US increases pressure on Cuba and Iran mulls over a new peace proposal

Summary

The Globalist Podcast Summary

Episode: US increases pressure on Cuba and Iran mulls over a new peace proposal
Date: May 22, 2026
Host: Emma Nelson (Monocle)
Duration: ≈60 minutes

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Overview

This episode unpacks escalating US actions towards possible regime change in Cuba amid regional tensions and military maneuvers. It also examines Iran's tentative steps toward a new peace deal under American pressure, analyzes the implications of shifting US military commitments in Europe, spotlights tech and business headlines, and provides a lively review of news from Istanbul. The show maintains Monocle’s characteristically incisive yet conversational analysis of global current affairs.

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Key Segments & Insights

1. Cuba on the Brink: US Pressure and the Prospect of Regime Change

Guests: Andrew Thompson (Latin America specialist & Latin News contributor)
Timestamps: 03:17–11:59

• US Escalation: An American carrier arrives in the Caribbean as former Cuban President Raul Castro is indicted and arrested; Cuba is facing acute fuel shortages due to a US blockade.
• Regime Change Possibility:
  • Andrew Thompson (03:21): “It’s certainly on the US agenda… What the US may be trying to do is repeat what it did in Venezuela: remove some regime elements and do a deal with others... But Cuba will be harder to bend than Venezuela.”
• Expected Cuban Response:
  • Resistance to US intervention is likely—whether military or otherwise—complicated by Cuba’s longstanding militarist rhetoric and enduring loyalty to the Castro regime among the army.
• Role of Marco Rubio:
  • Rubio, now US Secretary of State and of Cuban heritage, frames Cuba as a national security threat and is driven partly by ambitions for a future presidential bid.
  • Andrew Thompson (08:11): “He is more interested in a democratic opening than Donald Trump, who… wants to demonstrate US military power but isn’t particularly committed to regime change in a democratic direction.”
• Potential for Negotiation:
  • There is a chance for a deal involving humanitarian aid and a “nod in the direction” of political and economic reforms (e.g., opening up to foreign investment, reducing the military’s economic control).
• Regional and Global Reactions:
  • Thompson (09:34): “Washington is interested in a renewed Monroe Doctrine… Governments across Latin America will be concerned about US interventionism, deeply worried about further American moves in the region.”
  • China uses US actions to position itself as a “non-dominant” partner, gaining soft power while the US flexes military might.

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2. Iran’s Peace Proposal and US Strategy

Guest: Scott Lucas (Adjunct Professor, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin)
Timestamps: 12:48–18:00

• US-Iran-Israel Dynamics:
  • Recent reports of a combative Trump–Netanyahu call; Israel’s capacity for military action against Iran is diminished, shifting focus to Lebanon.
• Trump’s Negotiating Tactics:
  • The US faces limited options—either commit ground troops or negotiate, with domestic economic pressures (notably higher gasoline prices) affecting policy.
  • Lucas (14:11): “You either had to put in ground troops... or you have to go to the negotiating table.”
• Iran’s Peace Proposal Details:
  • A 14-point Iranian proposal centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ceasefire and sanctions relief.
  • Disputes persist over timing of moves on Iran’s nuclear program, with the US seeking an extended moratorium (20 years), while Iran offers 5.
  • Key exclusions: Iran’s missile program and regional alliances (e.g., Hezbollah) are not on the table.
  • Lucas (17:05): “What Americans care about first and foremost is gasoline prices... They have gone up 50% since the start of the war.”
• Conclusion:
  • The leverage from the Hormuz closure forces the US to reconsider its maximalist stance; negotiations are essential as the US seeks to “save face” after a failure to force regime surrender.

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3. European Security: US Troops and Uncertainty in Poland

Guest: Mateusz Mazzini (Writer-at-Large, Gazeta Wyborcza; Lecturer, Collegium Civitas, Warsaw)
Timestamps: 31:03–37:57

• US Military Movements:
  • The US delays deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland, sparking confusion, then Trump announces 5,000 more will be sent—though it’s unclear which troops, when, or how net presence changes.
  • Mazzini (31:06): “No one really seems to know… We got a cryptic message from Trump… We're entering an era of heavily personalized geopolitics.”
• Implications for European Security:
  • Feels less like NATO strategy, more contingent on Trump’s personal relationships; allies feel increasingly uncertain about American commitments.
  • Mazzini (32:33): “Even the deterrence capacity inside NATO isn’t really working properly… Everyone in the alliance should be worried because no one’s really safe.”
  • American troops in Poland are mostly on rotation and function as deterrence, not a real defense force.
• Broader Consequences:
  • The region is questioning future reliance on US security guarantees amid instability and shifting priorities.

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4. Global News Review – Report from Istanbul

Guest: Carlota Rebelo (Senior Foreign Correspondent)
Timestamps: 19:11–28:47

• Democratic Party Post-Mortem:
  • DNC’s “autopsy report” for the 2024 US election loss blames Biden’s late withdrawal and Democratic disconnect from key voter groups.
  • Rebelo (20:27): “It’s quite damning… the party’s persistent inability or unwillingness to listen to all voters.”
• Rubio’s Comments Riling Portugal:
  • US strikes on Iran used the key US airbase in the Portuguese Azores; Rubio’s boast about Portugal’s compliance sparks a diplomatic spat.
  • Portuguese government denies, US doubles down—leading to embarrassing questions domestically in Portugal.
• Estee Lauder–Puig Merger Collapse:
  • A much-anticipated $40bn beauty powerhouse fails to materialize, casting uncertainty over both companies’ strategies.
• “Hot Priest” Calendar Scandal:
  • A Vatican novelty revelation: the model on the “hot priest” calendar isn’t an actual priest—“Holy deception.”

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5. Business & Tech Headlines

Guest: Massimo Marioni (Former Senior Editor, Fortune)
Timestamps: 46:11–53:06

• Meta:
  • Announces 8,000 layoffs despite record profits—part of pivot to focus resources on AI, a common trend among tech giants.
  • Marioni (46:42): “Layoffs are a part of that strategy—even though Meta is enormously profitable, thousands are losing their jobs as money is funneled into AI projects.”
• Nvidia:
  • Posts massive earnings but stock underwhelms; investors begin to question how much more the AI-driven growth can continue. Large, established firms (like Apple) mean earnings “beats” may no longer impress.
• IPO Frenzy:
  • SpaceX files paperwork to go public, OpenAI and Anthropic expected to follow; Nasdaq index rules changes mean their stocks could trigger wild buying frenzies due to automatic fund allocations.
  • Marioni (52:42): “It could be like no other index event in recent history—exciting but also unpredictable and unsettling.”

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6. SpaceX Starship Test Failure

Guest: Tira Schubert (Fellow, Royal Astronomical Society)
Timestamps: 53:06–58:17

• Starship Test Delayed:
  • Launch scrubbed due to a malfunctioning hydraulic pin; next attempt planned for the same day.
  • Starship is key to NASA’s lunar goals and Elon Musk’s Mars ambitions—33 Raptor engines for greater payloads, with planned in-space refueling.
  • Schubert (55:54): “It’s 33 engines that start up simultaneously and give it a lot more power and thrust… They can carry heavier things such as astronauts plus cargo to not only the Moon but Mars.”
• Significance:
  • Failures are expected as part of the iterative “fail better” model; cost reductions by SpaceX already significant for launching new tech.

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7. Notable Quotes and Moments

• Andrew Thompson (04:21): “Cuba says it will fight… Whether this is real or just bluster is not that clear.”
• Scott Lucas (13:10): “One US official said Netanyahu's hair was on fire after the conversation.”
• Mateusz Mazzini (31:06): “We're entering an era of personalized or heavily personalized geopolitics.”
• Carlota Rebelo (28:01): “The very famous hot priest calendar… it has now emerged that the hot priest… is not a priest at all. Holy deception.”
• Massimo Marioni (46:42): “Meta is enormously profitable, yet thousands of people are losing their jobs…”
• Tira Schubert (54:26): “Yes, it was a bad hydraulic pin day, but it will have another go tonight.”

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8. News Satire and “What We Learned”

Host: Andrew Muller
Timestamps: 38:22–45:27

• Satirical review of the week:
  • Guinness World Record for biggest guacamole in Mexico
  • US Vice President J.D. Vance’s colorful metaphors on rooting out DC corruption:
    • Vance (39:29): “Fighting fraud in Washington is a little bit like fishing in a barrel with a nuclear weapon.”
  • Trump’s $1.776 billion fund for January 6th rioters, pardons, and ongoing criminal controversies.

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Conclusion

This episode of The Globalist navigates a turbulent international stage as the US pushes for regime change in Cuba, weighs its options in Iran—caught between military overreach and economic realities—and unsettles European allies with unpredictable defense commitments. Through deep dives and sharp interviews, the show captures the anxieties and machinations underpinning policy shifts across the Americas, Middle East, and Europe, while offering characteristically crisp commentary on business, technology, and culture.

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For more: Listen to the full episode here.

Transcript

[UBS Narrator]

Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.

[Emma Nelson]

You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 22 May 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up in the next 60 minutes as an American aircraft carrier arrives in the Caribbean on the same day Raul Castro is arrested, we'll ask, is Cuba on the verge of regime change? Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, Donald Trump says he'll play the waiting game. Could Iran be ready to agree to peace? Then?

[J.D. Vance]

We're not talking about pulling every single American troop out of Europe. We're talking about shifting some resources around in a way that maximizes American security.

[Emma Nelson]

The US Might be pushing the pause button on deploying troops to Poland. How clear a sign is it of Washington's long term plans to pivot away from supporting Europe?

[Andrew Muller]

And we learned that if there was a case of corruption to be found in the nation's capital, Vance was on it like hillbilly elegy on any discerning list of the 21st century's stupidest books.

[Emma Nelson]

Andrew Muller will tell us what we learned this week. Plus, the papers come from Istanbul. That's all coming up on THE Globalist live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in today's news. There have been protests in Greenland following the opening of a larger US Diplomatic hub there. Estee Lauder Companies and Puige have ended merger talks without a deal. And police on the Italian volcanic island of Stromboli have stopped a film production party attended by the rock star Mick Jagger because music is banned there on a Wednesday. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, how close is Cuba to regime change at the hands of the United States? A first clue came in the form of a criminal indictment indictment being issued against the former president Raul Castro that could offer Washington the chance to swoop in and arrest him. The second clue came in the form of a US Aircraft carrier and its escort warships entering the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. Add to that the blockade which has led to Cuba running out of fuel. And you have a powerful indication of America's approach to Havana. Well, I'm joined now by Andrew Thompson, Latin America specialist and Latin News contributor. Very good morning to you, Andrew.

[Andrew Thompson]

Good morning.

[Emma Nelson]

So how close are we looking at regime change?

[Andrew Thompson]

I think it's certainly on the US Agenda. Whether it will happen and at what speed it will happen is not that clear. In some ways, what the US May be trying to do is repeat what it did in Venezuela. You remove some elements of the regime and you do a deal with the others who set up a new transitional government. However, if that's what they're trying, it's going to be very difficult because it is likely that the army remains more loyal to the Castro government than the Venezuelan generals were loyal to Nicolas Maduro. So Cuba is a much more difficult country to bend to. The US Will.

[Emma Nelson]

So what, therefore, would any potential reaction be to any move by the United States to enact regime change? What would be the reaction from Cuba itself?

[Andrew Thompson]

Well, Cuba says it will fight. It has decades of militaristic rhetoric, and it's basically saying that if the US Were to invade or take military action, Cuba will respond in a similar military way. Whether this is actually real or just bluster is not that clear. Certainly there would be resistance of different types, and that would be something that makes it difficult for the US to effectively run Cuba in the way they are now effectively running Venezuela.

[Emma Nelson]

Explain to us, therefore, why Marco Rubio has been talking as the US Secretary of State, talking about Cuba being a national security threat to the United States and that the likelihood of a peaceful agreement is not high. He gave a very, very powerful speech in the last eight or nine hours.

[Andrew Thompson]

Yes, I think, you know, Rubio is of Cuban descent and is very committed to, if you like, a democratic opening in Cuba. And he is quite rightly, I think, saying, acknowledging this is a difficult task and that Cuba is well armed and ideologically committed to oppose the United States. So some kind of a clash seems probable. And Rubio will, you know, he's making clear how difficult it is to make change. It is possible that because of the vast economic crisis inside Cuba and the complete lack of fuel with long 12 hour blackouts, it is possible that the Cuban government, or part of the Cuban government will eventually say, let's do a deal. You give us humanitarian assistance and we make a nod in the direction of the political and economic reforms that you are demanding.

[Emma Nelson]

What kind of deal could that look like? I mean, you touched on the elements that could be dealt with. But let's Explore that a little bit further. What exactly must Cuba do to stop the Americans continuing the pressure that they're exerting on it?

[Andrew Thompson]

Well, I think basically they would have to agree to some kind of democratic opening, not necessarily a very rapid one, but one where opposition groups are acknowledged and allowed to be active at some level. They would also have to agree, which is something that they may actually be ready to do. They would have to agree on economic reforms, and that would basically mean attracting foreign investment and opening up the Cuban economy, politics being what it is. Perhaps an unwritten demand from the US Side would be that Cuba would need to reduce the power of a holding company called Gaisa, which is basically the military economic arm, if you like, inside Cuba, which is largely controlled by Raul Castro's family. So that would be an important political concession.

[Emma Nelson]

One thing that seems to be very much the focus is Marco Rubio himself, the US Secretary of State. He seems to have taken this project on as a very particular person, personal mission in many ways, and I use that term very loosely. But what is it about Marco Rubio and his determination to focus so strongly on Cuba?

[Andrew Thompson]

Well, it's to do with his heritage. He is a Cuban American. And I think it's also to do with his potential presidential bid in the next US Presidential elections. So he basically needs to show in the way he handles Cuba that he can do a deal. He can get a democratic opening in the country that would be incredibly powerful for Cuban American voters in Florida and other parts of the United States. And it would be part of his, if you like, his CV in a future presidential race. An interesting point here is that he is more interested in a democratic opening than Donald Trump, who is not that interested. Trump wants to, if you like, demonstrate US Military power, but he's not particularly committed to regime change in a democratic direction, if you know what I mean.

[Emma Nelson]

The reaction from the region has been what? Because we have to look at how. What the wider implications for the region could be. What message is this now sending to Latin America about Washington's intentions?

[Andrew Thompson]

I think it's sending the message that Washington is interested in a renewed version of the Monroe Doctrine, which is basically, America controls Latin America seen as a backdrop, backyard. So I think the other point perhaps is that governments across Latin America will be concerned about US Interventionism. They're not particularly committed to defending Cuba. There've been a lot of differences over many decades with the Cuban government. But they are deeply concerned that an unrestrained Trump administration will not only have taken Venezuela, so to speak, but will be flexing its muscles in other parts of the region, for example, by intervening in elections. There are elections due in Colombia and Brazil and Peru. And there is a fear that the US Will basically say intervene in the running of those elections to support its favored candidates.

[Emma Nelson]

And when you have something like the Chinese accusing the US of using coercion threats against its ally, it creates a new global dynamic, doesn't it, given the fact that China is often accused of using coercion and threats against its neighbors. But when you have the United States, as you just said, that taking a unilateral approach to basically the, well, what looks like most a lot of the world, largest parts of the world, how does that then have knock on effect globally?

[Andrew Thompson]

I think short of globally, just starting with Latin America, I think Trump's interventionism is in effect helping China because China is posing as an economic partner who will not seek domination, if you know what I mean. They're saying we have no interest to intervene in your domestic politics, but here are some projects we will be happy to finance in ports and in other strategic areas. So if you like, if there is a charm offensive, these latest developments put China in a better position than it would be.

[Emma Nelson]

Andrew Thompson, Latin America specialist and Latin news contributor, thank you so much for joining us. On Monocle Radio. It's what, 11:11 in Islamabad, 7:11am here in London. Now peace, or rather a tentative attempt at it, may be about to visit Iran as Donald Trump says he'll wait a couple of days for Iran's response to the latest peace proposal. The conflict with Iran seems stable, however, compared with the claim made by the US President that the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, will do what Mr. Trump wants him to do. I'm joined now by Scott Lucas, adjunct professor at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin, and a regular voice here on Monocle Radio. A very good morning to you, Scott.

[Scott Lucas]

Very good morning, Emma.

[Emma Nelson]

So let's begin. Let's, let's cover off this section to do with Israel straight away. This news emerged in the last 12 to 14 hours saying Donald Trump said he had a very fractious phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu and that effectively Benjamin Netanyahu will do Donald Trump's bidding when it comes to Iran. What do we, what do we believe? Do we believe that to be true?

[Scott Lucas]

Both US And Israeli officials have, have leaked to the media that it was a very, very quote, difficult call. Earlier this week, one US Official said Netanyahu's hair was on fire after the conversation. I think what this effectively means is we're no longer talking about a US Israel war on Iran per se. The Israelis are not able to act militarily as they did with that whole series of targeted assassinations early in the war. If the American are holding back from further military action, however, I have to add that that does not stop Israel's freedom of action in Lebanon right now, where you're looking at Israel, even as it doesn't get regime change in Iran, still going to pursue probably a long term occupation of the south of Lebanon.

[Emma Nelson]

When it comes to Iran, though, and this preoccupation that Donald Trump has this idea that he's now giving Iran time to think about the peace deal, that suggests that. What does that actually suggest about Trump's intentions?

[Scott Lucas]

It suggests that we need to go beyond Donald Trump's statements, as always, and look at the reality of what is happening here. That is for weeks that the United States really had only two options because air power alone can't bring about regime surrender. You either had to put in ground troops, which the administration considered but backed away from, or you have to go to the negotiating table. That's compounded by the fact that of the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, which is behind the Pakistani mediators is calling for an end to this war and by the domestic pressure on Trump. And the reality here is Trump's trying to pretend he's really in control of these negotiations. The basis for these Talks is a 14 point Iranian proposal. And that Iranian proposal starts off with, well, if you want to open up the Strait of Hormuz, that arrangement will have to be in connection with a long term ceasefire. And then we'll talk about our nuclear program.

[Emma Nelson]

Do we have any more details about what is in fact in this deal that has made both sides sit down and take a serious look?

[Scott Lucas]

Yeah, the Iranians proposed a two stage approach that I've just described, which is, you're right, straight or foremost linked to a long term ceasefire and the lifting of American sanctions on Iran. The Americans would rather have the nuclear program as part of the first stage before the ceasefire is agreed. So there's haggling over that. In terms of what would happen with the nuclear program. Contrary to Trump's statement that the Iranian civilian nuclear program will end permanently, the debate is really over the extent of a moratorium. In the first talks in Pakistan earlier this month, The Americans said 20 years. The Iranians said they'll suspend for five. But beyond that, you also have the issues that have not made it to the table that really show that Iran has pushed back. There's no mention in the proposal of Iran's ballistic missile program which the Americans had tried to limit. And there's no mention of Iran's ties with other groups in the Middle east such as Lebanon's Hezbollah. The reality here is, Emma, that the Americans, if talks proceed on this proposal, are having to retreat on what they had put to the Iranians on February 26, two days before the war. And that's because of the effect of this closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It has given the Iranians leverage and

[Emma Nelson]

this closure of the Strait of Hormuz is effectively what is pushing the pressure, as you mentioned, gives Iran the leverage and it also places the United States economically in a very parlor state. Because if the Strait of Hormuz still poses such huge problems for the transport of essential goods across the world, the political ramifications for the United States are war.

[Scott Lucas]

It puts the global economy at stake. But what Americans care about first and foremost is gasoline prices and those have gone up 50% since the start of the war. There's been risk to air travel. There's been increased knock on effects on for example food prices, the prices of other goods because of this basically tightening energy market. And that's not going to go away. You know, the Trump got into office in 2024 on two issues. One was energy and immigration. He messed up immigration with the failed invasion of Minnesota in January. Now he's heading towards November's midterms showing absolutely no progress on the economy. That pressure, I think it means that that the Americans will have to come back to the table. But how do they save face? How do they save face with what effect has been a failed attempt to get regime surrender?

[Emma Nelson]

Scott Lucas, adjunct professor at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. Thank you so much for joining us. As ever on Monocor radio. Still to come on today's Globalist it is sounding like we are not going

[Massimo Marioni]

to be able to clear this issue in time today. So we are going to be standing down from a launch.

[Emma Nelson]

Oh dear. SpaceX's Starship, the world's most powerful rocket should be in the sky right now. It's not. We'll talk about what went wrong. This is the globalist.

[UBS Narrator]

Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and Curated by over 200 globally connected locally active analysts, UBS banking is our craft.

[Emma Nelson]

Let's head now to Istanbul for today's paper review. The time there is what, 9:18am joining us is Monocle's senior foreign correspondent, Carlota Rebelo. Good morning, Carlota.

[Carlota Rebelo]

Good morning, Emma.

[Emma Nelson]

Now you're going to have to tell me why you're in Istanbul.

[Carlota Rebelo]

I am in Istanbul for a fleeting five hours on the way back from the World Urban Forum in Baku. As you know, throughout the week I've been checking in and sending some reports and it was this amazing event organized by UN Habitat, bringing nearly 42,000 participants to Azerbaijan. So it's been great to be on this side of the world this week.

[Emma Nelson]

Exactly. Now we need to concentrate a little bit more on how you're managing to do a paper review from a what is essentially an airport, is that correct?

[Carlota Rebelo]

Yes. But Emma, you know, that is the wonderful part of airports that you can buy any press that you want and flick through the papers and find a little co working business lounge to do some reading and then check back in and let you know everything that's making the news today.

[Emma Nelson]

Excellent. We have an enormous amount of admiration for you, Carlotta. Right. So as you spread the papers out across the airport and try not to sort of have too many people trundle past you with their cat, with their, with their trolleys, tell us what you've spotted.

[Carlota Rebelo]

Well, the key story coming up overnight across all the American press is of course, this election autopsy, if we can call it that, of the 2024 election and what went wrong. You might remember that a while ago the Democratic National Committee said they had commissioned this report that wanted to examine what went wrong for Democrats that led to the defeat of the then Vice President Kamala Harris. And the report is, you know, is interest because what it basically hints at is that Biden is partially to blame for Kamala's defeat. The fact that it took him so long to decide that he was going to withdraw from the race, but also then leaving Kamala Harris with very little time, under 200 days, as you might recall, to run her campaign. Now, it is quite damning, I must say, because one of the lines in the report is when in the part that I was trying to examine why the Democrats lost Democrat voters to Donald Trump, it says that it's due to the party's persistent inability or unwillingness to listen to all voters. So you can see that the tone is quite serious and very much invites for deep and serious reflection within the party.

[Emma Nelson]

It's an interesting line to take, isn't it? Because when a political party facing defeat has to examine what went wrong, it must, as is the case in this report, be completely transparent and honest about the failures. Yet at the same time, it cannot offer too much meat for Donald Trump to feast upon.

[Carlota Rebelo]

Absolutely. And I think that point that you just raised of the transparency is a really important one because voters and supporters of the Democratic Party wanted this report precisely to show that they are taking a good look at themselves and looking within to try to understand how they can reset ahead of the midterms. But Emma, what you might be surprised to hear is that the DNC chair, Ken Martin has acknowledged the report's shortcomings that have been highlighted, but at the same time also kind of says that it does not meet his standards. So at the same time, the DNC is rejecting the report that itself had commissioned, which is not a great look when you're trying to invite this big national moment of self reflection.

[Emma Nelson]

Okay, let's move on to Marco Rubio. He's been saying an awful lot of comments about Cuba in the last 24 hours, but there's also been some other issues which have left the Portuguese rather embarrassed.

[Carlota Rebelo]

Yes, the Portuguese government is properly red faced over some comments from Marco Rubio. So a quick background on this story. When the US first started its strikes on Iran, the US used an air base that it has in the Azores Archipelago in Portugal that it has had for many, many decades to refuel some of the planes. And that's a traditional and normal procedure as they cross the Atlantic. That's why that air base is very strategic for the US military. At the time, there was a lot of contention in Portugal where, you know, the opposition parties were saying that by allowing the use of the air base for these strikes, Portugal was essentially siding with Iran. Now, the Prime Minister came out and the Minister of Defense came out to say, no, no, we made it very clear that it could not be used in that context. While Rubio has essentially come around and said that that was not the case, his quote on the Portuguese press was Portugal said yes, before they even knew what the question was, which is very different from establishing set guidelines on how the large's airbase could be used. Now, in the meantime, the Portuguese government came out and said that those comments from Marco Rubio were taken out of context, but Washington doubled down and said, no, they should be interpreted exactly as they were. So now there's a lot and renewed tension over Portugal's actual perceived involvement in the conflict with Iran. And I know that the ambassadors in Each country are already being called for conversations that I'm sure are not going to be easy ones.

[Emma Nelson]

No, they'll be quite complicated ones, I imagine. How's this being covered in Portugal? Because obviously it has, you know, the Portuguese press has to position itself in a, in a, in a way which reflects the difficult situation that the Portuguese authorities find themselves in.

[Carlota Rebelo]

Well, it's interesting because the Portuguese press were obviously one of the first to pick up on that comment from Marco Rubio because for quite a few, you know, weeks in the news cycle, the government, the Portuguese government's line of no, we are not siding with Iran, there's strict parameters kept being commented on and, you know, the ministers and commentators were doing the rounds in the Portuguese media trying to establish that line. And essentially with a comment from Marco Rubio in an interview that he gave to Fox News about other issues, but where this issue of the largest airfield came up completely through that way. So now the government is facing questions from the opposition. The Portuguese press is obviously covering that and it will lead to serious debates over the coming week about why. Why, one, they said that the airbase could be used without knowing what would be the intent. And second, is there a question of lying to the.

[Emma Nelson]

Here, too. Let's move on to huge business fashion news that broke in the last few hours. Estee Lauder and Preej have been talking to each other for about two months about mergers and it would have created a huge, huge, huge global beauty giant. Explain to us. It's gone wrong, hasn't it? The merger talks have failed.

[Carlota Rebelo]

Absolutely. This story is one of the top stories on El Pais this morning and it is the breakdown of these merger talks. If it had gone ahead, it's the merger between Estee Lauder and puj, it would have created a fashion and beauty powerhouse that would be worth nearly $40 billion. Now, Puj is reporting. Well, El Pais is reporting that Puj says that, you know, the talks just came to an end, that the brand is now going to focus on growing its luxury brands. But it really leaves it up in the air what really happened behind the scene. You know, the firm maintains that this breakdown does not affect the strategy and will continue to focus particularly on perfum premium beauty and skin care. Now, there's a strategic roadmap that POOJ had established a long time ago. And I know we've covered it at the time and when these talks first began, but, you know, there was a lot of excitement. These are two long established family businesses, obviously one from Spain, another American, and it could have really created a beauty giant that would compete with the likes of l', Oreal, for example. So huge news and it will be interesting to see if someone else presents a deal to brings a deal to the table for Puge.

[Emma Nelson]

Now, now, finally, who doesn't love a hot priest? Carlotta.

[Carlota Rebelo]

Well, I know. That's why I brought this story. It had Emma Nelson written all over it.

[Emma Nelson]

Okay, tell us all about the story that has Emma Nelson written all over it.

[Carlota Rebelo]

Now Emma, in your many trips to the Vatican over the past 17 years,

[Emma Nelson]

let's purely religious reasons. Colette, I'm devoted to.

[Carlota Rebelo]

I'm sure you will have seen among the tourists and souvenir tat the very famous hot priest calendar. Now this has been a staple for a while of any visit to the Vatican. Well, it has now been emerged that the hot priest that graces the COVID and has been graced cover all these years actually is not a priest at all. Someone who just dressed up for the calendar. So it is a big scandal. And now the story from the from AP has the title Holy Deception.

[Emma Nelson]

Goodness me. Hot priest dress up. Who would have absolutely thought. Carlotta Rebelo Monocle, senior correspondent in Istanbul. Don't miss your plane. We are very grateful for you bringing us a pay per view. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's a look at what else we're keeping an eye on. Today there have been protests in Greenland following the opening of a larger US diplomatic hub. Demonstrators showed their opposition to Donald Trump's ambition for greater influence on the Arctic island. The new United States consulate is a large office replacing a wooden cabin. President Trump has postponed signing his own executive order on regulating new AI models. He said he didn't like certain elements. Mr. Trump said he didn't want anything to obstruct America's AI supremacy. Estee Lauder Companies and Puige have ended merger talks without a deal. Discussions of a merger between the two beauty giants have fallen through after two months of negotiations. The late night host Stephen Colbert has presented his last show on cbs. Colbert is a vocal critic of President Trump and CBS has been accused of bowing to political pressure. And police on the Italian volcanic island of Stromboli have stopped a film production party attended by the rock star Mick Jagger because music is banned on a Wednesday. The Rolling Stone singer was on Stromboli to film the movie Three Incestuous Sisters. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. 8:30am in Warsaw. 7:30am here in London. Now the Polish defense minister has sought to reassure this week that all is well with the United States. It follows a decision announced by the White House to delay the deployment of an estimated 4,000 troops to Poland. And although, although the vice president, J.D. vance, denied that the troops were being withdrawn from Europe, it started speculation, not least because in the last few hours, President Donald Trump has now said that the US will send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland. To try and make sense of it all, I'm joined by Mateusz Mazzini, who's a writer at large at Gevaseta Wybor, lecturer in journalism at Kilijim Civitas in Warsaw, which is where he joins me from now. Good morning, Mateusz.

[Mateusz Mazzini]

Good morning.

[Emma Nelson]

What's happened?

[Mateusz Mazzini]

No one really seems to know, at least just now, as you've mentioned yourself overnight, we received a social media entry from President Donald Trump because this seems to be the preferred method of communication, not just of Trump himself, but of the entire American administration. And Trump wrote that he's pleased to say or pleased to announce that additional 5,000American servicemen will be allocated to Poland. And I think the single most important part of that social media entry is that he strengthened his personal bond with President Novgorodsky, the far right, ultra conservative Polish president that he backed himself in last year's Poland presidential ballot. And he made it very, very, very clear that this decision is a result of very specific personal bond between the president of the United States and the president of, of Poland, not a result of strategic analysis, not a result of America's commitment to its allies stemming from its membership in NATO. We're entering an era of personalized or heavily personalized geopolitics. And apparently this is what matters for Trump more than the very fact that Poland is a eastern flank country of NATO, very important in deterrence against Russia,

[Emma Nelson]

which is deeply unsettling for Poland, for the European Union, for the Baltic Sea region, and also for NATO, too.

[Mateusz Mazzini]

Well, rightly so, because we need to take that into consideration and going to place it in a wider context because right now we got a cryptic message from Trump saying that other or additional 5,000 troops will be allocated to Poland. No one knows which ones. Whether this will be the rotation that's based in Texas that was paused so abruptly last week, or whether the 5,000 allocated to Poland will correspond to the 5,000 are supposedly meant to be removed from Western Germany, but that's only going to happen within the next six to 12 months. So right now there is actually, mathematically speaking, a reduced American military presence in Poland because that rotation that we spoke about has remained in Texas. The German based American troops are still in Germany. So the total number of American servicemen here in Poland has decreased significantly from 10,000 to 6,000. But taking into consideration that Poland has been labeled repeatedly a model ally by the Trump administration, even the Polish centrist government has actually refused to publicly condemn Trump on any occasion. Polish political class kind of speaks in unison on this. They're very, very cautious around Trump. And given the Poland is a European contented leader in spending on defense. And even that hasn't stopped Trump from creating disinformation, which obviously decreases the terrorist capacity of NATO. That only says that everyone in the alliance should be worried because no one's really safe.

[Emma Nelson]

I was lucky enough to be in Estonia last week for a discussion about the Baltic Sea region and its ability to defend itself when it comes to security. And there was very much the sense of what you said that America is no longer the reliable partner that it always has been. But there was this real wonderment, we're wondering and head scratching as to how how the Baltic Sea region and how Poland and how indeed Europe as a whole can actually galvanize by itself to ensure that were this instability to continue with the Trump administration, that this part of the world, your part of the world, actually would be able to hold itself up.

[Mateusz Mazzini]

I think we need to actually understand what kind of role these American troops play in the security architecture of the Eastern flag. I mean, the total number of Americans here in Poland at the at its highest level reached 11,000 troops. And almost all of them are here on rotation basis. That practically means that they circulate between the United States Poland Poland every nine months. They're not deployed here permanently, contrary to, for instance, the ones in Germany. That's why the kind of understanding of the political class here in Poland of what happened last week was that because Friedrich Merz lashed out at Trump weeks ago about America's inability to win the war in Iran. Trump demands punishment for Europeans and it's obviously easiest to hit them where it hurts the most, which is the American security umbrella. But people in the Pentagon figure out it would be easier to remove or to stop a rotation of 4,000 troops to Poland than it would be to remove 5,000American servicemen that are permanently state with their families, for instance, in West Germany. So that only that speaks volumes because that shows that even the deterrence capacity or the deterrence factor inside NATO isn't really working properly. And Americans are only here for deterrence. No one of sane mind would say that 10,000 troops in Poland would actually defend the country from a conventional kinetic Russian invasion. They're here to scare the Russians off. And now a lot of people here in the Polish diplomatic circles, for instance, are beginning to wonder whether when we speak about American security guarantee, we should actually add a so called American security guarantees factor to that phrase.

[Emma Nelson]

So finally, when the German chancellor Friedrich Maz enters into an argument with Donald Trump about the global involvement in the conflict in Iran, how much of an irritant is that to the polls?

[Mateusz Mazzini]

Well, I think it's an irritant only from a strategic sense of what's going to happen with NATO, because I don't think the Polish government is too distant from Merz in their assessment of what's going on in Iran. Everyone in Europe is going to pay a price of that war through higher energy prices, a crisis that might actually unfold in every single NATO member country within the next few weeks or next months, over the summer, definitely, because we know that the market is still, still overconfident in Trump's capacity to end that war. So the Polish leadership is looking at that a little baffled. Poland doesn't have any agency, any capacity to meaningfully affect the outcome of the war, but it's actually trying to improve both its relationship with Germany, the single most important security player in our region, and at the same time maintains some sort of of stability in relations with the United States. But the latter is actually proving increasingly difficult.

[Emma Nelson]

Matthias Mazzini, writer at large at Gazeta Bivocza and lecturer in journalism at Collegian Civitas in Warsaw. Thank you so much for joining me on Monocle Radio. Well, it's set Friday and that means one thing. Here's what we lear.

[Andrew Muller]

This week of the setting of another of those records, which are, if we're being honest, there for the taking by pretty much anyone who can really be bothered. And these always ease us in nicely, am I right? We learned that in Tancitaro in the Mexican state of Michoacan, local avocado growers had whipped up the biggest ever bowl of guacamole, fully 6,800 kilograms of the stuff. Big hello to our listeners in Tan Cetaro.

[Emma Nelson]

Hello.

[Andrew Muller]

Sticking with the subject of greenish, viscous sludge, We learned north of the Rio Grande that the swamp was being inexorably drained. We learned this from US Vice President and wearily regular refresher of actuarial tables assessing the life expectancy of morbidly obese octogenarians. J.D.

[J.D. Vance]

vance, Fighting Fraud in Washington, D.C. it's a little bit like Fishing in a barrel with a nuclear weapon, from which

[Andrew Muller]

we learn that similes may be added to the extensive list of things which appear not to be the Vice President Strong's like how would fishing in a barrel with a nuclear weapon even go? Could cause more problems than it solves, is what we're saying. But we learned that if there was a case of corruption to be found in the nation's capital, Vance was on it. Like hillbilly elegy on any discerning list of the 21st century's stupidest books.

[J.D. Vance]

Every single day my staff will bring me new reports of the ways that you're being defrauded.

[Andrew Muller]

Will they indeed? Do go on.

[J.D. Vance]

There's a simple principle that I have which is if you are committing fraud against the American people, you ought to go to prison.

[Andrew Muller]

Would you, Mr. Vice President, care to dig yourself any deeper?

[J.D. Vance]

If you are a public official and you're not fighting against fraud, you ought to have your money taken away because you should not be able to steal from all of you and give it to fraudsters.

[Andrew Muller]

For we learned and listeners suspecting a deft yet cunning foreshadowing device may now award themselves a point that Vance's stirring message about the evils of self serving graft by the people's representatives languished sadly unreceived in one noteworthy quarter.

[Scott Lucas]

Donald Trump is setting up a $1.7 billion political slush fund for the proud boys and the Oath Keepers and his other political lieutenants and hangers on.

[Andrew Muller]

Yes, we learned, as was there articulated by a bemused Congressman Jamie Raskin of the Maryland 8th, that US President Donald Trump was preparing to distribute just short of $1.8 billion of taxpayers money to these. Those people being specifically the mob who stormed the US Capitol building on January 6, 2021 with a view to forestalling the certification of a presidential election and perhaps for good measure, stringing up the Vice President who was declining to play along, we learned that in a heartwarming acknowledgment of the looming 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, the precise amount to be dispensed was was $1.776 billion. You see what they've done there? And we learned that some of the putative putschists were already spending the loot.

[Massimo Marioni]

The number I've put in is $30 million. You know, 21.5 million is for the wrongful imprisonment.

[Andrew Muller]

And fair enough, as people promised money by Donald Trump have always and invariably received all of it in full on time. So we learn that in addition to already being pardoned by Trump, the 1500 or so January 6th rioters imprisoned for their role in the affray are to be paid off by their fellow citizens whose will they were seeking to thwart. And we learned that this was all by way of helping persuade Trump to drop his lawsuit against the United States own Internal Revenue Service. Also under the terms of which President

[Scott Lucas]

Trump and his taxes and the extraordinary

[Emma Nelson]

order now from the Justice Department now

[Scott Lucas]

barring the IRS from investigating President Trump,

[Emma Nelson]

his sons and their companies.

[Andrew Muller]

Still, that's probably fine, as it is literally unimaginable that President Trump or his sons have ever been or could ever be involved in any business activity which may conceivably pique the interest of any kind of regulator. Honestly, you might as well insinuate that Trump cheats at golf. And is that something that strikes anyone as remotely conceivable? Well, is it?

[Emma Nelson]

Oh, when pigs fall, rain would fall upwards.

[Andrew Muller]

That would never, ever happen.

[UBS Narrator]

I really don't see it.

[Andrew Muller]

Surely not quite. Also, we're sure that we would learn if we looked it up that even those convicted of crimes committed on January 6, 2021, and subsequently pardoned and released back into society have been duly reformed and model citizens thereafter. 159 had prior criminal records. 33 have been charged with committing new crimes since receiving Trump's mercy. But come on, that was like five months ago. Probably all been pretty quiet since. Investigators say Bettenker livestreamed himself stroking women's hair on the metro.

[Scott Lucas]

He previously spent time in prison for his role in the January 6 Capitol riot.

[Andrew Muller]

He also faces burglary charges and stalking accusations.

[Emma Nelson]

A local man pardoned by President Donald Trump for his role in the January 6th Capitol riots has been sentenced to life in prison for child molestation. Pardoned January 6th protester Ryan Nichols was arrested after allegedly displaying a firearm during a dispute in a church parking lot.

[Andrew Muller]

You can't win them all, etc. But. And Maestro, the state song of Massachusetts, all hail to Massachusetts, the land of the free and the brave. We learned from all of the above that it was, all things considered, an even sadder week than it might otherwise have been to learn of the passing of former long serving Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank, who was always willing to serve as, among many other useful things, a sentient rebuke to the superstitions of the median voter. When you asked me that question, I am going to revert to my ethnic heritage and ask to your question with a question. On what planet do you spend Most of your time, Alton, Core, etc. Trying to have a conversation with you would be like trying to argue with a dining room table. I have no interest in doing it. For Monacle Radio, I'm Andrew Mullin. The land of Pilgrim's Pride.

[Emma Nelson]

Thank you, Andrew. You're listening to the Glass. Globalist

[UBS Narrator]

iq, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS Banking is our craft.

[Emma Nelson]

Business. Tech news now. And it's a day of big numbers and big movement. Joining me to explore everything is Massimo Marioni, a former senior and editor at Fortune. Good morning, Massimo. How are you? You?

[Andrew Thompson]

Good morning, Emma.

[Massimo Marioni]

Great to be back.

[Emma Nelson]

Good to have you. Right, we're going to talk about SpaceX, we're going to talk about Nvidia and we're going to talk about Meta. They will have record breaking moves taking place, either IPOs or earnings or indeed the number of staff that they're just about to get rid of. That's Meta, isn't is?

[Massimo Marioni]

Yeah, unfortunately there were big layoffs announced at Meta this week. They're cutting around 8,000 jobs even though they're making record profits. CEO Mark Zuckerberg says the company needs to move faster and become more efficient as the AI race heats up. And his warning is that, you know, success isn't a given even for a company as big as Meta. And that really tells you where Silicon Valley is right now.

[Emma Nelson]

Explain to us what, I mean, what these priorities are, you know, where Silicon Valley is at the moment.

[Massimo Marioni]

Yeah, sure. You know, tech companies are spending huge amounts on AI infrastructure, data centers, chips, and this is to keep up with this huge appetite for AI that is among big companies and especially from investors, because they see that as a vehicle to propel profits.

[Emma Nelson]

And explain to us a little bit about what that sort of how that sets the tone for the rest of the tech world and the way that this moves on. Because the focus on profit is no great surprise really, is it, Massimo?

[Massimo Marioni]

It's not, it's not. And layoffs are a part of that strategy, unfortunately. And that's the awkward part because Meta, is it enormously profitable yet thousands of people are losing their jobs and you know, they are funneling this money from, you know, what they pay for staff into these AI projects and these AI infrastructures that they expect will generate Huge returns in the future.

[Emma Nelson]

I mean, that also ties into what we were talking about in the headlines a little while ago, that Trump, President Trump has postponed signing his own executive order on regulating new AI models, saying he doesn't like certain elements of it. But Mr. Trump says he doesn't want, want anything to obstruct America's AI supremacy. Is, Is that effected? What, what's driving all this? Or, you know, there was ambition already, wasn't there?

[Massimo Marioni]

There was, there was. And, and, you know, it's, it's really interesting what's happening at Meta, because workers have been already riled up about the company's plans to surveil them extensively at work and use the data it collects to train AI models, which feels very, very creepy in a way. And it's essentially, you know, I think a lot of workers feel like they're digging their own graves to an ext extent because they are being surveilled by this technology which they feel will eventually replace them.

[Emma Nelson]

Let's move on to another huge giant of the world's most valuable company, Nvidia. Its value has slipped despite lifting dividends for its shareholders. What's happening there?

[Massimo Marioni]

Yeah, it's posted another set of massive earnings, but this time, investors didn't seem that impressed, unfortunately. So for the past two years, Nvidia has been the big winner of the AI race. And when I say big winner, you know, Nvidia alone has powered nearly a fifth of the S&P 500's gains since the beginning of the year. So it is absolutely huge. The company's growing at an extraordinary pace. Revenues are at record levels, but market reaction has been surprisingly muted, I'd say. And that's important because it suggests investors are starting to ask tougher questions, like how much more growth is actually possible here. And there's also growing competition that they're worried about. So big companies are increasingly designing their own chips, and investors are wondering whether the current AI spending boom can continue forever.

[Emma Nelson]

There is that sense, though, isn't there? And I think this has been mentioned in an article in the Financial Times today. There's a law of large numbers, that Nvidia becomes like Apple. It becomes just a safe place to invest best.

[Massimo Marioni]

Exactly, exactly. I mean, you would think there is only so much more room for growth. It has, you know, put such big numbers on the board over the last few years that, you know, eventually even earnings beats like it had this week will underwhelm, unfortunately for them, and that will lead to stock market dips because there is such High expectations for them.

[Emma Nelson]

Let's touch on stock market and tech because it is what so many people have said have been absolutely powering so much of The S&P's gains in the last year. And the idea of stocks and technology are always a safe and an interesting bet. The FT this morning is saying fast entry. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will ignite a Wall street trading frenzy. What do we know about this?

[Massimo Marioni]

Yeah, this is an interesting one. So you know, early this week SpaceX officially filed to go public. It could become the biggest stock market listing ever. Now, within hours of the filing, reports also emerged that OpenAI is preparing for a future stock market listing. Anthropic says it's getting closer to profitability, which usually means an IPO is somewhere on the horizon too. But Wall street is looking at the possibility of, you know, these three enormous AI era companies all heading towards the public market at roughly the same time. Now the NASDAQ has changed its rules so giant new companies like SpaceX can join major stock market indices much faster. Okay, so that it means, you know, trillions of dollars are tied up in passive index funds and ETFs. So those funds don't actively choose stocks themselves. They automatically buy whoever enters the index.

[Andrew Thompson]

Right.

[Massimo Marioni]

So if SpaceX joins the NASDAQ 100 huge amounts of money could be forced into the ST almost immediately. And the catch is that SpaceX is only planning to sell a relatively small number of shares at first. So you could end up with massive demand, not so much supply and a real buying frenzy around the stock.

[Emma Nelson]

Is it worth it though, in the long term? Because this is always that perpetual question about bubble which always arises when it comes to vastly inflated valuations.

[Massimo Marioni]

It is, it is. It's going to be a fascinating development to see how these companies affect markets, what the knock on effects of these index funds will be. And one Alan has said it could be like no other index event in recent history, which is exciting on one hand, but also very unpredictable and unsettling on the other.

[Emma Nelson]

Simo Marioni, thank you so much for joining us on Monaco Rad. Now, finally, the world's largest and most powerful rocket, SpaceX's Starship, has failed to launch a critical test flight from Starbase in Texas. The delay was reportedly caused by a malfunctioning hydraulic pin on part of the launch tower. This would have been the 12th test for the Starship V3, but it's first month. SpaceX, it says it'll have another go today once it's fixed the pin. Tira Schubert is a fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society, ambassador for the Science Museum, regular explainer of all things to do with rocket. Good morning, Tira.

[Tira Schubert]

Good morning, Emma.

[Emma Nelson]

She's in a swimming costume, ladies and gentlemen. Am I allowed to say that I've just done it? I'm sorry, you're just about to go swimming in the Serpentine.

[Tira Schubert]

I am indeed. And that's one of the reasons I can never go into space. There's no place to swim up there.

[Emma Nelson]

I think this is a world first. I don't think we've had a swimming costume in the studio before. So thank you. Are, you know, very modestly clothed. We will absolutely give you that. But there's a, there's a pink peek of a speedo sign blinking at me. Right. So we were hoping to do a piece on Starship blasting off into space and having a wonderful time, but this little pin on the launch tower managed to ruin everybody's plans.

[Tira Schubert]

Yes, it was a bad hydraulic pin day, but it will have another go tonight. And in fact It'll be about 10:30 in the evening, London time. It'll probably work this time. And it's the new improved Starship because the last test was in the autumn, about seven months ago. And they've had a number of issues and unless they get it going, the timeline won't match NASA's desire to land on, on the moon in 2028. They are under pressure because they have a competitor, they have Blue Origin competitor.

[Emma Nelson]

The interesting thing all about this is that we all anticipate things to go well and then they fail. But actually failure is part of the whole plan, isn't it? The failing better is essentially the whole point of this. But then when you mention something like the competitive nature of what's happening in the space world, it does actually add that extra sort of little bit of excitement, doesn't it?

[Tira Schubert]

Yes. And they both want. Both NASA. NASA wants both Blue Origin and Starship to carry lunar modules, which means that'll be the vehicle that lands on the moon and that's supposed to be tested in Earth orbit next year. But Starship, this is a new improved Starship. It's a bit taller than the previous one and it has more oomph. It has 33 Raptor engines, but it is.

[Emma Nelson]

What does that mean?

[Tira Schubert]

Well, it's a very cool name.

[Emma Nelson]

Just bought a bigger car, haven't they?

[Tira Schubert]

It's 33 engines that start up simultaneously and give it a lot more power and a lot more thrust and they can carry heavier things such as astronauts plus cargo to not only the moon, but Mars. The problem is, is that they're going to have to refuel on the way there.

[Emma Nelson]

And that's a whole thing, isn't it? Once you start having bigger rockets, you need to get, you know, you can have bigger starships, but you have to basically stop off for a refueling pocket halfway through. How do they do that?

[Tira Schubert]

Well, there are going to be other starships that carry great big tanks of fuel. And in the same way we've all seen the way that air forces around the world can refuel their jets in flight. Well, this is going to be two starships side by side as they go around Earth orbit or beyond, sending fuel to one another. It's going to be very interesting to see whether that works. But Musk, Elon Musk is very determined that the starship is going to be the vehicle that allows interplanetary life to happen.

[Emma Nelson]

Just explain to us, we were talking a moment ago about the blockbuster listings of the great the tech companies. And SpaceX is sort of pushed into that one because of its listing of valuation of a trillion dollars. One wonders when this thing is actually going to either start to make a profit or what the sort of like the long term future of this company is.

[Tira Schubert]

Well, yes, SpaceX has made losses, but on the other hand, they've allowed so many new technologies to be launched. And Starship and the other Starship being one of the vehicles that SpaceX puts up, has reduced the cost of spaceflight substantially, in some cases almost up to 90% to get something up in space.

[Emma Nelson]

And this therefore has become central. Starship has become central to Elon Musk's vision for space travel and indeed our vision for space travel. I mean, is this reshaping space?

[Tira Schubert]

It is reshaping space because. Because this is going to be the vehicle that carries human beings to the moon and then Mars, as he hopes.

[Emma Nelson]

Sarah Schubert, thank you so much for joining us. And they're going to have another go when?

[Tira Schubert]

Well, tonight at about 10:30 London time.

[Emma Nelson]

Let's go and help them with that hydraulic pin. Thank you so much for joining me in the studio. And that's all the time we have for today's programme. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers Angelica Jobson, Laura Kramer and Desiree Bandly. Our researcher was Josefina Gomez and our studio manager was Elliot Greenfield, with editing assistance by Mariella Bevan. After the headlines. More music on the way. The briefing is live at midday here in London. The globalist is back at the same time on Monday. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, Goodbye. Thank you very much for listening. Sam. Foreign.

[UBS Narrator]

With UBS you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do enough, even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.