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A
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 22 January 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program.
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B
Coming up, people thought I would use force.
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C
I don't have to use force.
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A
I don't want to use force. I won't use force. President Trump says a possible deal covering the future of Greenland will achieve everything he wants and that he won't go ahead with the trade tariffs he threatened to implement impose on countries over their support for Greenland. We'll look ahead to a meeting of all 27 EU leaders in Brussels whose agenda is changing every few minutes and ask did a united Europe force Trump to retreat? Also ahead in the next 60 minutes.
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D
Now, Trump said that he won't be using force. That gives people time to breathe up, but we still have some things to be concerned about.
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A
That's the mayor of Nuuk telling us how being at the centre of a geopolitical tug of war is touching Greenlanders. We'll find out why Saudi television stations are mounting media attacks on the UAE will go through the papers and enjoy the culture news too. That's all coming up on the Globalist, live from London. First, a quick look at some of the other stories we're following today. Australia is holding a national day of mourning for the victims of the Bondi beach mass shoot. Several people are missing after a landslide struck a campsite on the north island of New Zealand following heavy rain. And three activists who ordered an ann who organised an annual Tiananmen vigil in Hong Kong before it was banned have gone on trial, facing national security charges. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, President Trump has said a possible deal covering the future of Greenland will achieve everything he wants. The US President has withdrawn his threat to levy further tariffs on European allies who'd opposed his desire to own the autonomous Danish island. Mr. Trump announced he'd agreed to what he called the framework of a future deal after the talks with the head of NATO. He said the agreement would last forever. So has Europe won? Well, I'm joined now from Amsterdam by Stefan De Vries, who's a European affairs correspondent for Euronews and BNR News Radio. Good morning, Stefan. Good to have you with us.
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E
Good morning, Emma.
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A
So do we know anything about this meeting, what this deal might be following this conversation with Mark Rutter?
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E
No. That's a short answer. No. It's a very peculiar situation. Of course, we saw a very weird speech by Donald Trump yesterday afternoon in Davos. It was sort of absurdist theater, but I was wondering, are we looking at Monty Python's Flying Circus or, like some Shakespearean tragedy? It was, of course, a rambling stew of half truth, fantasy and improvisation. And his promise, as we just heard, not to use force against. Against Greenland belongs in the same category. It was spoken, certainly, but it was not convincing at all. Apparently, after this speech, Donald Trump had a meeting with the Secretary General of the NATO, Mark Rutte. And in this discussion, there was a what has been described as a loose framework on Greenland and wider Arctic security. What it entails, it is completely unclear. But after this conversation, Trump announced that he would not go ahead with the planned import tariffs on 1 February for eight European countries. It is completely. Yeah. What can we make of it for the time being? Greenland is safe, Denmark is safe, but he is now on his way back to the United States. It may very well be that as soon as his plane lands in the United States, he will tweet something that is exactly the opposite on what has been discussed with Mark Rutter yesterday. So, yeah, I'm sorry, I cannot make anything sensible out of this meeting in Davos.
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A
We appreciate your efforts nonetheless, Stefan. I mean, in that backdrop, Donald Trump clearly has backed down when it comes to tariffs, and clearly he's backed down in terms of wanting to own Greenland, but he's not given up. And this is the setting in which 27 EU leaders meet today in Brussels to try to work out what is going on.
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E
Yes, absolutely. This meeting was planned earlier this week in reaction to the announcement of Donald Trump that he would impose new trade tariffs. The topic of this meeting tonight has not been changed. It is still. The spokesperson of the European Council said that it was still the latest developments in the transatlantic relations and its implications for the eu. Well, that was already on the table. That will still be on the table tonight. What is interesting, though, that it seems that the European unity that we have seen since last weekend and that mainly the role played by Germany and France to retaliate quite strongly, would Donald Trump impose any trade tariffs that that apparently has impressed somehow the American president. There were talks about the bazooka. That's an instrument or actually a package of instruments. The European Union has to retaliate against any country that tries more or less blackmail economically the European Union. And the mere fact of talking about this package, the bazooka apparently was enough to make Donald Trump back down. And that's a very interesting development in the European Union tone of voice that has really changed the first year today. Yesterday is one full year of Donald Trump. The second part, the first year, the last year, the Europeans always trying to calm down Donald Trump to be reasonable, to try to talk sense into his weird behavior. But this week something has really shifted and we immediate see the results. Donald Trump backs down on what he said on Sunday and has become something completely different on Wednesday night.
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A
This tone that changed in Davos when we heard Ursula von der Leyen. She told the European Parliament yesterday, the shift in the international order is not only only seismic, it is permanent. Europe is prepared to act with unity, urgency and determination. It felt like there was a bit of a wake up call going for Europe here, realising that actually the world really has changed and it is not going to change back anytime soon to a rules based order.
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E
Yes, I think you're right. Of course there have been many wake up calls over the past year when it comes to the transatlantic relations. But every time the Europeans push the snooze button, trying to thinking that they could sleep over, over the very complicated relationship with Washington. But I think we can now really conclude that the relation that we have known for over 80 years, since the end of the Second World War between Europe and the United States is really over. It is something structural. The relationship is no longer built on predictability. Trump uses economic tools as geopolitical weapons and that collides of course with Europe's preference and traditions for rule based cooperation. When Donald Trump started this new year, which is only three weeks old, but it already seems like it has been going on forever. But when he started this new year by saying I want to have Greenland and if I don't have it in a decent way, I will move into it with military force, the Europeans reacted with the rule of law. International law. But it is like explaining the rules of football to somebody who is playing chess or badminton, he is simply not listening. The end of the international law, the rule of international law is really over. And I think this week, indeed the wake up call was taken seriously and the European countries woke up and it will probably result in some kind of a statement tonight in Brussels when the 27 leaders will come together for dinner. I think something has really profoundly changed in the relationship between the US And Europe. We'll see where that will had us. But for now, there is European unity. And I think that's already something that.
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A
Well, very briefly, Ruta. Sorry, very briefly, Stefan, I mean, talking about Martin Rutter, being that you're on your way, just very briefly, the idea of European unity, how, how accurate an assessment is that given the fact that we have the French and we have the Germans very much being at the forefront of this. But if you have the likes of Giorgio Maloney in Italy, if you have Viktor Orban in Hungary, they are very keen not to antagonize Trump.
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E
That's true. But even in the populist or extreme right parties in Europe, you now see a shift. They also realize that Trump is no good news for Europe and that the whole, the wooing that Trump has been doing over the past year with the populist parties in Europe, that is not good news for nationalist parties because the United States is becoming a threat to European countries, also to the idea of European nation states. So it is no longer, I think, in their interest to defend Donald Trump. And you see that their reactions now this week are relatively, they really don't feel at ease with what is going on. So that strategy is no longer working. Of course, Donald Trump wants to influence European politics. We should not be naive about that. But we do see a shift even in the parties like Orban or Meloni in the way they see the American president. So, yeah, this is really a very interesting week in the history of geopolitics. We'll see where that will lead us in the next couple of days, probably, because with Donald Trump, you never know. At least it's never a dull moment. But, yeah, where are we going to? I'm not able to say that.
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Stefan de Vries, European affairs correspondent for Euronews and the BNR News radio in Amsterdam, thank you so much for joining me on the Globalist. Well, for more reaction to what's been happening, happening in Davos in the last couple of days, let's go to Davos itself to hear from our senior foreign correspondent, Carlotta Rebelo. She's out and about. A very good morning to you, Carlotta. I hope the cold's not too terrible.
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F
Good morning, Emma. At this point, the cold just feels the same day after day. So it's all good. I'm coping.
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A
Now, let us hear about this. We've Just been talking a moment ago about this possible deal that Donald Trump says will give him everything that he wants and is a forever deal. Do we know anything about what's been happening in Davos to do with this?
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F
No. We know here in Davos as much as everyone else, you know, this deal that was supposedly done in the shadows last night with Trump and some officials, everyone this morning is trying to find out the details. And of course, you start hearing rumors about what that means, particularly because the language that he used was not just about Greenland, but the Arctic region as a whole. So what does he mean by that? What we do know is that with Donald Trump, he just seems to like to leave people a bit on edge. And here in Davos, as we've been discussing throughout the week, all week has been about Trump. So this is another way that ahead of Zelenskyy's supposedly arrival later today, we start today trying to decode the messages coming from the US President in terms.
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A
Of the way that the American influence has permeated events. I mean, we've seen the fact that huge amounts of US Presence there and Donald Trump doing absolute, classic Trump, more than an hour long, rambling speech where he referred to Greenland as Iceland several times. But what has been the effect of having Trump land on Davos?
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F
Well, having Trump land on Davos was quite a spectacle. You know, we knew when he landed in Zurich, so we knew more or less when to expect the helicopter's arrival. And there was just a moment where you could just, the skies were just full and you could just hear helicopter after helicopter and they're landing in this heliport that, a temporary heliport that is made on the lake here in Davos that is frozen over. So you first hear the helicopters. When that quietens down, our studio is just off the promenade. You just start hearing all this commotion. And we go to the window to try to figure out what's happening. And then outside and you start seeing lots of vans, of security forces, ambulances, the streets starting to get blocked. Every avenue out of every street and avenue out of the Congress center was blocked. And then just the biggest motorcade I've ever seen in my life drove past. So he arrived, you know, with some momentum in terms of spectacle, in terms.
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A
Of what's been happening inside meetings. I mean, how have people been dealing with this? And what influence have the Americans had inside meetings? There was a problem with the ecb, wasn't there?
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F
Yes, there was a problem with the ecb. This was last night at a session that was also A dinner where the ECB chief walked out of the meeting because of them being critical. This was with the U.S. officials. And U.S. officials were being, in their views, overly critical of Europe, which led to her walking out. We also saw the US Sat dispute disputing with itself. And this was because of California Governor Gavin Newsom, who was in town and he was due to attend a session at USA House and was denied entrance to the house of his own country. Now we know Gavin Newsom shy away from butting heads with Trump and telling him when he does not agree with what the President is doing. So perhaps it's not that surprising, but nonetheless, refusing a sitting governor for mentoring in the pavilion that is put up by the state to represent the U.S. s interests abroad is a bit of a tough one, isn't it, Emma?
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A
It's not easy. Who else have you been talking to in the midst of all this?
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F
Yes. So I've been trying my best, despite all the Trump noise, to try to also find out what else is happening in Davos. I've had some really interesting conversations with our good friends at UBS about how the markets are reacting to all of this, but also with some people in the real estate sector. As you know, I have also my urbanist hat on and I spoke to a few urbanists. The former nightmare of Amsterdam was here. He's been collaborating with the World Economic Forum to launch a report on the nighttime economy. And this is to try to bring investors, you know, those business leaders who attend Davos to look at the nighttime as assets that they should invest in. But one interview that I want to highlight to you is I spoke with Heinz. Now, Heinz is the global real estate services firm and consultancy and they have been really good at figuring out what the market, the real estate market is doing and what are the trends set for the year ahead. I had the chance to catch up with their Chief Investment officer, David Steinbach, and their co CEO, Laura Heinz. Pierce and I wanted to talk to them about their global investment report and what do they see ahead for the next 12 months?
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G
Really what we're seeing is that this is really a reset moment for real estate. And real estate has been through a bit of a tough time over the.
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Last few years, but we believe that.
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The bottoming really was in 2025 and.
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H
We'Re very optimistic about how 2026 and beyond is looking.
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E
Yeah, and it really is entering into another vintage of investing. And as Laura was saying, we do believe that last year was the bottom. And this has been a long reset. Actually, actually for this industry. And I think it's easy to forget that a lot of people feel the overall economy, there's been obviously public equities has done well. Even fixed income has done well, the last bit. And so it's hard to see kind of how one industry within light of all that. It's been tough. And maybe today we can talk a little bit about some of those dynamics that we're seeing play out and why we think that's a great opportunity.
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A
Absolutely. And I know that one of the things that you've highlighted and that we're slowly starting to see globally is how, you know, the return to the office, it's manifesting itself, you know, in terms of real numbers and not just wishes. While the home and the living sector continues to grow, we are seeing growth as well in the office space. Why is that? And obviously, we know it's the recovery from the pandemic finally happening.
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I think it's that.
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I think also, you know, people are realizing that being together is critical and.
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It'S part of how we're successful.
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And, you know, I think that the.
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Office story was a bit overplayed, and.
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Companies are now really looking for that space that brings their employees together and creates the outcomes that they're looking to drive.
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So vacancy is actually way down, especially in the top tier of the office market.
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And, you know, we've been playing in.
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The office credit space over the last year or so, but we're starting to see potential opportunity for equity as well.
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In the office space.
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And so as we draft into equity, it is interesting to see a couple different dynamics. One, as Laura mentioned, we are starting to see rental rates, and some. This is very pocketed, very specific, but they are starting to go up. And some office buildings are commanding some of the highest rents cities have seen in some cases, which, again, a little bit unexpected when you rewind the tape from several years ago. Leasing fundamentals in several areas are getting better. Better for the. The best product. Now, the big dispersion between that.
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Right.
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There's winners and losers within that. And those projects that are not or dragging are probably going to get reinvented and rethought. But we focus on the quality and we focus on the. The higher end of that spectrum, and that is leasing surprisingly well in a lot of areas. And I think capital markets will come along that they're. They're letting fundamentals lead, and I think that fundamentals are leading now and capital markets will come behind that. It's just taking a minute. It's for a lot of reasons, including monetary policy and other things that are happening around us.
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But maybe what I'll say too is that while, you know, I think we are seeing opportunities in office, our highest.
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Conviction is in living and that's a global statement. You know, we are severely under supplied living. And, you know, I think that how.
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You play in that space is different.
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Depending on the market.
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For example, we're excited about student housing.
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In Europe, multifamily in the U.S. but.
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You know, that is our highest conviction.
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And you know, when it comes to industrial and logistics and retail, we also.
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See a lot of opportunity in those spaces.
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That was Laura Heinz Pierce and David Steinbach from Heinz. And if you want to hear more about that conversation and a few other things that have been piquing my Urbanist interest, you tune into the Urbanist later today, which will come out at 20 o' clock London time.
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A
We don't have to wait that long to hear you again though, Carlotta, do we, because you're hosting the briefing from Davos once again today.
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F
Yes, the last briefing coming from Davos today. That's at midday, London 1300 in Davos. Hopefully by then we will have a clearer indication on what this framework for Greenland actually means. But then also looking to Zelenskyy's arrival and a few other things, and I'm not going to reveal it all, you have to tune in.
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Can't wait. Thank you so much. Carlotta Rebella, Monocle senior foreign correspondent out and about at the World Economic Forum in Davos. You're listening to the Globalist. It's time now to get the view from Greenland. Andrew Muller has been in Nuuk all week and sent us this report.
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Avrak Olsson is mayor all at once of one of the smallest and largest municipalities in the world. She is most often thought of as the mayor of Nuuk, Greenland's tiny capital, just 20,000 people. But her remit also includes all of Communikafik Surmusuk, a colossal chunk of southern and eastern Greenland, 532,000 square kilometers of it, an area nearly the size of France. Total population including Nuuk, about 24,000 people, 4,000 or so of them only reachable by sea or air. Governing this jurisdiction is challenge enough without Earth's most powerful individual threatening, then not threatening, then sort of maybe threatening to try seizing it all by force. Monocle Radio's team in Nuuk caught up with the mayor at her office to find out how one adjusts from running one of the most remote local governments on Earth to becoming a focus of global attention in Nuke for Monocle Radio, I'm Andrew Muller. Back to you in London. Here's the mayor.
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It's been a roller coaster. I to say it mildly. It started with few people actually worried, like most people talked about it, but kept on with their daily life. But it's the opposite now. Everybody worries. A lot of people are anxious, have concerns, even children and especially the elder population. But now Trump said that he won't be using force. I think that gives people time to breathe up. But as I heard him, we still have some things to be concerned about.
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B
But have you in your job got concerned to the point where you've had to start having conversations about should we actually prepare for this? What do we actually do?
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D
The first thing we've done is also making sure that people doesn't feel alone, make sure that we all have the tools to talk to each other in the right way. We live in a society where we are very much on social medias, but the social media is in English, which is our third language. So we have a great part of the population who doesn't speak or understand English as fluently as I do, for example. So when you see images and maybe not understand the full the context of it, you start to imagine very bad things. So that's why we also had to try to give people tools to how to talk about the things that you see. Not many are prepared to things as fake news or AI.
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B
Are you noticing as well among local people here, much, I guess actual anger?
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D
Yeah, it is anger. It's a completely new anchor towards the American president and the policy he's going. When it was announced last year that J.D. vance was coming to Nuuk, people started a demonstration in Nuuk which turned out to be at the time the largest demonstration we ever had in Greenland. And that actually turned out to be something that we, I can guess that kept J.D. vance from nuke. He didn't come to Nuke because everybody was turning him down. And we thought that, okay, we already made the statement that that must be enough. But the anger has increased again after Trump.
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So I'm guessing Donald Jr. And Charlie Kirk didn't impress anybody when they were here?
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Not at all. The opposite.
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Is it true they were literally handing out money to people in the street?
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They were handing out money on the street and they even hand out money to very young teenagers and had them saying things pro America on screen to use in social medias. And that's why we also made guidelines for journalists as the municipality, it's our job to also protect our kindergartens and our schools. We had reporters but also influencers pro Trump coming to Nuuk and they just walked into classrooms and wanted to film young people, children and talk to them about this. And they did hand out hundred dollar bills on the street and, and that made people very angry.
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B
This is probably not something you anticipated having to deal with when you became mayor in 2022. If all this wasn't happening, what kind of things would you rather be working on?
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D
We would be working on more housing, better schools, more jobs outside of Nuuk. All the other regular projects, problems that you try to solve in any other municipality in the world.
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B
But are their problems unique or challenges? I guess unique to somewhere like Nuuk.
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D
The infrastructure. We are a very big island. We don't have roads between our towns. I have one village in south of Nuuk. It takes me 30 hours by ship to get there. I have another town in our municipality on East Greenland and it's so far away I have to go to Iceland before I can reach that town. Our municipality is the largest municipality geographically in the world and we are in the size of France. So yeah, I would say infrastructure is something that we deal with in a another level.
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B
But is there any sense at all in which this has been an opportunity? Because obviously enormous global attention very suddenly focused on Greenland.
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There's no doubt that we have more attention now and it's positive attention. The tourism was already growing in Greenland. We have very new and fresh eyes on us now and the world wants to learn about us and learn from us, hear our opinions and not just talk about us in a way they think we are and that's very new to us.
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That's Averak Olsson, the mayor of Nuuk, talking to Andrew Muller a little bit earlier on. For more from the team out in Greenland, tune in to the Monocle daily live from Nuuk at 18:00 clock London time. That's 16:00 o' clock if you are indeed in Nuuk. Tuning in. But still to come on today's Globalist, a familiar sound. There we'll hear all about the Netflix offer that Warner Brothers simply can't refuse. Stay tuned. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. 828 in zero, which is where we head now to have a look at today's newspapers. Joining us from Studio 4 at our Zurich headquarters is Alexandra Tertzio, CEO of the Geopolitical firm Magpie Advisory and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Good morning, Alexandra. How's Zurich looking this morning?
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G
Good morning, Emma. It is grey and foggy, but cheery here at the studio.
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A
So glad to hear it. Right, we are going to put everything that is happening up the road in Davos and over in Greenland to one side and focus on some other news. So one story that we've noticed that's been knocking around is, is Ethiopia is building Africa's largest airport.
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H
Yes.
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G
Quite exciting. And happy to put Davos on the side for the time being. After some delays at the end of last year, Ethiopia recently broke ground on what is set to be indeed Africa's largest area airport, potentially the continent's most ambitious aviation project ever. Completion is expected by by 2030. The airport will be located about 25 miles southeast of Addis, and when fully operational, it's expected it'll be able to handle more than 100 million passengers per year, which is quite a bit. Financing at the moment is coming from Ethiopian Airlines with support from the Azure African Development Bank. And talks are also ongoing to bring in more funding from the European and African development banks, Asian development banks, excuse me, as well as the U.S. development Finance Corporation. In total, it's estimated that some $10 billion are needed to see the project through. So every penny counts. And the design, somewhat interestingly, is actually being led by Zaha Hadid, architect architects under Patrick Schumacher, who I think monocle and Monocle design listeners in particular will know has been integral to the firm since the late 1990s. And I love this. And this caught my eye for many reasons, one of this being Schumacher's approach to these kinds of urban projects, seeing design not just as form, but as vehicles for social change. I remember an episode, a podcast episode with him way back. I believe it was a theory of architecture. And it stuck with me after all these years. And he made the point that good design should spring from some theory of social dynamics. So very recently you had the director of aviation for Zaha Hadid describing airports in general as places that bring together people and bridge national divides, and referring to this airport project in Ethiopia in particular as one that they hope will connect every region of the continent as Africa's global gateway. So at once acknowledging this kind of, of the intra and inter state challenges that the continent continues to face, but also speaking to a kind of Pan African vision that many both in and outside of the continent really aspire to. So it's an exciting project. It's one worth watching for its grandeur, for its kind of signature Zaha Hadid forms. If you haven't seen some of the visualizations, they're really quite exceptional. But also worth watching I think, because it really significant signals. Africa, and to an extent, Ethiopia, is growing an aspiring role as a global hub, politically, culturally and economically. So an exciting time loads.
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A
You have said an absolute enormous amount of super information and we're wondering where to take it next. I mean, the fact is, okay, let's talk about Ethiopia. Ethiopian Airlines, the big carrier for Africa and placing, you know, creating such an enormous modern hub will have a very, very large ripple effect over long distances, won't it?
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G
Oh, absolutely. Both for the continent and as you say, globally. I mean, Ethiopia has long been setting itself up to sort of be a powerhouse, not only in the Horn of Africa, but across the continent. It's been attracting lots of environments, investment from Asian, the Asian, Asian players, the Middle east increasingly, also the US and Europe have their eye on Ethiopia. So economically it has a huge ripple effect. And also in terms of tourism and travel, the country is certainly not without its challenges. You have ongoing conflicts between the various ethnic groups. But I think part of the hope of the government is that that this kind of a project will certainly not ameliorate those tensions, but will go some way in, let's say, elevating Ethiopia in a different way in the continent and on the global stage.
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A
And indeed, and just looking at the idea of the architecture project and the scale of all this, it is being said, we're listening to this, reading this in Dizzin, which has a very, very good article on it, well worth reading. The largest aviation infrastructure project in Africa, Africa's history. And it's four times larger than the capacity of Ethiopia's current main airport opening in what, the next five or six years time. The ambition of this and indeed the beauty of it is breathtaking.
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G
Absolutely, absolutely. So fingers crossed that it pans out. As we know, some infrastructure projects in Africa don't always go the way expected. So fingers crossed that this goes continues to go in the right direction because as you said, Emma, the implications of this would really be quite significant.
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A
Okay, let's move on to an article from the nation in Africa. And this is a story to do with the Kenyan Refugees act from 2021. What's the story, please, Alexandra?
- [34:43]
G
Yes, it's actually Quite another, quite interesting one from the African region. The law, the Refugees act, has actually recently been revised and it has has given political participation rights to refugees in Kenya's Kakuma refugee camp near the Kenya Somalia border. And that camp is one of the country's largest, with over 185,000 refugees from more than 20 countries. The act in its 2021 version already emphasized refugee participation, integration into Kenyan society also, so access to public services. But what these new revisions now do is actually recognize political voice at the local level. So under the revised framework, refugees in the Kakuma camp specifically can now petition the local government where the camp is located, on various issues, sanitation, others that affect their day to day lives. And until just recently or until now, that kind of political engagement required a Kenyan national id, which effectively barred refugees from any kind of political participation. But now under the new rules, a new refugee ID card will suffice. And the Refugee Consortium of Kenya, which is the NGO that was very much behind these revisions, is now encouraging also other refugee hosting counties in Kenya to adopt similar measures. And the implications of this could be potentially significant as well. As of late last year, Kenya hosts around 830,000 refugees, and depending on which data you look at, that makes it either the fourth or fifth largest refugee hosting country in Africa, after Egypt, Sudan, Uganda and on some counts Chad. Most of the refugees in Kenya are from Somalia, South Sudan, the DRC and Burundi. The camp itself, the Kakuma camp, that is affected by these changes most immediately. Most refugees there are South Sudanese. And this is really interesting, I think, because of what it signals first. I think it reflects the idea to an extent that refugee camps are not kind of temporary, politically static spaces, but communities with legitimate civic interests. And it also seems to challenge the assumption to an extent that political agency is not strictly tied or doesn't necessarily have to be tied to citizenship, suggesting that it might instead be grounded in presence, contribution, shared local realities. And this revision too, just very quickly is part of a broader plan that the Kenyan government introduced last March, which called the Sherica Plan, which actually aims to integrate all of the 830,000 plus refugees into Kenya's national systems by 2035. So it's an interesting initiative, it's an interesting project. Obviously there are lots of questions around administrative capacity, around the public acceptance, even whether, you know, refugees themselves will want to integrate and embrace such deeper integration in this way, or perhaps will be more inclined to protect their national identities. So a lot of unknowns. But in this day and age, I think, Emma, where you know, protracted displacement is increasingly the norm. I think this offers an interesting case study of what political participation means and refugee policy.
- [38:14]
A
Alexandra, we have But a scant 30 seconds to talk about the third and final item you wanted to talk to us about, which is potato. Potatoes.
- [38:23]
G
Yes, potatoes. Apparently the jacket potato is, is making a comeback, according to the UK Telegraph and on a quick perusal of the lifestyle and cooking pages across papers in the UK Poland, the US Elsewhere, carbs seem to be leading the way. So either that's winter and comfort food or comfort in these uncertain geopolitical times.
- [38:47]
A
Or just because potatoes are brilliant. Alexandra CEO, CEO of the geopolitical firm Magpie Advisory. Thank you so much for joining us on THE Globalist. Here's some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. Australia is holding a national day of mourning for the victims of the Bondi beach mass shooting. Flags are being flown at half mast ahead of a commemoration event at Sydney Opera House. Several people are missing after a landslide struck a campsite on the north island of New Zealand. It follows heavy rain. Images from the scene show damaged vehicles piled up. Three activists who organized an annual Tiananmen vigil in Hong Kong before it was banned have gone on trial. They face national security charges. And A Republican led U.S. house of Representatives panel has recommended contempt proceedings against Bill and Hillary Clinton. It follows their refusal to testify before a congressional committee investigating the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. And those are the headlines on THE Globalist. It's 1539 in Taipei, 8:39am in Zurich. Now the continuing threat from China has demonstrated that Taiwan needs to beef up its ability to defend itself. But how exactly Taipei will do this and how it'll pay for it have become much harder questions to answer. The Taiwanese parliament itself is deadlocked over the matter. So I'm joined now from Taipei by William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst for the International Crisis Group. Good afternoon, William.
- [40:25]
C
Thank you for having me again.
- [40:26]
A
Welcome back to Monaco Radio. Now the New York Times has been covering this story and has been saying that the Taiwanese parliament is finding itself in a political quagmire. What does that mean?
- [40:39]
C
This basically means that the the opposition led parliament has been doing everything they can using every check and balance power that they possess to undermine the government's agenda, which is trying to focus on enhancing Taiwan's defense budget in the light of pressure coming from Washington since Trump took office last year and at the same time proposing their own prioritized bills that are essentially going to weaken the central government's budgeting power, and at the same time, you know, empowering the opposition parties and also the legislature to actually have more, even more power to actually try to undermine and constrain the government's ability to make policies and put forward their own agenda.
- [41:32]
A
So is this politics or principles at play here, here?
- [41:37]
C
So the opposition party has been arguing that they are using their combined majority to make sure that the current government does not get whatever that it wants without any review coming from a third force. And they always have been framing their efforts as a part of exercising the regular legislative power. But on the other hand, the central government has been repeatedly protesting these, either the controversial bills proposed by the opposition or the opposition's refusal to consider even reviewing any of the defense budget that has been proposed by the government. And they have even accused the opposition party of basically paralyzing the Constitutional Court because since last year, the eight candidates that the government has put forward for review for the grand justices on the to fill all the seats on the Constitutional Court has not been approved by the opposition party.
- [42:40]
A
So tell me a little bit more about the international context of this, because the United States has been giving or has been handing Taiwan large amounts of funding in order to beef up its military, but there isn't nonetheless, that pressure from the Trump administration that Taiwan needs to stand up on its own two feet. Where does Taiwan stand with this?
- [43:03]
C
So the Taiwanese government recognized the sense of urgency that Taipei, you know, needs to start to really demonstrate its will to defend itself by dramatically enhancing the defense budget. Last year, the president here already mentioned and announced Taiwan's defense budget this year is going to be 3.25% of the GDP. And by 2030, he expects Taiwan's defense budget to be 5% of its GDP, basically matching the NATO model. However, because of the domestic political constraints, and at the same time, the opposition parties harbor greater skepticism about the Trump administration's commitment to maintain the same defense and support for Taipei. So they've been, in fact, arguing that Taiwan should consider reconsidering, building closer ties with Beijing in order to actually de risk from the uncertainty that might come from the Trump administration. And at the same time, they've been accumulating, using the central government's efforts to try to enhance the defense budget at U.S. behest as a way of turning Taiwan into a powder keg. And that rhetoric has been also picked up by Beijing and repeated by Chinese government and also the Chinese state media. So I think at this point, this issue has become very polarized and partisan, and it's also been paired up with the increased military pressure coming from China that is intended to try to scare and intimidate the Taiwanese public for not considering supporting the government's effort of enhancing Taiwan's defense capabilities.
- [44:50]
A
William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst for the International Crisis Group, on the line from Taipei. Thank you for joining us on Monocle Radio. Iq, EQ and AI three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence all to elevate you. UBS bank banking is our craft. It's 11:45 in Dubai, 7:45am here in London. Now. Why are the media in Saudi Arabia adopting a more aggressive stance towards the uae? Reports on the Saudi channel El Akbariya have accused Abu Dhabi of committing human rights abuses and paying Yemeni separately to campaign against the kingdom. Well, in Zaman Rashid is Monocle's Gulf correspondent, joins me on the line from Dubai now. Good morning, Indy.
- [46:06]
B
Morning, Emma.
- [46:07]
A
And this is all to do with.
- [46:08]
B
Yemen, isn't is all to do with Yemen and what has been playing out in Yemen over the the last few months. But what we have seen be playing out in Yemen over the last few months has fairly kind of been contained to the ground in Yemen. But it seems that recently, particularly I'd say over the last couple of months and more so in recent days there has been a war of words across media, in particular Saudi state media where they launched an unusually strident attack on the United Arab Emirates, accusing it of human rights abuses and backing hostile actors in Yemen. And I think this marks a significant rupture between two of the Gulf's closest allies, Emma, Saudi Arabia and the UAE playing out not on the battlefield in Yemen, but between the sovereign states and across news bulletins, television broadcasts and social media feeds. Riyadh's media, particularly on state owned channels like you mentioned, Al Akbaria, has aggressively highlighted alleged UAE run secret prisons in Yemen and framed Abu Dhabi's tactics as dangerous and and destabilizing. Now in turn, Emirati commentators and influencers, especially on social media platforms, have pushed back. They've accused Saudi outlets of an orchestrated campaign to undermine the UAE's reputation. But the rift, as we've mentioned, has roots in Yemen's civil war where Saudi Arabia and the UAE initially joined a coalition against the Iranian aligned Houthi movement. But on the ground their interests have have diverged massively. The UAE's backed the STC the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen's south. While Saudi Arabia has supported Yemen's internationally recognized government, eventually reclaiming key territories and prompting the SEC's collapse and ultimately the withdrawal of the UAE's military presence in Yemen just last week. So this is not just about what's actually happening on the ground in Yemen. It's gone far beyond that and has turned into kind of analysis and media commentary on state owned channels, which is now causing the rift to deepen.
- [48:37]
A
And just explain to us a little bit more about who seems to be winning this media war. I mean, you talked about the fact that it's Saudi state media, but then you also have the UAE influences, two completely different ways of going about communication nonetheless, both very, very influential. Who's coming out on top?
- [48:55]
B
I think you can see it as a bit of a war inside the newsrooms. Right. I think what makes the rift unusual is that, you know, as we mentioned, it's not just diplomatic or military fallout, it's actually how state media has become the arena where the conflict is being forced. So the Saudi news channels are openly airing accusations of human rights abuses and political betrayal at the uae, a departure from what is probably quite usually a careful and dignified tone that Gulf allies traditionally maintain with one another. And the UAE response has been much more concentrated in social media and private messaging channels like WhatsApp, where they're leveraging influencers rather than state broadcast. One thing you've got to remember out here, Emma, is that watching TV news is still very much a done thing. It's on in a lot of homes across the gcc, particularly in countries like Saudi Arabia. And here in the uae, Emirates will still watch a lot of TV news. I guess unlike back in the UK in particular and other parts of Europe where TV news is probably seen as dying, here, it's still very much a way that people get their news. And with state broadcasters, it's interesting how that news in particular is portrayed. I think think why this, this matters is because obviously it's a narrative issue. State media in the Middle east are not independent arbiters of fact, but kind of instruments of policy shaping and, and stoking perceptions as much as reporting the realities on the ground. And I think this story challenges a pretty common assumption in Western media discourse that rival narratives primarily come from, from here the opposite is true. Traditional state broadcasters are leading the charge and normalizing kind of political confrontation on open channels and, and out there on, on social media.
- [51:02]
A
And this is unusual, isn't it, insofar as, I mean, you mentioned the fact that the way that things are normally done are quite eloquent, elegant and quite discreet and quite respectful. But this is a change.
- [51:14]
B
It is a change and that's, and, and that's because of the, the nation, the, of this conflict in, in Yemen. It's, it's overspilled to just what is happening on the ground in Yemen. And I think social media has played a huge role in this as well because people are now witnessing what's actually happening on the ground. People are using their voice to actually talk about what's going on in Yemen in particular. And I think the fact that, that this is two Gulf heavyweights who are usually very aligned, are usually in constant conversation, who usually work very close together. They both accepted Donald Trump's proposal to be on the peace board for Gaza. It'll be interesting to see whether they actually work together on that. But now they're in a war of words and in a war of the newsroom. I think one important note as well, speaking to some colleagues out here, foreign media operations have been caught up in this shift as well. Al Arabia, which is the Saudi backed news network, has long had a presence in the uae, particularly its English language operations. Now it's not fully relocated its headquarters to Saudi Arabia despite orders to do so. And it's my understanding now that because of this conflict and because of this heightened media tension between the UAE and Saudi Arabia that they are rushing through that process to relocate the whole Saudi backed channel out of the UAE and back home into Riyadh.
- [52:59]
A
Intaman Rashid Monocles, Gulf correspondent on the line from Dubai. Thank you for joining me on the Globalist. Time to finish the programme with some culture news. Joining me in the studio by joining me in the studio is, I should say, Sophie Monaghan, Coombs Monocle's associate editor for culture. Good morning, Sophie, how are you?
- [53:22]
H
Good morning. I'm very well, Emma. Although it's very dark and drizzly outside. I'm pretty, pretty chappy.
- [53:28]
A
It's winter, it's London, it's what happens, right? Tell us what's happening in the world of culture. We teased ahead a little while ago about how Netflix is back in the headlines again with the takeovers.
- [53:40]
H
Yes, this is a really big story in the entertainment business for obvious reasons. And you know, it really became this battle between Paramount, Skydance and Netflix to buy Warner Brothers studio at the end of last year. And just this week it has been said that Netflix has changed its offer. It was about 80% cash and 20% share shares. It's now become an all cash offer. And what this means is that it kind of gives confidence to investors in going ahead with this deal, but it also moves the deadline earlier. So it would have been a conversation for shareholders in the summer, in August, but now this pushes it forward. And so we should have a decision in a couple of months in April.
- [54:29]
A
And this sweetening is as a result of, of this hostile bid from Paramount Skydance as well. And it is absolutely pushing the agenda much faster, isn't it?
- [54:38]
H
Yes, it's become really, really competitive. And Paramount are being very bullish with trying to acquire Warner Brothers. And I think the interesting thing about this is, as I said, it will go ahead. There will be a vote in April, but it might not be the end of this competition. And the end of this story, the Paramount CEO David Ellison, obviously the son of Larry Ellison, has already announced that he's pursuing a lawsuit. And it might be, you know, Trump has said that he might step in, depending on the outcome of the vote, whether, you know, whether Netflix goes ahead. He might then become personally involved. So I don't think we'll see the end of this story even if Netflix, Warner Brothers, do decide to vote and go ahead with the Netflix deal.
- [55:29]
A
Let's look at Opera Now. The Met in New York is talking about layoffs and pay cuts. I mean, things got very, very tight after the end of the pandemic. Lots of people lost their jobs, lots of budgets were cut. You saw small, you saw smaller and more, dare I say, discreet, less ambitious sets and things like that. And this announcement that more job cuts are on the way is tough, isn't it?
- [55:53]
H
Yes, it is difficult. And as you say, it is. You know, it really started with the pandemic. And I think the problem for the Met Opera is it's just never really recovered. So it has an annual operating budget of about $330 million. And now, as you say, that has been these announcements for a round of layoffs, pay cuts. They're also reducing the programming. One of the interesting things about this story is that the Met had actually struck up a deal in September with Saudi Arabia that the Met would kind of relocate just outside of Riyadh every winter for a few weeks for a period of 5 years to perform there. And this deal just hasn't quite gone through. And it's worth $200 million. So it's was going to be really, really important for the institution, and it just hasn't come through. It's slightly up in the air. And because of that, it's led to this round of cuts.
- [56:50]
A
And it absolutely emphasizes the global interdependence of opera houses that if you have one production, it has to be able to fit in New York, Paris, Milan, London. The idea that nothing can be entirely independent anymore, everybody has to support each other is this huge thing. So if you have something like the Met saying, okay, we're going to scale back our productions, one wonders what the effect is going to be across the rest of the world.
- [57:19]
H
Yeah, it is a really interesting question. And just yesterday I interviewed an opera composer who has a new opera in Scotland which is performing in Glasgow and Edinburgh, and it's based on the great Wave, the Hokusai print. So it was really interesting, and it was interesting to watch talking to Tim because he's obviously, you know, so passionate about opera and, and so supportive of it as an industry. But I think it is. It is struggling a little bit with getting in audiences and particularly getting in younger audiences. So you do rely on tourists and people coming to go to the Met, for example, rather than having it as something that they do regularly as. As part of their week.
- [57:59]
A
And indeed, the way that things are advertised now is that you see things on social media saying, come to the Royal Opera House. It is. It is a big jump, isn't it?
- [58:06]
H
Yeah, definitely. And I don't know if, you know, social media has that ability to pull in new crowds. Opera is a demanding art form. You know, it is incredible, but it demands a lot of the people performing on it and it does demand a lot of audiences. And I think with the change in how we consume media and entertainment, it is maybe struggling because of that.
- [58:26]
A
Yes. You're sitting in the dark for three hours. Sophie Monaghan, Coombs Monocle's Associate editor for culture. Thank you so much for joining. Joining me once again in the studio. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers Angelica Jobson and Monica Lillis. Our researcher was Anneliese Maynard. Our studio manager was Elliot Greenfield, with editing assistance from Lily Austin. After the headlines, More music on the way. The briefing's live from the World Economic Forum in Davos at midday in London. And the Daily is still in Nuke in Greenland. The Globelist is back at the same time time tomorrow. Hope you can join me for that if you can. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson. Goodbye. Thank you very much for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter, delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.