The Globalist – December 1, 2025

Episode Theme:
Spotlight back on Ukraine’s corruption scandal – what does this mean for peace?
Host: Georgina Godwin | Guests include: Suzanne Lynch (Bloomberg Brussels Bureau Chief), Stephen DL (Russia Analyst), Michael Mo (Hong Kong), Andrew Fletcher (Christie’s), et al.

Episode Overview

This episode navigates turbulent global affairs, focusing deeply on Ukraine’s latest corruption scandal and its implications for the country’s war effort, international reputation, and ongoing peace negotiations. Other stories include the aftermath of a catastrophic fire in Hong Kong, pivotal referenda in Switzerland, a newly discovered Michelangelo drawing, and political shifts in Greece and Singapore. Each section features expert commentary and first-person insights.

Main Discussion: Ukraine’s Corruption Scandal & Peace Talks

Background

• On Friday, Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff, resigned amidst a probe into a $100 million kickback scheme linked to Ukraine's state nuclear operator. Two government ministers had already stepped down.
• The scandal erupts as Brussels warns Ukraine: No further progress on EU accession without high-level prosecutions.
• Belgium is blocking an EU plan to repurpose frozen Russian assets as a loan for Kyiv.
• U.S.–Russia peace talks approach, with Moscow proposing terms Kyiv and Europe reject outright.

Key Discussion Points

Ukraine's Response to Corruption

• Stephen DL (Russia Analyst) [04:58]:
  • Corruption is a longstanding issue for Ukraine, tracing back to the post-Soviet era.
  • The recent round of prosecutions, including Yermak’s resignation, is generally seen as a positive—a sign of Zelensky’s seriousness in tackling corruption, potentially bolstering Western support.
  • Quote: “A lot of people actually see this as a positive step... this is a sign that Zelensky is serious about this. He realises that corruption has been a problem and he wants to show people that, look, we are doing something about this.”
  • Yermak claims innocence, plans to go to the front, but his future role is unclear.

Europe's Stance

• Suzanne Lynch (Bloomberg) [06:52]:
  • The EU remains supportive but insists on tangible anti-corruption progress as a condition for future membership; Ukraine is under near-constant scrutiny.
  • Actual membership remains a distant prospect, with Hungary actively blocking the process.
  • Quote: “Europe is saying it remains extremely supportive of Ukraine, but… it has consistently said that Ukraine needs to address its corruption issues in order to keep proceeding towards EU membership.”
  • Immediate funding and arms shipments continue, but financial pressure is mounting.

The Frozen Assets Dispute

• Suzanne Lynch [08:11]:
  • EU wanted to issue a €100 billion+ loan to Ukraine, backed by immobilized Russian assets.
  • Belgium resists, fearing liability since most assets sit in Brussels; wants greater burden-sharing and robust legal groundwork.
  • Quote: “They feel they're on the hook for this risky move… they need to be convinced.”

Shifts in Negotiation Teams

• Stephen DL [09:51]:
  • New lead Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov has replaced Yermak; U.S. Senator Marco Rubio led the American side in Florida-based talks.
  • Both sides call the weekend discussions “productive,” but territorial concessions remain a major sticking point.
  • Quote: “Should Ukraine give up any territory, otherwise, does that simply leave the door open for dictators worldwide who want to march into someone else's territory to take it?”
  • U.S. positions are seen as accommodating towards Moscow, raising European concerns.

U.S. Internal Controversies

• Suzanne Lynch [11:15]:
  • Distrust in Washington’s lead negotiator, Witkoff, is high due to leaks of a US-Russian “peace plan” and perceived lack of experience.
  • Ongoing confusion over who truly has President Trump’s backing in negotiations.
  • Quote: “One of the key challenges… is trying to decipher who is making the decisions in Washington.”

Notable Quotes

• Stephen DL [04:58]: "A lot of people actually see this as a positive step. This is a sign that Zelensky is serious about this."
• Suzanne Lynch [06:52]: “Europe is saying it remains extremely supportive of Ukraine, but… it has consistently said that Ukraine needs to address its corruption issues in order to keep proceeding towards EU membership.”
• Stephen DL [09:51]: “Should Ukraine give up any territory, otherwise, does that simply leave the door open for dictators worldwide…?”

Timestamps for Main Segments:

• [04:58] – Ukraine corruption reaction & Yermak’s resignation
• [06:52] – Europe’s response, EU accession debates
• [08:11] – The frozen Russian assets loan debate
• [09:51] – U.S./Ukraine negotiation shift and Florida talks
• [11:15] – Distrust over U.S. negotiators and diplomatic confusion

Hong Kong Deadly Fire & Political Fallout

Summary

• Death toll surpasses 146 after a fire in Hong Kong’s public housing; 150 more missing.
• Government response stokes distrust as authorities warn against public dissent ahead of December 7 Legislative Council elections.

Key Insights

• Michael Mo (Former District Councillor, Newcastle-based) [13:40]:

  • The fire affected everyone—most live in similar high rises—and exposed issues in mandatory maintenance orders and contractor bid-rigging.
  • Post-2019 crackdowns have left civil society and media unable to act as watchdogs.
  • Quote: “Now pretty much the civil society is dismantled, no free media and tragedy happens.”

• On public anger and election impact [15:02]:

  • People are angry but fear voicing dissent. Choosing unofficial memorials over government ones shows erosion of trust.
  • The fire is likely to lower electoral turnout, with Beijing’s favored party vulnerable due to corruption accusations.

• Beijing's increased involvement [17:10]:

  • Greater mainland intervention in daily governance seen as evidence of ‘One Country, Two Systems’ failure.

Timestamps:

• [13:40] – Impact of the fire on Hong Kong society
• [15:02] – Public response and electoral implications
• [17:10] – Central government involvement

European Front Pages and Swiss Referenda

Switzerland’s Weekend Referenda

• Inheritance Wealth Tax:

  • 50% tax on estates over 50 million francs rejected by nearly 80% [19:22]; fears of capital flight outweighed arguments for climate funding.
  • Quote – Garana Gurgik [20:14]: “Even though those sort of very laudable goals… ultimately what prevailed is this sort of fright of capital flight.”

• Compulsory Citizen Service for Women:

  • Plan for national/military service for women overwhelmingly rejected; cited concerns about cost, fairness, and workforce disruption.

DNA Inheritance Lawsuits

• Wall Street Journal piece on legal complications arising from DNA testing [22:39].

Timestamps:

• [19:22–22:17] – Swiss referenda results and implications
• [22:39] – DNA-based inheritance legal claims

U.S. & Central America: Contradictory Policies

• Donald Trump Section [24:04–25:35]:

  • Trump’s pledge to pardon ex-Honduran president convicted for drug trafficking stands in stark contrast with crackdowns on cartels, complicating U.S. messaging and policy coherence.

• Honduras Election [25:35]:

  • Conservative, Trump-backed candidate Nasri Asfura likely to win. Closer alignment with U.S. security interests expected.

• Venezuela [26:49]:

  • Washington Post reports on small Caribbean states joining U.S. in efforts against Venezuela, indicative of shifting regional alliances.

Global Culture & Human Interest

Jacinda Ardern Interview – Empathy in Leadership

• On doubt and duty [32:29]:

  • Quote – Jacinda Ardern: “You can doubt whether or not you are necessarily the best person to take on a job while simultaneously feeling such a huge weight of responsibility… you just have to crack on. There’s no time for being self-indulgent to dwell on your doubts.”

• Responding to crises [34:06, 35:31]:

  • She stresses intuition in leadership and proximity to people as a strength in New Zealand.

• Empathy & Action [37:16]:

  • Quote: “Empathy is nothing without action… For us, that manifested as we need to do something about access to military style and semi automatic weapons in New Zealand. … Within 10 days of introducing the laws, we passed them, over 50,000 guns were returned in a buyback scheme and they were destroyed.”

Timestamps:

• [32:29] – Self-doubt and political leadership
• [35:31] – Crisis intuition and empathy in action

Art World: New Michelangelo Drawing Discovered

• Christie’s Old Masters Global Head Andrew Fletcher [40:29]:
  • Red chalk study for the Sistine Chapel’s Libyan Sybil, previously unknown.
  • Only a handful of Michelangelo drawings still privately owned.
  • Quote: “If you were to conceive of the most exciting find of a career in the art world, the idea of finding a drawing study for… the greatest work of art of the Renaissance is so extraordinary that it appeals to every single person…”

Timestamps:

• [40:29–46:40]: The discovery, authentication, valuation, and broader significance

Mediterranean News Roundup

• Greece:
  • U.S.–China competition visible in port investments; Washington backs redevelopment of Elefsina port to counter China’s dominant position in Piraeus [48:22].
  • Ex-PM Alexis Tsipras releases memoir ‘Ithaca,’ seen by analysts as political repositioning [49:40].
  • Athens kicks off the holiday season with a major Christmas tree lighting [51:02].

Singapore: Border Security Overhaul

• Adam Hancock [53:27]:
  • From Jan 30, airlines must deny boarding to flagged passengers before departure (“no boarding directive”), shifting responsibility to carriers.
  • Aimed at security and immigration risk management; penalties for non-compliance are steep.
  • Quote: “It’s putting the responsibility squarely with the airline… If a passenger flags up as an NDB but ends up boarding the plane, then the airline can face a fine up to 10,000 Singapore dollars. And in some cases, even employees… can also be fined or even jailed.”

Timestamps:

• [53:27] – Singapore’s upstream border controls and implications for travelers/airlines

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Stephen DL [04:58]: “You could say that the Orange Revolution in 2004 was the first chance for people to complain about [corruption] and actually try and improve things.”
• Suzanne Lynch [08:11]: “Belgium is continuing to hold out on this. They need to be convinced… could put risk onto us.”
• Michael Mo [17:10]: “The Beijing is getting more involved in Hong Kong's day to day matters. Which pretty much spells out how it pretty much spells out the failure of one country two system.”
• Jacinda Ardern [37:16]: “Empathy is nothing without action. … For us, that manifested as we need to do something about access to military style and semi automatic weapons in New Zealand.”
• Andrew Fletcher [45:54]: “If you were to conceive of the most exciting find of a career in the art world… a drawing for potentially arguably the greatest work of art of the Renaissance is so extraordinary….”

In Summary

This episode provides vital context and expert insight into the recurrences of corruption at the heart of Ukraine’s government, the shifting positions of its allies, and the potential ramifications for both war and peace. It also ranges across demonstrations of public trust, the reshaping of border security, and stunning cultural discoveries, bringing nuance and depth to current world affairs.

For more, listen to the full episode on Monocle Radio.