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Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 27 November 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
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Hello.
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This is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, we are ready.
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For negotiation, but not for dictation.
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We are ready to go for a deal, but for a fair and balanced.
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Deal, not a one sided deal.
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Iran's foreign minister has been having talks in France. We'll look at the latest lines as prisoner diplomacy and nuclear proliferation dominate the agenda. Pope Leo is off on his first foreign trip as pontiff. What does his focus on Lebanon and Turkey tell us about what we can expect from his papacy? We'll look through the papers and hear how Gabrielle Chanel is bringing mainland China its first library focused on contemporary art.
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And then the only way we'll ever get to that proverbial Europe, whole, free and at peace, is with a democratic Russia. Next time, we have to get it right and it means that we have to be getting ready for that moment now.
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We'll hear from recently released Russian opposition leader Vladimir Kara Mirza. We'll cross to Taipei to hear about increased defense spending to counter China's aggression. And we'll have a roundup of stories from the Middle east and North Africa. And finally, Happy Thanksgiving. As friends and families gather round tables for the traditional annual feast today, we'll get some tips on how to cater for an international crowd. That's all ahead here on the Globalist, live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. A deadly fire at Hong Kong's Wang Phu court has killed 44, left almost 300 missing and led to manslaughter arrests over unsafe scaffolding and materials used during renovation. Moscow says it won't offer big concessions on a Ukraine peace plan, as leaked audio shows the envoy Steve Witkoff coaching Russian officials ahead of his visit to meet Putin. And Myanmar's military says 8,665 people will be pardoned or cleared ahead of disputed elections, including thousands prosecuted under the junta's broad fake news law. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day. For more on those Stories now. The E3 Britain, France and Germany triggered the snapback of UN sanctions against Iran on 28 August, restoring UN sanctions at the end of September. Then last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog, passed a resolution demanding a full account of Iran's possible weapons grade uranium stockpile and access to nuclear sites hit in the strikes by the US And Israel in June. While Tehran's rejected that resolution, scrapped its September cooperation deal with the agency and is still keeping inspectors out of the bomb facilities, the IAEA says it's lost continuity of knowledge over parts of the 60% stockpile. And yesterday Iran's foreign minister was in Paris where the nuclear standoff is now tangled up with prisoner diplomacy. Two French nationals released from Evan prison are still stuck at the French embassy in Tehran while Iran wants progress on the case of an Iranian detainee in France. So is terror are now negotiating from a position of strength or under growing strain? I'm joined by Tara Kangalu, who is a journalist for NBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, as well as the author of the Heartbeat of Iran. Tara, it's lovely to have you back on the show. Was there any progress at the talks in Paris yesterday?
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Thank you so much for having me. Georgina, good morning to you. The Paris talks yesterday come at a very important and sensitive time. What stood out to me is the fact because I covered this last week where Cecile Collin and Jacques Paris were released from prison and many thought that they will be returning to France, but they are kept. And my question is why? And the fact that Iran's foreign minister yesterday said that in the next two months we'll see them returning to France. And Iran is known to, you know, long known for imprisoning foreign nationals and dual nationals to use them as bargaining chips. And I do wonder if they are that bargaining chip at the moment that France seems to be the lead among the E3, UK, Germany and France to be the negotiating force between Iran and the United States. So that to me stood out. Another point that stood out was when Iran's Foreign Minister Arakchi told in an interview to France24 that Iran fully trust Saudi Arabia as a mediator. This is very interesting because for long Oman has been the sort of middle country between Iran and the US but now we see Saudi Arabia playing a role. And mind you, that Iran and Saudi Arabia's frosty relationship has recently warmed up and the two seem to be cooperating on not just regional issues, but in this case, international and perhaps the most important, important relationship or lack thereof, and that of diplomatic discussions between Iran and the United States. So these things stood out to me. But the bottom line is that there seems to be keen interest in wanting dialogue and negotiation. The nature of that, how that looks is yet to be seen. But I don't presume any direct talks between Iran and the US Is imminent. But then again, we've been surprised in the past and we are oftentimes surprised by the Trump administration. So we have to, we have to.
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See where then does the IAEA Iran relationship stand after that resolution?
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Last week you mentioned it in the lead. You know, back in September, Iran and the IAEA reached this framework, right, during their talks in Cairo. But then Iran said that's fully void because E3 in August triggered a snapback mechanism. So pretty much the harshest sanctions are all reimposed in Iran. Right. And the IAEA acts as a watchdog. They are there to monitor. And last week, Iraqi himself said that there needs to be new framework for IAEA's inspection. And I think that has long been one of the most concerning points for not just the IAEA, but also the US and E3. How much inspection can we have? They want full inspection to Iran's most sensitive sites. Iran says no. But taking that to a broader context, Georgina, I think again, the bottom line when it comes to these negotiations right now is that, you know, Iran is saying, yes, we're interested in negotiating, right? Whether directly or indirectly, US Is saying the same thing. But here's the big but the US Wants to negotiate over not just Iran's nuclear program and its zero enrichment and of course, access to these sensitive sites. They also want to negotiate over Iran's missile program. All right, but that's something that Iran said they don't want to do.
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I mean, it's very interesting that they are refusing on so many different levels. Why are they not allowing access to the damaged facilities?
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I think Iran wants to keep leverage and also Iran wants to maintain and project this image of control. Also, it's very interesting because if you listen to the talking points of Iranian officials on the international news sphere versus domestically, you see a stark contrast. So in some ways, Iran wants to project that we're still in power. We're, we're potentially, if we're negotiating anytime soon, we are negotiating from position of power. But that is not the case. Iran does not have much leverage. There are concerns domestically over a new round of strikes by Israel and the resumption of war so in some ways, Iran is desperate. Now the question about access to these sensitive facilities and sites is, you know, the sort of red line that Iran has always drawn. It's, it's of highest concern for Iran's national security. And if they give that up, they have, they have no cards, they have nothing else. So that has always been, that has always been the issue. But again, the IAEA has had access over the years that has been part of the JCPOA, the nuclear agreement that was reached in 2015. I was in Iran at the time, but of course, you know, when that deal went out the table, you know, IAEA's access was restricted. The last thing, Georgina, if I may say talking about this in a larger context, is that Iran's economy is crippled by sanctions, you know, mismanagement and corruption. And the regime, again, is not coming to this negotiation or presumed negotiation or engagement from any position of power or strength. The country is collapsing economically and the government cannot sustain its grip and power under these circumstances. So something has to give.
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And how much were the U. S. Israeli strikes in June responsible for this, given that they did dramatically shift regional and domestic dynamics?
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Of course, I think many were taken aback if we're talking its impact on day to day life in Iran. Of course it shook a nation that is frustrated with its own government, with the, with the Islamic regime, but also is frustrated with regional actors and what was happening in their backyard. But as far as the escalation of any potential engagement, I think, I think to an extent it shook the leadership in Iran that, you know, all bets are off, anything is possible. What stood out to me again in the recent sort of Trump output on any potential engagement and negotiation is his talk in the Knesset back in October when he was announcing the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and he kept talking about Iran. And that was a very public, momentous opportunity for Donald Trump. And he spent quite a considerable amount of time speaking, speaking about Iran and a potential deal with Iran and negotiating with Iran. So I think that's high on top of the Donald Trump agenda. Now, would he forgo another round of attacks by Israel on Iran? I don't know if that's needed for him to get to what he wants to get to, perhaps. But I do think right now the mood out of France seems to rebuild to be one that is pro engagement. We have Saudi Arabia involved, and so that's how I see it. What Israel would do next, again, that can also come as a surprise. So that is still a possibility.
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Tara, thank you very much indeed. That's Tara Kangarolu, who is a journalist for NBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, as well as the author of the Heartbeat of Iran. This is the Globalist. It's 12 minutes past 8 in Vatican City, 7:12 here in London. Now, Pope Leo XIV begins the first foreign trip of his papacy today. He'll spend six days in Lebanon and Beirut, where he plans to mark the 1,700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea with Orthodox leaders. He plans also to visit Istanbul's Blue Mosque and then hold an interfaith gathering at the site of the port blast in Beirut. But, of course, this visit takes place at a time of huge unrest in the region. Well, I'm joined now from our Zurich studio by Juliet Lindley, who's a journalist and former Vatican correspondent. Juliet, it's always lovely to speak to you. How are you today?
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I'm very well, Georgina, thank you.
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Can you give us some more details of the key stops and moments that we can expect to see on Pope Leo's odyssey?
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Yeah.
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Well, Leo lands today at 12:30 in Ankara. He's going to be flying aboard an ITA Airways flight, along with 80 journalists, more or less Vatican reporters. And it's a flight that's affectionately referred to by most of those reporters as Shepherd 1. So he lands in Ankara, he meets President Erdogan, then he flies in the evening to Istanbul. And this is a trip that he's making in honor of his predecessor, Pope Francis, who had had to forego it for health reasons. He passed away in April, and otherwise it would have been Francis there for this important anniversary, the 1700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea. It's an important date when meeting. It was a meeting of bishops in modern day Iznik in northwestern Turkey, and it marked a turning point in Christianity.
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So.
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So he will be going to Iznik tomorrow, and he will also be meeting the head of the Eastern Orthodox Church, Patriarch Bartholomew, which is so important. And there'll be a signing of a joint declaration on Saturday back in Istanbul. And then, of course, on Saturday, Leo visits the Blue Mosque in Istanbul.
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He's going to the Blue Mosque, but he's not actually going to another hugely significant building just across the street in Istanbul, the Hagia Sophia. Why is that? Why is it problematic?
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Yeah, that's a good question. Well, this is a cathedral, and it was once the world's largest church, and then it became a mosque, and then it was a museum, and then it returned to being a mosque again in 2020. And as you said, it and the Blue Mosque are opposite each other on Sultan Ahmed Square. But so far a visit is not on the cards. I mean, you never know. But it does appear that Leo is going to avoid this sort of, what would be very much seen as a controversial move, perhaps pandering to Erdogan, perhaps, which is the last thing Leo wants to do. It's a delicate matter. You know, this is what people would say is often referred to as the most imposing reminder of the Ottoman Turks, of Muslim Turks, conquest of Christian, Byzantine or Constantinople back in the 15th century.
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So in Lebanon, where he goes next, what are Christians hoping this visit will mean for them?
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Well, certainly they're hoping that they'll get uplifting messages from the Pope at a time in which Christians in the area in general feel under threat. And there is very much the hope that more Christians will therefore stay in Lebanon, that this will encourage them not to leave the country. Because ever since the civil war there's been a hemorrhaging of Christians. They used to be the majority in Lebanon, but now they only make up a third third of the population. So, you know, it's an important place, Lebanon, for the Vatican and for the Church. What's key here is the political system, Georgina, as we know that it's distinguished by its religion based power sharing arrangements. So the President is always going to be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister is always going to be a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of the House is always going to be a Shia Muslim. And then along with this troika, the parliament, nearly 130 seats are equally divided between Christians and Muslims. So it's very much a question of pluralism there in the country. And the Vatican pays great attention to that, of course.
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And we know that Pope Leo will be having to navigate a really delicate interfaith landscape. And I wonder what we should be watching, what his choice to go there tells us, the way he deals with it, and what the region and the international community should be alert for on this first international trip.
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Well, certainly it was Pope Francis who became the first Pope to visit very central positions in the Muslim world. And he visited Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula and it was the cradle of Islam. And he made that trip back in 2019, putting himself at great risk from a security perspective, but also sending out a very powerful message of outreach and course, of interfaith connection, if you want. So it can't be underestimated what is going to happen in this trip too. And you know, I mean, speaking of security, of course this is going to be a bit of a nightmare for the Vatican security services. They're certainly going to be on overdrive. They're going to be on high alerts. And the Vatican press office has said that at some point the Pope mobile will be used and that Leo should make an appearance in these open talks vehicles, but that that could change at any moment because of the security aspect of it. Georgina. So there's going to be a lot of eyes focused on this trip, not just from the Catholic or Christian world, but just in general, because this is, this is a moment when the world's spotlight is focused on Leo, on local political tensions, on how he navigates them, how he engages with religious and secular leaders. We're going to be seeing whether Leo emerges as, as, let's say, a new powerful global figure.
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Juliet, thank you very much indeed. That's Juliet Lindley live from our Zurich studio. And Juliet, very happy Thanksgiving to you and our radio colleagues there, Desi and Laura, now still to come on the program. Thanksgiving, which is celebrated today, has historical roots in harvest festivals and an earth colonial feast between English settlers and the Wampanoag people. Of course, the Brits ended up killing most of them. But if you're planning on celebrating Thanksgiving and instead would like to please your guests, do stay with us as we'll be giving you some international recipes to aid your feast. Wherever you are in the world, this is the globalist. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office, Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. Well, let's continue now with today's newspapers. And joining me in the studio is Latika Burke, who's looking wonderfully autumnal and warm. She's a writer at large for the Australian news publication, the Nightly. Welcome back.
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Good morning. You didn't add tired, which was very generous of you.
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I hadn't noticed. Latika, before we get onto the news, you've been making a bit of news yourself.
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Well, journalist never likes to be the story, but unfortunately, when you come face to face with Donald Trump quite often these days, the journalist does become the story. We've seen in the last few days. Him calling journalists ugly and piggy, I didn't get that sort of insult, but I did get told that I didn't know What I was talking about vis a vis Ukraine when I asked him why he was reluctant to enable Ukraine to win the war, as opposed to, of course, his pledge of. Of trying to end this conflict in a day. And. And then that's where it all took off. But it was, to be honest, I was not that offended at all. A lot of people have asked me if I was, and not at all, because we were in that press conference for about 40 minutes as. And as a foreign journalist, I can honestly say there is no foreign leader who has given foreign journalists that many opportunities to ask some questions. So I asked him a couple of questions and I was very pleased to be able to have that opportunity. And I think his answ was very revealing. It was very insightful. And the news that we'll talk about in a moment will go into exactly why he doesn't want to enable Ukraine to win the war and why he has not done so.
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Well, let's talk about that. Because this leak has come out. Steve Witkoff has been advising the Kremlin on how to get Trump's onside. I mean, this is extraordinary.
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Yeah, this is an amazing story. Now, the reason I've chosen a good article for you this morning on this, it's in the Guardian, and it comes a day or two after this sensational leak, Georgina, that Bloomberg published. And it was not just the transcript of Steve Witkoff talking to the chief Russian, Kirilly Kirill Dmitriev, about how to. Witkoff was essentially coaching the Russians on how to pull one past Trump, how to approach Trump, flatter him, tell him, this is what we want, this is what we could get for a peace deal. Now, what's really extraordinary is not just the contents of that call, because they do, of course, show that the United States is supposed to be an ally of Ukraine. But here we have the aggressor being coached on how to cosy up to Donald Trump and how to get the best possible deal for Russia from Donald Trump. But. But Sean Walker in the Guardian has gone through a big question. Everybody else is asking, where did this leak come from? Because there is speculation that it may have come from the Ukrainians, there's speculation that it may have come from the Russians in a 4D chess move. But most likely what this article argues is that there's very few who are capable of tapping a phone call like this. And the fact that Bloomberg said it had the raw audio as opposed to just a transcript is really interesting. This article speculates that the source of this is probably somebody deep within the intelligence community and so deep that they could have had access to the audio itself as opposed to seeing down the track or down the line a copy of that transcript. What's also really interesting and a lot of people won't have a Bloomberg subscription, so they won't know this, this detail. There's no byline on this story. There's no time of when it was published. All they say is Bloomberg has reviewed this audio and has reviewed the transcript and presumably that is to protect the source. Because once you did identify a journalist, even to the point whether it was in Washington, it would automatically then be assumed, okay, the deep state in America is leaking against the Trump administration. And that's really the crux of this article. What's the point of trying to speculate about this source other than general interest? Well, if it is US Intelligence, and this is all speculation, Georgina, but if it is, it is a bit of a fight back from the deep state against what they see as a Russian takeover of their government.
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It's so, so fascinating. I mean there are so many Trump stories. He's reportedly urged Japan's Prime Minister to avoid further escalations in a dispute with China. That's also from the Guardian. Tell us what's been going on with that.
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Yeah, so this is a Reuters story carried by the Guardian and lots of other papers. Also the Wall Street Journal first reported this as well, that the US President phoned the new Japanese prime minister, Prime Minister Takeuchi, and asked her to quote, dial down the volume in the dispute over Taiwan. Now this is really interesting. It's also concerning to a lot of Japan's allies and also I would think in the wider Indo Pacific. The background to this is that the Prime Minister of Japan essentially said that an attack on Taiwan would constitute a self defense clause in Japan. Keeping in mind Japan does not field a military, they can only fight in self defense. This is part of their post World War II pacifist constitution. Now. So she is asked about what happens in an event of Taiwan and she's making it clear Japan would fight in that scenario. China has come down, as it always does, like a ton of bricks on Japan. They have stopped flights. And then Xi Jinping and Donald Trump spoke on Monday. And interestingly, in the readouts of that call, the Chinese side put out that it was fairly new language. It's only been used once before that. I can see that Taiwan's return to China is part of the international world order post war. And interestingly, Donald Trump didn't make any mention of discussing Taiwan in his post. So this is all, of course, set against the fear that Trump may sell out Taiwan. And now we have this report that Trump did indeed then turn around to the Japanese, an ally of America's and supposedly a bull walking, trying to guard against Chinese hegemon in the region and dominance of the Pacific, and says, could you dial it down? It's not necessarily a leap to he's selling out Japan or Taiwan. Nobody wants conflict and unnecessary disputes with China where they don't have to have them. But it will certainly add to this sense that when there's a side of history to choose, unfortunately, the US President seems to be on the wrong side of it so many times.
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A very quick look before we go, Latika, on what's happening here in Britain, because the budget has come out, I certainly am going to be a lot poorer because of it. But another thing that links us back to our first story is that there was an extraordinary leak by the Office for Budget Responsibility who put out the entire contents of the budget before the Chancellor started.
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Well, in classic British fashion, if I may, Georgina, I think this one was less malicious and more just a stuff up. They released the entire budget hours before Chancellor Rachel Reeves got up to speak and she began her speech. It was, it was quite extraordinary excoriating this independent body for doing so. But yes, you're right, the crux of this budget is kicking the can down the road for what Britain seems incapable of facing, which is that its spending is out of control against its taxing. So taxes are going up. Instead of even doing some significant structural reform on tax, she has raised a myriad of taxes I didn't even know really existed. I mean, now taxes are going to be extended to lattes and various drinks as part of the extension of the sugar tax. They're going to freeze income threshold levels. They're going to charge EVs per mile. There's lots of, I would call it an assorted bundle of smaller taxes that are going to hit a lot of people who spend and this is all, of course, to pay for more welfare. They're going to take the cap off the benefits that the government or the states or people like you and me and everyone listening gives people who have children previously that was limited to two children. Now if you have more than two children, you'll get benefits for all of them. So there is a lot of critical press and this view is, I think, quite widespread across, across the GUARDI units, across the ft. And the article I've chosen is Steven Swinford's in the Times where he essentially says that this is a taxing budget that will start to kick in actually at the pain level when this government's trying to seek re election around 2028. So politically, even though it looks good to Labor MPs today, and keep in mind this is a chancellor and a prime minister very much under pressure from their own Labor MPs, this will actually have a lot of political costs for them down the line because by the time of the next election, people will be noticing their taxes are going up and up and up.
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Latika, thank you. Latika Burke there. You're with the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. A massive fire still burning through Hong Kong's Wang Fish court has killed 44 people, left nearly 300 missing and trapped residents on upper floors as firefighters battle heat and smoke. Police have arrested three construction company officials on suspicion of manslaughter amid concerns that foam sealant, plastic mesh and bamboo scaffolding fuelled the blaze. Russia has ruled out major concessions on a U S backed peace plan for Ukraine, even as a leaked call showed envoy Steve Witkoff advising Moscow on how to present its proposals to Donald Trump. Witkoff is due in Moscow next week for talks with Vladimir Putin, a trip Trump says is part of progress on ending the nearly four year war. And Myanmar's junta says it will pardon or drop charges against 8,665 people ahead of elections widely dismissed as a sham, including reduced sentences for more than 3,3000 convicted under the sweeping fake news law. Charges against a further 5,580 people on the run have also been scrapped, though it's unclear how many political detainees are covered. This is THE Globalist. Stay tuned. Now for a look behind the headlines. Here's Anita Riota on Chanel's new venture.
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It's been a historic year for the House of Chanel with the appointment of a new artistic director, Matthew Blazy, who has reimagined the look of the house during his debut show in September. But Chanel has been investing far beyond fashion, reinforcing its position in the cultural zeitgeist. The house started with an arts and culture print title, which launched this summer. The appointment of the first Chanel botanical curator at Switzerland's Fondation Belle. And now the opening of the Espace Gabrielle Chanel in Shanghai. Located on the fifth floor of the city's Power Station of Art Museum. The library will will offer access to more than 50,000 books and a 300 seat public theater. The opening is part of the Chanel Culture Fund, initiated in 2021 and spearheaded by the house's President of arts, Culture and heritage, Yana Peele. It's also a prime example of the evolution of the fashion house. Beyond producing seasonal collections, global fashion labels are fast becoming vehicles for promoting arts education, reviving city landmarks and facilitating cultural exchange.
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That was Anita Riota. And for more, you can sign up to our daily newsletter, the Monocle Minute. Head over to monocle.com minute. This is the Globalist. In April 2023, Russian opposition voice Vladimir Karamurza was sentenced to 25 years in a Siberian prison colony due to his criticism of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. In a conversation with Andrew Muller for the Foreign Desk, Karam Mirza discussed his time in prison and laid out the case for how to ensure a post Putin Russia becomes a healthy democracy and why those plans need to be made today. Andrew started by asking Vladimir to recount what it felt like to hear he'd been sentenced for 25 years.
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Well, to be honest, my first thought was a job well done because in the, in the distorted Orwellian reality of Vladimir Putin's Russia, frankly, this is the highest mark of recognition one can get for political opposition work. I'm also a historian, so I couldn't, I couldn't help but think of the fact that this was the longest sentence for a political prisoner handed out in our country since the death of Joseph Stalin. And of course, it was a very pointed way in which my quote, unquote trial was organized. I mean, everything the Kremlin does is very deliberate, right? It's very in your face. So my five counts of criminal indictment were my five public speeches I had made against the war in Ukraine, against political repression and political murders in Russia, against the illegal nature in which Putin stayed in power in violation of term limits and so on. So these were my five official indictments or council indictment, but there was an unofficial one hanging over all of these. And this was, of course, my involvement in the international advocacy for targeted sanctions. Up until last year, I was absolutely certain that I was going to die in that Siberian prison. This exchange that brought, rescued 16 of us from the hell of Putin's gulag last year in August 2024. Well, it was a miracle. Frankly, that's the only way I can, I can describe it to this day. But it was, of course, in many ways a human made miracle because it was made possible by the relentless advocacy, the relentless efforts of so many good people in democratic nations. Parliamentarians Journalists, you know, public figures who throughout all of these years never stopped speaking out, shouting out on behalf of all those people in Russia who are imprisoned because of their public opposition to Putin's dictatorship and to the war in Ukraine. And this exchange really shows just how powerful public opinion in democratic countries really is. And it shows that democracies, when they stand on values and work together, are stronger and more effective than any dictatorship can ever hope to be.
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How do you prepare for any sort.
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Of transformation that stops that being a problem? And obviously, you're right. Obviously what would be delightful is if, for example, Russia enjoyed the same relationship, relationship with, for example, the Baltic states as Germany now does with Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, three small countries next.
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To a once predatory, mighty power. But absolutely nobody thinks there's any chance.
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There of history repeating itself. How do you get to that?
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I think the best way is to look at the mistakes that were committed back in the 1990s. The last time there was this window of opportunity in Russian, it was missed and not repeat them again. And there were just two major mistakes in my view, both fundamental, one domestic, one international. The domestic mistake was the fact that Russia, after the collapse of the Soviet regime, never really went through this process that lawyers sometimes like to call transitional justice, but that is actually all about transparency and accountability. We know that any country that successfully transitioned from dictatorship to democracy has gone through such a process in different ways. In South Africa, after part the of these were truth and reconciliation commissions. In Latin American states after the fall of their military juntas, these were judicial tribunals. In Central and Eastern European states after the collapse of communism, they had lustration procedures where they blocked people connected with the old regime from coming back to positions of power, because when evil is not publicly reflected on and publicly condemned, it is going to come back. And this is what we saw with Putin coming back to power just eight years after the collapse of the Soviet regime, this mistake cannot be repeated next time, after Putin and his regime are gone. And the second mistake, and this is where the west comes in, this is why it's so important to be having this conversation in London and in other Western capitals. The second mistake that happened in the 90s was committed from the side of the west. And it was the fact that the west was not really ready or perhaps not willing to help and assist that nascent democratic Russia on its way to a democratic transition in the same way it was ready to assist and help and welcome countries like Poland and the former Czechoslovakia and the Baltic states that you refer to. I have a Lot of friends in the political circles in many central Eastern European countries. And every one of them tells me how important it was for them back in the 1990s to have that promise of European and Euro Atlantic integration as the most powerful incentive imaginable to persevere with and complete these difficult democratic reforms. Vaclav Havel, when he spoke to the American Congress in February of 1990, described the whole process of post Communist transformation in Czechoslovakia as our return to Europe. This was his phrase, this was important for people. Russia never really had that promise in Europe.
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But is there not a key difference.
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Though, in that those Central and Eastern.
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European countries wanted to be part of.
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Europe and wanted to be part of.
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The Western sphere precisely because they were frightened of Russia, whereas Russia is of course, by definition, not necessarily frightened of itself?
- [38:35]
E
Well, first of all, those central Eastern European countries were dominated and occupied first and foremost by the communist totalitarian regime in the Soviet Union. So it wasn't about countries. But secondly, and most fundamentally, Russia is just as much a European country as the Czech Republic or Poland or Romania. I mean, we've been part of Europe, I'm not even talking about geography, I mean, that's obvious. But we are the largest country in Europe geographically, even if you take only the part of Russia west of the Ural Mountains. But no, to me this is much deeper. I mean civilizationally, historically, mentally, culturally, in every way you look. I mean, Russia is an integral part of European civilization. And to your point that those countries wanted to be a part of the west, wanted to be a part of Europe, well, so did Russia, because on 20 December 1991, President Boris Yeltsin of Russia sent a letter to Manfred Werner, who was the then Secretary General of NATO. And in that letter, which was made public, Yeltsin officially and publicly for the first time raised the question of future Russian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 20 December 1991. The window of opportunity was open then. That letter never even got a response. A few years ago, this was before my arrest, I was writing an article about this for Polish Foreign affairs magazine, and I went to the libraries, to the archives in Washington and other places, places just to look through the documents, the sources, the newspaper clippings, to see how was it even possible that something of this importance from the President of Russia is just completely ignored. And all the sources go back to the same point. As a New York Times article from that period put it, NATO officials were too taken aback by Yeltsin's letter to offer a coherent response. This is A quote. In other words, Western leaders were so shocked by the sudden collapse of the Soviet dictatorship because it was supposed to be forever right to go back to the title of. And then it was gone in three days and people did not know what to do. Well, we know the cost of that failure because what happens in Russia affects everyone. And when Russia failed in its democratic transition domestically, that necessarily conditioned the aggressive vector of its policy towards other countries. You know, there's this direct correlation between internal repression and external aggression in Russia because a government that doesn't respect the rights and freedoms of its own people is not going to respect the borders of its neighbors. It's not going to respect the norms of international law. And so that failure of democratic transition in Russia back in the 1990s had an enormous cost for everyone around our own country, of course, now most tragically for the people of Ukraine. And this is a mistake that cannot be repeated the next time because the only way we'll ever have long term peace and security in Europe, the only way we'll ever get to that proverbial Europe, whole free and at peace is with a democratic Russia next time we have to get it right. And it means that we have to be getting ready for that moment. Now.
- [41:20]
A
That was Russian opposition leader Vladimir Karamurza. And you can catch the full interview on the Foreign Desk this Saturday at midday, London time. You're with Monocle Radio. HI 1. Taiwan's government announced a special defense budget of US$40 billion for 2026-2033 in response to what it describes as growing threats from China. Beijing has strongly criticized the move and tensions over Taiwan continue to shape relations with both Japan and the United States. Well, I'm joined now by William Yang, a senior Northeast Asia analyst for the International Crisis Group. William, thanks very much for joining us again on the show. Why is Taiwan increasingly its defense spending now?
- [42:10]
B
So I think this announcement actually fits with the existing trend that has been taking place for a few years already. This is, in fact, not the first announcement that the Taiwan president has already mentioned about his determination to keep enhancing Taiwan's defense spending. He already made similar comments earlier this year when he vow to enhance Taiwan's defense spending based on the model that NATO has already rolled out to, you know, basically ask its member states to also increase the defense spending to 5% by 2030. But I think it's very important to also look at the backdrop. This is basically happening at a time when China is really trying to accelerate the pace of pushing different measures to try to force the pace of reunification with Taiwan to become faster and at a time when there is a lot more bilateral engagement between the United States and China. And on the other hand, the Trump administration is also putting a lot of pressure on Taiwan to showcase that it is capable and also willing to increase its defense capability, including especially enhancing defense budget.
- [43:32]
A
And what will that increased budget actually be spent on? How, in practical and strategic terms is this going to affect Taiwan's overall deterrence?
- [43:41]
B
So, according to the President's remarks on, you know, on Tuesday, that this is basically going to be focusing on several things. One of the most important is to pour more financial resources into building what he called as a T dome, which is a very highly skilled and also highly developed anti missile defense system. And this is basically going to be modeled similar after Israel's Tedome. And that is going to require a lot of budget to, you know, be focusing on trying to acquire more advanced air missile defense systems from the United States. And on the other hand, there's also going to be resources poured into building up Taiwan's indigenous drone manufacturing capacity because this is also another area that Taiwan has identified to be very important in a potential warfare against a Chinese invasion after witnessing the role of the drone in Ukraine's battle against Russia. So I think these are definitely the two main areas and the rest of the other areas are just continuing to focus on acquiring more advanced missiles from the United States, such as the Tomahawk, which also is a missile that really Ukraine has been trying to get its hand on in recent months.
- [45:14]
A
William, thank you very much indeed. That was William Yang speaking to us from Taipei. And this is the Globalist on Monocle Radio, Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence. All to elevate you. UBS Banking is our craft. Well, now we'd like to do a roundup of Middle east and North Africa news. And to do so, I'm joined by Yossi Meckelburg, who's a senior consulting fellow at the MENA programme at Chatham House. Good morning. It's lovely to have you back in the studio, Yossi.
- [46:15]
D
Nice to be here.
- [46:16]
A
Let's talk about Lebanon and Cyprus. Who signed this maritime demarcation deal. Why is this interesting and important?
- [46:24]
D
Yeah, we know that countries have borders, but we don't always think about. There is also borders within, you know, in the sea, maritime demarcation, it became important. Usually it's about shipping and about where you can defend, especially when you're in Ireland or. But in this case is the exploration of natural gas. And this part of the Mediterranean, the Eastern Mediterranean, have estimated 8 trillion cubic meters, which was around $1 trillion. But fortunately or unfortunately, you know, it can help countries to develop. But at the same time, there are countries that don't necessarily get on with one another. So you have Turkey, Cyprus and Greece. You have Lebanon and Israel. Part of it is Gaza, Egypt and Israel. So in the same how you demarcate, but then that no one will use force in order to exploit, explore and exploit these resources. So now that there is. There was a few years ago an agreement between Israel and Lebanon, this is before the war, to demarcate the border there and then now between Cyprus and Lebanon. This will help also to attract international companies to come because it's costly when it's done digging in the sea. And without political stability, it will be more difficult to attract this company, invest money. So I think this will be a good step forward.
- [47:59]
A
Yeah, well, of course, as Syria is facing the same problem, wanting to get that inward investment, but it's an unstable environment. And there's a piece here in Al Arabiya about Syria's recovery.
- [48:12]
D
Yeah. And I think Syria, you know, we are almost a year since the fall of the Assad regime in December of last year. And Ashara became sort of a revelation. Syria almost became a sort of experiment how to deal with a changed government in the Middle east because. And we need to give Donald Trump some credit here because of the pass of when he was known as Giuliani, because we know that it's called Mohammed Ashara. You know, he's part of leading Al Qaeda in Syria. Probably the Pavlovian reaction is to keep the sanctions there, you know, making sure that there is no what some like in Israel still said, the spread of jihadism through this government and the United States and with it Europe took a very different approach on this case. Remove not all the sanctions, most of the sanction. Because the message that's come from Ashara is he want to change Syria and he moved away from his past and to try to unite not an easy country because, you know, we talk about Lebanon, but also there are different communities there between the Alawis that control the country for more than 50 years, the Sunni Christians and Druze. So also to make sure that everyone is safe there. So what's one of the drivers into which will help to unite the country is economic development. And after, you know, 13 years of. Of war, it needs complete reconstruction. So I think this is happening with the removal of most of the sanctions. I think this is one of the positive stories in the Middle east right now.
- [49:56]
A
Yossi, I've just been in Miami with all of that brings with the Cuban diaspora, Little Havana. There's an amazing restaurant there called Versailles, although it's pronounced Versailles, which is fantastic.
- [50:08]
E
It's Miami Cuban food.
- [50:10]
A
It's huge. It's lots of fun. But what you've discovered or what you're pointing out to me here in. In this review is that Cuban music actually originated in the Middle East.
- [50:21]
D
Yes. I mean, there is this kind of band that's original in the Buena Vista Social Club. We all saw the movie. It's recorded movies 25 years ago that.
- [50:32]
A
Long ago it is.
- [50:33]
D
It was 2000 or 1990 that it. It came. It came, it came out finding this kind of old Cuban musicians that used to play in. Until the revolution in the club known as Bona Vista Social Club, that still music is played there almost every night. And you discover. And that's what. There was a visit by a band that's kind of the succession of the. Of the original one in Dubai. And kind of they talk about the music and the influences. So of course there is in Cuba the influence of African music and African. Cuban jazz music. But at the same time, those who came from Spain, the golden age of Spain, Andalusian music, North African music, and the influence between the kind of the oud, which is a traditional Middle Eastern and the tress guitar. So some of the music and the way that is played is very much influenced by North African music, which the combination. But African, you know, more Sub Saharan Africa and North Africa gives this special kind of tutor to Cuban music.
- [51:46]
A
Absolutely. Have you spent much time in Havana?
- [51:48]
D
I've been because part of my early days I research revolutions and Cuba was one of my case studies that I think I've been around 12 times in Cuba and made sure that I go almost every evening and listen to music.
- [52:03]
A
I've just interviewed this brilliant author called Elena shepherd, who is of Cuban descent and she's written this book called Eternal Forest. I was talking to her at the Miami Book Fair and it really gives you an insight into the revolution and what that means for the Americans who. Or those who live in America. Those decisions that some people stayed and some people left and their lives have turned out completely differently depending on arbitrary decisions made by their grandfathers.
- [52:29]
D
Oh, when they. You know, decided to leave what's known in, in the 1990s as the Special period, which was, you know, poverty, because the Soviet Union stopped supporting Cuba. And the same time, those who Miami very much integrated and not on good terms with the communist regime in Havana. So there is a real tension between the two. Also, there are special American laws that allowed Cuban to immigrate and become residents. They're indifferent to almost any other country in the world. But what never stops Cuban, despite everything, is to stay happy. Play the music like the ballet in Cuba, one of the best. I was told by a teacher in the Royal Ballet here that especially male ballet dancer, they train better than everyone in the world. So when it comes, you know, the paintings, you know, art, the museums, the music, the ballet theater is still great even when there is not much money.
- [53:30]
A
Amazing, amazing people. Amazing place. Yossi Meckelburg, thank you very much indeed. Yossi's a senior card consulting fellow at the MENA program at Chatham House. And this is the Globalist on Monacle Radio. It is the fourth Thursday of November, which means Thanksgiving will be celebrated in the United States and Canada today. Well, traditionally, it's a time of family gatherings and sharing a large meal. Generally, turkey is on the menu. Well, I'm joined now by Rashmi Narayan, who's a food and travel writer, to give us some inspiration for an international festival, Thanksgiving feast. Rashmi Yoshi and I were just talking about Cuba and Cuban food and. And of course, that has really kind of influenced a cuisine in the United States with, you know, Little Havana in Miami and and so on. And so many cultures have been integrated into the American gourmet menu lexicon, if you like, that it really, Thanksgiving has become a truly international feast.
- [55:00]
H
Absolutely. And in fact, I was thinking just based on what I heard earlier, one bit, that I think people are integrating more because, you know, turkeys are widely available, but if they're not, funnily enough, I was in Miami last week and I saw a recipe for a roast pork instead of turkey where they used this beautiful citrus and garlic zest marinade called Mojo. So they marinated with that. And if you can't have turkey, you have this lovely Cuban version of roast pork instead.
- [55:29]
A
So how are multicultural communities reshaping traditional meals?
- [55:32]
H
Well, I think it's the sides. They start with that because, you know, you have turkey, which is like your crowning jewel, but the rest of it, I've seen hasselback potatoes. I've seen Jollof rice. I've seen, well, my own sister who lives in Texas. She does Tex Mex instead because it pleases the kids and gets them to eat more vegetables. So I think Filipino style roasted onions. So I think it's truly global.
- [55:55]
E
Now.
- [55:55]
A
A lot about Thanksgiving is the sides. And we know things like cranberries, there are apples and so on. But climate change is making a difference to all of this. So what happens when you can't, you know, source any of the traditional? I mean, even turkeys are vulnerable to extreme heat, and we're seeing a lot more of that with global warming.
- [56:17]
H
We are. And at such a good point, because what was available, you know, years ago, decades ago, right now with the temperatures we're living in, may actually not be. And I think people should start adapting. So shop local. Look at what's at your doorstep. So if you can't have turkey, have chicken. I'm sorry, I know it sounds like I'm downgrading it, but there are some amazing recipes out there. And even with that sharpness you get from cranberries. I know nothing beats cranberries, but you can adapt and actually get something which is more locally available that brings you more of that sharpness. Think of citrus fruits, think of cherries. Think of things that actually, you know, complement your meat with that sort of sharpness. Because that's what it's all about. It's about balancing the richness of the meat. So I'd say just look at what's at your doorstep and adapt.
- [57:03]
A
All those pictures of turkeys everywhere in the US they remind me of giant babies. Don't they look like little baby corpses? Sorry about that. Let's have a quick look at some recipes.
- [57:15]
H
That is true. I've seen some really, really, you know.
- [57:19]
C
Adverts which are like, oh, hi.
- [57:21]
A
Cluck, cluck, I'm here.
- [57:21]
H
I'm like, oh, God. Okay. But recip. If that's okay, I think I'll start with mulled wine. I know I'm starting straight with the booze. I'm sorry. But, hey, you know, it's the easy one to actually have just there. I would say definitely some mulled wine where it's really easy. This is my own recipe where some red wine. One star anise. I know people use two, but can get quite overpowering. Four cloves, a cinnamon stick. Use the one from Ceylon, from Sri Lanka, because the rest of it can be quite different. With cassia bark instead.
- [57:54]
A
That's true. Sri Lankan cinnamon is the very best.
- [57:56]
H
It's the true cinnamon, isn't it? And it really adds that beautiful sweetness. You're looking for. And instead of lemon, I just go for a little bit of orange zest. It just adds a little something. And then of course, which wine? Oh. Oh my. I tend to just go for what I usually drink, either a Malbec or a Rioja. But then again, any red wine you have works beautifully.
- [58:17]
B
Really.
- [58:18]
A
Rashmi, as the name implies, this celebration is a time to express gratitude for the blessings of the past year. So what will you be thankful for?
- [58:26]
H
Honestly, with the weather right now, I'm very thankful for my heating.
- [58:29]
A
But yeah.
- [58:34]
H
But I'm very, very thankful for this life itself. And I think we do tend to take that for granted. So just the little things, when you wake up, you're like, I'm alive. I'm happy. So, yeah, happy for this life, but definitely happy for my heating.
- [58:45]
A
Rashmi Narayan, food and travel writer, thank you very much indeed for joining. Joining us. And that's all for today's program. Happy Thanksgiving to you wherever you are. And thanks also to our producers Hassan Anderson and Anita Riota, our researcher Joanna Moser and our studio manager, Elliot Greenfield. After the headlines, there's more music on the way and the briefing is live at midday in London. And I'll return on the Globalist at the same time tomorrow. My name's Georgina Go Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.