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UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Georgina Godwin
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 7th April 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
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Chandra Kurt
Hello,
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Georgina Godwin
this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, we'll join our Gulf correspondent, Inzaman Rashid.
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Inzaman Rashid
Well, Georgina, the countdown is on to President Trump's ultimatum in Iran. Open up the Strait of Hormuz or prepare to live in hell. I'll have more on a critical 24 hours ahead.
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Georgina Godwin
TRUMP threatens to destroy Iran in one night unless the Strait of Hormuz is open today. INSI will bring us up to speed. Then to China. The Taiwanese opposition leader will be visiting Beijing in advance of the summit between the leaders of the USA and China. Is that timing significant? We'll rustle through the papers and then we'll hear how Finland is reacting to Russian drones over the Baltic Sea.
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Rodolfo Molesi
Plus, the changes in the last 20 years were very positive because people before was just looking at Latin America through the television. But now people is traveling.
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Georgina Godwin
We'll gain more understanding of Latin America's branding exercise. We'll have a roundup of aviation stories. And finally, a deep draft of Swiss wine with news about incoming regulations on imports and what you should be drinking this spring. That's all ahead here on the Globalist, live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Airlines across Asia and beyond are cutting flights, rationing fuel and raising fares as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts jet fuel supplies and drives a sharp rise in costs. An Israeli airstrike near a school sheltering displaced Palestinians in Gaza has killed at least 10 people as clashes and ceasefire violations intensify. And the WHO suspends medical evacuations. And NASA's Artemis 2 astronauts have traveled further from Earth than any humans in history during a crude flyby of the moon's far side, marking a major milestone in the US Lunar program. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, Donald Trump has given Iran until this evening to agree to ceasefire terms or he says he will send it back to the Stone Age, saying complete destruction of the country could happen tonight unless the vital waterway, the Strait of Hormuz, is opened. Iran says it's formulated its response to ceasefire proposals but will not enter direct talks while the US And Israeli strikes continue. Well, attacks across the country have reportedly killed at least 34 people. And the United nations nuclear watchdog says there have been strikes near Iran's only nuclear power station. As Washington increases pressure and China positions itself as a diplomatic player, does an off ramp still exist? Well, I'm joined now from Dubai by Monocle's Gulf correspondent, Insamum Rashid, and by Scott Lucas, who's an adjunct professor at the Clinton Institute at the University College Dublin. Welcome to you both. Scott, if we could start with you, could you just tell us about that extraordinary press conference from Donald Trump yesterday? What exactly is he threatening?
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Scott Lucas
Well, he's threatening war crimes and indeed, not just an extraordinary press conference. This is several days of extraordinary Trump behavior, even by his standards, including that foul mouth, blasphemous tweet over the weekend that you quoted part of sending Iran back to the Stone Age. But I think the question beyond his behavior, because he is angry, he is frustrated about the Iranian regime's refusal to surrender, is what exactly are the Americans going to do next? We have been here before, and that is Trump, remember, threatened the obliteration of Iran weeks ago, then he extended it by five days, then he extended it by 10 days. And then only a few days ago, he actually conceded control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, saying it's up to other countries to go and grab and capture it. What you have fundamentally, I think is still a Trump administration that is undecided where it goes next. Plan A failed. It did not get regime surrender by killing the supreme leader and other officials. So it may expand these attacks on civilian infrastructure. But it is still caught between one of two paths. Does it seek that off ramp talks with Iran or does it cross the Rubicon and bring in ground troops? Because the one thing I can probably tell you amidst all the uncertainty is that Iran's regime will not surrender and that it will not be toppled unless you have ground operations as well as
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Georgina Godwin
these airstrikes and insi. If we could come to you in Dubai, what more can you tell us about Iran's response to all this?
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Inzaman Rashid
So, look, the ceasefire deal was put on the table initially by Pakistan. I've been speaking to sources inside Pakistan who said that the army chief there was working right throughout the night. A couple of nights ago, speaking with U.S. vice President J.D. vance, Steve Witkoff and the Iranian Foreign Ministry. And they basically put together this two tier plan. Initially it would be an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. And then later down the line, within 15 or 20 days or so there'd be a broader agreement which would look at having direct talks between Iran and the US held in Pakistan. And essentially this is a framework that the Pakistanis was working alongside Egypt and Turkey had put to Iran and the US And I think majority of it had really come from the US in terms of what they wanted. Iran then looked at it and pretty much rejected this current backed, US backed ceasefire framework and particularly any temporary truce. They said that they want some form of longer term political settlement which includes lifting sanctions, reconstruction guarantees and a broader end to hostilities across the region. So they're not on the same page. And all the while the fighting very much continues. Georgina? We've seen an increase of fighting, in fact, particularly from Israel and US forces inside of Iran. And then the retaliation from Iran, particularly towards the Gulf states has been pretty immense over the last 24 to 48 hours as well. Specifically in response to this, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Ismail Bagay, he said that that a ceasefire means creating a pause to strengthen forces for committing crimes. Again, no rational person would do this. Our demands, in addition to preventing a cycle of ceasefire and war, must be observed. So flat out rejection from Iran and I just don't understand and I can't see how any of the fighting or any agreement around a ceasefire will happen in the next few hours or so, because the fighting, as I said, very much continues.
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Georgina Godwin
Scott, have we any idea how stable the leadership in Iran is? I mean, we haven't heard from Khamenei junior At all. I mean, we've seen written statements. We haven't seen him though. So is he okay and is he in charge?
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Scott Lucas
Well, the Israelis this morning are circulating the claim that he is in, quote, severe condition in the Iranian holy city of home and unable to function. That may or may not be true. I mean, you take Israeli claims at face value, what I would say is, is that even if the Supreme Leader is unable to function, no, the Iranian regime is still there. Of course he is a symbolic leader and in normal times would be the overall leader of Iran. But you still have clerical leaders of Iran, you still have political leaders of Iran, you still have Iran's military, the Revolutionary Guards, the besieged paramilitaries. So the idea that Iran's regime is incapacitated as opposed to the Supreme Leader. Now, that's if anybody that believes that they're just deluding themselves.
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Georgina Godwin
And Indzi, I wonder if you could tell us how serious you think the strike near the nuclear power station in Iran is. And also the fact we've now heard about an Israeli strike on a petrochemical plant. Are either of those endgame style?
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Inzaman Rashid
Well, look, I think what's important to know is that whilst you've got Donald Trump saying, you know, giving the ultimatum, Israel has still carried out strikes on energy facilities, despite the fact President Trump is saying, you know, 48 hours or three days or whatever, whatever it was, but Israel has still carried out those strikes. And the particular strike on Iran's South Pause gas complex is incredibly important because at the end of the day, this is. It's the world's largest gas field. Well, it includes the world's largest gas field. It's previously been hit by US Israeli strikes. I mean, well, Israel said that they carried out that alone without the U.S. but this would have detrimental impact to the people of Iran, but also Iran's economy as well by targeting this particular gas site. And then, yes, you've got other power plants, you've got other energy, civilian nuclear sites as well. And the President is saying that, well, he will obliterate them, he will bomb them all and he says that he can do it within four hours of starting that bombing. But also importantly, key bridges as well. And, you know, crushing those bridges for the Iranian people would cut off so many supplies for people to get things in and out of the, of their towns and cities, just basic goods and needs and that would essentially push the country back incredibly. But I think what's important here as well, Georgina, is that if you've got Israel and the US that will carry out these attacks on energy facilities, on power plants, etc. Iran will respond and they will retaliate towards the Gulf states. We've already seen them do that to a number of petrochemical sites here in the uae, over in Saudi Arabia, in Kuwait and Bahrain as well, in Doha too. And there is no doubt with Iran's missile capability, even though President Trump has said that it's been destroyed. They very much have it. I mean, they shot down an F15 fighter jet, so they've got military capability still in that country and they will use them if the US carries out these strikes.
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Georgina Godwin
Insy. Thank you, thank you. Also to Scotland. Before we move on, I just wanted to quickly touch on one country who seems to be emerging as the winner, if you can say that, from all of this. Let's bring in David Schlesinger, who is an independent advisor and commentator on media, journalism and China. David, China's quickly becoming the most stable, reliable and predictable of all. At least it seems so on the surface. What is Beijing's role here and what is it likely to do next? How could it influence the conflict?
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David Schlesinger
Well, Beijing, of course, wants to see stability and wants to see an end of conflict. It's very much reliant on oil and gas imports itself, but it knows that its influence is rather limited. It has great influence or has had great influence on Iran itself. It takes 80% of Iran's oil imports at the moment, but it has absolutely zero leverage with either the US Or Israel. So it has economic leverage, but it doesn't have political or military leverage, number one. Number two, very important for China to continue to have very good relations with other states within the Gulf. And so it doesn't want to get too aligned with anybody. It just wants an end to this conflict. But while it's going on, it can sit back and say, okay, my rivals in Russia are tied up in Ukraine, our rivals in the US Are tied up in Iran. We are the superpower that at the moment is not involved in a costly endless war. That's a good thing.
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Georgina Godwin
David, thank you very much. Please stick around because we're going to look at China's own potential conflict in a moment. Thanks also to Inzamin Rashid and Scott Lucas. This is the Globalist. It is 1412 in Beijing, 712 here in London. Taiwan's opposition leader Cheng Liwen is heading to China today on what she calls a peace mission. It's the first such visit by a leader of the Kuomintang, the kmt, in a decade. It comes as Beijing ramps up military pressure and outreach to Taiwan, while divisions deepen at home over defense spending and how to handle China, which views Taiwan as its own territory. With the summit between Donald Trump and Xi looming, Taiwan is increasingly becoming part of a wider negotiation between Washington and Beijing. Well, still with me is David Schlesinger, who is an independent advisor and commentator on media and journalism and China. So, David, if we start with who Chen Liwen is and what she's trying to achieve with this visit.
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David Schlesinger
Well, Cheng Liwen is the chairwoman of the Kuomintang, the kmt, the Nationalist Party, which was the party that actually fled to Taiwan after losing China's civil war. So the KMT has always had this one China dream. For many years, it was the one China dream that it would then take over the mainland. Again, that's obviously not going to happen. But the current KMT dream is to be the peace party that somehow negotiates a rapprochement between Taiwan and China that allows the current awkward status quo to continue.
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Georgina Godwin
Right. Let me bring in William Yang now, who's the senior Northeast Asia analyst for the International Crisis Group. He's actually in Taipei. William, many thanks. Joining us, how politically sensitive is this visit by Chen Liwen to Beijing? How is it being viewed in Taiwan?
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William Yang
It actually is being viewed in a quite divided manner across Taiwan. There are obviously large numbers of Taiwanese people who are skeptical about her slogan of achieving peace with the Chinese Communist Party at a time when Beijing continues to ramp up its military pressure against Taiwan. And they, in fact view this trip as potentially setting a dangerous precedence if she indeed makes remarks that will be picked up by Chinese state media and amplify as recognition or support of Beijing's position on Taiwan, which is the Taiwan has always been a part of China. But on the other hand, because of the growing skepticism and anxiety about US Commitment to support Taiwan within Taiwan, in fact, there are also Taiwanese people who are growing increasingly, in fact, not really opposing any Taiwanese politician that tries to maintain some sort of engagement with China because they believe that this might, in fact, help to reduce the risk of heightened tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
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Georgina Godwin
And David, I wonder how this visit fits into the wider China US Picture ahead of the summit between Xi and Trump.
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David Schlesinger
Well, the problem is we don't really know what Trump thinks, and what Trump thinks changes from day to day. He seems to like strong men who take strong action, and that would be certainly a plus in the Xi camp. However, he is surrounded by a lot of China hawks, like Rubio, for example, who continue the traditional US Support for Taiwan as this bulkhead against China's expansion. So I think the US Position is up for grabs at the moment, and we cannot assume that it will just be the traditional business as usual because Trump is erratic, he likes Xi on a personal level, and he likes strongmen. So you don't know what he's going to do.
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Georgina Godwin
And William, finally, I wonder where this leaves Taiwan at present. Could we be looking, is there a scenario where Chen Li does a deal with, with the US and with Beijing that that's going to gently, well, ease out the dpp?
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William Yang
That's definitely a potential likelihood because generally one has been one of the most prominent voices that opposed the Taiwanese government's efforts to significantly increase Taiwan's defense spending and strengthen defense capabilities. And China might very well be looking to use her visit as a signal to washing it, in fact has a whaling partner in Taiwan that is not going to pursue the preferred path that the US wants to see Taiwan go after, which is to strengthen its defense spending and selling more weapons to Taiwan. And in fact, there is an alternative path for Taiwan to consider. And now China is cultivating a closer tie with, with that particular faction of the Taiwanese political forces. So if that in fact becomes an effective way to put pressure on Donald Trump when the two leaders meet in Beijing in May, which China very well is going to actually voice its opposition to US arms sales to Taiwan, then that might in fact play a role in shaping Trump's thinking during that process.
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Georgina Godwin
William, thank you. That's William Yang is speaking to us from Taipei and David Schlesinger here in the studio. Thank you very much indeed. Now, still to come on the programme, we'll be checking in with our Zurich studio and Emily Isaho is there. Emily, what's on your radar today?
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Emily Isaaho
We'll be talking about the recent drone incursions into the airspace of Finland and how the country, now exactly three years into its NATO membership, is stepping up its defense and what these dynamics tell us about the changing nature of conflict in Europe.
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Georgina Godwin
Excellent. We'll be back with you soon. This is the globalist
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UBS Narrator
craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into three thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Georgina Godwin
Well, let's continue now with today's newspapers and joining me is Monocle Radio regular and good friend Charles Hecker. He's a risk analyst, a Russia expert and the author of the Arc of International Business in Russia. Charles, I love that just before the show I introduced you and David in the green room going, Charles Rusher. David, China.
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Charles Hecker
It's good to have a role in life.
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Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. And I can also tell you something else. David was in here before the show started and we were playing music as we do. It was connect 200 and both my producer and our sound engineer. So that's Angelica and Steph were dancing behind the glass. David is an incredible dancer.
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Charles Hecker
Uh oh, that sounds like a challenge, Georgina.
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Georgina Godwin
Yeah. Well I'm expecting you to up your movement game next time you're in the studio.
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Charles Hecker
Roll the music.
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Georgina Godwin
Right now though, I want you to Tell us about JD Vance visiting Hungary to boost Orban before the election. Now this is a story in the New York Times. He's going there and he's perhaps they're hoping for some kind of Argentina type result. Will they get it?
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Charles Hecker
That's exactly right. Kicking off the Morning Review, the papers were going to the New York Times that blasts a headline saying Vance to visit Hungary to boost Orban before election. Georgina, Viktor Orban has been the Prime Minister of Hungary for 16 very long years. The European Union cannot wait to see the back of this national figure. And elections are on Sunday. The Prime Minister's campaign is in deep trouble. He is way behind in the polls to a former member of his own party called Peter Magyar, who is younger, who is more energetic and who is leading a campaign based on anti corruption, pro EU and economic growth which has stagnated significantly under Viktor Orban. So the campaign for Orban is in trouble and who comes to the rescue? None other than J.D. vance. He will be campaigning on Orban's behalf today in Hungary in Budapest. And you're absolutely right, Georgina. The White House is hoping for a sort of Milei style boost in the polls that happened in Argentina. It's interesting though, because, you know, we wonder whether they've put their money on the right horse here. One of the reasons that Hungary's economy will probably continue to suffer will stem from the increase in the price of oil as a result of the United States war on Iran. And so sending somebody who is popular with Orban, he may not prove to be as popular with the voting Hungarian public. So this is a slightly risky move from the United States, but of course Hungary is the MAGA bulkhead in Europe. And really there's a sympathy between Orban and Vance because you recall that when Vance went to the Munich Security Conference and said that the European Union is throttling free speech in the eu, he meant Viktor Orban when he talked about this.
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Georgina Godwin
Yeah, and of course the EU's hoping it goes from a MAGA to a Magyar stronghold. The gas pipe threat in Hungary, though, is something that Orban has been doubling down on. Now, there was an explosives or a lot of explosives found near this gas pipe. Orban said it was Ukraine. He's now doubled down on that. This is something that's also carried on the front page of the Guardian today.
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Charles Hecker
That's right. There's that important story on the front page of the Guardian that points towards what is being framed as a false flag operation at a sort of pre election emergency stunt. And that is to try to rally voters around the flag in Hungary. Orban has claimed that Serbia has detected explosives, a massive amount of destructive explosives, around the pipeline that carries Russian oil to Hungary. One of the things that Hungary and Orban has done is that they have painted Ukraine as the bogeyman for Hungary here, that Ukraine somehow presents a threat to Hungarian security. And so in order to thwart that threat, voters need to rally around Orban to protect Russian oil supplies, Russian energy supplies to the country. This is being called out as a very, very bald sort of fraud and election move, and that there is no threat to the hunger to the oil pipeline and that Serbia and Hungary have essentially concocted this to try to skew the vote in advance of Sunday.
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Georgina Godwin
Let's move on. Excuse me. Let's move on to the Financial Times now. And of course, because when we look at the war with Iran, one thing that's happening is we look at the economic fallout. We're seeing actually that there possibly is a lot of money being made, particularly by insider trading from investors and shorting and all sorts of things going on in the us. But back to Britain and money being made here too. And this is because of defence boom that's set to invigorate particularly the city of Plymouth.
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Charles Hecker
That's right, Georgina. There's a very big headline in the Financial Times. It says, we're at a tipping point. The defense boom set to reinvigorate Plymouth. Now, before I jump into the body of the story, I have a tiny bone to pick with the Financial Times, because, you know, Plymouth, of course, is a legendary British English maritime city. And the FT tells us that this is where Francis Drake set out on his mission to defeat the Spanish Armada in 1588. And I have a slightly American framing to put on this story, of course, because Plymouth, in the American mind, is the place where the original pilgrims set forth from on the Mayflower in 1620. But no matter how you look at it, Plymouth is in for an enormous boom. And that's important because this maritime town, as a result of defense cuts over the past couple of decades, has fallen on hard times. But Plymouth is now in line for a 4.4 billion pound boost because the next generation of British submarines and the next generation of nuclear warheads that they will carry as part of Britain's nuclear maritime threat to Russia and others, is all going to be placed in Plymouth. And the. The head of the Plymouth Council, an individual called Tudor Evans, very sort of romantically and lyrically named gentleman, is saying that the high street will regenerate, housing will regenerate, and that the population of Plymouth itself will increase by up to 10% as a result of influx of maritime workers and all of the people who will be helping this sector. So this sleepy maritime town on the very, very tip of Britain is looking at an absolute massive boom.
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Georgina Godwin
Very quick look at the Moscow Times. I know one of your favorite publications, in fact, you used to work for them. China signals Readiness to extend visa Free regime for Russians.
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Charles Hecker
That's right. So looking at the publication from a piece today from my alma mater, the Moscow Times, this is an interesting. As we look at, as the show has looked at China's influence around the world, we look at the relationship between Russia and China, and Russia and China are allowing each others, tourists and business people and visitors to travel back and forth and cross the border without a visa. They've done that for a year and the experiment has gone very well. Tourism mutually across each other's borders has increased dramatically. According to some quotes, Chinese tourism into Russia has increased by 400%. And so what Beijing and Moscow have agreed is to let this go on for another year. This fits in very conveniently for China. And it just goes to show the complexity of geopolitics in the region, and that is that we've discussed previously on this show, Georgina, that Chinese tourists are being discouraged from visiting Japan. And so they need a quick winter or even summertime alternative to run somewhere else for a bit of R and R. And Russia has filled the gap. And so the two capitals have decided that for another year to come they will relax visa requirements completely remove visa requirements between the two countries, allowing another influx of tourism across the borders.
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Georgina Godwin
Charles, before we go, just something I'm very pleased to see. We're covering poetry, which is not something we normally do, but I have to say I can't even say the name of the collection because I suffer, and this is a very intimate detail for you, I suffer from trichophobia.
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Charles Hecker
You'll have to tell me what that is.
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Georgina Godwin
Fear of hair, specifically other people's hair touching me on the tube.
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Charles Hecker
Okay, well, then we will tread very gently. Although this story in the Japan Times, of course caught my eye, Georgina, because we were talking about a literary prize and prominent as you are on the literary prize scene, how could I not talk about the winning of the 76th annual Mr. H Poetry Prize, which sounds slightly obscurely named, but it is one of the major literary prizes in Japan and it has gone to a Japanese poet called Takaki Biwa and her winning submission, La La la la la la la la Has. Okay, well, trigger warning for everybody out there who has trichoph. This winning collection of poetry, Takaki's debut collection is called river of Hair. It is an exploration of personal trauma as expressed in and through body parts other than hair. But including hair, this is an important prize. It carries a prize of a fund of 500,000 yen. Although the yen is quite weak right now, that only translates to slightly more than 2,000 pounds. But still, Takaki is a young and upcoming poet. And river of hair consists of two parts with poems selected from a span of 15 years of Takaki's writing.
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Georgina Godwin
Well, and hopefully we could actually get the poet Takakibua onto the show with us. I mean, that would be marvellous if they came on to Meet the Writers, don't you think?
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Charles Hecker
Chapter I think that there's a slot waiting for a Japanese poet on Meet the Writers. Takaki Biwa has a wide array of interests. It would make her a very interesting interview subject. She's interested in writing song lyrics, she studied children's literature, she's fond of picture books, and she even talks about how in Britain, at least at some point in British history, children were exposed to poetry at a very, very young age and becomes a part of children's daily lives. And Takaki Biwa would like to see that happen in Japan. I bet she's got a lot to talk about.
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Georgina Godwin
J Absolutely. It's amazing. And you ingest that poetry, you've always got something to entertain yourself with later. I find it fantastic. And just if you are looking forward to an interview with a poet, I can tell you that one of our very recent Meet the writers, in fact, the most recent is with Sasha Debevik McKenney, who is an American poet, and she came onto the show to talk about joy. And it is indeed a joyous interview. Charles Hecker, thank you very much indeed. You're with the Globalist, our Monocle Ray. Now, here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by a set deadline this evening, warning the US could destroy the country's infrastructure in one night if it refuses. Iran has rejected temporary ceasefire proposals and negotiations are complicated by communication delays, while legal experts warn such threats could amount to war crimes. And regional tensions continue to escalate. Airlines are cutting capacity, carrying extra fuel and adding refuelling stops as disruption to supplies from the Gulf constrains nearly a fifth of global jet fuel flows. Prices have more than doubled. Demand remains resilient despite higher fares and analysts warn deeper flight cuts may be needed if shortages persist. At least 10 people have been killed in an Israeli strike near a school for displaced Palestinians in central Gaza following clashes involving an Israeli backed militia. The violence has strained a fragile ceasefire prompting the WHO to suspend evacuations and added to mounting casualties and humanitarian pressure in the territory. And NASA's Artemis 2 mission has surpassed the Apollo 13 distance record as astronauts conduct a rare crude flyby of the moon's far side. The mission is a key step in plans to return humans to the lunar surface by 2028 and establish a long term prospect presence ahead of rival programmes. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It's 8:32 in Zurich, 732 here in London. Now Finland is tightening its response to suspected drone incursions and rising military activity in the Baltic Sea as the war in Ukraine drifts closer to its borders. Now on NATO's frontline, Helsinki is increasing surveillance, running counter drone exercises and coordinating more closely with allies. But alongside those actions, there is a question about how a country built on consensus handles a more ambiguous long term threat well. So joining me from Studio 4 in our Zurich headquarters is Emilio Isaho, who's managing director for Peace Mediation at ETH in Zurich. Good to have you back, Emily. Tell us more about these drone incursions. How serious are they?
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Scott Lucas
They.
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Emily Isaaho
Good morning, Georgina. Indeed. A little over a week ago, a few drones ended up on the wrong side of the border, one can say, entering Finnish airspace and crashing near the southeastern Finnish city of Kovola. And these drones were Ukrainian. So Ukraine has recently been carrying out drone strikes, plenty of drone strikes and Russian oil infrastructure near the Gulf of Finland. So in this region of the Baltic Sea between Estonia, Russia and Finland. And at least one of these drones that ended up in Finland is reported to have carried some ammunition. So relatively severe of an incident. And the reason why they ended up in Finland, Finland was never the intended target was due to Russian electronic interference. So Russia has been using GPS jamming and spoofing extensively in the region. So this kind of electronic warfare can confuse drone navigation systems, pushing them off course and now for the first time into Finland. We've seen similar incidences in the Baltic countries and in the Finnish case it did expose some gaps in Finland's defense. So these drones were not detected early enough, or at least one of them and authorities chose not to shoot them down due to safety risks and there was no real time public warning system in place at the time.
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Georgina Godwin
So how prepared then is Finland for sustained pressure? Because presumably this is just going to continue.
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Emily Isaaho
Indeed it's likely to continue. And actually Finland has not asked Ukraine to discontinue with these attacks. So most immediately, Finland has launched a five day anti drone exercise in the Gulf of Finland. So this started now, this past Sunday and will run until Thursday, involving coast guard vessels, a patrol ship and armed forces boats. And the focus is on very much on detecting, jamming and shooting down drones at sea. So the goal is to stop drones before they reach land, the idea being that it's safer to neutralize drones over water rather than over civilian populations. On top of this, Finland is of course investing in anti drone systems. Most recently, the border guard earlier this year announced the development of a new anti drone system together with the Finnish company Senso Fusion that will be part of a broader long term effort to build European and national drone defense capabilities. And finally, quite importantly, in terms of public warning systems, Finland latest next year will go live with a new app and an SMS alert system so that people living in areas affected by drones will be informed in time. Similar systems are already in place in Ukraine and in the Baltic states. But again a week ago, when these drones ended up in Finland, the public was not informed in time.
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Georgina Godwin
Emily, Finland's always had a strong consensus on security. Does this leave too little room for critical debate? Are Finns asking enough questions about this response?
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Emily Isaaho
It's interesting this is being talked about at the moment. How are we talking about security and our discussion defense policy in Finland? Just over the weekend, the paper of record, Helsingin Sanomat had a big piece on this. So as you mentioned, there is a strong tradition and a long tradition of being pragmatic and consensus driven when it comes to security policy and foreign policy. Security is often treated as a, quote, unquote existential issue, which tends to discourage dissenting views. And there is a concern that critical voices are quickly labeled as irresponsible or even risky, particularly when it comes to sensitive topics like relations with Russia. And that does create kind of a self censorship among politicians, experts and media. So while there is broad consensus on defense and foreign policy, including NATO membership, increasingly there's discussions on whether we should have more debates in the Finnish public discourse. And further, for instance, now the current government has proposed lifting a blanket ban on nuclear weapon imports, which is a long standing policy that has been placed in Finland and that is now being criticized also politically. So you see some changes, but they're still very much thinking that unity is a major strategic Advantage.
- [38:33]
Georgina Godwin
Emily, thank you very much indeed. That's Emily Isaaho in our Zurich studio. This is Monica Ray video. At this time of geopolitical tensions, war and high prices, we look now at the rising global relevance of Latin America and how it's faring in the current world order. As a major global food producer and exporter and home to many oil producing countries, it's in a good position to withstand the numerous economic setbacks globally. Well, to find out more, Monocle Radio's senior correspondent spoke with Rodolfo Molesi, who's founder of the Branding Latin America group.
- [39:13]
Rodolfo Molesi
From the continent point of view, the only continent where there is some sort of safety, some peace, some opportunities that I think little by little are showing up. So I believe that entrepreneurs, professionals and not just digital nomads, I'm talking about investors. And now looking at Latin America and in a way, way, this is why the phenomenon for Miami also makes a lot of sense because big part of the Latin American business community is there.
- [39:45]
Fernando Augusto Pecceco
It's interesting that you mentioned Miami and all these places, but for a long time I think Latin America was seen as the emerging market but almost kind of left out of the main conversation. Do you think the region is ready to kind of go a level up
- [40:01]
Rodolfo Molesi
of that affirmation without going into politics? I believe that now is more ready than before because especially in the last one or two years most elections were won by pro business political leaders. Obviously there is so much to do in terms of cleaning and putting everything in order in terms of the economies of our countries. But as the world now is looking at Latin America as a place to invest or at least a place to explore, having now governments that are more open to the international markets in terms of trade investment, in terms of tourism. I believe that Latin America now is more ready than before to cope because the political leaders are looking outside in order to get more investment and to get more opportunities, opportunities for the prosperity of the people.
- [40:56]
Fernando Augusto Pecceco
And it's interesting you mentioned that pro business because from what I see as well in Latin America, like left and right, they can be pro business. You know, it's not just necessarily just the candidate of the right or of the left. Do you see that as well?
- [41:09]
Rodolfo Molesi
Yes, I definitely see that the world is now shifting into different approach from the global point of view. Latin America is, if you see what's going on in terms of the reputation of Latin America. So we know each other for almost 20 years and before that I felt that I was just promoting Latin American entrepreneurs, Latin American governments abroad and now, in terms of, for example, my company, we are a PR agency, 50% of our clients now are from other parts of the world looking to expand or looking to invest into Latin America. So when I started my enterprise, 100% of my clients were Latin Americans looking to get into the UK market, American market, Middle East Asia, but now Middle East Asia, UK America is coming to us to see what they can do in Latin America. So Latin America now is a key market. So the shift is happening. Of course, our region, as you know very well, is not perfect, but the changes in the last 20 years were very positive. People now is more aware because people before was just looking at Latin America through the television, but now people is traveling, the airlines are going to everywhere. British Airways was only going to Mexico and Brazil and now is going to seven, eight destinations in Latin America. So the level of awareness, awareness, which means the level of stereotypes has decreased a lot. So people is not anymore having wrong concepts of Latin America.
- [42:51]
Fernando Augusto Pecceco
Just look at your country, Argentina. I'm always looking at Argentina for music. For example, have Katria, Paco, Morozo people, you know, they literally go into the global charts, right? They are doing very well outside the region and as well.
- [43:04]
Rodolfo Molesi
Yes, and in that way, I think all these soft concepts. No, but I wouldn't say that music and art are soft concepts. But you know, in a way that's what helped Latin America to be more friendly and an opportunity for many people that perhaps now don't feel secure in Dubai or even in London. So I believe that all of this, the gastronomy, the music, all of these soft concepts have helped Latin America to be a more welcoming part of the world and a part of the world where you will not rule out as an opportunity. For example, this morning I had my friends, my friend Sam in Monaco, so he's happy in Monaco, but he's sending me, for example, real estate opportunities to retire in Patagonia or in Buenos Aires. So good value for money, good quality of life and why not to create your own family and to have a different view for your future.
- [44:08]
Fernando Augusto Pecceco
Do you think the natural resources of the region helps as well? We're talking a lot about fuel prices here. A lot of Asian countries, you know, the price has really gone out of the roof. But you think our region is quite prepared, perhaps in that sense?
- [44:21]
Rodolfo Molesi
I think Venezuela is an interesting case now. So I believe that even though has always been producing oil, now the world can access to the oil in Venezuela. And I don't go into the politics, but if you ask me about the oil. Now, Venezuela is open for business and then you have Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Argentina, Brazil, all countries, Guatemala, all countries, oil producers. So the oil is not just in Middle east or in Russia, it's also in Latin America. So perhaps we need to work a little bit more on the trade channels, but for sure there is an opportunity now because the food trade is suffering in other parts of the world. Latin America, as you know, produces, I believe, 20 to 25% of the whole production of the world. So in terms of energy and in terms of food, even though we need to keep developing and investing in infrastructure, so we have food and we have oil, that's not something that we lack.
- [45:26]
Georgina Godwin
That was Rudolfo Milessi, founder of the Branding Latin America Group, speaking to Monocle Radio's Fernando Augusto Pecceco. This is the globalist on Monocle Radio.
- [45:45]
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- [46:20]
Georgina Godwin
15 minutes to the top of the hour and it's time for an aviation roundup. And to do so, I'm joined by the aviation analyst Sally Gethin. Good morning to you, Sally.
- [46:29]
Sally Gethin
Morning, Georgina.
- [46:30]
Georgina Godwin
So, of course, the events in Iran, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is affecting AFGAs. Now tell us about the jet fuel shortage which is starting to bite at airports and airlines around the world.
- [46:44]
Sally Gethin
Yes, it really is, Georgina. And what we're seeing is airlines in Asia initially reacting and starting to cut back flights, but particularly in Europe now. And the UK is very much exposed as well, due to a reliance on jet fuel from the Gulf states. So. So the concern is in Italy at the moment in particular, where four airports in northern Italy have said that they will be likely to cut back on fuel. I mean, jet fuel goes through quite a complex process from transshipment and refineries and then being stored at airports. So obviously it varies airport to airport, but the general view amongst the airline industry is years at this moment, that we're only looking at a time frame of weeks actually, before they will really have to start cutting back. Flights In Europe in particular, we're talking maybe four to five weeks, six to eight weeks, that kind of time frame.
- [47:54]
Georgina Godwin
And what is that doing to ticket prices?
- [47:59]
Sally Gethin
Well, ticket prices have already soared, excuse the pun, because obviously, in anticipation of the potential Shortages. And so they've already spiked and gone up incrementally in the last few weeks and that is only likely to continue. I think in terms of specifics of the reaction, what airlines are suggesting they will do is cut back on the very dense routes and also very thin routes. When we say thin, perhaps just one or two flights a week to a more underserved destination and then the, the more populous routes where perhaps a large hub is, is served, you know, in, in very high quantities of flights. But anyway, we're going to see higher fares and fewer, fewer routes.
- [48:57]
Georgina Godwin
Now, Sally, in the last fortnight I've been on four British Airways flights. They always say WI Fi for, you know, club members, available, freely available, it's not. But they're saying that it will have onboard connectivity with Starlink very soon.
- [49:14]
Sally Gethin
Yeah. So I've actually been part of this journey in a way of the industry adopting Wi Fi and Internet, we call it, in flight connectivity on airlines for about 20 odd years. And we are really now at that watershed moment where because of Starlink, which consists of low Earth orbit satellites, 10,000 orbiting the Earth very fast broadband is available to come to airplanes and free of charge. Now, of course, somebody has to pay for it, but it's going to be free for passengers. So your experience, Georgina, should improve no end when you're next on your BAA flight. And with no limit on the number of devices you can use this broadband on. And the speeds should be a lot better as well. Now the big fly in the ointment is that British Airways is the first airline to announce a lifting of a ban, well, a loose ban, if you like, on voice calls in flight. And that's causing a bit of a stir amongst the consumer market actually, is, you know, there is a fear amongst passengers about that.
- [50:30]
Georgina Godwin
I can completely understand why. I mean, how dreadful to have somebody having a telephone conversation next to you.
- [50:36]
Sally Gethin
Well, British Airways has said, you know, keep your headphones on and your voice low, but we've all seen rising incidents of unruly behavior, as the US would call it, on board, particularly during the pandemic and since as well. And so it can be the hairbreadth trigger that causes that. So we'll have to see how that happens because that was a big, big no, no, if you like, over, over the years as Internet developed, I should add, with Starlink and this broadband, it's not available over certain continents like India yet, so it won't be complete global blanket coverage to begin with. But again, it's a massive step forward And BA is rolling it out over the course of this year onto its widebody fleet.
- [51:24]
Georgina Godwin
Now, Yesterday was Lufthansa's 100th anniversary. How did they celebrate?
- [51:30]
Sally Gethin
Yeah, so they. They celebrated by mimicking or copying the two inaugural flights 100 years ago that left out. Out of the old Berlin airport at that time. But, yeah, so they put on some flights from Frankfurt and Munich and to a great fanfare. And, I mean, Lufthansa deserved this accolade, really. They've also, incidentally, introduced a centenary livery, which is very impressive. Taking the crane, which normally is a feature on the. On the. On the actual tip of the airplane, and, and put that sort of superimposed it across the entire fuselage as well, and put 100 on the underbelly too. So, you know, a lot, a lot of fanfare to that. And, of course, Lufthansa has done phenomenally well and initiated the alliance back in the day and has always adopted the latest generation aircraft and has always been known to be not only a legacy airline, but a very reliable one and one going with new technology and a strong passenger experience.
- [52:47]
Georgina Godwin
Sally, thank you very much indeed. That's Sally Gethin there, the aviation analyst. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now, Switzerland is considering tighter limits on wine imports, led by President Guy Pamelain, who is himself a former winemaker. The move's designed to protect domestic producers as consumption falls and competition from neighbouring countries remains strong. But as Switzerland imports the vast majority of its wine, there are questions about who really benefits and if it risks solving the wrong problem. Well, I'm joined now from Zurich by the wine expert Chandra Kurt, who is editor of Wine Cellar Journal. Chandra, I'm very upset that we're actually in different cities, because when we're in the same space, you always very kindly bring wine with you. Although I have to admit, it is a little early even for me.
- [53:49]
Chandra Kurt
Good morning, Jordinia. Absolutely. And, you know, I always bring Swiss wine when I come to see. So, yeah, next time I will come to London again.
- [53:57]
Georgina Godwin
Can we start with some figures? How much wine is imported and exported to and from Switzerland? How important is this market?
- [54:06]
Chandra Kurt
Well, actually, the import is more important right now than the export. Just to give you some figures, Switzerland is a small wine country, like 15,000 hectares. You can compare it to the size of Alsace. So it's really small and we produce a bit about 82 million million liters, but we consume about like 200 million liters. So we always. The country was always a very diverse country. She always was open for import wine because we don't produce enough for the local consumption.
- [54:35]
Georgina Godwin
So what is this, this whole new proposal about?
- [54:38]
Chandra Kurt
Well, I mean the whole wine industry, the global wine industry is in a big crisis. I mean things are changing. People drink less, there are new drinking habits. There's also an economic aspect. There's, you know, people have maybe a little bit less money and then you don't buy wine. And this also didn't stop in Switzerland. So also our consumption went down and especially also consumption of Swiss wine went a little bit more drastic down it than in the past. So you could see there is a crisis. So of course the winemakers, they get nervous and they look for solution how this can be changed.
- [55:13]
Georgina Godwin
And so the solution is what and who gains most from that?
- [55:18]
Chandra Kurt
Yeah, so of course there, you know, you have to know that till 2001 Switzerland was more regulated. So import was much more difficult, it cost much more, it was not open in 2001, they opened the import. So you hardly for nothing, it's hardly taxes to pay to import wines. And then when you compare other countries that can produce, like they have vast countryside, they can produce much cheaper than Switzerland, there is some nervosity. And now the idea is of course that you regulate again, that you close the borders and only people that produce Swiss wine or sell Swiss wine get this contingent that they can import foreign wine. Which of course makes now a big noise in the whole industry.
- [56:00]
Georgina Godwin
And some of the industry is pushing back. Who's that and why?
- [56:04]
Chandra Kurt
Because there are different wine regions and for example, where I live, the Swiss German region with the Grison and the Pinot Noir culture, these farmers like say they sell direct from, also from their places, they don't have problem to sell their wine. I think that the high end wine, the specific wine, they sell all their wines. It's more if you go to the Swiss French area where our main white wine grape, the Schasselr, it's maybe not everybody's taste. So. And I think Schasselr also has to do a little bit the Renaissance. So they, they're afraid that no, nobody drinks anymore their wine.
- [56:39]
Georgina Godwin
So I mean, there's some suggestion that Switzerland is trying to protect the wrong thing. What would you say to that?
- [56:44]
Chandra Kurt
No, I think it's important, you know, I think it's also important that Parmena used to or knows the wine. It's good to have a president that knows the wine industry and drinks also wine. But I think maybe closing the border is maybe not the most creative solution. It's more to watch. What do young people do? Drink. You know, for example, sparkling wine is growing, aromatic wine is growing, high end wine is growing. So maybe we have to learn also to adapt a little bit to the change that drinking changes.
- [57:15]
Georgina Godwin
Right. And finally, Chandra, tell us, what should we be drinking if we were going to concentrate on Swiss wine only this spring? What's palatable for this change in the weather now?
- [57:26]
Chandra Kurt
So, you know, there I can go back to our main grape, de Schoesle. And I just recently found a wonderful new interpretation of this wine by a young winemaker, Roxanne Fenoll. She buys the grapes and she vinifies them, like in a natural, more funky style. So it's really a dynamic, fresh, young wine. Not with some, I would say it's like almost energy in it. And it's called like from Intercellar Calera, so something very nice. And then it's also the season of the asparagus. So you always ask yourself which wine goes with asparagus? And then we have Johannesberg, which is also called Til Wander from Provan, the biggest winery in the valley. And they just launched a new, very nice, juicy Johannesberg that will fit perfectly.
- [58:12]
Georgina Godwin
I mean, those both sound gorgeous. Are they? But they're both white. Would you be drinking red in the spring?
- [58:19]
Chandra Kurt
Well, I have to say that I start to drink more and more white wines. And if you drink a red wine, I will go for like a light Pinot. No, morph. From. From the. From, like, like from the flesh, from the mountain area of the Grison. And you drink it like slightly chilled and it will fit as well.
- [58:36]
Georgina Godwin
I understand Pinot Noir has the fewest calories of any wine available. Is that true?
- [58:40]
Chandra Kurt
Well, there. You know something I don't know?
- [58:43]
Georgina Godwin
Lifetime of dieting, let me tell you. Pinot Noir is the one. If you're wanting to cut down on the calories, which we shouldn't do, because just drinking wine is fabulous, particularly with you, Chandra. I look forward to doing it with you. You again very, very soon. Thank you very much to Chandra Kurt. And that's all for today's programme. Thanks also to our producers, Angelica Jopson, Laura Kramer and Desiree Bandley. Desi looked after the sound in Zurich and our studio manager here was Steph Chungu. After the headlines, there's more music on the way and the briefing is live at midday. The Globalist will return at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening.
- [59:35]
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