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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 5th March 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, the expanding theatre of Iran's war. The geography now includes the Indian Ocean where a US Submarine sank an Iranian warship in international waters will have the latest.
Indzi Rashid
Also coming up, Iran is shifting this conflict from a military fight to an economic one targeting regional energy infrastructure and threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. I'm here on the ground in Oman with the latest.
Emma Nelson
Our Gulf correspondent in Zaman Rashim will bring us the latest on five days of conflict across the Gulf.
Adam Ward
Plus, Japan, I think, is perhaps more so than other countries vulnerable to these kinds of shocks because of its dependence on external sources of energy.
Emma Nelson
We'll find out how the war is affecting economies across the globe. Our focus today is on Japan. Plus we hear from one author who believes that this year's World cup can be free from political trouble, despite what's happening in the world. And we'll be heading to Madrid for the design fair too. That's all coming up on the Globalist live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. The Chinese government has set its lowest economic growth target for decades, an acknowledgement of the serious challenges facing China's economy. Stock markets, however, in Asia have bounced back after a few days of losses that raised concerns over the crisis in the Middle East. And people in Nepal are voting in the first election since youth led protests toppled the government last September. Stay tuned to Monacle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, let's begin with what's been described as the expand theater of Iran's war. The geography now includes the Indian Ocean where a US Submarine sank an Iranian warship in international waters yesterday, and Turkey, where NATO shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran and headed towards Turkish airspace. We will also be going to Cyprus in a moment to join our chief reporter from the Cyprus Mail, Tom Cleaver. But first, let's hear from Guarana Gurgi, Monocle security correspondent, who joins us on the line from Zurich. A very good morning to Guarana.
Guarana Gurgi
Morning, Goodman.
Emma Nelson
And a very good morning to you too, Tom. We'll come to you in just a moment. But, Gharana, let's have a look at the way that Donald Trump is positioning this war at the moment. This sinking of an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean in international waters marked a very bold step forward, didn't it?
Guarana Gurgi
Absolutely. So as you already alluded to, this marks a really significant geographic widening of the conflict because it is going outside of the immediate Middle Eastern coastal regions. And it actually is somewhat of a precedent, if you think about what the event actually was. And it's something that we haven't seen actually since World War II, where US submarine torpedo sunk an Iranian warship. So this warship was actually coming from a joint exercise with India. So it was returning home. And basically it was struck on this mission. It had nothing to do with with some offensive activities necessarily against US Assets in the wider Indian Ocean. But so far, what we've heard from Sri Lankan authorities, over 100 missing, they're potentially dead. And in total so far, actually, United States has now sunk about 20 Iranian ships. So we see that this is not just a conflict that's taking place on land, where we see, of course, significant aerial strikes, but also it is widening.
Emma Nelson
So from the perspective of your security correspondent role, when you see so many countries being drawn simultaneously into one conflict, what is your reaction?
Guarana Gurgi
Well, it is a bit of what we were all hoping would not happen, but we're sort of, I would have to say, expecting and even in our chats, if you recall from last week, about the potential for this to spiral out because, of course, we have to understand the motivations of all of the warring parties. And here Iran is clearly fighting for its survival, its regime, that is to be precise. So it has widened the war drawn in other countries in order to increase the cost and try to by doing that. So it seems in this kind of calculus to try to actually dampen some of the strikes. But in doing so, I think it has turned a lot of these Persian Gulf countries that have been mostly in the public being ambivalent before now kind of side more with the United States, of course, and and maybe provide basic rights and things that they wouldn't have done in a way, again, that they they did before, right, to actually conduct conduct offensive activities and similar. But of course, on the US Side, this is and on Israeli side in particular, this is a fight to what we've heard so far to actually get rid of this regime being one the main sort of causes. And it is no wonder that, again, with these sort of calculus where, you know, you have a survival on the one side of a regime that's impalatable for the other side, that we are seeing this really spiral and intensify in the way that we are seeing these days.
Emma Nelson
One part of the world which has been drawn into it is Cyprus. Tom Cleaver, chief reporter from Cyprus Mail. A very good morning to you, Tom. How are things on the island this morning?
Tom Cleaver
Good morning. Thanks for having me on. At the moment, things are reasonably calm. There was obviously one drone which hit the island on in the early hours of Monday morning. Since then, there have been a few near misses. There were suspicious objects spotted yesterday. They turned out to be nothing. Was the most recent development we had. The mood, let's say, is people are bemused, slightly fearful of what may happen. A lot of people have amused at the existence of the British bases. They feel that the existence of the bases on the island have put a target on the back of the island and its people. But aside from that, things are generally calm. The local government here is putting some precautions in place to attempt to ensure that should the worst happen, people will be at least more prepared than they otherwise would have been. They've been informing people about shelters and they did attempt to have an emergency warning system message, although that still requires some work.
Emma Nelson
What. What does that mean?
Tom Cleaver
In many countries now, they have early warning messages which are sent to people's mobile phones. I think the government had plans to roll this out over the coming months, maybe, but they. Obviously that was hastened and they attempted for the first time to do it yesterday. And there were a number of people who didn't receive messages. Mine came 20 minutes early and then I got a second message afterwards, so I was doubly safe. But a number of people said they didn't receive any message at all. Or one of my colleagues at the Cypress Mail, he received his emergency message two hours after the fact.
Emma Nelson
There is a wider question, though, isn't there, about the role that places like Cyprus play? And the Cypriot High Commissioner to the United Kingdom has not held back in their criticism of the way that the British, in his eyes, took their time to respond. He said that the least his country expected was for the government to provide a robust defence of the island that is home to two British bases. I mean, the attack was. The drone was sent to Aria Fakrotiri, which has been in Cyprus for decades and decades and has been the base from which sorties have been launched in the past. What happens next when it comes to the relationship between Cyprus and the United Kingdom, given the fact that Keir Starmer decided not to engage fully and not to participate fully in the military operation of the US and Israel against Iran, but waited until Akrotiri came under attack?
Tom Cleaver
I think the High Commissioner's words reflect the opinions of the wider population in that sense, that people, as I said people are generally opposed to the idea of the bases, but they think that if the bases are to be there and they were signed into Treaty in 1959, the least that can be expected of the British government is that they be defended. And obviously the villages in the surrounding area also be defended because the village of Akrotiri itself, which is located just a few hundred meters from the Runway, had to be evacuated on Monday and the schools in the surrounding villages were closed on Monday as well. And obviously there's been knock on effects of people's lives and people saying they're living in fear. So, yeah, people would expect at the very least that it be defended. And that's why the local government here enlisted the help of the Greek Navy, the Greek Air Force and the French navy because they felt exposed by Monday morning's events.
Emma Nelson
And indeed, let's go back to Guarana and talk about the, the role that the wider region now plays in this. Given the fact that everybody, neighbors near and far, are being drawn into this conflict. And we see in the Times headline this morning just mirroring what we've just been hearing from Cyprus. You failed US on Iran Middle East Allies tells uk, Bahrain and the UAE Join Cyprus in criticizing Zakir Starmer's slow response to Tehran's retaliatory strikes. It's a demonstration, isn't it, Guarana, that not everybody is united, everybody is depending on everybody else. And it doesn't work that way.
Guarana Gurgi
Well, things are moving at a rapid speed and I think that we have to understand that some of these things again are taking place. If we want to specifically turn on to some of the discussions in NATO and within NATO countries, for instance, they do require political response, they do require coalition consultations. We've seen, of course, you mentioned already the UK response initially was actually to not be as forthcoming in intelligence sharing or in providing basic rights in Chagos Islands. So we are moving again towards more towards the Indian Ocean. But I think what's been significant now, again, as you say, conflict is spreading. It was Cyprus first, but overnight, of course, we've had that missile that was heading towards Turkish airspace that was struck and intercepted. Intercepted first, right. And struck by NATO command. So in this sense, I think that the more that we see these types of provocations and outright attacks, they are going to actually trigger alliance responses, even from the countries that are maybe or have been first more reluctant to do so. However, there will always be notable exceptions. And we can also open that one up with, for instance, Spanish Prime Minister being very vocal about the role that Spain is going to play moving forward.
Emma Nelson
Indeed, I think the Financial Times is headlined, this morning is Spain is Pedro Sanchez is Donald Trump's European nemesis. Let us bring in our Gulf correspondent in Zamam, Rashid. A very good morning to you, Indzi. Just tell us where you are. You've got a vantage point where you can actually see Iran this morning, is that correct?
Indzi Rashid
Good morning, Emma. Yes. Coming to you from the top of a mountain, an abandoned house behind me to my right, we've got a number of D of Dhow boats. I'm at the very tip of Oman and straight ahead I can see about half a dozen cargo ships. And very faintly in the distance, I can see Iran. It is a bit of a hazy morning this morning, but from this very tip to Iran, this is the Strait of Hormuz, which is now very much at the center of this conflict. Emma. War has choked the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict has paralyzed the Gulf's key oil route and it sent energy prices soaring. Oil has risen by 14% since this conflict began. We know that global shipping through the strait has been suspended. Several ships have been attacked. Yesterday, a Maltese vessel was attacked by two Iranian missiles. Early this morning as well, there are reports of another attack in the Strait of Hormuz. And Iran's Revolutionary Guard are claiming that they have complete control over the shipping here. They've also warned, Emma, that if anyone does try to cross or come near the boundary parameters that they have set, they will threaten to burn any ship that attempts to do so. And they vowed not to let a single drop of oil be leave the region. As a result, we've seen around 200 vessels backing up now on either side of this strategic waterway. And as I mentioned, that spiked oil and gas prices, it's affecting the world. And this is only three days of the Strait being shut. There's suggestions that if this goes on for a couple of weeks, that's when we'll really be seeing the ramifications of Iran blocking off the straits. We know that 20% of the world's LNG passes through here. It's a vital link from the Gulf to the Indian Ocean. And situated right here in between where I am and Iran, of course. And it feels like, Emma, over the last, I'd say, couple of days of this conflict, Iran is shifting it from a military fight to an economic one. They're targeting regional energy infrastructure, obviously threatening the shipping through the strait here and specifically trying to make life difficult not just for the Gulf, but the wider world economically as a result. How do we move forward from this? That's a big question and it's something that President Donald Trump has also been trying to tackle. He suggested that US Navy ships were ready to escort oil tankers through this very busy shipping strait. Analysts out here, though, feel that that really won't solve much of the problem, even if he is allowed to do that. We've already seen Iran targeting tankers who come near or who are switching off their signals and are trying to get through the straits. And we've also got to remember, as I look down on the ground and I can see pistachio shells in front of me, Iran is the largest exporter of things like pistachio fertilizer as well. And of course oil, around 20% of China's reserves come from Iran. And I think the problem we have here is that Iran will be potentially shooting themselves in the foot by holding up this traffic in the Strait. It can't get its own export out to the rest of the world. So whilst there are missiles still being fired into Gulf states and from Israel and the US directly into Iran, it's here on the Strait of Hormuz where the rest of the world will really feel the consequences of this conflict.
Emma Nelson
Emma Ghorana, bringing you back in on the line from Zurich as a security correspondent. When you listen to what Nzi has just been saying about the profound and wide ranging effect of waging an economic war when countries are gaming conflict, how much does actually the private sector, day to day business infrastructure actually get thought about here? Because in the space of what, a five day war, the potential wide ranging consequences of blocking one small patch of water is huge.
Guarana Gurgi
You're absolutely right. And I would say that this actually is something that's part of a larger sort of change that we've seen over the past decade at least, again, in the context of not just what's been going on in the Middle east, but truly in terms of heightening strategic competition, of course, US and China and a lot of these things, thoughts about economic resilience and security have gone about what would happen if we have issues in say Taiwan Strait or South China Sea and similar, what does it do to the shipping and supply chains of everything from hydrocarbons to semiconductors? So I think that when it comes to private companies, there is a lot more of resourcing that dedicated towards assessing what geopolitical and geoeconomic risks are now on the side of what you asked more of the kind of how much governments actually pull in some of these major companies and so on, and whether these things are an afterthought. I would say in this particular mission, given how we've seen the diplomatic side of things and repatriation of even American citizens has gone or actually is, is not going right, and how many are stuck there? I think that some of these things weren't necessarily front of mind. What we hear now from reporting time and again is that this was a decision that was made, you know, in a, in a way that was quite sudden and based on this latest intelligence over where Ayatollah would be on that particular Saturday morning and so on. So in that sense, I don't think that in the particular inst we are talking about, this was front and center to kind of try to work out the economic fallout. But having said that, I think that again, the private sector, whichever sort of industry we are talking about, coming off the heels of the pandemic of the war in Ukraine, has gotten used to the fact that we no longer live in a world that is just in time, but just in case, right, that they need to build more slack, that they need to be prepared for these external shocks just simply because this is where the world is going towards less predictability and stability.
Emma Nelson
Karana Gurgic, Monocle Security correspondent on the line from Switzerland. Thank you so much. And thanks also to Inzaman Rashid, our Gulf correspondent reporting from Hasab in Oman. Thank you. Still to come on today's program, three
Simon Cooper
host countries, 16 host cities, 48 participating national teams, 104 matches.
Emma Nelson
We have just under a hundred days to go until the FIFA World cup in the U.S. canada and Mexico. We'll hear from one author who believes that the world can avoid the world's geopolitical crisis when it comes to football. Stay with us. On the globalist.
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Emma Nelson
It's time now to have a look at the newspapers organisations which are doing everything they can to keep up with what is going on. Let's continue having a look at how they're covering the conflict in Iran with Yossi Meckelburg, Senior Consulting Fellow at the Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House. Good morning, Yossi.
Yossi Meckelburg
Good morning, Emma.
Emma Nelson
Right, how are things with you? Busy.
Yossi Meckelburg
I mean, yeah, as you can imagine, it's busy. And we're back in another round of war.
Emma Nelson
And keeping up is clearly a challenge given the fact that any single incident which is being reported at the moment would ordinarily make headline news. So trying to distill some sort of sense from this is probably quite a challenge. Although I probably imagine that you'd be fairly equipped for this one. But trying to work out what's going on is really hard.
Yossi Meckelburg
It's one thing about kind of the details, Watson. We also live in a world that is chaotic and unpredictable with leaders that are, you know, there is the motives and there are ulterior motives working there. So it all makes it more complex. But again, we should answer this, Matt. What happens right now in the war in Iran is one of the most momentous events in the history of the region. You know, that we started with what looks like airstrikes on Iran and now we are in a multi front war. So. And how all the moving parts in the international community react to this. While you don't know, you know, how it's always in wars, you know how it starts, but you don't know how they end. Right.
Emma Nelson
Let's have a look at the way that other countries have been drawn in. There's an article in the New York Times that you wanted to bring to our attention, which is about Mark Carney and the support that Canada is now giving to the United States. It would be great if Canada and the United States were on a good sure footing at the moment, but there is trouble in this marriage at the moment. So when one partner relies on the other one being done with a certain sense of reluctance.
Yossi Meckelburg
Yeah, I don't know if it's the right way to put it, but you know, Mark Conley became sort of a the Jiminy Cricket of the international. He's kind of the conscious of the international community now and said, you know, when all go crazy, you know, first in the. And that's why I brought this article first in Davos, you see. Yes, we have to accept the world is not coming back to what it was. There is a rupture in the international community. Me, us, you know, Canada, the UK EU and the rest of are actually mid power countries that should take a different take than the United States, China and Russia. And this is just what happens in Iran. He says yes, we support, you know, removing the regime in Iran. We don't want Iran many said we don't want Iran with nuclear but we do it with regret. And this is I think the key what he says that and the New York Times brings it. It's with regret. It's regret because they don't There is no consultation with us anymore. We are members of NATO, we are part of the semi alliance and G20 and G. But the United States doesn't consult us. So is the real alliances and it's emphasized why we need to operate in alliance with the United States but also separately.
Emma Nelson
And he uses this speech that he delivered in Sydney yesterday that the New York Times is reporting on as to say that look, his support of the military action, the regret element is because the current conflict is another example of the failure of the international order. But this is something that he mentioned in Davos which is the idea is that there is this veneer of everything being okay. But at the heart of this is the fact that there was a narrative despite everything there was a real threat from Iran in terms of its in the way that it pursues its nuclear enrichment program. There was a reason why there was a problem in the first place.
Yossi Meckelburg
But the question how you deal with this if we still believe in the rule based international law and this doesn't work anymore because whenever a country decide to use force without a mandate from the United nations, without being attacked using preemptive very loosely what is preemptive war? As both Trump and Netanyahu there is a real issue to collective security and what is the role of the United nations altogether? On the other hand, you're absolutely right. What do you do with a country that also doesn't obey by its own agreement and develop nuclear weapons which you don't want in a government that kills its own people to possess nuclear weapons.
Emma Nelson
Let's step away from the Iran war. Having devoted the best half of the well the first half of the program at least to it. There's an article in the Washington Post Post which focuses our minds on US Domestic policy. JD Vance very, very quiet when it comes to international conflict. This is not something he wishes to engage in, but he's now talking about Joe Biden and the cost of living setbacks that will take time. Now, Joe Biden boasted that America was better off when he left office. And yet the perception was so different.
Yossi Meckelburg
Absolutely. And I think the two connected. When we talk about the war in Iran and Trump try to solve all the wars in the world and what Wanzi is doing, which also assume he's already positioning himself to the next presidential election and also the midterm election because Trump came on the wave that, you know, we don't want to deal with international affairs all the time. We what American people care is about cost of living, about law and order, about immigration, job creation, employment, all of this is what. And all of a sudden the president that promised them all of this. Yeah, obviously when he dealt with immigration, did it in a way that obviously upsets many Americans by violating not only human rights, but also the Constitution with the tariffs exactly the same that the Supreme Court already decided that it's unconstitutional. And at the same time cost living is soaring. So the people that voted for Trump said we don't get the benefit. International affairs, if you look at Serbia in the United States is down, down, down the list of what Americans, you know, ordinary American really care and what Vance is trying to do, Listen, we promise you it's the first time from this administration someone actually admits we don't do exactly what we promised you because usually it's exactly the opposite hype way more than we do. Tell the American people that they get
Emma Nelson
quick look at the Guardian doing that thing that it does when everything has gone to turmoil. It sends us to French bookshops.
Yossi Meckelburg
Yes.
Emma Nelson
Actually everything is fine. Now. Is this a new story or is this just someone coming along and saying, gosh, aren't French bookshops nice?
Yossi Meckelburg
I think this is the case. Someone you know that's used to go, go to France quite you know, for many, many years. And probably at this kind of realization, actually there are a lot of bookstores in the United in France. And he said that in proportion, you know, there are so many more than in the US and in the UK and many other countries. And you know what, it's really nice to go into a bookshop instead in a world that all, you know, generated by AI and we all the time on the phones and reading digitally. It's really nice, the smell of a bookshop going and have nice coffee these days and read the book and touch a book and go page by page.
Emma Nelson
Indeed. And then you bring them back to London and you bring all your magazines back to London. I think I have a foot high tower of magazines left unread, not to mention the books that have been brought back from Paris. And that is that thing, isn't it? That the feeling and the romance of being in a bookshop transports you to something, but it doesn't necessarily. Well, I'm just talking from entire personal experience here that when, that it's actually quite difficult now for concentration to make it sit down and actually take the, that time and create that space.
Yossi Meckelburg
It's how we consume information. It's not kind of half a sentence here, half a sentence there and we think we know, but there is never. And I, I feel it's with my students when you try to go work to the classical text, you know, look to see how someone start with an argument, how they build an argument and come to a conclusion throughout this. And then you see sometimes, you know, the idea of reading a book, you know, cover to cover, which doesn't exist when you all the time, you know, search for just a piece of information. And I think that discovering the bookshop,
Emma Nelson
how do you persuade your students to read?
Yossi Meckelburg
It's very difficult. You can keep going. Obviously they look at, you know, people like me like a dinosaur. You know, the idea that, you know, you read the book cover to cover. And I think it started actually at universities with the curse of textbooks because textbooks took and summarized.
Emma Nelson
They take everything out of everything, don't they?
Yossi Meckelburg
And said no, go and you know, in international relations, realism, idealism, liberalism, constructivism, Marxism, go and read it and you see where people come, what is the background and it will push you to research more, to know more. But it's difficult. So you have to find different ways.
Emma Nelson
Thank you very much indeed. Yossi Meckelburg, never a man I would describe as a dinosaur. But if you're listening, Yossi's student sharpen up because Yossi is senior consultant fellow at the Middle east and North Africa program at Chatham House and a regular voice of course, here on Monocle Radio. Now here's a quick look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. The Chinese government has set its lowest economic growth target for decades. The target of between 4 and a half and 5% is an acknowledgement of the serious challenges facing China's economy. Stock markets in Asia have bounced back after a few days of losses that raised concerns over the crisis in the Middle East. The biggest rise came in South Korea. And people in Nepal are voting in the first election since youth led protests toppled the government last September. The election is seen as a contest between the political establishment And a new generation of politicians. This is the globalist. Stay tuned. 1631 in Tokyo. 8:31am in Zurich. Now rising tensions between the United States and China and now the war in Iran are creating new uncertainties for the global economy. For Japan in particular, a country deeply reliant on global trade and energy imports, these developments could have significant economic and geopolitical consequences. Well, to discuss what this means for the country, Monocle's Ryuma Takahashi heard from Adam Ward, managing director at Oxford Analytica in Tokyo. And Ryuma began by asking Adam about the shift in what's driving geopolitics.
Adam Ward
We've moved away from what was previously understood to be a rules based international order to one in which deals are what matters. And sometimes the deals are very transient. Instead of agreed norms on behavior and treaties and so on, it seems that geopolitics is much more driven by coercive power exerted by different powers, military, economic, big power, competition. And I think that makes the world much more vulnerable to different forms of shocks. And usually those shocks have a strong economic component to them. As we've just seen in the last week with regard to US and Israeli military action against Iran, there have been immediate feed through effects in terms of energy prices, shipping routes, routes, and even questions about the degree to which inflationary pressures will impact monetary policy. And Japan, I think, is perhaps more so than other countries vulnerable to these kinds of shocks because of its dependence on external sources of energy and because it is of course, a highly engaged global trading nation that relies for a large proportion of its GDP on exports and imports. So Japan is not unique in facing these challenges, but it is perhaps in some ways more vulnerable to them than others.
Indzi Rashid
I think this trade of holmus is very important for Japan.
Guarana Gurgi
Around 80 to 90% of Japan's oil
Indzi Rashid
imports pass through it. So if it's blocked, what impact could
Guarana Gurgi
that have on Japan?
Adam Ward
I think the main concern would be around energy prices, the impact feeding through the energy supply. Japan does have a dependence on Middle Eastern oil and it's also of course, not just a case of the supply routes for those, but the degree to which refining capabilities in the Middle east and the Gulf are being affected by the war. They're being targeted in some cases. We've seen gas facilities hit in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, energy installations hit as well. We will have to see just how significant the impact is and how long it lasts. President Trump suggested that it may be possible for American warships to escort shipments through the Straits of Hormuz. But Iran still has the capacity to harass and threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz through missiles and drones. So the threat would not be entirely eliminated even if there were escorts.
Guarana Gurgi
So if the situation continues, what do you think Japan might do for countries
Adam Ward
like Japan that have strong energy dependence on the Middle East? I think it will strengthen the incentive that the Japanese government has already recognized on a number of areas. One is to rebalance its energy consumption mix, providing a larger role for renewables. I think the government has a target for that by 2030, 30 of approaching 40%. But of course, Japan has also taken the difficult decision of re embracing nuclear power despite the tragedy of the Fukushima disaster. And I think that is a response to necessary pressures of a more unstable world. Of course, it's going to take some time in order to get that capacity into place, as well as to shift the energy of mix towards renewables. It's not going to be a quick fix. So to the extent that the conflict in the Middle east persists, Japan will continue to be significantly affected by it.
Indzi Rashid
Thank you.
Guarana Gurgi
So finally, beyond the conflict in the
Indzi Rashid
Middle East, I think there are many tensions in the world today, including US China relations.
Guarana Gurgi
So from a diplomatic and geopolitical perspective, how do you see Japan's position right now?
Adam Ward
Well, I think Japan faces some challenges. Obviously, Japan has worked very hard to keep the relationship with the United States on track, but I think Everybody recognizes that U.S. behavior is more unpredictable. Japan last year, of course, signed up to a very significant trade deal with the United States and also made significant commitments to invest in the United States, about 550 billion over a period of years. And that was of course intended to make sure that the trade relationship stayed stable, but also that the geopolitical relationship remained on balance. Obviously, Japan relies to a significant extent on American defense cooperation to meet its security challenges. So the trade deal was never entirely just a commercial economic bargain. Obviously, it's not impossible that the Trump administration might make further demands or different demands in future. So there's a kind of degree of instability that's built into this relationship. At the same time, of course, Japan looks to China. There's a very significant trading relationship with China, but also considerable geopolitical differences there. It is a partnership, not really. It's more of a arrangement of mutual convenience in terms of the economic side of things. But politically and geopolitically, there are irreconcilable differences. Up until now, those have been well managed. The two sides have not allowed their geopolitical differences to destabilize the economic relationship at the moment is looking for a trade war or a trade fight with Japan. It's in the difficult process itself of having to negotiate with the United States. And there is a presidential summit, Trump and Xi, coming up in April. So I don't think China is looking to rock the boat too much with its relations with Japan, but there are some structural problems and fault lines in the relationship.
Emma Nelson
And that was Adam Ward, managing director at Oxford Analytica in Tokyo in conversation with Monocle's Ryuma Takahashi. You're listening to Monocle Radio. Well, let's pick up on some of those points raised with a roundup now of the Japanese business news. I'm joined now by Elizabeth Beattie, who's Asia business and economics correspondent for the Japan Times. Good afternoon, Elizabeth.
Elizabeth Beattie
Afternoon.
Emma Nelson
She joins us on the line from Tokyo. Just a quick question. How we have a lot of reports this morning saying that the Asia markets are rebounding this morning or this afternoon, Is that correct? Yes.
Elizabeth Beattie
So they tumbled and yesterday they slumped pretty dramatically. But we're seeing on Thursday there's been a bit of a rebound. Some of that is credited to discussions around ceasefire, but they seem to be a little bit sunnier than they were earlier in the week, for sure.
Emma Nelson
And indeed, this idea of a ceasefire, it seems to be totally counterintuitive to what we've been hearing in the last few hours in terms of the way that the conflict is expanding. So what is the reason for the Asian stock markets to actually genuinely believe that things could be calming rather than going in the opposite direction?
Elizabeth Beattie
It's a little bit tricky to speculate at the moment. There tends to be a dramatic hit whenever we see a big news story. And then there tends to be a little bit of a rebound. It could just be that people are being a little bit cautious. They're kind of waiting and seeing. Japan is very wait and see. Generally, businesses here, they don't tend to react as sharply. It's a little bit difficult to come up with with one reason. But at the moment they seem to be a little bit, a little more settled than they were.
Emma Nelson
And we have the Japan Times reporting today that the governor of the bank of Japan, Kazuo Oeda, has warned that the Middle east conflict could have a major impact on the nation's economy. But as a result, this is one of those moments where the authorities will hold their fiscal policy steady in order to try to ride out any long term storms.
Guarana Gurgi
Yeah.
Elizabeth Beattie
So officials, they've expressed concern about the situation, but there is definitely a top down approach to try and keep things calm not to, not to spook markets or worry Japanese businesses too much. So there's been a lot made of the fact that while Japan imports a lot of its oil from the Middle east, that it has these oil reserves. Even though Japan has said it's not going to tap into their oil reserves, that seems to have had a calming effect as well. So they're going to great efforts to try to keep things as calm as they possibly can.
Emma Nelson
Given the Prime Minister came in with a sort of a radical policy to sort of reshape the Japanese economy, what do you think is, is going to be the, the way that the government goes forward with this one?
Elizabeth Beattie
Well, the budget's expected to come through at the end of this month, so the Prime Minister, Sanae Taka Ichi has said that that's going to stay on course. There doesn't seem to be. Well, not that they've kind of communicated at this stage. There doesn't seem to be any, any movement or change there. Japan has these existing very challenging economic conditions and they're likely to be exacerbated by, by the situation in the Middle East. But there's still issues they have to, to tackle here. You know, inflation increasing, cost of living, wages being low, the yin being weak. These are all very structural issues that will be exacerbated by other issues but remain regardless.
Emma Nelson
Yes, you assume that everything was fine before the war started and actually no, there were plenty of things to talk about beforehand. Let's move on to another story that's coming out of Japan which is I think the Labubu was The thing for 2025, a rather strange looking toy. Japan clearly trying to get in on the market and has invented another fluffy toy which is by all accounts doing very well and being emblematic of, of Japanese good business.
Elizabeth Beattie
Yeah, so it's funny, Lebubu took everywhere else by storm but it, it didn't resonate in Japan and there was this kind of theory is that there were already too many cute quirky creations. But it does seem that Japanese businesses have looked at the market and seen that there's appetite for this type of thing. So I recently spoke to the founder of this company, Ukai Engineering, Shunsuke Aoki. And he is developed this cute little pink fluffy robot. He doesn't directly compare it to Labubu but he's following the Labubu playbook and marketing it overseas as kind of this wearable fashion accessory. So it's this little pink fluffy heavy robot. It's about the size of a hedgehog and it's it's a lot cuter than Labubu and potentially a little bit easy to ingratiate in a mainstream fashion aesthetic. It recently made an appearance during Milan Fashion Week and he's trying very hard to position it as fashionable, as trendy. So Le Boo Boo, but maybe a little bit bougier.
Emma Nelson
It is, it is interesting, that idea of trying to position something when it is brand new. Obviously you go to social media now to find your fashion crazes, but the idea that you can actually position something as a craze before it's even really started. How realistic a prospect of success is there?
Elizabeth Beattie
Well, it's hard to say. I don't think anyone could predict that Labubu was going to explode in the way it did or similar the jellycat UK plushie which just exploded in China. It's a bit hard to kind of predict these things in advance. France, I think, I mean, he's obviously working very hard with influences and is is planning this pop up with Harrods in London. So I think placement is, is a big part of his strategy. But it does seem to be like you said, you know, discovery on social media and also celebrities. I think once David Beckham was spotted with Olubu as well, that kind of gave it a burst as well. So, yeah, I guess they have to get lucky in a way.
Emma Nelson
Elizabeth Beattie, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Tokyo. This is the Globalist.
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Emma Nelson
Now. In less than 100 days, the world cup begins. Already there has been much hand wringing about the United States. Normally a fun choice being a suitable host given what's happening in the country Gulf and indeed given who is occupying the White House. Well, my next guest argues we should set aside all this and just have a very nice time. Simon Cooper, author of World Cup Fever A regular voice coming from Paris. A very good morning to you, Simon. Thank you for joining us on the Globalist.
Simon Cooper
Good morning, Emma.
Emma Nelson
How is Paris looking this morning?
Simon Cooper
The sun has come out as in London. So after the punishments of five months of winter, we're getting happier.
Emma Nelson
Wonderful. I'm so pleased to hear it. And that is the attitude that you're suggesting that we should all take when it comes to the World Cup.
Simon Cooper
No, I mean, I think we should hugely enjoy the World cup and at the same time keep in our heads that the US is run by a. Would be authoritarian, that they've launched an illegal war on Iran. I think that World Cups are a source of immense joy and togetherness for, you know, literally billions of people. There's nothing that is as big an event in the world entirely, but it's bigger than Trump or bigger than FIFA. And when people talk about boycotts, you are taking away this enormous pleasure and you're kind of giving too much credit, as it were, to these naughty people who are running these organizations or naughty or worse.
Emma Nelson
How much do you think that the idea of these, what you describe, the naughty people actually is getting in the way of people's enjoyment of, or rather anticipation of what is always a very, very good event, given the, that we, we read into the, the idea of the number of tourists, for example, expressing or, or feeling reluctance to go to America and indeed, you know, the Canadians and the Mexicans, let's bring them in as well. But you read places, you read in, in places. The idea that people are going to go to the location and the venue of the World cup, but will not spend extra dollars in sticking around in the United States and enjoying the tourism, it's the, it's the ancillary stuff that people are worried about. Not ne.
Simon Cooper
Yeah. I mean, I'm not looking forward to going to the US and trying to get through customs and then maybe ask me about my social media history. Of course it's a gruesome situation. But this is quite common for World Cups. In 2018 it was in Vladimir Putin's Russia. Last time it was in Qatar. Another autocracy in the past. My first World cup watched on television was the Argentinian military generals in 1978. So this is a very standard thing for World Cups. And I think what we've learned is that the World cup casts a spotlight on places like Argentina and Qatar which, where the regimes were not really getting any scrutiny. The U.S. of course, has enormous scrutiny. What I suggest is that it's in blue America. Nine of the 11 cities have blue Democratic mayors and other is Santa Clara, which is deep blue run by a non partisan. So, so blue America can turn this not into a Trump but into an anti Trump event. Trump didn't go to the super bowl for fear of being booed. I think at the World cup it will be that time seven and you can have mayors and just local people speaking for a different America. Saying, everyone is welcome here. We will play, you know, lovely Mexican music before the games of Mexico. We will, you know, have street parties. We will drive people to the stadium. They can stay in our houses for free. Because, of course, it's also, as well as being increasingly repressed, impressive. It's an unaffordable country. So what I'm saying is that the World cup doesn't belong to Trump. It belongs to so many other Americans and fans. And the great thing about soccer is in the stadium, you can shout what you want. That's why even in authoritarian regimes like Iran, the soccer stadium is a place of freedom where people often chance against the regime. So I'm saying that the World cup should be used in all these ways, make it so that Trump wouldn't dare go near a stadium during the tournament.
Emma Nelson
So this is more of a cryeraction of active rebellion and active protest as the purpose of the World Cup. Given the fact that the World cup
Simon Cooper
has many purposes, also football. But most of the people there will not be visitors, will be Americans. That's always true at a World Cup. The majority of people there are from the home country and Americans can afford the tickets more than the rest of the world can. And these are Americans from cities like, you know, Philadelphia and Boston and also Kansas City and Miami, which have voted for, voted against Trump.
Emma Nelson
Is there not, however, an argument to be heard in the way you describe the administration in the United States as being the Trump regime? There will be people who are pro Trump supporters who also like football. So were it, would it not be arguably a little bit more sensible and a little bit cooler headed to say, actually, let's just not talk about it while we're watching football. Let's, let's just concentrate on the, on, you know, what's in front of us. Us?
Simon Cooper
Well, I think people will and do during the games. So what I've always found with World Cups and brief plug for my book, World Cup Fever, which describes all this, is that until the first game kicks off, people are talking about these kinds of issues. You know, the governments of the country, the bad things that are happening, the cost of the stadiums, whatever it is. The moment the tournament kicks off, people are obsessed and made happy and uplifted and brought together by the football. And everybody's talking about, did you see that goal? Or he shouldn't have sent him off, or I love that funny dance. That player did.
Emma Nelson
Tell us, therefore, a little bit more about the, the organization itself. It is always, the last time I checked, a brilliant event that like many Global sporting events, just at the last minute manages to pull everything out of the bag. But when you look at the organization behind it and the likes of Gianni Infantino, he promised widespread changes to FIFA when he was elected to the role, but it was, what, nine months ago, since there was an open letter to FIFA saying that there are still key structural flaws. Should we not be concentrating at, you know, inside the football World cup, inside FIFA, rather than using it as something which is a geopolitical place of expression?
Simon Cooper
I think it should be all those things. Yes, absolutely. There should be the scrutiny. And FIFA, it's a very hard organization to control. It's normally based in Switzerland. Switzerland gives enormous free rein to the sports organizations it hosted. Infantino took over 10 years ago. They used to be quite sort of openly corrupt in quite a simplistic way. So handing out brown envelopes to people who voted for a certain candidate or giving them share of TV rights in the back pocket, that kind of thing. Now it's sort of a bit more legalistic. But they've gone to the Gulf countries, mostly to. To first Qatar and then Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has put more money into football than anyone has really ever put into the game before. And so Infantino doesn't really care, you know, who you are, as long as you have loads of money. He will help you out, give you World Cups. And so he spent the last couple of years mostly basing himself in Miami and trying to get as close as possible to Donald Trump, to whom he gave that ridiculous at the time, and even worse, in hindsight, FIFA Peace Prize. So, yes, I mean, it's a horrendous organization, more legalist, more legally corrupt now than illegally corruptors in the past. And the only time people ever talk about that is around a World Cup.
Emma Nelson
Simon Cooper, author of World Cup Fever, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Paris. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. We head now to Madrid, where Monocle's associate editor for culture, Sophie Monaghan Coombs, is reporting from the city's Design Fair. Good morning, Sophie. Where are you? What are you up to?
Sophie Monaghan Coombs
Good morning, Emma. As you say, I am in Madrid reporting from the Design Fair format. It's the very first edition, but there's a lot happening in the city. There's also the biggest and most important international art fair in Spain, Arco Madrid, taking place this week. It's also the culmination of Madrid's Design Festival, which lasts for a month. And then there's other bits and Pieces like smaller art fairs as well. So there's lots going on.
Emma Nelson
So where do we want to start? Should we start with Arco Madrid?
Sophie Monaghan Coombs
Yes, let's start with Arco. As I say, it's the most important art fair that takes place in Spain. Like many art fairs, it is full of fabulous outfits and tiny handbags. As I saw yesterday, there's 200 galleries represented. It was very busy yesterday. Today, if you're trying to get a sense of the sort of players in the Spanish gallery world, it's really the place to come. They are all here, but there's also lots of representation from Latin America in terms of galleries, but also collectors. So I spoke to Jose Espar Seri, who curated a special Latin American art section. So maybe we can just hear a little bit of him. First of all,
Guarana Gurgi
it's really difficult to talk about an even art market in Latin America because it's composed of so many countries and there's different situations that are happening in each of them. So I think that the commitment from Arco to consistently have artistic voices from Latin America present in this fair is crucial because it really becomes sort of a bridge between their own local context and this context here in Madrid, but also by extension to Europe as well. Because I think that a lot of collectors, gallerists, curators that come and visit Arco don't necessarily go to Latin America to visit all these places.
Emma Nelson
Sophie, just listening to that, that idea of constructing a bridge between local context and the international market is absolutely key, isn't it?
Adam Ward
It?
Sophie Monaghan Coombs
Yes, completely. I think, you know, Jose explained it so well that these galleries in, you know, in Spain and collectors in Spain, but also in Europe aren't going to go to Brazil and Argentina and Peru and Mexico. Some of the places that, that we saw in the Arco at Arco yesterday. And so instead this fair is really a way of bringing them all into the conversation. And then for collectors in Latin America, which have has this rising collector base, they will go to Art Basel Miami, for example. But also I think Arco is a real kind of meeting place for those from the Spanish speaking art world. And it's really important. It's now in. It's been going for over 40 years. So I think it's really kind of cemented its role in being that bridge.
Emma Nelson
As you say, let's move away from art and towards design. Because it's forma, the big design fair in Madrid as well.
Sophie Monaghan Coombs
Well, yes. So this is the city's first collectible design fair and this was its very first edition So I think it's a really interesting moment for the design world in Madrid and further afield. So it brought about 50 exhibitors to Matadero, which is a contemporary art space that used to be an abattoir. So I always enjoy visiting there. It still has some of those plastic strip curtains that point to its, its former life. But I think one of the interesting things that they've done here is that they've. With those 50 exhibitors, some of them are galleries, but that's a very small proportion. And you also have individual designers who are exhibiting. Some of them are group shows. So it's a real mix. And I think as we're seeing kind of around the world, that the design worlds and the art market and the art world are kind of coming together and the lines are getting a little bit blurry. You can really see that here at former as well.
Emma Nelson
We 30 seconds, Sophie, in which to discuss what your highlight would be. Let's say we've got an afternoon in Madrid. Where are we heading?
Sophie Monaghan Coombs
Well, I think Forma is, yeah, as I say, it's a, it's a new thing and I would definitely recommend to go there. But I'd also point out the Contemporary Art Now Art Fair Madrid also takes place in Matadero. And that's a very kind of young fair. It's very different. It'll be a very different vibe to Arcosa. I would recommend there as well. And then obviously, if you're in Madrid, you have to go to the Prado and probably the Reina Sophia if you have time.
Emma Nelson
Indeed, that's a lot to do in an afternoon, but we'll try our best. Sophie Monaghan Coombs in Madrid, thank you so much for joining us on the Globalist. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers, Angelica Jopson, Anita Riota and Ryuma Takahashi. Our researcher was Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager was Christy o' Grady with editing assistance by Steph Chungu. After the headlines. More municipality music on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London and I'll be back with a Globalist tomorrow at the same time. Hope you can join me for that if you can. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, Goodbye. Thank you very much for listening.
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Theme: The War in Iran: The View from Cyprus & Trade Disruptions in Oman
This episode of The Globalist delves into the rapidly widening conflict involving Iran, its escalating military and economic dimensions, and the ripple effects on nearby states and the global economy. Monocle’s correspondents deliver on-the-ground insights from Cyprus and Oman, discuss diplomatic rifts, analyze trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and review the impact on Japan and global energy markets. Other topics include resilience within the international order, upcoming global sporting events, and cultural happenings in Madrid.
US Sinks Iranian Warship in the Indian Ocean
Concerns Over Broader Involvement
Local Sentiment
Response to Drone Attack
Regional Diplomacy & Alliance Friction
On the Ground in Oman
Economic Stakes
Global Dominoes
Geoeconomic Risks
Corporate Adaptation
Momentous Regional Shifts
Strains in Western Alliances
UN and Rule of Law
Energy Vulnerability
Energy & Economic Strategies
Trade Relationships
Art as a Bridge
Design Innovation
“It is a bit of what we were all hoping would not happen, but... expecting... the potential for this to spiral out.”
— Guarana Gurgi ([05:13])
“War has choked the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict has paralyzed the Gulf’s key oil route and it sent energy prices soaring. Oil has risen by 14% since this conflict began.”
— Indzi Rashid ([12:44])
“If the bases are to be there, the least that can be expected of the British government is that they be defended.”
— Tom Cleaver ([09:28])
“Japan is perhaps more so than other countries vulnerable to these kinds of shocks because of its dependence on external sources of energy.”
— Adam Ward ([32:01], [33:41])
“The current conflict is another example of the failure of the international order. There is no consultation with us anymore.”
— Yossi Meckelburg ([24:19] paraphrasing Mark Carney)
“We should hugely enjoy the World Cup and at the same time keep in our heads that the US is run by a would-be authoritarian, that they've launched an illegal war on Iran… The World Cup belongs to so many other Americans and fans.”
— Simon Cooper ([46:29], [49:54])
This episode paints a picture of a rapidly unfolding and unpredictable international crisis, with the Iran war affecting not only neighboring states but global trade, energy markets, and diplomatic relationships. The conversation moves from strategic anxieties in the Gulf and Mediterranean to energy-dependent economies like Japan, before shifting to reflections on the power of global sport and cultural bridge-building in Madrid. Throughout, the reporting combines direct voices from the field, expert analysis, and attention to the lived experience of ordinary citizens under threat of conflict.