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- [00:04]
UBS Narrator
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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 6th April 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, a foul mouthed outburst from the US President. He issues new threats to Iran if it won't open the Straits of Hormuz. Iran replies with threats of retaliation.
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Simon Brook
Iran's reaction would be one of reciprocating any such attack.
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Emma Nelson
Also ahead in the next 60 minutes,
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Tara Kangalu
no human eyes previously had seen this crater until today when we were privileged
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Vicki Price
enough to see it. So we can't wait to share more
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Dame Rachel Whiteread
when we get closer to the moon.
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Emma Nelson
Traveling further than any human being in history, the far side of the moon is now visible to the NASA crew of Artemis 2 too. We'll profile Myanmar's new president, the man who led the military coup five years ago. Plus Monday's papers too. That's all coming up on the Globalist live from London. Happy Easter Monday, everybody. In just a moment, we'll be talking about Iran, but first, let's have a look at what else is happening in today's news. A major oil export terminal has been hit in a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk. South Korea's president has expressed regret to North Korea after a drone incursion into the north was carried out without government approval. And Hungary and Serbia say they have foiled an attempt to blow up a key pipeline that carries Russian gas. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, Donald Trump's latest message to Iran last night was laden with expletives and threats. Posting on his Truth social platform, he threatened Iran to reopen the Straits of Hormuz, otherwise the country will be living in hell with power plants and bridges blown up. President Trump's extraordinary outburst has been met with ridicule by Tehran and threats of retaliation. To tell us more, I'm here. I'm joined by Tara Kangalu, who's journalist for the NBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, as well as the author of the heartbeat of Iran. Good morning, Tara.
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Tara Kangalu
Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
Just explain to us, if you could summarize in as clean a language as possible what Donald Trump said yesterday.
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Tara Kangalu
Well, the commander in chief of the United States essentially threatened the Iranians in some explicit language at a time that he last week foregoed his interest in the Strait of Hormuz. But now he's making it all about that open that strait or all else, using a reference to Allah, which I found very interesting on Easter Sunday at a time that he knows he's speaking to an ideologically charged, devout regime, all the while to Gulf countries, majority Muslim countries as well. So colorful language to say the least. But what essentially is important to note with that reference to the bridge and other civilian infrastructures, including the power plant? Let's just recap and quickly bring our listeners up to speed, because the first bridge that was hit In Iran, that B1 bridge outside of Tehran in Karaj, which was the largest and tallest bridge in Iran and quite frankly one of the largest in the Middle east, was hit. And the president took claim for that. It was for civilian use, according to Iranians, of course, but a major blow. And on top of that, again, as we hear these threats on civilian infrastructures, let's not forget what happened on the first day of the war, Emma, with that strike on the school in Minaab. It was a school attended by boys and girls in this southern town in the one of the southern provinces in Iran that many news outlets and investigations concluded that was with a Tomahawk missile. In fact, the president himself and his administration commented on it, saying, oh, it was Iran's Tomahawk. But of course, I think everyone knows that it's only the United States that has the Tomahawk. Suffice it to say the Iranian infrastructures, whether it be petrochemical plants in Marsha, the nuclear power plant in Bushehr used for civilian purposes, many historic sites across the country, various universities have took the blow. So harsh rhetorics at a critical time when many are just presuming that things would only escalate.
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Emma Nelson
Let's just focus on the exact intention of Donald Trump, because if he is saying that he is going to send U.S. missiles to target power plant, power plants and bridges, Legal experts are saying that this is a president who is happy to engage in a war crime.
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Tara Kangalu
History is always our friend. And if we look at history, we can see that previous war crimes have been committed in various wars and conflicts. So while we cannot at this moment clarify the intent of the president, we can most certainly going back to history understand that such events have taken place previously. I would add to this, given the context of of Iran, we all know that bombs and missiles and strikes are not going to change ideology. The regime in Iran has in fact been further emboldened and evolved into perhaps one of its most hardline forms, all to the detriment of the Iranian people. And again, when you hit the house, the roof is going to fall on everyone. It's not going to be selective and choose who is the bad guy and who's the good guy. So again, over a month into this conflict, we are going to, you know, only see events that would be detrimental to a population that is living in a collapsed economy. And again, one, it's important to note that this is a coalition effort between the United States and Israel. So again, going back to history and the precedents set by those involved tells us a lot.
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Emma Nelson
Looking at what Iran could do next, it has already managed to fundamentally change the course or the direction of oil being moved around the world. And it has managed to destabilize vast swathes, vast pockets of the Middle east simply by targeting various bits of Kuwaiti, Bahraini, UAE infrastructure. You name has warned that its retaliation will be devastating and widespread. It doesn't have the brute force of the Americans and the Israelis, but it clearly has the potential to make this war last as long as it wish.
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Tara Kangalu
Indeed. And I think one of the greatest arsenals that Iranian regime has had is the disruption that they've created more than anything else. And of course that's having a huge impact on Gulf countries that are absorbing perhaps the most blow, unfortunately. And the retaliation is again causing a lot of destruction. Also, mind you that the Iranian regime is there for its survival. And the strategy they've pursued, aside from disruption, is endurance and exhausting the adversary, in this case the United States. And mind you, Emma, that when we talk about the United States and Israeli tax is in no way, shape or form exonerating the Iranian regime. And quite frankly, what they've been doing to the Iranian people so that, you know, these two should be separated. But as far as their control over the Strait of Hormuz is incredible. I mean, they're making twice the money that they were before for their oil exports. And their argument for the regime of Iran is that the strait is open to our friends, not our adversaries. And in ways they've created a little toll booth in Larak island so that they're charging countries to who want to have their vessels go through. And they're uniquely and individually speaking with various countries and making bespoke deals, all the while charging, I'm told, by sources in cryptocurrency and and yuan. And again, adding to this complicated story already, remember that China has long been Iran's benefactor. It buys more close to 80% of Iran's oil that's under sanction on ghost vessels. It goes through to China. And so they're kept afloat by both China, to some extent, Russia, all the while having created this major disruption. And I think this goes back to why Donald Trump is so frustrated, because we know that the president is someone who wants to call the shots. But right now it seems that the Iranian regime, as chaotic as they've made it in the region, are the ones calling the shots.
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Emma Nelson
Let's look elsewhere within this conflict because what we've seen in the last couple of days, the rhetoric coming from Donald Trump and indeed the rescue of an American F15 pilot, has arguably distracted from some of the more serious other elements of the Middle east conflict. Let's focus briefly on Lebanon, if we may. It's there is a sense that Israel is obviously taking greater control of southern Lebanon. One wonders whether this is on a more permanent footing because we have more than a million people displaced now.
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Tara Kangalu
Absolutely. And again, let's go back to history and what happened in the 80s. Israel, for long, you know, was present in the south. Some argue that that was why Hezbollah was even created. And so in the limited time that we have, I would just sum this by saying so many in Lebanon are concerned that, again, history might repeat itself. And could it be that Israel would, in fact, permanently annex southern Lebanon? Again, experts and reporters covering this closely have been saying that settlers in northern Israel are very much eyeing these areas. Also, mind you, another development overnight, the fact that the Syrian border with Lebanon has closed down. Of course, the officials are saying for security purposes, but this would also challenge the humanitarian crisis that we have. And again, history is changing course. For the longest time, millions, or rather hundreds of thousands, let's put it that way, of Syrians were flooding into Lebanon from that border. And now the contrary, and that border is closed. I've spent a lot of time in Lebanon. It's a small country, as you know of, a little close to 6 million. And when you have 1 million of that population displaced, that's a catastrophe at a time that, again, similar to Iran, different in geography and size. Of course, Lebanon is suffering also from a collapsed economy. So this is perhaps one of the most precarious and dire humanitarian crises that we need to pay attention to. All the while, the Lebanese government has been perhaps not as robust as one would want to see them in bringing matters to an end. But of course, they're at a challenging position itself. We know that they intend to negotiate to what extent they can do that with Israel, one has to see. But of course, this idea of disarming Hezbollah, which, Emma, was something that was under underway rather before the conflict started, is most likely not happening anytime soon. Israel is forced full force in its attempts in Lebanon once again to the detriment of the Lebanese people who've been suffering for many years.
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Emma Nelson
Tara Kangalu, journalist for NBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, thank you so much for joining us. On Monocle Radio, you're listening to the Global. 7:12 here in London. No idea what time it is on the moon, but that's what we're talking about now because three days after they blasted out of the Earth's orbit, the crew of Artemis 2 are reaching the dark side of the moon today, taking the four astronauts further from planet Earth than humans have ever traveled before. Getting very excited is Tira Shubert, fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society and ambassador for the Science Museum. Tira, welcome back to Monocle Radio. How excited are you?
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Tira Shubert
Good morning, Emma. I'm really excited because today, just while we're speaking, the Artemis spacecraft is entering the lunar sphere of influence, which means that the gravity from the moon is now their strongest force. And later on today, they're going to be flying past, well, not the dark side of the moon, but the far side of the moon because you can see it and because they're going to be 4,000 miles above it, as opposed to the 70 miles that the Apollo astronauts were, they're going to be able to see features that we've never seen before with the human eye.
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Emma Nelson
Okay, so let's go through these things bit by bit. We'll talk about the moon in a minute. But this idea of the way that lunar gravity actually, it then takes over the trajectory of the mission, doesn't it? It becomes the most important force before it flings it back to Earth.
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Tira Shubert
Absolutely. And this allows you to do this wonderful thing called a free return trajectory because it slingshots them round, as you say, with the gravity, and then, and then as they head back in the other direction, then the Earth's gravity grabs them. So it saves on fuel, it makes it a bit more efficient, and in
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Emma Nelson
a very sort of like, simple way. How do they work this stuff out?
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Tira Shubert
Well, and if you did physics way back when at school, you would have learned A little bit more, a little bit about these kind of trajectories. And Isaac Newton, who wrote Principia, what was that, 300 years ago? He was right.
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Emma Nelson
So we're basically using stuff that Isaac Newton wrote down to get these four humans around the Moon.
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Tira Shubert
We are indeed. And that's magical, and it shows the power of science. But they're going to be doing some. But still they're dealing with a broken toilet, despite all this wonderful technology. But they're getting ready to do Moon observations later on. And there's. Because they can see parts of the Moon and some of the huge craters that we've never observed with the human eye, they are taking turns viewing because the window that they're going to be able to see through isn't that big. So only two of them can view, two of the four astronauts can view at any given time. So they are going to be taking turns doing an hour, an hour and then an hour, trading back and forth. And they have a checklist that the lunar geologists have given them, things that they want them to feed back on.
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Emma Nelson
Tell us what they're actually looking for here, because as you said, we have seen the other side of the Moon. But the naked eye, that makes a difference, does it?
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Tira Shubert
Number one, the naked eye, they're able to distinguish many more features because the far side of the Moon is rougher, it's more cratered and it's more ancient. And it has fantastic giant features because giant features, for example, like the Oriental Basin, which is a huge concentric basin that is massive. And then the South Pole Aitken, which is a giant impact crater, and it's one of the largest in the solar system. So they're going to learn a lot more about planetary science, number one. But they're also going to have a real treat later on in about 14 hours, in which they are going on the far side of the Moon, they're going to be out of contact with Mission control for about 40 minutes. It's going to happen just before midnight, London time. They're going to have 40 minutes when they don't have to deal with NASA. Now, there's a live feed going on the whole time, which I would urge anyone to dip into. It's on NASA's fantastic social media, and they're always being watched. You can watch them the whole time and you can listen to them the whole time, but they will have some quiet time. And I think they're going to love that, because previous astronauts in the Apollo era really enjoyed that space to Themselves
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Emma Nelson
that sort of one on one experience without a space.
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Tira Shubert
They have one on one experiences and they've already started doing a few selfies, which again is something that they weren't able to do in the Apollo era with their big cameras. And there was a lovely moment and I just dipped in randomly when they were sorting out their emergency suits and Christina Cook was helping read instructions out to their emergency suit kit up that they were doing and something caught her eye and she just laughed so much and threw her head back and clapped her hands. You know, it was just a wonderful human moment. Grabbed the camera, took a photograph of something off camera and then handed it around to all the astronauts and they looked at it and laughed. So it just was something that you felt you could relate to.
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Emma Nelson
What's amazing here is you're relating entirely human experiences here that, you know, taking selfies, having that moment when you have that, that absence of contact from NASA. I mean, you work down at the Science Museum here in London, which is one of the finest institutions on Earth when it comes to educating everybody about science in the most engaging and accessible way. You know, just talking about having, you know, the 17th century, Isaac Newton being the man who originally helped us work out what's going to propel Artemis 2 back to the United Kingdom, but back to Earth. What is it that people are learning now when you're seeing them in the Science Museum? Are they getting excited by what's happening here? Are they wanting to find out who Isaac Newton was?
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Tira Shubert
Yes, and I was there on Friday, Easter Friday, and there was a real buzz around the Space Gallery and a lot of kids that were very excited. And the Apollo era created so many scientists. You'll talk to people that work in the space industry or just ordinary people like us who don't necessarily work in the space industry, but they were inspired because of the things that happen in the Apollo era. And some of the comments on the NASA feed have been really inspiring. And my favorite one that I looked at was somebody posting, it's cool to see humans doing something positive with our existence rather than war with each other. More of this, please.
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Emma Nelson
Tyres Shubert, Fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society and Ambassador for the Science Museum here in London. Thank you so much for joining on the programme.
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Dame Rachel Whiteread
Still to come, I have a very broad practice. You know, I work with lots of different materials, I take a lot of photographs. I felt it was important to try and represent all those different things that I do.
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Emma Nelson
Dame Rachel White Reed tells us about her four decade career of making beautiful art. Stay tuned.
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UBS Narrator
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
Let's continue now as today's newspapers. Joining me is Simon Brook, journalist and communications consultant, regular voice around the microphone. Hello, Simon, how are you doing?
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Simon Brook
Good morning. Very well, thank you. How are you?
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Emma Nelson
Happy Easter. Do we still say Happy Easter and Easter Monday?
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Simon Brook
I think we can, can't we? Yeah, let's keep the mood going.
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Emma Nelson
I think we may just have done right now. Right, what's in the papers?
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Simon Brook
Yes. So a lot of coverage in the European media this morning about the claim made by the Serbian president yesterday that Serbia's security forces have found what's described as an explosive of devastating power near a gas pipeline connecting Serbia with Hungary. Meanwhile, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban has said on X that he has convened an emergency defence council after speaking to his Serbian counterpart. And I think this is interesting because as a lot of the media is pointing out this morning, this comes just a week before Hungarians are due to vote in an important parliamentary election in which it looks like Viktor Orban's 16 year hold on power is facing an unprecedented challenge. And of course, Orban and the Serbian president are Europe's strongest fans of Vladimir Putin. And this false flag tactic is very much out of Vladimir Putin's playbook, of course. So obviously Orban's rival, Peter Magyar has expressed criticism, criticism and some considerable skepticism about this claim. But it'll be interesting to see what effect it has on the election next weekend.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed, because we have, it's a very simple setup. We have two backpacks with inverted commas, large packets of explosives left a few hundred meters from the Balkan Stream pipeline, from the Turkstream pipeline.
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Vicki Price
The.
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Emma Nelson
This is a moment that Orban could see to delay or even cancel the elections as a moment of national emergency.
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Simon Brook
Yeah, very much. And as quite a few of the news outlets have pointed out this morning, Orban has made a big thing of protecting Hungary against threats during this Russia, how he sees it, a war between Russia and Ukraine. He said that it's a big risk for the country and he is best placed to handle this risk. Whereas Peter Magyar and his party have said that the focus really should be on the economy, on the problems with social services and Also of course, on corruption and as quite a few media outlets are pointing out, you know, this message really is resonating with voters and is putting Viktor Orban very much on the back foot.
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Emma Nelson
And let's move on to a story in the FT about Ukrainian drones and the fact that as Russia has been allowed to release its supply of oil following the Iran war, because there is a need for war for oil, Russia has been not necessarily brought back into the fold, but doors have opened a little towards it. Ukraine has now very much targeted that. I mean, I think we've heard in the headlines a moment ago that a major export terminal has been hit over overnight. It's Novorossiysk. That's the end point for pipelines running by the state run oil company Transneft. I mean, these are decisions being made by Ukraine to try to stop Russia from getting its oil back out there.
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Simon Brook
Yeah, exactly. And as you say, Russia has been brought back into the fold to some extent economically, if not politically. But the paper reminds us that with Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel, Moscow has done very out of this Iran war. But according to FT research, attacks on Russia's two main export locations in the Baltic Sea has cut what it describes as this Kremlin windfall. And the attacks on these two plants are particularly significant because between them they account for more than 40% of Russia's seaborne crude export. And so according to FT calculations, this could have cost the Kremlin nearly a billion dollars in revenues to the end, according to research quoted from the Kyiv School of Economics. So this has certainly had a big impact. I think what's also interesting about this story is that it shows the power of drones. You know, obviously during this war conflict, we've really seen drones come to the fore and we've seen also how effectively Ukraine has used them to attack Russia's infrastructure and in particular its oil economy. Economy. And I think this is just another example of that.
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Emma Nelson
Let's move on to an article in Politico which focuses on how France's politicians are pulling themselves together or not ahead of next year's presidential election. We've seen a remarkable resurgence in the Republicans who were absolutely decimated at the last election. This time the, the turn of those to be decimated is the centre left.
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Simon Brook
Yeah, exactly. Interesting piece in Politico. Just looking at what is described as deep fissures in the French Socialist Party that have hamstrung the motion, sorry, the movement during the recent municipal elections and now according to Politico, threaten to derail its hopes of winning the presidency in 2027. So what is described as a once very powerful faction is really, according to Politico, grappling with an identity crisis. And it's one that's gripping centre left parties across Europe. Politico points out that actually in the French case, the French Socialists can't even agree on the process of choosing a presidential candidate for next year, let alone who that candidate might be. And it points out that really, the French Socialist Party is being forced to choose whether it's a moderate centre left force that embraces compromise or whether it moves into the space currently occupied by La Francine Sumise and Jean Luc Melanchon, this really sort of strong left wing, anti capitalist and polarizing party. So the question is, should the Socialists continue to try and play it both ways, as they did during the municipal elections last month, but then the risk is that they end up being squeezed into relevant, irrelevant by the sort of centrist parties.
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Emma Nelson
Finally, let's look at an article in the Times here, a brilliant article which tries to explain why. Well, it's a scientist, isn't it? An Oxford scientist who has effectively divided people into 10 character types, which helps us understand how we interact with each other. I mean, it's a huge idea, but it's, it's absolutely lovely. And this, this, this, I think this deserves a little bit more than the 10 thinker types, which we'll come to in a moment, because I want to know what you are, but it's the idea of how your brain sort of are layered up and how that forms the way that you react to situations. And he used the Brexit vote as his starting point.
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Simon Brook
Yeah, exactly. So this is Dr. Marius Ostrovsky, who is a political and social theorist and also historian and he has a new book out. It's called how we 10 thinker types to Understand Ourselves and those Around Us. And as you say, it also, you know, plays into this question of why pollsters have so often misinterpreted the public mood and got it wrong over Trump's re election and also Brexit and issues like that. I'm a bit of a sucker for a bit of God psychology, so we probably haven't got time to go through all 10, have we? But I mean, amongst those, the ones that jumped out at me are the keen bean. This is the creative person who's constantly on the move, meeting people and is imaginative. They're zesty, precocious, always probing for new discoveries.
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Emma Nelson
I could quite like be, I'd quite
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Simon Brook
like that Keen Bean. I like that. What, you? I don't know. Perhaps you don't want to be. Perhaps you know, the worrywart. This is the friend who over thinks a moment of disagreement, stewing long after it's passed. They are nervy, brittle and prone to deliberation. I really hope I'm not like that. But what I do, what I would like to be like, I wouldn't tell
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Emma Nelson
you on the radio.
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Simon Brook
Exactly. So tell us when we finish. But the one I would aim to be is the reveler. And this is the friend who sweeps you up, gives you their undivided attention and deluges you with thoughtful gifts. They are dreamy, magnetic and overflowing with more to give.
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Emma Nelson
Isn't that lovely? It's gorgeous. And the point is what? That he. That he wants us to know our thinker types in order to help us understand other people.
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Simon Brook
Yeah, exactly. So I think it's self. Self awareness. You think? Which of these categories have I most aligned to? But then also when you're having a discussion with somebody else or thinking about work colleagues, friends, family members, given we are in the middle of a bank holiday, whoever it might be, you are perhaps thinking of them in one of these categories, so it's probably useful. On the other hand, I'm not a graph great fan of trying to push people into pigeonholes.
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Emma Nelson
No, no.
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Simon Brook
But I will be thinking when I meet people in future.
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Emma Nelson
Yes.
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Dame Rachel Whiteread
Let's just judge them.
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Simon Brook
Judge them harshly.
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Emma Nelson
Yes. You're one of 10 people. That is why Simon Brook, journalist and communications consultant and utter delight. He didn't think we saw delight in. In that one. I think. I think. Keen Bean, you will always be referred to Keen Bean. You're with the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Thank you. A quick look now at some of the other stories we're following today. A major oil export terminal has been hit in a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian port of Novoraziysk. The port serves as the endpoint for pipelines run by Russia's state run Transneft, the world's largest oil pipeline company. South Korea's president has expressed regret to North Korea after a drone incursion into the north was carried out without government approval. Mr. Lee said an investigation had established that two South Korean officials were involved. And Hungary and Serbia say they've foiled an attempt to blow up a key pipeline that carries Russian gas. They say explosives were discovered near the Turk Stream pipeline on the Serbian side of the border. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban has called an emergency Meeting his party is badly trailing in opinion polls ahead of Sunday's crucial elections. And those are the headlines on the Globalists. Stay tuned. It's 13:31 in Naypytheau and 8:31am in Zurich. Now, a week after launching a military coup that overthrew the elected government of Aung San SUU Kyi, its mastermind General Min Aung Hlang made a promise. Myanmar will return to civilian rule and elections will be held to ensure this. Well, that promise was made more than five years ago. But last week Min Aung Hlan was appointed president months after the widely condemning, after widely condemned sham elections. Well, I'm joined now by Dr. Ronan Lee, visiting scholar at the International State Crime Initiative at Queen Mary's with a focus on Myanmar and the Rohingya genocide and hate speech. Good morning Ronan.
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Dr. Ronan Lee
Great to be with you.
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Emma Nelson
I made a bit of a mouthful of that. But effectively we have a sort of a conclusion to a five year process now which was neither free nor fair.
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Dr. Ronan Lee
It certainly wasn't free or fair. I mean it was very deliberate though. I mean it's very clear that Minong Lang, when he launched his Coup and in 2021 expected to move towards this process of, of sham elections followed by his appointment as President of Myanmar very quickly. I mean this was something that I think he expected would happen within months, not years. There was genuine shock in Myanmar in the part of the military by just how strong the public resisted their coup in 2021. And the fact that it has taken five years, years to move to this process just shows how much resistance still exists within Myanmar.
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Emma Nelson
Explain to us just the level of resistance that we are, we are seeing now because as you say, the, the insurgency was, was fierce and, and still is.
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Dr. Ronan Lee
Well, it's a civil war. I mean within, within hours of the coup been launched, people took to the streets. There were, there was widespread street protest when that was violently oppressed by the military. So you had peaceful protesters facing shoot to kill orders. People formed their own militias and they've joined up with long standing ethnic and religious minority armed groups in the country. And this is a civil war. I mean these are military groups that are taking on the Myanmar military and it's happening across the country. I mean how the country stands today is the Myanmar military, the junta controls about 50% of the land territory of the country. So even with this transition to suppose a democracy, this is a president, Minong Lang is now a president who could realistically claim to control 50% of the land territory of the country. That shows you how divided it is. And there are no signs that that is going to end with any movement towards what the public regards as a sham democracy.
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Emma Nelson
So what happens now?
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Dr. Ronan Lee
Well, precisely what's happened for the last five years. I mean, the core problem is the military is not strong enough to take control of the entirety of the country and the opposition groups are not strong enough to displace the military. And what we've seen over the last five years is that these groups have wrestled with each other over control of, of control of the country. And as major events happen, I mean, we're seeing international events now with, with a major squeeze on, on oil and gas supplies into the country. But as that has happened, the relative strength of both groups has more or less stayed the same. Now, the Myanmar military is pretty shrewd in terms of they see opportunity in every crisis. So they will see an opportunity now with, with oil and gas supplies being squeezed to limit the movement of country which they're, which they're doing. There are long queues at petrol stations, so there's rationing now on motor vehicle fuel. And the military will see this as an opportunity to control how the public moves and they will see that as a chance to tighten their control of the country and they will see that as a way of weakening the opposition. But the core problem is that I think without outside support, international support for the Myanmar opposition, these are people who want to return genuine democracy to the country. We're just going to see a continuation of this stasis where each side maintains its relative strength, regards the other, and it just isn't significant movement one way or the other.
- [36:34]
Emma Nelson
Let's talk about the international situation, the international position that Myanmar now occupies, because we've had the UN accusing the regime of airstrikes killing civilians, mass killings of detainees. Myanmar has denied any accusation of genocide. That's one side of the argument. But to what degree is Myanmar now just becoming a little bit more than a regional headache? I mean, it always comes up at ASEAN meetings as we must talk about Myanmar. Has the region accepted Myanmar as a very badly behaved brother, or are there still any efforts to try to, to try to stop this?
- [37:14]
Dr. Ronan Lee
It's very clear in the last 12 months that there's been a, a sense that because there's not going to, there's unlikely to be major change within Myanmar. There's a sense that, well, maybe now's the time to just get on with accepting that the military is in power. I mean, part, part of the challenge here is that we've seen major geopolitical changes where western countries mean the US has no interest in Myanmar. It's very clear that Donald Trump, Trump has no interest in what's happening in Myanmar. And China has a keen interest in what's happening in Myanmar and regards it as, it's, it's, it, I mean, it is its neighborhood, regards it as a backyard. And China has already congratulated Minong Lang on becoming, on becoming president of the country and has pledged to work with his new with his government going forward. This is, this is a pretty clear indication that China regards this as a settled issue issue that Minong Lang is the president. Myanmar has moved towards a kind of democracy that's acceptable to China. And in the absence of significant international condemnation of what's going on within Myanmar and certainly in the absence of international indications that, you know, take any steps to do anything about it, I think what many people in Myanmar will now fear is that the international community will just shrug their shoulders now and just get on with this. And regardless what's happening in Myanmar as well, it's not ideal, it's not great, but it is a reality that needs to be accepted. And I think that's the challenge that opposition groups in Myanmar now face. They need to convince the international community not to turn their back on the country and to accept that the people of Myanmar do not want this military government in power. They don't want a pretend democracy in power. But geopolitically, international powers, they're pragmatic. They're going to look at what's happening on the ground and make their own decisions on what's in their best interests. And if they think that, that ordinary people in Myanmar and the opposition groups in Myanmar aren't able to displace the military, then it's likely that they'll just come to terms with the military in power in Myanmar, as has happened previous.
- [39:29]
Emma Nelson
Dr. Ronan Lee, visiting scholar at the International State Crime Initiative at Queen Mary's, with a focus on Myanmar, the Rohingya genocide and hate speech speech. Thank you so much for joining me on Monocle Radio. It's time to enjoy an update on the latest world business news. To help us with all that, Vicki Price is the economist and former joint head of the UK Government's economic service. Good morning, Vicki. Happy Easter Monday to you.
- [40:02]
Vicki Price
The same to you. Good morning.
- [40:03]
Emma Nelson
Good to have you with us. Right. Explain to us what is happening with oil.
- [40:08]
Vicki Price
Well, yes, as we know, prices have been going up and down quite a bit, but generally rather high and higher than anyone would like to see. Them be at. But of course, we've had President Trump's address, which was pretty worrying for the markets because he was threatening all sorts of things against Iran. And then oil prices, of course, rose and stock markets reacted negatively. But what we're now hearing is the possibility of, well, at least supposedly, discussions for a possible ceasefire that may happen for 45 days, which is being looked at apparently quite seriously. So what we've seen this morning is that oil price sort of came down a little bit, but there's still, you know, above $110 a barrel for Brent, which is really quite high. And of course, if you still look at what is being paid for oil that actually is available and has been supplied, then we're talking about much, much higher prices. So the Brent and WTI data that we always see is really for sort of futures, but in reality the cost is already increasing for loads of buyers of that oil. And it's already been reflected, of course, in inflation and petrol prices, gasoline prices, et cetera, all across the globe.
- [41:23]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. I mean, the interesting thing is that each step that is made, such as a threat by Donald Trump, followed by the news that there are mediators trying to organize a 45 ceasefire, has an incredibly volatile effect on oil prices and there is an inability for anybody to do any long term planning here, isn't there?
- [41:44]
Vicki Price
Well, that's absolutely true because we just don't know how long this whole conflict will last. But what we do know is that even if it does end like tomorrow, the price impact is going to be quite significant because there has been quite a lot of destruction of facilities, including, of course, not just oil production, gas production facilities, but also also refineries that have been affected. We know that the routes that are being used until now are no longer safe. In fact, certainly as far as the Strait of Hormuz is concerned, nothing much is moving, except we have been seeing some reports of various ships that have been able to get through, including a French one sort of very recently, and also tankers that are destined for China. So there has been some movement, but certainly nothing like, like what you would normally expect. What is of course also happening is that there are some noises that are coming up about, you know, what will happen afterwards. So the likelihood is that when things, well, if things ease finally, and those supply constraints are still there, there is the possibility if things start being able to move, of Gulf countries increasing outputs after that up to a point. We Fed OPEC meeting just now, just yesterday, agreeing to have an increase in its own production quotas starting in May. But of course, that is described anyway as theoretical because for the moment, they can't do anything very much, and even if they were to produce more, they can't get it out of the region. But at least there is the possibility of perhaps. Perhaps things may be normalising slightly faster than would otherwise have been the case. But the markets do not really think that right now. They think that the whole thing's going to probably last for quite some time, but they're not pricing it hugely higher for the future. In other words, they do expect an end to the conflict to happen. So that's at least something. We're not getting back to $200 a barrel days that we had seen in previous crises.
- [43:49]
Emma Nelson
What are we looking at in terms of alternative means of. Not sort of the great talk of renewables, etc. But Gulf states, what are they doing now to try to avoid a blockage like the Strait of Hormuz from happening again? There are reports of the examination of building a big pipeline.
- [44:10]
Vicki Price
Well, yes. No, in fact, as you're talking to me, I'm looking at a great chart which shows what can happen. There's only not just one, but there are more pipelines. Some are already there, some are being proposed, some, of course, you know, via Iraq, some going from the uae, elsewhere, the Saudi Arabian ones going all the way to the Red Sea. So we are talking about all sorts of attempts to bypass the state of Hormuz, but in reality they're costly. Some of the proposed ones will take quite some time before they become effective. And then, of course, you've got the concerns about the Red Sea itself and what may be happening there in terms of any hostilities for the future. So it's costly, it will take time, and the markets will need to also assess how much can come through those new pipelines. But there's a lot of talk about this because, of course, even if the conflict now stops, it could happen again. So there has to be some alternative that is developed to pacify the markets, if you like, like that there is going to be enough availability in the future without those disruptions happening continuously.
- [45:15]
Emma Nelson
Vicky Price, economist and former joint head of the UK Government's Economic Service, thank you for joining us. As ever, on Monocor Radio,
- [45:26]
UBS Narrator
Iq, EQ and AI, three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving A, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you ubs Banking is our craft.
- [46:01]
Emma Nelson
Now. The British artist Dame Rachel White Read has spent more than four decades focusing on the empty space around objects, makes casts of them. She was the first woman to win the Turner Prize, creating a concrete cast of the inside of a three story house. Monocle's Anneliese Maynard recently spoke to Dame Rachel about her new exhibition Substitute, which has opened at the Gagosian Art Gallery here in London. Anneliese began by asking what first drew the artist to the idea of what's called negative space.
- [46:30]
Dame Rachel Whiteread
I'd originally come from a sort of painting background. And you know, I did my degree in painting and I think, think the main thing that sort of drew me to making sculpture. Making it in this way where I was taking, you know, the essence of objects and things by casting the spaces inside them or underneath them. It kind of originally started with a piece called Closet, where I was using my sort of emotive energy in thinking about my childhood and various things. And I made a piece that was the cast of the inside of a wardrobe. Wardrobe, which I then covered in black felt, which sort of. It was as if it absorbed all the light. So it was like trying to make a kind of black furry space which is, you know, if you're working in a dark room or if you're, you know, as a kid hiding in a wardrobe or, you know, playing hide and seek or whatever, you know, these things are the things that sort of came to mind. And it was really about trying to make that feeling physical.
- [47:34]
I
Do you feel that casting allows other things to emerge that wouldn't perhaps emerge from painting or photography, for example?
- [47:43]
Dame Rachel Whiteread
Photography is something that I do use. I use it as a kind of sketchbook. So doing my degree in painting was. I was just totally bored with the edge of a canvas. You know, it just didn't interest me. I was always trying to find something that kind of went off the canvas and went into the room. But it, as I said, it wasn't until I got to the Slade and then really leaving the Slade year and a half, I suppose, into having studios and being, you know, an artist out in the world or trying to be that. I made what I would call my first sculpture, which was something. I don't think sculpture is about having something in the center of a room that you walk around. But that's actually what it was. You know, I made something that could physically stand on its own and you could walk around it. I'd always made things that leant against the wall, that hung from the ceiling, that you know, went into a kind of installation. You know, I'd never managed to make that sort of compact and concise object.
- [48:42]
I
You know, we're talking so much here about bringing kind of making a physical presence with the work you create. And I know we can't really do this interview without speaking about your Turner Prize winning piece, house from 1993. I know when that physical presence was taken away, when House was demolished, that was a very difficult experience for you.
- [49:03]
Dame Rachel Whiteread
The thing about House that was so complex was that, you know, like any kind of building project, it took longer than expected. It was very difficult. It was out in the street. Everything about it was hard. It was a real slog to get it made. I kind of made myself kind of physically quite ill doing it. And I think when it was up and then it was out in the world and it got so much attention and I was a really a baby on artist. You know, it was a very, very different time and it was a very complex time. And when it was then demolished very publicly because there was one particular person who in the council hated it because he just thought I was trying to gentrify the area. And I was trying to do this and I was trying to do that. And in fact, I was doing the exact opposite. I was actually talking about, you know, what was happening politically with housing, what was going on with Thatcher's government. And I think it was an extremely power piece of work. But for me, it was a hard toll because it was just exhausting. And then it was very publicly taken down. I was the first woman to win the Turner Prize. The whole thing was a circus and I just wasn't prepared for it.
- [50:17]
I
And now let's turn to substitute your new exhibition at the Gagosian, Davis Street. The exhibition brings together a range of mediums and a range of different scales, which is perhaps different from your other monumental single work installations like embankment in 2005. What made you want to gather these different works and mediums all into one space?
- [50:39]
Dame Rachel Whiteread
I was trying to make a show that had kind of aspect of all sorts of different works that I do because I have a very broad practice. You know, I work with lots of different materials. I make drawings. I make kind of sculptural drawings. I make these sort of resin works, works. I take a lot of photographs. I felt it was important to try and represent all those different things that I do. The back room is very surprising for, you know, people would go and go, wow, this is very different. You know, I'm hoping that people will think about all Sorts of things to do with plastic pollution, the sort of countryside, the sort of devastation on the borders of places, the kind of interest of. In the weather, interest in all these kind of things that I sort of think about when I'm, you know, out in nature or whatever, but also, you know, the detritus that we leave behind. And what I've tried to do is make some pieces that sort of act as furniture so you can. You can sit on them or you can use them as tables or whatever. And every piece that sells 10 of the money is going to go to a charity, which is, you know, to do with clean water and all of that sort of stuff.
- [51:56]
I
You have a real focus on sustainability and reuse in your work. I believe it was embankment that you used the materials after to make furniture. Where do you see your role as an artist in trying to preserve the planet, but also making new things and making new art?
- [52:13]
Dame Rachel Whiteread
You know, it's a really complex thing, isn't it? I mean, you know, you make work about out the planet, but you're also making work out of fiberglass, which is a very alien material on the planet. You know, it's. It's a very complex area. But I think, for me, I think if you can make art that makes people think in a slightly different way, that makes them pay attention to things that are going on, that makes them be honest with what they do do, you know, I think that's a really important role that an artist has. And, you know, I'm certainly not preaching to people by any means. You know, they can take it or leave it. But I, you know, I've always worn my politics on my sleeve. You know, it's not something that is new to me. I was brought up in a very sort of political family, and those things rub off on you, you know, and hopefully my children appear picking up the same stuff that I was taught. You know, it's because they're, in my opinion, good values.
- [53:16]
Emma Nelson
And that was the artist Dame Rachel White Read talking to Monocle's Annalise Maynard. Her exhibition substitute is at the Gargoian Gallery in London until the middle of May. You're listening to Monocle Radio. 1553 in Seoul, which is where we head to for our final item on today's guest Globalist. Because Buddhism is currently experiencing a surge in popularity among younger people in South Korea. As a result, tickets for the Buddhist Expo held in Seoul across the weekend, were very difficult to get hold of. The event was absolutely packed with huge crowds, many of them in the 20s and 30s. Well, at the Expo was Nemo Kim, journalist specializing in Asian news. Good to have you on the program. What was the Expo like? Nemo.
- [54:01]
Nemo Kim
Hi. Thanks for having me.
- [54:03]
Emma Nelson
So you went to the Buddhist Expo. What was it like?
- [54:06]
Nemo Kim
It was a four day event that wrapped up this past Sunday. And until fairly recently, the event was a much more traditional trade fair, mostly attended by Buddhist insiders, monks, suppliers of temple robes and so on. But over the past few years, as you mentioned, it's undergone a striking transformation. Now what's interesting is that Korea doesn't actually have a huge Buddhist population. Only around 15% are Buddhist, while around around 50% have no religion. So also Buddhism used to be seen here as something for the elderly or for people in the countryside. About as far from hip as you could possibly get. But due to its recent surge in popularity, the Expo has been drawing huge numbers from the general public, especially Gen Z Koreans. And it's turned into one of Seoul's unlikeliest hot tickets. Organizers say attendance this year was all almost 300,000. They said they had to stop selling tickets intermittently due to crowd safety concerns.
- [55:06]
Emma Nelson
So I mean, and that's clearly a sign of its popularity. So talk us through what the transformation was like at the Expo. I mean, the idea of a Buddhist trade fair obviously makes, you know, amazing images and amazing thoughts, but how does it transform itself to make a connection with a new order audience?
- [55:26]
Nemo Kim
It seemed more like a lifestyle fair than a religion themed event. On sale were Buddhist themed merch with playful twists like statuettes of the body Satva of compassion marketed as stress relief items for office workers, hair accessories, reading all beings first and miniatures of the wooden percussion instrument used in Buddhist chanting and so on. People are also lining up for Buddhist merch with meme like slogans with Buddhist ideas like bath towel that says wipe away delusions. One of the busiest stalls was a lifestyle brand which got a boost from RM from BTS spotted wearing their trousers recently. And some parts of the Expo felt more like a club with Buddhist chants playing over dance beats and graphic posters on the walls. Organizers had even invited well known DJs for a Buddhist themed EDM party.
- [56:23]
Emma Nelson
So there is this feeling therefore, that Buddhism and young people are able to connect in mutual spaces. What is driving this trend into Buddhism?
- [56:34]
Nemo Kim
Yeah, the younger people in Korea seem drawn to Buddhism because of its calm and open image and also its environmentally friendly associations which fit well with ESG minded values. And that appeal I think seems especially strong for young, younger Korean people living increasingly busy, stressful lives. And also as you said another reason that Buddhism here has shown, it's shown a real ability to adapt to the needs and tastes of younger generations. So rather than remaining stuck in the past, Buddhism in Korea has embraced fresh and creative ideas to cater to Gen Z Koreans.
- [57:15]
Emma Nelson
Where does this now go next? Because Buddhism, obviously, with its, its wonderful ancient traditions, needs to retain that, but at the same time needs to ensure that this upticking in, in popularity is something that on the ground that temples can actually respond to.
- [57:34]
Nemo Kim
That's right. And there has been concerns that this will just stop at the merch level, you know, like people will just visit to buy some stuff, which is completely the opposite of owning nothing, which is one of the key ideas of Buddhism. So there has been criticism over the over merchandising aspect of the religion. So that will be the one of the tasks that the religious leaders here, the Buddhist religious leaders in this country will have to think pretty hard over.
- [58:09]
Emma Nelson
Nemo Kim, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Seoul. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to our producers, Hasan Anderson and Anita Riota. Our researcher was Annelise Maynard and our studio manager was Mariella Bevan. After the headlines, there's more music on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London. The globalist is back at the same time tomorrow. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thanks for listening. Happy Easter. Have a great week. Sam.
- [59:31]
UBS Narrator
With ubs, you have a truly global power partner, incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.