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A
Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies. All happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 31st December 2025 on Monocor Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, protests spread in Iran, but with tough crackdowns. We'll have the latest also ahead in the next 30 minutes.
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C
People care, of course. It's a passion driven business, especially at the level that the world's 50 best restaurants is operating at.
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B
An insight into how the best of the best in the restaurant business retain their edge. We'll go through the papers.
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D
And I'm Lars Pavanger, Monocle's Oslo correspondent. Today, Norwegians end the year with another chess champion while rowing over when Christmas is actually over. And why are men my age stupid around fireworks?
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B
We'll enjoy the latest headlines from Norway. That's all coming up right here on the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. Iran has seen three days of protests now, all starting on Sunday when shopkeepers went on strike. The demonstrations stem from Iran's current economic crisis, with the country's currency dropping by 40% since the war between Israel and Iran this summer. Well, this is combined with electricity and water shortages, plus soaring inflation. But in the last couple of days, the protests have expanded to target the regime itself. To bring us up date, I'm joined now by Scott Lucas, adjunct professor at the Clinton Institute, University College, Dublin. Good morning, Scott. Good to have you.
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E
It's great to be here, Emma. Thank you very much.
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B
Happy New Year when it comes. Right, let's just talk about the, the amount that these protests have now spread. They've gone out of Tehran and they're now incorporating different sectors of life from, from just shopkeepers.
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E
Absolutely, Emma. I mean these started on Sunday and they started amongst certain groups in Tehran, in the capital. But significantly, some shopkeepers refused open and this spread to the bazaars in Tehran. And the bazaars, especially the Grand Bazaar, are the lifeblood of that city. And the reason for the protests, the immediate reason, is this catastrophic decline in the Iranian currency, the rial, which now stands at 1.4 million that's million with an M to 1 against the US dollar. And to give you some idea of how sharp that decline is, it's dropped 97% since 2018, when, at 45,000 to 1, and it's lost almost half its value this year. And when that happens, inflation spikes. Officially, it's more than 40%, but it's far higher than that. And the basics of life can become unaffordable. And, of course, it's harder to sell your products. Now, what's happened is those protests over economic conditions have spread to other areas of Iranian life, including the universities. And significantly, they have spread beyond Tehran. They're now in cities across the country. Again, we're not talking the size of the demonstration, if you can think that far back to 2009 over the disputed elections, or even 2022 over the attacks on women. But they have the potential to grow farther, and they have the potential to further unsettle what is already a weakened Iranian regime.
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B
So we now have students being as emboldened as to shout, death to the dictator. Death to their regime in public. And we all know what happened in 2009 and 2022. There was an incredibly heavy crackdown. Are we seeing the same thing being done by the authorities this time around?
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E
We're seeing a heavy security presence, especially in Tehran, but we're not yet seeing the size of arrest and detentions that we had during those protests. I think one Iranian student was seriously injured in Tehran yesterday. There were at least five arrested. There were 11 other reported arrest. But in a sense, the arrest and the detentions never stop in Iran, although there's been some easing on some aspects of life. You can see women now defying the compulsory hijab, the ongoing attempt to detain lawyers, to detain journalists, to detain human rights activists. That never stops. What the Iranian regime had hoped is that by not having these massive crackdowns, but targeting specific parts of community, that you sort of diffused any potential protest. Clearly, at this case, they're going to have to rethink whether that's worked.
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B
And indeed, we now have a voice coming out from the Iranian president coming out and saying, masid Pizashkin wants the government to hear the legitimate demands of the protesters. What difference does that make?
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E
Well, it is significant. I mean, we have gone through a long period. Since 1989, the current Supreme Leader has been that absolute ruler of Iran. But the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is now 86. He sort of receded from public view. He hasn't disappeared, but he's receded. And you have a centrist government which has actually said, look, now we need to deal with these economic problems and we need to open up the political space, not get rid of the Islamic Republic. But we do need some reforms. The challenge here is that that government is part of what is now a very fragmented Iranian leadership. So while it wants to see engagement with people over the causes of their discontent, you've got the military, especially the Revolutionary Guards, you've got parliament, you've got other parts of Iranian society that are hardliners, that actually say, no, this is all due to foreign intervention. It's all the fault of the Americans and the Israelis, and we have to crack down on these protests. So where do you. Who has the power in Iran to decide the course of action over the next few days?
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B
So is there any danger to the regime here?
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E
Not in the sense that I think it'll be toppled. And I think we have to be cautious that there are many Iranians, I mean, most of them in the diaspora, I know them, I'm friends with many of them. But there are some of the diaspora who just want to see outright revolution on the streets. In Iran, you have some irresponsible voices in the Trump administration and in Israel that would call for just this massive confrontation. And Iranians themselves have said, look, no, we want reforms, we want political space. But we saw what happened in 2009 when many of us were killed and when so many of us were imprisoned. We saw what happened in 2022. We've got to maintain the call for reforms, but not overthrow of the system at this point.
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B
And talking a little bit more about, you mentioned the White House and Donald Trump and the US And Israel earlier on this week when there was a meeting at Mar a Lago between the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, Trump said he would support any strike by Israel against Iran. That brings fresh threat. From the point of view of Iran and its citizens, would something like a renewed threat of attack from Israel actually strengthen the regime?
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E
Yeah, probably. Because what we saw in June when Israel launched the 12 Day War on Iran, killed a lot of its senior leadership, especially the military leadership, threatened the life of the supreme leader and of the president, Iranians did not rise up and say, that's it, regime, out you go. Instead, in a sense of Iranian nationalism, they came out and said, we support the country. And the regime can draw upon that. You know, even if people hate the regime, you can draw upon the fact they love the country to say you have to to stick with us at this point. So I think the worst thing that could happen at this point at multiple levels, beginning with the level of the death and destruction would cause, is if Benjamin Netanyahu, to save his own skin, to be honest with you, has another pop at Iran with airstrikes and if the Trump administration supports that.
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Scott Lucas, thank you so much for joining us on the line from Dublin. You're listening to Monocle Radio.
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A
CRAFT is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office, Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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B
8:09Am In Xerox. 7:09 here in London. It's papers time, everyone. And joining me in the studio is Nina Dos Santos, international broadcast correspondent and former CNN Europe editor. I hope you had a good Christmas. What happened, Kelly?
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F
Thank you so much. I had a great time. I was in London and then I spent a few days in Lisbon. Just got back on the last flight in, sort of midnight, but very cold, slightly weary, and it's only the 31st.
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B
You know, and the new year midnight tonight.
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F
I'm off to Devon, actually, to spend some time in the English countryside at a friend's place. It's an annual celebration. We all get together. It's like sort of the 30 somethings come, the 40 somethings with their 10 kids, one smelly old Labrador by the Aga, you know, typical British winter.
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B
We can all dream of this. Thank you. Well, we're very grateful, Nina, between the festivities, for you to pop in and give us a look at the papers.
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F
What have you spotted?
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B
There's something on the BBC's website you wanted to draw our attention to.
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F
Well, actually, I want to start out, if that's all right, with the Financial Times, because Alec Russell there, foreign editors, been talking about the irony of calling this the year of Peace. And he's pointing out that Roman historian Tacitus famously said, you know, they make a desert and then they call it peace. And I suppose the point he's talking about here is he's saying that warmongering under the guise of supposed peace is actually nothing new. It's been going on for millennia, more than 2,000 years. So Donald Trump, I'm afraid he didn't invent this one. And he was saying that in 2025, that'll surely go down as the year that probably took the biscuit in terms of the peace propaganda front, because of course, remember that Donald Trump famously promised to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of coming into office. As we know, painfully, that hasn't happened and many more lives have been lost in parts of the world, like, for instance, the Middle east, with the war in Gaza over there looking decidedly uncertain, even though there's been a ceasefire since October. And we've got a conflict potentially sparking up yet again directly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen. So I suppose the point is proxy wars have gone on for thousands of years. Nobody really agrees to peace unless both sides either are exhausted or one side really has scored a definitive victory. And we certainly haven't seen that in the hot zones of the world this year.
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B
The important part to me of this article from Alec Russell, which is short.
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F
Pithy, but really it is very short, I was quite surprised.
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B
One scrolls down and there's nothing there, ladies and gentlemen, but it's fine because it does the job beautifully, is actually, you know, you mentioned Tacitus, but this idea that Roman historians are not sources which are regularly consulted by the likes of the Trump administration. Nor do one wonders just how much attention people pay backwards nowadays.
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F
Yes, absolutely. This age old question of whether or not history repeats itself. I suppose Trump is the ultimate example of history repeating itself, but on warp speed. Because, of course, remember, we've already had one Trump administration, although it was punctuated by the sort of slightly calmer years of Joe Biden, at least domestically in the United States. You could argue that with the catastrophic and chaotic withdrawal of American troops under Joe Biden's watch from Afghanistan, other parts of the world won't necessarily look upon his legacy quite as favorably. But having said that, as you were saying before, what is ironic about this particular piece is that, yeah, you keep scrolling down and then you think, well, that's the whole point, isn't it? There's nothing there yet to look forward to.
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B
Indeed. So let's talk about Yemen. This is the UAE saying it's going to withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen. This is after Saudi Arabia said, you need to get out now.
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F
Yeah. Now, what's really concerning about this particular conflict is that this is the first time it's really spilled into these two Sunni powers that, of course, were, you know, big allies when Saudi Arabia famously ostracized Qatar about a decade or so ago. Now, there are other sides of various conflicts in the world, not just Yemen. But also Sudan and other parts of the world too. And what we're seeing here is this sort of growing stridency from Abu Dhabi and the other emirates. And Saudi Arabia has directly accused it now of interfering in its backyard, undermining Saudi security. And it's taken the really unusual step here of attacking some of its tanks as they were being delivered in Yemen. Now, both of these two countries have been fighting on various sides in Yemen. There's a three way conflict going on at the moment. The side that the UAE has backed is actually a side that wants independence in the southeast of Yemen and that borders on Saudi territory. Saudi says that that would radically undermine its security. It would have significant consequences for neighboring Oman as well. And but what is interesting about this particular attack that has happened over the last 24 hours is that it means that this is no longer just a proxy conflict. They're not using proxies here, these two countries, to actually go after each other's assets. They've actually directly hit each other's assets in a place like Yemen. And what is also interesting, as I said before, is that there is this three way conflict. The third party, ironically enough, watching on from the sidelines, is the Shia backed Houthi groups, which are backed by Riyadh's strategic rival in the region, which is of course Tehran. And they will be watching, thinking, well, hang on, it's taken them more than 10 years to try and turf us out unsuccessfully. And now these two sides that were fighting us up until recently are on other sides of this three way conflict are now fighting each other directly inside Yemen. So it is a significant upscaling of the risk in that part of the world.
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B
I'd say it has a wider repercussion as well. The Financial Times has made it very clear that this escalation between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and I'm quoting here, lays bare a deepening rift between two huge Gulf powerhouses, but who are traditionally allies and key US Partners. And if you have the UAE and Saudi at loggerheads, but the United States in the middle, this has a profoundly destabilizing effect. Far, far further than the region itself.
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F
Yes, absolutely. And as I was saying before, we've been in a similar sort of situation. When Saudi Arabia told Qatar to get back in line a few years ago, quote, unquote, probably not the most diplomatic language there, but that was, if I'm not wrong, around about the time of the Trump administration's first time in office. So we have seen Saudi Arabia sort of shift its allegiances with some of the other Sunni dynasties in the Arabian Peninsula and lots of people have been quite concerned and quite sort of alarmed at the swiftness with which Saudi Arabia and the UAE have fallen out out. But as you pointed out before, they're both keen to sort of, you know, leverage their links with America. Stronger links with America. And the UAE is becoming a far more significant player, not just diplomatically. That was one of the reasons why Saudi Arabia originally was quite irked with Qatar sort of, you know, stepping out of line, using its oil and gas money to gain diplomatic heft around the world, getting involved in some of these proxy conflicts, as I said, in Riyadh's backyard. And, but also the other thing is the UAE is now becoming a far more significant hub, not just for hydrocarbons. We're seeing a brain drain from places like the UK to the uae. It's a big tourist hub. It's really managed to diversify its economy quite significantly. What's interesting about the part of Yemen that the UAE is, where the UAE is backing this separatist movement is that that also has an oil and gas dynamic because if I'm not wrong, that is also where the proven oil reserves for yem and of course it borders on very significant trading routes around the Arabian Peninsula. So I think this is definitely a conflict to watch. And hey, let's see whether Donald Trump gets involved in that one. Maybe he could prove Tacitus right or wrong after all, at least on the other side of the planet.
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B
Let's move on to the New York Times. Can a corporation be complicit in war crimes? Sweden is trying to find out. There is that age old effort by the law isn't there to try to determine whether the actions of a nation or a corporation actually could be responsible for bigger, more wide reaching social and economic effects. This is generally case when you look at look at the case law, but generally the answer is no. Things are kept separate. But this is a very, very interesting case, isn't it, about a Swedish oil company, London Oil.
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F
That's right. And M. Gessen, the Russian born US based opinion columnist at the New York Times, who's written many sort of books about, you know, conflict around the world and also autocrats around the world, has written this rather thought provoking piece where they've spent some time in a courtroom following Sweden's longest running case of this type, which has gone on since 2023. It's likely to wrap up in about May of the new year. And as you pointed out, it centers upon whether or not executives at a Swedish owned oil firm based in Geneva could be deemed complicit in war crimes because essentially it dates back to the 1990s when this oil company moved into the vacuum in Sudan that was created by other American companies having to move out after the Sudanese regime back in those days was sanctioned by the US Administration under Bill Clinton's time for human rights abuses and many other things. And the chief executive of this firm had allegedly, according to this evidence that M. Gessen's writing about that's come up in this case, said, well, look to reporter actually, it's an opportunity for us. When other big players come out of the market, we move in. And as part of this case, you also see evidence of correspondence between executives locally on the ground of this Western company saying, look, we are aware that perhaps ethnic cleansing is happening nearby. We are aware that the government and local rebel forces are doing this, that and the other. And that is the type of thing that's been brought up, you know, should we continue our drilling? Don't worry, actually, we're continuing just with the operations. But we're aware that the security dynamic around us is changing. And I suppose the whole question mark at the center of this is under the Nuremberg trials, many German companies actually never really faced proper censure. And so this might be the first example of a Western firm seeing a whole raft of its employees potentially have to face consequences if the Swedish prosecutors have their way as a result of this conflict. Now, now the downside is that when you have cases like this, they date back to some time in history. And some of these executives are already very elderly, 79, 80 odd years old. Their memories are starting to fail them. And so the counterargument is it was a different dynamic. They can't really remember what was going on then. Sudan has a new government. Should a Swedish company's executives, if they were salaried employees, really face this type of censure just to make the point that Nuremberg wasn't able to make all those generations ago?
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B
Nina dos Santos, international broadcast correspondent and the former CNN Europe editor, thank you and a very happy new year to you when it comes. You're listening to the globalist. Now to Asia, where restaurants in the region dominated the World's Best 50 Restaurants list in 2025, well ahead of the awards ceremony in Turin earlier this year, Monocle Sachin Obaid sat down with William Drew, director of content at 50, to talk about how the list has grown into a cultural barometer. Sasha began by asking him about the rankings evolution I think there are two.
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C
Things we're incredibly proud of as an organization that have evolved over the last two decades. The first is the sense of community. When you hear on the ground these four or five days worth of events for the world's 50 best restaurants, we're bringing people together from across the world. And that sense, community, collaboration, cooperation, friendship, sharing food and drink together is, you know, one of the fundamentals of life and humanity. And we do that and we see those friendships develop and those kind of cultural bridges come together. So it's a really special feeling to be part of that and to be able to play a role in that. The second thing that we're proud of is how we've opened up the world of dining to more people, and hopefully more people are discovering more cuisines and inspired to travel and find new restaurants, new cuisines, new destinations that perhaps they wouldn't have done before the ranking of the world's 50 best restaurants existed.
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G
The list has clearly influenced travel, media, even national branding. And can you share a moment or region where you saw 50 best truly shift the spotlight in terms of a transformational brand way?
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C
Don't think it was always part of the vision. I wouldn't claim that, but I mean, I wasn't there when it started 22 years ago. I have been there a long time, so I've been involved for the last 13, 14 years. So that vision has developed and evolved over time. But I think the game changer was when we started launching regional editions of 50 best restaurants rankings. So that was in 2013. We first launched Asia's 50 best restaurants, and then later the same year, Latin America's 50 best restaurants. And what we've seen in particular in those regions is that sense of community that wasn't there before in the gastronomic world. But also we've seen the international spotlight fall on more countries that perhaps didn't have the global or international spotlight on them before in food terms. So we have seen, and a great example being Peru in Latin America, which has become one of the most most admired gastronomic countries in the world. Whereas 20 years ago, most people outside of Peru, or maybe outside of that part of South America, would not have known that about Peru and would not be traveling to Peru for food, which many millions of people now do. Their pride in their cuisine and their ability to spread that across the world has been an education. I mean, it's fascinating. And they recognize and they use the fact that they have extraordinary biodiversity with the, you know, the different ecosystems within that country and they really lean into that and create a unique cuisine and unique dining experiences.
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G
What responsibility comes with curating such a visible and impactful list? How do you balance the legacy names with emerging talent?
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C
Yeah, of course there's a responsibility. We take it very seriously. We know that it's important for business terms, important for economic development because tourism, food, tourism is really important and people care. Of course, it's a passion driven business, especially at the level that the world's 50 best restaurants is operating at. The chefs really care. So there's a responsibility to make the list as credible and have as much integrity as possible. We work very hard at that. Behind the scenes, how do we balance legacy with innovation? I think that's not really down to us as the curator so much as the voting panel, which I know is an extension of what we are. But the list is created by more than 1100 experts across the world and they are choosing their best restaurant experiences and they tend to balance innovation with legacy and the same number of votes. You might be choosing a restaurant that's 40 years old, been on this list for the last 15 years, and you might be choosing somewhere brand new that is cutting and doing some extraordinary new, innovative things. Both of those can be equally valid. It's not one. The World's 50 Best Restaurants is not one thing or another. It embraces that diversity.
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G
In terms of coloring your hospitality trends, what are the most exciting things right now for you? And are there regions or concepts that you think are on the cusp of greater recognition?
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C
One of the most exciting things I think is the return to respect for an exploration of indigenous ingredients and indigenous food cultures. We've just heard from a lady called Mindy woods at 50 Best Talks, who is a First Nations Australian. I mean, an extraordinary talk she gave about Aboriginal culture in Australia and mainly about Aboriginal food and the native ingredients of Australia as an example, and how it's an extraordinary bounty that is generally underutilised and unknown, not only in the wider world, but even within Australia itself. So that's just one example of a shift towards a respect for heritage and indigenous foodstuffs, which goes with the move towards locality and sustainability as well. So that's, that's been really interesting. I wouldn't want to pick out one country or region. There are so many on the cusp of greater recognition. Part of our job is to shine a light on, on what we see as exciting new talent and new cuisines. We do that day in, day out in the world's 50 best restaurants, but also in future lists and regional lists, especially when Sometimes in the 51 to 100 lists, extensions of the list, because they tend to spotlight newer places or places that maybe haven't had that international spotlight previously.
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B
And that was William Drew, director of content at 50 best, speaking to Monocle contributor Sachin Obaid. You're listening to the Globe list. 8:27am In Oslo and we get some Norwegian news now by Oslo's correspondent, Monocle. Lars Bavanga standing by. Very good morning to you, Lars, and happy New Year.
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D
Good morning to you, Emma. Happy New Year.
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B
How's. How's life where you are?
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D
Well, it's been a very quiet Christmas period in terms of news, but there's been things happening and particularly one thing has kept the nation's attention and that is the game of chess. Norwegians are obsessed with chess and where I've been at my dad's house celebrating Christmas with my sister. They've been glued to the telly watching the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship that's been going on in Qatar. And this is something I'm not really into. And it's quite fascinating to see how just how massive this game is in Norway.
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B
Do you. I mean, the fact that you're, you know, not ostensibly a major chess fan, but the fact is that the whole of the Bavanga family are sort of huddled around the television having this glorious collective experience. Did you find yourself being wooed by chess?
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D
Well, I must say I. I was drawn into it because it's, it's like anything that is well presented. They have a live studio with studio guests, fam. Norwegian people who are all incredibly talented when it comes to understanding and commenting on chess and it being rapid and blitz chess, which is very, very quick. So the blitz chess, the gay, the. The players only have about 10 minutes to finish the game. So it's really, really full on and the commentary is like watching Formula one. It's really, really rapid and you get drawn into it and after a few hours you, you really start understanding and, and try to predict the next move from these amazingly talented people.
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B
And one of the reasons why the Norwegians love this is Magnus Carlson, the chess grandmaster.
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D
I guess you could say it's all his fault, or better benefit, maybe. He was, of course, the prodigy that came out in the early 2000s and started winning everything. He's now a grown man, but he's still winning pretty much everything. He has been the world reigning world normal Chess champion for, for over a dec. And he now is the reigning World Rapid and Blitz Chess Champion. He just Won the blitz round late last night. So he's still up there. And of course it's fun to watch when your countryman is, is winning everything.
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B
Okay, let's move on to the. The enormously important question that the Norwegians are all asking themselves is when, when will Christmas finish?
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D
Well, I mean, what do you think? It's, it's. It's something that's definitely up for debate in my household. So I spend a my year also in the UK being married into a British family. And I have been grown up with. The Christmas ends on the 13th day of Christmas. That's the 6th of January. I don't know why, but now that I've been reading up on it in Norwegian papers over the past few days, I do know why. It's an old tradition Norway was Christian about thousand years ago and that's when these call it rules came in that you have Christmas until the 13th day of Christmas and then it is over. Whereas in England some people want to end it earlier and that's because they started early and I say it's too early. My tradition is, and I've got support from the most famous academic on Christmas in Norway here, Christmas starts on Christmas Eve and that's when the tree goes in, not in November.
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B
Okay, Lars has spoken. Finally, it's New Year's Eve. You have at the beginning of this program warned us about that as a middle aged man you can find yourself, well, getting yourself in a bit of a pickle if about banger goes off in your hand.
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D
Well, yes, it's, it's a slightly funny but also very serious story. In Norway, pretty much every household will buy their own fireworks and set them off at midnight tonight. It's fun to watch. It's quite spectacular if you live in a, in a town or a city because it completely lights up the sky in, in a sort of a slightly anarchic way. It's not very organized. But of course, of course it's typically the father of the house, a middle aged man who is in charge of this because it's a, a blue job if you want to be very old fashioned.
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B
I think we are being a little old fashioned there, Lars, but do care.
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D
I know, absolutely. And this is what I also grew up with. And typically the father of the house will have had a few before midnight. And of course combining alcohol with explosives is a bad idea. But nevertheless, every year you see damages to people and property in Norway as a result of irresponsible people, typically middle aged men. I'm afraid the statistics show this year as well will be responsible for this. I've been to some events in Oslo where there's been literal running battles involved involving fireworks, people firing at each other, which has been incredibly scary and stressful. So the authorities every year are trying to ban it, they're trying to at least regulate it, but it seems to be going on still.
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B
Lasba Vanger, Monocle's Oslo and self appointed health and safety correspondent, thank you so much for joining us on the Globalist and I wish you the best of 2026. And that's all the time we have for the Globalist for today and indeed for the year. So the warmest of thanks to all my guests in 2025 and to the producers Tom Webb, Hassan and Addison and Monica Lillis, and to our studio manager, Elliot Greenfield. After the headlines. There's more music on the way. The Globalist is back next year. I'm for now though, I'm Emma Nelson. Goodbye. Thanks for listening. Happy New Year to you.
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A
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