The Globalist (Monocle) — July 30, 2025
Episode: While the US threatens tariffs, Russia has been busy bypassing sanctions
Host: Georgina Godwin

Episode Overview

This episode of The Globalist covers major global stories of the day, focusing on the aftermath of a massive earthquake off Russia’s Kamchatka coast, Washington’s escalating tariff threats amid shifting US-Russian relations, Russia’s adaptation to sanctions, and evolving positions on Palestinian statehood. The show also features analysis on European military mobility, the Thai-Cambodian ceasefire, turmoil in Polish politics, and a lively tour through Alpine news, cultural controversies, and a dash of aperitivo inspiration.

Key Discussions and Insights

1. Russia’s Kamchatka Earthquake and Tsunami Warnings

[00:03–05:47]

• Context: An 8.8 magnitude earthquake hits off Russia’s Kamchatka coast, triggering tsunami warnings across the Pacific.

• Reporting from Tokyo (Fiona Wilson):

  • The quake is “the most powerful earthquake in 14 years... the sixth largest ever recorded.”
  • Warnings across Japan’s east coast; evacuations underway.
  • “It's a series of waves... the first wave may be smaller, so you can't be complacent.” (Terry Stiastheny, 03:19)
  • So far, waves have been under 1 metre, but threat remains “for another 24 hours or more.”

• Russia’s Reaction:

  • Charles Hecker notes, “Surprisingly... there’s very little news coming out of Russia,” reflecting the remoteness and low population of Kamchatka, and Moscow media downplaying the story.
  • US West Coast and Hawaii are on high alert, with cruise ships moving to deeper water as a precaution.

2. US Tariff Threats and Russian Sanctions Evasion

[05:47–12:54]

• US Policy:

  • Under Trump, US threatens secondary sanctions targeting countries buying Russian oil (notably India and China).
  • Charles Hecker: “President Trump has very little leverage... if he were to tariff Russian trade with the United States, he'd be tariffing next to nothing.” (06:38)
  • Hecker explains how going after Indian and Chinese buyers would “completely throw... trade negotiations off track” and spike global oil prices.

• Russia’s Response:

  • Notably, Russia is introducing university degrees in “sanctions compliance,” signaling long-term adaptation.
  • “The Higher School of Economics... is offering a master’s degree called International Corporate Compliance and Business Ethics... the way this is being interpreted in Russia is that this is going to be a course on sanctions evasion.” (Hecker, 08:46, 09:26)
  • Economic cracks are emerging: banks face bad loans, car sales plummet, and civilian industries decline—though military spending is protected.
  • “The most pressing concern right now is the Russian banking sector and the amount of bad loans that are out there.” (Hecker, 10:31)

• Price of Oil: A complete shutdown of Russian oil would have an “immediate and tsunami-like” effect on the global economy.

  • “[The] impact for the global economy will [be] immediate and tsunami like.” (Hecker, 12:26)

3. European and Middle Eastern Diplomacy: Palestine Recognition

[12:54–21:56]

• UK & France Set Timetable for Recognizing Palestine:

  • Britain’s PM and France declare plans to recognize a Palestinian state by September unless Israel changes course.
  • Adla Massoud (The National, NY): “The UK is on a pathway to recognize the state of Palestine by September... hoping Israel would agree to a ceasefire, if not, then in September... they’ll follow France.” (14:00)

• Two-State Solution:

  • “The Palestinians want a state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip... territory captured by Israel in the 1967 war.” (Massoud, 15:06)
  • Administered by Palestinian Authority, demilitarized, no role for Hamas emphasized.

• Symbolism vs. Reality:

  • Recognition primarily symbolic—actual change “will not help alleviate the suffering of the Gazans,” as basic needs remain unmet. (Massoud, 17:16)
  • US and Israel boycott the UN summit; US calls it “counterproductive,” Israel says it “deepens the illusion.”
  • French and British recognition could diplomatically isolate the US, as Russia and China already recognize Palestine.

• Domestic UK Politics:

  • “There are more than 200 MPs... saying that now is the time to say that the UK is going to recognize a Palestinian state...” (Terry Stiastheny, 23:48)
  • Conservatives oppose the move, Liberal Democrats urge immediate recognition without preconditions.

4. European Defense Readiness: NATO’s Road Woes

[20:36–32:31]

• Infrastructure as a Strategic Weakness:

  • EU’s transport networks—roads, bridges, rail—are described as a bottleneck for military mobility.
    • “It could take up to 45 days for EU member states to secure permission to move equipment across borders.” (Jack Simpson, 30:46)
  • Germany’s central position accentuates the issue given its “aging bridges and roads.”

• NATO Doctrine at Risk:

  • “How can Europe credibly promise rapid reinforcement if its roads and bridges buckle under the vehicles it needs in combat?” (Gabrielle Steinhauser, 31:54)
  • EU proposes €17bn investment—but urgency is stressed ahead of any real crisis.

5. Thailand-Cambodia Ceasefire Tensions

[32:31–38:47]

• Ceasefire Holds, But Only Just:

  • “Thai military is accusing the Cambodian side of continued violations... the Cambodian side... says the ceasefire is holding.” (Gabrielle Steinhauser, 33:35)
  • Displaced Cambodians exceed 100,000; livelihoods severely disrupted.
  • Conflict origins are unresolved; border disputes and political family feuds persist.

• Role of US Tariff Threats:

  • Trump-linked economic threats credited with getting both sides to negotiate—especially impactful for Thailand.
  • “US pressure and... economic threats... certainly contributed to getting the two countries to the negotiating table.” (Steinhauser, 35:33)

6. Polish Politics: Reform Blocked and Coalition Strains

[38:47–44:11]

• Government Setback:

  • “Whole plan was predicated on... Rafał Trzaskowski would win [the presidency]. They don’t have a plan B.” (Alex Szczerbiak, 39:48)
  • President’s veto blocks major legal reforms, especially over the judiciary.

• Public Dissatisfaction:

  • Government accused of being focused on “revenge rather than results,” failing both on economic policies and progressive reforms. (41:04)
  • Coalition stability threatened as parties focus on survival over unity.

• Donald Tusk’s Future:

  • Tusk’s leadership is “safe” for now but could change if prospects fully dim: “He might himself stand down if he feels that defeat is certain.” (43:21)

7. Alpine News: Culture, Tourism, and Cheesestrife

[45:13–52:45]
With Chris Chermack and Terry Stiastheny

• Austria: Salzburg Festival Protests

  • Non-violent Gaza protests disrupted opening, security failings revealed due to insider assistance.
  • “They were led to where they needed to go by somebody who knew the exact terrain...” (Chermack, 47:59)

• Vienna: Spanish Riding School Scandal

  • School head charged with embezzlement for family-expensed trips (“about €15,000”—Chermack, 49:16)

• South Tyrol: Touristy Train Discount Fail

  • Public transport discount codes intended for tourists leaked to media, forcing cancellation.

• Cheese Wars:

  • Swiss sue EU to protect Emmentaler cheese origin, facing Austrian protestations.

8. Aperitivo Culture: World Spritz Day

[54:05–58:40]
With Giuseppe Gallo (Italicus CEO)

• Spritz Defined: “The spritz is... light, refreshing... low in alcohol with bubbles and sparkle.” (Gallo, 54:05)
• Why Spritz is Global: “It ticks all the right boxes... low in abv, simple to make, incredibly versatile.” (Gallo, 54:34)
• Mixology as Art: “Bartenders use cocktails to craft an expression experience... it's artistry in every glass.” (Gallo, 55:13)
• Modern Twists: Bergamot and orange wine reinventions (Italicus, Savoia Orange), with recipe tips.
• World Spritz Day: Celebrated August 1.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The impact for the global economy will [be] immediate and tsunami like.”
  — Charles Hecker on secondary sanctions and oil markets [12:26]

• “You can't be complacent. And basically the whole of the Pacific coast of Japan... is on tsunami warning.”
  — Georgina Godwin, on disaster response [03:29]

• “The irony is... this is going to be a course on sanctions evasion.”
  — Charles Hecker, on Russia’s new degrees [09:26]

• “Recognizing a Palestinian statehood will not help alleviate the suffering of the Gazans... this is just really symbolic.”
  — Adla Massoud, on UN moves [17:16]

• “How can Europe credibly promise rapid reinforcement if its roads and bridges buckle under the vehicles it needs in combat?”
  — Gabrielle Steinhauser [31:54]

• “It does sort of raise a lot of questions... what is that two state solution that you are then proposing if there isn't a second state?”
  — Terry Stiastheny, on the paradox of conditional recognition [21:56]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Russia earthquake & Pacific tsunami alert: 00:03–05:47
• Russia finances, sanctions, US tariff threats: 05:47–12:54
• Palestinian statehood recognition – UK & France: 12:54–21:56
• Europe’s military infrastructure woes: 20:36–32:31
• Thai–Cambodian ceasefire: 32:31–38:47
• Polish government stalls: 38:47–44:11
• Alpine/cultural news & Cheese Wars: 45:13–52:45
• World Spritz Day, aperitivo culture: 54:05–58:40

Tone & Style

The episode blends Monocle’s international, urbane sensibility with sharp political analysis, dry wit, and a distinctive focus on nuanced diplomacy, cultural affairs, and lifestyle trends.

Summary by Monocle’s newsroom — your essential briefing from around the world, through the lens of The Globalist.