← The Globalist
Loading summary
Transcript116 lines
- [00:04]
A
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 11 February 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist, in association with Up. Hello, this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, Benjamin Netanyahu has rushed to Washington, hoping to influence any potential deal between the US and Iran. We'll ask what his aims are and if he can achieve them. A plan is being floated to give Ukraine early accession to the EU before full membership is granted. We'll examine how this might work and what the ramifications would likely be, not just for Kyiv, but for the future of the European Union, too. We'll rustle through the day's papers and then we'll head to Turkey, where the Greek Prime Minister is meeting Erdogan. Ostensibly it's about trade, but can these two countries, at loggerheads for years iron out their defence and maritime issues too? Then a roundup of news coming out of the Vatican.
- [01:59]
B
And nobody really understands the cultural issues involved. They're not paying attention to who he really is or what he represents. He's not really the mayor. He's the leader of a social movement and a political movement which has taken on great speed.
- [02:10]
A
An assessment of Zoran Mamdani's first month in office in New York. And finally, we'll head to Milan to join our team covering the Winter Olympics. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Estonia's annual intelligence report says Russia is racing to rebuild its military and to slow Europe's rearmament, even though it does not plan to attack NATO states this year or next. French President Emmanuel Macron says Europe must start acting like a global power in the face of mounting strategic challenges from China, Russia and a shifting US role. And 10 people are dead after a woman opened fire at a high school in western Canada before killing herself in one of the country's deadliest mass casualty attacks in decades. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, Israel's leader, Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington today for his seventh meeting with Donald Trump in a year after bringing forward a visit that had originally been scheduled for later this month. The timing coincides with renewed U. S. Iran diplomacy, which Trump publicly described as very good, raising concern in Jerusalem about the directions the talks might take. There's concern too from Iran who said that Netanyahu's US Visit will have a destructive effect on diplomacy. Well, I'm joined now from Riyadh by Greg Carstrom, who's Middle east correspondent and author of How Long Will Israel the Threat From Within. Greg, it's great to have you back on the program. Tell us more about this decision to bring these talks forward by a week.
- [03:57]
C
Well, I think there are two factors at work there. One of them, as you mentioned, is this concern in Jerusalem about the direction of the negotiations with Iran. I think there's still a lot of skepticism, to be honest, that those talks are going to bear fruit. But when you have Trump speaking, as he did over the weekend, about the possibility of making a nuclear only deal with Iran, an agreement that doesn't address Iran's missile program or its support for regional proxies, I think that that does unnerve the Israeli government. But then I think the other part of it that is sort of being overlooked here is next week Donald Trump is meant to convene a meeting of his so called Board of Peace which is meant to be overseeing the ceasefire in Gaza, talking about reconstruction, post war governance in Gaza. That is not a subject that Netanyahu is keen to discuss. His right wing coalition partners are still unhappy about the ceasefire in Gaza. And so I think he has a political incentive to come now and get the visit out of the way rather than wind up being in Washington when this board is convening to talk about Gaza.
- [05:03]
A
And so what are Netanyahu's red lines? What does he want from the US Regarding Iran?
- [05:09]
C
I think fundamentally they don't want the Americans to make a deal with Iran, or at least any deal that is remotely plausible. This idea of a comprehensive agreement that would see Iran, you know, swear off a nuclear program, a ballistic missile program and its support for militias across the region. A deal like that probably would be acceptable to the Israeli government, but it's almost impossible to see Iran agreeing to those sorts of concessions and then finding a way to make that deal actually verifiable and enforceable. So the sorts of plausible deals that we're talking about that focus more on the nuclear program, that offer Iran sanctions relief, economic help in exchange for concessions around the Nuclear file. That's just not something the Israeli government wants. It thinks Iran is in a very weak position right now because of its losses around the region last year, and then because of the domestic unrest that we've seen. And for the Israelis, the last thing they think America should do is throw the regime a lifeline by giving it an agreement and sanctions relief.
- [06:16]
A
And how much daylight is there between the US and the Israeli stance?
- [06:21]
C
It's very hard to say. I mean, you speak to some people in Washington who will say, we are not going to do a nuclear only deal. We insist on this being a more comprehensive agreement. And if it's not comprehensive, the alternative is a military strike. But then again, Trump seemed to imply over the weekend that he might be okay with a nuclear only deal. I mean, I'm reminded of when we did this last spring, when America and Iran last tried to negotiate a diplomatic agreement. And it seemed like every week the American position shifted. Did they want zero enrichment for Iran's nuclear program? Were they willing to tolerate some enrichment? I mean, literally one week to the next? So I think it's very hard to say what America's red lines actually are in these negotiations that have only just gotten underway a few days ago.
- [07:10]
A
How has Iran reacted to the talks currently going on between Israel and Washington?
- [07:16]
C
They've had a very consistent position, not just in the run up to these talks, but in every diplomatic negotiation with the Americans going back more than 10 years now, which is they are willing to discuss some elements of their nuclear program. They are not willing to discuss missiles or their support for regional proxies. And they've stuck to that line, even though they really are in a much weaker position right now. Their nuclear program, as far as we know, has not enriched a single gram of uranium since last summer, when America targeted its enrichment facilities with airstrikes. Its proxies in the region have been battered by two years of war with Israel. It's facing economic problems at home. Iran is facing environmental problems at home. And yet, despite this very weak position that it seems to be in, it is just not willing, it continues to refuse to negotiate the kind of broader agreement that might unlock American support.
- [08:16]
A
So, I mean, Trump has said that the meetings are going well, but I wonder if Netanyahu's presence in Washington now could scupper any headway made with Iran.
- [08:25]
C
I think it certainly won't help, and it will certainly raise fears on the Iranian side that this is all a ruse, which they have good reason to think, because that's what happened last summer. I Mean, there were negotiations going on right up until the point when America decided to carry out airstrikes. But again, I think whether or not Netanyahu comes to Washington, regardless of the US Israeli dynamic, I think the structural factors at play here are such that it seems very unlikely that we're going to get to an agreement. Trump wants to do it quickly. His patience, as we all know, is limited. His attention span is limited. There's this big American military buildup in the Middle east that can't stay there indefinitely. So he wants to make a deal quickly. The Iranians want a more protracted negotiation only about their nuclear program. It's very hard to see how you resolve those fundamentally different approaches to what they want here.
- [09:23]
A
What leverage does Netanyahu have with Trump?
- [09:28]
C
I'm not sure it's leverage with Trump directly. I think one thing that we have seen throughout Trump's presidency is he tends to listen to the last person who was in the room with him. Right. And I think if the Israelis come and sit around a table with him and make a, you know, convincing case for. For why diplomacy with Iran is a bad idea, and America has Iran on the ropes and it should press its advantage right now. What we've seen in the past is that Trump tends to listen to these things, and there's not really anyone pushing back on the other side. I mean, there are countries in the region, Arab countries, who don't want to see an American strike on Iran, who are working to try and facilitate diplomacy between the US And Iran, but those countries are not friends of this regime. They're also very skeptical about the possibility of a diplomatic agreement. So you don't really have someone, I think, making a compelling case from the other side, arguing that American diplomacy with Iran is this unalloyed. Good.
- [10:32]
A
I wonder, if the US does proceed and manages to clinch a narrower nuclear deal, what options does Israel have then? How might it react?
- [10:42]
C
I think it's very difficult for Israel, if not impossible, to carry out a sort of unilateral strike over the objections of the Trump administration. If the White House makes, even if it's a. A narrow, interim, you know, temporary agreement, and then tells the Israelis we've bought some more time for further diplomacy with Iran, I don't think the Israelis will be in a position to do anything, not just because Netanyahu is worried about upsetting Trump, but because they rely on American support in the aftermath of any strikes that they carry out on Iran, they will rely on the United States to replenish their supply of air defense Interceptors, for example. So they need to be aligned with the Americans as they were last summer when Israel decided to go to war with Iran. So they cannot do it over the objections of the Trump administration.
- [11:34]
A
Greg, thank you very much indeed. That's Greg Karlstrom, Middle east correspondent and author of How Long Will Israel Survive the Threat From Within. Greg was speaking to us from his base in Riyadh. This is the Globalist. Its 911 in Kyiv, 711 here in London. Now Brussels is floating a radical idea to pull Ukraine closer to the European Union fast, possibly embedding membership into a future peace deal. The plan would give Kyiv a seat at the EU table before full membership, reversing the usual accession process as the bloc looks to lock Ukraine into Europe and out of Moscow's orbit. Well, I'm joined now by Ukrainian Julia Jen, who's Monocle's researcher and writer. Julia, many thanks for coming into work and being here in the studio with me, looking very bright and summery in your pink.
- [12:53]
D
I'm getting ready for Valentine's Day.
- [12:55]
A
Oh, that's what it is. Okay, that's a separate discussion. Listen, what exactly is being proposed here and how different is it from the EU's usual enlargement process?
- [13:05]
D
Yes, so this is something Ukraine has kind of struggled a message that Ukraine has struggled to get through to the eu. How many, you know, sacrifices Ukraine has made for EU membership. And here we're seeing the EU as being receptive and saying this is a fast track that we can often. So in effect it's sort of a multi tier. Ukraine would have kind of de facto membership to the eu. They would be, you know, in name an EU member, but they wouldn't have full kind of voting rights, full rights within the bloc. And that would be given to them in tiers. Basically it would be about bringing Ukraine into the fold so that Ukraine could start doing its reforms that it really needs to get done in order to have that full membership. But it would be within the kind of pact, within the protection of the eu, access to funding, kind of access to information much faster, faster than it is now as a sort of, you know, kind of ally state or whatever, as it exists now. And then as it's going through those reforms, as it's making those changes with the EU in tandem, then it gets kind of more and more voting rights, more rights within and more access to funding, I assume, you know, funding for infrastructure, funding for really important public services, and of course the rebuilding effort that we expect.
- [14:14]
A
How much political weight and protection though would partial membership Actually give Ukraine, well.
- [14:21]
D
The kind of the voting rights I guess would kick in later. So it wouldn't have be able to veto important decisions, for example, but it would unlock, as I was saying, funding. But I think for Europeans and for Ukrainians, the psychological aspect of this is really, really important. One of the most striking kind of photographs of the entire war was at the very beginning in 2022 when the full scale invasion began. And it was of a woman who had been, sadly, had passed away because of what had happened to her in without getting too graphic. And in her hand she was holding a key ring and on that keyring there was a flag, there was the EU flag, the blue flag with the stars. And psychologically, EU membership for Ukraine is a lifeline because being pulled into Russia's orbit is something constantly that's been going on since the fall of the Soviet Union. And so being brought into that European fold is so important. But it's very important to see that accession would begin in 2027. That's a date that's been set. Now the date is being agreed on by Ukraine, Europe, the USA and Russia. So even there, there's this feeling that the imperial master still has to say yes to kind of what Ukraine is about to do.
- [15:36]
A
And of course, Hungary could be a problem. If Hungary objects, could Article 7 be used to strip the country of voting rights? And what effect would that have on the eu? It's pretty drastic measure, yes.
- [15:48]
D
So this is a contingency plan. If, for example, in April, so in April in Hungary there will be big presidential elections. I'm sure that's something we're going to be talking about a lot on the radio coming up. And here there's actually a very big chance that Orban will be voted out. Now if that happens, the fresh new face, his political opponent coming in is much more kind of pro Ukrainian and sort of pro EU enlargement and so on and so forth. But if Orban does remain in office, this is a huge bloc and there have been many moments where Orban's veto has been removed or Hungary has somehow at the 11th hour been talked through round to, for example, you know, big tranches of aid going to Ukraine that he's been blocking or his country's diplomats have been blocking. So but this is absolutely something. Now, it's interesting in the political article that outlines five steps to getting Ukraine into the EU, which discusses this issue, that step only comes at the very, very. Even after talkingeven after, for example, options like getting Trump to talk Orban round If Orban is still in office in a few months. So, again, it's interesting, you know, even in that sort of radical statement, the EU is still being very cautious, still looking to Trump, even though Trump, you know, hasn't quite showed his sympathy for what's going on inside the eu.
- [17:13]
A
I wonder if there's a risk that creating different tiers of membership weakens the EU as an institution.
- [17:20]
D
Well, that's definitely the fear. And there's a fear that, you know, this could happen also, because Moldova and Albania, those are two countries that are very closely looking at what's happening with Ukraine now in terms of also being brought into the fold. I think there's a particular risk with Moldova because Moldova, there is a breakaway region within Moldova that Russia controls. And Moldova is particularly vulnerable to Russian military action because they really do have soldiers stationed on their soil and they constantly have these sort of sabotage campaigns, especially during the elections that have happened in the last few years. There is really a fear, and it particularly comes from Berlin, from Germany. They are particularly worried about what this will feel like to other EU members and other EU members potentially feeling resentful that, you know, Ukraine would get access to the EU before it's ready, sort of in inverted commas. But I think there's also an understanding that this really is a critical moment for Ukraine in terms of the war, in terms of cycling psychological support. Right now, we're seeing the EU as really buckling down on support in terms of generators, heat generators, because Ukrainians are going through a very isolating winter of energy strikes, no electricity in their homes. Psychologically, the damage is very big there. But again, this is all wrapped up in, and it's so important, I think, to emphasize this, this is all wrapped up in the U.S. s agreement, Russia's agreement, any peace deal that is potentially going to be reached between Russia, Ukraine, with the US's negotiat, sort of between them. And that is not something that Ukrainians really see happening soon. It's a very murky future. And the latest lines, in fact, are from Ukraine that just, you know, in the last few hours that Zelenskyy is going to announce on the 24th of February, the four year anniversary of the war, that he will be holding elections and a referendum on any peace deal. This is kind of just the latest breaking news that we're having in here. So the future is very difficult. You know, the idea that presidential elections can be held in a country at war where, you know, so many of your citizens on the front line or so many of your citizens are refugees scattered around the world. It's sort of impossible. It's so impractical. So I think the kind of diplomatic maneuvers are going to be very delicate in the next few months, specifically with bringing the Ukrainian public onside with any potential peace deal.
- [19:45]
A
And when you speak about the peace deal, I wonder if tying Ukraine's EU path into this U. S backed peace deal could. Could change the political calculus in Europe.
- [19:55]
D
I wonder, I wonder. Yes, but I think it's interesting that Russia and the US are happy, you know, when they're so hostile to other things like proper security guarantees or they're so keen for Ukraine to give up its territory. You know, it's very aggressive movements that we're seeing from the US and Russia towards, you know, Ukraine and the issue of its sovereignty. It's interesting that they're happy in a way to give Ukraine EU membership. I wonder if for them it's the sort of soft option when they're kind of looking at broader sort of very cutting economic deals. We know that Zelenskyy has really publicly come out and said, you know, Ukrainian intelligence understands that the US and Russia are talking about grand scale economic plans that actually touch upon Ukrainian sovereignty. And of course we have the issue of the Donbass deal. So I wonder if there are more aggressive things really going on here. Military sort of economic issues going on here and the EU membership perhaps is seen as a soft sort of side of that deal.
- [20:55]
A
Julia, thank you very much indeed. That's Julia Jen, who's a Ukrainian born monocle researcher and writer. And of course we will be following that breaking news story about elections possibly being called in Ukraine. And if anybody wants some background reading or listening to this, there is the latest edition of Meet the Writers in which my guest is Andrei Kirchhoff who is one of the foremost writers of Ukraine where he talks about his country and how culture affects what's happening there now. Still to come in the program, it's just a feeling you can't recreate and it doesn't matter how many times you've done it. I get that feeling every time I walk out. But then I also think like each and every game is totally unique and every athlete's experience is going to be unique. That's Gus Kenworthy, a British freestyle skier on what competing means to him. We'll join our team at the Winter Olympics in Milan. This is the globalist. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office houseview we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights. Delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. 721 here in London. I'm Georgina Godwin coming to you live from Midori House and I'm joined in the studio by Claudine Fry, a partner at Controlled Risks, to have a look through today's newspapers. Claudine, good morning to you.
- [22:41]
E
Good morning.
- [22:42]
A
Just a little aside here, please don't write in. I got lots of messages about how awful my voice sounds and I'm unwell. Stop it, stop it. I'm trying my best.
- [22:52]
E
Oh no, you sound great.
- [22:54]
A
I don't.
- [22:55]
F
Sorry you're unwell.
- [22:56]
A
But listen, it's good to have you here to do the bulk of the talking about our top story here. So you've picked the Guardian talking about the Norway defense chief says Russia could invade to protect nuclear assets. Now, interestingly enough in our headlines we're talking about this new Estonian report which says actually they don't think Russia's going to invade. There doesn't seem to be a consensus on this.
- [23:18]
E
Yes. And actually, well, you know, I think so this is the Guardian report, an interview with the Norwegian army chief. And, and actually, Georgina, the comments that the army chief makes are overall measured. So I think in some ways they might actually align with what we're hearing out of Estonia in some way. So although the Norwegian army chief says they can't, Norway can't exclude the possibility of a land grab from Russia. That's because much of Russia's nuclear arsenal is actually located a very short distance from Norwegian's, Norway's border. In actual fact, overall, he comments on the fact that communication between Norway and Russia is comparatively constructive at the moment. And he says that much of the activity Norway has been detecting by Russia up in the north is actually not as aggressive as what we've seen over in the Baltics, for example, in terms of the kind of incursions of airspace that have been identified by Norwegian authorities. And there has been a sort of a degree of respect for, for the relationship between Russia and Norway, including a treaty that they have which governs the use of the territory of Svalbard, which is part of Norway but which contains a Russian settlement. So actually pretty measured from Norway overall.
- [24:39]
A
Does that surprise you?
- [24:42]
E
I think it's clearly there's a sort of divide within Europe about how to comment on and respond to the threat posed by Russia. And I think there is an intent here to avoid sounding alarmist. I think it's also notable that in an age of expansionism by big powers, we also have the army chief in these comments made with the Guardian criticizing the US and particularly the comments President Trump has made about both Greenland and also the role that allied countries played in Afghanistan many years ago. They really caused a huge amount of offense in countries in Europe, including in the U.K. norway and Denmark. So I think it's a measured response from a country that is one of many caught in the middle between big powers with expansionist ambitions.
- [25:40]
A
Well, let's talk about a big power with expansionist ambitions. That's China. The Japan Times is reporting on China's influence in Bangladesh, saying that after Sheikh Hasina was ousted in 2024, Beijing is really jumping in there, but to take India's place. Really? Really?
- [26:00]
E
That's right. Bangladesh has perennially been sort of caught in the middle. As one of many countries in the region in the subcontinent where China and India have traditionally competed for influence, India has had the upper hand in many respects over the years. But the relationship between India and Bangladesh has been particularly bad over the last year. And that's partly because India is associated with the government which was ousted by youth led protests in 2020. Big day for Bangladesh tomorrow. First election since the ouster of that government and essentially a restoration of democracy. And so there's a lot going on in Bangladesh and there's still a huge amount of frustration among people, particularly young people, about the role that India plays in its politics and its influence over time. But yes, this is also an example of the way geopolitics is having an influence in particular countries. With both India's reputation tough and of course the US Also withdrawing from its interests and engaging with countries around the world, China is moving very rapidly to take advantage of opportunities both in terms of building cultural soft power links, but also investing and has invested heavily into Bangladesh, including into a drone factory, for example, but right across infrastructure and other interests across the economy.
- [27:31]
A
Finally, the New York Times reports on the Secret to Happiness. Is there?
- [27:37]
E
Well, apparently. And the good news is not only is it, I think within, within reach, according to a couple of academics who are just publishing a book called how to Feel Loved that the New York Times reported on yesterday, it's all about connecting and relationships, positive thinking, which includes gratitude and a sense of control in your life. But I think importantly, it's also about, apparently it's also something that we can achieve if we only know how to go about it, which is fundamentally about identifying people you want to feel close to to and listening and being curious about them.
- [28:10]
A
Oh, well, curiosity, I think, is, is, is just the, the, the wellspring of everything, isn't it? As long as you're interested in what people have to say.
- [28:17]
E
That's right. And importantly, if you detect that you're not getting back what you'd like from the person you're trying to build a relationship with and feel loved by, move on and find someone who is going to be as curious as you, in you, as you are in them.
- [28:30]
A
Claudine, thank you very much indeed. That's Claudine Fry, a partner at Control Risks. And this is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Services annual report says Russia is not expected to launch a direct assault on any NATO member in the next year, but is rapidly rebuilding its forces and stockpiling weapons as European countries increase defense spending. The assessment warns Moscow is trying to delay and hinder Europe's rearmament while seeking to soften sanctions by engaging with the new US Administration. French President Emmanuel Macron is urging the European Union to act more assertively on the world stage, calling for joint EU debt instruments to fund defence, clean energy and advanced technology. He says Europe can no longer assume the United States will guarantee its security and must respond to competitive pressures from China and Russia. And a mass shooting at a high school in a remote town in British Columbia, Canada, left 10 people dead, including the attacker, with several others injured. Police say the suspect acted alone and there's no ongoing threat. But the attack has shaken a country where such violence is rare. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. Just coming up to 7:30 here in London. That's 10:30 in Ankara. The Greek prime minister is in Ankara today for talks with President Erdogan as Greece and Turkey look to steady a relationship that's long been tense. The visit is expected to produce announcements on trade and cooperation, but comes with major disputes still unresolved, including maritime borders and defence. Well, I'm joined now by Hannah, Lucinda Smith, Monocle's Istanbul correspondent. Hannah, it's lovely to have you back on the show. What changed to make this visit possible now?
- [31:02]
G
Well, if you cast your mind right back to 2020, the kind of beginning of the pandemic era, that's this dialogue started. What we're seeing today is the sixth in a series of meetings, high level meetings between Greek and Turkish officials. Now they this Dialogue came about because right back in 2020 there was a really serious escalation of the tensions that you mentioned there at the start between Turkey and Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean. Tensions over maritime borders, over rights to gas reserves that have been found in the eastern med. And it nearly came came to conflict. There was an incident in fact where Greek and Turkish ships clipped each other. It got really quite hairy and the negotiations were going through NATO to try and sort that out. Now this is a kind of long running tension between Turkey and Greece. Relations have always been rocky between the two, going right back to the formation of the two countries. But you know, these things go through waves. And what we're seeing at the moment is an attempt really to kind of boost this relationship through trade. This is the one area, I think, where Turkey and Greece can always agree, you know, their neighbors, they have a huge amount of goods trade, but also, you know, sort of crossover in terms of tourism. A lot of tourists will come to Turkey for a holiday, go to Greek islands nearby for a day or two, vice versa. So yeah, this is, this meeting today is very, very much focused around trade. They're wanting to increase the trade volume between them from is around 6.7 billion last year. They want to increase that to around 10 billion. But then the other part of it as well is also geopolitics. Clearly both of these countries are an incredibly sensitive region. Both of them are NATO members, both of them have slightly different relationships, I have to say, with Russia and with Europe as well. But certainly that's going to be on the agenda too.
- [32:51]
A
You talk about NATO, I wonder how much of a stabilizing role NATO plays in this situation.
- [32:57]
G
Yeah, NATO is the stabilising role, particularly in recent years. What's really interesting is if you go back to the start of President Erdo tenure, he was first Prime Minister in Turkey back in 2003. There were some pretty strong kind of back level, back channel connections between members of his party and members of, I would say the sort of, you know, ruling elite in Greece channels that could be gone through. And what happened five years ago that really escalated tensions was those channels were kind of not there anymore. It was left really to NATO to, to do those negotiations. And that, that's for a number of reasons, partly because of that maritime dispute, also because President Ean started openly blatantly using refugees as a kind of weapon against Europe. You might remember in, I think it was again 2020 when he said, you know, I'm going to open the border and let refugees through, let them through. To Greece. So these things really soured relations and, and since that NATO has been destabilized factor in relations between Ankara and Athens.
- [33:58]
A
So as you say, I mean, ostensibly this is about trade. What exactly are they trying to achieve? What would come out of it if they did firm up closer trade ties?
- [34:11]
G
Yeah, well, certainly, I think it's all about confidence building. And what's really, really interesting in the years that I've covered both countries is that these things can be the basis then for kind of higher level diplomatic relations. What I found between Turkey and Greece is it's always at the kind of low level and at the business level that really they do get on. And particularly when you look at things like, you know, shared heritage, they are for example, absolutely united on the issue of the Parthenon marbles, which are currently in the British Museum. You know, both countries, Ankara absolutely backs Athens in that dispute. So again, I, I think, you know, it's not just about the kind of, you know, the trade in itself. It's all also what it can do to kind of build relations at a foundational level between the two.
- [34:59]
A
So do you think that these tricky issues, maritime borders, defense issues, particularly airspace violations and military incidents, will actually be discussed and what would progress look like on that front?
- [35:12]
G
They will be discussed, absolutely. You know, this is an issue that doesn't go away just by nature of geography. If you look at how close some of the Greek islands are to the Turkish coast, the closest one is like a kilometer away. And so when it comes to, you know, the drawing maritime borders, there are always going to be disputes. Also, you know, anyone who's been to those, you know, really eastern Greek islands or to the Turkish coast might have noticed that you quite often get fly pasts by the either side's F16 jets. You know, they're constantly doing these mock dog fights. These aren't going to go away. The aim is to stop it boiling over into full on escalation, as nearly happened five years ago. I think the other really key thing to mention here is that there's been a kind of geopolitical shift as well with Donald Trump, Trump coming into the White House under Joe Biden's presidency. Joe Biden's White House was incredibly pro Hellenic. They were very much on Greece's side and that's far less the case with Trump. He's become quite close to Erdogan in the year that he's been in office. He said some very nice things about him. And I think it's quite clear to Greece that they haven't got this kind of, you know, absolute stalwart behind them in this dispute as they did when. When Joe Biden was in the White House. So I think it's a sort of, you know, many things are changing around Greece and, say, Turkey, the main issues between them will always stay the same, but it's about how they approach them and how they solve them.
- [36:31]
A
And how's the Turkish media covering this there today, this visit?
- [36:35]
G
So, interestingly, you know, the. When we talk about the Turkish media with these kind of things, we should really look at the pro government, the kind of mouthpiece Turkish media. And the interesting thing is they're all being incredibly positive. They're talking about it as, you know, a reset in relations. Even though, as I mentioned at the start, this is, you know, the sixth in a series of meetings. This is not exactly something new. It's really being talked up as if it's, you know, a big step. So I think, certainly from Ankara's side, you know, I think there is big will to. To push this in a new direction.
- [37:05]
A
And looking ahead, what would be the first real test of whether this visit is actually a success or not?
- [37:11]
G
I think the first real test actually will come when something domestic happens in Turkey. Here's the thing about President Erdogan. He's a leader who likes to use foreign crises for his domestic advantage. We've seen this again and again and again in recent years. Whenever he's facing election, whenever he's facing some kind of crisis domestically, he likes to pull international strings. So starting for many years, it was, you know, starting fights with the Kurds, particularly in Syria. We saw three Turkish ground invasions, also over Cyprus as well, and also with Greece. So I think the question will be, if it comes to a point where President Erdogan feels like he has more to gain by reinflaming these tensions with Greece than by keeping relationships on a steady level, then we might see a re. Escalation.
- [37:59]
A
Hannah. Thank you. That's Monocle's Hannah Lucinda Smith there in Istanbul. And this is Monocle Radio. Now let's look to Rome for some papal news. I'm joined by Juliet Lindley, journalist and former Vatican correspondent, who is in our Zurich studio. Good morning to you, Julie. Juliet.
- [38:21]
F
Good morning, Georgina.
- [38:23]
A
I do envy you because, of course, that studio is right by the cafe, isn't it? Have you got a fabulous drink in front of you?
- [38:29]
F
I'm onto my second vegan matcha latte, and I know you don't like matcha, but I just thought I'd make you envious.
- [38:36]
A
Anyway, you know, I have no envy for the vegan part of it either, so.
- [38:39]
G
Exactly.
- [38:41]
A
But let's talk about the Pope, because the Winter Olympics are obviously on at the moment. We've got a fabulous program that covers that every day live from Milan, 9 o', clock, London time. So the. There's a Vatican cultural and spiritual presence at the Games in Milan Cortina.
- [38:59]
F
Exactly. Let me start with a quick question for you, Georgina. So how many athletes from the Vatican City are taking part in the Winter Games?
- [39:07]
A
No idea.
- [39:08]
F
Oh, I thought you were going to say none, which is exactly correct. There are none. I mean, fun fact, the Vatican City has been a member of the ioc, of the International Olympic Committee for the last two years. But no, there are no bobsledding bishops or curling cardinals or ice skating sisters. But yes, the Pope has used this moment to send an open letter, perhaps defining the Church's relationship with sport and of course, emphasizing the values of sport. So we know that Pope Leo is an avid tennis player. He met sinner at the Vatican, just like earlier last year, and he's a huge fan of the Chicago White Sox, the baseball team. So he highlights particularly the importance of sports, centering on the dignity of people, on relationships with others, whether it's your adversary, whether it's your teammates, the importance of solidarity, fraternity and peace as core values of sport. And he says, be careful of making stadiums into your cathedrals or seeing athletes as your saviors. So he's chosen this moment to sort of bring into. To combine Catholicism's core values and link them to sport. And he says, be careful of focusing excessively on the monetary that success in sport can bring. And now here's a detail that I don't know if you knew this, I wasn't quite clear on this. So you know how there's the Olympic flame that travels from one host city to another. So there's also a unique wooden cross that ever since the London Olympics, which were back in 2012, which I know you remember them well, ever since then, there's been a wooden cross that, like the flame, gets passed on to different host cities and it stays for the. For the duration of each Olympic Games in one of the. So the Basilica of San Babila, the very well known one in Milan for these Olympics, is the Church of Athletes. And they say Mass in different languages for. I mean, athletes can go there, but also just the visitors to the city, the fans, that gives them a point of reference, if you want, for a moment of spirituality.
- [41:17]
A
So there's an article here which tells us that what Leo is saying is really synthesizing papal statements made over the past 150 years and basically formulating a Vatican policy on sports.
- [41:31]
F
Don't you love that? Exactly. But this particular open letter tradition that dates back to Saint Pope John Paul II. So less than 150 years ago, but there has been a strong tradition of sort of combining the essence of sport and religion into one. And let's not forget that it was back in 2004 that the Vatican actually, actually set up a office for church and sport. And at the beginning, people were not even really clear what that meant. I mean, as we said before, it's not like they're fielding athletes for the Olympics, but there is a. There is something to be said for the. For the core values of each.
- [42:09]
A
Now, as you mentioned, he is a fan of the Chicago White Sox, but he's unlikely to see them play at home anytime soon. He's not going to travel to the US Apparently.
- [42:20]
D
Exactly.
- [42:20]
F
This is interesting because it's not often that the Vatican will put out an outright denial. So this is history's first American Pope. Great fan of the White Sox, but also this is a moment in history when, perhaps more than ever, it's so key that there is an American Pope at a time when America is flexing its geopolitical muscle in so many different ways. And so there have been many rumors, rumors that the Pope is going to go to the US it's such a tradition for pontiffs to choose their home country as one of their first key international trips. Pope John Paul II went to Poland. Pope Ratzinger, Pope Benedict went to Germany. But the Vatican's press secretary, Matteo Bruni, clarified to reporters just 48 hours ago, Georgina. That there is no scheduled trip planned this year, even though US leaders have repeatedly invited him, even though it's a 250th anniversary celebration. So this is quite poignant. I mean, I think he's making a very strong statement here by choosing not to go. As we know, he's been quite critical of the administration's harsh immigration enforcement. He's called it inhumane. He's called it extremely disrespectful. Numerous bishops of his have come out very clearly calling on the United States to find its moral compass again in international relations as well as in domestic relations. So this is interesting that he's choosing not to go there. But where is he going to be going? Georgina? I know that that's what you're wondering. Well, he's confirmed to be going to Angola and Equatorial guinea this year, possibly to Algeria too. He's an Augustinian and Algeria has close ties to St. Augustine, and he's very keen to promote Christian Muslim dialogue and very keen to put the spotlight on Africa, where there is of course a growing Catholic community there, and then possibly Spain in the summer and possibly Peru in November December. The Peru's foreign minister has said that the Pope has accepted an invitation. It hasn't been absolutely confirmed, but that's his other passport. He has an American passport, but we do remember that he has a Peruvian passport and that trip may well take place this year.
- [44:27]
A
Georgina Juliet, thank you very much indeed. That's Juliet Lindley, a journalist and former Vatican correspondent, having her vegan matcha latte latte in our Zurich studio and cafe right now. This is the Globalist on Martin Radio, iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies, bridging human expertise, expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft.
- [45:25]
D
Now.
- [45:25]
A
Zoran Mandani's election as mayor of New York last November was hailed as a victory for the Democratic Socialists of America, the da, the Democratic Party's left wing, as the mayor faces criticism for his handling of city services during a bitter cold snap. Monocle's contributor Charlie Bell sent us this dispatch from New York unpacking Mamdani's first month in office. People have been betrayed by the established order, but in our administrative it was.
- [45:54]
H
A historically cold day On Mayor Mandani's inauguration last month, it was all also the hottest ticket in town. For his adoring audience, this was a new political dawn after an extraordinary campaign, the triumph of a socialist populist with a winning smile and eye catching posts.
- [46:12]
A
We will replace the frigidity of rugged.
- [46:15]
B
Individualism with the warmth of collectivism.
- [46:17]
H
He's getting reminded of his choice of words after more than a week of sub zero temperatures has left mounds of unmelted snow and rubbish scarring the snow city streets. Sixteen people died of hypothermia. But this cold snap is just the beginning of his challenges. Wealthy and powerful forces in the city, in the nation, and even within the Democratic Party itself are plotting to make his life as difficult as possible. One man who is steeped in New York politics and the Democratic Party is Hank Sheinkopf. He is a veteran political campaigner and strategic and served in the Clinton White House. He sees parallels from the past.
- [46:57]
B
And the first time I ever worked on a campaign was 30 bucks a week in 1969. You had a demographic shift which was highly pronounced. You had a set of social conditions that were difficult for many people. You had a new bright face. In that case, Lindsay was young and dynamic. Why is this different from Zohan Mandami? It's not. It is very much alike. Whenever you have these gigantic economic and demographic shifts, you have new kinds of candidates, and they come up and they tend to dominate the argument, and they become more populist. They talk a great deal about affordability, but ultimately they accomplish very little, except they have a particular other agenda.
- [47:32]
H
For Hank, Mandani's agenda is the takeover of the Democratic Party. And he doesn't think much of his supporters.
- [47:39]
B
Nobody really understands the cultural issues involved. They're not paying attention to who he really is or what he represents. He's not really the mayor. He's the leader of a social movement and a political movement which has taken on great speed. This is a hostile takeover of the Democratic Party because the Democratic Party has become fat and lazy. And if you look at the people that are involved in the Mamdani movement, which is the Democratic Socials of America, most of them have never had a tough day. This is the most pampered generation in the history of mankind. This battle is one the Democrats today is their structured king. Why? Because they have no center. And they've diversified their coalition in a way that makes it impossible for them to be any consistent.
- [48:20]
H
Hank is not only pessimistic about the Democratic Party's future as a rabbi, he feels Mandani's views about Israel destroy his claims to be a champion of equality for all.
- [48:33]
B
He has a bully pulpit in the largest city in America, and he has the capacity to do what already done, which is to stand by while houses of worship have been assaulted. Jews are not welcome in this administration overall, you know. So this idea that somehow this administration seeks to create comity for all is a lie, because that's not its interest. His entire career has been obsessed with one thing, wiping Israel off the map.
- [48:59]
H
But fellow Democrats are the least of the mayor's problems. Despite a surprisingly warm meeting meeting with Donald Trump in the White House, the Trump administration is keen to frustrate him as much as possible. Last week, the federal Office of Transportation threatened to remove public funding from any city that ran free bus services, one of Mandani's flagship policies. President Trump is busy threatening huge infrastructure funding to the city. Unless Penn Station and dulles Airport in D.C. are Revolution named in his honor. But what do his supporters think of. Eddie Borges is a comms professional and writer who has worked across New York City government.
- [49:39]
B
I was very excited about Mondami's election.
- [49:42]
A
To see someone who can say, I'm.
- [49:45]
B
A socialist, democratic socialist, and run in New York and be taken seriously and bringing the type of numbers we haven't seen in New York since 1970 to.
- [49:52]
A
An election race was amazing.
- [49:54]
B
This new DSA is speaking a new American English about the issues we care about. I went to the rally they had in Forest Hills and I've covered politics for the Daily News, for the Village.
- [50:03]
A
Voice, for the New York observer, and I'd never seen a type of rally.
- [50:06]
B
Like this in New York, ever. I had tears in my eyes because I never thought we can return to a position where we can have people running for office who feel that health care, child care, these are human rights.
- [50:18]
H
Now, some people see Mandani as, as leader of a takeover by the progressive left of the Democrats, and they fear that. What would you say to that?
- [50:30]
A
Of course, the people who live well.
- [50:33]
B
In the status quo, of course they're going to be scared of that because it's the revolution. We're in a civil war within our own party. And the left is slowly winning in places like this. People saying, oh, the left is going too far. Northern arc probably just, just begun.
- [50:48]
H
For Eddy, any criticism of the mayor's administration for naivety and lack of experience is preferable to the corruption of what came before.
- [50:56]
B
No one in, in the Mandami administration is looking to shake down contractors for money like they did in the Adams administration. You don't have those people in this administration. You have a lot of young idealists. And you know, it's progress, not perfection. I think they're going to do good things.
- [51:15]
H
Monday morning saw Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor, joining the chorus of right wing criticism of Mandani's handling of New York snow. But as ice demands, the city hands over more than 7,000 criminal illegal aliens. And Mayor Mandani responds by issuing an executive order reaffirming the city's sanctuary status. Get ready for more, more serious conflict to come.
- [51:41]
A
That was Monocle contributor Charlie Bell in New York. This is the Globalist. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. And we are going to check in now with the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics. So I'm joined down the line from Milan by our deputy head of radio, Tom Webb. Good Morning to you, Tom.
- [52:05]
I
Good morning, Georgina. How are we doing?
- [52:07]
A
Extremely well. Can you just give me a paint a little picture of where you are and where what it's like I'm going.
- [52:13]
I
To do this every morning and I hope we don't bore you because we are on the 47th floor here in City life in Milan. And I cannot tell you that the sunrise that we're seeing there is a thin envelope between cloud and mountain and it's just lit up golden over the city. We are in Allianz Tower. We've built a little pop up radio studio and we're hosting live radio throughout the Winter Games.
- [52:35]
A
What fun. Now you're going to tell me about the cauldron and I don't know what that is. I'm sort of envisaging you and Ed Stocker and Steph Chunk perhaps dancing around a bubbling pot. But I believe it's not that.
- [52:47]
I
The cauldron is where the flame lives. It's lit and then it's put there. And in previous Olympics it is like a cauldron. It's this huge ball of flame. However, it's like a tiny little oven here in Milan, wrapped inside what people call the Eye of Sauron. It's underneath the Arch of Peace. And whoever saw the opening ceremony saw this big metal frame which expands and contracts and the public get to view it. And it's really nice, it's very open, people walk past it all the time. But there are special free nightly performances from 1800 each night, each hour. And it's a three minute performance. It is a song with light and expansion and contraction. And I was very fortunate to have a very private tour from Roberto Caciapaglia, who composed a song called Future, which is just magnificent. He also composed the sounds to the closing ceremony. And of course Marco Balich, who was the artistic director behind the opening games. And he told me all about the inspiration to the frame, the fact that the Spanish occupation in the 1500s inspired some of the movement and it is a really special thing to see. If you are in the city, go on down.
- [53:57]
A
Absolutely. It sounds amazing. Now the houses of the Games tell us more.
- [54:02]
I
Now for those listening to our coverage in Davos would know about the houses, which is countries and brands coming together to a location offering an insight to their culture. It's a soft power tool. And the big house that everyone's talking about here in Milan is career house. And they've taken up a hotel and inside it the public can go. If you register, it's completely blown up here. I mean, everyone's talking about it is sold out now. But inside side are K Beauty stands, K Pop stands. K Beauty is huge in Milan, and this is all about the makeups and the latest trends, and you can take selfies there. I went to Ice House, which is the International Skating Union's house. They're buying the figure skating. They've got their first house this year. And believe it or not, it's in collaboration with Labubu, the keychain with the sharp teeth. Because I visited it. I did actually, actually end up being given my very first Labubu, which I'm wearing out here with pride.
- [54:58]
A
I'm sure you're cherishing it, aren't you?
- [55:02]
I
No, I'm not taking it out the box because apparently the Olympic ones are worth quite a lot of money.
- [55:06]
A
Okay, ebay, here we come. That sounds exciting, though. So what other nationalities or houses do we have on display?
- [55:14]
I
So the Winter Games, the tickets are very, very high. It is a little bit inaccessible, some people, which means brands have got a big opportunity to exploit the interest. And Airbnb are one of those. They've built Casa Airbnb. They're one of the big partners this year. And inside, they're offering experiences to the public. If you're staying with Airbnb in Venice, for example, you can spend 30 pounds and someone will take you around. If you're in Milan, you can spend £30 and Gus Kenworthy will take you shopping. I didn't do that, but I did bump into Gus Kenworthy. He is Team GB's skier. You may have seen him in the news for his dirty ice protest, or should I say yellow protest in the snow. I spoke to him about competing for the fourth time and what this Games offers something different.
- [56:02]
A
I mean, I think the experience for an athlete's, like, got similarities game to game. I think, like that feeling you get walking into the opening ceremony and seeing the rings and wearing. Wearing your country's uniform with your teammates. Like, it's just a feeling you can't recreate. And it doesn't matter how many times you've done it. I get that feeling every time I walk out. But then I also think, like, each and every Games is totally unique, and every athlete's experience is going to be unique. Especially here, where we have, like, Milan and Cortina and Lavino and like these different villages, I think that they each kind of bring a different vibe.
- [56:34]
C
And so an athlete's experience here in.
- [56:36]
A
The city might be different than up in the mountains, but I feel like that's kind of the beautiful thing. And the more Olympics you go to, the more different experiences you get. Well, that's Gus Kenworthy and he is a freestyle skier competing for Team bgb. Although he sounds American there, actually, doesn't he, Tom?
- [56:53]
I
It's a funny thing, isn't it, the Olympics, if you get a little bit old, he's in his mid-30s. You might be able to pick the teams that are more excited about having you. He was born in Chelmsford, Essex, believe it or not. But he was born and raised. He was raised in the U.S. but yeah, we were very excited to have him. Team gb.
- [57:12]
A
Yeah. No, I mean. And he sounds so enthused about this whole sort of idea of being a competitor. Tom, I know you're frighteningly fit. You go to the gym all the time, but have you any desire to take that up a notch to be. To get involved in competitive sport? I can see you in the ring.
- [57:31]
I
I think about it all the time. I was watching the ice skating with Steph and we both decided that even if we dedicated as many hours as as we do to Monocle to the ice, we would never, ever be able to do it. But we have been invited to a paddle tournament with other members of the press tomorrow. Steph is literally rubbing her eyes in horror at me across the desk. We are going to be getting into our shorts. We're going to get very European and play. Padel and Team Monocle are going to win.
- [57:56]
A
I am so looking forward to seeing visual evidence of this. Tom Webb in Milan. Thank you very much indeed. And for more of our coverage from the Winter Olympics, do join Monocle in Milan every day this week and Next live at 9, London time. That's 10am in Milan. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Hassan Anderson, Carlotta Rebelo and Angelica Jobson. Our researcher, Annalise Maynard. Studio manager, Elliot Greenfield. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thanks for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner, incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.