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The Globalist
Israel’s ground invasion into Lebanon begins, as France pushes for direct talks
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UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Georgina Godwin
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on the 17th of March, 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with up. Hello, this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, the one who
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Robyn Brandt
will pay the full price is the Lebanese government and Lebanon as a whole.
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Georgina Godwin
We will begin with the latest in Beirut as Israel launches a ground invasion on the south of Lebanon. Then we'll hear what effect the Iranian conflict is having on global aviation before having a rustle through the front pages. We'll catch up with events in Myanmar as Parliament convenes for the first time since the military takeover.
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Daniel Sazonov
And we are not just one of the greenest, but perhaps one of the bluest capitals in Europe.
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Georgina Godwin
We'll hear from Helsinki's mayor, Daniel Sazonov. We'll find out why anime revival screenings are having a moment in Japan. And we'll have a roundup of news from beyond our planet. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Rockets and drones targeted the US Embassy in Baghdad early today in the most intense attack on American interests in Iraq since the start of the US And Israel's war with Iran. Millions of Cubans have been left without electricity after the country's national power grid collapsed amid worsening fuel shortages and mounting pressure. Pressure from the United States and dozens are feared dead after an airstrike hit a drug treatment hospital in Kabul, with Afghanistan's Taliban government accusing Pakistan of carrying out the attack. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, the war between Israel and Hezbollah is expanding, and now a ground offensive is underway in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces are pushing towards the Litany river, and officials say the campaign could match the scale of operations seen in Gaz. Simultaneously, France is trying to broker a diplomatic breakthrough that could see Lebanon recognize Israel for the first time. But with hundreds already killed and the fighting intensifying, is it too late for diplomacy? Well, I'm joined now by Leila Milana, Alan Monocle's Middle East Correspondent Leila, it's great to have you back again. Can you tell us what's happening on the ground in southern Lebanon?
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Leila Milana Allen
The situation in southern Lebanon is if people are concerned about the war at the end of 2024, this is on another scale. It's clear that this time Israel has decided that they are going to follow their war aims and they're not going to really be concerned about, about any criticism from the outside and that they don't believe that the Lebanese government, which has been trying to disarm Hezbollah since the ceasefire in November 2024, is doing anything at all, really in that direction. Now already we've seen huge waves of strikes over the last couple of weeks in the south of Lebanon. We've seen mass displacement rather than what happened last time, which was sort of individual notices for individual areas. There's just been a sweeping evacuation notice issued by Israel for pretty much the whole of the south of Lebanon. And so we've got more than 20% of the population of Lebanon displaced. That's over a million people, many of whom moved north to either side on the coast, or even towards Beirut and further north than that. But many other people in these villages in the south of Lebanon are staying put. They're saying they know that Israel either wants to flatten their homes or to occupy that area. And of course, at the end of the Lebanese civil war, there was an occupation until the year 2000. So many people concerned that will happen again. And of course, across the country we've seen more than 850 people already killed. So it's a very fast moving and very concerning situation for everyone whose homes are in the south of Lebanon.
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Georgina Godwin
So what is Israel's stated ambition? What do they say they want to do?
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Leila Milana Allen
The stated ambition is the complete disarmament of Hezbollah. But this time the Israeli government is also saying that they want essentially to occupy parts of the south of Lebanon already. They had left five military outposts there after the supposed ceasefire in November 2024 that weren't supposed to be there. And now they say they're going to do the job themselves. What is clear is that while many people thought Hezbollah had been pretty much completely incapacitated by the last war, that's not the case. And they definitely building up their forces again over the last year and a half. So Israel's attitude is that the Lebanese government is not doing enough to disarm them, despite great efforts on, on their behalf and on behalf of the Lebanese army, and that now they want to take matters into their own hands and These threats that are being made essentially to make the south of Lebanon look like Gaza really invoke the sort of wasteland scenes that we've seen in Gaza and are very concerning for people because it does not seem that they have been restrained in any way in their war aims. And they're very happy, as we've seen, to detonate entire villages, flatten entire villages, really wipe them off the map.
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Georgina Godwin
And that concern, of course, is reflected by the international community. There's been a joint statement issued by the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the uk. What have they said and will any heed be paid to it?
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Leila Milana Allen
Well, at the moment, no heed is being paid at all. One of the problems here, of course, is this is absolutely devastating for Lebanon. But in the scale of what's happening with the Iran, the region, it's not really getting as much attention as it needs. And this is the problem Lebanon has had for many years, is that their key Western allies are also allies of Israel. And most importantly, of course, it's really the US that needs to come in and do something here. Now, we've had this plan suggested by France. France is essentially trying to introduce diplomacy as a different way of handling this. But there are some pretty key problems in this plan, the main one being that it suggests that Lebanon would have to recognize Israel as a state. Now, Lebanon and Israel have essentially been locked in a state of war since the creation of Israel in 1948, but particularly since the end of the civil war, since that occupation. Then, of course, we saw war in 2006, again in 2024. The idea that the Lebanese government is going to recognize this state, which has repeatedly launched war on it, which pretty much everyone in the country is against, whether they are Palestinian communities, whether they're Lebanese communities that have been attacked, it would really be politically death for them to do so. So it seems very unlikely that would happen. It's not clear whether this plan could go ahead without that recognition. But other things in the plan, essentially it's all based around Resolution 1701, which is what brought the 2006 war to an end, which requires Hezbollah to pull north of the Litany river in the south, which requires them to completely disarm. The idea is that peacekeepers would oversee this, and a group of European, Of. Of other peacekeepers from European nations, not UN peacekeepers, would also come in and try and monitor this. The question is what the enforcement would be, because this is ex. What we saw with the 2024 ceasefire, the idea was again, built around those principles Peacekeepers in the south of Lebanon can't really do anything to enforce the disarmament of Lebanon, and they've also regularly come under fire from Israel. So the problem here is that while this is all a very nice diplomatic plan, firstly, the US would really have to get involved as the most powerful ally of both. Of both Israel and Lebanon, it was the US that pulled through the ceasefire last time. There doesn't seem to be any appetite from the American government to really engage at all at the moment. They've got other, other bigger pressures and focuses with the Iran war. And secondly, there's really nothing in this plan that suggests why would it work now, why would this be successful in disarming Hezbollah when it didn't work the last two times around? So, thus far, although the Lebanese government is very keen to engage with this French plan, President Joseph Aoun has nominated a negotiations team. There hasn't really been any engagement from Israel because as I don't see that this would work when previous plans for a peaceful settlement haven't.
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Georgina Godwin
And as you say, the US is reviewing the plan. But who in the Trump administration is actually covering the Lebanon brief? That doesn't appear to be clear at all.
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Leila Milana Allen
It's not clear at all. Now. Previously, of course, we've seen Stephen Wyckoff, who has been his Middle east envoy, working on this, and it really was him, with some assistance from Jared Kushner, who managed to push the streets last time. Last time during the war, at the end of 2024, we saw regular trips from Wyckoff to the region. He was really engaging with parties on all sides trying to put this, push this through. We haven't seen any of that on this occasion. It's almost like Lebanon doesn't really exist in this war, like it's sort of a side effect. And of course, that's what's incredibly devastating for people inside the country, the mass destruction we're seeing. We're also seeing a completely different level of bombing from the last time, which was mostly restricted to the south of Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut. We are seeing bombing now in central Beirut, in northern Christian towns, really, across the board. There doesn't seem to be any restraint and as I say, thus far, really no specific engagement from the American government as to what a peaceful plan could be here. It does seem that Lebanon is very much being left as a side effect on the back foot, and there's not really any focus on trying to bring this water stop as quickly as possible.
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Georgina Godwin
Now, there are 34 archaeological sites marked by blue plaques under that 1954 Hague Convention, which provides international protection for cultural property during armed conflict. Do you think that Israeli soldiers will respect this?
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Leila Milana Allen
We have thus far seen absolutely no evidence of that. Of course, in Gaza, we've seen hundreds of historical sites, including one of the oldest Orthodox churches in the world destroyed in the war there. Ancient baths in the city, ancient structures by the sea. Absolutely no attention was paid to UNESCO heritage there. And of course, in Lebanon, as you say, so many vital historical sites, Roman sites, sites from the Crusades. Already we've seen heavy bombing in Baalbek. The largest remains of a Roman temple in the world stand in Baalbek. And those have been regularly hit around the site. So there doesn't seem to be any concern about what this is going to do. Of course, insider as well, very important historic souks, very important Crusader castle. Those, the areas around those have been hit as well. It seems thus far that essentially these sites have survived simply because they happen not to have been directly hit. But there's certainly been damage done. And there is great concern, of course, for the cultural heritage of Lebanon, not just because it's very important to preserve these sites for the Lebanese, but also because a key part of Lebanon's economy is the tourism industry, which was just starting to get back on its feet after the last war. So that's incredibly concerning for people to see that these sites might become, might come under fire as well. And thus far, we haven't seen any curtailing of where bombing takes place in order to try and protect those.
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Georgina Godwin
Leila, thank you so much. That's Leila Malana Allen, Monocle's Middle east correspondent. And this is the Globalist. It is 1412 in Bangkok, 712 here in London. Airspace disruption across the Middle east is ripping through the global travel industry. With fewer flights operating through key Gulf hubs, airlines are cutting capacity and fares are rising just as millions of travelers begin booking summer holidays and trips to the 2026 World Cup. Well, I'm joined now by Anita Menderrata, who's an aviation expert and special advisor to the Secretary General of the UN on tourism. Anit, thanks for joining us. How serious is the global disruption in air travel?
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Anita Menderrata
The global disruption has been massively significant in terms of we're looking at about 45 to 50 million flights that have been canceled. Now, importantly, Georgina, this is not just the flights going into the GCC and going through. It's also the air corridor over that strip, which accounts for about 30% of global travel. The disruption in that has caused massive Delays, diversions and pure cancellations.
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Georgina Godwin
How much capacity has disappeared as Gulf carriers cut flights?
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Anita Menderrata
It's an important question that you ask, especially coming from the UK and Europe. So if we look at it, for instance, between Qatar Airways, Etihad and Emirates, every single day, there's about 42 flights. That's 16 to 18,000 seats. So if we have capacity limitations or cancellations of flights, that falls away, which opens up other airlines opportunity, but then it increases pricing because there simply isn't the seats that people need. So we're looking at significant capacity withdrawals in terms of flights, but also airports. So if we look at it, for instance, Dubai airports, one of the most important in the world, they're operating at about 60 to 70% capacity with constant, sadly, disruptions. And we know in the last 24 hours they've had to shut for a few hours because of, again, a drone strike at a fuel source nearby. So it's incredibly disruptive because there's no continuity of recovery. There's no understanding of how long this will last.
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Georgina Godwin
And why does disruption in the Middle east affect the global market?
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Anita Menderrata
I think very much about the fact that it's the primary transit route. So if we look at, again, Europe and the UK for people that are traveling to Asia, 30% of them will actually transfer in the Middle East. They might stay a little bit of time in Dubai or in Doha or in Abu Dhabi, but they're transiting through 50% of people from the UK and Europe going to Australia, New Zealand go via the Middle East. So when you have disruption in that part of the world, it puts huge pressure on the ability for the rest of the world to connect. We also can't forget that this includes cargo, because many of those aircraft majority have cargo in their bellies. So it's not only travel that's disrupted. Global trade is significantly disrupted over and above the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
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Georgina Godwin
And what's the impact on airline strategies and aviation supply chains?
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Anita Menderrata
It's a challenging situation right now because on one hand, we've gone through the last two years where there's been significant desire for airlines to expand their routes, increase their fleets, and there just hasn't been aircraft. So there's been a huge delay in the deliveries. Now suddenly, delivery momentum is increasing, but the airlines are having to adjust their strategies in terms of current operations and expansion. But that means that other airlines around the world that have no pressure, that are currently experiencing in the crisis, they can possibly take on some of those aircraft. So when you look at the main Middle Eastern carriers, they have to look significantly at first the recovery plans and then picking up their expansion plans because the recovery is going to take time. And the recovery is only in rebooking flights, reactivating airports to their full capacity. It's a recovery of confidence because people are naturally going to be very concerned about either traveling to certain destinations or traveling through destinations on their airlines. So there's the military action that's going to end, but the collateral damage, that recovery period is going to be much longer.
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Georgina Godwin
And are we seeing travelers adjusting their summer holiday plans?
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Anita Menderrata
Without question. I think there's two reasons for that. Firstly, because of the concerns of geopolitics and also the pricing of ticketing. We've seen ticket prices go up 20 to 30% already on some airlines. Some are putting in now the additional fuel surcharges and adding in additional costs, or they're simply just putting up the price because they feel that there's a requirement in terms of the demand. So with limited supply, you have the opportunity to be able to get a little bit of a higher fare. But I do believe that very much like with COVID where people were initially nervous to travel again, they'll travel closer to home. That'll be more domestic travel, more regional travel and then long haul travel, depending on how they're able to fly. Because we need to keep in mind as well, those Middle Eastern carriers are can be between 30 and 60% less in charge than using another legacy carrier if you're flying to Australia, for instance, from the UK or Europe. So there are many variables at play. People still need to travel, they will still travel. It's a question of where and how.
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Georgina Godwin
So the United States, Canada and Mexico are preparing to host the 2026 Football World Cup. Do you think that aviation disruption will affect travel for those events?
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Anita Menderrata
Sadly, there are many ways in which I believe the FIFA World cup is going to be impacted. Aviation, definitely. There's no question, because many people would use that Middle Eastern corridor as a way of getting to North America on very good airlines and very good, good pricing. Now that's being disrupted in terms of the ability to get those seats. But there's also sadly, the reputational damage on events that are taking place. And so if we look at people's attitude towards Canada, the States and Mexico at the moment, there's some fragility there. Mexico's just gone through its challenges with the cartels and that's put people questioning the safety of the games. Equally in the U.S. there's some concerns, but as we get closer. We're still 100 days from kickoff. And knowing from my experience from the 2010, the World cup in South Africa, the love of the beautiful game will hopefully build that courage back up and people will go and be able to support.
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Georgina Godwin
And finally, Anita, is this a positive for anyone in the industry? Are some airlines and destinations benefiting?
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Anita Menderrata
There are some that benefiting is an interesting choice of words. There are some airlines that are helping out, admittedly so Turkish Airlines as an example has really stepped up because Istanbul and Muscat. So also the airlines going through Oman, they've been the basis of redirections, of flights, of repatriation flights. And so for many people trying to go from north to south or east to west and vice versa, being able to use Istanbul as a hub is very much a possibility. And Istanbul has always very much followed a strategy like Dubai and recognizing that a good two thirds of the world's population is within 8 hours flying distance and they're a very competitive airline. The question though is if people are now moving on to getting tickets on Turkish airlines. There's more pressure on capacity, but there are some that are that are able to take advantage of the short term gains. But in the aviation community, ultimately this is an industry based on safety and every airline supports the other in making sure that travel is safe and is secure wherever they're going.
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Georgina Godwin
Anita, thank you very much indeed. That's Anita Menderrata who's an aviation expert and special advisor to the Secretary General, UN Tourism. Now still to come on the program,
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Tyra Schubert
pending completion of the work in the
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Georgina Godwin
VAB and at the pad, we are
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Tyra Schubert
on track for a launch as early as April 1st.
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Georgina Godwin
We'll hear about the Artemis Moon excursion and other space stories. This is the globalist.
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UBS Narrator
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Georgina Godwin
Well, let's continue with today's newspapers and joining me in the studio is Robyn Brandt, former BBC presenter and correspondent on China and the United States. Robyn, welcome back.
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Robyn Brandt
Good morning.
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Petri Birdsoff
Thank you.
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Georgina Godwin
It's lovely to have you here. Let's start of course with what we're reporting in our headlines and this is the targeting of the US Embassy in Baghdad. What do we know about this?
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Robyn Brandt
Well, so it's the latest strike on that building within the Green Zone in Baghdad. We saw some missile and drone strikes on Saturday. I've just been outside watching CNN actually and seeing some footage of at least two or three projectiles striking the building. Also a hotel nearby. Interestingly, some anti aircraft fire appearing to come from the US Embassy as well. So no reports on any injuries or anything like that. But as I said, this appears to be the latest in a tit for tat between some of those Iranian backed or Iranian supporting militia groups in Iraq. And a reminder as well, the US Pulled out almost all of its forces. But of course that embassy, the diplomatic staff remain. It still has around 2,500 military personnel there as well. But the footage is quite dramatic on both the hotel and the US Embassy in the last few hours.
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Georgina Godwin
Now, still sort of war related, Emmanuel Macron is announcing the name of a future aircraft carrier. You'd think he'd possibly have more important things to do. But anyway, it's important things have named.
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Robyn Brandt
Yeah. Although I suppose in the middle of an impending world war, this is a kind of a move that maybe detractors of Macron would say is not surprising. It's also a reminder of kind of who's got what in terms of naval military presence around the world. The French just have one aircraft carrier at the moment. They're planning a new one. And interestingly, tomorrow, Wednesday in France, the president is going to unveil the name. The list is an interesting one. According to Le Figaro. It includes a couple of presidents. Countries tend to name their aircraft carriers after presidents or certainly the Americans do. The Chinese tend to do it after places at the moment. Apparently Joan of Arc. Joan d' Arc is top of the list. There's a Francois Mitterrand in there as well. There's a Pompidou as well. But on Wednesday, Macron will take the moment after what's not been a great domestic week politically to have a big naming revelation and also a reminder and we've seen this in the past few days as well, with events in the Middle east that France retains proudly an independent military presence and remains in that relatively exclusive club of being an aircraft carrier owner.
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Georgina Godwin
Let's move to Brazil now because they have moved to ban teen access to online gambling and also to pornography. I'm not sure why this is a big headline because this is something that other countries have been looking at for a long time.
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Dr. Ronan Lee
You're right.
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Robyn Brandt
The latest country to do so in the Australians were the most the ones who were seen to be the pioneers the most fervent in their ban introduced last year, what's most interesting, and it actually kicks in across the whole of Brazil today. And so we're seeing the culmination of efforts led by legislators and the current president, Lula da Silva, to really make sense of those restrictions, particularly for under 18s when it comes to a range of content online, broader moves to protect minors across Brazil as well. And interestingly, much of this focus is not just about restricting access for children, you know, linking some of these accounts to parental accounts as well. But what's interesting in Brazil is really significant moves against some of the gamification as well and the gaming platforms like Roblox and the way that they seem to exploit many of the children who come to these services online and end up wanting to buy things as well, often on print or credit cards. We're seeing bans as well, stricter bans put in place at the same time as these tighter restrictions on access for
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Georgina Godwin
teens online in Brazil and Australia, of course did it with social media as well. And I just wonder, I can understand stopping children accessing this in the first place, but if you say to a 15 year old you've had Instagram since you were 12 and now you can't have it, that would be the real problem, I imagine.
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Robyn Brandt
Yeah. And I think there are efforts in place now to try and make the best of, frankly, as a parent of three teenage children, of a relatively bad situation. But I think this is similar to some of the moves we're seeing in terms of much tighter restrictions on the acquisition of tobacco. This is about trying to save essentially the next generation and I think make it much tougher for children coming up, so to speak, in terms of accessing lots of this content online. Because as I think, as you point out, the current situation is very, very difficult to try and deal with the kind of what's already kind of out of the box. And so from my point of view is that this is about restrictions in place now to try and make the next generation, their access, their relationship with some of this online content very different to what teenagers have now.
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Georgina Godwin
How do you deal with it with your own kids?
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Robyn Brandt
How long have you got? I mean, look, they, you know, we spent seven, eight years in, in China. Much of life there was digitized and on a phone. And so in terms of leading by example, in terms of what parents are doing and where the lives exist, it's very difficult, I think, to have one life for yourself and then turn to your children and say, look, you know, you can't partly have this life for you. It's very, very challenging. I've got three kids. They deal with it separately. Some of them are able to control themselves more, they have more discipline. Others, the younger one, I think they've existed with this thing since much earlier in their life and therefore it's become much more normalized and frankly it's much more difficult for them to tear themselves away from it.
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Georgina Godwin
Yeah. Right, off to Nairobi, to Kenya now. And reports of a car towing, extortion racket.
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Robyn Brandt
Ye. Yeah. I mean the Daily Nation railing against what sounds like a fairly parochial issue. But let's look at some of the biggest cities around the world. New York, London. We've seen the presence of cars in French cities be a big issue for the domestic political elections this week. And so it's really significant in terms of managing these cities, managing their future in terms of pollution, but also just kind of keeping them safe places where people can trust the officials they're electing, the people running their cities. And the Daily Nation railing this morning against a corruption racket in a country which has suffered with significant levels of corruption across national, provincial and city led government. And this is essentially about local officials in cahoots with private car towing companies where cars are just being taken away, taken to compounds and their owners, their drivers being extorted for significant amounts of money. And this isn't just about people who are contravening the parking lots. This is people, according to the Nation, who have paid their parking fees. They're parking legally and there among those being targeted as well. And the amount of money being extorted from some of these drivers to get their vehicles back, according to the Nation is significant. Up to 20,000 shillings. I mean, I think that's roughly at the bottom end of an average week's salary for some people. And the nation says that cartels kind of dominate part of this business. And also what's interesting when it comes to the legitimate payment of some parking fees as well, you've got operators in cahoots with local officials. They're essentially bypassing the digital payment system. So you've legitimately raise money as well going into the pockets of some of these corrupt officials.
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Georgina Godwin
And of course the, the traffic in Nairobi is absolutely insane. I mean I, I would, the only thing I would say about this is that it's quite a good thing to have some cars.
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Anita Menderrata
It is.
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Robyn Brandt
I suppose that's one take on it.
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Georgina Godwin
Right. Finally, bts, of course, South Korea's biggest boy band, they've just come back together. They were taking a break because they were all doing their national service, weren't they?
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Robyn Brandt
Yeah, the BTS army, their fans. You know, I've got the end of the week to look forward to this massive reunification of the band. It's a huge event in Seoul. I mean, the army excited because some of these guys have been literally in the army doing their two years of national service. Just remind ourselves of the stats on bts. I mean, there's a whole boatload to go through, but they're staggering. 65 billion streams, 40 million albums. They are a huge success, a massive global phenomenon breaking not just of Korean music, but, you know, in the billboard in the States as well. The gig is at the end of this week in Gwanghuman Square in Seoul. It's a huge event to organize. 200,000 or 250,000 people are set to attend. The reason I wanted to just mention it is not just because it's a cultural moment for Korea and lots of other people across the world, but this is an event happening in an area where six years ago there was an awful disaster, an awful crash of mostly young people on Halloween night in Itaewon, which is a part of Seoul where this gig is gonna be. 150 people died that night. And so this big event, a celebration for BTS is kind of happening slightly in the shadow of that awful event that saw the death of lots of young people. And of course there will be, you know, a huge emphasis for the officials in Seoul, the police and everyone on government level to get this right and to keep it safe.
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Georgina Godwin
Robyn, thank you very much indeed. That's Robyn Brandt, former BBC presenter and correspondent from China and the United this is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Rockets and drones struck near the US Embassy compound in Baghdad early today in the most intense assault on American interests in Iraq since the war with Iran began. Iraqi security sources say air defense has shot down several drones, but at least one struck inside the compound as Iran aligned malicious escalate attacks following following the killing of fighters from Kataib, Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces. Millions of people across Cuba were left without power after the island's national electricity grid collapsed on Monday. Authorities say fuel shortages have worsened after Washington intercepted oil shipments bound for the island. While President Donald Trump has increased pressure on Havana and suggested the United States could even take control of the country. Country and dozens of people are feared dead after an airstrike struck a drug treatment center in Kabul housing thousands of patients. Afghanistan's Taliban government blamed Pakistan for the attack, while Islamabad says it targeted militant infrastructure and denied striking any health facility. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It is 40, 1831 in Mandalay, 831 in Zurich. Myanmar's parliament has convened for the first time since the military seized power in the 2021 coup. The new chamber is dominated by the army's proxy party, following heavily controlled elections that international observers and human rights groups say lacked legitimacy. Well, I'm joined now in the Studio by Dr. Ronan Lee, visiting scholar at the International State Crime Initiative at Queen Mary's, with a focus on Myanmar, the Rohingya genocide and hate Speec. Ronan, it's always lovely to have you in the studio. What does the reconvening of parliament mean in Myanmar?
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Dr. Ronan Lee
Well, it means that the military's strategy for normalising the state of the country and normalising its rule within the country is just continuing on the roadmap that they've had in mind since they launched the coup in 2021. This is all about normalising relations with the outside world. It's about putting a face on to demonstrate to the outside world that there is now a democracy in Myanma, even though it has no opposition. And it is about enabling foreign powers to work with the Myanmar government in a way that will ultimately normalise relations. This is about a democracy that China will be comfortable with. This is a democracy that China would look at and think that looks democratic. At least it appears democratic. But if you're lucky enough to live in an actual democracy, you would look at the way the democracy in Myanmar works and you would think, well, that's not democracy at all. There's no opposition. Criticism of even the electoral process was landing people in jail. And the military ultimately are the power.
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Georgina Godwin
And how much real independent power then does it have?
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Dr. Ronan Lee
Well, it has no independent power, but it does have power because it is basically a proxy for the Myanmar military. It's the same people. They're just in a body that they're describing as the Myanmar Parliament. They elected a new speaker just in the last couple of days. The speaker would be known internationally as the former head of the Myanmar Police, which is part of the military and is known for leading the crackdown in 2007 on the saffron Revolution. So another hardliner, even in the first post that they elect within the Parliament. These are not moderates. These are not people who are trying to moderate the worst impulses of a brutal Myanmar military. These are the hardliners now pretending to be democrats.
- [34:40]
Georgina Godwin
So much of the country's still caught up in a civil war. How disconnected is this parliament from what's actually happening on the ground?
- [34:47]
Dr. Ronan Lee
Well, half the country couldn't participate in the elections. I mean, there's a civil war that's ongoing. About a third of the country are reliant on humanitarian aid in some way. The UN is telling us that 12 million people are desperately at risk of starvation in the coming period of time. The election was not undertaken in large parts of the country and about 50% of the landmass of the country is not controlled by the Myanmar military. But what's significant is that the places that they do control are the urban centres. Yangon, Mandalay and other large urban centres. The centre of the country, the Buddhist heartland of Myanmar, Myanmar, the ethnic Burma Buddhist heartland. And that's the basis of military control. The parts of the country that are controlled by other groups, by opposition groups, ethnic armed groups and political opposition groups, they tend to be, although not exclusively, but they tend to be around the fringes of the country, around the. But not in the centre. And ultimately that's why the military is able to hold onto power, because it's controlling the large population centres.
- [36:04]
Georgina Godwin
How united are those opposition groups? And if they got it together, could they take power?
- [36:08]
Dr. Ronan Lee
If they got it together, they could take power, but they're not united. At various times, they unite. But the military's been very good at divide and rule. They've done this for 50 years and longer in Myanmar. What they do is they do a deal with one group to play them off against another. China's been doing the same. So China has now a feeling that some of those groups, some of those ethnic armed groups that it had armed. I mean, China's arming both sides of this conflict. But some of the ethnic armed groups that China had armed China felt were too pro Western, too pro Western interests, and they've consequently supported other groups against those ethnic groups. So you've got China playing divide and rule as well on its periphery. So ultimately, until the opposition groups in Myanmar and ethnic minority armies are prepared to cooperate with each other and put aside their differences, and quite often these are localized differences as well. These people have known each other often for decades. Until they put aside those differences, they just won't be able to displace the Myanmar military from power, what's China's interest
- [37:17]
Georgina Godwin
in getting involved at all?
- [37:19]
Dr. Ronan Lee
Well, China's got a very long land border with Myanmar. China wants, ultimately, Myanmar is China's backyard. I mean, China's the regional behemoth China's the regional power. China regards Myanmar as its neighbourhood. What China wants to see in Myanmar as a country, country that's more or less stable, ideally a weakened Myanmar that's no threat to China's interests and more or less stable. So, so China will be interested in what's happening with the Myanmar Parliament. I think ultimately China will be very happy with what what's happening. It's very clear that China now is becoming increasingly comfortable with this military staying in power and transitioning, as it says, into a quasi democracy. It's not really a democracy, but it pretends to be a democracy and China seems very happy with that.
- [38:07]
Georgina Godwin
And just briefly, how long can the junta sustain this appearance of legitimacy whilst this conflict continues within the country?
- [38:15]
Dr. Ronan Lee
Well, they've sustained it for five years since the coup. And what's really clear is that the west is less interested in engaging in Myanmar than it was five years ago. And ultimately that means that what we're seeing now is a new status quo. It's not like it was five years ago or 10 years ago. Western interests in encouraging Myanmar to become a liberal democracy, those interests are gone. The United States has absolutely zero interest in what's happening on the ground in Myanmar and that's very clear. So ultimately I think this is the new normal for international engagement with Myanmar. And until the opposition groups and the ethnic armed groups start actively cooperating and putting aside all of their differences and being a united front and an utterly united front against the Myanmar military, the military is going to manage to hang on to power.
- [39:04]
Georgina Godwin
Dr. Ronan Lee, thank you very much indeed. Dr. Lee is a visiting scholar at the International State Crime Initiative at Queen Mary's. This is Monocle Radio. Next we head to Helsinki where the city's youngest ever mayor, 32 year old Daniel Sazonov, is shaking things up. A self titled liberal who believes in tolerance, openness and international cooperation is bucking the populist trend shaping much of Western politics. As a result, Helsinki's tourism numbers are on the rise. Crime remains low and housing relatively affordable. Monocle's correspondent in the city, Petri Birdsoff, met Sazonov at the city Hall.
- [40:00]
Petri Birdsoff
In little bit less than a year as the mayor, Daniel Sazonov has injected a jolt of youthful energy into how Helsinki is run. He has overseen plans to introduce new car free neighborhoods, attractive new businesses and major corporate HQs to the city and seen a considerable tourism uptick in the Finnish capital. Sazonov bills himself as a liberal who believes in openness and tolerance. And at 32 years old Sazonov is one of the youngest capital city mayors in the world and the youngest ever to lead the city of Helsinki. I began by asking Mayor Sazonov how this generational shift affects the way he runs the city.
- [40:42]
Daniel Sazonov
The age, the generation one belongs to the overall background for me, for example, coming from suburb of Helsinki, from social housing and all those things of course influence the way you look at the city and where you can connect with citizens. If you look at the age part, actually the interesting fact is that the biggest age group in Helsinki is Helsinkians between 30 and 34. And actually almost 50% of Helsinkians are aged between 15 and 44. So actually I represent the biggest age group in Helsinki and that I think we don't often remember that. Actually cities, especially big cities, capitals are often pretty young, our population is pretty young and they're pretty vibrant.
- [41:29]
Petri Birdsoff
You've described yourself as a liberal and internationalist leader. You've done that at a time when large part of Europe, let's say, is leaning more towards conservative and populist values politics. How do you navigate this tension while governing the capital in Finland?
- [41:50]
Daniel Sazonov
Politics in many European countries in the US as well are too much dominated by identity politics. And that's actually what inspires me also in the city politics and leading the capital city that is responsible for a lot of things from the early childhood education to healthcare and social services, rescue service. That's like really wide range of things that when we concentrate on the practical things and really concrete issues that concern Helsinkians everyday life, it actually comes to really practical questions where there is really little of identity politics really let of political tensions that are created just for political tensions. Of course we still differ in views of how to organize health care services or how we should balance cities economy or where should we invest more. But in general for me it has been pretty good recipe to deal with those tensions to really like put identity politics a bit aside and concentrate on the concrete things that actually also are those one that Helsingales are really interested in and want to be handled well.
- [43:14]
Petri Birdsoff
You talked about how Helsinki is growing, but how do you balance this ambition, this growth with Helsinki's reputation for being a very livable city and sort of human scale city.
- [43:26]
Daniel Sazonov
If we look at Helsinki, which is one the of of the greenest capitals Europe, and especially if you add the sea and seafront and the archipelago that we have, we are not just one of the greenest but perhaps one of the bluest capitals in Europe. I think that's something that we really care about and we have found ways to really combine the pretty dense urban development and preserving the nature and preserving the Helsinki's smooth and fast access to the nature as well. So it's not an easy one, but we are finding a way where those two can be combined.
- [44:08]
Petri Birdsoff
Outside of the Nordics, Helsinki often gets grouped together with its neighbours, cities like Stockholm, Copenhagen, Oslo. What would you say makes Helsinki distinct from these other Nordic capitals? And how, how do you plan to sharpen that identity?
- [44:23]
Daniel Sazonov
Internationally, of course, Helsinki has some special advantages. As I mentioned, we are even more green, perhaps we have a stronger maritime identity than many of these cities. If we look at the recent developments like in the five, 10 years, I think actually the Helsinki is in many ways much more safer. The the housing, how everyday life runs and functions. So even compared to Stockholm and Copenhagen, I think that one of the great things in Helsinki is that it's big enough that it's internationally integrated and recognizable, but at the same time small enough that you really feel the sense of community and you really feel perhaps even more connected to the city than in many in those cities that are significantly bigger than Helsinki.
- [45:23]
Petri Birdsoff
Let's talk about the quality of life in Helsinki next. Helsinki famously topped Monocle's quality of Life ranking in 2011 and has been actually misplaced really well even since then. But you know, it hasn't been on the top ever since. What do you think is missing today and what will it take to bring Helsinki closer to the top again in terms of the quality of life?
- [45:47]
Daniel Sazonov
Livability of a city comes from a lot of different factors. It's about livability, about the growth, about the craftiness of the city. And we see great examples. We for example see that Supercell has decided to build a new headquarters, 50,000 square meters. They need the best workforce from the global market, they in global competition. And for me those decisions tell that they really believe in Helsinki as an attractive place. We need to ensure that everyday life runs smoothly. You look at the traffic, you look at the public transport. That's why we're doing those major infrastructure investments.
- [46:33]
Georgina Godwin
And that was Monocle's Helsinki correspondent, Petri Butsoff. This is the globalist on Monocle Radio. It is 1546 in Tokyo, 746 here in London. In Japan, there is a growing trend of classic anime films being re released in cinemas as 4K remastered versions. Over the past few years these revival screenings have rapidly increased, expanding beyond art house venues to major multiplexes where they're often shown for extended periods. Well, I'm joined now from our Tokyo studio By Matt Schley, who's a Tokyo based reporter and a critic for publications including the Japan Times and Screen International. Matt, many thanks for joining us. How popular are these readings releases?
- [47:29]
Matt Schley
Hey, thank you for having me. Obviously it depends on the film, but last year for example, we had a few of these films that cracked the top box office top 10 upon their re release. So they're up there with new, brand new films. So it's an interesting trend.
- [47:45]
Georgina Godwin
And why are older anime films suddenly being shown across the land?
- [47:51]
Matt Schley
Yeah, so part of it was a kind of a Covid thing back in 2020 when a lot of theaters reopened after being closed for a bit. They didn't have a lot of new product and so instead they brought some of these older anime films, these classics out and they did pretty well. And the trend has just kind of continued on since then.
- [48:12]
Georgina Godwin
So what exactly does a 4K restoration change when you're watching an older anime film?
- [48:18]
Matt Schley
Well, a lot of these films, the audiences depends how old they are. Perhaps they never saw it in a theater in the first place. You know, they've also cleaned up the original negatives, they've got rid of some of the scratches on them. So for a lot of fans especially who grew up watching these films on VHS or dvd, it's kind of a brand new experience.
- [48:44]
Georgina Godwin
I wonder if this could become a regular part of the film industry's business model.
- [48:49]
Matt Schley
I think it could. Well do so. I mean for distributors it's a good deal. You know, it costs a little bit of money to make these 4K remasters, but compared to making a brand new film, it's a relatively cheap endeavor. And there's also a kind of built in audience. You know, these famous anime films celebrating their 10th, 20th, 30th anniversary anniversary, they've got this built in fan base and they know that a certain amount of people are going to turn out. So in terms of kind of investment versus risk, it's a pretty good deal for these, for these studios and distributors.
- [49:25]
Georgina Godwin
And I wonder how important the cinema experience is for anime compared with watching it at home.
- [49:31]
Matt Schley
Well, exactly. I mean, I think for the filmmakers, certainly they want their films to be seen in theaters. They spent often years, maybe even a decade to make these features and they want fans to see every little detail. I think there's also the communal experience for fans of going out and seeing the film on the big screen with either strangers or their friends. They'll also do very clever promotional stuff here where you go see the film and you're handed a limited edition postcard, or for example, this happened to me the other week. And if you go back and see the film a week later, you'll get a different postcard. So it definitely encourages repeat viewings.
- [50:14]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. And is this also a way of introducing classic anime to a younger generation and are they picking up on it?
- [50:21]
Matt Schley
Absolutely. I mean, depending on how old the young people are, they might get taken to the theater with their parents, for example, and that could give them a new entrance to, to these classic things. I talked to one anime director who told me something very interesting about these RE releases. He's basically said, with films coming out now, that incorporating generative AI and perhaps a lot of computer generated imagery for people young and old, maybe especially young, it is kind of refreshing and incredible to see these films that were made, made literally by hand and just kind of that handmade feel is a nice kind of antidote to our very kind of clean, maybe AI films of the current generation.
- [51:14]
Georgina Godwin
And Matt, if someone listening wants to dip a toe into classic anime for the first time, which film should they hunt down and why?
- [51:24]
Matt Schley
Well, you know, it's hard to go wrong with the films of Studio Ghibli, which a lot of people probably know. They've won a couple Academy Awards. Princess Mononoke, which came out in 1997, was a huge RE release here in theaters last year. It went up against a lot of new animated films. And I mean, for me personally, I saw that maybe when it came out when I was about 10 years old and about 30 years later, it's still a huge film for me. So that's a good place to start.
- [51:55]
Georgina Godwin
Matt, thank you very much indeed. And that was a match Schley from our Tokyo bureau.
- [52:06]
UBS Narrator
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- [52:44]
Georgina Godwin
It is 7:52 here in London. And joining me in the studio right, right now is Tyra Schubert, who's a journalist and a fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society. Because we're going to have news from spa.
- [52:58]
Tyra Schubert
Good morning.
- [52:59]
Georgina Godwin
Good morning. How are you?
- [53:00]
Tyra Schubert
I'm very well and I'm looking forward to some real news from space. In just over two weeks, we have the first launch window for mankind's return to the moon. We haven't been there for more than 50 years, since 1972 and Artemis is going to take four people not landing on the moon yet, but they're going to orbit it, including a woman and including a non American, a Canadian.
- [53:25]
Georgina Godwin
So why has this been delayed for? I mean we haven't orbited the moon since 1972, as you say. Why?
- [53:32]
Tyra Schubert
Well, because this is a good question. It's much more complex now. Before we did this rapid engineering in just a couple of years and people weren't as risk averse in those days. NASA wasn't as risk averse because they were in this space race. But now they've been very, very careful and it's a bigger capsule so you need a much bigger rocket. So you have many bigger problems.
- [53:56]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. Now this particular launch has been delayed
- [53:58]
Tyra Schubert
though it's been delayed a number of times. The last one, the last time was, which was just some weeks back, there was a helium leak. This is the biggest rocket that's ever lifted human beings off of a launch pad. And it is got a much bigger capsule than in Apollo times. It even has toilet in it.
- [54:20]
Georgina Godwin
What, do they not normally have toilets?
- [54:22]
Tyra Schubert
No, the Apollo astronauts had a series of plastic bags. Seriously, it was as basic as that. Apollo was cheap and dirty and it worked. But now, as I say, you know, the comfort and risk averse world has slightly changed and also we want to do much more science and ensure much more safety. So the capsule is about 60% bigger than old Apollo capsules that people may have in their heads from Washington watching films like Apollo 13 and 4, not three astronauts.
- [54:58]
Georgina Godwin
So I don't want to get bogged down in this pun intentional but with no gravity. How does the lavatory work?
- [55:08]
Tyra Schubert
It's suction and that's the same way on the International Space Station which actually has two toilets because you have up to 11 people on the International Space Station at times. But yes, it's about suction and it's about. Well, they're slightly different configurations for men and women, but suction and aim are really important.
- [55:31]
Georgina Godwin
Okay, I'm just going to leave that here. We can have a longer conversation about this offer. I am absolutely fascinated. Now listen, Elon Musk, who as we know wants to colonize Mars, is perhaps having second thoughts.
- [55:43]
Tyra Schubert
He is having second thoughts and he announced it with his usual low key announcements. No, not, not really on x, just about two weeks ago. And he said, although the mission of SpaceX remains to take civilization to the stars and colonize another world, Mars could take five or six years. Well that's very optimistic. But we could do the moon much Quicker. So he wants to build a moon city and start colonizing the moon. But also his great rival Jeff Bezos, who has blue origins, which is going to be working on the husband, Artemis is very much involved in the moon. Maybe that influenced him.
- [56:24]
Georgina Godwin
Just a quick query here about ownership of the moon. How is that being. I mean I know that there are international treaties about this now.
- [56:34]
Tyra Schubert
Well, there's several space treaties but the thing is none of them have been signed by, well the old days Soviet Union or Russia or China more relevantly. So if you have a space treaty that's not actually signed by the country that may well beat the United States to boots on the moon. Well, you know, it has limited impact.
- [56:58]
Georgina Godwin
So who owns the moon?
- [56:59]
Tyra Schubert
Well if we could go there first, we could probably stick up a monocle flag and claim bits of it. The answer is it's unknown territory.
- [57:09]
Georgina Godwin
Right, I want to know about. Well, a bit of space trivia.
- [57:13]
Tyra Schubert
A bit of space trivia. Now where do you think is a place on Earth? What's furthest from human habitation? It's a place called Point Nemo and if you did your Latin at school, you know that means nowhere, nothing. Point Nemo is in the South Pacific and its closest human habitation is about 1700 miles away. Ah, no, that's not true. Although on land at 1700 miles away, the International Space Station are the closest human beings. So that's where old spacecraft get the launch into the sea to die when they deorbit.
- [57:45]
Georgina Godwin
That's extraordinary. How many of them are there?
- [57:48]
Tyra Schubert
Well there's more than 250 there at the moment and they were just joined by another spacecraft a few weeks ago. So if you want to go diving and see something other than coral reefs, head there. But I don't know, you might have to keep looking up the whole time.
- [58:02]
Georgina Godwin
And finally, the Chinese space station isn't joining them anytime soon.
- [58:05]
Tyra Schubert
Oh, Chinese space station is going strong. It's up there. It always has three astronauts. The Tianjiang Station and they recently celebrated the Lunar New Year in a very Chinese way. And they are going to be running for, they're going to be orbiting for at least another decade. So the American Congress has decided to extend the life of the International Space Station, which is international but has an American presence on. So instead of putting it down at point Nemo in 20, it will probably be up there till 2032. At that point they hope there's going to be a good other alternative.
- [58:46]
Georgina Godwin
Three astronauts. How many toilets?
- [58:49]
Tyra Schubert
Well, three astronauts, that's a good question. I think they only have one toilet.
- [58:53]
Georgina Godwin
Dear Shuba, thank you very much indeed for joining us here and thank you also for not objecting to the presence of my dog lying at your feet there very quietly. That's all we have on the front program today. Thanks to our producers Hassan Anderson, Tom Webb and Ryuma Takahashi, our researcher Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager Lily Allen. After the headlines, there's more music on the way. The briefing is live at midday in London and the Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening.
- [59:39]
UBS Narrator
With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. Advice is our craft.