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UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on the 4th of March 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
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Renard Mansour
Foreign.
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Emma Nelson
This is the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, the US says it struck 2,000 targets in Iran as part of its joint bombing campaign with Israel. We'll get the latest as the US and Israel continue their bombardment. Also, we'll focus on Turkey as it becomes a destination for Iranians fleeing war. We'll examine the role Ankara wants to play as the whole region is drawn into the conflict. Plus, Six months after young people's protests brought down the Nepali government, the country holds its first elections. We'll examine what's up for grabs and whether this is a real chance for democratic change. And China's double meetings of defence and economy are held this week. We'll look ahead to them and we'll hear the latest news from the world of TV and look at the world of luxury travel too. That's all coming up on the Globalist, live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. The international prices of oil and gas have risen again as concerns grow that supplies could be affected by the conflict in Iran. Myanmar's junta has said it's to ration the use of private cars as part of fears over the supply of fuel. Fuel and prosecutors in Cuba have charged six people with terrorism in connection with an incident last week. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, the United States says it struck 2,000 targets in Iran as part of its joint bombing campaign with Israel. Yesterday, for the first time since the US and Israel launched their strikes on Iran, the US President has taken questions from reporters. And Donald Trump claimed that just about everything in Iran has been knocked out. Out. Well, I'm joined now by Renard Mansour, who's a senior research fellow of the Middle east and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. Very good morning to you, Renard.
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Renard Mansour
Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
So the effect of 2000 strikes, what would they be?
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Renard Mansour
The intention is to completely decapitate and degrade most of Iran's military infrastructure. So that's, you know, the Navy, but also the military, the army, the ability for Iran to launch its drones and its ballistic missiles. The idea is decapitation, shock and awe, to use an old term that the Americans used to use, and to Showcase also the US's superiority, to show that this is a war that will end soon, there'll be a mission accomplished soon, and that the US and Israel will win this war, to cast any doubt that Iran has a chance and that this war could drag on and on. So, I mean, the White House has spoken about many different objectives, sometimes contradictory in itself. Is this about regime change? Is this about just removing the ayatollah who was killed a few days ago? But very clearly this is to showcase US superiority in sort of conventional military terms.
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Emma Nelson
That's what the Americans want. Is this likely to happen at the timescale or indeed at all that Washington desires?
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Renard Mansour
So I think clearly there's a clear mismatch in terms of conventional military terms. I mean, the US and Israel, two, the most powerful militaries, will certainly be able to decapitate Iran's military. However, what we know from previous sort of campaigns, including the 2003 Iraq War, which, again, the slogan was shock and awe, is you can declare a military accomplishment. You can, you know, militaries can destroy, but that doesn't necessarily lead to what will be built afterwards. Militaries don't build. And I think that's where many people who are looking at this have deep concerns is there is significant civilian casualties. There is certainly a system that's attempted to be destroyed, but it's very hard to see what comes next, whether that is genuine regime change or whether segments of the Iranian system, which is still quite durable and it's in survival mode and it's built to survive, will just be able to pick up and survive after this. So certainly it'll be a matter of weeks, as the US is saying, for the military side to show its victory. But this war and this conflict will take many, many, many more months, if not years, to reach whatever the other end state is, which is still unclear, which is part of the problem indeed.
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Emma Nelson
And messages that are coming out, warnings that are coming out from Tehran themselves, are those of defiance and those of powerful resistance. Because we have the Revolutionary Guard in the last couple of hours saying that it still has complete control of the state of Hormuz. 20% of the world's oil passes down the Strait of Hormuz. It says it is declaring this patch of Water closed, it could cause huge amounts of disruption globally. Donald Trump has come back and said, actually no, we will provide insurance. The U.S. navy will escort those vessels and those tankers wishing to, to, to go on their way. But the fact remains is regardless of what is happening internationally, Iran is still able to cause an enormous amount of chaos.
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Renard Mansour
That's correct. And, and this is a system that's not, was not built around one man. This is a system that of institutions that, that is still able to endure and to function. And a system that was anticipating this scenario. This scenario perhaps several years ago would have been unthinkable for the Iranians. But in the last, you know, since October 7th, but certainly since last year's June war, the 12 Day War, you know, there have been preparations for this scenario. And so part of that is how to develop a system, a state of institutions that is able to endure and withstand decapitation attempts and decapitation campaigns. So the IRGC is very much there that, you know, there are, the military is very much there, the state is very much there. And, and it will take a lot more than what the US Is planning in terms of military terms to really dismantle, which is why the question of regime change and uprising becomes important. The US really, to pursue its campaign needs something from the society to come up and to, from the bottom up, go against these systems. And that, I think is where it would be more tricky. If that doesn't happen, then the IRGC is built to endure.
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Emma Nelson
Let's have a move now to the more international picture as this conflict seems to touch absolutely every single country that is not just next to Iran, but is just simply nearby. Renat, stay with us. And I would like you to listen in to hearing what we're going to say from Emily Withers. She's a journalist based in the city of Van in Turkey. A very good morning to you, Emily.
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Emily Withers
Hello. Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
And Van is what, on the border? It's very, very close between the Turkish Iranian border.
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Emily Withers
Yeah, that's right. So Turkey's got three border crossings with Iran. One of them is in the city of Van, well, a few hours from the city of Van. And the border crossings have remained open. They were closed, it seemed, for a couple of days, but we're not exactly sure why. But now Iranians are, as they always are, able to come into the country on a 90 day tourist visa and some are taking advantage of that.
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Emma Nelson
And tell me you've been to the border crossing over the last few days. What's it been like?
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Emily Withers
So we're not seeing huge numbers of people at the moment, but we are seeing a slight increase in people coming. And the people I've been speaking to, they've been describing hearing bomb blasts, seeing explosions and fires and feeling terrified. What's interesting is so many people don't seem to have a plan. Their only plan was to get out and to get to safety. I spoke to one woman who said she got in her car in Tehran, there was really bad traffic and she just wanted to. Wanted to get her three year old daughter out of the country. I spoke to another man who was just dropping his family off and then planning to go back and talking to people. Feelings are very mixed. I spoke to a number of people who thanked Trump for what he'd done. But then there were others who were anti regime and they wanted to see change, but said that this was not the way to go about it. Some people are also crossing. For practical reasons, we can't say that all these people coming across are necessarily anti regime. People are coming because they have family here. There's a huge Iranian dysphoria in Turkey and there's not really a good Internet in Turkey. So some people I spoke to just wanted to get an Internet connection so they could carry on with their jobs. And I thought what was most striking was how people had no idea what the future held. Some people were hopeful. One woman said, no one can predict what is going to happen, but everyone has hope. But when you ask people what does the future look like, they just can't tell you. They can't make a prediction. So it's a real reflection of just how many unknowns there are right now. And I think we can listen to some of the people that I spoke to.
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Emma Nelson
Now, this is a kind of a
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Dinesh Kafla
mixed bag, of course, celebration is there.
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Isabel Hilton
There are some supporters as well.
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Dinesh Kafla
They're mourning the death of the leader and other generals or other officials. It's hard to predict, but maybe they're on their last legs.
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Emma Nelson
It was quiet, but there was a fire that was near our home and our home just shaking like earthquake. And that was terrible. Yeah, actually it's not good. It's not good feeling. But the result is important. Now, the bombing our country is not good. How would you feel if they were
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Scott Brown
bombing your whole country?
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Emma Nelson
Nothing. They can't do a thing to Iran. You obviously feel very passionately about it. What's the mood among your neighbors, your friends? Everybody feels the same way.
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Dinesh Kafla
It doesn't mean that something is bad
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Emma Nelson
has to be replaced with worse.
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Tom Marchant
You think Israel or The US Care
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Dinesh Kafla
the least bit about one inch of
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Emma Nelson
Turkey or Iran or anywhere else. Emily, those are some of the people that you've been talking to on the Turkish Iranian border. But let's examine what role Turkey is playing in this conflict. We often have the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who positions himself as a broker and a mediator and host of talks. We've seen this happen with the Russian, Ukrainian conflict. But what role does Turkey either wish or not wish to play in this?
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Emily Withers
Yeah, exactly. As you say there, Turkey is very much performing its360 the foreign policy role in this conflict as well. You know, Turkey is a NATO country and no other NATO country has the same depth of contact with what remains inside Iran. Turkey has very close relations with the Iranian government, the regime. They have a very pragmatic relationship. It's based on trade. There's strong economic ties between the two countries. But at the same time, Turkey's president, Tayyip Erdogan also has close ties with the US President Donald Trump. And we've heard that reflected in Turkey, Turkey's statements that it very much wants to stay out of this. It's called the attacks, a clear violation of international law, adding that Turkey shares the pain of the Iranian people. So Turkey has a real tricky balancing act here right now. And I think one of the big concerns at the moment for the Turks is another refugee crisis. Right now, the Iranians coming to Turkey, they're not refugees. They're arriving on these tourist visas, as I said, but they're able to come and go freely. But the concern is this is a country of over 90 million people and there is concerns in Turkey of a mass refugee exodus if this conflict starts to widen inside Iran, if it starts to hit more civilian targets. And Turkey already dealt with that with the Syrian conflict. They played host to over 4 million Syrians over the course of that war and saw the war spill over into their country. And they will not want to see this happening with Iran as well.
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Emma Nelson
Emily Wither at the Turkish Iranian border. Thank you so much for joining us on Monocle Radio. Still with us and listening, listening to that was Renat Mansoor. Welcome back, Renat. The unwillingness of Turkey to get involved in all this is almost reflecting of the wider issue that countries that are very being directly affected by this feeling we've got this morning, the US Raising travel warnings for Saudi Arabia, for Oman. We have the Israelis telling people in Lebanon to evacuate certain parts because they are carrying out missile attacks. The countries that Iran has wished to draw into the conflict, to act almost as a warning system to America, to try to use them to dissuade Washington, to make Washington stop this campaign. How effective is this policy?
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Renard Mansour
I think there's been almost a shock for a very long time. You can say there was this understanding of violence and almost an equilibrium of violence in which the Gulf states would understand, like we saw in the last, last year's June war, perhaps symbolic strikes on US bases in the Gulf that are easily repelled as a way for Iran to say we have retaliated, but not to stoke any type of regional uncertainty or regional conflict. This has changed. Iran is no longer playing by the old books, which, you know, obviously Israel and other countries have also not been playing by. But Iran has decided, no, this is, this is a new war. This is a new day, and this is the war. And so Iran has decided not just to use violence symbolically, but really to use violence as punishment to attack not just US bases, but where it thinks there are US targets, including hotels in the Gulf, but also on the energy supply, gas fields, oil fields across the region, really due to, to, to, to, to say that the Gulf, you were trying to stop this war, but you couldn't. And nothing can stop this war. This is real war. And this needs to, you know, the repercussions of this need to be felt in the region and also in, around the world.
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Emma Nelson
Renard Mansell from Chatham House, thank you for joining us on Monocle Radio. We turn to some other news now because the authorities in China hold the two most important gatherings in the calendar this week. The so called two sessions stand for the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the National People's Congress as well. While they are both important events, what purpose do they serve this year? To tell us all, I'm joined by Isabel Hilton, China expert and visiting professor at King's College London. Welcome back. Isabel, good morning to you.
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Isabel Hilton
Good morning, Emma.
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Emma Nelson
Explain to us what the focus is this year because we'll come to whether Iran has and the events in Iran will affect the way that China deals with its next year. But the significance, the purpose of these double meetings held very close together, the
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Isabel Hilton
meetings are always important because for people who watch China, they're one kind of window into the political process of the two. The National People's Congress actually has constitutional power. So the National People's Congress, if you want to change the constitution, as Xi Jinping did a few years back, to allow him to stay in office, you have to get NPC approval, which I have to say, hasn't been a problem. Almost nobody votes against something that the party wants. And the whole kind of political side of the Chinese state has been losing power to the party over Xi Jinping's time in office. This year, however, the significance is largely that the 15th Five Year Plan will be approved by the National People's Congress. So we'll get a pretty close look at China, China's intentions for the next five years. It's already been, you know, fairly visible, but this is the final unveiling of the plan.
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Emma Nelson
And do we know what's in this plan?
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Isabel Hilton
Well, yes, we have a pretty good idea what's in the plan. I mean, it's partly continuing as before, but it also, it's, you know, continuing as before in the sense that China has since 2015 been trying to make itself proof against adverse currents coming from outside, in other words, from the United States. So it has been, as we know, securing its supply chains. It's been focusing on exports, on industrial autonomy and on innovation. And those trends will definitely continue. We also, it would appear that the Chinese are trying to address long running problems that this model has created, which are that the economy is slowing down. They have been trying for 10 years to create a robust internal market, but people still are not spending money because households have too little a share of the national wealth. So people are reluctant to spend. That means China remains dependent on exporting and that is creating tensions around the world as the flood of cheap and increasingly high quality and high value Chinese goods is posing serious challenge to other industrial economies. So the failure to correct the internal market is creating international tensions and we will see more effort, efforts to try to correct that in the current five year, in the upcoming Five Year Plan.
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Emma Nelson
In that context, Isabel, what role does the conflict in Iran play? Given the fact that China's dependence on Iran's Iranian oil is significant, isn't it? And also if you have import export issues and you have the sheer logistics of the world's shipping lanes having to move quickly to try and accommodate things that are happening in the Strait of Hormuz, what does China need to do?
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Isabel Hilton
Well, the sheer logistics are probably the most immediate concern for China. It's true that China, almost all of Iran's oil was going to China, as was Venezuela's actually. And collectively they made up about 20% of China's oil imports. China, however, has been stockpiling oil. It's got about 100 days of oil stock, which doesn't mean that it doesn't have an effect on the economy, but it's not an immediate crisis. It was also supplies of things like fertilizer were also very important and shipping is absolutely vital to China as a major export economy. Again, we see over the past few years China's diversification of shipping routes. So its interest in the Arctic, for example, is one way of avoiding the potential choke points like the Straits of Hormuz. It's secured ports around the world. It has, in terms of energy, been building pipelines so that it's not entirely dependent on seaborne imports. So there's a certain amount of built in resilience. But as we see from Chinese commentary on this, it thoroughly disapproves of this way of conducting affairs. Wang Yi, the Politburo member and acting Foreign Minister, has been making a lot of phone calls and in a long statement he said that the point of military strength is to prevent war, not to not launch assaults on other countries and grave violations of sovereignty. So that's a fairly predictable position from China, but one I think that will, you know, get some echoes around the world.
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Emma Nelson
Isabel Hilton, China expert and visiting professor at King's College London, thank you as ever for joining us on the Globalist. Still to come on today's programme, it's
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Tom Marchant
not often that I'm blown away by hearing experience, but this has left me with my jaw on the floor. The culture is so respectful, it's so unique, but the landscapes take your breath away.
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Emma Nelson
We hear about trends for the luxury Travel Market in 2026. Stay tuned.
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UBS Narrator
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office, Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
Let's have a look at Today's newspapers. It's what, 721 here in London, Zoe Grunewelt is Westminster editor at the lead and is doing what we're all trying to do, which is to keep up with the headlines. Yes, it's absolutely astonishing the scale at which the things are changing. Absolutely. So what we will do is we will take a step back, we will pause and we'll talk about the things that we can talk about which aren't likely to change in the next 10 minutes, one of which, Zoe, is Donald Trump giving Keir Starmer a massive thump in the stomach yesterday?
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Zoe Grunewelt
Absolutely. So we know that Donald Trump is partial to expressing exactly how he feels about someone in the moment. But thus far, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has been able to avoid the wrath of Donald Trump. But things have changed quite quickly. The special relationship seems to have deteriorated quite rapidly since Starmer refused to join the US's initial strikes on Iran. Donald Trump has been ringing around various newspapers in the US as well as the uk. He told the sun on Monday that the relationship is obviously not what it was. He said that Keir Starmer is not Winston Churchill, which, you know, it's quite obvious, but as we know, Winston Churchill is kind of a bit of a hero here in the uk, so it definitely feels like a personal attack. He's just been very, very critical of Keir Starmer quite publicly in a press conference and to the various newspapers and has basically said that he's not happy with. He's spoken about the UK's refusal to let the US use the Chago Islands base and has just been talking about how the relationship is deteriorating. This is going to be a massive blow to Keir Starmer, who has thus far done his best to try and keep Donald Trump on side.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. And people have expressed surprise. There's an article in the Times today which explicitly asks the question, it's Katie Ball saying, is there a special relationship dead, why Trump turned on Britain. But the context of this is. Is very, very significant, isn't it? Firstly, Keir Starmer recognizes the damage done to both the Labour Party and to the British international reputation in 2003 with Tony Blair and going in with George Bush into Iraq. This is. And he has explicitly said, we're not doing this again. But when we've seen what the other countries are doing as well. Emmanuel Macron has said, we're not diving in on this one. Spain has just come in and said, we're not diving in on this one. Other countries are now saying this is a violation of international law. And one wonders whether a shouting match between Donald Trump and Keir Starmer is actually something which is permanent and threatening, or whether it is just something that can, and we have seen has been recovered from.
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Zoe Grunewelt
I think that's absolutely right. And there's also a question of actually, is it beneficial to Keir Starmer right now, domestically, politically, to have this kind of conflict with Donald Trump? Trump is not popular here. The papers might be lapping up his comments, but actually, voters don't really like Donald Trump and the definitely. I mean, the majority shows that they don't want the UK to join the US on striking Iran And Starmer has been struggling and we saw this in the by election last week with hemorrhaging support to the left. Obviously the Greens won this Gorton and Denton constituency from Labour. I think Keir Starmer might be making a calculation now that actually if he's got the bolstering of support from European allies and voters, then he may as well have a have it out with Donald Trump.
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Emma Nelson
Let's focus on an article about Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine and probably being pushed to the sidelines at the moment. But he has come out speaking very clearly, saying what is happening in Iran could actually hurt Ukraine, first and foremost, Russia. Okay. There is this fear about the amount of drones and the supply of armaments that the Russians could have as Iran is using its own drones to defend itself. But Russia is really, really good when it comes to making money when there is no oil anywhere else.
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Zoe Grunewelt
Absolutely. So Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told an Italian newspaper that, that he worries that Ukraine could find themselves having difficulty obtaining missiles and weapons to defend our skies because the Americans and the allies in the Middle east might need them to defend themselves. He also worries about focus being turned to the Iranian crisis. If this becomes a long war, will, you know, the appetite to continue defending Kyiv and Ukraine, will that diminish if the focus from Western nations is elsewhere? And I think this is a really real fear from Zelenskyy, as you said, not just because Russia can also make take some hay out of the disruption to the oil supply, but also because when focus is put elsewhere, that is a perfect time for other strongmen, leaders with expansionist agendas to try and make some gains. So you can see why Zelenskyy would be very concerned.
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Emma Nelson
Okay, let's move on to an article in the Guardian asking the question. We're three months in now since Australia decided to ban the use of social media to children, teenagers under 16. No one's quite worked out whether it works yet.
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Zoe Grunewelt
Yeah, the, the, the, the, the title is has it been a success? And as you I've just suggested, the answer is we don't know because it hasn't been long enough. So the, the initial figures show that 4.7 million accounts were removed under the ban. And this includes things like tick tock, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and Twitch. But there is going to be an evaluation of the ban. It's going to last two years run by the E Safety commissioner. It's going to look at schools, it's going to look at kids, families, it's Going to do some surveying. What they've seen at the moment is that there has been some evidence, obviously, that young people have come off social media. The President Albanese said that he was the Prime Minister. Sorry. Albanese said he saw more children outside over Christmas, which was quite interesting. But when you talk to kids, I mean, they're finding ways around it, which was always what people were.
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Emma Nelson
Children.
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Zoe Grunewelt
Yes, precisely. And they're tech savvy. More importantly, they're growing up on it.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. Excellent article in the Guardian where there's some sort of exquisitely elegant young people all saying circumventing the social media ban was so much easier than we thought we would be. They're all hooking up on LinkedIn. Brilliant idea. Okay. Finally, the Times. If you're a devil worshiper, for all of the devil worshipers out there listening to Monocle Radio, obviously, thank you for your time and your devotion. But by all accounts, there are images and AI is. Is something that the. Are some things that the devil worshipers are really going to town with.
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Zoe Grunewelt
Yes. So if you are a devil worshiper listening to monocor radio and you're using artificial intelligence, the exorcists are onto you. They know what you're doing. So there is an exorcism conference with many speakers, and apparently they're going to put AI sort of at front of center of their concern. They say that AI is already being used to generate images of children involved in satanic rituals. They're worried about these groups using AI to communicate with each other online and bypass usual forms of surveillance. But I think more broadly, this is an article about how the Church is regarding AI and it talks about. Pope Leo has been quite vocal in warning that AI is a risk. It's robbing people of their privacy, their jobs. And of course, he wanted to be named after Pope Leo, who fought for workers rights because he believes that AI could strip workers of their dignity and worries that extremely rich people who are investing in artificial intelligence are totally ignoring the value of human beings and of humanity. So there is a slightly silly element to this, but actually, more broadly, clearly, the Church are becoming more and more concerned about AI too.
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Emma Nelson
Well, yes, I mean, let's. Let's explore both elements. First and foremost, you said there's going to be a thing in Rome, there's going to be an exorcism course in May. Speakers who are booked to address the audience at the May event. Don't say we're not helpful to you Monocle Radio listeners. Further, Fortunato di nota a Sicilian priest who fights Satanists. We also have another speaker, Beatrice Orgolini, who's an academic, will talk about how occult groups in Italy are using AI to generate the symbols they use in their rights. It is believed that there are 263 Occult groups in Italy. I wonder who's keeping sort of a tally of this. Yeah, but also it had a, the, the, the Vatican had a conference on AA AI last week. I'm absolutely fascinated by the agenda being set by the Vatican when they sit down, I don't know, you know, first of January going. Right. What do we want to talk about this year? What, what, what's, what's getting you, you know, what's getting your, your interest?
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Zoe Grunewelt
Yeah, and I do want to make a pitch. You know, I'm a freelance journalist if anyone wants to commission me to go to the AI Exorcism Conference to do a big write up. Hey, that sounds amazing, right?
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Emma Nelson
Absolutely.
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Zoe Grunewelt
Who knows what they'll say?
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Emma Nelson
But it is an important thing about that. And the Pope has raised a really, really good point here in the middle of all this silliness because the pictures in the Times are very fun. The Pope has said that he now wants to renew the battle as AI threatens to strip workers of their dignity. And this idea of the creation of a sort of a new society when the ultra rich are able to invest in AI and ignore the value of human beings and of humanity. There's a really gentle beauty. Beauty to that.
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Zoe Grunewelt
Oh, absolutely. And I think it is, you know, this is a Pope that has been particularly progressive and has been trying to kind of anchor the conversations that often get taken away by the rich Silicon Valley billionaires or, you know, the questions about how much responsibility we have for each other. He's trying to ground it in those kind of progressive values again. And obviously workers rights has been a big part of that throughout history. So it's nice that the Pope's on the side of the people who don't want AI to run riot.
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Emma Nelson
Zoe Grunevelt, Westminster editor at the lead. And if you are wanting to hire Zoe to do the AI Satanism conference, she's available for bookings.
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Zoe Grunewelt
I'll do it for free.
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Emma Nelson
She'll do it for. She'll do it for free, everybody. Never say that you're listening to the Globalist. Thank you, Zoe. A quick look now at some of the other stories we're following today. The international price of oil and of gas have risen again as concerns grow that supplies could be affected by the conflict in Iran yesterday. Brent crude briefly surpassed $85 a barrel for the first time since July 2024. Myanmar's junta says it's to ration the use of private cars as part of fears over the supply of fuel. Under a new even odd licensing scheme, even numbered plates will only be allowed to drive on even dates and odd license plates on odd numbered. And prosecutors in Cuba have charged six people with terrorism in connection with an incident last week aboard a speedboat. Four Cuban nationals were killed. Six others were wounded as they entered Cuban waters and opened fire on a border guard vessel. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. Six months after a youth led uprising led to the fall of its government, Nepal holds its first major elections. Nearly 19 million voters in the landlord locked Himalayan nation have registered to cast their ballots. So what kind of test of democracy are we just about to see? Well, Dinesh Kafla is an academic and journalist in Nepal. He writes a regular column on politics and culture for the Kathmandu Post. And he joins me now from Pokhara which is about 200 km west of Kathmandu where he's traveling to cover the election. A very good afternoon to you, Dinesh. Thank you for joining us.
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Dinesh Kafla
Thank you.
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Emma Nelson
Ema, just explain to us what is happening. Pokhara. In Pokhara. Now why have you been taken down there?
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Dinesh Kafla
Yeah, I have come for two reasons. First is to cover elections but also to cast my vote because I belong here. So and this is interesting this time. Earlier I used to be in Karandu during the elections to cover the elections. But this time I came to Pokha because it is a high stick election and it's a shame not to go and cast vote at home even if you are doing your job. So there is this euphoria about the elections where everyone is going home. Kathmandu is emptied right now because it's a city of migrants. So everyone seems to have gone home. The government has recorded that almost 1 million people have gone home to cast their votes. So everyone is back in their hometowns to cast their votes. And that's why I'm here apart from doing my job here.
- [34:36]
Emma Nelson
And describe you mentioned there's a feeling of euphoria. What is bringing this about?
- [34:43]
Dinesh Kafla
This is basically a euphoria of change. Almost 1 million new voters are there, especially the Gen Z who have registered the first time. So everyone is excited about bringing change. So the entire narrative about the election is a narrative of change this time and that's why the euphoria.
- [35:03]
Emma Nelson
So just explain to us this huge change that came about. It started off six months ago where young People took to the streets furious at what they believed to be a government that was corrupt, was not on their side. And they managed to enact very profound change in Nepal, didn't they?
- [35:20]
Dinesh Kafla
Right, right.
- [35:21]
Emma Nelson
They did explain to us a little bit about what happened next.
- [35:27]
Dinesh Kafla
Yeah. After that we had a new government headed by a former chief justice. And the government has done a pretty good job of organizing the elections, although it has not worked very well in terms of punishing the culprits of the September 8 and 9 events. So there is also some kind of a disappointment that one of the commissions that, that was supposed to bring out the, the basically the names of the culprits, it didn't do its job properly. But then the government has also played safe because obviously some of the major political parties leaders will, they will be implicated. The commission's report. So it seems that the government does not want to disturb the elections. So the fear of elections not happening has been dispelled now that we're in the election mood. So, yeah, it's a bittersweet experience. But then the entire country is now ready to go into elections and elect a new government. And that's why, why it's kind of positive. Although there have been some negative sides.
- [36:40]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. I mean, there are. Nepal is a country where obviously the voice of young people can enact profound change. So when we look into the elections, are there young names on the ballot paper?
- [36:56]
Dinesh Kafla
Yeah, there are so many young people who have, who are concerned, contesting the elections. This time almost 30% of the new candidate. The candidates are new and young, under the age of 40. And so the entire election is about bringing in changes. And also one of the interesting things that's happening here is that the young people who were never understood to be interested in elections or politics, they are now very much interested in politics and participating in politics. And they're also trying to convince the older generation that they should vote for the new. And so I was talking to my dad this morning. He's 87 years old. He has voted for just a single party his entire life. And this time he is planning to change his vote. And that's the new things. That's the euphoria of things that I was talking about. My mother is also, she has also decided the same. So everybody seems to be talking about bringing in new in new people, whether it's from the established political parties themselves or the new ones, especially the new ones seem to have a better advantage here because the entire idea of change is bringing in new people.
- [38:14]
Emma Nelson
Dinesh Kafla thank you so much for joining us. On the line from your hometown of Pokhara, that was Dinesh Kafla, academic and journalist based in Nepal. You're listening to the Globalist live on Monocle Radio. Now recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered debate far beyond the Middle East. In Taiwan, the killing of Iran's supreme leader has sparked discussion about security risks. Let's hear the reaction from Taiwan to the conflict. I'm joined now by Brian Heyer, the founding editor of New Bloom magazine.
- [38:45]
Renard Mansour
Good afternoon, thanks for having me.
- [38:47]
Emma Nelson
The issue of what is happening in the Middle east can sometimes feel like a very, very long way away from various parts of the world where you are included. How much is what's happening in Iran touching life in Taiwan?
- [39:01]
Renard Mansour
Yeah, I think it's perceived as the latest blow up in the Middle east, but it has wide ranging impacts, particularly regarding perception of US power, whether with this or the seizure of the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January shows the US is in fact able to kill or kidnap world leaders. That's how far military production goes. So fears are that China could do that to Taiwan. But questions are if this show of military might by the US would deter China.
- [39:30]
Emma Nelson
And does what is happening in Iran and what has happened in Venezuela as you mentioned, actually make the Taiwanese feel safer?
- [39:40]
Renard Mansour
That's a paradox. I think that from some particularly more pro independence leaning parts of the political spectrum that is of the kind case. And so this is depicted actually in a rather positive light showing again how powerful the US is. It's framed as a reciprocal action, in fact that for example Iran had hostilities for the US Hence eventually the US was finally pushed to do this. And then talk is that this was slap in the face to China because Iran is perceived as closer to China.
- [40:07]
Emma Nelson
And what questions is this now asked about what the United States would do were China to to actually do any mount any sort of large scale military operation against Taiwan. Is there a sense that actually the United States would ride to the rescue? Because taking on Venezuela is one thing. Taking on Iran we have seen has caused widespread complications right across the Middle East. But to try to take on China, that is something completely different.
- [40:35]
Renard Mansour
Absolutely, as you say. And so actually I am slightly worried because I think that may be the wrong takeaway that people have from this. So I think there are those that takes us as reassuring but the US would not able to engage in such accident regarding China. It's very different economy of scale between again Venezuela, Iran and the US and China. And so I think there is that concern. But this is often what the general public will read international relations as this through this very narrow lens of the tension with China or how this impacts Taiwan, China relationship or the US when it goes into another situation geopolitically. I think people don't always perceive how this is not always seen as reassuring by the rest of the world.
- [41:17]
Emma Nelson
And indeed when Taiwan is actually assessing its own military capability and its own approach to defense and it has and indeed military cooperation with countries like Israel, how have the events in Iran actually made Taiwan reassess what it does does itself?
- [41:36]
Renard Mansour
So it is very interesting because Taiwan is very quick to align itself with the US and Israel regarding this, saying that Iran's actions against other countries are a form of aggression, donating 100,000 USD for example, to Israel for medical aid. And so Taiwan has been very quick to insert itself that's an ally of the US and Israel here. I think this is again continuing the pattern of banking on US power. Historically, the the US has always been Taiwan's security guarantor from the threat of Chinese invasion.
- [42:05]
Emma Nelson
Brian Heyer, the founding editor of New Bloom magazine, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Taiwan.
- [42:15]
UBS Narrator
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- [42:51]
Emma Nelson
Now let's have a look at the latest news from the world of television. To tell us more, I'm joined now by Scott Brown, TV critic and broadcaster. A very good morning. Good morning to you. Scott. Welcome back.
- [43:01]
Scott Brown
Morning.
- [43:01]
Emma Nelson
Very good morning to you. Let's talk about the Paramount Warner Brothers deal. Last week Netflix decided that it no longer wanted to play. It said that it couldn't make any money out of the deal. Now Netflix has actually decided to issue a bit of a warning saying that the Paramount Warner Brothers deal will lead to job losses. Talk us through it. Yeah.
- [43:24]
Scott Brown
So Netflix co chief executive Greg Peters says that he is nervous about potential job losses following the Skydance deal. Of course, Warner Brothers discovery has been very much in the air in terms of its future over the course of the last few months. And now Paramount Skydance, who also owns cbs, have now sort of taken in after having a really quite eye watering offer of more than 111 billion. So I think Netflix are now doing essentially a PR tour, essentially just saying that, you know, the reasons why they didn't go ahead with the deal, they just didn't think it was financially sustainable. But also highlighting the, the implications that it will mean for Hollywood and stating that that there will be possible job losses potentially, you know, at least initially.6 billion in in cuts. I mean, I guess the cynic around might say, well, if Netflix were going to sweep in and purchase Warners, then what, you know, what difference would there have been? There would have been cuts anyway. I think it also adds to the fact that regardless of who was going to be the, the owner, I think there has been a lot of concern within Hollywood about whoever was going to own the company, how that would have implications in terms of the future of the Hollywood film industry. Of course, if Netflix were going to purchase it, I think people were concerned about the longevity and future of cinemas. So I guess, I guess there's a lot of question marks about, about this generally. I guess also question marks in regards to, you know, what that will mean for consumers. I mean, will they end up having to pay more? Because the significance of this deal, the amount of debt the company has had to take on purely just to make it through the door in terms of the financial deal, it's nothing like it has been in recent years. It's a considerable amount of money.
- [45:21]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. I mean, there are always questions during mergers and acquisitions, M and A, whether actually any money is made out of this, that stock prices do go up. But is Netflix the right organization to ask these questions right now?
- [45:36]
Scott Brown
Well, I mean, I think that's the big question. I think people would say, well, what difference would it be on the Netflix potentially? I think Netflix, it's interesting in terms of how they were going to be purchasing potentially a rival HBO in terms
- [45:49]
Zoe Grunewelt
of
- [45:51]
Scott Brown
where that would be heading. I think what is interesting is how what we've heard is that Paramount and HBO in the US are essentially going to be merged onto one app, as in the HBO Max app. However, HBO is going to be treated independently of that. I mean, it was going to be the case that if Netflix had purchased just Warners, then of course, you know, HBO Max will be launching in the UK relatively soon. And I think there are a lot of questions about the future of that if Netflix is essentially going to be its, its owner. Of course that's not the case anymore. But I think we are as we have been in recent years because of the threat of, you know, AI in terms of. There have been already a lot of existential concerns about job security, job future. And I think this consolidation within the Market, regardless of who the owner is going to be, is only going to exacerbate those concerns.
- [46:45]
Emma Nelson
It's that big balance, though, isn't it? Consolidation yet, allowing organizations to operate with independence. And we're seeing already the announcer, Paramount. Skydance wants to combine Paramount plus and HBO Max into one streaming service. Arguably simpler for people with remote controls trying to navigate their way through their television. But actually, what does this make do for what actually we're going to be watching?
- [47:07]
Renard Mansour
Watching?
- [47:08]
Scott Brown
Well, I, I think for HBO Max, I mean, it will have, you know, quite a lot of content on there. It will get boosted. I mean, content on HBO Max will include a lot of the back catalog of Warners. It will also include upcoming series such as Harry Potter. They've also got deals not in the US but in Europe with the Olympics as well. So the access to sports rights is, is absolutely huge. A link to. With Paramount, you've got, you know, all of the Tom Cruise movies. You've also got links to a lot of sort of upcoming sort of programs tied to CBS as well. But I think a concern is of, you know, we are way past the period of kind of streaming apps able to provide choice. I mean, they all hooked us in on a very small amount of money, very affordable. And I think there's now been quite a consolidation that to have access to the shows you like, you are going to have to pay for it. And I found it rather surprising that just in the last month, the UK sort of subscription service, satellite service sky, are now offering a deal to have access to all of these streaming apps, Netflix, Disney plus, Hulu and more, under one fee, essentially a cable cable package, which is back where we started 10 years ago.
- [48:29]
Emma Nelson
Finally, let's touch on the struggles that the BBC has. An organisation beset with its own problems perpetually, but it can't find a successor to the Director General.
- [48:40]
Scott Brown
Well, that's what's been reported fairly recently. I mean, it has been, of course, months now since we've had the announcement that Tim Davy, the current Director General, is standing down. And it's a crucial time for the BBC's future, of course, with the license fee negotiation coming up. You know, that essentially is the deal about how much the consumers viewing public will be having to pay for their license. So it's a critical time. Of course, the BBC has been going through a whole lot of scandals in relation to the BAFTA Film Awards fairly recently, and it seems to be, according to some reporting, that they are finding it hard to find a new person to take over the role just because I guess the challenges, the headwinds, the fact that you could end up dominating the front pages of newspapers can actually maybe create a career liability. So some names such as Alex Mahon, who recently ran Channel 4 along with Charlotte Moore, who used to be the head of TV at the BBC, they're not included in the overall shortlist they were tipped to be. There is some hype around Matt Britton, who is a former Google exec, but so far there doesn't really seem to be. You need to have somebody I find with British broadcasting experience and of course he has a tech background, so there's some skepticism there. So it's a real wait and see. It's well paid. But is it long lasting for them?
- [49:55]
Emma Nelson
Scott Brian, thank you as ever for joining us on Monacle Radio to give us all the updates from the world of television. We touch upon the world of luxury travel now because Black Tomato based between London and New York, truly goes the extra mile from chartering yachts through Antarctic water, booking helicopters and two secluded islands and much more. Their co founder is Tom Marchant and he's spoken to Fernando Augusta Pacheco about the Travel Trends in 2026 and what destinations are on the rise.
- [50:54]
Tom Marchant
The world is in a state of flux. Places, for multitudes of reasons, become popular and fade away. Some are like big external factors. It might be geopolitical. I mean, if we're looking at this year, places that are, I'm always loath to say emerging because I'm sure lots of your listeners will know these places. But I think places that we have a keen eye on, we do a lot into Central America, Panama particularly, just has the most incredible properties and experiences there. That combination of kind of both the Latin and Caribbean coasts in one place. We've been working in the area for a long time, but the quality of experience has really, really increased and improved and it's been fantastic last year and I still hope this year will continue to be A growing popular place is Greenland, which I know is very topical given what's discussed out there. But we, you know, Iceland, its near neighbor, has been, you know, cornerstone of our company since we started. I must have been there myself 20, 25 times. I almost feel Icelandic. And Greenland, you know, is this incredibly wild, raw and elemental place, but has it almost has like this sort of final frontier feel to it. And we've been working over there, developing experience with our partners for a long time. And last year, year we've been, well, for a number of years been taking people, but we've really seen that growing interest now, people are still keen to go. I'm not sure whether people are putting plans on hold. I very much hope they're not and I can't recommend that highly enough. Another area that I'm a huge fan of is the southern end of Chile. I say Chile because that's Chile for the Brits, Chile for the American audience. I'm a huge fan of South America. Growing up, I always wanted to explore Chile. I was just fascinated by the contrast between the Atacama and the north and then the wine regions in the center and then getting down into southern Patagonia. And down in the south, in the Southern Patagonia national park there is the most incredible area which has an explorer hotel just opened a couple of years ago. It was Doug Tompkins, the founder of North Face and Esprit. It was his lodge where he had been building out a conservation area to protect the indigenous flora and fauna and environment. And I've been down there and it's. It's like no other place in the world and slowly people are beginning to visit it, but it's like being dropped onto another planet. And Patagonia itself is great, but if you go up into Argentina, it might be there's a few more people around this place in the middle of nowhere. And if you seek isolation or freedom or just a proper sense of disconnection around a landscape that will blow your mind daily. That's a great place to look at.
- [53:19]
Renard Mansour
You mentioned isolation. I was looking at your website. Of course it's divided if you want something for family honeymoon, but there's the solo holidays as well. I'm fascinated by it because I think sometimes that's what people need in their lives as well.
- [53:33]
Emma Nelson
Right.
- [53:33]
Renard Mansour
I personally, I prefer to travel either in smaller groups or with a partner. Not with a big group of friends to be honest, but solo. I never actually done it.
- [53:42]
Tom Marchant
It's interesting. I like both quite often I think travel is a. Not all the time, but sometimes travel is the antidote to your day to day and, and you're looking, you know, if you travel like maybe you want to do something different but. And what we see quite often with solo travelers is you might be living a. An incredibly hectic work, social life at home and what that means is you rarely get time with your own thoughts. Now that might scare some people, but I just think time alone to think, to not be distracted both by connecting with other people. As much as I like the culture in place, I think you need to. Like I said, culture is non Negotiable, but you can still have that hitting eyes and isolation. And I think we see the solo travelers, people who want to take themselves away, be with their own thoughts, but also to then sometimes push themselves, you know, so you might be traveling solo, not in a wilderness, but in a new destination. And the sort of anticipation and the slight, you know, at times anxiety of what I'm have to push myself to do something, it brings parts of you out that perhaps you're not doing at home because you're very comfortable. So there's a lot of reasons to be said for it. And. And I always try and fit in a couple of trips a year where I just go on my own somewhere, because it makes you a bit braver if you're in a bustling place to go out and connect with people, but also to go to wildernesses like Iceland, particularly, where I'll go and might go hiking on my own. And just 48 hours of relative silence and your own thoughts, I think, is a pretty good tonic for the soul.
- [55:07]
Renard Mansour
What about your personal travel plan for the year? I mean, is there any place that you haven't visited that perhaps you would like to go this year? Yeah, I'm sure you visited many places already.
- [55:17]
Tom Marchant
It's always a tough one because I'm very fortunate in the position I'm in that part of what we do is to explore the world so we can introduce it to our clients. I think you probably sense from when I talk about Chile, one type of travel I love is the great expanses.
- [55:30]
Scott Brown
You like a winter holiday.
- [55:32]
Tom Marchant
Yeah, well, my mother's from Finland, so everyone thinks it's sort of in the roots. But we take a lot of people to Mongolia, but I've never been. And I was. I met someone recently whose family. Family are from a particular, very, very remote part of Mongolia, deep in the steppe and where there's this sacred valley that they only have access to. And you go up there and you spend days riding on horseback, you know, setting up camps. And it's quite. It's not often that I'm almost like blown away by hearing experience, because I'm around this the whole time. And it's a. It's a great position to be in. But to hear all that, quite often I'm like, okay, it sounds good maybe, but this has left me with my jaw on the floor. And every client we ever take out to Mongolia, whatever they're doing there, comes back with that. Wow. I didn't think I'd be moved as much as I was. The culture is so respectful, it's so unique. But the landscapes take your breath away. So I'm trying at the moment negotiating with business and family plans to see if I can get out into the Mongolian steppe.
- [56:30]
Emma Nelson
Tom Marchant there from Black Tomato. He was talking to Monocle's Fernanda Augusta Pacheco. And you can also read our interview with Tom on Monocle's travel annual the Escapist, which is out on now. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers, Carlotta Rebelo, Angelica Jopson and Rima Takahashi. Our researcher is Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager is Christy o' Grady with editing assistance by Lily Austin. After the headlines. There's more music on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London. I'll be back with the Globalist at the same time tomorrow. Join me for that if you can. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thank you very much for listening. Sam.
- [57:54]
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