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Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 25 February 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
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Hello,
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this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz is in China at the head of a big business delegation. Can he chart a new relationship with Beijing? Is the horn of Africa on the brink of war again? And is there a way to de escalate the crisis then?
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There is no challenge Americans cannot overcome, no frontier too vast for us to conquer, no dream too bold for us to chase, no horizon too distant for us to claim.
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How is the global press reacting to Trump's State of the Union address? We'll flip through the papers to find out. Then a roundup of news from the Vatican as Juliet Lindley unpacks Rome. Republicans rel and a refurb. Canada says it will help Cuba defy the US Oil blockades on the island. But is this out of humanitarian concern or political provocation?
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Plus, wars are hard to start but even harder to end. It's either breaking the will or running out of resources.
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Ukraine's former foreign minister speaks to Monocle on the fourth anniversary of the conflict. And as Etihad posts record profits, we'll look at how and why this carrier has become so successful and why we all love using it. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Iran is close to a deal with China to buy advanced anti ship missiles as the United States assembles major naval forces near the Iranian coast. Donald Trump delivered the longest State of the Union speech on record, pitching his economic agenda as Democrats staged nationwide counter events. And Australian leader Anthony Albanese was evacuated from his official residence in Canberra today after an alleged bomb threat which police later said posed no ongoing risk. Do stay tuned to Monaco Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now Chancellor Friedrich Merz is making his inaugural visit to China, Germany's biggest trading partner. At a time when it's acknowledged that Germany's economic relationship with Beijing has changed. Well, I'm joined now in the studio by David Slettinger, who is an independent advisor and commentator on media journalism and China. And from the Bavarian capital by Florian Egli, professor of Public policy at the Technical University of Munich. Good morning to you both and thanks so much for joining me. Now Politico says that China once underpinned Germany's industrial growth but has now become a force behind its de industrialization. Florian, tell us more.
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Good morning, Georgina. Yes, so, I mean, I think this statement, you know, is a bit overblown in both directions, but there is certainly some truth to it. So what people refer to is the second China shock. The first China shock took place after 2001 when China joined the WTO, the World Trade Organization, and basically Chinese goods entered world markets with the consequences, we know, a lot of very cheap consumer goods from China that partly threatened Western industry, but also made our lives very comfortable. Now we refer to the second China Shock because China has implemented, I would say, very smart industrial policies and has managed to upgrade through the value chain. So now Chinese products are actually high value products and they are competing with German exporters. So we do see that now the car market has flipped. So China exports more cars than Germany does, particularly also domestic demand in China favors Chinese cars over German cars. And, but not only cars, it's also the chemicals industry. So we see the German chemicals industry struggling with competition from China. Pharmaceuticals is probably next. And China is making strategic, you know, entry into other technologies, such as, for instance, heat pumps, where Germany has a global lead but is also feeling the pressure. So I wouldn't say it's driving the deindustrialization of Germany, but certainly China has arrived at a stage where it competes in terms of quality and in terms of manufacturing capabilities with the kind of products that the German export industry is built on and is relying on.
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And David, so China has taken over from the US as Germany's number one trading partner. And I wonder if, from a Chinese perspective, if this visit Mertz visit presents a strategic opening for Xi Jinping. I wonder if Germany and Europe, if she thinks Germany and Europe can be moved out of Trump's orbit and what would that look like for Beijing?
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Well, I think from China's point of view, what's crucial is to keep the European door open. So if you just look at from the end of 2025, Macron visited, then Starmer visited, and now Merz is visiting. So when you have France, the UK and Germany, those are the three big industrial powers of Europe, forget the little issue of Brexit and the eu. But you do have this is Europe. So if you can make sure that you have free, unfettered trade to the extent possible with Europe, then that is a big victory for Xi, setting aside any US Rivalry. But then there is, of course, the issue of the US and when you have President Trump basically blowing up traditional alliances, that is an opportunity for Xi to get some of his diplomatic issues on the table at least, number one being, of course, the issue of Taiwan, making sure that Europe doesn't have a very strong Taiwan policy that would offend China. So I think there are certainly diplomatic things that Xi wants, but number one is trade and keeping that open, because the EU certainly has made a lot of noise about looking at artificial intelligence, looking at electric vehicles, looking at some of the things that would be very important to China, and China wants to make sure that the policies are not too strenuous against them.
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Florian, I wonder how badly Germany needs Beijing. And David just mentioned Taiwan. Where does that clash with Germany's security needs? Taiwan, but also where Russia's concerned?
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Look, I mean, I think it might clash with a couple of Germany security needs, but the reality of this world at the moment is that where do you find a trading partner where there is no clash with your security priorities or security needs? So the US has kind of shifted on that spectrum as well. So as you've mentioned, China took over from the US as the largest trading partner, but China has been the largest trading partner every year since last year, since 2016 for Germany. And so I think this visit is really very predominantly focused on trade and on industry, actually. And that's kind of where the big, the big expectations are in. And the other topics, I would assume, are moved a little bit to the sideline. And I think in terms of security, to be realistic, one also has to say that Germany has very little leverage over China. On that topic, I do think if any European force, so to say, has leverage over China, then it would have to be united European force. So we would have to have Ursula von der Leyen traveling to Beijing with a clear mandate from EU countries, and that would, I think, enable proper security dialogue, whereas I don't see that Germany can take that lead for Europe at the moment.
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Florian, would you agree that there is a bit of a split within Germany between, say, the Foreign Ministry, which would want to be a bit more hawkish on China, and the economic ministries, which are really eager to use China to try to reignite the economy?
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Certainly. And I think the economics ministry is under a lot of Pressure, not least from Bavaria, where I'm based in. So there is this division between ministries in Germany. There is also regional division. So the class, you know, traditionally the Bundeslender in Germany, where industry is very strong, is pressuring the Economics Ministry quite hard now to deregulate, to enter trade deals and to facilitate trade and particularly to lift export restrictions on rare earths and on other minerals coming from China. So there is a lot of pressure in that direction. And at the same time, you have more spending for the armed forces, for the military, and that plus the Foreign Ministry is taking a much more hawkish stance towards China. So I totally agree with that observation. Yes.
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And David, do you then think that this visit will represent a fundamental reset of relations between the two countries and can there be a way forward that delivers for both satisfactorily?
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Well, my impression of Merits is that he's quite cautious and he does have the example of Merkel like, looming above him. And the Mercol's rapprochement with Russia proved to be disastrous in the end because Germany was so intertwined on energy needs. And I think after that example, any German leader would be very cautious about being too close to China because you don't know when things might blow up. You don't know when there might have to be another fundamental choice made. Which side are you on?
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David Schlesinger here in the studio and Florian Egli in Munich. Thank you both very much indeed. This is the Globalist. It's 11 minutes past 10 in Asmara. 7:11 here in London. There are escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia and Eritrea report troops are gathering around their shared border in the Tigray region. Could there be another war? And how is the situation in Sudan contributing to this? Well, I'm joined now by Monocle's Nairobi correspondent, Naveena Kotour. Naveena, welcome back to the program. What's happened since the last major conflict here three years ago?
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Good morning. Yes, we had this really devastating war in the Tigray region that came to an end in 2022 with the Pretoria agreement. What has happened since then is that Eritrea and Ethiopia, who, who basically forge an alliance to fight against the forces in Tigray have fallen out. Eritrea is being accused by Addis Ababa of arming rebels in Tigray, in Amhara, in Oromia, of undermining the federal government in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia, on the other hand, is also demanding sovereign sea access for the country. So Eritrea is fearing an. And in the middle of all that there is There are kind of regional tensions between the government in Tigray and the government in Addis Ababa. So from what we understand, in the last couple of days, there have been drone strikes on targets in Tigray by the federal government, and there have been skirmishes between Tigrayan forces and federal forces. And I think it is important to stress that there is a real concern that this conflict that, you know, this war that started in 2020 might break out again, but just with different alliances this time.
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And is Ethiopia's push for the Red Sea, for Red Sea access an economic imperative or is it a geopolitical provocation?
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I think it's both. I think most observers as well as, you know, diplomats would agree that in order for Ethiopia to progress economically, to do better economically, in order to be able to export, it does need sea access. It has to rely on the goodwill of ports like Djibouti in order to secure that. Or Eritrea. It tried to forge an alliance with Somaliland, but that hasn't really worked. So I think there is a real sort of push from the central government to secure the sea access, which it says it always had in the past. But there is definitely also some geopolitical jockeying happening here and an attempt to secure not just sea access for economic reasons, but also for military reasons.
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Well, let's look at the geopolitics. Tell me about external powers like Gulf states and Western capitals. Are they a deciding factor in whether this escalates or not?
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I think they are. I mean, let's remember that when this war broke out, it really was military support that came from the Gulf, Gulf, and that especially came from Turkey by sending very kind of sophisticated drone technology that helped the Ethiopian government secure a victory and basically win this war. It wasn't really able to win against the TPLF on its own. The Chinese government is heavily invested, not the Chinese government, but the Chinese companies. And the Chinese state is heavily invested in Ethiopia economically. I think it has an interest in containing this conflict so that the investments in mining, but also in other sectors like textile are not, you know, are not endangered. There was a really close relationship between the Ethiopian prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed and Western governments. Until when? From when he came into power until about 2020, 2021 when this war started, the kind of a lot of Western capitals were pushing for economic refor reforms, were supporting him. So I think at a time when there is a war raging in Sudan that has spilled over into the neighboring countries like Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, when there are questions over what is going to happen with the UN mission in Somalia. There is a real concern that another war in the region is something that will destabilize the region even further.
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And what role are the regional bodies playing, particularly when it comes to Sudan, perhaps influencing the current situation?
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Look, the, you know, the African Union is based in Addis Ababa. At the time, it didn't really throw its weight behind mediating in this conflict. It ended up being mediated in South Africa. The as, as we said before, some of the Gulf states that are the Gulf states that are supporting different groups in Sudan and in other countries are also now trying to influence the government and Addis Ababa. So I think it's a very tricky situation for a body like the African Union. And so far I haven't seen a real push to mediate. But that probably also has to do with the fact that there are other conflicts that need to be addressed.
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And so what might a credible peace process look like? And would it necessarily then involve outside leverage?
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I mean, there are observers who are arguing that it does require outside leverage to bring these three parties back from the brink. And one issue that is being discussed and is being put forward is that there needs to be a credible pathway for the Ethiopian government to the sea, that the neighboring countries should come up with kind of reliable solutions for the Ethiopian government to access a port or the sea for export and possibly for military solutions. But this is obviously something that needs to be negotiated and is a very delicate negotiation. So I think the observers who are watching this definitely do see a role for China, given the investment the Chinese government has here, but also for the regional powers to kind of come up with a solution to the sea issue that the federal government in Ethiopia has really formulated as an, as a, as a problem.
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Naveena, thank you very much indeed. That's Naveena Khutur there speaking to us from Nairobi. Now still to come on the program,
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we are preparing a plan to assist. We are not prepared at this point to provide any further details of an announcement.
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Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister says Ottawa will prepare an aid package for Cuba as it faces fuel shortages worsened by the US oil embargo. But what exactly would that look like? We'll find out. This is the globalist. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and Curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts, UBS Banking is our craft. You're back with the Globalist on Monocle Radio with me, Georgina Godwin. It's 7:19 here in London, so let's continue with today's newspapers. And joining me in the studio is Terry Stiastheny, political journalist and author of Believable the Misfits who Fought Churchill's Secret Propaganda War. Terry, I don't know if you're anything like me. I'm absolutely exhausted. Having got up at half past one in the morning to watch President Trump's State of the Union speech. I mean, it was extraordinary, wasn't it? It was just, it was sort of reminded me of some kind of medieval praise singing event. Sort of every second word they would all stand up and applaud.
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Yeah, I was just looking at some of the coverage of it and the Times picks up on exactly that. They're describing it as being a bit like an exercise class for the Republicans, saying it was a very long session, a special conditioning and endurance class because they had to kind of get up and, you know, get on their feet almost every other sentence for an hour and 48 minutes.
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The longest speech on record, apparently.
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Longest speech apparently they've kept record since 1964. But I can't imagine that anyone before that was, yeah, spoke, spoke for longer than that.
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And I mean, so the papers have been, many papers have been through this with a fine tooth comb, fact checking, because it did just seem to be a session of him just saying how well he had done. And many papers have shown that actually that just isn't true.
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Well, yes, it's really interesting watching all the sort of the live coverage. And I think that, you know, the fact checkers have certainly been earning their money overnight, UK time, some, you know, he called it himself a turnaround for the ages. And it just seems to have been, as you say, just very scattergun as we have kind of come to expect from Donald Trump. You know, talking about everything from Iran to the number of wars he claims to have resulted involved to talking about, you know, insulting the Somali community as ever, which, you know, caused people to then walk out. You know, the Democrats describing this as disconnected from reality. You know, one of the fact checking examples here, again, when he was talking about inflation, I think he was talking about the price of butter, the price of chicken and the price of the price of beef and he was saying the price was coming down significantly. But as, as the fact checkers point out, they're saying those prices are still higher. Than they were year ago. So he is just, you know, this is what Donald Trump does. You know, as we know, he. He exaggerates and he, you know, downright lies often and people trying to go through and just pick all of that out, which is obviously a lot of work.
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So what was, what were the credible takeaways from this speech?
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Well, I think, you know, one of his main points that he wanted to make was he's saying he inherited a, a terrible economy from the previous administration, but he believes it's. It's doing better than ever before. He was talking about. He was actually a bit more mu. About tariffs than you might have expected because, you know, he had the Supreme Court justices there in front of him as well, along with so many others, you know, sitting there trying to look impassive as they could, saying that that was disappointing and unfortunate rather than, you know, the rhetoric that he had immediately after the decision, talking about immigration, talking about foreign policy. And quite a lot was about, obviously, the 250th anniversary of independence. And he went into these kind of very long rhapsodic passages about, about the Wild west of the sweeping plains and the endless fields of, of Dakota. And so they're obviously building up to, to a big celebration there.
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And so what about heckling and counter protests? Because there was quite a lot of that.
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Yes, there was. I mean, certainly among the Democrats, Al Green, who has protested before, and he was particularly concerned about, you know, the, the racist imagery that Trump had been using. He walked out. He had signs and protests. Ilhan Omar, I believe, also walked out towards. After he had talked about some of the Democrats just hadn't gone there in the first place. So, you know, they were obviously very keen to protest against the speech and obviously, you know, to keep their seats if they weren't walking out and not sort of leap to their feet as the Republican opponents were doing.
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Iran, how largely did that figure?
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Well, there was, you know, quite a talk about Iran, but again, you know, not quite as, not as much detail as you would expect. Talking really about, you know, he talked also about Venezuela. He was warning Iran against developing nuclear weapons, saying that he wants to solve this through diplomacy, but that he might not do that. So, you know, that was certainly one of the issues, though I think, again, not quite as much, not as much detail as people might have expected on that.
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Now, there were a number of other events which took place at the same time, basically just to, I suppose, take the view of Trump and also their own way of protesting, some involving celebrities.
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B
Yes, that's right. So there were events on the National Mall in Washington with people with big protest banners. They started about an hour before the speech was due to begin. Lots of protests about ice calling for people to ice to be abolished. And so they had, you know, about 30 of the. Of the Democrats who were boycotting the President's address and say they were addressing this alternative. And they're also talking about, you know, releasing the Epstein files, saying that they wanted more to be released. And there was also a kind of a more celebrity event at the National Press Club, which was called State of the Swamp. And that had Robert De Niro speaking there and see Robert De Niro saying it was about the country imploding with something inside. We can't allow it. He said, it's been brought to a head by a lunatic.
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And so across the press, I mean, is there one sort of take on how he came across?
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I think it's quite. It's quite sort of disparate so far. And I think people are just trying to sort of absorb the. The whole of this speech that was, you know, as we said, very kind of wide ranging and sort of rambling. But so I think people see it as a kind of, perhaps a kind of theater perhaps, you know, something that we have, you know, come to expect from Trump. But it's quite hard to. To get a handle on it, I think, just because of, you know, just. There was just so much of it. But I think, you know, sort of, you know, also some people noticing that Trump seemed, I think, quite tired, that he seemed to be leaning on his lectern a lot, that he was, you know, hold. Grabbing onto the edges of the lectern as he kind of held himself up with it. And there's some people saying, you know, he was actually, he had this very long speech, but he was finding it quite hard to get through.
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Let's turn to the. To the Louvre now because the director has quit. This is just four months after the heist and though, of course there were strikes that followed that. Tell us what she said.
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B
Yes, this is Laurence Descartes, who has left her job four months after. After the heist, and she's given a big interview to Le Figaro in Paris. And it's quite interesting because I think, you know, she is. She's trying to pull her punches a little bit, but not really succeeding very much. There's been a big political row in France about, About the state of the Louvre, but she's basically saying, I came in to try and reform this institution. But actually it is in an absolute state to put not too finer point on it. She was saying that, you know, the, she knew since she'd been there that the building was in a state of dilapidation, that the security systems weren't very good, that there was this massive problem with overcrowding as well and that she, you know, had a plan to try and, and deal with it, but that it was kind of overtake, overtaken by events. He said it just said the theft on the 19th of October put it in. It illuminated this in a cruel manner. Something which I've been trying to raise the alert about since I arrived. This old building, this obsolete technical thing and the, and the congestion problem. So she's really saying, look, I, I told you this was a problem. But you know, there's a lot of problems. She sees herself as like a lightning rod for all the criticisms. But you know, as well as the heist, there's been allegations of a 10 million euro ticket fraud scheme going on. There's been a leak in the roof right near the Mona Lisa. There's been these big problems of, of people getting stuck and, and you know, the staff going on strike. So it's not been, you know, it's not been a great time for the Louvre, let alone having, having the French Crown Jewels stolen.
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A
Absolutely. Well, certainly her career at the Louvre is dead and buried, but perhaps she might like to have a little lie down then in a cute coffin. Tell us about it.
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This is a very bizarre story. You know, one of these bizarre Japanese stories is reported in, in the Times Times this morning. And apparently it's a relaxation trend in Tokyo where if you are stressed out, you can rent out a cute coffin for 30. 30 minutes starts at 2,000 yen, which is approximately £9 50. You don't have to reserve, you know, obviously not too busy yet. You can listen to healing music, watch a video projected on the ceiling, meditate or just sleep. And the thing which absolutely freaks me out about this is not so much the lying in the coffin, but the fact that it can be a closed coffin as well. I just do not, do not shut me in a box for half an hour. After about two minutes I would be banging on the roof, jumping out of there. I don't, I don't think I would find that relaxing at all.
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No, I can't. Although I suppose people do those sort of hyperbaric flotations.
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Yeah, I wouldn't do that either. Yeah.
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How so what is it? Sort of death rehearsal?
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I think it's well One of the ideas, it says, you know, according in this article, beauty and death was a celebrated aesthetic in samurai time times. But this is more cutesy. And the people running it say they want to present a new approach to mourning from the perspective of fashion and art. And it also says, I mean, wants to reduce suicide, which is obviously a very serious thing. And it says that, you know, it has reduced or alleviated their thoughts of death. But again, I would say I would be very skeptical about that because if you're lying in a coffin, what else do you think about? Yeah, seems. Yeah, not one for me. I don't know.
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Terrence d' Yasti I promise we won't lock you in a coffin.
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G
Thank you.
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This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Iran is nearing an agreement with China to acquire supersonic anti ship cruise missiles that would significantly boost Tehran's strike capabilities. The talks intensified after last year's Israel, Iran war as the United States deploys a large naval armada to the region and warns Iran to reach a nuclear deal or face military action. Donald Trump used a record length State of the Union address to promote his economic record despite slipping approval ratings. Democrats responded with rebuttals and protests, arguing the economy will define the next midterm elections. And Australian leader Anthony Albanese was forced to leave his Canberra residence for several hours following a reported security threat. Authorities later confirmed nothing suspicious was found and there is no ongoing danger. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It is 8:30 in the Vatican, 7:30 here in London, and we're going to catch up with news from the world's smallest state. I'm joined now from Studio 4 in our Zurich headquarters by Juliet Lindley, journalist and former former Vatican correspondent, to bring us up to speed on the Pope's latest doings. Juliet, we're going to be talking about Republicans, relics and a refurb, I understand. How are you this morning?
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G
Good morning, Georgina. Blessings. And I love that intro. The three Rs.
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The three Rs or arses, if we're talking about Vance, which is where we begin.
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G
Ooh, yes. Well, that's a bit of a segue. Yeah. No, so there's.
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I just said Rs. We're talking about the Alphabet.
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G
You are. You did say that. As a matter of fact. There is so much ink being spilled and so many airways being filled analyzing what Trump said last night and what maybe wasn't mentioned, it was that he also brought up the alleged rise of Christianity in his country, especially amongst young people in the us. And he brought up Charlie Kirk and he referred to him as a martyr and his having been martyred for his beliefs and his wonderful wife. And actually, if you do a quick fact check, check the Christian numbers amongst young people, they haven't skyrocketed, they're pretty stable. But Anyway, back to J.D. vance. So J.D. vance famously invited Pope Leone. He's not the only member of the administration to have asked the first American Pope in history to come to the United States, particularly this year, since it's his first year in office and it's the 250th anniversary. And what? Well, as you said, J.D. vance is being dissed, or that's how some people are putting it. So Pope Leo has not only decided not to go to the US this year, but he's certainly going to mark the 4th of July, not with what Trump has called the most spectacular birthday party the world has ever seen, but by highlighting the plight of migrants on a small Mediterranean island south of Sicily called Lampedusa. So this is a gateway for refugees from Africa, from the Middle East. They often lose their lives, they suffer tragedies at sea trying to get to their new life in Europe. And Pope Leo has decided he is going to go for the 4th of July for American Independence Day there to highlight what is going on in the world of migration. And as you know, he has often called out the United States administration for its harsh stance on illegal immigrants. He did that in his first public address back in May when he was elected to the papacy. So this is a pretty significant move on the Vatican's behalf. And it comes just on the back of the Vatican refusing to join Donald Trump's Board of Peace, saying that that is the UN's job to manage international crises, and that needs to be respected. Georgina.
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A
I mean, it really is a significant move, as you say. And Pope Leo is absolutely standing up for what, what he believes and really making a statement about what he thinks of the US's version of Christianity completely.
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G
And I mean, it's no coincidence, this Fourth of July date. And I mean, he's even called out the Trump administration for its anti abortion stance. And the Catholic Church is firmly anti abortion, but he says, quote, treating immigrants in harsh manners inhumanely. I don't know that that is pro life. So you can't be pro life by taking a stance against abortion, but then treat migrants the way that is happening in certain parts of the United States today.
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A
Yeah. Now, Juliet, what is it with Catholic and relics? What's your obsession with these old bones on show? And how do you even know that they're genuine?
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G
Here I am speaking for the entire Catholic Church.
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It's your responsibility. Exactly.
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G
Well, Georgina, you have one month to get to Assisi. I'm sure you've been to Assisi. Everyone goes to Assisi. It's that pretty little hillside town in Umbria, just about an hour's drive from Rome, so not far. And you have a month to go and look at the relics or maybe even touch the Plexiglas barrier that covers the box in which the bones of St. Francis lie. So they were actually hidden. This is the first time that they've gone on public display. They've been hidden from view Only certain Franciscan friars periodically inspected them over the years. But they've been there for 800 years, Georgina, and this is your chance to see them. What you gotta do is you gotta go to a website, stfrancisliveson.org and you get a QR code and you join the already 400,000 pilgrims. This is not joke. This is very serious stuff for certain people. The 400,000 pilgrims who have already raised registered to go to the crypt inside the Basilica of San Francesco and to view the relics. Now, 80% so far registered are Italians, but about 5,000 are coming from the U.S. another 5,000 from the Balkans, and a couple of thousand from France and Brazil.
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Extraordinary, extraordinary. All right, onto the refurb, then.
- [35:54]
G
Yes, onto the refurb. So from. From relics to pizzas atop a dome. So the Vatican has announced. Announced a number of upgrades because they're marking another anniversary, and that is the 400th anniversary since the consecration of the magnificent Basilica of St. Peter's so back in 1626, it was consecrated. And now the celebrations have begun. They began a few days ago through the Lenten season, all the way to November. They will end with a special Papal Mass. And here are the things that you can expect to mark this for hundredth anniversary. So, first of all, there's been a refurbishment of the snack bar atop the cupola so you can have a bite. In the shadow of Michelangelo's iconic dome, the snack bar has been doubled in size. Neck bar, as they would say in Italy. Because you can't just call it a bar because the foreigners will think it's serving alcohol. No, bars serve tremezzino sandwiches, toasties and everything. And so they have doubled it in size. And of course, the Italian press are kind of like. But wait, really, did we really need to be serving, like, even more tostis and pizzas in this sacred spot. But the cardinal in charge says, yep, it's absolutely okay. You know, visitors who make that climb deserve to be refreshed. Now, Georgina, this is interesting because to get to the dome, it's a very narrow, winding, 400-year-old staircase that you need to take. And actually, when I interviewed the firefighting squad at the Vatican, because they also have their own firefighters, they told me that a lot of times their main job is to go up that winding stairway and rescue pilgrims who have actually conked out or are too exhausted to go neither up nor down. And they need to bring them down in stretchers.
- [37:34]
A
And they obviously need a good chamozini or something definitely to give them the energy to get either either up nor down. Julia, it must be exhausting for you, defending Catholicism for all, especially on the Monocle Airways.
- [37:46]
G
But I have one last fun fact.
- [37:48]
A
Oh, yes.
- [37:49]
G
And I know that you're going to love this. So not only is there the new snack bar, let's not joke about that. There are also new QR codes if you want to visit the basilica. And you can go online and register to enter the basilica, so you don't have to have those snaky queues that always take place. But also, Georgina, the Vatican has put out a new font. It's available in Microsoft Office. It's called Michelangelos, and it's styled using Michelangelo Buonarroti's handwriting. I know that you're gonna change your fonts. I'm going to be using that.
- [38:17]
A
Oh, I am.
- [38:18]
G
Email.
- [38:18]
A
Absolutely. So looking that up. How fantastic.
- [38:22]
G
Splendid.
- [38:22]
A
I'm. I'm very happy that you drew my attention to that. That is how I shall be signing off on everything from now on. Juliet Lindley in Zurich, thank you so much.
- [38:31]
G
Thank you.
- [38:32]
A
This is Monocle Radio. It is 7:38 here in London. That's 2:38 in Ottawa. Now, Canada has announced it's preparing to assist Cuba as Washington tightens restrictions on oil supplies to the island, worsening fuel shortages, prompting rolling blackouts and raising fears of a humanitarian crisis. Well, I'm joined now in the studio by John Everard, former British diplomat, expert on Latin America, and a commentator on Cuba. John, welcome back to the studio. What are the details of Canada's plan and is it confirmed?
- [39:37]
H
There are no details. The Foreign minister, Anita Anand, simply said that they were preparing an assistance package for Cuba and refused to give further details on Monday. We know nothing more. What can Canada do? I mean, what Cuba desperately needs right now is fuel oil. And it'd be very hard for Canada logistically to get that to Cuba. Moreover, President Trump has said that anybody who supplies oil to Cuba themselves are subject to sanctions, which is what's caused Mexico in particular to cut off the oil taps. So maybe humanitarian aid of some kind. How are you going to get it there? If you fly a plane in, you can't refuel in Cuba. There's no aviation fuel.
- [40:17]
A
Extraordinary. So, I mean, we wonder then, how directly the US Restrictions are driving this crisis in Cuba. Is that the only factor long term?
- [40:26]
H
No long term. The crisis has been caused by almost comical economic incompetence by the Cuban government destroying viable industries, trying to run everything by straight bureaucrats, and destroying of market incentive. The kind of market reforms that we've seen in many other socialist countries simply haven't happened in Cuba. And the economy has plummeted since 2020. It's contracted by at least 16%, one and a half percent contraction last year alone. But through all this, the United States blockade in various forms has been a major factor in Cuba's decline ever since President Kennedy announced it. It's made life and trade, in particular, extremely difficult for Cuba. And the tightening of the noose that President Trump has announced means that, for example, in January, Cuba received no, no, no oil at all.
- [41:13]
A
Why is energy the pressure point?
- [41:16]
H
Because Cuba is entirely reliant on oil supplies for its energy. It is only now very belatedly waking up to the possibilities of solar power. There's plenty of sunshine in Cuba. It probably won't be able to get the panels installed fast enough to come anything close to meeting its energy needs. So that at the moment, Cuba is undergoing regular long blackouts. People are only being given a short window in which to recharge their mobile phones or cook a meal. It's causing terrible health problems because the garbage trucks can't work. And in a climate like Cuba's, if you leave rubbish on the street very quickly, you get infestations of rats and mosquitoes.
- [41:55]
A
So is Canada's motive genuine humanitarian intervention, or could it also be a challenge to US policy, a bit of a political provocation?
- [42:04]
H
I think there's probably an element of both. I mean, Mark Carney has made very clear where he stands on all this. I think Canada also will be watching very carefully what. What happens to the Seahorse, the Russian oil tanker that is chundering its way towards Cuba with 200,000 barrels of oil on board. President Trump has said that he will apply sanctions to anybody who supplies oil to Cuba. He hasn't yet applied sanctions to Russia for this. Okay, technically the Seahorse is under the Cameroonian flag, but I doubt if President Trump would worry about a legality like that. So Canada will what? I think if the seahorse actually docks and discharges oil, supposed to happen next week sometime, then Canada might feel a bit freer to do something.
- [42:44]
A
So, I mean, we know that Donald Trump rarely lets any perceived slight go by, but Mark Carney has proved unafraid and quite adept at handling him. Given that the relationship between the two countries are tense already, how sensitive is this for U.S. canada relations? How might it pan out?
- [43:03]
H
It certainly if Canada does deliver something useful to Cuba, it's hardly going to help the relationship. But I get the sense that Mark Carney, I mean, who's perhaps rather cleverer than Donald Trump, not a high bar, but he seems to have got the man sussed that he's calculated this and believes he can get away with it. Remember that Cuba is important to Canadians. Canadians were, I think, the second largest cohort of tourists to Cuba. Lots and lots of Canadians went to Cuba before everything went pear shaped to escape the Canadian winter. Much nicer to spend January lying on a Cuban beach than fighting the snow drifts.
- [43:42]
A
And I wonder if Canada does go ahead with this successfully, could it embolden others to step in?
- [43:48]
H
Yes, I think everybody's watching everybody else to see what Trump does. If the Seahorse does discharge its cargo, Canada is much more likely to act. I suspect that Mexico will then feel emboldened to let at least a trickle of oil get back to Cuba. What Venezuela does, who knows.
- [44:04]
A
And just briefly, what is life like for Cubans right now?
- [44:07]
H
Really tough. It's very hard to work because of course there's no fuel. You can't turn lights on, you can't run machinery, it's hard to find basic foodstuffs in some places. The UN has warned of humanitarian catastrophe if this goes on. And there's a general feeling in the island that this can't go on much longer.
- [44:26]
A
John Everard, thank you so much for coming in. This is the globalist on Monocle Radio, Iq, EQ and AI, three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft. Nine 44 in Kyiv, 844 in Paris. And we're going to cross to our bureau in the French capital now, where I'm joined from Studio 5 by Monocle's Europe editor at large, Ed Stocker. Ed, you're really living up to your title. You're usually in Milan, but you're joining us from Paris this morning. What have you been getting up to there?
- [45:31]
I
Yeah, exactly. You know, I need to get about a bit as Europe editor at large. It's great to be in Paris. I've been.
- [45:39]
H
Yeah.
- [45:39]
I
Out and about on the streets of Paris and attending some events. Obviously, yesterday was a big day marking the fourth year of war in Ukraine. And, you know, as you would expect here in France, it was sort of blanket news, you know, on television. The newspapers here leading with full pages about Ukraine. You know, both papers. Well, both papers that I have in front of me from yesterday, basically dealing with the same headline, Le Mans, talking about the risk of an endless war, and Les Echo, as well as talking about this endless war in Ukraine. You know, there was a feeling, I think, when the war started that, you know, it would perhaps be over quickly, that Ukraine would perhaps capitulate. So everyone involved is surprised, including European Union members, that we're here four years on and Ukraine has proved resilient and the war is still going on with no necessary outcome in sight, despite tentative peace talks that are still ongoing and aren't showing much sign of leading anywhere at the moment. And the reason we're talking about all of this is because. Because I went to an event about Ukraine with some distinguished guests last night in Paris, Georgia.
- [47:04]
A
And I know that you also have spoken to Dmitry Kuleba.
- [47:09]
I
Yeah, I have. So just to briefly tell you, this event was kind of trying to look for solutions. What next in Ukraine? It was held at Sciences Po, which of course is one of the premier institutions, educational universities in France. It's where Emmanuel Macron went. He was class of 2001. It's where sort of all the elite political establishment, or many of them attend the panel was the European Commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, was their human rights lawyer, Oleksandra Matvichuk, and also Odile Renaud Bassot, the president of the European bank for Reconstruction and Development. They were all trying to find solution, what needs to change. There was a lot of talk. You know, Europe has been very supportive. There's just been a loan package approved recently. This month, they're talking about a 20 20th sanctions package. But there was a talk about a need to change the mindset, not about helping Ukraine not to fail, but helping Ukraine to actually win. And you mentioned that. I spoke to Dmytro Kuleber. He is the former Foreign Minister of Ukraine. He's now a adjunct professor at Sciences Po. I caught up with him last night, in fact, and we're going to play a recording of our conversation.
- [48:31]
C
Wars are hard to start, but even harder to end. There are only two ways of putting the war to an end. It's either breaking the will or running out of resources. Ukraine still has the will and resources, while Russia also still has the will and resources to continue fighting. So until one of these moments occur, sure, either the will of Russia or Ukraine is broken, or either of us runs out of resources, you will see the end of the war. But as long as both availabilities are there, I'm afraid the struggle will continue.
- [49:09]
I
And obviously Ukraine is reliant on partners that will help it. In the past, you've been critical of European decision making as being slow. So how do you feel today about how Europe is helping Ukraine look at
- [49:25]
C
the map and how different Russia and Ukraine look like, and then come to terms with the fact that neither Ukraine nor Russia can sustain this war without the help of partners, Europe on the Ukrainian side and China on the Russian side. So Russia is not capable of sustaining this scale of war war without being enabled by Chinese technologies and assistance in manufacturing. Europe has been doing much better compared to 2022, but unfortunately, I cannot say that this is enough because the war
- [50:03]
I
still continues and there's still disagreements about whether to send troops and things like that. Not everyone is in agreement for how to, I guess, help Ukraine.
- [50:13]
C
Well, the difference between 2022 and now when it comes to the EU, is that we're not speaking about the unity in the union anymore. It is the coalitions of the willing that replaced the union as such. But as long as weapons flow, as long as critical decisions are being made, we can live with that.
- [50:37]
I
You've described yourself as an optimist in the past. Do you still feel optimistic about Ukraine?
- [50:43]
C
Absolutely. It's my country. How can I wish bad for my country? And moreover, I see some first signs of addressing the problems that held us back in previous years. I also see that Russia is not on the brink, but is heading in that direction. So if all of us do what we ought to do, yeah, the war will end on good terms for us.
- [51:12]
I
How important is it to do events like this to speak about Ukraine? Because sometimes we see with the media, they move on from stories or people get war fatigue. It's just too difficult for people to keep up with. So how important is it for you to, I guess, Keep reminding people about what's happening.
- [51:32]
C
Oh, absolutely. Framing the war, controlling the narrative are essential parts of the struggle. And if you want to remain in the spotlight, you have to speak up. Wartime diplomats are fighting for people's attention around the globe as much as they're fighting for weapons for their country and sanctions against the enemy.
- [51:54]
I
Do you see peace negotiations coming to fruition, actually achieving something this year?
- [51:58]
C
There is a slim chance for that, but it's not zero. And it depends on two things. Whether Ukraine, with the support of its partners, will be able to stop Russian advances on the battlefield, and whether Ukraine's partners, with the support of Kyiv, will be able to cut Russia off of its oil revenues because it is money from oil that actually oil Russia's war machine. So we need to achieve this. Two things to put Putin in a position where he will have to make a deal.
- [52:35]
I
We've talked a lot about Europe, but obviously the US is also a key partner. Trump has often been unclear about which line he's taking. Do you think you can do it alone? Do you think you can progress with a US that is not always that clear in its position and just with Europe? Or do you think you need the US just as much as Europe?
- [52:58]
C
The fact is that we won't get a better Trump, Neither we in Kyiv nor our friends in Paris or London. The second fact is, as long as Ukraine and the rest of European nations stand together and build up their capabilities, neither President Trump nor President Putin will be able to impose their will on us. We have to accept Trump as he is and build the relationship. Relationship which is not exclusively reliant on the contributions of the United States of America. It's healthy thing for both Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
- [53:37]
A
That was Ukraine's former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleva in conversation with Monocle's Ed Stocker in Paris last night. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now, the Abu Dhabi based airline Etihad has posted a record annual profit and I feel somewhat personally responsible having used it extensively over the last few months to find out why I'm not the only one choosing this Middle Eastern carrier. I'm joined now by by Monocle's Guelph correspondent Inzaman Rashid, who is is in Dubai. Insi, hello to you.
- [54:21]
J
Hello, Georgina. I'm quite offended that if you've used Etihad Airways, why sometimes over the last few months, why you haven't come and said hi to me.
- [54:29]
A
I'm so sorry. Insy we're gonna have to Rectify that.
- [54:33]
J
We are, we definitely are.
- [54:35]
A
But one of the problems, I've got to say, before we get onto how fabulous it is, is that Abu Dhabi Airport has these little glass boxes if you want to smoke, and only six people are allowed in them at a time and they're really horrible. Whereas if I go via Changi, which involves a different airline, you get to smoke in a roof garden. It's important, I know, but probably only to me.
- [54:56]
J
Well, look, this is crucial information that I can pass on to the team at Etihad whenever I get into a meeting room with them again very soon.
- [55:04]
A
I would like that, along with the fact that I would like an automatic upgrade every time. Please, now tell them, tell us why their profit, apart from yours and mine, extensive use, has risen so much.
- [55:17]
J
Look, I think it's probably fair to say that to have Airways is one of the fastest growing airlines in the world right now. And this, these numbers that were released by the airline over the last couple of days has kind of signified that, in a way is its strongest financial performance to date. A record profit of 2.6 billion dirhams for 2025, that's up nearly 50% year on year. Passenger numbers have climbed above 22 million. Revenues have hit more than around 6 billion pounds. And the airline says that this marks a defining moment in its turnaround. What they've got over the next five years is a bit of a five year plan that they've put together. They're expecting to hire 3,000 employees, employees every year until 2030. They're expanding the network with extra routes, increasing flight capacity and also increasing its fleet as well. They've ordered 29 new jets just at the back end of last year and they're actually hoping for the arrival of 20 aircraft per year. So, look, this is an airline that is absolutely growing and has actually had a pretty rapid turnaround over the last few years. That's probably down to actually, Georgina, the man at the helm, Antonaldo Neves, who's had a career at Tap Air previously in Portugal, came in and basically turned around Jihad Airways after it, it fell to a bit of a slump, competing against Emirates and Qatar Airways here in the region. I think now, now it's very much a strong contender to compete against those pretty top airlines.
- [57:06]
A
Absolutely. And of course they're on a big hiring drive too.
- [57:10]
J
Yeah. And I think that's quite interesting because, particularly for pilots, that they're increasing the number of pilots that they're hiring out here as they get more planes as part of their fleet as they increase the number of routes as well. They're also flying to some pretty interesting destinations. They've added many of those destinations to their portfolio like Atlanta, Prague, Warsaw, Hanoi, Hong Kong as well. They're really focusing hugely on the Far East. And then obviously there's a big push for cabin crew as well. 1,600 cabin crew will be were employed last year and the plan is to hire just as many every year for the next five years as well. So when you look at the number of planes that are coming, the number of routes that are being added, they also want to just increase the number of people actually working for the airline. And what's pretty interesting about Etihad and I've had conversations with the CEO, Anton Aldo Moncal is pretty much in touch with the team at Etihad quite frequently, is that this is an airline that's also doubling down on luxury. So when we specifically look at their business class, that first class offering, which is a really beautiful cabin, both of them, they're doubling down on their luxury offering, which I think is very interesting for an airline in this day and age. You know, making sure that they're pumping money, a lot of cash into making sure that luxury offering is still there.
- [58:57]
A
Absolutely. Insi, thank you so much. That's Inzamin Rashid, Monocle's Gulf correspondent, speaking to us from Dubai. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Hassan Anderson, Laura Kramer and Desiree Bandley, our researcher Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager, Steph Chungu. After the head headlines, there's more music on the way and the briefing is live at midday. In London, the Globalist will return at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.