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Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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You're listening to THE Globalist, first broadcast on the 12th of November, 2025 on Monocor Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, after 20 years of elections, has Iraq's political process found its feet?
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I extend my congratulations to the resilient.
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And courageous Iraqi people who have made great sacrifices to ensure that power and decision making remain in the hands of the people.
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Parliamentary elections are taking place at a pivotal moment for Iraq, with Iran and the US vying for influence. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, the European Commission steps up its intelligence systems, but will the bloc be better protected?
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Plus, Abu Dhabi has been working steadfastly for over, you know, a couple of decades on this. I want to call it like cultural renaissance.
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We'll be in Abu Dhabi as it enjoys a resurgence in interest in the arts world. Plus, the papers and the latest news from aviation, too. That's all coming up on THE Globalist live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. The world's biggest Web warship, the USS Gerald R. Ford, has arrived in Latin America. The Colombian army has carried out airstrikes against FARC dissidents in the Amazon region. And Australia's spy chief has warned that hackers linked to the Chinese government are targeting the country's critical infrastructure. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, images from Iraq in the last few days have been dominated by pictures of citizens young and old, smart, smiling broadly to the camera with an index finger triumphantly stained with vivid blue ink. The country's just held parliamentary elections and they're happening at a pivotal moment with Iran and the US Both vying for influence. Well, I'm joined now from Istanbul by Ruth Michelson, journalist and Middle east correspondent, regular voice here on Monocle radio, and by Dr. Saad Jawad, who's an Iraqi political science scientist. Good morning to you both. Good morning, Saad. So if you could possibly bring us up to date with what you believe has been happening in the last couple of days, because they've been voting for several days, haven't they?
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Yeah, there was the special, what they call special voting for the armed forces, where most of the violations happened because, you know, nobody could control these people, and they are always under the control of the government. They vote for the government parties. But yesterday, where the normal elections took place, there were some violations that one could regard them as minor ones. Only two or three incidents in which armed, I mean, firearms were used.
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B
Ruth Saad was talking there a moment ago about how there were, yes, there were violations of the, of the electoral process, but there was nothing like what we've seen in the past. What have you heard?
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F
Well, I mean, I think the big focus in terms of this election is actually in the end, it's about turnout. So the Iraqi Electoral Commission have they said that they've estimated the turnout in this election at about 54%, but an analysis of this shows that it's based on registered voters rather than eligible voters. So real turnout is actually closer to around 38%, which is not very high. So it really sort of represents the fact that this is not expected to be a change election, that there is a mood among voters, that this is maybe some new faces, but basically the same set of interests that are being represented. Even so, one thing that we have seen at this election is more and more young people, 40% of candidates that are under 40 running in this election, 15% of the candidates under 35. And so it seems like the protests that we saw about five years ago, mass protests, youth protests about the economy, about a sense of discontent that that has resulted in a wealth of young people running for office. But at the same time, in an election where there isn't really a kind of widespread trust in the political process.
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B
In Iraq, who Saad are these new young voices and faces? Because we've seen the Shia cleric Muqtada Al Sada, whose group won the most seats in 2021 but is not stand, has told his supporters to boycott the poll.
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E
Yeah, this is one of the major things, and it's a pity that he is not taking place. I mean, because he has the most popular support and he could really stand in the parliament against corruption, although a lot of his people are corrupt. But he could influence his supporters to stand against corruption. But he chose again to stand. And this is the problem. And I think it's negative things in the Iraqi election. Yes, they say that there was a very big participation, but it's a contradiction because at the beginning, everywhere, the participation was between 19 and 22%. Now they say it's 55%. I think there was some manipulation in these results, but I think if what matters is the results, how long this parliament will take to form the government to choose the President of the Republic, how they would choose the Prime Minister, these are the things that matter. Otherwise this result does not mean anything until we see the Parliament convened and go to the process of choosing the government and president. And what are the divisions in this Parliament?
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B
And indeed, I mean, just staying with you, Saad, just explain to us a little bit briefly, if you wouldn't mind, about how power is carved up in Iraq and who runs what it's what we have Shia parties and blocs holding a majority at the moment in the current legislature. But there's divisions as well because the presidency goes to the Kurds, the premiership goes to the Shias, and then the speaker of of Parliament goes to the Sunnis. So there is already this organization of division of power.
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E
Yeah, this is not constitutional, but it's a consensus between them two. The whole campaigns for the elections were concentrated on Shiism, Sunnism and Kurdish feelings. There was nothing new in that. But actually the parliament, once it's convened, it has to choose the prime minister, sorry, the head of the Parliament and then it has to choose the President of the Republic. And then the President of the Republic will ask the representative of the biggest group or bloc in the Parliament to form the government. All these processes are mentioned in the constitution, but all of these processes were broken in previous elections. The Prime Minister now, for example, is not from the Parliament before they have chosen a Prime minister, didn't even participate in the election. So it's a sort of external influence that decides who is going to be Prime Minister and president. And this mainly the Prime Minister, of course, and the head of the Parliament. And this influence is Iranian or American who is going to be more influential in these right for force.
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B
Ruth, just take that a little further for us that you have the United States and Iran now vying for power. In what way?
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Well, I mean, primarily it's about some push and pull over the role of Iranian backed militias in Iraq more broadly. But this has been an election where almost every single one of these militias has run candidates for parliament. And that basically gives them access to some of the patronage systems that have been accused of corruption and kind of generalized money in politics. So we've seen these tensions coming out. You know, the Secretary of State, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio last month talked about an urgency in disarming the Iran backed militias. Donald Trump has appointed a new envoy for Iraq, Mark Zavaya, who has been really pushing this message. And, you know, this has essentially been seen as a message to Iraqi officials. And at the same time, the Iranians directly have pushed back with the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman talking about how it's unacceptable that there is foreign interference in Iraq's election. This even caused a little bit of back and forth with the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, who called these comments provocative and said that Tehran should not be getting involved in Iraqi affairs. But I mean, we've seen for years that there has been enormous Iranian influence in Iraqi politics. And so this election in many ways is also a test of how Iran can maintain that influence, given that regionally we've seen that shift enormously in the past two years.
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Saad We've seen what we're now 20 years on since elections resumed in Iraq in the form that they take now. How far may we say that democracy has come in Iraq and how much has political autonomy been an issue given the fact that, as you and Ruth have both spoken about, the fact that international influence is profound?
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You know, the problem is with elections that the United States, when they introduced this sort of democracy to Iraq, they made the people think that democracy is election, but nobody spoke what the result of the election because corruption is still there, foreign influence is still there, and nobody is doing anything to to end these negative issues. So election itself, it's a good practice, but it's not democracy. Democracy is, I mean, no parliamentary, one parliamentarian was put to trial or to account for his corruption. Nothing of this happened. No minister was put to, I mean, was asked about his corruption or was fired from his position because of his corruption and put in prison. I mean, the law is not being completely used to decide who is corrupt and what is to be done. I mean, people are very happy. They see their representative between two brackets in the parliament. But what is the parliament doing? Nobody is judging this, no legal supervision over this practice. I mean, this is the problem in Iraq. You have to have some institutions that inspect and supervise the work of the parliament and the government. There is no supervision over the government or over the parliament. And this is the main problem.
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Dr. Saad Jawad, Iraqi political scientist, and Ruth Michelson, journalist and Middle east correspondent, joining us from Istanbul. Thank you both for joining us on the globalist. It's 8:13 in Brussels, 7:13am here in London. Now, the European Union is to tighten its spy network with the EU Commissioner Ursula Fonda, Lyon, accusing the creation, sorry, announcing, I should say the creation of a new intelligence body. The plan is to hire officials from across the block's agencies to gather and collate information. Well, Dr. Marion Messmer is a senior research fellow in international security at Chatham House here in London. She joins me this morning from Brussels. Good morning, Namarian.
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Good morning. And I should say that I'm not a spy. So that is, of course, what a spy would say.
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B
We're explaining. Glad to hear it. But as you would say, we will never know what is wrong. I mean, the fact that there is a creation of a spy network, a new spy network from the EU Commission suggests that there is something wrong with the existing system.
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G
I'm not sure that there's necessarily something wrong with the existing system. And it's more that the European Union's role in European security has changed quite a lot over the last three years. So to me, this seems like because the commission has taken more of a central role in setting security and defense strategy and policy for the European Union as a whole, they're also realizing that they need much better intelligence about what kind of threats European states are facing. And if you put this together with the slow decoupling of the United States from Europe, then you realize that European states might actually feel that they perhaps don't have as much information anymore as they did at one point when they felt that they could completely rely on the United States, because the US Simply has the biggest intelligence machinery globally and has traditionally alerted allies of relevant threats that they might be facing. Whereas in Europe, you have a bit more specialization where states have regionally really good intelligence, but not necessarily such comprehensive intelligence as the US Might have. So I think coordinating the intelligence that's coming into national governments and using 600 professionals that have worked for a long time in the national intelligence services will probably help the Commission to have a bit more of a comprehensive picture of all the various intelligence strands in the European Union and all the threats that the European Union might be facing.
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B
Was there a moment when the European Union realized that, that the United States could not be relied on, relied upon? I mean, there has been that the narrative that's come from Washington is of profound skepticism, shall we say from the likes of Donald Trump. But at what point did the, did Europe go actually, no, we have to do this ourselves now?
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Well, I imagine that it was probably quite a turning point a few months ago when the United States threatened to cut Ukraine off from intelligence assessments, because intelligence is not just used for threat monitoring for sort of future threats or medium term threats, but it's also really important if, as in the case of Ukraine, you are in an ongoing war, because Ukraine relied on US Intelligence and especially US Space capabilities to target Russian targets. And so European states would be similarly reliant on the US because they haven't necessarily got the same infrastructure if they were to be in a conflict situation. So I think this is essentially part of a general development in Europe to become much more autonomous and to be able to stand on our own feet a little more.
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B
And with this standing on their own two feet, this must in reality be something to do or highly driven by what's been happening in neighboring Ukraine with the Russian full scale invasion. The fact that there have been drones popping up, incurring deep into European Union airspace, has that pushed things along?
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G
I'm sure that's also a factor because I guess it depends a bit on where these drones originate, right? So if some of these drones have been smuggled into the European Union before, they are then launched, and there could be a sense that if you have a tighter intelligence network, perhaps you can intercept some of these a little bit earlier. But I think it's, as you say, it has to do with, with how the threat environment in Europe has changed, how things just feel a lot more tense. And these various other threats that are popping up that are connected to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, whether that's drones, whether that's other types of sabotage that we've seen, you know, where warehouses or railway lines or whatever else it might be are set on fire or damaged in other ways, all of those are the kind of threats that are going to continue to be very present in Europe and that we've not really been very used to dealing with. And so a more coordinated intelligence service could certainly help address some of these threats.
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B
There is a print underpinning this. There is the principle of intelligence sharing happening freely among European Union nations. Is there any sense that any individual countries are going to push back against this?
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G
Well, this announcement is very new, so we haven't heard much yet. But I do expect that this isn't going to be entirely popular, in part because whenever the Commission tries to centralize defense and security functions in the European Union, there are some states that have concerns with that. And then there are, of course, European Union member states that are much closer to Russia, like for example, Hungary, that may not want to share intelligence for that reason. But then there's also states that traditionally have seen intelligence and anything to do with national security as a very sovereign thing, that they are therefore a little more hesitant to share and France would, for example, fall into that bucket where they might have concerns about sharing certain things, perhaps in part because they don't necessarily want states like Hungary to have access to it, but also in part because they don't want to trade away some of their sovereignty. But I should also point out that there is already intelligence sharing and intelligence coordination that takes place both through the European External Action Service, but also through NATO. So this isn't completely new in the sense that it's never been done before. I think this is just meant to make sure that the European Commission, as an important central function, has access to the intelligence that it needs. So hopefully they will be able to also work with some of the existing structures in the European External Action Service and perhaps even in NATO, so that the EU member states that are also involved in those activities feel like it is such a new thing or such a shock to their system to coordinate in such a way.
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Dr. Marion Mesmer, senior Research Fellow in International Security at Chatham House, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Brussels. You're listening to the Globalist.
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Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS Chief Investment office houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS Banking is our craft.
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7:20 Here in London, which means it's newspaper time. Let's have let's hear from Phil Clark, professor of International Politics at SE University of London. Good morning, Phil. How are you?
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Very well.
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What's happening in your world? Because you used to live somewhere else and now you live here or do you still live somewhere else?
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H
I'm back and forth a lot between London and Cape Town these days and at the moment I seem to have the seasons wrong because it's getting very cold here and it's beautiful and sunny and glorious in Cape Town.
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B
And whose fault is that that you're in the wrong place?
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H
That is entirely mine. I've made a terrible Just for the.
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Record, what have you spotted in the I hope you make some better choices when it comes to what's in the papers. What have you spotted?
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H
We'll see if that's the case. I've spotted in the British press this morning lots of discussion about Prime Minister Keir Starmer being in a lot of political trouble. His own party seems to be revolting against him. There is Talk in the Guardian today, potentially of a palace coup against Starmer. Lots of potential replacement prime ministers being vaunted. There seem to be people on maneuvers, and Starmer is very worried and he's trying to rally his allies to see if he can survive beyond the May local elections coming up in a few months.
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B
Now, look, he's not the great. He's not the most charismatic of characters, he's not the most powerful sounding of leaders. And it's taken them a very, very long time to get their feet under the table. Longer, arguably, than many would say, if you've been waiting for, you know, the best part of two decades to get back into government. So what is it that people believe has gone wrong for Keir Starmer?
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H
I think there's just a general picture of a really listless party under his leadership. Labor's tanking in the polls. They don't seem to be able to connect with any part of the electorate. On the left, they're being criticized for failing to tax the rich and now to be threatening tax rises against everyday citizens. They're also being criticised for a very weak policy on Gaza. On the right, they're being targeted particularly on immigration. And we're seeing parties like Reform start to chew into the labor vote on the right. And so this is a really beleaguered party. And Starmer seems to be struggling not only to project any kind of leadership to the nation, but even to project leadership within his own party. They're tanking in the polls. There's a budget coming up very soon. I think there's an expectation the public will react very badly to that budget, particularly because it will continue contain tax rises, which labor said they would not impose on the population at the last election. And so this is causing a lot of grief, particularly for Labor MPs. And one solution may be to get rid of Starmer and see if there's somebody who's more effective as leader.
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B
He's doing well internationally, though, isn't he? Which is a problem which affects many leaders, indeed.
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H
So he does project a sense of stability and calmness in a really volatile global arena. So when he deals with the like of Trump, when he deals with Macron, when he speaks about Ukraine, he's very clear, although he's been very weak on Gaza. So his continued support for Israel and I think very late criticism of the Israeli genocide in Gaza has beleaguered him as well.
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B
Okay, let's move on to a story that you've picked up in Reuters. So the United States, the news that we have heard in the last few hours is that the world's biggest warship, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is now in Latin American waters. It's on its way, joining what US Navy ships and nuclear submarine in the Caribbean. The Venezuelans are wondering what is about to happen next.
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H
The Venezuelans seem to be on a war footing. I think the feeling in Caracas, and if we listen to Maduro's speech yesterday to the nation, was, prepare yourself for US ground forces. And so we're seeing the Venezuelan military in the last 24 hours put onto a war footage. So there's been a redistribution of weapons. There's the deployment of guerrilla factions of the military to 280 positions around the country. This is a state that expects to be invaded, it would seem. And clearly this is in reaction to the US putting this aircraft carrier in the Caribbean in the last day, or so it should be said. It's not only Venezuela that's worried about that U.S. aircraft carrier. This is also causing enormous consternation in Colombia. The two countries have left leaning governments that have always been in the crosshairs for the us. Having a look at the English press this morning about Colombia. The Colombians are also worried about what this aircraft carrier signifies. So the US is causing real panic in the region at the moment.
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B
And the US President, Donald Trump, is saying he's denying he's considering strikes inside Venezuela. What are your thoughts on that?
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H
I think that's difficult to maintain if you've just put an aircraft carrier just kilometres off the coast. Very difficult to say that, you know, he's seeking some peaceful solution to the situation when he's done that. And I guess the backdrop in the last couple of months too has been the US attacking Venezuelan boats that they claim have been drug trafficking towards the us. Venezuela has seen that not only as an attack on its citizens, but also an attack on its national sovereignty. So the tensions between the US and Venezuela have been ramping up for a very long time, but they've gone to a whole new level because of this aircraft carrier.
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B
Let's go to the world of aviation. The United Airlines is fighting its passengers, dare we say, or its passengers claims that a window seat is not a window seat.
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H
This is a remarkable story.
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B
It is.
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This morning I had to read it twice to make sure that it wasn't from the Onion, that it wasn't a spoof. But there is a class action that has been brought against United Airlines in the federal court in San Francisco. And the crux of the case is that a whole range of passengers are claiming that United have charged them for window seats that then did not have a window. And I think I have to read the short quote that United Airlines put out in the press yesterday. They said the word window identifies the position of the seat that is next to the wall of the main body of the aircraft. It does not promise that the seat will have an exterior window view. So what we are talking about actually is a wall seat, not a window seat. But this case is going to rumble. And I think we'll tap into a discontent that many passengers have with various airlines around the world about how they are generally being treated.
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B
Indeed, I think this does sort of divide itself into two camps, doesn't it? Those who believe that actually if you, you know that when you buy something, it should be what it is billed as the sort of consumer rights and the champions of that. And people who haven't got that much to do and are deciding just to have a bash at United. One must wonder just how angry the United Airlines passengers must have been to actually get the lawyers involved and also.
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H
How many of them to have a class action, you have to have a lot, a lot of angry passengers. I mean, it's going to be a wonderful case because I assume at some point someone will have to draw a picture of a window to say this is what a window is and here is a picture of a wall and here is something fundamentally different. So there is a, there's a wonderful absurdity to this case, but I think it kind of, it also points to a deeper problem, which is big corporations are taking their consumers completely for a ride, pardon the pun. And I think this case exemplifies a problem that's not just in the airline industry, but much broader than that.
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B
Phil Clark, beware. If you sit next to Phil Clark on a plane, he'll be, I take.
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Up three seats, the least of my problems.
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B
Very tall. Phil Clark, thank you so much for joining us on Monaco Radio Video. Now, a quick look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. The world's biggest warship, the USS Gerald R. Ford, has arrived in Latin America. It joins eight other US Navy ships and a nuclear submarine in the Caribbean, the biggest American military buildup there for decades. The US Says it's there to counter drug smuggling. The Colombian army has carried out airstrikes against FARC dissidents in the Amazon region. At least 18 people have died. Australia's spy chief has warned that hackers linked to the Chinese government are targeting the country's critical infrastructure. He warned that Australia was becoming increasingly vulnerable to high impact sabotage. And President Trump is asking the U.S. supreme Court to review a case that found he defamed and abused the writer e. Jean Carroll. Mr. Trump has repeatedly claimed that some evidence was improperly allowed. This is the Global list. Stay tuned. It's what, 8:29, if you're listening, in Prague, 7:29 here in London. Now, Czechia or the Czech Republic is in the process of choosing a new government after last month's elections which pulled the country towards the right. Forming a parliament, however, has been a huge challenge and a meeting's being held today which could offer a step towards a solution. To tell us more, I'm drawn now from Prague by the journalist Rob Cameron, regular voice here. Good morning, Rob.
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G
Morning, Rob.
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C
Good morning.
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So where are we in terms of trying to find a solid and reliable government? A parliament in Czechia, the Czech Republic?
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C
Well, I fear we may actually be at something of an impasse because today in Prague Castle, the president Petr Pavel, will receive the man who is believed to be most likely to become the next prime minister, Andrei Babi, the billionaire businessman and leader of the populist anor party. But Mr. Pavel, the president, who is the only man in this country who can appoint a prime minister, wants Mr. Babish to explain how he will resolve a potential conflicts of interest once he is named Prime Minister. And specifically The President wants Mr. Babish to make that public before he is named appointed prime minister. So he wants Mr. Babich to stand up in front of the cameras and say, this is what I'm going to do. This is how I'm going to divest myself from my business interests, the ownership of this huge conglomerate of food and fertilizer and chemicals that he owns that he is the sole owner of. And Mr. Pavel says that he has a duty to explain that before he is appointed Prime Minister. Mr. Babish says, no, that's not true, that I don't have to explain that to the public. The law says that I have 30 days to resolve my conflict of interest once I am named Prime Minister. So it's going to be a very interesting meeting at Prague Castle and everybody obviously will be very interested in what these two men say when it's over.
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B
And how much does this influence this conflict of interest involving this agriculture company? How much is this actually slowing down the process of choosing the next government?
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C
It's definitely one factor, but by no means the only factor, because the president, Mr. Pavel, also wants to grill Mr. Babish about his future government's policy priorities. They did release the. There was certainly lots of coverage of what they want to achieve in government and I think it's more what's left out of that kind of proclamation rather than what's in it. Specifically, I think Petr Pavel why he is pleased that there is no longer any mention of holding the referendum on the Czechs say, leaving the European Union or NATO. He wants to see, for instance, a firmer commitment to. To spending on defence and security. Obviously, the Czechs, as members of NATO, signed up to this new target. He wants the government, the future government, to say exactly, you know, how they're going to spend the money, what they're going to spend the money on. So he wants to see concrete commitments. There's also very little say on Ukraine. Mr. Pavel, the president, is a firm supporter of military aid to Ukraine and he's quite alarmed by people in Mr. Babish's party talking about, say, ending the Czech initiative on supplying Ukraine with ammunition bought from around the world, things like that. So those two things, this conflict of interest that Mr. Babish does have for now, and the specifics of the policy priorities of his government are top of the agenda. But there are also personnel problems. You know, some of the candidates that have been mentioned as possible ministers in a new Babish government are extremely controversial and Mr. Pavel has already said that he won't appoint them.
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B
What's the controversy?
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C
Well, the most controversial is the mooted candidate for foreign minister, even though all the parties involved are saying actually, no, there's no actually specific names involved at this stage and it's still being negotiated. But here's a guy called Philip Turek. He's a former racing driver, he is a former MEP, he was recently elected as an MP. He's a member of the smallest party in Mr. Babish's future coalition, which is called the motorists, Motorists for themselves, very Eurosceptic Conservative Party. And Mr. Turek has spent the last month dealing with an absolute storm of controversy for historic remarks he's made on Facebook, very offensive racist remarks, a number of Hitler salutes that have appeared in various photographs. He even appeared to threaten a member of the Saudi Embassy several years ago in a dispute in an underground parking garage over some alleged comment that this Saudi diplomat had made to his then girlfriend. And indeed, Mr. Turek placed an empty shell cartridge on the roof of this guy's car as a kind of warning. So this guy is just absolutely mired in controversy and he is the candidate for foreign minister. Mr. Pavel finds it frankly unbelievable that this guy could be in that post. So that I'm sure, even though it's not officially on the agenda, the two men will be talking about not only him, but other members of Mr. Babasz's potential cabinet as well.
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B
Where does this leave the Czech Republic in the wider scope of the region? Obviously it is, it is being pulled to the right like several other countries in that part of the world, the likes of Slovakia and also Hungary. But the fact remains that what you have just described there, and the fact that there is an argument about conflict of interest in terms of the ownership and the receiving of subsidies of an agriculture firm does not strike you as a sort of a stable and well managed European Union nation?
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C
Not at all. But you know, I have been observing Czech politics for what, 30, 29 years now and I've seen a lot of governments come and go. And you know, the rare is the government that lasts its full four year term for a start. And also equally rare is a government in this country, as is the case in many European countries, which is not a coalition of disparate parties. And often after a, a few years they just break up and one party leaves or they lose their vote of confidence and then you're in this sort of endless cycle of unstable governments. I think it's something that Czechs have just become used to in a way, the fact that this is a country run by coalitions and I think this coalition will be no different. Mr. Babish, certainly his party is the clear dominant force in Czech politics now. Very difficult to form a government without him. So he is clearly at the top of, at the pinnacle of Czech politics. Equally, he doesn't have, and he perhaps never will have enough seats for an overall majority in this country. So he's always going to have to seek coalition partners. And it just so happens that the two coalition partners that he is about to form a government with are, but just by nature is potentially extremely unstable. Figures and forces on the right and far right of Czech politics.
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B
Rob Cameron in Prague, thank you so much for joining us on the line. You're listening to Monocor radio. It's what, 2037 in Wellington, 8:37am in Zurich, 7:37 here in London. Now, New Zealand is the stop direct fund to the Cook Islands in the South Pacific. It follows a decision by the islands to sign several partnerships with Beijing. And I'm joined now by Jeffrey Miller, geopolitical analyst for the Democracy Project in New Zealand. A very good evening to you, Jeffrey. Thank you for staying up for us.
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I
Good morning, Emma and London and good evening from New Zealand.
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B
Good to have you with us. So what exactly has happened between the Cook Islands and New Zealand and China? Where do we want to go first? Let's do Cook Islands and China. What if they agreed?
- [38:25]
I
Oh, look, this story's been going on all year, but basically what happened was that the Cook Islands signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with China back in February and a number of other agreements and New Zealand has really not been happy with the situation because Cook Islanders are New Zealand citizens and Cook Islands are officially a self governing state in what's called free association with New Zealand. So there is a special constitutional relationship. It is complex though. And there's an agreement that goes back to 2001 that was signed between New Zealand and the Cook Islands that says that the Cook Islands are also sovereign and independent state and have the right to sign treaties, albeit with some consultation with New Zealand. So it's all a bit of a mess, but there's a big personal dispute really between the Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown and the New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters, who's handling this issue.
- [39:22]
B
So is it personal or is this just the wider issue that, as you say, the Cook Islands Islands has within its power the ability to sign agreements with different countries. But this has not been done in the case of China, has it?
- [39:37]
I
Indeed, look, it's ambiguous, this agreement that goes back to 2001, that was. It's called the Joint Centenary Agreement because it marked 100 years of the Cook Islands being a New Zealand colony. And it's all quite a strange situation the way it ended up, the way that New Zealand ended up as a colonial power in the Pacific and then decolonised the likes of the Cook Islands back in the 1960s and the Cook Islands this year marked the 60th anniversary of that agreement with New Zealand from 1965. But New Zealand ministers boycotted the festivities. They sent just the Governor General who holds largely a ceremonial role. So there's a lot of bad blood between Winston Peters, the Foreign Minister, and Mark Brown, the Kuk Islands Foreign Minister. As I said, of course there is a geopolitical geostrategic level as well with all of this because. Because China and the United States really are in this great game for control of the Pacific. And Winston Peters, the New Zealand Foreign Minister, is very much on the side of the United States here and does not want to see China gain a further foothold in the Pacific. But Mark Brown really is running rings around Winston Peters and it's all Quite unedifying is the way I see it. This spat is burst out into the public domain. It's been fought out through the New Zealand media all year really and both sides have been at loggerheads and it's quite embarrassing really given that we are talking all about New Zealand citizens here. But the latest step in the whole saga was at the weekend when it emerged that New Zealand had withheld a further tranche of funding to the Cook Islands government. So it's withheld in total around about US$17 million. Now that might seem like a small amount of money to many of your listeners in the context of global budgets, but we're talking about a population of 15,000 people on the Cook Islands. US$17 million is actually a pretty significant element of the Cook Islands budget. So effectively Winston Peters and the New Zealand government are trying to play hardball here with the strategy. They're trying to have a tough love strategy and they want Mark Brown to buckle on this.
- [41:51]
B
In having this very personal argument, are they missing the wider point, which is China is expanding its influence rapidly in the South Pacific. And when you look at what's been happening recently, you can just look at pictures of China and the Cook Islands this weekend wrapped up their first joint scientific expedition. They've been. And South Pacific is an interesting place for the, for the race for Rare Earths. So by narrowing it down to a row between two men they are clearly missing a much bigger picture here, isn't it?
- [42:26]
I
Aren't they indeed. Look, I mean I'd see things a little differently perhaps to some of my colleagues I would say that these are economic focused agreements and Mark Brown has been very clear that that's what these agreements are and we can see that they are economic focused agreements. They're not defence and security related as Winston Peters likes to make out. And I would also say that New Zealand has its own comprehensive strategic partnership with China signed back in 2014. Indeed, China is New Zealand's biggest trading partner with China is New Zealand's biggest trading partner. So what is the problem we're trying to solve here? In a sense now the Cook Islands are on the same page as New Zealand. There is actually a lot of room I think for cooperation, for trilateral cooperation in terms of economic development for the good of the Khokans. Because I don't think this current strategy of playing hardball is actually that productive. And as we're seeing, as you mentioned, it is only driving the Cork Islands further into the hands of China and because we're talking about Chump change in the scheme of global budgets. You know, China can easily make up that 17 million US dollar shortfall if it wants to, and New Zealand is left on the outer. I think it would be much smarter for New Zealand to engage and work together with the Cook Islands, with China and to try and find a way forward. But there's so much bad blood between these two men. I think you're going to need outside intervention, outside mediation, perhaps from within the Pacific Islands forum. But also I think the New Zealand Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, probably needs to take more of a leading role, but he's left us very much up to his foreign minister, to Winston Peters, and the debacle seems to, seems to roll on.
- [44:14]
B
Geoffrey Miller, thank you so much for joining us on the line from New Zealand. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio.
- [44:23]
A
Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft.
- [45:01]
B
Time now to explore the world of aviation for the latest, I'm joined now by Sally Gethin, aviation analyst. Very good morning to you, Sally. How are you?
- [45:09]
J
Morning, Morning. Good, thanks.
- [45:10]
B
Yes, good to have you with us. EasyJet is 30. What are our thoughts?
- [45:16]
J
Well, my thought is that that time is marching on for me because when I entered the aviation industry, EasyJet had just started up, so obviously it is a major milestone. They've come so far, haven't they really? In those days, to start off with, the founding father was Stelios Haji Ioanna, a very big character in the industry. And I was lucky enough to fly out with him on one of the early, you know, in the startup phase, actually. So, you know, I've got an affection for EasyJet. I feel that it's flown the flag not only in the uk, but for the whole of Europe. And it's kind of provided an alternative to Ryanair in terms of offering a more like comfortable, almost legacy style product for passengers. And it's phenomenal to think that the airline has flown 1.2 billion passengers in that time frame in 30 years. And to celebrate, they actually launched a commemorative flight with all the crew aged 30, 30 years on that flight to celebrate the 30 year mark.
- [46:36]
B
When it comes to the world of low cost, where does EasyJet sit with all this? I mean, is it a pioneer or is it always been one of those aircraft, one of those carriers which didn't necessarily pioneer but knew how to do low cost, slight with, with a slightly less harsh approach to, I should say than some others.
- [46:56]
J
I'd agree with you on the latter point, like slightly less harsh. And you know, it's, it's like almost the, the, the, the twin or two sides of the coin with Ryanair in the industry. I mean Ryanair is, you know, in, in the pole position but EasyJet has always maintained a dominant position as well. And, and like I said, it's, it's gone through some corporate changes as well. Shakeout and it's still survived. And I think, yeah, I think it's an interior passenger product which is very popular amongst business passengers and I think that it really deserves recognition for that in, in terms of encroaching on the legacy carriers if you like, with their traditional legacy products which attract conventionally business passengers. So it's managed to yeah, corner that side of the market but it's, and it's hard to battle through. We've got such a strong, vibrant low fare market across Europe now anyway and so easyjet still doesn't have an easy ride, put it that way.
- [48:18]
B
Let's move to the United States. The government shut down mercifully on coming to an end, but you have, the fact remains is that aviation and airlines have been some of the most directly and visibly affected parts of the American economy. And the race questions being asked as to when flights will simply go back to normal.
- [48:42]
J
That's a really good question. And I was dropping in on a live, a live stream with Secretary Sean Duffy, the Secretary of Transportation, United States, last night. It's complicated, it's messy. I mean at the core of it is the air traffic control issue and it's become very polarized politically. And in fact his rhetoric last night was labeling air traffic controllers who are working without pay currently. So it's still not over. It's not over yet. The shutdown is still causing what's called ground stops. He was calling the ones who working without pay currently as patriots and the ones who are not, who are calling in sick or because they're working unpaid at the moment as unpatriotic. I don't think that really helps the situation. Airlines are at the mercy of all this. I mean there's been just a phenomenal amount of cancellations over recent weeks and but in a region of like 4 to 8% of all flights have been forcibly cut to enable some slack in the system and obviously maintain safety, I Mean, safety is the, is the main priority here. But even this weekend now, even though it looks like the shutdown will be coming to an end, there's still concerns that 10% of flights could be grounded, cancelled. And also there are concerns about Thanksgiving just around the corner, which is the peak holiday season and the peak travel season. And the backdrop to all this is that air traffic control needs a major over overhaul. Sean Duffy called it a blast from the past. They're using paper strips in ATC procedures which is like back in the 1990s, $31.5 billion needed to upgrade the whole ATC system in the long run. But they need these controllers on side and they're really trying hard to retain the, the controllers that are still, you know, coming up to retirement age and, and bringing new ones. I just want to quickly add that there's mention of a $10,000 bonus per controller that does keep working or has been working during this crisis personally handed up by Donald Trump no less, in the White House according to the remarks yesterday. So it's become very divisive amongst the air traffic control sector as well.
- [51:17]
B
Finally, let's talk about Boeing. It is back on the up. It is its fortunes are improving and it's talking about an enormous amount of passenger traffic and demand in Southeast Asia which is now prompting it to manufacture more planes.
- [51:32]
J
Yeah, so this comes on the back of its 20 year commercial aircraft forecast for Southeast Asia and as expected, really Southeast Asia continues to maintain momentum and is very much on a growth track. But for Boeing, they have to temper this, this with competition and Airbus still has the dominant share of that market even though Boeing does see a healthy, a healthy forecast for its own unit. So just crunching the numbers at the moment. Boeing is saying that it, it plans, it can see IT will deliver 4,885 new air aircraft through 2045, which is up from 4,720 in last year's outlook. Most of these are in the narrow body range, those are the thinner, denser routes. Although there is still demand for widebody aircraft. The 737 Max is on order in parts of Southeast Asia. And in terms of the, the actual regions within the region, the real bright spots which beckon are the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. So yeah, it's looking good, it's beckoning well for Boeing but obviously it still has to compete with Airbus in that particular sector.
- [53:07]
B
Sally Gethin, thank you as ever for joining us on the line. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio.
- [53:13]
J
You.
- [53:23]
B
Now the City of Abu Dhabi has long been building its cultural credentials. But in recent months this pace has quickened with the announcement of Freeze Abu Dhabi. The city now joins the ranks of major global art destinations. But beyond the headlines and new openings lies a broader story, one of cultural stewardship, public engagement and the idea that art can play a vital role in shaping a city's civic life. OR Monocle's Vincent McEvinney caught up with Reem Fada, the director of the Cultural foundation in Abu Dhabi and the director of Cultural Programming at the Department of Culture and Tourism in Abu Dhabi, to find out more about this cultural transformation and how art can be a powerful agent for change.
- [54:01]
D
Abu Dhabi has been working steadfastly for over, you know, a couple of decades on this. I want to call it like cultural renaissance and institutional setting. I've been of privilege to have been part of this journey from nearly 2009. So I've been able to witness across various frontiers closely and how things have evolved for this capital and how much culture is vital place in that evolution both in in institutional settings. The museum projects on Sa', Adiyat, but also our vibrant cultural centers and art centers that are across Abu Dhabi as well. And Al Ain there's been a lot of care and a lot of sweat and tears that has been put into a lot of this. All the programs and all the institutions that have been set forward as you very well mentioned, for example, one of the great examples is Abu Dhabi Art. The bespoke Art Fair of Abu Dhabi that has gone is next week in its 17th edition is now transforming to become Freeze Abu Dhabi. So I think, you know, there is quite a large a bedrock of hard work grounds up initiatives that have happened across again decades. And this evolution has really come to the plucking at this stage in time in a wonderful way.
- [55:35]
C
Can you tell us more about the work of the Cultural foundation and its focus?
- [55:40]
D
So Culture foundation is a great example because it's an institution that was earmarked to be established in 1975 by His Highness Dalit Sheikh Zayed. He issued it as the second degree after the formulation of the unification of the state, saying it's important to have a cultural center in the the note of government next to Qasr Al Huson, the original center or heart of the city. And immediately afterward the work of an architectural bid came out forward and the Gropius Bao Office Architectural Collaborative was set to do that project. And a beautiful Bauhaus building was then unveiled in 81 and fully operational in Abu Dhabi and became the center of, I want to call it, like really not a soul did not visit Abu Dhabi. Absent Malls Culture Foundation. Sorry, absent the malls, absent other various kind of public monuments and structures. It housed everything and everyone. It became the Civic Engagement Place, the Cultural Engagement Place. It had a library, quite an amazing exhibition also program and a large theater that, that housed at the time around 900 people. That building was in around 2008, closed down. And there was talk about demolishing it because it was in, you know, it was built at the time with saline water. It meant that it was eroding. But instead the government embarked on a project of completely conserving it and reviving that building. And it took 11 years to do that. And then we reopened the doors in 2018. Soft opening, fully open by 2019. And you know, we've welcomed, I want to call hundreds of thousands of people into the Culture Foundation. We have a fantastic exhibition program that really focuses on the artists of the region. The Global south at Large performing arts program that is like no other across here, especially in Abu Dhabi, and invite both international and regional performances across the board. And we transformed the national library that was then there into a children's library. State of art children's library that has made it an open center. It's free of charge. It's always, you know, vibrant and has many. It has this art studio residency. It has a calligraphy workshop with our resident calligrapher, Mohamed El Mandy. We have several workshop spaces. It's quite the space to visit and it's right in the middle of town.
- [58:23]
B
That was Reem Fada, the director of the Cultural foundation in Abu Dhabi, talking to Monocle's Vincent McEvinney. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers, Vincent McEvinney, Tom Webb and Anita Riotta. Our researcher was Joanna Moser and our studio manager was Steph Chungu. After the headlines, more music on the way. The brief evenings live at midday here in London. I'll be back with a globalist at the same time tomorrow. So for now, from me, Emma Nelson, Goodbye. Thank you very much for listening.
- [59:17]
A
With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.