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UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on the 7th of July, 2026 on Monocor Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, NATO leaders head to Turkey as the US Pressures member states to stump up more for defense. We'll look ahead to a crucial summit. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes,
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Mark Carney
as part of our commitments to defend Canada and to support our allies, I'm pleased to announce that Canada has selected TKMS as the preferred supplier for Canada's patrol submarine project.
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Emma Nelson
The Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney. There, the country chooses a German manufacturer to build 12 submarine. So we'll hear more about the deal and where it positions Ottawa.
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Scott Bryan
Plus, I think a sale to an American company 10 years ago would have been unthinkable just because ITV would have been so much more valuable.
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Bruno Courtrai
Why?
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Emma Nelson
One of the UK's most treasured broadcasters has been bought by an American company. Plus, the papers, the Urbanism news and we check in with our teams who are out in Abu Dhabi. That's all coming up on the Globalist live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. A Syrian president has welcomed the visit of his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron. A tanker has reportedly been hit by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman close to the Strait of Hormuz. It comes despite a ceasefire in the Iran conflict and Cuba's national power grid has reportedly collapsed. The grid failure is the latest in a series of blackouts to hit the country. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, this week's NATO gathering in the Turkish capital of Ankara is being described as one of the most significant in the alliance's history. Europe is facing unrelenting pressure from the US to up its game when it comes to committing more resources. Ukraine is almost four and a half years into its full scale invasion by Russia. And in the middle, the host, Turkey is positioning itself as a key international player. Well, Monocle's Istanbul correspondent Hannah Lucinda Smith joins me now. Very good morning to you, Hannah. Welcome to the studio.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
So, yes, I mean, everybody is saying this is the most significant or one of the most significant in NATO's history, but this is what seems to be said about every single NATO gathering. So what's different about this one?
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
Well, they all seem to be pretty significant now, don't they? It's kind of, it's weird to remember, but actually the NATO summit didn' used to be an annual thing. This is quite recently that that's happened and I think that's a sign of just how many challenges NATO is facing. That's a euphemistic way to put it. Of course, last year in the Hague, there was this commitment made by European countries to up their defence spending to 5% of GDP. It's expected that those European countries are going to announce a spending over the past year of $139 billion, which hopefully will go some way towards satisfying President Trump, of course, who does not want the US to really be giving any more to European security and has of course on several occasions threatened to withdraw the US entirely. So this is really going to be a summit about Europe, European countries, European NATO members showing what they have done already, what they can do more of, and also bringing together quite a wide range of kind of NATO aligned countries, principally of course, Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Anchorage, is expected to have dinner with those NATO leaders this and then there are also sessions for the NATO foreign ministers and defence ministers which are going to bring in other countries, including Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, various Gulf states as well. So I think, yeah, this is really, really a key summit for NATO.
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Emma Nelson
And let's just talk about Donald Trump and his pressure on defense spending. There is talk this morning and just look at the front page of the ft. The big read is how Europe would fight without America. As NATO meets, the continent is starting to think about how to defend itself without the us. A couple of years one would have thought that was absolutely unthinkable. But there is now this very much this feeling there are two streams to NATO, which is Donald Trump as an individual representing the United States and then the rest of Europe.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
Yeah, and I think, you know, the breaking point was J.D. vance's speech at Munich last year. You know, this speech where he basically upended the kind of Europe US settlement that's been in place since 1945. I think there is a realization amongst European countries that Trump is at best a mercurial leader. You cannot rely on the US under Trump to be coming to the rescue of Europe. And it does need to be looking out for its own defence requirements. Now, there has been some effort put into this. There is a European funding mechanism which aims to kind of boost defence production across the continent. One of the big problems with that, at least from the perspective of London and Ankara, is that we're not part of that. Turkey and the U.K. can't access that. That's actually an EU program. Of course, there is this big overlap between EU and NATO. And one of the things that the U.K. and Turkey are going to want to do is to see a kind of expansion of that EU program. So they can also get in on this defence procurement.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. And this need for Europe to strengthen its position and role. Will there be discussions on the sidelines about how to go about doing that, thinking the unthinkable, the North Atlantic Treaty organ, that the line is splitting right down the middle, down the middle of the Atlantic?
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
Yeah, absolutely. And I think it's really interesting if you look at the kind of meetings that have been going on in the days leading up to this summit. We had NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte going in the past couple of days to the Baltic states. Now, of course, these are the states that are absolutely on the front line of Russian threats and aggression. When people talk about Russia perhaps preparing for some kind of aggression against a NATO member state by 2030, these are the kind of states they're talking about. And I think the NATO alliance really wants to show at this point that even without the kind of solid backing of the us, it is still an alliance that can protect its members. Whether or not that's the case, whether or not we're going to see that put to the test, that's a different matter.
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Emma Nelson
Let's talk about the focus on support for Ukraine as well. I mean, we've had in the Last sort of 24 hours Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying, look, the battle in the sky is going to decide the outcome of the war in Russia. He is constantly saying Donald Trump has changed his mind about the. About support for Ukraine. But one never really knows what Donald Trump changing his mind is. But he is saying now that Zelensky is saying, you need to be smarter. You have to use an updated kit of parts in order to do this. And there is often the sense that NATO is lagging behind here.
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Scott Bryan
Yeah.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
And in fact, one of the really interesting things that's happened in the Ukraine war is the development of Ukraine's own defense industry, particularly the drones. I mean, the drones that Ukraine's been developing are so good that they're now actually selling them to other countries. And looking into that, one of the things that's expected to be announced over the next couple of days in Ankara is 70 billion of money going to Ukraine from European countries. I think there is still a very, very strong sense from Europe that they are still very much behind Ukraine. But of course, again, we have seen, you know, huge indications coming from Trump and from J.D. vance that the U.S. is not necessarily as steadfast in that.
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Emma Nelson
And also we have the sense now that, I think Alexander Stubb has said, the Finnish president has said that NATO is now backing Ukraine's push to hit Russia harder. This is where the sort of the traditional boundaries start to, to, to wobble, don't they? And there is this moment when NATO has to decide, when I think we talked about this in the past, whether Article 5 could ever be triggered because it would be such a huge thing, but also for, for the idea that for NATO to sanction pushing into Russia, that again, is a complete change of mindset, isn't it?
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
It is. And to do so sort of publicly in this way as well, because, of course, you know, detractors might say, well, that gives Vladimir Putin exactly the pretext that he needs to start expanding his own attacks or sabotage or however he's doing it against NATO member states. And I think you're right. This question of Article 5, you know, on this very basic level, okay, it's a mutual defense alliance, you know, if one member states attacks. But then if you have this whole background, where are those lines drawn? And I think those are going to be really interesting political questions which probably are going to be sort of thrashed out behind the scenes over the next couple of days.
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Emma Nelson
You've mentioned, you've touched briefly on Turkey and the European alliance when it comes to defence, but where does Ankara sit here? Because Erdogan has always historically been very good at talking to absolutely everybody. And one wonders what Ankara and what Turkey is trying to get out of this.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
So here's the really interesting thing. You only have to go back, what, 20, 22, four years. And Turkey was the kind of spoiler at the party at the NATO summit. It was saying, no, we're not going to allow Sweden and Finland to join unless they do this, this, this and this. Fast forward to today. And Erdogan is not only hosting this summit, he's also seen as the one leader within NATO who can perhaps reach out to Trump and keep Trump on side. It is quite incredible, you know, for the longest time For a decade, you know, Turkey was almost this pariah within NATO. There were other NATO leaders, you know, openly criticizing his actions both at home and in terms of foreign policy. And also talk about whether Turkey might even leave NATO. And today, Turkey and Erdogan are right back at the center of that alliance.
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Emma Nelson
And let's go. You know, just talking about Donald Trump and the fact that, you know, that relationship that we get with Turkey. We heard I mentioned earlier on that Vladimir Zelensky says that Trump is on his side at the moment. He's changed his mind. And there is that sense that I think Zelensky said he likes to back the side of the winners. We have a little clip of Donald Trump here explaining his position on NATO.
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Mark Carney
I think we're getting much closer than people realize. President Putin wants it to end. I will tell you that very strongly.
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Yossi Meckelberg
Good call.
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Mark Carney
And President Zelensky actually wants it to end now. And we're going to be going to NATO and we're going to be talking about it, and I think we're going to get it ended.
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Emma Nelson
I mean, that sounds as if there's a, you know, there's a strong position from Donald Trump. But if you'd like the likes of Erdogan and all the other leaders who are dealing in Europe at the moment, I mean, how much is there a sense that Putin wants this to end and that they can get this done through negotiation?
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
I've not seen much evidence of that, I have to say, from my position. I mean, you never know what is going on behind the scenes, of course. But this is a war that's gone on for more than four years now. It does seem to be a war that neither side can win on the battlefield, and both sides have demands or red lines that the other won't accept. Now, I think the question is, can it be, can some kind of deal be negotiated just through the kind of the force of the personalities involved, through the kind of personalities, personal relationships that Erdogan has with Putin, that Trump has with Erdogan, that Trump has with Putin, perhaps. Is that going to be a stable deal? Is Putin a leader that could be trusted to stick to his word? I think those are other questions as well, Anna.
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Emma Nelson
Linda Smith, Monocle's Istanbul correspondent, thank you for joining me in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist. It's Ella 8:12 in Paris, 7:12am here in London Now, a verdict by an appeals court in France today will determine whether Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far right National Rally Party, will be able to Add her name to the ballot paper in next year's presidential elections. Madame Le Pen was found guilty last year of embezzling more than a million euros in European Parliament money to pay the employees in her own party. She's been barred from running next year, but this could change if her appeal today is success. For more on this, we can speak to Bruno Courtrai. He's a research fellow at the Centre for Political Research at Paris's Sciences Po University and he's a member of the editorial board of the Revue Francaise de Science Politique. He joins us from Monocle Studio in the French capital. A very good morning to you, Bruno.
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Bruno Courtrai
Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
Is she going to win her appeal today?
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Bruno Courtrai
No one knows exactly the response. It's going to be very difficult decision for the judges, actually, because on the one side they want obviously to confirm the sanction against Marine Le Pen. She's not going to be not guilty. But also you have the big, big, big issue, which is are they going to reduce the extra sanction of ineligibility? You just recall that, that normally she can't run for an election for five years and she's making an appeal. So the top, top, top, the peak of the day is to know if they are going to reduce that from five to two years, if Marine Le Pen could finally run for the next presidential election.
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Emma Nelson
And what happens if she can't run? The natural replacement is who? Jordan Bardella?
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Bruno Courtrai
Yes, obviously he's the new party leader, actually, the very young Jordan Bardella, age 30, with no experience before of any cabinet member. He has been never a cabinet member, he has been never having any local executive. But at the same time, he is among the most most popular French political leaders on today. So obviously he would be the candidate if Marine Le Pen can't run and
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Emma Nelson
if she can't, if she can run. However, let's examine this again. I mean, she's been twice defeated by Emmanuel Macron for the presidency. Would this be her final shot? So today we work out. It's sort of a now or never moment, isn't it?
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Bruno Courtrai
Yes. What is very difficult, probably for Marine Le Pen at the personal level, is that she has been never so close to winning the French presidential election, as she's credited in the last polls of about 30, 32% of the vote in the first round. And so for Marine Le Pen, if she finally can run for the election, it is probably the momentum of her political career. The big question for French politics is not exactly to know if the Rassan Le Mond National Marine Le Pen or Jordan Badela could qualify for the second round of the election. They would. They would. The big question is to know who is going to be on the second seat for the second round of the election.
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Emma Nelson
Tell us what will happen if she is barred from running. How will that alter the political narrative as we head towards a presidential election?
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Bruno Courtrai
It could change, obviously, if it is Marine Le Pen or Jordan Parlein, it's not going to be exactly the same story. The two leaders of the Rassemblement national have about the same voting intention between 30 to 35, but they have not the same age. They are not coming from the same political story. Actually, Marine Le Pen, everyone knows her in France. The French public knows her qualities. Her default also. But if it is finally Jordan Bardella, the big political question is to know if Jordan Bardella have exactly the same policy agenda as Marine Le Pen, particularly on economic issues. He has given many sides to the right, that he's closer to the right than Marine Le Pen is.
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Emma Nelson
There is also the sense in the last few months at least, that Marine Le Pen has been attacking the judiciary in saying that this is a travesty of justice. She was slightly more subdued earlier this weekend when she did a rally with Jordan Bardella. Maybe there's a sense of resignation to what she was saying. But when you have. I mean, we've seen this in the United States, when you have the judiciary getting involved in politics, that becomes a very incendiary moment, doesn't it, for democracy and for the way that politics is formed?
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Bruno Courtrai
Yes, this is actually one of the main arguments of the Rassemble Monitionnel to say the judges can't actually block a democratic process, which is an election. And it's the reason why I think it's a very difficult decision for the judges. At the same time, they need to show to the French, with all the questions that we have in France on today with justice. The judicial system is not at the top in these times in France. So at the same time, the judges need to show to the French that Marine Le Pen is actually just an ordinary citizen having exactly the same sanction as you and me. But on the other side, obviously they have the big issue, which is their political responsibility within the electorate of the Rasa Menhe of the Rasomon National. Probably a huge frustration if Marine Le Pen can't run. So very difficult decision for the tribunal on today.
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Emma Nelson
Finally, a quick question more generally about the presidential race. We can't have Emmanuel Macron next year, so how is the race shaping up?
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Bruno Courtrai
It's very difficult to know exactly who would be the winner. We know that the Rasembre Monseigneur would qualify for the second round, absolutely no doubt on that. So, so if there would be a single candidate on the left or a single candidate on the right, then we could say that eventually they could beat, they could finally defeat the Rassemblemont Nationale. But we have several candidates on the right and several candidates on the left and it is absolutely not certain that they could qualify for the second round. Everyone wonder if the second round of the election would be the far right against the far left. That would be obviously a big shock for French politics.
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Emma Nelson
Thanks, Bruno Cotras, who's a research fellow at the Centre for Political Research at Paris Sciences Po University. Thank you so much for joining us from our Paris studio. Still to come today we'll be looking
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Carlos Rebelo
at the French Senate, which will begin debating its housing bill, which for the first time includes a provision on adapting homes to intense heat. Plus, the World Monuments Fund has released a list of the 10 most endangered buildings in the US to mark its 250th anniversary.
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Emma Nelson
That's Carlos Rubello. She'll be joining me a little bit later for an urbanism wrap. So stay tuned.
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UBS Narrator
CRAFT is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office, Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS Banking is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
Newspaper. Time. Joining me in the studio is Yossi Meckelberg, senior consulting Fellow at the Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House here in London. Good morning, Yossi, how are you?
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Yossi Meckelberg
Good morning, Emma. I'm good.
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Emma Nelson
It's getting hotter by the day.
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Yossi Meckelberg
Yes, it's very sunny. If all those climate change skeptics, I think they just should come to Europe, London and Sea. It's real.
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Emma Nelson
It's very real. Right, let's start with a look at the papers. And let's start in the Middle East. Hamas offers to hand over authority in Gaza to US backed administration. I don't quite believe I'm reading this. Tell me what this is.
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Yossi Meckelberg
Well, apparently the Israeli government doesn't believe in it and they're Hamas skeptics. And you know, there is an article in some newspaper, but I picked this one from Asha Kiraswad which is based here in London. And it's interesting, how to say that they argue that the government emergency committee, which oversees the Hamas overseeing the government in Gaza is dissolved. But they say still that the ministers and the ministries and the staff stays in place. So that's the question, who is really going to run Gaza? But even then we are talking only about 40% of Gaza, while we almost forgot with the war in Iran, that there is a Board of peace and also the National Committee of running Gaza, who is supposed to be the Palestinian temporary government, and nothing is actually moving. While the UN just report two days ago that the humanitarian situation is getting worse. Israel is talking about taking more, more of the territory. And since the ceasefire was announced, more than thousand people were killed in Gaza. So the question is this kind of one of these moments that there is an opportunity to make things move or it's more a PR exercise.
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Emma Nelson
And what are your thoughts? What is your take on this one? Because for Hamas to say that it is handing over control of the Strip and that the body, the governing body that Hamas has been using to try to control what's happening in Gaza has been dissolved. On the one hand, you believe, well, this is actually what everybody wanted to happen in order to have peace occur. But when you have the Israelis in the US saying we don't believe you, then that sets things on a much more difficult path.
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Yossi Meckelberg
And of course, when Israel is kind of into the election have been announced, but they are around the corner and the Foreign Minister, Gidon Sar said, we don't believe it's also for domestic consumption. But the question is whether Hamas is actually signaling here. And I think there is a possibility to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza that is not in Gaza right now, not allowed to enter into Gaza, led by Ali Shah is we are ready to start talking about ending over authority. Because the response from Mr. Shah is that, you know, there should be only one law in Gaza, only one in possession of arms. And this can be a process. But again, if the United States, if Israel say no, we don't believe you, it's all a PR stunt, then we'll move probably nowhere forward.
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Emma Nelson
And we also, at the end of the day, have to not forget that Gaza is in absolute ruins two and a half years since October 7th. And so the humanitarian crisis is not
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Yossi Meckelberg
abating there at all on any level. From waste collection, from food. Many, many people have maximum one meal, meal a day. Kids go maybe two, three times a week to school. And when I say school is very makeshift school. So on any level there is, it's beyond humanitarian crisis. It is a disaster. And it's improved, it's better than it was, but nowhere close where it should be.
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Emma Nelson
Okay, let's move to an article in the Times where we have the leader of reform uk, marvellous picture of him with an excellent double breasted suit with buttons, brass buttons, ladies and gentlemen. It's one of those amazing pictures that he's all sunshine. However, the parliamentary standards watchdog is going to be interviewing him over a 5 million pound gift he received from a cryptocurrency billionaire. What's wrong with receiving £5 million as a gift, Yossi?
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Yossi Meckelberg
I don't know. No one offered us, I think him a £5 million gift or anything close to this. So that's the question, you know, do you really believe what Nigel Farage supposed to be the man of the people, the one that, you know, the people in the streets can relate to? And in the meantime, it's not only the 5 million that he got allegedly to begin with for his security and then when he got really upset and if I want to buy Ferraris, I'll buy Ferraris with this. So it's not only for his security because as he claimed is very much the most threatened politician in the uk, which is not true. And so there's the question, what people that give you 5 million actually want in return? Do they want anything in return? That's the need to answer. But in the meantime, you know, is a brand name of some company that sells gold and he gets money from a fraudster, someone a convicted fraudist in the United States. So that's the question. If the fraud, it's not only about Farage and he might be on the way out and the people themselves said enough is enough, he obviously likes the good life. But if it's also reform, rich it speak and probably there is no one that can have this kind of appeal to the person in the street as Farage. And it opens the way to normal politics here in the uk.
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Emma Nelson
Well, yes, I mean that's quite a big jump to make because politics has not got very normal, is not very normal here in the uk, that reform has come from absolutely nowhere and is now arguably the loudest voice on the political landscape. The interesting thing is, as you say, that without Nigel Farage, what is reform?
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Yossi Meckelberg
The issues themselves won't go away. As you know, during the election in Meccafield, what we think is the future Prime Minister of the uk, Andy Burnham, heard a lot about immigration, you know, the need to curtail immigration, how to deal with asylum. So this kind of issue or cost of living and all the things that reform in and mainly Nigel Farage in its populist approach, you know, tapped into not going away, but it might the discourse about it, the conversation about it might be less a populist one and more constructive. And that's a possibility.
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Emma Nelson
Finally, the United States, or rather Donald Trump does not like to be beaten by Europe. And there's this brilliant article in, I think it's in New York Times today that he wanted to draw our attention to about Trump clashing. It creating a new clash with Europe at all was to do with an issuing of a red card to the United States top striker. And Trump managed to get the one match ban overturned ahead of a match with Belgium. Belgium, the most European country of countries one imagine. So what's happened here then? And how has the New York Times managed to turn this into a geopolitical article?
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Yossi Meckelberg
Yeah, the New York Times very successfully. Talk about it's an array issue. It's about Greenland, it's about tariffs, it's about NATO. And you know, the summit, the NATO summit is taking place in Ankara this week, which we don't expect is going to be all roses between the European allies and others. And Trump would put more pressure on spending more money on security. And this just symbolizes the Trump era, which rules don't apply. It's whatever I decide. I mean he decides the rules. Those are the rules. So we all know if you get the red carpet, all of us football supporters don't like when one of our players is sent off, you're suspended for a game. It doesn't imply picking up the phone, not trying to influence, as he said, but having a nice conversation about this, as any president does with the president of the governing body. And then it overturns. There is even kind of some irony because the player we are talking about is by completely coincidence an American. His parents visit New York and he was born there and only by birth of right. He sits at the very low constitutional right that Trump tried to overturn. So these are the rules. If it serves me, it's the rule.
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Emma Nelson
And what was the score with the Belgium USA match?
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Yossi Meckelberg
Forgive all my American friends, 4:1 to Belgium. So maybe there was at the end of the day, some poetic justice.
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Emma Nelson
Yossi Meckelberg, thank you so much for joining me in this year studio. Now here's a look at some of the stories we're following today. The Syrian president has welcomed the visit of his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron. It's the first by a Western leader since the toppling of the assad regime. Prosecutors in the US state of Utah have begun to present evidence in the case against the alleged killer of the conservative activist Charlie Kirk. He was shot dead last year.
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Carlos Rebelo
Year.
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Emma Nelson
A tanker has reportedly been hit by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman. It's close to the Strait of Hormuz. This comes despite a ceasefire in the Iran conflict. And Cuba's national power grid has reportedly collapsed. The failure is the latest in a series of blackouts to hit the country. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It's what? 8:30 in Berlin. 2:30am in Ottawa. And in one of the biggest defence contracts in the country's history, Canada has announced a deal with the German submarine manufacturer Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems to build 12 submarines. The winner beat the South Korean company Hanwha Ocean, who had been wooing Canada hard for the contract, but ultimately lost it out. So to tell us more, I'm joined now by Monocle's contributing editor and host of the Foreign Desk, Andrew Muller. Good morning.
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Yossi Meckelberg
Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
So why does 12, why does Canada need 12 submarines?
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Mark Carney
Well, as any attendee of any pub quiz knows, Canada has the world's longest coastline, so there is that. Canada also has security concerns in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. So at some, in some respects, this was a choice between those two, between Korea, Korea and Germany. And also Canada has, like many Western countries, underachieved significantly as a defense power since the end of the Cold War. It's only just got itself back over that 2% threshold of GDP that NATO members are supposed to spend on defense. So I think that this is, this is Canada bringing itself back up to speed. And for that reason, it possibly, possibly looks more dramatic than maybe it actually is.
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Emma Nelson
Let's actually talk a little bit about the GDP contribution by the Canadians. Mark Carney, in his announcement of the Thyssenkrupp deal, said the following Tonight, Minister
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Mark Carney
of National Defence and I will fly to Ankara for the NATO summit. Canada will arrive in a position to help lead the alliance. Our fiscal framework has already budgeted to achieve 4% of GDP in total defence spending by the end of this decade, ahead of NATO's 2035 timetable. That includes, as I said, provisioning for the costs of these submarines.
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Emma Nelson
That's quite an amazing statement, isn't it, from the Canadian Prime Minister, not least to sort of say, look, we're going to be ahead of everybody else in terms of our contribution to defence spending. So, you know, we've done our sums. But also Canada arriving in a position to help lead the alliance. I Mean, where does this submarine deal or more generally position Canada as a military power?
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Mark Carney
As a pretty serious one. I mean, obviously other countries are stocking up on submarines and other kit as well. But if all these submarines were delivered tomorrow, which they won't be, obviously Canada would, I think, rank as the world's 9th or 10th largest operator of submarines. But again, this is kind of Canada reverting to an old tradition. There was a time when Canada was an extremely serious naval power. Shortly after World War II, the Royal Canadian Navy had the world's third biggest surface fleet. So Canada had not just the Cold War, but the post Cold War decades of thinking, well, we don't really have any threats, we're protected by coastline and obviously we could never have any imaginable problem, problems with our neighbour to the south. And that has all been obviously somewhat upended.
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Emma Nelson
Tell us a little bit more about the decision to buy German over South Korea. I mean, is this a surprise?
- [34:13]
Mark Carney
It kind of was. I think there'd been a lot of. The South Korean defense sector has been roaring ahead to the extent these last few years that there was kind of an assumption that they only need to turn up and they just get everybody's contract contracts. I mean, for example, the, the massive rearmament being undertaken by Poland at the moment is, has substantially benefited South Korea. It's South Korean companies that are supplying Poland with tanks, with fighter aircraft, with, with howitzers and other artillery. And, and Hanwha Ocean made a huge, huge play for this. They, they, they did a publicity stunt just a few weeks ago. They sent one of the South Korean or the Republic of Korea's Navy submarines, submarines all the way across the Pacific from Jinhe to Victoria and British Columbia. The first time a South Korean submarine had crossed the Pacific, and that was a Hanwha Oceans boat, and that was South Korea saying, look, this is what we can do. We can give you command of this entire ocean. And the scale of what this means to Hanwha Ocean, for example, is demonstrated by the fact that their shares dropped by 23% yesterday after Canada's decision was confirmed as to why the German. I mean, Carney was very clear on saying that it was no reflection on the product that Hanwha Ocean had offered, that either submarine would have done fine. But again, I think a lot of this goes back to that choice between Atlantic or Pacific Asia or Europe. And Canada, like all of Europe, has had a bit of a jolt in recent years due to the behavior of the United States States. Canada, I think, has understood that it needs to be closer to Europe because they have combined interests in the Arctic as well. This does give, it will give the Royal Canadian Navy in terms of its submarines, that magic word interoperability, which is something that NATO types are more and more excited about, this meaning that everybody can share components, knowledge and so on. And it just means that Canada is more integrated into NATO yet more integrated into NATO and yet more integrated into Europe, which I think it has come to see in the last year and a bit especially as perhaps more of a natural partner in a lot of respects than the United States.
- [36:34]
Emma Nelson
And indeed, I mean, when we see Canada being pushed into Europe, as you say, it's militarily, it's useful, but politically this is key for both Canada, but also for Europe as well, to know that they have friends on the other side of the Atlantic. Atlantic?
- [36:47]
Mark Carney
Oh, absolutely. I mean, a lot of this I think it can be very much framed in Mark Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in forum in Davos earlier this year, which I think among the non American NATO powers has rather become 2026 as set text. And this is the idea of middle powers, as he put it, and that these countries can stand up for themselves, should stand up for themselves, and at this point really have to stand up for them. I think this is very possibly a decision that came down to just what felt right, what felt natural. And I think for Canada in its present state, I think knitting itself closer into Europe just possibly felt like the obvious decision.
- [37:36]
Emma Nelson
Finally, let's talk a little bit about the bet that it's making in terms of. You mentioned the fact that it has a sizable coastline, so it needs, it needs a lot of submarines. But what kind of a bet is it making when it comes to the kind of military equipment that it is getting here? And the importance of uncrewed systems is enormous nowadays.
- [37:58]
Mark Carney
I mean, it is. I mean it is an enormous bet. Nobody has yet put an absolutely conclusive figure on what this will cost, but all the estimates run into the tens of billions of dollars. Notwithstanding that, Carney has been very clear that 100% of the spend will be matched by economic benefits to Canada. He's claiming over the lifetime of this project there will be a hundred thousand jobs. CBC this morning is reporting estimates of an 86 billion dollar boost to the economy. It's almost like Canada's trying to argue that it's fine, these things will pay for themselves. But it is a big bet because the first one of these boats will not be in the water for possibly another decade from Right now, now. And who knows what defence technology will look like a decade from now. If you talk to anybody involved in drones, uncrewed systems of any kind, they will all tell you that generations, or what used to be thought of as generations of development are occurring in matters of weeks or months. But the thing that one of the reasons for spending big on defence is that nobody knows, knows actually what the future holds. And there is also, I think, in terms of big purchases like this, and there's a lot of argument going on about other kinds of defence kit as well, like, are we still going to need it in 10 years? And this applies to things like fighter aircraft, capital, naval ships, all of which are hugely expensive, obviously, and potentially hugely vulnerable. But there is also always a sort of theatrical aspect to definitely defense procurement. If you put, for example, an aircraft carrier in the water, you're demonstrating to the world that we're the kind of country that puts an aircraft carrier in the water. And if you, if you order a substantial fleet of new submarines. And again, in terms of catching up, Canada's current submarine component consists of four absolutely knackered antiques they bought secondhand from the Royal Navy nearly 30 years ago ago. This is a serious declaration of intent.
- [40:06]
Emma Nelson
Andrew Muller, thank you so much for joining us on the Globalist here with Monocle Radio. Some media news now and to a shakeup in the British television landscape. Sky, which is owned by Comcast, has agreed to buy the broadcast channels and streaming service of ITV. It's a deal worthwhile, 1.9 billion euros. And Sky's chief executive, Dana Strong, has called the deal a defining moment in British broadcasting. On Monocle's torn, Thomas Waterhouse caught up with Scott Bryan, the TV critic and media contributor for Monocle, the Guardian and the New York Times. And Scott began by explaining just what has been agreed.
- [40:51]
Scott Bryan
So, essentially, sky has announced a 1.6 billion takeover of ITV's broadcasting arm. I think it's sort of worthwhile pointing out that, that ITV is a very, very large company. Only broadcast TV in terms of their streaming platform, itvx, as well as their linear channels. They also make TV shows. It's a very large production company called ITV Studios. ITV Studios is not included in this sale. Essentially, ITV is now going to be under sky, who are owned by Comcast. Sky are purchasing sort of their linear, their very traditional TV channels as well as their streaming platform, which sort of brings to the end of the a sort of very large independent sort of TV company that stretches right back to TV's infancy right back in the 1950s and now I think brings it under the, the large control of a very large American media company.
- [41:50]
Mark Carney
Scott, just on that point, for those who don't know, what does ITV mean historically for the average UK household? ITV has of course been broadcasting for seven decades, reads in the uk.
- [42:02]
Scott Bryan
It has, I mean, ITV sort of changed throughout that period. I mean, I think many people in the UK will know its programs, combination streets, reality shows such as I'm A Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here, Love Island. It's, it's also as a major public service broadcaster, you know, one of the large channels where you would watch big football fixtures, including the World cup at the moment. It sort of changed throughout its run. It used to be made up of different companies, all stretched across the UK under sort of essentially a big rival to the BBC. And a lot of the shows from this channel would be exported around the world. Many crime dramas, you know, it used to be a license to print money. Know, a lot of these companies were absolutely huge. And then I think ITV has, you know, still been a major contributor to British TV and still provides a lot of programs and jobs. But it is fair to say that it has been finding it hard, harder, like all sort of TV channels, just from the simple rise of, of streaming services as well as in the 90s and the rise of satellite and cable by Sky. And of course now sky is a sort of cable, is a satellite provider that's now purchased ITV and I think 1.8, 1.6 billion is, is a large number, no doubt about that. But I think a sale to an American company, you know, 10 years ago would have been, been unthinkable just because ITV would have been so much more valuable. Whilst I think now it's sort of seen to be maybe in the light of the massive acceleration of streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon, much more affordable for it to happen. But also for sky also trying to navigate a big rival from streaming as well. It's, it's about, I think, sky needing ITV as much as ITV needs Sky.
- [43:57]
Mark Carney
Scott, you mentioned there the threat posed by these big media giants in the us, the likes of Netflix and other streaming services. How real is that threat?
- [44:06]
Scott Bryan
Well, I think it's, it's actually subsided a little bit from where we were a few years ago. I think a few years ago the rise of streaming services felt unstoppable. Netflix, Amazon Prime Video particularly, you know, were able to become commonplace in millions and millions of households. But I think because of the cost of living crisis and there's been so many launches of different streaming platforms as well as the relatively strong performance of of the likes of the See, I think streaming services have been stagnating and you might be seeing a lot more advertising on those platforms and it's purely because the consumers can't really pay anymore or aren't willing to pay any more than they already do. But at the same time, channels like ITV have been still struggling just simply because they're legacy businesses. They have public service obligations, they have to fulfill so many hours of public service broadcasting in their prime time schedules and those viewerships have been decreasing in recent years because our habits have changed. We're now maybe going on to a streaming service in the evening or maybe catching up on a catch up player such as ITVX or BBC I player than watching live TV during the evening with the exception of live sport. So I think know for sky they have been having a decline of I think people paying maybe 60, 70 pound a month packages. So for ITV it allows them to potentially actually stay nimble, have a lot more visibility for some of their most popular programs. They've recently had Saturday Night Live on their platform that's been taken over from the us, They've made a UK variation. But also for itv it allows them to really bolster their finances. Sky has said that they're investing still a lot in sort of TV programming and I think also allows sky to use itvx, which is a fairly large sort of catch up provider, but that that's also free. So it allows them to possibly help promote their own sky products and maybe have a bit of synergy between the two. The downside is, you know, potentially quite a few job cuts. It might make the British TV industry just that little bit smaller. And there's also a big question around news because itn, which is a sort of separate news company, also does news programming for rivals including Channel 4 and Channel 45 are now going to be within the same sort of essentially the same company as Sky, Sky News, which is under Comcast. They've said for the time being, for the next few years that they're going to be treated as separate companies. But I think if I was working for either of those two companies, I'd be slightly anxious about you know, possible kind of long term cuts in the future.
- [46:46]
Mark Carney
Now Scott, commercially speaking, this all seems rather straightforward on paper and common sense in many respects, but the deal does need the approval of both regulators and law makers. How easy a road will that be?
- [47:00]
Scott Bryan
I've seen some other TV analysts that are much more focused, much more focused on the financial side saying, reporting that essentially because sky have purchased not the studio's production arm, but around more of maybe the linear TV business side, that it is more likely that it would be signed off by regulatory sort of approvals. I mean, of course we have to also sort of point out that there is a lot of media consolidation happening at the moment with Paramount, that owns Channel 5, being essentially bought by the Ellisons in the US and that has a knock on effect too. I think Ofcom, the regulator as well as other regulation powers will be having quite a lot of scrutiny on this. I guess unions will as well, in case it has a knock on effect on jobs. But sky so far have been clear to say, look, we understand that ITV has regional companies throughout the UK doing regional news. We also know that there are public service obligations that we have to fulfill. We are intending to do that. And if and as why does that even bolster it? I guess it comes down to, you know, firstly, you know, what will the, the long term financial impact will be? Also, will sky be able to fulfill its obligations? I think so. But it also comes down to will they as a company be able to navigate quite choppy waters essentially in the TV industry. A lot of change happening in only a few years and sky is a, you know, fairly nimble, but still a bit of a legacy business in itself, I think. You know, will this help bolster the company, make it grow or will this potentially be another sort of challenge for them and, and make them not as nimble as, as they would want to be?
- [48:44]
Emma Nelson
Scott Bryan there, TV critic and media contributor for Monocle, the Guardian and the New York Times. He was talking to Thomas Wallace Waterhouse. This is the globalist
- [48:55]
UBS Narrator
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- [49:33]
Emma Nelson
Time for some urbanism news. Joining us from Lisbon is Monocle senior foreign correspondent and urbanism expert Carlos Rebelo. Good morning, Carlotta.
- [49:42]
Carlos Rebelo
Good morning, Emma.
- [49:43]
Emma Nelson
How's Lisbon looking today?
- [49:45]
Carlos Rebelo
Well, it's starting to get much cooler, which I think brings us straight to our first story that I want to bring to you today, which is the fact that the French Senate will be debating today, it's much anticipated housing bill. Now you will remember the news all over the past two weeks of the extreme temperatures felt in Europe, particularly in France. And one of the big things that of this housing bill was the fact that it didn't include initially anything to do with adapting homes to extreme weather. Well now the French Senate is expected to readdress that with a last minute amendment to on purpose to tackle this, to ensure that when we are debating housing and what needs to be done to face the housing crisis, that we're also implementing measures to adapt home homes to be able to cope with extreme heat, which as we know is more likely to become the norm than not.
- [50:40]
Emma Nelson
And how do they actually go about wholesaling, adapting houses and our homes to climate change? It's one of those things that the construction materials need to be different, the planning, the shapes need to be different, the locations need to be different. And also France already has a considerable housing stock already which is probably very inefficient, efficient.
- [50:59]
Carlos Rebelo
Well, that is precisely the problem Emma, is the fact that the majority of houses is really poorly insulated. So it lets the heat in and then it gets stuck. The translation is roughly something like a thermal kettle that traps the heat inside. Now there was a proposal as well in this housing bill when it was initially put forward by the government that it wants to bring back energy, poison poor homes into the rental market with the, the, this provision that if landlords agree to make them energy efficient and upgrade them, then they can rent them. So there are big incentives to tackle this and hopefully that means unlocking more housing that is, you know, able to sustain these temperatures and actually be inhabitable, habitable.
- [51:48]
Emma Nelson
And it's one of those decisions that often has to be made locally. So if you have, have a national housing bill, that is one thing. But individual regions and towns need to work out what works for them, don't they?
- [52:02]
Carlos Rebelo
Absolutely. But I think it's actually important for both of those to work in tandem because often when we see similar moves just at a municipal level, yes, that unlocks some differences for that particular area. But it's only when, when a national bill or a national mandate is put in place that then you get, you know, the, the big money, you get companies to change policies, you get funds unlocked and actually allows this to be scaled up much quicker. So actually having this at a national level could help propel this transformation much quicker. Hopefully in time, at least for the beginning of it. In time for next summer.
- [52:41]
Emma Nelson
A quick look finally at the World World Monuments Fund and its Irreplaceable America list. These are the 10 most endangered buildings. Fill us in on those.
- [52:49]
Carlos Rebelo
Yes. So the World Monuments Fund, which is a non profit organization that looks precisely at our built environment heritage. To mark the 250th anniversary of the United States released this list, Irreplaceable America. So it's 10 buildings that have shaped the US's unique history and the importance of preserving these places. And it's just fantastic to read the list and see some of them are derelict, complete ruins and you know, the case for advocating for them, like New York Smallpox hospital in Roosevelt Island. But then others are, have just been neglected. One of them is the City hall in Dallas, which is this incredible work of civic architecture and modernism in America which, you know, has been stuck in terms of getting rehabilitated and there's a risk of abandonment or even of it being demolished. And these are just two out of these 10. And it's just a really interesting list to go through and see that this of course, is an effort to try to preserve them and save them for, from demolition. And just a special mention at the end for not for a building, but for a special recognition to the National Park System, which as we've heard over the past year has been a bit under threat. And this was the way of the jury to, you know, show and recognize the National Park System's role in shaping some of these preservation standards in its 403 sites across the country.
- [54:20]
Emma Nelson
Indeed, I mean, very briefly, it says for many decades the systems face mounting pressures, including staffing reductions and chronic underfunding. That happens absolutely everywhere, doesn't it? But the National Park System is absolutely crucial to an American capacity to be breathe.
- [54:34]
Carlos Rebelo
Absolutely. And you know, it's important that you, the park system continues to be protected. It's not just about, of course the, the majority of it is about the nature and the biodiversity and as you say, being this lung for the, the nation and the world. But it's also back to this idea of, you know, it really defines the American experience. And they, it, they have the parks, the national parks have this cultural and symbolic value that cannot be, you know, understated. And what is interesting about this list, it's that it all came from a nationwide open call for nominations. So 75 sites were nominated in total and they narrowed it down to this list. So it would be interesting to see actually the full long list and because there's so many buildings under threat.
- [55:25]
Emma Nelson
Carlos, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Lisbon. That's Monocle, senior foreign correspondent there. You're listening to the Globalist. We have a few minutes to check in with our team in Abu Dhabi. We're holding an event in collaboration with the Department of Culture and Tourism there. Monocle senior correspondent Fernanda Agosta Pacheco is standing by. Good morning, Faye.
- [55:50]
Fernanda Agosta Pacheco
Good morning. From very sunny Abu Dhabi.
- [55:52]
Emma Nelson
I imagine it might be quite sunny where you are. What's happening where you are?
- [55:55]
Fernanda Agosta Pacheco
7 degrees. So basically we had such a great event yesterday was the launch of the July August issue, of course, as you said, in partnership as well with the Department of Culture and Tourism, Abu Dhabi. But what I loved about the event, I mean, we were looking at the RSVPs. I mean, I think it was over 100 people there. I loved the mix of people. So every, every. Because I was wearing a badge, a Monaco badge, of course. So everybody knew I worked for Monaco. And there were so many excited, you know, from lawyers to artists, you know, to kind of CEOs. It was really, really an impressive event. But can I tell you something? The location was so special because it was at a bar inside the Four Seasons. You know, I love a hotel bar, but you know, they're kind of serious. Not that one. It's called Saikin Do. It's like, it's very 70s inspired when you look at the design. And it's a joint Japanese listening bar. I thought it was super, super interesting. Emma, next time you come to Abu Dhabi, we have to go to Saikindo together.
- [56:56]
Emma Nelson
Did you actually do any Japanese listening or did you just have lots of silly fun?
- [57:00]
Fernanda Agosta Pacheco
There was some Japanese city pop and I was talking to the DJ Gabriel as well, and I was asking, are you gonna play some Brazilian music? Of course he did, you know. So the vibes are very much in the kind of Monaco playlist style, you know. So I think it kind of fitted the evening so well, just, just in
- [57:18]
Emma Nelson
your, your natural environment. Fernando, what are you doing later on today after you've recovered from your. From our wonderful evening last night?
- [57:26]
Fernanda Agosta Pacheco
Well, straight after our conversation, I'm getting a cab. I'm very excited for this. Of course. I'm the host of the Stack. I'm interested about media editors. So I met at the party Mina Al Oraibi. She's the editor in chief of the national, which is a newspaper that I respect a lot. And I was telling Mina that I came across they have a luxury magazine as well with the newspaper TN magazine. I was so impressed with it. So we had a chat. So now I'm going to meet her, have a little conversation with her for the Stack and, and she was very excited. She wanted to introduce me to her co chair editor because of course, I was asking questions, how is the music scene here? Who are the artists that come here? And, and by the way, I know that the celebrities, when they come to Abu Dhabi, they do have a, a little drink there at Saikindo, because, you know, it's very charming, it's quite cozy. But yeah, that's my plans straight after our chat here.
- [58:21]
Emma Nelson
Fernanda Aga Sipasheko having a very productive time in Abu Dhabi. Thank you so much for joining us on the line. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers, Chris Chermack, Laura Kramer and Thomas Waterhouse. Our researcher is Josefina Gomez and our studio manager was Lily Austin. After the headlines. More music on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London. The Globe List is back at the same time tomorrow. Hope you can join me for that if you can. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thanks for listening.
- [58:55]
Yossi Meckelberg
It.
- [59:37]
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