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Georgina Godwin
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 13th October 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
Caller/Guest
Hello.
Georgina Godwin
This is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, the trade war between China and the US has reignited. We'll analyze the situation between the world's two largest economies. Then we'll be live in Tel Aviv, where crowds are gathered to welcome home Israeli hostages. Finland and the US have signed an icebreaker deal. Our correspondent in Helsinki will have the details. We'll ask what's next for Peru as the nation appoints a new president, the seventh in less than a decade. We'll cross to Cameroon, where the 92 year old President there looks as if he may have won in yesterday's election.
Guy Delaunay
Plus, portentous polls in Kosovo toil over oil in Serbia. And my part in today Pogacha's stunning cycling season coming up in a roundup from the Balkans with me, Guy Delaunay.
Georgina Godwin
And we'll reflect on the life of the actress, movie maker and writer Diane Keaton, who's died at the age of 79. That's all ahead here on the Globalist, live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Donald Trump is in Israel today and will go to Egypt later when negotiations over a long lasting peace are ongoing. France's reappointed Prime Minister, Sebastian Le Cornu has unveiled his cabinet and now faces a race to pass the budget. And Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for more women to take senior roles in government and public life. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now there's a familiar chill in the air between Washington and Beijing. China has expanded its export limits on rare earth minerals, which are vital for everything from electric cars to weapons systems. Donald Trump has responded with threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and new restrictions on software and aircraft parts. He's also said there's no reason to meet Xi Jinping later this month. So are we seeing the end of this uneasy truce between the world's two largest economies. Well, to answer that, I'm joined now by Jonathan Femby, journalist and former editor of the South China Morning Post. Jonathan, it's lovely to have you back on the show. What's driving this latest escalation between the two countries?
Jonathan Femby
Well, they've been pursuing low level, secret, relatively low level, cabinet level, cabinet secretary level, let's just say, meetings for some time. And these have been making quite a lot of progress. And now we seem to be getting the two leaders, Trump and Xi, jockeying for leverage and position before a meeting they are due to have on the fringes of the APEC summit in South Korea at the end of this month. And I think all this is really advanced work on their part for positioning before that meeting.
Georgina Godwin
Do you think that meeting will actually go ahead, though?
Jonathan Femby
I think it will. I think Xi wants to go ahead with meetings with the Americans. That's clearly been his direction of travel. And for me, Trump, it's very mercurial. I mean, his behavior is very mercurial. As you just said, he issued these big threats at the end of last week and then he put out a tweet on his social media platform taking a kind of much softer line with China and saying, well, Xi just had a bad moment with the rare earths.
Georgina Godwin
Decision and Beijing has responded over the weekend to Trump. What's the latest coming out of there?
Jonathan Femby
Well, they, I mean, as always, China says anything America does, we will do better. They will respond with strong measures and they denounce the United States for two faced approach to trade talks in which they, of course, China insists that it is entirely straightforward and honest.
Georgina Godwin
Why do these rare earth minerals carry so much weight within global politics?
Jonathan Femby
Well, because China has, this is one of the spheres in economic spheres in which China has concentrated and moved ahead certainly of the United States and of the west as a whole. Deng Xiaoping, this goes back to the 1980s and Deng Xiaoping, who famously said while visiting a rare earths area in northern China, he said the Middle east has oil, but China has rare earths. And China actually has only, only in inverted commas, about 60% of the rare earths on the globe. But what it has done is to move far ahead in processing these minerals, which are vital for all kinds of modern technology, which is a very environmentally toxic enterpr. And China has gone ahead and now produces some 90% of the world's rare earth minerals.
Georgina Godwin
And how dependent is the west on China? Because there are, I mean, there's still 40% available elsewhere.
Jonathan Femby
There is available, but A lot of that is processed through China and it's a question of separating the rare earths from the minerals in which they're embedded. And that is very, very environmentally dangerous. And a lot of countries have closed down their processing plants because of that, because of ecological reasons, whereas China has shot on ahead. And a lot of what we use every day, let alone military applications, which you referred to, is dependent on supplies from China. So this is a real choke hold by China, which America has belatedly become aware of and is starting to open up rare earth mines and undertake the processing too. But that will take years to come, really on stream.
Georgina Godwin
How are the markets reacting to this? How serious is the financial impact likely to be for all concerned?
Jonathan Femby
Well, the markets reacted badly at the end of last week and Asian markets are again affected today because there is a lot of fear that Xi and Trump in seeking a big deal, which I think both really want, at the end of the day, they will harm other economies around them.
Georgina Godwin
Now, the aircraft maker Boeing has been dragged into the dispute. What are the risks for the company if aircraft parts become part of the trade war as threatened by Trump?
Jonathan Femby
Well, China has been trying to launch its own commercial airliner planes for quite a long time now without much success. This is one of the areas where China is not dominating the world, it must be said, the manufacturing areas. And so it buys a lot of product from Boeing, Airbus and other foreign suppliers, and a lot of equipment too, to go into its own plane. So if it got caught up in the trade war, this would be quite serious for Boeing.
Georgina Godwin
What's driving Trump on this?
Jonathan Femby
Well, I think, and I may be proved wrong, of course, over the years, but this is one of the areas where you have to take Trump seriously, but not literally. I think he wants at the end of the road a big deal with China to divide the the world in a sense, between them while building up American strength. And he thinks he can do that. Unfortunately, that involves turning back America to the kind of manufacturing that China does. And I doubt that that is going to take place.
Georgina Godwin
Jonathan, if tensions continue to rise, what kind of fallout could the rest of the world expect?
Jonathan Femby
Well, it could expect a seizure up of trading routes. I mean, American Chinese trade is important, but it's surpassed by China's trade with ASEAN and with the European Union, according to the latest figures for last year. And really the fallout could be that countries in both ASEAN and the European Union will be forced to take sides at one point if the trade war gets worse between China and America. And that could be very harmful for them, particularly if you see the example of Germany, which has invested hugely in China. Its companies are very dependent on the Chinese market and they're already suffering.
Georgina Godwin
Jonathan, thank you very much indeed. That's Jonathan Fembi there, journalist and former editor of the South China Morning Post. This is the Globalist now to Tel Aviv, where there are reports that the first seven Israeli hostages held by Hamas have been handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross in Gaza. Also on the way, US President Donald Trump, who'll be addressing the Nasset later today and then heading to Sharma to continue peace negotiations. Well, joining me from Tel Aviv is the Haaretz journalist Alison Kaplan Sommer. Many thanks for coming to us on such a busy day. Alison, what's the atmosphere like where you are?
Alison Kaplan Sommer
I would say ecstasy. This is going to be a day of first of all, joy and celebration with the return of the hostages. But then there's also the knowledge that later on in the day there's going to be the return of bodies of killed hostages. So right now people are really enjoying the part where they're celebrating. These families who have just become really household names and familiar figures on every television screen begging for a deal to be made to bring their loved ones home crying and in such desperation to see them smiling, to see them celebrating, it's really a wave of happiness that's sweeping over the whole country. I have to update your introduction. You said in the hands of the Red Cross, but just moments ago, everyone was informed that they had been transferred from the Red Cross to the IDF forces. So they're now officially back in Israeli hands. The first seven of the full 20 that are expected to be returned this morning. The rest of them are expected in about an hour to be transferred. They're apparently in different areas in Gaza and that's why the transfer has been broken into two parts.
Georgina Godwin
And how does the Palestinian prisoner release work? What's the timeline for that?
Alison Kaplan Sommer
Well, that already began yesterday. Last night, the preparations for them to be transferred and handed over and that is also expected to be had to happen in the next 24 hours. There were some last minute actually glitches in the list and some tweaks and there was a feeling that just a moment of nervousness that this could stand in the way of the deal. But apparently the list has now been finalized and they're organized to go.
Georgina Godwin
Of course, Donald Trump is expected. What kind of welcome can he look forward to?
Alison Kaplan Sommer
A hero is welcome. The Knesset is all prepared to receive him. They're handing out Red Hats in the Knesset saying Donald Trump, the president of peace, so he is really going to get a hero's welcome here. He has made happen what Israelis, the majority of Israelis in poll after poll wanted, what Israelis have been, week after week, hundreds of thousands of them on the street begging for. And that is for Prime Minister Netanyahu to go to the negotiating table, end the war and find a way to, first and foremost, get the hostages home.
Georgina Godwin
What will the end of the war mean for Netanyahu, though, personally?
Alison Kaplan Sommer
Well, there's going to be a reckoning, first of all, you know, the end of the war. It's also going to be a process of, you know, full withdrawal, complete withdrawal. So it's, you know, not happening. Nothing's happening overnight. The summit in Sharm El Sheikh coming up is going to determine the future of Gaza. So all of that is still yet to play out and happen. But what Netanyahu is going to immediately begin doing is position himself politically for the new elections, trying to frame these past two years into some sort of a victory and some sort of an accomplishment for himself, focusing obviously on the positive moments of the successful deterioration, if not destruction, of the nuclear facilities in Iran, the decimation of Hezbollah. He's going to start building a narrative in which he has accomplished things, which is going to, in his eyes, hopefully focus the public's attention away from the failures that led to October 7th and what many people see as the unnecessarily long war that it could have been ended a year ago or more if he had taken some of the proposals of the Biden administration, which were not unlike the deal that he's taken now.
Georgina Godwin
Do you get any sense of the mood in Gaza, particularly around these reports of violence between Hamas and powerful clans there?
Alison Kaplan Sommer
I think for the people of Gaza, I mean, the key moment for them happened over the weekend when the bombs stopped dropping, the ceasefire. I mean, these are people whose lives have been so decimated, who are living in such desperation. Just the idea of being able to go from point A to point B without risking your life and having bombs dropped on you. Many people have flooded up to the north to return to their homes from their refugee status in the south. Some are obviously met with completely destroyed homes. But I think that there's that wave of exaltation in Gaza that the bombs, for now, have stopped and the firing has stopped. But, yes. So these militias, some of which the Israeli army sort of recruited to foil Hamas, are now clashing with Hamas. Hamas, now that the IDF has withdrawn from at least a lot of the Gaza Strip is now seeking revenge against these militias, or these militias are going into offensive mode in order, you know, anticipating that Hamas is going to go after them. So it's a very unstable situation there. There was actually a very prominent journalist and influencer who was killed covering a clash this morning right between Hamas and the militias.
Georgina Godwin
Alicena, how much faith is there amongst the people who are living through this, both people in Gaza and people in Israel, that the meeting in Egypt can deliver a lasting solution?
Alison Kaplan Sommer
Well, you know, there's a lot of skepticism because we've had many, many, many summits in the past that have supposed to been, you know, brought some sort of vision of peace to the, to the Middle East. But it's a big question who is going to rule Gaza? Who is going to have control of Gaza? Israel will not tolerate having Hamas continue to rule and control the territory. Israel says that it doesn't want the Palestinian Authority to be in charge, but it seems like under the surface it is bringing in these other countries, these other powers, maybe some sort of military commitment to keep the peace because the world does not want Israel to occupy Gaza. But Israel after October 7th, after all it's been through, is not going to tolerate a regime in Gaza that threatens it on a daily basis and therefore some sort of solution has to happen. So I think people are hoping that the involvement and the prestige of so many countries which got this deal done can be extended to a deal that will finally deliver some sort of long term vision for who will rule Gaza and who will rule over Gaza. Some sort of force that won't pose an existential or threat to the state of Israel.
Georgina Godwin
Alison Kaplan, somewhere in a celebrationary Tel Aviv. Thank you very much indeed. Now still to come on the program. Oh, God, what a, what a dumb.
Caller/Guest
Thing to say, right?
Georgina Godwin
I mean, you say you play well.
Ashanti Omkar
And then right away I have to.
Georgina Godwin
Say you play well.
Caller/Guest
Oh.
Georgina Godwin
Oh God.
Caller/Guest
Annie.
Georgina Godwin
We look back at the legacy of Hollywood legend actress Diane Keaton. This is the globalist.
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Georgina Godwin
Well, let's continue now with today's newspapers and joining me in the studio is Zoe Grunewald who is Westminster editor at the lead Good morning to you, Zoe.
Zoe Grunewald
Good morning.
Georgina Godwin
Shall we start with France, because Macron has unveiled the new cabinet after Sebastien Lacornou returned as Prime Minister. Tell us who's in it and what this means, particularly for passing the budget. We know that that's his most urgent deadline.
Zoe Grunewald
Yes. So this is the second time in a week that a new centrist government, minority government, has been anointed. This time, Laconu has returned with new appointments. So there is Catherine Vautrin, who is a former Labour minister, who's taking charge of defence. We've got Lorraine Nunez, who is the Paris police chief of oversaw security during the 2024 Olympics and has become Interior Minister, so he'll be in charge of national security. And then we have Roland Lescur, who entered last week's government as Finance Minister and has retained his post. And then we've Jean Noel Barrot, who is a foreign minister in the last two governments, retaining his post. This is. Yeah, absolutely. It's a deep political crisis here in France. The key thing, obviously, which is the big flashpoint, has been over the budget. As we know, France is facing huge financial pressures. There's been a lot of conflict over pensions reform, which was particularly about raising the retirement age from 62 to 64. And of course, Macron's very much hoping that the Socialists will bring the proposals through and help keep his government stable, because he is facing revolts on both the far left and the far right here. It is really, really tricky. Macron is dealing with an angry public, angry ministers and angry parliamentarians. It is just an incredibly difficult time for Macron and the French government.
Georgina Godwin
And where does it leave Marine Le Pen? I presume in quite a powerful position. She said that she will table a no confidence vote against the new government on Monday. That's today, before it even put the new budget.
Zoe Grunewald
Yeah, absolutely. It looks like it wasn't that long ago. I was on the show talking about how this could be the end of Marine Le Pen after, of course, the court case and how her party is doing. But now her party seems to be commanding a bit of a majority in the polls. And as we know, and we can see this pattern across Europe, in times of economic strife, the far right often do make gains and do capture the public's attention with populist policies about spending and tax, etc. And it is often the centrist governments, particularly, you know, of macronsilk, that do struggle to maintain messaging and support.
Georgina Godwin
Well, let's look at the leader of the opposition here in Britain. That's Conservative Kemi Badenoch. She's written to the Prime Minister asking him to address unanswered questions about this collapsed case against two men accused of spying for China. Just tell us a little bit more about this. Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry.
Zoe Grunewald
That's right. So these two men denied the allegations. They were staffers in Parliament and they had been subject to a court case where they'd been accused of espionage for the China. For China. The case was dropped and this was because the Director of Public Prosecution said evidence could not be attained from, by the government referring to China as a national security threat. The government have essentially said that ministers could only draw on the last government's, the previous government's assessment of China, where they just called it an epoch defining challenge. They didn't necessarily use terminology that was strong enough to, to carry on the court case. But the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenok, has actually said, well, there's still many questions unanswered here. Who was involved in this particular decision? They're pointing at the National Security Adviser, Jonathan Powell, who has known links to Beijing. He's been out there on diplomatic meetings and such. And there is a suggestion from the opposition that there was almost a deliberate attempt from the government to collapse this trial because they want closer diplomatic relations with Beijing. We know that the Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, did visit Beijing not that long ago, that she sees China as their path to growth. And so here you've got that tension between security, diplomacy and the economy.
Georgina Godwin
And as we know, the government has given the green light to a super embassy being built in the heart of the City of London. Now it comes above critical data connections that would enable Chinese espionage on an industrial scale. Or at least that's what the Lib Dem Foreign affairs spokesman, Callum Miller said. It seems an extraordinary decision.
Zoe Grunewald
It does, and it's going to raise lots and lots of security concerns. China's never been one of those issues that particularly kind of galvanize, but actually it really does draw at the very heart of two really key issues when it comes to the public conscience. One of those is the economy. We know there is a lot of Chinese investment that this government is banking on to get their growth ambitions across the line. The other, of course, is where Britain's place is in this changing world and how it deals with increasingly, increasingly technological threats. And of course there, China and espionage and these things that have been going on. That is very much at the core of this. And the question is, do we want to allow China access to those particular data reserves? Do we want them to have such close economic ties, ties to our infrastructure. It is a real difficult weighing up of interest here for the government. And it's likely to be a route that only deepens and continues.
Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. And it's going to be influenced by what we were talking about earlier, the US row with China and how that plays out. As you say, it's a changing world and one of the areas in which it's changing very fast is climate change. And the Guardian tells us that the planet's first catastrophic climate tipping point has been reached. Tell us more about that.
Zoe Grunewald
Yeah, so tipping points are recognized by scientists as moments where a major ecosystem reaches a point where severe degradation is inevitable. So really stark wording there, particularly this is about warm water. Coral reefs long been facing a long term decline. They've been, many of them have been degrading for quite some time. But this new report from conservationists has warned that the world is on the brink of reaching other tipping points as well. They're talking about the dieback of the Amazon, the loss of ice sheets, the collapse of ocean currents, but particularly they suggest that we're now at a point where many coral reefs will not remain viable at these higher temperatures. And unless we return to a global temperature of 1.2 degrees as fast as possible, water reefs on our planet will see mass dying off at a huge scale. So very, very frightening. We know that coral reefs have a massive impact for the, for the rest of our ecosystem and of course are impacted by greenhouse gases. So this is a stark warning about what climate change is doing to our oceans.
Georgina Godwin
Zoe, a personal question if I may. Are you on the apps?
Zoe Grunewald
No, I'm not, thank goodness. Because of this piece in the Guardian that just made me want to roll my eyes. Obviously everybody is using chat GPT and artificial intelligence to help with daily tasks. That's what they're there for. But increasingly they seem to be ways that people go about their personal lives. And here this article is all about something called chat phishing, which is about how people are using chat GPT to get dates. So they're using them on their conversations, on dating apps. And particularly it talks to a few people who felt like they had a really close connection with someone they met on an app and then they met them in real life and they realized this person was just nothing, nowhere near as deep, eloquent, interested, interesting as they had been on conversations. And that when, that's when they suspected they'd been using ChatGPT to conduct their conversations, they were talking about how it used to be that you would. You thought people might slightly edit their photos or use older photos. Now you realize people are making completely false Personas and meeting up and not being nearly the conversation as they were online.
Georgina Godwin
That's quite extraordinary. I mean, it's hard to see what you'd gain about that apart from getting a date in person.
Zoe Grunewald
I think what's really interesting about this piece is it shows that increasingly people are outsourcing just basic human interaction to robots. This isn't about productivity methods, it isn't about making work easier. It's actually just thinking. I can't even think for myself anymore. I can't really be bothered to think of a conversation starter. I can't engage my brain. And I think there is a question about if we become so reliant on ChatGPT, do we just forget how to go about those normal interactions? And therefore, are you really building meaningful connection with people if you're relying on robots to do it for you? So, I mean, if you think that dating couldn't get much worse, I think we've unlocked a new era.
Georgina Godwin
Zoe, thank you very much indeed. That's Zoe Grunwald, who's Westminster editor at the lead. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Families across Israel are welcoming home hostages released in the first phase of a US brokered deal, while Donald Trump arrives to be honoured for his role in securing the ceasefire. He'll travel on to Egypt later today to co chair talks aimed at turning the truce into a lasting peace. Reappointed French Prime Minister Sebastien Leconnou has unveiled a cabinet balancing loyalists and newcomers as he faces immediate budget battles. The reshuffle is seen as President Macron's attempt to revive momentum after months of political gridlock. And speaking at a national women's congress in Beijing, Xi Jinping said female participation was vital to social harmony and modernisation. Critics note that women still hold less than 10% of top communist Party positions. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned now for a look behind the headlines. Here's Monocle's Petri Bortsoff on the recent US Finnish deal for icebreakers.
Petri Borzow
The striking icebreaker agreements between Finland and the United States signed on Thursday by Finnish President Alexander Stubb and US President Donald Trump, will have far reaching repercussions not only for Finland, but also the wider Arctic region at its core. The deal envisages 11 icebreakers, four to be built in Finland and sea seven in the United States, all of them using Finnish technology and expertise. The project is worth around US$6 billion, with deliveries due to begin by 2028. For Finland, this is not just a commercial victory, but a strategic breakthrough. The country already leads the world in icebreaker technology. This agreement secures long term work for Finnish yards in Turku, Helsinki, Rauma, and supports thousands, if not tens of thousands of engineering jobs and cements the maritime sector as a pillar of the Finnish national economy. Geopolitically, the pact deepens Finland's alignment with Washington at a moment of heightened tension in the high north. Since joining NATO, Helsinki has sought to balance its proximity to Russia with a greater role in Western security frameworks. This core bereft, gives Finland a tangible role in the Arctic defence planning not just as a northern outpost, but as a key enabler of allied operations in polar waters. It also effectively ties the United States bilaterally to Finland and its security. And while questions remain about legal hurdles under U.S. shipbuilding laws and whether Congress will back foreign construction for the United States, the deal plugs a long standing capability gap. America has only a handful of aging icebreakers, while Russia commands a fleet of dozens. By turning to Finland, Washington gains proven designs and faster delivery. For Monocle in Helsinki, I'm Petri Borzow.
Georgina Godwin
Many thanks there to Petri. And for more you can sign up to our daily newsletter, the Monocle Mill Minute. Head over to monocle.com minute this is the Globalist. It's 8:31 in Zurich, 1:31am In Lima. Peru has a new president again, its seventh since 2016. Lawmakers have voted to remove Dina Bruate for corruption and moral incapacity after her approval rating sank to almost nothing. Within an hour, Congress President Jose Harry was sworn in, promising to declare war on crime. He now faces a nation tired of scandal, angry about violence and deeply distrustful of its leaders. So what does this change mean for Peru and can anyone restore faith in its politics? Well, for more, I'm joined now by Natalia Sobravia Perea, who's professor of Latin American history at the University of Kent. Natalia, thanks for coming. Coming on the show today, what finally pushed lawmakers to remove Boluate.
Caller/Guest
Six months before the elections that are coming up next year? Congress members decided that it was time to abandon the woman who had been leading in name the country because it had actually been Congress and been in charge all along. But we really pushed her over the edge. Where were a couple of events of violence. There was a candidate to the presidency who went to southern Peru and was attacked. And there was also a band playing music on an event, and there was a shootout. And that really brought everybody to the other side, to the edge. Within 24 hours, she had lost all confidence.
Georgina Godwin
How much damage did that Rolex scandal do to her reputation?
Caller/Guest
Not much. I mean, she had no reputation already. It was just a proof that she had no interest in governing, only in embezzlement.
Georgina Godwin
And now Jose Herre has promised to take on crime. How serious is the security crisis across the country?
Caller/Guest
It is. It is increasingly dangerous in all accounts, not just because you can now be killed. Peru used to be one of the safest countries in the region. No longer the case. You can be shot at, as has been demonstrated by the events in the last weeks. But also, extortion has grown in a way that has been unprecedented in Peru. However, Jose, Jerry and the people in Congress who are still in charge have been those responsible for changing laws, allowing organized crime to advance. So it is very doubtful in my mind that someone like Jose Geri, who has no reputation for actually combating crime, but has supported it, would be in charge of changing this.
Georgina Godwin
And do you think he has enough support to govern effectively?
Caller/Guest
Well, the situation in Peru now is such that Congress can decide who will govern just by having the right number of votes. And that's what happened with Dina Guadaluarte. Fifty dead people in the beginning of her regime was not enough. The Rolex scandals was not enough. Her absolute incapacity and lack of any support was never a problem for Congress until they realized that, so close to the elections, they really need to get rid of her. Hossehri is now there, supposedly for six months before the election. And it remains to be seen, first, if today, Monday, he will be able to form a government and have a cabinet in place. And on Wednesday, if he will be able to resist the large mobilization that's being prepared by the population that is very angry at Congress because it's not just Boluarte that had no popular support, but Congress only has maybe 2% support in the whole country.
Georgina Godwin
So Peru seems caught in a constant political breakdown. Why does it keep happening?
Caller/Guest
Well, in fact, it's not seven presidents, as you mentioned, but eight in the last 10 years. And the reason for this is because there is a huge mismatch between those in Congress supposedly representing the people and those in the country. So the elections really bring out politicians that do not have political parties, that do not have any relationship with what is happening, happening on the ground. And they act as if they were completely immune to the relationship between those voters that brought them into their positions. Now, this is again changing because of the closeness to the elections. And they're now starting to think, well, if we don't do something, we will be held responsible for what has happened in the past five years, particularly the deterioration of, of the situation in terms of death, extortion, robbery, security issues.
Georgina Godwin
And looking ahead to the elections. Is there likelihood of meaningful and positive change?
Caller/Guest
We have 42 candidates, as it stands for president. It's very difficult to see six months before who has any possibility of reaching the second round. April seems to be around the corner, but we still have no clarity of who will actually emerge as a representative. So it is very difficult to think that in the current system that has been changed from within. So the Congress that will be elected will be both with two chambers, as today is only just one chamber. So there's been a lot of change introduced and it still remains to be seen if there will be actual change. However, having said that, that there is hope by the people in the general population that there will actually be a possibility for having better representatives elected this time.
Georgina Godwin
And finally, we hear that Blarte is reported to be seeking asylum in Ecuador. I wonder how likely that is and how people in Lima are reacting.
Caller/Guest
Well, that did not come to pass. I mean, there were people in front of the Ecuadorian Embassy. Ecuador right now is having its own security crisis. I'm not sure if that is a place that is able to grant her asylum. There was word that she was rejected from receiving asylum in Argentina and she came out outside her house yesterday saying that she was not going to go, she was not going to move. And in fact, because she has been removed from office before the cutoff date of 12 October, she could even be a candidate in the next election.
Georgina Godwin
Natalia, thank you very much indeed. That's Natalia Sobravia Parea, professor of Latin American History at the University of Kent. This is Monocle Radio.
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Georgina Godwin
It is 7:38 in Yaounde, 8:38 in Zurich. Cameroon voted on Sunday in an election which the incumbent, Paul Beer, who's 92, is hoping to win. Win. He's been president since 1982. Results are still being counted, but opposition candidate Issa Chiroma Bakari is doing well. According to early results, it's thought that the change might be driven by a youth vote with the under 30s turning out in record numbers. Well, I'm joined now by Blaise Eong who is a journalist and documentary filmmaker based in Douala. Blaise, many thanks for coming on the program. What do we know so far about the results?
Blaise Eong
Results so the results for the presidential elections may only be proclaimed in two weeks. That's what the Cameronian law says. However, for voting in the diaspora in France, in Russia, in America and in other places, results are already in because the number of people that vote there is not as big and people who went to vote were able to take pictures, were able to live stream and it looks like the former minister, Minister of Communication, the government spokesperson who decided to challenge Beer, is getting into big numbers outside Cameroon. But that's also the case in Cameroon for people who are making live stream and taking pictures, making videos after the after voting ended and vote Counting started at 6pm local time yesterday, it appears that Isajeruma Bakari is still leading the incumbent and now it's still to be seen if the Electoral commission is going to say the contrary in two weeks time when the results are expected to be proclaimed. But on social media it looks as though the incumbent president is losing quite a bit of support.
Georgina Godwin
And in terms of previous elections, I mean we know he's been in power for decades. How free and fair have they been? Can we expect the electoral Commission to reflect the will of the people?
Blaise Eong
People that has been the a question that a lot of Cameronians have been asking. Yes, since yesterday. Yesterday I spoke to one opposition leader, Joshua Osi here in Duala just after he voted and he said that he does not trust that the process can be free and fair, that he thinks that he has never been free and fair. But that what the opposition I have been doing is that even if the ruling party is going to win, I quote him, he says yeah he's going, he's going to cheat. They will not cheat beyond 5 or 10% because a lot of young people have went out yesterday to vote, stood there while the votes were counted, live streamed those the counting process and posted those pictures online. Even though the minister, the interior minister has said he's going to arrest anyone, anybody that's posting results online. It might be an interesting time ahead. Yesterday after vote ended, security forces went around the home of opposition leader now Isa Charuma Bakari in Garoa and there was protestor one vehicle from the gendarmerie was set ablaze. So in two weeks, maybe less than two weeks, we're going to know who the electoral body would declare as winner. But if we go by what's been happening online, it really looks like the incumbent president is having a very hard time this time around.
Georgina Godwin
And you mentioned young people. I mean, this is quite unusual, isn't it, for them to turn out in these numbers. It's not something we've seen really happen in the last few decades.
Blaise Eong
That is correct. For a very long time, voting in Cameroon is mainly be done by people middle age and sometimes old people because for a very long time, as beer has been in power, young people feel that voting is just a waste of time. However, there's a new spirit, energy for young people to participate in elections, this particular elections, and a lot of young people have been heavily involved, you see that in their WhatsApp status on social media and they are actively trying to make their voices heard. So, yes, this election looks a bit different than other elections that Cameron has organized. I covered the elections in 2018 and I did not see the amount, the amount of young people I saw yesterday trying to vote. I did not see that same amount of people in 2018. So I think things have changed quite a bit this year.
Georgina Godwin
And is that driven by technology?
Blaise Eong
It's. It's driven by technology. A lot of young people have smartphones. They are able to see what's happening in other countries and how young people have changed governments and have voted out authoritarian governments in other places. They've seen how protest has also brought down governments in other places. And so I think a lot of young people feel as though this is an opportunity for them to do the same here. But it's also driven because of frustration. Cameron has difficult, has difficulties with getting young people employed. So there are a lot of young people without jobs. Most of them have graduated from the university. The economy is not doing so well. Cost of living crisis. It's hard for young people to get a home. A lot of young Cameroonians are trying to travel to Europe, to America to find work, and even to the Middle East. So it's difficult. And so it's also out of frustration that a lot of young people have been very active in this election.
Georgina Godwin
And so tell me, what would a win for Issacharama Bakari mean for Cameroon?
Blaise Eong
It would mean a new page is such a. Would mean a new pitch for Cameroonians. As you said in your introduction, most of the Cameroonian population is under 30 and so they've had a president who has been in power for 42 years. It means that most Cameroonians have only known one president. And even for their parents, their came to power when they were teenagers, some of them, you know, a woman that's 50 years old now, she, she was, she was basically a child when be came to power. So that tells you what of a big deal it will be if Cameron has a new president, if Churuma becomes a, a new president. And also a lot of Cameroonians are hoping that with a new president things would change. Because growth in Cameroon has stagnated for so long and because it's been one party, one system for so long, it's almost been difficult for somebody outside the party to break through, even to get jobs, to get opportunities, to get contracts, because everything is somewhat controlled by the same group of people who benefit from, from the riches and, and yes, who benefit from the riches of capital Cameroon. So having a new president will mean a lot for ordinary people, will mean a lot for business people. And a lot of people just see that it would be another opportunity for the country to start afresh.
Georgina Godwin
And finally, are there any fears of violence after the results are released, particularly if perhaps we see bea return to office?
Blaise Eong
Yes, I think that there might be violence. We hope there is no violence. But because of what we've seen yesterday before the voting, the Interior minister warned that if the opposition declares the result before time, he's going to arrest the opposition leader immediately. Troops were deployed outside his home and people from his hometown came out massively started protesting. And by night yesterday, police and general damn vehicles were already attacked. And, and so that's kind of the fear that a lot of Cameronians have and also because a lot of young people voted this time around, went out of their way to live stream the vote counting so that the whole country can see how their supposed leader is leading. Across the country there are fears that people who have voted, who think that they are vote they have casted their votes for someone other than be will be extremely frustrated with the with BE government if bias declared the winner. So we have to wait and see what's going to happen. But it looks like Cameronians are tired of their current president.
Georgina Godwin
Thank you very much. That's Blaise Eong speaking to us there from Douala. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Well, it's time now for a news roundup from the Balkans and I'm joined from Ljubljana by Guy Delaunay, Monocle's Balkan correspondent. Good morning to you, Guy.
Guy Delaunay
Good morning, Georgina, and good morning everybody.
Georgina Godwin
Now tell us about these municipal elections that happened in Kosovo yesterday.
Guy Delaunay
I. I know that doesn't sound like the most promising start, does it, Georgina? You know, municipal elections in cosmic Kosovo, it's a bit of a hard sell, but these are really interesting elections, and that's because of two things. Firstly, because of what's happening with Kosovo Serbs, the Serb minority, who are mostly in the north of Kosovo. Secondly, what's happening with Kosovo as a whole, because listeners may not know, unless they've been following things closely, that Kosovo hasn't had a functioning government since February, when there were parliamentary elections. And these municipal elections, of course, act as a little bit of a bellwether, a little bit of an opinion poll, if you like, on how the citizens of Kosovo feel about that. So the answers are in, firstly, that the Serbs of North Kosovo, their parties decided to participate this time after boycotting the last two elections, and they're back in power. And this is interesting because in the time that the Serb parties haven't been participating, the. The ethnic Albanian party of Kosovo, particularly Prime Minister Albin Kurti's Vet Vendosya party, has been making merry, if you like, in north Kosovo, removing symbols of Serbia, closing down institutions that serve Kosovo Serbs. This has been ramping up the tensions. So this time round, the Kosovo Serb parties decided to take part in the elections and they're back in power power. So you can expect to see some sort of shift in what's going on in north Kosovo and maybe even in some of the other municipalities in Kosovo where there's a Serb majority. But for Prime Minister, I should say Acting Prime Minister Albin Kurti, because he hasn't formed this new government formally yet. Still, what, eight months on from the parliamentary elections. Of course, the municipal polls, as I mentioned, acted as a sort of, you know, plebiscite on how people felt about that. And the people are saying they don't feel good about it because Mr. Curtis party has only gained two municipalities so far. There'll be some runoff elections still to come, but he's had a good kicking, one could say.
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. Guy, tell us about the Serbia oil sanctions.
Guy Delaunay
So this is. If you are trying to buy petrol in Serbia at the moment, you're going to have to do it in cash at an awful lot of petrol stations. In fact, the largest petrol station operator in Serbia, nice, is no longer accepting credit card payments. And that is because the US has imposed sanctions, in effect on nice, because NICE is majority owned by Gazprom and Gazprom Neft. They are Russian companies. The US has instituted sanctions against Those companies. And although Serbia's government has managed to negotiate numerous postponements of these sanctions coming into effect, they did so last week, and very quickly, Visa and MasterCard stopped processing payments. So this is a big issue for Serbia. It's not just about payments in the petrol stations, but it's also about whether it's got fuel at all. Because Nice has the only refinery in the country. It provides more than 80% of the petrol and diesel that's sold in service Serbia, more than 90% of the jet fuel and other heavy fuels. And it's no longer going to be able to receive oil via the pipeline that Croatia operates, which is called Janaf. So this is going to be a big problem for Serbia, potentially, if they don't sort out some sort of fudge. And you would have thought they'd had enough notice to do that, but they haven't so far.
Georgina Godwin
And I mean, nationalization would seem the obvious answer, but clearly they wouldn't want to, to make Moscow angry.
Guy Delaunay
Well, this is it. And this is the critics of Aleksandr Vucic, the president of Serbia, have said, look, you could solve this in a trice. You could set up a new local company and just do all sorts of little fudges. You could have an emergency temporary nationalization on the grounds of national security. And yet, because Mr. Vucic likes to play this game of keeping everybody happy or keeping a foot in each camp, he has been very reluctant to do anything which might seem to be against the interests of Moscow, or poking the Russian bear, as it were. So, yes, we will have to see what happens, in essence, when Nice runs out of oil to process at its refinery. Where does Serbia go then?
Georgina Godwin
Now, Guy, I am in awe of your size of steel, but I understand that today they might be a little bit achy. Tell us why.
Guy Delaunay
I can feel everything in my legs and in my posterior quarter, Georgina, today, because on Sunday, that's yesterday, I took part in the Poggy Challenge, which was basically the world's greatest cyclist today, Pogaccia, multiple Tour de France champion, world champion, European champion, reigning in both instances, decided to chase, to end his very, very successful cycling season by chasing a load of idiots, including myself, up one of the fiercest mountain climbs in Slovenia, Mount Karvavec. And he basically gave us a head start of a few minutes, nothing more than that, and set about picking us off. And this was a climb of about 14 km over some extremely fearsome gradients. I have to say, he picked me off in the first couple of kilometers, Georgina. But there was one person who managed to stay away. And it was a British guy called Andrew Feather. And he actually managed to beat today Pagacha, having didn't climb up the mountain quite as fast as Tade Pogaccia. But he on. On Gacha's terms with this head start. Andrew Feather actually beat him, which puts him in very, very elite company because I think today Pogaccia has only actually lost three professional races on the road this season.
Georgina Godwin
Guy, I'm hoping that you have a swift recovery. Perhaps some sort of Epsom salts in your bath or something. That's Guy Delaunay.
Guy Delaunay
That's all he needed.
Georgina Godwin
Georgina Monocle's Falcons correspondent in Ljubljana. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. The actress, filmmaker and author Diane Keaton has died at the age of 79. Born Diane hall in Los Angeles, she became world famous playing Ann hall, the character who shared her name and earned her an Oscar for best actress in 1977. Across six decades and nearly a hundred roles, she stood out for her wit, originality, and complete refusal to conform.
Alison Kaplan Sommer
I like my curiosity and I realized that as you go along, you know, you think you're going to have one.
Georgina Godwin
Point of view about seeing, but it changes and it keeps changing.
Alison Kaplan Sommer
I would always fail because they would always say to me, you're too kooky. I don't think about my film legacy. I'm just lucky to have been here at all in any way, shape or form.
Georgina Godwin
I'm just fortunate. I don't see myself anything other than that. Now let's have a look at her life, her career, and the legacy, legacy she leaves behind with Ashanti Omkar, who is film, TV and culture critic. Ashanti, welcome. What made Diane Keaton such a standout in 1970s Hollywood?
Ashanti Omkar
Well, I guess she, she formed in many ways a new wave of Hollywood working with people like Francis Ford Coppola. And, you know, when she gave us that role, it was such an important role in the Godfather trilogy. You could see how she stood out with her work. And, you know, winning, winning, winning the Oscar and the BAFTA there for Annie hall before that. And then, you know, we've, we've seen her as this iconic woman. Every time she stepped on a carpet, she, she stole everyone's eyes. Everybody would just look at her. You know, she had this, this look that had the, the big hat and she would wear a waistcoat and, and she just, she just owned the room. She owned every frame she was in on screen. This is what was so brilliant about her. And she lived on her own terms, she was that woman. She was a renaissance woman in so many ways that so many people have followed. In terms of her fashion, in terms of how she lived, and even in terms of how she was so smart with her money. She's ended up with a, you know, she's leaving a hundred million dollar fortune to her adopted children, Dexter and Duke. And she was a single mother, she'd never married, and she followed her passions.
Georgina Godwin
To a T. Absolutely. How did Annie hall redefine what a romantic lead could be?
Ashanti Omkar
Well, I guess they, they showed us in the, in that film that, you know, a woman can live on her own terms, that she can be funny, that she can be multifaceted. And this was something we had seen back in the day. We were seeing heroines who were there just for the glamour. Whereas to see somebody who had a full personality, that's what shone in that. And many of her roles, including something like Book Club, which has been in newer films, these were made at a smaller budget, but they made over 100 million worldwide. Every time they came out. They then did a next chapter. It was really interesting to see that somebody like her could keep stealing the scene over the decades.
Georgina Godwin
Well, and how, I mean, how did she manage to stay so relevant and bankable for so many years?
Ashanti Omkar
I guess it was her personality from scratch. Because when we look at the people who've been talking about her since her passing and, you know, 79 is in this day and age, quite a young age to be passing, but she really did live, live on her own terms and she worked on her own terms terms and her pure talent showed. She showed us that she could act in something like looking for Mr. Goodbar. You can see that this is a woman who could take on so many different roles. And this is what has kept her as someone who had that longevity. And, you know, people like Robert De Niro has talked about, talked about her and her passing and, you know, everyone who's saying that she will be, she will be, be missed. Meryl Streep talking about that as well. She's somebody who was just a brilliant artist and she, she followed all her passions and she put all her passions onto screen when she had to.
Georgina Godwin
And very, very briefly, what kind of legacy does she leave for women in Hollywood today?
Ashanti Omkar
Well, I guess I hope that everybody in Hollywood and beyond looks at the life that she lived and says we can also live as free women who are able to, you know, who are able to take on everything that we want to and to believe that we can do this to the max. She was always complimentary about everyone. She was just this nice person. I've seen interview clips where she would even compliment that interviewer who is speaking to her and she'll say, you are gorgeous. And she made everyone around her feel that they were special. And that's the legacy I guess she will leave behind.
Georgina Godwin
Ashanti, thank you very much indeed. That's Ashanti Omkar, film, TV and culture critic. And let's end with the voice of Diane Keaton herself from the movie Marvin's Room. I've been so lucky.
Caller/Guest
I've had such love in my life. You know, I look back and I've.
Georgina Godwin
Had such.
UBS Narrator
Such love.
Georgina Godwin
Diane Keaton, who's died at 79. And that's all for today's program programme. Thanks to our producers, Hassan Anderson, Chris Chermack and Monica Lillis, our researcher Joanna Moser and our studio manager, Mariella Bevan. After the headlines, there's more music on the way. The briefing is live at midday in London and I'll return on the Globalist at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening.
UBS Narrator
With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.
Episode Theme:
A detailed examination of breaking global news including the release of Israeli hostages and Trump’s involvement in Middle East peace efforts; renewed China-US trade tensions and their global implications; major political shifts in France, Peru, and Cameroon; and cultural reflections following the death of Diane Keaton.
Guest: Jonathan Femby, journalist and former editor, South China Morning Post
Segment: [03:41–11:01]
Background:
Low-level trade talks had been progressing, but both presidents Trump and Xi are now jockeying for leverage before a possible meeting at the APEC summit in South Korea later in the month.
Main Triggers:
Quote:
“For me, Trump—it's very mercurial. I mean, his behavior is very mercurial. As you just said, he issued these big threats at the end of last week and then he put out a tweet on his social media platform taking a kind of much softer line with China.” (Jonathan Femby, [04:27])
China’s Leverage on Rare Earths:
Quote:
“The Middle East has oil, but China has rare earths.” (Jonathan Femby, recalling Deng Xiaoping, [05:47])
Economic Impact:
Outlook:
Quote:
“Countries in both ASEAN and the European Union will be forced to take sides at one point if the trade war gets worse...” (Jonathan Femby, [10:06])
Guest: Alison Kaplan Sommer, journalist at Haaretz, live from Tel Aviv
Segment: [11:45–18:16]
Atmosphere in Israel:
Quote:
“It's really a wave of happiness that's sweeping over the whole country.” (Alison Kaplan Sommer, [11:45])
Process of Palestinian Prisoner Release:
Trump’s Visit:
Quote:
“They're handing out Red Hats in the Knesset saying 'Donald Trump, the president of peace'.” (Alison Kaplan Sommer, [13:29])
Political Fallout for Netanyahu:
Situation in Gaza:
Prospects for Lasting Peace:
Guest: Zoe Grunewald, Westminster editor
Segment: [19:27–21:57]
PM Sebastien Lacornu’s new centrist, minority government faces a race to pass a contested budget.
Political crisis reinforces Marine Le Pen’s position; she’s tabling a vote of no confidence.
Quote:
“In times of economic strife, the far right often do make gains and do capture the public's attention with populist policies...” (Zoe Grunewald, [21:22])
Segment: [21:57–24:41]
Segment: [25:01–26:05]
A stark scientific warning that the world has reached the first “catastrophic climate tipping point,” with coral reefs facing mass die-offs.
Quote:
“Unless we return to a global temperature of 1.2 degrees as fast as possible, water reefs on our planet will see mass dying off at a huge scale.” (Zoe Grunewald, [25:01])
Segment: [26:05–27:49]
Reporter: Petri Borzow, Monocle Helsinki Correspondent
Segment: [29:11–31:10]
Guest: Natalia Sobravia Perea, Professor of Latin American History, University of Kent
Segment: [32:25–38:19]
President Dina Boluarte removed for corruption; Jose Herre sworn in amid rampant public distrust.
Congress is seen as manipulating leadership; extortion and violence are at record highs.
Hope for change persists, but skepticism is deep, given the instability (eight presidents in a decade).
Quote:
“It's not just Boluarte that had no popular support, but Congress only has maybe 2% support in the whole country.” (Natalia Sobravia Perea, [34:27])
Guest: Blaise Eong, journalist & documentary filmmaker
Segment: [39:10–48:02]
Incumbent President Paul Biya (in power since 1982) faces substantial challenge.
Early results show opposition candidate Issa Chiroma Bakari leading, buoyed by unprecedented youth turnout, technological engagement (live streaming vote count), and economic frustration.
Fear of unrest if the electoral commission’s results don’t match popular sentiment.
Quote:
“Most Cameroonians have only known one president... so that tells you what a big deal it will be if Cameroon has a new president.” (Blaise Eong, [45:09])
Correspondent: Guy Delaunay
Segment: [48:24–54:22]
Guest: Ashanti Omkar, film/TV/culture critic
Segment: [55:03–59:39]
A tribute to Keaton’s career and persona as an actress who redefined the Hollywood woman—witty, original, and non-conformist.
Annie Hall was “a woman who could be funny, multifaceted, and live on her own terms.”
Keaton inspired generations with her style, independence, and kindness.
Quote:
“She lived on her own terms... She was a renaissance woman in so many ways that so many people have followed.” (Ashanti Omkar, [55:47])
“We can also live as free women who are able to take on everything that we want.” (Ashanti Omkar, [59:01])
The discussion is brisk, insightful, and blends journalistic clarity with local color and occasional wit. Contributors speak candidly about uncertainty, skepticism, and hope in world affairs, while maintaining a robust analytical approach.
This episode of The Globalist surveys a world in flux—from global power struggles and economic brinkmanship, to the intensely local experience of relief and uncertainty in conflict zones, through to shifting political landscapes in Europe, Latin America, and Africa. Interwoven are lighter cultural moments, with a poignant reflection on the enduring legacy of Diane Keaton. The show offers context, expert commentary, and a human touch for listeners navigating a complex news day.