The Globalist — “The Countdown is On as Trump Ups Pressure on Iran”
Monocle Radio | February 23, 2026
Host: Georgina Godwin
Episode Overview
This episode of The Globalist offers comprehensive coverage of major current affairs, focusing primarily on:
- Escalating US-Iran tensions and the nuclear negotiation deadline
- A constitutional crisis in Taiwan and its defense implications
- Trump’s global tariff policy and Supreme Court defeat
- German CDU party conference and Angela Merkel’s return
- Violence in Mexico following the cartel leader El Mencho’s death
- Evolving tech policy—US vs EU disputes and bans on social media for children
- Highlights and soft power impacts of the Milan Winter Olympics
The tone throughout is analytical, urgent, and global, as the hosts and guests dissect immediate international political, security, and economic stories.
1. US-Iran Tensions: Countdown to a Deal or War
Guest: Sanam Vakil (Director, Middle East and North Africa Program, Chatham House)
Segment Start: [03:44]
Key Discussion Points
- Massive US Military Build-Up: Unprecedented since the 2003 Iraq war
- “The United States has assembled what Donald Trump calls an armada.” (Sanam Vakil, 03:44)
- Negotiation Hopes & Uncertainty: 3rd round set for Geneva; Iran insists on right to uranium enrichment under NPT
- “We don't know if the US wants zero enrichment inside Iran. The Iranians have long held onto their right ... to enrich uranium for, quote, unquote, peaceful purposes.” (Sanam Vakil, 04:15)
- Ballistic Missiles and Regional Actors: Discussion includes Iran’s missile program and possibility of proxy group participation
- Many such groups have been weakened since October 7th and the Israel-Gaza conflict.
- Middle East Regional Anxiety: Gulf states plead for diplomacy, fearing catastrophic escalation
US/UK Military Posture
- US has two aircraft carriers and F-15s deployed in the Mediterranean and Arabian Sea
- Capabilities positioned for both offense and defense in the event of Iranian retaliation
Allied (UK) Reluctance
- Britain blocks US use of major airbases; signals desire to avoid entanglement
- “This is much more a signal from the UK that they're not party to this war ... perhaps prefer the diplomatic route.” (Sanam Vakil, 07:10)
Iranian Posture and Regional Risks
- Ongoing naval drills with Russia as power projection; repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz
- Likely scenarios: energy supply disruption and global price spikes as leverage
Domestic Unrest in Iran
- Universities reopened with renewed student protests amid government repression memories
- “There were protests ... from the end of December to January. And those protests resulted in about 7,000 deaths of protesters.” (Sanam Vakil, 09:39)
Crunch Deadlines
- Next Geneva talks (Thursday) framed as a “fork in the road”; diplomatic window described as “10 to 15 days”
- “One way or another, we have to see if there is a deal to be struck.” (Sanam Vakil, 10:35)
- US recognizes the risks: “A war with Iran ... might not produce the quick, easy ... outcome that Donald Trump is used to.” (Sanam Vakil, 10:55)
2. Taiwan’s Constitutional Crisis and Security Impact
Guest: William Yang (Senior Northeast Asia Analyst, International Crisis Group)
Segment Start: [12:04]
Key Discussion Points
- Parliamentary Gridlock: President’s party lacks majority; opposition uses leverage to block executive functions and 2026 budget
- Defense Budgets Frozen: Both annual and special defense budgets (totaling >$40bn) stuck—undermining preparedness as China ramps up aggression
- “Taiwan's ability and also willingness to actually defend itself has been put into question because of the domestic gridlock.” (William Yang, 13:24)
- Beijing’s Leverage: China amplifies local division; blames increased defense spending for cross-strait tension, drives wedge between civil society and parties
- “Beijing welcomes ... this situation where the domestic politics is really affecting the operation of the government in Taipei.” (William Yang, 15:31)
- Divisions Run Deep: Competing visions on aligning with the US vs. engaging Beijing; no clear path out of the impasse
3. Around the World in Headlines
Segment Start: [19:04]
Trump’s Tariff Policy Defeat
Co-host: Charles Hecker (Russia analyst, author)
- Supreme Court overturns Trump’s earlier trade policy; Trump announces a temporary 15% global import tariff
- Japan’s Dilemma: Special tariff deals thrown out, risking future US investment
- “Why would Japan continue to invest in the United States when now it's paying more tariffs?” (Charles Hecker, 21:31)
- Business Impact: Expectation of inflation, supply chain uncertainty, and possible trade retaliation
- “The source of the pushback … is coming from the Supreme Court. And that is exactly what triggers the tantrum from Trump.” (Charles Hecker, 23:54)
Media Power Struggles
- Hollywood studio mergers (Netflix vs Paramount for Warner Brothers)
- Trump pressures Netflix to remove Susan Rice from its board, preferring Trump-aligned Paramount to triumph
Urban Notes
- Paris’ Tour Montparnasse gets much-awaited makeover; city welcomes move, but must address unexpected pigeon squatters
4. German CDU: A Family Affair and Merkel’s Return
Guest: Suda David Wilp (Vice President, German Marshall Fund, Berlin)
Segment Start: [30:00]
Key Takeaways
- Unity Theme: CDU seeks to show support for Chancellor Merz amid low poll ratings and rising AfD strength
- “The delegates there wanted to show that they were supporting Chancellor Merz ... because of all the geopolitical pressures that Germany is facing.” (Suda David Wilp, 30:00)
- Policy Priorities: Need for economic reform, sluggish growth, and adapting to global trade shifts
- Merkel’s Return: Strong applause signals unity; her presence underscores “do or die moment” for Germany/Europe with US foreign policy uncertainty
5. Mexico: Cartel Boss Killed, Security in Flux
Guest: Adam Hancock (Journalist, NPR/Al Jazeera)
Segment Start: [37:34]
Key Stories
- El Mencho Killed: Top drug lord removed by Mexican special forces; US provided intelligence
- Immediate Cartel Retaliation: Road blockades, arson, gunfire—panic in major cities, including tourist hotspots and airport chaos
- International Fallout: US embassy warns citizens to shelter; implications for Mexico’s security image ahead of World Cup
- Cautious Calm: Public is fearful but pragmatic; military regains most control, schools closed in violence-affected states
6. Tech Policy Wars: US, EU, and the Battle for Digital Sovereignty
Guest: Isabel Hamilton (UK Tech Editor, Politico)
Segment Start: [43:09]
Key Discussion Points
- US Launches ‘Freedom.gov’: Aimed at helping users outside the US bypass local content bans (possibly via VPN), seen as a direct challenge to EU laws
- “It's a really strange sort of element of foreign policy from America that they're … encouraging Europeans ... to circumvent their local laws.” (Isabel Hamilton, 46:24)
- Silicon Valley’s Influence: Complex personal and lobbying ties to Trump, but even industry giants face uncertainty at home
- Conflict with EU Figures: US sanctions on former EU commissioner Thierry Breton (tech policy architect); Macron demands sanctions lifted
- Child Social Media Bans: France, India, Greece, Spain push for under-15 ban; Australia as pioneer, but kids find workaround
- EU Fines on Twitter/X: Penalties for non-compliance with transparency laws, part of ongoing US-EU regulatory discord
- Rhetoric and Risks: Marco Rubio and Trump team brand EU enforcers as “radical activists”—contributes to an escalating tech sovereignty battle
7. Milan Winter Olympics: A Winning Soft Power Play
Guest/Correspondent: Andrew Muller (Monocle)
Segment Start: [51:55]
Highlights & Takeaways
- Pre-Games Dread Turns to Civic Pride: Pattern of skepticism in host cities, but “everybody … was going, oh, this is great.”
- “Most people I've spoken to here think this has been a terrific advertisement for the city and for the region.” (Andrew Muller, 52:11)
- Venue Woes Overcome: New ice hockey arena “spectacular” despite pre-Games concern about delays
- Olympic Medals’ Magnetism: Muller notes power of being near “an actual, real, live Olympic medal”
- Closing Ceremony: Unrestrained, “maddest version of the host country”; dazzling and joyous soft power showcase
- “Every country now just seems to think ... It's an Olympic closing ceremony. Let's go nuts.” (Andrew Muller, 55:24)
- Brand Milan: Olympics are just one event in the city’s ceaseless cultural calendar; reinforces Milan’s global profile
Notable Quotes
- “We are really at a fork in the road moment.” (Sanam Vakil, 03:44)
- “This is much more a signal from the UK that they're not party to this war.” (Sanam Vakil, 07:10)
- “Taiwan's ability and willingness to actually defend itself has been put into question because of the domestic gridlock.” (William Yang, 13:24)
- “The interesting thing is the source of the pushback, Georgina, and that is ... the Supreme Court.” (Charles Hecker, 23:54)
- “Merkel wants to show that the party needs to be unified ... she wants unity and she's willing to put her support behind the CDU.” (Suda David Wilp, 35:33)
- “His death really is so significant because he, he was after El Chapo, effectively the biggest name in drug cartels.” (Adam Hancock, 37:34)
- “It's a really strange sort of element of foreign policy ... encouraging Europeans ... to circumvent their local laws.” (Isabel Hamilton, 46:24)
- “Most people I've spoken to here think this has been a terrific advertisement for the city and for the region.” (Andrew Muller, 52:11)
Timestamps: Key Segments
- 03:44 — US-Iran standoff and the military build-up
- 12:04 — Taiwan’s constitutional/defense crisis
- 19:04 — Newspaper headlines: US tariffs, Mar-a-Lago attack, Japan’s economic concerns
- 30:00 — German CDU conference and Merkel’s return
- 37:34 — Mexico: El Mencho killed, violent cartel backlash
- 43:09 — Tech policy: US vs EU (Freedom.gov, child bans, sanctions)
- 51:55 — Milan Olympics review & closing ceremony
Closing Thoughts
This episode vividly encapsulates a world on edge—marked by potential war, political gridlock, climate of trade and tech conflict, populist pressures, and global spectacles. The Globalist team brings clarity and measured urgency to a week loaded with pivotal moments.
Listeners feel both the intensity of the geopolitical “countdown” and the hopeful notes of unity, adaptation, and cultural connection.