The Globalist – "Munich Security Conference 2026: A New Era in Geopolitics?"

Podcast: The Globalist (Monocle)
Host: Emma Nelson
Date: February 16, 2026

Overview

This episode centers on the outcomes and shifting dynamics from the 2026 Munich Security Conference (MSC), zooming in on the evolving transatlantic alliance, European defense autonomy, U.S.-Europe relations under the Trump administration, and how these changes ripple through global hotspots such as the Arctic, Africa, Cuba, and Taiwan. Broadcast in Monocle’s signature blend of sharp international news and engaging conversational analysis, the episode features insightful interviews and on-the-ground reporting from key figures and correspondents.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Munich Security Conference Debrief

Transatlantic Relations & European Security

• Shift since 2025: The paradigm continues to move away from Europe relying solely on the U.S. for security. There’s heightened recognition that Europe must shoulder more of its own defense, especially after last year’s volatile speech by U.S. Senator J.D. Vance.

• Contrasting Rhetoric: While German Chancellor Friedrich Merz highlighted "deep divisions" (04:41), U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for revitalization of the alliance. Europeans, however, felt the substance behind the American message hadn’t changed, despite a softer tone.

  “We are happy that ... he [Rubio] came in with a slightly more dulcet tone ... But at the same time, the message was the same. ... The transatlantic relationship as we've come to know it, will not be the same going forward.”
  — Anita Riota (Monocle), 05:13

• Values-Based Tension: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas pushed back on U.S. critiques of "woke, decadent Europe" and stressed ongoing interest in joining European structures, citing Canada as an example (06:16).

• Ukrainian Valor: President Zelensky's presence was notable, emphasizing that “today only Ukraine is defending Europe” (07:40), a quote that resonated with both delegates and listeners.

2. Arctic Geopolitics & U.S.-Greenland Tensions

[10:33–15:39]
Guests: U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski & Andrew Muller (Monocle)

• Arctic Security Isn’t Partisan: Senator Murkowski advocated for respectful dialogue with Greenland/Denmark as security interests in the Arctic rise. She criticized any U.S. rhetoric about “occupying” Greenland as disrespectful and divisive.

  “When words like occupy, or take over, or acquire are used, that disrespects a sovereign territory, disrespects the autonomy of the people of Greenland. That's a problem.”
  — Lisa Murkowski, 10:33

• NATO’s Arctic Blind Spot: Ongoing underinvestment in Arctic infrastructure is a problem for both the western (Alaska) and eastern (Greenland) flanks, she argued.

• U.S. Congressional Presence: Murkowski emphasized congressional—and bipartisan—engagement, critiquing executive rhetoric while seeking to maintain Arctic security as a nonpartisan issue.

3. Italy-Africa Relations & the Mattei Plan

[17:43–22:42]
Guest: Patricia Rodriguez (Control Risks, Nairobi)

• Italy’s Assertiveness: Italy, under PM Giorgia Meloni, is increasingly asserting itself in Africa through the €5 billion Mattei Plan, prioritizing energy, infrastructure, and migration solutions.

• Geopolitical Play: Beyond migration, the move aims to position Italy as an independent global player, not just an EU proxy.

• U.S. Role: The Trump administration’s withdrawal of foreign aid and preference for commercial agreements has unsettled African partners, marking a shift from aid to investment-focused relations.

  “The abrupt way in which the Trump administration has pulled back on its aid commitments ... I think was pretty startling.”
  — Patricia Rodriguez, 21:37

4. Russian Sabotage in Europe – Wagner’s Evolution

[24:23–26:58]
Analysis by: Simon Brooke (Journalist)

• Wagner Group's New Tactics: The Financial Times reports ex-Wagner operatives are now orchestrating sabotage in NATO countries, recruiting “economically vulnerable” Europeans for arson and attacks.
• Proxy Risks: Such recruitment opts for deniability and scale over competence, with arrested saboteurs already showing reduced secrecy.

5. China’s Military Purges – Echoes of Mao

[27:55–29:41]

• Xi’s Perpetual Cleansing: Analysis of Xi Jinping’s ongoing military purges, likening the approach to Maoist tactics of maintaining control and loyalty among military leadership. This could signal internal weakness or serve a strategic imperative for unwavering obedience.

6. Cuba’s Humanitarian Crisis and U.S. Regime Change

[33:42–39:08]
Guest: Yossi Meckelberg (Chatham House)

• Impact of Oil Blockades: The U.S. “starvation” approach (oil embargoes and sanctions) is producing severe power shortages (up to 18 hours/day), pushing Cuba towards humanitarian crisis.
• Regime Management, Not Change: The U.S. is seen not as pursuing direct intervention but as creating conditions for collapse—which may or may not work, given Cuba’s historical resilience.
• Regional Ripple Effect: U.S. leverage in Venezuela and Cuba could reshape geopolitical alignments in Latin America, but is seen as making few friends for America.

7. Taiwan–US Trade Deal & Cross-Strait Dynamics

[39:46–44:47]
Guest: Brian (New Bloom magazine)

• Substance of Agreement: U.S. will reduce tariffs on Taiwanese goods; Taiwan will remove some tariffs on U.S. products, boosting its status to par with Japan and the EU.
• Concerns & Politics: Fears of impact on Taiwan’s key semiconductor industry (the "silicon shield") and local agriculture remain. For President Lai’s government, the deal is a political win, but opposition from the KMT (which is pro-unification) is significant.
• China’s Likely Response: Beijing is expected to focus more on arms sales than the trade deal itself, but the deepening U.S.-Taiwan link is nonetheless strategic.

8. Japan’s Economic Outlook & EU 'Two-Speed' Shift

[45:34–52:53]
Guest: Vicky Price (Economist)

• Japan’s Sluggish Growth: Growth remains weak (0.2% annualized), weighed down by stagnant exports and slow wage gains. PM Sanae Takechi plans to cut taxes and expand public spending, but with debt at 250% of GDP, room for maneuver is limited.
• EU Fragmentation: Moves toward an unofficial “two-speed Europe” are gaining traction, especially in capital markets and potentially defense, as not all members want or can move at the same pace. This could boost EU competitiveness if managed carefully.

9. On the Ground: Monocle at the Olympics

[53:20–58:59]
Andrew Muller reporting from Milan

• Andrew Muller gives a lively preview of Monocle’s continued Milan Winter Olympics coverage, praising athletes' courage and the event’s logistical marvels. He teases interviews with top Olympic officials and athletes coming up.

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “The message that the transatlantic relationship as we've come to know it, will not be the same going forward.”
  — Anita Riota, 05:13

• “Contrary to what some may say, woke decadent Europe is not facing civilizational erasure.”
  — Kaja Kallas (quoted by Emma Nelson), 06:16

• “Today only Ukraine is defending Europe.”
  — President Zelensky (paraphrased by Anita Riota), 08:11

• “When words like occupy or take over or acquire are used, that disrespects a sovereign territory.”
  — Sen. Lisa Murkowski, 10:33

• “The abrupt way in which the Trump administration has pulled back on its aid commitments ... I think was pretty startling.”
  — Patricia Rodriguez, 21:37

• “[Wagner’s] recruitment allows these Russian agencies to sort of keep their distance ... but what Russian spy chiefs gain in scale and cost by using these proxies ... they lose in competence and secrecy.”
  — Simon Brooke, 26:37

• “Instead of sending troops for regime change, [the U.S.] is trying to starve the country of oil and hope that people will go to the street and topple the regime.”
  — Yossi Meckelberg, 35:57

• “If you remove all these people with experience, with knowledge ... then where does that leave you?”
  — Simon Brooke, on Xi’s purges, 29:21

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Munich Security Conference Analysis: 03:32–08:39
• Interview with Sen. Lisa Murkowski: 10:33–15:39
• Italy-Africa Summit & Mattei Plan: 17:43–22:42
• Wagner Group in Europe: 24:23–26:58
• China’s Military Purges: 27:55–29:41
• Cuba’s Crisis: 33:42–39:08
• Taiwan–US Trade Deal: 39:46–44:47
• Japan & EU Economic Shifts: 45:34–52:53
• Winter Olympics Coverage from Milan: 53:20–58:59

Conclusion

This episode of The Globalist provides an incisive snapshot of a turning-point moment in global security, European self-determination, U.S. foreign policy, and the undercurrents shifting the future of continents from the Arctic to Africa and Asia. By weaving together on-the-ground reporting, high-profile interviews, and expert analysis, Monocle offers listeners a nuanced guide to the new era in geopolitics shaped by evolving alliances and rising global tensions.