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The Globalist
US and Iran agree to conditional ceasefire as JD Vance visits Hungary to boost Viktor Orbán
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Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 8th April 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
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Hello,
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this is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, the US And Iran have agreed a conditional two week ceasefire, but the war is far from over. Despite his troubles abroad, Donald Trump has been endorsed by the voters of Georgia who chose his preferred candidate in the congressional runoff in yesterday. And his emissary, the vice president, J.D. vance, has been in Hungary trying to get a similar result there in the upcoming election with his very public support of the incumbent, Viktor Orban. We'll have analysis of all those developments. Then we'll cross to Warsaw where the President has vetoed a massive defense loan. We'll examine the implications, we'll flick through the newspaper front pages and then we'll bring you the results of the 2026 Democracy Index where no surprise, the US has slipped from 28th, 34th in the ranking. We'll take you to Hanoi where the Vietnamese Communist Party chief has been appointed state president.
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Plus, it's not about knowing the score only. It's not about waving your hands only. It's also a psychological thing.
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That's the Lebanese Polish conductor Basim Akiki, who's in London for his production of the Turn of the Screw at the Royal Opera House. And finally to our Zurich studio where we'll catch up with the latest travel news. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in the news. China's President Xi Jinping has called for a demand led overhaul of the country's service sector, pushing for reform, innovation and stronger domestic consumption to drive growth. North Korea has fired multiple short range ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast in a fresh show of force that further dims hopes of easing tensions with South Korea. And airlines are warning that even if Middle east shipping routes stabilize, jet fuel shortages could take months to ease due to damage and disruption to refining capacity. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now we begin in the Middle east where Iran and the US have agreed a conditional two week ceasefire during which shipping will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz. Washington had set a deadline for Tehran to open the strait with warnings of dire consequences if it refused. Well, I'm joined by Monocles Gulf correspondent Insamin Rashid in Dubai. Insi, what do we know about the terms of this Pakistan brokered ceasefire?
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Good morning, Georgina. So look, this was a tense and an intense night overnight where negotiations and discussions went up to the 11th hour. This is Pakistan essentially alongside Turkey and Egypt, mediating these talks between the US and Iran, trying to put together this peace proposal, this framework for this two week ceasefire. And it really went up to the wire and maybe even a phone call from China potentially meant that there was some flexibility from the Iranian side to accept this deal. So look, this is a two week ceasefire deal. It means that attacks right now between the US and Israel into Iran and Iran's retaliation will stop. And importantly for the world's economy, the Strait of Hormuz opens up. Iran, as I mentioned, said that it will pause these counterattacks, particularly into the Gulf states. This is after they had launched a volley of missiles and drones into the Gulf states last night. And then Benjamin Netanyahu came out and said that Israel also backs this pause, but clearly said that Lebanon is excluded. And then we go to Friday where there could be some potential talks between the US and Iran held in Islamabad. So this is where all the positive signs of this immediate ceasefire, this two week ceasefire comes into play. But I think let's be a little bit pragmatic here, Georgina, and you said it right at the top that this is no way an end to this war which has been going on for five and a half weeks now. And in fact, this is a huge capitulation from President Trump because Iran's 10 point plan, which the US says is a workable basis on which to negotiate and essentially what made President Trump call a ceasefire overnight. It's, it's basically all of Iran's maximalist demands. There are things on there which America and the Gulf states will no way agree to. For example, all of US bases leaving the region, that's just not going to happen. And on the point of the Strait of Hormuz, it may well be opening up. And obviously that is great news because oil prices have dropped as a result, I think around 13% this morning. But Iran does still have de facto control of that waterway. Yes, they may be letting ships through and there may also be many, many ships who are still scared to go through, but they will be profiting hugely from many of the vessels passing through. And within this two weeks, I think we have to look, Georgina as well is what's going to happen during these two weeks. Will Israel stick to the ceasefire? Pakistan are clear that Lebanon is involved in this ceasef discussion. Will military factions inside Iran stick to this ceasefire? We've seen time and time again that they don't necessarily all go through the same page and they can go off and do their own thing. And looking to Friday and within the next two weeks, will talks in Pakistan between the US And Iran go positively for a permanent end to this war?
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Nzi, thank you very much indeed. Insumin Rashid, our Gulf correspondent. Well, as that pressure builds internationally on Washington, it's being felt politically at home, too. The Trump backed candidate Clay Fuller is projected to have won the congressional runoff in the state of Georgia. And that, of course, became a test of Donald Trump's grip on the Republican base. The race follows the resignation of Marjorie Taylor Greene after a break with Trump and pitted his endorsed candidate against a Democratic former army brigadier general. And the question of Trump's influence doesn't stop there. His political allies are being tested abroad, too. Vice President J.D. vance is in Budapest openly backing Victor Otto Orban ahead of what could be the biggest test of his 16 years in power. Well, I'm joined now by H.J. mai, who's a Washington based reporter and a correspondent for Germany's TAS newspaper. And from Budapest by Lili Takas, who's a journalist at The Hungarian Independent Paper 444. Good morning to you both. H.J. staying with that pressure on Trump, what does Clay Fuller's win tell us about Trump's influence in Georgia and indeed over the rest of his party?
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Well, it really sends two messages. I mean, the fact that he endorsed Clay Fuller, who is winning this race, I think 99% of the results have been counted by now, shows that he still has a stronghold that especially in that region of Georgia, the Republican Party is very dominant. But it also shows that the grip maybe is not as strong as it used to be. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who as you mentioned, held this seat before she beat the Democratic candidate Sean Harris by close to 30 points during the last election. This is much closer. The way it looks right now is that Clay Fuller will win this race by about 12 percentage points. And so, you know, if that's an indication for his grip on the party, for his grip on, you know, how Republican voters think about what's going on at the moment in this country. I think that's a sign, you know, the president obviously will once again, like always make this into a huge victory for him because that's just how he operates. But I think it's a clear message that the grip, especially even those rural areas like, you know, north of Atlanta and Georgia, is not as strong as it used to be. And I think that's what this race has shown here.
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How far does that grip, that Trump influence travel beyond the U.S.
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well, I mean, it travels far and wide. I think, you know, Trump and especially, you know, under his administration and the people who have advised him in the past, I think, have made clear that they support right wing parties across Europe. You know, you have Germany's AfD. I think it was very famous during the last German election when Elon Musk appeared at an AFD event. And as you mentioned, you know, we have now the vice president pretty much publicly, you know, stomping for Viktor Orban in Hungary.
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Well, let's bring in Lilina, who's in Budapest. Lilly, what is J.D. vance doing there? Hello.
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Good morning. Yeah, just like you said, he's campaigning for the Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, for two days. And he is doing that quite openly. But to be honest, it isn't a surprise at all. Trump has endorsed Orban several times, very openly through social and other interviews as well. The government and Orban actually wanted Trump to come here to Budapest. They have been working on this for months. But instead of him, Rubio came a couple of weeks ago now Benz came. Yeah, they are indeed important figures internationally and in the American politics as well. However, they are not Trump and like the Hungarian government narrative, have been focusing almost exclusively on the very good personal relationships between OR and Trump himself. So not on Orban and the US Government or not on Orban or NJD Vance, but Orban and Trump. However, Trump didn't travel to Hungary. Vance is here. I mean, he called Trump yesterday when he participated in a campaign rally, basically. So we will see whether the government, I mean, I know that they are still communicating this as like a historical victory for Hungary, that we will see the effects on voters.
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H.J. orban needs Trump. But how important is Orban to Trump's wider political network? Why does this matter to the US
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I think that's a very good question. Why Viktor Orban has become such an important figure, not just for Trump, but for the wider conservative movement here. Hungary is now hosting its own CPAC event, which is very interesting. And I think that that shows how closely those Two kind of right wing conservative movements are aligned. I think Orban is definitely the closest and most important somewhat of an ally in Europe that Trump has at the moment. We've heard JD Vance rally against the EU yesterday during his speech talking about the bureaucrats in Brussels, which obviously is very interesting because Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General, Carol, will be here in Washington later this morning. And so there's this rift where you have the established Central European, the big economic powers of Europe who are at the moment having a hard time dealing with Trump and Trump dealing with Europe. And then you have Viktor Orban, who's clearly a big supporter of Vladimir Putin, who stands for some of the similar policies and politics that Trump endorses, you know, anti immigration, you know. And so the question why is Orban important for Trump? Is I think it's just one of his few remaining strongholds in Europe. And so I think that's why he's important to the Trump administration.
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So, Lilly, what we're seeing here is a setup where it's Maga versus Magyar. That's Peter Magyar, of course, the main opposition leader. Could Vance's visit actually be a help to Orban or might it backfire? Could, could this be a win for Maggie, not Maga?
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At this point? I'm not sure. We are just days ahead of the elections and the mood in Hungary has been shifting very visibly in the last couple of days. And by now I think it's very evident to everyone that the Fides and the government is focusing only on foreign policy related matters in their campaign. But the opposition, I mean, the party of Peter Magyar is focusing almost exclus exclusively on domestic problems. So there is a very visible division between the two campaigns as there is a very visible division within the Hungarian society as well. So I don't think that this trip of wends would help Orban to convince those who still don't know who to vote for on Sunday because just divisions are just too deep now.
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Yeah. And finally, H.J. i wonder what you make of the timing with Vance in Hungary when it's all kicking off in Iraq, Iran or at least while negotiations are at such a delicate stage.
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Yeah, I think the timing is interesting. I think, you know, that's, I think the reason that we have this war in Iran is the reason why Trump himself didn't show up in Hungary and sent his vice president. But you know, there are media reports out there that Wentz even was involved today, you know, in the negotiations, you know, and had a, an important part in all of it. So I think this is just to really support what I think Trump considers Orban almost like by now, a close friend. To support a friend, a leader that stands for similar politics as him, the second highest official in the country, is just a sign for that. But he clearly could not leave the country. I mean, this was the same reason why he canceled his trip to China to meet with President Xi. That has obviously been postponed and is now happening next month. But I think that's really the main reason why Trump didn't go and why Vance is there. And I think given that he even had a stake, JD Vance in those negotiations that led to the ceasefire, shows that just because he's in Budapest, he's in Hungary, doesn't mean he was out of the loop.
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H.J. mai, thank you very much indeed. H.J. is in Washington. Lily Takas also joined us from Budapest. This is the Globalist. Well, it's 8:15 in Warsaw, 7:15 here in London. Poland's president has vetoed legislation that would have unlocked tens of billions of euros in EU defence loans, setting up a direct clash with the Prime Minister, Donald Tusk's pro European government. The dispute goes to the heart of how Poland funds its military and how far it's willing to tie its security to Brussels. Well, I'm joined now by Alex Szczerbiak, who's author of the new book Political Parties in Post Communist Poland. Alex, many thanks for speaking to us. What was this money due to be spent on?
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Good morning. Yes, the money was supposed to boost up the Polish military in response to the threat that there is on Poland's eastern border as a result of a newly resurgent Russia and also part of an attempt to. To make Europe more independent of the United States. It was, as you say, supposed to be available at much cheaper interest rates, about 3 to 4% than would be available if the government funded it through domestic borrowing, which is one of the reasons why the Polish president was in such a difficult position. Most of the money the government said would be spent in Poland on polish firms, about 90% of it. And the Polish military, or at least the leading generals, were strongly in favour of it. So this is, as you say, a fundamental question about whether Poland should be arming itself militarily through the context of the EU and of strengthening European security, or, as Mr. Novrotsky, the Polish president, said when vetoing the bill, whether they should continue to look to the transatlantic links as the main source of Polish military security. One of his arguments against it is that most of the Money had to be spent on European, in other words German and French terms. Whereas the main source at the moment of where Poland is making its arms purchases is the United States and South Korea.
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So what's plan B? Can TUS get around this veto?
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Yes, he can. He doesn't. The legislation was to create a financial instrument to access those funds and most of those funds can be accessed without that financial instrument. There is a get around that the government can use. The problem is that it can't spend that money on non military expenditure. So for example, boosting up Poland's eastern border, it can't spend it on the security services, it can't spend it on infrastructure projects which would be useful for defence. So that's where the problem is. But really a lot of this is about politics. Although the government will be able to spend spend most of the money that it would have spent on the SAFE project, it's going to leverage the fact that the President vetoed this legislation because every time there is any expenditure on the military funded through the SAFE Defence Loans program, they're going to say, well, if the President had had this way this wouldn't be happening. So this is partly obviously about how Poland finances its military modernization, but it's also very much about politics and the struggle between a liberal centrist, very pro EU government, a right wing conservative, much more Eurosceptic president.
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And I wonder what this means for Ukraine because Poland's been one of its strongest supporters. How does this affect its ability to help Kyiv and indeed its own military readiness?
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Poland was one of the largest contributors to Ukraine's military efforts. It's been a key hub for the provision of military and also indeed of humanitarian and diplomatic aid to Ukraine that's involved actually transferring large elements of the Polish military to Ukraine to actually help them directly in the fight against Russia. So an important element here is whether Poland can kind of replenish and renew its military assets in order to compensate for that and indeed to strengthen its military. I mean Poland is committed to spending 5% of GDP be on military expenditure. And obviously it's really important to Ukraine that it has a strong Polish ally on its western border that can continue to offer it that military, diplomatic and humanitarian support. So part of the government's argument is obviously that for Ukraine, Poland needs to be a strong military ally on NATO's eastern flank. The Polish president of course has all kinds of reasons for not supporting this and indeed has come up with his own alternative means of accessing the Polish Central Bank's reserves, which he says is A much cheaper and less risky alternative to the EU defence loans.
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Alex, thank you very much indeed. That's Alex Szczerbiak, who's author of a new book, Political Parties in Post Communist Poland. Now still to come on the programme, we assess the state of democracy in the world and why it's not as bad as you might think. This is the Globalist. Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights. Deliver day and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts, UBS banking is our craft. It's 721 here at Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin, this is the Globalist and we'll continue now with today's newspapers. So Joining me is Monocle's senior news editor, Chris Chermack. Chris, what a 24 hours. And now we know that there is a cease, a conditional ceasefire for two weeks. We don't actually know whether that will be stuck to so many questions to be asked about that. But what the newspapers are reporting on, many of them is why this happened at all, why were we in this position. And the New York Times has a great piece inside the Iran decision. Why? What did they say?
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Well, I mean, what a roller coaster it has been, first of all, not just the last 24 hours, but the last month or so, hasn't it? So this story from the New York Times by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, who also have a book coming out called Regime Change Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump, are kind of releasing some of the details of their reporting from that. And they go back to the beginning of this. And there's a few interesting points that are worth highlighting from this. One is that essentially this started with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He made a pitch in the Situation Room of the White House describing the possibilities of this, that Iran was ripe for regime change. And then it was up to sort of Donald Trump and his advisors to digest that information and look at what they could do. Some of the other interesting aspects of this is one, US intelligence officials did not agree with a lot of Netanyahu's assessments, particularly on this idea that regime change could actually happen. Netanyahu suggested that you could get rid of the Iranian regime completely and bring in a regime from the outside that was described as farcical by the CIA Director, for example, Donald Trump nevertheless went ahead with this. He seemed to be determined. He was buying into a lot of what Benjamin Netanyahu was saying. The other interesting aspect of this report is that there wasn't really much pushback, except for J.D. vance. Now, that's not maybe that surprising given what we know. Nonetheless, the fact that you hear in this reporting that JD Vance was a vocal, open critic of the war in Iran in those few weeks before the decision was made I think is quite interesting. It was something he said forcefully. He didn't think that it would be successful. And he also predicted what would happen to, to Donald Trump's coalition, the MAGA coalition, as a result of this. Nobody else really, from the sounds of it, Marco Rubio, the likes of others within the administration voice the kind of criticism that JD Vance did. Everyone else kind of fell into line trusting Donald Trump's gut on this. Just one final point because it'll get to our next story as well. It sounds like Donald Trump and others did not expect Iran to be able to close the Strait of Hormuz. That's also what I found interesting in this reporting. That was something that by taking out Iran's military, they would not be successful in keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed.
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Yeah, very interesting. And also just a note on the reporting on this because, of course, Maggie Haverman was very much in the public eye in 2022 because her book then Confidence, the Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America involved allegations that she withheld significant information at the time which should have come out as news reports. She withheld it for the book. And there are questions that she and her co author are doing this. Once again, this explosive book coming out, it's being leaked drip by Dr. Through the New York Times. I mean, wheels within wheels.
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I mean, what can you say? Isn't this kind of par for the course? Frankly, journalists want to sell books. At the end of the day, they withhold information in order to get those sales up a little bit. We all need to make some money every now and then.
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Well, yes, and it looks like people are making more money out of oil. Tell us about the market reactions.
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Yeah, so the market reactions are obviously interesting here. I looked at particularly a story from Nikkei Asia, because I think Asia has been in the focus of this. Also, of course, the fact that given the timing of this ceasefire, the Asian markets are the ones that open first. So you've seen Japan's Nikkei Index rose more than 5% as a result of this ceasefire ruling in the States, Dow Jones sort of not open yet. US Markets. But Dow futures, the sort of predictors of the markets are also up more than 10%. Brent crude oil prices have tumbled closer to $90 a barrel. They're back below that magic $100 barrel a mark. What I also find interesting about this, Georgina, is you see a little in that difference how much Asian stocks in particular surged, just how worried Asia has been about this. Right. Asia has been affected more than others. They rely more on the Gulf for oil than other countries do, than Western Europe does, than the United States does. So they have been really in the thick of this. So you're seeing a sort of relief from Asia even more than you will in say, Europe and the U.S. of course, we don't know what, as you said at the outset, we don't know what's going to happen in two weeks. But for now at least there's some significant relief in the markets.
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Absolutely right. Let's go to Germany now because Gen Z. What age is Gen Z anyway? Young people, the youth.
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Young people. This study we're going to be talking about is looking at people aged 14 to 29.
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Ah, okay. Now we know that's Gen Z. Right. So they all want to leave Germany or one in five do at any rate.
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So one in five of those surveyed in a new report on the youth in Germany, this is a kind of annual thing. They do say they have concrete plans, 21% have concrete plans to leave Germany. Around 40% say they've thought about it. And it's interesting, there's, there's a number of reasons for this, for this rise in the number of people wanting to leave Germany. A lot of it has to do with the economy. Germany's economy is not doing that well. At the same time, rent prices are increasing. So a lot of this has to do with home affordability as well. And then the other interesting aspect I've found from this is the increasing, as with so many other places in the west but also in Germany, the increasing polarization and this is a concern in Germany in both directions. They also surveyed actually Gen Z this, the younger people in Germany for their political leanings. 25% supported the left, which is sort of more far left party in Germany, not in the middle. And 20% supported the far right afd the alternative for Germany. It shows how high support is for the extremes. And arguably what you're seeing is those in the middle perhaps are the ones that are considering leaving. They're not happy with the polarization, the more extreme rhetoric that you're seeing in Germany, they're the ones that are thinking of going elsewhere.
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How interesting. Now we're all humming Pink Floyd's Dark side of the Moon and that is very good reason for that. And it's one of the things that sort of in these dark, dark times make us just I suppose, think about the positive sides of human.
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I, I think that's right. And I was looking at. There's so many stories on this. I, I saw it first on npr. Basically, NASA has released the first pictures from the Artemis 2 astronauts as they made their way around the moon. So you're seeing for the first time these pictures from the other side. And what's amazing when you look at these pictures and full disclosure, I'm not normally that much of a space guy, I'm gonna say, but perhaps it is a little bit of what you say this positive that we want at the moment. But also just these pictures are. And yes, this is not the first time we've been to the moon, but to see it from the other side, there was apparently they calculate about a 54 minute solar eclipse from the moon. So the moon blocking out the sun. And what's amazing about that, you look at these pictures of the solar eclipse and apparently what is so exciting for scientists as well is that you can't normally see the sun that easily because it is so bright. So being able to see these pictures where the sun was blocked out allows them to see things around the sun, other stars, things they wouldn't have necessarily seen if not for this opportunity they had by going around the moon and taking a picture from the other side. It's just really incredible. Pictures you can find at other places as well. Also one that's just incredible of this boundary between lunar day and night, as they put it, where half the moon is in complete darkness and half the moon is shown in this picture. It's just some incredible stuff to look at. It does make you feel like you're back in kind of, I guess, the night. This is what the 1960s, I'm guessing, feel like for me, sort of that first moon. I was never there for that first moon landing. But nonetheless, seeing these, you know, pictures is, is, is quite something.
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And you know, in these turbulent times, it sort of puts everything into perspective, doesn't it?
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I mean, there's a big old world out there.
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Chris, thank you very much indeed. That's Chris Chermac and you're with the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on. China's President Xi Jinping is calling for a stronger demand led service economy backed by reform and new technology. The aim is to push Chinese services up the value chain and build more competitive domestic brands as growth in traditional sectors slows. North Korea has fired a series of short range ballistic missiles from its east coast in its latest weapons test. South Korea has condemned the launches as a provocation and a violation of UN Resolution solutions underlining how fragile any hopes of easing tensions remain. And the global aviation industry is warning that jet fuel supplies could stay tight even if key shipping routes reopen. Disruptions to refining in the Middle east mean airlines may face higher costs and pressure on operations for months to come. This is THE globalist. Stay tuned. It is 8:31 in Oslo, 731 here in London. So from what you've heard on the programme so far, you might think we're witnessing the death of democracy worldwide. But the 2026 democracy index which has just been released, would suggest otherwise. The index says that nearly three quarters of countries surveyed have improved or held steady. The United States, however, is a marked exception. Well, I'm joined now by Catherine Stewart, who's head of research at economist Impact, to talk us through the report. Catherine, good morning to you. Thanks for joining us. Can you explain the overall findings?
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H
Absolutely. So over the past almost a decade, we have seen what we're calling a recession in democracy. So continued falls in democracy scores around the world world. And this year, looking at the period between kind of calendar year January 2025 and December 31, 2025, we've actually started to see a reversal in that trend. And there's a couple of driving factors there that are particularly interesting. One is a real increase in political participation around the world. So for instance, in Canada in the election in April 2025 that solidified Mark Carney as prime minister, you saw the highest participation rate since 1993 when one of the issues that Canadians were voting on was Quebec secession. And in the developing economies, especially ones with large Gen Z populations, you're seeing this demand for change in democratic processes. And although those democratic processes haven't necessarily followed, that increase in political participation and engagement has really shifted how countries are doing for the most part, around the world in democracy.
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A
Let's look at the black sheep, the US what does the index say about Trump's America?
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H
What does the index say about Trump's America? I think obviously Trump's America is less democratic than an America we saw a year ago. So there's an erosion of government functioning which you saw with the Doge cuts and politically motivated firings and resignations across the civil service. You've seen a use of the presidential pardon for the rioters that protested in the Jan. 6 event at the U.S. capitol. That has happened on a scale that's unprecedented for presidential pardons. And those have driven down the US's score by about 0.2 points on a scale of 1 to 10. Now I think people might think that you would have a much further fall, but the democratic guardrails. So America's court system really have been holding a lot of that line to preserve democracy. And one of the big things we'll be watching in this year as we look forward to the next iteration of the democracy Index is whether or not that hold continues to prevent real erosion of democracy in the us. But, but we certainly are cautious about the outlook in the us.
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A
And what are the results for Western Europe?
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H
So Western Europe had a small increase in in scores. That isn't really surprising. The Western European economies are all full or flawed democracies. France, for instance, fluctuates on the cusp between a full democracy and a flawed democracy, which is how we class classify our different levels of democracy within the index. And they've moved back into that full democracy bucket. But I think the real trajectory was driven by a slight improvement in public confidence in political parties which came in the wake of economic stabilization following an ongoing cost of living crisis and some of the unwinding Covid restrictions before that. So those are still unwanted rolling. But one of the things we're looking at in Western Europe is that it continues to struggle with challenges like housing shortages, the still elevated cost of living, and growing pressure for fiscal consolidation which have fueled voter dissatisfaction. And obviously there's this far right and populist party trend that continue to make gains in many countries, which suggest voter discontent with traditional mainstream parties and concerns about immigration. So we'll be looking at at some of the big elections in for instance, the UK over the next year to understand what that means for transient democracy moving forward.
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A
And how is Latin America doing?
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H
Well, Latin America has seen a major score improvement in 2025 for the first time in a decade. So about 20, about 13 of the 24 countries in the region saw their scores improve. Perhaps the most interesting improve movement was in Bolivia, where after almost 20 years of pretty populist rule, they saw a free election in 2025. That that really changed the pathway in Bolivia. But I think one of the big scories for Latin America is obviously US engagement and meddling in the country. So you saw the, the events in Venezuela where Trump stormed in and removed the then president. Then he has turned his eyes to Cuba as well. So I don't think that will necessarily result in democratic progress in those countries, but one thing it might do is consolidate the countries of Latin America, the populace of Latin America, to push back against Trump in the same way that we saw in Western Europe and in Canada and, and that did solidify a slightly more democratic and engaged population.
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A
Katherine, thank you for that cheering news. That's Catherine Stewart, head of research at Economist Impact. This is Monocle Radio. It's 1638 in Adelaide, 838 in Zurich. Now yesterday, Vietnam's national assembly unanimously elected Communist Party General Secretary Tho Lam as state president. Well, this creates a system in which one person holds both the top party and state roles, marking a significant shift away from the country's traditional model of collective leadership. Well, I'm joined now by Nguyen Kak Jang, who is a visiting fellow of the Vietnam Studies programs at ICS Yusuf Ishak Institute. How unusual is it for Vietnam to have one leader holding both of those roles?
- [39:24]
I
I think it's a very pivotal moment in Vietnamese politics because the last time that we have seen one person holding the top positions of both the party and the government in Vietnam was in during the Vietnam War under Ho Chi Minh leadership. And even then Ho Chi Minh was the party chairman, not the party general secretary, who basically the one that, you know, governs the Vietnamese Communist Party. So basically I think it's the watershed moment in Vietnamese politics that we with a lot of consequences and implications for how Vietnam will move forward in the coming time. Obviously if you look at other communist regimes, Cuba, China and North Korea, it is not so unusual. But for Vietnam, with a very long history of dealership, this very, very big
- [40:18]
A
moment, what led then to the break from the normal system? Why did this happen?
- [40:24]
I
I think the collective leadership arrangement has been working quite well for Vietnam last four decades of its normal reform and market reform policies initiated in the 1996. But in the past few years, Vietnam, Vietnamese politics has been, you know, a little bit chaotic because of the decades long anti corruption campaign. And there is some capitalized sentiment in Vietnam which says that now the Vietnamese economic growth is a little bit slow and it really wants to have stronger mandate for one person to take the lead and to push further the agenda of reform and development. And Thor Lem is the one who gather enough support to have a new system of responsibility when you have more power. But with power comes responsibility. So he is the One who is chosen to potentially foster Vietnamese economic growth and to reach the high income status by 2045 as party and visions.
- [41:26]
A
So tell us a little bit more about him and what we can expect for the direction of the Communist Party and indeed the country under his leadership and how much power he actually has.
- [41:38]
I
I think Tholem is potentially the most powerful leader in Vietnam for decades, let's say for half a century since the end of the Vietnam War. And he has, you know, the power that he amass is not only on former titles. So they're very strong of networks of associates and aides and people who have very close connection with him in very key positions of the Vietnamese political system. So his power is extremely strong. And second, it's very interesting to know that Solomon is a little bit different from Chinese President Xi Jinping in the way that he is a more pragmatic leader who really wants to promote market reform policies in Vietnam, who care more about national interests instead of ideological alignment. So for that, I think it would be very suitable for us to compare Taalong with other developmental authoritarian leaders in the history of East Asia, like the former South Korean President Park Chung Hee, for example, in the way that he might envision Vietnam toward a more developmental state with more market oriented policies, instead of closing Vietnam to a more circle of ideological states like North Korea or China.
- [43:02]
A
So you've still got institutions like the Politburo in place though how much real constraints are there on his power?
- [43:11]
I
Basically, it's not the death of Vietnam's collective leadership arrangement because Vietnam still remains a four pillar system with the promotion of a Vice General Secretary, the permanent member of the Secretariat. So in the way, Tolam is the first among equal because he combines the presidency and the General Secretary position. But he's still bound within a system of Politburo with 19 members and the wider parliament type of the party, which is the Central committee comprising of 180. So in a way, whatever policies that he wants to promote, he still has to get through the Politburo and the Central Committee voting. But at the same time, obviously, like I mentioned, he also has built very strong network of personnel close to him, so it's easier for him to push forward whatever reforms or policies he envisions of Vietnam.
- [44:11]
A
Thank you very much indeed. That was Nguyen Kat Jang and this is the Globalist. I'm on Radio. Iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human experiments, expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft. Considered one of the most outstanding young opera and symphony conductors working today. Holder of Lebanese and Polish citizenship, Bassem Akiki regularly cooperates with many Polish and foreign opera houses. In London for the Turn of the Screw at the Royal Opera House, he joined Monocle's Tom Webb to discuss his career inspirations and Benjamin Britten's chilling opera.
- [45:25]
C
I was born in Lebanon. I'm completely Lebanese from my mom and my dad. They are both from the same village. Even my father's name is Samir and my mother's name is Samira, so it's very obvious here. But then I studied philosophy in Poland, in Lebanon, so in Beirut. And then I started music. I started late music. Then after, you know, I was so much engaged in that, I thought, like, I really have to do it seriously and to do it seriously. Especially conducting. That wasn't the idea at the moment. So I used to play oboe, piano and singing. But oboe is my main instrument, so you have to come to Europe. So that was the idea, like to go to Europe. But my piano parents are. I have no background from music in the family, so they were very not happy, let's say at the beginning, like my mother's side, they are in medicine, my father's side, they are all in engineering stuff and so on. And then there was the music director of the National Philharmony in Beirut. He was Polish. And so I was speaking to him, come to Poland. And the first obvious thing for a Lebanese to come to France and to Paris. And that was the idea. So I said, okay, I would go to Poland for a year and we will see. And that how, how it happened. So I came to Krakow, an amazing academy of music, an amazing city for students, and started studies there as a choir, conducting and oboe. But then my oboe teacher told me that you have to go to conducting. And so that's how it happened. And then I moved to Wroclaw where I got my first job as an assistant conductor in the opera house. And this is why I stayed in Poland and life continued. And then I got the Polish citizenship. Now I feel Polish, I speak Polish fluently and I love this country.
- [47:13]
E
You talk about your hand moving and you do that for two hours, of course. But how much of the job is literally conducting there on stage? What percentage of your role as a conductor is that hand movement in front of the orchestra? How much work do you get to that point?
- [47:29]
C
No, that's a very tricky question because it's like, what is conducting? And I remember reading a review, an interview with Georges, a great French conductor, he said, either you're born as a conductor or not. So of course you can learn the technique and it's. Everybody can learn the technique. But in fact, it's not about knowing the score only. It's not about waving your hands only. It's also a psychological thing with the, With. With dealing with the whole team. In, in the, in the case of the Turn of the Screw is a chamber opera, which is even more difficult than. Than a big opera, because before this production I had in the National Opera in war, so the fr. One of the largest scale operas written in the history of music. So. And then you come to the 13 ensemble of. Of. Of instrumentalists in the pit. So it's a big shock, but in fact the quality and the way of. Of producing the sound, but also also of leading the dramaturgy. So a conductor is like. It's not one thing only just know your score and wave your hands and be with a good technique, which is very important also, you know, to have the technique, to be understandable. It's. It's an international thing, whether you're in London, in Tokyo or in Beirut. You conduct, the orchestra will know what you want. And this is the thing we learn, of course. But there is another thing also where, wherever you are. Also for me, it's important to give the other artists around their thoughts and their musicality and fragility to be shown. Because even one conductor, with many orchestras, the same piece will sound differently. Because we are not working with an instrument, we're working with human beings.
- [49:20]
G
Now that's interesting because you're doing a Benjamin Britten score.
- [49:25]
E
You're an object oboe player. Now I can already hear the sounds of the oboe in the score. Is there anything from your experience as an oboe player that you've brought to this piece?
- [49:37]
C
The oboe player who played with us, Chris, is much, much, much better than me. So I think also when I'm standing at the podium, I try to take the role of the conductor, not the role of the instrument. Of course, I have to know what are the difficulties of the part. And I know it's very difficult because I played this part myself long time ago and I know because it's also changing to English horn, the Cor Anglais and so on. But the thing is, it's like giving the space, especially in this chamber music, where we have, in this case an amazing band who's in the pit. They are all. Everyone is a soloist and they are an ensemble. They listen to each other, they react to the sound, to the colors, to the way. And then it's just leading the dramaturgy. And then when I'm speaking like that, you think, what is the conductor for in this situation? But no, it's about discussing. It's just getting a common way of interpreting the piece. Especially also there are other elements, not only the singers on the. The stage, but the staging itself. As the Turn of the Screw is a very special opera, which gives you many ways of interpretation, many ways. And if like we have to get all on the same way to really be as accurate as possible, to give the best informations for the, for the public who's coming to see it. And we know that it's a ghost story. But in our production, it was the first, first thing that we talked about with the stage director and with the set designer, Natalie and Michael, that we're not telling a ghost story here. It's all really about the psychology of the children. So it makes also, it has to have an influence of the way you're playing it in the, in the bit. And it's not like we're playing one piece and on stage happening something else.
- [51:42]
G
Well, let's quickly get into the set design. It's an absolute, absolutely magnificent piece of
- [51:48]
E
art by Michael Levine.
- [51:49]
G
How have you worked with him with the score to make all those elements marry up?
- [51:55]
C
We started in fact, like more than one. No, it was one. One year, one year and a half before. Before the opening night. And this production was. Has a little bit of perturbance because it was supposed to be much before. And then the COVID came and we had, they had the problems. I wasn't supposed to be the conductor by. At this place, so it was a little bit ready in a way and when they come back to this. So I, I entered as a, as a conductor, had many, many talks with them online live. We had a lot of casting for the singers. So the, the way of choosing the singers were by casting and we had all to agree about the quality of the voice, the quality of the acting and so on. That's why I, I think it's really one of the best castings that I have ever, ever had in a product in an opera production.
- [52:46]
A
That was the conductor, Bassim Akiki, with Monocle's Tom Webb. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now, finally on the show, a roundup of travel news. And I'm joined from our Zurich studio by Noel Salmi, who's a child travel, culture and sustainability writer. Noel, good morning to you.
- [53:09]
J
Good morning, Georgina.
- [53:11]
A
So there is a trend for very short vacations and I have to say I can identify. I just got back from a micro trip to Greece. Tell me why people are jumping on this trend and what a short vacation actually means. Are we talking hours or days?
- [53:26]
J
Well, gosh, I hope we're not talking hours yet. But yes, whether you call them, Mike, micro trips or microcations, these are vacations that can be as short as a day, typically two to three days. A publication I used to write for had reached out and said we want stories on short trips like Paris, from New York to Paris and back in a day. But I think that is really very extreme. But people are traveling from the US even across across the Atlantic to Europe or from Europe to other places for just two days. And one of the reasons they're doing it in the US is they just don't have that much paid time off. But also it just gives people an opportunity to see more places in a year. And nowadays everyone is so stressed with work, it seems that coming back to an overflowing email inbox is really daunting. So. So people would like to just take a shorter vacation so they can get back to it. You know, what distinguishes these from sort of weekend getaways is that it's a little more purposeful. You are really trying to see something in a place rather than just relax on a beach somewhere for a few days.
- [54:45]
A
So there's another trend that's also emerging. We're seeing this in the New York Times and it's about isolation, but really only if you're very, very rich.
- [54:55]
J
Yes, that's right. So the author, the New York Times reporter, starts on this topic by describing her trip on Air France's first class transatlantic surface called La Premier. And she basically sees no regular people at all during her experience. And Mercedes limo takes her from her hotel to a special entrance that she'll De Gaulle. She's at a bespoke lounge where she can order three course Alain Ducasse design meal or even book a spa treatment. Then a Porsche Cayenne takes her to the plane. While she waits, someone takes her passport to get processed. And of course on the plane she's in a 2 meter long bed space area. And the only person she sees, besides her fellow famous actors, fellow residents in first class, is the captain who comes out to speak with her. Sure, there's an absence of friction there, which is very desirable in the sense of you don't have to wait in lines or anything, but you're also just completely separated from the hoi polloi as you will. And that's basically something that the uber rich are seeking. More and more is just absolutely being cut off from the rest of the world. It's not enough now to have a private villa with a private butler and a private private chef on an island resort and maybe a private space in the resort spa. They want their own private spa. And this, this is even moving over into shopping. For example, Brunello Cuccinelli now has Casa Cucinelli, which is an invitation only shopping emporium that you can visit. And it's happening in hotels. High end hotels are having like top floors that are exclusively exclusive.
- [56:43]
A
Well, speaking about private islands, there's a chance that you could actually win one off Sweden. Tell us more about that.
- [56:50]
J
Yes, so Sweden, which has 267,000 plus islands, is giving away five islands to Lucky winners of a contest. This is an initiative of Visit Sweden, the Swedish Tourism board. I think that 267,000 plus number is a little inflated when you actually look at them. Some of these are just rocky outcrops. And in fact some of these islands which are appropriately named with very Swedish names like Tuvholmen and Skirtbadan are in fact just rocky outcrops. If you're lucky, two of them do have nice little, little pieces of sort of forested nooks on them and you only get them for a year. But the real draw here is that you get two free tickets to Visit Sweden. And to enter this contest you have to basically enter a video saying why you would like to have your own island in Sweden. Billionaires are exempt from this. They do not get to apply. But the wacky the better for that video.
- [57:58]
A
It sounds absolutely extraordinary. I'd love to do that. Wouldn't that be fun? You get an ownership certificate, but do you get guaranteed privacy? Is it, is it isolated as you would be if you were very rich?
- [58:10]
J
Well, the fact is islands have no running water or anything. So the, the Visit Sweden website helpfully points out where you can actually go to a restaurant or where you can sleep and how you can get to the this island. So it's really more just a very clever marketing ploy and it brings us
- [58:28]
A
full circle back to our first story. Because if you're going to go and visit your island, you might just want to make it a tiny micro trip.
- [58:34]
J
Exactly, exactly. Make it a micro trip. Take advantage of the free flights to Sweden and, and go find some some other beautiful place to to visit Noel Salmi in Zurich.
- [58:45]
A
Thank you for joining us. That's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers and Angelica Jopson, Tom Webb, Chris Chermack and Desiree Bandley, our researcher Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager, Elliot Greenfield with editing assistance from Lily Austin. After the headlines. There's more music on the way and the briefing will be live at midday in London. The Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technology, technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.