The Globalist – Ukraine ‘Declaration of Intent’ Signed in Paris
Date: January 7, 2026
Host: Georgina Godwin (A)
Podcast: The Globalist by Monocle
Overview
This episode centers on the latest political and security developments regarding Ukraine, particularly the “declaration of intent” signed in Paris by Britain and France, outlining potential future military support for Ukraine, but only contingent on a ceasefire with Russia. The conversation examines the details, implications for European security, the shifting stance of the United States, and broader geopolitical tensions, including US ambitions in Greenland and Venezuela. The episode also covers major news from Southeast Asia, Germany, the Balkans, and features a discussion on authenticity in luxury hotels and the cultural backlash against “dry January” in France.
Main Segment: Ukraine's ‘Declaration of Intent’ (Begins ~[01:09])
1. What Happened in Paris?
Guest: Francis Collings (C), Foreign News Correspondent (BBC, AP, et al.)
Context: Led by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in the presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, 35 countries debated post-ceasefire security guarantees for Ukraine.
Key Insights:
- Britain and France signed a declaration of intent to send troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire, but not on a combat basis. Troops would provide support via military hubs and reinforcement.
- Ratification by respective national parliaments (UK, Germany) or legislative bodies (US Congress) is still required.
- US involvement is ambiguous, with Trump administration envoys offering guarantees described as "technology, not boots on the ground."
- The declaration’s importance is undermined by Washington’s shifting focus (now on Venezuela) and Trump's provocative comments about Greenland, raising questions about the reliability of US commitment to NATO and European security.
Quote:
"The cost. They did stress that troops are not going to be sent on a combat basis, but more or less being put into military hubs, also reinforcing Ukrainian armed forces... all, of course, dependent on a ceasefire with Russia."
— Francis Collings [04:17]
2. US Ambivalence and NATO’s Future
- Witkoff and Kushner’s presence instead of senior US officials signals uncertainty about US resolve.
- Europe grapples with the possibility of one day acting without US support, though leaders avoid stating this publicly.
Quote:
"You have people who obviously have a duty to their own country while also trying to maintain a good relationship with President Trump... it's almost a holding pattern. Yes, Ukraine has to be sorted out as soon as possible, but this White House may not be there for the long term."
— Francis Collings [06:43]
- Macron and Starmer actively court Trump to keep lines open, but EU self-reliance debates intensify. Macron revives calls for an autonomous European security force.
Quote:
"He [Macron] described NATO as brain dead a few years ago. It’s something which he is very keen on. I think he could see the way that things could be going.”
— Francis Collings [10:47]
3. Realistic Prospects and Russian Response
- Any Western troop presence is predicated on an unlikely ceasefire; Putin remains adamant against NATO troops on Ukrainian soil.
- Speculation on whether mounting Western pressure or economic squeeze on Russia could change the calculus.
Quote:
"The pressure that comes onto the Kremlin really depends on the White House. And as you know, the pressure from that direction seems to come and go a little bit with the wind."
— Francis Collings [11:42]
4. Side-plots: Greenland, Venezuela, “Grand Deal” Speculation
- Analysts and the media speculate over potential geopolitical trade-offs involving Greenland, Venezuela, and Russia, fueled by Trump’s unpredictable behavior and rhetoric.
Quote:
"Greenland really is a big concern unless he can be dissuaded from that. And you imagine there are plenty of back channels from people who get on well with him across Europe to try and dissuade him of that."
— Francis Collings [12:41]
Conclusion:
The declaration is tentatively positive for Ukraine, but its significance is clouded by ongoing fighting, distracted international players, and unresolved questions about NATO’s stability.
[14:55] Southeast Asia: Thailand-Cambodia Border Tensions
Guest: James Chambers (E), Monocle Asia Editor
- Brief truce tested when a Thai soldier is injured by Cambodian mortar fire; both sides de-escalate, calling it an accident.
- No signs of major escalation, but elections in Thailand raise stakes for politicians to appear tough on sovereignty.
- Underlying border dispute remains unresolved.
Quote:
"That the two armies have been chatting. They seem there's no interest in escalating this. I guess the only danger is that the politicians are now involved." — James Chambers [17:44]
[22:26] Newspaper Review: Europe’s New Instability
Guest: Terry Stiasteny (F), Political Journalist, Author
- Greenland: Politico speculates how Trump could acquire Greenland—starting with influence campaigns, possibly ending in military action.
- “If Trump wanted to take over, it could be like, five helicopters. He wouldn't need a lot of troops." [23:04]
- Venezuela: Tanker “Marinara,” linked to Venezuelan oil sanctions, is tracked by NATO and Russia.
- Whimsical: Trump allegedly provoked to act against Maduro partly due to “dance move plagiarism.”
- Severe winter weather disrupts travel across Europe; Schiphol Airport risks running out of de-icing fluid.
- Lego’s controversial plan to add sound/chip technology to bricks sparks concerns about stifling kids’ imagination.
[33:19] Berlin Blackout: Arson, Infrastructure & Security
Guest: Andrew Bulkeley (G), Co-founder, 20% Berlin Newsletter
- 100,000+ Berlin residents remain without power after coordinated arson against infrastructure.
- Responsibility claimed by the left-wing Volkan (Volcano) group to protest “rich people’s environmental damage.”
- Authorities not ruling out Russian hybrid tactics, but intelligence points to domestic extremists.
- Infrastructure vulnerabilities spark debate amid broader worries about Russian interference and politics.
Quote:
"Apparently one sort of left wing wacko with a lighter can take the power away from 100,000 people in a major European capital."
— Andrew Bulkeley [34:06]
[38:45] Balkan Update: Slovenia, Serbia-Bosnia, and Albanian Air Travel
Guest: Guy Delaunay (B), Balkans Correspondent
- Slovenia: First parliamentary term completion in 20 years; overshadowed by ski-jumping star Domin Preutz’s win at Four Hills.
- Serbia/Bosnia: Serbia pledges €200 million for an airport in closely Croatian Trebinye, seen as potential Dubrovnik rival.
- Albania: Ryanair aggressively expands in Tirana, confirming regional air travel boom.
[48:56] CEO Interview: Authenticity as the New Luxury
Guest: Benjamin Vouchot (D), CEO, Peninsula Hotels
- Distinguishes true luxury by authentic, heartfelt service rather than hardware or decor.
- Challenges of growing without diluting brand “magic.”
- “Authenticity is the new luxury... When you grow, you don't dilute the brand and you don't break the magic that has been created over almost 98 years now.” — Benjamin Vouchot [49:42]
- Retains and trains staff via passion, career opportunities, and a fun, non-pretentious work culture.
[54:53] French Winegrowers vs. Dry January
Guest: Angelica Jobson (H), Monocle Producer
- German alcohol prices second lowest in EU; only Italy cheaper.
- French winemakers push back on “dry January” with a campaign for moderation, not abstinence.
- French civic leaders frame abstaining as an “insult to French culture.”
- Trend of zero-alcohol drinks rises, but enthusiasm from hosts is limited:
"Honestly, what is the point?" — Georgina Godwin [58:34] - South Africa’s wine culture lightly discussed; “dry January” less entrenched.
Memorable Quotes & Moments
-
On the complexity and fragility of Western unity:
"You always at least knew where America stood. You know, we're not entirely sure now."
— Francis Collings [07:54] -
On European security identity:
"We may be looking at a new world order... where NATO could dissipate if something happens. If not Greenland, something else."
— Francis Collings [09:04] -
On LEGO going high-tech:
"Isn't the whole fun of Lego and of building something that's supposed to be about your imagination? ... Just because you can do something with technology doesn't mean you should."
— Terry Stiasteny [29:40] -
On weather and infrastructure:
"...the Dutch are having an absolute nightmare at the moment... There’s so much snow and ice at Schiphol... their supplier in Germany is running out."
— Terry Stiasteny [28:05]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [01:09] Start of main news rundown: Ukraine declaration, Paris meeting
- [04:17] Francis Collings outlines Paris declaration details
- [06:43] Discussion of Europe’s contingency plans without US support
- [10:47] Macron and European security force
- [14:55] Thailand-Cambodia border tensions
- [22:26] Newspaper review: Greenland, Venezuela, weather, Lego
- [33:19] Berlin blackout and infrastructure attack
- [38:45] Balkans update with Guy Delaunay
- [48:56] Peninsula Hotels CEO: luxury, authenticity, staff
- [54:53] French campaign vs. dry January
Language & Tone
- Conversational, analytical, occasionally humorous or wry, reflecting Monocle’s trademark blend of seriousness with wit.
- Host Georgina Godwin offers poised, occasionally playful guidance through complex topics.
Summary
A must-listen for those tracking the evolving geopolitical landscape in Europe: the episode places Ukraine’s future security at the crossroads of Western unity, US unpredictability, and global complexity, all while accentuating the extraordinary ways in which world politics, economics, and even lifestyle trends are deeply intertwined.