← The Globalist
The Globalist
Ten days of war: Iran appoints new supreme leader as Israeli and US strikes continue
01:01:28
Loading summary
Transcript112 lines
- [00:04]
UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
- [00:38]
Georgina Godwin
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 9th March 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
- [01:08]
Philip Stone
Hello,
- [01:09]
Georgina Godwin
this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, I guess the worst case would be we do this
- [01:18]
Mark Carney
and then somebody takes over who's as
- [01:20]
Patrick Wall
bad as the previous.
- [01:22]
Mark Carney
We don't want that to happen.
- [01:23]
Georgina Godwin
Well, you don't always get what you want, do you? Donald Trump Iran names a new supreme leader as Israel says it's begun a new phase of the war with Tehran. We'll be in Abu Dhabi with the latest and get analysis from London. Next, we ask a legal expert if an interstate war can be prevented. We'll have a review of the day's
- [01:42]
Mark Carney
papers and then you can't be truly sovereign, you can't be truly independent just by yourself. But if you pair up with somebody who's going to use that relationship against you, you're not truly sovereign.
- [01:56]
Georgina Godwin
That's Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, in an exclusive interview with our Tyler Brulee. We'll then head to our Zurich studios to discuss whether Europe is threatened by China's economy. And we'll have a roundup of stories coming out of Greece. And finally, as the world's publishing industry descends on us for London Book Fair, Nelson IQ book data have crunched the numbers and can reveal what we're all reading. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Israel carried out a drone strike in central Beirut targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders, marking the first strike inside the Lebanese capital since hostilities with Hezbollah resumed last week. We'll have more on that in a moment. An overnight explosion damaged the entrance of the US Embassy in Oslo, with Norwegian police saying the blast may have been an of terrorism, though investigations are still underway. And Swiss voters have rejected a proposal to sharply cut the national broadcaster's license fee, while also backing a constitutional guarantee that cash will remain available in the country. Do stay tuned to Monaco Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now Iran has appointed a new supreme leader. The news comes as Israel says its war with Iran has entered a new phase as strikes and counterstrikes continue across the region. Donald Trump has reiterated that there will be no negotiations with Tehran unless Iran agrees to unconditional surrender, while Egypt, Turkey and Oman are reportedly trying to reopen diplomatic channels. Well, I'm joined now in the studio by Tira Shubert, who's a journalist and co author of the book Lifting the Life in Revolutionary Iran, and Nada Ahtah in Abu Dhabi, who's a senior foreign reporter at the National. Welcome to you both. Tira, Khamenei's son has been chosen as the next supreme leader. Can you tell us more about him and what his appointment means for the direction that the country will now take?
- [04:04]
Tira Shubert
Yes. Well, Khamenei's son has never held any office either within the government or within the clerical establishment. He's 56 years old. He's the second oldest son of Khamenei, who was killed last week by the Americans and Israelis. And he basically has never the line coming out of Tehran is that he may not be qualified in terms of what the assembly of Experts are normally looking for, the group of 88 clerics who choose the next leaders, the supreme leaders. But he's very, very close to the Revolutionary Guards, the irgc, and he's also very close to the Basij. The Basij are also the internal. So he has some very strong allies. And at the moment, Revolutionary Guards may be the most powerful single factor in Iran.
- [05:05]
Georgina Godwin
Nada, what's the regional reaction from Gulf nations to Khamenei's appointment likely to be?
- [05:12]
Nada Al Taher
I mean, specifically, they're not concerned right now with the appointments and what's going on internally with regards to the politics in Iran, as much as they're concerned with Iran's kind of response to the frankly unprovoked and unilateral Israeli and US Attack on Iran. That's then Iran decided to retaliate towards the Gulf after currently the concerns are with incoming ballistic missiles across the Gulf states, including Oman, which was a mediator, if we recall, in what was supposed to be a nuclear deal. Just this morning in Abu Dhabi, we received two ballistic missile alerts on our phones and it was quite loud. I heard the interceptions even. And this obviously comes after Iranian President Possess Kian apologized and said that he would only strike wherever the strikes are coming from. And this was that brief moment where we thought, okay, Iran has come to its census and this is all over.
- [06:23]
Georgina Godwin
Tira, of course, this is having a huge impact economically. Oil prices have now risen above $100 per barrel. What's Qatar said about the global economic impact?
- [06:34]
Tira Shubert
Qatar is. Qatar is obviously alarmed and they have actually issued an alert that they've arrested more than 300 people for putting out misinformation. So this may be misinformation. They say all information has to come from official sources. So they are worried about it. They are one of the single largest gas exporter in the region. But yes, crude is up over $110. In fact, Brent crude is up to over 114 and the markets have opened Asia Pacific and they are down substantially in the Nikkei. In Japan more than 7%. And we have the foots in London opening in less than an hour.
- [07:26]
Georgina Godwin
Nada. Israel's been also striking Lebanon. What do we think Israel means about the war entering a new phase?
- [07:36]
Nada Al Taher
Well, you know, we've already seen Israel's actions in Gaza. There was not a single rule that was abided by in Gaza. We have seen complete and total annihilation and disregard of international law there. And we know what Israel is capable of. And right now we've seen an attack on central Beirut that Israel claimed was targeting IRGC commanders, again without providing proof. And there's more than a million people now displaced in Lebanon just in the last week and more than 600 people killed. It's complete and utter chaos and anarchy. And people who the national Hasan spoken to in Lebanon have said that we don't know at what point we're going to die because Israel is not even giving warnings, not Even those symbolic 10, 15 minute warnings that it sometimes used to give to people in order to flee their homes with whatever belongings and whatever family members they could. So right now there is not even that. And so people in Lebanon don't know who's next. What's next? Where is next? Used to it used to be that Israel's strikes would be confined to southern Lebanon, but that's not even there anymore. And so it's a really terrifying time to be in Lebanon at this point. And yeah, with whatever Israel is choosing
- [08:59]
Georgina Godwin
to do there, Tirith, I wonder how long this can continue. What are you hearing about Iran's missile and drones stockpile and the regime's ability to fight on?
- [09:08]
Tira Shubert
Well, there's two schools of thought. One that they're rapidly running out of missiles and also drones. But there's another school of thought that thinks they have tens of thousands more drones, these little shahid drones that have been used in various countries now, but they definitely are running their stocks down. And they are, as we've just heard, the amount of weaponry that they're firing into their Gulf neighbors is substantial. So they will run out. And this is what the new supreme leader is going to have to face. He's going to have to run an actual war and he's also going to have to think about the economy because this has tremendous long term impacts. I mean, even with the damage in Iran now, it would take more than a decade just to repair some of the infrastructure, the infrastructure that has been hit. And they've lived with sanctions for many years. So the economy is a problem. And whether or not they continue to produce munitions, it's going to be at a very reduced rate after these run out.
- [10:19]
Georgina Godwin
Nada. Are there many diplomatic efforts underway to end the war?
- [10:24]
Nada Al Taher
Yes. I mean, as much as we're seeing a sort of restraint in the military response from the Gulf, we know that and obviously they have the and maintain the right to defend themselves, whatever that may look like. There is also a very strong diplomatic effort underway in order to end all of this diplomatically. It is seen as that the diplomatic approach is the more sensible, the more correct, the more right one. And it shows a lot of maturity in the way that there's a long term kind of vision and goal for this situation so that it doesn't just end today with the end of the barrage of ballistic missiles coming down on us, but also that there's a long term solution being looked at and being found and being sought. And one of them is obviously the end of Iran's ballistic missiles program, which Iran used to frame as a defensive mechanism, but now we've seen it in real time being used for offensive reasons. And so that is something that is definitely going to be looked at very closely and very with a lot of interest from the Gulf as well.
- [11:49]
Georgina Godwin
And finally, Tira, how has Tehran reacted to Trump's demand for unconditional surrender?
- [11:55]
Tira Shubert
Well, the leadership, the Iranian leadership has not taken it seriously because they did reach out at an earlier stage asking, they did put feelers out a couple of days ago. But unconditional surrender? No. But it's interesting. The one thing with big factor we don't know is how the Iranian people are reacting because bombing tends to unite people. And the last time Iran was attacked in 1981 by Saddam Hussein in the Iran Iraq war, they didn't like the regime which was only two years old then, but they all united against Iraq. Is this going to happen? To what extent will this happen in
- [12:35]
Georgina Godwin
Iran, Tira thank you very much indeed. That's Tira Shubhat, who's a journalist and co author of the book Lifting the Life in Revolutionary Iran. And Nada Al Taher in Abu Dhabi, who's a senior foreign reporter at the National. This is the Globalist. Right, well it is 7:12 here in London. Let's turn now to the legal rules meant to stop countries going to war with each other. After the Second World War, the United Nations Charter set out a clear prohibition on the use of force between states in an effort to prevent the kind of large scale conflicts that had devastated the first half of the 20th century. But as tensions escalate around Iran and government's reach for unilateral military action, some legal scholars warn that repeated violations risk weakening those rules. Well, from Florence, I'm joined now by Patrick Wall, co founder of the Global Strategic Initiatives Group, an impact driven consultancy in international affairs and international laws. Patrick, welcome to the Globalist on Monocle. It's lovely to have you as a contributor for us. Can you explain the prohibition on the use of force and why it became such a central pillar of the post World War order?
- [13:56]
Patrick Wall
Good morning Georgina. Thank you so much for having me. Thanks for the question. I mean, it's really easy to Forget now in 2026 that just a century ago war was widely considered to be a very legitimate tool of national policy. Aggressive wars could be waged to settle trade disputes, seize territory and just weaken adversaries who you had some kind of disagreement with. Now there were moral limitations on going to war, but very few legal restraints and there was certainly no legal prohibition. And you can see the impact of this in something like the fact that the assassination of a minor royal in The Balkans in 1914 triggered the entirety of the First World War. But as you say, after the devastation of those two world wars, the founders of the United Nation got together and said, this is enough, we're not going to do this anymore. We are going to renounce the use of aggressive war as a legitimate tool of foreign policy. And it's only going to be in conditions of self defence or where the United Nations Security Council has authorised it, that we're going to allow violent conflict to take place.
- [15:00]
Georgina Godwin
So why do those rules still matter even when the regime in question, Iran in this case, is widely seen as brutal and illegitimate?
- [15:09]
Patrick Wall
Well, I mean there are many brutal regimes around the world, Georgina, who abuse their citizens at home, they destabilize abroad. And it's quite legitimate and quite understandable that people feel relief when some of these regimes fall. But we all have our own ideas about who is awful, who is repressive, who the world would be better off without. And ultimately, if the legality of removing a leader or toppling a regime depends on how awful they are, then the rule becomes discretionary and it no longer starts to create, it no longer holds up, this system of non intervention and non aggressive war that have quite frankly, for the last 80 years, contributed to the most peaceful and prosperous period in all of human history.
- [15:51]
Georgina Godwin
So how do repeated violations weaken the rule and create wider risks?
- [15:57]
Patrick Wall
Well, Georgina, laws are broken in every legal system. The real question, as far as I'm concerned, is whether after a violation the law still shapes the expectations and the behaviour of people operating within that system. Now in domestic systems, of course, this is determined in large part by law enforcement who impose punishments for violations of domestic law. But at the international level there's no police force. And so the ongoing validity of the rule depends on collective respect, on everyone agreeing that the rule is valid and should be respected. Now, every time a rule like this is violated in a system like the international system with no central enforcement, then it erodes a little bit, it becomes a little bit weaker. And if the violation is egregious or if the party violating is particularly influential, then it erodes a little bit faster. If other end members of the international community fail to call out violations for what they are, then it erodes further still. And eventually, and we don't know when this would be, and you can't predict it, but eventually, at some point you reach a point where there's no longer a consensus that the rule is valid and should be enforced. And that stability that this particular rule has brought to the world for the last 80 years is no longer shaping expectations, no longer shaping behaviors. And I think we at that point drift back into a might make right wool world which is more violent and less prosperous.
- [17:23]
Georgina Godwin
So I mean, you've outlined this, but I wonder if you could just talk a little bit more about where we go from here if that prohibition continues to erode.
- [17:33]
Patrick Wall
Well, I think we need to have, and I sympathise greatly for some of the leaders around the world who quite frankly, have failed to call out this particular violation for what it is. But we need to reaffirm as an international community, we need to be reaffirming this rule. We need to be calling out violations when they exist. And violations have taken place on both sides of the present conflict, I hasten to add. But if we don't fail, if we don't call out these violations, then we need to start thinking about what this rule could mean or the breakdown of this rule could mean in other situations. What does it mean for China and Taiwan? What does it mean for India and Pakistan, for Ethiopia and Eritrea? And so I think ultimately, if we are not going to uphold this rule, we need to start thinking about what the international order is going to look like in the next 10 to 20 years. Years. Because this bedrock principle has been the foundation of the stability that we've enjoyed for the last decades.
- [18:26]
Georgina Godwin
Patrick, thank you very much indeed. That's Patrick Wall there, co founder of the Global Strategic Initiatives Group, speaking to me from Florence now. Still to come on the program, they
- [18:37]
Manus
did the monster Mash.
- [18:40]
Georgina Godwin
It was a graveyard smash, according to the latest data. Readers are turning to horror stories. We'll bring you more on that and the London Book Fair later on in the show. This is the globalist
- [18:57]
UBS Narrator
craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
- [19:32]
Georgina Godwin
Well, let's continue now with today's newspapers and joining me in the studio is Claudine Fry, who's partner at Control Risk. Good morning to you, Claudine.
- [19:40]
Claudine Fry
Good morning.
- [19:41]
Georgina Godwin
So I want to start with the Kyiv Post and this story that the UK has revealed military maintenance sites in Ukraine for the first time. What's the detail on that?
- [19:51]
Claudine Fry
Yes, let's give some focus to the other war, one of the other wars, I should say. Yes, the Kyiv Post reporting on a bulletin that it says was issued by the UK government a few days ago, confirming for the first time that there are UK provided maintenance, repair and overall overhaul facilities in Ukraine which are responsible for repairing armoured vehicles and other military equipment. And they're also, in so doing, providing well paid engineering jobs for Ukrainians. So an example of the kind of support that the UK is continuing to provide for Ukraine, much of which has not actually been very widely reported or even publicly known over the last four years.
- [20:40]
Georgina Godwin
So it's also been pointed out in the Guardian and the people involved say that they acknowledge the risks involved in having the facility there, but that it's a risk worth taking.
- [20:51]
Claudine Fry
Well, exactly. I think it's a real testament to the level of commitment that the UK has made to supporting Ukraine of course along with other European allies and the United States, although of course that support from the US has become increasingly uncertain over the past year or so. But yes, unquestionably a huge risk associated with it. And there's going to be some very difficult questions to address coming up around how far the UK and other European countries in particular are prepared to go in terms of accepting probably a much greater degree of risk to carry on supporting Ukraine than indeed even to support preserving the peace in the event of any deal being struck with Russia in the future.
- [21:33]
Georgina Godwin
Now there's a couple of really interesting stories coming out of Germany and firstly, let's have a look at the FT which says the German Chancellor's party heads for a narrow defeat in the key regional election.
- [21:44]
Claudine Fry
Yes. So I've picked a piece from the Financial Times, but of course this is being reported in many papers here in Europe today because there are a series of important state level elections in Germany this year and this is the first of five and it's significant because it's the first real test for the ruling Christian Democrats and an indicator of support for the hard right AFD which is in this particular case. So what's happened first is a state election in Baden Wurttemberg and here the Christian Democrats have not performed strongly but the Greens, which are the incumbents at state level here, they seem to have performed very, very well. But perhaps the biggest story is really that the AfD has, it looks like the results are not fully finalised yet. But it looks like from what we know so far that the alternative for Germany, that's the hard right party that is performing very well nationally with Germany, that in this state level election has doubled its vote share and it's on track to probably win at least two of the other state level election elections due to take place this year.
- [22:58]
Georgina Godwin
Now the, the Liberal Free Democrats have continuously won seats in the regional parliament since 1952, failed to even cross the 5% threshold that, that allows representation. Why is that?
- [23:10]
Claudine Fry
Yeah, that's right. So this, this is a sort of, I think this is an election in Germany which confirms a number of long term continuing trends with respect to voter sentiment and, and a sort of move rightwards on, on issues relating to m deep concerns about the economy. And this is a part of Germany which is well known as a sort of manufacturing export powerhouse. And so there is a real concern about what's happening in this, in this state, particularly with respect to competition from China and de. Industrialization and that's feeding through into the way that voters are choosing to vote. And interestingly though, it is notable that the Greens are performing so well. And of course, we've seen that here in the UK with the recent local election, where rather than the hard right, it was actually the Greens that performed very strongly.
- [24:04]
Georgina Godwin
So what does all this mean for
- [24:05]
Claudine Fry
Friedrich Merz, a Chancellor under even more pressure? His poll ratings have been troubling. He's really struggled to project authority and sustain levels of support within Germany, despite the fact that, I think from abroad, he seems to have really played a very convincing and authoritative role with respect to foreign policy and seizing the initiative with transforming Germany's approach to defending itself to military spending, to adjusting to a very different engagement with the United States, to managing the European response, to supporting Ukraine in the context of weakening U.S. engagement. But nonetheless, domestically, and it probably relates at least partly to that economic situation, he's really under a lot of pressure.
- [25:01]
Georgina Godwin
I wanted to follow another German story now, but this has got huge impact for the British media. And this is that Axel Springer, the huge German media giant, has bought the Telegraph, which is of course this very right leaning newspaper here. It was due to be bought by the Daily Mail and so, you know, that would have just established its position as a right leaning paper. But this is a complete turnout for the books, as they say.
- [25:32]
Claudine Fry
Yes, that's right. And those of us in the uk, we know that the Telegraph, it's sometimes known as the Tory graph because it's so closely associated with the Conservative Party here, known as the Tories. And so there is quite a bit of chuckling indeed about the fact that there could be German owners of this newspaper. This is a newspaper associated very closely with people who supported Brexit and who are very strongly Eurosceptic on a continuing basis. So, yes, there are some questions around how the readership of the Telegraph will feel about this new ownership. And notably it does have to be approved by the government here. So it's not fully finalized yet. But this is a very, very long running saga around the ownership of this newspaper and it may not be quite over yet, but it certainly looks to be closer than it has been so far to what might be described as a sort of ironic conclusion.
- [26:29]
Georgina Godwin
Tell us more about Lord Rothermere, who was very, very keen on acquiring.
- [26:34]
Tira Shubert
Hearing it.
- [26:35]
Claudine Fry
Yes, Lord Rothermere is a sort of well known peer here in the uk, enormously wealthy family and one that owns the. The Daily Mail. And he had been looking to secure the Daily Telegraph and the Sunday Telegraph for quite some time, which would have, you know, as you mentioned, really cemented the, the sort of extraordinary authority and, and, and perhaps influence of this particular group of. And he's been very open about his genuine interest in making the acquisition of the Daily Mail. But there were very, very serious concerns within the uk, which the government has shared around what his ownership of the Daily Mail would mean when it comes to sort of media plurality and questions around concentration of ownership. And as a piece in the Guardian points out, there have also been some concerns about how Lord Rothermere would have been able to raise the 500 million pounds that were demanded for the purchase of the Daily Mail by the Redbird AMI group that currently owns it.
- [27:43]
Georgina Godwin
So I wonder how much Axel Springer will interfere politically and editorially with this. Do we expect the tone of the Telegraph to change?
- [27:52]
Claudine Fry
That is a key question and something that that Tory readership, that Eurosceptic Tory leadership will be very keenly awaiting a sense of direction on. It seems that the Axel Springer CEO is very sensitive to concerns about the potential influence he would make on the Daily Telegraph. And he's already expressed very warm and positive supportive opinions about the work that the Daily Telegraph currently produces for its current newsroom, including the current editor. And he's indicated that he would very much continue to support the editorial independence of the newspaper and support its adoption of AI tools to keep it current and so on. But of course, remains to be seen.
- [28:46]
Georgina Godwin
Well, let's end on dogs, and not just any dog spaniels, which everybody knows are the absolute best.
- [28:53]
Claudine Fry
As the owner of a spaniel, I can confirm that.
- [28:56]
Georgina Godwin
Oh, really? What kind of spaniel have you got?
- [28:58]
Claudine Fry
A working cocker?
- [28:59]
Georgina Godwin
Okay, I have a Springer. This story is in fact about a clumber.
- [29:03]
Claudine Fry
Yes. I'd actually never heard of Clumber Spaniels, but here you go. So we have in the UK this crafts dog competition, which some people may have heard of around the world. It is one of the biggest and astonishingly, it's been going since 1891. And this year there were an estimated 18,600 dogs participating in all sorts of activities, obedience contests, agility courses, even a dance competition with their owners. But the best in show has this year gone to. Yes, a Clumber spaniel called Bruin.
- [29:36]
Georgina Godwin
Well, congratulations to Bruin and adorable pictures there. Actually, it's just worth looking at the article just for all the great pictures. And indeed, the television cover bridge has been brilliant, hasn't it? And this little puppy from Kyiv that came and just did so well, I thought that was wonderful.
- [29:51]
Claudine Fry
Oh, so wonderful. Yes. So heartwarming.
- [29:53]
Georgina Godwin
Claudine, thank you so much. That's Claudine Fry, who's a partner at Control Risks. And you're with the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Israel says it carried out a drone strike in central Beirut targeting senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders linked to the Quds Force. Lebanese authorities say at least four people were killed in the attack, the first Israeli strike inside Beirut since fighting with Hezbollah resumed and part of a widening regional conflict. An explosion at the public entrance of the US Embassy in Oslo caused minor damage but no injuries in the early hours of Sunday morning. Norwegian police say terrorism is one possible explanation and have launched an investigation. Well, working with U.S. diplomats to establish what happened. And Swiss voters have rejected a referendum proposal to cut the license fee that funds the Swiss broadcasting corporation, with 62% voting to keep the current system in place. In a separate vote, around 70% backed a constitutional guarantee that the Swiss national bank must ensure the continued supply of cash across the country. This is the Global List. Stay tuned. On Saturday, Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada, sat down with Monocle's editorial director and chairman, Tyler Brulee in Tokyo. This was the final stop on a tour that's taken Carney to India and Australia and comes less than two months after he made a widely praised speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. In that address, Carney spoke of the need for middle powers to work more closely together in a divided world. In this conversation recorded in the Canadian embassy, the two men discussed the now famous Davos speech and how to navigate the new world order.
- [31:53]
Mark Carney
I think the message did get through. It got through more broadly than I would have anticipated before speaking to a specific crowd. But the popular take up of it, and it can be on the streets of Japan, Australia, of Canada, a number of people will just come up to me and they will have heard of the speech and agree with the message. And that tells me one thing is that people were already there. They'd already figured it out themselves and just hadn't been expressed necessarily by someone like me. The second thing is that at the core of that speech, the pivot in the middle of the speech is towards a positive agenda. We have these challenges. Integration's being weaponized. What do you do about it? Well, you go find countries that share your values on specific issues. They're not going to share your values on everything. And then you build together and you recognize at the same time is that you can't be truly sovereign, you can't be truly independent just by yourself. But if you pair up with somebody who's going to use that relationship against you, then of course, again, you're not truly someone sovereign, truly independent. There's a wide range of aspects of this. Security in the Arctic, for example, cooperation with what's called the Nordic Baltic Gate as a prime example there, cooperation with Australia, for example, on critical minerals, a variety of other areas as well. Defence cooperation, we may talk more about that. Again, diversifying your defence partnerships at a time when the nature of defence is changing pretty rapidly. And, and crucially, what you do over here on defense can also help build peacetime capabilities. Artificial intelligence, quantum computing is two of many examples. So, yes, very intense engagement. Obviously you need to prioritize and you need to execute. How much does that need to be formalized, this sort of notion of a middle 10 or a M10, or does it need a framework? I don't think so. And that's not what we're pursuing. This is not. Middle powers of the world unite and we got the T shirt. There's definitely a branding opportunity. Well, I'm talking to the right guy. But the, and the way we put it, you're not going to agree with everybody on everything at the same time or with the same intensity and prioritization. So the coalition of the willing, which is backstopping Ukraine, it's quite broad, but it's not everybody. And that is different than who will come together on critical minerals, for example. And it's different from something that is again, bigger, much more ambitious, which is something we are working with the Australians and others, which is to bring together the Trans Pacific Partnership, CPTPP and the European Union as one connected trading bloc of one and a half billion people, in fact would be the biggest, far and away the biggest trade block in the world. And that's what you can do when you search for issues where you have common ground. One of the things I think is necessary is speed. We're in a, what we've called a rupture, a big shift in the way the world's operating. Now is the time to be engaged, put together a dense web of connections, a group of these coalitions that's going to help improve the situation. Here we are in Tokyo. You would sort of say from an Ottawa perspective, a lot of looking across the Atlantic, a bigger focus across the Pacific now, without question, bigger focus across the Pacific. It started with repairing relations that were deeply damaged, for good reason, but damaged. And we needed to have the engagement re establish the engagement with China, with India. We've accomplished that. And you See the differences in the level of engagement with China and with. There is a bigger overlap in terms of shared interests, shared values between two democracies in the case of Canada and India, of course, than there is with Canada and China. The Chinese understand that. In fact it was an element of the early discussions I had with President Xi about where are the guardrails on this relationship, where we agree to disagree. So we start there, but then more broadly a host of deeper relationships. Korea. Canada and Korea. The overlap between our two countries is enormous. The areas for our cooperation, everything from in defense. We're talking with them and alongside with the Germans and the Norwegians trying to decide on submarine. Perspectives on space. Satellite communications, again, critical minerals. They are some of the most important automotive companies in Canada. Cultural connections. I'm going to throw a few others if I'm may. We're negotiating a free trade agreement with Philippines. We've launched negotiations with Thailand, of course. I'm just coming here from Australia, where we really stepped up the relationship. And then also India. Deepening. So we have deep ties with Europe, we have deep institutional ties. CETA is one example. The free trade agreement with the European Union. We're taking that to another level through a very broad strategic partnership arrangement. So all of that's there, that gets deepened. But I think you sense maybe from my list the importance of this region in relative terms. Let's talk about this place though. Japan. Within all of this, one of our biggest foreign investors in Canada. The auto sector is a great place to start. 70% of the vehicles produced in Canada are by Japanese companies. We provide 10% of the calories to Japan to give the other side in terms of our food and agri food. But at both levels, even though we have $40 billion worth of two way trade each year, again there is huge opportunity for that to deepen across particularly these strategic sectors, if I could put it that way. So even defence potentially as well, yes. In fact what we have with this visit is a deepening in defence cooperation, information sharing, joint economic exercises, those elements. Canada is the second most present of the G7 in defence. Here we have a virtually. It's not quite 365 days a year, but it's pretty close in terms of maritime exercise, air exercises. And then related to that, we are both increasing our defence spend. To put some numbers around it. Over the course of the next decade, Canada will invest around 500 billion. A significant proportion, as you would expect of that is in defense. Submarines, aircraft, drones, material that's necessary particularly to protect our Arctic, which is where the threats are rising. But just as much, if not more is spent in what's called dual use. Think Newports, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, which is all of which is necessary to move forward. And some of the developments that again on the resource side are directly tied to the military side but have broader economic benefits for the country. We're doing that and we're looking to do as much of that as possible with our closest partners.
- [38:54]
Georgina Godwin
That was Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney speaking to Monocle's editorial director Tyler Brulee at the Canadian Embassy in Tokyo. You're listening to the Globalist. It's 1538 in Beijing, 838 in Zurich. Europe's economic relationship with China is coming under increasing scrutiny as a widening trade deficit and a search of Chinese industrial exports raise questions about the continent's competitiveness. The debate has sharpened this week as China's National People's Congress currently underway in Beijing, sets the country's economic direction, including a new five year roadmap focused on artificial intelligence, intelligence and advanced manufacturing. Today, Asia Society Switzerland is hosting an Oxford style debate asking whether Europe's economy is threatened by China, while Zanmei Sheh, who is a leading analyst of China's political economy and geo economic trends as well as a senior fellow of the Society, is in Zurich and joins me from our studio on Duffel Strasse now. Welcome. Europe's trade deficit with China hit about 370, 60 billion euro last year. What drove that and is it continuing?
- [40:15]
Yanmei Sheh
Thank you for having me. Since you mentioned the trade deficit. So let's start unpacking that. Right. So if we look at the euro value, Europe import about twice as much as it exports to China. But if we look at the volume in terms of container, for every four containers of goods Europe imports from China, it sends back only one.
- [40:37]
Georgina Godwin
Right.
- [40:38]
Yanmei Sheh
So that means much of the driver comes from depreciation in China from the cost reduction as well as R and B depreciation. That makes Chinese goods a lot more competitive and European goods a lot less so. And I think also it's not just the volume and the headline euro number, it's also the composition that can be of concern to Europe because a lot of the Chinese imports are now increasingly concentrated in the high value added, high tech, capital intensive sectors which comprise of the sort of the industrial base, industrial backbone of Europe. These are in cars, electric equipment, machineries, advanced chemicals.
- [41:26]
Georgina Godwin
China's unveiled a new five year roadmap. Can you tell us what's in the
- [41:30]
Yanmei Sheh
that I would sum it as I think the top line, the headline, we probably can say that China is continuing on a trajectory of full spectrum techno industrial self sufficiency as well as superiority. So if we look at China's industrial plan, it plans to, let me quote, optimize and upgrade, upgrade traditional industries, expand and strengthen emerging industries, and forward deploy future industries. So it covers everything from steel, cement, textile, to electric vehicles, satellites, and to the future industries. These include robotics, satellites, embodied autonomous driving cars, even flying cars. Right. So it's on a quest for full spectrum, from low value added, labor intensive to tech intensive futuristic industries.
- [42:34]
Georgina Godwin
So how's all this going to affect Europe? How worried should policymakers be?
- [42:39]
Yanmei Sheh
I think policymakers should be concerned because given where China is, its current competitiveness, Right, So it's quite dominant already in the traditional legacy industries. So China, China has, I think, more than half of the world's steel production capacity, more than half of shipbuilding, 80% in the solar industry, for example, and more than half of batteries, electric vehicles. And as China pursues these emerging and future industries, such capacity expansion will be expanding to those industries as well. Right. So that means there is no safe safety for European companies. They cannot retreat to legacy industries and it's hard to upgrade into those future industries as well.
- [43:25]
Georgina Godwin
So talking about future industries, I wonder how serious China's challenge to the US is in the global AI race and where that leaves Europe if competition between those two superpowers continues to intensify.
- [43:38]
Yanmei Sheh
Yeah, the competition in the AI sector between US and China is, let's say, red hot. Right. I would say both Europe and both the US and China are fundamentally quite tech optimistic countries. Right. So both of them kind of think that AI is definitely the future and there's no deviating or blocking it. But they kind of pursue AI strategy also from different ways. So the US is trying to pursue the cutting edge. Right. The holy grail is the artificial general intelligence. China is seeing AI in a fundamentally very different, different ways. China describes AI in a lot more kind of pedestrian, prosaic terms. So AI to China is like electricity. It is something, it's a tool that humans can use to upgrade production, to upgrade consumption, to make everyday life more convenient, to make the governance more convenient, also make the government easier to kind of like monitor and control the population as well. So I think China is a lot more certain that it is able to use AI simply as a controllable tool, while the US kind of describes AI as almost a godlike creature that can have an unpredictable effect.
- [44:59]
Georgina Godwin
And finally, just briefly tell us a little about this event today in Switzerland.
- [45:05]
Yanmei Sheh
Right. So we will have two teams. Right? So on my side of the team, we're going to argue that China's economic model, its export driven model, should be of concern to Europe, be concerned to the European economy. And I think our opponents will argue that we probably are overly concerned and that there are reasons for optimism for Europe. So I think it will be a very, very interesting, lively event.
- [45:33]
Georgina Godwin
Yanmai, thank you very much. Much indeed. That's Jan Mai Shea in our Zurich studio. She is a senior fellow at the Asia Society of Switzerland. And this is Monocle Radio.
- [45:47]
UBS Narrator
Iq, EQ and AI, three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft.
- [46:22]
Georgina Godwin
Now I'm joined in the studio by Emmanuel Papaverselio, who's a Greek journalist and Monocle contributor, to look at the main stories coming out of Greece this week. And of course, a I think we should probably start with Greece and the Middle east war, how it's affecting the country.
- [46:38]
Manus
Yes, basically the Middle east war is what is dominating headlines right now in Greece. Obviously that's across the world. However, you know, based on the geography, Greece is extremely concerned, mainly after this drone that hit the Akrotiri RAF base in Cyprus. So today Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is trying traveling to Cyprus alongside French President Macron and they're going to talk about support. And already Greece has sent its very brand new frigate called Kimon, which can, it's just a massive ship which holds like about four F16s on it. They have also sent F16s into the country to support it as a result. Basically what they're fearing now because Iran has been targeting a lot of American bases, they are fearing that the American base in Crete might be in danger. So as a result, they have started pumping up the defenses in all of their islands in the west. However, what we need to point out here is that this has sparked a response from Turkey. And Turkey has put out an open statement about, you know, they want demilitarization of islands, that this is a provocation. This was accompanied on Thursday by like eight airspace violations in the Aegean by Turkey, widely interpreted as manifestation of Ankara's irritation. And now Turkey is considering putting some F16s of their own on the Turkish occupied section of Cyprus. So what I'm trying to say with all this is that despite just, it's not just a, a war between the us, Israel and Iran in the Middle east, what's happening here is that old problems, pre existing problems and tensions can also be, you know, blown up into proportions. And this is what we're fearing.
- [48:44]
Georgina Godwin
Let's have a look at Greek shipping and the state of Hormuz. It seems that that one prominent shipping magnet has decided to keep going.
- [48:53]
Manus
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So this is, this is shipping, Shipping magnet. This is George Procopio. He's the founder of Dynacom Tankers, who despite the closure of Strait of Hormuz, has decided to take this opportunity and run his oil tankers through the danger. This, this has made a lot of headlines for him. Like they call him a buccaneer in Greece. They, they, they love to glorify a person making a lot of money out of danger in Greece like Onas and like narcos. In fact, not just Greece, but like there's been a lot of headlines internationally like the FT is writing about him. The Wall Street Journal has done a thing about him. They basically like they have headlines like he ships defy missiles in the Strait of Hormuz as Onassis and Nyahos once did. What's happening here is that he has at least, last week, at least 5 of his time tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. They are basically switching off their trackers before they enter and they're switching them back on after they exit. Basically his strategy involves assessing that basically oil importers will pay very high freight rates for transport out of war zones. He's making a daily rate of $440,000 per trip. And, and yes, Greeks, you know, here's the talk of the town because Greeks do love to glorify those men who make money. However, yeah, it's a bit of an issue.
- [50:29]
Georgina Godwin
Now there's been a change in rules because the Greek parliament has approved legislation allowing Greek expats to vote by mail in national elections. Tell me more about this.
- [50:40]
Manus
That's great news, especially for like the millions of expats like myself. Yeah, moving out a little bit of the war here. But this is amazing because there's millions of experts like myself abroad. We haven't been able to vote in Greek elections. We had to always travel all the time. Now this current government has taken the first step during the European parliament elections in 2024 to be able to vote by post. And now last week they just approved the final bit and we will be able to vote in the next elections in 2020, 27 by post and hoping, I'm guessing, hoping that this current government will aim to, you know, think that they, you know, we owe them this bit of democracy and maybe that will turn into their favor.
- [51:29]
Georgina Godwin
And then just very briefly, Greece is aiming to transform a previously neglected region of the north into a major data hub.
- [51:36]
Manus
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, like, this is in Kozani. Kozani is a very poor area. It used to be like an old coal mining town. Now, very, very poor. However, this place is offering like a large, like, you know, stable, you know, advantages, huge valleys, green. And now with the, the government is in talks with like major tech companies, Google, Microsoft and Amazon Web Services in order to transform it. They're going to pump 5.75 billion euros and transform it into a major Dutch hub. And basically what they're trying to do is like, they would like to store all the Greek state and private data domestically there, position Greece as a regional data hub serving the Balkans, potentially Ukraine as well. And also after that, they will try to, like, attract Gulf states to seek, you know, secure data storage hub, potentially targeting this. And it's good, it's good for the area, it's good for the, the, you know, previously neglected poor area, now, you know, being the center of the world when it comes to data in the Balkans. And it's quite good news.
- [52:42]
Georgina Godwin
Where does the money come from?
- [52:44]
Manus
The money is going to come from. Basically it's from the, from the Greek government. It's not like a specific European project, but yeah, this is, this is, this is basically where the Greek government is spending money right now in like a new tech, tourism sector and defense.
- [53:08]
Georgina Godwin
And so the project is obviously going to generate employment. There'll be lots of jobs.
- [53:14]
Manus
Yes, that's a good thing. There's going to be a lot of jobs and there's going to be, hopefully we will see some sort of, you know, reincarnation of this old area that no one talks about anymore.
- [53:27]
Georgina Godwin
Manus, thank you very much indeed. The world's biggest spring book trade event, the London Book Fair, begins tomorrow. Participants from publishers all over the world are converging on Olympia to do deals, discuss foreign rights, talk about books and importantly, socialise. I'm joined now by Philip Stone, who's head of Publisher Account Management at Nielsen IQ Book Data. Philip, many thanks for coming on the show. Now the UK is celebrating the National Year of Reading. Tell us about this campaign.
- [54:03]
Philip Stone
Yeah, so the National Year of Reading is a campaign trying to encourage people to read, really, to pick up to Pick up a book to get back into it. There's been a lot published recently about how in particular like children's engagement in reading has hit a 20 year low. So the national Year of reading is kind of a campaign that the whole industry is kind of getting behind and the government as well to make reading a priority and yeah, what are people reading then?
- [54:31]
Georgina Godwin
Because your organizations crunch the data. Is there, is there one particular genre that comes out on top?
- [54:37]
Philip Stone
I mean at the moment it's definitely adult fiction. Novels are having a real moment and especially genre fiction, so I'm told. We're talking crime novels, we're talking thrillers. Horror, horror market is doing very well. Graphic novels and manga in particular. But the kind of the real Star wars within fiction has been the growth of fantasy books and specifically fantasy romance or Romantasy as it's, as, as it's become to be known.
- [55:00]
Georgina Godwin
Ah, dragons fornicating.
- [55:03]
Philip Stone
Exactly, exactly. Yes. Yeah, your words, not mine. But yeah, yeah, I think, yeah, that's, that's accurate. I think the big, there's a couple of big reasons behind this. I think social media and TikTok and the BookTok community in particular and then also the kind of the growth of subscription boxes which offer subs subscribers a chance to receive kind of exclusive editions with for example sprayed edges or raised lettering and things like that and then tie in merchandise as well. So yeah, those, those two things are really kind of boosting the, the, the romantasy market.
- [55:35]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. Now I see that right at the very top one of the very best selling authors is Richard Osman. Now he is obviously a celebrity author. Are we seeing a rise in titles from people with a public presence?
- [55:48]
Philip Stone
I wouldn't say a rice. I think it's pretty consistent really. I think that every year there's always been, you know, people in the, the public eye who you know, sit on Graham, Graham Norton sofa and chat about their books. There's always been that consistency. Perhaps less so in fiction but certainly like you know, the bestselling cook. Cookbook writers over the years have always been chefs with TV shows. The best selling memoirs have often been, you know, celebrities who are very much in the public eye. But yeah, Richard Osman in fiction. Yeah. Has enviable, enviable sales statistics. He's, yeah. Guarantee his books are always a guaranteed bestseller as they always in the first week sell about 100,000 copies if not more. So yeah, he's a, he's a publishing powerhouse.
- [56:36]
Georgina Godwin
And how is nonfiction doing? So I'm chairing a session at the fair on Wednesday about The role of nonfiction in shaping ideas and debate. I wonder what your view is on how important literature is within that sphere.
- [56:50]
Philip Stone
I mean, I love nonfiction. I always read non fiction. But I think it's fair to say that non fiction sector has found it tough over the past few years. In fact, last year volume sales within non fiction in terms of print at least hit an all time low since our official sales records began in 1998. I think that's probably a combination of different, different reasons that unique to specific subgenres in non fiction that's causing this. So for example, in the reference section in the reference sector dictionaries to. So.
- [57:18]
Georgina Godwin
Right.
- [57:19]
Philip Stone
That sector has lost sales to the fact that, you know, everyone has a smartphone with them that carries a dictionary. I think the travel sector has lost sales a little bit to kind of smartphone maps and websites like TripAdvisor. And then more recently personal development, although it's much larger than it once was, perhaps lost ground a little bit to the kind of plethora of mental health apps and free advice, free advice online and through podcasts. I also think nonfiction books tend to be a little bit more expensive than fiction perhaps. And given the cost of living, perhaps nonfiction is more exposed during economically cautious times. But having said all that, it's still worth a huge amount of money. I think it was like it was almost a billion pounds was spent on nonfiction print books in the UK last year. So there's certainly still a, still a healthy appetite for non fiction.
- [58:03]
Georgina Godwin
Now there's also a series of conversations taking place at the, at LBF at the London Book Fair on Wednesday. Particular in the salon English PEN are hosting, which is of course English PEN's the Writers and Readers Human rights organization. They're hosting a series of conversations looking at issues from censorship pressures on bookshops and libraries to the role of independent publishing and what books can do in an increasingly illiberal world. And I wonder if those debates are becoming more central to the industry. Looking at as we are on the brink of, of crisis, what happens next?
- [58:39]
Philip Stone
Oh yeah, absolutely. Yeah, yeah, without a doubt. I think. Yeah. The industry has been wrestling with the censorship for, well, for, for, for many years. But yeah, in particular, within recent years, it's become more relevant and more crucial a conversation than ever. Yeah.
- [59:00]
Georgina Godwin
Now your data tracks book sales in 19 countries. How do they compare with, with each other?
- [59:07]
Philip Stone
Oh, I think there's, there's some common trends, but I think every market is really unique and it's fascinating diving into the, to the data. I think certainly in 2025. The thing that we saw that united the territories where we operate, the thing that united the most was definitely adult fiction and the strength of adult fiction and in particular crime novels, and in particular crime novels written by Freda McFadden, who was second only to Julia Donaldson last year as the best selling author in the uk. So yeah, I think people across, across the globe have really, what the data says to me is they just, they just really want escapism at the moment, they really want to be distracted, they really want to be entertained and given everything else that's going on, I can't, Yeah, I can't blame them.
- [59:51]
Georgina Godwin
Fred, before you go, just the, the idea that bookshops are becoming, I want to say homogenized. Every airport you go to, it's the same books. Is that sad?
- [60:07]
Philip Stone
Is that sad? Do I have an opinion on that?
- [60:10]
Georgina Godwin
I mean, wouldn't it be wonderful for every bookshop to have its own beautifully curated selection instead of the same 10 paperbacks laid out on the front table and they are all by those names that you've just mentioned.
- [60:22]
Philip Stone
I think, I mean, I think if you've, if you've got a Richard Osmond for example, I think every bookshop will want to stock it and they'll want to stock it front of house, in the windows, you know, so they want to grab people's attentions. But I think what I love about the industry is that, you know, every bookshop owner has the, has the power to kind of curate, you know, their own stock. So the first, the place that I go to when I walk into any bookshop, whether that's a chain bookshop that works with waterstones or local independence in where I live in South London, is I head straight to the Recommends Bay because I love it, I love finding new things and I think, you know, the booksellers, having been a former bookseller, I can, I can completely say that they're the experts and yeah, so they have the power to curate their own, their own stock and, you know, more power to them because, yeah, I, I, I've, I've read so many gem like hidden gems that would never have picked up if it wasn't for booksellers promoting to me in their recommend space.
- [61:20]
Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. Philip, thank you very much. I'll see you at lbf. That's Philip Stone, head of Publisher Account management at Nielsen IQ Book Data. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Chris Chermack, Tom Webb and Hassan Anderson, our researcher Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager Mariella Bevan. After. After the headlines. There's more music on the way and the briefing is live at midday in London. The Globalist will return at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global
- [62:12]
UBS Narrator
partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what this is, what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.