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The Globalist
Poland rail blast spotlights Russian sabotage in Europe and Zelensky goes to Turkey
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UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why, for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Vincent McEvin
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 19 November 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London, this is the Globalist. I'm Vincent McEvin. Coming up this morning, a Polish railway line is targeted with an explosion, damaging the tracks leading directly to Ukraine. With Warsaw blaming Moscow, we'll examine just how serious an escalation this is. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, after France and Spain, Volodymyr Zelenskyy heads to Turkey. Is Ankara the key to kickstarting fresh talks between Moscow and Kyiv? We'll go through the papers, hear the latest news from the art world, and we'll drop in in Paris as well to find out why they're enjoying a traditional Swiss Christmas. That's all ahead on the Globelist. Live from London, First, a look at what else is making the news. This. Both Chambers of Congress have agreed to order the U.S. justice Department to release its files on sex offender financier Jeffrey Epstein. Two Ukrainian citizens have long worked for Russian intelligence have been identified as the suspects behind two acts of sabotage on Poland's rail network. And the UK's government has proposed new rules to make it illegal to resell tickets for live events like concerts above their original cost. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio video throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, you may have already detected the programme isn't sounding quite its usual self this morning. We're having some technical difficulties here at Midori House, but we're endeavouring to stay on air to put the show out for you. So, to our first story. The Polish Prime Minister says an explosion on the main railway line connecting the country to Ukraine was an unprecedented act of sabotage. The finger of blame has been pointed further firmly towards Moscow. I'm joined now in studio by Russia analyst and regular Monocle Radio contributor Stephen DL. And from Krakow in Poland, by Maciez Mazzini, writer at large at Gazeta Woiborska and lecturer in journalism at Collegium Civitaz. Thank you both for joining me. First of all, Stephen, what do you make of this attack? Is this standard Russian playbook?
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Stephen DL
I would say it's gone beyond standard Russian playbook. Standard Russian playbook often is what we've seen drones flying into space, fighter jets flying into NATO airspace so that NATO has to scramble its jets. That's a sort of teasing. So this, I say, is one step beyond because it is actually causing damage and could indeed have caused death. As it happens, there were two incidents and the explosions weren't as bad as they could have been. One train carrying over 400 passengers was brought to a halt rather than being blown up. But I think that the idea that anyone else but Russia is behind it is nonsense. And it's very interesting now that Mr. Tusk has come out, the Polish Prime Minister and said, we know who these people are. They're actually Ukrainians who are now back in Belarus, not even in Russia, but in Belarus. Belarus, of course, being very close ally of Russia. So the simple answer I said, yes, this undoubtedly Moscow's hand is behind this.
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Vincent McEvin
And Matthieu, as I understand you were on a train last night. How are people in Poland feeling about this incident?
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Maciez Mazzini
It's actually quite a funny question, Vincent, because even though we have a war taking place on the eastern border of Poland, has been taking place for over three and a half years now, people here in Poland seem to have normalized the very fact that Russian operatives, be the Ukrainian nationals that are paid off by Russian services or Belarusians or even Russian themselves, are very active on the Polish side. Case in point, the missing rail tracks from Sunday morning. The Polish society seems to have normalized the fact that these kinds of events continue to happen. And I think this is a very worrying development because it's not just about societal resilience. It's not just about societal awareness, is also about the readiness to maintain a certain level of support for Ukraine, because apart from the fact that there is an investigation taking place, obviously in the case of sabotage from Sunday morning and the PO authorities are trying to ascertain or establish with 100% certainty that these people were actually paid off by Russian intelligence units. There is also a cyber cognitive war, if you please, taking place online. And the early assessment of online sentiments, social media posts, social media entries, commentaries, suggest kind of unilaterally, the more people, more Polish people, more Polish Internet users actually blame Ukrainians rather than Russians for the missed explosion of the second train that was carrying over 400 passengers and would have been a disastrous, disastrous act of act of sabotage on behalf of Russians. So now it's not just about whether Poles are aware of the fact that something could potentially go Wrong, or there could be an event that would result in mass casualties. Is also who they blame for such a possibility, or would blame for such a possibility. And it's clear that Russia is not just waging a war on critical infrastructure inside European Union countries and NATO countries, most importantly, but it's also waging a war for our opinions and minds. And it seems to be winning both very clearly.
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Vincent McEvin
Well, Stephen, I mean, Russia's tactics are, you know, we've had building satellites using sort of people paid on TikTok here in London. We've had drones over multiple European bases and civilian airports. But this seems to be a step further. I mean, this is essentially acts of war on EU territory now, isn't it?
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Stephen DL
It is, yes. And as our colleague in Warsaw, in Krakow has just said, you know, had the explosion damaged the train, killed people, I mean, then, you know, we were talking about a very serious incident. So the fact that it didn't doesn't make it any less serious in so much as it must be taken serious. And I find very worrying what he said, that Polish people are almost shrugging their shoulders and saying, oh, yeah, this is going on. And I don't think it's just a Polish problem. I think that it's very difficult in what for those of us. And of course, Poland is right next to the war. We're on the other side of Europe. It seems a long way away. It seems a long way away from any British people. And I think that we are all sleepwalking at the moment into a potential disaster. Russia is pushing, pushing, pushing, as he mentioned, the cyber attacks as well. This is in the Russian playbook. I hope we've got to a situation now where people understand a bit more than they did a few years ago, when those of us who talked about this were often said to be, oh, just warmongers or fantasists. This is actually happening and we can see it all the time. But I still think that the civilian populations of Europe just aren't ready for this. A lot of people, in fact, the taxi driver who brought me in this morning was saying, he said, I don't really listen to the news now. It's too depressing. And I think that people. That is fairly common. It's not the first time I've heard that people not bothering with the news, they are not aware of what is going on and how serious it is. And Putin now in Ukraine is in a situation where he can't get out of it. He's in a war. He cannot back out of that. And Lose face. But it doesn't mean that he's not probing everywhere he can in Europe. So we see so many examples now and it is time that people realize just how serious this is.
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Vincent McEvin
Well, Matthews, just on that probing, I mean, this kind of act of sabotage, it's very kind of hard to tackle. Poland is increasing its defense spending, I think all the way up to 5%. It'll be the sort of leader in terms of GDP spending in NATO. But do you think that Polish society can get more resilient in terms of trying to stop this stuff?
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Maciez Mazzini
Well, absolutely, it needs to. I don't think it's a question about rearming your, your military units or buying more drones or having even more sophisticated equipment and tanks and whatnot, because at the end of the day, you will never be able to pluck all the holes. This wasn't a military operation. And I think this needs to be said loud and clear that Russia isn't waging a traditional war. In might well be the case that we're not going to see an all out military invasion into the territory of any NATO country, be it Estonia or Latvia or Lithuania or Poland or Romania. Because Russians don't have the resources to march into NATO. They don't have the resources to confront ourselves, to confront themselves, sorry. With a potential activation of Article 5 of NATO. What they're after right now is the dismantling of the United European Front that supports Kyiv. Stephen rightly pointed out the Putin backed himself in the corner in Ukraine. He's in a very difficult situation, but he's also in a very difficult situation domestically. He's running out of money to pay funds to the families of foreign soldiers in, in Ukraine. He's running out of options in terms of how to sustain his war machine economically. The oil prices are falling down. The revenue from oil because of the damage, refineries and infrastructure is going down. So he needs to persuade the west that he is winning nonetheless and Ukraine cannot win. So I think we need to be aware that this is in as much a political action as it is just a physical sabotage aimed at dismantling the united front. Especially given the fact that winter is coming. There's going to be a very difficult winter. And also Ukraine is running out of money and the European Union is thinking about appropriating the frozen Russian assets. All of which matters to Putin a lot.
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Vincent McEvin
And Stephen, just briefly, a wounded animal is a dangerous animal. A wounded bear in this case. This sort of effect is psychological, isn't it? Because it sort of makes people in the west, as you say, turn away from news, but also not convinced of what's true, what's real. What should governments in the west be doing? Should they be robust and launching counterattacks on the cybersphere and on infrastructure in Russia?
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Stephen DL
The cyber attacks against Russia is possible, but I think the crucial thing that governments should be doing across Europe is actually educating the people more, trying to get to those people who don't watch the news and saying, listen, look, you know, there's been drones, there's now been this explosion in Poland. There's the cyber attacks. This is, you know, people have got to be aware of this. People have got to be. It's back to a situation we were in when there were troubles in Ireland and there were bombs sometimes on the British mainland, where people are told, you know, look around you, look out for, you know, a suspicious package or whatever. You occasionally see the notices. People don't even read them. It's gone by. This is. This is serious. This really has to be taken into account. Putin wants to cause chaos apart from anything else. And as Matteo said, he may not be about to invade the rest of Europe at the moment, but any chaos he can cause, it comes cheaply to him in terms of money. So we really must be more aware.
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Vincent McEvin
Well, I know you yourself were sort of caught up in an IRA bombing once, I recently learned, but Steven Diel in London and Matthews Mazzini in Warsaw, thank you both very much. This is the Globalist. Well, Ankara will enjoy a diplomatic moment in the sun today when the Ukrainian president heads to Turkey. President Volodymyr Zelensky says he has a fresh plan to kickstart negotiations with Russia that have been stalled for months. Emma Nelson was joined in the studio by Monocle's Istanbul correspondent, Hannah Lucinda Smith. She began by asking what today's plan is.
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UBS Narrator
Okay, so Volodymyr Zelensky is coming to Ankara, and he's going to meet there with two people. One of them is President Erdogan, of course, the Turkish president. He's been the man at the center of a lot of the negotiations, both on the table and backroom negotiations going between Ukraine and Russia since 2022 and the invasion. The other person is Steve Witkoff, the US Envoy. Now, I think the makeup of these meetings tells us quite a lot. First of all, the obvious thing. Zelensky is clearly looking for some kind of ceasefire. The Russians have said they're not going to send any representatives to that meeting today. However, they are watching it. And Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman, said that Putin may Be open to looking at some of the suggestions. The other interesting thing is the fact that this is Steve Wyckoff and Erdogan together. I think this is really a sign of how close the US and Turkey have become ever since Donald Trump came back into the White House. And we know he's a leader who very much admires people like Erdogan, like Putin. He sees in their way of doing things something similar to the way that he does things. And he's made it very, very clear over the past few months, Erdogan is a leader that he wants to work alongside in order to try and bring some of the most intractable conflicts, Russia and Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, to a close.
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Emma Nelson
And this role that Erdogan now occupies.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
Is made even more complicated by the.
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Emma Nelson
Fact that his relationship with Vladimir Putin.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
Has, in the past been strong.
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UBS Narrator
It has. It's a complicated relationship. This is not a relationship of equals. This, in terms of economy, in terms of manpower, in terms of regional influence, Russia's always been the stronger partner. And, you know, if we look back historically, Russia and Turkey, or, you know, Russia and the Ottoman Empire, have never really been allies. They're just too close regionally. So this friendship that's developed over the past decade between Erdogan and Putin is really something of a historical anomaly. But it is in no way a kind of alliance as you would think of it in a traditional sense. These two leaders are at odds in several conflicts. Let's not forget, you know, officially, Turkey is very much behind Ukraine in this conflict. It does not recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea. It has provided, particularly drones to the Ukrainian army, which have proved really, really important in the Ukrainian army' arsenal. But at the same time, there are certain advantages that Putin and Erdogan get from each other. They are huge trading partners. There was a point where they had a spat back in late 2015, where Russia cut some of the trade with Turkey. It has huge impact immediately. Now, of course, Turkey is also very useful to Russia because it allows a channel through which Russia can keep selling its gas to Europe, for example. Turkey has not sanctioned Russia or Russian entities. So we saw in 2020 a lot of the oligarchs bringing their superyachts to Turkey, for example. So it's very much a pragmatic relationship, but it's one that, since 2022, Erdogan has really played on in order to give himself this position, a position that really only he can occupy between Ukraine and Russia, able to bring the two together.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
And where does Zelenskyy capitalise?
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UBS Narrator
On this, it's really difficult to see where he can capitalize other than basically stopping the fighting. You know, we've seen over the past few days, week, Russia really stepping up its attacks, particularly on Kiev. What Zelenskyy is going to the table with in Istanbul today is, is an offer to have a ceasefire where the front lines are as they stand. Russia is still pushing for more, and I think that tells us that Russia is still in the more powerful position here. It's the one still demanding more from Ukraine.
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Emma Nelson
Let's turn our focus to Steve Witkoff. A very important moment for Turkey to have Wytkoff in the room. How important is it for Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
When we all know how inflammatory or indeed how flammable the relationship between President.
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Emma Nelson
Zelensky and President Trump is and has.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
Been over the last few months, to have Witkoff there?
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Emma Nelson
What role will he play?
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UBS Narrator
I think, yeah, it's certainly an intermediary role. You know, I think, to be honest, the more important role here is Erdogan. I think, you know, there are, you know, far warmer feelings between President Erdogan and President Zelenskyy than there are between Zelenskyy and Trump. And I think, you know, for Trump, this is a useful thing. He's kind of a. He can use Erdogan as a kind of middleman to reach out to some of these leaders that he's possibly burnt some bridges with, possibly doesn't see eye to eye with.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
And finally, just while I have you in the studio, there is a rather.
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Emma Nelson
Strange race taking place to be host for COP31.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
COP30 is still ongoing in Belling in Brazil, but Australia and Turkey have been.
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Emma Nelson
Pitching for the next year's gig. Where are we up to with that?
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UBS Narrator
Okay, so Australia is now saying that it won't veto Turkey, which is a major opening for Turkey to take this. What do you call it? A title, A role, to take this role. I think it is very interesting looking back over the past few years, particularly at the countries that have hosted COP and looking at how they've used it. I actually went to COP 29, which was in Baku last year. And of course, Azerbaijan is a petro state. It's a state that fills its coffers with its petrol reserves and with its gas reserves. And it was very, very, very interesting to see how a petro state uses COP to rebrand itself. And it was quite literally that, and particularly the way it presented what it's doing with the area of Nagorno Karabakh, which is it sees back from Armenia over the past five years, sort of how it was presenting that as a kind of green project, of course, this year in the Amazon. And if it comes to Turkey, there are massive environmental questions about Turkey too. You know, one of the biggest stories that's been sort of going on and on over the past couple of years is about the export of recycling from Britain to Turkey. When it arrives in Turkey, it's not recycled, it's burnt or put into landfills. You know, this is just one environmental problem. So it will be interesting to see if Turkey is to host COP31, how it's going to present itself as it does that.
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Vincent McEvin
Well, that was Emma Nelson speaking to Monocle's Istanbul correspondent, Hannah Lucinda Smith.
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UBS Narrator
Craft is a matter of perspect, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Vincent McEvin
Welcome back to Monocle Radio. Let's continue with today's newspapers. Joining me in the studio is Theo Ushwood, political journalist and broadcaster. Theo, a lot in the papers this morning. We're going to start down the road in Westminster and allegations of Chinese spying.
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Theo Ushwood
Yes, this is a story that's featured in the Financial Times. I've seen it as well in the Times two and this is the story that was issued yesterday, a notice that was issued Yesterday from the UK Internal Security Agency, Homeland Security Agency, MI5 to parliamentarians both in the House of Commons and in the House of Lords, that China is potentially looking to pay large financial incentives to those close to parliamentarians to gather information. At first, MI5 is warning they'll be after information that is fairly low level in the public domain. But the warning is that security agents who are targeting the staff members, family members potentially of parliamentarians who are just one removed. So people who work in their offices or close family members. And the warning is that whilst this may seem innocuous at first, contacts often coming through LinkedIn agents working for the Chinese Ministry of Security will invariably start to ramp up their demands. And MPs and peers are being told that they need to look out for anybody in their inner circle, close circle, who might be asking leading questions or detailed questions about what they're up to or insider information that could then potentially they could potentially use to pass on to the Chinese state. And of course, this comes at a sensitive time. Looking back only a couple of months, there was that decision by the Crown Prosecution Service that brought widespread scrutiny of the government's position on China not to proceed with a case against two men who vehemently deny the allegations of spying for China. And then, looking ahead to next month, the government is expected to make a final decision on whether to allow China to build a super embassy just adjacent to the square mile, the City of London. And there are widespread concerns, not just amongst our own security services, but also in the United States too, that China could use this embassy to spy on. To spy or to influence or potentially cause disruption to the financial markets, given it's. So the location of this embassy is so close, or would be so close to London's key financial district.
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Vincent McEvin
And, I mean, you've spent a lot of time working in and around Parliament. The thing that listeners might need to know is that a lot of the people that work for MPs here in the UK, they're very young, they can be a little bit naive, they're not that well paid. So this is a weakness in the system, isn't it?
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Theo Ushwood
Yes, you're very. You're quite right to point that out because, of course, you know, a researcher's job, you know, you're straight out of university, you may not be paid very much more than £20,000. Well, that's 25,000, €30,000 a year. And you won't necessarily be well versed in how the system, how the parliamentary system works. And you could find yourself, and this is the warning from MI5, you could find yourself open to being recruited by Chinese security services. It's worth saying that these attempts, the ones that have been highlighted in the media anyway, are not particularly sophisticated. One of them was on a message over LinkedIn in broken English. But nevertheless, I think the security services are warning MPs that they just need to be vigilant, not just in terms of themselves, but in terms of those around them, about anybody who is asking that strange question about a meeting or what they heard at lunch or what they're picking up at a particular committee from a junior member of staff or somebody on their team as to why they would necessarily need to know that information and who they would be passing that information onto, because that's where the MI5 believe these investigations are going and crossing the Atlantic.
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Vincent McEvin
Now, someone who has a lot of information on the antics of Mohammed bin Salman is Donald Trump, but he's choosing to believe MBS over his own Security Service Services. When it came to the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, this was a very prickly.
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Theo Ushwood
Press spray, I think they call it in the United States in the White House yesterday. And it is of course MBS's first visit to the White House since the 2018 killing of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Istanbul. This is across the websites, newspaper websites this morning. It was particularly grisly torture and murder of Mr. Khashoggi. And of course, US intelligence concluded in 2021 that it was done with the express approval of Mohammed bin Salman. Fast forward to yesterday's meeting and of course, unsurprisingly, Donald Trump was asked about it. Saudi Arabia is seen as, you know, a key ally of the United States. There were also some questions about the Trump family involvement in the country. And the US President brushed off questions, saying that these things happen and describing Jamal Khashoggi as somebody who is extremely controversial and that Mohammed bin Salman knew nothing about it, which of course is a complete contradiction of the intelligence, provide the own findings of his intelligence. What I also thought was quite interesting was MBS was much more conciliatory. He said it was painful, it was a huge mistake and we're doing our very best. This is Saudi Arabia to make sure that it doesn't happen again.
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Vincent McEvin
And Donald Trump has an unusual ally in the rap world.
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Theo Ushwood
Yes, Nicki Minaj. This is a story and of course it's the persecution of, we're talking about the persecution of Christians, the murder and killing of Christians in Nigeria. And what's interesting about this particular story is of course it's causing a huge amount of consternation amongst right wing politicians in Washington who want Donald Trump to take a much more forthright stance towards what is happening in Nigeria. Donald Trump has said that he would be prepared to send in, he'd be prepared to send in American troops, guns a blazing. That's a quote to stop unless the Nigerian government gets a handle on exactly what is happening. But we now have an intervention from Nicki Minaj who of course is based in the United States. Multimillion selling Trinidadian rapper who's publicly backed Donald Trump. This is from the BBC news website saying that she's calling for the protection of Christians in Nigeria and it's not about, she says she's not talking about taking sides or dividing people, but about uniting humanity. And she praised Trump for, and I'm quoting here, prioritizing the issue and for his leadership.
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Vincent McEvin
Theo Ashwood, political journalist and broadcaster. Thank you very much. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here is what else we're keeping an eye on today. The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been challenged by reporters about the murder murder of Jamal Khashoggi during his first visit to the United States since the journalist was murdered by Saudi agent seven years ago. The question prompted a furious response from President Trump as the two leaders sat side by side in the Oval Office. Both chambers in the US Congress have voted to release the Department of Justice files relating to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Republicans offered their backing to the bills after Donald Trump reversed his position over the weekend. And the British government has announced a ban on ticket tout. You will no longer be able to sell tickets for events such as concerts and sporting fixtures at higher than the price at which you purchase them, apart from an administration fee to resell them. This is the Glob List. Do stay tuned. Now for a look behind the headlines. Today we focus on a new creative centre in New York. Here's Monocle's Sophie Monahan Coombes on the Lighthouse.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
New York's historic Eberhard Faber pencil factory in Greenpoint has been transformed into a new creative centre.
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Stephen DL
The Lighthouse opened its first outpost on.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
The west coast in Los Angeles earlier this year and describes itself as a creative campus. The newly outfitted New York building, which opened this week, houses elegantly designed workspaces.
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Stephen DL
Podcast studios and a test kitchen, as.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
Well as a theatre, cafe and and members lounge. The proposition and the pertinent choice of building is a reminder that creativity online depends on forging connections and experimenting in the real world. Membership is open to directors, filmmakers, online creators, artists and makers. John Goss, CEO of the Lighthouse, tells Monocle that while thousands are spent on annual networking events and summits, the Lighthouse is hoping to build a place that allows allows for coming together and community building on a daily basis.
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Vincent McEvin
Well, that was my colleague, Monocle. Sophie Monaghan combs. For more, you can sign up to our daily newsletter, the Monocle minute. Head to monocle.com theminute. This is the Globalist. It is 1730 in Canberra and 830 in Zurich. Last week, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visited Sydney and signed a landmark new security agreement with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The pact commits the two leaders to meet regularly to discuss shared security concerns and to consult on any threats to the security of either nation. I'm joined now from Canberra by David Andrews, Senior Policy Advisor at the Australian National University. David, thank you for speaking with us. What kind of defence treaty is this new Australian Indonesian agreement.
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David Andrews
I think it's important to stress, Vinny, that it's not an alliance. So I think that's one thing that can get a little bit confused sometimes is we talk about this as a bilateral security treaty, which is basically the tier below an alliance. So Australia's recently established a mutual defence treaty, so a proper alliance with Papua New guinea and we already have an existing one with New Zealand and the United States, but this is that next tier down. So it doesn't have any obligations for either party to come to the other's defence in the style of a NATO Article 5. But it does have that consultation piece which I believe is similar to NATO's Article 4, which Australia also shares with Japan, Malaysia and Singapore amongst others. So it's that sort of that highest tier fear of our non allied security partners.
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Vincent McEvin
So it's sending out a signal. Why haven't the two countries and the others you mentioned there formed perhaps a sort of southern hemisphere NATO type alliance?
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David Andrews
Well, one of the, one of the complexities is that there isn't perhaps the shared strategic space and the shared history and culture that you have in Europe in that of course, the nation bonding together after the Second World War and with those literally with land borders, which does change quite a bit when it comes to these kinds of partnerships. It just changes, I suppose, the way that you perceive your security threats and the kinds of threats you're engaging with. But also you talk about, I guess there's a long tradition of non alignment within the Asian security sphere. So countries like Indonesia sort of famously leading in that movement along with India. So we're talking about the Bandung Conference, Bandung being in Indonesia, which shaped this non aligned movement of states who during the Cold War, as the name suggests, align with either the Soviet Union or the Western allies. So there's not really, I would say a high likelihood of there being any kind of multilateral sort of cross regional security alliance in the style of NATO. It just doesn't quite gel with the strategic priorities of the region or with those strategic cultures that we're dealing with. But you do have a number of core bilateral alliance partners all linked to the United States, like Australia, Australia, Japan, Korea and so on. But this to me is what makes it interesting is it's the most recent of a long string of bilateral security arrangements that Australia has actively pursued over the last five to seven years with states all through our region. So not just this alliance with New guinea and this new security treaty with Indonesia, but with other countries in the South Pacific as well. So I'm particularly intrigued as to how a middle power like Australia has really driven this process of alliance or security treaty institutionalization throughout the region. So things that are happening without the direct involvement of the United States, for instance.
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Vincent McEvin
And what are the most urgent security challenges both countries are facing right now?
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David Andrews
Well, I think that's actually one of the most intriguing parts about it. And what's caught a lot of people somewhat off guard, in the Australian context at least, is no one was expecting this, that there's not necessarily been a driving principal security threat threat that has, that has led to this outcome. So Indonesia doesn't have a history of forming security partnerships of this style. It's not what they do. The last time they did that was in 1995, also with Australia, which was then sort of torn down about four years later after Australia's involvement in the peacekeeping force in East Timor. So this is a bit of a unicorn in some ways, and that's what makes it so intriguing, is that as much as Australia might be particularly conscious of, say, the role of China in the Indo Pacific, Indonesia is also building its security ties with Russia and with China and other partners to live up to this non aligned, friends to all, enemies to none style approach. So there are definitely some different perspectives or assessments of the region. And so that we've chosen this time to institutionalise our relationship through this treaty is actually quite unexpected.
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Vincent McEvin
And once the treaty comes into force, in which areas do you expect to see the most significant changes? Will we see, for instance, joint exercises, sort of maritime surveillance or kind of coordination in countering cyber attacks?
- [36:49]
David Andrews
Well, there are a number of exercises we conduct at the moment, with probably the most substantial of which will be occurring next year in the Keres Woomera series, which was only established last year. So that's very new. I think the South China Sea is an area where Indonesia has been playing quite a reserved hand. It does have some maritime claims that overlap with claims that China has made, but it's not pushed too aggressively in that space. And I think. I don't anticipate that they would want Australia involved in that space. But I think in some ways the most important is the political sort of leader to leader and minister to minister, annual meetings that will come out of this. So it brings a much closer political tie and much closer diplomatic ties between the countries. And over time, I suspect we'll see more of those kinds of those changes, as you've indicated, whether that's in maritime surveillance activities or in cyber coordination. But I think it all starts with this, these political structures from which we will see deeper integration between our defence departments and our foreign ministries and our militaries to sort of find opportunities for cooperation. So nothing's really been articulated just yet. I think we're waiting to see the full text of the treaty as well. But it's, I think annual leader meetings between the President of Indonesia and Prime Minister of Australia as well as between key ministers in the defence and foreign policy space, I think will be a really important, important first step.
- [38:13]
Vincent McEvin
And finally, just briefly, obviously Australia is busy with its ORCUS deal, building nuclear submarines up here in Europe, all the countries and the sort of NATO alliance, Canada as well, having to up their defence spending beyond the 2% GDP target. Now where does Australia sit in this? What roughly are you spending and are there sort of moves to try and up it?
- [38:36]
David Andrews
So it depends on who you ask, but most estimates would put us at around about, about 2.2% of GDP. The defence ministers recently said if we use the same calculus that NATO uses, would be closer to 2.8. But there's definitely been political pressure both by the opposition in Australia and by the United States for us to aim towards that 3.5% of GDP and possibly then the extra 1.5% of non core defence funding as NATO is committed to. The Prime Minister has committed to increasing defence spending and has done over several years, but has been reticent to be bound by a number target. And as rather said, we need to look at what, what strategy we're employing, what capabilities we need, and from that we will determine the amount of spending we need rather than starting with a number and working backwards. So Australia's next national defence strategy is due out approximately the first quarter of 2026 and I suspect that will outlay sort of the next phase of evolution for Australia's defence spending as well.
- [39:36]
Vincent McEvin
David Andrews in Canberra, thank you very much. You're listening to Monocle Radio video. What is the future of the transatlantic relationship? That question was at the heart of a gathering of students and experts at Harvard University for the German American Conference this past weekend. Journalist H.J. mai attended the event and heard from the former US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, among others.
- [40:10]
H.J. Mai
The campus of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts was humming with activity as the 17th edition of the German American Conference got on the way. Politicians, business leaders, scholars and students from more than half a dozen countries attended the three day event to network, exchange ideas and discuss the challenges ahead. Jules Oberschulte, who is currently pursuing her PhD in psychology at Harvard. Harvard was among those in attendance. She's from Germany and like many other Europeans, has a rather negative view of the current US Administration.
- [40:41]
Emma Nelson
Putting up with Trump has been really hard for Germany. At the same time, you could say it's more important than ever to stay connected. It makes a lot of sense that you would like to stay on Trump's good side, not his bad side, since his decisions can be really rough and hard to predict. But it does fear people in Germany. Many view the US More and more negatively because of Trump.
- [41:02]
H.J. Mai
Trump was among the many topics of discussion at the conference, which included panels on artificial intelligence, the rise of right wing populism, and climate policy. For student organizers, planning this year's event came against a backdrop of transatlantic tensions over tariffs and attacks from the Trump administration levied against Harvard and other universities. Despite these challenges, organizers managed to to put together an event that featured More than 100 speakers and over a thousand attendees. But as longtime New York Times correspondent and Harvard lecturer David Sanger noted, once these students enter the real world, things will get even more complicated.
- [41:39]
Vincent McEvin
They are walking into the most complex alliance relationships that I think we've seen.
- [41:47]
Theo Ushwood
In the 40 something years I've been coming covering this stuff.
- [41:51]
Vincent McEvin
The system that was built after World War II, which was anchored by NATO, the World bank, the IMF, all of the major institutions that sort of held together a collective sense of the west.
- [42:09]
H.J. Mai
Are now all grappling with the question.
- [42:11]
Vincent McEvin
Of whether the United States really sees itself as the core of an alliance.
- [42:19]
H.J. Mai
The keynote address at the conference was delivered by former U.S. u.S. Deputy Secretary of State Ambassador Wendy Sherman. She sat down with Monocle to discuss some of the current challenges of the transatlantic alliance. I started by asking her about the current state of the relationship.
- [42:36]
Wendy Sherman
Well, the US Is strongest when we work with Europe. That has been historically true. That is true today. But it is very challenging at the moment, not only because of the Trump administration and the approach it's taken on tariffs and on other issues, but because I think Europe is struggling as well with some of the same things. America is rapid social change, economic challenges, AI and technology which are changing the workplace. And we've never, none of us have done a very good job of helping people who are displaced by these changes in globalization or now in technology. And we really all need to be working together to try to imagine that future.
- [43:20]
H.J. Mai
You know, when you look at the approval ratings of current leaders in Europe, or even here with President Trump, who is the one who's the strongman when it comes to holding the transatlantic relationship together.
- [43:34]
Wendy Sherman
Well, I think that really comes down to all of us. If we want this to have a future, and we must. I think everyone is looking for someone who can take us out of this very challenging time, but I don't think it'll be a single individual. I think it's up to everybody in their local communities, in their countries to demand what we want from our leaders, but also to become those leaders. We are seeing in our country new leadership emerging, whether that's the new mayor elect of New York, Zorhan Mandani, or it is Governor to be Spanberger in Virginia or Governor to be Sherrill in New Jersey. These are the new generation of leaders that I think understand better the complexity that we're all facing.
- [44:20]
H.J. Mai
One of the big issues when it comes to transatlantic relationships, and especially NATO, is the war in Ukraine. The diplomatic solutions that President Trump has proposed have not worked so far. Where do you see this war going?
- [44:32]
Wendy Sherman
I think that it is critical that we stand with Ukraine and it is a place where we and Europe have stood together. I think we need to exert pressure here on our government to not abandon Ukraine because it is not just Ukraine that is at risk, and it certainly is, but it's Europe that is at risk. And the United States might want to pull up the bridges on the Atlantic and sort of go its own way, but we know from history that's just not possible. Borders don't matter when it comes to freedom and so many other issues, whether that's climate or the transfer of drugs or anything else. I think it's important for Europe to take those frozen assets and use it to support Ukraine. I think the EU has done things it's never done before to support Ukraine. I think it's important for us to continue to provide weapons to Ukraine and to be able to move forward.
- [45:36]
H.J. Mai
One other topic that I quickly want to touch on with you, especially in your former role as the deputy secretary of State. What are your thoughts about what's going on in the Caribbean and you know, with those American strikes on so called narcotic boats? What's your impression of them?
- [45:50]
Wendy Sherman
My own sense is that there isn't a legal basis for what the president is doing. His lawyers have come up with a rationale, but that rationale is, in my view, quite specious. I don't know what the ultimate goal here is. If it's some kind of specialized in Venezuela, we will perhaps see that in the coming days. This is all part of the administration trying to say I'm going to protect you and I'm going to create risks even where they don't exist.
- [46:19]
Vincent McEvin
That was Ambassador Wendy Sherman at the German American Conference in Boston. Thanks to H.J. mai for that report. This is the Globalist on Monocle, Radio.
- [46:33]
UBS Narrator
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- [47:09]
Vincent McEvin
Well, I'm joined in the studio now by Ben Luke, review editor at the art newspaper and host of its podcast. Ben, welcome to the studio. First of all, the art market is back.
- [47:20]
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Yes, there was a very, very successful auction at Sotheby's last night. And just to put it in context, the art market's been, been very damp squibby for the last couple of years and there's been lots of jitters. Auctions have been flops, the fairs have been so so. But then there was a bit of an uptick at the Paris Art Fair, the Art Basel Paris Art Fair last month and then an auction last night and we had the second highest auction price ever fetched for a Gustav Klimt painting.
- [47:51]
Vincent McEvin
And why has there been a depression in the market? And why do you think it's coming back now?
- [47:54]
Hannah Lucinda Smith
It's, it's a multitude of factors, but it does tap into the kind of wider socio, economic issues, geopolitical issues. Obviously in the war in Ukraine in 2022 was a big thing. The, you know, the, the war in Gaza and, and many, many more issues. But yes, it's, it always relates to the wider cycle of economic depressions and so on.
- [48:18]
Vincent McEvin
And this particular painting, why do you think it was in such high demand? Demand?
- [48:22]
Hannah Lucinda Smith
I think Klimt's one of those artists who has a massive appeal for collectors across the world. He has a massive appeal in Asia as much as he does in the States and Europe. Plus, this was a work that was in the collection of one of the great collectors of our time who died recently. And this is Leonard Lauder, heir of the Estee Lauder cosmetics fortune and so on. A really like a kind of absolute royalty of us, US art collectors. So he gave a massive collection of Cubism to the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York. He was on the board of trustees of the Whitney Museum, one of the great museums in New York. He had an absolutely stellar collection and it came to the auction block. And when works of this Quality come to auctions even when the economics of the art market are jittery, they can, can override that. And, and they are in such demand, they are such major works that, that, that they sell.
- [49:25]
Vincent McEvin
And do we know anything about the buyer at all or is that.
- [49:27]
Hannah Lucinda Smith
No, we don't. That's one of those things. There was a big, there was a big bidding war. You know, it's one of those auctions where all the reports suggest there was a. There was an energy in the room even before it started, I think, just because of the quality. It's a really blue chip collection, as I say, and therefore there's always a sense of anticipation when that happens. But if you look at the results of the auction generally last night, it was such a great collection that, you know, relentlessly, they were just work after work was selling above its high estimate. So it's just a sense in which, you know, here's a major collector. There's people all over the world bidding on telephones and in the room. And there's just an energy in the room which, which all the market reporters have been talking about.
- [50:10]
Vincent McEvin
And do we get sort of collectors like that, you know, young people like that these days, or do these paintings just sort of disappear into anonymous collections? Some around the world world, maybe financial institutions holding them or hedge funds?
- [50:21]
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Yeah, well, this is it. There are collectors out there. There's a really interesting moment in the collection because in the collector base now, because so many collectors, so much money now obviously is in tech. And there has been a worry, I think, among auction houses and the wider market that perhaps there wasn't a new generation of collectors who were interested in art. And that was somewhat buckled by some collectors who come from tech and from crypto and so on, who seem interested particularly in kind of high brand value works, if you like, works by big name artists like Klimt perhaps, but also by people like Damien Hurst, by Maurizio Catalan, who might come to in a minute. But. But also they are very much as interested in luxury goods as they are in painting. And they don't see a difference between a great work of art and a great pair of sneakers. So. So there's. So there are changing habits among collectors and there does seem to be some of the new money that is pouring into the auctions.
- [51:25]
Vincent McEvin
Well, you mentioned Maurizio Catalan there. His golden loo up for sale.
- [51:30]
Maciez Mazzini
Yes.
- [51:31]
Hannah Lucinda Smith
So this is a work that actually was a plumbed in loo in the Guggenheim in 2016. How prophetic for Mauricio Catalan to make a Golden Loo in the year that Donald Trump rose to pres. To the presidency in the States. And you know, he, he always has been. Had his finger on the pulse. Maurizio Catalan, this very controversial conceptual artist who has a knack of just creating these indelible images. The Golden Loo is one of them. But really interestingly, I think everybody expected it to sell really well last night, but it was actually one of the few flops it was. It sold. Sold basically for what? It's what its estimate was, which was 10 million. But that figure was given $10 million. But that figure was given as its. Of its. As its value in gold. And therefore everybody expected that there would.
- [52:17]
Vincent McEvin
Be bids and gold prices at record highs.
- [52:19]
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Yes, exactly. So it's worth $10 million in. In gold. And it sold for 10. It's hammered for $10 million. So what does that say about Catalan's value? So Catalan's contribution to that artwork was nil, effectively, that's what it's saying. But you know, it's. It's a work which taps into the history of conceptualism. Duchamp made a great loo, which was called Fountain, which was. Is one of the absolute seminal works of conceptual and modern art. And it's Catalan's riff on that. And, and I, I fully expected it to sell for a lot more than it did. So it's a curious one that it didn't.
- [52:54]
Vincent McEvin
Well, Golden Lou 2016, Donald Trump won't say anything about allegations about a certain Moscow hotel room. And finally Cop 30 has been taking place and there's a sort of art connection with it.
- [53:07]
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Yeah, there's been. The Gallery Climate Coalition has been running for a little while, began in relatively small circumstances and has really grown. There's now 2,000 members and they've released a report which says that of those members, 4/5, so 79% end. Have now cut their carbon emissions by 25% and therefore are on target for this aim that the coalition has to cut carbon emissions by 50% by 2030. So I think it's really key that we acknowledge that if you think about the auctions and these vast sums being sold that Clint sold for $205 million, you think about the high net worth individual individuals. The. The art world does have a problem with carbon emissions, partly because the big collectors are flying on private jets into fairs all over the world or to auction houses and so on. So that's one of them. But there is this. These three problems that the coalition's identified, which are flight freight and building Energy. And those are the ways that. Those are the things that they are trying to tackle in all of these things. Because of course, you know, galleries are doing fairs, are. They have sites all over the world. And therefore the amount of flights that galleries are taking, if you imagine that multiplied time and time again across, across the year, it's. It's a massive amount of carbon. And so they, they're trying to address this, but they are also recognizing that there are wider systemic issues that, you know, tap into what cop's talking about. There are, you know, I think the art world can use its advocacy with influential politicians and so on to try and push the carbon discussion further, to try and push the climate discussion further. It's got lots more to do, but it's good signs that it's really addressing this issue and it's really trying to bring it to the forefront of the artwork.
- [55:03]
Vincent McEvin
I'm just wondering if whoever got that Golden Loo will be sort of trying to put it in an economy, overhead storage or booking a separate seat for it. Yeah, there's some challenges there. Ben Luke of the art newspaper, thank you very much. You're listening to the Globalist on Monacle Radio. Now, how do you recreate the magic of Zurich's Christmas markets in new cities? This week, after several additions across Switzerland, the Swiss Christmas market comes to Paris for the first time. It's called Noel La Villette, held in the park in the northeast of the city and will feature more than 100 chalets, raclette and plenty of gluvin. Monocle's Tom Edwards caught up with Katja Viber, the co founder and creative force behind Zurich's beloved markets. She began by telling Tom how each city lends its own sparkle.
- [56:11]
Emma Nelson
When we started a Christmas market at Bellevue in Zurich, I said, you cannot do this somewhere else. I was so proud. And I said, this is so specific for Zurich. We were asked by other cities or people from other cities, entrepreneurs to kind of co host or partner or co develop new concepts for their city after they saw ours and said, is that possible? This is really for Zurich. And then we started thinking and talking, talking about what we did. We always try to think out of the perspective of the citizens. Obviously we need to understand from our partners what is the sparkle of Christmas or festive season for them even different when you only go one hour away to Lucerne, where we did the market, or in Geneva where we are just close to the lake with this amazing international view that you get there and the market is much bigger because you have, have A huge space which you need to fill. We had a Ferris wheel integrated or now in Paris we have a huge fountain in the middle where you can put the market around and the stalls, but also those areas where people can collect, where we have fire pits and a bit of a cozy spot. So it just gets everywhere where we are a little bit of a different thing. You feel it with different colors of the stalls. It has still the essence of the other.
- [57:32]
Hannah Lucinda Smith
I think that's really interesting that you say it's definitely recognizably the same, but it's very, very different. Because that must be. That's quite an interesting creative tension, isn't it? To make sure that places are unique and yet part of the family, just mention a couple of specific things. So I don't know, go to a particular one of your locations, maybe a single moment. You've mentioned some already, but what are a couple of the things that give you the extra wowishness if people are planning on a visit? I don't know, maybe in Paris, this new site or one of the old sites, you know, Bellevue all these years in. Take me to a particular spot and just describe what it's like, what people will experience, why you're still so passionate about it, why it will deliver all that Christmas magic that people want.
- [58:16]
Emma Nelson
I'm so much of a Christmas and Christmas market lover that I say please go and visit all of them. Every market, every location has this uniqueness and the different smell in a way of flavor. My recommendation for this year is of course go to Paris and visit it. It's only like 4 and a half hours ride with the train from here, so you could even do both at the same weekend. But one of my favorites. But it's also because I love the two girls so much with whom we work there is Geneva. Because the city of Geneva has. This is so different from the other cities that we could co create already and. And this spot that we have there just on the lake where you are sitting in the Fond de Chalet and you have those huge windows and you can see the lake just one meter beside you. And then you stroll through the market. They have beautiful vendors. It's just. I would really definitely send you there if you would say which one unique spot you want to visit. We have Illuminarium and Landesmuseum, which is a light show which is completely different from everything else and a little bit longer. But this is something that we did once and it's completely different from any other Christmas experience that was catch a.
- [59:38]
Vincent McEvin
Viba in conversation with Tom Edwards. And for more stories from the world of business, why not tune in to a brand new episode of the Entrepreneurs, Premiering tonight at 20 o' clock London time here on Monocle Radio. Well, that is all for today's edition of the Globalist. Thank you to our producers, Emma Nelson, Chris Chermack and Laura Kramer, our researcher, Joanna Moore Melsa and our studio manager, Christy o' Grady and Emma Nelson, with editing assistance from Steph Chungoo after the headlines. There's more music on the way. The briefing is live at midday, London time. The Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'm Vincent McEvinney. Thank you for listening.
- [60:33]
UBS Narrator
With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us, not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.