sector like digital or other sorts of very specific things. They're just sort of saying generally trade is out of whack and we don't like it, so we're going to do a probe.
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So how do they go about doing a probe when they're essentially the way that you've described it is they're actually looking for trouble.
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Trouble.
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I don't want to prejudge what the administration is doing. I can only say what I read in the complaint or the thing that started the investigations. What I will say is that the US Has a couple of different tools. One of them is called section 232 and that's for strategic industries like steel. And this is something that's been going on. There have been section 232 deals on steel against the EU, against China for quite some time. And 301 has been used for sort of broader complaints of overcapacity which again is usually more specific. This idea that just generally you export more than we do and we don't like it. This is going to be something where the rationale is probably going to emerge on a day by day basis.
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So who actually decides the results of the investigation? Who determines whether the European Union has been engaged in unfair practices?
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The U.S. trade Representative's office will move to the next step of the Section 301 complaint. But, you know, it's trade. There's always room for another conversation. For example, the US did 301 investigations against a number of EU countries. Italy, Austria come to mind. France for their digital services taxes, and then they suspended those because of a global tax deal. And now they're talking about unsuspending them. So trade goes round and round.
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B
And explain to us a little bit about what the reaction's been like from Brussels, given the fact that the European Union is not the only part of the world which has suffered the slings and arrows of the tariffs being rather, dare we say it, unpredictable. The European Union will do what respond in. How can the European Union respond to this?
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So far they've been very measured. We'll wait and see what happens. There have been some pointed references to the trade deal that was struck between the US US and the EU in response to the earlier tariffs. The constant uncertainty is a source of really extra frustration. It's almost like it's not enough for the Trump administration to just throw tariffs and trade sanctions out there, but they're changing constantly. So it's hard for trading partners even to know what they're up against, let alone decide whether it's fair or not.
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Well, listening to that was Peter Landers, Asia business and Finance Editor at the Wall Street Journal in Singapore. Very good afternoon to you, peter. It's what, 15? It's just gone half past three in the afternoon. Where you viewer?
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That's right.
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Just explain to us, I mean, how your part of the world has reacted to this announcement.
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J
I think it's within expectations. And the main request of countries like Japan and South Korea is, okay, we agreed last year to 15% tariffs that would have been imposed under the powers that have now been struck down by the Supreme Court. Okay, you're going to bring in new tariffs.
- [35:47]
F
Tariffs.
- [35:47]
J
You're going to talk about 301, maybe 232. Fine. Just don't go beyond what you already, what we already agreed to do last year.
- [35:56]
B
I mean, what we've just heard from Rebecca Christie is that there is always room for another Another conversation. But it does get quite exhausting, doesn't it? And indeed regionally divisive when the United States decides that it can pick and choose what kind of tariffs and what level it can impose on various individual countries. Countries.
- [36:16]
J
That's right. And I think resolving the uncertainty is part of the point here to say, look, we already agreed on something last year, maybe we didn't like it. We certainly didn't expect to be paying 15% tariffs under the Biden administration, for example. But this is President Trump. He calls himself tariff man. We agreed to that. Let's try to stick to something like that so we don't have this back and forth. And they, I think, would prefer not to really negotiate about this all year. They'd like to get it settled fairly soon.
- [36:44]
B
And indeed, I mean, how does the region respond? I mean, the European Union has the strength of numbers. All 27 member states can sit down and try and work out what it is going to do. But when you have very, very vague ideas of what this investigation section 301 unfair trade practice probe actually looks like, do you get a sense that various individual countries within the region sit down and say we are going to deal with this as a group or, or do nations feel as if, you know, if you're in Singapore, if you're in Seoul, if you're in Delhi, that you're going to think, well, I'm going to have to, I'm having to play this by myself.
- [37:21]
J
That's the way it worked last year and I think it'll work like that this year too. There isn't any Asian Union or in defense areas. We used to talk about it, Asian, NATO, maybe it will exist someday. But right now it's pretty much every country for itself. And they did okay last year. Of course, China has, has a lot of tools, a lot of cards to play in negotiations. Being a huge economy itself with control over things like rare earths. Japan and South Korea agreed to make large investments, hundreds of billions of dollars of investments in the United States. That's something that they can offer to do so they have the ability to negotiate on their own. Again, I think they don't want to resurrect too many of these issues. The other thing that they have on their behalf is, is that the basis for some of these new tariffs is a little bit questionable. And Singapore is actually challenging the numbers that the United States trade representative used in its initial sally in this area, saying that they got the numbers wrong and you really don't have any basis to impose tariffs.
- [38:25]
C
On us.
- [38:26]
J
So there's a little bit of legal maneuvering to be expected as well.
- [38:29]
B
Peter Landers, Asia business and finance editor at the Wall Street Journal, on the line from Singapore. Thank you. And thanks also to Rebecca Christie from Broyco in Brussels. You're listening to the Globalist live on Monocle Radio. It's Friday, so we know what's just about to happen. Here's Andrew Muller with what we learned.
- [38:57]
D
We learned this week of something of an evolution in American messaging at times of war from, for example, this, the
- [39:06]
H
hopes and prayers of liberty loving people everywhere march with you.
- [39:10]
D
Or this.
- [39:11]
H
We cherish freedom, yes, we cherish self
- [39:15]
B
determination for all people. Yes, we abhor the political murder of
- [39:21]
H
any state by another and the bodily
- [39:25]
B
murder of any people by gangsters of
- [39:29]
D
whatever ideology or even this.
- [39:32]
H
Our nation, this generation, will lift a
- [39:35]
J
dark threat of violence from our people
- [39:37]
D
and our future to this.
- [39:39]
H
What will you do without freedom?
- [39:41]
C
Maverick's in doubt. You can't conceive of what I'm capable of. Finishing this fight.
- [39:51]
D
Yeah, that being a mashup of assorted high octane Hollywood hokum set to an annoying disco riff and posted to official White House social media channels beneath the all caps headline justice the American Way, accompanied by emojis depicting the Stars and Stripes. And. Not only are we not making this up, or indeed the one in which senior leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran are depicted as 10 pins being mown down by a Stars and Stripes spangled bowling ball to a soundtrack of Freebird by Lynyrd Skynyrd, We are unable to overstate the degree to which we wish we were making it up. We also learned, if we're being picky, that whichever Red Bull overdoing intern selected the movie clips had kind of missed the point of pretty much every film included, e. G. Four starters that in Braveheart, the plucky native resistance to an overbearing foreign hegemon are depicted as the good guys. But we learned, as we so very often seem to, that ability to think things even a fraction of the way through is not a skill highly prized by the incumbent U.S. administration, as we learn that prior to embarking on whatever the heck this is, they appear not to have consulted a map.
- [41:22]
B
New images near the Strait of Hormuz off Iran, where new attacks are now sending oil prices on another wild ride
- [41:30]
D
today from which they might have learned just how much of the global economy is dependent upon the Strait of Hormuz, the pinch point at the entrance to the Persian Gulf and the energy supplies therein the blockading and or marauding footing of which was always roughly the most obvious thing Iran could be expected to do in extremis. We learned, however, that there was a straightforward solution. And we learned this from no less an authority than Fox News teleprompter reader and probable next Secretary of State, unless Trump appoints a horse or possibly a heron. Brian Kilmeade this is fear. I'm still going to insure your ships.
- [42:06]
B
So go through the strait and you
- [42:09]
D
know, that's just point part of it.
- [42:10]
B
If you want to diminish the Iranian threat, if you want to make sure that this ends up with complete Iran capitulation, sow some guts and go through that strait.
- [42:19]
D
From which we learned that among the highest paid people in US media are people who cannot understand or are willing to pretend on television that they cannot understand why anyone might be at all unkeen to sail a huge slow unarmoured vessel filled to the gunwales with flammable cargo through a mine laced narrows also currently serving as a shooting gallery for drones and missiles. What could possibly go wrong? And so forth. But. We learned that the President had more pressing concerns, specifically the state of his cabinet's footwear.
- [42:59]
C
Interesting. Tell me more.
- [43:02]
D
By which we do not mean that he has begun insisting that a wardrobe in the Oval Office is fitted with sandals, but give him another six months. We learned that President Trump had begun pressing a particular shoe upon his subordinates.
- [43:17]
B
New reports say that President Trump has been gifting his inner circle matching dress shoes and he expects everyone to wear them even if they don't fit.
- [43:24]
D
We learned, however, upon close scrutiny of recent footage. Footage, footage, you see what we did there of Marco Rubio, 41, that some are too terrified or tactful to tell the President of the abysmal gap between heel and sock, or too guileless to simply order a pair that actually do fit and put the pair the President gave them on ebay or in the bin. And so we learned to our regret that Trump did not think to present his underlings with more appropriate shoes, that is very long red ones. But. We learned that amid this week's enervating gloom, we were to be blessed by the Armed Forces of the United Kingdom with a ray of redeeming whimsy in the form of this guy.
- [44:18]
H
I'm Group Captain Sandy San Lunds. I am the UK Defence Attache to the UAE.
- [44:22]
D
We learned that, yes, the UK's Defence Attache to the United actual Arab Emirates is Group Captain. That name again, Sandy Sandilands, which is just Unimpeachably tremendous. Can I get some general muttered agreement? We have not learned as we did not wish to be disappointed upon checking whether or not the UK's military representative in Norway is called Snowy Winters, in Australia called Dusty Bush, or in France called Rowdy accordions. For Monocle Radio, I'm Andrew Miller.
- [45:01]
B
Thank you, Andrew. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio.
- [45:08]
A
Iq, EQ and AI, three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft.
- [45:37]
C
Craft.
- [45:46]
B
8:45 on the Croisette in Cannes, which is where we head now, because the sunshine has finally arrived at mipim, the annual international property jamboree on the south coast of France. Joining me now from Cannes is Monocle's editor in chief, Andrew Tuck. A very good morning to to you, Andrew. How's it looking where you.
- [46:05]
H
Well, I'm in my hotel room now, but I was just up on the roof having a bit of brioche, as you do here in France of the morning. And it looked rather sunny looking out over, over the, over the rooftops, I must say. I've been here five days. It's the first time I'd managed to actually make it to the breakfast because we've been packed with an incredible schedule over at the the Palais, which hosts Nipin. But can I to say, I feel really not that it's very fair coming on after Andrew Muller and his dusty bowl jokes. I've got quite a high bar to meet now to entertain people over the next five minutes.
- [46:39]
B
Don't worry, Sandy Sanderlands will wait for another day. But look, you are the designated standard bearer for urbanism at Monocle. And you know MIPIM is called the Global Urban Festival. So we must ask, are you feeling particularly festive?
- [46:56]
H
Well, I am. Although I'm not sure everybody who rocked up here was as jolly as they'd hoped to be this week. Look, it's, it's a festival with property developers, architects, investors all pouring into the city. Now, as I said, most of the convention and the events take place inside the Palais. You'll have seen this during the Cannes Film Festival. It's the same venue that hosts that. But along the quasi were all these famous hotels are. Every room, every apartment seems to be taken by a developer, a property company who's Doing meetings, doing deals. So it takes over the town. And the problem this year is the war in the Gulf is making people nervous because they thought they were just on the point where probably interest rates were all going to come down across the world. Now they're less sure. How does that oil price feed back into the price of the, the materials they need to build skyscrapers? They're nervous of that. And they're also just nervous that lots of them have projects in the Gulf. Will they now get paused? Or they're dependent on cash coming from the Saudis, from the Emiratis investing in their cities. And they're also nervous that there'll be a kind of a disruption to the mood and maybe some of that will also slow down.
- [48:10]
B
Indeed. Because no mayor wants the pause button to be put on any development, do they?
- [48:16]
H
No. And there is an incredible roster of mayors that we met here during Mipin. And I think that one of the funny things is how quickly people begin to price in risk. So the countries in Southern Europe had already been on a bit of a roll. We've seen incredible investment in recent years in cities like Madrid and Lisbon. And I think we're only going to see more of that. It was interesting yesterday hearing one of the Portuguese people we interviewed, interviewed, talking, talking up in a big way that Portugal is the safe place to live. It's the safest place on the map. We don't have disputes with our neighbors. We don't have any problems. So you can see people already know the, the value of safety as a, as a marketing tool as well. So there's lots of kind of shuffling that's going to go on in, in the world over the next few weeks. But the mayor said, for example, that we, we met with the, the Mayor of Rome day, actually. Fascinating. Speak with the mayor of Rome, the mayor of Genoa, a woman who used to be a hammer thrower in the Olympics of all things. But they're all super ambitious about Italian cities. A large amount of funds coming in to reboot cities make them incredibly modern. In a city like Rome, you see how much it's investing simply in new tramlines, lines, in greening the city, in new parks. But they also want to be centers for data, for knowledge. And I think for many people in the world who think of Italian cities as all being about the Coliseum and the ancient past, there's a real generational step change happening in these cities. And that's because of the property developers as well and the money coming in that you need to turn around these cities.
- [50:02]
B
Who else has impressed you at mipim? Who's got the best pavilion billion?
- [50:07]
H
Well, do you know what, can I just say that, you know, you'd think for a bunch of people who are like in using design and architecture and selling a vision, because a lot of this is essentially B2B, they don't make much of an effort. My God. Some of the stands are, some of the, some of the stands are the most boring things you've ever seen. Some poor person sat behind the desk hand handing out brochures and while others have like such fantastical representations of projects, you, you, you have no clue that will ever be built. But there was some, there are some very good ones. One of my favorites was Albania. Now they, it's backed by the state, but they, they employed an architect to design it and he took on the idea of just making a record shop. So instead of having like pamphlets, every one of the 82 projects being being promoted was made as a record sleeve. And inside the record sleeve was all the information about the project. They flew over an Albanian deep dj. They made an album that you could take away with pop music and traditional music from the 1920s right up to today, plus soundscapes from nature and from the cities. They just really got it together. And, and there was another one which is eon, which is a really beautiful project up on the Black Sea. And there they're working with Snowheader, this amazing Oslo based architecture company. And they asked instead of the architects just to be on a map, they asked them to design the pavilion. Pavilion. And at the center of it they've got this huge round table. And every day, twice a day, they would have like 30 people come for a round table discussion about architecture, about design. They had like a Turkish kitchen and it was, it was so good because they weren't selling anything. They didn't even scan your barcode as you on your lanyard as you went in. They're just like, just come and talk to us and, and that those two stood out for me as like, come on guys. If you're, if you're coming to these, it's please make a bit of an effort.
- [51:58]
B
Andrew Tuck, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Cannes. You're listening to the Globalist. Now the great and good of the film industry descend on Hollywood's Dolby Theatre this Sunday as the Academy Awards return once again. One of the favorites for the costumes design category is Kate Hawley. She was behind the neo gothic gowns and bedraggled fur capes of Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein. Well, Kate Hawley spoke to Chronicle's Lily Austin, who began by asking her about
- [52:30]
A
the inspiration for the costumes in terms of Frankenstein. I was very familiar with the novel and revisited that when Guillermo told me we were making his version of it. And then, you know, really, my main inspiration and the start of everything always comes from the script and your director's vision and all the themes of nature and theology and, you know, the mythologies and that are all there in the script that he's built. And all the imagery is sort of sitting there and it's. It was a matter of sort of pulling it out and sort of, you know, working with all the other departments and then sort of building on that language and finding and discovering ways to interpret it. And there was this wonderful sense of melancholy and sort of dreamlike tone. And I think that was the leading quality that then informed how we resolved all those other images in the form of textiles or silhouette and detailing. Really, it all came from that. It was about, you know, sort of the dream of it, really, and on this sort of operatic scale that he was, you know, building. He talks about his banquet table, and it's a bloody big one. We're all invited, as different departments to sit at this table. So it's a rich meal to get through.
- [53:40]
B
Absolutely. His films are always very cohesive, but in this one in particular, I thought, wow, the costumes, the set, everything really works together. So I wasn't surprised when I read that you're also a set designer. I can imagine that must help in kind of making that cohesive look and feel of the film.
- [54:02]
A
Yeah, I think so, because you're always dealing with character within a landscape, whether it's whatever that landscape is, artificial or real, you know, so it's the world that you're building and the tones and so, you know, I work very closely with Tamara. I also studied, you know, I did a bit of scenic painting at English National Opera. I did all the night shifts, so I learned a bit, you know, about colour. And so all of those things have informed how I work with Guillermo and through Dan Louston, the lighting designer and cinematographer, as well as Tamara. And so we're always echoing each other's work. We're sort of painting across between our different departments, in a way. And Guillermo is such a. You know, it's such a big vision he has for this world. So I kind of liken it to all sort of, really. We're different elements of his orchestra, you know, different sections of his orchestra. So we're all, you know, at times we would come together and. And work towards one image, and at other times he's elevating different parts of the different departments to tell the story. So it works because we're collaborating. There's no room to be an island, and he makes himself so totally available. And then we do the same with each other and always being informed what the other is doing.
- [55:09]
B
You mentioned color, and I was really struck by the use of color in the film. I think I ordered. When I saw the young Frankenstein's mother in that amazing red outfit with the red veil on her face, it was just so striking. Clearly, this is a period piece and there was period dress, but this kind of thing, to me felt quite modern. Were you consciously kind of trying to achieve that kind of blend of the two?
- [55:35]
A
It's a good question, actually, because that's one of the very first things. When Guillermo and I were talking about Frankenstein, he was very insistent that we don't get locked in sort of an old world. And because of the nature of Victor's pursuit of his muse and that he wanted this contemporary feel, this modern feel, and it was a directive in terms of the wardrobe, that it doesn't sit in a sort of Dickensian world, that we elevate it to reflect that, really. So, you know, that was definitely a part of it, but we found, hence finding the language through it. And you talk about that red veil, and that's a classic way for Guillermo to open a story. You know, you establish the operatic language right from the beginning and then that becomes the through line. That red veil, you know, becomes the stained, bloodied hand. On young Victor Frankenstein, it becomes the glove. Then on the adult Victor Frankenstein, the effigy in the coffin is repeated in Elizabeth's work. So you have a through line that Guillermo's establishing with the color red.
- [56:30]
B
And you also collaborated with Tiffany's for the film. Will you tell us a bit about the.
- [56:37]
A
That was kind of a wonderful moment. It was one of those classic sort of throwaway sentences at the beginning. It'd never been in my sort of dream that that would even be possible, but I think I remember sort of throwing down some stuff at some point, going, oh, we need some jewellery. And then sort of, you know, it's always, how do you do this? And Steve Newman, who was there from Netflix, actually opened the door and introduced us to Catherine, who works with Tiffany's a lot. Catherine van der Veen. And, you know, I think on both sides, it was like a sort of odd date night. You know, neither knew what the other was going to get out of it, you know, of had looked online and went, oh, you know, I'm not sure if the lock bracelet or whatever is going to be particularly useful for us. And, you know, and they'd gone, oh, Frankenstein, that's the one with the bolts in the head. So, you know, it was sort of like this weird sort of date night. And then we met online and had meetings and we showed drawings and really it was the vision of Guillermo that unlocks the door, because Guillermo was doing this hugely romantic, operatic, rich, rich world.
- [57:33]
F
And.
- [57:34]
A
And even the language of love, in its odd way, sort of fitted with Tiffany's, you know. So they came on board and it was at that moment, I remember my crew, you know, when we told them, they were sort of so thrilled. And it was. It meant that there's a certain shared love of craftsmanship and appreciation for what the other was bringing. So it never felt, never felt things were being imposed on us. It was, you know, the language of what they had in the archives. I mean, that was really the biggest moment for me was looking at the archives and seeing all the things that I was not familiar with, you know, the art glass and the jewellery and the nature in the forms of those scarab necklaces and that. And it fitted Guillermo's language so perfectly and supported the story and the character of Elizabeth so perfectly. Sometimes things just open the door and they keep presenting more and more wonderful possibilities. And it was like that. It was just another wonderful. They brought their certain element of magic for fairy dust to the project and, you know, it was a. Supported everything that Guillermo was trying to do. So it was a really wonderful, wonderful experience.
- [58:36]
B
That was Kate Hawley, Oscar nominee for best costume design for Frankenstein. She was talking to Monocle's Lily Austin. We'll have more on the Oscars night on Monday's edition of the Globalist. But for today's bread, Globalist, well, that's all the time. We have the warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers Angelica Jobson, Chris Chermack and Anita Riota. Our researcher is Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager is Elliot Greenfield, with editing assistance from Mariella Bevan. After the headlines. More music on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London. The Globalist is back at the same time on Monday, but for now, from me, Emma Nelson. Goodbye. Thanks for listening. Have a great weekend.
- [59:36]
A
With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.