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The Globalist
Trump-Xi summit: US president arrives in Beijing weakened by Iran war and tariff setbacks
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Chris Chermak
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 13 May 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is the Globalist. I'm Chris Chermak. Coming up, a lot of good things can happen. He'll bring up Taiwan, I think more than I will. But I think that a discussion will be a little bit about energy and about the very beautiful country of Iran. President Donald Trump on his way to China together with 16American CEOs and hoping that despite his remarks there, the meeting with Xi Jinping will focus on focus on trade and business deals as well. Then Keir Starmer survives the day and King Charles will present the government's policies today. Should Europe pay close attention to the chaos in the United Kingdom after that,
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Guy Delaunay
Bosnia and Herzegovina's ultimate power has called it quits. What does the high representative's resignation mean for the country and its long suffering people? Find out with Monocle's man in the Balkans. That's me, Guy Delaunay.
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Chris Chermak
Thank you, Guy. Later in the show, we'll also have the first in our weekly news series ahead of the World cup this week, Andrew Muller looks at the first timers club of countries that have qualified. We'll also get the newspapers and transport news and we'll check in at the Cannes Film Festival which opened last night. That's all up ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Iran has reportedly reached deals with Iraq and Pakistan to allow the shipping of oil and natural gas out of the Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz, Bahamas. Prime Minister Philip Davis and his Progressive Liberal Party appear to have won a second consecutive term in office for the first time in nearly three decades. And last night saw the first semi final of the Eurovision Song Contest in Vienna with favorites Finland and also Israel among those making it through to the final. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. But first, US President Trump arrives in China today for a once delayed meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, likely to discuss the still unresolved war in Iran, but also much more far reaching economic and business deals. He'll be joined by more than a dozen American CEOs, hoping to bring investment back with them and possibly a more permanent end to the tariff war between the two countries. Well, I'm joined now right here in the studio by David, independent advisor and commentator on media, journalism and China, and by Dr. Z. Yang, research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. Great to have you both here. David, let me start with you and the presentation of this dozens of CEOs appearing is this Donald Trump with his sort of let's make a business deal hat on.
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David Schlesinger
Well, Trump badly needs a win, and I think that's the fundamental mismatch that you have here. Trump needs a win. Xi Jinping simply needs to project strength and stability. So Trump is looking for Boeing beans, beef. He needs to get China buying American soybean, buying American beef, buying American airplanes, so he can go home and say, look, I got something for you. And in return, it's pretty clear what he's offering. Yesterday, the US put the $11 billion Taiwan arms deal in review. So clearly Taiwan is a bargaining chip. And there was a last minute addition to that CEO delegation which was crucial. And that was Jensen Huang of Nvidia. So clearly chip restrictions are on the table as well. Presumably Trump's not going to give away everything, but he will probably make moves to keep China happy, both on Taiwan and on chips. And in return, he gets
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Chris Chermak
Dr. Ziang to bring you in on this. We'll get to Taiwan in just a moment. But also on the business side, I just wanted to ask you whether President Xi is facing any pressure to open up to make kind of business deals. Do they even trust Donald Trump to make a deal on trade and tariffs after everything that's happened over the last year or so?
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Dr. Z Yang
Sure. So China views the long term US plan as one of containment. And Beijing knows that Washington views itself as a primary rival of the United States. So despite the current conflict between the US and its allies, it does not mean the US will retreat from its goal of containment in the long term. So at the same time, you know, Beijing view us as a declining superpower and itself as a rising nation. And under Trump, the US's global influence has been weakening, demonstrated through the ongoing Iran war and the global energy crunch. So Beijing views Trump as a leader that's coming into the capital, as one that's bruised by the failed war and facing a highly challenging midterm election back home, not to mention dwindling public support. So Beijing does see some opportunity to push for his core interests in the summit with Trump, especially when it comes to the issue of Taiwan.
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Chris Chermak
David, it's really interesting hearing that, the way that China perceives this and probably not wrong given everything that's happening with the war in Iran as well. You talked about Taiwan. I'm curious if you just expect Trump to go in with this usual kind of transactional mix that you were describing of kind of geopolitics and trade. Normally it would be one or the other, but with Trump, it often is both. He might want help on Iran, Russia, give away on Taiwan, get business deals. It's all one kind of big grand package with him, isn't it?
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David Schlesinger
Well, I think the real problem with Trump is that he has the attention span of a goldfish and he's not going to think about the long term implications of what he does. For example, on Taiwan, I'm sure that China is going to push very hard for a change in the US Wording on Taiwan independence. Hitherto, the US has always said that it is not in favor of Taiwan independence. China would really like to hear that the US Opposes Taiwan independence. For Trump, that's probably just a small word change. He probably doesn't even think about the implications. But that would send shockwaves through Taiwan and probably through most of Asia thinking about how the US Is changing strategically, when in fact maybe the US Isn't changing strategically, it's just Trump making a split second decision.
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Chris Chermak
Yang, to bring you in on that, then what is China looking for on Taiwan and would they be happy given this, what David's talking about with how Donald Trump presents things? What kind of official change in language might they be looking for so that anything that is done on Taiwan is not, say, just a whim of Donald Trump?
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Dr. Z Yang
Yeah, I gotta agree. Agree with David here. So Taiwan remains a major problem in bilateral U. S. China relations, as we all know. You know, Beijing strongly dislikes the current government in Taiwan under President Lightning, who adopts a more, you know, combative stance when it comes to crossroad relations and opposes China's official narratives regarding the future and status of Taiwan. So in recent years, China has stepped up military exercises in the strait to basically showcase its ability to wage war and prepare its troops for a potential conflict in the region. However, we also must understand that recent instability within the PLA itself, such as the purges and disappearances of high ranking officers, continue to undercut the PLA's overall readiness. Basically, the Chinese high command has been reduced to a skeleton of its former self. And no military can win war without experience and professional leaders at the helm. So I would say that China will try to use stratagems to reach its goals on Taiwan, you know, such as convincing the US to limit arms sales, as well as, you know, getting Trump to basically publicly oppose Taiwan independence. You know, rather than this, the US's current position of, you know, issuing statements about it, that's not supporting, you know, Taiwan independence. However, you know, in return, you know, China might be offering to, say, release certain political prisoners or reduce support to Iran or maybe purchasing more US agricultural products.
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Chris Chermak
David, you were saying that Donald Trump might not be aware of some of the differences in language, but are others in the United States, others in his administration aware of that? And do you think in that sense he might face some pressure if he scales back arms purchases for arms sales to Taiwan? Scales back, adjusts the language, might he face pressure? Might this become a thing in the us?
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David Schlesinger
Well, within the US government, Trump has shown he can get away with anything that he wants, and I think that's one of the real problems currently. But you're right, his administration is filled with China hawks who would shudder at that idea. Certainly the Biden administration was no great friend of China either.
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Chris Chermak
And neither was Trump in his first term.
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David Schlesinger
And neither was Trump in his first term. Exactly. So I. The problem is that for Trump, it's a personal relationship with Xi Jinping, number one. Number two, he likes strong men in general, and number three, he badly needs a win. So I think he will be prepared to make some pretty significant trades just so he can go back and say, look, I've made this deal. The other thing, this is a G2. This is the relationship of two equal big superpowers, the only ones that really matter in the world.
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Chris Chermak
Yang. I just wonder more broadly when we look at this summit, I mean, I've read various versions of this, that it's, you know, a high stakes one that could decide relations between these two countries for years to come, or an often delayed one with two leaders distracted by Iran, who won't really be able to settle very much at this point in time. Which of those do you believe?
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Dr. Z Yang
Well, I mean, compared to Trump's last visit to Beijing, this is already kind of a bit of a downgrade. China's welcoming a welcome ceremony and the entire plan from the Chinese side, I think it really had to deal with the Beijing's just inherent distrust of Trump. You know, they view Trump as an unpredictable figure and basically a unscrupulous Businessman who just, you know, his soul, modus operandi, self aggrandizement. Right. And Trump has a demonstrated to the Chinese he have a, he has a tendency to lash out, you know, manipulate as well as go back on his provinces. So, you know, I would say from the Chinese side, they view it as without overwhelming changes to the global order that shapes US China relations. There's not going to be any concrete lasting result from this one meeting. So, of course, we all know that all summits have to result in something. So we should expect perhaps a renewal of the trade war truce from Busan last year, maybe some deals on agriculture investment, maybe Middle east peace and setting up official mechanisms for conflict resolution in the bilateral relationship. So I guess in the end it's still a good first step for stabilizing U.S. china relations. But I would say the normalization of bilateral ties still has a long way to go.
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David Schlesinger
I think all I'd add is that China is really positioning itself as the global grownup. Don't forget that Iran's foreign minister was just in Beijing last week. Now Xi Jinping is going to China. That's very symbolic. I would not be surprised if Putin makes another visit. It relatively assumes that China is positioning itself as the place where people have to go to make an impression on the world stage. That's something new and something important.
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Chris Chermak
Beijing, the place to go over. Washington, D.C. absolutely. David Schlesinger, commentator and China analyst and Dr. Z Yang in Singapore, thank you both very much for joining us. This is the Globalist. Now, the fact that it is Wednesday and the UK still appears to have a prime minister would be a victory for Keir Starmer, the embattled leader who yesterday, yesterday had to face down a Cabinet meeting and more than 80 Labour Party lawmakers calling for his resignation, but unable to muster the official leadership challenge number to bring him down. Now, if the worst is over, and that is a big if, then how does Prime Minister Keir Starmer govern from here on out? And what can he do to turn the tide and avoid the next groundswell of resistance? Well, I'm joined now in the studio by Theo Usherwood, news editor for Press Association. Theo, great to have you here. Starmer still here. How unlikely was that?
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Theo Usherwood
He is still here, relatively speaking. He had relatively is working very hard in this. He had a good day yesterday. He survived and it wasn't looking, you know, I was, I was on the news desk yesterday and when I started my shift at lunchtime, it felt like he was in his final hours. And by the time we got to sort of early evening, it was clear that he'd done enough to survive. By the time Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy came out and effectively issued a put up or shut up warning to the Prime Minister's detractors, it was clear that he was going to, at least for the next couple of days, a few days, survive. And that's because the challengers don't appear to have, at the moment, at least the 81 MPs needed to go over the top and to challenge the Prime Minister. We know that around 80 MPs have come out and said that there needs to be a change at the very top of government. We also know there are around 100 or so. And I'm saying or so because some people whose name were added to the list saying they supported the Prime Minister, said, I never gave permission for my name to be added to the list to say that I support the Prime Minister. But that still leaves, you know, that leaves 200 odd MPs who have held their judgment and not come out publicly one, one way or the other, who are looking on now to see which way everything, you know, which way the wind is going to blow.
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Chris Chermak
And this comes in thick and fast. If I can bring in the fact there that we have the King's Speech today, which will be sort of the unveiling of new policy, or will it? This is Keir Starmer's chance, perhaps, to show that he has something else to offer.
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Theo Usherwood
You're quite right to say that. And the two are inextricably linked. I mean, it's very well saying we've got the pageantry of the King's Speech and the Government announcing its legislative. But that is inherently linked to what we saw yesterday. So, for instance, it's now understood, and I've seen it reported, that there is going to be no welfare reform. We know what happened last year, last summer, when Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, and Keir Starmer tried to introduce welfare reform, there was a huge backlash from the soft left of the Labour Party. Those are Labour MPs who are not of the likes of John McDonnell on the hard left of the party, but neither are they Blairites. They're that sort of. And that's a significant rump of where the Labour Party is at right now. And they're not prepared to stomach welfare reform. And so later this morning, when that King's Speech is announced, there will not be a key part of what many. Both on the. On the especially, you know, within the Labour Party, there are supporters of Keir Starmer who think that it needs to happen. There are also those, you know, within the Conservative Party in reform who think there needs to be welfare reform as. But that's simply not going to happen. So these two events, the King's Speech and what is happening at the moment at the very top of the Labour Party, inextricably linked. And Keir Sammer is going to be meeting with Wes Streeting, his Health Secretary, one of his main detractors, this morning in Downing Street. But it's still unclear Wes Streeting's path to take down the Prime Minister and become Prime Minister himself.
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Chris Chermak
Wes Streeting being the key person focused on as a possible successor.
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Theo Usherwood
Yeah, absolutely. We saw reports yesterday which were denied by those close to Ed Miliband, as I'm sure he has every right to do as mischief making. But if West Treating was to go over the top and say, okay, I'm going to challenge the Prime Minister, he doesn't really have the supporters. Then you have Angela Rayner, the former Deputy Prime Minister, who for many would be too high risk, and then Andy Burnham, of course, doesn't have a seat. And so when you hear people, when you hear Labour MPs saying we want to have a conversation or we want to have a debate or we want this to be a drawn out process and for the Prime Minister to set out a timetable, what they're really saying is, or many of them are really saying is let's take a step back and provide the time for Andy Burnham to get a seat to fight a by election to come back into Parliament. And then Andy Burnham would be the alternative candidate. But if it isn't going to be Andy Burnham, there has been talk about Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, saying, ok, I will be the candidate for the soft left, the one who can unite the bring together both supporters of Wes Streeting on the right of the Labour Party and supporters of Angela Rayner on the left of the Labour Party. So these are games, these are sort of Game of Thrones being played out in real time.
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Chris Chermak
These are all games that are happening. But again, Starmer is currently still in office. So let's talk about, though, what he needs to do and especially let's talk about how Europe will be looking at this, if you could give a word on that. Because Storm, of course wants to get closer to Europe, but will they be playing ball with a Prime Minister who looks like he might be on his last legs?
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Theo Usherwood
Well, I think what's really interesting about Europe and there's going to be legislation within this to deepen and strengthen within the King's speech, to deepen and strengthen Britain's ties with the European Union. I think the hope from number 10, and I know people who are around, particularly in this area of policy, I think the Hope from number 10 is that Europe is willing to do something, do a deal or strengthen those ties in both the interests of Europe and in the interests of Britain. What this goes back to politically for the Prime Minister, and I think this is something that if you're in Europe and you're hearing this, it would be worth bearing in mind is that we need in this country to secure economic growth that drives prosperity and that has been sluggish, if not flatlining, since Keir Starmer became Prime Minister and Rachel Reeves became Chancellor. Europe and closer ties with Europe in terms of, of freer trade, faster movements of goods and services, free movement of people, albeit not completely integrated, that offers an opportunity for better or stronger economic growth, which makes people feel better off. And this is what his Labour MPs are arguing. So when they go back to the ballot box, whether it be the local elections next year or the local elections or the general election in three years time, people say, hang on a moment, I voted for Labour. My life has got better off, therefore I'm going to vote for Labour again. So the Europe conundrum is key to that because many within the party, indeed many in public policy in the UK see a strong relationship with Europe as driving economic growth. I think the hope is from Danny Street's view and I think from the Labour Party's view generally is that Europe feels the same way.
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Chris Chermak
Economic challenges for the uk, Germany and France for that matter, maybe they can work something out. Theo Usherwood, thank you very much for joining us today. Still to come in the program.
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Gabriel Lee
Welcome to the program.
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Andrew Muller
I'm Andrew Muller and I'll be presenting the first installment of Monocle Radio's World cup preview series this week. We consider the tournaments for debutantes.
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Chris Chermak
Thank you very much, Andrew. That's up ahead. This is the globalist
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Chris Chermak
It is 8:21 in Zurich, 7:21 here in London. Time now to continue with today's newspapers. And joining me from our studio in Zurich is Juliet Lindley, journalist, broadcaster, former Vatican correspondent Gruzzi. Juliet Goeta.
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Juliet Lindley
Morge. Chris, how are you?
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Chris Chermak
Oh, that was a very Swiss way. I have to struggle with that one. Guten Morgen in German.
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Juliet Lindley
Morgan in Grizz is also.
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Chris Chermak
Tell us what you've brought us in the papers. We are going to start with, well, the ceasefire that was very brief between Russia and Ukraine.
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Juliet Lindley
Yeah. Let's start with the Guardian, Chris. And it's reporting a fresh round of attacks on Ukraine as the three day ceasefire announced by Trump last week has exactly come to a screeching halt. Moscow launched over 200 drone attacks, killing at least one civilian and hitting apartment buildings and energy facilities. The Guardian quotes President Zelensky who's posting, saying that his military will respond in kind, while again repeating that Russia must end this war and it's Russia that must take the step towards a real and lasting ceasefire. Now, Chris, to put this all into context, this is happening as talks in Brussels are taking place. They started yesterday, they're moving on into today. And first we had the foreign ministers of all 27 EU countries and now the defence ministers are beginning to sit down and talk. And their points of discussion, Chris, they include the impact of the Middle east conflict on European security and of course, reinforcing joint defence capabilities. But key on the agenda is sustaining military assistance to Ukraine and that would include battlefield requirements, air defence, ammunition, drones, of course, and support for domestic defence production. So, Chris, these are important meetings taking place. And the end of the ceasefire is yet another hit on Ukraine. The foreign ministers already agreed, if you wish, a $90 billion, 90 billion euro loan to support Ukraine and they've agreed to the 20th round of sanctions against Russia. Now, one of the questions is whether to talk directly with Moscow and on that. The EU is still very much split, as you know. France's Macron is a very strong advocate of it. So is France, possibly even Spain. But Sweden and Poland are definitely skeptical and they want more pressure on Russia.
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Chris Chermak
We will see how that continues. The on again, off again ceasefire effort to end the war. But Julia, to bring you to one of your former roles, the Vatican has released its annual reports. I always find this in itself a bit of a bizarre one. Like one doesn't really realize that the Vatican always has a bank and it's showing over 50 million euros in profits.
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Juliet Lindley
It does. Well, the Vatican has a bank, it has its own police force, it has its own Swiss Guards, it's got a supermarket in it, it's got firefighters It's a real country, I mean city, state, but anyway, yes, interest. So the ior, because that's the official name of the Vatican bank, it would be the Institute of the Opera Religions, the Institute for Religious Works. It closed its financial year with 51 million euros in net profit. That's up more than 50% year on year. And Pope Leo even gets a dividend. I mean, not personally, but 24 million euros. So this is looking good for the bank that was known as God's bank and has been under a lot of fire over the last decades for not always, always having the cleanest of operations. But Pope Francis certainly has been, did a lot to overhaul it ever since 2014 when he came into office, he ordered a series of reforms. And you've got to say, you know Pope Leo, who just took over the Popes a year ago, he's already putting in a lot of rules. And remember, Pope Leo first studied maths. He graduated in maths from Villanova before going on to study Canon Law and theology. So he's a bit of a number cruncher. And he ruled that the Vatican bank would no longer have exclusive rights to investments. And this followed up on Francis's efforts to clean up things after. You'll remember this, Chris, this failed real estate investment in London that was a property near Harrods and it resulted in a 100 million pound loss for the Vatican. A major trial ensued and led to convictions for financial crimes. But interestingly, Chris, aside from the annual report, this, this comes shortly after the Vatican bank had released two equity indices that each hold 50 companies which it considers to be consistent with Catholic teaching. So Catholic social doctrine. So if you would want to invest in them, they've done the due diligence to tell you whether as a true Catholic, you should or shouldn't. And they looked at like pro life matters, stem cell issues, abortion, controversial weapons, oil, you know, environmental issues as well as money laundering and terrorism. And you'll be interested to know that in the index, companies like Matter, Amazon, Tesla and Apple are in there. And in the European one, Deutsche bank and even Hermes for the fashionistas amongst us. So I'm not sure I'd agree necessarily with all of these companies, but certainly it shows that it's another sign that the Vatican bank is really adopting best practices in international finance. As we said, its past record hadn't always been the best. And for those who want to also be going along with Catholic social doctrine, here you have some rules and regulations.
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Chris Chermak
And just quickly to follow up on that, Juliet, I do Understand you mentioned failed investments in London, but they are investing in TikTok. And that's helping?
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Juliet Lindley
Oh, definitely. Why not? Right. We can discuss that on another show.
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Chris Chermak
Well, let's also move on to one other thing that you brought for us related to the Iran war. It's forcing a Japanese snack company to move to, of all things, color free packages.
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Juliet Lindley
Yeah, monochrome packets are being forced on potato chip fans in Japan because of the Iran war, as you said. Now who would have guessed that this could have been one of the repercussions of Trump's war on Tehran? So the company is Cal B, it's Japan's largest salty snack manufacturer and it says that as of May 25, it's going to switch to black and white packets for 14 of its products. And that's because of a shortage of the petroleum based inks that are used for printing snack packs. Now, one of the byproducts of the oil refining process is naphtha. I didn't know this, Chris. Maybe you did. Which is used to create colored inks and plastics. And Japan relies on Middle east, on the Middle east for about 60% of its naphtha. Now, some critics are saying, is this just a marketing ploy? Because certainly Kalbi is getting a lot of traction in the press today. I'm seeing it all over the news, this story. And it's, is it not so much about a dearth of coloured ink but actually is it about pr? Especially because Prime Minister Sanay Takaichi has said that Japan has actually enough naphtha based chemicals to last until 2027 because they've already found alternative suppliers. So your guess is as good as mine, Chris. But you know that Calbee also owns Harvest Snaps and Seabrook Crisp spreads in the uk Maybe you're familiar with them.
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Chris Chermak
Are they going to go to color free packaging there too?
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Juliet Lindley
We gotta wait and see. Maybe you can call me next time you go shopping and let me know.
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Chris Chermak
Just look out for the black and white packaging in the supermarket. Juliet Lindley in our Zurich studio. Thank you very much for joining us. You're with the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. US President Donald Trump says he's not at all motivated by American economic concerns in his negotiations with Iran and that he does not need China's help. Telling reporters ahead of his trip to Beijing that he remains focused on Iran not acquiring a nuclear weapon. Iran, meanwhile, has reportedly reached deals with Iraq and Pakistan to allow the shipping of oil and liquid natural gas out of the Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz as it continues to assert control over the Strait. Some 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Bahamas Prime Minister Philip Davis and his Progressive Liberal Party appear to have won re election. In an early poll called for yesterday, Davis would become the first prime minister in the Bahamas in nearly three decades to get a second consecutive term in office. And last night saw the first semi final of the Eurovision Song Contest in Vienna with favorites Finland and also Israel among those making it through to the final to be held on Saturday. Five countries have boycotted the event over Israel's participation. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. To Bosnia now, where one of the last major legacies of the war in Yugoslavia may be coming to an end. Christian Schmidt, the international high representative and guardian of the Dayton peace accords that ended the war, has resigned. Now, of course, this doesn't mean that conflict is about to break out in the Balkans three decades later, but it does symbolize a major shift in the power balance in the region. And to tell us why all of this matters, I'm joined now from Ljubljana by Monocle's Balkans correspondent, Guy Delaunay. Guy, good to have you.
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Guy Delaunay
Good morning, Chris, and good morning, all.
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Chris Chermak
So tell us about the role that Christian Schmidt had, its history since the Dayton Accords. Take us back, first of all.
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Guy Delaunay
Well, we're looking at the high representative. I always call it the international high representative, but the official title is simply high representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This is the most powerful figure in the entire country because the high representative doesn't just represent the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but they also have the power ultimately to dismiss any elected official in Bosnia and Herzegovina, to impose laws, to annul laws. They're incredibly powerful. And Mr. Schmidt, who's just resigned or just announced his resignation at any rate, has used those powers in the past few years in a way that we haven't seen for quite a long time. People might remember the days of Paddy Ashdown as the high representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina when he became known as the Viceroy of Bosnia, which was not really a particularly flattering nickname name. But this was because of his propensity for really putting his foot down, imposing his way on affairs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and in one instance, sacking 60 officials in a single day. This was the kind of thing that the high representative could do and can still do. So they're an extraordinarily powerful figure, but they're still there because basically Bosnia, it's difficult to see a way that it would function without the high representative being there, because all the hopes that everybody had that the country would somehow move beyond the ethnic divisions which caused the conflicts in the 1990s in the first place. All those optimistic sort of scenarios just haven't come to pass. And the fact that Mr. Schmidt has been intervening repeatedly during his five years in the office indicates we've still got a problem there.
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Chris Chermak
Well, nonetheless, Guy, to play sort of devil's advocate, I guess, here a little bit, but it is a sovereign country, and so it is quite striking the way you describe that. I think, for people listening might not have realized what Bosnia is under here. I mean, is there an argument, however badly Bosnia is functioning, that the training wheels should have been taken off a long time ago?
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Guy Delaunay
Yeah, there is indeed. And they tried that, to be honest with you. After Paddy Ashdown departed as High Representative In 2006, you then had a very long period of 15 years where high representatives did not use what are known as their bomb powers. In other words, all these draconian powers. They've got to sack officials and impose legislation and so forth. They didn't do it. They said, right, we're leaving it to the Bosnian politicians, the ethnopolitical leaders, to sort it out for themselves. The high representative wasn't meant to be a permanent thing. It was meant to be there to ensure the Dayton Peace Agreement was followed, the conflict didn't break out again, and that the country could move forward. Well, in those 15 years that the high representative did pretty much nothing. There's an utter failure of the political leaders of Bosnia and Herzegovina to seize the day. They just didn't do it. And we saw the same old, same old of political and in particular, ethnopolitical divisions. Nothing was getting done. The country was stagnating in every sense. You want to see, at one point, 2014, the there were massive riots and demonstrations in multiple parts of the country because people just said, listen, our politicians are letting us down. That was the driver for those riots and protests. So they tried it that way. Mr. Schmidt came back in and decided he was going to put his foot down. And he obviously wasn't doing that. He wasn't freelancing with that. He was clearly under the direction of the people who sponsor his position in the first place, particularly the European Union.
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Chris Chermak
So the fact that he is now departing, Tell us about that. Why is he departing now and what does that mean for the country, given what you've just described?
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Guy Delaunay
Well, it's an interesting moment because as you said in your introduction, if he goes, it could be a real change. And the question is whether the position of the high representative carries on and if so, will it carry on in the same way. Now, there's no guarantees either way at the moment. And when you saw what was happening in the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday, there's clearly a very large split in the powers who've traditionally supported the high representative's role. So the European Union obviously wants the high representative to continue, isn't proposing any particular changes in what the high representative does. Very much sees the high representative as getting Bosnia and Herzegovina on the path towards European Union membership, leadership and some formal negotiations. Accession negotiations haven't got underway yet, but Bosnia is now officially a candidate. It's receiving forms of pre accession funding. It's meant to be making reforms that put it in a position to start the full accession process. So the European Union sees the high representative as ensuring that's going to happen right on the opposite end of the scale, you've got Russia who's saying that, that the high representative, the office of the high representative should be scrapped immediately. The Bosnian Herzegovina, coming back to what you were saying, Chris, should have genuine sovereignty and independence, not the Western countries intervention time after time after time. But the intriguing thing is what's happening in the middle, and this is with the United States. Now there's been a very, very heavy suggestion that Mr. Schmidt resigned because he'd fallen out with the US and specifically he'd fallen out with the US over a pipeline project. A tender was put out. That tender was awarded to a previously not known at all company which funnily enough just happened to have connections to the Trump family. Mr. Schmidt and the European Union were not happy about that. The United States became unhappy with Mr. Schmidt. Mr. Schmidt has now gone. He hasn't blamed the US for that. He says it was a personal decision. But a personal decision can have many reasons. And if you looked in the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday, the US Representative there was saying that Bosnia was moving towards a new phase, that the high representative's office shouldn't be permanent and Schmidt's replacement should have a limited role and be impartial and trusted by all communities. And rather hilariously, the US Republican representative also said that the authorities of the majority Serb Repubbika Srpska entity had given up on threats of secession. And this is funny, Chris, because right next to this write up from the Security Council, I've got a headline with Miller Aldic, the now disbarred president of the Republika Szarpska entity saying if Schmidt imposes the state property law, we'll immediately declare independence. So much for a barren abandoning threats of secession.
- [38:38]
Chris Chermak
Guy Delany will have to bring you on again, whether when or if there is a new high representative or there's secession talk Monaco's Balkans correspondent in Ljubljana, Guy Delani. Thank you very much for joining us. You're with Monaco Radio. Now, as we count down to kickoff for the World cup next month. Every Wednesday on the Globalist Monocles, Andrew Muller will be reporting on everything from the grudge matches to watch out for to the things most likely to trip up the smooth administration of the tournament. Good luck with that. To begin the series, he introduces you to the nations making their first appearance at the jamboree.
- [39:27]
Andrew Muller
There are at present 211 national football associations recognized by FIFA FIFA. Fully 132 of those have never qualified for a men's World cup, and a good few of those seem unlikely to. However generously FIFA expands the tournament
- [39:48]
Dr. Z Yang
at
- [39:48]
Andrew Muller
the bottom of the rankings languish such famously hapless outfits as San Marino, Anguilla, the US and British Virgin Islands and Liechtenstein, any the of of whom Monocle would stand half a chance against. Indeed, if any of their respective associations fancy a kick about, the phone number is on the website. Nevertheless, FIFA's enlargement of the 2026 World cup to 48 teams has permitted the participation of four debutantes whose chances we now propose to assess in descending order of their current place in the first FIFA rankings. Uzbekistan, Currently ranked 50th and not without a chance of squeaking through Group K, which also includes Portugal, Colombia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The White Wolves, as they are known, have been unlucky before now. They might have qualified as long ago as 2000, 2006 were it not for FIFA's baffling decision to order a replay of a match against Bahrain due to a single refereeing error. Uzbekistan's 2026 squad boasts at least one genuinely world class player in Manchester City defender Abdoukadir Kusunov, and a coach who knows what it takes to win World Cups. Fabio Cannavaro did exactly that with Italy in 2006. Viewers tuning in, expecting devil may care offensive swashbuckle, may be disappointed. Cannavaro, a famously dour centre back, has fashioned a team in his own forbidding image, positively boasting that playing against them is, quote, a pain in the ass.
- [41:33]
Juliet Lindley
Yikes.
- [41:45]
Andrew Muller
13 rungs further down the FIFA rankings, we find. Jordan.
- [41:54]
Guy Delaunay
It ends 30 to Jordan. All one. The hat trick hero. All eyes will now be on the match between Korea Republic and Iraq. If Iraq lose, Jordan will qualify for the FIFA World Cup.
- [42:06]
Andrew Muller
And so it came to pass, the three goals by Jordan star forward Ali Olwan against Oman proving sufficient to send Jordan's national national team splendidly nicknamed the Chivalrous Ones, to their first World Cup. Sadly, Olwan, Jordan's second greatest ever goal scorer, is a doubtful starter due to an ankle injury in his absence. The player to watch is Jordan's captain Moussa Altamari, a flashy winger currently playing in France's Ligue 1 for Rennes.
- [42:37]
Guy Delaunay
He's been a thorn in the side of this Korea Republic defense throughout this game.
- [42:41]
Theo Usherwood
He's still going here Altamiri. What a sol goal from Jordan's number 10. And that might just be the goal that sends them through to the final
- [42:53]
Andrew Muller
69th on the FIFA rankings. Meanwhile, we find. Cape Verde. The West African archipelago, population just 600,000 or so, is the second smallest country by population ever to rule reach the World Cup. The Blue Sharks, as they are known, have had to be resourceful. Many of their players don't live in Cape Verde. A few never have. Center back Roberto Lopez, born in Dublin where he plays for Shamrock Rovers, was recruited via LinkedIn after Cape Verdean football authorities read that his father had been born in Cape Verde. They are not mugs, however. They finished top of their African qualifying group, losing only one game along the way. The smallest country by population or area ever to reach a World cup is. Curacao. Indeed, the newcomer to the very concept of Curacao, part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, may have assumed they'd struggle to assemble a starting 11 without resorting to potted ferns and the Governor's dog. Nevertheless, the Blue Wave, as Curacao's side are known, sauntered unbeaten through the CONCACAF qualifying process, heavily reliant on the goals of Curacao's all time leading goalscorer Rangelo Yanga and striker Jovan Castanear Stelvo Bolachen. Both men, like most of their teammates, were born in the Netherlands. The other thing Curacao's football team have in common with their more storied kinfolk is an astonishing capacity for self inflicted drama. Their pre tournament preparations have been roiled by a fracar over who should coach them. This summer Curacao were led most of the way through qualification by legendary and much travelled Dutch coach Dick Advocate before he stood down due to a family illness in February and was replaced By Fred Rutten Players wanted advocate back Rutten quit and as of this broadcast, who knows Whoever is in charge Curacao are that team at this World cup for whom victory is keeping the goals against Colm to single figures. For Monocle Radio, I'm Andrew Muller.
- [45:41]
Chris Chermak
Thank you, Andrew. The next edition of our World cup series next Wednesday on the Globalist on Monocle Radio.
- [45:50]
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- [46:24]
Chris Chermak
This is the Globalist. And it's time now for a roundup of transport news. I'm joined from Stockholm by Monocle's transport correspondent, Gabriel Lee. Gabe, good to have you.
- [46:34]
Gabriel Lee
Thank you. Good to be here.
- [46:36]
Chris Chermak
So we're going to start with some positive news, I suppose, geopolitical positive news out of the airline industry. There are new flights resuming between the United States and Venezuela, right?
- [46:48]
Gabriel Lee
Yeah. And this was something that didn't happen for several years. There was a removal of traffic rights basically. So even if airlines wanted to do it, of course with icy relations, it wasn't going to help. With everything that has happened between the US And Venezuela in, in the last few months now we're seeing the airlines start to return and not only the US Airlines. So we had American Airlines begin just a few weeks ago flights, the first ones and now we see the United is planning to do their own out of here, Houston, starting this summer. We've also seen, interestingly, Qatar Airways announced that they will start serving Caracas in addition to Bogota, kind of triangle flight out of Doha will be one of their longest flights as well. So interesting new service being added there.
- [47:27]
Chris Chermak
It is interesting new service. Just tell us more about kind of how little, I guess was going to Caracas before this. How big a change will this be for Venezuela?
- [47:35]
Gabriel Lee
Yeah, I mean for a time there, the number of carriers flying in there really, really dwindled down to very few. And one of the few actually good options from, from Europe, Middle east has been Turkish Airlines. They've been pretty consistent there and I think they do pretty well with this route. But there was certainly nothing from, nothing from the US at all for at least since about 2019. And you had sort of Venezuelan carriers also wishing they could fly to the US it's the main market for them but, but not being able to and, and Quite, quite a sort of classic fleet of Venezuelan aircraft being the majority of what you would see in the skies of Venezuela. So this is great for people in Caracas who wanted to get out and especially to reach the U.S. this is much more convenient.
- [48:19]
Chris Chermak
Well, let's move to news out of here in Europe. Air France KLM Group might not be Air France KLM Group for long. They're looking to change their name as they add, well, lots of different regions to their roster.
- [48:32]
Gabriel Lee
Yeah, this is an interesting one because it's sort of in this process of airline groups consolidating, taking over airlines within Europe. We're seeing that as, as a trend. Obviously. We have Lufthansa Group, which now, which now recently also incorporated ITA from, from Italy. They have several airlines under the group. And then you have iag, which is British Airways, Iberia, also Whaling, Aer Lingus and Air France. KLM obviously was, was the result of a merger between Air France and klm. But then now that they're looking to add more airlines, for example, taking a majority stake in sas, which should go through this year, and they're also making a bid for Portuguese carrier tap. They're saying, well, we can't just be Air France KLM Group anymore. We need a new name. And it's an interesting one. There's a lot of controversy over this as well, actually, within the group and outside.
- [49:19]
Chris Chermak
Controversy. Just tell us more about why there's controversy. Is that because sort of Air France and klm, just that Dutch, French tradition, they want to keep that going.
- [49:28]
Gabriel Lee
Yeah. And there's also, I think, some resistance from the KLM side that Air France is the, the dominant one in this relationship. But KLM has sought to retain a certain amount of autonomy and operate as this kind of two airlines within a group with separate identities and separate finances and all that. And they worry that if this moves into more of a newly named, more consolidated group, that Air France will consolidate power and they will lose autonomy. So I think most of the controversy is from the KLM management side.
- [49:57]
Chris Chermak
Now, finally, Gabe, we do have some interesting data coming out about airfares in the wake of the Iran conflicts. Tell us, for those summer travelers hoping to book, are prices going up or down?
- [50:10]
Gabriel Lee
Yeah, well, it's sort of a mixed picture at the moment, I would say. In general, prices are going up, although maybe they haven't gone up as much as some had feared. However, we do have actual data from the US Government out for the first time. It's the first thing I've seen that has really looked at an overall picture, at least within the US the airfares are up 20% year on year. And that's certainly the result of higher fuel prices. And also important to remember that airlines in the US Especially have been doing things to, for example, adding, raising fees on ancillary fees. So for example, bag fees have all gone up. So they're making more money in other ways too. But at the same time, you have recently the Wiz Air CEO was quoted as saying that in Europe, actually there's a fear around people being hesitant to actually buy flights because they're worried about the economic impact of Iran. And so airlines are having to slash fares to attract those people for summer travel. So there is a kind of mixed picture, but overall, I would say in general, especially long haul fares have gone up.
- [51:09]
Chris Chermak
So is that just to clarify, Gabe, do you see a little bit of a difference there between kind of low cost airlines and traditional airlines in terms of where it's going?
- [51:17]
Gabriel Lee
It's kind of difficult to break it down. But I would say yes, maybe you could say, say that low cost airlines, especially in Europe, would feel pressure to sort of keep, keep demand up. Basically where those people who might have bought that cheap summer flight now, now are afraid to because maybe they don't have enough money left over for that. So, so they would be more under pressure to sort of slash those fares. Whereas you see the kind of full service carriers, especially in the US that, that data is pretty clear. The full service airlines are saying, well, hey, look, we can, we can raise fares quite a bit and people are still, still buying. So for the moment, that's how it's looking.
- [51:51]
Chris Chermak
Gabriel Lee in Stockholm, our transport correspondent, thank you very much for joining us. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. And finally on today's show, the Cannes Film Festival gets underway this week. And here to tell, tell us all about it. I'm joined now from Cannes by the entertainment journalist and commentator on programs including ITV's Good Morning Britain, Stephanie Tetchy. Good to have you, Stephanie. Tell us first of all about the opening night last night. They couldn't really escape the politics of the moment, could they?
- [52:31]
Stephanie Tetchy
Oh my gosh. You know, Chris, every time I come to Cannes, I know that politics is going to be involved. And it seems like each year it's more and more intertwined with this festival. We saw from the opening press conference where we had juries including Demi Moore, Park Won Chong, who is the president, and Stellan Skarsgard. Politics is what everyone wanted to know and the General consensus at the moment from most of the jury and people who are attending is that politics should be intertwined with film. And it's one of those things. It's about freedom of speech. And I think a lot of actors are definitely using their voices and their platforms. Whether Cannes the place to do it's still questionable, but it's something that always pops up every year.
- [53:18]
Chris Chermak
And just to add to that, Stephanie, is this just about speaking out about politics or was there also sort of discussion about what sort of films to make?
- [53:29]
Stephanie Tetchy
I think it's about speaking about politics. I think as well, a lot of actors do feel. I think it's more about their personal life. Like, one of the jurors yesterday was talking about all of the kind of actors who've been blacklisted, including like Javier Bardem, whose always spoken about Gaza non stop and seen a long line of actors where their list of work has been dwindling because they've just been vocal about politics. In terms of the films that I've been seeing so far, there's nothing that really strikes me with a tough political edge.
- [54:06]
Chris Chermak
Well beyond that, though, aside from the politics, there's also, well, I guess a different version of politics that I wanted to ask you about, Stephanie, because there are no Hollywood premieres this year, can you explain why Hollywood. Hollywood is not at Cannes?
- [54:20]
Stephanie Tetchy
You know what? It's a very sad state of affairs. I've been coming to Cannes for six years, and this year I can definitely confirm that the Hollywood glamour is not there. There are many reasons for it. And so far in the industry, in Hollywood, they're really at this apex at the moment where studios are really trying to protect their films. And I think what's happened is there's been this kind of consensus where these big studios are thinking actually they don't need Cannes as much anymore. If you think about it, Cannes is now in its year. The industry has changed so much and their outlook has changed. So I think a lot of these studios have decided to skip cancer this year. But it's been a blessing for more independent films. We have two American films which are still going to be showcased. It's the Man I Love, which will be a drama about the HIV crisis, starring Remy Malek. And then also we got James Gray's Paper Tiger, which will be getting its debut on Saturday. But these are all independent films. They're not big studio budget films, which we usually see having their premieres in Cannes.
- [55:26]
Chris Chermak
Well, Stephanie, just tell us more about that. I mean, is that the idea is the point There that independent films, international films, they probably need the exposure of something like Cannes to get people on board. Hollywood is what, just hoping that they have a blockbuster that brings people without any reviews at all.
- [55:44]
Stephanie Tetchy
Well, that's a really key point there because I think, you know, how what for films doing Cannes, they can either make or break. So if you're getting bad reviews from Cannes as a big Hollywood blockbuster, it's probably going to fall flat when it actually does get its release in the cinemas, where the independents who are going straight to Amazon, straight to Netflix, they are eventually going to get people's attention. But in terms of cinemas, it's very important about your messaging. If we see films like the Devil Wears Prada too, that didn't need to come to Cannes, we also have Christopher Nolan's new film 2000, which is coming out this summer. Again, it could have had a big marketing moment here in Canberra. What's actually shifted now is more films are now using influences to promote films. They're using social media. So what one finding in Cannes here, they're having to up their game. They've partnered with Meta, which I think is trying to move Cannes into this modern era of filmmaking and how things should be promoted.
- [56:46]
Chris Chermak
Now, just one bit of star power that there was last night. Tell us about New Zealand's Peter Jackson, because he was given an honorary award.
- [56:54]
Stephanie Tetchy
Yeah, it was all eyes on Peter last night and he was presented the Palm d' or by Elijah Wood, of course, who he worked with, and the Lord of the Rings. But even though it was about star power, he seemed a bit baffled on stage. He was like, I'm not the kind of guy that gets a Palme d'. Or, but, you know, can definitely thought he deserved it. And he's had about a 38 year relationship with Cannes. That was the last time. He's only been there twice, but I think for his breadth of work, he had to get that honor last night. And he said in his speech yesterday how honored he felt and how he felt that this is like a new pivotal moment for filmmaking. But still, he did have a bit of a deer in headlights look about him.
- [57:40]
Chris Chermak
Well, Stephanie, just finally, we've got about a minute to go, but tell us about the actual Palme d'. Or. What are you expecting who might win? How will South Korea's Park Han wut leading the jury influence that?
- [57:52]
Stephanie Tetchy
Well, I think that the Spanish films this year are going to do really, really well. Because I think where we're lacking in American films, the Spanish films, including one by Pedro Almodova Auto Fiction will do really well. We've got three Spanish films. We even have an entry from Costa Rica for Ton Animal Maternal, which I think would do well. And then we also have presents from the Middle east with films from Yemen called the Station and Kosovo from Dua. So think it will be quite interesting who really gets this award at the end of the two weeks here.
- [58:27]
Chris Chermak
Stephanie Tucci, entertainment journalist and commentator in Khan. Thank you very much for joining us. That's all the time we have for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Angelica Jobson, Laura Kramer, Desiree Bandley in Zurich, Ryuma Takahashi in Tokyo, our researcher Josevina Astra Nagler Gomez and our studio manager, Steph Chungu. After the headlines, there is more music on the the Way the Breathing is live at midday in London. Andrew Muller will be your host for that and the Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'll be your host for that. I'm Chris Chermack. Thanks for listening.
- [59:33]
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