← The Globalist
Loading summary
Transcript137 lines
- [00:04]
UBS Announcer
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
- [00:38]
Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 16 February 2026 on Monocor Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London, this is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, after the US Offers a hand to Europe this weekend, what did Marco Rubio's speech to the Munich Security Conference do to calm transatlantic relations? Will examine this weekend's events.
- [01:26]
Lisa Murkowski
And if we need to enhance our presence, let's talk to the Greenlanders. Let's talk about how we can enhance and build on our shared Arctic security interests.
- [01:38]
Emma Nelson
We will have an interview with the U.S. senator for Alaska, who will explain why Donald Trump is still determined to have Greenland. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, can the US precipitate regime change in Cuba? We'll ask why. What Italy wants from Africa as a summit is held in Addis Ababa and transport in terms of impact will never.
- [01:59]
Brian
Be greater than if you have to build everywhere. So we're trying to minimize the impact by using collective means rather than individuals.
- [02:08]
Emma Nelson
Christophe Duby, the executive director of the Olympic Games. He'll be speaking to Monaco Radio a little later as week two of our Olympics coverage from Milan begins. Plus, we'll go through the papers, too. That's all coming up on THE Globalist, live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in today's news. The man accused of carrying out the Bondi beach shooting has appeared in a video link at a Sydney magistrates court. For the first time, Israel's prime minister has demanded the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran as part of any deal on Tehran's nuclear program. And the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has presided over the completion ceremony of a newly built set of apartments for bereaved families of soldiers killed in military operations in Russia. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, as the Munich Security Conference drew to a close yesterday, the transatlantic relationship was more in the spotlight than ever. Were we looking at deep divisions between Europe and the US as warned by the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, or should we take heart from the words of the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who stressed that Washington wanted a strong Europe and a revitalized transatlantic relationship. So who won? Well, I'm joined now by Monocle Radio's producer of the Foreign desk, Anita Riota, who's been in Munich throughout this weekend, has literally just got back. Welcome back.
- [03:33]
Anita Riota
Thank you very much, Emma.
- [03:34]
Emma Nelson
Good to have you in the studio, Anita. So your sort of one takeaway from how it felt in Munich this year, because this time last year, everybody was reading, reeling from J.D. vance. I remember you saying things felt a little bit more settled this time around. Absolutely.
- [03:50]
Anita Riota
And you're right to bring up the J.D. vance speech from last year, because that was still very much setting the, the bar for this meeting. I think the sense amongst delegates was how much progress have we made from that moment, which really, as listeners know, just completely shifted the paradigm of the last 80 years of the transatlantic relationship. This time both on the American side and the European side, the sense was how much diplomatic process progress have we made on that front? How much have we increased defense spending? How much is Europe taking seriously the fact that it has to, in a way, rise to the occasion and see that its defense can no longer be solely expected to rely on the United States? And it did seem like progress on those fronts had been made.
- [04:41]
Emma Nelson
It's interesting because these are the questions that the Europeans were asking themselves just before Donald Trump was reelected. Can they step up at speed and efficiently? And yet they're still trying to sort themselves out. And what was noticeable over the weekend, as I mentioned at the beginning of this, is that we had Friedrich Merz addressing the US Contingent in English, saying that the transatlantic relationship was subject to deep divisions. But then we had Marco Rubio coming up and saying, well, let's revitalize it. Do we know who kind of won this argument?
- [05:13]
Anita Riota
Look, I think the impression I received from the Europeans we spoke to after Secretary Rubio's speech was, you can put it in prettier packaging, but the message is the same. We are happy that, you know, he came in with a slightly more dulcet tone about Europe's responsibility and Europe needing to, to, to do more, to defend itself. But at the same time, the message was the same. The message that the transatlantic relationship as we've come to know it, will not be the same going forward. That message was there. And as you're saying, the fact that he was trying to tie the two parties together through a shared history is not even still what the Europeans want to hear. The Europeans want to hear that we have security and Val, shared security interests and shared values. And that is what keeps this alliance strong and moving into the future. Not some sort of, you know, fairly whitewashed historical ties.
- [06:16]
Emma Nelson
And finding values is something that the EU foreign policy chief, Kayakallis talked about yesterday. Quite a. I think it was described by one commentator as snarky, which I thought was quite an interesting adjective. But she was responding to Rubio and she said that contrary to what some may say, woke decadent Europe is not facing civilizational erasure. And she says that some countries still want to join our club and not just fellow Europeans. She was talking about Canada at this point. The fact that it is talking. We're talking about woke decadent Europe and civilizational erasure. It's all pointing to those values that you talk about as well. But it also seems pretty personal. Absolutely.
- [06:57]
Anita Riota
I mean, I think we absolutely got the sense also from the conversations we had both on and off the record, that entry and admittance into the European club, whether that is the EU or sort of just the rapprochement that you are seeing across the continent, that is still very much the name of the game. And we spoke to ministers, defense ministers all along, sort of Russia's border, saying that it is really important for them to prioritize accession into the EU and to make sure that their ties with their European allies are stronger than ever. So in a sense, you know, Rubio's comments have, I do really believe, have brought European partners that had maybe taken each other for granted or not really invested in these relationships in the last few years to realize that actually this is what we have and, and this is who we can rely on. We had the honor of hearing a speech and sitting in the same room as President Zelensky over the weekend. And one of the things that he said that really stuck with me the most was today only Ukraine is defending Europe.
- [08:11]
Emma Nelson
Wow. So you have now this situation that you have, the most embattled country having to sort of rise up to defend European values. But the American voice was still very loud there, wasn't it? And as part of your many interviews, actually, I'll ask you who it is that we've actually got in the bag that we're going to hear in the foreign desk in the in future weeks. But there were some. There were some strong American voices on the ground, weren't there?
- [08:40]
Anita Riota
Absolutely. And look, it's not to pretend that the pull and the weight of Washington, D.C. is now sort of forgone. Of course, it looms very large over the entire conference I would say that the American voices there are trying to both. Both acknowledge how different this moment is and how maybe the. The sort of more veteran delegates would say that this is certainly not the tone America should be striking with its allies. But now there does seem to be a little bit more of, okay, well, we're here. You know, last year was shock and, and a bit of devastation, to be honest with you. This year was a bit more of, okay, this is the situation we find ourselves in. These are the advocates, these are the representatives that the White House will put forward. I will both voice my disagreement if that is how I feel. But I also need to bring into focus, you know, the issues that I think are important, whether it is the defense of Ukraine, whether it is American democracy. And, you know, what is amazing about, as you're saying about really being there on the ground is you cannot believe the amount of power that is in the Bayer Hoff Hotel over those three days. You know, as a journalist, you're just escorted through so that you, I think, behave and stick to the places and things that you said you would. But the sort of desire to just reach out and grab people and pull them into an interview is so strong, and sometimes you are able to do that. And we were very lucky that we were able to speak with sitting US Senator Lisa Murkowski for, from Alaska to tell us a bit about why she was there, how she has lived, you know, the Arctic being thrust on the international stage. This is what she had to tell us.
- [10:33]
Lisa Murkowski
Relationships matter. How we treat our friends matter. The trust that has built up over decades and generations matters. And so when words like occupy or take over or acquire are used, that disrespects a sovereign territory, disrespects the autonomy of the people of Greenland. That's a problem. But I don't think that it is something that cannot be reconciled through honest dialogue, openness about what is being sought. If we're talking about shared security interests in the Arctic space, let's talk about it. We have been doing it with Greenland for decades now. If we need to enhance our presence, let's talk to the Greenlanders, let's talk to the Kingdom of Denmark about how we can enhance and build on our shared Arctic security interests.
- [11:36]
Andrew Muller
You've been to Greenland recently. I mean, arriving there now as a U.S. senator and a Republican U.S. senator, was the welcome at all equivocal?
- [11:45]
Lisa Murkowski
I didn't feel it. I didn't feel it at all. In fact, I felt that there was an appreciation for the fact that there was A bipartisan delegation from the United States that was there to really share the message of we want to engage in a cooperative dialogue. We want to build on our relationship. We're not seeking to divide and if anything, to present a little calm to the situation, which has understandably just been wrought with anxiety. The people of Greenland have been very, very anxious and understandably so, which is.
- [12:28]
Andrew Muller
What I found when I was there myself a couple of weeks before that, during that period, which I guess was the peak of the is this really happening or not phase. How personally strange was that for you? Because we've spoken before about the United States not taking seriously its own patch of Arctic security that is the state you represent. Were you sitting at home in Juneau thinking, how on earth did we get to this?
- [12:53]
Lisa Murkowski
We need to recognize that the Arctic has been, I think, underappreciated, not just by the United States, but around the NATO countries. Investment in the Arctic has been limited at best. And so there's a great deal of focus right now on Greenland and what we need to do for security on that eastern side of the continent. But I will maintain that just as important, as vitally important, is ensuring that on the western side, where Alaska sits right smack next to Russia, that we also need to appreciate that investment in infrastructure, investment in everything from the communications to defense to what we need to do from an economic security perspective. We've got work to do in the Arctic. And so when you suggest that the way to address that is to occupy Greenland, that just creates division and dissension rather than a focus on the real issue, which is what are we going to do jointly, cooperatively, to protect this vast area of the globe that is pretty wide open right now on that.
- [14:14]
Andrew Muller
Thought and also, I guess, on the subject of ambiguous welcomes, what's it been like being a Republican U.S. senator coming to this event? Are you getting Europeans saying, seriously, how are we expected to do another three years of this?
- [14:28]
Lisa Murkowski
Well, in fairness to the question, I just arrived a few hours ago, and so I haven't been pelted with those types of questions. But I think it's important to recognize that there may be views and positions that are expressed by the administration. We're going to hear from Secretary Rubio tomorrow. That's important for this dialogue, this broader dialogue that's going on. But the Congress is also a separate but equal branch in the United States government. I think it's important that you have members of Congress that are here to express their views, their constituents views, and also that you hear from Republicans and Democrats. I would like to think that when it comes to Arctic security, it's not a partisan issue. It's not something that divides us by party. And so it's going to be interesting to hear some of the commentary from folks in these next couple days.
- [15:19]
Andrew Muller
And are you at least hoping that Secretary Rubio spent some of the flight here, you know, catching up with how to win friends and influence people in a way that Vice President Batts clearly didn't last year?
- [15:29]
Lisa Murkowski
You know, I have known Secretary Rubio for a long period of time, and he is a man with quick wit and a lot of charm. So I'm hoping that tomorrow morning is going to be a great conversation.
- [15:40]
Emma Nelson
Lisa Murkowski, the US Senator for Alaska, consummate diplomat there. Anita Riotti is staying with us just for one moment, just to explain to us, having been to the Munich Security conference, grabbing people left, right and center for the purpose of doing interviews, who've we got coming up that we can look forward to listening to?
- [15:57]
Anita Riota
We are really thrilled about the smattering of people that we've had. We have the Finnish defence Minister telling us about how to really prepare, in technical terms, against the threat of Russia from a country that obviously shares a very large border with the nation. We spoke to Benjamin Haddad, the French Minister for EU affairs, both about actually France's upcoming election, but also more importantly about how he sees the EU's role continuing to take center stage. You know, as we discussed the this transatlantic relationship shifting. And then we spoke also to a few Americans. We spoke to Kurt Volker, the former US Special Representative for Ukraine negotiations. Bill Browder, one of the business who used to do the most amount of business in Russia, now has, is sort of leading the charge on how you can hurt and, and hit Russia's economy to help end the war. So we have perspectives, really from all over the world coming up.
- [16:56]
Emma Nelson
Anita Riota, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. Welcome back from Munich. You're listening to the Globalist. We're live on Monocle Radio. The time here in London is 7.16am. It's what, 10:16am in Addis Ababa, 7:16am here in London. Now, Italy's prime minister has pledged to deepen ties with African nations, saying that any successful partnership would depend on her country's ability to draw from, and I quote, African wisdom and to ensure lessons are learned. Giorgia Meloni was speaking at the second Italy Africa summit, the first on the continent. And to tell us more, I'm joined now by Patricia Rodriguez, who's in Nairobi and is director at Control Risks. Good morning, Patricia.
- [17:44]
Patricia Rodriguez
Good morning.
- [17:44]
Emma Nelson
Good to have you with us. So just explain to us the significance of Italy and Africa having their own summit, almost overlapping or slightly overlapping with the African Union summit.
- [17:58]
Patricia Rodriguez
Yes, it's an interesting timing for an Italy Africa summit, especially in Addis Ababa, as you said, quite close to the AU summit. But it's really a push by Giorgio Meloni, who is looking to deepen partnerships with African countries. So under the Matei Plan, which was Signed off in 2024, Italy has committed $5 billion, sorry, euros, to do more commercial partnerships with African countries across some social sectors, but also with a huge focus on energy and infrastructure.
- [18:31]
Emma Nelson
Yes, just tell us a little bit more about the purpose of the Mate Plan. It was, it's a, as you say, it's a couple of years old. And this is very much a drive by Italy to be more, dare we say it, more independent, striking out by itself on the international stage when it comes to forging ties.
- [18:51]
Patricia Rodriguez
Absolutely. There is very much a geopolitical play there. So for the longest time, a lot of Italy's engagement with the continent has primarily been through the eu. But with Meloni, now we're seeing a more, I want to say, assertive Italy on the continent. And this Mattei plan forms the core of that. There's a couple of points maybe to draw out there on why the plan is being implemented. Now, on one hand, there is the question around energy security. A lot of the anxiety with the Russia Ukraine conflict has seen European countries look to Africa potentially as sources of energy. So there's a huge focus on the partnerships with the North African countries in particular, which are centered around exporting gas, for example. And then secondly is one of the main reasons why this plan is being implemented is to tackle that thorny issue of migration. The theory there being that if there's more investment in, I would say, the source countries of immigrants coming to Europe, then there's potentially less incentive for immigration and irregular immigration at that.
- [20:01]
Emma Nelson
And this is something that Giorgia Meloni certainly in the past has done, reaching out and striking deals with African nations to ensure that immigration is something that she feels that Italians can handle and the European Union as a whole can handle. Is there a sense that Maloney is actually the driving force behind it? An awful lot of this, often for domestic political reasons.
- [20:26]
Patricia Rodriguez
I would say it's 50, 50. There is very much that domestic push, the questions around irregular migration. But there is also this desire to be seen as an independent, separate geopolitical player by Meloni herself. So it's a combination of both. And then I guess the Africa side of it as well is there's this pragmatism among African countries on who they engage with. So if it's one more geopolitical player pledging investment on the continent, you would be hard pressed to find an African leader who's going to turn that down.
- [21:01]
Emma Nelson
And we also have, as well as the pull of Italy, we have the push of the United States. Donald Trump did not go to the African Union meeting this weekend. It was noticed. And also we have seen cuts to foreign aid, an overhaul of trade policy, tariffs becoming a very destabilizing element there. And again, we can talk about immigration as well. The amount of impact that the Trump administration has had not just in one country but right across the continent cannot be underestimated, can it?
- [21:38]
Patricia Rodriguez
Not at all. Especially on the social side of things. You know, the dismantling of USAID in particular has been quite harmful in ways that were, I would say, unexpected by African countries. I think a lot of African countries had seen in general that the kind of appetite for development financing was declining. But the abrupt way in which the Trump administration has pulled back on its aid commitments, for example, I think was pretty startling. Having said that, we are starting to see this commercialization of the social side of things. So the U.S. for example, has signed, I think it's four different health agreements which are very much commercial with countries across East Africa and they're to the tune of 1.5 billion each. But they do involve African countries themselves committing some of the financing for these sorts of deals. So it's really a transition away from that aid relationship and more towards commercial partnerships.
- [22:42]
Emma Nelson
Patricia Rodriguez on the line from Nairobi. Patricia is director of Control Risks. Thank you so much for joining us on Monocle Radio. Still to come, we head to Milan where our contributing editor Andrew Muller will be talking to us about what's coming up on Monocle in Milan this week. So stay tuned.
- [23:02]
UBS Announcer
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
- [23:38]
Emma Nelson
7:23 here in London. Let's continue with today's newspapers. Joining me is a journalist and communications consultant, Simon Brooke. Good morning, Simon.
- [23:45]
Yossi Meckelberg
Good morning.
- [23:46]
Emma Nelson
How was your weekend? And how's the week looking?
- [23:48]
Simon Brooke
Yeah, okay, thank you.
- [23:49]
Yossi Meckelberg
Yes.
- [23:49]
Simon Brooke
Despite the miserable weather here in London.
- [23:51]
Emma Nelson
There was about 20 minutes of sunshine on Saturday.
- [23:53]
Simon Brooke
I don't know, because I was in Bruges, actually. A city I've never been to before, but highly recommended. Absolutely beautiful, isn't it? Yes, yes.
- [24:01]
Emma Nelson
What is everybody doing?
- [24:02]
Simon Brooke
Go to Bruges, cheer yourself up in Bruges.
- [24:05]
Emma Nelson
Were you having fun?
- [24:05]
Simon Brooke
I was, yeah. Lovely. It was really nice. A week of awesome days of work in Brussels and then a bit of rest and relaxation in Bruges as a reward.
- [24:14]
Emma Nelson
It's the bolt on, that's the thing that we all need to do. Don't tell anybody. Ladies and gentlemen, when you do a foreign trip, it's quite nice to just stick an extra 24 hours on.
- [24:23]
Simon Brooke
You deserve it.
- [24:24]
Emma Nelson
Absolutely. Otherwise, there's no point in going. Right, let's talk about the papers. An astonishing story in the front page of the FT this morning. Wagner's group, the. Basically the brutal mercenaries who sort of eviscerate anything that they go near, no longer in Ukraine, went to Africa, but now there is evidence, according to the Financial Times, that they are targeting NATO countries.
- [24:50]
Simon Brooke
Yeah, exactly. So an exclusive this morning in the Financial Times says that recruiters and propagandists who previously worked for the Wagner group have emerged as what is described as a main conduit for Kremlin organized sabotage attacks in Europe. So instead of, as you say, recruiting soldiers for the front line in Ukraine, they're looking for what are described as economically vulnerable Europeans to carry out these acts. The Russian military intelligence agency, the gru, and the domestic intelligence agency, the fsb, have both become, according to the Financial Times source, highly active in seeking to recruit what are described as disposable agents in Europe. And these people have been tasked by Wagner operatives to do everything from carry out arson attacks on politicians cars to could be a warehouse containing aid for Ukraine. And these are people, vulnerable people who are perhaps struggling financially, who live at the margins, who don't feel that life has been good to them. But by recruiting these people, the piece points out that it allows these Russian agencies to sort of keep their distance. Apparently there's at least two links in the chain away from them. And the piece has an example, for instance, of a young British man who was convicted for setting fire to a warehouse and he'd recruited, in turn, four more young men. Probably the only bit of good news you might extract from this piece is the fact that these are young, vulnerable people with very little experience. According to the ft, What Russian spy chiefs gain in scale and cost by using these proxies to recruit amateur saboteurs. They lose in competence and secrecy, which is, well, it's some compensation, effectively.
- [26:37]
Emma Nelson
Meaning that if you are recruiting people at the margins of life, that their ability possibly for discretion is, is limited. They are more likely to talk about it and indeed capability, because the, the, the, the attacks that we are talking about here are not sophisticated cyber attacks. This is literally just blowing up buildings or setting fire to things. This is, this is basic thuggery.
- [26:59]
Simon Brooke
Exactly. And who cares if they get caught as far as the Russian authorities are concerned? And if anything, I think it probably helps for a sort of propaganda angle, if you like. If they are caught and it is shown that they are doing the biddings of these Russian agencies, then it just helps to give the impression to us Western audiences that Russia is carrying out this kind of warfare.
- [27:22]
Emma Nelson
Okay, let's move to China. Another very, very good article. There's some really good journalism around. It is rather encouraging. It puts a spring in our step. This is again going to. We've been to Russia, now we're going to China. And we have the continued problem that Xi Jinping experiences, which is it he needs to keep those close to him or loyal. And yet he has continued purges. This is a focus on the big long reading in the New York Times about Xi's continued purge of the military.
- [27:56]
Simon Brooke
Yeah. So an analysis by one of the New York Times China writers looking, as you say, at this purge and I suppose really suggesting that this action has echoes of Mao Zedong's regular and ruthless clear outs of generals and senior advisors. The New York Times reminds us that Xi made a speech referencing Zhang and then three weeks later effectively purged the military's top commander, General Zhang Jiaowi, who has since been seen, who was seen up to that time as a close confidant. And the New York Times points out that like Mao Xi is pursuing a kind of spiritual renewal of the party and the military in what's described as a sort of self revolution. You could also say that the revolution eats its children, doesn't it? It's a similar sort of process, I suppose. And we're reminded that sort of every sort of three years or something, President Xi has essentially ousted. Sorry. Over the last three years, President Xi has essentially ousted five of the six generals in China's top military body, the Central Military Commission. So I suppose the question is, is this a sign of strength or of weakness, of sort of paranoia? And also I suppose it begs the question, what Happens if you remove all these people with experience, with knowledge, who have the sort of stature, if you like, to challenge you, then where does that leave you?
- [29:21]
Emma Nelson
Well, you have that state, I think you've described it as a state of perpetual cleansing, which means that those who are kept next to you are kept.
- [29:29]
Simon Brooke
On their toes, which is probably a good thing if you're a dictator. But as I say, on the other hand, if there isn't anybody who can say, actually, that probably isn't a good idea, you ought to think about this instead. You know that. That can make you vulnerable, can't it?
- [29:42]
Emma Nelson
Finally, let's have a look at. I'm quite disappointed because normally you bring in a Times story which has a poke at the French. What we have instead. Sorry, Simon. To say next time, please, I'm sure I'll find one. Thank you. If you wouldn't mind. But what you have done is actually shown a very, very, very sad story about Italy's Love Arch, the Torre Santandrea in. I think it's in Puglia, isn't it?
- [30:06]
Yossi Meckelberg
It is.
- [30:06]
Emma Nelson
It is so beloved. It has that. Yeah. It is a beautiful piece of geological time.
- [30:14]
Simon Brooke
It is. Or it was. Anyway. This is sort of a sad story, I have to say, as somebody who is not a great fan of Valentine's Day. I'm sorry. The darker side of my humor found this quite funny. Yes. But this was quite broken.
- [30:27]
Emma Nelson
I was quite heartbroken.
- [30:28]
Yossi Meckelberg
It.
- [30:29]
Simon Brooke
Well, it's sad for romantic reasons and geological reasons, if you like, and probably sustainability or what's, you know, climate change reasons that the Torre. Exactly. Torre Santandrea in this beautiful part of Puglia has collapsed. Yeah. It's a rock formation surrounded by crystal clear waters, according to the Daily Telegraph, and it's attracted visitors to the beach of the Melanduno coast. Romantic visitors who have their photograph taken there. It's a devastating blow to the heart, says Maurizio Cisternino, who's mayor of Melandunio. One of the most famous tourist attractions on our coast in Italy is disappearing. So, I don't know. I mean. Yeah, perhaps get there as soon as you can before it all completely collapses.
- [31:12]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. And go to Capri instead and join the queue of the Love Boat. What I didn't realize about what's it called, the Arch of Love, is that the story behind it is that it was called the Love Arch because I was a young couple who were caught in a sudden, violent tide while sharing a kiss. This is not funny.
- [31:27]
Simon Brooke
I said sudden, violent. Oh, tide. I thought it might be something else they were caught at. But, yeah, sorry, too early.
- [31:33]
Emma Nelson
Yes, far too early. While sharing a kiss under the bridge and died because they were swept out to sea. But anybody who had been swimming through the arch together and who shared a kiss, well. Oh, no, they didn't even. You don't even need to have a quick kiss. If you can get. If you can swim through the arch together, you have an unbreakable bond of love. Shame that the arch itself wasn't unbreakable.
- [31:53]
Simon Brooke
They'll have to just rebuild it, won't they?
- [31:54]
Emma Nelson
They will do. And if it's the Italians, I'll probably do it in the shape of Giorgio Maloney. Though there's that angel in the Roman church.
- [32:01]
Patricia Rodriguez
Why not?
- [32:02]
Emma Nelson
Sim Brooke, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist. Now here's a look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. The man accused of carrying out the Bondi beach shootings, Navid Akram, has appeared via video link at a Sydney magistrates court for the first time. He faces 59 charges over the killings at a Jewish celebration at the Sydney beach just over two months ago ago. Israel's prime minister has demanded the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran as part of any deal on Tehran's nuclear program. Benjamin Netanyahu was speaking as Iran's foreign minister traveled to Switzerland for the latest round of indirect talks with the United States. And the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un has presided over the completion ceremony of a newly built set of apartments for the bereaved families of soldiers killed in military operations abroad. South Korean intelligence estimates that 6,000 North Koreas have now been killed or injured fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine. And those are the headlines on the Globalist. It's what, 2:32am in Havana. And Cuba has postponed its annual cigar festival until further notice, the latest casualty of the crisis caused by a U.S. oil blockade. The festival usually brings in millions of dollars for Cuba's communist government. It is a sign perhaps that there is a longer and deeper crisis just about to emerge. To tell us more, I'm joined by Yossi Meckelburg, senior consulting fellow at the Middle east and North Africa Program at Chatham House. But Yossi, you are a Cuba expert as well?
- [33:43]
Yossi Meckelberg
Well, I did my earlier did a lot of research, visited many times. Cuba dealing compelling revolutions. And Cuba was one of my favorite places to go.
- [33:53]
Emma Nelson
Excellent. Your favorite revolutions. I'd love to read that paper. Thank you so much for talking to us about what's happening in Cuba. I mean, I just meant to mentioned the fact that the postponement of the annual cigar festival, it's one of those things which is a very easily accessible example for the rest of us of a much more complicated crisis that we see unfolding.
- [34:13]
Yossi Meckelberg
Absolutely. I mean, in a way, it epitomizes how difficult is it, the situation, and it's getting worse with sources of oil. There are power cuts up to 18 hours every day, which you just can imagine what it does, you know, in private lives, but also in hospitals, schools and the rest. And a difficult situation was made even worse with what happened in Venezuela. At the beginning of January, Venezuela supplied 35,000 barrels of oil every day to Cuba. And the close relations since the times of Chavez in Cuba, well documented. And we saw actually that 32 Cubans were killed during the American snatching off, if you can put it off, Maduro. But to make things worse, on 29 January, President Trump signed an executive order that puts tariffs on any other country that will supply oil to Cuba. And this makes sense, really thinks almost impossible.
- [35:23]
Emma Nelson
And this is something that has already, as soon as, I think Mexico pulled back from sending oil a couple of weeks ago, and everybody realized that two things were happening here. Firstly, countries were having to decide whether they were going to side with Trump or Cuba. But secondly, the effect on Cuba, as you described, there would be a humanitarian crisis. That would be the thing that precipitated regime change. There would be no need to go in and grab and do a sort of do a Maduro grab. You it actually Cuba could collapse itself.
- [35:57]
Yossi Meckelberg
Yeah. First we have to remember there are sanctions or blockades since 1960 and trying to topple first the Castro regimes, you know, Fidler, and then, and then Raul. So this is an ongoing issue. But what they are trying now to do is again, instead of sending troops for regime change, is to starve, you know, the country of oil and in hope that people will go to the street and topple the regime. But, you know, we've seen along the years that this is a very resilient, resilient government. You know, you go back as far as the Bay of pigs of 1961 and then the Cuban missile crisis the following year, and in normal attempts to kill Fidel Castro. But this is probably one since the collapse of the Soviet Union that supported Cuba during the Cold War, since the collapse in 1990, this is the worst probably crisis in Cuba. And we see that, you know, there are rumors of some negotiations in Mexico between the son of Raul Castro, Alejandro Castro Espin, and some officials the question, what it's all about, is it about transition? Is it opening the economy? So the question is what they're ready, what kind of the concessions that can be made. But what we see right now, you see, we talk about American regime change. What they do is regime management because they didn't change actually the regime in Venezuela, the deputy Maduro's deputy is still there. Maybe there is kind of the idea what they are trying to do in Cuba.
- [37:40]
Emma Nelson
And it does beg the question about what the level of the United States influence in Latin America could be. If this goes the way people believe it may do that. If you have, as you say, no regime change in Venezuela, but very much an American presence there, realigning, dare we say, the access to oil, et cetera, were you to have that and then something happen in Cuba which would require a constant presence of the United States, how would that recalibrate the region?
- [38:10]
Yossi Meckelberg
I think first of all, you know, the Trump administration is quite open that, you know, Almost back to 1823 in the Monroe Doctrine, the Western hemisphere in control basically of the United States. I think Cuba is a different, it's a different case. I said many times to people in the State Department, you know, it's not a foreign policy, it's an obsession. Because there is an obsession. They try to buy in the history twice Cuba in 1898, they actually invaded Cuba, the Platt Amendment and the rest. So they always thought that Cuba needs to gravitate towards the United States. And there is another thing is many of the exiles live in Florida and they hate the regime in Cuba and Florida is so significant for winning election in the United States. So all of this made this Cuban situation even worse. But I don't think the United States is making any friends in Latin America by this kind of behavior.
- [39:09]
Emma Nelson
Yossi Meckelberg, Senior consulting fellow at Chatham House thank you so much for joining me in the studio. You're listening to Monocle Radio. 1538 in Taipei. 7:38am here in London. Taiwan and a United States states have signed a new trade agreement. US tariffs on Taiwanese goods will be reduced from 20% to 15% and the deal places Taiwan on a par with Japan and the eu. Taiwan in return will remove tariffs on certain US Products. Brian here is the founding editor of New Bloom magazine and joins me on the line from Taipei. Good afternoon to you, Brian.
- [39:53]
Brian
Thank you for having me talking.
- [39:54]
Emma Nelson
Just explain to us more details about what was agreed there, please.
- [39:59]
Brian
Absolutely. So trade talks between the US And Taiwan have been ongoing for quite some time. For example, there was a round of recalls in Taiwan targeting the opposition KMT last year. And even during that time there's talk, well, there may be soon a trade deal which the ruling party of the DPP would use as a coup, flaming it as a success in that sense. But then this will open some industries to the U.S. but then Taiwan, the government claims that it will be protected. Mostly concerns about technology though. For example, would this potentially hollow out Taiwan's key semi dugger industry to US influence?
- [40:36]
Emma Nelson
So explain to us a little bit about what this deal, this trade deal signifies for Taiwan. Does this open up trade in a way that we haven't seen before or are we just looking something which is a continuation of sort of surety when it comes to relationship with what Washington.
- [40:56]
Brian
When it comes to a lot of the other pass points of controversy, for example, opening Taiwan to certain meat products from the U.S. the government has stressed the impact will be limited, but there are still some concerns from farmers, for example, and other vulnerable groups. Taiwan's agriculture industry in particular saw shocks in the past two decades when Taiwan joined the World Trade Organization, for example. But then regarding technology, the trade deal is predicated on that Taiwan has substantial investments in the US under the Trump administration. And I think fears in Taiwan are that this could lead to loss of the so called silicon shield. The fact that Taiwan produces more than 60% of global semiconductor supply and over 90% of advanced ships tell us a.
- [41:36]
Emma Nelson
Little bit about how this affects the relationship with China. It is something which is obviously key to this and something where Taiwan often finds itself pushed and pulled in different directions.
- [41:47]
Brian
Directions, absolutely. And so the Taiwanese government often tries to cement stronger trade tiles with potential allies against China to increase the political incentive for such allies defense of Taiwan from Chinese threats. But in this case, I think China is less likely to react to a trade deal. They would react much more to the arms sales that have occurred in a similar timeframe between the US and Taiwan.
- [42:11]
Emma Nelson
And explain a little bit more about what this pushes because I think the President over the weekend has said that it needs to strengthen the island's defenses in order to ensure its security. So this trade deal with the United States then pushes us into the area of long term defense strategy. What does this trade deal do for the military and security of Taiwan?
- [42:36]
Brian
Right. And so such comments by President Lai of Taiwan Taiwan is in the context of the fact the kmt, the opposition party which is historically more pro unification, has really tried to undercut stronger ties with the US Whether that is in terms of arms sales, for example, or this trade agreement. And so the defense budget, the US has called for Taiwan's defense budget to be raised, and this was voted down over 10 times by the KMT with regards to this new trade deal. The KMT also says that while this potentially dangerous, again because of these technology concerns and effects on key industries like agriculture. And so there's a need to really vet disagreement carefully. And so the KMT may also take a stance against this. And this is why Lai is emphasizing the need to pass this to shore up ties with the US At a time of much uncertainty about US Power under Donald Trump.
- [43:24]
Emma Nelson
And how much does this actually shore up President Lai's political situation? Certainty as well.
- [43:31]
Brian
I think it's definitely seen as accomplishment for him. But if there are impacts on these sectors that are often very vocal when they do take economic hits, in particular, Taiwan's farming industry is very politically influential, then that could still hurt him. I think if it adds this perception the US Is really trying to exploit Taiwan, has no actual interest in Taiwan's defense, but just wants to seal the semiconductor industry and get out and win what economic and advantages it can without investing in Taiwan's defense, then that would hurt Lai. But I think on the whole, it would still be to his credit. If this goes through and this is.
- [44:04]
Emma Nelson
All happening on the eve of Lunar New Year in Taiwan, how does that change things?
- [44:11]
Brian
Well, I think things are pretty quiet right now. And so the social reaction, I think, is not as strong as expected. But I think particularly once the lunar year ends and narratives cement, we'll see what occurs. There have been some news developments over this lunar year holiday, though. For example? For example, with U.S. elected representatives issuing a letter to Taiwan's opposition saying to stop halting the defense budget, the two politicians who are the president and vice president of the legislature from the kmt, the opposition issue, a statement saying they're not against defense. Well, this might actually illustrate a weakening of their stance against the defense budget and the fact they voted down so many times.
- [44:47]
Emma Nelson
Brian, hi in Taipei. Thank you so much for joining. Joining us on Monocle Radio, Brian is the founding editor of New Bloom magazine. Stay tuned to the globalist.
- [44:59]
UBS Announcer
Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft.
- [45:35]
Emma Nelson
A glance now at the latest business news to help us through It I'm joined now by Vicky Price, economist and former joint head of the UK Government Government's economic Service. Good morning Vicky, how are you?
- [45:45]
Vicky Price
Good morning. I'm fine. You?
- [45:46]
Emma Nelson
Good to have you with us. Tell us about Japan's economy because we had recently the re election of the Prime Minister in an absolute sort of totally confident and buoyant majority. Yet the economy is not growing at the same speed that people would like it to.
- [46:05]
Vicky Price
No. In fact if you look at what's happened over the last year in 2025, well they managed 1% growth. Growth which wasn't bad in fact because Japan has really not been growing very fast at all over the last few years. But there had been expectations that there was a pickup in activity. And yet the fourth quarter data that just came out was pretty disappointing and basically suggests that there was hardly any growth. Well annualized 0.4%. It means that in the quarter just 0.1% a lot of it due to lack of of exports. If you look at exports and imports more or less neutral, which is not very good for Japan if they're looking for ways to expand in the future. Of course the tariff situation has affected them quite considerably. Things are looking a little bit better now because of some reductions that have been made from the US but nevertheless that has been an issue. And also the fact that real wages are still negative in terms of their rate of growth because inflation has picked up a little bit. Now of course we shouldn't get too excited when you look at it from other countries angles really because inflation is at 1.5% core, just over 2% which is pretty within, you know, what you loads and loads of other central bankers would love to see happen. But nevertheless wages are growing more slowly which really means that consumer spending is subdued. So there is a lot of concern. So what the new Japanese head Prime Minister is thinking of doing is a few things. I mean first of all take away or suspend a consumer sales tax that was going to be imposed which of course is affecting people's willingness to go out and spend because it makes things more expensive and then also so a fiscal expansion. So spend more and stimulate the economy. So let's see how far they can go with that given that they already have huge borrowing debt to GDP ratio. Japan is over 200%, about 250%. So one of the highest that we see in the Western world.
- [48:12]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. I mean you mentioned the fiscal loosening which is something that Sanae Takechi has been very, very big on in terms of the way that she wants to inject fresh energy into the Japanese. Given the figures that we're getting out today, where we have GDP rising by 0.2%, consumption down, slow growth, stubborn inflation, everything that you've just mentioned. If you're Sanae Takechi sitting in your office this afternoon, what do you do now?
- [48:43]
Vicky Price
Well, with some difficulty, that's why she's focused on perhaps reducing some of the tax elements of what was being planned before. And of course you can reduce taxes even more. There is an interesting thing about Japan as well that over the years, if you observe it, demands for higher wages seem to be quite subdued. So it seems to be in the culture perhaps, but obviously, you know, seeing ways in which real incomes can start increasing and therefore consumption can increase has to be a way forward. And of course, again, taxation is at the heart of it. Just spending lots of money supporting particular sectors is a little bit more difficult. I mean, Japan has been pretty competitive generally. The other one has to do with interest rates, which of course she doesn't necessarily control directly. They have been going up, they went up again mainly to support a yen that was weakening in December, but they're still only at 0.75%, which is really rather low. Nevertheless, it seems to be making a difference and it certainly makes a difference in terms of people's sort of psyche, whether they really want to go out and all borrow and spend, which the Japanese tend to generally not do. And I think it's a bit more than just throwing a bit more money in the economy that's going to solve the problem that Japan has had now.
- [49:56]
Emma Nelson
For quite some time now let's look at a fundamental shift in European Union policy. Since it came together in its various iterations, the EU has absolutely been wedded to the idea that members numbers move as one economically. This is now changing because people have talked about the idea of a two tier Europe economically for a long time and Europe has resisted it. That's changing.
- [50:24]
Vicky Price
Yes. Now it's not that necessarily. There's been a fundamental change and now it's perfectly accepted. It's just that a number of countries have decided that they need to get together in order to push forward with at least one aspect of what Draghi, Mario Draghi has said in his big competitiveness report that came out over a year ago on how to get Europe to become more resistant, if you like, and resilient to pressures that are coming from the US and China. And one of the ways of doing that is to complete this single market in finance. I, I mean mainly we're talking about the capital markets, it's what they call the savings and Investment union. So a number of countries have decided to get together anyway slightly unofficially in order to see how they can push this forward because they can't actually get all that agreed across all the countries that are members of the eu but at least the bigger ones right and center can do that and that's what's going on. And I think perhaps there is a way forward in that thought that it could happen in other areas too. Defence is one of the areas as well. And if we listen to what von der Leyen had said and also in a way Christine Lagarde when the speeches were made and press releases were issued at the security conference in Munich, which is just finishing, what you saw was that there was, there is a hint that perhaps there could also be agreement in various areas which are not unanimous but they could be taken by just a few countries and pushed forward because of course on the defence side in particular, it's an area where Europe needs to spend more and has already unveiled a number of ways in which it intends to do so, even though there is resistance from some countries in terms of the way forward. So there is a already I think the beginning of a two speed Europe being a little bit more acceptable. It hasn't been legitimized necessarily and it could cause all sorts of problems for some countries that find themselves excluded. But the fact that Europe needs to get closer together and create a big capital market, there is no doubt that that's a very substantial element of improving competitiveness.
- [52:41]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. Unfortunately we've got about 30 seconds to do this. But Vicki, if this does not happen, what happens to the competitiveness of Europe?
- [52:48]
Vicky Price
Well then it's really not going to improve particularly and they're going to have to think again, I'm afraid.
- [52:54]
Emma Nelson
Vicky Price, economist, thank you so much for joining us to bring us the business news. You're listening to the Globalist. We're live on Monocle Radio. Now week two of our coverage of the Winter Olympics begins today. Last week we had Ed Stocker in the hot seat in Allianz Tower. Today Andrew Muller is coming to us from the Allianz Sky Lounge. Good morning, Andrew.
- [53:20]
Andrew Muller
Good morning, Emma.
- [53:21]
Emma Nelson
How's it looking?
- [53:23]
Andrew Muller
It looks great. There's, it's, it's a beautiful space. It's the entire top floor, I think of the 47th floor. There is a, there is a large model of what I think to my inexpert eye is a reindeer for some reason we have a couple of Iterations of the Olympic torch. We have a simulated roaring open fire. Yeah, it's glorious up here. And I will be welcoming our first guests of week two in a little over an hour from now.
- [53:49]
Emma Nelson
Talk us through the simulated roaring open fire.
- [53:53]
Andrew Muller
It is exactly that. It's very big. It's an impressively sized simulated roaring fire.
- [53:59]
Emma Nelson
Is it just a little more. Is it on a television screen or is it actually having a crack at making us think it's the real deal?
- [54:07]
Andrew Muller
Well, I hope it's on a television screen, otherwise we may need to evacuate very shortly.
- [54:11]
Emma Nelson
Does it actually give out genuine heat?
- [54:12]
Patricia Rodriguez
Heat?
- [54:13]
Andrew Muller
I'm not standing close enough to it to be able to tell you.
- [54:16]
Yossi Meckelberg
I rather doubt it.
- [54:17]
Emma Nelson
Right, so. So basically, just. Let's just rewind a little bit of Andrew Muller's journeys in the last couple of days. You must not even know where you are or what you're there for anymore, because you were in Munich when?
- [54:29]
Andrew Muller
Yesterday, as recently as yesterday morning. All I can tell you with any certainty right now is that I am in a European city that begins with the letter M. Excellent. And I'm pretty sure, sure it's Milan.
- [54:40]
Emma Nelson
Though, with people of a highly competitive nature at the top of their game globally.
- [54:45]
Andrew Muller
Exactly that.
- [54:46]
Emma Nelson
How was Munich, really?
- [54:48]
Andrew Muller
Well, it's really good fun. Seems like the wrong phrase. I mean, that's the fourth year in a row we've gone to the Munich Security Conference as the foreign desk. And of all the conferences we attend and forums we attend in a given year, I think it is by some margin the most complete nuts, because they. They do insist on holding it in the same, you know, inner Munich hotel they've held it in since the 1950s. It has, to be honest, logistically long since outgrown the venue. But you do find yourself, when you get into the hotel, in the middle of just this absolutely astonishing scrum of earth's most powerful people, many of whom are surrounded by extremely large men with earpieces who I can tell you for a fact, will not ask you nicely to get out of the way if they are part of Ursula von der Leyen's flying wedge. That is a. That is a moment from direct experience.
- [55:41]
Emma Nelson
Well, let's. Let's talk a little bit more about with the Monocle in Milan this week. Now, I know for a fact of your deep, deep love for winter sports and the sheer bonkersness of how dangerous these things are. And I know you find that desperately thrilling. It is so nice to know that you're actually going to a place that you actually Genuinely adore and get excited to excited about.
- [56:02]
Andrew Muller
No, I am really looking forward to it. I'm hoping we will get to see at least some of the events which are occurring here in Milan itself. I don't think we're going to have time between shows to do the. The schlep out to the ski fields. But yeah, I mean, I wrote a piece about this which went up on our website quite recently. I do genuinely, absolutely sincerely believe the Winter Olympics to be in every way superior to the Summer Games. And it is, it is just largely because not just of the. The obvious skill of these participants, but they're just absolutely astonishing courage bordering on outright recklessness. Every time I watch any event in the Winter Olympics from, well, any of them really, even watching something you might think of as somewhat genteel and delicate, like figure skating, I. I like to think about how many bones of my own I would break if I attempted even the most simple of those maneuvers. And it does put it in interesting perspective.
- [56:58]
Emma Nelson
It's literally standing up straight that takes the hardest jump. What I really want to know, and I was hoping whether you could help us find out this time around, is what was it? What is it that goes through an athlete's head when they see a tea tray and an ice rink and they think, I want to strap myself onto that and go at 115km an hour? It's that moment when people turn from normal people into people who are just determined to do something absolutely wildly dangerous.
- [57:25]
Andrew Muller
I mean, I can kind of see the appeal of that because the only actually properly dangerous winter sport in which I've ever actually participated was I have ridden the skeleton run, the Cresta Run at San Moritz. I'm sure I did it at about a third of the speed that anybody actually competent and not in fear of their life would do it. But. But what actually interests me is not so much that, that moment, interesting though it is when you to decide, yes, I'm going to make this my life, is that moment at which you realize, hang on, I'm actually really good at this. And I, I do hope to be able to have that conversation with a couple of past or present participants this week.
- [58:01]
Emma Nelson
Who've we got on there? We've got about 30 seconds. Andrew, who have you got on the. On the to do list?
- [58:07]
Andrew Muller
We have a lot on the to do list. Probably the highlight among many of the show coming up a bit over an hour from now is Christophe Doobie. He's the executive director of the Olympic Games. He is the person who makes sure Everything gets built that everything runs smoothly and then everything gets dismantled. So he is a logistician of, of considerable capacities. And I look, I'm actually astonished he's found the time for us in the middle of this. But yeah, looking forward to hearing how it all works.
- [58:33]
Emma Nelson
Yes, he does create time because I think he came to Paris as well, to the previous Olympics.
- [58:37]
Andrew Muller
I believe he did. So clearly we didn't upset him last time.
- [58:40]
Emma Nelson
Except. Excellent. Well, that was me last time. So let's see if we can keep it going. Andrew Muller, thank you so much for joining us on the line from the Allianz skyline. Andrew, just in two seconds, tell us when you're on and how often we're going to be hearing from you this week.
- [58:55]
Andrew Muller
Every day at 10am local, which will be 9am London.
- [58:59]
Emma Nelson
Brilliant. Thank you for that. That was Andrew Muller. He's on air in an hour. Ladies and gentlemen, stay tuned. It's going to be fun because that's all the time we have for today. Today's program, the warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers Hassan Anderson, Chris Chermak and Ryuma Takahashi. Our researcher was Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager was Mariella Bevan. After the headlines. More music on the way. Monocle in Milan, as we have just mentioned, is live at 9am London time, 10am if you are in the Italian city, the briefing's live at midday here in London. The globalist is back at the same time tomorrow for now from me, Emma Nelson. Goodbye. Thanks for listening. Have a great week.
- [59:40]
UBS Announcer
With ubs. You have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day day knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.