The Globalist – “Last remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires: What next?”

Host: Emma Nelson
Date: 5 February 2026

Episode Overview

This episode examines the global implications of the expiration of New START, the last major nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia, and what its expiry signals for global security. Insights are drawn from Monocle’s security correspondent Guarana Gurcic and Georgia Cole of Chatham House. The episode also explores related current affairs, such as shifting nuclear policies, international diplomacy, the rise of populism in Europe, and developments in Asia and international aviation.

The End of New START: Context and Consequences

What Was the New START Treaty?

• Signed in 2010 by US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
• Sought to limit the number of strategic nuclear warheads, bombers, and missiles each country could deploy.

Importance at the Time

• Georgia Cole:
  “It signaled this sort of new commitment from the Obama administration towards a world that would be rid of nuclear weapons.” (03:49)
• The treaty followed a period of “reset” in US-Russia relations.

Why Did the Treaty Expire?

• Treaty included a single five-year extension (used by Biden and Putin in 2021).
• No provision for further extensions.
• Recent, informal efforts (like a voluntary one-year extension offered by Putin) failed to materialize into formal agreements.
• Lack of Diplomatic Capacity:
  “After the Trump administration's mass layoffs of the civil service, there simply isn't the technical or diplomatic expertise left to be able to engage in nuclear arms control discussions with Russia.” (06:40, Georgia Cole)

Key Discussion Points

1. Immediate Impact: No Nuclear Guardrails

• Guarana Gurcic:
  “Two largest nuclear arsenals on earth are completely unrestrained by any arms control treaty. So we are left without guard.” (05:35)
• Emma Nelson:
  “We don’t have guardrails. Thank you for that, Guarana.” (05:35)

Potential for Arms Race

• Fears of renewed arms race and modernization of arsenals, especially as previous treaties (e.g., INF, Open Skies) have already been abandoned.

2. The Bigger Picture: China & Global Multipolarity

• Georgia Cole:
  “This arms race these days is not just a US-Russia race, but it's a three-way dynamic that involves China... China's arsenal is growing... and it's predicted to basically reach those sort of levels in about 10 years or so.” (07:13)

Three-Way Problem

• Future arms control must include Beijing due to rapid growth in the Chinese nuclear arsenal.
• Proliferation risks extend beyond great powers, possibly incentivizing other countries to go nuclear.

3. International Trust & Proliferation Incentives

• Emma Nelson:
  “This idea... signifies this general absence of international trust, doesn't it? … anyone now can have a go?” (09:39)
• Georgia Cole:
  “We are living in dangerous times... it does point towards potentially more states with nuclear capability, which is a concerning thing.” (11:45)

Friendly Proliferation

• Georgia Cole:
  “There’s also been concerns about what we call friendly proliferation... Western countries and Western allies wanting to develop their own indigenous nuclear programs... Japan, South Korea, Germany, and Poland.” (10:32)

4. Leadership Vacuum

• No expertise in US government for future negotiations.
• No immediate prospects for new deals.
• The risk that this “prolonged period without any nuclear arms control” becomes the new status quo.
• Georgia Cole:
  “...if things continue under the leadership of the present people who occupy offices in Washington, Moscow and Beijing, or their kind of fellow travelers, then it doesn’t bode well for the world security for sure.” (11:45)

5. Notable Quotes

• Georgia Cole on arms race:
  “We are left without guardrails.” (05:35)
• On multi-polar risks:
  “Future arms control discussions must include Beijing... China's arsenal is predicted to reach parity in about a decade.” (07:13)
• On proliferation incentives:
  “This could potentially lead to incentives for proliferation. Obviously, Iran is the big concern right now, but... calls [for nuclear arms] in Japan and South Korea and Germany and Poland... If trends continue... we could certainly see further proliferation.” (10:32)

Other Major Segments

Georgia’s Foreign Policy & EU Aspirations

(16:26)

• Interview with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobukidze at the World Government Summit.
• Recaps Georgia’s nuanced stance on the Ukraine war:
  “From the very beginning we supported all relevant decisions... supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and also condemning Russia’s military aggression... 20% of our territories is occupied by Russia.” (17:11)
• EU accession: Georgia feels unfairly blocked by EU bureaucracy despite reforms; expresses frustration with “very limited communication” from the EU. (19:44)

“...we are much more ahead. So we are much more successful with regard to, again, Democracy, human rights, rule of law, but also low level corruption. The liberal economic policies, successful economic policies.” – Prime Minister Kobukidze (19:44)

• Responds to Western criticism over election transparency:
  “There was even no technical possibility to manipulate anything in this election... Let’s have an open conversation, transparent conversation about how the elections have been held in Georgia.” (22:39)

European Populism and The Czech PM’s Trip to Rome

(40:40)

• New Czech PM Andrej Babis meets Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
• A demonstration of a shared agenda among populist, sovereigntist, and nationalist leaders.
• Rob Cameron (BBC Prague):
  “Both are sovereigntists, both are conservatives, both are nationalists, both are populists. Both believe that EU governments themselves, EU states should maintain a great deal of decision making when it comes to EU policy.” (41:45)

Japan Election Preview

(35:44)

• Landslide win expected for PM Sanae Takaichi’s LDP.
• Key focus: economic stagnation, tax changes, welfare reform.
• Challenges: balancing burdens between pensioners and youth, sustaining economic reforms in an aging society.
• Stephen Nudge (ICU Tokyo):
  “Japan’s future is being stolen by the elderly... incentives [for young families] aren’t there... Without big changes... Japan’s going to be faced with a huge challenge moving forward.” (39:06)

Aviation News Briefs

(47:08)

• Air India’s image overhaul with a new 787 fit-out.
• Lufthansa’s new business class rollout faces certification woes, impacting perceived quality and sales.
• Potential reopening of US-Venezuela air travel markets as diplomatic relations thaw.

Cultural Highlight: “The Secret Agent” Film

(52:52)

• Oscar-nominated Brazilian crime thriller set during the 1970s dictatorship.
• Director Kleber Mendonza Figlio and actor Wagner Moura reflect on politics, memory, and Brazilian cinema.
• Kleber Mendonza Figlio:
  “I think it's very much about some truth, social truth, human truth. And that has to be present in the image. It has to be very much what the film is. And I'm happy with that sense of truth, which is you could pick it up even if you're not Brazilian.” (02:05, replayed at 57:57)

Key Timestamps

• 03:49 — Georgia Cole on the historic significance of New START
• 05:35 — Guarana Gurcic: “We are left without guardrails.”
• 06:40 — Cole: US civil service depletion imperils arms diplomacy
• 07:13 — Cole: China’s rising nuclear role requires new trilateral approach
• 10:32 — Potential for “friendly proliferation” amongst Western states
• 11:45 — Cole: Difficult path back to stability; dangerous horizon
• 16:26-24:11 — Interview with Georgian Prime Minister Kobukidze
• 35:44-40:00 — Japan’s election outlook, generational policies
• 40:40-46:22 — Czech PM Babis’s meeting with Giorgia Meloni
• 52:52-58:47 — Kleber Mendonza Figlio and Wagner Moura: “The Secret Agent”

Memorable Moments & Tone

• The tone is measured, insightful, and occasionally urgent—reflecting global uncertainty and multiple crosscurrents in security, politics, and economics.
• Georgia Cole’s summation:
  “We are living in dangerous times... if things continue under the leadership of the present people... then it doesn’t bode well for the world security for sure.” (11:45)
• The cultural segment ends on a note of optimism about art’s universality and power to communicate truth, “even if you’re not Brazilian.”

For listeners: this episode provides a comprehensive and sobering assessment of global nuclear security post-New START, highlighting paths forward, new risks, and the growing complexity of global security, alongside rich coverage of current affairs, diplomacy, and culture.