The Globalist – The Year in Global Affairs

Monocle Radio, December 24, 2025
Host: Chris Chermak

Episode Overview

In this special Christmas Eve edition, The Globalist takes a comprehensive look at 2025’s geopolitical landscape. Anchored by Chris Chermak, a team of expert analysts and correspondents breaks down the year’s defining events: a turbulent second Trump presidency reshaping world politics, the ongoing war in Ukraine, the fraught but pivotal ceasefire in Gaza, and seismic shifts in Latin America. With first-hand analysis and on-the-ground perspectives, the episode offers a nuanced year-end review of global affairs.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Trump 2.0: Disruption and the American World Order

With Charles Hecker, Russia analyst & associate fellow, RUSI
[03:08–11:52]

• The US Presidency Turned Upside Down
  • The US historically acted as a guarantor of global stability; under Trump’s second term, the White House became “the center of global and national disruption.”
  • “Trump 2.0 has given us a very, very bumpy 2025.” (Charles Hecker, 03:30)
  • Reference to Project 2025: a controversial blueprint for sweeping government changes, whose existence Trump denies but insiders treat as influential.
• Staffing & Guardrails Removed
  • Trump’s team and cabinet selections: “all people who were chosen for their loyalty to President Trump rather than for their particular skill, experience, or expertise.” (05:09)
  • The “adults in the room” from his first term are gone, replaced by enablers, removing internal restraint.
• Muted Opposition
  • Charles notes a catastrophic Democratic post-election tailspin: “There hasn’t been a unified, strong or vocal voice to counter what President Trump is doing.” (06:25)
  • Opposition from prominent Democratic governors only began surfacing at year’s end.
• Immigration: Not Just Illegal, but Legal
  • Trump’s harsh immigration crackdown went further than expected: not only mass deportations, but substantial restrictions on legal immigration.
  • High-skilled visas, crucial for tech, “harder to get and vastly more expensive than… in the past.” (08:25)
  • Push to eliminate birthright citizenship, due for Supreme Court review in 2026.
• Russia Reset: Diplomatic & Commercial
  • Repeatedly attempted rapprochement with Russia—multiple summits, shuttle diplomacy—with a primary focus on commercial integration.
  • Trump’s logic: “Reintegrating Russia into the global economy should make it less of an enemy.” (10:20)
  • Charles’s warning: “We’ve heard exactly those words… following the collapse of the Soviet Union… and look where we are now.” (10:56)

Notable Quote:

“Washington, D.C. now is the center of global and national disruption.”
— Charles Hecker (03:40)

2. Ukraine: A Year on the Brink

With Julia Jen, Monocle writer & Ukraine expert
[12:44–21:36]

• Ukrainian Christmas Amid War
  • A look at shifting Ukrainian Christmas traditions, the agrarian soul of the culture, and yearning for peace.
  • “I think a super busy day of cooking, preparing the table, because Christmas Eve for us is the most important night of Christmastide.” (Julia Jen, 13:39)
• The Reality of War-Torn Daily Life
  • In cities like Kherson, drone warfare is a daily threat: “FPV drones going and hunting civilians down” and efforts to protect streets with fishing nets sent by French fishermen. (15:08)
  • Western Ukraine experiences relative normalcy and communal caroling.
• 2025’s Political Shock: The Oval Office Meltdown
  • The February 2025 meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, which “went completely off the rails,” shocked the Ukrainian public and leadership.
  • “There was a feeling among Ukrainians… perhaps he’ll even be good for Ukraine… Then we had that February Oval Office meeting… it was so pivotal...” (16:44)
  • Diminished urgency from Europe, and Trump’s unpredictability, led to wasted months of inaction and insecurity.
• Ukrainian Red Lines Shift Under American Pressure
  • Mounting US pressure led Zelensky to abandon NATO membership as an option: “That can’t be understated... that was absolutely a red line.” (18:50)
  • Ongoing diplomatic uncertainty about what peace might entail, with Ukraine forced to consider ceding land and other concessions.
• Stalemated Battlefield & Societal Strain
  • Small territorial changes, but little morale boost: “Soldiers who have been fighting… for four years straight... they haven’t really had a proper break.” (20:13)
  • Financial strains on the military and society, with EU asset transfers uncertain. The return of abducted children and POWs remains a priority.

Notable Quote:

“There is such immense pressure now from the American side for Ukraine to be giving up different things… When there’s such immense pressure, it’s very hard to know what the next day will bring.”
— Julia Jen (19:02)

3. Middle East: Gaza’s Ceasefire & Israel’s Reputation Crisis

With Julie Norman, associate fellow, Chatham House; co-author, The Dream and the Nightmare
[21:37–29:49]

• First-Person Accounts from the West Bank
  • Julie recounts empty streets and economic hardship in Bethlehem, its vibrancy sapped both by Israel’s separation barrier and the war removing tourism. (22:42)
• A Year of War, Ceasefire, and Fragile Peace
  • “The war took many different turns over this year,” with atrocities leaving lasting scars and only a “quasi positive note with the ceasefire.” (23:57)
  • Access to Gaza was largely impossible; the conflict’s spillover affected Lebanon, Iran, Yemen.
• Military Victory, Diplomatic Isolation
  • “Israel… flexed all muscles possible… but have not really taken the step to translate that into longer term diplomatic strategy.” (26:17)
  • Israel’s reputation: “the stronger Israel has become in the region, the worse its perception around the world.” (27:05)
  • International opinion, especially in Europe and the Global South, remains critically low.
• Israeli Domestic Politics Await Reckoning
  • Elections are due by next fall, with Netanyahu under fire for October 7 failings and hostage traumas.
  • “Israeli politics always has… the hazard that it’s very difficult to form a coalition… Even though there are many opposition parties, they haven’t really coalesced.” (27:59)
• Recognition of Palestine: Symbol or Substance?
  • New recognitions by the UK, France, Australia, and Canada helped prompt the ceasefire—but Julie questions their real-world impact absent policies to support a viable state. (29:02)

Notable Quote:

“The stronger that Israel has become in the region, I would say, the worse its perception around the world.”
— Julie Norman (27:05)

4. Latin America: Trump’s Monroe Redux and a Rightward Surge

With Oscar Guardiola Rivera, Professor, Birkbeck College
[30:16–37:51]

• “When the USA Sneezes, the Hemisphere Catches Fire”
  • Latin America dominated headlines as Trump revived the Monroe Doctrine mindset: aggressive regional focus, oil interests, anti-China posturing (31:18).
• Foreign Policy as Theatre, Not Strategy
  • Trump’s 2025 foreign policy “seems to be all about creating… a crisis that looks manageable,” less rooted in reality than spectacle for his domestic base. (33:11)
  • US actions are as much about “signaling his bases” and scapegoating the region for US problems (like the fentanyl epidemic) than about facts. (33:08)
• Rightward Political Shift—Imitation and Tensions
  • Success of right-wing leaders: Milei in Argentina, Bukele in El Salvador, Cast in Chile, possibly Machado in Venezuela.
  • Trump is “a very familiar figure for us in Latin America. He looks like every other Latin American caudillo.” (35:39)
  • Admiration for Trump mixed with anti-Latino rhetoric and a regional tradition of strongmen; “What we are witnessing… is that good old metaphor of the repetition of history; only the first time was tragedy, and indeed, this time looks like farce.” (37:51)
• Risks for the People
  • The US stance and alignment of local elites with Trump spell “really bad news for people on the ground,” threatening disasters fueled by militarization and resource exploitation.

Notable Quote:

“He [Trump] looks like every other Latin American caudillo… he was inspired by… Bolsonaro… and the paradox is that at the same time, his rhetoric is also, to a certain extent, anti-Latino. All that is coming back.”
— Oscar Guardiola Rivera (35:39)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “[Under Trump,] Washington, D.C. now is the center of global and national disruption.”
  — Charles Hecker (03:40)
• “There is such immense pressure now from the American side for Ukraine to be giving up different things… When there’s such immense pressure, it’s very hard to know what the next day will bring.”
  — Julia Jen (19:02)
• “The stronger that Israel has become in the region, the worse its perception around the world.”
  — Julie Norman (27:05)
• “He [Trump] looks like every other Latin American caudillo… All that is coming back. Only the first time was tragedy, and indeed, this time looks like farce.”
  — Oscar Guardiola Rivera (35:39, 37:51)

Key Timestamps

• 03:08 – Trump’s second term: disruption at home and abroad
• 05:09 – Cabinet loyalty over expertise: “no more adults in the room”
• 06:25 – Democratic opposition in disarray
• 08:25 – Drastic shifts in US immigration policy
• 10:20 – US–Russia rapprochement, commercial priorities
• 13:39 – Ukrainian Christmas traditions in wartime
• 15:08 – Civilian adaptation to daily drone attacks in Kherson
• 16:44 – The disastrous Trump–Zelenskyy Oval Office meeting
• 18:50 – Ukraine relinquishes NATO ambitions
• 22:42 – Economic collapse and division in Bethlehem
• 24:38 – Humanitarian fallout and limited access to Gaza
• 26:17 – Israel’s military “victory,” diplomatic fallout
• 27:05 – Crisis in Israel’s global reputation
• 29:02 – Recognition of Palestine by major Western states
• 31:18 – Latin America as Trump’s focus, revival of Monroe Doctrine
• 35:39 – Trump as “caudillo”; right-wing mimicry and history repeating

Conclusion

The Globalist’s year-end review paints 2025 as a period of fractured alliances, resurging strongman politics, and humanitarian duress. Trump’s “America First” redux leaves US institutions and the world order reeling, while Ukraine absorbs the brunt of diplomatic realignments and Gaza’s fragile peace exposes Israel’s global isolation. Latin America, meanwhile, finds itself swept along by familiar cycles of charismatic rule and fraught foreign intervention. Throughout, The Globalist’s guests deliver both granular detail and hard truths—reminding listeners that 2025’s turbulence may yet be only a prelude to the challenges and recalibrations ahead.