The Globalist — December 10, 2025

Lithuania Sounds the Alarm Over Belarusian Balloons: Is Europe Still Too Soft on Provocation?

Monocle Radio – Host: Emma Nelson

Episode Overview

This episode explores Lithuania's declaration of a state of emergency in response to persistent airspace violations by Belarusian balloons, allegedly smuggling contraband and serving as "hybrid warfare." Discussions focus on the security implications for Lithuania—and Europe at large—provoking questions about European deterrence, hybrid threats, and the roles of the EU and NATO. The episode also covers related European current affairs and features segments on French politics, Czech leadership, urbanism trends, and developments in Asia-Pacific security.

Lithuania Under Balloon Siege: Hybrid Threats and European Response

Key Guests:

• Andrew Muller (Monocle presenter, contributing editor)
• Hannah Lyubakova (Belarusian journalist, non-resident senior fellow, Atlantic Council's Eurasia Centre)

Timeline & Key Points

What’s Happening In Lithuania? (02:04–03:30)

• Air balloons carrying contraband (notably smuggled cigarettes) have been drifting into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus for weeks. Initial response measures included closing Vilnius airspace.
• Problem escalated—now officially a state of emergency.

Nature of the Threat & Motivation (03:30–05:35)

• Andrew Muller:
  “Hybrid warfare, if that's what this is, is extremely low cost to the perpetrator and it can have quite devastating consequences...” (03:33)

  • Criminal activity or state action—or both? Belarusian regime likely benefits regardless.
  • Disruption: Vilnius Airport closed for 60 hours in October, affecting 30,000 passengers.
  • Domino effect: Airlines like Finnair stopped services, tourists reconsider visiting Vilnius.

• Hannah Lyubakova:
  “Lukashenko is definitely, as we usually joke... opening champagne in Minsk.” (04:45)

  • Contraband smuggling by regime’s security apparatus is longstanding, now with “new tactics” involving mass balloon launches.
  • Large-scale operations of this nature in Belarus cannot be independent of government awareness.

Can Lithuania Respond Effectively? (05:35–06:47)

• Lithuania largely limited to symbolic actions like declaring a state of emergency.
• Shooting down balloons or drones over populated areas brings risks.
• Andrew Muller:
  “Sanctions... often a thing you announce when you can't think of anything else.” (05:49)

Is Moscow Behind the Balloons? (06:47–08:13)

• Hannah Lyubakova:
  “Escalations or hybrid threats... coming from Belarus and coming from Moscow are being coordinated.” (06:55)
  • Past coordination in fostering EU border crises (e.g., migration).
  • Recent incidents include large numbers of drones and balloons entering Lithuania and Poland.

Lithuania: EU, NATO, and the Limits of Deterrence (08:13–11:18)

• Lithuania appeals to the EU and NATO but options are limited.
• US deterrence less reliable for European countries than in the past.
• Andrew Muller:
  “If you are in charge of Belarus or Russia right now, why would you not [escalate]?” (08:26)
• Hannah Lyubakova:
  “This is not just an isolated prank. This is part of a years-long pattern of small, deniable provocations.” (09:44)
  • Sanctions, border closures, and appeals to international partners are main responses.
  • Military action (e.g., jets) is costly and risky; overreaction possible.

Local Impact: Economic and Psychological Effects (11:18–12:13)

• Hannah Lyubakova:
  “I think there is also the psychological aspect to that... this is a reminder that we are close to Russia, we are close to Belarus, we are close to the front line, essentially.” (11:30)
  • Balloon incursions disrupt business, deter tourism, and erode the city’s reputation.
  • Ordinary life and economic confidence shaken (flight delays, airport closures).

Notable Quotes

• Andrew Muller on hybrid threats:
  “It is all extremely difficult, especially when Belarus or whoever is ultimately responsible... will just say, well, it's absolutely nothing to do with us.” (05:49)

• Hannah Lyubakova on regime coordination:
  “I think this is purely the two countries, the two regimes working together on something.” (07:46)

• Emma Nelson raising the stakes:
  “Belarus is sending these balloons over into a NATO country and nothing is being done.” (09:21)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Lithuania–Belarus balloon crisis: 02:04–12:13
• Czech politics (Babis returns): 12:13–19:34
• French headlines & Social Security vote, Renault-Ford alliance, Louvre woes: 20:40–30:48
• China, North Korea, and regional security shift: 32:29–45:30
• Urbanism: Canadian bike lanes, NYC office-housing conversions: 46:18–52:27
• Canary Wharf’s comeback: 52:37–57:24

European & International News Highlights

Czech Republic: Babis’ Political Return (12:13–19:34)

• Rob Cameron (from Prague):
  • Andrei Babis, former PM, returns to power after purportedly resolving his business conflict of interest.
  • “This is really his lifelong ambition to hold this most important of jobs. Twice... and he’s done it.” (12:53)
  • Ongoing political tension with the President; potential implications for the composition of the far-right block in Central Europe.

French Headlines (20:40–30:48)

• Michele Barbaro (AFP):
  • Social Security bill passes—tenuous government survival.
  • Renault-Ford electric car alliance responds to Chinese competition.
  • Louvre struck by scandals, security lapses, and labor strife.
  • Nicolas Sarkozy’s “prison memoirs” mocked for tone vs. reality.

Asia-Pacific: Australia’s Teen Social Media Ban & Northeast Asia Security (32:27–45:30)

• Katie Silver (on Australia):
  • New law bans under-16s from social media amid global scrutiny; government touts health benefits despite “sense of grief” among teens.
• Robert E. Kelly (Busan Univ.):
  • China drops “denuclearization” language in North Korea policy for first time in decades.
  • “The Chinese have given up on that, which kind of suggests that they’re really not going to make much of even the minor effort they’ve made in the past.” (37:11)
  • Raises prospects of further North Korean nuclear advances and regional arms race.

Urban Affairs: Cities Reinventing Themselves

Canadian Cycling Study & Active Transit Push (46:18–49:48)

• Research from British Columbia reveals bike commuters favor routes close to home with multiple amenities, aiding city planners in creating safer, more popular infrastructure even in harsh weather.

NYC Office Conversions (49:48–52:27)

• New York accelerates office-to-residential conversions amidst post-pandemic vacancy—12,000 new units expected, with 3,000 affordable housing.

Canary Wharf’s Reinvention (52:37–57:24)

• Carlotta Rubella (Monocle):
  • Post-pandemic, Canary Wharf pivots to become a “destination for all,” not just finance.
  • Private investment key: “£7 billion… new developments, refurbishing of offices, conversions into residential buildings...” (55:41)
  • Noteworthy: Visa relocating European HQ, surrounding amenities expanded, HSBC returning after wavering on exit.
  • Main challenge: balancing redevelopment with keeping current tenants and vibrancy.

Summary Takeaways

• The balloon crisis is emblematic of how “hybrid warfare”—cheap, plausible deniability actions—can test European resilience and reveal the limitations of current security arrangements.
• Lithuania’s predicament underscores broader European anxieties: Is the EU or NATO ready to counter persistent, ambiguous provocations? Reliance on US backing is less certain than before.
• Across the continent, political and economic adjustments are ongoing—political returns (Babis in Czechia), economic alliances (Renault-Ford), cultural tremors (Louvre scandals), and urban transformations (NYC, London).
• Internationally, Asia’s security environment is shifting as China signals acquiescence to North Korea’s nuclear status, raising stakes for South Korea and Japan.

Memorable Quote of the Episode

“This is not just an isolated prank. This is part of a years-long pattern of small, deniable provocations.”
— Hannah Lyubakova (09:44)

For Listeners Who Missed the Broadcast

If you want to understand how low-level, ambiguous threats can unravel border security and European unity—and why decisive answers remain elusive—this episode details the latest on eastern provocations and the West’s struggle to adapt, with insights bridging the local, continental, and global.