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The Globalist
Nato’s defence ministers meet as the European Commission prepares to unveil its defence roadmap
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UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 16th October 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U Live from London. This is the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program.
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Michel Rose
Coming up, what you need to make sure that when it comes to anti.
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Emma Nelson
Drone technology, we have what we have in place, what we need to have.
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Michel Rose
In place so that we can keep our skies safe.
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Emma Nelson
NATO's Mark Rutter stresses the importance of defending European airspace. Well, today the European European Union sets out its plan for a broader, better military strategy. We'll explore what could be in the so called defence map. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, we examine whether France's prime minister has done enough to fend off not one, but two no confidence votes in the country's parliament. Plus will heal calls for the U.S. japan and South Korea to deepen their military ties.
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James Atkinson
And up to 2030, about US$1.3 trillion will be invested in Vision 2030 infrastructure and that creates hundreds of thousand thousands of direct and indirect jobs, how Saudi.
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Emma Nelson
Arabia is planning for its next generation workforce and homes. All that plus the papers and why we should all be mining for asteroids. That's all coming up on THE Globalist. Live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in the news today. Hamas has handed the remains of two more hostages back to Israel, but has warned it has returned all the bodies it can reach without specialist equipment. Equipment. The U.S. defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned Moscow that the United States and its allies will impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression if the war in Ukraine doesn't come to an end. And France's highest court has rejected an appeal by the far right leader Marine Le Pen against her conviction for misusing party funds. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, for years, the European Union has faced a problem when it comes to defence. A formal shared strategy and any bespoke military force is out of the question. But the current challenges the bloc faces are done so as a whole. Take for example, the drone incursions made over Estonia Germany and Poland last month. So later today, the EU Commission sits down to try to navigate a workaround and to explain all, I'm joined in the studio by Dr. Marion Messmer, who's a Senior Research Fellow in International Security at Chatham House. A very good morning to you, Marion.
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Dr. Marion Messmer
Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
Good to have you with us. So the workaround is called the Defense Roadmap. What's in it?
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Dr. Marion Messmer
The Defence Roadmap is the, I think, third document this year that the European Union has launched to try and navigate some of these defence challenges. And what I think is really interesting is that for the first time in the history of their joint existence, it seems like the EU and NATO are getting to a place where they can actually coexist in a useful way and share work rather than tread on each other's toes. And so one of the ways that they seem to be doing that is that the EU is very focused on trying to figure out where funding for some of these new investments is coming from. And that was set out in a document earlier in the year. It has also focused quite a lot on how to strengthen European industrial defence capabilities, because the EU does a lot on industrial strategy generally and it also has done a lot on the single market for defence industry. And now we are essentially looking at the next bit of the strategy which is very much focused on some of these drone incursions and air defence challenges that we've seen over, over the past few months.
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Emma Nelson
What exactly is the European Union trying to do here? I mean, you mentioned the fact that it is now trying to coexist with NATO in a youthful way. But the purpose of all this is what is to ensure that the borders of the European Union or NATO can be different, are kept safe from Russian aggression. Is it just as specific as that or is it a broader, longer term strategy which allows that part of the world to feel safe?
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Dr. Marion Messmer
It's a little broader than that. I mean, of course the hope is to deter against Russian aggression, but there are also several EU and NATO member states that are actually still very concerned about potential threats coming from the Mediterranean. And the defence initiatives that are in this roadmap could be useful for both. So the EU is essentially looking at coordinating member states to invest more in air defence. That's both traditional air defense when it comes to missiles or planes, but it's also the more modern types of air defense that could be useful and cost effective against drones attacks. And then they're also looking at a few really important but slightly more arcane investments that the EU and NATO haven't really done previously as a block when it comes to, for example, space security and making sure that satellites for European member states can stay safe.
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Emma Nelson
So is this the European Union's workaround, that it can invest in domestic industry without actually coming up with a defence strategy? Is that a successful way of going about things?
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Dr. Marion Messmer
Oh, I mean, that's a really good question. And I think whether it's successful, we won't be able to see for a little while long. But I think what is really interesting is that we are seeing that European defence industry is investing really heavily at the moment, and you can see European locations actually having grown in size. So I think that that is definitely a step in the right direction, because one of the really big challenges is that for a lot of these systems that we've been talking about, whether that's air defence, drone defence or space, Europe has traditionally been incredibly dependent on US industry to do a lot of the procurement, to do a lot of the manufacturing. And that's, of course, something that a lot of European states are not that comfortable with anymore. And I think this essentially gives us an opportunity to catch up and strengthen industry, which is going to be important for Europe, but also an investment in European security.
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Emma Nelson
Now, this sounds all very straightforward, but as we mentioned at the beginning of this, this is not because the idea of the European Union having any kind of shared strategy, any kind of bespoke shared military force, is very much out of the question, and for lots of reasons, not least because there are several countries just thinking of the likes of Germany, for one, which do not believe in that. Where do the political and the ideological problems sit?
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Dr. Marion Messmer
That's a good question. I mean, one thing we've seen already is that a few of the states have come out essentially welcoming the roadmap as such, but also expressing discomfort at how directive it seems, because some of the goals in there essentially tell states what they are meant to achieve by a certain timeline. So, for example, the European Commission wants to see most procurement, or at least 40% of procurement, to be done in a cooperative way. And so Sweden is on the record saying, for example, that they would prefer a framework that tries to capture outputs rather than telling states how they should go about it. Now, I can understand why the European Commission is trying to be so directive, because one of the challenges we have had is that some member states, like France, for example, prefer to invest in their own domestic defense industry above all else. And if you're actually trying to procure the best systems to keep Europe safe now, then it's not always possible to just do a domestic procurement. But at the same time, I can also understand why states feel that this is a bit heavy handed. Because let's say, for example, you are able to procure the best systems and you make it to 35% cooperative spending. That's already a huge improvement to where we are now. But you would fall short in this framework.
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Emma Nelson
And you also have the additional problem that if you are, for example, sitting in Portugal and sitting in Spain, defending the eastern flank of Europe is not necessarily your priority. And if you're in Italy or Greece, you're looking further south. Is there any how is that being worked given the fact that you will always have this regional problem as well when it comes to trying to get consensus from within?
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Dr. Marion Messmer
Yeah, that's completely true. I would caution a bit against seeing this too much as just focused on Russia. I mean, that's of course the impetus. A lot of these systems could also have utility against other threats. So NATO and the European Union generally don't have enough air defenses, whether that's looking at the southern border, whether that's looking at the eastern border. And not too long ago, everyone was incredibly worried about the potential of Iranian missiles being aimed at Europe. I mean, back in 2012, that was why NATO was investing in air defense in a big way for the first time. Right. And so I think while I understand that the member states that are more worried about southern threats are incredibly worried about this falling off the agenda and there not being a lot of attention paid to it anymore. If we strengthen air defense generally, then that means that we have air defense, whether a missile is potentially coming in from the south or from the east.
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Emma Nelson
And where does this lead next? Because if you have NATO who met yesterday and then you have the European Union actually joining ideas, not necessarily saying joining forces, but joining ideas, what is the next natural step after that?
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Dr. Marion Messmer
Yeah, also a really good question. I mean, I think what we are going to see more is some of these defense contracts coming through. And we were already seeing a bit of a surge in startups, defence startups in Europe, which is a really new thing for us. Right. One of the things that I think was already apparent yesterday at the NATO defence ministers meeting was that this resurgence of European defence industry is actually creating a bit of tension with the United States because the US traditionally is used to European allies buying quite a lot of equipment from them. But if there is an uncertainty about the relationship and if there's a desire to strengthen European industry, and you obviously haven't got an endless pot of money. Then at some point, European states will be in a place where they will be prioritizing spending on European systems over US systems.
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Emma Nelson
And finally, has Russia achieved now the thing that it never wanted to do, which was create a more unified Europe?
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Dr. Marion Messmer
Well, it certainly seems that way. Right? I mean, I've been thinking this ever since Sweden and Finland decided to leave behind their really long stance of neutrality and join NATO. There have been a lot of unintended consequences from this that definitely weren't part of Putin's strategy.
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Emma Nelson
Dr. Marion Messmer, senior Research Fellow in International Security at Chatham House, thank you so much for joining us on the globalist. 8:11am In Paris, which is where we head now, could France's Prime Minister have done enough to survive not just one, but two no confidence votes in the country's parliament? Later today, the reappointed French Prime Minister, Sebastian Le Cornu has put aside the most controversial part of a series of reforms that the President Emmanuel Macron believes are needed to solve the country's budget crisis. The state pension age is now to remain at 62, not 64. And with this move, Monsieur Lecournou hopes to gain the backing of the Socialists and keep the government in one piece for now, at least. Well, from Paris, I'm joined now by Michel Rose, who's senior political correspondent for Reuters. A very good morning to you, Michelle.
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Michel Rose
Morning.
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Emma Nelson
So just tell us about this pension climb down. This is a big step, isn't it?
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Michel Rose
Yes, it's a big step. I mean, it was one of the sacred cows of Macron and one he had promised never to back down on. So he made a major concessions, a major concession to stay in power. And just to clarify something, some effects of that reform had already been in place. So the age of pension, the minimum age, has increased already to 62 years and nine months, but it's now frozen to that level. So basically it won't go up to 64, but that's still billions of euros that France will have to find to compensate the hold that creates in the pension system.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. Just explain that a little bit further, because the pensions reform is something that the French just simply can never get over. It is that one thing that everybody stops short at doing it. But unless something fundamental changes, France's finances are in how big a mess?
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Michel Rose
It's in a big mess. And the thing is, when you compare France to its European neighbors these days, it's got the biggest budget deficit in the Eurozone. So there used to be a time where, you know, all the other Southern European countries were the basket cases of Europe, and France was sitting pretty with Germany. It's not longer the case. These countries in Southern Europe have done the reforms needed to get their economies back on track and fix their public finance finances. But France hasn't. Its debt is now rising to levels that are close to Italian ones, and investors are all paying attention. They're demanding a bigger premium to buy French debt. And basically, I mean, this, this pension reform came down is of course not helping the SIT situation in any way, and it's not clear where the money will come to fix that hole.
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Emma Nelson
And also, it does raise bigger questions about. You mentioned investors in France, why anybody would want to invest in a country with such political instability, with such a huge budget deficit, and no sense that it will be solved anytime soon.
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Michel Rose
Yes, it's all the irony of the situation at the moment, because the French political system was founded by de Gaulle. The modern French system was founded by de Gaulle in 1958 to give stability to the country. And it created a strong, powerful, centralized presidency and was supposed to create stable parliamentary majorities. But what we've had over the past year and a half is a very unstable situation because parliament is fragmented and France is not used to creating consensus and making compromises. And basically, you've got in parliament three ideologically opposed blocks, the left, the far right and the center. And none of them want to make compromises and help the other. And that means that France is basically paralyzed and probably for the rest of Macron's mandate the next 18 months. And of course, this is something investors abroad don't like. And the instability itself is probably worse than the hole in public finances and the budget deficit, because when you compare France to the UK or the us, I mean, its debt levels are not that much different. But basically, you've got a new prime minister every three weeks these days, and that is something investors don't like at all.
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Emma Nelson
So what we have now, though, is we're going into two votes of confidence in the country's parliament today. We've got Monsieur de Cornu, who has managed to somehow gain the backing of the Socialists because of this pension climb down. Will this be enough to save his neck?
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Michel Rose
Well, it will for now. He's. He's going to live to see another day. He's probably going to, yeah, survive these two motions in the House today. But the Socialists have been very clear. It's not because they helped him this time that they will prop him up for the rest of the year. And basically, they smelled weakness and they will try to extract more from him. So the question is, where does he stop? Is he going to give the socialists what they want on taxes for the wealthy, for example, the demands are going to become more and more pressing and it may be that at some point they decide to stop playing this game and the government falls.
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Emma Nelson
And when, if this happens, the next step is what are we looking? How likely is the possibility of snap elections before, let's say, the end of the year?
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Michel Rose
Michel it's now become, I mean, the possibility has become more remote that now that they've found it's compromise on pensions. But basically you can't have. If this government falls, the calls for a new election will become so much louder that Macron will have to give in. It's in his power to decide when a new election is held. But we came very close this time. When Le Corny resigned the first time, only 14 hours after unveiling his cabinet, we came very close to calling elections and people in Macron's entourage said it was really the last chance this time for an election. So, you know, it's still very possible that something happens in 2026 before the next presidential election. And I think all the part in the house or getting ready for that.
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Emma Nelson
Michel Rose, senior political correspondent for Reuters in Paris. Thank you so much for joining us on Monocle Radio. Still to come on today's program, I'm.
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Chris Chermak
Chris Chermak and I'll be talking about why a deal on lottery conscription collapsed in Germany and why the government would do better to focus on professionalizing the Bundeswehr.
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Emma Nelson
Stay with us on the globalist.
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UBS Narrator
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
It's what, 7:20am here in London? Time now to have a look at the newspapers. Joining me is Janelle Aldred, communications and media advisor. A very good morning to you, Janelle. It's your first trip into the Monocle studio. It is, but it is not the first time that we have been in a studio and we only just realized this when we saw each other 20 minutes ago. We go back 20 years. It's been two decades since we've seen each other.
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Janelle Aldred
I know, a long time.
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Emma Nelson
I was a newsreader yeah. You were the weather girl.
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Janelle Aldred
Yes.
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Emma Nelson
And you are still as glamorous as ever. And I now have forgotten to brush my hair, which is why I do radio now. It is an absolute pleasure to have you in the studio. What do you do now?
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Janelle Aldred
So, well, since I started, well, my degree was in journalism, so I went on to do newsreading. So I did that for the BBC, I did that for itv, I worked for ITN Productions, I did some documentary work, I ran a TV channel, so I've been doing quite a lot. But then I flipped to the other side and became a senior leader working in corporate and the third sector. And then after I'd done a bit of that, I thought, why don't I combine my skills and just advise people on media and comms?
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Emma Nelson
This woman ran a television channel. Ladies and gentlemen, can I ask you to put your journalistic hat back on for us and tell us what we've got in the papers?
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Janelle Aldred
So one of the things, and I'm taking up my notes, so one of the first stories that I was thinking about today was the Ukraine, Russia war later. So it's kind of ramped up. Donald Trump has never now achieved peace, or whatever we're calling it in the Middle East. And so now he's turning his sights back to Ukraine, Russia, which I think is interesting as he's gone on his peace tour, ending all the wars, as he's saying it. But he sent out his US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, and he was speaking at NATO and warned Moscow that the US and his allies will impose costs on Russia if they refuse to come to the table.
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Emma Nelson
Do we know what these costs are? Because it seems to be quite sort of an undefinable way.
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Janelle Aldred
He said, only in the way that the US can. So what that means exactly, nobody quite knows. But apparently what he's reported, what Trump is reported to be considering is providing long range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine.
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Emma Nelson
And this would allow Ukraine to strike.
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Janelle Aldred
Deeper into the Russian territory. So that's quite a bold thing that Trump's coming out with. And I think we've kind of seen him flip flop on this story. Between being tough on Ukraine and Zelensky, being tough on Russia and Putin, and he has, I wouldn't say he has a side, but if we're looking at those asides, he's been changing sides quite often in terms of what he thinks and where it's at, but he's also doing some economic strategies. So he claims that the pm Modi of Indian PM has pledged to stop buying Russian oil and framing that as a broader push to choke off Russia's energy reserves and their income from selling oil.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed, this is being reported in the FT this morning. Donald Trump says Narendra Modi pledged India with would stop buying Russian oil. Move could ease trade tensions between Washington and New Delhi, which had been in a stalemate since August. This is when there was that great betrayal of Narendra Modi of India, wasn't it? Narendra Modi believing that he and Donald Trump were marching shoulder to shoulder in step. And actually, no, at the end of the day, it was an economic decision that pushed them apart.
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Janelle Aldred
But Trump has managed somehow to be in everyone's thinking so much that people are making decisions based on what they think he's thinking. And so he may still, well may well still gosh, early, despite the fact that he did betray him, he might still get him to be on his side for this effort with the promise of something else later on down the line. And it seems that no matter what he does, world leaders are still saying yes to him. They're still showing up when he calls. And so he's still managing to really, really have a strong upper hand in so many situations where it looks like maybe he wouldn't because of the flip flopping that he does.
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Emma Nelson
Let's move to a story in Moritas about the former Prime Minister, Jim Bolger. He died aged 90. He was prime minister, what, between 1990 and 1907. But he did a very important thing in terms of cultural and societal reconciliation. Yes.
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Janelle Aldred
So his administration initiated the first government, Maori settlements for historic grievances related to colonisation and part of the reconciliation process. And he also started the mixed member proportional electoral system, which is something that's still going on in New Zealand today. The other day we saw those pictures of someone from the Maori people and she was taking. Was told off by the speaker for taking too long in her maiden speech. So there's a lot still going on there and these processes are long and enduring and some might say fights still continue for the fairness of it. But he was also a very principled politician by all accounts, and he actually was a Republican. And so he actually turned down a knighthood. He declined it and accepted membership in New Zealand's highest order instead.
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Emma Nelson
It's interesting, isn't it? Because in such a transactional world nowadays, and transactional has become the absolute byword for the way that the world operates. Thank you, Donald Trump. The idea of someone who comes into politics and carries principles throughout their career is something that. It's quite remarkable nowadays.
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Janelle Aldred
It is quite remarkable. And maybe it's because he was one of the old school conviction politicians, whereas now I think what seems to happen is it's more career politicians and it's people who make a career of politicking. And then one might ask them at the end of their career, how much change do you think you affected for the original reason that you came into politics? And I think some people might say not as much, but it was also a different world then where no one was going to be attacking him on social media for his held views and for sticking to his principles and deciding to do that. But he was obviously someone who affected great change and processes that were his convictions and he stuck with them the whole way.
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Emma Nelson
Now, let's move on to a story that's come out of China. It's been moving for quite a few weeks now. There is a company that makes outstandingly good quality soles for climbing shoes and for running shoes. They're called Arcterics. And what they do when it comes to making shoes is world class. What they have done in China, arguably less so.
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Janelle Aldred
So four Chinese officials were dismissed after this brand. And you just said it, I think it's Arcturics. Arcterics. No, it is Arcturix.
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Tira Schubert
And.
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Janelle Aldred
And they actually did a stunt. And they did a stunt in collaboration with Ziguo Qiang and he was behind the fireworks in Beijing Olympics 2008. And so they had a great idea that they thought was to do a fireworks display in the Himalayas. And being a brand that has sort of sustainability, endurance in terms of the produce they make, doing something like this, which actually disturbed wildlife, ruined land, left debris from this fireworks display that only lasted 90 seconds. That has been very much critiqued, criticized. They've apologized, they've paid some compensation, both the artist and the brand, they say that they're going to continue to do what they can to clean up the area. But 30 hectares of land were disturbed by this 90 second stunt in an area of outstanding natural beauty. And again, this kind of comes back down to the conviction and the principles. Why do you do what you do and what are you willing to do to create and to do something fantastic that will look great on social media? Well, yes, it did, but what it caused was like too many ripples.
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Emma Nelson
And indeed, and indeed the company, which doesn't just make shoe soles, it actually makes a wide area, wide range of outdoor brands. It's Canadian headquartered, so it has a sort of an outdoor, rugged brand image to it. But also it's Chinese owned. As far as I can gather, it's not been the brand that has been punished though it has been the Chinese officials who were involved, involved in it.
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Janelle Aldred
Yes. And that is interesting. But I guess you can tell off who you can tell off there. They're owned by a Hong Kong listed anti sports. And I guess what they're doing is they do have the power over the people in their own ecosystem, so to speak, who were probably responsible for saying yes to this stunt because I don't imagine they just went there and did it. They would have had to have sought some kind of permission. But they have admitted that the display was out of line with their brand's value.
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Emma Nelson
Okay, finally, let's talk about Donald Trump's arc to Trump, which is brilliant, absolutely wonderful for all the wrong reasons. Holding up a tiny, tiny little arch was a delightful thing to say. Right. Tell us about what Donald Trump wants now.
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Janelle Aldred
We saw when he went to France that he loved the Arc de Triomphe. He loved all of that walk that he did through France and through Paris. And so he, he wants to replicate that in America. He's also building a 250 seater ballroom as well. So he is turning America into a kind of mix and blend of the kind of militarization things that he adores, the very British kind of ballroom style. So he wants to build it opposite the Lincoln Memorial so that when people enter into Washington D.C. they come under this triumphant arc and can enter victoriously, as I'm sure he will for the first time. But it's been pretty privately funded by donors and he's even saying that some of the money that's left over he might put towards the Ukraine Recovery Fund. So he, he is an interesting character and whilst we may not agree with lots of what he does, things like this do make you laugh because it is actually pretty kind of funny that he's building a monument because he wants something lasting in his honor. We know he's paved over the Rose Garden, he's put gold all over the White House Oval Office. So he is creating, creating Washington in his own image and the things that he loves, which is kind of wild. But if it's privately funded, then who's to say not to? But whilst the government's on shutdown in US, it does seem like a strange time to be thinking about this.
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Emma Nelson
Janelle Oldred, Communications and Media Advisor, thank you so much for joining us in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist on Monaco Radio. Now here's a quick look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. Hamas has said it has returned all the bodies of Israeli hostages it can reach without specialist equipment. Yesterday, the group handed the remains of two more hostages back to Israel. Meanwhile, the Israeli defense minister has said he's ordered the preparation of a comprehensive plan to defeat Hamas if the terms of the ceasefire agreement aren't met. The US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, has warned Moscow that the United States and its allies will impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression if the war in Ukraine doesn't come to an end. Mr. Hegseth told a meeting at NATO headquarters that the US War Department stands ready to do its part in ways that only the United States can do. Donald Trump has confirmed he's authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela. The US President said he was targeting drug cartels in the Caribbean. France's highest court has rejected an appeal by the far right leader Marine Le Pen against her conviction for missing using party funds. The ruling marks a major setback to her efforts to overturn a sentence that could bar her from running in the 2027 presidential election elections. And Kenya's veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, who ran five times unsuccessfully for president and who was imprisoned multiple times, has died, aged 80, in his final bid for the presidency. He lost the 2022 elections to the now president William Ruto. Seven days of national mourning have been declared. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned now for a look behind some of the other headlines we're following here at Midori House. Here's Monocle's Chris Chermak on why Germany shouldn't be considering conscription again.
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Chris Chermak
Germany's governing coalition had hoped to unveil a new military modernization law this week that deals with the thorny issue of conscription. A lottery would pull some Germans into military service if needed. It was not a good look in the deal. As luck would have it collapsed. That means back to the drawing board for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who had promised to build Europe's strongest conventional army, and his government that pledged the funds to get it done. Germany ended mandatory conscription in 2011, but the war in Ukraine has prodded Europe's largest economy to refocus on defence. The goal is to recruit an extra 260,000 soldiers by 2030, and the lottery was portrayed as an egalitarian approach to make up the difference. But this whole conscription debate distracts from what Germany really needs a willing, professional army. Germany's opposition to conscription, led by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius of the Social Democrats wants to try the voluntary route first, including by sending questionnaires to those turning 18, encouraging them to join. But additional incentives are needed to make military careers more palatable to German society. Germany's professional military is dangerously behind the curve, and recent Russian drone incursions have laid this bare. An investigation by German public media outlets found the Bundeswehr is unprepared to respond to the uptick in Russia's hybrid war warfare. Perhaps Germany should consider modernizing its technology to defend Europe's airspace before filling its infantry division with garrisons of grudging soldiers. For Monocle, I'm Chris Chermak.
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Emma Nelson
Thank you, Chris. For more, sign up to our daily newsletter, the Monocle Minute. Head to our website monocle.com Minute 1533 in Seoul, 8:33am in Zurich. Now how secure is the defense cooperation in the Asia Pacific region? As nations ready themselves to deal with any threat from the likes of China, ties are being strengthened among the likes of Japan and South Korea, plus a continued reliance on the US to ride to the rescue where things to get serious. But my next guest is warning that the current agreements must evolve. And I'm joined now From Seoul by Dr. Joo Hyung Kim, who's president at the Security Management Institute, which is a defense think tank affiliated with the South Korean National Assembly. Very good afternoon to to you, Ju Hyung.
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Dr. Joo Hyung Kim
Thank you for having me.
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Emma Nelson
Thank you so much for joining us on Monocor Radio. So what is the current state of play? I mean, what kind of agreements do we have in place at the moment between the likes of Japan and South Korea?
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Dr. Joo Hyung Kim
All right, so the basic security structure or their framework is the mutual defense treaty between US and Korea which was signed in 1950, and US Japan National Security Pact, which was signed in 1954 and revised in 1960. And between Japan and South Korea, there aren't any formal pact and that is the very basis of the trilateral in the Far East.
- [35:41]
Emma Nelson
And you've written about this in an article where you've described something which is an embryonic entente, which is what you've just described, that needs to be transformed into a strong pillar of Indo Pacific security. What does that strong pillar look like?
- [35:57]
Dr. Joo Hyung Kim
So as a defense analyst, I've been interested in finding some applicable like lessons or you know, strategy framework in the Far East. However, like Japanese Prime Minister, former Japanese minister have mentioned the NATO, the Asian version of NATO, or recreating a SEATO collective security framework in this region seems to be unrealistic. So I thought we're going to have to work with the existing framework, which is the trilateral. But unfortunately, as I mentioned earlier, the two bilateral security treaty between US and Korea and US and Japan has been formed many, many decades prior to this moment. And we are facing unprecedented threats, including the dual contingency threat, namely the possibility of China invading Taiwan and simultaneously North Korea using that opportunity to create some crisis in the Korean peninsula. So given the unprecedented threat, I thought it would be better to use the existing framework, but in a realistic way. We can make some evolutionary, some institutionalized process in order to adapt to the unprecedented.
- [37:16]
Emma Nelson
One thing that you have mentioned in your article is the fact that you think that we need to look at history in order to find a solution or a plan. And you compare the situation now in Southeast Asia to the early 20th century in Europe, where you have the United Kingdom, France and Russia having to deal with a rapidly rising Germany. Where are the comparisons that you're drawing there?
- [37:44]
Dr. Joo Hyung Kim
All right, so let's look at the history prior to the outbreak of World War I, it was like 1914 and Germany, the rising Germany back then, and it has some similarity to the rising China at this juncture. But Germany, the Austrian, Hungarian Empire and Italy have made a formal alliance called the Triple alliance in 1882. And against this bloc, the democratic countries including UK and France, France and Russian Empire reacted by making an entente which is called the Triple Entente, which is not a formal alliance. And among these three countries, only France and Russia made a formal pact and between UK and France and France and UK have maintained an informal way of bonding one another. But it's a very effective way of not forming a formal pact. Nevertheless, it was effective against the Triple alliance and I thought it would be strategically insightful for the current day far eastern trilaterals.
- [38:56]
Emma Nelson
Dr. Joo Hyung Kim, President at the Security Management Institute in Seoul, thank you so much for joining us on the line from South Korea. You're listening to Monochromatic Local Radio.
- [39:10]
Dr. Marion Messmer
Now.
- [39:10]
Emma Nelson
Last week Munich played host to Expo Real, Europe's largest property and investment fair, which is a key fixture in the diaries of developers, CEOs and city officials. This year, nearly 40,000 visitors, 650 speakers and some 1700 exhibitors were there. And one of those was SARC, the Smart Accommodation for Residential Complexes company. Its goal is to change what residential living in Saudi Arabia can look like, with a particular focus on the build to rent sector and workforce living. While Monocle senior foreign correspondent Carlotta Abella caught up with the CEO James Atkinson in Munich to hear how SARC is Building communities and putting quality of life at the centre of its project.
- [39:51]
James Atkinson
SARC is acting in support of Vision 2030, which is this transformational blueprint which seeks to diversify the Saudi economy and improve the quality of life for Saudi citizens. The scale, the pace, the ambition of that change is just remarkable. It's unprecedented. You know, up to 2030, about US$1.3 trillion will be invested in Vision 2030 infrastructure. And that creates hundreds of thousands of direct and indirect jobs. So SARC has a big task. We've got a lot on our plate to increase the supply of employee accommodation to meet this demand and also to elevate standards. And I think that creation of institutional level cash flows of potential co investment opportunities with a local Saudi business who brings the expertise and the opportunities on the ground. It's something that we accept is, is emerging as an opportunity. But it's something which could potentially be very interesting to international investors.
- [41:00]
Emma Nelson
Now what is interesting, every time we've.
- [41:02]
Dr. Marion Messmer
Spoken about Saudi 2030, it's interesting that.
- [41:06]
Emma Nelson
The duality that happens, which is on one side you'll have people who are building for an existing demand and then you also have building for future demand. Knowing, you know, when this investment, when the new people come to the country, when more companies move in, you need to be ready for that. At what stage do you feel like the work of SARC is at? Or maybe it's both at the same time?
- [41:27]
James Atkinson
This is an interesting question. You've got organic and existing demand and you have induced or future demand. I think we're quite lucky as SARC because there is more than enough existing demand to enable the SARC pipeline and to de risk the supply of beds that we presently working on. Maybe I can give you two quick examples. So first of all, we're incredibly privileged to own and operate the Al Nakla residential resort, which is probably the best established of the tier one management accommodation compounds in Riyadh. It's 1136 apartments and villas at about 95% occupancy across the board. But in the two bed, the three bed, the four bedroom villas that tend to be popular with families, you know, we're at either 100% occupancy or waiting list. So this tells you that that demand for the premium level management accommodation, it hasn't gone away. If anything it's expanding and we're also looking to increase our supply of management accommodation accordingly. Now, in terms of the worker accommodation product, I think a great example is our new project at Ramal. So Ramal is a piece of Land in the north of Riyadh in what we call the Northern expansion zone. And it's going to provide around 12,000 worker and about 3,000 staff accommodation beds on a site of about 260,000 square meters. And I think what's really interesting is that this development is within 6km of three existing big demand drivers. The first of which is the King Salmon International Airport which is a new six Runway airport over an area of some 57,000 square kilometres and with an eventual capacity of 185 million passengers. You've got Roshan, the community developer and house builder with a 60,000 new home project over a 32 square kilometre area which for context is around six times the size of Central Park. And you've got the Expo 2030 site, a nationally significant project with international reach, all within six kilometers of us. And they have an aggregate requirement which is closer measured in the hundreds of thousands rather than the tens of thousands beds. So I think the illustration and the response here is that of course we see future demand, but there is more than enough to be working on in the near term.
- [43:58]
Emma Nelson
Now you have mentioned a few projects and a few areas and neighborhoods as well. Looking ahead to the future of sarc.
- [44:05]
Dr. Marion Messmer
What excites you the most?
- [44:07]
James Atkinson
So we have a project presently submitted for permitting which is called Al aruba. It's about 708. Well it's exactly 708 residential apartments for lease. It is overlooking the new King Salmon park development which is just a transformational central urban green space for Riyadh on the site of a former air base actually. And we're going to be providing two 24 floor towers with far reaching views. We're going to be providing that sort of more European build to rent product where you're mixing luxury apartment led living with community and with services. And I think that's a really nice, it's a really natural evolution of a build to rent sector that's tended to focus more on ultra low density, low rise, gated compounds and communities. So as somebody who worked extensively, extensively in the build to rent space in the uk, in London in particular, I can see some real parallels with that emerging institutional quality build to rent product in Riyadh. It's a real privilege for us to be at the vanguard of that emerging market.
- [45:23]
Emma Nelson
That was SARC CEO James Atkinson talking to Monocle's Carlotta Rebello in Munich. You're listening to the globalist.
- [45:33]
UBS Narrator
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- [46:11]
Emma Nelson
Swap 1545 in Tokyo, which is where we head now for an update in the music and culture news from Japan. And joining us from our Tokyo studio is Patrick San Michelle, who's a Tokyo based writer with a focus on Japanese music. Patrick, a very good afternoon to you. How's Tokyo looking today?
- [46:27]
Patrick San Michelle
It's very cloudy today, but overall pretty nice. Thanks for having me today.
- [46:31]
Emma Nelson
Excellent. Thank you for the weather report. Tell us. So for those of us who haven't got a special list on whatever thing we listen to for Japanese music, what is happening where you are.
- [46:43]
Patrick San Michelle
Right now in Japanese music? You are seeing a lot of sort of as is happening all around the world, a lot of fragmentation in what listeners are being drawn. I would say at the moment the biggest artist in the country is a guy named Kenshi Onazu. He's been around for a little over a decade and he's become one of the biggest names in the country. And recently he's released two songs that kind of show his duality as an artist. Both are tied to anime, which is one of the main ways people discover music in Japan. Now one song called Iris out is this really frantic, club inspired track that kind of like fritzes out at times. It's really almost like unpredictable in its nature. The other, which is almost kind of a passing of the torch moment in J Pop is called Jane Doe and it's a duet that he does with the legendary singer Utada Hikaru, who has been a J Pop superstar since the late 90s. So Yonezu is kind of at the top of this. He represents the mainstream using anime as a way to reach people.
- [47:54]
Emma Nelson
What do I find quite interesting at the same time? So sorry to interrupt. What I find really interesting about that is that the two people that you mentioned there have been around for quite a long time. I mean Kenji Yonezu has been around for What, a good 10, 12 years? Mm.
- [48:07]
Patrick San Michelle
So they're kind of, they're almost reaching. Their Yonesu in particular represents the 2010s onwards of Japanese pop music. So let's say for a millennial crow here in Japan. But at the same time you are seeing a younger generation of artists starting to emerge who are reflecting new sets of both sonic and emotional values. The hottest rookie group in Japan this year is a girls outfit called Hana I Believe it's six or seven members. I want to say seven. And they came together through a reality singing competition called no, no Girl Girls. And they're kind of like a pop hip hop hybrid. And they were put together by a famous Japanese rapper named Chan Mina. And their idea is sort of spreading a sort of self positivity message combined with embracing just how you look and using hip hop in particular to reach a very young audience, that, to me, represents the future of Japanese pop music.
- [49:08]
Emma Nelson
My furious searching on the Internet suggests that there are six of them you were talking about.
- [49:13]
Patrick San Michelle
Thank you for that.
- [49:14]
Emma Nelson
No problem at all. We learn as we go along the emotional values that are being brought forward. I mean, you mentioned the idea of positivity, and so just tell us a little bit about what they're singing about to make us all feel, you know, wonderful.
- [49:29]
Patrick San Michelle
They sing about embracing your own sort of personal beauty, your own personal worth. The show they came from the aforementioned no no Girls. That gets its name from the contestants basically always being told no because maybe they were seen as not pretty enough or even not talented enough to be in a traditional J pop group, but in this new kind of outfit, they're able to just embrace themselves, even their weaknesses, even what they see as maybe things that they're not fully confident in. And the songs reflect that. Celebrating that, like, you know, hey, I'm maybe not a traditional model of a Japanese singer or even just a woman in general, but I'm still gonna embrace it and create my own confidence and that with others who need to hear that.
- [50:16]
Emma Nelson
That's a pretty big thing. Not just in Japan, but actually globally, definitely.
- [50:21]
Patrick San Michelle
Yeah. So it's kind of like getting on track with global music trends too.
- [50:27]
Emma Nelson
So we've got sort of global music trends there, but is there anything in Japan particularly that are sort of any major changes or any big, big upsets.
- [50:35]
Patrick San Michelle
That are happening in terms of the landscape of Japanese music? We are seeing a pretty big arena boom playing out all across the country, but especially in Tokyo and the surrounding area that includes like Yokohama, Chiba prefecture. And it's just radically transforming the live music landscape out here. In the past 10 years, artists had to use these really old kind of, honestly, gymnasiums. Basically they were built for, like, sports and never had music or even like spectators in mind. So you'd go. And for artists and their companies, it was really hard to put on the shows. There's no parking lot for trucks to deliver supplies. So they would just have to find these clever ways of getting over that hurdle. But now you're Seeing a new wave of arenas emerge that are built for music, at least with music in mind. And that's really helping elevate live music in the area.
- [51:37]
Emma Nelson
And it must also do really good. Sorry, do an awful lot of good for local communities as well. Because an arena will bring in lots of people and lots of business.
- [51:48]
Patrick San Michelle
Absolutely. And that's something that everyone involved in the construction of these new arenas has in mind when they make them. There's a really good example that you could see in Yokohama. So about like 45 minutes by train from Tokyo. It's called K Arena Yokohama and it's one of the only arenas, possibly the only period that has been designed only for music. So no sports, no like theater productions, only concerts. But beyond just being a place to put on these, like huge shows like Mariah Carey will play there next month, they've also built a lot of new businesses, new hotels, new restaurants around it and creating a new kind of entertainment hub that is helping boost up Yokohama's image as a place to go for entertainment and also boosting up the local economy significantly.
- [52:39]
Emma Nelson
Finally packed. Patrick, time is, I'm afraid, against us. But if you had one track, one artist you'd advise us all to put into our ears today, who would it be?
- [52:48]
Patrick San Michelle
Ooh, great question. I would say so if I were to choose just one and to show the way that the edges of Japanese music are always changing, I would recommend anything by an artist named Hokushi Hasegawa. He's kind of an electronic artist. He's currently signed to Brainfeeder, the LA based experimental electronics electronic label. And he has put out just a bunch of fantastic, kind of like jazz influenced, warped electronic dance music. So check out anything by him.
- [53:22]
Dr. Marion Messmer
Yeah.
- [53:22]
Emma Nelson
What more could we ask for? Patrick, Sam, Michelle, thank you so much for joining us from Tokyo. You were the globalist. Finally on today's program, if you're in the market for a career change, then how far is Asteroid minor up on the list? The sector is being pushed as a potential answer to China's grip on rare earth minerals. Jobs are being created, missions are being planned, and you can even obtain a degree in asteroid mining. Well, to tell us more, I'm joined in the studio by Tira Schubert, who's fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society, ambassador for the Science Museum, and I'm happy to say a regular guest in the studio. Good morning, Tira, Good to see you.
- [54:26]
Tira Schubert
Good morning.
- [54:27]
Emma Nelson
So what is an asteroid miner?
- [54:30]
Tira Schubert
Well, an asteroid miner is. Well, it's not going to be a person. It's going to be robotics. There is about a million asteroids in our solar system. Some of them are closer to Earth than others. But NASA estimates that the precious metals, not the precious metals, the rare earth metals that are in asteroids that we can get access to with the right technology is worth $700 quintillion dollars. Now. That's 700 followed by 18 zeros.
- [55:00]
Emma Nelson
That's a lot. And how do we go about mining for these asteroids? Because last time I checked, asteroids don't stay still.
- [55:07]
Tira Schubert
No, they don't. And so you need new techniques. You need to. On Earth, you have heavy machinery. It drills down and it pulls up the substances. Well, if you did that on an asteroid and using that kind of force, you'd bounce back off. So new ways of mining are being investigated. For example, laser that separates different metals. Or even a capture bag where you take a small asteroid and put it in capture, capture bag and bring it back. And also spider like sort of robotics that climb and are able to analyze.
- [55:38]
Emma Nelson
And dig and just explain the logistics behind this, because you actually have to get to the asteroid, don't you?
- [55:44]
Tira Schubert
You have to get to that.
- [55:45]
Emma Nelson
How'd you do that?
- [55:47]
Tira Schubert
Well, it's much less expensive to launch rockets than it used to be. I mean, the difference in price has gone down enormously in the last half century. So you have to go to the asteroid and then you have to, you have to extract the different rare earth elements which they're very, very rich in. We know this already. And then you have to bring them back to Earth. So, yes, it's three stages, but we've done this now three times. The Japanese space agency JAXA has brought back tiny bits from asteroids in their two Hayabusa missions. And then just two years ago, NASA brought back a whopping 120 grams from asteroid. Asteroid Bennu.
- [56:30]
Emma Nelson
Right. And 120 grams is a considerable amount. I mean, how much is it actually going to fulfill that incredible need that the human race has for rare earth minerals?
- [56:40]
Tira Schubert
Well, it has to scale up. Obviously. 120 grams is the sort of thing that you'd be looking at adding to something in your kitchen. So it's not very much. But once you have the technology, it's easy to scale up. And it also has a tremendous benefit for the Earth environment. Because if you're mining platinum, that's one of the rare earth elements on Earth, to mine a kilo of it, you're creating 400,000 kilos of CO2. If you are doing it off planet and you're bringing it back, that comes down to a mere 120 kilos of CO2.
- [57:19]
Emma Nelson
And the reason behind all this is what I suggested at the beginning of this interview, which is China has an absolute iron grip on the mining and the export of rare earth minerals and it has caused a problem. Is this decision or this appetite for asteroid mining an indirect response to this?
- [57:42]
Tira Schubert
It's not. So it is. That's definitely one factor. But the thing is that these rare earth elements are by nature rare and we need them to power our economy. All the electronics, you need it for the green economy, anything that use in the green economy uses these. And so it's the natural extension. And we believe that within 30, and these are experts and different space agencies around the world, within 30 to 40 years, this will be a viable industry and we will be bringing them back.
- [58:12]
Emma Nelson
Very Briefly, we've got 20 seconds to explain how you actually get into this industry, because clearly you're saying it's growth, it's growing fast.
- [58:18]
Tira Schubert
Well, you can. There's a Colorado School of Mines, other mining universities, the Luxembourg Space Agency. There's degrees that you can get in space mining. And so study your geology and your robotics and look up at the stars.
- [58:31]
Emma Nelson
Robotics, geology, rockets, the lot. Tyra Schubert, thank you so much for joining us in the studio. Tiru is a fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society and ambassador for the Science Museum. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers, Laura Kramer, Tom Webb and Hassan Anderson. Our researcher was Joanna Moser and our studio manager was Elliot Greenfield. After the headlines. More music on the way. The briefings live at M midday here in London. The Globe List is back at the same time tomorrow. Hope you can join me for that if you can. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thank you very much for listening.
- [59:41]
UBS Narrator
With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovation, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.