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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 5th February 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, the final nuclear guardrail expires. But will the end of the New START treaty between Russia and the US change anything between the two nations and indeed across the world? Also coming up in the next 60.
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobukidze
Minutes, we have challenges with the European Union. There is very limited communication, despite the fact that officially Georgia is the candid country for the EU accession.
Emma Nelson
The Prime Minister of Georgia talks to Bottlecore Radio about what keeps him awake at night. We'll hear about a meeting of populist minds as the Czech Prime Minister heads to Rome for talks with Giorgia Meloni. Plus, an update on the countdown to elections in Japan. The newspapers and it's very much about.
Kleber Mendonza Figlio
Truth, social truth, human truth. And that has to be present in the image. It has to be very much what the film is. And I'm happy with that sense of truth, which you could pick it up even if you're not Brazilian.
Emma Nelson
An interview with the man crowned best director at the Cannes Film Festival, Kleber Mendonza Figlio tells us about the secret agent. That's all coming up on the Globalist, live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. In successive phone calls, the Chinese President Xi Jinping has spoken to Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin about the war in Ukraine, the situation in Taiwan and also Iran. Asian stock markets have slumped tracking losses on Wall street, with tech firms under particular pressure. And Colombia's largest drug cartel says it's suspending peace negotiations with President Gustavo Petro's government after he agreed with Donald Trump to attack its leader. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. First, the final treaty limiting Russia and America's nuclear arsenals has expired. The ending of the so called New START programme means that there remains no legal restraint on the number of strategic nuclear warheads each nation may possess. Well, the announcement has been immediately followed by warnings of the return of a major nuclear arms race between Washington and Moscow. But are greater risks to be found elsewhere among other nuclear powers, or would be nuclear powers online? Jonah on the line by goranogurcic, who's Monocle's security correspondent and and in the studio, Georgia Cole, research associate for the International Security Programme at Chatham House. First time in the Monocle studio. Good morning, Georgia. Good morning, Gurana. If I can just begin with you. The New Start treaty itself signed in 2010, so long enough ago, the names Medvedev and Obama are on the document. How important was it at the time?
Georgia Cole
It was hugely important. So if we just go back to the sort of time when this was signed and then once it went into effect, it was actually all happening in Prague. It followed the reset that happened here in Switzerland, in Geneva, when Hillary Clinton was then Secretary of State and Sergei Lavrov, who is still Russia's foreign minister, pressed that infamous button that was supposed to say reset, even though it said overload. So that might have foreshadowed what would have happened some 15 years later. But basically it was part and parcel of US Reset with Russia, given everything that was going on in the previous years, most notably Russia's invasion of Georgia. And it signaled this sort of new commitment from the Obama administration towards a world that would be rid of nuclear weapons. If we recall, Obama was very big on this sort of campaign. So back then, huge deal. And then it was a huge deal again when the Biden administration in 21 managed to actually affect the extension of New START. And here we are five years later, on the day that we are now without any sort of agreement that would limit US and Russian nuclear weapons. We have already throughout the years gotten rid of other treaties and deals that would have prohibited or significantly limited different types of systems that would support that. And so these days, the treaty, two largest nuclear arsenals on earth are completely unrestrained by any arms control treaty. So we are left without guard.
Emma Nelson
We don't have guardrails. Thank you for that. Guarana, Georgia. What went wrong here?
UBS Announcer
Well, see, the treaty was due to expire actually five years ago. But under the terms of the treaty, there was allowed a single five year extension which was agreed at the last hour between Biden and Putin. Now, under the terms of the treaty, another extension wasn't allowed. But in September last year, Putin offered a voluntary one year extension to abide by the core limits of the treaty. And at the time, Trump said that he thought it was a good idea, but nothing more formal happened on that. And Trump's recently said that if it expires, which it now has, that they'll just do a better one. Unfortunately, that's incredibly unlikely. So now we're left with this potentially prolonged period of time without any nuclear arms control.
Emma Nelson
You mentioned before we came on air that one of the reasons why the efforts to try to save this treaty, Georgia failed was because there are simply not enough staff in Washington to actually do the job anymore. Is that correct? Yeah.
UBS Announcer
So after the Trump administration's mass layoffs of the civil service, there simply isn't the technical or diplomatic expertise left to be able to engage in nuclear arms control discussions with Russia. And we saw this Putin actually said a couple of weeks ago that they didn't have anyone to reach out to within the administration about the new start expiration.
Emma Nelson
Coming back to you, Gana, and the fact is that Dmitry Medvedev, who signed this agreement in 2010 yesterday said that the world should be alarmed. Where are the greatest areas of concern?
Georgia Cole
Well, there are things that Medvedev says that I wouldn't necessarily pick up on, given that he has profiled himself now as basically one of the greatest sort of hawks when it comes to all things Russia's foreign policy. But leaving to do this aside, of course there are worries now around what this means for broader sort of security, for the kind of spirals that it might offset, given that it certainly poses no more limits in terms of modernization and then again acceleration of nuclear programs that are already happening in US but also Russia and most notably China. And I think this is one of the sort of variables that we need to underscore because, yes, I would completely agree that in D.C. there is a lot of hollowing out that has been happening in terms of the expertise, but also political will to negotiate any kind of extension or even a new deal altogether. But there is another thing, and that's been a long standing issue, which is that this arms race these days is not just a US Russia race, but it's a three way dynamic that involves China. And because China's arsenal is growing so so fast, it's still way smaller than what US And Russia have, but it's predicted to basically reach those sort of levels in about 10 years or so. So in that sense, we don't just talk about US And Russia, but any potential deals moving forward would need to get Beijing to the table as well. And then of course, what's another huge concern is that given all the strategic volatility the Trump administration and now given that there are no agreements to constrain proliferation, in this sense, it does create some sort of uncertainty and also potential signals to U.S. allies and partners that they might also start proliferating, but also not just them. Because if we consider who was the last power to join that club, North Korea, we obviously see a trend line that's not pointing towards again, that world without nukes, but rather a world that increasingly looks more towards the future with more nuclear arsenal.
Emma Nelson
And it's perhaps Jordan, those great irony that the Chinese president Xi Jinping has just had phone calls with both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin successively in the last few hours talking about other issues such as Ukraine and also Iran and, and Taiwan. But this idea that Gharana's talking about signifies this general absence of international trust, doesn't it? That we all talk about the collapse of the rules based order. But when you do have the two main players from the nuclear race in the 1980s deciding that there are no checks and balances anymore, if you're sitting in Pyongyang, if you're sitting in Taiwan, if you're sitting in India, Pakistan, wherever you now. But is there now this sense that actually not only are the guardrails off for us and Russia, but anyone now can have a go?
UBS Announcer
Yeah, I think what we're seeing now is sort of a return to a world where might is right.
Kleber Mendonza Figlio
Right.
UBS Announcer
And we've seen that even in the last couple of weeks with blatant violations of international law and a lot of, you know, the Trump administration's actions. So I think this could potentially lead to incentives for proliferation. Obviously, Iran is the big concern right now, but there's also been concerns about what we call friendly proliferation, which could be, you know, Western countries and Western allies wanting to develop their own indigenous nuclear programs. So we have seen some calls for this within countries like Japan and South Korea and Germany and Poland. Those calls do remain very fringe at the moment. But if sort of the trends continue in the way that we're seeing, and if particularly the US is increasingly seen as an unreliable actor, then we could certainly see further proliferation.
Emma Nelson
Karana, where does this go in 10, 15, 20 years time when tempers are cooled, minds are clearer? I mean, who will be there to make the next deal? George has talked about the fact that currently in the White House there is literally no one who could sit down and work this thing out. But where do we look to a return of order?
Georgia Cole
Well, that is a great question. And we can only do some sort of scenario analysis. I wouldn't say that any sort of future is predetermined. But currently, this sort of direction of travel, if it's not bent, it does point towards potentially more states with nuclear capability, which is a concerning thing. Having said that, of course, and again, what I always stress is that the international system is not composed only of, of these three major nuclear states that are. There are various others. We've already mentioned some of the key middle and regional powers, they do have agency, but the problem is that if they feel this sort of security threat and basically environment where they can't necessarily rely on allied kind of extended deterrence and umbrella of protection, then they will have those incentives. So we are living in dangerous times and some of these things that are these days decided will, will inevitably have a kind of long horizon sort of future. And again, if things continue under the leadership of the present people who occupy offices in Washington, Moscow and Beijing, or their kind of fellow travelers, then it doesn't bode well for the world security for sure.
Emma Nelson
Gharana Gurdich, Monocle Security correspondent, and Georgia Cole, Research Associate for the International Security Program at Chatham House, thank you both for joining me on the Globalist. You're listening to Monocle Radio. Now let's head to Dubai, where the Monocle team is based at the World Government Summit. World leaders have been gathering to discuss their principal challenges, both diplomatically and domestically. And I'm joined by Tom Edwards, who's at the World Government Summit in Dubai with the Monocle Team. Good morning, Tom. How are things on day three?
Tom Edwards
Emma, listen. Day three has started and continues exactly the same relentless pace as days one and two, to be honest. Incredible turnover of global leaders across government and business, as we've been describing on Monocle Radio over the last couple of days. Here alongside me, two of my illustrious colleagues who've been carried along on this incredible tide of, of people. Insy and Andrew Tucker, both still with me. Andrew, listen, you've been a busy man again this morning. You were on the main stage, the main plenary. It's like a, like an aircraft hangar in there. I could barely see you up there on the stage. You were just a little dot in the distance.
Rob Cameron
I was like Andrew Stiles playing glass do.
Tom Edwards
I was. I was on the big plenary stage.
Rob Cameron
There's 1500 people in the audience and.
Tom Edwards
I was interviewing Santiago Calatrava and also.
Rob Cameron
The director general of the municipality here, essentially the mayor, talking about. Again, it really fascinating how the conversations change because they're talking about in past.
Tom Edwards
About AI impacting architecture and design, but.
Rob Cameron
Today it was all about soul and.
Tom Edwards
How we make places where I don't. You create memories that you feel better.
Rob Cameron
So it was a really good conversation.
Tom Edwards
Indeed. Speaking of good conversation, I mean, you and I caught up with, I think, what are we up to about double figures for presidents and prime ministers? One really stood out for him yesterday was, of course, the somewhat controversial, certainly compelling prime minister of Georgia. And you and I chatted to him. That was a. I don't know what you. I don't know what you think. That was a bit of a standout moment for me. It was, I'd say, very controversial. In fact, you know, there's a lot kind of swirling around Georgia right now. Election fraud, election corruption is one of those topics. And we spoke to him about that and of course, there positioning on the war in Ukraine as well. And it was just such a fascinating conversation because it's. It's very rare that you get to have the time that we had with a president or a prime minister who has got a lot of issues in his own country and the bordering countries as well. And so we put all of those concerns to him. And actually, you know, to his credit, he was responsive and answered all of our questions. No leaving the Monocle Radio studio here in. We haven't driven anyone out just yet. Well, Emma, if you'll indulge us, let's actually listen to a little bit of that chat with Georgian prime Minister, Iraqi, Kobukidse, India and I chatted to him yesterday. Let's take a listen.
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobukidze
We are really looking forward to the success of the negotiations because we are part of this region and of course, it affects also the situation for Georgia. It's crucially important for us to have the end to this war. Peace is crucial for everybody. So we are very much hopeful that this war will end soon.
Tom Edwards
Can I ask a bit about Georgia's positioning on this prime minister? You know, when we spoke yesterday to a very senior diplomat here in the uae, they said the reason they feel that they could host these trilateral conversations is because actually they haven't taken a side on this conflict. What has Georgia's positioning been? Well, we are aware. But how have you evolved that positioning over time to where we are today?
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobukidze
So Georgia's position is very clear. From the very beginning, we supported all the relevant decisions, resolutions, international acts supporting Ukraine's sovereignty, Ukraine's territorial integrity, and also condemning Russia's military aggression. And it has never changed because we are committed to the international law principles and we are always vocal about that. And we have our own problems. 20% of our territories is occupied by The Russian Federation. And we understand very well what does this mean. We understand the value of peace, what is the effects of the war. So our choice is to be pragmatic. And this approach works well.
Tom Edwards
Can I just ask about the engagement with the west and I guess with Western media in particular, There's a tendency to cast things very black and white. Pro Russia, pro peace, or pro Russia, pro Ukraine? Are you saying that there's actually an advantage for Georgia to take a more nuanced position, to retain ties, to keep talking with Moscow, for example? Is there actually an opportunity for Georgia to leverage that more nuanced position in order to deliver better outcomes? Of course, for Ukraine, but also crucially, for Georgia and the Georgian people.
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobukidze
Yeah. So in general, we want to have friendly relations with everybody with regard to Russia, we have no diplomatic relations after the occupation of our two historic regions. So we have a special case. We have our challenges also with the European Union. We had more challenges with the United States under the previous administration, but now the situation has changed a little bit, so there is no tensions anymore during the last couple of months after the inauguration of the new president in the United States. But we have challenges, special challenges with the European Union, which has no solid ground. I would say there is very limited communication, despite the fact that officially Georgia is the candid country for the EU accession. So we cannot understand, of course we understand. What are the reasons behind. Unfortunately, these reasons are not positive, let's say, but we are committed to our goal to become the full fledged member of the European Union. And we are hopeful that especially after the end of the war in Ukraine, the attitudes will change and it will positively affect the relationships between the EU and Georgia.
Tom Edwards
You must be frustrated by the fact that you still have this very fraught relationship with Europe and you're trying to get into the eu, but it's being blocked.
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobukidze
Yeah. So we are disappointed because if you look, for example, at all international rankings indexes, which are provided by non biased, reputable international organizations, Georgia is the best among all the candidate countries. With regard to the low level of corruption, we are doing better than all candidate countries and we are doing better than 8, 9 European Union member countries even now. But the public statements are not in line with this achievement. It's the same with the level of democracy, human rights, political pluralism, medieval pluralism. If you look, for example, at Georgia and then Moldova and Ukraine, there is a huge discrepancy and there is a huge difference because we are much more ahead. So we are much more successful with regard to, again, Democracy, human rights, rule of law, but also low level corruption. The liberal economic policies, successful economic policies. During the last five years, for example, we managed to increase the difference between the Georgian and Malovan GDP is by around 12 billion USD. Our GDP is even now around 37 billion.
Tom Edwards
Just in terms of the domestic political picture, obviously there are some question marks from without, which is primarily the Brussels position on sort of political and electoral transparency. And obviously there are still some quite active demonstrations, some big pro European demonstrations that take place in the country periodically. What are the primary challenges? If you're in charge, where there is some kind of disagreement or there's some controversy about it, does that make it just very difficult to prosecute your agenda or do you retain confidence? You've pointed to some very positive numbers there in GDP terms that you can continue the trajectory that you want Georgia to set.
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobukidze
So quite often we have to listen to the very negative statements from the European bureaucracy about Georgia. That's why we are saying that we should launch the transparent communication and talks. When somebody talks about the rallies, for example, and how the Georgia government deals with those rallies, and what is the media situation in Georgia and what is the situation in other areas of human rights, etc. Let's talk transparently so that everybody understands who is right and who is not. We are not afraid of this kind of, of public talks and the transparent talks, but the other side is afraid. That's how you can judge who is right and who is not.
Tom Edwards
You mentioned there about the corruption rate being considerably lower than some of your your neighboring countries. But there has been huge scrutiny around recent elections, in particular, huge scrutiny around whether there have been issues in voting and voting calculations as well. Can you give us a response to that? Have you been wholly transparent around the elections in Georgia?
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobukidze
So that's also one of the good examples which shows that the transparent talks are important because we can talk transparently about the elections, how they have been held in Georgia. We introduced for the first time the electronic counting, electronic registration, electronic procedures for the elections. And there is just no reason to put these election results under question because finally the Georgians were coming to the election precincts. They were voting through the electronic machines, they got registered through the electronic machines. And finally the commission members were just pushing the button and printing the checks reflecting the election. So there was even no technical possibility to manipulate anything in this election. We invited all the international observer organizations, all the possible organizations, including the OEC oder, including the European Parliament, including the peace delegation and all others, some smaller observer organizations. Everybody was there and nobody was able to provide any evidences for not just systemic but even any kind of more or less essential election manipulation. So that's why we are saying let's have an open conversation, transparent conversation about how the elections have been held in Georgia because we have to look also in front, we have to look at the next elections. Maybe they can suggest what can be improved for the 2028 parliamentary elections.
Emma Nelson
And that was the prime minister of Georgia there talking to Tom Edwards at the World Government Summit in Dubai. Still to come on today's program, We meet the team behind the Secret Agent, the Oscar nominated Brazilian film taking the box offices by storm. Stay with us. On the globalist.
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Emma Nelson
Let's continue now as today's newspapers. Joining me in the studio, Inga Thoradar, his chief catalyst officer at the philanthropic institution Kanaloa and former senior editor at BBC and cnn. Very good morning to you. Welcome back, Inga.
Inga Thoradar
Good morning. Thank you.
Emma Nelson
I think we do have to cover the continued fallout or the continued coverage of what has happened with this release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, millions of files still to come, but still the latest swathe has effectively plunged the UK Government into crisis, profound crisis.
Inga Thoradar
Yeah, it has. I mean, what began really as a pretty routine diplomatic appointment has snowballed into another leadership challenge for Keir Starmer. And this of course, as you say, after further revelations about Peter Mendelssohn's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Now, Keir Starmer is trying to control this. He came out yesterday and said he was going to release the document about Peter Manderson's conduct. However, he said he was going to do it on his own terms. Now that backfired quite considerably on him and people from his own party now have forced him to do a U turn, which is one of many U turns that Keir Starmer has had to make recently and release the full document. Well, as much as the security services will allow him. But I think that this sort of initial response from him of saying he would release it on his own term really angered an already fractured Labour Party. And Keir Starmer is now facing a significant challenge to his leadership and one that he could Ill afford, given how low he is in the polls right now.
Emma Nelson
It is astonishing how a lack of transparency is something that politicians fail to appreciate is not a good thing. But when it comes to the way that just this, the appointment of Peter Mandelson as the ambassador to the United States has far more reaching consequences than just a British sort of like domestic political crisis.
Inga Thoradar
Yeah, I mean, it does because I mean, it exposes a certain weakness in the system, be that in the way he was vetted or even the willingness to overlook things. And I think that that is really what people are sort of challenging now is that Keir Summer stands up and said he admitted that he knew that Mandelson had that close relationship and yet still appoints him. He does say that Mendelssohn repeatedly lied to him, however, have been enough for him to know the extent of the relationship, to not appoint him. And of course, his aide, Morgan McSweeney is in trouble as well. So I think that the crisis here in the UK and the ripples from the Epstein, the latest batch of the Epstein files, seems to be much greater here than they are in the U.S. for example, could yet claim its biggest scalp.
Emma Nelson
Let's move to an article in Politico which is talking about the Finns being angry about the use of the NATO term Article 5. Now, just to explain Article 5, that's a mutual defense principle, which means that if you any country invaded by an external nation, it is an attack on one, is an attack on all. What is the problem that the Finns are having on what is an arguably pretty straightforward idea?
Inga Thoradar
Well, I mean, this exclusive in Politico that is quoting cables obtained from the US State Department are showing that Finland had urged US Officials not not to describe future security pledges to Ukraine as Article 5 like. So not Article 5, but Article 5 like. I think that distinction is important because that could potentially undercut this mutual defense clause at the heart of the NATO military alliance. And you know, if you look at these two countries, so Ukraine is not part of NATO and therefore is not entitled to the Article 5 clause. Finland, of course, like maybe other countries that have in the north, like Sweden, have been watching Russia increasingly closely since the invasion in 2022. And both of them applied and entered NATO very recently because of that. So to them, this is an existential issue, that the Article 5 applies to them and therefore shouldn't apply to other countries that are not part of NATO. And obviously Article 5 is mainly seen as a deterrence more than anything else. So I think what they're Warning against is the language and this undermining of the principle of NATO and what it could mean for its members.
Emma Nelson
Let's move on to another story in the New York Times. I've mentioned it in the news headlines at the start of the program. This successive series of phone calls that Xi Jinping has had, first and foremost with Donald Trump and then with Vladimir Putin. This is now being covered in the New York Times. And the glorious thing is that, well, not so glorious, but the great thing is that revisionism has already kicked in.
Inga Thoradar
It has. I mean, it is very interesting, isn't it, to see that both sides say the corps was very friendly and constrained, but they highlighted very different points. Now, this is not unusual. Of course, they're playing to domestic audiences, but the US Very much framed it around economic cooperation, global issues, soya beans, more importantly. And China said that the core of it was the political issue of Taiwan and the red line security concerns that they had. Now, that wasn't mentioned by the US And I think maybe perhaps not that Trump ever finds himself or considers himself in a weak position. But obviously, recent events with Venezuela, Greenland and others have perhaps not made it as easy for the US to be standing firm on other people's interest in other sovereign countries.
Emma Nelson
Indeed, because the Chinese have focused so much more about the US Handling arms sales to Taiwan with extreme caution, which is something that is Xi Jinping delivering a very, very clear message to Donald Trump there, but softening it with the prospect of soybeans. And the first thing that you think is, okay, if you're going to increase imports of American soybeans into China, you're going to make Donald Trump happ. We wonder whether he will capitulate on his more, you know, on the harder side of things when it comes to protection of Taiwan.
Inga Thoradar
Yeah, I mean, I'm not quite sure what the Taiwanese would think about them being, you know, traded for soybeans. But that seems to be the case that they find the sort of, well, let's say that the sort of access to Trump is through economics and, you know, trade and tariffs and that's what he's been talking about. So perhaps by mentioning that first and saying that they will increase, you know, and soybeans obviously was at the heart of the tariff war back in, you know, a few months ago. So now that they seem to have done a U turn on that, they are hoping that Trump will not go against them on Taiwan. But I mean, it's interesting to say, though, that she really just reiterated China's position that Taiwan is an integral part of China. They haven't gone further than that in this phone call. Apart from this, as you say, this sort of warning against the arms sales to the, to Taiwan.
Emma Nelson
Okay, finally, Winter Olympics have started off already. The curling has begun. Not without incident. We have the opening ceremony when next coming up on Friday. And Monocle will be there. We will be there from next Monday. And for the next two weeks, we will be out in Milan talking to the great and the good involved in the, in the, in the Winter Olympics. But let's go back to the curling and the fact that it didn't happen without a little bit of a hiccup. So there was a problem with the power, which is really bad when you're trying to keep the ice cold.
Inga Thoradar
That is true. Well, and you also need the lights to see what you're doing, so that helps. But, but yeah, there was a minor hiccup where the, the power seemed to go for about 10 minutes or so. They fixed it fairly quickly and, you know, the lights were turned back on and that was it. I only missed about 10 minutes of play. But yeah, as you say, the Winter Olympics have started, even if the opening ceremony isn't until tomorrow. And I mean, it's not without sort of controversy in many areas. Some of the venues are not ready yet, for example, the hockey stadium in Milan and other things. But what I always find exciting, and I mean, coming from the sort of north part of the world, you know, Winter Olympics is almost as big as the Summer Olympics for us. And I always look out for the new sports that are coming.
Emma Nelson
Okay.
Inga Thoradar
And this year, everyone should be looking out for ski Mo. That is the new sport. It's, I mean, interesting that it's a new sport in the Olympics because this is probably how skiing started. You run up the mountain.
Emma Nelson
You run up the mountain.
Inga Thoradar
Yeah. So it'll be exciting to see how that new sport fares in this Olympics.
Emma Nelson
Excellent. Because everybody can run up an icy, snowy mountain easily. Thank you so much. Inga Thorder, chief catalyst officer at Kanaloa and former senior editor at the BBC and at cnn. Thank you so much. You're listening to the Globalist. Now here's a look at some of the stories we're keeping an eye on today. In successive phone calls, the Chinese president Xi Jinping has spoken to Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin about the war in Ukraine, about Taiwan and Iran. Mr. Xi warned the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan with caution, but also offered to increase imports of US soybeans. Mr. Trump said the talks are very Positive. Asian stock markets have slumped tracking losses on Wall street, with tech firms under particular pressure. The sell off is being driven by concerns about the cost of investment in artificial intelligence. And Colombia's largest drug cartel says it's suspending peace negotiations with President Gustavo Petro's government after he agreed with Donald Trump to attack its leader. The two men met on Tuesday at the White House where they discussed cooperation against drug trafficking. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. Now Japan goes to the polls this weekend with an election campaign launched and conducted at breakneck speed by the country's prime minister. Buoyed by very positive approval ratings, Sanae Takaichi is hoping for a landslide victory barely four months into her tenure. So what can we expect? Well, I'm joined now by Stephen Nudge, who's professor at the Department of Politics and International Studies at the International Christian University in Japan. Are we expecting this landslide to happen?
Stephen Nudge
I do expect a landslide victory for Takichi and the ldp. We're likely to see the LDP exceed and achieve a majority, which means it doesn't need a coalition partner. And what that means, that means consistent policy. It means they don't have to wrangle with the opposition parties for favors. It means that there's a little bit more direction on domestic and foreign policy for Japan.
Emma Nelson
Okay, so that direction on both domestic and foreign policy out outline what you believe that you know, how Japan will be, will be in six months to a year's time if Takaichi gets, gets what she wants.
Stephen Nudge
Well, let's be frank. You know, Japan's been dealing with inflation, low wages and a relatively stagnant economy for three decades. So if it was easy, the previous prime ministers would have solved Japan's problems. But what she's aiming to do with a majority in the Diet and strong leadership or a mandate from the Japanese public is to try and deal with inflation, try to deal with, with wage flat wages and try to get the Japanese economy going. And this is tough. She does have some levers that she can use. But again, it's going to take some coordinated policies and some restructuring of the economy, likely in the area of tax reductions, likely in the area of some subsidies for families and for those businesses that are hiring. But it's going to be a combination of factors to push the Japanese economy in a direction that is relatively flat, I think from the macro level. But it feels much better inside Japan where they're actually the policies are affecting ordinary citizens.
Emma Nelson
Things like tax changes, things like alterations to benefits. Is this something that Japan needs anywhere as a sort of modernization or rebalancing, or is this going to fundamentally change the way that the society and the economy works there?
Stephen Nudge
Japan is a very incremental society and it doesn't really change on the dime very quickly. But again, over time, what we're going to see is probably more taxes are a greater burden put on pensioners and people in terms of the elderly that are get really large and very generous social welfare programs. So I think that these are going to be first on the chopping block, not to the degree that we'd see in the UK or Canada where, but I think that these are going to be some efforts by the Japanese government to bring some changes to some very, very expensive social welfare programs. At the same time, they're going to try to direct that money to young families that want to have children, that want to, you know, find a place in Tokyo. So I think the money is going to move around to try and prop up the very expensive, you know, cost for raising family in Japan. And this is a dire state on other areas, whether it's taxes on fuel, taxes on fuel and consumption taxes. I think there's some room to move. But again, Japan has a lot of domestic debt to pay for. They have many social welfare programs that they have to manage. And it's not going to be an easy balancing act for Takechi, no matter if she's in a majority or a super majority.
Emma Nelson
One balancing act she has got to pull off is a connection with younger voters. And you mentioned that currently pensioners get a very, very generous sort of treatment when they retire. But for younger people in Japan, this is a much, much tougher ask, isn't it?
Stephen Nudge
I won't say the person that said this, but a prominent LDP politician once told me that, you know, Japan's future is being stolen by the elderly. And what he was referring to is again, this money transferred to pensions, money transferred to very, very generous health, health care for the elderly. Two people that generally already have quite a bit of wealth associated with the bubble era and the property boom that happened in the 80s in Japan. So there is recognition that this is a problem. There's a recognition that needs to be restructuring in the finances to again make Japan conducive to families and having children and investing and being a couple. And where we are today is those incentives aren't there. And without big changes, I think Japan's going to be faced with a huge challenge moving forward to be sustainable and competitive in the region.
Emma Nelson
Stephen Nudge in Tokyo, thank you so much. For joining us on Monaco Radio. Eight thirty nine in Rome, seven thirty nine here in London. Now, while the European Union is mounting a united front when it comes to external challenges within the bloc itself, the factions and alliances and the divisions remain, populism is nonetheless still on the rise. And yesterday the Czech Prime Minister was in Rome where he met his Italian counterpart, Giorgio Malone. Following the events was Rob Cameron, the BBC Prague correspondent who's also joining us on the line. Very good morning to you, Rob.
Rob Cameron
Good morning, Emma. How are you?
Emma Nelson
Very well, thank you. What happened?
Rob Cameron
Well, this was one of Andrej Babis first foreign trips since forming his latest government just before Christmas. I mean, he's been to neighboring Slovakia, which is a long kind of tradition for new Czech leaders. And he was also of course, at the summit in Brussels. But the fact that he went to Rome to meet Giorgio Meloni I think is quite significant because it's one of his first foreign policy forays, one of his first foreign policy trips. And I think that he really wanted to stress by doing that that he wants to be at the sort of pointy end of EU politics and EU policymaking. And so that choice of Rome to meet this fellow populist leader in Giorgia Meloni I think was quite deliber.
Emma Nelson
What does he intend to achieve by this? Clearly by, you know, going to the European Union's third biggest economy but going to the most high profile populist leader that the EU has. Where does Babish see himself at the table?
Rob Cameron
Well, I think that he sees himself, or rather he wants to be seen, and he wants the Czech Republic to be seen as one of the more kind of, you know, assertive and agenda setting governments in the EU and not the kind of passive middle. We do know obviously that he was the co founder of the sovereign conservative nationalist Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament. He founded that group along with Viktor Orban and also the Austrian Chancellor, so very much of a slightly different political grouping to Giorgio Meloni who's in the CR group. But both are sovereigntists, both are conservatives, both are nationalists, both are populists. Both believe that EU governments themselves, EU states should maintain a great deal of decision making when it comes to EU policy. And they are obviously against the movement towards a more unified and perhaps federalist stream within the European Union. So I think that's why this meeting was held and why it's significant.
Emma Nelson
Indeed. And one of the subjects that was brought up was European competitiveness. There's an EU summit next week. This idea of EU competitiveness as a united front, when what you have just said looks as if you have the age old push and pull between federal and subsidiarity, that the idea that each country looks after itself within a wider block. How does someone like, how does a country like the Czech Republic suddenly add to this debate, despite including the fact that you mentioned that there's ambition?
Rob Cameron
I think it's all about. When Andre Babi speaks about competitiveness, he speaks in quite concrete terms and he often uses the example of the EU's climate policy and carbon emissions and so on as really being hamstrung. And there's no way, he says that the EU can compete with the big economic blocs of the world when it is deliberately restraining itself own economy. So that's certainly a major thing for him. Climate policy and not only defence and so on, but climate policy and also migration. He sees those two things as central to the EU being a competitive economic force. And I think that's why he was keen to stress just how he and the Italian leader saw eye to eye on that and how he saw her as very pragmatic. He said Meloni was very pragmatic. So we understood each other well. And I think that's Andre Babys in a nutshell. He wants pragmatic solutions to the EU's problems going forward.
Emma Nelson
How does this play back in the Czech Republic? Because we have already, we have the more left wing President Pavel, but we're also seeing reports that the Czech government is already facing a parliamentary no confidence vote over a row with the President. There's trouble back at home. So how does Babish's trip to Rome play with that?
Rob Cameron
There is definitely very much trouble back at home. The President seems to have won this round in this dispute over one of Mr. Babas coalition partners insistence on appointing as a minister a man with a very controversial past involving homophobic and racist and sexist remarks, Hitler salutes, tax problems, legal problems. So that struggle between the government and the president, President Pavel, as you mentioned, President Pavel appears to have come out on top on that. He says he's never going to appoint this guy as a minister. And Prime Minister Babish before he went to Italy said, yeah, he isn't going to appoint him, so we're just going to drop the matter. So that seat at the cabinet table will remain empty. But I think in terms of the visit to Italy and his meeting with Giorgio Melania Maloney, it didn't really play very, you know, largely back home in the media and so on, simply because the country's just been so obsessed by this spat between the President and between one of the ministers in the government, with Mr. Babbish trying not to allow it to completely derail his new government that, you know, a foreign trip to see an EU leader really doesn't make the headlines much in Prague at the moment.
Emma Nelson
Rob Cameron in Prague, thank you so much for joining us on Monocle Radio.
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Emma Nelson
Aviation news now. And who better to fill us in? Monocles Transport correspondent Gabriel Lee. Good morning, Gabe, how are you?
Kleber Mendonza Figlio
Good morning.
Gabriel Lee
Doing fine. How are you?
Emma Nelson
Good to have you with us. Thank you. Right, let's talk about Air India. It has its first new 787 from Boeing and it has a beautiful fit out.
Gabriel Lee
Yes. So Air India operates a number of 787s. They're famously mostly flying out, but with very outdated interiors, really nothing cutting edge and nothing very nice. So they received their first new 787nine from Boeing and they've done it up just as they want it, as they want to make the new Air India look. And they're going to be rolling this out across the whole 787 fleet and eventually they'll have this kind of look and feel across the entire air airline. It's a long process, but it's a really big moment for them and trying to sort of change perceptions of the airline. And they recently started flying it after they debuted at an air show in Hyderabad, which I was actually present for. They they started flying it on Frankfurt to Mumbai route. So. So a nice bit of progress for Air India.
Emma Nelson
And will this upgrade help and will it work?
Gabriel Lee
I think it will work. When people see this and they realize, you know, there are a lot of people who still think of Air India as just a basket case of in airline, you know, terrible interiors, terrible customer service, everything. And since Tata Group has taken it over, it has been changing. Of course, you know, it's mixed right now. You could get either one of those, the new much better experience or the older one. They're working really hard to modernize and fix and upgrade everything. I think as people, you know, there'll be a lag in terms of the reputation. But as more and more people fly on these aircraft, they'll see that. Oh, this is really something different. This is not the Air India I thought of before.
Emma Nelson
Talking about lag. Lufthansa is struggling a little bit in terms of the way that it is, is unable to sell seats in business class. There are delays when it comes to the installation of its new business class. Tell us a little bit more about what it is doing to try to fix this problem.
Gabriel Lee
Yeah, so it's interesting because right now they're celebrating their 100 year anniversary and they've been rolling out this really beautiful new livery on every, every aircraft type in this fleet is getting this paint scheme and it's really, it's really nice and it's sort of a great moment of PR for them as they fly these out of the paint shops. Recent one just left a few days ago. At the same time they're continuing to struggle with this new business class that they, that they announced many years ago. And especially on the 787 fleet actually on their end they can't get it certified to the point where they can't sell most of their business class seats on their new 787s. So very frustrating and of course not very environmentally friendly either to fly with these massively empty cabins. And so it's just kind of an ongoing issue where they have this very inconsistent fleet. They're actually installing a different venture business class, new business class on their A380 fleet. But at least it's sort of, you know, you can sell the seats. So still kind of a, a big mess there that they're trying to work out and kind of no end in sight that they're working towards it. But the 787 question is, is very tricky for them. So very frustrating times.
Emma Nelson
How much of a long term threat is this when, when you get so much competition within the European market and indeed the international, the, the global market as well. One wonders where Lufthansa's sits.
Gabriel Lee
Yeah, I mean the, the group overall is, which is comprised of a number of airlines around Europe and, and other companies as well is doing well. It's profitable that you know, right now demand is high, but also oil prices are low and, and dollar is weak. Things like that are working in their favor. I think Lufthansa, the airline itself has definitely struggled with turning a profit and, and, and sort of also sort of fighting this battle for rep. Their reputation, you know that other airlines in the group actually are, are proceeding with advanced cabins that are much nicer and more consistent. And Lufthansa as the leading airline is Sort of lagging behind in that sense. So they do need to figure something out. They do need to fix this before long because this has also been going on for years.
Emma Nelson
Let's talk about what's happening with Venezuela. As the regime is changed, as the United States has a direct involvement in it. The airspace is opening up.
Gabriel Lee
Yes. So flights between the US And Venezuela have not existed for some years.
Inga Thoradar
Years.
Gabriel Lee
That was, of course, before a big market. American Airlines was, was a big one serving, you know, Miami, New York, even Puerto Rico to Caracas back in the day. For a long time now, American carriers have not been able to fly to Venezuela and, and also vice versa. The Venezuelan carriers have been shut out of the US And I think on both sides there's a real desire to get back in there. And now airlines are seeing a possibility. We saw American Airlines announced that they will be the first one to return to Caracas, which is not surprising. They have a very strong presence in Latin America, but we don't have a set date yet. You know, they talk about doing some security reviews and figuring out what, what the situation really is before doing it, but I know they want to do it quickly. And then there's the Venezuelan airline Aviar, which I also spent some time with a couple of years ago, who, you know, even at that time, they were, they were, they had a whole room that was dedicated to planning their return to the US that's the most important thing for them. And they were mostly having to fly around Latin America and die domestically, but they were doing everything they could to regain entry to the US and now they are also seeing a chance. They've reapplied now. They've said to the Department of Transportation, you know, please let us in, we want to come back as soon as possible.
Emma Nelson
Monocle's transport correspondent, Gabriel Lee. Thank you so much for joining us on the line. You're listening to the Globalist. Now the Secret Agent is not only an award season darling, but also a box office hit. The Brazilian political crime thriller is a visual feast set in the the late 1970s when the country was still under a dictatorship. Nominated for four Oscars, including Best Picture, it's the film to watch this season. And Monocle Radio senior correspondent Fernanda Augusta Pacheco has met both the film's director, Kleber Mendoncefilio, and its leading actor, Wagner Mora.
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobukidze
Uraku Namoka.
Kleber Mendonza Figlio
Kleber Wagner Mora. What a pleasure to speak to both of you. Kleber, I'll start with you because I know the Secret Agent is a Very special project for you because it's been quite a. A longtime desire that you wanted to do this film, right? It took some time. So tell us about that process a little bit. It began with the desire to develop a thriller set in the 1970s, shot in widescreen Panavision. That was the desire also to do it with Wagner as the main actor. That's the first thing. Then I found myself going through a lot of materials and archives for my last film, my previous film, Pictures of Ghosts. And I spent seven years trying to make that film work. It finally did in 2023. But I had been looking at old newspapers, photographs, films, you know, visiting cinema techs. And that gave me reconnected myself to memories, childhood memories. And suddenly I felt that I had the emotional structure to write the Secret Agent. But something that was unplanned. It just happened that I felt it was the right time because of all the work I had given to Pictures of Ghosts. And then the last thing that happened, because that's how these things come together. We were going through the Bolsonaro years and the Bolsonaro years. They were a bizarre mixture of 21st century, far right with this fetishistic desire to bring back the good old days of the military dictatorship. And in many ways I was writing about the 70s, but living the complete madness of going through those years in the 21st century, in modern times. So I think a lot of the energy from the film came from that crazy and just dreadful moment in Brazilian. Contemporary Brazilian history. History. Oh, very dreadful indeed. And, and Wagner. How does. Does it feel finally working with Clever. It's been a while. And return to acting Portuguese as. As well, after a few, you know, can you imagine? It was like the. I had the best time of my life. It was really amazing. I, I, till today I was like it tons on me that I hadn't worked in Portuguese for 12 years. But, you know, it was, you know, I was directing Marine and I did the Narcos and, and that took me a long time. And then there was the Bolsonaro years, where there was no movies, no audiovisual in Brazil at all. But, you know, I kind of. Things happen when they have to happen. And I was, I've been trying to work with Clever for a while, since I met him, basically. And I. And I think that was the perfect project for us. It's very political, we both political persons. And it's like as cinematic as it can get and as Brazilian as it can get and as northeastern as it can get. So we're Both from the Northeast and from Salvador. He's from his Seife. We shared lots of cultural codes and it was amazing. It was amazing. It was very liberating to be doing something in my own language, for I can't even tell you how amazing it was. And to be doing that with Kleber and in his Seifi. It was really special and clever. Is interesting because you can be political in many ways, doing a film as well, because for me, of course, very political setting, the dictatorship. But it feels at times, it's also a love letter to cinema, especially 70s cinema. I love the references to Jaws as well, which is one of my favorite films as well. So you wanted to combine. I think you can make a film about the dictatorship in many ways as well, right? Well, yeah, Particularly if you invests quite a lot of energy in the idea of rebuilding a sense of time. I think rebuilding a sense of time is as important as focusing on, for example, a true story. I mean, this film is not based on a true story. It's all fiction. But the sense of time is quite truthful, I would say, and very honest, because it comes from not only my own childhood memory memories, but from many stories that I borrowed, from many memories that I borrowed and that are now my memories, but they were actually told to me by family members, my uncles, my parents. I think that sense of truth is in the film and I think it's also in the actors. When you work with a cast like this, they are incredibly truthful people, even as citizens, not only as actors of stories, great actors, but I think it's very much about some truth, social truth, human truth. And that has to be present in the image. It has to be very much what the film is. And I'm happy with that sense of truth, which is you could pick it up even if you're not Brazilian. We've had great reactions all over the world to the film about some sense of truth, which. Which I find really fascinating to know that it's something that can be picked up by anyone.
Emma Nelson
And that was Clabo Mendonta Figlio and Wagner Mora talking to Fernando Augusta Proscecco and about the Secret Agent. And it's out now in the United States, Brazil and Europe and will be released in the UK on 20 February. And that's all the time we have for today's programme. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers, Carlos Rebella, Angelica Jopson and Ryuma Takahashi. Our researcher is Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager is Elliot Greenfield, with editing assistance by Christy o'. Grady. After the headlines. There's more music on the way. The briefings live at midday here in London. The Globalist is back at the same time tomorrow. Hope you can join me for that if you're can. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thank you for listening.
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Host: Emma Nelson
Date: 5 February 2026
This episode examines the global implications of the expiration of New START, the last major nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia, and what its expiry signals for global security. Insights are drawn from Monocle’s security correspondent Guarana Gurcic and Georgia Cole of Chatham House. The episode also explores related current affairs, such as shifting nuclear policies, international diplomacy, the rise of populism in Europe, and developments in Asia and international aviation.
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“...we are much more ahead. So we are much more successful with regard to, again, Democracy, human rights, rule of law, but also low level corruption. The liberal economic policies, successful economic policies.” – Prime Minister Kobukidze (19:44)
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For listeners: this episode provides a comprehensive and sobering assessment of global nuclear security post-New START, highlighting paths forward, new risks, and the growing complexity of global security, alongside rich coverage of current affairs, diplomacy, and culture.