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- [00:04]
Arti Bessegari
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
- [00:38]
Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on the 19th of December, 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up.
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Andrew Muller
Today we approved a decision to provide 90 billion euros to Ukraine. And Ukraine will only repay this loan.
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Theo Usherwood
Once Russia face reparations.
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Emma Nelson
Europe gives the green light to a help fund for Ukraine, but without using Russian assets. We'll ask did the EU find its global feat in 2025? And assess the diverging priorities within the west, including the explosion of traditional structures by the White House. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, we hear about the Australian prime minister's plans to address hate speech in the aftermath of the Bondi shootings. And we'll ask why Washington is interested in investing in Angola.
- [01:57]
Andrew Muller
Plus, and the Oscar goes to why.
- [02:01]
Emma Nelson
The Oscars are disappearing from our TV screens and heading to YouTube. Plus the papers and the latest architecture news, too. That's all coming up on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. The social media platform TikTok and its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, are to sell the company's US assets to do a joint venture led by American investors. The bank of Japan has raised the interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.75%. It's the highest level in 30 years, still far below that of other major economies. And thousands of Bulgarians have protested against the outgoing government calling for fair elections and judicial reform. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, as 2025 winds down, both the US and Europe have been forced to take stock of their standing in the world. The year began with seismic changes with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. It ends with a deal from the European Union to help Ukraine. So where do Western priorities now lie and how do we solve problems? Well, I'm joined now in the studio by Nino dos Santos, international broadcast correspondent and former CNN Europe editor. And on the line from SE Greg Scruggs, who's Monocle's Seattle correspondent, and in San Francisco, William Yang, who's senior Northeast Asia analyst for the International Crisis Group. Good morning to all three of you.
- [03:30]
Nina dos Santos
Good morning.
- [03:32]
Greg Scruggs
Good morning, Emma.
- [03:33]
William Yang
Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
Good to have you with us. Nina, let's bring ourselves up to date with what's happened overnight. There has been a deal, 3am The European Union agreeing to lend Ukraine more than $100 billion over the next two years to fund its war with Russia, but failing to agree on a plan to use FR Russian assets. So it's a bit of a fudge, but this is a question that I'm going to ask all of you now, beginning with you. Where does the west stand at the end of 2025?
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Nina dos Santos
I think it depends on where you are in the world and where you are in Europe as well. Because remember that this deal, as you pointed out, is a rather uncomfortable fudge. And it's left Germany, Poland and some of the other EU countries that were arguing desperately to mobilize these frozen Russian assets to send a big signal to Russia that the war in Ukraine needs to and it needs to stop in Ukraine before it bleeds into European territory. They have been left with something of a bloody nose. And what we've seen is divisions between European countries. Now, what happened overnight in this summit that ended at 3am in the morning was that essentially France and Italy took a pass and allowed US Diplomatic lobbying against mobilizing these frozen Russian assets to win. In the end of the day, it was an uncomfortable deal that was reached. There are some others. Yes, it's going to be EU taxpayers will have to sort of borrow money and give 90 billion euros, as you said, $106 billion to Ukraine to help it over the next couple of years. By the way, that's not enough for Ukraine. They apparently need 65 billion euros to fund their budget every single year for the next two years. So as you can see already on the numbers, that's unsatisfactory. But not all 27 EU member states actually signed up to this. Predictably, Hungary, Slovakia, and also the Czech Republic will not be participating in this loan. So as you can see already the div are there. And this is exactly the type of climate that Donald Trump has created inside the eu. I was in Berlin a couple of weeks ago, sitting next to the head of one of the biggest foundations in Germany, somebody who was born in East Berlin, and he was just shaking his head, saying, in Germany, this was the boundary of the Cold War. When I was young, I grew up behind the Iron Curtain in this very city. And we are utterly terrified by the US Abandonment of the West.
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Emma Nelson
Greg, let's go to you in Seattle. That U.S. abandonment of the west, as we just heard from Nina there, that idea that the west itself could be abandoned, if that makes sense.
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Greg Scruggs
Well, all we have to do is compare the figures. While the Europeans were putting together this billions and billions for Ukraine, the US Congress was also busy this week. They passed the National Defense Authorization Act. This is the annual spending bill to fund the military. And there is some money for Ukraine. It is a paltry $400 million that's orders of magnitude less than what European allies are putting on the table. And it compares to just less than two years ago when supplemental aid bill for Ukraine was more in the $14 billion category. So it really depends if one considers the war that Ukraine is fighting, a war for the West. Right. And I think that is the, the philosophical decision that the current White House just doesn't feel is necessarily the case, or at least that if there is a West, it isn't a monolith that in the way that it perhaps once was. And certainly in this hemisphere, that is the, you know, the new focus rather is this hemisphere that the the US continues to @ least the current administration see a role for itself in geopolitics, but one that's more narrowly focused on.
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Emma Nelson
The Western hemisphere and indeed the narrow to you, William in San Francisco, because In the last 24 hours, we now have seen Taiwan taking the spotlight because the Trump administration has announced an 11 billion arms sales deal to Taiwan. It's the largest US weapons package for the island in its history. It's the second such package since Trump came into into power. Is there a sense from Taiwan that it feels now better protected because the US has, has brought it under its wing, or is there that continued sense that as we've heard from Greg and as we've heard from Nina, anything could.
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William Yang
Change? I think this is a temporary reassurance coming from Washington for sure. You know, like given for the fact that you mentioned about the size of this announcement and also how it happened just a few weeks after the first military sales package that was announced last month. But, you know, I think we need to remember that it's been almost a year since Trump returned to the White House, and for the first 11 months of he's returned to the White House, actually, Taiwan was very, very anxious about how the Trump administration might approach and handle relationship with Taipei because on the campaign trail since last year, he's not been very, you know, like, I mean, kind of like low key about his skepticism about why the United States should continue to be committed to defend Taiwan, as Joe Biden set four times when he was in, when he was the US President. And so, you know, I think the fact that Trump has continued to prioritize, stabilizing relationship with China and also trying to achieve that great trade deal with China that he could then, you know, domestically sell as a success and frame himself as this incredible leader that is able to, you know, reach something with China that other US Presidents that could not have achieved. So in that case, you know, this is a temporary, I think, relief for Taipei. But coming up is the state visit by Trump to Beijing in April. And I think in the interim period, Taipei will continue to very closely monitor actually how Beijing tries to dangle carrots in front of Trump and how the Trump administration might actually react. Because in recent months, we've also seen some of the decisions that were made by his administration being viewed by many as temporary concessions, including approving the sales of some of the powerful semiconductor chips for AI development that Chinese companies are desperately in need to try to actually catch up in the air race with China, with the U.S. so, you know, I think there's still a lot of uneasiness and uncertainty that is lying ahead for Taipei, but at least for the time being, there is some reassurance that the Trump administration is not considering entirely abandoning Taiwan just.
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Emma Nelson
Yet. William, thank you for that. Let's go back to you, Greg, in Seattle. That idea that the carrots that Beijing is going to dangle in front of Donald Trump in 2026 is rather emblematic of the way things have gone that we have seen in the last year the almost wholesale abandonment of a values based decision making process. And we're seeing an awful lot more based on commerce and deals. I mean, we only look at what's happening in Taiwan, but also only what's happening in Belarus. There's going to be, or there is by all accounts going to be a major deal to restore relations with the United States. That is not done on the values based scale, is it.
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Nina dos Santos
Greg?
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Greg Scruggs
No. And I don't think there are no more illusions at the end of 2025 about such niceties as a values based system. I mean, a rules based order. A good example is the ongoing tensions, the pressure campaign on Venezuela, right. This Operation Southern Spear, as it's called, which has ricochets both to, you know, what we've been discussing with, with Ukraine as well as Taiwan. Actually, you know, Venezuela is currently under a partial blockade of those vessels which are on a sanctions list. And Venezuela has appealed this to United nations this week. I believe we talked about it, or rather, you know, colleagues talked about it on Monaco radio yesterday. And that's a predictable response. But, but I mean it's, it's, it's performative, right? Like the Maduro regime doesn't have any expect expectation that some kind of ruling from the UN Security Council, putting aside the fact that the US could veto, is somehow going to lead the enormous US naval presence off the coast of Venezuela to suddenly return to their home ports. And so what instead we're seeing is I think, a pressure campaign that has multiple goals. Right. There's the obvious sort of bugaboo around Maduro. But I, I have been most intrigued by actually Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who sees Caracas as the path to get to Havana and the possibility of regime change not just in Venezuela, but also Cuba through the oil embargo, reducing energy supplies to the island as well. And then lastly, to connect it to Taiwan, I was reading some fascinating legal analysis that this US blockade, if indeed it results in a change of government in Caracas, could be a kind of precedent setting for the Chinese were they to ever blockade Taiwan, which is considered a step that they might take in an eventual attempt to take the.
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Emma Nelson
Island. Thank you for that, Greg. Just turning to you, Nina, and looking ahead to 2026 and back to Europe. We've seen from, heard from both William and Greg that these incredibly volatile gestures of pivot that the United States is doing, and one wonders where somewhere like the European Union sits with all this, because at the beginning of the year, I remember someone saying to me that the European Union needs to stop behaving as if it's sitting in a Viennese tea room drinking coffee house. It should stop behaving like it's in a Viennese coffee house with a long coffee and a nice glass of water, reading the papers and thinking its way through and it needs to behave a bit more as if it's in Starbucks, that sense that it actually needs to get a grip. No Sachet Torta and Azakha is having a cake too. Now there is that sense, isn't there, that even with that decision made last night, that it hasn't actually moved that much further in terms of the way that it grasps big.
- [14:15]
Nina dos Santos
Problems. Look, the big problem that Europe has at the moment is that it has a powerful German in the figurehead of Ursula von der Leyen as a second term European Commission president who has sort of centralized power and you know, very Much represents the CDU German model. And Germany also has a CDU chancellor who wants to friedish Merz, put his stamp on things and, you know, be pragmatic, get stuff done. It's the biggest economy in Europe. It's the most powerful political player. And Europe needs a sense of leadership. But not everybody wants to do things German style. And this has been a problem that's been brewing for quite some time. If you look at, for instance, what was agreed overnight, as I said before, there was that, as you called it, EU fudge on Ukraine. But the other thing we should talk about, and this relates to Latin America that Greg was talking about, is that they also kick the Mercosur deal down the can until at least the start of next year, which speaks to this sort of unraveling of the idea of multilateralism itself. As a project, Donald Trump has been able to sort of pick off various countries with bilateral commercial deals. As we've covered over the last year. He's going to be in a rush to perhaps do more of that. There's a fear ahead of the US Midterms in a year's time. And so the EU itself is one of those big multilateral consensus driven largely projects. And so the actual model it has is kind of under threat. And that's something that they really have to get to grips with as an existential crisis at a time when obviously their economy is in the doldrums and it's getting rocked by US Trade.
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Emma Nelson
Policy. Finally, quick question to you, Greg. I need you to stare into your crystal ball past 20th January 2029. What provision is being made for a post Trump America? Sorry about.
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Greg Scruggs
That. That's quite one to throw at me. 2029, I'm barely grappling with the fact that we're heading into the new year. I mean, the, the way it's, the way I've been understanding it is that you cannot just dial the clock back, right? So enough of the changes being made by the current administration, whether that's domestically cutting the federal workforce drastically, something I've been covering for Monocle and elsewhere, or changing essentially its fundamental relationships abroad, military posture, alliances, that sort of thing. Even if you have the most conciliatory Democratic President imaginable on January 20, 2029, there does seem to be some fundamental changes that the American electorate elected this man twice now. It's not an aberration. There is something in the American body politic that the rest of the world has come to understand, appreciate, and perhaps get a grip with that it's.
- [17:09]
Emma Nelson
Changed. Greg Scruggs, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Seattle. My thanks also to William Yang on the line from San Francisco and Nina Dos Santos in the studio right here in London. You're listening to the Globalist, Eight seventeen, I should say eighteen seventeen in Sydney. Seven seventeen a.m. here in London. Now more funerals have been taking place of those killed in the shootings at Bondi beach this weekend. Meanwhile, the Australian Prime Minister has announced that Australia is to establish a national gun buyback scheme in response to the mass shooting at Bondi Beach. Well, to tell us more, I'm joined now by Monocle's Canberra correspondent Arti Bessegari. Good morning or good afternoon. Good evening I should say ati.
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Arti Bessegari
It'S kind of, it's good evening. Hi Emma, nice to meet.
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Emma Nelson
You. Thank you so much for joining us. Just if you could tell us whose funerals have taken place recently.
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Arti Bessegari
Please. So you're right, the funerals have started. Earlier today. The funerals for Boris and Sophia German were held. They the couple that were filmed trying to overpower the gunman. They were captured in dash cam footage by cars driving past. They were long time Bondi locals and about to celebrate 35 years of marriage. Funerals of two other victims were also held today and yesterday the funerals for two more were held. The first one so that the youngest victim, a young 10 year old girl called Matilda, she was farewelled and also Rabbi Eli.
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Emma Nelson
Schlanger. And in the middle of all this you have this moment of profound mourning. The space that needs to be created and the politicians are trying to pick their way around it. What are they doing.
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Arti Bessegari
Now? It is, it is a. Yeah, a little bit fraught. So as you say, the government has announced a gun buyback scheme. That was just a couple of hours ago actually the government of Anthony Albanese they yesterday announced a five point plan that they've got in the works. Now this is in the context of being quite resolutely criticised by the opposition, by the Jewish community for not having done enough in the lead up to the attack to clamp down on rising anti Semitism and also for generally not responding to concerns about hate speech and hate mongering. So their five point plan includes provisions to toughen hate speech laws, crack down on Islamic preachers they say are spreading hatred and also make it easier to cancel or reject visas. Now some of these are based partially in the recommendations of the anti Semitism envoy Jillian Siegel who was appointed at the start of the year and she released her report in July, which is pretty controversial, as it included suggestions of placing limits on media reporting and the arts and education. And the government was criticised, though, for not formally responding to her recommendations or putting any of them in place. And in terms of the gun buyback scheme, this echoes very strongly the gun buyback scheme that was put in place by the Australian government in the wake of the last mass shooting event 30 years ago in Tasmania, the Port Arthur massacre. So that was when gun laws were toughened. So this time around, I mean, details are pretty scant, but they. We expect that the guns will be. People will be financially compensated for handing in their guns, surrendering their guns, and then the costs would be shared between the federal and state.
- [20:45]
Emma Nelson
Governments. The way that this is being handled by the Australian government seems, as you have just laid out, seems to be a determination to do things in a positive and more constructive way to end hate speech. Also to create a gun buyback scheme rather than just clamping down on gun ownership. Is this a conscious decision to be more.
- [21:06]
Arti Bessegari
Constructive? I would absolutely say it's a response to the criticism they fielded for not having done enough. In fact, Anthony Albanese yesterday apologised and admitted he had not done enough to respond to the concerns from the Jewish community. At the same time, though, there is just a little disquiet. The opposition has been pretty comprehensive in its assessment. In fact, the opposition leader, Susan Lee, she echoed Benjamin Netanyahu's comments that Anthony Albanese hadn't been strong enough on protecting Jews. She came out with that within maybe 12 hours of the incident. Now, the Liberals have now put out a suite of recommendations. They've called for stronger counter terrorism laws, more powers to deport and strip citizenship from people, and they now want Parliament reconvened to debate and pass them. Parliament's currently on hiatus for summer and isn't actually due back till the start of February. So we're right now heading right into, like, European August when everything shuts.
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Emma Nelson
Down. The. The issue now is that I think there's been a question of national identity as well, becoming a sort of a priority here for Australia. There have been comments saying that Australia is trying to shift the threshold. We have no time for organizations where the mission to hate Australia and to hate fellow Australians has come out. That idea is, how is this now becoming a more general Australian issue rather than something which is, for example, to do with individual gun laws and hate.
- [22:39]
Arti Bessegari
Crime? That's a really, really interesting question. I mean, I think it's quite early in the piece to say Australia's had a non discriminatory migration scheme for many decades now. It used to have the White Australia policy which was formally rescinded in 1974. And I think it was so controversial that any moves to move back towards any kind of migration scheme that is discriminatory would be quite controversial and would bring, you know, would evoke some quite potent reminders of the past that we maybe want to forget. You know, I'm actually quite proud of Australians. You know, we are not a nation that is intrinsically divided. I, you know, all the calls that I'm seeing are ones for peace and unity and solidarity and to come together and to overwhelm those other divisions in our society that way.
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Emma Nelson
Artificial. Gary, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Canberra. Still to come on today's program.
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Andrew Muller
We mostly learned this year that returning to Earth's most powerful office, America's least qualified individual and eight years older and about eight times crankier than last time round, was going to go pretty much as might have been.
- [23:56]
Emma Nelson
Expected. Andrew Muller will be here with what we learned. Stay with us. On the.
- [23:59]
Arti Bessegari
Globalist craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office, Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our.
- [24:33]
Emma Nelson
Craft. 07:24 Here in London, which is where we're basing our paper review today. Joining me is Theo Usherwood, his news editor for the Press Association. Good morning, Theo. How are.
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Theo Usherwood
You? Very well. Lovely to speak to.
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Emma Nelson
You. Are you ready for.
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Theo Usherwood
Christmas? Yes, just about. We have the tree up and yeah, it's looking.
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Emma Nelson
Festive. Good, we're looking forward to it. Right, okay, let's start with a diplomatic announcement. Christian Turner is the new UK Ambassador to the United States, a post vacated by Peter Mandelson, a disgraced Peter Mandelson, a few months ago. Who is he? He's Christian.
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Theo Usherwood
Tanner. So he's a career diplomat. He has worked his way up through the fast track Foreign Office scheme. He was recommended by the most senior civil servant in the Foreign Office, Orly Robbins, who you'll remember from Brexit, and he was the negotiation on the British side. Keir Starmer had been tempted to make a political appointment, potentially bringing in his business adviser. But the Foreign Office has won the day getting Christian Turner, somebody who's been been sent to Pakistan to represent Britain. He's also worked in Washington back in 2007 and as a much junior level. So this is somebody who has earned his spurs within the diplomatic trade and doesn't carry the baggage of a political appointment. And that is especially of note given what happened with Lord Mandelson, who was very much a political appointment but then had to leave the.
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Emma Nelson
Post. Everybody is asking whether Christian Turner is a man who can whisper Trump. Madison could. The deputy, James Roscoe could as well, but by all accounts did not apply. Is Christian Turner going to be able to do the impossible, which is to keep Donald Trump on.
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Theo Usherwood
Side? That's a very good question. He doesn't necessarily come with the political experience, but he is highly rated within the Foreign Office. We're told he's somebody who's not afraid to build his own base, his own following. He's willing to take risks. He had gained more than 250,000 followers on X during his secondment to Pakistan. There are photos of him with dignitaries in Kenya doing various poses. So he's not a shy man just because he's somebody who's come from the civil service mold. And the big challenge is going to be obviously, as you say, to keep Trump on side when it comes to the final negotiations to sort a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The fact that the Keir Starmer's trade deal with the United States, that were the heads of terms that we got in the, at the beginning of the summer, that hasn't necessarily transferred into political reality, especially when it comes to issues around steel, around tech. Can Christian Turner get into the Oval Office and try and hammer out some better terms of conditions and find a detail to get that, to get better, a better deal essentially for, for Britain with.
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Emma Nelson
America. Let's move, Theo to a story in the Guardian. It's the Africa cup of nations starting off on Sunday. Morocco is doing its absolute level best to promote a very beautiful image of itself. Yet there are issues in terms of the way that people are being.
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Theo Usherwood
Treated. Yes, this is a story I picked out because I didn't necessarily think it would be. It's, it's not rushed across the papers. The Guardian, I think quite rightly have decided to put focus on it. Of course, the African nation, you know, African nations is incredibly, it's a prominent tournament. Many European based players leave their clubs to take part in it and it's gaining, gaining an increasing popularity and following to rival perhaps the European Championships, maybe not quite on a par with the World cup of next year. But the guardians highlighting the arbitrary detention not just of any group but of Gen Z protesters in the country. And there's some incredibly powerful testimony that they've. That they're reporting from Amnesty International, which is saying. Which described one mother saying that her son was pulled out of a snack bar where he was having dinner and arrested and detained. He was so badly hit during the arrest, he even lost some teeth. And of course, this isn't something, you know, this isn't a phenomenon that necessarily just relates to Morocco. Other countries have had their human rights records scrutinised when sporting events or the spotlight is suddenly thrown on.
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Emma Nelson
Them. Finally, let's talk about a story that's come out of the Times in the last couple of hours. I'm not sure how anybody feels about having their photograph taken with their lover, but maybe if you are having a bit of a naughty date with someone who you shouldn't be sitting next to in public, don't go to a restaurant in.
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Theo Usherwood
Sicily. No. And this reminded me of the Times had another story, but they had with the woman who was featured in the Kiss cam at the Coldplay concert. And then of course, Chris Martin made a joke about the fact as they tried to duck away that perhaps they should have been doing something. And another story along the same lines from Sicily where a husband is suing the rest restaurant because he was having a clandestine date with his lover. And then the owners posted a video on TikTok where he could be seen with a another woman. The man, it should be said was had told his wife that he was having dinner with colleagues and that cover story collapsed and now his wife is leaving him and he is now suing the.
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Emma Nelson
Restaurant. I hope the restaurant was good. I hope the meal was delicious. Theo and Theo ushered. Thank you so much for joining us on the line and a very merry Christmas to you. Listening to the Globalist. The social media platform TikTok and its Chinese parent company ByteDance are to sell the company's US assets to a joint venture led by American investors. The move will enable TikTok to avoid a US government ban. The bank of Japan has raised its interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.75%. It's the highest level in 30 years, but still far below that of other major.
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Marisa Lorenzo
Economies.
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Emma Nelson
Economies. Democrats in the House Oversight Committee in the US Congress have released more images from Jeffrey Epstein's estate. A number of wealthy, powerful men are pictured, as well as what appears to be women's passports. And thousands of Bulgarians have protested against the outgoing Parliament calling for fair elections and judicial reform. Demonstrators want an end to what they describe as endemic corruption in the European Union's poorest member state. This is the Globalist. Stay.
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Arti Bessegari
Tuned. It's.
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Emma Nelson
What? 8:32am in Luanda, 7:32 here in London. Now, last month's summit between the European and African unions was a high point in the relationship between the EU and its AU partners. It also gave the host country, Angola, a moment in the spotlight. But it is now Washington that is making a big play for influence in the region, especially in Angola itself. Money is pouring in from the United States and I'm joined now from Johannesburg by Marisa Lorenzo, who's a political and economic risk analyst with a focus on Angola. Welcome back, Marisa. Good to have.
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Marisa Lorenzo
You. Good morning. Thanks so much for having me back.
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Emma Nelson
On. So how much money is coming in from the United States and what is it being used.
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Marisa Lorenzo
For? So the United States announced through the DFC, with guarantees by the DBSA that it is giving 700, it's committing $753 million towards financing the railway rehabilitation. I think at this point it's really important to kind of understand what the card actually is to, because we hear about it so much, but there's so many moving parts to it. And this is for one very specific part. So the Lobito Corridor Development Project, which is the full name, spans three countries, Angola, the DRC and Zambia. The reason why Angola gets the lion's share of attention is because the majority of the project is focused on the Benguela Railway, which goes from the west of Angola right through to the east with the borders of the DRC and Zambia. It also includes the Lobito port which is in Angola. So this funding is going specifically towards the rehabilitation of the Benguela Railway, which in its current state has derailments about 10 times a year, which is very, very high. And also in its current state is not efficient to transport bulk minerals, which is why Washington is being involved and what this upgrade and the interest from global partners is really all.
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Emma Nelson
About. Indeed. Now this whole idea started with the Biden administration when they were trying to move into areas which China had occupied before and now sort of signals a much harder geo economic approach to the likes of Angola. How welcome is.
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Marisa Lorenzo
It? Yes, I think it's really good to point out that this stood spot underneath the Biden administration because, you know, so, so often in politics and I think especially with the U.S. because Trump, you know, really comes in with a bang and it looks like he's breaking everything and starting things afresh, we have seen continuity in this which obviously would have been a relief for Angola. I think specifically securing this funding was, is also a very big moment for the country for two reasons. What really struck me about seeing the news yesterday was that it was framed as really positive news coming after months of delay. But then there was no real explanation as in what has the delay been? And what we can see, because the Development bank of South Africa or Southern Africa has been brought on, which is the dbsa, is that somebody. Well, the Angolan state needed to take on guarantees for the funding that the DFC is going to put up, which tells us that Washington has been a little bit nervous about backing this project. But if can get credit risk guarantees, which it's now gotten through the dbsa, it might be more willing to move ahead with it then for the Angolan administration currently, which is led by President Lorenzo, he's really tried to make the Libito Corridor Development project his legacy and he's running out of time. He's been in office since 2017. He's due to leave office in 2027 and he really, really wants us to be, you know, the hallmark of his presidency as the president who pushed forward this project. I think just one thing also I wanted to point out is that since the end of the Angolan Civil War in 2002, there has been talk about reviving this railway, which was actually a colonial project and built in the early 1900s. China actually came in between 2006 and 2014 and rehabilitated part of the Benguela railway. So this has always been a kind of really strategic and focused project for global partners, again to facilitate the export of bulk minerals in a shorter route rather than coming through South.
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Emma Nelson
Africa. In the long term, what does Washington want in.
- [36:48]
Marisa Lorenzo
Return? Well, this would help the US just purely because of where it's located and it would also make the export of minerals a lot faster, which, you know, just kind of makes it more efficient. So if we look at Southern and Central Africa at the moment, most of the minerals are being exported through South Africa, which is, you know, moving in the opposite direction. But because export infrastructure is not well developed in sub Saharan Africa, except for South Africa, this has been very, very difficult to change. We've seen China move in, you know, from the early 2000 and tens coming in and kind of taking over a lot of that export infrastructure, building roads, supporting railway. And what we've seen actually since the 1960s is that China has managed to get a very big hold on Zambia because that was when it built a tazar railway to facilitate exports. Again bypassing South Africa than an apartheid state and going out through the east, giving it the shortest route to China. The US kind of wants to do the same thing. It wants to get a shorter route through the Atlantic. And that's what Angola can offer it. And this is how it thinks it might be able to get its hands on more so called critical minerals, since that's the phrase of the day, but also not have to rely on Chinese built.
- [37:58]
Emma Nelson
Networks. It places Angola in a particular position, doesn't it? Because there are now the U.S. as you mentioned, China and indeed Europe and indeed South Africa are all wanting a slice of Angola. I mean, where does this leave the country which, which will have to give up something because no one does anything for nothing. But at the same time has this sort of, this pick of.
- [38:19]
Marisa Lorenzo
Suitors. Well, actually Angola is very happy with the US involvement. So you know, historically there's always talk about Angola being aligned with Russia, which is incorrect. Obviously it was very closely aligned with Cuba, which was then aligned with the Soviet Union. But what we really saw under President Lorenzo when he came into office in 2017 is he was very, very eager to improve ties with the us. And this has been a core focus of his time in office. I think this is actually the main legacy. You know, when we sort of assess maybe 10 years after he's left office, this is the legacy that he would have left. Taking Angola out of, you know, only being seen as a kind of Soviet country to one that is much more closely aligned with the us. I mean he even got a face to face meeting with Joe Biden. Joe Biden was the first 13 US president to ever visit the country when he visited last year. So for Angola, in terms of the picker suitors, they are very, very happy at the moment with the us. Of course, the risk, and I think this is where the DOC was hesitant, is that because there is an election coming up in 2027, there's no guarantee of policy continuity. We could get, if say the ruling party, the MPA wins the election again, we could get in another president. And because presidents have a lot of power vested in them in Angola, it could invite policy change and see a pivot away from the us. But I think like most countries, Angola will always play all sides. That suited. But definitely for the moment it's very happy about being one of the US's most and actually very few trusted allies in.
- [39:44]
Emma Nelson
Africa. Marissa Lorenzo, political and economic risk analyst in Johannesburg. Thank you so much. For joining us on Monocle Radio. As is Friday, it's time for Andrew Muller's what We Learned. But instead of what we've established in the last seven days, it's what's happened in the last 52.
- [40:12]
Andrew Muller
Weeks. We learned this week that the producers felt that we should try to extend ourselves. Oh no, our response exactly. We learned that with year's end approaching, we were being encouraged to take a longer view. And instead of, as usual, linking three or four vaguely amusing items from the week's news with silly sound effects and choruses of Monocle staff having their time.
- [40:43]
Tim Abrams
Wasted. I have all the time in.
- [40:45]
Andrew Muller
The world for you, of.
- [40:46]
Emma Nelson
Course. It's my.
- [40:47]
Tim Abrams
Favorite. See you there in just a.
- [40:52]
Andrew Muller
Second. Thanks all. Appreciate it. We should instead reflect on what we learned in all of 2025. After all, a lot of stuff did happen, and you'd reckon that between it the sum of human knowledge should have been enlarged somewhat. We learned back in April, for example, of the futility of waging a trade war against remote islands inhabited by nobody at.
- [41:15]
Karen Krasanovich
All. More bizarre still, the remains remote Australian territory of Heard island also tariffed.
- [41:21]
Emma Nelson
10%. Those tariffs may be hard to.
- [41:25]
Karen Krasanovich
Collect, though, because its main inhabitants are.
- [41:28]
Andrew Muller
Penguins, a proposition one might have assumed did not require empirical testing. But every day's a school day, and we can now tick that one off in the hope of underpinning this lesson with some pertinent numbers, or at least padding out another 20 seconds of this week week's monologue, we did contact the press Office of U.S. customs and Border Protection, asking for some figures re how much they had actually collected in the way of tariffs on imports from the Heard and McDonald Islands. But they merely sighed somewhat wearily and hung up on us, which I think we can all agree is no way to respond to the honest inquiries of diligent reporters seeking to assiduously represent the interests of their.
- [42:08]
Tim Abrams
Listeners. Come on, just get on with.
- [42:12]
Andrew Muller
It, you know, I was going to say right here. So without further ado, but just for that impertinence, here's some further.
- [42:20]
Emma Nelson
Ado. I can't remember if I looked at the early.
- [42:22]
Nina dos Santos
Eyes. I'm actually quite.
- [42:27]
Andrew Muller
Worried there's more where that came from if you don't behave yourselves. Anyway, we mostly learned this year that returning to Earth's most powerful office, America's least qualified individual and eight years older and about eight times crankier than last time round, was going to go pretty much as might have been expected. I'm really good at this stuff. Your countries are going to hell or not. For we learned that President Trump, seeking perhaps, who knows, to atone for the division and suspicion he had sown on his previous watch, was now absolutely focused on bringing peace to our rancorous world, including between countries which had never fought with, conceivably never heard of each other, Cambodia and Armenia. It was just starting and it was a bad.
- [43:18]
Emma Nelson
One. Think of.
- [43:19]
Andrew Muller
That. We also learned that the president was no less resolute in his program of domestic reform, for which he also found the time to furnish his own.
- [43:28]
Karen Krasanovich
Metaphor. The dramatic images, what was once the East Wing of the White House House, now a pile of.
- [43:34]
Andrew Muller
Rubble. For we learned that the White House was not the only American institution Trump was intent on demolishing, though he did at least spare the remnants of the rest of the US Federal government the redecoration of the ruins with what very strongly appeared the contents of a storage locker acquired in the auction of the effects of the late Uday.
- [43:54]
Karen Krasanovich
Hussein. You might have noticed some changes to the Oval Office since President Trump moved back in, specifically more and more gold ornaments on the walls and adorning the fireplace door frames outlined in gold.
- [44:06]
Andrew Muller
Paint. Anyway, we learned that the world would have to do substantially without US Foreign aid, US Security guarantees, US Environmental and climate programs. Honestly, pretty much any idea at all what the US was going to do, say or think from one day to the next. We learned basically that we would have to learn to live with the mightiest superpower ever, gathered beneath one flag, apparently doing foreign policy by flinging darts at a whirling.
- [44:32]
Emma Nelson
Globe. We need Greenland for national security.
- [44:37]
Andrew Muller
And even international security, and we're working.
- [44:40]
Emma Nelson
With everybody involved to try and get.
- [44:42]
Andrew Muller
It. What I'd like to see Canada become our 51st.
- [44:47]
Emma Nelson
State. And above all, China is operating the Panama.
- [44:52]
Andrew Muller
Canal. And we. We didn't give it to China, we gave it to Panama and we're taking it back. We have not learned when any of this is actually going to happen as such, but we have learned something about the preferred presidential time frame. But within about two weeks, I think we'll be able to say in American history, starting in about two weeks, we're building some brand new sections, large sections. I will make that decision, I would say, over the next two weeks. Our military.
- [45:21]
Emma Nelson
Equipment. This war would have been over.
- [45:23]
Andrew Muller
In two weeks, but we learned that we may not have that long to wait around for. If we learned One thing in 2025 about where all of the above and more besides may be headed, we may have learned it from Albania, who visited upon us this, That being diella Albania's new Minister of State for Artificial intelligence, who is herself an entirely AI apparition. And while this audio only medium cannot do proper justice to Diella's splendid traditional Albanian costume, here's some traditional Albanian music while you imagine it. We saw subsequently learned that Diella was to be endowed with not fewer than 83 parliamentary assistants who will keep notes on parliamentary proceedings and somewhat more ominously offer advice to their flesh and blood colleagues. Though it is not clear when we can expect this advice to tilt towards council that we wretched organic lifeforms submit to being pulped for biomass to fuel our new chatbot overlords, or even indeed, as in this instance, over ladies in two weeks possibly. It is arguable of course, on the strength of humankind's endeavours this year, that it's about all we deserve. We shall check out of 2025 by putting this proposition to the general muttered.
- [46:53]
Theo Usherwood
Agreement.
- [46:54]
Andrew Muller
Crew for Monocle Radio, I'm Andrew.
- [46:59]
Emma Nelson
Mul. Thank you, Andrew. And Andrew will be back in 2026 with more what we learned. You're listening to the.
- [47:10]
Arti Bessegari
Globalist. Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies, bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence. All to elevate you. UBS banking is our.
- [47:44]
Emma Nelson
Craft. Time quick for a quick helping of design and architecture news on the globe list. Let's hear now from Tim Abrams, who's contributing editor to the Architectural Record, coming to us from Oxford. Good morning Tim, how are.
- [48:01]
Tim Abrams
You? Good morning Emma, how are.
- [48:03]
Emma Nelson
You? Very well, thank you. And let's talk about Guggenheim and indeed Frank Gehry. Because at one point there was talk of another Guggenheim and it's not going to happen.
- [48:15]
Tim Abrams
Now. There are multiple Guggenheim's around the world. There was going to be another Guggenheim Bilbao. The idea was that the 1997 project which put the post industrial Bilbao back onto the tourist map and drew in millions of visitors and revived the economy of the ailing industrial city. The idea was this has been so successful. Let's have another one here. Let's have another Guggenheim Bilbao. And the idea was perhaps unfortunately to expand it into what can only be described as one of the most beautiful areas in northern Spain, the Urdu Bay region, which is an incredible natural reserve. Now there's been plans for a long time in the north of Spain amongst governments to try and expand the tourist offering into this region and The Guggenheim, because of its success, was seen as a means of entering into this arena. This beautiful area made up of marshes. It's the estuary of the Oka river, surrounded by small hills, a unique landscape, a bird watchers paradise, ospreys, Eurasian spoonbill, great bitterns. And the idea was that two small, smaller museums, projects would be secreted into this landscape very gently and the Guggenheim could spread into this area and tourism could expand out from the central Bilbao area. Unfortunately, though, it also required a major tunnel which would have been constructed through a mountain separating Greater Bilbao with the Yudabai estuary. There was huge protests locally and. And they have been successful. So in the year that we lost Frank Gehry, we're also going to be. Who died at the age of 93, we're also going to be losing the expansion of the Guggenheim Bilbao into its more greener parts of northern Spain. So I think on balance, perhaps not a huge.
- [50:15]
Emma Nelson
Loss. Okay, good news. Right, let's move to at one of the most intensely scrutinized refurbishments of a luxury hotel, the Park Hyatt in Tokyo. If you are a fan of Lost in Translation, you will be in love with this in this hotel. It is much, much beloved by us here at Monaco. And the big question was, were they going to do the job.
- [50:39]
Tim Abrams
Right? They were under extreme pressure when they were developing the Park Hyatt. Sofia Coppola herself was, when she was interviewed by the by Vogue about this, was really concerned that the unique qualities that she'd identified in the Park Hyatt hotel in Tokyo for the filming of Lost in Translation were going to be lost. I think she can be, although I haven't heard what she is, her thoughts on what actually was delivered. I think she's going to be happy. It's an incredibly sensitive adaptation. Effectively the building is. The hotel is the third character in that film. If you, if you can remember, it's. It's Bill Murray, Scarlett Johansson and the Park Hyatt. It's an amazing hotel just at the top of the Senjinku Park Tower in Tokyo. And the, the refurbishment which has been done has been successful, I would say by Patrick Juan and Sanjeev Manku. Very sensitive, keeping all the New York Grill Bar where they have that amazing scene where they talk, talk to each other about their lives. And everything that's been done has been to pump up and pimp up the rooms and the. And the central areas. Amazing libraries. An amazing library in the middle of this hotel, which Sofia Coppola makes great use of. That's all been kept, everything's been done. Hopefully people will still be able to go there and experience those amazing set pieces that the film.
- [52:17]
Emma Nelson
Captures. A very quick question, though, on whether this actually sets a precedent now for Japan to be less keen to knock things down and more keen to preserve what it.
- [52:26]
Tim Abrams
Has. Well, the Japanese experienced massive development and massive growth in the 60s and 70s. And that period of architecture, architecture has gone through, shall we say, a period of reappraisal. So I do think that it will be a sense of an attempt to preserve, an attempt to hold on to things. But then that's what makes Token, what makes Tokyo such an amazing city is energy and its eternal desire to expand and innovate. Having said that, these areas Japanese Tokyo's being into being understood for its values, and I think that's being reflected back in urban.
- [53:09]
Emma Nelson
Governance. Tim Abrams, contributing editor to the Architectural Record. Thank you so much for joining us. On Monocle Radio, you're listening to the Globalist. Now, the world's most famous awards to celebrate the big screen are leaving the small screen to go to arguably even smaller screens. From 2029, if you want to watch the Oscar Oscars, you'll have to go to YouTube. And I'm joined now from Chicago by the film critic and regular Monocle Radio contributor, Karen Krasanovich. A very good morning to Karen and thank you for joining us from.
- [53:43]
Karen Krasanovich
Chicago. That's my pleasure. Good morning to.
- [53:46]
Emma Nelson
You. Right, so tell us what's happening.
- [53:47]
Karen Krasanovich
Please. I am so excited about this. Now, I'm not one of these people that runs to YouTube and watches everything, although my electrician is. And I know that people love looking at YouTube and they watch it and they learn a lot from it. It's a real go to for people. And one of the things that is a struggle when you love movies the way I do, and I'm sure you do too, is you want to watch the Oscars and you can't. You have to. You don't have to log on somewhere or get an illegal stream or you've got to pay an extra thing or. And the fact that the Academy has made a deal with you with YouTube, which is actually quite financially good, I believe, for the Academy to move everything, not just the ceremony, but the red carpet, the technical awards and lots of other things that go along with the Oscar broadcast to YouTube for free, it just makes me deliriously happy because it means that people can finally watch it and watch it easily all over the world. And I think that that's incredibly important for the film industry. Right.
- [54:54]
Emma Nelson
What. I mean, obviously we're incredibly happy for you and indeed for your electrician, but what was, what was the reason behind going to YouTube rather than staying on the traditional small screen.
- [55:03]
Karen Krasanovich
Channels? Well, number one, the Oscar audience has been dropping now. Years ago I think it was 90, 98, 57 million viewers and it's dropped down to this year or there were 18 last year. Year 18.1. It's no longer in the top 10 of what people watch. You always used to be a real go to. Now people kind of don't care. And I think one of the reasons for that is because it's just too difficult to watch, too difficult to find a stream that's as it happens, you can get it afterwards. That's no problem. I think it's not only because of the ubiquitous nature of YouTube but also the fact that YouTube has a freshness about it as a flexibility and also doesn't really have its own production house. So there's a lot of creativity and possibilities here. And also. Well, they paid more, so that.
- [56:01]
Emma Nelson
Helps. And indeed. So how will this work.
- [56:04]
Karen Krasanovich
Financially? I'm not really quite sure they've worked all that out yet because there's so many different moving parts and also a lot of regional rights and things to be disentangled with others. Because I think it's been on ABC for quite some time or half a decade or something or. Yeah, actually no longer than that. But 2 billion people around the world will see it on YouTube and I'm sure that there will be ads and other things that will contribute to how it's being funded. So I think all of those niceties haven't been worked out yet. But I know that the Academy was looking quite actively this year for somebody to take this.
- [56:43]
Emma Nelson
On. And will it look.
- [56:44]
Karen Krasanovich
Different? No, I don't think it will. I think the structure of having the commentary and the red carpet first will probably be standard until YouTube may have several streams. You know, I think the flexibility is there. They'll have the stream for the people that are serious Oscar watchers and want an old fashioned quote unquote show. And there might be another Tiktoky style show possibly. There's no sense that it's going to be just one linear thing. So I think that it'll start out being very similar to what we expect. All the glamour, all the stars, all the access, probably more access. And then it will morph from.
- [57:29]
Emma Nelson
There. And finally, just looking at the general travel, the general direction of travel, of the movies at the moment, when we see the likes of Netflix trying to buy Warner Brothers. And now we go from the, you know, the television to online. What does this mean about the way that people will be watching movies? Because I know that the Netflix Warner Brothers issue has raised huge concerns about the amount of time that each movie will get on the big.
- [57:55]
Karen Krasanovich
Screen. Yeah, it's always a problem. It's been a problem for a long, long time about what's happening to our habit of watching things on the big screen when streaming is so much easier. And I think that this, I don't think this really plays into that. I think right now accessibility is more important for the Oscars. And I also think that we don't watch the Oscar event itself. Well, I mean, I do when I have a chance on a big screen. So the fact that accessibility, even on your, on your handheld or on your, on your watch possibly is better than not seeing it at all. But I think if we can just engage people and get them excited about the stories, the people that make the stories, the people that represent us in these stories, I think that's going to just be great guns for Hollywood across the.
- [58:44]
Emma Nelson
Board. Karen Krasanovich in Chicago, thank you so much for joining us on the line. And that's all the time we have for today's programme. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers, Anita Riota, Laura Kramer and Chris Cermak. Our research was Joanna Moser and our studio manager was Christy o'. Grady. After the headlines, there's more music on the way. The briefings live at midday here in London and the Globalist is back at the same time on Monday. Hope you can join me for that if you can. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thanks for listening. Have a great.
- [59:12]
Arti Bessegari
Weekend. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about running, rising with the dawn, each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our.