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The Globalist
Trump says the Iran war could end in ‘two to three weeks’ despite US troop build-up
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UBS Narrator
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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on the 1st of April, 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program coming up, but if Iran is wise,
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Philippe Zuber
they will cut a deal.
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Emma Nelson
President Trump doesn't bluff and he does not back down. But does he? While the US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says one thing, Donald Trump gives his clearest sign yet that he wants to wind down operations against Iran. What's going to happen next? Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, it may be embroiled in conflict with Afghanistan. So why has Pakistan emerged as an unlikely mediator in the Iran war? We'll hear from one leading hotelier about the one thing his guests need to
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Philippe Zuber
feel joy is the sentiment that we have to create for our guests and customer while they walk through a one and only hotel.
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Emma Nelson
More from the CEO of Kurtzner a little later in the program. Plus, the media news census gathering begins in India and we look at the papers, too. That's all coming up on the Globalist live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in today's news. Russia's Defense Ministry says a military transport plane has crashed after contact was lost as it flew over Crimea, killing all 29 people on board. A judge in Washington has temporarily blocked President Trump from constructing a ballroom on the demolished east wing of the White House, saying the president is the steward but not the owner of the building. And Italy have missed out on qualifying for this year's Football World cup, but the Democratic Republic of Congo are through for the first time in 52 years. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, has Tehran's patience won when it comes to the conflict in the Middle East? The clearest signs yet are coming from the White House that Donald Trump wishes to end America's war against Iran with or without a deal.
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Vincent McEvinney
All I have to do is leave
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Philippe Zuber
Iran and we'll be doing that very soon. I would say that within two weeks,
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Emma Nelson
maybe two weeks, maybe three. Donald Trump said Washington had achieved its aims despite failing to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Tehran. So will Iran ride out the storm of America and Israel's war against it? Well, to tell us more, I'm joined now by Laura James, who's deputy director and senior Middle east analyst at Oxford Analytica. A very good morning to you, Laura. Let's begin with this announcement that Donald Trump says that within two to three weeks, with or without a deal, America will draw down its involvement in the Iran war. What's your reaction to that? I mean, do we think that this is actually going to happen?
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Laura James
It's so interesting, isn't it? Because he has sent almost every signal within the last week of intensification boots on the ground, leaving immediately, not two to three weeks, leaving it for someone else to fix. I think that there are two things we can say for sure. One is that the troops are coming in to enable a ground operation. So I don't think that Trump and his planners have fully abandoned that option, depending what happens in the next two to three weeks. The other is that it is becoming clearer, I think, that the costs of staying in are, are very high and the benefits are dubious. It's not completely clear that a ground operation will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring down oil prices. So it, it looks like this could be the moment to cut and run. The, the fact is, though, that that is also not going to bring down oil prices. So the question is really, can Trump live with the fact that he leaves, but oil prices remain elevated. The Strait of Hormuz is still controlled by Iran. Iran's regime says it has, in fact, won, and the rest of the region is far more unstable than it was before the war, the answer is possibly yes. If he can paint all this as a victory to his base, and he seems to be refocusing again on the nuclear issue. In order to do that, we said we stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. We've done that. If they agree to say it in writing, that's fine. If they don't, we've still done it by physically destroying more infrastructure. It's not a strong argument to the rest of the world and particularly to the countries that are really suffering from the economic fallout. But it is an argument that might fly at home.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. And let's talk about the, the arguments that might fly at home. We, we are seeing an enormous expense to US consumers and businesses. It's $4 a gallon. Now, if you want to fill your tank in, in America, if you want to Fill your car. And this goes completely against what Donald Trump decided that he wanted to do. He wanted to want to. He wanted to cut the cost of living. And he also didn't want to go to war.
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Laura James
No, indeed. And all of that's been reversed. And I think he's probably quite angry with advisors who told him this would be an easy, quick intervention and the Iranian regime would fall, or whoever had advised him on those lines. The problem, of course, is that withdrawing at this point does not deal with the petrol price problem. Let's have a little look, perhaps if it would be interesting, at what Iran does in this scenario. So Iran at this point, if the US leaves without any further military action, except for more bombing over some time, Iran still has the capacity to keep the Strait of Formers closed because that depends on drones, mines, low tech capacity that is very hard to bomb out. So that would take months and ground forces. Does Iran then open the strait? Possibly to some shipments, but they look like they're gearing up to set very stringent conditions that they'd be charging. They've got a toll system, there's a law going through parliament to, to formalize this and to give it some kind of quasi legal basis. So there'd be, there'd be fees for ships going through. They're talking about the fact that the ships have to be non US allies can't host US military bases, which of course hits at the Gulf countries whose oil shipments depend. So are the other key factor in the global economic response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So we could see a US departure. Iran far better off financially and oil prices and gas prices still not returning to previous levels into the medium term.
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Emma Nelson
And if we just look at the wider region and the destabilising effect, I mean, just the headlines in the last couple of hours in Kuwait, there's a fire breaking out at the international airport there because there's been an Iranian drone strike there. There's been an attack on a facility in Bahrain with a fire, and by all accounts, a tanker has been hit by an unknown missile in the waters just off Qatar. Iran's ability to, to create chaos twofold has been overwhelmingly successful. Absolutely.
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Laura James
And again, it seems like they can continue that for a while because it's not necessarily about volume of missiles which the United States and Israel can try to destroy, but about drones and Lucky Strikes and things getting through. So really, if the United States leaves at this point, it's a question of what does Tehran want to do? And one of the things They've said is they want to continue exacting a price as a deterrent. They say if it's a negotiation, we want guarantees as part of it that the United States and Israel will not attack us like this again. And if they don't, they want to exact what they call reparations, which I think basically means make the price of this war so high that no one considers a repetition.
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Emma Nelson
Tell us where Israel sits with all this, because the aim of Israel is to enact regime change in Tehran. But what seems to have happened is that doubling down and getting even harder has actually strengthened Iran's position.
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Laura James
Israel has been looking either for regime change or regime degradation. So to some extent, Israel's goals are being met simply because Iran is less militarily powerful than it used to be. And Israel has always been its prime military target for the neighboring Gulf countries. They're the ones that are particularly vulnerable to. To small drone strikes. They're not used to it. It upsets their business environment. They haven't got the air defenses that Israel has. For Israel, just having set back Iran's nuclear program, destroyed a large number of missiles and degraded the ability of its allies in the region, like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shia militias in Iraq, that might be enough. I think the core thing for Israel is they will do what the United States says on this, because staying in line with Trump is far more important than whether Iran's abilities are degraded this time around or next time around. They've had quite a good run at a run at cutting Iran down. It would have been nice if regime change had happen, but as it is, Iran is still less of a threat than it was a few years ago.
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Emma Nelson
So if you were a business in the Middle east or you were running an airline this morning and trying to work out what your plans are going to look like for the next three to six months, do we look now at a sort of a conclusion to the American side at least, of the conflict, or are we looking at a continuation which will destabilize for much longer?
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Laura James
The central scenario is probably at this point that the United States will try to withdraw. And I think that there's still a possibility that it will become clear that that really doesn't achieve any of the aims that the US has for the region, and therefore they may get sucked in again. I would say even if they do withdraw, the region is going to be more unstable and conflict will continue in different ways, not at this high level of intensity, but through the straight of possibly through further attacks on Gulf countries as we have a far more hardline and unpredictable and militarily led Iranian regime in place with less command and control than there used to be. So I think that business operations in the region need to look at being extremely cautious for months ahead. There is not a quick exit strategy here. And it depends obviously, at that point on the business's risk aversion and how susceptible it is to this kind of disruption.
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Emma Nelson
Laura James, deputy director and senior Middle east analyst at Oxford Analytica, thank you so much for joining us. On THE globalist. It's 1041 in Kabul at 7:11 here in London. Now, while the Trump administration weighs up its options, other nations are trying to take the lead in bringing about an end to the conflict in the Middle East. Pakistan has emerged as an unlikely voice of reconciliation, trying to act as a mediator. All the while the country itself is embroiled in a war with its neighbor, Afghanistan. I'm joined now by Lyn o', Donnell, columnist for Foreign Policy magazine, who now joins me from Melbourne. A very good afternoon to you, Lyn.
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Lyn O'Donnell
Hi, Emma.
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Emma Nelson
Good to have you with us. So explain to us what is Pakistan doing?
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Lyn O'Donnell
Well, what's it doing where it's fighting a war with Afghanistan, which is largely being overshadowed by what's happening in Iran, but that's been going on for a long time and is just intensifying now. Pakistan is also cozying up with China, joining forces there to come up with in the last few hours a five point peace plan that those parties say will bring an immediate end to hostilities and most importantly, especially for China, get the oil flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz. So Pakistan is up to quite a lot, but it always has been, if we're going to be frank about Pakistan's history, it plays both sides and all sides at once. And at the moment it's fighting three wars on its own territory and also, as you say, trying to be the mediator to end a conflict between the United States and Israel and Iran.
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Emma Nelson
And as this all things to all states position, can that actually make Pakistan a successful and credible peacemaker or does it do the opposite?
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Lyn O'Donnell
Well, Pakistan is desperate for international relevance. It wants to be seen as a player and it's certainly done that in the past. Throughout the 20 year American led war in Afghanistan, which we've got to Remember, Drew, in 40 countries, including all of the NATO members and partner nations, Pakistan was again playing all sides at once. It was hosting and arming and protecting the Taliban, while at the same time pretending, if I may say that to be one of the partners to the coalition that was fighting the Taliban. So, you know, Pakistan has been assiduous in its history of mediation. It was also involved, if we go, you know, back to the last century, it was involved in getting America and China together in brokering what became President Nixon's visit to China and the thawing of relations there that have changed history. So this is Pakistan's meteor. This is what it likes to do.
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Emma Nelson
Just explain now what the relationship between Iran and Pakistan, and indeed Iran and Afghanistan, means for both countries.
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Lyn O'Donnell
Well, Pakistan has, as I was just saying, was the sponsor essentially of the Taliban for what it calls strategic depths. What it was hoping to do was bring the Taliban back to power in neighboring Afghanistan so that it would be able to have a buffer state to counteract India's regional ambitions for dominance in South Asia. Afghanistan and Pakistan both share long borders with Iran and close relationships. There are very many thousands of Afghan refugees in Pakistan and in Iran, Baluchistan, where there is a very nasty civil war raging on Pakistan's side, shares a long border with Balochistan of Iran. They can both of these countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan, can expect to have refugee flows as people leave Iran to escape the Israel America war on the regime there. The Pakistan is also home to the world's second largest population of Shiites, Muslim Shiites, and Iran is the world's biggest population of Shiites, and it's a Shiite regime. So there has been in recent weeks a lot of pressure on the Pakistani authorities from Shiite religious and community leaders. But they've also had a lot of pushback from the most powerful man in the country, who is the chief of the General staff. General. Well, now, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who basically said to the Shiite leaders, if you don't like Pakistan, if you like Iran more, then you can go to Iran. We're getting on with doing what we do.
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Emma Nelson
Lyn, Finally, a brief note on whether this huge focus on the Middle east war with Iran at the center of this is actually taking much needed focus away from what's happening between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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Lyn O'Donnell
Yeah, well, as I was saying, it's not a sudden border flare up. It's been long running since the Pakistanis helped the Taliban retake control of Afghanistan. The Taliban have become like errant schoolboys. They won't do what they're told. They say, we don't need you anymore. We're on our own. Thanks very much. But in the meantime, they're also sheltering about two dozen transnational jihadist organization and some of those especially the Pakistani Taliban. The TTP directly threaten the existence of the Pakistani state. And so what Pakistan is doing, having lost its patience with trying to talk the Afghan Taliban into reining in these nasty groups, is basically bombing Taliban military sites in order to get them, the Taliban to play ball and pull back its proxies.
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Emma Nelson
Lyn o', Donnell, columnist for Foreign Policy magazine based now in Melbourne. Thank you so much for joining me on the glob list. Still to come on today's program. Now that's a public service announcement from India's government calling for citizens to take part in the country's census. We'll find out how 3 million officials will gather information about the 1.4 billion people who live there. Stay tuned.
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UBS Narrator
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Emma Nelson
819 in Zurich, which was, which is where we head now because it's newspaper time. Joining us from our studio in Zurich is Emily Isohar, who's managing director for Peace mediation at Etihar in Zurich. Very good morning to you, Amelie. How's Zurich looking this morning?
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Emily Isohar
It's looking a little bit rainy, I have to say. I did get a little bit wet as I was biking to the Monocle Cafe this morning.
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Emma Nelson
Well, we are very grateful. Have you dried off?
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Philippe Zuber
Yes.
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Emma Nelson
Good.
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Emily Isohar
And I have a warm cup of coffee in front of me.
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Emma Nelson
Exactly. That's a welcome you should get. Thank you for that. Let's have a look at a story that's dominating the presence in the Baltic region at once, which is this profusion of drones which have been entering Finnish airspace, Estonian airspace, and. And not much international focus has been given what is a bit of a crisis.
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Emily Isohar
Exactly. If you were to look at the Finnish news this morning, it's all about these Ukrainian drones that indeed ended up in Finland. And as you mentioned, it's not uncommon for similar things to have happened in the Baltic states. So Ukraine has recently been carrying out drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure near the Gulf of Finland. So this area of the Baltic Sea between Estonia, Finland and Russia. And over this past. And two drones ended up on the wrong side of the border, crashing near a southeastern Finnish city of Kovala. And actually yesterday there was another unmanned object, likely a drone Again seen crashing in the town of Parikla, which is again close to the Finnish Russian border. And Ukraine on their part right away apologized to Finland for the incident, stressing that the drones were never intended to enter Finnish territory, and again pointed to Russian electronic interference as the likely cause of these incidences. But in the Finnish news, what is really being focused on today is what should the Finnish government have done about this? And more importantly, perhaps what should be done in the future in terms of informing the general public when these incidences happen, but also what could be done on the defense front to prevent such incidences in the future.
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Emma Nelson
Lots of questions there. How do the. Or how have the Finns been told about what's happening, happening?
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Emily Isohar
So Prime Minister Petri Orpo said very strongly the Finns can sleep peacefully. There's no indication that Finland was targeted, but he did mention that it feels like the war is coming closer to us. Foreign Minister Elena Valtonen on her part said that Finland will not or has not asked Ukraine to reduce its long range drone strikes on Russian oil facilities in the Gulf of Finland. So Ukraine, Ukraine is allowed to continue these attacks. There is an investigation taking place in Finland, however, when it comes to the information flow and communication, so no Finnish kind of citizens. The public was not informed while this was happening on Sunday. So the military was able to detect one of these drones. Nonetheless, the public was not informed. This is not the practice in Ukraine or in Baltic states like Estonia where you might get an alert from an app that the government has put in place or an SMS alert alert when there's an unmanned object flying in the air. So Finland is looking into this and they're in fact trying to develop a drone app, if you will, by 2027 and use SMS alerts in the future. So they're looking into it. There's a little bit of frustration on the part of the public that they weren't informed, but the government says that they're trying to revamp their policies to make sure that information flows better in the future.
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Emma Nelson
And this is just one part of the wider security discussions that must naturally follow what's happened.
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Emily Isohar
Absolutely. So again, it's this dynamic that drones are cheap, they're hard to detect, but they're also increasingly used in warfare, while at the same time the air defense systems we have in Finland, but more broadly in Europe were simply not designed for this kind of threat. So there is this bigger conversation taking place at the level of the EU and NATO to build entirely new anti drone defense systems. Rapid response anti drone teams Some cheaper, more flexible air defense systems, a drone wall, if you will, in Europe. That would be a network of sensors and systems along the eastern border in particular to not only detect but also stop drones before they cross into EU airspace. Because again, what we use currently is very expensive. Also in the case of Finland over the weekend, you had Hornets flying in the air, which is of course extremely expensive when you compare it with the relatively low costs of drones.
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Emma Nelson
Let's move on to a story that's in the NZZ about Friedrich Metz, the German chancellor, and the problem with Syrian refugees.
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Emily Isohar
Exactly. So Nzetz continues reporting on the visit of the interim Syrian president Ahmed Al Shara to Berlin this past Monday. When during this visit the German chancellor met, suggested that up to 80% of Syrians living in Germany could return to Syria within the next three years. He since then taken back some of these comments and contextualized a little bit that he focuses on voluntary return. But nt said this morning takes a look at this suggestion by the chancellor from a feasibility perspective and they answer a few questions. For instance, how many people are we actually talking about? And they suggest that around 940,000 Syrians live in Germany. 80% of that number would be around 750,000 people. However, the legal status of the Syrians living in Germany vary quite widely. So many have protected status, some have permanent residency, and there is even a small group that is already required to leave but cannot be deported for different reasons. So the number of Syrians eligible for return is actually gradually decreasing as many are becoming either permanent residents or citizens.
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Emma Nelson
Sorry, Emily, let's move on. In the time that we've got, let's talk about something that we're talking about business and we're talking about geopolitics and the crisis of the Iranian war. How much is it affecting where you are?
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Emily Isohar
It's interesting. So the Swiss public broadcasting company SRF had an interesting article this morning on the Swiss Alps and more specifically the Bernese Oberlin region that relies heavily on tourists from Asia and the Gulf as well, and the implications of the war in Iran on this region economically. So the main issue of course, is aviation disruption. So you have fewer flights, you have rerouted airspaces, much higher ticket prices. And it seems that there is some early impact. So noticeable uncertainty, not necessarily a full collision, collapse of the tourism sector. But some specific hotels and tour operators have been heavily hit already in extreme cases. There's some hotels that 85% of their guests come from Asia, and there's one incident of a hotel having reported within days of the conflict that there were 120 group cancellations, so around 5,000 guests. And the key question is now, what will happen this upcoming summer that is peak season for Asian and golf tour tourists in Switzerland. They come in their hundreds of thousands. And the hope is, of course, that the situation would stabilize so that tourists can come to the Bernese Alps, to the Interlaken region.
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Emma Nelson
It shows you just how local economies can be touched so profoundly by what's happening on the other side of the world.
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Emily Isohar
Absolutely. The world is, as we always say, globalized and interconnected. So what happens in one part of the world will inevitably affect, affect other parts of the region. And, and I mean, we were just having conversations earlier or you were on on Pakistan again, another spillover effect of what's happening in Iran in the Gulf of Hormut. So, again, absolutely, there's various spillover effects.
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Emma Nelson
Emily is our managing director for peace mediation at Etihad Zurich. Thank you for joining us in the Zurich studio. You're listening to the GLOBALIST on Monocle Radio. The time here in London is 7.28am and look now at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. In Kuwait, officials say a fire has broken out at the international airport following Iranian drone strikes. An attack on a facility in Bahrain has resulted in a fire. And Britain's Maritime Security Agency says a tanker has been hit by an unknown missile in waters off Qatar. Pope Leo has said he hopes President Trump is looking for an off ramp to end the war in the Middle East. The first American pope urged all leaders to return to the table for dialogue. In other news, Russia's Defense Ministry says a military transport plane has crashed after contact was lost as it flew over Crimea. All 29 passengers and crew were killed. It blamed a technical malfunction. A judge in Washington has temporarily blocked President Trump from going ahead with the construction of a ballroom on the demolished east wing of the White House. The district judge said the president was the steward, but not the owner of the building. And Italy have missed out on qualification for this year's football World cup, but the Democratic Republic of Congo are through for the first time in 52 years. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. Now for a closer look. Behind some of the headlines, here's Tomas Lewis on the resignation and controversy surrounding Air Canada's now former CEO.
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Thomas Lewis
The investigation into the crash that killed two young Air Canada pilots, Antoine Forest and Mackenzie Gunther, at LaGuardia Airport in New York two Sundays ago was hampered for a time last week by the partial government shutdown in the US which left investigators stranded in the long queues that blighted scores of American airports. That delay has only prolonged the sense of shock and indeed, grief in Canada at the crash, in particular in Montreal, where the flight took off from and where Canada's national carrier is headquartered. But then came this condolence video from Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau.
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Lyn O'Donnell
Hello, bonjour.
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Philippe Zuber
I'm Michael Rousseau.
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Thomas Lewis
And it's the use of that word bonjour at the beginning of his tribute and another merci used at the end that has caused such deep offence in Quebec, because that was the only French Rousseau used to convey his condolences on behalf of Canada's flag carrier, which as such is mandated by law to operate fully in Canada's two official languages, English and French. As Bloomberg News correspondent in Canada explained on the air on Monday, if you
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Emma Nelson
watch the video, the thing you have to understand is, is he's clearly reading it. You know, he's clearly reading off of a teleprompter, some sort of prompter. Why could some of those words not have been in French? That's. That's the argument.
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Thomas Lewis
By Thursday last week, nearly 2,000 complaints had been lodged by the public with the federal government in Ottawa. It's the fact that Antoine Forest, one of the two pilots killed, was a French language speaker himself that has made the anger towards Michael Russo all the more prone. Movingly, Forest was given an informal honor guard in the rain by 200 or so pilots and cabin crew outside Air Canada's headquarters in Montreal on the day that his body was transported home.
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Lyn O'Donnell
He's not respecting our laws. He's not respecting cubicles. One of his employees died. He died, and he didn't even make the effort to read a message written by his team in French.
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Thomas Lewis
Even Prime Minister Mark Carney, the quality of whose own French became a brief subject of debate during last year's general election in Canada, was quick to respond to the furor.
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Emma Nelson
We live, as I just said, in a bilingual country.
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Emily Isohar
We proudly live in a bilingual country. And companies like Air Canada particularly have
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Emma Nelson
a responsibility to always communicate and both officially, languages.
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Thomas Lewis
Regardless of the situation, the parity of languages remains a live subject in Canada, and it's an issue that Rousseau has tangled himself in on several occasions in the past. So despite his later apology for his monolingual condolence video, as well as his claim that he has undertaken 300 hours of French language classes to date, Air Canada's stakeholders made it pretty clear pretty quickly that on this account occasion, it was time for him to go so while Canadians await the findings from the investigation into the crash that killed the two pilots and injured dozens of those on board Flight 8646 from Montreal, Air Canada will now begin its search for its next CEO. And whoever he or she turns out to be, and whatever their credentials that secure them Air Canada's top job, it's a certainty that their ability and willingness to speak French will be top of that list. For Monocle, I'm Thomas Lewis.
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Emma Nelson
Thomas Lewis in Toronto. Thank you so much. You're listening to the Globalist. The time in New Delhi is three minutes past midday, which is where we head next. Because India starts to count its population Today, the Census 2027 is being carried out after a delay of several years caused by Covid. So how do you go about creating an accurate of the citizens in the world's most populous nation? Well, I'm joined now by Maya Sharma, a journalist and educator based in Bangalore. A very good afternoon to you, Maya.
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Maya Sharma
Good afternoon, Emma.
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Emma Nelson
So we have how many people who need to be counted and how many people who are counting?
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Maya Sharma
Well, it's, it's an amazingly massive project. Estimates of the population of India Cross 1.4 billion. The United Nations Population Fund assumed that it overtook China as the most populous nation in the world back in 2020. The 2011 census showed 1.2 billion, and it's expected to be over 1.4 billion this time round. So to count over a billion, well, you need millions. We're looking at over 3 million officials who will be part of this entire counting. That will be government officials, It'll be teachers of government schools. It'll be local officials who will be on the job for a year, one year, to count all these people and get details about them. It's being called, of course, the 2027 census because that is where, when the data is likely to come out. It's just such a mammoth thing. And the size of the country, the variety of the country means that some of the counting will be done at different times in different stages. In the Himalayan places, the enumeration of the population will be done a little bit earlier than it would for the rest of the country because of the snowy conditions. So it's just an enormous challenge. The world's biggest population census, and it started today.
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Emma Nelson
And some of them are trying to do this online as well because there's only so much shoe leather that could be worn out with this.
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Maya Sharma
Well, yes, it is. There is an online option. It started, the counting has started today in Karnataka, where I live, and there are 15 days for each state. For people who want to fill it in online, we can fill it in online. There are 33 questions to be answered in this first phase. Phase one, those certificate questions can be answered online and then you're given a unique registration number, unique ID number, which you can give to the people who will be wearing out their shoelaces coming house to house. They will either ask the questions or take the number which has been generated. So that happens in two phases. This first set of questions which we'll be answering are to do with house listing and housing census. They'll basically be looking at accommodation at houses, which will form the basis of the next phase. And we'll be answering questions like Internet access, how many couples are there living in the home, toilets, what's the main cooking fuel you use, things like that. It's to assess the house itself, to assess the standard of living and to enumerate the housing, the houses, the dwellings, which will then give a later thing. This goes on for 15 days and then the people will come around, physically will come around to check whether you filled it online properly or to take the details for people who have not filled it online. This is phase one. There's a phase two which will go into demographic details like caste and other education, migration, fertility. So it's just a mammoth, mammoth exercise done over two phases and it's likely to be completed by March next year. One year, 3 million people on the job.
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Emma Nelson
A quick question about the cast counting. This is new, isn't it?
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Maya Sharma
That is correct. They did attempt to do a caste Census back in 2011, which is when the last census was done, but before that it hasn't been done since the British rule back in the 1930s. So 1931 is the last time a caste census was done. They did try it in 2011, but concerns over the way data was collected meant that it was not shared, it was not considered. So this is the first time.
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Emma Nelson
It is a tricky issue.
- [37:05]
Maya Sharma
It is a difficult social issue because while one would wish away any caste, any, any consideration of caste in 2026, it is a reality in the country and there are still reservations given in education, in jobs for people of different castes, who have been traditionally underprivileged, who have not received the benefits of other countries castes. So it's very important when it comes to social welfare schemes, when it comes to this reservation itself, to know numbers. So this, yes, this is the first time since 1931 that caste will be assessed, the data will be assessed to get the numbers of people of different castes in India.
- [37:41]
Emma Nelson
Maya Sharma, based in Bangalore. Thank you so much for joining us on the line. You're with Monocle Radio. Now, the world of travel is finding itself at a point where for the luxury hotelier, catering for the ultra high net worth guest is essential. And it can be a joy. And creating joy is what is stitched through the approach of the CEO of Kurzner, Philippe Zuber. He sat down with me earlier to talk about how the company's brands, such as Atlantis, One and Only and Rare Finds, have one guiding principle.
- [38:17]
Philippe Zuber
Joy is absolutely key to everything we do. And joy is the sentiment that we have to create for our guests and customer while they walk through a one and only hotel. And it's the only way for us to align our entire colleagues to one core objective, and it's only one thing they have to do when they come to work, is to recreate joy. So it's a very, very strong statement. Joy is actually what is the base of humanity, is the interactions with the people that you love. And if you know that you have an ecosystem and an environment that everybody is focusing only into one thing, we create joy. It makes life much more simple.
- [39:04]
Emma Nelson
How do you go about doing that? Making sure that every person who works or indeed stays in one of your properties is absolutely focused on this element of joy.
- [39:14]
Philippe Zuber
So in one and only, that was one of the fundamental changes that we did back in the day. We have implemented this we create joy philosophy 10 years ago. And the idea towards that was to really make sure that the colleagues are aligned to one mission. You know that in a hotel you have more than 60 different type of job or skills which are needed. You know, it goes from cook to housekeeping to landscaping, business analyst, GM and so on. And it's actually a very complex environment to make everyone working towards the same objective. And if you can really focus again back of who we are as a hospitality company and what one and only brand needs to deliver, it is fundamental to this. We create joy. So putting that pack of a non scripted employee philosophy was helping all of our colleagues to say, if anything that I'll have to do, I'll have to recreate joy and something. It's about amazing experiences and everlasting memories. And if you can align the sentiment towards that objection. You have absolutely a winning approach. And the fun fact is that it has been extremely well received by the colleagues and it has made a game changing into the way that we have been able to deliver those experiences to our customer.
- [40:37]
Emma Nelson
And when you have that sort of unity of thought and unity of purpose among your workers that obviously needs to be transmitted to the people who are staying in your properties. Now your clients are the, you know what they're calling the aspirational luxury traveler. They have money to spend. So for them, luxury is often time. How do you ensure that the time that they spend in your hotels and your properties is incredibly well spent.
- [41:07]
Philippe Zuber
So for that we have one very clear positioning is that that we are just adapting to the pace of the customer. The customer is decided to go to a hotel and he might have different needs, different expectations during the time of the day. He needs to have one thing impeccable services around the entire journey. But he needs to have colleagues and people that adapt to his mood and being able to really convert the stay to an emotional experiences. And each if the core objective into the service experiences is not too much about the technicity of the services, but is to align mentally with the guest and being able to adapt to himself. This we create joy philosophy is just a fundamental base of what hospitality is all about. And what we found out is that customers like to be surprised. Customers are very open and they just want to have have the pace to be surprised and being unscripted moments.
- [42:10]
Emma Nelson
It's the idea of unreasonable hospitality, isn't it? So can you give us an example of a couple of surprises that you spring on your guests that will make them slightly take their breath away?
- [42:20]
Philippe Zuber
Yeah. One example came into my mind. It happened in one and only Palmia in Mexico. So we had a wedding couple. They've been organizing the wedding and have been making six months of planning, having all of the guests guest. And one of the wishes for the bride was to have a full. We have a church on property, so can make it very, very bespoke and very special. And they were willing to have a rose petals around the stair to go up to the church. And the wedding went extremely well. It has been a great success. And two days later she has received a gift from our host, the butler. And what he did, he kept all the rose petals and his uncle was having a tequila factory and he had put a perfumes off of the roses that was on the staircase. You're thinking about the unscripted moment. Nobody will have defined this moment at any kind of time. This couple are fan of one and only for the rest of their life until they stay together, which of course they do.
- [43:24]
Emily Isohar
Of course.
- [43:25]
Emma Nelson
So tell us a little bit. Let's move geographically, let's spin the globe a tiny bit. You've been based in dubai since what, 20 years working for other hospitality brands who we shall not name. How has Dubai changed in terms of how the market is? It's got pretty crowded now, hasn't it? And what you've learned since being out
- [43:43]
Philippe Zuber
there has been absolutely game changing for my career to be in Dubai. Dubai as a destination is extremely bold and they have one muscles that very few place in the world do have is spirit. Anything has to happen because they're willing into this period to really being relevant as the global destinations. So anything that happens has to happen. Now give you an example. Atlantis the Palm has opened in 2008 and it's a kind of a key success. We have opened three years ago, Atlantis do Royale. This is a mega project. It's 760 quays, it's 230 branded residents, is more than 15 restaurants, is a fountain show. It's so many things happened. We did the opening with Beyonce which was a global act, but this is an extraordinary success, has been rated the number six hotel of the world. And we didn't have that time to put this hotel from designing to opening. It took eight years and very few destinations of the world have the capability and the capacity to do that. And if you think about all the mega project project we had opened another one, which is one and only one. Zabil is one of these new iconic building. The one Zabil tower that you have in Dubai, it's all about icon1 after the others and how you make sure in a short period of time that you create a legacy, but you're able as well to create a soul. And I would like to say that working into these speed factors has been a game changer for me. And to whoever wants to come to Dubai, I told them, say Dubai is wonderful because you have the lifestyle. It's a very, very mature destination now. But you have to know that you will have to work under speed. And some people cannot handle that. It's very, very special what you have to deal with.
- [45:34]
Emma Nelson
And that was Philippe Zubal, CEO of Kurtzner, speaking to me earlier. You're listening to the globalist
- [45:43]
UBS Narrator
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- [46:21]
Emma Nelson
07:46 Here in London. Let's hear the latest media news. Joining me in the studio, Vincent McEvinney, journalist and monocle Radio regular. Good morning, Vinnie. Good morning. A new media hat. Yes, I like this. Good fun. Tell us what's going on. We must start with Disney. Not a good one week.
- [46:37]
Vincent McEvinney
No. They've got a new CEO after Bob Iger's second tenure had finished. He sort of fumbled the ball when he retired from Disney. From the first time put in place Bob Chapek, he then had to come back and save the company. And his priority over the last few years has been not only getting it out of COVID but finding someone that could take it on. And in the end it was Josh d' Amaro who was head of effectively Parks and Cruises, as they'd say in succession. He was the head of the Disneyland Live experience. And he's come from that world which is obviously, you know, it's a, it's a physical thing. It's very, you know, it's easy to sort of see how it works and how to run it and do those kind of things. And he's now the head of the whole company. And in the first week he has basically been facing challenges on multiple vectors because the Disney had done this sort of billion dollar deal with OpenAI to lend some of their IP so characters, for instance, Marvel characters, Star wars characters to their Sora app, which allowed users to create their own sort of videos, movies, TV shows. And then as we understand it, with no notice, OpenAI simply shut down the app because it was one expensive. It was taking up too much processing power as well. Secondly. But this is their sort of. They've pulled the rug out of Disney, this media behemoth and it's sort of really sort of Ratt Disney and others as to what happens with these, with these huge investments that they're all making in AI. He's also got issues when it comes to, you know, the. There's this scandal that's erupted in TV where they took someone in their sort of flagship reality show, the Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, put them into a sagging franchise, basically the Bachelorette. And the whole series had to be pulled before it aired in the US to the cost of around $100 million they think because video emerged of incident of domestic violence that was known about, but the video itself tanked the show. So he's gone from the sort of pleasant world of parks and Cruises into this sort of multi dimensional media empire trying to get his hands on it.
- [48:51]
Emma Nelson
Okay, we wish him the very best of luck managing all that. Let's move on to HBO Max. It is also Having problems as well. Its parent company, Warner Brothers and Paramount. That was supposed to be the great murder. After Netflix pulled out, that stalled.
- [49:07]
Vincent McEvinney
Yeah, that is stalling at the moment. There are sort of regulatory issues to go through. There are issues as well about the amount of debt that will be taken on to complete this merger. So that is going on. It had looked quite for a while like Netflix was actually going to be the one to get Warner Brothers. But now this is sort of two studios coming together. There are issues, you know, people like the Writers Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, actors in America, they are sort of raising, you know, concerns about this because there will be huge consolidation behind the scene scenes. There will likely be huge redundancies across departments because of duplication if the two companies do come together. But it'll also be one less sort of option for someone to go to because it will take sort of two gatekeepers that you could pitch a project to and just combine it into one. Meanwhile, at the same time, HBO Max, which hbo, is a division of Paramount. It is sort of the prestige tv. So it's like Game of Thrones and things like that. It is finally launching in Europe, but it's having a bit of a minefield because it's got lots of existing deals with previous EU broadcasters. But it's basically staking the house, it seems, on getting this new Harry Potter show out by Christmas, despite the issues that have been around that franchise with J.K. rowling.
- [50:23]
Emma Nelson
Okay, nothing's really settled this week, is it? Everyone's. Everyone's sort of going into unexpected and difficult areas, including the new Director General of the BBC. Yes, this has not been a good week for them either.
- [50:35]
Vincent McEvinney
No, this has been a difficult week for the BBC. Matt Britton is about to take over. He's come from being the boss of GOOG in Europe, in the Middle east and Africa. Someone with no broadcasting experience but has experience running a large organization. He will be taking the helm as the Director General, but he had already huge challenges facing him, not least the charter renewal. The BBC charter runs out at the end of next year. The future of the TV license fee and how you rework the funding model in the modern world. He's also, of course, got the court case with Donald Trump. Do you continue to fight it or do you settle that? And crafting a sort of strategic vision for the BBC at a time time where it is still popular, it is still trusted, but they need to find audiences where audiences are now. So, for instance, doing a deal with his old company, Google, and getting the content out on YouTube, but being able to get a better cut of the revenue, those are all the big picture issues he's facing. Internally, morale is rock bottom after years of redundancies and anger at the previous management for the way it has mishandled things. And the departing CEO leaving a private problem with Scott Mills as well. The presenter of the biggest radio show in the UK, the Radio 2 Breakfast show, has been sacked by the corporation over historic allegations which were investigated by the police and the Crown Prosecution Service. No prosecution was brought and yet still it seems the BBC has thought he needs to go. So whether this was the previous Director General clearing the decks, it will still land in the inbox of the new Director General.
- [52:04]
Emma Nelson
Coming in, more headaches for those trying to maintain BBC Values. Vincent McEvinney, journalist and monocle Radio regular, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist on Monaco Radio. Now, Japan is currently in the middle of cherry blossom season. Tourists are visiting some places, though, are cancelling their festivals because they're worried there are going to be too many people. Well, joining us from our Tokyo studio is Fiona Wilson, Monocle's Tokyo Bureau chief and Senior Asia editor. A very good afternoon to you, Fiona.
- [52:38]
Fiona Wilson
Hi, Emma.
- [52:39]
Emma Nelson
Walk us through cherry blossom season where you are.
- [52:42]
Fiona Wilson
Well, I'm, you know, the Monocle office is near Yoyogi park, which is one of the big venues for cherry blossom viewing. And I was there at the weekend. I mean, the interesting thing about cherry blossom, and this is kind of the whole point, the weather is very up and down. You can get these really warm days which we got on Saturday and Sunday. I think they were the peak, to be honest. And we're now in this slightly blustery, windy, slightly rainy weather, which is classic cherry blossom. This is the sort of transience of life. This is what inspires all the haiku. So it can disappear as quickly as it arrives. So at the moment, yes, it's looking quite gray out there and I have a beautiful cherry tree outside my bedroom window at home. And overnight it was rather denuded of its blossom. So we're in a sort of transitional moment for cherry blossom.
- [53:29]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. How much is the conversation about over tourism dominating this year's season?
- [53:38]
Fiona Wilson
Well, I mean, you know, it's like everything at the moment, everything very photogenic is overcrowded. That's just a fact of life here at the moment. It may pass. We've, you know, last year we saw a record number of tourists here, hit 42 million, highest ever. And it's, you know, no surprise, it's absolutely packed. So places that were traditionally very popular, Nakameguro. There's this waterway which is lined with cherry trees and it is spectacular. Usually covered in landscape. The bars people are standing outside. This year they've actually put barriers on the roads that cross the water to stop people stopping in the middle of the road and taking the classic photo. Shinjuku Gyoen, which is big national garden. Beautiful cherries there. And I wanted to go there and I noticed you've now got to reserve during cherry blossom. So there are changes. What I did was, you know, there are amazing cherries all over the city. I just went to a place, place near me. It's not very glamorous, but amazing little row of cherry trees and sat under one of those. I was quite happy.
- [54:38]
Emma Nelson
Some places actually have cancelled their cherry blossom festivals as well. I think it's in Fuji Yoshida and they have decided that it's just not worth it. I mean, is there a serious problem here with. Over tourism?
- [54:53]
Fiona Wilson
Yeah, I think, you know, one of the big problems in this place that you're talking about, Fujiyoshida, there's a moment in the year when it has the most ridiculously Japanese view you've ever seen. You've got Mount Fuji, you've got a pagoda and you've got cherries in blossom. It's the dream. Everyone has seen these pictures on Instagram and they all want this exact photo. And they usually. I mean, it's not a very old festival, I have to say, but it's only been going for a decade, the festival, and they tried to sort of marshal it a bit. Last year they had quarter of a million people in 18 days or something and it was out of control. This year they've cancelled the festival. No banners. But you know, that is not going to stop tourists. They've seen these photos and they want them. And I think this is the big issue. It's people really wanting to catch these images. Now, I don't know what you do about that. And they're not going to be satisfied unless they get them.
- [55:41]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. Because local communities do need to be preserved. Their integrity is essential. But you also need to keep the tourists coming at a certain pace, don't you?
- [55:51]
Fiona Wilson
Yeah. I mean, and I think that's really acknowledged by people here that the revenue from tourism is very welcome. I think the problem that we've often spoken about, haven't we? You and I have talked about this quite a lot. People are going to the same places and that's as true At Cherry Blossom, as it is for any other, you know, event or building in Tokyo, Kyoto is absolutely mobbed. I was just talking to my colleague Ryuma. He was in Kyoto at the weekend, said it was just so crowded. But, you know, even in Kyoto, there are quiet places. I think the problem is this concentration in a few places. So my recommendation to people is just, you know, turn off that main road and you'll find something very interesting. And when Cherry blossoms are out in Yoyogi park or Nakameguro or Shinjukugyo, and they're out all over the city, so every little side street will have an interesting little cherry view, I think.
- [56:38]
Emma Nelson
Now, speaking of Ryuma, we have but one minute to talk about the fact that he wanted me to ask you about bicycles.
- [56:45]
Fiona Wilson
Yes. Well, the law's changing today. Cyclists better get ready. There's now 113 new viruses violations, and what they're doing now is introducing these blue tickets. They used to only be for motorcycles and cars. These are the kind of you can be fined on the spot. So now if you're, you know, maybe if you go through a red light, you're on your mobile phone, you'll be fined on the spot. And the idea is to stop these sort of minor violations rather than having to have a criminal record and a trip to court. So they're trying to sort of clean up road safety. I don't know, it looked quite confusing when I looked at it all, but we'll see how it pans out.
- [57:21]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. I think there's 113 types of violations. I mean, that sounds rather attractive in what you could actually do wrong. It's quite a great prospect.
- [57:29]
Fiona Wilson
Yes. I didn't even realise some of the things, and actually, I wouldn't be trying some of them. And one of them included, you know, holding an umbrella while you're riding. I wouldn't even attempt that. But, you know, people don't like to get their hair wet here, so they do use umbrellas when I certainly wouldn't bother, you know, two people on a bike that's gonna get you a ticket. But, you know, more seriously, it is a bit of an issue for people who take their kids to school on these Mama Charis, these electric bikes. They're concerned that they may get a blue ticket. So I think there's going to be a bit of latitude with how these fines are applied and hopefully some common sense.
- [58:02]
Emma Nelson
Fiona Wilson in our Tokyo Bureau, thank you so much for joining us on Monocle Radio. And that's all the time we have for today's program, the warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers Hassan Anderson, Chris Chermack, Angelica Jopson and and Ryuma Takahashi. Our research was Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager was Elliot Greenfield with editing assistance by Lily Austin and Hunter Wang. After the headlines. There's more music on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London. The Globalist is back at the same time tomorrow. Join me for that if you can. But for now from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thank you very much for listening.
- [58:50]
UBS Narrator
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