The Globalist – December 19, 2025
Episode Theme:
Shifting Western priorities: From Europe and the US to Asia
Host: Emma Nelson (Monocle)
Key Guests: Nina dos Santos (Intl. correspondent), Greg Scruggs (Seattle), William Yang (San Francisco), Arti Bessegari (Canberra), Theo Usherwood (Press Association), Marisa Lorenzo (Johannesburg), Tim Abrams (Oxford), Karen Krasanovich (Chicago)
Overview
This episode of The Globalist focuses on how Western priorities have shifted in 2025, particularly in the context of the EU’s support for Ukraine, the United States’ changing diplomatic and military posture, and increasing Western attention on Asia and Africa. The conversation dissects the strains and adaptations occurring in long-standing alliances, the influence of transactional politics, and the way the balance of power, leadership, and values has evolved in the West under a second Trump administration.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. EU’s Ukraine Deal: Fractures in Europe’s United Front
[03:32–05:56]
- EU agreed on a €90bn loan over two years for Ukraine but failed to agree on using frozen Russian assets.
- “It’s a rather uncomfortable fudge... Germany, Poland and others were left with a bloody nose.” – Nina dos Santos [04:01]
- France and Italy, influenced by US lobbying, blocked the use of Russian assets.
- Not all EU states are participating; divisions between member nations deepen ("Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic will not be participating").
- Nina dos Santos: "This is exactly the type of climate that Donald Trump has created inside the EU."
- Underlines European anxiety about diminishing American support and the erosion of post-Cold War cohesion.
2. US Withdrawal & New Priorities
[05:56–07:24]
- US aid for Ukraine reduced sharply ($400 million passed by Congress compared to Europe’s multi-billions; is a “paltry” sum compared to previous US support).
- The US’s focus has narrowed to its own hemisphere under President Trump.
- Greg Scruggs: "If one considers the war that Ukraine is fighting a 'war for the West', the current White House doesn’t seem to entirely agree." [06:10]
3. Asia in the Spotlight: US–Taiwan–China Dynamics
[07:24–10:28]
- Trump administration announces an $11bn arms package for Taiwan—“the largest US weapons package for the island in its history.”
- William Yang: “Taiwan was very anxious about how the Trump administration might approach the relationship with Taipei... there is some reassurance, but also uneasiness and uncertainty.” [08:02]
- Coming Trump state visit to Beijing introduces high uncertainty; Taiwan closely monitors ahead of any shifting US-China bargains.
- Approvals of some tech exports to China seen as strategic concessions.
4. The Abandonment of Values-Based Western Foreign Policy
[10:28–13:18]
- Deals increasingly transactional; values or "rules-based order" are sidelined.
- Greg Scruggs highlights US–Venezuela sanctions as performance rather than substance.
- The idea is floated that US actions (such as a blockade) could set precedents for China’s Taiwan ambitions.
- Scruggs: “There are no more illusions at the end of 2025 about such niceties as a values-based system.”
5. The EU’s Struggles with Leadership and Multilateralism
[13:18–15:58]
- EU grapples with “existential crisis” as consensus models fray and bilateral deals (esp. by the US) take precedence.
- Ursula von der Leyen and German political influence are noted, but not all of Europe wants a “German model.”
- Mercosur deal with Latin America delayed; multilateral trade vision is fraying.
- Nina dos Santos: “Europe needs a sense of leadership... but not everybody wants to do things German style.”
6. Prospects for a Post-Trump America
[15:58–17:08]
- Even post-Trump, fundamental changes may not revert, reflecting deeper shifts in US politics and society.
- Greg Scruggs: “The American electorate elected this man twice now. It’s not an aberration.”
Additional Focus Areas
Australia: National Response to Bondi Shootings and Gun Policy
[17:10–23:36]
- PM Anthony Albanese apologizes for not responding robustly to anti-Semitism and announces a gun buyback (evoking Port Arthur precedent) and toughening of hate speech laws.
- Arti Bessegari: “The government’s five-point plan includes provisions to toughen hate speech laws, crack down on Islamic preachers, and make it easier to cancel visas.” [18:58]
- National unity emphasized; criticisms persist from Jewish community and opposition.
Angola: US Investment and Geopolitical Competition
[32:53–39:43]
- $753 million from US for Angola’s Lobito Corridor railway, reflecting competition with Chinese infrastructure projects.
- Marisa Lorenzo: “Angola is very happy with the US involvement... This is the legacy [President] Lorenzo wants.” [38:18]
- The US seeks efficient mineral exports and to diminish reliance on Chinese-built networks.
- Angola remains pragmatic, playing “all sides.”
Media Shifts: Oscars Move to YouTube
[53:43–58:43]
- Oscars to stream for free on YouTube starting 2029, reflecting changing media consumption and declining TV viewership.
- Karen Krasanovich: “It just makes me deliriously happy because it means that people can finally watch it and watch it easily all over the world.” [53:47]
- Offers new production flexibility; marks a milestone in the migration from traditional television.
Architecture & Design
[47:43–53:09]
- Expansion of Guggenheim Bilbao halted after public protest.
- Park Hyatt Tokyo’s beloved design preserved in sensitive refurbishment.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
"It’s a rather uncomfortable fudge. Germany, Poland... have been left with something of a bloody nose. This is exactly the type of climate that Donald Trump has created inside the EU." — Nina dos Santos [04:01]
"If there is a West, it isn’t a monolith in the way that it perhaps once was.” — Greg Scruggs [06:10]
"There is some reassurance [for Taiwan] ... but a lot of uneasiness and uncertainty." — William Yang [08:02]
"There are no more illusions at the end of 2025 about such niceties as a values based system." — Greg Scruggs [11:16]
“The big problem... is that Europe has a powerful German... and not everybody wants to do things German style.” — Nina dos Santos [14:14]
“The American electorate elected this man twice now. It’s not an aberration.” — Greg Scruggs [16:10]
(Referring to Oscars moving to YouTube) “It just makes me deliriously happy because it means that people can finally watch it and watch it easily all over the world.” — Karen Krasanovich [53:47]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 03:32–05:56: EU’s Ukraine deal, European fractures (Nina dos Santos)
- 05:56–07:24: US shifting support, narrower foreign policy focus (Greg Scruggs)
- 07:24–10:28: US/Taiwan arms, China deals, strategic anxieties (William Yang)
- 10:28–13:18: Transactional foreign policy, US & Venezuela/Taiwan parallels (Greg Scruggs)
- 13:18–15:58: EU struggles for leadership, implications for multilateralism (Nina dos Santos)
- 15:58–17:08: Looking past 2029—lasting changes in US politics (Greg Scruggs)
- 17:10–23:36: Australia’s gun policy and responses to hate speech (Arti Bessegari)
- 32:53–39:43: US investment in Angola, minerals, Belt & Road rivalry (Marisa Lorenzo)
- 47:43–53:09: Architecture: Guggenheim Bilbao expansion halted, Park Hyatt Tokyo refurb (Tim Abrams)
- 53:43–58:43: Oscars move to YouTube, impact on industry/media (Karen Krasanovich)
Summary
This episode captures the growing sense of uncertainty within traditional Western alliances as Europe and the US recalibrate their roles on the global stage. With transactional approaches eclipsing values-based policy and old multilateral frameworks tested by new regionalisms, the West finds itself both reactive and redefining, especially in response to the resurgence of Donald Trump and the assertiveness of Asian and African actors. Current events in Australia, Angola, media, and the arts reinforce the theme: the Western-led order is adapting, fracturing, and renegotiating its relevance for a new era.