← The Globalist
Loading summary
Transcript99 lines
- [00:04]
UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
- [00:38]
Georgina Godwin
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 23rd February 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Hello, this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, we're either going to get a deal or it's going to be unfortunate for them.
- [01:22]
Sanam Vakil
I would think there'll be enough time, 10, 15 days.
- [01:25]
Georgina Godwin
As the counter clicks down to a nuclear deal or a possible war between the US And Iran, we'll look at the situation on the ground and how the Middle east is preparing for more conflict. There's a constitutional crisis in Taiwan. We'll ask how this is affecting defence preparedness as China circles the contested territory. We'll rustle through the front pages, including Trump's tariff defeat by the Supreme Court. And then we'll be in Stuttgart to analyze the first big gathering of the German CDU party since Friedrich Merz took office and ask if this was also a comeback event for Angela Merkel. Then violence flared overnight in Mexico after law enforcement officers killed the head of a prominent drug cartel. We'll cross to Mexico City for more. We'll have a look at how tech policy is shaping up. And then we'll hear all about the Winter Olympics closing ceremony and what the Games have delivered from Brand Milan. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Donald Trump says he will raise a temporary global Import tariff to 15% after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down much of his earlier trade policy. Hong Kong's Court of Appeal has upheld long prison sentences for pro democracy activists in the landmark Hong Kong 47 case, deepening concerns over the city's political crackdown. And as the fourth anniversary of Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine falls tomorrow, Pope Leo has urged an immediate end to the war, while Moscow launched fresh missile and drone attacks overnight. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now pressure is building on Iran. The US has moved more ships and aircraft into the region as Donald Trump pushes for progress on nuclear talks. Britain has blocked the use of UK Air bases while Iran is conducting drills with Russia and issuing live fire warnings near key shipping routes. Well, let's go through what's happening with Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle east and North Africa Program at Chatham House. Sanam, good to have you back with us. How close is an all out conflict?
- [03:44]
Sanam Vakil
Good morning. Well, we are really at a fork in the road moment. The United States has assembled what Donald Trump calls an armada. But we haven't seen this amount of military preparedness in the region since 2003 when the United States launched the war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq.
- [04:08]
Georgina Godwin
So do you think it can be salvaged by negotiations that they meet again in Geneva on Thursday? What's Iran offered?
- [04:15]
Sanam Vakil
Well, this is the third round of negotiations. There's a lot of misinformation or disinformation as to what is really on the table in terms of a deal. The Iranians are keen, I think, to secure a nucle agreement with the Trump administration. And it's important to remember that last summer during the Israel Iran war, the United States also bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. We don't know if the US Wants zero enrichment inside Iran. The Iranians have long held onto their right as a signatory of the non proliferation treaty to enrich uranium for, quote, unquote, peaceful purposes inside the country. So that's on the table in terms of negotiation, including a lot of technical details, but beyond that, obviously to have a much more sustainable deal with Iran. Discussion on Iran's ballistic missile program. If there is a broader conflict, there is some speculation that some of these groups might join in to support Iran against the United States. But it's important to remember that since October 7th and the war Israel launched against Hamas and the war in Gaza, many of these groups have been degraded significantly. So it's just uncertain how the war would unfold. But regional states across the Middle east are very nervous and have lobbied the Trump administration to pursue the diplomatic route first rather than hit Iran and drag the region down in what could be a really devastating conflict.
- [05:58]
Georgina Godwin
What do we know about the hardware that the US has moved into the region in recent days and where they're positioned and what they can do from
- [06:06]
Sanam Vakil
where they well, there are two aircraft carriers but a lot of supporting equipment as well positioned in the Mediterranean in the Arabian Sea. There's of course, a myriad of American bases as well, where the United States has also deployed F15s and other sort of aircraft in order to strike Iran if That's the direction of travel. There are also enough equipment to protect American allies as well from what is expected to be also a serious Iranian retaliation. Iran would probably quickly try to use its ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and drones to also counter strike against Israel and perhaps American bases in the Middle East.
- [07:01]
Georgina Godwin
So Britain's refused to allow the use of RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia. Does that matter? How much does, does it limit US Options?
- [07:10]
Sanam Vakil
The United States has, I mean, for the UK, of course, this is a particular moment. They don't want to be dragged in to another regional war. And perhaps they've learned the lessons from 2003, where they did join in with the United States in toppling Saddam Hussein. So this is maybe a line in the sand. The United States certainly has the military muscle and might to be able to handle this on its own. This is much more a signal from the UK that they're not party to this war and in fact, perhaps prefer the diplomatic route that is also playing out in Geneva. And we'll see after Thursday if something materializes.
- [07:59]
Georgina Godwin
What is Iran doing with its naval drills with Russia? And tell us a little bit more too, about the live fire warnings near the Straits of Hormuz.
- [08:09]
Sanam Vakil
Yes, I think, you know, in the run up to negotiations, Iran has been trying to project through these drills with the Russians just last week, that it does intend to respond quite fiercely. Iran, for well over four decades, through many conflicts with the west and specifically the United States, has persistently threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz, through which much of maritime traffic and energy flow outwards. And so it's unlikely that Iran could fully shut down the Straits of Hormuz for a long period of time. But it could certainly disrupt traffic, perhaps mine the straits as well, and it would fall to the United States and of course, the ships in the region to push back against the IRGC navy in the Persian Gulf, but also to reopen the straits to maritime traffic, and that would create obviously, a spike in energy prices. Iran's strategy here, should we see a war materialize, is to transfer as much of the pain to the region and the international community as a strategy to draw the war to a close quite quickly.
- [09:33]
Georgina Godwin
And what's happening inside Iran as this pressure builds? We seem to have seen a resurgence, emergence of these protests.
- [09:40]
Sanam Vakil
That is a very important question. Iran has certainly, over the past few days, the universities have opened again, and particularly in Tehran, there have been renewed protests by students. These, as far as we can see from the outside, have not been shut down or repressed in A brutal manner. And you know, for your listeners, as a reminder, there were protests for a number of weeks from the end of December to January. And those protests resulted in about 7,000 deaths of protesters. And it was a huge shock to the Iranian leadership, but I think to Iranians more broadly and a reminder of the coercive and repressive capacity of the Islamic Republic. It's not afraid to gun down its people in order to stay in power.
- [10:31]
Georgina Godwin
And sanaem just to end. So Thursday is crunch day. We'll know after that.
- [10:35]
Sanam Vakil
We should know. I think obviously Donald Trump has these deadlines in his mind. We've had 30 day deadline. Now it's a 10 to 15 day deadline. One way or another, we have to see if there is a deal to be struck. Donald Trump in early January told Iranians that help was coming. The fact that help hasn't come and that the US has solely built up military capacity in the Middle east means that they are certainly trying to pursue a diplomatic path first because they recognize that a war with Iran will be risky and it might not produce the quick, easy sort of Venezuela so outcome that Donald Trump is used to.
- [11:16]
Georgina Godwin
Sanaem Vakil, thank you very much indeed. This is the Globalist. It's 1511 in Taipei, 711 here in London. Taiwan is facing a deepening constitutional standoff. Judicial appointments have been blocked. The Constitutional Court has been left unable to function. And a long running budget dispute now threatens to freeze government spending. With defense funding caught in the middle, this political paralysis is starting to look like a security problem. Well, I'm joined now by William Yang, Senior Northeast Asia analyst for the International Crisis Group. William, it's good to have you back with us. Walk us through with what's happening in Taiwan. Right. And how this crisis developed.
- [12:04]
William Yang
So this legislative standoff has basically been going on since President Mai Chindo took office in May 2024. It began with the result of the presidential election in 2024 where he, while winning the presidential election, his party lost the majority in the parliament for the first time in eight years. And the two opposition parties have actually been using their combined majority to really try to press the president and also utilize that as a weight as a leverage against the president. And that has basically resulted in his mandate to really been sidelined and also blocked by the opposition parties. While the opposition parties are advancing several of the controversial bills that are aimed at weakening the government's hands in say, controlling the budget of the country. And this time around, because the domestic gridlock has really deepened since last year, where the ruling party and also the civil society had tried to impeach and removed more than 30 opposition lawmakers and failed in Latin attempt. And so this really has resulted in the opposition party holding the government's proposed budget for 2026 as a hostage since November last year, and it has lasted until now. And we know that this deepening gridlock has also resulted in the defense budget. Both the annual defense budget for 2026, where it's supposed to be more than 3.3% of the GDP, and also a separate special defense budget that that's more than US$40 billion, have both been stuck in the Parliament. And as the US Government really been pushing allies around the world, especially Taiwan, to significantly increase its defense budget, this really has sent a worrying signal to Washington, not only to the White House, but also to Congress across the board, that Taiwan's ability and also willingness to actually defend itself has been put into question because of the domestic gridlock.
- [14:24]
Georgina Godwin
So what happens then if the 2026 budget isn't approved?
- [14:29]
William Yang
So there's actually a way for the government to demand and continue to maintain and make sure that the government operates where the government can actually use the same level of the budget from last year to continue to keep the Gulf government functioning. This is the different design where it's different from the United States, where the government will be forced into shutdown if a government budget is not approved by the parliament. However, I think this throws into greater question as China really enhances its military aggression against Taiwan in recent months, where Taiwan's longer term military preparedness and defense preparedness will be thrown into question because a lot of the key programs that the government is really aiming to roll out will be stuck because of the lack of the necessary funding to actually let it kick into force.
- [15:27]
Georgina Godwin
So how is Beijing responding to the situation?
- [15:31]
William Yang
Beijing obviously, I think welcomes and actually prefers this situation where the domestic politics is really affecting the operation of the government in Taipei across the board. And it really views this as a chance to deepening its accusation and criticism of the current government's plan to enhance the defense budget as a way to ratchet up the tension across the Taiwan Strait and accuse that as a result of the proposed defense budget and at the same time amplifying similar criticisms coming from the opposition parties. So, you know, I think Beijing views this as an opportunity to amplify the division within Taiwan that is no longer just within the between the political parties, but has also deepened and extended into the civil society.
- [16:26]
Georgina Godwin
And what is driving the division at
- [16:29]
William Yang
heart, I believe the core of this division is really the different perceptions about what is the best way to actually preserve Taiwan's democratic way of life and also cross strait stability. While the Taiwanese government and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party have long been advocating for forging even closer ties with the United States, even during the uncertainty that has been injected by the Trump administration because of the pressure of significantly enhancing defense budget, the opposition parties actually viewed the Trump administration's policy as the exact reason why Taiwan should focus now on re engaging with Beijing and finding ways to revive some of the cross strait exchanges. As we have seen, the opposition parties, especially the China friendly KMT has really been focusing on this particular efforts in recent weeks. So you know, I think this, this tension between the different views and different approaches of how to safeguard Taiwan's stability is actually at the heart of why the current division is deepening. And also there seems to be no way out of this division both in the parliament but also within the civil society when people are talking about and debating about their preference for the policy going forward for Taiwan.
- [17:58]
Georgina Godwin
William, thank you very much indeed. That's William Yang in Taipei now. Still to come on the program, dear
- [18:04]
Sanam Vakil
friends, I now declare The Milano Cortina
- [18:08]
Georgina Godwin
2026 Olympic Winter Games closed. Monaco's Andrew Muller will join me to discuss the highlights, controversies and takeaways from the Olympic Winter Games in Milan. This is the globalist.
- [18:28]
UBS Narrator
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights, deliver daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
- [19:04]
Georgina Godwin
Let's continue now with today's newspapers and joining me in the studio is Monocle Radio regular Charles Hecker, who's a Russia analyst and an author of Zero Sum. Now, Charles, you really are a Monocle Radio regular. And indeed we work and play together so often that today we've unconsciously dressed exactly the same. We're both in our blue and white suits.
- [19:24]
Charles Hecker
It's entirely unintentional, I promise you. And I have to tell you that you look a lot better in it than I do.
- [19:29]
Georgina Godwin
Nonsense. Well, I think we're gonna have to post some evidence of that a little bit later on, but let's have a look at the papers. So this is this extraordinary story of an armed intruder who broke into Mar? A Lago. He's been shot dead. And let's take the Times report of this.
- [19:47]
Charles Hecker
That's right. We're going to the Times of London for news from the United States. And this is breaking and developing news, and that is that a 21 year old man from the American state of North Carolina drove 10 hours south to Palm beach and in the middle of the early early morning yesterday broke the barrier of Mar A Lago, the club and presidential residence. When Donald Trump is not at the White House. He had with him a shotgun and a can, a sort of tank of petrol. And he was approached by Palm beach county sheriff's officers and the Secret Service and they asked him to drop the can of petrol and his weapon. And instead he did quite the opposite and he aimed his rifle. And at that point was, in the terms of the Palm Beach County Sheriff's Office, the threat was liquidated, which means that he was killed on the spot by the Secret Service. We don't know that much about this man yet, except that he is called Austin Tucker Martin. He was an illustrator and drew pictures of golf courses, which is what his part of North Carolina is famous for. And he was reported missing by his parents shortly after he left to drive down to Mar A Lago. But this now adds to a growing list of apparent attempts on the president. Of course, the president and his wife Melania were not at Mar A Lago when this happened. That's important to note. But this is the third attempt to threaten the president and his security.
- [21:19]
Georgina Godwin
Let's move to one of your favorite newspapers. That's the Japanese, the Japan Times. And this is about tariff rates, of course. Up in the air again, the economic fog thickens, says the Japan Times.
- [21:32]
Charles Hecker
That's right, the Japan Times slightly mixing its metaphors with tariff rates. Up in the air, the economic fog thickens. This is a very important story for Japan because according to analysis across all of the papers today, Japan will actually now be paying a higher rate of tariffs. As President Trump's original plan was struck down by the Supreme Court. He has shifted to a 10% and then a 15% global rate of tariffs on every country that sends goods to the United States. Here's the problem for Japan. Japan negotiated a special low rate of tariffs in exchange for a multi billion dollar investment program in the United States. That investment program has begun. Japan has begun sending money and launching projects in the United States, but is now going to be paying more tariffs. So the problem here facing Japan and lots of other countries is that they negotiated deals to lower their tariff rates below 15%. Those deals are now in question because why would Japan continue to invest in the United States when now it's paying more tariffs than it had been under the regime that was struck down by the Supreme Court? And so this, this idea of chaos and fog is true. And I guess the final comment on this that we have from the Trump administration is from Scott Besant, the Finance Minister, the Finance Secretary of the United States, who said that Trump is basically going to try to reconstruct the exact same tariff regime that was struck down by the Supreme Court, by cob together a whole bunch of US Policies. And so nobody knows what this is going to look like until it's done.
- [23:20]
Georgina Godwin
I mean, Charles, this is a really big story. We haven't got a lot of time to go into it in depth, but a number of questions arise. Firstly, is this the all important pushback that we've been waiting for? Is this the grown ups in the room finally saying Trump no further? Secondly, what does this mean for economy and for inflation? Because there is talk about the government having now to pay back some of those American companies. And what is the rest of the world going to do about it? I mean, we saw an absolute toddler temper tantrum from Trump over this over the weekend.
- [23:55]
Charles Hecker
You're absolutely right. And the interesting thing is the source of the pushback, Georgina, and that is that it is not coming from the business community just yet. It is not coming from anybody else in the Trump administration just yet. It is coming from the Supreme Court. And that is exactly what triggers the tantrum from Trump. That's a lot of tease right there as soon as the announcement was released. And that is that he personally assaulted the justices on the Supreme Court, both of whom, by the way, he appointed, who went against him in this ruling, joining the liberal majority which was expected. And so what the rest of the world does for this is wait and see. And that is that they are waiting for some of the chaos to settle and they are hoping that at some point cooler heads on trade policy, policy will prevail. It's just that those heads are not yet to be found inside the Trump administration.
- [24:46]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah, yeah. Now he's also getting involved in this row about who owns Netflix, Paramount, Warner Brothers, this whole convoluted knot.
- [24:57]
Charles Hecker
That's right. We're being a bit Trumpy in the headlines today. But I think that is in part the design of the Trump administration. He is flooding our zone this morning, Georgina, with news coming out of the White House. There is a 24 hour deadline looming for the consummation of the deal for either Netflix or Paramount to buy the legendary Warner Brothers studios in Hollywood. And I'll sort of leave the competition between Netflix and Paramount aside, except to note that Paramount is stacked with Trump allies, including the son of Larry Ellison, who is one of the significant Trump supporters out of s. Out of Silicon Valley. Trump is destined is designed to wreck the Netflix deal for Warner Brothers. And what the Financial Times is telling us here is that Trump is demanding that Netflix remove a former Obama administration official from its board of directors. And that's Susan Rice, who was a former national security adviser to President Barack Obama back in the day. She sits on the Netflix board. Trump wants Paramount to take Warner Brothers and not Netflix. And he's saying if she doesn't exit the board, there will be quote, unquote, bad news for Netflix in the future.
- [26:11]
Georgina Godwin
Just a heads up that within the next couple of weeks, I'll be bringing you an interview with Tom Fresner, who was overall chief of Viacom, which of course owned Paramount and who got eased out because of this whole. I mean, it's got roots in all of this. So it's very interesting chatting to him about what he has to say on the this. Of course, he was the man that brought us MTV originally. So that's to come on Meet the Writers. Finally, let's have a look at a very ugly building in a beautiful city which gets a much debated makeover.
- [26:44]
Charles Hecker
We're moving away from the Trump administration and we're moving to the New York Times and their Paris bureau, where they have a towering photo in the newspaper of the Tour Montparnasse, which is the skyscraper in central Paris that everybody loves to hate. Apparently, the Tour Montparnasse is getting a makeover. Finally, the building is being emptied of its tenants. And both the office tower and sort of retail complex that neighbors it will be redone. And what we're told is that this, this tower, which is this monolithic, kind of dark brown, almost black blot on the center of Paris is going to be made to look lighter, made to look more transparent, and I think ultimately made to look less noticeable in the center of Paris. People who visit the city regularly will understand that most of Paris's skyscrapers are actually outside the city limits in a business district called La Defense that's similar to sort of Canary Wharf in London or downtown Manhattan in the United States. But there's a really interesting twist to all of this, Georgina, and that is that in this cavernous complex in the middle of Paris, there's a flock of pigeons that have taken nests and they've recently had chicks and nobody knows what to do with the pigeons, which normally are looked at as an urban pest. But they've got, you know, these, these sort of nests full of pigeon chicks, you know, nesting in the Tor Mon Parnas complex, and nobody knows what to do with them.
- [28:13]
Georgina Godwin
Charles, thank you very much indeed. That's Charles Hecker looking very natty in his blue suit. This is the global list on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Donald Trump has announced plans to raise a temporary tariff on imports from all countries to 15%. The move follows a Supreme Court ruling that overturned much of his earlier trade regime and is expected to face fresh legal challenges. Hong Kong's Court of Appeal. The appeal has dismissed appeals from pro democracy activists jailed under the National Security Law. Most of those convicted in the Hong Kong 47 case are serving sentences of up to 10 years. And tomorrow marks four years since Russia launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine. On the eve of the anniversary, Pope Leo called for an end to the war as Russia carried out new missile and drone strikes. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It's 8:29 in Berlin. 7:29 here in London. Germany's conservatives have been taking stock in Stuttgart. The CDU party conference is the first big gathering since Friedrich Nertz became Chancellor. With the party under pressure to show momentum, unity and a plan. It's also seen the surprise return of Angela Merkel back on the conference floor for the first time since leaving office. Well, I'm joined now by SUDA David Wilp, who is Vice President of External Relations and senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund's Berlin office. Suda, always lovely to have you with us. What were the main takeaways from the CDU conference in Stuttgart?
- [30:01]
Suda David Wilp
Good morning, Georgina. I, I think you put the word unity is the correct description. I think the CDU Party congress was a family affair. I think the delegates there wanted to show that they were supporting Chancellor Merritz, even though the grand coalition is not necessarily scoring well in the polls. INSA just came out with a survey that said that the previous ministers in the traffic light Government. Government are actually rated better than the ministers in this government, which is really a feat because the last government was so unpopular. But I think within the mainstream there is a desire for this government to hold it together because of all the geopolitical pressures that Germany is facing. You know, you have the fourth year of war against Ukraine, the changed US role in Europe, the so called China shock. With China, cheap goods flooding into Europe and also, of course, as you mentioned, domestic pressure from the far right, the AfD party.
- [31:02]
Georgina Godwin
Were there any policy priorities that stood out in the discussions and speeches?
- [31:07]
Suda David Wilp
Well, I think there is, of course a recognition on the part of Chancellor Mertz that domestically he hasn't delivered everything that he wanted to accomplish. He actually called for a autumn of reform which has not materialized because there is a need to kick start the German economy, which has been sluggish. Only about 0.2% growth last year and also less than 1% projected for this year. And there is a need for reform of the German social welfare state and of course also dealing with a new economic environment where trade is used as a industrial policy and it's not an open trading system in the world. And so I think that he recognizes that he needs to change things around domestically. But of course, there is the grand coalition with the spd, the center left party. So I do believe that the German CDU delegates also realize that he is also hampered by his coalition partner.
- [32:19]
Georgina Godwin
And how secure is his own position within the CDU right now?
- [32:24]
Suda David Wilp
Well, with a 91% approval that he can continue as party leader, I would say that that is a strong showing. And as I mentioned before, even though he is not really the most popular figure, not just now, but over decades, even Angela Merkel cut him down to size when he tried to become chancellor two decades ago. There's a realization that Germany has to succeed. Germany has to step up as leader for Europe. So I think that the different factions of the CDU are putting their squabbles aside to stand firm against behind Chancellor Merz.
- [33:10]
Georgina Godwin
So there are state elections coming up. How's the party performing beyond its own base?
- [33:17]
Suda David Wilp
Well, as I mentioned before, the far right party, the alternative for Germany is very close to the CDU when it comes to polling. And in some of those states where elections are scheduled, like in Saxony Anhalt, they're even way ahead of the CDU in the polls. So that is definitely a interesting twist because Chancellor Mertz, when he was vying to become party leader and chancellor, he said that he would cut the AFD support by half if he became party leader. And that hasn't necessarily worked. He's also tried to move the party to the right, to the, you know, not to necessarily the favor of Merkel and her acolytes within the party. But now he's realizing that the CDU needs to govern from the center. So this is the new sort of, you know, the trajectory of the cdu. And we will see if Chancellor Mertz is able to steer Germany and steer Europe in a very volatile situation when it comes to both security and prosperity for the country and for Europe.
- [34:31]
Georgina Godwin
Let's talk about Merkel because she made a rare return to the conference. How was she received in the hall?
- [34:38]
Suda David Wilp
Well, she received resounding applause. And you're right, she has not been present on the political scene. I think she's been trying to sort of give merits a chance to rule, but at the same time, she has sort of stuck her head out at certain times when it comes to, for example, there was his sort of move to the right when it comes to migration. I think Merkel has been on the defensive there. But again, I think she came also because even though she's not a merits booster, she wanted to also signal unity from her wing of the party because it is such a precarious moment for Germany and for Europe.
- [35:21]
Georgina Godwin
And I wonder, I mean, you say that, that it's unity that she wants to signal, but is that apparent within the mood and the state of the CDU today? What does her presence say about that?
- [35:34]
Suda David Wilp
I think her presence says that this is again, a very, it's a sort of a do or die moment for Germany and for Europe. The country needs to make, you know, make use of the investment it is sort of of taken on for defense and make sure that Europe can also find its geopolitical place when the Europe, when the United States is diminishing its role in Europe, also when the United States is the US Government under Donald Trump is promoting right wing parties all across Europe. So I think Merkel wants to show that the party needs to be unified. And I know that she's again, she's not necessarily a big fan of merits and she was the one to kind of kick him out, not kick him out of the party, but, you know, put him in his place. And he left the party at one point to work in the private sector. But I do think it's definitely a signal that she wants unity and she's willing to put her support behind the CDU and wants to make sure that credits a success.
- [36:43]
Georgina Godwin
Suda, thank you. That's suda. David Wilp from the German Marshall Fund. And this is Monocle Radio. Violence has flared across parts of Mexico after the killing of a drug cartel boss known as El Mencho in a military operation last night. Gunmen linked to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel blocked highways, torched vehicles and businesses and forced flight cancellations. Authorities say there are no civilian casualties, but the retaliation has raised Fears of further instability. Adam Hancock is a journalist who reports for NPR Al Jazeera and is a regular voice here on Monocle Radio. He joins us now from Mexico City. Adam, who was El Mencho and why does his death matter?
- [37:35]
Adam Hancock
Well, he was Mexico's most wanted man and he was a feared drug lord leading an immensely powerful cartel. He's been on the radar of authorities both here in Mexico and in the United States for a long time. He was actually spent a period of time in jail in the US in the 1990s for drug related offenses. But he came back to Mexico after that and he was directly involved, involved in cartel activities and he built up one of the most powerful cartels in the country. He very much spread the cartel out from Jalisco State, which is where it started. It's got a network right across the country. It became so powerful because it wasn't involved just or isn't involved just in, in drug related activities, but also it's branched out into things like money laundering and human trafficking as well. And his death really is so significant because he, he was after El Chapo, effectively the biggest name in drug cartels. People here in Mexico are aware of him. He has this nickname, El Mencho. He's not quite as famous as El Chapo in terms of he kept a very low profile in comparison. But he certainly people are aware of him and his death obviously is also registering in, registering even in the United States where there's been a lot of pressure put on Mexico from Donald Trump to ensure that there's a crackdown on drug cartels. And what better way to go around than taking out one of the biggest names in, in the whole cartel industry in, in Mexico.
- [39:01]
Georgina Godwin
And do we know if the US Was directly involved in the operation?
- [39:06]
Adam Hancock
So we know that the US Provided intelligence for this operation that was confirmed both by the Mexican Embassy in Washington and also the, the U S Press secretary for President Trump. We don't know exactly what levels of intelligence they're that is, but Reuters news agency has been reporting that a new military unit focused on cartels and gathering intelligence and cartels was actually directly involved in this. But in terms of the actual operation today to try and capture El Mencho, that was Mexican Special Forces and the Mexican armed forces as well. They were attempting to capture him, arrest him and bring him in for questioning. But there appears to have been some kind of gunfight between members of the cartel and the authorities. And El Mencho was injured in that gunfight. And then subsequently traveling here to Mexico City on a Plane. He actually died from his injuries.
- [39:56]
Georgina Godwin
So tell us about the retaliation. How did that begin and what happened and where has it spread to?
- [40:02]
Adam Hancock
Yeah, it spread a alarming pace, to be honest. It started in Jalisco, the state where all of this drama took place today. And we had a lot of videos coming out from a place called Puerto Vallarta, which is a popular tourist region resort in the state. Plumes of smoke coming up from the city. There were reports people hearing gunfire, vehicles being set alight and roads being blockaded as well. And slowly this spread. There were. There were videos and more information coming out from different states. The US Embassy in Mexico, they then put out a warning to U. S. Citizens here saying that they need to shelter in place. In a number of states, a number of tourists have been told to stay in their resort ports, stay in their hotels. And we even got some really alarming footage from Guadalajara airport of people just running through the airport, panicking. We don't actually think that anything happened. It may have just been misinformation or, you know, somebody shouting something that they saw which was incorrect, but it was quite alarming. And you have to consider that the world cup is actually going to be taking place here in Mexico in a few months, and Guadalajara is one of the host venues. So it's been a very ugly day for Mexico in terms of this violence which has spread across the country right from the north down to the coast in the west. So, yeah, it's been incredible, really, how it did spread throughout the day.
- [41:16]
Georgina Godwin
So president Claudia Sheinbaum has urged calm. What is the mood and the situation there now?
- [41:23]
Adam Hancock
I think there's still an element of fear. I think people are concerned about how much violence we're going to see in the coming days, whether or not this will now quiet and quieten down. We know that a lot of the rogue roadblocks, for example, have now, the military have managed to regain control of those roadblocks. I think the general mood, though, is. Is just caution and concern over how the cartels will react if they will continue to seek retribution for the killing of El Mencho here in Mexico City, the capital. There hasn't really been any. Any incidents of. No, there's been an increased police presence and a lot of military out on the streets. But speaking to people here, they did say. Say that this is the first time in quite a while that there's been this kind of nervous situation about national security in the country. And I know, for example, a number of schools are closed tomorrow in. In various states where there has been violence. So I think people are cautious, they're on edge and they're watching it closely. But obviously cartel violence is a part of life here in Mexico and Mexicans are very used to it, so they're also quite pragmatic as well.
- [42:23]
Georgina Godwin
Adam Hancock on the line from Mexico City. Thank you very much for joining. Joining us, this is the Globalist on Monocle Radio,
- [42:34]
UBS Narrator
Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of the leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. Ubs banking is our craft.
- [43:10]
Georgina Godwin
Now, let's zero in on the area of tech policy. I'm joined in the studio by the UK Tech editor at Politico, Isabel Hamilton. Welcome to you, Isabelle. Thank you so much for coming in. Pleasure. So, really we're looking at all these fights about tech and chief amongst us is the us, who are just very, very, well, very hawkish on it all. So Reuters has reported that the US is going to make a website for people living outside the US to bypass local content bans. What does that actually mean?
- [43:43]
Isabel Hamilton
Well, we don't know exactly what it's going to look like yet, but there is a website live, it's called freedom.gov and if you go onto it, there's a little sort of animation of what looks like Paul Revere and it says freedom is coming. And it's got a little tagline about censorship. So Reuters reported that there might be a VPN element to this. So that would mean that if you're in, for example, the eu, which has got laws governing things like how tech companies should police their platforms, that if you are accessing this website from there, perhaps the US government is going to build it so that, that when you access that website, it's going to look like you're accessing it from the us, where there are no such laws. Now, bit of background to this is that the EU has a couple of really big overarching laws around how digital services need to act. And the US has a big problem with them. Trump administration has a big problem with them. They say it's unfair to US companies because the vast majority of big tech companies are American. And the EU has stayed pretty firm and said, no, these are our laws. You can't come and tell us how to police this stuff on our own turf. But the Americans say, well, you're being extrajudicial These are our companies, and you're telling them what to do. So this is really big fight that's been brewing, and you gotta put that fight in the even broader context of how the Trump administration interacts with its allies. And following this weekend, things are pretty testy already.
- [45:09]
Georgina Godwin
And also how much influence Silicon Valley has over the Trump administration. Right.
- [45:14]
Isabel Hamilton
Well, yeah, this is a sort of new dynamic with this particular second Trump administration. The Silicon Valley CEOs, you know, all the tech moguls, they were all at the administration. There's sort of ongoing reporting about the degree to which they are remaining close to him.
- [45:30]
William Yang
Right.
- [45:31]
Isabel Hamilton
Like on a personal level as well as on a lobbying level. So there's, you know, a sort of, sort of kindred spirit feeling there, perhaps. Although I would sort of nuance that by saying even though they're obviously, like, plugging immense amounts of political capital into trying to stay close to Trump, it's not always working on home turf. I think there was some reporting a while back that Meta was trying to get Trump to get some of the regulatory scrutiny there off their shoulders, and he didn't do it. So there's a sort of cognitive dissonance there where they're both. Both besties. And also at the same time, Trump has his own kind of thoughts about how he wants to, like, show them who's the boss back on home turf, but certainly abroad. The Trump administration doesn't want other governments or telling tech companies that are American what to do.
- [46:18]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. I mean, I wonder why there's a need for a whole special website when if Americans really want to access that content, they just use a vpn.
- [46:24]
Isabel Hamilton
Well, it's not Americans that are the issue. Like, the whole point is that it's actually people living outside America, majority of which won't be Americans, that could be able to use this. It's a really strange sort of element of foreign policy from America that they're sort of encouraging Europeans or Brits or whoever it is, to circumvent their local laws.
- [46:44]
Georgina Godwin
Let's talk about Thierry Breton now. Tell us who he is, what his former job was, and what the problem is.
- [46:50]
Isabel Hamilton
So Thierry Breton was a commissioner with the eu and he was a tech chief, and he was. Was a big part of setting up these laws that I was talking about before. One of them is called the Digital Services Act. And he was pretty tough on big tech. And he's not actually a commissioner anymore, but he's like a really sort of big character in this story. And around Christmas time, the Trump administration placed sanctions on him. He's not allowed to set foot on U.S. soil. You know, they're that sort of head up about this. And Emmanuel Macron, who's the French president. Breton is French himself. Macron wrote a letter to Trump, I think, over the weekend, saying, lift the sanctions on Breton, which I think is quite a, you know, strong signal that Macron is willing to get into fights over this particular issue.
- [47:35]
Georgina Godwin
Why does he care about Breton?
- [47:38]
Isabel Hamilton
Well, Macron has been making lots of noises about Big Tech recently himself, he came out in favor of a social media ban for teens. I forget exactly which age he's going for, but. But he's one of that sort of roster of countries that's now making a bit of noise about it. He's quite pro, and he went to the India AI Summit recently, and he also came out with some quite colorful language about the tech companies. I think Macron has decided that really this is a platform he wants to, you know, stake his flag in, you know, standing up to Big Tech. And I think that getting Breton, getting the sanctions lifted on him is part of that for Macron.
- [48:16]
Georgina Godwin
Let's just look at this ban, because it's a whole club of countries looking to ban social media for kids under 15. It includes India, Greece, Spain, and now, of course, France, too. And I just wonder about bringing this in for kids who are already using social media. I mean, I can see, you know, for kids that perhaps are not yet, you know, on smartphones, but if you're already using it, can you take it away from. From them?
- [48:40]
Isabel Hamilton
It's a great question. And Australia, I think, is finding out, because Australia was the very first country to put this into law. And we've seen lots of reporting coming out of Australia that the kids there are just finding workarounds. And, you know, these countries are talking about introducing a band themselves. I mean, France, Macron and France are sort of pushing it ahead, as far as I can make out. Others are sort of just talking about it and haven't fully committed to it yet. And I think a lot of them are going to be watching Australia and seeing what comes out in terms of how effective it is and also sort of what voters make of it, you know, six months, 12 months on, because it was seen as quite a popular policy. But if it's seen as, oh, actually it hasn't worked, maybe it won't be that popular after all.
- [49:28]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. Finally, let's have a look at European efforts to cut online hate speech.
- [49:33]
Isabel Hamilton
So that's less to do with hate speech, that's more to do with. So the Digital Services act that I was talking about earlier has some transparency requirements and the fine that was levied against Twitter a little while ago was, I should say X, sorry, was to do with failures and transparency disclosures as well as specifically the blue check mark that you can get on Twitter. The EU decided that this was deceptive design and so levied this fine. And Twitter X is now appealing this fine. And this plays into the broader mosaic we were talking about earlier with the EU versus the US and the EU enforcing its laws and US companies trying to fight back.
- [50:14]
Georgina Godwin
Yeah, because Marco Rubio's described sort of the targets of newly announced sanctions as radical activists who've worked to coerce American platforms to censor, demonetize and suppress American viewpoints. I mean, this is quite strong language, isn't it?
- [50:30]
Isabel Hamilton
Oh, typical of the Trump administration. Incredibly strong language and not entirely representative of what these laws do, I've got to say. But yeah, this is definitely the kind of fight they're framing themselves up for.
- [50:43]
Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. Isabel, thank you very much indeed. That's Isabel Hamilton there. And this is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. You. Now, for the last couple of weeks, some of us have been quietly beavering away in rainy London, anchoring for a. In a tasteful and well appointed studio, but nevertheless one with no windows in the UK's inclement capital. Whilst others, and I say this with no trace of bitterness whatsoever, have been broadcasting from the top of the alley. Alliance Tower, the tallest building in Milan with spectacular views over the city during an enormously exciting sporting event. Andrew Muller, I am not jealous of you covering the Winter Olympics at all. Do you understand? Not one little bit.
- [51:55]
Andrew Muller
No, that's. That, that's, that's good to hear. Georgina, if it's any consolation at all, the whole 47 floors up with my back to the window thing was a bit wasted on me. I'm not a huge fan of heights, so I, I spent most of this week shows just trying desperately not to turn around.
- [52:11]
Georgina Godwin
Oh, that's hilarious. So wasted on you. Completely wasted on you.
- [52:17]
Andrew Muller
That aspect of it was Milan in general. Definitely has not been though. I was here for the second of our two weeks broadcasting from the top of Alliance Tower and it has been really, really interesting. It's funny speaking to a lot of Milanese people, I'm reminded of the convers I had Parisians before their games before Londoners before, with Londoners before their games and with Sydney sliders before their games in that everybody was absolutely convinced it was going to be shambles before it started and was going, oh, this is great.
- [52:56]
Georgina Godwin
But in fact they've all turned out pretty well, haven't they?
- [53:00]
Andrew Muller
Yeah, it does seem to be the recurring pattern with Olympic Games. An extraordinary amount of. Amount of doom munging does tend to creep in during the preparations, probably because I guess there is a lot of disruption in order to get it all to happen. But when everybody buys into almost invariably works out really well. Most people I've spoken to here think this has been a terrific advertisement for the city and for the region.
- [53:24]
Georgina Godwin
So what were your personal highlights and big takeaways from the Games?
- [53:30]
Andrew Muller
Well, it's both a highlight and a low light. Confined as we were to Milan, we didn't actually get too many Olympic events, events most of which were happening on the slopes of Cortina. But one definite highlight was we did get tickets to the men's ice hockey between the Czech Republic and Denmark at the somewhat controversial new arena on the outskirts of Milan last Tuesday. Somewhat controversial in that this was the focus for a lot of the disgruntlement people saying it isn't even finished, everybody's going to point and laugh, etc. Granted it did does still need a few coats of paint on the stairwells, etc. But yeah, it worked absolutely fine. It's a spectacular venue and when it all, when it is all finished, I think it will be a fine addition to the city for me. Also last night at the a closing ceremony event held by alliance, our sponsors in that lofty irie, I did get to compare an event with two actual Olympians, Giuliana Giuliano Razzoli and Alexandra Burkhardt. Giuliano Razzoli won a gold medal in the alpine skiing in 1998. Alexandra Burkhardt is a German sprinter and bobsledder. She's one of seven people who've won medals at both kinds of Olympics. And both of them were. They were interesting in the way that people who've excelled at that level always are. But what was, I thought, really interesting was the way that the guests reacted to their medals because they did bring their collection collections on people. They have an extraordinary power, an actual real, live Olympic medal. And what I did notice was that nobody had the nerve to actually put one on people, touch them and hold them and post photos with them. But everybody understands only one kind of people gets to wear them.
- [55:17]
Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. Now, Andrew, of course there was a huge, spectacular closing ceremony. Did you see much of that?
- [55:24]
Andrew Muller
I saw some of it on the big screens and I thought it was fantastic. This was of course done at the, the ancient arena in Verona. The sort of equidistant from most of the venues. And I, I just really like this thing that does now seem to have become conventional wisdom that an Olympic opening and closing ceremony, especially the closing ceremony just should be the absolute maddest version of the host country in absolute unrest trained excelsis. I thought it was fabulous. I thought the, we had the sort of, the music from Joan Teal, we had Roberto Bolle the dancer. The usual crowds of somewhat bewildered and frankly somewhat hungover looking athletes shambling around. Yeah, I thought it was terrific. I like this idea that every, every country now just seems to think it's an Olympic closing ceremony. Let's go nuts.
- [56:12]
Georgina Godwin
Angie, is this, was this a good soft power moment for Brand Miller?
- [56:17]
Andrew Muller
Yeah, I think so. In, in today's monocle minute, Tom Webb, producer who was here for, for the whole stint does come to more or less that conclusion. He does also start by noting at the the risk of spoilers that yeah, there was a lot of trepidation and even resentment of the games before they happened. But yeah, it, it, I mean Milan always seems to be on the global stage. I mean no sooner have the Olympics finished than it's gearing up for Fashion Week Design Week in April. One of our guests said this. Well during our shows it's way something weak in Milan. I, I would say that in my own view it could still do as a city with a bit of smartening up. I mean to spend any amount of time in Milan is to have any views you might have on the necessity of horse whipping, urban graffiti artists thoroughly reinforced. But yeah, I think not like this part of Italy really needs much advertising because it's all pretty much marvellous. But yeah, I think it's been terrific and I think anytime any city puts on something like this and it works, it does give people a fresh sense of what's possible.
- [57:29]
Georgina Godwin
Andrew, just before we go, you've got literally 20 seconds to tell me what it was like holding the Olympic torch.
- [57:37]
Andrew Muller
Oh yeah, really cool.
- [57:39]
Sanam Vakil
Again.
- [57:39]
Andrew Muller
I felt a bit abashed. I, I tried to be, I tried to remember who I was. I didn't hold it up in the air and run around the room with it. So. But yeah, it's still, it is amazing what talismanic power these, these objects do have.
- [57:54]
Georgina Godwin
Andrew Muller in Milan. Thank you very much indeed. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers Carlotta Rebello and Laura Craig, our researcher Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager Lily Austin, with editing assistance by Steph Chungu. More music on the way. The briefing is live at midday in London. The Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening.
- [58:31]
UBS Narrator
With ubs, you have a true, truly global partner. Incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.