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The Globalist
Syria announces itself on the international stage: Ahmed Al-Sharaa at the White House after sanctions lifted
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Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 10th November 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Hello, this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, we're going to meet and I think he's doing a very good job. It's a tough neighborhood and he's a tough guy. Ahmed Al Shirra, the former Al Qaeda commander, is now being welcomed to the White House as the new leader of Syria. Syria. We'll look at how this turnaround happened and what it might mean for the balance of power in the Middle East. We'll be in the Philippines as the country takes stock of the typhoon which swept through overnight. We'll have a look through the front pages and find out more about a different take on the two state solution for Israel and Palestine. Then a new global travel report reveals that the total economic output of tourism is projected to exceed $16 trillion by 2035. That outstrips the world. We'll have a roundup of culture news.
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C
And then Diaries can be boring and even brilliant diaries can have passages which are of less interest than the main ones. If a passage would radiate boringness, I'd get rid of it.
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B
Helen Garner's diary is anything but boring and it's just won the Baillie Gifford Prize, the premier UK award for non fiction. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. The U.S. senate has advanced a bill to reopen the government after a 40 day shutdown, though the measure still needs House approval. And President Trump's sign off Typhoon Phuong Wang has struck the northern Philippines, killing at least two people and forcing more than a million evacuations. More on that story in a moment. And the BBC's director general and head of news have quit amid mounting bias allegations and a leaked report questioning elements of the broadcaster's recent news coverage. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, Washington will host a meeting today that few would have predicted. Ahmed Al Shararra, the former Al Qaeda commander once subject to a $10 million US bounty, will walk into the White House as Syria's president, the first Syrian leader to do so since 1946. UN sanctions on him were lifted last week, and the Trump administration is calling this part of a new pragmatic realignment aimed at stabilizing post ISIS Syria, rebuilding the state and reshaping regional politics. Well, I'm joined now by Damascus based journalist Heidi Pett. Heidi, thanks for coming on the show. How did Ahmed Al Shararra go from Al Qaeda commander to White House honored guest?
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D
I mean, it's been a very long road, hasn't it? And it's not one that any of us would have really expected, even this time last year. But Shara, you know, he, yes, he, he was leader of the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda. He then split off and formed a different group in the northwest of the country where the rebels were in control for a number of years throughout the civil war called Hayatur Asham. And during that time he was able to consolidate his power in Idlib. You know, he was either able to bring rival groups under his umbrella or, you know, or he forced them to submit militarily. And so he became the leader of rebel held Syria. And then in November and December last year, we saw this lightning offensive where him and his fighters and allied groups, you know, they, they pushed south, they took, they took Aleppo, then they took Kammer, they took homs, and within 10 days they were in Damascus. And so, you know, he became the kind of, by, by his military success. He became the de facto leader. And then in January of last year, he declared himself interim president of Syria. You know, he, he's put in an interim constitution, he's just begun forming a parliament. So he's been on this process of legitimising his control of the country over the last 12 months.
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B
And what pushed Washington to change course after years of sanctions and hostility?
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D
I mean, I think it's a very pragmatic move and it's one that we've seen from the international community more broadly. Right. You know, the Syrian civil war was devastating, not just for Syria, but for the region. It saw a huge wave of refugees, you know, many coming to Europe. And some people attribute that, actually the sort of backlash to that, to the rise of the far right in Europe. So the international community has an interest in stability in Syria. And most people have made a bet that Ahmed Al Shara is the best possible option for that right now. And so that's why we're seeing this. This push from the us, from the uk from the EU to do things like lift sanctions, to remove him and his ministers from the terrorist list and to hope that his rule can be a stabilizing force in Syria.
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B
And, of course, reconstruction comes next. Who's expected to pay for that?
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D
That is a very good question there. You know, there is a great deal of hope in Syria that a lot of that will come from investment. What's interesting, actually, is that they're not necessarily pursuing loans. You know, they're not. They're not courting institutions like the imf, the International Monetary Fund or the World bank in the ways that you might expect. What they're looking for is investment. And a lot of that coming from the Gulf. So coming from states like Saudi Arabia, the uae. There's a lot of Qatari money that has been promised to pour in. You know, the Qataris are actually supposed to be paying the salaries of some Syrian state workers while the economy here tries to get back on its feet.
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B
And how is Israel responding to this shift? I mean, as you say that the Gulf's investing, but Israel part of the region, given its regular strikes inside Syria and the talk of a security pact, is clearly not pleased.
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D
Yeah, Israel has not been a particularly stabilizing force in Syria in the last 12 months. And it's interesting, right, because early on, Shara was, you know, he took actually quite a conciliatory stance toward Israel, which, you know, during that time, during that kind of lightning offensive when Shara was consolidating control of Syria, Israel actually took that opportunity to expand into Syrian territory. And there have been, yeah, continued airstrikes, including in downtown Damascus. You know, they've destroyed the, the building of the Minist of Defense, which is not. It's not the actions of. Of a partner that seems to be seeking peace. And it's this. This real contradiction, right, where we've got the US Pushing for things like, you know, the signing of the Abraham records and the normalizing of relations. And yet Israel continues to. To bomb Syria and to destabilize the country and, and undermine Sharaz sort of authority and his rule as well, which causes a problem because it's a. It's a problem for his base. You know, interestingly, it's Kenitra, where the Israelis have expanded their kind of territorial control in the south of Syria, is one of the few places that it's still very difficult for international journalists to access. And I think that tells you something. It tells you that Sharratt and his Government. They don't want to see daily headlines about what's happening in southern Syria. You know, they don't want headlines about Israeli incursions and rights abuses of farmers and villagers down there because it increases domestic pressure on him to do something about it. And there's not much that he can actually do.
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B
The US Is planning to expand its troop footprint and also that there's a planned base near Damascus. Tell us a little bit more about that and what the US Is trying to achieve by this strengthened military presence.
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D
I mean, it's interesting, right? So that's based on some Reuters reporting that came out last week which seemed very, very solid. The government in Damascus has actually denied the reports about this base being planned and certainly that approval has given. So again, it's not clear whether they're just not ready to announce it or something's got a little bit out of control. But you know, the. Again, the US has had a military presence in parts of Syria for a long time. In the northeast, you know, that's under the control of the autonomous administration, the Kurds. There's been U. S Spaces there for many, many years. And we've got the U. S Base in a tant done by the Jordanian border as well. What, what is most likely here is that, you know, if this base goes ahead, the point of it would be increased military coop cooperation with Syria. You know, what we may see after the meeting today or sometime this week is Syria formally joining the global coalition against isis, which would really signal quite an ironic shift considering the government of Syria and many of its members were designated terrorists up until last week.
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B
And how much do you think this shift and the change in attitude towards Al Sharah is going to reconfigure the Middle East? How does this affect the region generally?
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D
I mean, I think we've seen a broader reconfiguration of the Middle east over the last year, right, with the, the war in Gaza and then Israel's strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon and the strikes in Iran. What we've seen is a real shifting of the balance of power. I think, you know, the Iranian axis and the groups that they've support have been massively suppressed over the last sort of 18 months. And, and this is part of that, right? Part of the reason that this offensive by Ahmed El Shirar and, and his groups was so effective is that the support that the Syrian government, Bashar Al Assad's government might have relied upon from groups like Hezbollah, from, you know, from Iran, from Russia, it just wasn't there because the Balance of power in the region has already shifted. And what, what may happen now is as Syria stabilizes, as it rejoins, you know, global organizations, as it rejoins the kind of global economic network as well, is, is potentially a stabilization. And Syria no longer being an engine of, you know, exporting drugs to the region, exporting arms, as it being an area that, you know, guns are crossing back and forth. That is still happening. You know, I spent some time in the Syrian desert a couple of weeks ago and people there tell me they see, they see drugs and arms being shipped across the southern Syrian desert. So still, but the scale of it is much less before and crucially, it's not government sponsored.
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B
Heidi, thank you. That's very interesting. Heidi Pett there, journalist in Damascus. This is the globalist. It's 1511 in Manila, 711 here in London. In recent days, a series of powerful typhoons have battered the Philippines, leaving widespread destruction across the country. Hundreds have been killed and more than a million displaced as the storms explode exposed deep flaws in the nation's flood control system and a widening corruption scandal. At the same time, the peso has fallen to a record low, reflecting growing concerns over governance and economic stability. Well, I'm joined now by Meng Palatino, a writer, activist and former legislator in the Philippines. Welcome to the show. Meng, these two typhoons which have struck the Philippines in quick succession, how have that, what does that mean for the current situation there? What's it like on the ground right now?
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E
Well, with regard to the recent typhoon, we have prepared for this, but still hundreds of thousands are still in evacuation centers. But what we learned from these two typhoons is that the harsh impact of extreme weather events combined with corruption, this is a deadly mix for our people because what we realize is the failure, and even the government is admitting the failure of flood control projects intended to protect the people. But when calamity struck, they gave away and led to severe casualties in many communities.
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B
Can you tell us more about these so called ghost projects?
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E
We have corruption tainted projects and this is a problem for many years. But what the government admitted a few months ago was the magnitude of corruption. And this is now related to ghost or non existent projects, funds released by the government, projects approved with rig bidding, but the funds have been diverted to the pockets of corrupt contractors in collusion with corrupt officials, especially elected legislators. This is why before the typhoons there have been protests across the country expressing outrage against this large scale and systematic corruption. And what is really infuriating for many people is that these ghost projects that have been Exposed are only related to one agency.
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B
So.
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E
But what about the other agencies? So the corruption crisis in the Philippines is still unfolding with more evidences of corruption, more testimonies about corruption in several agencies. So now we are seeing infrastructure corruption, but what about the other agencies? That's why the typhoons, especially the recent typhoons, have made us realize that corruption kills. Corruption is a deadly problem that should lead to accountability and corrupt officials should face accountability for this.
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B
And do you think that that will happen?
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E
There are ongoing investigations, but many people are increasingly becoming frustrated with a slow pace of investigation. For example, how can Congress become credible in investigating corruption when those implicated are their own members in Congress? There is a so called independent commission to investigate corruption, but many people suspect that it is meant to shield the President's office from being made accountable for the budget which he designed and approved. So many people are worried that there is a cover up of corruption crimes. So we are expecting, especially after the cleanup and rehabilitation of communities, more people will express concern and outrage. More people will demand accountability from these corruption tainted projects.
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B
So the peso has now fallen to a record low. What are the main factors driving this sharp decline?
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E
The peso decline is part of the growing concern about the impact of corruption on the economy. For example, how can local businesses and taxpayers have trust in the government if money and investment are being diverted to the private bank accounts of politicians? So this is an indicator of the distrust and also the concern of many people, especially the business community, about how the government is ensuring that money intended for investment and stimulate local economy will be really used to help people or promote growth. So the decline, the fall of the peso, is a worrying concern, especially for local exporters.
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B
And finally, how do you think that this triple crisis of typhoons, corruption and a collapsing currency could reshape the Philippines politics and economy going forward? Forward.
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E
This is a challenge for the presidency of President Bongbong Marcos Jr. He is pursuing the anti corruption campaign, but many people are growing tired and impatient. They have filed cases against those protesting against corruption. But no elected official or corrupt contractor has faced imprisonment for the ghost projects and corruption tainted projects. This could undermine his leadership, especially with several groups and political forces announcing that there will be a series of protests in the next few weeks. The 2028 election is far away, but many people are saying that the corruption crisis should lead to governance reforms. It is up to the President or the east government how he will address the corruption crisis in the Philippines.
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B
Meng, thank you very much indeed. That's Meng Palatino in Manila now, still.
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F
To come on the programme, consumers around the world really want to travel. They love travel, they prioritise travel. Three quarters of travellers say that they see travel as an important element of spending every year.
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B
That's Dave Guja, who's managing director for Europe, the Middle east and Africa at Tourism Economics, discussing the results of the global travel reporter that just ended world travel market in London. This is the globalist.
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A
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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B
Let's continue now with today's newspapers. And joining me is Hannah Lucinda Smith, Monocle's Istanbul correspondent. Good morning to you, Hannah.
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G
Good morning.
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B
So we're going to begin with the Turkish papers because Baku is making the headlines there. Why the focus on Azerbaijan?
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G
Yeah, absolutely. So particularly in the sort of more pro government, pro Erdogan papers here this morning, there's coverage of the celebrations of Azerbaijan's Victory day. That's on November 8th. So that was held on Saturday. And that's to commemorate one of two offensives that Azerbaijan undertook in the territory of Nagorno Karabakh. That's a disputed territory, or was a disputed territory that was controlled since the early 1990s by an Armenian administration. It was still recognized internationally as the territory of Azerbaijan. And in two offensives, one of them in 2020, the other in 2023, Azerbaijan won back that territory. And since then, November 8th has been seen as Victory Day in Azerbaijan. But also as reported in the Turkish papers, the headlines are saying it's also a moment of pride for the whole Turkic world and particularly for Turkey. Turkey was Azerbaijan's main backer in that offensive. Erdogan takes part in those celebrations every year. And again we see this this year as well.
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B
And the conflict finally ended when that peace treaty was signed, I believe just one of the, what is it, seven or eight wars that Trump ended.
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G
Yeah, absolutely. Another, another deal for Trump and a deal that of the kind that he likes very much, involving money and construction deals. So this conflict in Nagorno Karabakh came to an end officially in August when a peace deal was signed under the auspices of Trump. This creates a kind of tension between this kind of jingoism that we see, you know, at the weekend, these Big celebrations obviously within Azerbaijan. This victory is a huge propaganda victory for President Aliyev. It's something that he's really used to kind of shore up his own domestic support, but on an international stage. Yeah, there has been this peace deal. It's ended this decades long conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia and also ended this kind of ongoing tensions between Turkey and Armenia as well. You know, Turkey, Azerbaijan's strongest backer, closed its borders with armenia in the 1990s. They'd stay close. There'd been no trade between the two flights had only recently been started between Istanbul and Yerevan. But with this deal overseen by Trump, for Trump, the advantage is it hands the US a century long investment deal in that area. They're going to get the chance, a preferential chance to build roads, build other kind of you development in that region, but also kind of opens up the southern Caucasus to Turkey as well.
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B
Let's have a look at what's been happening in Istanbul. A horrible explosion killing six women workers. Tell us more.
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G
Yeah, so this was on Saturday in a town called Kojeli, very, very close to Istanbul. It's kind of the industrial belt of towns around Istanbul, Many, many factories there. And one of these, a perfume factory in the town of Kogeli, exploded on early on Saturday morning. Six people were killed, all of them women, two of them under 18, all of them were workers in that factory. And now this is the story that's leading the anti government opposition papers. There are questions here being asked about the, the safety procedures in this factory, the causes of the explosion. There's some reporting that it might have been to do with a leak of chemicals or chemicals that were being stored perhaps illegally in this factory. So a lot of questions this morning coming from the unions about factory safety and about workers rights here in Turkey.
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B
I just wanted to pick up on something you said about pro and anti government newspapers. So we know there's been a huge clampdown on the opposition, but those papers are allowed to operate.
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G
Yeah, there's still a very, very few anti government or anti Erdogan newspapers left. One of them is called Birgan, another one called Everensel. And they are managing to kind of hold back. They, they or hold out, sorry. Against the pressure that's coming on almost all of the media from the government and particularly when you look at the television channels, there's one or two left that are opposition. They tend to focus on these kind of stories, on a lot of, you know, workers rights, on a lot of environmental stories. Because the thing is, when you start focusing very Heavily on political stories. That's when you start really getting pressure applied. So although there are a few of these newspapers left, these are the kind of stories that they do tend to focus on.
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B
Well, finally, let's have a look at one of those opposition leaders. That's Salahaten Dimitash, who is the Kurdish leader. Tell us, tell us why he's in the papers again.
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G
Yeah, so Salahaten Demirta was the leader of the hdp, as it was known at the time, which was the biggest Kurdish rooted party in Turkey. He became a really major figure in Turkish politics because he managed to take that party and from beyond its kind of ethnic base and turn it into a party that was attracting votes from Turks as well. In the west of the country, more opposition minded leftist Turks, particularly amongst the younger generations, managed to bring that party into the parliament for the first time. And that's when his troubles began. I interviewed Demi Tash back in the spring of 2016 when the peace process between the Turkish state and Kurdish militants, the pkk, was breaking down and the hdp, his party, was absolutely caught in the middle of that. They were being pulled in one direction by the more kind of radical parts of their base, wanted them to move closer to a PKK position. And on the other hand by the government putting pressure, trying to lump Kurdish politics in with Turkish militant, with Kurdish militancy and what happened in the end. And he was very clear when I interviewed him, I think it was April 2016, he was very clear. He said, you know, the arrest is coming from me. And that's what happened a few months later. He's been in prison since then. He's now been in prison for nine years, convicted of a string of terror charges. But in the past few months we've seen the Turkish government moving more towards a position where they look like they're ready to start including Kurdish parties within Turkish politics again. The peace process has been restarted. We've seen the release of Abdullah Ojalan, the leader of the PKK. He's been in prison since 1999. And now we're seeing signs coming from both Erdogan and also from Turkey's main ultra nationalist politician that Salahatin Demetesh as well could be on the verge of being released.
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B
Can you tell me what's influenced Erdogan's decision on this? Why this new openness, if you like?
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G
That's a really interesting one. Because alongside the kind of new opening towards Kurdish politics has come a crackdown on another part of the opposition, on the mainstream opposition the chp, which is the second biggest party in Turkey. It's the party of Ataturk, the nation's founder. It's a party which is very much about secular values, about social democratic values. And it's also the party of Ekrem Imamolu, the the mayor of Istanbul, who was rising to become a really charismatic popular figure who looked like he might be able to take on Erdogan in the next presidential elections. He was arrested in March. He was put in prison. He remains in prison. There are new cases, new investigations being opened against other CHP operations, CHP politicians, including Oscar Ozel, the leader of that party. It looks like he might be detained. So it's almost as if the sort of focus of Erdogan's crackdown has shifted from Kurdish politics to the main opposition party. And that's really a kind of demographic calculation. Erdogan is calculating that when it comes to the next election, it's worth getting back the support of the country's Kurds, and in the meantime, cracking down on the other opposition. That's a calculation that he's making that he thinks is going to win him another term in office here.
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B
Hannah, Lucinda Smith, thank you very much indeed. Hannah was speaking to us from Istanbul. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. The U.S. senate has inched forward on legislation to reopen the government after a 40 day shutdown that's disrupted federal services, food aid and air travel. Lawmakers advanced a House pass bill that would keep agencies funded until 30th of January and bundle three full year spending bills, though it still needs House approval. And President Trump's signature Typhoon Phuong Wong tore through the northern Philippines overnight, killing at least two people and severing access to several towns. More than a million people were evacuated before the storm made landfall as a super typhoon hammering Luzon with violent winds, heavy rain and storm surges. And the BBC's director general and its head of news have resigned following accusations of political bias and a leaked report alleging editorial failings on coverage ranging from Gaza to transgender issues. Their departure follows criticism over an edited Trump speech and renewed scrutiny of the broadcaster's internal handling of impartiality and recent scandals. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It is 9, 928 in Jerusalem, 828 in Zurich. Gaza's future is being argued over by everyone. The Gulf with a big reconstruction plan, Israel with the security blueprint, Palestinian groups with their own visions. And into that mix comes A different idea, A land for all. A joint Israeli Palestinian political initiative which proposes two states, shared homeland, shared Jerusalem, shared security and eventually free movement. It challenges the old model of separation and asks both peoples to imagine something more workable. Well, I'm joined now by Mai Pandek, an Israeli lawyer and feminist activist, and Dr. Rula Hardal, a Palestinian citizen of Israel and lecture in political science. Welcome to you both. Many thanks for joining the show. Mai, what's your vision?
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H
Well, first of all, thank you so much for having us today. I think that this is exactly the moment that we should all be facing the unknown and start articulating a clear vision for the future of the Israeli Palestinian people of the Middle east. And of course, how to solve the Israeli Palestinian conflict in a way that would be sustainable, just and acceptable by the two people. So what we are offering is what we call two states. One homeland, two states, two sovereign independence, independent states, Israel and Palestine with a clear border, 67 border. And on top of that, another added value, another added model of shared institutions to take care of the things that have to be taken care of, shared and jointly, without taking away from the sovereignty of the two states and the independent of the two states. So I would refer to, let's say France, Germany and the EU model as one inspiration of such an example that can lead us both to the independence and separation that we need, to the security and safety that we need. But understanding that there are multiple challenges, like several issues of security, like economy, like water, like Jerusalem, like even issues of infrastructure and, and climate that demand us to work in tight cooperation. And then the realization that the interdependency at this point between Israelis and Palestinians demand us a political vision that would answer that need.
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B
Rula, how does this differ from the classic two state solution?
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I
Well, it's different in several ways. The first one is actually the whole approach to the, to our two states is different by moving from segregation and separation as immoral, supremist, unrealistic, into a new approach and paradigm how to go to the two states which is sharing, we are sharing the same, the same land, the same resources, the same streets, sometimes the same economy and so on. The second one, the second difference between us and the classic two state solution that we offer by the confederative model and the shared institutions and the freedom of movement, as you said, gradually, hopefully, new approaches and new solutions to what we call the deadlocks of the Class 2 state solution. And these are Jerusalem, the right of return of the Palestinian refugees and the settlers and the settlements.
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B
So Mai, how would you deal with Jerusalem?
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H
So I think that it's getting more and more clear for anyone who has lived, reside or has visited Jerusalem in the past few good few years that Jerusalem is not, not meant to be divided. It is impossible to its own internal logic, whether it's its internal soul, but whether it's also the way that we perceive Jerusalem. And for very practical reasons today, we're not going to build a big wall in the middle of Jerusalem. Jerusalem is a place that tells the story that we're trying to tell on a more political level, which is that Israelis, most Jews, see all of this homeland, from the river to the sea, including Judea and Samaria, as their homeland. Jews have an attachment to the entirety of the land, but so do Palestinians. For Palestinians, whatever you would say, from the river to the sea will always be Palestine, including Jerusalem and including Yaffa and Akko and Haifa and Lod and cities that will remain in our plan under the jurisdiction of Israel. But the idea that the fact that we both share the attachment to this homeland, such a strong emotional connection is a place that divides us, is where we defer from the classic two states. So this is the place where we say, okay, some things we will have to share in order to make it work. Jerusalem is a great example for that, for both practical reasons, but also for emotional ones.
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B
And ruler. What are the challenges that you face then from politicians and from the two divided populations?
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I
Well, the first maybe challenge is the lack of leadership on both sides that are willing to go for a solution of the conflict. And without doing any symmetry between the Palestinian and the Israeli side. I would say from analyzing and understanding the whole development of the Israeli political system and ideologies of the components of the current coalition at least. But it's not only the current coalition. It's been actually the ideology of the liquidity Likud Party who is ruling the government in Israel since at least 2009, with some small exceptions in between, especially before three years. The ideology of the Likud Party and its allies is actually to do everything in order to prevent the establishment, establishment and the recognition of sovereign Palestinian state. It's not a hidden agenda, you know, it's something that we all know and they emphasize it every day, including the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu. The second obstacle here, I would like to refer to the recent political developments. You know, we are now about a month since the announcement of the President Trump plan. Even in this plan, that is very important, historic stop the atrocities and the genocidal war in Gaza, but still they are not speaking even in this plan. And on the international level that is very. That the whole actors are actually the regional and the global are very involved in what's happening in Israel. But again, there is no serious conversation about a Palestinian state and about a permanent solution of the conflict. I am afraid that, you know, we are entering, or we might enter now, following this fragile ceasefire in Gaza, to enter a new old status quo where we are not speaking about a Palestinian state and ending the occupation and the two states, but instead of that, another status quo like the old one.
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B
And so Maya, how then do you go about getting buy in from all the other interested parties from the Gulf states to the us?
- [36:58]
H
So I would first say that we are in a historic moment October 7th. There are multiple reasons and many things to talk about October 7 and the atrocities that happened that day. But one thing should be clear to us. October 7th happened because Israeli government refused to solve the Israeli Palestinian conflict. And the international community accepted that, accepted the fact that this conflict doesn't have to be solved right now. And we know that Netanyahu has supported Hamas and has disempowered the Palestinian Authority in order to prevent a possibility of establishing a Palestinian state and ending this conflict. So the commitment right now needs to be not only actually realizing this ceasefire, which of course has been breached multiple times at this point, it has to be putting a clear, rational, acceptable, realistic vision on how to solve the Israeli Palestinian conflict once and for all. If we do not commit to such a vision, we are going to see ourselves in a much worse situation than October 7th. And there is a historic moment now that has to be seized. I will say that from our experience in the past few months, months, there is a huge growing interest in Israel, in Palestine, in the Gulf States, in the Middle east and in the international community on understanding that we need a new, relevant, pragmatic approach to the two states that will allow us to actually solve it and not go back to, as Ola said, the classic deadlock that we haven't dealt with for many, many years. And so for us, what we are trying to do now, what we are doing now is a growing movement, bottom up of Israelis and Palestinians in the homeland, understanding, committing themselves to end the conflict, taking agency on our own future and narrative as our leadership has not done, and bringing this solution to the table and saying, look, this can actually work. And what we're also seeing is that incredibly important interlocutors from the entire world and international community are buying into this idea that we have been able to solve some things that have been seemed as intractable so far. And so what we ask for people is to read our vision on the website and to start talking about it and understanding that this conflict will end as all conflicts do, and that it can end. And we offer a roadmap, or roadmap is not a good word to use these days. We offer a vision and a solution that has been created by experts and multiple people from different communities in Israel and in Palestine, throughout the homeland for 15 years. And we have a solution. We have the answers. And now we have to move forward and have a clear vision that learns from the mistakes of previous negotiations that have failed and that learns from successes of other conflicts that have been solved in a sustainable way. And that's exactly what we're doing, building from the bottom up and from the top down.
- [40:03]
B
My pandak and Dr. Rula hardahl from A Land for all, thank you both very much. You're with Monocle Radio. The world travel market in London has come to a close. Marking the moment with the release of the Global Travel Report. Looking ahead to 2035, the main finding is that the global travel industry is on course to expand faster than the world economy, with total economic output projected to exceed $16 trillion. Behind the report is Dave Guja, managing director for Europe, the Middle east and Africa at Tourism Economics. After delivering the highlights to a packed crowd at the Excel Centre, he joined Monocle's Tom west web with more detail on the findings.
- [40:55]
F
Consumers around the world really want to travel. They love travel, they prioritise travel. Three quarters of travellers say that they see travel as an important element of spending every year. They really prioritize that travel and it's sort of moving beyond a discretionary spend item and something that they really value and see it as an essential. And that's true across wide range of source markets, both developing and emerging markets. And yeah, a lot of opportunities for different destinations to tap into. Let's take a closer look at one of these travelers and we're going to the American travelers. The North American market. Why are they so important? How can they have so much spending power? It is still one of the largest markets in the world, USA and China, the two largest travel markets in the world. When you're looking at that domestic travel and the outbound as a whole, it is a scale thing. Essentially. They are a very large country, but it is also a wealthy country. There is a lot of money that is available to spend, a lot of households who are earning enough to be able to Spend. And we do see that as households get wealthier as they are able to spend, they really do value those experiences that come from travel. So, yeah, with such a large market, it cannot be ignored. It has to be one of the the most important markets out there. And yeah, they do really value those, those experiences. Obviously, a lot of that happens domestically within North America, within the U.S. but they do want those new travel experiences. They want to see and experience those new cultures on the stage yesterday. So in the panel, I was joined by the president of Italian Tourism Organization and yeah, she was sort of Talking about how USA is their 1 of their largest source markets and all of those things they really value in their experiences in Italy. They want to have those new experiences, the gastronomy, the sites, the culture. They really want to experience everything that Italy has to offer that is different from in the US how does Trump's trade policy disrupt that order of travel slightly? There's two levels where it is. So one is, yeah, at the pure economics level. So tariffs, a tax that does raise costs. So that adds to prices, adds to inflationary pressure. So that hurts people's incomes, hurts their spending power. It also with that inflationary pressure, it means that we're not seeing interest rates coming down as we had hoped or to the extent that we had hoped that they would be coming down. So that is affecting people's future spending decisions and some of their travel decisions. So that's of it at the overall level. But it is also does affect things at a particular destination level where it does affect sentiment. And we have seen across numerous examples where countries aren't seen to be as welcoming, they're not seen to be as open, that people do tend to stay away. And so that is something that's clearly happened here where we're looking at the tariffs being imposed on Canada and China being the real standouts. We're also seeing this in across Europe. Europe that affects our perceptions of openness. So if we look at the share of travelers from those source markets where they're going, they are looking at alternatives rather than the U.S. yes, a large number are still traveling to the U.S. and there's still a lot to offer in the U.S. but increasingly they're looking for other destinations as alternatives and talking about excitement and success stories. The Middle east have outpaced many regions around the world. How have they been able to do that? And can they sustain that energy? Yes, is a simple answer. They can sustain that. We are seeing that that's a key part of our forecast, that we're Looking at global Travel growth averaging 6% over the next five years, travel to the Middle east averaging 9%. It is the standout region for growth. Reasons for that is that it is continuing to develop. It has got that investment going in there. It's adding new attractions, adding new connectivity, bringing their destination to the world and developing those new destinations. We've also seen Saudi Arabia where we've seen notable growth. They have been closed for a long time. They are opening up. They're showcasing all the different destinations that they have to offer existing as well as adding those new destinations with all of the great development that we're seeing and we're seeing sort of showcased sort of on the floor here in some of the pavilions at wtm. Also key to that is that it is sort of supported by policy and that policy is very important and clear. Example of this is then the visa policy, simple example. It was very hard to get a visa. Now visa applications are much simplified. It is much easier to get your travel visas to get into Saudi. But then we are also looking at then the GCC unified visa coming, which will allow that easier travel across the six GCC countries, opening up those borders. And it's something we've seen in countless examples, opening over history. That where you see that sort of more openness, where you see that visa policy openness, that really is a boost to travel in the same way that was seen the negative from the trade. And that positive boost to openness does sort of raise travel. And we see a sort of a 15 to 20% uplift on average when you see countries pursue these sorts of more facilitative policies.
- [46:03]
B
And that was Dave Gujar speaking with Monocle's Tom Webb. This is the globalist on Monocle Radio. And we go from travel to culture. I'm joined now by Amma Rose, Rose Abrams, who's an arts journalist. Ammarose everybody is talking about Paris photo, which opens this week. Why so much buzz around it? Is it different this year?
- [46:19]
J
I feel like the buzz around Paris photo has been building up for a couple of years. But I think it's, you know, it's there for two reasons. Partly because it's a Paris moment. Everyone's talking about Paris at the moment. But I also think there's a special relationship between Paris and photography, which is becoming more and more exciting to people as people turn to photography again. I think the medium is exciting people at the.
- [46:44]
B
And how much of that is to do with technology, do you think? New forms of being able to take photographs and the Ease. I mean, everybody's got a camera in their pocket all of the time.
- [46:53]
J
Exactly. And I think rather that. I think people thought that might limit people's interest in professional photography, but I think it's highlighted it because I think while people thought that everybody having a camera in their pocket would make everybody a photographer, I think it's made people realize how talented professional photographers are and kind of be fascinated by the skills and the kind of stories you can tell visually. And visual culture is huge at the moment, you know, via Instagram and all of these things. And I think it means people are fascinated by the power of these images.
- [47:28]
B
And any particular highlights we should look out for at Paris Photo?
- [47:31]
J
Well, at the fair, you can see unseen work by Sally Mann, which I think is going to really excite a lot of people. There's work from Robert Frank, Irving Penn, Kiki Smith, Diane Arbor, all the kind of stars. And then there's also the chance at Paris photo, which I would recommend just to kind of have a look at the emerging galleries, have a look at the unknown names and see what's happening in contemporary photography. It's a great opportunity to see stuff not on a screen, but printed. You know, how the photographer would ideally have you see it. And it's a chance to discover. One thing I would say is there are some great shows around the city. There is a Tyler Mitchell show on an mep. It's a hot photographer of the moment. Everybody is raving about this show. There's a. If you love your fashion photography, there's Inez and the nude at the product room, which is kind of the iconic kind of images of everyone from Lady Gaga, Kim Kardashian, these star makers, I think they're great. That's going to be a great show. And Joel Merowitz has also got a show at Ross.
- [48:38]
B
Let's stay in Paris. I love, love, love this story.
- [48:41]
J
The.
- [48:42]
B
The Louvre. Of course, we know the. The big heist there. All the rest of it. The security system's been updated after it was revealed that the password for the security camera software was Louvre.
- [48:55]
J
I'm really feeling for them at the moment because every week it's another thing.
- [48:59]
B
That they have just.
- [49:00]
J
But it's. Yeah, stunningly. It was Louvre. It's like the equivalent of calling it password. It's just maybe one up from that. And they're. Yeah. So they're upgrading everything after the heist, and it's like. And they aren't appointing a security coordinator.
- [49:19]
B
They didn't have one.
- [49:20]
J
I know they didn't have one. And, and they were. And it reports directly to the museum president. Again, you're kind of surprised that it wasn't there before. And a 20% increase in their training budget for staff. In terms of security, I don't know what it was, what that's being increased from. And there's going to be an increased police presence. But again, it's just kind of beggar's belief.
- [49:49]
B
Absolutely. It really does. Let's go to the US now. Of course, the government shutdown has meant that many museums are closed, but there's one that's reopening in Harlem.
- [49:59]
J
Yes. The Studio Museum, kind of headed up by the beloved Thelma golden, thinker and curator, is opening again after eight years without a permanent home. And they've just, it's, it's the kind of, it's, I would say one of the major institutions in the US that focuses on African American art. And golden is just this kind of lordy thinker. And so now they have this kind of a building that matches the stature of the organization, this kind of 300 million pound building that sits in Harlem and kind of creates again a hub in Harlem which has been missing around the increased conversation. You know, everything's kind of changed in terms of how people have looked at African American art. Really. It's gone from people having to, to fight for a voice to really, it's kind of been taken into the canon in a way that it wasn't before. And as you say, what a moment for this to happen.
- [51:04]
B
Absolutely.
- [51:04]
J
At a time when so many museums are closed, so many museum and you know, employees don't know what's going to happen with their jobs and people don't have access to the public art that is available in the us and so this is a boost, I think, for them.
- [51:21]
B
Absolutely. So that's called the Studio Museum.
- [51:25]
C
Yeah.
- [51:25]
J
In Harlem. Yes.
- [51:26]
B
Excellent, Ammarose, thank you very much indeed. That's Ammarose Abrams there. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio.
- [51:37]
A
Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS Banking is our craft.
- [52:13]
B
Last week, the Baillie Gifford Prize, the UK's most prestigious award for non fiction recognising outstanding writing and intellectual ambition from authors around the world, was awarded to Helen Garner for how to End a story diaries 1995-98 after a unanimous decision by the judges, it's the first time a diary has taken the award. Ghana's three volume project Characters starts the making of a writer and the unraveling of a marriage with a gaze that's forensic, unsentimental and often wickedly funny. Speaking to her following the announcement, I asked for her reaction to winning the prize.
- [52:49]
C
I was, I was completely shell shocked. Over the years I've developed a sort of a mode to deal with the strange psychological contortions that are provoked in people by prize, prizes and being shortlisted for things. And my way of dealing with it is just repression. I just don't think about it, I don't. And if I'm shortlisted I have a few days of dismay and terror and then I just sort of blot it all out and go about my business. So I didn't think I had a chance.
- [53:20]
B
The diary form isn't polished, it isn't retrospective, it's the moment caught in its rawness. It lets you do things that the novel doesn't.
- [53:29]
C
Yes, it's true. I find it highly congenial. I don't imagine that I'll write another novel. In fact, all my novels are very close to non fiction and I'm prepared to admit that now because early on when people said, oh, but she's just published a chunk of her diary, I would get furious and I would get very defensive. But I don't feel like that anymore, I think, yes, well that's where I, that's how I learned to write and that's how I learned to write well, was by writing in a diary. And so I've got quite good at seizing things while they're happening or when they've just happened. And it's a skill that I've developed and it's a skill that you have to develop too in courts. If you're going to write anything really interesting, you can't work off a transcript. You've got to see people's faces and their postures and hear their voices.
- [54:23]
B
I mean there was a bit of controversy around that, people saying that they felt that their lives had been used in pursuit of your writing. What do you say about that?
- [54:32]
C
No, I've never actually got into trouble about it. I mean, some people have expressed irritation, but I think it was more like the critics were saying, oh, this is only, you know, she's just writing a diary. It's not real writing. But it is true that with writing a diary, when I was going to Publish this one. Now, how to end a story. I could see that there was. Well, naturally, by its very nature, it talks about all the people that I'm close to and the people that I love and friends and my family members. And so I got in touch with as many people as I thought might be offended or hurt or not like to be revealed.
- [55:16]
J
And.
- [55:17]
C
And I said, look, I'm not actually asking your permission, but you're mentioned in this book and you're depicted and would you like me to show you the passages where you appear? And I was. I mean, obviously if anybody had vociferously objected, I would have negotiated or else said, okay, I'll cut it. But nobody did. I mean, people actually said, got back in touch with me and said, I don't want to see it. No, it's all right, go ahead, I trust you. That was a very liberating thing to happen.
- [55:51]
B
How did your daughter react?
- [55:53]
C
Well, she's always appeared in my work. I suppose she's never complained about it. I mean, my daughter and I are close. I've lived next door to her for the last 25 years while I've been a hands on grandmother. And we're close, but in an interesting way. We're not sort of all huggy and sort of softly together where I've always felt that we're sort of a team. I think that happens sometimes when you've got a single mother and a young child. There's a team like factor to it. And I would be very careful writing about her. You know, there were things that I would not say about her, not write about her, because it's none of my business. I mean, there is a limit. There's a line that, you know, you can cross. But she's never complained. Or sometimes I've said, hey, listen, can I say this about you? And she'll just go, oh, Helen. Oh, all right. You know what I mean? She takes it like that.
- [56:50]
B
Yeah. I mean, were there lines that you wrote, you thought, I might regret this, but I'm writing it anyway. Or did you go back and take stuff out? I mean, was the mess of it the point that, or were you kind of editing it into something neater?
- [57:04]
C
Well, it was all naturally, it had all sorts of boring passages in it because I wasn't always sort of on form. Sometimes I'd write poorly or badly. It was terribly important to me not to be a bore. I know that diaries can be boring and even brilliant diaries can have passages which are of less interest than the main ones. But if a passage would radiate boringness. I'd get rid of it or I'd chop it right back. But the sort of editing I did was pretty. There wasn't nearly as much of it as I expected that I didn't quite realise until I went back and started working on it for publication how hard I had worked while I was actually writing it. I mean, I'd come upon passages that I had forgotten writing and I think, gee, that's actually quite good. That's good. And that was a really wonderful thing. And when I say good, I mean well written and interesting. Not necessarily that they made me look good because I was working hard at not hiding behind. I wanted to be frank about myself as well. And I think that's a reasonable deal with other people that you write about. If you're tough on yourself as well, it's gives you more prerogative to speak frankly about other people.
- [58:29]
B
That's Helen Garner, who is the Baillie Gifford Prize winner for How To End A Story, which is published by Weidenfeld and Nicholson. She is in fact the second Australian in a row to win that prize. Last year it was won by Richard Flanagan for the brilliant book question 7. Do download the latest edition of Meet the Writers to hear a full version of that interview. Also with Flanagan and recent episodes. Authors include the French writer Olivia Norek, who's written wonderfully about Finland and Norway, and Richard Lloyd Parry, who of course is a great friend of Monocle and his novel is called in the Green Heart. That's all for today's programme. Thanks to our producers, Carlotta Rebelo, Chris Chermak and Hassan Anderson, our researcher Joanna Moser and our studio manager, Mariella Bevan. After the headlines, there's more music on the way and the briefing is live at midday. In London, the Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thanks for listening.
- [59:37]
A
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