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- [00:04]
Georgina Godwin
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 26 January 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Hello, this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's 12 day election campaign gets underway. We'll discuss whether or not her dissolution of parliament on Friday looks set to pay off. We'll head to the Middle east as the civilian death toll in Iran soars and the regime anticipates the arrival of a promised US Armada. We'll ask how Trump's new Board of Peace factors into this and into reconstruction. In Gaza, we'll rustle through the papers and then turn to Myanmar where the final round of voting has taken place. In an election widely seen as a.
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Lisa Ushchenko
Sham, then as long as we create, we live. And that truly inspires our team to give this opportunity to the designers who create their collections. Despite the destruction and war.
- [02:03]
Georgina Godwin
There may be unreliable electricity, but the power of Kyiv's cultural capital stays constant. We'll hear about the rescheduled Ukraine Fashion Week and finally the whole story of.
- [02:14]
Arthur Gerbey
Ovier Compere is really like the serendipity of life I would say. I just walk on the street of Paris and I saw a very elegant man with au vieux compere shopping bag and just appealed to me that something had to be done.
- [02:25]
Georgina Godwin
We learn about the launch of a new in house brand from Arthur Gerbey, co founder of the Parisian concept store Merci. That's all here on the Globalist live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine's energy system, leaving more than 1.3 million properties without power nationwide and over 1,300 buildings in Kyiv without heating during sub zero winter temperatures. Tens of thousands of people in Mozambique are being rescued from the worst flooding in a generation with more than 650,000 people affected and major transport routes cut. And thousands of Australians marked the national Australia Day holiday with rival Invasion Day and anti immigration rallies highlighting deep divisions over Indigenous rights and immigration do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, Japan's new prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has dissolved parliament just three months into her premiership, triggering a snap election on 8 February. With her latest approval ratings down to 67%, that's from 70% last week. She's still betting that personal popularity can translate into a stronger mandate for her Liberal Democratic Party. But with inflation still biting and tensions rising with China, it's a risky move that could shape Japan's domestic politics and its role in the region for years to come. I'm joined now by John Nilsson Wright, who's professor of Japanese politics and the international Relations of East Asia at the University of Cambridge. And joining us from our Tokyo studio is Hendel Hento, who is a contributing writer at the Japan Times. Welcome to both of you. Handel, if we could start with you. Why has Takaichi decided to dissolve Parliament so early in her term? What's she hoping to achieve that she couldn't by simply continuing to govern?
- [04:33]
Hendel Hento
Good morning, Georgina. Well, that's the 1 million yen question. Why now? So this feels like an opportunistic move by Takaichi to capitalize on her very high approval rating. Right? So she has also had recently some diplomatic successes. Right. When Trump visited, the visit went very well. She also had like a big success recently with President Lee from South Korea. You probably saw the video of her going at it at the drums with him. So there is like a lot of positive feeling around her premiership. So she's gambling on, she's gambling that that approval rating that kind of like popularity is going to trickle down into the party. Right. That hasn't happened, though. There has been a lot of polls that have shown that the ldp, her party, remains deeply unpopular even though she's personally very popular. Right. So what can she do? What couldn't she do, you ask? Right. So that's not very clear because she already had the numbers she needed to pass the national budget, Right. Which is what the Diet would be debating right now if it wasn't this old. So she secured the numbers she needed with an agreement with an opposition party called the Democratic Party for the People. They had a pet policy which is raising the income, the tax income limit.
- [06:01]
Petri Birtsoff
Right.
- [06:02]
Hendel Hento
She agreed to that and she got the number she needed for the party, so she would have been able to pass the budget. So it's not very clear that this is the right time for the election or that is to capitalize on her on her popularity I mean, I just.
- [06:18]
Georgina Godwin
Want to bring John in here to talk a little bit about the budget because the yen has jumped after reports of rate checks by the New York Fed. So that's a move that traders often read as a prelude to intervention. What does this mean now for the Japanese economy?
- [06:33]
John Nilsson Wright
Well, I mean, I think the fundamentals of the Japanese economy are pretty solid. But of course, the big concern on the part of markets is looking at a Prime Minister who, if she wins this election, and I think it's still an open question whether she will, and also it's important to ask what constitutes a win? How significant a victory does she need? She wants to gain a clear majority for the LDP itself, in collaboration with their coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party. But I think the concern is that one of the key issues is about increased fiscal profligacy, if you like, that. In an effort to get the economy moving in order to deal with all the challenges associated with Donald Trump's significant tariffs on America. On Japanese exports, the Prime Minister is looking to cut, for example, she's proposed a two year cut in the consumption tax levied on food items, reducing it from 8% to zero. Given the high levels of indebtedness of the Japanese economy, 230% of GDP, this is really a concern about whether a departure from fiscal orthodox and restraint is going to be a source of uncertainty going forward. And of course, there's competition with the opposition parties who have also pledged themselves to commit to cutting the consumption tax on food, not just for two years, but in perpetuity. There's a type of populist dynamic at work here. And I think part of the question about Takaichi's prospects is really about competency. And of course, on top of these economic issues are wider concerns about regional security, defence spending and nipping at the heels of the government. And as your other contributor, I think rightly pointed out, the LDP remains still unpopular. It's being outflanked on the right by a new populist party, Sansetto. The Democratic Party for the People, despite providing support for the government in those key budget votes, is also not aligning itself with the government. And therefore there's a lot of uncertainty about what might happen in specific constituencies. One final point, which is also I think worth keeping in mind, is we've seen a new coalition between the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito creating this new centrist bloc, the Central Reform alliance, and is pitting themselves against the government, which has strong conservative colors, as a more centrist body that might appeal to voters who remain, I think, a little ambivalent about the rightward drift of Japanese politics.
- [09:13]
Georgina Godwin
I mean, Hendel, how serious a challenge do you think that alliance poses to the government? Could they realistically form a government themselves or is the goal just to limit Takaichi's power?
- [09:24]
Hendel Hento
I mean, you could argue both actually. But I think they have a better chance now than they had just a few months ago. This merger was unthinkable just three or four months ago because Comito was part of the governing coalition. And then they just quit the coalition quite dramatically and now they have gone over to the opposition. So the interesting point is the biggest risk for Takaichi with this is that Komeito has a very reliable vote generating machine, which is the Buddhist movement, Soka Gakkai that they are associated with. They. There have been a number of reports that they can't reliably deliver between 10 and 20,000 votes per district. So there was a very interesting report this month by the Mainichi Shimbun, which is one of the largest newspapers here. They went back to the 2024 election and they checked. They kind of run a simulation of what would have happened if the current situation was in place in the election one year ago in October 2024. What they found out is that if this between 10 and 20,000 votes that Komeito reliably delivers have flipped to the opposition at the time, as much as between 30 and 40 seats will have flipped from the LDP to the opposition. So pretty much the LDP will be out of government. If the same situation plays during this election, we can expect something like that to happen. Several LDP politicians will lose their seats, including people who are in the Takaichi Cabinet, several ministers of state who won their seats. The difference between them and the opposition candidate was less than 10,000 votes. But at the same time, there is no guarantee that this will happen. Because if you think about it, Comteo and the LDP had a relationship for over 26 years, right? They had. It was like a very strong relationship. It was like a kind of like an awkward marriage of convenience. Because Comito is not really a conservative party, right? They have more in common with the. With this party that I merged with. But that relationship is still there at the local level. So when you ask the Comito voters all of a sudden, because this happened in a very. During a very short time, that they should flip their vote from their LDP representative that maybe they have a relationship with that is 10 or 20 years strong, and you ask them to vote for the opposition party that has completely different politics, there is no guarantee that that will happen.
- [12:03]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah, Hendel, thank you very much indeed. That's Hendel Hento, who's a contributing writer at the Japan Times in our Tokyo studio, and Professor John Nilsson Wright joining us from Cambridge. Many thanks to both. This is the Globalist. It's 2:11 in Washington, 7:11 here in London. Now, there's still an Internet blackout in Iran. There are reports that the civilian death toll is now at over 30,000 dead. And now tensions in the Middle east have ramped up again after Donald Trump announced he was sending an armada towards Iran just in case, resulting in threats of retaliation and a flurry of rerouted and canceled flights over the region as as he assembles his board of peace, largely made up of autocrats, monarchs and military leaders. I'm joined by Julie Norman, associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at UCL and in Zamanna, Rashid Monocle's Gulf correspondent, to look at how this might all play out. Well, Julie, when Trump says help is coming and he's sending an armada to Iran, what does this actually mean? What movement have we seen and how is Iran responding?
- [13:15]
Julie Norman
Well, good morning, Georgina. You know, we heard obviously a lot of statements from Trump earlier when tensions were rising in Iran about possible moves he might make. At the time, it looked like the US Actually was pretty ready to move ahead with a strike. And Trump apparently changed his mind on that pretty last minute. But I believe he does obviously want to keep that threat still very much on the table. And with Trump, any threat is indeed a credible threat. And we've seen that with Venezuela, we've seen it with previous operations in Iran in both of his terms. And so this reality of sending additional military assets to the Middle east is part of that. It is keeping that threat very much on the table for real action or for pressure on the Iranian regime. And I would just echo when you speak with many Israeli officials, the idea of more, an additional war, additional conflict with Iran is more of a question of when rather than if. So I think the region is very well aware that this can and likely will happen at some point, if not right away.
- [14:15]
Georgina Godwin
But do we know that the ships are actually on their way? He says he's sending it. Have we seen any proof of that? And what has Iran said? I mean, they've obviously vowed to retaliate.
- [14:25]
Julie Norman
Yeah, I mean, Iran has been very clear in their messaging, publicly and privately, that any kind of attack will warrant a full scale war response from them. And that would mean targeting Israel it would mean targeting military assets for the US in the region. And again, that's one reason why that previous action did not take place. The US Was aware that their position was not, was not quite ready for that. So it would I think obviously trigger something significant. And again, the US has been amping up their assets. We always the US already has about 40,000 military personnel across the Middle east in normal times, but they are increasing what are essentially more their military capabilities and defense capabilities as well.
- [15:07]
Georgina Godwin
So insy, how is this situation in Iran affecting the region, particularly concerning airline routes? Are the major carriers worried?
- [15:17]
Rashid Zamanna
So Georgina, we've seen over the last few days a number of European airlines, including klm, Lufthansa, Air Canada as well, all canceling flights and routes to Israel and to some parts of the Gulf. They say because of regional tensions. I think in the region there is a palpable sense that something is brewing. Governments are preparing, security establishments are gearing up. And Iran for its part, has been unequivocal, as Julie just mentioned, any US Attack on Iranian territory it says would be met with, with all out war. And I don't necessarily think that this means that war is in imminent, but there is a strong argument that this could also be coercive, signaling from Donald Trump a show of overwhelming force designed to pressure Iran into backing down, into recalibrating its regional behavior or stabilizing its internal unrest. When it comes to this idea of commercial aviation and canceling their flights, you know, airlines don't do this lightly. This isn't about fuel prices or seasonal demand. This is purely about risk assessment. Aviation insurers, regulators, security teams are essentially making the same call. The probability of an incident, accidental or deliberate, has risen to a level that they're no longer comfortable with. And then that's when the whole geopolitics comes into this argument. Just on that note, on whether any, any US Personnel has actually arrived in the Gulf, it's my understanding from some conversations that I've had that the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is on its way to the region alongside several guided missile destroyers. And at the same time, Washington has been exploring the deployment of additional air defense systems to the Middle east, systems designed explicitly to protect US Bases from Iranian missile or drone strikes if and when they decide to retaliate.
- [17:34]
Georgina Godwin
Julie, Several countries have now joined Donald Trump's Board of Peace, which of course is relevant within this context. I wonder who's on it, what powers it claims, how seriously it's been taken and also the fact that Trump has said he is the Chair in perpetuity. There's no clear legal status. I mean, what happens to something like this after his presidency and what amounts to what looks like a personal alternative to the United Nations?
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Julie Norman
Yeah, Georgina, there are so many questions around the Board of Peace. And I would emphasize to listeners that there are many, several different entities even within the Board of Peace. There's the big Board of Peace which you're alluding to, which Trump would chair. He has said he would be leader of this board even after his presidency, perhaps for life. This is the one that countries can pay $1 billion and be members of. And so this is kind of the overarching one, that there is worry that this is a kind of an alternative mechan to the UN and that Trump would use it as such, though he again has given quite typical mixed messaging on that. Underneath this Board of Peace, there is an Executive Board and then also a Gaza Executive Board. The Gaza Executive Board is the one that will most likely be dealing mostly with obviously Gaza. It includes Trump's inner circle, Rubio, Wyckoff, Kushner, as well as former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, and as well as now many different leaders from the region as well. Most of the Gulf states as well as Turkey have kind of agreed to serve on this. And yet underneath this board we have an actual Gazan technocratic committee of 15 individuals who are Palestinian. And this is the only one of the levels that actually includes Palestinian membership or representation.
- [19:22]
Georgina Godwin
We've just got a very short amount of time left insi. But we're hearing that the Rafah crossing is due to open soon. What more do we know?
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Rashid Zamanna
Yeah, well, I think, you know, there's been a lot of pressure and obviously a lot of conversations happening, particularly here in the Gulf, asking Israel to, to open up the Rafah crossing, to allow, to allow aid into, into Gaza. I think, particularly on this, this point of, of the Board of Peace, I think it's incredibly interesting because on paper the board is framed as a pragmatic mechanism, ceasefires, reconstruction, political dialogue. But when you actually look into it deeply, particularly for Gulf states, joining the Board of Peace is about influence. It allows them to shape post war discussions on Gaza maintain relevance in Washington as well. The irony here, and an important one, is that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now sitting side by side on a Board of Peace. Even as the two countries are engaged in something approaching a cold war of their own. Their disagreements over Yemen, over strategy, influence and end goals remain unresolved. So coordination has frayed massively and trust has been tested and It'll be interesting to see how even within the Gulf states actually they act on this board of peace set up by Donald Trump.
- [20:50]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. And just before we go, Julie, what do you make of the fact that the Rafah crossing may be open soon, but actually Palestinians themselves will have no agency over this?
- [20:59]
Julie Norman
Well, that's right. I do think if it opens it will be limited movement and again, it still will be controlled by non Palestinian actors and Israel will still maintain a kind of secondary checkpoint to maintain control over movement.
- [21:14]
Georgina Godwin
Julie Norman, Associate professor of Politics and International Relations at ucl, and Inzimum Rashi Monocle's Gulf correspondent, thank you both very much. Now still to come on the programme.
- [21:25]
Arthur Gerbey
The whole idea of AUV Compere was really to speak to everybody from the very elitist people from the Fashion Week to, I mean the people that are not that into fashion but that really feel the value that speaks to them.
- [21:38]
Georgina Godwin
We'll hear about an exciting new venture coming out of Paris. This is the Globalist Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. This is the Globalist. I'm Georgina Godwin and we'll continue now with today's newspapers. Joining me is Nina Dos Santos, international broadcast correspondent and the former CNN Europe editor. Nina, welcome once again.
- [22:35]
Nina Dos Santos
Good morning.
- [22:36]
Georgina Godwin
Let's start in Minnesota. This is just exploding almost literally. There have been protests over the weekend. There have been lots of questions whether the last person to be shot was in fact brandishing a firearm or not. What is the New York Times saying on this?
- [22:52]
Nina Dos Santos
Well, the New York Times is taking the position that yet again, just like when we saw a couple of weeks ago another US citizen apparently gunned down by these ICE agents. These are Immigration Customs and Enforcement agents who are rounding up illegal migrants in the United States, often with very, very violent methods against real strong opposition from local communities trying to peacefully protest. You'll remember a week or two, there was a mother of three who lost her life when she seemed to be driving away from these agents. Now another 37 year old American citizen, a nurse, appears to have been shot when he was trying to help somebody. And again, the Department of Homeland Security, the New York Times says, has launched into a false narrative spinning exercise that is convincing nobody. Because of course what's happening in Minnesota is that lots of local members of the community are filming these incidents when they're happening from multiple angles. And again, this is another incident where there are many different shots. When I say shots, I mean shots of video footage of the time when this individual, this 37 year old nurse was shot. Just to make it clear, the Department of Homeland Security said that he was brandishing a gun, that the officer that shot him shot back in self defense. It turned out that yes, this nurse did have a gun which he was allowed to carry legally, but he wasn't brandishing it. It hadn't been taken out of its hol. One of the other ICE agents had got him down on the floor and taken it off him. And then he was hit by a barrage not just of pepper spray but a hail of bullets. It appears as though, according to witness statements, they denied medical aid, were counting the bullet wounds even before he was dead.
- [24:39]
Georgina Godwin
Quite, quite extraordinary. And of course there's a huge amount of coverage on this across the papers and a lot of video footage too. This is very interesting that the public are able to verify that for themselves. I want to turn to the UK now because Keir Starmer, people are saying for some time now that he's in trouble, but there's been lack of a sort of credible person to take over from him. Well, now Andy Burnham wants to put himself in the ring, but he has been stopped from doing so. The Independent has a good piece on this.
- [25:10]
Nina Dos Santos
Yes, that's right. The Independent in many papers pointing out that Andy Burnham, he's an extremely popular mayor of Greater Manchester, Manchester, one of those really vibrant, really economically important cities in the north, in the northwest of England. Andy Burnham, let's face it, is somebody who's already had a career in Westminster previously under the Blair and Brown government. So he has had quite a bit of experience of government. He wants back into Westminster. He wants to come back from local politics in Manchester, ride this tidal wave of support in the north and challenge. It appears Keir Starmer for the future direction of the Labour Party has to be said, Andy Burnham is a bit further towards the left. He's advocating a more strident agenda when it comes to equalizing socioeconomic divides and also divides between the north and the south of the UK In England, that's always been an issue over successive Conservative Labour governments for years gone by. But he's been blocked at the first hurdle. Now you'll remember all those days when we had successive Conservative governments throwing out their leader every five minutes. It was much easier for Tories to do that because all they had to do is just write a bunch of letters in of no confidence. And if it passed a certain threshold, well, a leadership contest was triggered. It's more complicated with the Labour Party. You've got various different committees that culminate with the National Executive Committee. This is the big sort of board of the Labour Party, remember, of course, backed very heavily by some unions who here back Andy Burnham. That's the crucial thing. And even before he's been able to present himself as a candidate for a seat that's being vacated, a parliamentary seat, he's been blocked from standing down as mayor of Manchester and being able to present himself for this seat. Now, the real risk and jeopardy for the Labour Party is twofold here. One, reform. The far right party of Nigel Farage is the main challenger in this parliamentary seat that's coming up for grabs. So Labour may well be surrendering it to reform anyhow by preventing Burnham from standing for it. And also, Burnham isn't the only challenger that Keir Starmer faces. We're streeting. A very ambitious health secretary is waiting in the wings. We've also got Angela Rayner, the former deputy leader of the Labour Party is also from near Manchester. And there are some local elections coming up in the month of May that could, in any day, if they go really badly for Keir Starmer, spell the end of his time in office. So they've blocked it for now, Starmer and his allies. But it looks like this challenge is going to come back.
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Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. Let's go to Le Monde now, because France is getting a little nervous that Italy's stealing a march on their special relationship with Germany within the eu.
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Nina Dos Santos
Yeah, that's right. I've covered EU summits for years and years, as you'll remember, in my tenure as Europe editor and previously. And the Franco German axis, I've watched it in action ever since the Eurozone crisis, when you'd have people like Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel sort of rushing to show this, you know, demonstrate this joint show of force. France and Germany always on the same page, always, you know, the main motor that drives the eu. Well, that position is coming under attack from a very canny Giorgio Meloni of Italy, who has obviously noticed that Emmanuel Macron has irrit the relatively new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz on a number of occasions. On the one hand, you'll remember recently, France voted against the Mercource trade agreement that had been in the wings for years. And Years and years. The reason, obviously, France decided to do that was because of real fierce domestic backlash from French farmers who were fearing that they would face unfair trading conditions if Mercosur went through. The EU had to push Mercosur through, then France held out when it came to unfreezing and handing over those frozen Russian assets in the Belgian banking system to help Ukraine fund itself. Germany finally had thrown its political capital behind that, and Macron demurred. And then of course, there are all sorts of joint defense projects, including French fighter jet projects that have been in the balance for years and years. And suddenly the Germans are getting quite irritated by this. And Giorgio Meloni has realized these are the biggest trading partners inside the EU for Italian goods and services. And so she' sort of stolen the political high ground. And they've had a big summit over the course of the weekend in Italy. It's a trading relationship worth about 150 billion euros. So it isn't small fry here. And Macron probably should watch us back because he's only got one more year in office.
- [29:39]
Georgina Godwin
And finally, a very quick look at the wonderfully alliterative Pilates and prayers.
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Nina Dos Santos
Oh, this is a wonderful piece in the Guardian today. And it's all about how older men in the Asian community in Bradford, which is a city in West Yorkshire in the north of England. It has about 25% of its population come from the Pakistani community originally. So obviously it has a lot of mosques because they cater to the faith of its large Muslim community. But one of the clever imams has rolled out a program to help older Asian men in this community to practice 45 minutes of Pilates for their health after they have done their prayers. And it's become so successful that what they've done is they've rolled out these programs to other mosques across north of England in taken on as far afield as Malaysia. They're going to be having classes for women as well. And I think it just speaks to that broader concept of various places of worship, not just mosques, churches, you know, Buddhist sanctuaries and so on. Bringing people in with broader cultural and physical activity communities that improves their health, their well being and their spiritual well being as well.
- [30:50]
Georgina Godwin
Well, absolutely. I mean, this is quite a sedentary job, isn't it, what we do. I'm wondering if we could combine it with exercise. Would you like to just join me? Just going to try.
- [30:58]
Nina Dos Santos
You've done a piece on Pilates and you defended it, sir. Honestly, I remember.
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Georgina Godwin
Okay. As we do.
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Nina Dos Santos
You are actually doing them.
- [31:06]
Georgina Godwin
I am actually doing the squats because I'm feeling like I'm needing to do a little bit of exercise as we sit here.
- [31:10]
Nina Dos Santos
I'm staunchly refusing and observing.
- [31:12]
Georgina Godwin
Come on, Nina.
- [31:14]
Nina Dos Santos
Right.
- [31:14]
Georgina Godwin
Well, thank you very much indeed to Nina de Santos, exercise refusenik in this instance, although a very keen runner, also international broadcast correspondent. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio video. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Russia has launched one of its largest assaults on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, rocking Kyiv with overnight explosions and cutting power to more than 1.3 million properties nationwide. Ukrainian officials say over 1,300 buildings in the capital remain without heating as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Moscow is deliberately targeting critical infrastructure. Severe flooding in southern and central Mozambique has displaced hundreds of thousands of people and left vast areas underwater. At least 125 people have died this rainy season with authorities warning that further flooding could follow from heavy rains and upstream dam releases. And the national Australia Day celebrations were disrupted as mass rallies were held with indigenous groups calling for the national holiday to be moved. While anti immigration protesters also took to the streets today, Prime Prime Minister Anthony Albanese urged unity even as opinion polls show a record number of Australians want to keep the date unchanged. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. Voters in Myanmar cast ballots over the weekend in the third and final phase of the country's staggered general election taking place amid an active civil war and growing claims that the process lacks credibility. The military backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has already extended its lead after earlier arounds with large areas unable to vote at all and no timeline yet for when results will be announced. Well, I'm joined in the studio now by Dr. Ronan Lee, who's a visiting scholar at the International State Crime Initiative at Queen Mary's with a focus on Myanmar, the Rohingya and genocide, plus hate speech. Ronan, it's lovely to have you back in the studio with us. What happened then during the final round of voting, voting this weekend?
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Dr. Ronan Lee
Well, exactly the same as what's happened during the first two rounds. An unpopular election took place. It's stage managed by the military junta. This is obviously about the junta transitioning itself from being purely a military administration into being something that it can present the outside world as a democratic civilian administration. That won't of course, be the case. It's its political party is packed with ex military figures. It's the military's political party. And this is really about just putting a sheen on a regime transition. That's what we saw in this latest round, I mean, the first two rounds, the results were very clear. Early on, 90% of the seats went to the military's political party. I mean, that's a foregone conclusion, really. And part of the reason is that there's strict crimes for criticizing the election. There's 200 people in jail in Myanmar for criticising the election. You can face, I mean, two years in jail, you can face the death penalty for disrupting the election. So this is not an election that you would consider is marked by the general way that democracy works.
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Georgina Godwin
How does the ongoing fighting shape both the turnout and the credibility of the result?
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Dr. Ronan Lee
Well, there's very little credibility. 50% of the country couldn't vote. I mean, the military dictatorship doesn't control enough of the country to be able to have voters turn out in those places. There's no enthusiasm for participation in this election. I mean, I was in the country in 2015 when it was a free and fair election and people were queuing before the polls opened, there were hundreds of people outside polling booths wanting to vote. Turnout was very high. Turnout is around 50% in this election. And that's in a situation where it's a crime to criticise the election. You can't tell your neighbours, don't vote. You can't say to your friends, please don't vote and don't participate. That will land you in jail. So a low turnout in those circumstances really does tell us that the public just doesn't see this as legitimate. And the election hasn't been able to take place in large parts of the country.
- [35:43]
Georgina Godwin
So what then does the election achieve for the junta at this moment, where Myanmar is also facing genocide? Hearings at the International Court of Justice.
- [35:53]
Dr. Ronan Lee
So what it achieves for the junta is it gives it an ability to transition its leadership from. I mean, it had a coup 2021, it promised an election very quickly. There was a lot of unhappiness in Myanmar about the fact of the coup. The coup has been handled very badly. The leadership since 2021 has been very poor. There's been lots of criticisms of the military boss Minong line. This is about now transitioning to the next stage. This election was promised almost five years ago. That hasn't occurred. It's now happened. So this is about the military transitioning to the next phase of its control of the country. I think it's important to view this election not from the perspective of outsiders looking in, but from the perspective of the military looking out. And what they see is going on is that this is an Orderly transition to the next phase of military control. Now, outsiders look at this and think that it's chaos. I mean, having an election take place during a civil war, war where half the country can't participate and where the people who won the election in 2020, a free and fair election in 2020, are in jail. Outsiders would see that as absolutely a ludicrous situation, not a sensible way to conduct a democratic poll at all. But from the military's point of view, their view is that this is a very sensible election. They've conducted the election and now they will proceed to the next stage, which will be electing a new president, likely, but not guarant likely to be Minonglang.
- [37:20]
Georgina Godwin
So I mean, there's still no clear timetable for counting or announcing the results. Does that even matter?
- [37:25]
Dr. Ronan Lee
I mean, they'll announce the results when they want to and I think they'll announce them quite quickly because they know they've won. They knew they'd won before the election had taken place. There's really only one national political party in this election, it's the military's party, the Union, Solidarity and Development Party. When it's faced a free and fair election, it gets somewhere between 6% and the vote and 15% of the vote. This time it's at 90%. So that's a major change, a very big swing, and that's not something you would ever see in a free and fair election.
- [37:57]
Georgina Godwin
So what happens next? And might there be any intervention from the neighbours who are obviously being affected by this? Bangladesh, India? China also has a vested interest.
- [38:05]
Dr. Ronan Lee
There'll be no intervention from the neighbours whatsoever. All of the neighbours are more or less comfortable with Myanmar resolving these issues internally. I mean, ASEAN has been, the regional body has not been particularly strong on Myanmar, but even ASEAN is losing patience and they're not going to endorse this election outcome. But there'll be no external intervention into the country. China's more than happy for Myanmar. To the regional behemoth, China is more than happy for Myanmar to resolve these issues internally. The only thing would be if the events in Myanmar start spilling across the board border into China, and then China will take a much firmer view.
- [38:47]
Georgina Godwin
Ronan, thank you. That's Dr. Ronan Lee, visiting scholar at the International State Crime Initiative at Queen Mary's. This is Monocle Radio. Ukrainian fashion Week has been pushed back by a month after fresh Russian strikes crippled Kyiv's energy infrastructure. The shows were to take place in February, but they'll now run in mid March, once again testing how Ukraine's cultural Industries keep operating under wartime conditions, with large parts of the capital still without power. Organisers say the decision reflects both practical necessity and a determination to keep Ukraine visible on the global stage. Well, to give us more detail, I'm joined now by Lisa Ushchenko, who's head of International Comms at Ukrainian Fashion Week. Lisa, it's lovely to talk to you. What does staging an event like Fashion Week actually require in a city with rolling blackouts? Was postponement unavoidable? What do the blackouts do? Is it no light or is it actually about heat?
- [39:59]
Lisa Ushchenko
So it's no light and no heating. So that means that in Kyiv we have a few hours daylight and many residential buildings. For now, around 2000, they don't have heating at all. And at our main venue, the temperature has also dropped dramatically to 8 degrees. We had to make this hard but important decision to postpone and reschedule the Fashion Week.
- [40:32]
Georgina Godwin
So I wonder what it says about the role of fashion in Ukraine that this is actually still happening at all. I mean, it's fabulous that you guys are pushing forward and making it go ahead.
- [40:43]
Lisa Ushchenko
Thank you so much. Actually, that is our mission from 1997, to build a platform to give the Ukrainian designers opportunity to introduce their collections in Ukraine and to build the global presence for them. And especially now, the international support is truly important that it gives the opportunity of voices of Ukraine, Ukrainian designers to be heard abroad.
- [41:14]
Georgina Godwin
I wonder how those designers have adapted their production and their presentation since the full scale invasion began.
- [41:21]
Lisa Ushchenko
Currently, as we are facing new challenges, you know that multiple layers of clothing and puffer jackets are no longer just outfits. We choose to go outside. They have become our everyday work and home uniform. As it's really cold outside with freezing temperatures and inside with minimal temperatures, just couple of degrees plus and everyone are still working. And you know the designer behind German, Brandt, Julie Ermaluk, she mentioned on her social media this week that as long as we create, we live and thus we can be destroyed. And that truly inspires our team to work on and to give this opportunity to the designers who create their collections, despite the destruction and war.
- [42:17]
Georgina Godwin
So would you say that Fashion Week is now as much of a political statement as a cultural one?
- [42:24]
Lisa Ushchenko
We'd say that fashion as an integral part of culture has become an instrument to protect our identity and to speak to the world about Ukraine and what Ukrainians are going through through deeply symbolic collections and through the Swedish codes, through the language of fashion, if we can say so that doesn't need a translation.
- [42:54]
Georgina Godwin
And you mentioned international support. A little while ago. Does it really make a difference?
- [42:58]
Lisa Ushchenko
For sure. Over the past season that we held in Ukraine, despite the full scale war, we got some, some coverage and features on Vogue.com, vogue Business, Elle, France, Vanity Fair, Italy, New York Times, the Times and the support is truly significant and it gives the opportunity for us, for the designers, for the fashion community here in Kiev to be heard worldwide.
- [43:32]
Georgina Godwin
So in practical terms, what does this new time, timing, coming straight after Paris Fashion Week mean? Does it help Ukraine stay visible with that link to the sort of center of fashion, if you like, or does it risk being overshadowed?
- [43:46]
Lisa Ushchenko
We do believe it will just practically give time enough to the designers to prepare their collections as everyone is facing problems with electricity and heating. Moreover, it will give us opportunity to provide the venue that won't be freezing cold for everyone involved. And for sure it will still have the spotlight on Ukrainian fashion. Just the Fashion week will take place a little bit later still. We will not interfere with other fashion weeks. That is our core goal.
- [44:28]
Georgina Godwin
Now you mentioned that it's very much outerwear as indoor wear. Now. What sort of other, other trends do you expect to see on the catwalk? Is there a sort of defining Ukrainian look?
- [44:39]
Lisa Ushchenko
You know, the collections, they are so different and we couldn't say that we'll see just the outerwear, but the outerwear has become an important part of our daily routine as we literally are going to sleep in our outerwear.
- [45:00]
Georgina Godwin
Lisa Uschenko, head of International Comms at Ukrainian Fashion Week, thank you for joining us. This is the globalist on Monocle. Radio, iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft. Ophiuche Campeur, the iconic outdoor retailer in the 5th arrondissement of Paris, grew directly out of the social revolution sparked by the 19th century 1936 introduction of paid leave, which fundamentally changed access to leisure and the outdoors for ordinary French people. Now the company is launching their own in house brand for their 80th anniversary in close collaboration with the Parisian concept store Merci Merci's co founder Arthur Gerbey joined Monocle's editorial director Tyler Brulee in our Paris studio yesterday to talk about about how the partnership began, the standout pieces and what's next for the brand.
- [46:26]
Arthur Gerbey
The whole story of Au Vieux Compere is really like the serendipity of life, I would say. I just walk on the street of Paris and I saw a very elegant man with au vieux compere shopping bag and just appealed to me that something had to be done. Because I truly think that this brand is very interesting and this maison is very interesting because it has a way to resonate with everybody. You know, in France, there's memes on the Internet about ovio compere. Like going there is like a journey of itself. And when I saw this gentleman, I just decided that I had to do something. So I just called the office of Vivieu Campere. I got an operator and said, look, I would like to speak to Emeric de Rotre, who's the big boss, right? And they passed it to me and his response was, okay, let's meet. I mean, I didn't tell him why I wanted to meet, right? I'm actually in France. I think we're like a white belt of a small talk. So when we, we met, I talked about the weather, I talked about traffic jam. But it was very painful for me to do small talk, right? And at some point you look at me and say, why am I here? So I had to just jump in the water. And I just said, look, I just love your brand, I love what you do. And I think it's truthful, it's independent, it's family owned, and we're the same in a way. And I would like to do something with you. I would like to develop products which has auto compare on it and that you're proud of and that you could sell in your store and that we could sell in our store and that could be sold in independent store or even in auvial compere store that we would operate.
- [47:55]
Petri Birtsoff
Tell me about what you've chosen to extract. How is the collaboration working? So when you looked at what was there, is it about just pushing Auver Campere as sort of a name to emblazon it? Has it been an edit? How are you interpreting what they do?
- [48:09]
Arthur Gerbey
So it's very funny because right now it's Fashion Week in Paris. And Fashion Week is about celebrating something exciting, exceptional. And most of the time it's about the performance. It's not about the everyday life, it's not about speaking to everybody. Right. The whole idea of a vicompere was really to speak to everybody from the very elitist people from the Fashion Week to. I mean, the people that are not that into fashion, but that really feel the value that speaks to them. And this is really something that I've been obsessed about since day one. And Emrik, the owner of, really followed me on this and we really agreed. Agreed. France is not like Italy or the US In a way. It's a very elitist country. It's a fantastic country. I'm in love with my country, but it's very elitist in the way it's constructed. It has not always been this way. When you look at Charlotte Perrion, what she did in Les Arc, the whole station with all this furniture, it was not very expensive furniture at that time, but it was well thought of. Today, I feel that this way of approaching things has a little bit disappeared. And you don't make things that go throughout generation that last and that are really thought of. And yeah, when you look at Italy and the us, they celebrate everyday life. This is really in the culture. France, maybe less, I would say.
- [49:24]
Petri Birtsoff
Let's get to the grid of it, though. What are the three star items? I mean, you saw this very chic, elegant gentleman with a shopping bag. But if I walk into mercy, what is flying off the shelves or the rails?
- [49:35]
Arthur Gerbey
So actually, to be very transparent and very truthful, those items will never enable you to climb on top of the Mont Blanc. This. This was very important to us since the beginning. Right.
- [49:45]
Petri Birtsoff
You have to put that disclaimer out right now, just in case. Yes, I get it. Yeah.
- [49:49]
Arthur Gerbey
This is more a way of approaching time. And the whole Cong idea was really to transform time into what economists say is a common good. Right. And this is very. Something that is important for us is the way that when you wear au vieux compere, it's a way of saying that you want to seek this time that flows differently when you're away, whether it's contemplation, whether it's a family moment moment or friend moment, whether it's performance. Performance time is different when you're not in the city, when you're not at home, and when you're outdoors, I would say. So we did those articles which are very funny. We did a T shirt, which is, you know, like the concert band, where we have all the dates of tours, the tour dates. Yeah. We did this with all the bank holidays in France.
- [50:33]
Georgina Godwin
That's a long shirt.
- [50:34]
Arthur Gerbey
Yeah, that's a long shirt. So we did one like. So this is the outdoor tour and this was very fun to make. And since the beginning also, we really wanted to build a brand that was thick and was not only about clothes and T shirts. And so we did blankets. We partnered with a ceramist from Eindhoven, which repeated items in ceramics like flashlights or ropes or clips. But in a very funny way, we created a granola. The whole collection is really about celebrating this brand that has been around forever and that has been always here and always. You know, there's this French saying, le gasseur, which means the guy that you can count on. And this is really what Au Vieux Compere is.
- [51:22]
Petri Birtsoff
Just before we go, maybe not giving away any state secrets, but what's coming up next for Merci? What's in the public domain? What can we look forward to for summer or over the horizon? What can you share?
- [51:33]
Arthur Gerbey
We're always looking to open. We have to find a space we're dying to open in London or in New York. We have to find a space that makes sense for us and that is truthful to who we are. I don't see mercy in a very crowded street. I mean, the playbook that Marie Francisco en Jean Lucille Bernard Cohen, of course, and then Eliza Strock wrote in 2009 when they opened, is really something very special. And you cannot just go on Madison Avenue and open a big mercier. That will never work. And, yeah, there's always something happening. There's going to be a very nice release very soon about a content we made in store, which is about a song linked to Au Vieux compere actually sounds good.
- [52:11]
Petri Birtsoff
Something good for audio, then it'll work well on radio. It sounds like. Yeah, excellent. Listen also listeners, if anyone has any ideas on locations in London or New York. Of course, you can always drop Artura a note or drop us a note.
- [52:25]
Hendel Hento
And we will forward it on.
- [52:26]
Julie Norman
On.
- [52:26]
Petri Birtsoff
Thank you. Wonderful to chat. Thank you very much.
- [52:27]
Arthur Gerbey
Thank you, Tyler. Merci Buku.
- [52:29]
Georgina Godwin
That was Arthur Jerby, co founder of the Parisian concept store Merci, speaking to Monocle's editorial director, Tyler Brulee. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Finally, on today's show, we head to Helsinki for a roundup of news from the Nordics. Joining me now is our correspondent in the region, Petri Birtsoff. Petri, it's always lovely to speak to you. How are you today? Is it very well. Snowy?
- [52:56]
Petri Birtsoff
It is very snowy. Good morning, Georgina. Yes, super snow. I just. Looking out the window, there's like half a meter of snow. Everything is covered. Rooftops, the ground, the trees, Everything is covered in a layer of blanket of beautiful white snow. Winter paradise, really.
- [53:10]
Georgina Godwin
Well, the same actually, in New York. I'm told that it's absolutely huge. 16 to 18 centimeters. Also settling for once, it's, it's going to be in there. But this is where our two stories come together. Because of course, course, Danes, not necessarily Finns, but Danes, where it's also snowing, I would point out, have started boycotting US Brands. Now this is a big piece that's been picked up in the region. Tell us more about this.
- [53:36]
Petri Birtsoff
Yeah, well, actually, I mean, partly Finns as well, Swedes, Norwegians, but mostly Danes have started boycotting, as you said, U.S. brands. And they have these apps in the sort of iPhone, Android app stores, different apps that have shot to the most popular app ranking. And these are apps that basically, you know, they show consumers, you can just scan a barcode in a supermarket. It shows where the product is from. And then it also proposes, you know, you can block a certain country. In this case, the Danes are of course blocking out, blocking United States.
- [54:13]
Georgina Godwin
And this is because of Greenland, of course.
- [54:15]
Petri Birtsoff
Yeah, of course, because of Greenland, yes. And then the apps suggest alternative products to you. So, you know, they're switching to local. It says here in the story, it says that they're switching to local cosmetics, they're switching to local Coca Cola alternatives, whatever they might be, even local streaming services. And then of course, also canceling US Holidays. So this whole Greenland saga is really just bringing Danes together. And I mean, obviously this is not going to bring down the US Economy, but I think people just want to have. Some people want to have a feeling that they're making a difference. They just want to show what they think in some way. And we live in the global market economy and boycotting American products is a good way to do that.
- [54:59]
Georgina Godwin
Let's move to Sweden. Now this is an architecture story really about the new Nobel Center.
- [55:07]
Petri Birtsoff
Yes, exactly. So Sweden recently revealed the designs for a new Nobel center to be built in the center of Stockholm. This is going to be completed in 2031. It's a very expensive product. The buildings are designed by the famous David Chipperfield architects. And now there's a local movement, basically wants to petition the city to redesign the building. The locals don't like it at all. It's a very boxy, modern building in the center of Stockholm. Of course, everybody who's been to Stockholm knows it's a beautiful sort of historic neoclassical old town. And the locals believe that, you know, this, this, this modern architecture is, is in conflict with the, with the sort of the soul and the architectural style of the city. And people also feel that, you know, they were not consulted at all when, when the, when, when, when this building was designed. I mean, obviously this is how it always goes, but people still feel like it's such an integral part of their city that they should have some kind of a say in. In how the city looks.
- [56:05]
Georgina Godwin
No, absolutely. And you've got, as you say, this shining representation with Gamla Stan that you look at Gamla Stan and you want to see that reflected back in any new build.
- [56:15]
Petri Birtsoff
Exactly, exactly, exactly. And people have called this David Chipperfield's design like a Minecraft architecture, because it's very boxy. It almost looks like somebody played with Tetris pieces and blocks. And that's what it looks like. But, you know, listen, this sort of ties into a big debate about modern architecture versus classical historic architecture. And do we want to just basically build this sort of pastiche of old styles when we build a new building, or should modern architecture reflect the times that we live in? Let's not get into that debate. But, I mean, it just clearly ties into that.
- [56:47]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah, let's instead talk about Eurovision, because all the new songs for Finland's national selection for Eurovision are in, but people have been up saying that actually, it doesn't really matter about Eurovision, it's itself what's important for Finnish local artists is to be in that selection in the first place.
- [57:05]
Petri Birtsoff
Exactly, exactly. So the Finnish Eurovision qualifiers is called the New Music Competition, translated into English, Oden Musikilpalo in Finnish. And it's a. It's by far the biggest, sort of. Has the best production value, the. The biggest platform for musicians in Finland and. And some performing artists, actually, they say they call it the universal for performing artists. So just to get in and get that exposure and all that practice of a big production is actually very valuable. And it says here, this is from the Finnish national broadcaster. It says here that, especially now with Eurovision, also has become sort of politically questionable in many circles. So it might even be better not to win Eurovision, but actually just the qualifying and just to take part. And then actually looking at the past here, here, a lot of the biggest artists in Finland, they haven't won the qualifiers, but they've been the second or the third, and then they've just shot to the top of the charts because.
- [58:00]
Georgina Godwin
It'S very, very good for the local market, the domestic market. Right?
- [58:03]
Petri Birtsoff
It is, exactly. Exactly.
- [58:05]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. So who are we likely to see in Eurovision from Finland?
- [58:10]
Petri Birtsoff
Ooh, that's a tough one. I mean, it depends whether Finn's always, you know, whether they're going to go for another sort of a kind of odd sort of off the beaten path alternative like Gari a couple of years ago or more traditional. I think there's this violin player, Linda Lampenus, who's performing together with a big Finnish artist, Pete Parkonet. It's probably going to be more traditional style, but that would be my pick. But then it really depends on what the voters want. Do they want to go for the traditional pick or something adventurous?
- [58:39]
Georgina Godwin
Petri, thank you very much indeed. That's Petri Boff, our Monocle. Hello, Helsinki correspondent. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Chris Chermak, Tom Webb and Hassan Anderson, our researcher, Anneliese Maynard, and our studio manager, Mariella Bevan. After the headlines, there's more music on the way. My colleagues will be here with the briefing. That's live at midday in London. And I'll return on the Globalist at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. Listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do each other better. That's what banking is to us, not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.