← The Globalist
The Globalist
The spotlight is back on Ukraine’s corruption scandal – what does this mean for peace?
00:58:55
Loading summary
Transcript108 lines
- [00:04]
A
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 1st December 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Hello, this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin on the show ahead.
- [01:16]
B
But it's also about securing an end to the war that leaves Ukraine sovereign and independent and with an opportunity at real prosperity.
- [01:24]
A
Marco Rubio says the weekend's talks with Ukraine were productive. We'll assess the latest as the nation's corruption scandal rumbles on. And we'll look ahead to Washington's summit with Moscow. We'll examine the societal and political fallout after the Hong Kong fire as the death toll reaches 146.
- [01:43]
C
Then there's no time for being self indulgent to dwell on your doubts.
- [01:49]
A
That's the former prime minister of New Zealand. We'll bring you a taster of a conversation we had with Jacinta Ardern that might stiffen your spine. We'll cross to Zurich for a newspaper review and sweep through the Med for the stories shaping the region. Plus a newly discovered work by Michelangelo and why arriving in Singapore may soon involve more hoops than travelers and airlines bargain for. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Benjamin Netanyahu has asked Israel's president for a pardon in his long running corruption trial, saying the case is hurting his ability to govern, a move the president called extraordinary and the opposition says he shouldn't get without admitting guilt. More than 600 people have died in floods and landslides across Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia after a rare storm in the Malacca Strait with millions affected and rescue work still struggling to reach cut off areas. And Swiss voters have rejected a proposed 50% tax on inheritances over 50 million francs, with nearly 80% voting it down after warning it would drive wealthy citizens out of the country. We'll have a look at that in more detail a little bit later on. Now do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now Ukraine is facing mounting pressure on several fronts on Friday andriy Yermak, Zelensky's chief of staff, resigned after investigators from Ukraine's National Anti Corruption Bureau searched his home, part of a widening probe into an alleged $100 million kickback scheme linked to the state nuclear operator. Two ministers have already stepped down. The scandal breaks just as Europe tightens expectations. Brussels says Ukraine cannot advance on EU accession without high level prosecutions, while Belgium is blocking the EU plan to raise a 35 to 40 billion euro loan using frozen Russian assets. Now, all of this comes ahead of U. S Russia upcoming peace plan talks in Moscow proposing Ukrainian territorial concessions, a reduced army and the recognition of Russian as an official language. Kyiv and Europe reject this, whilst Putin calls it a starting point. Meanwhile, as we reported in our headlines, a US Delegation led by Marco Rubio held talks in Florida with Ukraine's new chief negotiator, Rustom Umarev this weekend, with both sides calling the discussions productive but saying more work needs to be done. Well, I'm joined now by Bloomberg's Brussels bureau chief Suzanne lynch and Stephen DL, Russia analyst and regular Monocle Radio contributor. Welcome to you both and many thanks for being on the show today. It's a very complex story and I'm grateful to you for unpicking it for us. So, Stephen, what more do we know after Yermak's resignation on Friday and what's happened internally and with his replacement in Florida?
- [04:59]
D
Well, as you say, an awful lot to unpick there. It's a very complicated issue, the whole thing. The basic idea of Ukraine having a problem with corruption will surprise no one. Certainly if we go back to the collapse of the Soviet Union. For the first decade afterwards, an independent Ukraine was rampant with corruption. And you could say that the Orange Revolution in 2004 was the first chance for people to complain about this and actually try and improve things. And since then, the, the graph would not have been going in a straight line either way. It's been up and down and certainly before the war started, there were a lot of complaints about corruption. Of course, with the war, that's gone on the back burner, but with these recent allegations against the Energy Minister and the justice minister and now with Andrei Yermak stepping down, it's come to the fore again. But a lot of people to try and condense this very quickly, a lot of people actually see this as a positive step. This is a sign that Zelensky is serious about this. He realizes that corruption has been a problem and he wants to show people that, look, we are doing something about this. So to take the positive stand, the end result of this could be that actually the Americans even say, look, you're doing something about this, you're a country worth helping. So in the long run it could help. Yermak himself has now said that he's going off to the front and he says he's done nothing wrong. He's still, he doesn't want to undermine Zelenskyy and he's actually going to what he's going to do at the front. It's not quite clear whether he's fighting or whether he's just observing for now is not, not obvious, but that is where we stand.
- [06:47]
A
And Suzanne, how is Europe reading Ukraine's position?
- [06:52]
E
Europe is saying it remains extremely supportive of Ukraine, but as you raised there earlier in the intro, it has consistently said that Ukraine needs to address its corruption issues in order to keep proceeding towards EU membership. So one of kind of the techniques Europe has to keep countries in line is that they who want to join the EU is that, you know, they're subject to frequent visits by officials in Brussels, frequent observation. And it means that Ukraine is forced, if you like, to really clean up its act in terms of any suggestion of corruption as it moves towards EU membership. Now in reality, EU membership is still a long way away for Ukraine. One big issue for Ukraine is that all 27 countries need to agree to it. And at the moment Hungary has made it clear that it does not want Ukraine to join the eu. So it is still some years away. But, but cleaning up its, its public sector, its corruption issues is a key part of its accession process to Ukraine. But that's more of a long term issue. In the immediate term, Europe is saying it is still very, very much on the Ukrainian side, continuing to provide it with arms and crucially funding.
- [08:04]
A
Also, although there is a problem with funding, what's driving Belgium's refusal to back the frozen assets loan.
- [08:11]
E
Yeah, and we have EU defense ministers meeting today in Brussels. So we do expect kind of some, some discussion on this. This is the European UN big plan which is to tap, immobilize frozen Russian assets and use those to issue a reparation loan to Ukraine. Well over 100 billion. And really frankly, European countries feel like they don't have the money themselves. It would be a huge ask to ask these countries to keep funding Ukraine, whereas this is a way of making Russia pay essentially for the assets. It is. The reason Belgium is against this is that most of these assets are based in Euroclear Clearinghouse based here in Brussels. So they feel they're on the hook for this risky move. That's how they see it. They want the other countries to share the burden. I mean, it's worth saying as well, for such a long time in this process, Germany was completely against this idea, the ECB was completely against this idea. And then once Germany switched and said, hang on, we actually think there is a way around this, then all the other countries moved. So Belgium is continuing to hold out on this. They need to be convinced. And a lot of other countries are also saying to the European Commission, this is a very complex financial move. It could put us on, you know, risk onto us. So please come back with a very, very detailed legal case about how this plan would work. But time is running out and the European Union had been expected to agree this at their last summit at the end of October. That didn't happen. And so far Belgium has not said that it will agree to the plan.
- [09:41]
A
Stephen, the fallout from the corruption issue means, of course, that the negotiating team was changed. So can you just briefly tell us about what happened Florida this weekend?
- [09:52]
D
Well, it looks very positive from both sides. Certainly they're making the right noises. We heard Marco Rubio at the top of the program saying that he thought the talks went very well. And Rustem Umerov, who's the replacement for Andriy Yermak in that delegation, also made very encouraging noises. Of course, there are still real sticking points. Should Ukraine give up any territory, otherwise, does that simply leave the door open for dictators worldwide who want to march into someone else's territory to take it? So that is a sticking point. We now look ahead to Moscow and see what the American delegation will come up with there. That always brings a worry because the Americans, and Trump in particular, seem to have bent over backwards to try and accommodate Vladimir Putin. And let us not forget, and I think the Americans sometimes do, Putin started this. There was no reason for him to invade Ukraine nearly four years ago and he should not be rewarded in any way for this aggression against his neighbour.
- [11:01]
A
I mean, Suzanne, very briefly, we've seen the Ukrainian negotiator go because of allegations against him. But of course, Witkoff, who negotiates for the us, is being accused of this giant leak. What's been the reaction to it in Brussels?
- [11:16]
E
I don't think there's much trust from the European side towards Witkoff here at all. They don't seem as a particularly experienced negotiator. And crucially, that 28 point peace plan that was leaked, that was devised by Russia and the us, Wyckoff was party to that.
- [11:34]
F
As well.
- [11:34]
E
So I think that's broken down some trust. But I do think one of the key challenges for Europe and Ukraine itself and Ukrainian allies is trying to decipher who is making the decisions in Washington. You know, who is the person here that has Trump's ear. What we're hearing here is that all the negotiators, be it on trade or on foreign policy, you know, are waiting to see what can they get sign off from the president and whatever they're negotiating. So I think this is a consistent problem. The president of Marco Rubio at these most latest talks were seen as a positive. He's seen a bit more, you know, pro European than some of the others around Trump's circle, but definitely at the very least suspicion there about Wyckoff.
- [12:13]
A
That's Suzanne lynch, who's Bloomberg's Brussels bureau chief. And we're also joined by Russia analyst Stephen DL. Thank you both very much. This is the Globalist. It's 1512 in Hong Kong, 712 here in London. The death toll from the fire that broke out on the 26th of November at Wound Phuk Court, a public housing estate in Hong Kong's Tai Po district, has risen to more than 146 with around 150 people still missing. The government's handling of investigation has fueled rising public distrust and political tension, especially with Hong Kong's Legislative Council election scheduled for 7 December under the Patriots only system. Well, I'm joined now by Michael Mo, who's a former Hong Kong district councillor now based here in Newcastle. Michael, many thanks for making time for the show. What impact has this fire had on Hong Kong society?
- [13:40]
G
First, thanks for having me. I think this fire pretty much impact everyone in Hong Kong because like the majority of Hong Kongers live in high rises, whether it is the public housing or the private ones and the mandatory maintenance order which the government will automatically give the any buildings that is 30 plus years above are subject to similar situation that you see that the effective buildings involved specifically about the bid rigging to comply with the mandatory maintenance orders, the contractors, those dealing stuff before 2019. The Democracy Cam and the free media serve as imperfect up wells to pretty much help the residents to screen out those like questionable contractors and contracts. But now pretty much the civil society is dismantled, no free media and tragedy happens.
- [14:48]
A
I mean the Chinese national security authorities have warned residents against using the disaster to plunge Hong Kong into chaos. Do you think there is likely to be some kind of public backlash.
- [15:03]
G
Rather than public backlash? I think people are angry but there is no effective channel to voice out because this is too risky to voice the dissent in Hong Kong nowadays. But I think one of the indicators is that people went to the an official memorial which is the park right next to Watford court instead of 18 government arranged memorial centers across the city. Shows how deep people held the distrust towards the government.
- [15:44]
A
So do you think that this fire will influence the 7 December Legislative Council elections or indeed the broader political environment going forward?
- [15:55]
G
I guess like for now John Lee has little incentive to defer the election because everything has resumed. For instance the stage debates and those campaigns resumed for now. So I think like it would just go on as it is and then Johnny will try to convince Beijing that the low turnout rate is not his fault. It's just simply because of the fire. In terms of the local impact, the Beijing's party, the Democratic alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong will be deeply affected because it is. They have been accused to facilitate the questionable contractors to get the contract and the adviser of those resident contractors has become the government officer.
- [16:58]
A
Right now we know that Beijing stepped in quickly with support for affected residents. How do you think increased involvement from the central government might shape Hong Kong's governance?
- [17:11]
G
Well, two perspectives to look into. First of all, both Hong Kong and Beijing authorities would like to monopolize the narrative that is the government effort and the bamboo to blame war to try to get away with the responsibility that pretty much is the government's negligence. And the second thing we indicator or the impact we'll see is that the government, the Beijing is getting more involved in Hong Kong's day to day matters. Which pretty much spells out how it pretty much spells out the failure of one country to system.
- [17:58]
A
Michael, thank you very much indeed. That's Michael Mo there now, still to come on the program.
- [18:03]
H
It wasn't until she brought it back to New York with her that she realized that this was quite clearly by Michelangelo. And a study for the Libyan Sibyl on the Sistine ceiling.
- [18:15]
A
An astonishing discovery for the art world. We'll hear about a new work from one of the most famous Renaissance artists. This is the globalist. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft Foreign. This is the globalist on monocle Radio, I'm Georgina Godwin broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London, where the time now is 7:18. And joining me on the line from our Zurich bureau is Monocle Security correspondent Garana Gurgik to have a look through today's newspapers. Gharana, good morning to you.
- [19:22]
F
Morning, Georgina.
- [19:23]
A
Well, it's been a busy week in Switzerland. Not only did Monocle have our Christmas market at 90 Dufstrasse and I hope you stopped by, but it's also been another weekend of referendums.
- [19:35]
F
Indeed yes, I was there yesterday, it was pretty packed and busy, so hopefully people have already gotten jump started on all their Christmas shopping because there was plenty to choose there. But also hopefully a lot of Swiss voters have partaken in these two referenda that, that took place over the weekend which firmly rejected the compulsory service for women and foreign nationals, as well as the proposal for a large inheritance tax on the ultra high net worth individuals.
- [20:12]
A
And what were the pros and cons on that one?
- [20:15]
F
So basically on the citizen service plan that would have required women like men to do military or civil protection or some sort of community service and basically was pitched as a sort of effort towards greater gender equality, towards strengthening social cohesion, but it was rooted by basically a very broad no vote on concerns about costs, about work, workforce disruption and actually fairness, specifically when it comes to women still bearing kind of broader burden of, of everything that has to do with kind of care and the contributions that they make for the society. On the proposed federal inheritance tax, that would have been a 50% levy above 50 million francs, that was linked explicitly to fund climate goals. And this was also very heavily rejected, basically, even though those sort of very laudable goals of, of offsetting then some of the costs associated with fighting the climate crisis, ultimately what prevailed is this sort of fright of capital flight where Switzerland would potentially lose a lot in terms of its attractiveness for the specific individuals that do have this sort of money. But what I took out of it was some of the very scathing op eds that appeared just over the weekend in the Swiss outlets like nz, which basically put a blame on some of these proposals, actually towards the more sort of radical or kind of more progressive, let's say wings of parties like the Socialist Party saying that this is quite an embarrassment that parties would have caved towards some of these initiatives like the inheritance tax.
- [22:17]
A
Of course, inheritance tax is all about who your heirs are in fact. And the Wall Street Journal has a fantastic piece linked to this about somebody finding their ancestor or their father on 23andMe and then asking or suing for a cut of the inheritance from a man they had never known.
- [22:39]
F
That's exactly right. And I just couldn't resist this sort of segue because it's very rare. That sort of stories dovetails so nicely when I have to do this sort of news review. But yes, the piece in Wall Street Journal talks about how the new consumer DNA matches. Now that this is sort of proliferated as an industry, people are finding out who their long lost relatives are. They're also surfacing new legal claims. So there is a story, a particular profile where newly discovered half sibling is asserting rights to an estate which involves a multi million dollar malpractice settlement. And the thing is that courts do sometimes accept these DNA based claims, especially when there's evidence that the deceased acknowledged or somehow supported the claimant. So the bottom line from this story has to do with estate planning. If you do have a complex family history, do update wills and documents because DNA tests apparently can create these legal obligations and create a lot of complications for your family long after you departed this planet.
- [23:55]
A
Absolutely. And move to Switzerland where they get or that.
- [23:59]
F
Exactly. To protect. Now that there's no fear that you're going to taxed at 50% above 50 million.
- [24:05]
H
Yeah.
- [24:05]
A
Now it's stupid for us to think we can get away with a news review without mentioning the President of the United States. So let's do a quick Donald section. He's threatening cartels at the same time he's vowing to free a convicted cocaine trafficker. Gosh, contradictory positions from Donald Trump. Tell us more.
- [24:27]
F
Yeah, shock and horror. So just over the weekend President Trump said he would pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez was convicted in the US on drug trafficking charges. Even as you say, his administration publicly threatens and takes action kinetic action against drug networks. So not the first time that Donald Trump seems to be in sort of cognitive dissonance and actually actual policy dissonance there by posting on social media that he planned demands a full and complete pardon for this particular individual who was basically serving a lengthy sentence for conspiring to import hundreds of tons of cocaine into the U.S. so you know, talking about the kind of scale there. But of course this complicates US messaging in Central America. It undercuts these claims that US is cracking down on trafficking. And also it, it puts this sort of spanner into the works of what has happened in Honduras just yesterday, which is the elections.
- [25:36]
A
Yes. So if Trump really had one person he really wanted to win and it Looks like this conservative candidate is probably going to do that.
- [25:45]
F
That's exactly right. So what we know so far, at least from some of these early accounts, is that there is a narrow leap for Nasri. As for who is the conservative candidate backed by Donald Trump, he was the former mayor of the capital. But the outcome still remains a bit too close to call. Again, based on this sort of preliminary and partial results, what we can expect then is that if the president ballot, presidential ballot goes the way that now this sort of direction of travel seems to point, we would likely see a stronger US Honduras alignment on security, on migration, all of these things that are very much the kind of top of the ticket items for the Trump administration. And of course, this is all very important in the context of U.S. buildup of military presence with respect to what's going on in terms of U.S. venezuelan relations.
- [26:49]
A
Exactly. And the Washington Post picks up on that and talks about the Caribbean allies helping the US against Venezuela.
- [26:57]
F
Who are they so far? Dominican Republic, Trinidad, Grenada is joining suit as well. They are these smaller countries that have found themselves now really in an awkward position because how do you say no to the regional hegemon? And again, this is part of the sort of new Don Row doctrine, right? The spin on Monroe kind of assertion of US power and influence in the Western Hemisphere. So the Washington piece really maps who's cooperating with Washington on surveillance, on logistics, political backing, and how these small Caribbean governments have. Are also balancing their economic ties with Venezuela against the diplomatic pressure from the United States. And all of this is quite interesting because if you recall a couple of weeks ago, we had the story about some of us's staunchest allies, like the United Kingdom, actually withdrawing the intelligence sharing. And now we see some of these smaller states filling the void. Obviously not in any kind of of scale or magnitude that could be equivalent to some of the more capable allies, but still it is showing the geopolitical ripple effects of the U. S. Venezuela tensions.
- [28:17]
A
Now, let's jump straight to a really brilliant party. By all accounts, that happened this Saturday. Instagram feeds are just filling up with pictures of this. And it's the wedding of the 31st Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese.
- [28:35]
F
That's correct. And as a naturalized Australian and someone who spent, you know, a good decade and a half living in Sydney, I couldn't go past this Sydney Morning Herald story. But of course it was everywhere. In all of the Australian papers over the weekend, extensive coverage of what ended up to be a really sort of frugal and relatively small affair. So, so Australia's Prime Minister Albanese married his partner, Jodi Hayden in a private ceremony at the lodge, which is the official residence of Australian prime ministers, which is also the first time that a divorced Australian Prime Minister has wed while in office. And what really caught my attention was one that apparently Albanese DJ'd some of his reception music. So that tells you either that really they were running short on kind of resources there to have a DJ do the full time kind of gig, or PM is apparently a kind of a lover of music. But also there's a lot of, of course, reports on the wedding dress where it seems that Jody Hayden was following in the footsteps of, for instance, Michelle Obama, who was always promoting American designers. This time, of course, in this case, it was an Australian brand that designed the dress. It was a small ceremony, only some close family members and close federal ministers attended, and the PM's dog served as the ring bearer.
- [30:09]
A
I loved that, those lovely pictures of their cavapoo just doing its duty.
- [30:13]
F
Toto, yeah. Who has risen to sort of kind of world fame because he's been pretty much everywhere, you know, on these election campaigns and yeah, an integral part of Prime Minister's posse, as he should be.
- [30:29]
A
Gharana Gurdik, thank you very much indeed. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Benjamin Netanyahu has asked Israel's president for a party pardon in his long running corruption trial, arguing that the case is undermining his ability to lead the country. The president says the request is extraordinary, while opponents insist no pardon should be granted unless Netanyahu admits guilt and leaves politics. More than 600 people have died in floods and landslides across Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia after a rare storm parked over the Malacca Strait and dumped a week of torrential rain. Millions have been affected and rescue teams are still struggling to reach isolated communities cut off by washed out roads and damaged communications. And Switzerland has decisively rejected a 50% tax on inherited wealth above 50 million francs, with nearly four out of five voters opposed. Critics warned the measure would push rich families to leave the country, while supporters said it would fund climate projects. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. Now, prime ministers of New Zealand do not usually become globally known figures. Dame Jacinta Ardern did. She seemed an exception to a lot of rules, most obviously in being young and female, but more importantly in attempting, as she saw it, a new style of government governance, placing a greater emphasis on empathy. This was to be put to a couple of the sternest tests imaginable, a global pandemic and a horrendous terrorist incident. Monocle's Andrew Muller spoke to Dame Jacinta for the big interview. He started by asking her if she had any self doubts about the role ahead of her term in office.
- [32:29]
C
I think you can doubt whether or not you are necessarily the best person to take on a job while simultaneously feeling such a huge weight of responsibility that you know when that job is on your shoulders, you just have to crack on. There's no time for being self indulgent to dwell on your doubts. You know, that part happens in the lead up. And it happens to be the case that in my situation, it was a short lead up. Once the job was on my shoulders, then there was no deliberation. I just had to make it work. And so it's perhaps a contradiction, but that was certainly my experience. Responsibility outweighed doubt.
- [33:08]
I
At that point, your premiership ends up being dominated, I think, and certainly both events are quite rightly covered in the book and the film by two great crises. One was the crisis which affected everybody who was doing your job at the time, which was obviously the COVID 19 pandemic. The other was the terrorist attack in Christchurch in March 2019. And it's very vividly conveyed in the book, especially, I think, both your bewilderment and your anger at what had occurred because. But what I was wondering, and again, this is a specific question to being Prime Minister of New Zealand. If you become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, I guess, or President of France or the United States, probably at some level you have an idea that at some point something like this is going to happen and you're going to have to have a logistical and rhetorical response. You're going to have to have something to say when you become Prime Minister of New Zealand. Does this even occur to you as a possibility that you will have to deal with an absolutely monstrous terrorist attack?
- [34:06]
C
You're right. That isn't something that you have at the forefront of your mind. But you also, in many ways just have that general sense that you have to be prepared for anything at any time. You know, my predecessor had a horrific earthquake and a mining disaster. Natural disasters are something that we have a consistent kind of eye to and level of preparedness for.
- [34:30]
I
So something like the Whakare volcano, you've thought about something like that?
- [34:34]
J
Well, probably.
- [34:35]
C
I mean, the level of specificity. Of course, you know, Whakare is an active volcano, and so it's not unusual for us to have activity there, but activity at a Time where there happens to be a boatload of tourists on it. There are some things that you don't necessarily obviously anticipate, but I do remember when I first became prime Minister, going through a risk register. You know, essentially, what are the things that could happen in New Zealand? And, you know, it has everything that you could imagine on that list, but there are those things that feel more plausible. But regardless, you have to have a level of preparation for them. Can you mentally prepare, though? You know, my experience generally is that in many ways, you can't fully prepare for leadership, full stop.
- [35:19]
I
So your personal response to Christchurch, as you recall, it was that more or less improvised, hour by hour. You were just thinking as you understood what had occurred, these are things I should do, These are things I should say.
- [35:32]
C
Improvise is a word, but I think I prefer intuitive. You know, as politicians, I think one of the things that is really important to try and maintain attachment to, but I think probably the larger the country, the more difficult that is, is your own intuition because it's so closely connected to your sense of people and where public sentiment is. But the, you know, the larger the country, the less proximity I think you're able to sometimes have with people. Your security detail gets larger, the protections get larger. Probably the bubble is a little bit different and the more advisors, you know. So something that I consider a blessing in New Zealand is that you have that proximity, and maybe that makes it a bit easier to maintain your instincts. And so for me, March 15 was a lesson in so many things, but one of them was feel willing to have a first and foremost, human response to what is a deeply challenging, you know, a moment that challenges everyone's sense of humanity. And that's something that, you know, I did not expect to be remarked upon because, as I say, it felt intuitive to me.
- [36:41]
I
I mean, this plays into a lot of what the book talks about, certainly, which is this idea of empathy in leadership. And you spoke, when you spoke to the United nations, at least once, you made a kind note, a motif of what you were talking about. But is there a potential trap with the idea of empathy in itself? Because it's the easiest thing in the world for a politician to turn up and say, I feel your pain, and then do nothing about it. Does it necessarily have to be accompanied by action? And I'm referring again to Christchurch. You did charge very hard on reform to New Zealand's gun laws after that.
- [37:17]
C
Yeah, it's a great question, and I have very strong view on this in my mind. Empathy, you know, is nothing without action. Because ultimately, at its core, take away the label and it's the sentiment that you feel so strongly that your duty is to not only support those who in that moment have had that experience. And so there were a whole range of things we worked really hard on alongside the Muslim community, but it's also driven by a sense of how do I prevent this happening to anyone else ever again? And that of course demonstrates that, you know, empathy is strongly associated with that motivation towards action. And you're right. For us, that manifested as we need to do something about access to military style and semi automatic weapons in New Zealand. He, the shooter, in our case the terrorist, used AR15s. He legally obtained them, he illegally modified them. Our view was we need to take these out of circulation. And so we moved. Within 10 days of introducing the laws, we passed them, over 50,000 guns were returned in a buyback scheme and they were destroyed. We also though asked the question, you know, in our case there was an extra layer of victimisation and the fact that this was livestream, the attack was livestreamed for 17 minutes. A video of that horrific attack and can you imagine a family member losing their life in such a violent way and then knowing that that moment is being circulated online? It was uploaded once a second onto YouTube in the first 24 hours. So that turned into a sense of duty to hold social media companies not only to account in the removal of content like that, but what are those pathways to radicalization online and what can we do about that? And so we created the Christchurch Call to Action. We worked with President Emmanuel Macron. It's now got a, you know, upwards of 130 countries, organisations, civil society who are a part of it. And we keep doing work to try and prevent these kinds of radicalized, violent extremist acts. And that is what empathy is. It is a series of actions, not just moments of grief.
- [39:38]
A
That was the former Prime Minister of New Zealand, Dame Jacinter Ardern, speaking with Monocle's Andrew Muller. And you can hear the whole conversation on the big interview. This is Monocle Radio. And now to the world of art, where international auctioneers Christie's have recently uncovered an extremely rare route. Red chalk drawing by Michelangelo. The 5 inch tall sketch of a bare foot was submitted online to the house by chance and has since been identified as part of a study for the renowned Sistine Chapel ceiling at the Vatican. Monocle's Luxury Markets editor Brenda Tuohy spoke to Andrew Fletcher, global head of Old Masters at Christie's, to learn more about the discovery she started by asking him what made the team realize they might be looking, looking at a real Michelangelo.
- [40:29]
H
The drawing was. Well, astonishingly, the drawing was submitted through our estimate request portal, where we received dozens and dozens of images a day. So it would have been quite easy just to dismiss it. You know, maybe the expert who received it would have been in a rush. You know, maybe they'd already done 10 valuations that day, but they didn't. And they recognized immediately the strength of the. Of the drawing. This was earlier this year, in the spring of 2025. In fact, it had such a strong impression on our specialist, Jada Damon in New York, that she rang the owner immediately and jumped on a plane within a day or two to California to go and see it. Of course, you can't really judge a work of art from a photograph as effectively as you can in the flesh. So that was quite a necessary step. And it was immediately obvious to her when she stood in front of it in the owner's home that it was something incredibly special. And, you know, she obviously knew it was related to Michelangelo in the first place. It wasn't until she brought it back to New York with her and put it side by side with another red short drawing for the same figure which is currently housed in the Met, that she realized that this was, in her opinion, quite clearly by Michelangelo and a study for the Libyan Sybil on the Sistine ceiling.
- [41:54]
A
Now, you had said to me that another way of authenticating the piece was the fact that on the reverse side of the one at the Met, it had a black chalk drawing. Was that.
- [42:07]
H
That's right. So Michelangelo famously reuses the same sheet of paper for multiple times on multiple different projects. And the Met red chalk drawing has on the reverse a black chalk drawing, an earlier drawing for the same figure, sort of the first kind of working out, if you like, of. Of that figure's pose. Now, Michelangelo used black short drawings in the first phase of his Sistine ceiling project from sort of 1508, 1509, and then he transferred his medium to red chalk about late 1510, 1511. To the naked eye, you can't see anything on the back, but you put it on a light box and you look, look at it through infrared. You can see that there is a drawing on the back, and on the back is a black chalk drawing of a thigh and the beginning of a calf and a buttock. We don't know precisely what that is. A study before, for me, I think it's a study for one of the ignudo figures. These nude men at the. Which kind of. You see in between the bays of the Sistine Ceiling at the west end of the ceiling, which is where he started and therefore where he was using black chalk to work out his figures. So that was really exciting when we found that on the back of the drawing, which you wouldn't see other than through using special light methods.
- [43:26]
E
Now, Michelangelo was prolific in his drawing.
- [43:30]
A
I understand, and yet only a few hundred drawings survive. What do you think is a reliable current estimate on this particular drawing?
- [43:42]
F
What kind of an estimate have you put on this at Christie's?
- [43:46]
H
Well, let me contextualize what you've just said about the number drawings. I mean, there are literally less than a dozen drawings by Michelangelo in private ownership, and therefore that could potentially one day, or rather be acquired by someone. So it's exceptionally rare. And, you know, this is the only drawing for the Sistine Ceiling, perhaps the greatest work of art of the Renaissance, some would say the greatest work of art ever produced. It's the only drawing for that project that's ever come to auction. So we've very conservatively estimated it at one and a half to two million dollars. But I expect it to do a lot better than that.
- [44:22]
E
The drawing stage stayed in the same family for centuries. Or was it a surprise to them? Were they aware that they had a Michelangelo?
- [44:29]
H
They didn't know they had a Michelangelo, obviously. They knew about the association with Michelangelo because of the inscription on the front. But it was news to them that this was or is a study by Michelangelo. We've now managed to establish that it was very likely bought by the current owner's ancestor in the 18th century. He was a Swiss diplomat who was a voracious collector of drawings and prints. Very, very good drawings and prints called Armand or Louis Armand de Mestral. And it's just gone to the current owner through various inheritances over the ensuing 220, 30 years.
- [45:04]
F
I mean, it's incredible the way that we're now obsessed with climate control and different things for drawings, their delicate nature. It's amazing that this drawing is in.
- [45:14]
A
Such pristine condition, having survived for centuries.
- [45:17]
F
In someone's home, I presume.
- [45:19]
H
Yeah. But in a way, the best thing for a drawing or a painting or any work of art is not to move. So if it's been in the same ownership for 200, 250 years, the chances are it's not going to have gone through all the wear and tear and processes that something that's been around the market every 10, 15 years, we always find the works of art in the best condition tend to be the ones that have just changed hands the fewest times.
- [45:45]
F
In the current art market, where contemporary often dominates.
- [45:49]
A
Does a find like this shift the.
- [45:52]
F
Spotlight back on Old Masters?
- [45:54]
H
I really think it should and it does. I've said one or two times in the past week or so, you know, if you were to conceive of the most exciting find of a career in the art world, the idea of finding a drawing study for potentially arguably the greatest work of art of the Renaissance is so extraordinary that it appeals to every single person who's got even an iota of interest in the world of art. So whether you're a collector of contemporary art or of postcards or stamps or whatever it is, this touches every single one of those people because it's such a famous and important work of art.
- [46:40]
A
That was Andrew Fletcher, global head of Old Masters at Christie's, speaking to Monocle's Brenda Toohey. This is the globalist on Monocle. Radio, iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies, bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft. A roundup now of news from the Mediterranean. And joining me in the studio is Emanuela and Papa Savelliu. Did I nearly get it right? Yeah.
- [47:40]
B
Hi, Georgina, how are you?
- [47:41]
D
Hi.
- [47:41]
A
It's lovely to have you back here. I know you've just come back from Athens and I also know that you quite want to challenge what Brenda and her guest were talking about in terms of the greatest work of arts ever produced. Not coming from Greece, of course. You have El Greco, you have amazing statuary and sculpture, don't you?
- [47:58]
B
We do. And as I was just mentioning to you before, some of the most famous one are in the Louvre and we also have some in the British Museum. So, yeah, there are loads.
- [48:10]
A
There are loads. There are loads and loads. Let's talk then about the British Museum and people like that, grabbing Greek goods and wanting to have control over the Greeks. Because this is also playing out in the ports, right?
- [48:23]
B
Yeah, it does play in the port. So right now, Greece's coastline, there's a competition between China and the us. Now, as we know, the Piraeus Port, the main port of Greece, has long been China's showcase project in Europe. So Cosco, the Chinese company, has invested and transformed the port into one of the busiest in the Mediterranean and it's a flagship of Beijing's Belt and Road initiative in Europe. But last week attention shifted a bit further west in the Elefsina port. Now, Washington has thrown its weight behind this new redevelopment plan there. It's a modern industrial and logistics hub designed quite openly to counterbalance China's presence in Perez. And it's also part of a bigger picture of America wanting to have a large footprint in Greek maritime networks. The United States has been quietly strengthening its position in several other ports as Alexandrupoli, Volos. But by investing in Alefsina now was they announced they could get a full rival to Cosco's dominance there.
- [49:24]
A
That's very interesting and really symbolic of this global fight for dominance that's going on, isn't it? Let's have a look at Alexis Tsipras. Now he is of course the former prime minister who defined Greece's crisis years. He's just released a memoir.
- [49:41]
B
He's just released a memoir book called Ithaca. You know, alluring to Homer's Odyssey. It's a smash hit with Greek audiences. Just to make you understand like four Greek standards, 33,000 copies sold within the first 24 hours. Now the book revisits the turbulent summer of 2015, the referendum negotiations, the ideological fractures that emerged within the party. But it also draws line between Tsipras and his once closest partners such as Yanis Varoufakis. He writes in his book, for example, there are times that he was unsure whether to laugh or cry as at his finance minister's proposals because they were once very close.
- [50:21]
A
And I think this is what's shocking Greek society is that attack on it.
- [50:25]
B
And what's notable here is that usually when a politician, an ex prime minister, gives a book, it's usually like a farewell. However, now analysts are saying that probably this is, you know, it feels more like a careful positioning, as he says. We will know more this Wednesday when he will officially do like a launch of his book at the Palace Theater, big theater in Athens. And analysts think that there's something closer to an announcement of a political comeback.
- [50:56]
A
That's extraordinary. Well, from come back to welcome back because Athens has officially opened its holiday season.
- [51:03]
D
Yeah.
- [51:03]
B
So last, last Thursday, the mayor, Harris Lucas has officially lit the city's central Christmas tree in Syntagma Square. It's big, it's beautiful, 19 meters tall, rapid in light, surrounded by month long program of concerts and public events. And you know, it has already transformed the capital's center of gravity there. It's quite, quite a Nice thing.
- [51:26]
A
What's weather like for Christmas in Greece?
- [51:29]
B
Well, right now, as I was there last week, thunderstorms. But it's good because at the moment there's a big story about, you know, facing droughts, etc. So that, that, that could be helpful.
- [51:42]
A
Yeah, yeah. And the tourist season, I mean you, it's kicking off now but surely the summer would be the peak.
- [51:49]
H
Right?
- [51:49]
B
The summer would be the peak, but tourist season lately, it's all year long, like I have to tell you. The airport was packed.
- [51:58]
A
Yeah, yeah. Despite the thunderstorms. Quite scary. Manus, it's lovely to have you back.
- [52:03]
B
Thank you very much.
- [52:05]
A
Emanueli Papa Vaseli with there. Thank you. You're listening to the Globalist on Monacle Radio. So we've just been talking about tourism season in Greece, but Singapore is shifting border security to the check in desk. From January 30, airlines will receive no boarding directives telling them not to let certain passengers on Singapore bound flights if they're flagged as high risk or don't meet entry rules. It's part of a move towards upstream screening with checks happening long before anyone reaches Changi. Airlines face fines for non compliance and the system will extend to sea arrivals by 2028. So I'm joined now by Adam Hancock, a journalist usually based in Singapore, but joining me now from Sunny Denpasar in Bali. Adam, hello to you. What is driving Singapore to introduce these new rules now?
- [53:28]
J
Well, they're trying to really toughen up their border measures and in their opinion the best way of doing this is, is kind of taking the processes that are already in place but making them a little bit more extreme, a little bit more strict. So a lot of at the moment when people are flying to Singapore, it will flag up on the flight manifest or from the arrival form that people have to submit before boarding a plane to Singapore. And it will flag up any, any travelers that they, you know, they want to check out. They might think they're kind of high risk or undesirable, these words that they've been using to, to describe these travelers. But currently those checks take place when they arrive in Singapore at the immigration desk. But now they want to actually make those checks happening before they even even got on the plane to Singapore. So it's kind of removing what they currently do to another country and ensuring that they don't even get to Singapore in the first place. And as I said, it's part of a wider initiative really to keep potential threats from reaching Singapore shores in the first place place as you Said it's going to be rolled out towards arrivals overseas coming in on the sea. And they've also been looking at land border points as well. There's two main crossings into Singapore, overland or over bridges. I should say a little bit trickier in terms of that because people are often, you know, taking buses over the border or driving over the border. So it's a lot of paperwork to process and it's difficult to stop them before they get in the queue for the border. But, yeah, I think it's just part of enhanced measures really, to try and, and keep the country safe. And obviously it's a huge travel hub. Singapore receives millions of visitors every year coming through Changi Airport and they want to do their best to try and protect the country.
- [55:07]
A
I mean, surely this is going to have a huge impact on airlines operating flights to Changi. It's going to be expense for them. It's going to be difficult for them to process all these, these travelers.
- [55:18]
J
Absolutely, yeah. I think this is no small feat. It's, it's putting the responsibility squarely with the airline. It's, it's quite a strict situation. The carriers that regularly come to Singapore, they've all been briefed about this. It's coming in at the end of January. They're going to have to do a lot more checks on passengers. So if, if some, something flags up, if a passenger flags up, it's called a no boarding directive or in classic Singapore speak, ndb. And if, if a passenger flags up as an NDB but ends up boarding the plane, then the airline can face a fine up to 10,000 Singapore dollars. And in some cases, even employees of the airlines can also be fined or even jailed as well. So they're certainly not messing around with this. And airlines are going to have to be incredibly careful about this, making sure that no passengers with one of these MBD notices actually ends up on a plane.
- [56:08]
A
So what kinds of passengers do end up with those notices? What kind of people are they trying to stop?
- [56:14]
J
So it's people who they deem to be a security risk. So they may have been involved in crime or, or involved in activities that would threaten the safety of the public or national security. There was a recent example of that. In September, a man called Nathan Law, who's a Hong Kong pro democracy activist, he tried to come to Singapore. He actually did arrive in Singapore to, to try and attend an event. He had all the correct paperwork, but he was actually denied entry and the Home Affairs Ministry said it was because his presence in Singapore would be not In a such Singapore's national interests. So it's people like that who they, they deem like a threat to either safety or the security of Singapore. Also those, and the majority of people actually who are turned away is due to immigration risks. So people who, you know, they're concerned they might work illegally or overstay their visa or engage in activities which, you know, are not permitted under their visa and also just, it's as simple as people who don't actually meet the requirements to enter the country. So they're, their, they might not have the right visa or their passport might not be valid for six months. So there's a kind of wide range of reasons why somebody might, might be denied entry.
- [57:21]
A
And is there an appeal system?
- [57:24]
J
Yes, yes. So people who actually are denied entry, they can appeal this. They can't immediately get on the plane. They have to write to Singapore's checkpoint authority to seek approval for entry. So I imagine it will not be a quick process. I don't think they'll be able to do it at the airport and get on the next flight. But, yeah, there is an appeal, but it won't be immediate, so they won't actually be able to board that specific flight.
- [57:49]
A
And so finally, is Singapore setting a trend here or is this simply classic Singapore just being efficient and controlled and one step ahead of everyone else?
- [57:59]
J
Well, I think it's a little bit of both, really. I mean, it's not entirely something completely new. It's not something that they've invented. Other countries do kind of use the, this no boarding directive or they screen people in advance and ensure that they, you know, they can't get on flights because of security issues. I think Singapore is preparing for increased travel in the coming years. They're opening a new terminal. You know, the rebound after the pandemic has been insane in terms of travel and they now deem that this is actually more efficient. An efficient way to screen people is to screen them before they even arrive in the country. They also now have better systems as well. So a lot of the time when you arrive in Singapore or you depart, you don't actually have to show your passport. It's all done via facial recognition. So they're picking up a lot more people as well who they don't want to enter through that as well. I think the numbers for the first half of this year were a lot higher of people denied entry compared to the last year. So I think it's kind of classic Singapore. They like to complicate things and have lots of measures in place. But also it's is something that's not completely new in aviation as well.
- [59:01]
A
Adam, thank you very much indeed. That's Adam Hancock. And sadly, that's all we have time for today. Thanks to our producers Hassan Anderson, Monica Lillis and Laura Kramer, our researcher Joanna Moser and our studio manager Elliot Greenfield with editing assistance both by Christy o'. Grady. After the headlines. There's more music on the way and the briefing is live at midday in London. The Globalist will return at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thanks for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.