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The Globalist
US-Iran ceasefire at breaking point after fresh attacks in the UAE and Strait of Hormuz
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UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on the 5th of May, 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, the US Strikes Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE says it is being attacked by Iranian drones. So is this the end of the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran? Also ahead in the next 60 minutes,
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Rob Cameron
I do think that it is fitting
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Theo Usherwood
that Canada is the first non European
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Paul Walde
country to join this forum, as we
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Emma Nelson
are the most European of non European countries. Mark Carney places Canada as a key partner of Europe will assess the Canadian Prime Minister's championing of the Middle power.
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Andrew Wu
Also, the majority of our engineers are still housed in Taiwan. So I'm proudly saying that it's designed in Taiwan but then still perfectly crafted in China.
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Emma Nelson
The pride of a radio manufacturer who's kept production local, plus the papers too. That's all coming up on the Globalist, live from London. Before we begin, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. Lebanon's Health Ministry says at least 17 people have been killed by Israeli strikes in the last 24 hours. Separatists in Alberta and Western Canada say more than 300,000 people have signed a petition calling for independence for the province. And Doris Fisher, the co founder of Gap, has died aged 94. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, we begin with an escalation in military action between the US And Iran. The US President Donald Trump pledged earlier to guide ships safely through the Strait of Hormuz, where there's been an ongoing standoff with Iran, who's blocking the waterway. But there have been wildly conflicted reports of what is actually happening there. Meanwhile, the UAE says it it has had to defend itself from fresh drone attacks, presumably sent from Tehran. So where does this leave the ceasefire? So to tell us what's happening and to ask whether there is actually indeed anything left of the ceasefire, let's hear now from Nina Dos Santos, international broadcast correspondent, former CNN Europe editor. She joins me in the studio now. Welcome back, Nina.
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Nina Dos Santos
Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
Lots of coming and going and lots of conflicting reports of what has been happening in the last 24 hours, depending on who you're listening to.
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Nina Dos Santos
Yes, that's right. So we're 68 days into Donald Trump's war on Iran and we're also about four weeks into the ceasefire that had temporarily left things in this sort of hiatus with the Strait of Hormuz, that key oil transit route being blocked and Donald Trump wanted to unblock it, unleashing what he called Project Freedom. This was a plan over the last 24 hours to guide ships from neutral countries out through the Strait of Hormuz to unblock the the oil trade. Remember that the oil price has obviously been spiking quite significantly ever since the start of the Iran war. Well, now it seems as though Iran has claimed that it's fired on U.S. warships. At one point yesterday it claimed to have struck one. The United States rubbished those claims. But at the same time, the United States also says that it has hit several small boats in this sort of chaotic day. And it's not entirely clear who's telling the truth here because Iran has denied that. The only thing we can see at this point is that it appears as though the main oil installation of Fujairah in the UAE has suffered a drone attack, as you were mentioning in your introduction, believed to be from Iran. We're not entirely sure. But that would be in keeping with what we've seen over the last two or three months of this Iran war where US Allies, in particular the UAE face this barrage of missiles fired at them from Tehran as a result of the United States action in Iran. So I suppose the big question here is whether or not this four week long ceasefire is finally unraveling.
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Emma Nelson
Well, we're looking at sort of very fast developing events at the moment. We have the Iranian foreign minister in the last 10 minutes has said that events in Hormuz make it clear there is no military solution to a political crisis. The US should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill wishers. Warning to the uae. Project Freedom says the Iranian foreign minister is Project Deadloc. Regardless who you believe, they do have a point there that if you start to introduce something like Project Freedom, the Iranians are not going to sit quietly.
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Nina Dos Santos
Well, what this war in Iran has taught Iran is that actually forget the fact that the original pretext or one of the many pretexts for going into Iran or at least bombing Iran by the United States was to effect regime change or to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Really what's come out of this is Iran being able to demonstrate internationally that it has a chokehold over 20% of the world's oil supply. And Project Freedom is designed to unblock that. But obviously that is the trump card, forgive the pun, that Iran has at this moment. And it's very, very forcefully making sure that it can continue to hold that. And concomitantly, what we're seeing at the same time is these sort of stalled peace negotiations taking place, mediated by Pakistan. So I suppose the question in the future is Iran. Obviously they're hinting, you know, there's a political. Or that the solution should be political, perhaps economic, but not necessarily militarily. But the question is Donald Trump, apparently I was reading in one of the newspapers earlier today, was presented with a whole range of military options to resume strikes on Iran just as recently as last week, and instead decided to step back from that and believe that a more limited operation here in the form of Project Freedom, this idea of escorting those neutral oil tankers, neutral country flagged oil tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz, would be a more limited one. But it appears as though the backlash has been quite significant on both sides.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. And it does look that there's not a sort of a breaking of the deadlock. But the Project Freedom project trying to get ships out of the Strait of Hormuz is partially working, I think. Maersk, the shipping company, has confirmed one of its vessels had been able to exit the Gulf accompanied by the US Military. But when we talk about a political solution, it, it flies absolutely in the face with the public way in which both Iran and America have been talking. I just mentioned the fact that the Iranian foreign minister had posted an argument on X a few minutes ago. But we also have Donald Trump and the White House taking an incredibly aggressive public stance on the likes of. On their social media.
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Nina Dos Santos
That's right. Obviously remember that we had just a few weeks ago, Donald Trump's threats that really shocked many of his Western allies as well. Well, claimed that, quote, an entire civilization would be obliterated if Iran didn't comply to the latest demand there. Well, now we're back to the kind of bellicose rhetoric on X. But we're also back to these really interesting memes because the latest one that the White House has put out, which again, just seems, frankly, quite weird, is a picture of one of these AI stylized images, is the picture of Donald Trump sort of disguised as some kind of figure from The Star wars franchise, the Mandalorian with, you know, the Yoda in his pocket. You know, essentially the message here to the MAGA base is Donald Trump is defending you. He's defending you on the world stage in terms of sort of the United States foreign policy heft. But he's also defending you in your pocket because remember, the midterm elections are coming around in a few months time and the oil price is still pretty high. Now, if we look at the oil price ever since this action started in the last 24 hours, it's up another 6% to $114.44 barrel last time I looked in terms of Brent crude. So you can imagine that there's going to be some pressure on the oil price, there's going to be some pressure further down the line on the US Economy and also on food prices and things like that, because we know that inflation takes about 6, 8 months to kick in from those higher energy prices. There's also blockage in terms of fertilizer getting around the world as a result of these container ships here being stuck. That's affecting farmers all over the world who are currently needing to fertilize their crops right now in the spring, the autumn harvest. So Donald Trump, from his perspective, is very keen to try and unblock this and get this sorted out as soon as possible. Question is, will the Iranians play ball? Doesn't look like it.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. I mean, We've seen the US stocks closing lower on Monday. The standard S&P508 ended the day 0.4%, Nasdaq, 0.2% jumps in oil prices. Investors again having to be being buffeted by the deep unpredictability of all this. It's been interesting in the last couple of weeks when there's been a toing and froing, but nothing, no, no sort of palpable break of a ceasefire that the markets and oil prices, although they're going up, have not been really changed by any handbrake turns in rhetoric or exchanges of words. But now we have what looks to be a ceasefire teetering on the brink. We are looking at now a return to deep instability.
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Nina Dos Santos
Although Donald Trump just yesterday, actually, in one of the many interviews he was giving, I think it was with either a financial podcast or otherwise within a bunch of business people. Just yesterday, he was keen to yet again get on his safe ground, which is business and the economy. And he said, look, the stock market is at a record high. I mean, this is something that we heard during his first administration, by the way. As well. He's successful, repeatedly said, I have created success for the business community. I have created higher than ever stock market returns. The real concern, though, for many people who've covered the 2007, 2008 financial crisis, including myself, by the way, is that there are many parallels with history. So back in those days, what we saw was a stock market that was high. We saw record high energy prices at something like over 124, $127 a barrel. And we also store strife in the Middle east and very, very high valuations. At the moment, the high valuations are in the technology space, AI raising huge amounts of money and so on. But there's a lot of people who say that they're very, very concerned that we could be at this kind of biting point. And the question is, what is it that'll tip things over the brink?
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Emma Nelson
Nina Dos Santos, International broadcast correspondent, former CNN Europe editor thank you so much for joining me in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist. The time is what, 8:12 in Bratislava, 7:12am here in London. Now has the departure from the office of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban had prompted a policy rethink beyond its borders. The Slovakian Prime Minister, Robert Fitzo, a close ally of Mr. Orban, seems to have changed his mind over his country's stance on Ukraine. So to unpick this change in direction, I'm joined now by Rob Cameron, journalist and the BBC's correspondent in Prague. A very good morning to you, Rob.
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Rob Cameron
Good morning, Emma.
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Paul Walde
How are you?
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Emma Nelson
Very well, thank you. What's been said by Robert Fitzo?
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Rob Cameron
Well, we've certainly seen something of a change, a departure, as you mentioned there. But I suppose the question is, is it just a tonal shift or is it actually a real change in Mr. Fico's attitude towards Ukraine, towards the European Union, towards Volodymyr Zelenskyy, because Fico and Viktor or been two of the main opponents of Kyiv's military efforts against Russia for years, really. And of course, it was those two politicians who had blocked the EU's 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine. Now that Viktor Orban has gone, the Hungarian opposition to it has dissipated and it seems that Slovakia's Robert Fica is following. And indeed, since then, there has been something of a breaking of the ice, a warming of the relations between Robert Fico and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. For ages they exchanged barbs, you know, at press conferences and over social media. But yesterday the two men met on the fringes of this European Political Community summit in Yerevan in Armenia, which was their first meeting since Mr. Feeter returned to office in 2023. And they're now talking about perhaps a government meeting. So it seems that something has changed.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. I think the description of the meeting was an unexpectedly constructive exchange between the two leaders. And you know, the pictures were taken, the smiles were there, so were the handshakes. So do we now know what is, what has actually changed in terms of what Slovakia's approach is?
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Rob Cameron
I think two things, Emma. First of all, as we've already mentioned, you know, Autobahn is gone or going. And Robert Fitzo is now rather isolated. He no longer is part of a team of people who are prepared to go against the European mainstream, prepared to oppose the EU's policy of supporting Zelenskyy and Ukraine in its fight against Russia, prepared to block, you know, military support and financial support to Ukraine. So he's lost that ally and is on his own. The other thing is this, this bone of contention between Slovakia and Hungary and also and between Ukraine is this Druzhba pipeline that brings oil into Central Europe. And obviously it has been nothing flowing through it since Russian attacks earlier this year. The Ukrainians said that they needed time to repair it. Slovakia and Hungary were saying, no, this is the Ukrainians deliberately refusing using to renew the flow of Russian oil via Ukraine to Central Europe. Now that has been repaired and we believe that the oil is flowing once again. That is a major impediment to relations improving between the two countries between Ukraine and Slovakia that has been removed. So there is now no key flashpoint between the two. There are still problems and there are still issues that they have to discuss and there are still disagreements, but that that key irritant has been removed, the oil is flowing and the two men
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Emma Nelson
are talking more widely. What does this mean for Slovakia's relationship with the European Union? Because we're talking here about Robert Fico being more isolated because of the departure of Viktor Orban, but he's still going to the Russian victory day parade this month. And so there is still very much that sense that although Viktor Orban is out of the picture, Robert Orban, sorry, Robert Fitzo, there I am mixing up the two names. Robert Fitzo can actually find himself welcomed
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Rob Cameron
in Moscow indeed, although there is one key caveat to that, Emma, and it was true last year and it's going to be true this year. What happened last year was that yes, Fico did go to Moscow on May Day, yes, he attended the celebrations. But eagle eyed Slovak journalists scouring the live Russian TV news feeds couldn't see him in the viewing stands during the parade. And then he popped up, you know, an hour later, laying wreaths at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and walking along with the group of leaders behind Vladimir Putin. And it transpired he wasn't at the parade. So he was in Moscow. He didn't go to the parade last year, and now he has, in fact, confirmed that that will be the case again this year. Yes, he says, I will go to Moscow if he can get there, because most European countries won't let the Slovak government plane fly over through their airspace to Russia. Yes, I will go, but I will be laying flowers the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, in recognition of the huge sacrifice that the Red army played in liberating Czechoslovakia and especially Slovakia. But he won't actually be on the viewing stands as, you know, the troops march by. So I think that's a key difference. So he's keen, as he says, to pursue this policy of foreign policy aimed at all four cardinal points of the compass. So, speaking to all countries around the world as part of what he describes as Slovakia's sovereign foreign policy, it still
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Emma Nelson
doesn't remove the tussle that the European Union has with the likes of Slovakia, with Poland as well, with populism and a more liberal approach, and indeed, where you are in the Czech Republic, that there is almost a sort of an ideological fight going on for the soul of that part of the world.
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Rob Cameron
There is, very much so. But I think, then again, things are changing. There were two remarkable, or maybe three remarkable images that really struck me on social media in the last, say, seven days. The first was a video interview with Poland's Donald Tusk after the EU summit in Brussels. And he was standing there in front of the cameras, and he was saying, yes, it's such a relief. This was after Orban had gone to have a meeting with my fellow EU counterparts, my EU colleagues, without Russia in the room, a reference to the Hungarians on the phone to Moscow during previous summits. At that moment, Robert Fico, just by chance, walked behind him, and the journalist said, are you sure Russia wasn't in the room? And he. He's. And he said, well, I think so, and laughed and said, it's a joke. A few days later, we saw, at the Yerevan summit, we saw Tusk and Fico and the Czech Republic's Andrei Babis in a sort of selfie that Mr. Babis put on social media, all smiles, suggesting that perhaps relations between the three are now on the up. And if Peter Margyar of Hungary joins them. Then the Vistagrad 4 group of central European countries could be rejuvenated, reanimated. And then finally yesterday's meeting between Fico and Zelenskyy. It was really interesting. There was one photo that appeared on social media showing the two men sitting on armchairs deep in discussion. Mr. Fico seemed very comfortable leaning back in his chair. He seemed in command of the situation and Zelenskyy was almost on the tip of his seat, very eager and eager to please. So that perhaps, I'm not sure if that was just a, you know, a random shot, but it suggests that something is changing in Central Europe and perhaps we're seeing Slovakia come back into the fold.
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Emma Nelson
Rob Cameron in Prague, thank you so much for joining us on the program.
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Rob Cameron
Still to come, the world is undergoing
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Theo Usherwood
a rupture across several dimensions in technology,
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Rob Cameron
in energy, in commerce and geopolitics.
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Emma Nelson
That's Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. They're giving a major address at the European Political Community Summit in Armenia, warning the rules based order under strain and new alliances must be formed. And we'll find out what Canada was doing at a European conference a little while later on the globalist.
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UBS Narrator
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals so you can get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights. Delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
Let's continue with today's newspapers. Joining me in the studio is Theo Usherwood, news editor for the Press Association. Good morning, Theo.
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Theo Usherwood
Very good morning.
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Emma Nelson
How's life in Theo's world?
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Theo Usherwood
It's very well, thank you.
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Emma Nelson
Yes.
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Theo Usherwood
Job. We're just discussing working at Press association on their news desk and I get to see all sorts of interesting stories all day, every day and, and it's always, it's, it's always changing. So yeah, it's fun times, it's good
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Emma Nelson
fun and it's actually quite nice to sort of talk to someone who's, who's working in an absolute. You're part of the backbone of British media coverage. I don't think anybody who's ever worked in British media will have done anything other than steal the Press Association's copy, especially when it comes to court.
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Theo Usherwood
Yes, it's, yes, we do, we do a lot of court copy and we relied on our reporters out every day and they're in court and they are relied on to provide fast, accurate copy. They still have their shorthand and they have their media training and it's a great. Actually, it's a great. But it's a great training ground for many young journalists. And I know that there are, you know, I started there and then I went away and to LBC and then came back. And there are many, you know, journalists who are very prominent in the media now who, who actually began their careers at precision.
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Emma Nelson
And it is very good to know that you still exist in a world where things are being sort of slimmed down and salami slicing. Theo is leading the charge for sort of rejuvenation, resurrection and continuation, right in between sending reporters to court to tell them to get their shorthand up to scratch. Tell us what you've spotted that other people might be raising.
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Theo Usherwood
There's an interesting story actually, in the UK Defence Journal about a type 23 frigate called HMS Iron Duke, which has now been withdrawn from active service. And that leaves the Navy with just five type 23 frigates. And this is less than three years after it had 103 million pound refit. And the reason I think this is important, there's two reasons that this is important and actually this is a story we've covered in press association a few times, is that Russia is increasingly upping the ante. This ship, this particular frigate, was actually most recently seen in active service back in October, escorting a Russian Kilo class submarine through the English Channel. We've seen many such instances, similar instances since, and it leaves the Royal Navy increasingly stretched. Think back to the comments that Pete Hegseth made the US Defence Secretary Donald Trump made. Of course, they stung, they hurt and they were unfair or viewed as deeply unfair there, particularly around the comments about the UK armed forces, because Keir Starmer wouldn't deploy them for active. He wouldn't apply them for assertive action against Iran. Rather than just offensive. Offensive, I should say, rather than just offensive. But that, that stings because actually we are seeing increasingly the denigration of our, our armed forces in this country, the fenestration of our armed forces. UK is a proud naval power. We're an island, you know, an island which, you know, was the. Was the preeminent sea power during the last century and the century before, and now we seem unable to defend ourselves.
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Emma Nelson
Well, it's an interesting thing because I think that the general sort of the lessening of the British Navy's presence out on the ocean has become something which has been catalogued for for way more than a decade. We have seen this for a very, very, very long time. And it I wonder whether this is just the United Kingdom which is experiencing this problem or whether about, you know, 10 years ago we all decided that no one was ever going to go to war again using, you know, the traditional military means. And so that the idea that trying to invest millions in the construction of new vessels like a type 23 frigate was actually a waste of money at the time. And everybody's been caught short.
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Theo Usherwood
Yes. And you just look to the way that the United States, okay, it is a conflict rather than it's a tussle that's going on in the Strait of Hormuz right now. But the US Is engaged trying to keep that key shipping lane open for its interests. And at the moment we have not played a part in that. And I think the other point, and this is something I hear back from, of political work I'm involved in is you keep on hearing back this line about trade offs. We seem to have left the post Brexit world of you can have your cake and eat it. And we're now in this world where actually if you're not going, you can have your cake now, but if you have your cake now, then you've got to have a digestive biscuit later. And what I mean by that is that we can spend the money on defense, but we're going to have to not spend the money somewhere else. And increasingly the government is in this and this will be something that bedevils future governments, whether they be of whatever political stripe they may be be. But they're going to have to make conscious decisions about where they spend money. And you're quite right to say yes, in the years of austerity there were decisions that were made not to invest in our armed forces, but they're coming home to roost right now. And we need a, you know, it is widely accepted by all of the defense X, you know, the defense experts I've heard on programs such as Monocles and right across the board that actually the UK is increasingly vulnerable to the likes of, of Russia.
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Emma Nelson
Let's move on to the story in in the Guardian, although widely reported an explosion at a fireworks factory in China, 21 people have died. It's one of those terrible things that when you see explosion at fireworks factory there might be a small smile but then you realize it's actually that the level of danger and risk that people are being exposed to here and China exports so many firewalls.
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Tim Abrams
Yes.
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Theo Usherwood
So this is A huge explosion that's been verified by Reuters. It happened in Hunan province in, in a city called Luang. And not only did it kill 21, it also injured 61 people at a major hub for fireworks, 500 rescuers. So that gives you a scale of the rescue operation that's been launched, has been, have been deployed. Residents within a 1km radius of the explosion have been evacuated. And there's particular concern, Emma, around two black powder warehouses which have, have not been affected as yet. But there are fears that of course they could be affected by, you know, in the aftermath of the first explosion, you know, detonate themselves. The person in charge of the company, according to state media, has been detained and President Xi Jinping has ordered a thorough investigation to determine the caus of the explosion.
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Emma Nelson
Okay, finally, let's talk about an article in the Times about the Musee d' Orsay is displaying some works by Renoir and Degas. Sounds perfectly straightforward, but these are pieces of works that have been stolen by the Nazis.
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Theo Usherwood
It's an interesting story and of course there's always a thorny issue around whether to display, you know, how these works should go on display. But these are Degas dinner. This passionate art collector is displaying Degas dinner at the ball from 1919. And this is the impressionist depiction of a glittering 19th century Parisian ball with revellers dissolved into shimmering colour, the Times reports, and light beneath the grand chandeliers. And this was of course seized by the Nazis from the owners of the painting who were deported to Auschwitz and murdered there. The painting had then passed into the collection of Maurice Coutoult. I hope I'm pronouncing that correct. A Parisian genealogist who in circuit which the Times reports was unclear as to how he got hold of the painting, but now it's been put on display in the Musee d' Orsay and it's going to be inaugurated on Tuesday. And I think it's, I think it's fascinating that these works can finally come back into the public domain for people to see. And it's something. I actually got a trip to Paris in July, which I'm very much looking forward to with my wife. We've got a cut price deal on the Eurostar. So I'm going to. I'm going to. I'm going to. I'm going to. I'm tempted to head down and have a look myself.
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Emma Nelson
It's interesting because I think the Musee d' Orsay has actually assembled a group of people to actually try and work exactly on the provenance of a lot of difficult art and one wonders how much space will be given to attributing that art and those painting stories publicly. So that when you do see this beautiful picture by Degas, then actually you know the painful recent history that it's
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Theo Usherwood
experienced and the fact that it was taken from someone and ended up in the hands of someone who didn't necessarily have rightful ownership of it because it was seized by the Nazi regime.
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Emma Nelson
Leo Eschered, thank you so much. And we wish you the very best with your trip to Paris. You're listening to THE globalist. Now here's a look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. Lebanon's health ministry says at least 17 people have been killed by Israeli strikes in the last 24 hours. This is despite a ceasefire that's still meant to be in force between Israel, Beirut and Hezbollah. Around 150 people are still stuck on board a Dutch cruise ship after an outbreak of the deadly hantavirus. It's currently moored off Cap Verde in West Africa, which has refused to let it dock. Separatists in Alberta and Western Canada say more than 300,000 people have signed a petition calling for independence for the province. The group Stay Free Alberta claims this now passes the threshold for the number of signatures needed to trigger a referendum. And Doris Fisher, the co founder of Gap, has died at the age of 94, starting the company with her husband Don. She named it after the generation gap between parents and children. This is THE globalist. Stay tuned. Now following his speech at Davos, the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing the profile of his country and other middle sized nations by placing it at the heart of his speech at a major gathering of European political leaders in Armenia. Armenia. Once again, the prime minister Mark Carney suggested the world was moving away from a US Led model and towards a more rules based order with Europe at its heart. Well, I'm joined now by Paul Walde, his Europe correspondent at the Globe and Mail. Good morning. Welcome back, Paul.
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Paul Walde
Hi there.
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Emma Nelson
What did Mr. Carney say?
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Paul Walde
Well, I mean, he said much of the same things that he said in that speech in Davos earlier this year, not so much focusing on middle powers but, but really focusing on Europe and the relationship between Canada and Europe. And he talked about the international order being rebuilt from Europe. So I think it's a real signal on his part that Canada's focus right now, as much as it can anyway, is towards Europe as opposed to the
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Emma Nelson
U.S. and indeed, this is something that was demonstrated by the fact that he went to a European meeting?
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Paul Walde
Yeah, he did. He's the first non European to be invited to this meeting. It's a European political community meeting. It's a group that was set up really by a French president, Emmanuel Macron, right after the full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia. It's supposed to meet every couple of times a year. And it brings together the EU leaders and the UK And a few other countries, but they've never had a sort of non European country come. And so Carney's the first. And, you know, the Europeans seem very excited to have him there. I think Bayview Canada as not only kind of a balancing off of the US but also an important source potentially of energy, natural gas, critical minerals, and these kinds of things, too.
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Emma Nelson
I mean, he says that he positioned Canada as the most European, non European country. Are words to that effect. How accurate an assessment is that?
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Paul Walde
Well, he says that I'm not sure that many Canadians would feel that way. I think most Canadians figure that, yes, it's well worthwhile while to invest in, in a relationship with the EU and to broaden partnerships. There's now a defense partnership, defense industry partnership. There's already a trade agreement. So I think Canadians welcome that. But, you know, most of them are far more focused on what's going on in the US you just had yesterday the federal government having to announce a $1.5 billion aid package to assist the Canadian steel industry and others that have been really impacted by US Tariff tariffs. There's no sign that this trade negotiations between Canada, Mexico and the US Are going to get started anytime soon. And those are going to be very, very difficult. So I think, yes, this is great, but the focus back home is really on what's going on with the US and why are we still facing these huge tariffs.
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Emma Nelson
Just explain to us a little bit more about how this is being reacted to in Canada. I mean, his Eurocentric thinking is something which the rest of the world is quite happy about. Well, a slice of the world is happy about. But how Canadians perceive this pivot.
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Paul Walde
Well, I mean, again, I think that Canadians are welcome his efforts to try and broaden trade and political relationships, not just in Europe, but in Asia and other places. Because, you know, Canadians recognize that for a very long, long time we've been far too dependent on the U.S. you know, 70, 80% of our trade has been with the U.S. and that's been largely free of any tariff. So now with Trump slapping tariffs on, I think Canadians welcome, welcome his efforts to try and expand trade abroad and try and expand Canadians relationships beyond North America. But again, the reality is that Canada is very dependent on the US and that relationship has to get better. And while he spends so much time in Europe and he's made a lot of trips to Europe lately, I think Canadians are saying, all right, it's time to focus on the US and where's this trade deal and get these tariffs removed.
- [36:13]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. And so we have to sort of take it from the European point of view. I mean, how do they view Canada trying to push itself in that direction? I mean, is, is it's very flattering for Europe, isn't it, to say, well, actually we, we are still attractive to, to the likes of Canada?
- [36:30]
Paul Walde
It is. And I think the message that Carney brings is one that's welcomed in Europe. You know, he's been very critical in his way about the US and the way the US Is conducting its, its international affairs. He doesn't sort of directly single out Trump, but everybody kind of gets the message and he's articulated it very well, not only just in Davos, but in other meetings. I saw him in, in Oslo when he met Nordic leaders who also invited him there for the first time to a meeting of five Nordic leaders. And they were effusive in their praise about his message. And you know, he got the same message again at this gathering in Armenia. So I think that's, that's welcomed by Europeans. I will say that, you know, when, when push comes to shove, the relationship, the economic relationship between Canada and the EU is still relatively small. So I'm not sure how much sort of economic bank benefit Europe gets out of this. But again, if they can arrange some kind of natural gas, energy critical mineral deal, then that might, might work in the EU's benefit going forward.
- [37:24]
Emma Nelson
I mean, just looking at that, I mean, are we looking in 20, 30 times 30 years time when the dust settles on the post Trump era, will this have been the moment when Canada finally punched its own weight?
- [37:37]
Paul Walde
I think that's what Canadians are hoping for. But others might say, okay, yes, but this may all fade away way if the economy goes under because, because of US tariffs. So I think yes, this is something that Canadians will hopefully welcome and will hopefully say that yes, there'll be some real progress in this in a few years. But we've been down this road before, many, many times. Many, many prime ministers in Canada have talked a big game about diversifying Canada away from the US and it's never really happened. So maybe it'll happen this time and maybe that's the silver lining of Trump's tariffs. But the jury's out on whether it'll actually result in some real hard, you know, results.
- [38:14]
Emma Nelson
Paul Waldy, thank you so much for joining us on the program. That was the Europe correspondent for the Globe and Mail. You're listening to Monocle Radio. Now let's hear an update now on global tourism, both as the Northern Hemisphere braces for an unsteady season with rising fuel prices and airlines canceling flights because of the conflict in Iran, the World Travel and Tourism Council is holding its first summit in the Middle east since the start of the war. And joining me now from Cairo is Paul Charles, founder and CEO of the PC Agency. A very good morning to you, Paul. How is Cairo today?
- [38:56]
Paul Charles
Cairo is very noisy. Perfect indication of the movement and the vibrancy of the Middle East, I would say, but bright and sunny and certainly positive, massive today.
- [39:09]
Emma Nelson
It I mean, and but just to say the World Travel and Tourism Council has decided not to hold it in Cairo. It's having its be it's having its conference on a cruise liner.
- [39:20]
Paul Charles
That's right. It's the first ever leadership cruise by WTTC on the Suez Canal on a cruise ship. And essentially it's a gathering of ministers, former presidents and prime ministers as senior CEOs and leaders from across the industry to, I think, talk about the state of the sector at the moment and essentially look at the resilience of it and how it recovers from the Iran conflict. This clearly is a conflict that's quite uncertain at the moment. Yet there is still a lot of positivity about the resilience of the sector. Many people still want to travel both for business and for leisure. And that's the key talking point on the crucial cruise.
- [40:04]
Emma Nelson
Where are the elements of resilience that they are talking about?
- [40:08]
Paul Charles
Well, remarkably, domestic tourism is very strong in many countries. Now, you could argue that it's going to have a stronger year because some people want to not travel internationally. But domestic tourism is a key driver of economic growth in many countries. But even so, many people still want to travel abroad. You're seeing strong forward bookings in many parts of the world world from people who perhaps would have gone to the Middle east and are now diverting and choosing other destinations. The Caribbean, Canada, South America, Europe in particular are areas where, when you talk to hoteliers about their forward bookings, they're very, very strong indeed for this summer and at higher prices, partly because of inflation, but also because the demand is there. So definitely resilience in some pockets.
- [41:01]
Emma Nelson
How much Was it discussed, this idea that 2 million seats removed from flight schedules in the last couple of weeks? And that, you know, when you hear the likes of Lufthansa and British Airways cutting their schedules and when even if you know you're taxiing down the Runway at Heathrow Airport and you see three emirates, a 380s parked up, you know they're not at a stand, they're not departing, it's quite clear that the aviation industry at least is having to really, really work hard.
- [41:34]
Paul Charles
Yes, the aviation sector is in some turmoil at the moment because of the Middle east conflict. It's upended the usual rules of travel in terms of going through the Middle East, Although Emirates, for example, are almost back to full, their full network. But yes, airlines are finding it very, very difficult at the moment. They've got a doubling of the jet fuel price. Don't forget, 35% of their fixed cost are from jet fuel. So when that fuel price doubles, that's a substantial impact on their main cost base. And also, of course, consumers during a cost of living crisis are a little more wary about paying the sort of prices we've seen in terms of higher airfares recently. And there are more empty seats appearing, there's no doubt. Certainly anecdotally on my travels, I've seen many more empty seats appearing in recent weeks than previously. So the airlines are finding it tough. There's no one really making a profit at the moment. They are having to shoulder losses from this hopefully temporary Iran conflict and work out how they're going to get through it. But they're coming into their busiest period and hopeful that the forward bookings they're seeing hold up.
- [42:45]
Emma Nelson
How much do we see consolidation across the industry now? I mean, it was only over the weekend that the Spirit in the cut price airline in the United States packed up. That was the end of it. So are we seeing travel and tourism operators and aviation companies working together to try to make sure that they can shore up and muddle and work through this?
- [43:08]
Paul Charles
I don't think Spirit is the last that we will see now. Spirit had issues prior to the Iran conflict. It had been through bankruptcy twice in the last year anyway and was struggling to make any money at all. But there are small airlines or similar sized airlines to Spirit in the USA particularly, who may well go under in the coming days because of the price of jet fuel, which is causing them enormous pain. So I think we will see both some smaller players going under if this carries on for much longer, because they simply can't survive at jet fuel prices like this, as well as consolidation. This is the opportunity out of the crisis for. For CEOs to start talking to each other about what might be possible. Should airlines consolidate further? Yes, that is very much on the agenda of board meetings at the moment, because consolidation has a cycle in this sector. It comes around every few years, and we do see airlines wanting to get together where it makes sense. So I would expect some larger players to consolidate if this conflict consensus continues.
- [44:16]
Emma Nelson
Paul Charles, thank you so much for joining us on the program. Paul is founder and CEO of the PC Agency. You're listening to the Globalist.
- [44:29]
UBS Narrator
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- [45:06]
Emma Nelson
Time to touch on design and architecture news now. And who better to do so than with Tim Abrams, host of the Super Urbanism podcast. He finds himself in Belgium this morning, in Bruges. N Lest. Good morning, Tim. How's Bruges looking?
- [45:20]
Tim Abrams
Good morning. How are you doing?
- [45:22]
Emma Nelson
Very well, thank you. You're in Bruges, I take it?
- [45:25]
Tim Abrams
I am in Bruges. The weather is fair. I know you like to ask what the.
- [45:31]
Emma Nelson
Okay, so tell us something else about Bruges that's not weather related, then, to try and. To try and make things a little more interesting.
- [45:38]
Tim Abrams
Well, I'm here to see an amazing new art hall space called Brusque. It's got a rather strange acronym, but eventually that breaks down to a Bruges Municipal Art Space, which I suppose makes it clear why they've come up with a funky new name. It's a building which takes Bruges up a notch, full of beautiful old museums, full of canals, monasteries. But here we have a brand spanking steel and glass new museum which, set right in the middle of the city, takes it up a notch, turns Bruges into an international receiving house for exhibitions and creation space for museums from here as well.
- [46:23]
Emma Nelson
So explain a little bit about how it actually works within Bruges, because if you've ever been to Bruges, as you say, it is a very compact, very beautiful and very, very old, untouched town. So how do they manage to have such a daring project? For what is. It's a UNESCO World Heritage Site, isn't it?
- [46:42]
Tim Abrams
It is a UNESCO World Heritage Site. And the way they've done it is Bruges has always been a city in which its heritage condition has always sat strangely alongside the way in which it is still a living and breathing city. The architect Paul Robrechter designed a concert house which sits on the town square, which is three or four stories. It's already got a history of introducing modern architecture, but brusque actually sits very tightly and neatly the walled city within the brick buildings and acts as a kind of a facility to enable the rest of the museums, the 13 different museums which are owned by the municipality, to operate in a new way. It's very tightly designed. It's like a surgical insertion into the structure and it provides this amazing. And it's not just daring in terms of its kind of steel and glass material, it's also daring the fact that it creates these huge 40 meter spans with these northern lights. Northern lights being the way in which artists galleries like Manet had a gallery which had a big, long, high up northern light, which led loads of diffused light into it. And it's Robrecht and his partner Oliver Salliens idea that the material that Bruges has to show will be best shown in this natural light, also the light, the way which cathedrals are lit. So there's that the material that they will be showing has a kind of religious background. So there's this other analogy as well. I think it's going to be in. I haven't seen it yet. Talked to Paul, talked to Oliver and it sounds fantastic. The exhibitions that they've got coming up are really interesting. The way in which Flanders is being shown to be a key site within the network of trade that existed from 900 A.D. to the beginning of the Renaissance. As an exhibition which sees it as the culmination of the Silk Roads, which is opening at the moment as well.
- [48:46]
Emma Nelson
Tell me about the wider role that Belgium is now playing in design and architecture. I mean, we know that in fashion it has an enormous footprint and also as a design center, if you take somewhere like Antwerp, that absolutely shines. So what are we seeing in terms of a kind of a more general dynamism coming from Belgium?
- [49:06]
Tim Abrams
I've been looking into it quite a lot because there's another project, Canal in Brussels, which is going to be effectively bigger than Tate Modern, a contemporary art museum which is in the site of a Citroen showroom stroke factory in Brussels. And once you look into it, it's a case that Belgium has just taken longer to come to the kind of museum building spate that we saw in the early noughties across The UK and other parts of Europe. But because of Belgium's fractured political scene and its federal makeup, things have just taken a bit longer. And that's not necessarily a bad thing because what we're seeing is institutions which are arising now, taking advantage of seeing how other institutions have developed and grown. For example, Tate Modern began with this great spectacular Turbine hall. And the art there was very successful, but it quickly became clear that it wasn't able to really host more nuanced or different kinds of art, performance art, video art. There was no real space for it. Whereas you get this impression that Canal is beginning very much with these ideas already in place. It feels very much like a city within a city, as it were. There's a print room in it, there's a bakery in it, there's all these different kind of modes of possible art, artistic expression and the way in which different kinds of spaces. It's still got its spectacular moments. The three to four story front glazed atrium is very dynamic, but it's also learning the lessons that other institutions have been going through and kind of coming at it late and getting it right to late, I would say.
- [50:54]
Emma Nelson
And indeed it's not just the modern side of things. The Royal Museums of Fine Arts in Belgium, they've also had a major region as well.
- [51:01]
Tim Abrams
Yeah, that's a bit more of a question mark over that one. The Fantasy Eclipse Museum is closed and there will. And that's being. Some of that work's being reincorporated into the old masters. There's no real sense of an end date of when it might be completed, which is one of the things that you have to live with in Brussels and Belgium generally. Brussels only in February got itself a functioning executive for the first time in two years. So a lot of what happens happens without a sense of endpoint and horizon and relationship to the executive of a place that you expect in other places. But this means a lot of it, although expensive, although slow, can take place behind closed doors or moving things around and you get a. That may not be great for a civic budget, but it's really good for art. You get all these interesting. The rehang of the old museums to incorporate the stuff from the Fandius. The Equity Museum is fascinating. You also get towns like Hasselt who have just decided that they are going to put themselves on the map in terms of contemporary architecture. The Z33 is a beautifully designed multidisciplinary art center there and they have new commissions coming up for different space around the city. So it's focused very Much on local government, on city government, and that's the way that Belgium moves forward.
- [52:35]
Emma Nelson
Tim Abrams, host of the Super Urbanism podcast, thank you so much for joining us on the Globalist. Now, last week in Shanghai, Monocle brought together founders, investors and brand builders for its first ever Entrepreneurs Live conference at Monaco Radio's Pop up booth. During the event, our Asia editor, James Chambers caught up with Andrew Wu and Dean Chu of Sanjin, a radio manufacturer headquartered in Taiwan with production in mainland China. Andrew began by outlining the company's background.
- [53:16]
Andrew Wu
Sangene is a radio manufacturer. We've started in 1974 in Thailand, Taiwan. Our factory is still in Zhonghe to this day. We have moved our majority of our production line to China now. But then our, our main office is right now. The headquarters is actually still in Taipei right now where the majority of our engineers are still housed. So yeah, so radios, I'm talking am, fm, dab. Not just the ones you see in the car, but then the ones that you have at home. And it's not. And people always ask me this question, who still listens to the radio? Right. But honestly, there's still a really big, big niche of people that are actually still listening to the radio. Not just our parents, not just our grandparents, you know, tuning in, listening to great things, Monocle's radio stations being one of them.
- [54:03]
James Chambers
So yeah, and Dean, your job is as a bit of a radio evangelist to fly around the world, you know, developing new markets, new customers. Tell us, which countries are your biggest markets so far at the moment.
- [54:21]
Dean Chu
Well, the biggest market for Shenzhen right now is actually the European market. People actually still, you know, as they hop and they listen to radio a lot and then they have like, you know, little radio devices at home or driving around in the car. And also, and the second biggest is actually America, North America, like USA and Canada. As for new markets, we're heading, you know, put more efforts in the Asia market we're looking for into like doing Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines and you know, we already have a market in China, but we try to drive that as well.
- [54:58]
James Chambers
And in terms of where you see growth, as Andrew was saying, I mean, it was our, maybe our parents and our grandparents, they that used to turn on the wireless at home and listen to the news. I mean, I'm sure anyone does that these days. But your company is still here, you know, you're still developing new customers, but where are you finding growth?
- [55:18]
Dean Chu
You know, as a product category, we're actually developing a lot of different products to meet different, you know, user cases per Se for now the new arrivals are actually home decor. We have like o cabinets really luxury appreciation, premium style of quality and you know the ID design, the industry design actually brings a vintage look, a retro units and devices for home environment, for outdoor, for all kinds of that applications. We hope the end user which is the consumers are will be like valuable to have that in their life and as a part of a lifestyle.
- [55:57]
James Chambers
We're here in Shanghai at the entrepreneurs live throughout the day. There's been a lot of discussions in a lot of the panels about making in China. You guys make all your radios in mainland China. It's not something you hide, you're very proud of. I want to talk about this, the reputation of made in China and the quality. I mean tell us about it.
- [56:21]
Andrew Wu
Well, I have two sides so there's one end of things is that that we've like I originally said our factory was actually in Taiwan and when we moved to China we still ensured that all of our parts are still the best available parts that we can actually obtain. I'm talking about things from Germany, parts from Japan being assembled in China. Now obviously as time grows a lot of these suppliers, their businesses have ended. So we always still try to source the best thing possible. Right. And we've always took a of lot pride in that. Even if it's still assembled or created or made in China and like I said, the majority of our engineers are still housed in Taiwan. So I'm proudly saying that, you know, it's designed in Taiwan but then still perfectly crafted in China. Now the other end of things is I have noticed a lot of our European customers, sometimes they'll come to us and be like, oh, where are you guys made in or made from? And we'll say China and we'll see, we'll will detect a very slight hesitation like oh, China. But once they touch our product, that's when they're like really China. So we always want to differentiate, you know, like just like in any product made in any country there there are lower tier models but they're also very high tier production things. And that's something that we take again take pride in. And once you get your hands on our devices, I think it'll speak for itself.
- [57:43]
James Chambers
And and finally your engineers, all your R and D, they're back in Taipei at hq. I mean this is a very old technology. So what's the latest innovation in radio?
- [57:57]
Andrew Wu
So I think radios for our brand, we've been more on the responding end for quite some time. But in recent years as we've seen a huge uptick in the outdoor industry. We've heard some panelists as well talking about that. There's different waves of outdoor. So that is a realm that we're heading into. We are tying the emergency realm of things into preparedness, into being able to actually go out and take out a product to actually not just in emergency scenarios, but also to use in an outdoor leisure kind of way. So it's an all in one kind of solution. And we're really excited to launch that very soon, actually.
- [58:36]
Emma Nelson
Andrew Wu and Dean Chu speaking to our Asia editor, James Chambers at Monocle's Entrepreneurs Live conference in Shanghai. Luis last week. And that's all the time we have for today's programme. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers, Hassan Anderson, Laura Kramer and Desiree Bandley. Our researcher was Josefina Gomez and our studio manager was Lily Austin. After the headlines, more music's on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London and the Globalist is back at the same time tomorrow. Join me for that if you can, but for now, from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thank you very much for listening. SA.
- [59:40]
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