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Georgina Godwin
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies. All happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 13th February 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U.
Tom Webb
Hello.
Georgina Godwin
This is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin on the show ahead.
Andrew Muller
Hey, they have to take care of the whole world.
Alexandra Kushner
This is the United States.
Andrew Muller
NATO is very important, but there's also the Western Hemisphere.
Alexandra Kushner
There's also the inner Pacific.
Alexis Self
I totally accept it.
Georgina Godwin
Agree with it. NATO head Mark Rutte justifying why the US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, failed to attend the alliance's Defence Ministers meeting in Brussels. We'll hear what was discussed and we'll check in with our team at the Munich Security Conference too. Mediation appears to be becoming a crowded field. We'll examine the jostling for position amongst Middle Eastern nations when it comes to negotiating peace in the region. We'll cross to our Paris studio to look at the newspaper front pages. And then a desperate, geriatric dictator tries to change the constitution to cling onto power. Sounds familiar. It's Groundhog Day in Zimbabwe. Andrew Muller has had a busy week and he shares what he's learned.
Thangam Debonair
Plus, it isn't just the prize for new writers, but we of course want to celebrate those women who are entering the fray of non fiction.
Georgina Godwin
That's Thanan Debonair, one of the judges of the Women's Prize for non Fiction, as the long list for the prestigious award is announced. And finally, we'll be in Milan for the latest from the Olympic winners to games. That's all ahead here on the Globalist. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party has won a majority in the country's first election since mass protests toppled Sheikh Hasina, marking a dramatic political reset after years of authoritarian rule in the US Donald Trump has repealed the federal finding that greenhouse gases endanger human health, scrapping vehicle emissions standards in the most sweeping climate policy rollback of his administration. And Australia's Conservative opposition has chosen Angus Taylor as its new leader. As the Liberal Party struggles to recover from a heavy election defeat and vote adrift to the far right. Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, the Munich security conference is opening against a tense European backdrop. After various launch events, including Monocle's gathering with Hitachi, attention now turns to today's main sessions where expectations are building that European leaders will speak more plainly about the United States. That unease is already visible in Brussels. A NATO summit there wrapped up without U.S. defense Secretary Pete Hegseth present, adding momentum to discussions about how Europe shoulders more of its own security burden. Well, I'm joined now by Monocle's foreign editor Alexis Self and by Monocle security correspondent Guraana Gurgic. Alexis is in Munich. Guarana is in Zurich. Thank you to both of you for joining us. Lex, what tone set the first gathering of the conference in Munich and what is the mood on the ground there?
Alexis Self
Good. Morgan, Georgina. Yeah, I think the big question this year is how forthright the Europeans will be in their criticism of the Trump administration. Last year I was here when Jody Banks speech on the first morning completely set European heads spinning and they never really stopped for the rest of the year. This has become in a rearming world, the kind of set piece conference. And top European leaders are here, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Metz, of course, Pierre Starmer. But there's also a large US Delegation now that's led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But there's also a large contingent of Democrats who are coming and it's believed that some of them might encourage Europe to be a bit more outspoken in their criticism.
Georgina Godwin
So Rubio off to Munich, but of course, a no show from Hegseth at NATO Guarana. How did Mark Ritter explain his absence? I mean, we heard a little clip of that at the top of the show. It seems like Ritter is constantly trying to is he a Trump whisperer? Is he trying to soothe the path? What is the rationale behind his attitude to his kowtowing would say to America.
Guraana Gurgic
Mark Ruta is always busy trying to find excuses for the Trump administration. And this time around it is about also trying to package the message that was delivered not by the secretary of defense or the secretary of war as of new, but by Elbridge Colby, who is Pentagon's policy chief, essentially saying that this is still a very constructive message, that the United States, of course, is very clear about what its priorities are, but trying to sort of dampen and kind of moderate that message to basically conclude that Colby ultimately delivered something that's more of a reassurance rather than a cause of Alarm, even though the calls are, and the messages are definitely those that are pointing in the direction of less US Involvement in all things NATO in terms of the, the posture and structure of US Forces in Europe and so on. So there's plenty of that that's moving in the same direction that we actually heard from Pete Hexad just last year. But maybe the tone was interpreted a little bit more constructive given that there was this reference to strong basis of working together and these sorts of things. But again, it is very much the same message that we've heard in the national security strategy of the United States and the latest national defense strategy just from last month, that the United States won't be focusing on Europe. And not just that, but also that there are significant differences when it comes to some of these shared strategic foundations and views on the world.
Georgina Godwin
So what practical steps were discussed that would allow Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defence guarana? For instance, I'm thinking of Arctic Century in Greenland.
Guraana Gurgic
This would be the prime example of trying to appease the Trump administration. So basically focusing now on the high north and, and really being serious about Europe's northern flank and not just eastern flank, which is of course the, the center of all of NATO's and European defense efforts. And, and basically aid when it comes to everything that's been going on since the beginning of Russia's full scale invasion. But that, so beyond Arctic Century, beyond Eastern century, which is of course also a way that NATO has been responding, or NATO, Europe in particular has been responding to some of these questions that have been swirling around Trump administration's commitment. There are questions now over how much European states can actually share this burden or shift the burden completely. Will they be able to get from the promises to performance. We know that European Union in this regard is really important with all the plans that we've heard announced and that need to be delivered when it comes to technological and defense industrial base, when it comes to scaling up defense industries, supply chain integration and then ultimately once all these systems are in place, whether they will be deployable, whether Europeans will become more interoperable and less strategically dependent on the United States, which they currently are.
Georgina Godwin
So lex, I wonder how defense companies and security officials in Munich are responding to the political mood and the decisions that came out of that NATO meeting in Brussels.
Alexis Self
Yeah, I think that European defense companies and defence companies worldwide have benefited from the past year, obviously the spending for Nanza. And then you've heard, I think the big thing in Europe is interoperability and more Europe has put its money where its mouth is. Over the past year, there's still some doubt over how easily these separate armed forces will work as one. And again, there was a meeting yesterday in Belgium about how Europe could compete economically with China and the US become more economically dynamic. A lot of the arguments behind that are the same as how do we make this collection of states into one when it comes to, in this case, market competitiveness, but also with defence. So I think that there'll be lots of conversations about that. And yeah, it will take a while for that spending to translate into proper hard power. But I think 12 months on, and as I said at the beginning, after 12 months of kind of trying to work out how to approach both the Trump administration and this new world order, I think the mood at least and from my conversations is that Europeans will be a bit more forthright and that will reflect a kind of newfound confidence in their ability to perhaps throw their weight around a bit more.
Georgina Godwin
Lex, finally, before we go, if you could just give us a quick idea of what we can expect from the Monocle team on the ground in Munich. Now you've already had an event with Hitachi. What else is planned?
Alexis Self
Yeah, we had a great event last night and there was a biggish team of Monocle peeps here yesterday. Quite a few of them are leaving this morning. And on the ground here now are me, Andrew Muller and Anita Riota, the foreign desk team. They'll be recording interviews and. Sorry. And Carlotta Rebelo, our senior foreign correspondent, is here. Today we'll be doing interviews with states and high ranking military officials for the special edition of the podcast. And I'll be reporting for the website and the magazine. And then people, if you're not signed up to the Monaco Minute, do sign up right this moment because we'll be putting out a special edition Monocle Security Conference newsletter on Sunday afternoon. It's not to be missed.
Georgina Godwin
Alexis, thank you very much indeed. That's Monocle's Alexis Self in Munich and Guraana Grgic in Zurich. And as he says, the Monocle News minute. Go to monocleminute.com and it's completely free. It comes to your inbox every day. This is the Globalist. 2:12am in Washington, D.C. 7:12 here in London. Now Washington and Tehran are talking, but there is a quiet tussle over who gets to sit in the Middle. Egypt has stepped forward as a would be mediator, joining Turkey, Oman, Qatar and others trying to keep lines open as tensions rise. Cairo says it's pushing for De escalation But critics argue these talks may be doing little more than buying time while both sides prepare for something worse. So what does mediation actually achieve here? And is diplomacy still shaping events or just slowing the countdown? Well, I'm joined from Istanbul by Ruth Michelson, a journalist and Middle east correspondent. Ruth, it's lovely to have you back on the show. Why has Egypt decided now is the moment to put itself forward as a mediator between the US And Iran?
Ruth Michelson
Well, I think Egypt has played a role in these negotiations because we've seen it play a role, an increasingly assertive role on negotiations in the kind of post October the seventh world. It's a key mediator when it comes to Gaza. And so I think that, you know, as this is, that this risks being a regional conflict between the US And Iran. Iran has made clear that it will retaliate if there are American strikes and it could hit countries in the region. We've seen those countries increasingly step up and try and mediate to avert that kind of military action. Egypt is one. Qatar has been another. The Qataris have expressed deep concerns for a long time about anything happening in Iran because they fear that they could be hit again, as they were last year. The Iranians hit the Al Udeid military base, an American military base in Qatar. There is now a security agreement between Qatar and the United States that treats all of Qatar as American territory. So another strike on Qatar, which is likely if the Iranians choose to retaliate against a potential US Strike that, you know, that could be extremely risky in terms of forcing further retaliation and again, the risk of regional war. This is something that Qatari diplomats have expressed extreme fear about when I've spoken to them about this. And we've also seen similar kinds of concerns expressed by Turkish officials. Turkey initially stepped up and tried to host the first round or the latest round of talks between Iranian and U.S. officials here in Istanbul. And that was something where it was expected that there would be many more regional players joining. And then the talks were moved to Oman, which kept the focus narrow and focused on potential nuclear deal, which is very much what the Iranians want. The Americans are looking to expand it, but from the Iranian side, they want the deal or potential deal to remain very narrow in focus. And just look at their nuclear enrichment program.
Georgina Godwin
Now, we've talked about a number of countries in this mediation space. Does it matter who gets to play the role?
Ruth Michelson
I think it does in terms of the trust from both sides and the format of the talks. So what Turkey was proposing, if the talks were here was that you would have a kind of initial track of U.S. and Iranian officials very narrowly focused on this nuclear deal. And then you would have other countries in the region who could potentially bring their own set of aims and concerns to the talks, which could include things like Iran's ballistic missile program, which the Iranians have said is a red line. They won't, they absolutely refuse to discuss it, despite the pressure that we've seen, for example, from the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who said before meeting Trump earlier this week he wants to see these talks expanded to include the ballistic missile program, which could risk the talks falling apart at all. So the fact that the Omanis then stepped up and the talks were held in Oman, firstly, it meant that they were much more limited in scope. It meant that they happened more behind closed doors. It wasn't happening in the same kind of open setting where you might have just say pesky journalists like me wandering around the edge trying to look for details. And then, you know, it has an impact, that format and because of who's mediating it has an impact on the format and that's potentially going to have quite a big impact on the outcome because, you know, Iran has, has tried to make clear that they will only accept this very narrow scope. And so it gives an opportunity to secure a much narrower deal, but it doesn't entirely avert the possibility of military action. The Israelis have said earlier this week that even if there is a deal on Iran's nuclear program, they could decide independently to strike Iran's ballistic missiles on their own or even Iran's air defenses, as they did last year.
Georgina Godwin
Ruth, thank you very much indeed. That's Ruth Michelson in Istanbul now. Still to come on the programme, we.
Andrew Muller
Learned that the fifth column of woke subversive communists destroying America from within were really kicking it up a notch.
Georgina Godwin
Andrew Muller reflects on the week. This is the globalist craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights. Delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts, UBS banking is our craft. 07:19 Here in London, that's 08:19 in Paris. And joining me from our Paris studios now is Alexandra Kushner who's a journalist and a political analyst and he's here to have a look through the newspapers. Alexandra, good morning to you and we are going to start with Le Monde, which says in French politics It's already 2027. Tell us more.
Alexandra Kushner
Good morning. Well, it's only been a week since French parliament finally passed a budget up and municipal elections are actually schedul march. But For French politicians, 2027 has already started all fixated on next year's presidential elections. Parties are trying to get information while candidates have started coming forward. Seven have already officially announced their candidacy. And at least six other bigger candidates are expected to do so by April. It seems like each week brings a new one. Last week it was Socialist MP Jerome Gege who pledged to protect the welfare state. Yesterday it was conservative leader Bruno Rotaillot, who plans to, and I quote, put an to what he calls the excess of the rule of law. That should set the tone. Meanwhile, the extreme right wing leader Marine Le Pen will know on the 7th of July whether or not she will be able to run for president. That's when the court will deliver its verdict on her appeal trial. Last year she was found guilty of using 4.1 million euros of EU parliament funds to employ party staffers in France. She was banned from standing for office for five years. And should the court uphold that sentence, she will have to pass the torch to 30 year old Jordan Bardela. So a year before the election, France already has a flurry of candidates judicial controversies. So the only thing missing probably is a credible platform, a perspective on the future of the country and maybe, just maybe, solutions to actual problems. Because after three years of a hung parliament in which politician fails to adapt and craft a modern parliamentary system, political parties are going back to their presidential fixation. This idea that every five years a providential candidate will change the country's fate through sheer genius and determination. For a country so proud of having beheaded kings, France sure seems to be looking for one.
Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. Absolutely. Well, that election is a year away, but in fact there's a month, only a month to go for the Paris mayoral election. Tell us more.
Alexandra Kushner
Yes, after 12 years under socialist Annie Dalgo, Paris will have a new mayor this year. Parisians are not very enthusiastic about this election, mostly because it is so French. Politik 2026. It's messy, it's unclear, it'. Undecided. You have to imagine that there are now five contestants who could get to the second round. And going from left to right, you have the far left Insoumis who are hell bent on actually just tackling the sort of centrist left Socialist Party who's ahead. Because the incumbent for the Socialist Party used to be Ani Dalgo's right hand man.
Andrew Muller
Problem.
Alexandra Kushner
Anidal Go decided she hates him, so she's doing pretty much everything she can to make sure he doesn't get it. Now, moving on to the right, you have the current cultural minister, Rashida Dati, who should be, you know, because she's a member of government, she should be supported by the members of that government.
Andrew Muller
Problem.
Alexandra Kushner
The parties of that government are not supporting her. So she has a right wing candidate as well, by the name of Pierre Yves Bornazel, who basically nobody knows. And then you get on the far right, you have two candidates, one of whom is actually the girlfriend of Eric Zemour, and she's making strides in the poll for the first time since ever. They could be a far right contestant in the second round. What we know so far is pretty much nothing. I've told you there are five main candidates, five of which could actually get to the second round. Meaning since you don't get to directly vote for your mayor, this could be decided in a third round. I'm a political analyst and I'm already getting tired.
Georgina Godwin
So there's no person that seems particularly ahead in these polls running up to it so far.
Alexandra Kushner
The one who's ahead is the socialist participant. His name is Emmanuel Gregoire and he's credited with 33% in the first round. The problem is that if these five candidates actually get to the second round, there's no way, and there's no reason why voters would actually change their vote between the two rounds. Meaning you could get a second round that is as undecided as the first one.
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. Alexandra, how old are you and do you have children?
Alexandra Kushner
I am turning 40 in actually three weeks and I do not have children. Meaning I won't be getting that weird mail from the government.
Georgina Godwin
Tell us about this very strange communication.
Alexandra Kushner
Well, like all countries, France is facing a sharp demographic decline. That the French live longer and they have children later and. And quite few of them. There are now 1.56 children per woman in France. That's the lowest since 1918. And according to Lincet, the national statistics institute, in 2025 there were 6,000 more deaths than birth in France. This of course, has a profound impact on the economy and the welfare state. Should that decline continue, France could no longer sustain its pension system. But don't worry, the government has a plan and a solution. And that's a postcard. Earlier this week, the health Minister announced that all 29 years old in the country, both men and women, will receive a letter to raise awareness on ways to tackle infertility problems and to give them information on sexual and reproductive health. It will also encourage them to have children or freeze their eggs because in France, Social Security covers the cost of freezing eggs for women between 29 and 37. The letter that will be sent in the beginning of the summer is part of a 16 point plan to tackle France declining birth rate. And one would hope that the rest of the plan addresses issues of housing costs, economic prosperity, the imbalance of a system that profits pensioners or, you know, any actions towards a more sustainable future. Because a letter from a government headed by a childless president telling young people to just get on with it might not just do the trick.
Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. Very short sighted not to be supporting young adults as they try and reproduce with housing, et cetera. I'm sure there are plans in the works, but that postcard seems a strange way to start the effort. Let us now look at space. There'll be a French woman in space later today.
Alexandra Kushner
Yes. Today Sophie Adeno is joining the iss. Thirty years after Claudie Henire, there will be a new French woman in space. I know we tend to get, you know, not so old about the fact that there are actually people who will now be sitting on top of a gigantic missile to actually inhabit a tin can orbiting the Earth. But it is still quite the feat and it's also very fitting because today is the international day for women in science. So best of luck to Sophie Adeno in her stay in space.
Georgina Godwin
She's eight months aboard the International Space Station.
Alexandra Kushner
Yes, absolutely. And she has a packed schedule of, you know, scientific experiments, maybe patching up the space station and just looking at this, you know, so the blue bowl that we call home. And no doubt that we'll see some superb pictures as she's up there looking down on us.
Georgina Godwin
Alexandra, thank you very much indeed. That's Alexandra Kushner, journalist and political analyst in Paris. You are with the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party has secured a parliamentary majority in a landmark election that followed student led protests ending 15 years of rule by Sheikh Hasina. The result caps a stunning turnaround for BNP leader Tariq Rahman, who spent years in self imposed exile in London and comes after an uprising in which as many as 1,400 protesters were killed. President Donald Trump has moved to repeal the Obama era, finding that greenhouse gas emissions threaten public health, effectively dismantling the legal basis for federal climate regulations of vehicles. The decision announced alongside Environmental Protection Agency leadership, has triggered immediate legal challenges and a fierce backlash from environmental groups. And Australia's Liberal Party has elected Angus Taylor as leader, defeating Susan Lay. As Conservatives confront their worst polling position in decades, Taylor now faces the twin challenge of rebuilding support lost to Labour and stemming voter defections to populist rivals such as Pauline Hanson and her One Nation Party. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It's time now for Andrew Muller's weekly roundup. What we learned.
Andrew Muller
We learned this week of unhappy tidings for supporters of the 7 National Hockey League teams based in Canada. That's the goal song adopted by the Calgary Flames in the background. That is TNT by acdc. Just impeccable taste. The Calgary Flames. Big hello to all our listeners in Calgary. Hello. We learned, however, that fans of the Calgary Flames and of the NHL teams in six other Canadian jurisdictions may shortly have to find some other means of whiling away the long winter evenings. For we learned that the People's Republic of China is planning to somehow unclear on the details as of this recording, abolish ice hockey in Canada. And along with it, again, not sure how this is going to work exactly, do away with the Stanley cup, so also leaving the remaining American NHL teams with nothing to play for. And we learned this from.
Alexandra Kushner
Oh no.
Andrew Muller
Oh yes. We learned that in the course of a characteristically coherent social media post about a bridge or whatever, US President Donald Trump had relayed China's alleged, alleged threat to abolish hockey. Which we learned when we went into it a bit was actually an update of a previous meditation on this subject. Specifically, I know China very well.
Alexandra Kushner
I know President Xi is a friend of mine.
Tom Webb
I know him very well.
Alexandra Kushner
But that's a big hurdle to go over.
Georgina Godwin
When you get Canada, the first thing they're going to do is say you're.
Alexandra Kushner
Not allowed to play ice hockey anymore. That's not good.
Andrew Muller
So we learned basically that if any Canadian NHL team does want to break that 33 year Stanley cup drought north of the border, they'd better get their skates on. Is that anything but? We learned that even red, white and blue blooded all American winter athletes were not safe, especially if they insisted on actually exercising those First Amendment freedoms that seething Trumpists are forever loudly defending. We learned this from the response to US Freestyle scout skier Hunter Hess, who was one of several American competitors at the ongoing Winter Olympics in Milan and vicinity expressing ambivalence about the flag on their jacket in what we shall refer to as the circumstances.
Ed Stocker
It brings up mixed emotions to represent the US right now. I think it's a little hard. There's obviously a lot going on that I'm not the biggest fan of, and I think a lot of people aren't. Just because I'm wearing the flag doesn't mean I represent everything that's going on.
Andrew Muller
In the US and we learned that we would not need to wait long to hear from the circumstances.
Ruth Michelson
The President also called Hess, quote, a real loser and said it's, quote, very hard to root for someone like this.
Andrew Muller
Quite right. And we can surely all agree that expressing discomfort with the spectacle of masked goons employed by the state shooting citizens dead in the street is a much worse portrayal of your own country on the international stage than to pluck a completely random example out of thin air publicly taking the word of the President of Russia over that of your own country's intelligence services. But we learned that the fifth column of woke subversive communists destroying America from within were really kicking it up a notch. We learned that this, I. E. Bad Bunny's halftime show at the super bowl, which might well have given every appearance of being a witty, joyous and inclusive celebration of Puerto Rico, which could surely be enjoyed as a spectacle even by those who find Bad Bunny's actual music, if we're honest, somewhat earache inducing. Alright, alright was in fact not that, but basically the first shots of the Puerto Rican American War of 2026. And we learned this from Fox News yelper and man, of whom it is hard to know whether it would be worse if he believed any of this horseshit or didn't. Jesse Watters, especially when it feels like.
Georgina Godwin
The NFL is just using it as a marketing ploy to recruit Latin American.
Brendan von Essen
Audience on the heels of Latin America invading this country.
Ed Stocker
20 million plus pouring in and that's what you see.
Brendan von Essen
You see all these foreigners speaking a.
Georgina Godwin
Foreign language with foreign flags marching into.
Thangam Debonair
The camera like a caravan too soon.
Andrew Muller
Who we learned was righteously aghast at any suggestion whatsoever of Hispanic influence manifesting in a game played in Santa Clara, which is not far from San Francisco. But we learned that Watters was not the only American conservative, absolutely morbidly determined that Bad Bunny's performance was basically Pearl harbor, but with people dressed as trees instead of flying torpedo bombers. We learned that several Republican Congress folk, among them Mark alford of Missouri's 4th district, believe that the matter required urgent investigation. We have a lot of questions for.
Alexis Self
The entities that broadcast this and we'll.
Andrew Muller
Be talking with Brendan Carf and the SEC about this, but this could be much Worse than the Janet Jackson wardrobe malfunction.
Georgina Godwin
Let's put it that way.
Andrew Muller
To underpin the gravity of this situation, we repeat, much worse than the Janet Jackson wardrobe malfunction. Well, quite. And we learned that one of Congressman Alford's colleagues, the amusingly named Andy Ogles of the Tennessee 5th, believed matters may be even more serious than much worse than the Janet Jackson wardrobe malfunction. We learned this from a letter he sent, an excerpt of which will now be intoned with due solemnity by Monocle's sanity and normality, desk chief Fernando Augusto Pesci.
Alexandra Kushner
Children were forced to endure explicit displays of gay sexual acts, women gyrating provocatively and Bad Bunny shamelessly grabbing his crotch while dry humping the air. And if that weren't outrageous enough, the performance's lyrics openly glorified sodomy and countless other unspeakable depravities.
Andrew Muller
It would, of course, be even, even, even more serious if any, any of this was true. For Monocle Radio, I'm Andrew Mullock.
Georgina Godwin
Thank you, andrew. This is the globalist on monocle radio. It is 9:35 in Harare, 8:35 in Zurich. Well, let's turn to Zimbabwe, where President Emerson Munangagwa, now 83, is backing proposed constitutional changes that could keep him in power until 2020. Managagwa, who came to office after the 2017 coup that removed Robert Mugabe, is due to finish his second term in 2028 after two disputed elections. Well, Cabinet has now approved draft legislation that would extend presidential terms and shift the choice of president from a public vote to parliament, reopening deep questions about constitutional limits, political stability and the risk of unrest, sharpened further by the recent death of an outspoken crit blessed bombshell Gheza. Well, I'm joined now by Brendan von Essen, who's an analyst for Africa Risk Consulting. Brendan, many thanks for coming back on the show. Can you tell us exactly what's being proposed to keep Mulangagra in power until 2030 and why this is happening now?
Brendan von Essen
Yes. Hi Georgina, and thanks again for having me. So, I suppose in a nutshell, the cabinet has approved a draft legislation which will extend the president terms from five years to two years. It will enable insist that the president gets elected by parliament instead of as a direct popular vote. And even more notably, the president will appoint 10 new senators, bringing the total of the Senate to 90 senators. All of this both extends time in power, but also deepens the actual power he has. And the reason he's doing this is obviously Zim's constitutional elections are around the corner 2028 and I think both Imnangago wants to take more time to entrench his power over Zanapia itself and within the country of Zimbabwe, which was challenged by Blessed Gaza's criticism last year as well as he does not want to step down, he's coming to the end of his constitutional two term limit. And so this will both allow him to extend his term by two years to 2030, which in many ways I would argue gives him thus more time for them to push in either further constitutional changes, either removing term limits or enabling Tsarapev to then make a later argument saying that oh no, now that we've made a new constitution, the rules have reset and he can now run for two more terms. I think this is just part of a standard play by autocrats to just extend their time in power.
Georgina Godwin
I mean we saw this with Mugabe. He was in power from 1980 onwards, but then the people had a referendum and they said that actually that they voted for presidential term limits. So how is the ruling party able to, to just overturn that?
Brendan von Essen
Well, I think at its fundamental core it's that the ZF has been very effective at undermining the rule of law and the legitimacy of elections in Zimbabwe as a whole. But as a whole, yes, legally it's. A lot of observers do believe that to do this under a true constitutional change would require a referendum. Zanu PF may put this to a referendum, in which case I doubt that will be free and fair, but there's a stronger chance that they will probably just use their control over both the legislature and the heavy, heavy influence of the judiciary just to force this through. And right now I do not believe that the opposition or internal strength in Zimbabwe is able to push back and prevent this from happening. And also, quite simply, Zimbabwe gets most of its external scrutiny during election periods. So this probably won't bring as much foreign criticism, foreign excruciating scrutiny to them right now, especially given the rest of global geopolitics at the present and this will delay a point of heavy scrutiny that comes with elections by at least two more years.
Georgina Godwin
And I wonder then, I mean, if we're not going to have the African Union coming down on Zimbabwe or indeed further blanket sanctions, what might it mean for investment and the economy given, of course that there isn't a great deal of outside investment in the country apart from China, which really doesn't care about the democratic side of things.
Brendan von Essen
I, I think that actually sums it up perfectly. I think fundamentally it won't make much of a difference that investors that were skittish about ZF's autocratic tendencies and worried about sanctions and image problems and reputational damage already no longer in zim. The investors that are in Zimbabwe have already made that, made peace with that or simply never cared about that. So what I will, you will probably see is that this will just lead to Zimbabwe taking a further pivot towards China, even Russia and just general investors that may not care. I'll be more interested to see how they engage with the US if this happens during ongoing Trump administration where Zimbabwe may be able to pivot its access to critical minerals and its deep supplies of lithium and copper to maybe actually see if the US stands by its previous stance of being opposed to these kind of movements and machinations in Zimbabwe or if it'll actually just prioritize access to minerals in the very kind of transactional approach that the U.S. has adopted in the last year.
Georgina Godwin
Just, just two quick things. One, this death of the prominent critic Blessed Gezer known as Bombshell, is that politically significant?
Brendan von Essen
I think so. I suppose he was quite new and he was a senior ZANU P figure who came out and criticized Nana Gago and that was significant last year that it was many ways the call came from within the house and he said this was a bad idea year we've messed up. And I think that really resonates with Zimbabweans. And they thought there was a moment that you could see a factional push against Imangagwa and change with in Zonipf. So I think in many ways his death does rob an emerging opposition voice and one that may have been able to have some traction within Zanrepf and Zanopia voters. And I think it just leaves the Zimbabwe opposition or Zimbabwe in again a place where there is not a very strong and effective voice against the government. Right.
Guraana Gurgic
Right now.
Georgina Godwin
Yeah. I mean, previously when the government has tried to enact sweeping changes, we have seen mass movements, we've seen protests and people take to the streets. But it has been met with heavy resistance from. From the military. Might we expect similar now?
Brendan von Essen
I think there's a strong chance of that. The possibility of that is slightly weakened given the divided nature of opposition at present. But there is still a strong push from civil society and average Zimbabweans, particularly in urban areas, areas, against these actions. But as you've seen in the past, that we will see unrest. We'll probably see a very strong state response against it. But I think ZANU prayer for now prices that into their actions. I don't think any unrest will be viewed whereby the ruling party as concern and reason to change course, but rather as following the same cycle of they act the public opposition opposes state crushes down and the state pushes forward forth with his intentions all along.
Georgina Godwin
So Brendan, just given that the powers that be ZANU PF know that this is going to make them even more of an international pariah, that it's going to upset the people, why do it?
Brendan von Essen
I think in reality it is just to ensure power that like at its core I think Zanpiev is aware that as Zimbabwe's economy has continued to struggle and they've gone from from new currency to new currency with little effect, they are losing popularity and this is a way to stay in power. I think we had a point right now with the regime and the party's fundamental driving aim is its own survival and not necessarily the success of the country as a whole. And these changes do take steps to not just preserving Imran Gago's power, but expanding Zanu Puerto Rican Zanu P's power. I mean fundamentally the push for the president elected by parliament will enable Zanopev to use its advantage in rural Zimbabwe where it can definitely get a majority in a lot of constituencies and maintain its parliamentary majority to counter any possibility, the possibility of an emerging charismatic opposition leader that could then potentially win the presidential vote. Because historically that is where Zimbabwe has been at its weak. The zona has been its weakest has been the presidential election, not the parliamentary election. So this is really to my mind just zona pull of acting to preserve its own power and its own future.
Georgina Godwin
But there is no sign of a charismatic opposition leader.
Brendan von Essen
Not at present, no. But I think they are looking at the past where you did a Morgan T for a while and briefly, Nelson Chamisa emerged around 28 in the 20172018 election and obviously now he's fallen by the wayside and then there's a brief moment of blessed Gaza. So I do think that they've successfully crushed an effective organized opposition political party. But there's always the possibility of a charismatic individual that could challenge a presidential election which are that a first past post presidential system is a lot more unpredictable than having a controlled parliamentary vote.
Georgina Godwin
Well, we can only hope. Brendan, thank you very much indeed. That's Brendan Van Essen there analyst for Africa Risk Consulting. This is Monocle Radio, Ikea, EQ and AI. Three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless Passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence. All to elevate you. UBS Banking is our craft. The long list for the 2026 Women Prize for Non Fiction has been announced. Sixteen titles make the cut before the process for the shortlist begins. Well, joining me today is the chair of the non fiction judging panel, and that's Thangam Debonair, a cultural strategist and politician. Thangum, many thanks for coming on to speak to us. We come. I can't see you, but I know you've got brilliant lipstick on. It's important. I wonder if you could tell us about the overall process of whittling down to the long list. How long did it take you to read the books that were entered for the prize?
Thangam Debonair
Well, thank you so much for having me on and yes, my lipstick is absolutely on point. But much more important than that is the books, the writers and my fellow judges. We have a brilliant judging panel. I think we've worked really, really well together. We've compared notes, we have been very thoughtful and thorough in our deliberations and we had a meeting to discuss whittling down from quite a long, long list to this 16. We had very strict instructions from the wonderful Women's Prize staff. There is no alternative. You get to 16 today and they didn't have to lock the door and make us stay in. We took very considered a certain. So the first thing I'd like to say is thank you so much to my fellow judges, Nina, Roma, Nicola and Nicola, who are all incredible readers, incredible writers and very thoughtful judges.
Georgina Godwin
Do give us an overview of the longlist. It's very exciting.
Thangam Debonair
Well, we've got a real mixture of books here. We've got books that are about artists, we've got books that are about art. We have books that are memoir, but also memoir, that culture covers historical events. We have books that are about history. We have a really wide range of books for. For you to read and enjoy. Some of them are thoughtful and reflective about a particular person's experience. Others are very much third person. So as an example, we have the book Hotel Exile by Jane Roy Goiska. And forgive me, Jane, if I haven't quite pronounced your name right, I'm slightly nervous because your book, like all the other 15, is wonderful. And Hotel Exile takes a particular hotel as the vehicle through which to explore the experience of Jewish refugees in France during the Second World War. And that means that she's taking a new approach to a subject which has been written about before, but does it in a really interesting and compelling way. So it grabs you. We have Mother Mary Comes to Me by the author Arundhati Roy. That is, it is memoir, but it is also a memoir in which she uses that route to reflect on the social times of India throughout the course of her life. And that's incredibly interesting. So you can read it as a sort of a clue to one of her novels or you can read it as an expression of what it's like to be a young woman in India trying to follow your own path through that period of history. We have a book about Augustus and Gwen John, which what I love about that book is that it is about a woman artist, but not just because she's a woman artist. She's a great artist. Gwen John. And by positioning it as a book about Gwen and Augustus, both great artists, she's also able to study the really interesting subject of sibling role rivalry. So that's just three, but they're all absolutely brilliant.
Georgina Godwin
Talk to me a little bit about the wonderful Barbara Demick.
Thangam Debonair
Oh, Bamboo Grove. Yes. Now, she has done a really thoughtful job here of exploring the really painful, but I'm afraid widespread topic of forced adoption of children from babies from China. And she does this by looking at the story of, of a pair of twins who were separated when they were babies. And again, she uses this device both to explore the topic, but also to explore the. The times of India, the way, Sorry, of China, with the times that people were living in, in China. And that's a really interesting way in to a really big topic which is what's it been like to live in China over the last 50 years? So I, I can really. Obviously I'm going to recommend all of them. It's a really beautiful book. It's painful and quite a few of the books on our list do evoke emotions of pain, of sorrow, of grief, but also of joy. There are moments of joy even in the story. I won't give you a plot spoiler of what happens with these twins, but it is a really, really interesting story, thoughtful and also at moments, great, great joy.
Georgina Godwin
Now, of course, Democ has formed. She's a long established prize winning author, but there is a mix of new and established writers on the long list. How important is it for the Women's Prize to champion this, this mix of talent?
Thangam Debonair
It is important to champion a mix of talent because it isn't just the prize for new writers, but we of course want to celebrate those women who are entering the fray of non fiction. But we have some excellent writing. For instance, the Finest Hotel, the book by Lise Doucet. She's a very experienced writer and journalist and reporter. I mean, I think she's, she's on air pretty much as I speak to you, and she is experienced. But also alongside her in, in, in the longlist are some books by writers that perhaps people won't have heard of, but who've written books of equal stature, equal depth and very, very high caliber writing. So we did look at the book, the group of books, books as a whole, but that didn't mean sort of horse trading of, right, we've got two books by more established writers, let's have two by new writers. But we did look at what it looked like as a representation of the very many books that we'd read overall. And we were pleased that we'd got this mixture of long established writers and newer writers and people taking on very new subjects, with people taking a new slant on an existing, well explored subject.
Georgina Godwin
And finally, what role does the Women's Prize trust play in supporting women's voices in publishing more broadly?
Thangam Debonair
When people have said to me, do we really still need a women's prize? Do we even need a women's prize for non fiction? Because that's been quite a new one. We're only in the early years of that. It matters because go into any bookshop and count how many in the non fiction shelves, count how many books there are by women.
Guraana Gurgic
Women.
Thangam Debonair
It's better than it was. And I put that down in no small part to the presence of the Women's Prize for non fiction, which is a way of monitoring what's out there and saying guys. And it often is guys who are making these decisions. But not always, of course, people look at what's on your shelves. Publishers look at what's on your, on your lists. Think about whose voices are not getting through. You don't need to be tokenistic about this. There are some amazing women writers out there, out there, some amazing women historians, critics, journalists who can tell a fantastic tale that is also very well researched. And it's a way of saying you don't have to be tokenistic, actually, but you do have to make an effort. You do have to notice if your shelves are dominated by male writers, what is that about? And is it just that you're going for old, familiar faces and not newer voices? Or is it perhaps that you haven't taken enough care in noticing just how many amazing women writers there are in both fiction and nonfiction who are doing writing in so Many different genres. I can't speak for my colleagues on the judges panel for fiction, but I hear tales that they are also going to be announcing an amazing longlist. But we. I don't know what's on it. We've kept a sort of wall between us, we don't share. But on the nonfiction list, I've already started to see some of those books on the shelves in bookshops. I really hope that seeing the 16 publicly announced will give that a boost and encourage booksellers and publishers to look at their list, to look at what's on the shelves and think who's missing. Who else could we be commissioning, putting on our shelves, promoting, asking to come and give book talks? Yes, the 16 on our long list, we think they're amazing, but there are other fantastic women writers of non fiction that it was a struggle not to include. Frankly, it's been an amazing year for women's writing in nonfiction.
Georgina Godwin
Thangham Debonair, thank you so much. Thangham is the chair for the non fiction judging panel at the 2026 Women's Prize. The shortlist will be announced on 25 March, and the winner announcement on the 11th of. This is the Globalist. And finally, on today's show, we head to Milan, where our team is covering the Winter Olympic Games. So I'm joined now by Monocle's Europe Editor at large, Ed Stocker, and Monocle's deputy head of radio, Tom Webb. I understand the two of you are going to bid a fond and emotional goodbye today, Tom.
Tom Webb
I'm actually going to stay. We're saying farewell to Ed and as part of your daily weather report, we've got quite a show out the window of the 47th floor. We can finally see the mountains. The low level cloud that's been hanging over the Olympic Games here in Milan has finally lifted. So goodbye to you, Ed.
Ed Stocker
Yeah, I feel like, you know, this is definitely a message from up above. I feel, you know, something's just. It's a message somewhere there, but it is, it is picking up on what Tom said. It is quite incredible. It's been quite grand and drab. We've been quite jealous of the. Everyone being in Cortina and other mountainous locations as we've been here. But today you get reminded about Milan being a mountain city, essentially. You know, when you're down at sea level in this city, you can forget. But up on the 47th floor, we can see just how near the mountains we are and we can see the full, you know, canopy of snow Dusted mountains today. It's incredible. Incredible.
Tom Webb
Now taking us down to street level with a local. I've been dying to ask you this, Ed. How has the Games transformed the city? Because for me, I'm experiencing it as a visitor and it just feels so electric.
Ed Stocker
It is amazing. Actually, it's quite funny because we were speaking to the CEO of Allianz Italia yesterday. He came up and we had a chat and, you know, he was saying, you know, a few days before, you didn't really know Olympics was the Olympics was happening because Milan is a very business focused city. You know, he was saying, people say buon lavoro. Have. Have a good work sort of thing, instead of saying hello, which is not quite true. But I get what he means. You know, people are very focused on that. And then something just happened. A few days before the Games, the mood changed. Suddenly you noticed all these things about the Olympics. Olympics, and of course, the fact that there are people from all over the world. You know, this is an increasingly international city. More and more people have moved here from overseas. So it's changing in that respect. It's definitely the most international city in Italy. But then in terms of sort of a big, you know, crowd from overseas coming here, I guess that tends to happen for the design fair in April. And so we're seeing it again, again with this, a different crowd, a sports crowd. But we've just seen. It's been amazing to see very enthusiastic pump people from all over, from the Netherlands to Canada, who are coming to support their teams. And I think another interesting thing is with all the sporting events that are happening obviously right here in Milan, we've had the speed skating, we've got the ice hockey, other ice dancing and things like that. I know you were there, Tom, but there's also a range of other events. There's so much happening. There's dinners, there's exhibitions, there's loads of things to check out, you know, other brands also getting involved. We might be going to an event later today from Nike, who's relaunching its outdoor brand in a great space called Spazio Miocchi. That's normally used, often used for Design week. Tom, what's been your feeling? Because I know you've been rushing around. You've managed to pack a lot in. You even saw the quad God, who we talked about on the radio yesterday in practice. Tell us about that.
Tom Webb
Such, such an honor. Yeah. The feeling that I've been getting from the city is such a positive one. Although we're wedded to the 47th floor here in Allianz Tower. I've been out and about. I've been with the mayor's office. Yes, Milano, Milano partners. I've been asking them about their reaction to the Games, if they think it's going well, and they just can't believe how smoothly it's going. They did tell me their big worry was the opening ceremony, and they just can't believe that they pulled it off so immaculately. Something they're very proud. Proud about. It is a difficult Winter Games. It's. It's not very accessible. There's a high price point. Most of the tickets are sold out, but if you are lucky, you can go to some of the practices and the rehearsals. Steph, the sound manager opposite me, we managed to get Euro 30 tickets to watch the Men's Fix figure skating. All 24 of them packed in half the stadium because they didn't staff it. And we did see the quad God, and that is, of course, Ilya Malin for the United States. And he did his backflip. We didn't think he was going to do it, but he did his backflip, which is something that has been banned from the Olympic Games in the past. You can do it now. I recorded the moment. You can't see it, but you can hear it. That was a. Obviously a very special moment. And half the stadium did erupt and stand on their feet. And I heard goosebumps. And it's those moments that really bring the Games to life. Ed, you've had your own experiences and you talk about going out to Nike, talk about going to hockey. What's been your highlight?
Ed Stocker
I mean. I mean, actually, if I'm going to be honest, if I'm allowed to say it, it's been hosting the show for a week. It's been amazing because I'll tell you why, Tom. You know, living here, it's like I said before, it's a principal city in Italy. It's getting ever more international, but at the same time, it's a kind of small, manageable size. And if you do live here for a while, you get to know a lot of people here in the creative industries and elsewhere. And so it's been nice getting a lot of people that I know a bit, that I see sometimes socially, that I've interviewed in the past back on the radio and sort of, you know, just getting together a really interesting collection of people for the radio. So it's been great. I think we should maybe do a monocle in Milan more often. Why? Why keep it to the Olympics. Let's make it a regular thing.
Tom Webb
It is going to be regular. We're continuing next week with Andrew Miller as the host. We have a really packed show for your final show today coming up in just over an hour's time, including the Finnish Snowboard association and let's be honest, Finland haven't been having the best games. We are going to be talking more about it on the briefing. Tyler is joining to do a five ring bounce around five correspondence and the soft power of the nations he will be representing at Canada. Ed, are you going to represent Italy?
Ed Stocker
It looks like I'm going to be representing Italy. I wanted to talk about Great Britain's medal woes, the fact that they haven't won. But there is a chance in the skeleton later this evening that they will do so maybe I'll talk about Italy and Britain. I'll combine the two.
Tom Webb
Listen to Monica and Milan in the next hour and the briefing at midday UK time. It's back to you, Georgina.
Georgina Godwin
Many thanks there to Tom Webb and to Ed Stocker. And just a reminder of course, that Monocle in Milan is every day, every weekday and that's at 9 lond time. That's all for today's programme. Thanks to our producers Angelica Jopson, Chris Chermak and Hassan Anderson, our researcher Anneliese Maynard and our studio manager, Christy o', Grady, with editing assistance from Steph Chungu and Elliot Greenfield. As I say, Monocle in Milan coming up live at 9am London time. The Briefing live at midday in London and the Globalist will return on at the same time on Monday. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.
Episode Theme:
A live, globe-spanning current affairs roundup focused on the outset of the 2026 Munich Security Conference, Europe’s evolving security posture, Middle East diplomatic jostling, a looming constitutional shakeup in Zimbabwe, front-page politics in France, cultural celebrations of women’s nonfiction, and Winter Olympics dispatches from Milan.
This episode delivers timely insight into “what’s on the agenda at this year’s Munich Security Conference”—examining Europe’s growing strategic autonomy, reactions to American global posture shifts, regional mediation struggles in the Middle East, democratic backsliding in Zimbabwe, and urgent domestic questions in France. Cultural stories and live Olympic impressions round out the program.
Key Segment: [04:20–12:11]
Context:
European leaders convene in Munich amid anxiety around the US's waning commitment to NATO and global security. The drama intensified when the US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, skipped the latest NATO Defence Ministers meeting, sending policy chief Elbridge Colby instead.
Highlights:
Monocle’s On-the-Ground Coverage ([11:18]): – Monocle’s team is on-site for interviews with state and military officials and sharing updates via dedicated newsletters.
Key Segment: [13:29–18:14]
Context:
As US–Iran tensions simmer, Egypt joins a crowded field of regional mediators including Turkey, Oman, and Qatar.
Highlights:
Key Segment: [19:33–26:42]
Context:
Alexandra Kushner, from Paris, reviews the current issues gripping French politics.
Highlights:
Key Segment: [35:06–44:02]
Context:
President Mnangagwa’s cabinet approves draft legislation to extend his rule until 2030, shifting the presidency from direct vote to parliamentary selection.
Highlights:
“The big question this year is how forthright the Europeans will be in their criticism of the Trump administration.”
– Alexis Self ([04:20])
“Mark Ruta is always busy trying to find excuses for the Trump administration… but the United States won’t be focusing on Europe.”
– Guraana Gurgic ([05:46])
“For French politicians, 2027 has already started… parties are trying to get information while candidates have started coming forward…So a year before the election, France already has a flurry of candidates judicial controversies. So the only thing missing probably is a credible platform.”
– Alexandra Kushner ([19:33])
“This is just part of a standard play by autocrats to just extend their time in power.”
– Brendan von Essen on Zimbabwe’s president ([36:19])
“Because a letter from a government headed by a childless president telling young people to just get on with it might not just do the trick.”
– Alexandra Kushner on France’s birthrate postcards ([24:00])
“It is important to champion a mix of talent because it isn't just the prize for new writers, but we of course want to celebrate those women who are entering the fray of non fiction.”
– Thangam Debonair ([49:50])
Olympic moment:
“We did see the quad God … Ilya Malin … did his backflip ... half the stadium did erupt and stand on their feet. And I heard goosebumps. And it's those moments that really bring the Games to life.”
– Tom Webb ([57:16])
Maintains an informed, cosmopolitan, occasionally witty style—serious when warranted (security, democracy), dry or playful in review or satire sections.
This episode captures a world in flux: Europe bracing for defense autonomy, the US reevaluating commitments, regional powers jostling in the Middle East, democratic norms under threat in Zimbabwe, and Western societies wrestling with identity, demographics, and representation. The reporting is wide-ranging, global, and vividly observed, with cultural coverage and lighter moments (Olympic feats, literary awards) providing balance and humanity. The show’s original tone—worldly, nuanced, occasionally arch—shines throughout.