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- [00:04]
UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
- [00:38]
Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on the 5th of January, 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, we were prepared to do a second strike if we ate it.
- [01:18]
UBS Narrator
We're totally prepared. But that's.
- [01:20]
Andrew Muller
We're still prepared.
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Emma Nelson
That's off the table now.
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John Lee
No, it's not.
- [01:23]
Emma Nelson
If they don't behave, we will do a second strike.
- [01:25]
Hendel Hento
Well, you did that.
- [01:26]
Emma Nelson
We assess a remarkable weekend during which the United States captures the Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and flies him to face criminal charges in the United States. And then Donald Trump pledges to run the country. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, how will a state visit to China by South Korea's president foster relations with Beijing? Plus the papers and why the world should be looking to its working wardrobe at the start of 2026. That's all coming up on the Globalist, live from London. Seizing the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, and flying him to face criminal charges in the US Was not enough for Donald Trump this weekend. He wants America to run the country now. How he plans to do so is anyone's guess. But Mr. Trump has introduced a new stance, the so called Dunro Doctrine, that American dominance in the Western hemisphere will never be questioned again. In a moment, I'll be joined by Antonio Sampao, who's a Latin America security expert and Monocle's own correspondent in Seattle, Gregory Scruggs, will join us as well. But first, let's hear from Monocle's Andrew Muller.
- [02:38]
Andrew Muller
Gunboat diplomacy is nothing new. The dispatching of an intimidating armada to loom menacingly off the coast of one's adversaries has been going on at least since the Athenian empire sent triremes to put the squeeze on the Delian League. Gunboat diplomacy is not even new to Venezuela. It was on the receiving end of a naval blockade by France, Germany and the UK in 1902-1903. And something similar from the Dutch in 1908 when the US Navy began forming up in the Caribbean. In the second half of 2025, it looked an endeavour of sort. If it wasn't clear why the United States suddenly felt it necessary to pressurise the undeniably ghastly regime of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, it was clear that the US was committed to the bit, even sending the aircraft carrier strike group attached to the USS Gerald R. Ford, a ship which by itself fields a substantially larger contingent of combat aircraft than Venezuela entire. In the event, the payoff to the build up was more akin to the US invasion of Panama in 1989 that was undertaken to capture the resident dictator, General Manuel Noriega, a former CIA asset turned pestilential liability. As US paratroopers descended, Noriega holed up in Panama City's Vatican embassy, where he was berated into surrender by chuckling American soldiers playing heavy metal tunes at deafening volume. The Venezuela operation appears to have gone more smoothly than that appears indeed to have gone so precisely to plan that Maduro should be harbouring suspicions about his former colleagues. Maduro and his wife, Celia Flores, were swiftly seized and exfiltrated, and he could now be tried on the charges on which he was indicted in the Southern District Court of New York in 2020, or on New charges also naming his wife and son, among others. Noriega is again the obvious precedent. He ended up serving time in the United States, France and back home in Panama. Noriega may also prove a useful marker when it comes to assessing what this will all mean more broadly, which may be not much. Then, as now, the finger steepling foreign policy sage cohort went into hyperdrive about shifting spheres of influence, a revival of the Monroe Doctrine, a new world order, etc. But all that actually happened was that the US installed as President Guillermo Andara, who actually had won the 1989 election, that Noriega was ignoring. The world continued turning, and though Endara was far from perfect, he was a vast improvement. The analogy holds pretty well here. Maduro is, as Noriega was, an inveterate election rigger. The US under President Joe Biden was among the countries which not only refused to recognise Maduro's victory in Venezuela's presidential election of 2020, but acknowledged his opponent, former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez, as the rightful president elect. Gonzalez is presumably still available, ditto opposition figurehead Maria Corinna Machado, whose politics are not a million miles from those of US President Donald Trump and who, and this cannot be altogether discounted as an animating factor of the weekend's events, dedicated the Nobel Peace Prize she won last year to President Trump. As of this recording, Trump seems keener on a less disruptive transition, suggesting willingness to work with Maduro's vice president, Delsy Rodriguez, so long as she does what she's told. She has issued pro forma statements of defiance, but the offer of power is often persuasive. But Trump has his self glorifying triumph and his television spectacle. And we have a lifetime's evidence that this is all he ever wants until he wants the next one. Listeners are invited to recall that it is only a week and a half since the United States bombed Nigeria. For Monocle Radio, I'm Andrew Muller.
- [07:27]
Emma Nelson
Andrew, thank you for that. And listening to that in the studio is Antonio Sampaio, who's the Latin America security expert. Good morning to you, Antonio. And down the line from Seattle is Monocle's own correspondent, Gregory Scruggs. Good evening, Greg. Greg, good evening, Emma, Good to have you with us. Antonio, if I could just begin with you. Andrew mentioned less disruptive transitions, which is the idea that effectively that if Venezuela's interim leader, Delsey Rodriguez does what she is told, then, well, who knows what is going to happen. She has already invited Donald Trump to collaborate. She's already given a message of consist. But there is a sense that no one really knows who's going to be controlling Venezuela.
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Antonio Sampaio
Yeah, it's a completely new way of doing politics, of doing foreign policy. Andrew in his comment said that gunboat diplomacy is nothing new, and I agree with that. But what is new, I think in this case is first intervening in a country that is because of the drug trafficking to the United States and the whole armada that has been in the Caribbean, interpreting this drug trafficking as a direct threat of a military nature. And then second, promising to run the country through the threat of special ops interventions and direct targeted strikes against leaders, heads of state of other countries. I think that is a qualitatively different situation altogether. I think that the strike strikes that the US did, for instance, earlier during the Trump administration against Iran, at least Iran, we know that has been a long standing rivalry and intervention and covert actions against United States interests. Whereas in Venezuela, it's a little bit different. It's a country that has, of course, a lot of drug trafficking going on towards the United States, but the military threat is completely indirect. So this Don Row doctrine I think is a qualitatively different sort of political foreign policy interventionism. I'm not sure it's going to be as undisruptive or as peaceful as Donald Trump seems to think it would be. And he himself, the Day after saying that Dulcie Rodriguez, the new the interim president now seemed to be accepting his commands. The next day in an interview to the Atlantic, said that she has to do so or. Or else, or her fate might be worse than Maduro. So it's a thinly veiled threat of actually doing something extremely serious against her as well.
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Emma Nelson
Greg, coming to you, the fact remains is that for quite a while now, we've heard of Donald Trump talking of territorial expansion. We can think of Panama, we can think of Greenland, we can even think of Canada to a certain degree. Venezuela's different here now, isn't it?
- [10:35]
Gregory Scruggs
Well, what Venezuela represents is that rhetoric actually taking the form of action. Right. So for the last year, there's been a lot of speculation how much of this is posturing, this sort of admiration of the US's imperial era, the late 19th, early 20th century. Trump is fond of mentioning William McKinley as his favorite president. Well, McKinley's the one who was president when the US annexed, you know, briefly fought a war in Cuba against Spain, annexed Puerto Rico, acquired Hawaii. So the idea that territory expansion is somehow this, like, almost like invigorating force in American history. And it really did seem to be a lot of rhetoric. Right. Nobody took it, I don't know, too seriously around Panama or Greenland, much less Canada. This is action, right? I mean, there are not boots on the ground. Let's be clear, this is not an annexation of Venezuela, but it is a very significant escalation of this notion that has gone from sort of the ideological corridors of the right to actual policymaking in Washington.
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Emma Nelson
And just looking at that, if you are in South America as a security expert, Antonio, who's wondering that they're next?
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Antonio Sampaio
Well, certainly the most obvious threat or target would be, and Trump himself said that in his very disruptive, very interesting press conference, that Colombia President Gustavo Petro, who is long standing, you know, adversary, if you will, of Trump, in social media, in public comments, Trump accuses him because he is a leftist president in a country that has been a long standing ally of the United States against drug trafficking. So it's a weird situation. Now the United States is actively threatening Colombia, which has been one of its strongest allies in the region. And in the press conference, Trump said that actually the reporter sort of stoked the flames, but asked if Gustavo Pietro needed to watch his back. And Trump said, yes, I think he needs to watch his back. But I thought very interesting. And I actually tweeted it, something that I don't do very often these days in the Atlantic interview because I was wondering if this is a significant change, as I said, a qualitative change in, if not international order, in the regional order in the Americas. But actually, I think it's broader than that. It's not just in the Americas. In the Atlantic interview, he said that it's not about the Western Hemisphere. It's about individual countries and countries that do as they should or do not threaten the U.S. interests. And he also mentioned the Greenland issue. It might have just been the usual Trump rhetoric, but I don't think it's limited to the Americas. I don't think that leaders anywhere. I think this is something that disrupts the way of doing foreign policy and the way that people think about US Foreign policy for the medium, if not for the long term.
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Emma Nelson
What is the reaction in the United States, Greg, given the fact that presidents usually one year into their term, focus mainly on domestic issues such as the economy, the price of groceries, the way that people live. And yet all the focus now has been on huge scale operations in Venezuela where they go in and break things easily, as the Americans often are very good at doing. And now everybody is focusing on what's happening next there.
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Gregory Scruggs
Well, it's a big country and of course, it depends where you are and your political affiliation. I mean, there's the predictable fault lines, right? So the Democrats are aghast, appalled. The left more broadly is very opposed to, you know, unjustified uses of military force. There's, you know, perhaps on the far left some sympathy with Maduro and the Venezuelan regime, socialist regime. There is this kind of mixed sentiment, though. You know, Maduro, I mean, for sure, from mainstream view, not a very popular guy. You know, not many tears are being shed. You know, there are 8 million Venezuelans who fled the country. Many have settled in the United States. And as we've seen the images of them, especially those in South Florida, you know, cheering in the streets. So, and that is a community, at least those who are, who are citizens now of the U.S. you know, who are reliable voters for the Republican Party and really will be solidifying the support, you know, for the likes of Marco Rubio, let's say, if he runs in 2028.
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Emma Nelson
Rubio is key to this, isn't he, Greg?
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Gregory Scruggs
You know, I think Rubio is quickly proving himself to be the mastermind of the second Trump administration, really, much to everyone's surprise. I mean, if you recall just over a year ago when the Oval Office meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky took place, Rubio was parodied on Saturday Night Live. The comedy show as essentially being in a catatonic state, a complete non player character, as they say. And I think he's really proven to play the long game. And so, you know, I would slightly disagree with our guest Antonio, who is waking up this morning most quaking in their boots. I think it's Cuba's Miguel Diaz Canel and that the, you know, the leaders who are in theory, at risk under this sort of Don Roe doctrine are not necessarily the ones who are, I think, less likely the ones who are democratically elected in a change of power. I mean, Gustavo Petro will serve as term in office, inshallah, I suppose. And I think it's very, you know, likely that he will finish his term of office and leave when there is an election in Colombia. And the case in Venezuela, as is the case with Cuba, where I don't, you know, think there are nearly quite the same pretense to competitive elections is that elections have been held and there has not been a change in power. And the, the to charitably, I suppose, take the view of Rubio and his associates, there's a sense that diplomacy, the support for free elections, the sending election monitors, that sort of thing. It failed. Elections did not produce a change in government, and at least in their view, more serious action had to be taken.
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Emma Nelson
And your response to that, Antonio, given the fact that we've seen Cuba in the last few hours say that it lost 32 security personnel during the American raid and that it will declare a day of mourning for them?
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Antonio Sampaio
Yeah, no, I don't disagree with that at all. I think that the Cuban leader is definitely on the list and on the watch list. I think that the fact that Trump, I don't think it would be surprising of Trump to threaten the Cuban leader. And I think it's the reason I mentioned Colombia specifically is that first Trump mentioned him, Gustavo Petro, in his conference. And Colombia is by no means, you know, in Venezuela there is the veneer of elections, but Colombia is I don't think there's anyone, including the west, that doubts that Colombia is a full democracy. So the fact that Trump threatened Colombia, I think is indicative of this new age of American intervention through these sort of special operations. If he now threatens to conduct special operations against democratically elected governments, these I think the special operations raids, the night raids such as we saw in Venezuela, is a policy tool that really hasn't been deployed to this qualitative sort of condition yet. And I think that Trump is now using that to intervene and enforce policy changes even in democratically elected government. So I think that is a very significant move. But yes, there are many other leaders in the Americas that should be watchful.
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Emma Nelson
Antonio Zampaio, thank you for joining me in the studio. And my thanks also to Monocle's END correspondent Gregory Scruggs on the line. Seattle. You're listening to the Globalist. 1518 in Beijing, 7:18am here in London. Now, Beijing is playing host to the South Korean president Lee Jae Myung, who whose state visit to China began yesterday. The purpose of the trip, as you would expect, is to strengthen ties between the two countries. But South Korea's ever closer alliance with Japan coupled with Beijing's floundering relationship means that the politics also, as you would expect, are not straightforward. I'm joined now from Seoul by John Lee, editor of Korea Pro. Good afternoon, John.
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John Lee
Hello. Thanks for having me.
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Emma Nelson
So if you could just briefly recap the nature of relations between South Korea and China at the moment, because it is one of those tradition, those sort of well recognized stories that you have political adversaries who depend on each other for trade.
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John Lee
Well, in a word, the relationship is complicated. South Korea and China has not had the best of relations over the past decade and a lot of it has to do with military posturing, South Korea's agreement to host American anti missile systems in the country, along with China's retaliatory response. But that being said, China and South Korea neighbors for millennia and both countries need each other, especially as we have seen trade protectionism go up across the United States and the EU as well. And so with all of this going on, South Korea and China, well, there's not a whole lot of love lost between the two countries. But this meeting does reflect just how much that the countries really rely on each other.
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Emma Nelson
And in what way do these two nations rely on each other?
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John Lee
Well, right now, especially when it comes from South Korea, South Korea needs access to Chinese markets and crucially, supply chains. South Korea's largest exports are semiconductors and anything in the ICT sector, EV batteries, for example. And all of these things that South Korea manufactures and exports to other countries heavily relies on Chinese supply chains on Chinese rare earth metals. On Chinese not even rare earth metals, not even rare earth metals, but other minerals in general, other primary sources. And China has shown that it is very much willing to weaponize these kinds of supply chains. And so South Korea definitely needs China regarding that. But when it comes to China, China also requires South Korea because it requires South Korea's cooperation and technology access because right now the the China is trying to really ramp up its semiconductor productions to outpace and outmaneuver the United States. And it believes that south, and it believes that because South K is so dependent on Chinese supply chains, Beijing believes that it can cajole and also potentially strong arm South Korea and South Korean businesses to really try to see things in Beijing's way.
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Emma Nelson
And this cajoling comes at the time when you have, as you mentioned, a complicated geopolitical landscape to examine. Here we have Beijing's relationship with Japan getting worse and worse. And then we also have yesterday now North Korea firing multiple ballistic missiles off its east coast as a deliberate, well, some are saying it's a deliberate gesture to South Korea as the President heads to Beijing. So you have the neighbors all crystallizing the very, very difficult, complicated relationship between Seoul and Beijing.
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John Lee
The fact that East Asian countries have love hate relationships and more hate than love is, is that also goes back millennia. And as you've pointed out, China Japan relations are at an all time low right now. And it reflects well what South Korea China relations were like back in 2017. Back in 2017 when South Korea agreed to host those anti missile batteries that I mentioned earlier, that's when China really responded hard. And Chinese response to Japan, since Prime Minister Takaichi's REM about Taiwan really is a reflection of what we saw in 2017. And because of this China Japan spat that we're seeing at the moment, that also further incentivizes China to reach out a carrot, shall we say, to South Korea because it's really trying to distance South Korea from this partnership with the United States and Japan. We've seen South Korea really drifting toward the United States, especially under the past and this current government. And, and one of those big signals of course, is South Korea's ability to gain Donald Trump's consent, quote unquote, to acquire and develop its own nuclear powered submarine, which is also something that Beijing is very much aware of.
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Emma Nelson
John, briefly gaze into your short term crystal ball for us and tell us what do you think the main headline will be out of the meeting between these two men today?
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John Lee
The meeting is, well, the headlines write themselves. They're going to say the relations have been reset and they've got to base a lot of that on these memorandums of understanding that the two countries are going to sign with their businesses. Sk, Hyundai, Samsung, all of these companies are going to have a lot of partnership agreements with their Chinese counterparts. But the thing is these kinds of memorandums of understanding are reversible and they're designed to be reversible but that's not going to let the headlines get in the way.
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Emma Nelson
Speaking of headlines, we do have to touch on the Chinese reaction to what's been happening in Venezuela. It said it can't accept countries acting as world judge. How has the events South America gone.
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John Lee
Down regard in China? Well, the Beijing has obviously not taken well to what happened in Venezuela and that's because China has billions of dollars investments in in Venezuela, especially in the oil sector. And so the way that China responded in this way is understandable. Now when it comes to South Korea, on the other hand, it doesn't really have a lot of skin in the game. Even after Maduro had been captured by the American forces, it didn't really have any impact in global energy. And of course the United States is its principal and sole ally. South Korea is in no position to offend Donald Trump, who is famously known for having very thin skin. And so regarding this meeting, I'm sure that Xi Jinping is going to at least want to mention Venezuela in passing. But it's very doubtful that when Seoul produces its statements about the meeting that the South Korean foreign ministry will be really put much credence on this mentions of Venezuela during the meeting.
- [25:32]
Emma Nelson
John Lee from Korea Pro joining us on the line from Seoul. Thank you so much. Still to come on today's program, I.
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Andrew Muller
Guessed an eight and a half.
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Emma Nelson
Wow, that's very nice of you, but I don't think I need these. Miranda hired me. She knows what I look like.
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Andrew Muller
Do you?
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Emma Nelson
From the Devil Wears Prada there. But do we know what we should be wearing in the workplace in 2026? Stay with us on the global.
- [26:01]
UBS Narrator
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights. Deliver Day daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts.
- [26:28]
Vicky Price
UBS banking is our craft.
- [26:42]
Emma Nelson
07:26 Here in London. Let's continue with today's newspapers on the Globalist. Joining me, Letika Burke, writer at large for the Australian news publication the Night. Welcome. Happy New Year. How are you?
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UBS Narrator
Merry Christmas. Belatedly to you. Emma, so nice to see you.
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Emma Nelson
Gosh, doesn't that feel as if that ship sailed?
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UBS Narrator
Oh, I know, I know. We've already got a, you know, mini war going on. Well, let's only how many days? We're only five days into the New.
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Emma Nelson
Year Yeah, and we're already here and we are already looking at every single country's reaction to what has happened this weekend. Australia, we heard a little while ago, I mean, about South Korea having not having much skin in the game. China, obviously, a lot of investment into Venezuela. What's Australia's point of view?
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UBS Narrator
Well, look, what Trump has done really does put its allies in a very delicate position. We're seeing this with Europe, obviously, but Australia's pretty unique because it has a very expensive submarine acquisition program underway at the moment, which huge parts of the left already despise. America is also going to expand its military basing in enforced posture in Australia over the next couple of years, all as a hedge, of course, towards China, which is in Australia, strategic interest. So there is absolutely no way that the current government, which is centre left in Australia, wants to upset the Trump administration and they've gone to great lengths to shore up programs like Aukus, the submarine program, for example. So, naturally, as we've seen in many countries, the initial response was demands for the government to do something, to say something, to admonish President Trump to criticise the Americans. Most leaders have done what Anthony Albanese, the Prime Minister in Australia, has done, which is issue a very, very carefully worded statement full of monitoring.
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Emma Nelson
Everyone's busy monitoring. Fudged it a little. It's a. It's a very fudged statement. I mean, we're looking at the nightly coverage, so, yes, urging all parties to support dialogue and diplomacy in a statement. We are supporters of international law and it's for the Americans to make clear the legal basis of the steps taken over the weekend. That is what we see, seen it with Zakir Starmer here in the United Kingdom. The disappearance of Nicolas Maduro couldn't happen to a nicer man. However, the rule of law must be adhered to. But will Trump listen?
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UBS Narrator
Of course not. And why would he? He doesn't care what these small allies think or do or say. And he's cock a hoop at the moment, very jubilant and already eyeing next targets. So these demands for international law to be obeyed are not only falling on deaf ear, but they're also, I think, a little bit redundant, because really, the question is, well, how do these smaller allies operate in a world where international law is now no longer a norm that the United States is willing to uphold, if it ever was and is absolutely fragrantly breaching this? Where does that leave small allies? That's, I think, really more the question. I don't see that being asked a lot today. It's more a request in parts of the community to condemn President Trump. Having said that, there are huge parts of the, of, of voting blocs in Australia and also in the political system that support what President Trump has done because they've removed Maduro from power. So it's not completely binary to say that it's, it's total outright opposition.
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Emma Nelson
No. Okay, let's move on to. You're talking about smaller countries and we mentioned at the beginning of the program actually up other areas that Donald Trump has threatened expansion to Panama and Greenland. Article in the Financial Times has just dropped. The Danish Prime Minister, the formidable Mette Fredriksen, has basically told Trump to stop threatening Greenland because he has started to mention Greenland again. It bubbled up in the first couple of months of his term and then it just went away. And everybody assumed that this was just the cycle of Donald Trump's thoughts. But this seems to be something that he is now taking seriously again.
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UBS Narrator
I mean, I remember sitting at a very big flagship speech with the UK Foreign Secretary at the time, David Lammy, and we asked him about this in the press conference after Emma, and he essentially gave exactly the answer you just said, which is, well, you know, Donald Trump has this history of saying grandiose things and walking them back and he probably means about half of what he says. Well, actually, no, I think what we are now seeing in Trump 2.0 is that he means exactly what he says. And late last year he released the National Security Strategy, which was all about reviving a Monroe doctrine, which is a.k.a. american dominance and control of the Western hemisphere. And so that is exactly what happened on the weekend. Donald Trump has been speaking to the Atlantic in the United States and has said that Greenland could be next. He's also mused about taking on Cuba and reiterated again that they need the US Needs Greenland for its national security because, quote, there are too many Russian and Chinese ships around there. Now, that has prompted a very serious response from Mette Fredriksen, the Prime Minister of Denmark. On Sunday night, she issued to X a very, I think, strongly worded statement saying, I say this directly to the United States. It makes absolutely no sense to talk about the need for the US to take over Greenland. I would therefore strongly urge the US to stop threats against a historically close action. Keep in mind two things here. One, Denmark is part of NATO. We have never, ever had a situation inside NATO where one of the allies is threatening the other, geographically, quite strangely.
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Emma Nelson
Part of North America, but as you say, territorially Danish and therefore part of NATO.
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UBS Narrator
It is Also not wrong for Donald Trump to say that Greenland is vital to, to, you know, us, but also NATO's security in this context. I actually think there's a lot in this line from Fredrickson where she says there is absolutely no sense to talk about the need for the US to take over Greenland. I think you see a bit of room there for there is another way.
- [32:58]
Emma Nelson
It's incredible to think that in the last 48 hours, the way that the world is considering Donald Trump's approach has switched because of what's happened in Venezuela. Because we now see Donald Trump able to act incredibly, devastatingly militarily. Whereas up until this point, we've always thought, ah, if we make a deal with him, it will soothe him. And we know that the Danes have bought some Boeing military aircraft, could have bought some European ones, has chosen to buy an American one as an appeasement, some might argue. Do we think that the world has massively changed in the way that it must approach Trump now from now on?
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UBS Narrator
I think what the weekend showed once and for all is that Donald Trump is not restrained by the restrainers. And that's very important because we have been operating under the basis that the Make America Great Again movement, maga, or America first, meant no more US interventions overseas, no more military adventures, no more regime change, no more nation building. And Donald Trump over the weekend in his press conference said all of the things he'd been doing in Venezuela were absolutely America first and put America's interests first. And in this Atlantic article, he's actually gone on about saying regime is something that could be supported. He has told the reporter there that if the US Creates a system in Venezuela that's better than what's there, well, that's not bad. So you are seeing him slide into a very different sort of presidency that not only MAGA had been telling us he was, but also the world had been reacting to. And I think now what you see is, okay, there are no restraints on this guy. He has effectively one and a bit years left before he really is in lame duck territory. What could he do? And what will the people around him who have the current influence and power, who might not in the coming years, what will they be be poised to do and strike to do? I think it's very interesting that the threat on Greenland came via a post on social media from the wife of the Deputy Chief of Staff, Stephen Miller, who's basically the brains trust behind this whole Munro Doctrine revival in US Foreign policy.
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Emma Nelson
Finally, we will move away from Trump and his effect on the entire world. This weekend, let's centre on London and murderous intentions and actually murder solved.
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UBS Narrator
Yeah, I really loved this story. So this is in the Times. It's based on a bit of a BBC investigation by the very famous historian Lucy Worsley who thinks they have finally cracked the other Jack the Ripper era mystery. So it's not Jack the Ripper, but apparently at the same time I did not know this. Emma did you know, but there was another serial killer around in the late 1800s who would dismember bodies and torsos would, would wash up along the River Thames on the, on the banks and so they were found on various spots along the river and they've cracked what they think is, is who this was because There was a 15 year period of time where the murder stopped and a guy who ran boats along the river went to jail and he was quoted. They found an old quote where he told a woman, if you don't be quiet on this, I'll settle you like I've settled the other women. And the historians have gone back and they think they have absolutely cracked this case and found the identity of, of this killer.
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Emma Nelson
Something solved. Thank you so much, Latika Burke, for joining me in this studio. You're listening to the Globalist. Now here's a quick look at some of the other stories we're following today. Officials in Sweden, Switzerland say they've NOW identified all 40 victims of the New Year's Day fire in a bar in Kron, Montana. They were aged between 14 and 39 and came from seven different countries. Thousands of people attended a memorial service held earlier on Sunday. Latvian officials have boarded a ship after an undersea optic cable in the Baltic was damaged. Police say no arrests have been made and the crew were cooperating with the investigation. And the Iranian government has announced it will begin to pay every citizen around US$7 each month to help with the cost of l crisis. Protests sparked by the country's failing economy continued over the weekend. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It's 7:37 if you just switched on your radio here in the United Kingdom. 8:37 if you're listening in Zurich, let's have some economics news. I'm joined now by Vicky Price, economist and former joint head of the UK Government's economic service. Welcome back to Monocle Radio. Good morning. Good morning, Vicky.
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Vicky Price
Good morning.
- [37:55]
Emma Nelson
Let's talk about oil prices. They've fallen on the expectation that Washington's involvement in Venezuela will mean that there'll be more crude oil on the market.
- [38:04]
Vicky Price
Yes, Although, I mean, they're making that assumption. But in reality, yes, indeed, there have already been sanctions against Venezuelan oil in any case, and production had been reduced very significantly from, from its heights. But the idea that there's likely to be a huge amount of extra oil coming into the markets because of everything that's been happening over the weekend, the short term is, is a bit, sort of a bit of fantasy really. And yet the markets have clearly decided that that actually given that there is already forecast of, of oversupply of oil for 2026 and forecasts are for prices to be even lower than where they are now, both Brent and, and WTI too, the, they have taken it into account that indeed anything that's happening now in Venezuela would mean that the indications would be that there would be more oil in the future. But it is going to take quite some time because there's issues about infrastructure, issues of who actually does the work on the ground. I mean, given that the state oil company has now been using in particular Chevron to get some of that oil out, what will other firms which have had quite a lot of their assets expropriated a few decades ago, go going to do? Are they going to go back in and, and start trying to sort out the infrastructure which is pretty poor. There are no skills there, A lot has been lost. So it is going to take time. And yet the markets seem to have decided that this is perhaps the moment to realize that we're not going to have an energy crisis of the old type during 2026. But if anything, everyone will be helped by the fact that oil will be low. But other commodities of course are going up because of the geopolitical concerns that they all have, such as gold and silver, which have risen. Well, we'll see of course. I mean, stock markets as well have taken it in the stride and we've seen certainly Asian markets doing reasonably well overnight. But we have to wait and see what happens when the markets in the west open too.
- [40:11]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. I mean, just talk a little bit more. We mentioned Chevron a little while. Its operations are quite an involved and complicated one, aren't they? Because they are. They operate under license, do they? Bringing oil from Venezuelan waters? But they've been stuck since Thursday.
- [40:31]
Vicky Price
Well, they have because of course there have been sanctions, which really mean that, you know, nothing's been moving at all. So the production of it as well in oil, we have to bear in mind that it used to be something like 3 million barrels a day.
- [40:44]
Andrew Muller
A.
- [40:44]
Vicky Price
Few a decade ago or so, but now it's only just under 1 million barrels a day. And in the last few days it's gone down very, very significantly as halved. But of course there's been a blockade by the us. Nothing's been coming out. The interesting thing is that there have been sanctions against Venezuela as well. So Chevron has been working on the license, but also under guarantees by the US government, or if we wouldn't call them that, that it can actually export that, that oil. But that oil in Venezuela itself is of a certain type, which is termed by the experts as sort of heavy, heavy type oil, which means that it needs to have lots of imports of lighter oil in order to be mixed together before even be exported in any way that can be then used in refineries. So it's a very complicated issue to get the oil out anyway. And given all the extra things, of course, that have been happening, it's been making life difficult. And yet if you look at the Chevron stock price, it's been going up as a result of whatever's been happening, because one assumes that some of the, even the sort of restrictions and the sanctions that were there may well be lifted and their life would be easier. So for the moment they seem to be benefiting from that point of view. But whether they will benefit in terms of being able in the short term to extract a lot more or export a lot more is a question mark.
- [42:03]
Emma Nelson
Let's move to the European Union and to the UK's relationship with the EU. As such. The economic relations between the EU and the UK severed pretty comprehensively when Brexit happened. But it looks like in 2026 at least, the economy and economic ties will be discussed formally for the first time. Yes.
- [42:28]
Vicky Price
I mean, what we had was the Prime Minister giving quite a long interview which was broadcast on Sunday morning in the uk, which was of course focusing on what may happen in 2026 in terms of growth and his concerns about, you know, making sure that we actually see some of the benefits of all the changes which have been taking place since they took power in July20. Well, a lot of that growth that they had hoped to have happened has simply not happened. We had stagnation in the last, well in the second half of 2025, increasing unemployment and worries from businesses that they're not going to be investing because of extra costs. Well, there is no doubt that trading with the EU is a very important part of what businesses would like to do more of. There's a recent set happening anyway. The deal for leaving the EU needs to be renegotiated or will be looked at this year. But what is going on already is that there are a number of areas where there are attempts to get closer to the eu. Lots of people are asking for rejoining the Customs Union, which means that you have the same tariffs like everyone else in the eu. Well, some actually cabinet ministers are keen on that. The Prime Minister dismissed it, saying that that would mean that we have to give up on some the trade deals we've done since we left Brexit, including for example with the US and also since we left the eu, sorry, the deals with the US and the deals with India and others, Australia and so on. And we should try and get closer to the single market. Well, actually the real issue has always been among the BRICS ideas, the single market itself and the fact that you have to adapt to and adopt to loads of rules, regulations that exist in the eu. And that seems actually to be something which the Prime Minister is quite relaxed about. Wants to have mutual recognition of qualifications for accountants and so on. Wants to improve on regulation for exporting food and other agricultural products and also looking at exchange of people such as students rejoining the Erasmus program of studying abroad, young people coming in more easily. So there is quite a lot going on which he likes to see happening. Now look, there's a lot of talk, but not huge amount has happened except rejoining the Horizons science program. And that is interesting because what businesses are saying is yes, of course we'd like to have all that, but also we don't want the burden of having to fill in all sorts of forms and getting special dispensation because we'd be importing things from elsewhere and we have different tariffs on them. It's the rules of origin. So a lot of complications there. Trade has really suffered with the EU and he sees that now as a way of perhaps encouraging growth.
- [45:14]
Emma Nelson
Vicki Price, economist and former joint head of the UK Government's economic service. Thank you so much for joining us once again on the Globalist. You're listening to Monochrome Local Radio. It's what's at 1645 in Tokyo. 8:45am if you're listening in Zurich now, the love of incorporating wood into high rise buildings is nothing new. It is beautiful, it is breathable and in many cases it is sustainable. And Japan is embracing this trend as wood is re emerging as a green alternative to steel and concrete. Well, I'm joined now from Tokyo by a contributing writer for the Japan Times, Hendel Hento. A very good afternoon to you, Hendel.
- [46:00]
Hendel Hento
Good afternoon to You Emma. Thank you for having me.
- [46:02]
Emma Nelson
A pleasure. So where are we seeing this happening then?
- [46:06]
Hendel Hento
Well, I mean here in the, in the Tokyo area mainly. There is like one city right next to Tokyo called Yokohama, which is one of the second largest city in Japan. They have a wonderful building really made by Obayashi, which is like one of the largest contractors here. And they build this building called Port plus, which is a facility actually for their own staff. It's like a training and education facility. And this, the main thing about this building is like it's the first old timber fire resistant high rise building in Japan, right. So Obayashi made, they worked in, created like this new type of tinder which can withstand a blaze for up to three hours, which is a first in Japan. In a country like Japan, when we have earthquakes and we have fires that can happen after this is a game changer. So it's happening mostly in the Tokyo area, but not only.
- [47:08]
Emma Nelson
And what kind of differences does it actually make to people who live and work, work there?
- [47:15]
Hendel Hento
It makes a huge difference in the sense that up until now if you, you know, if you have lived in Japan or you come to Japan and you see like houses being built, most of them up to 90% are made of wood. So it's not for small single home, single family homes. It's not a huge difference because this has been been going on for a long time. But when it comes to high rise buildings, there is a huge push now in Japan for sustainability. Right. Concrete and steel are incredibly contaminant, right? Like the concrete industry by itself is like 8% of global emissions. Steel is like the same thing. So for the people commissioning these buildings, if they want to be part of this push for sustainability, they can actually now commission buildings like high rise buildings for whether it's like for living spaces or offices that are going to be much more sustainable for the people inside those buildings, it's actually a different matter because there have been scientific studies that prove that being in a wooden environment, especially when the wooden wood is visible, it's naked, it's not painted over, it's not made to look like something else. It's very beneficial for well being. Right. There is a practice here in Japan called Shinden yoku, which is like forest bathing, so to speak, where people go to the forest and immerse themselves in the forest. Because this kind of natural environment lowers stress, boosts your immune system relaxation. Well being, all of this and being inside an environment like this, when wood is all around you, you can see it, you can Feel it, you can smell it. Sometimes this is proven to have the same effects on people. So whether it's your office or your home, if you are in this type of environment, it's not only sustainable, but it's also very, very good for mental well being as well.
- [49:20]
Emma Nelson
It's also very quick to put up. But looking at the idea of sustainability, there are questions being raised, aren't there? Because we saw in 2020 the Tokyo Olympics, Kengo Kuma using wood for, from Old 47 prefectures for the beautiful, beautiful National Stadium. That has worked, that has stayed. But tell us about what's happening at the Expo.
- [49:43]
Hendel Hento
Yes, I was talking to Fiona, the Monocle bureau chief here in Tokyo about this. Just like a day or two ago, the ring, the World Expo in Osaka, all the pavilions, or most of the pavilions were encased by this wonderful structure which was certified as a world record as the largest wood or timber structure in the world. So this was made by Sou Fujimoto, which is one of the architects that is at the forefront of this movement here in Japan. And it was made with the traditional Japanese joinery, which is like the pieces are joined together without any sort of metal components, any sort of glue or anything. It's just pressure. Right. So he created this amazing structure. And now that the Expo is over, the authorities are actually thinking about dismantling the ring. Right. Instead of leaving it in place. So some of it is not so bad because some parts of it are supposed to go to the North Peninsula. We have a huge earthquake last year, a year ago, actually during the New Year's Day, to build new housing for the people who were displaced and things like that, which, you know, it's keeping with sustainability, it's a noble goal. But at the same time there is a growing movement of people calling, calling for the, you know, preserving the ring. There was, there was like a high school student who started a petition. There were like foreign diplomats who visited the Expo are also calling for it. So Fujimoto, the architect himself has said that it would be a waste to dismantle it. Right. And it should be kept as a symbol not only of what the World Expo was about, global unity, but also for sustainability. Right. So it would be honestly a waste to dismantle the whole thing.
- [51:38]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. And there is a fear that apparently up to 70 or even 80% of the, the structure could be used as firewood.
- [51:48]
Hendel Hento
Yes, that was actually a huge shock for people here. Right. Because when they mentioned the, you know, building housing for the people of the victims of the earthquake, etc. People were like, oh, okay. But like, after that they said, no, no. Most of the structure could be just made into wood chips for, you know, firewood. That was very hard to accept for a lot of people, I think. And the architect himself, as I mentioned, he has not been consulted much about all of this. So it's, you know, what Fiona mentioned before was like, just because building is made of wood, it doesn't mean that it's sustainable. You know, it depends how you manage it and what you do with it after.
- [52:26]
Emma Nelson
Handel Hento from the Japan Times, thank you so much for joining us on the Globalist.
- [52:34]
UBS Narrator
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- [53:22]
Emma Nelson
So check your calendars, everyone. It's the 5th of January, 2026. We're back in business from today after the Christmas break. So when you were setting out your clothes last night, what did you put out for your return to work? Well, if you fel yourself a little bit of a lost soul, take heart. Mark Wahrman is founder of luxury menswear brand Barnfield Customs. And Alistair Crute is owner of the sporting and travel luggage brand Kreutz England. And they are here to help. Good morning, gentlemen.
- [53:48]
Vicky Price
Morning.
- [53:49]
Andrew Muller
Morning, Emma.
- [53:49]
Emma Nelson
Mark first and then Alastair. What are you both wearing today?
- [53:54]
Andrew Muller
Well, I'm being on brand and I'm wearing one of our merino wool sweaters, of course.
- [53:59]
Emma Nelson
Wonderful. Delighted to hear it. And I'm assuming that is Mark. Alastair, how about you?
- [54:04]
Andrew Muller
I'm wearing one of my favourite brands, Universal Works.
- [54:07]
Emma Nelson
Excellent. Fine brand. Ok. And both of you, you clearly dressed up for the day.
- [54:14]
Andrew Muller
Well, probably because we're coming on here a bit, a little bit more than normal, but in production land, it's not quite as glamorous as out there at the shows, but certainly try to make an effort.
- [54:26]
Emma Nelson
Okay. Well, I'm delighted to hear that someone's making an effort this morning. Mark, tell us what. I mean, we, we've had menswear come back round on itself in the last couple of years, haven't we? Where everything fell to pieces when we went into Covid. And then suddenly the joyful return of a structured piece of clothing has come back. Are we now fully back in that place?
- [54:48]
John Lee
Well, I'd like to think so.
- [54:49]
Andrew Muller
I Think we're at the beginning of that movement still. You know, there was, still there was such a movement towards, towards comfort and, you know, talk about fashion moving in cycles. And I like to think of it like as pendulum swings. So there's definitely kind of a reaction against that now. And I think with more of us going back into the office, people are looking to look and to feel the part, I think.
- [55:13]
Emma Nelson
Alistair, what does that look like in terms of when people are coming to you? And your sporting and travel brand is amazing. You see things like field totes and cartridge bags, so they have a sort of a distinctive style to them. But are people coming in wanting, wanting to just, just step up a bit more?
- [55:30]
Andrew Muller
Well, as well as that sporting side, we do have our sort of leisure and business products which are probably more relevant. And a lot of our customers going back to the office are starting to use their document bags and, and things. But what we have noticed is in since COVID it's a little bit more relaxed where business people don't feel like they've got to be quite as formal. So there might be a lot more people using backp rather than traditional document bags because they're maybe going to the gym after the office or they're doing part days in the office. So the bags have got to be more versatile than just purely going for a meeting.
- [56:11]
Emma Nelson
And Mark, when you see this, this return in terms of the relaxed styling, are we seeing. I mean, before COVID things were, you know, we dressed up and dare I say it, we were quite physically constricted by what we were wearing. How has a relaxed style translated into menswear without it actually appearing to be too sloppy, Dare I say?
- [56:34]
Andrew Muller
I think it comes down to the fabrics and the quality of the fabrics. I think if you're, if you're wearing anything that's, that's made out of a, you know, a structured melt and wool that can still be more relaxed and more loose. But the, the actual quality of the fabric kind of speaks volumes as to how it appears when it's actually on.
- [56:53]
Emma Nelson
You and Alastair, what should we all be taking? So if we are getting up this morning and need to sort of have a, a bit of a spring in our step and look a little bit dapper. What are you suggesting that we should do to not necessarily reinvent ourselves, but to make sure that 2026 is embraced in the most stylish manner?
- [57:10]
Andrew Muller
I think the same as Max just said, there's some really nice traditional fabrics that are not quite as old fashioned as they Used to be. So we tend to use cottons and vegetable tanned leathers but they're not the really old fashioned looking things. So you've got a nice document, document bag made by a nice wax cotton. It doesn't have to look like it's come from the country, it's a little bit more stylish. So nice document bag or a rucksack that isn't sort of like everything else you see in the high street that looks a little bit more, you know, traditional but it's still, you know, it's got that modern sort of feel to it and it, it's got everything in it. You know, you, you, you can get all your modern gadgets and gizmos in without, you know, having to compromise and go really, really going great to you.
- [58:00]
Emma Nelson
Mark, at Barnfield. If you were pulling yourself together to step out of the, out of the house this morning, what was the one thing that you should do to just maybe introduce something a little bit different for 2026?
- [58:13]
Andrew Muller
Well, I don't know about different but being how cold it is at the moment, you know, an overcoat, we've got a pea coat that's you know, the double, double lined with a thick melton wool. You know, it's something that's going to keep you clothing. For me it's just as much about how it makes you feel as how.
- [58:33]
John Lee
The form and the function.
- [58:35]
Andrew Muller
So if you're going back into the.
- [58:36]
John Lee
Office and you've got some tough meetings ahead of you, feeling confident in what.
- [58:41]
Hendel Hento
You'Re wearing is probably really important.
- [58:43]
Emma Nelson
And a one word answer from both of you. Mark, first, have we killed off trainers once and for all?
- [58:49]
Andrew Muller
I hope so.
- [58:50]
Emma Nelson
Okay. Alastair, how about you?
- [58:52]
Andrew Muller
Yes, I don't mind the leather trainers but definitely I hope the traditional style one's gone out of the office.
- [58:58]
Emma Nelson
Delighted to hear it. Mark Warman, founder of luxury menswear brand Barnfield customs and Alistair Crute, owner of sporting and travel luggage brand Crutz England. Both smartly dressed gentlemen stepping out into 2026. Thank you so much for joining me on the program. And that's all the time we have for today's show. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the product producers Chris Chermack and Tom Webb. Our studio manager was Christy o' Grady with editing assistance from Lily Austin. After the headlines. More music on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London. The globalist is back tomorrow. For now from me, Emma Nelson. Goodbye. Thank you very much for listening.
- [59:38]
UBS Narrator
With ubs. You have a truly global partner. Incorporating new technology, technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.