Terry Stiastheny (3:27)

The first wave may be smaller, so.

Georgina Godwin (3:29)

You can't be complacent.

Terry Stiastheny (3:31)

And basically the whole of the Pacific coast of Japan, almost the whole coast.

Georgina Godwin (3:36)

Is on tsunami warning now, which means that people have been advised to evacuate the beaches, obviously, but also to go to higher ground. And I'm told that waves are already starting to hit Hokkaido.

Terry Stiastheny (3:47)

Yeah, they have seen waves. I mean, the warning is for waves of up to 3 meters. So far we haven't seen waves that big. They've been half a meter, 60 centimeters.

Georgina Godwin (3:57)

But as the scientists keep telling us.

Terry Stiastheny (4:00)

You know, it can change.

Georgina Godwin (4:01)

And it's really going to be an alert situation here, they think for another 24 hours or more. Fiona, thank you very much indeed. Well, Charles Hecker is also with me. He's a Russia analyst and author of Zero Sum the Arc of International Business in Russia. Charles, what's the news coming out of Russia about this earthquake?

Charles Hecker (4:19)

Well, surprisingly, Georgina, there's very little news coming out of Russia. I mean, a scan of the Russian papers fairly up to the last minute shows that, you know, Moscow's largest, one of Moscow's largest tabloid newspapers, Moskovsky Komsomolets, has dedicated a full three paragraphs to this phenomenon. And this may be reflective of a few things, and that is that first of all, Kamchatka, the peninsula that is Russia's last landmass before you get to Alaska, is a full nine hours ahead of Moscow. Number one, so it's quite remote. Number two, it's very, very sparsely populated. The administrative capital of the region, Petropavlov skamchatsky, has about 160,000 people. And while the nature in that region is absolutely stunning as far as population and economic activity, it's not a prominent feature in the Russian business and political landscape.

Georgina Godwin (5:14)

And Charles, your other home, the US west coast, big warnings there, too.

Charles Hecker (5:18)

That's right. In fact, on the way to the west coast from Kamchatka, Hawaii is in a state of very high alert. Governor Josh Green has put hospitals on alert. He's ordered an evacuation from low lying areas. And Hawaii is a very popular cruise destination. There's news that ships in the ports of Hawaii have left for deeper waters. It is apparently safer to be out on the sea than to be in a shallow port in the event of a tsunami.

Georgina Godwin (5:47)

So, Charles, let's now turn to Russia's finances where too there seems to be a bit of an earthquake. The economy once appeared surprisingly resilient under sanctions, but cracks are showing. The central bank is slashing interest rates amid slowing growth. Bad loans are piling up. Most civilian industries are in decline, and yet Putin remains laser focused on military spending. In the middle of all of this, Donald Trump has set this new 10 day deadline for imposing harsh secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. Now, that's a move aimed at India and China that could upend global markets and further squeeze the Kremlin's war chest. Moscow, for its part, seems to be preparing for the long haul, even launching university degrees in sanctions compliance. So let's start with this, this deadline. Why the sudden escalation from Trump?

Charles Hecker (6:38)

That's right. President Trump once gave the Kremlin 50 days. Just a couple of weeks ago, he said he's going to give Russia 50 days to stop the war in Ukraine. Otherwise he's going to impose, I think he said something like tariffs and stuff on Moscow. In a recent sort of fit of pique, he has shortened that deadline to 10 to 12 days. He said that a couple of days ago. So we have a week or so left until Trump threatens to crack down on Russia. The problem here, Georgina, is that he has very little leverage and very little room for maneuverability. If he were to tariff Russian trade with the United States, he'd be tariffing next to nothing. Economic activity between the United States and Russia has crashed from a fairly low level to begin with. I mean, the United States does a tiny fraction of the business with Russia that it once did. And also compared to what Europe once did with Russia. That's the first thing. The second thing is that what President, President Trump is threatening and the biggest economic hammer that he has, is to impose secondary sanctions on countries that are buying Russian oil. There are two very big problems with this that will really prevent the effective implementation of any sort of plan along those lines. The two biggest buyers of Russian oil are India and China. We know that trade negotiations with both of those countries in the United States are fragile and ongoing. And any way of punishing those countries economically would completely, completely throw those trade negotiations off track. The other thing is that if you try to take Russian oil off the market by punishing its buyers, what happens is you threaten a spike in the cost of oil globally because for better or worse, the flow of Russian oil into markets is essentially a buffer against a price spike. President Trump has very little room for maneuverability here.

Georgina Godwin (8:33)

Well, we've seen Russia scrambling to build long term resilience in the case of these actions. One of the more striking developments is the new academic degrees in sanctions compliance.

Charles Hecker (8:46)

You have to look at this with a certain amount of cynicism and a sense of irony. The Higher School of Economics, which is one of Russia's, well previously was one of Russia's more prestigious universities, is offering A master's degree called International Corporate Compliance and Business Ethics. This is supposed to be the first of a kind. I mean, there have been classes on compliance and business ethics, although I should note that there is no Russian word for compliance. And the expression that they use is compliance to basically describe the process of remaining within international law and regulations when conducting business. What this is a signal of, I think the fact that for 490,000 rubles, which is about a little bit more than 4,000 pounds, a little bit less than $6,000, you get a two year program. And what this is telling us is that Russia is settling in for, as you suggest, the long haul, that sanctions will be with Russia and against Russia for the foreseeable future. And that businesses in Russia and international companies that do business with Russia, of which there still are quite a few, they need to understand this landscape better. The irony is that the way that this is being interpreted in Russia is that this is going to be a course on sanctions evasion and that really studying the sanctions environment on Russia is a way of trying to learn to get around it.

Georgina Godwin (10:15)

And we've also seen the government pump money into the military. So while civilian sectors are floundering, I wonder how widespread the economic pain is. The banks are sounding alarms, car sales are plunging, there's talk of asset seizures. Is the pressure really beginning to bite here?

Charles Hecker (10:31)

Yeah, it is. I mean, I think that the, you know, look, the Russian economy, the death of the Russian economy has been forecast, you know, since the very beginning of the full scale invasion on Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions. And I think there's been a great deal of disappointment in how long it's taken for sanctions to bite. Because part of the whole compliance culture is that companies doing business with Russia and in Russia have been avoiding sanctions for years now and continuing to trade through loopholes. But I think that the most pressing concern right now is the Russian banking sector and the amount of bad loans that are out there. Interest rates are starting to come down in Russia from a peak of 21%, and that's meant a lot of very bad loans on Russian banks. Books. And so if there is the canary in the coal mine of the Russian economy, I think we have to look at the pressure on the banking sector.

Georgina Godwin (11:24)

Are we on the edge of a recession?

Charles Hecker (11:27)

So far, the Russian economy has been. There was a point a couple of years ago when the Russian economy was growing more faster than the British economy, but yeah, the recession signals are there. It's a concern. But Putin continues to pump money into the military sector, and that's what's got the Russian economy going for now.

Georgina Godwin (11:48)

And finally, Trump has obviously walked back on his threats before. As you say, there's almost nothing he can do here. Should we believe him this time?

Charles Hecker (11:58)

Well, I think, you know, we can believe perhaps his declaration that he's frustrated with President Putin, but I don't think that we can believe that he packs much of a punch on this. I mean, I really just don't think that President Trump has much room for maneuverability. And whatever he does to Russia, whether you're studying international compliance and business ethics or not, Russia will be able to work around.

Georgina Godwin (12:23)

And of course it's gonna affect global oil prices.

Charles Hecker (12:26)

That's right. So all eyes on the price of global oil to see whether these secondary sanctions, which I don't think they'll be enacted, but if they are, how much does that tighten global supply? And in this case, I really don't think that there is much of a workaround. If you shut down Russian oil completely, as difficult as that may be, the impact for the global economy will immediate and tsunami like.

Georgina Godwin (12:54)

Charles, thank you very much indeed. That's Charles Hecker, Russia analyst and author of the book Zero Sum, which is indeed all about the arc of international business in Russia. This is the globalist. France has said that it will recognise the Palestinian state in September, with the UK vowing to do the same and unless Israel makes peace. Britain made the announcement midway through the long delayed UN conference yesterday. The body is meeting this week to revive the two state solution for Israel and Palestine. But with the US and Israel boycotting the meeting, can it achieve anything beyond symbolism? Well, I'm joined now by Adla Massoud, New York correspondent for the national newspaper. Adla. Many thanks for joining us on the show. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer made the formal announcement here in London, but the UK's foreign secretary, David Lammy, is at the conference in New York. What did he say there and what was the initial reaction when he was.

Adla Massoud (14:00)

Basically he was delivering his remarks at the General assembly and he announced that the UK will be recognizing Palestine. There was, you know, member states, delegates there stood up and there was a whole big round of applause. He told the General assembly first and then he spoke to reporters afterwards. He said basically what he told reporters is that the UK is on a pathway to recognize the state of Palestine by September. He said he always believed that there's no better vision for the region than the two state solution and that basically they're going to see what happens in the coming eight Weeks. And you know, they're hoping that, you know, Israel would agree to a ceasefire, if not, then in September. If that doesn't happen, if things don't change on the ground, then, you know, they'll follow France and recognize Palestine as the state.

Georgina Godwin (15:00)

What exactly is the two state solution and what land are Palestinians seeking for their state?

Adla Massoud (15:06)

The two state solution is a proposed framework for resolving the decades old Israeli Palestinian conflict by establishing two states for two peoples. Which means the Palestinians want a state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip. This is all territory that was captured by Israel in the 1967 war, war with the neighboring Arab states. So basically the two state solution would finally grant the Palestinians their dream of self determinations.

Georgina Godwin (15:41)

And how would it be administered and by whom?

Adla Massoud (15:44)

So it would be administered by the Palestinian Authority, it will be demilitarized and they don't want Hamas to have anything to do with it. And this is something that will be included in the outcome document from this conference here that's happening here at the un.

Georgina Godwin (16:04)

Are there any actual concrete proposals on the table?

Adla Massoud (16:09)

Well, I mean, they're like so part of the outcome document. I mean they're proposing normalization between Arab states and Israel. They're they, and then they're proposing recognition of the Palestinian statehood and they're saying, and then for the first time they're going to be a lot of Arab states that will be condemning Hamas and also basically that Hamas has nothing to, will have nothing, nothing to do with the new Palestinian states. But you know, so far, I mean, this is all very symbolic. Like you said, the main actors, which are the US and Israeli are boycotting this conference. So the US called the meeting counterproductive to its efforts in seeking a ceasefire. And also yesterday a State Department spokesman described it as a gift to Hamas. And the Israeli ambassador said on Monday, this conference does not promote a solution, but rather deepens the illusion.

Georgina Godwin (17:03)

Now France says it will recognize a Palestinian state in September and late yesterday the UK said it would do the same. How could that affect Palestinians on the ground, particularly in Gaza?

Adla Massoud (17:16)

No, I mean, it's just purely symbolic. Again, you know, recognizing a Palestinian statehood will not help alleviate the suffering of the Gazans. You know, obviously all they want is to eat, drink and be free of any kind of killing. I mean, this is just really symbolic and this conference is really focusing on the day after. So they're hoping, I think they've been optimistic. They're hoping that there will be a ceasefire and then they can all meet up and declare a two state solution. But it doesn't look like this is going to happen because Israel from the beginning said they are not interested at all in a two state solution. Israel wants a one state solution.

Georgina Godwin (18:06)

Now, obviously France and Britain want to persuade other countries to follow suit. Who's likely to do that and would it set up tensions with the us? We've just had a hard won trade battle resolved between the UK and the US and also the EU and the us. Will we see Trump increasing tariffs as a political weapon as he's done over Thailand and Cambodia, Syria?

Adla Massoud (18:30)

Well, they're hoping, the French are hoping that because, you know, they're the first G7 nation to recognize Palestine. So they're hoping that the UK will follow suit. So if, when you think about the Security Council, you have the P5, the permanent five members. So if you have France that has, will recognize Russia and China have already recognized Palestine. So if you have the UK who recognizes Palestine, that will isolate the US Now, I don't know, honestly, I don't know to what extent Trump is willing to go. It's not clear.

Georgina Godwin (19:08)

Could international pressure by France and Britain and others actually shift Israel's military approach or will it just harden positions further?

Adla Massoud (19:18)

I don't think, I mean Israel has, you know, they have a plan and, and so far they proved that nothing will stop them from reaching their goals. They're going to continue with what they're doing whether France recognizes Palestine or not or other states. But I think as long as they're backed by the US so nothing will stop Israel from doing what they're doing.

Georgina Godwin (19:47)

And Adler, finally you're actually on the ground. You've been observing the meeting. What's the atmosphere like?

Adla Massoud (19:52)

Like, I mean it's, I mean it's, it's the, the French seem very hopeful. The, the Saudis haven't been as outspoken as the French yesterday. But the only thing yesterday the Saudi foreign minister told reporters that he, they believe that the, the key to a ceasefire is really Trump, but they do believe that we have to prepare for the day after, which is this is why they're having this conference.

Georgina Godwin (20:27)

Adler, thank you very much indeed. That's Adla Massoud, New York correspondent for the national newspaper. Still to come on the programme, Germany.

Alex Szczerbiak (20:36)

Has acknowledged, given its central location, that its aging bridges and roads could be a roadblock to the continent's defence.

Georgina Godwin (20:43)

More on that in just a moment. This is the globalist craft is its own reward. Which is why at UBS we're honoured to work alongside over 50 of today's leading Nobel Laureates each an expert in the art of economic science, bringing you engaging discussions, actionable insights and inspired solutions, all focused around the questions that shape our world today. For a better outcome outlook, find a Nobel perspective. UBS Banking is our craft. Let's continue now with today's newspapers. And joining me in the studio is Terry Stiastheny, who's a political journalist and the author of Believable the Misfits who Fought Churchill's Secret Propaganda War. Your most recent book, it's just come out. Congratulations on that. We'll need to talk about that at some point soon. Now though, let's get more on that UK announcement that the country will recognize the state of Palestine in September, but subject to various conditions. Can you explain what's going on?

Terry Stiastheny (21:56)

Yes, there are quite a lot of conditions that Keir Starmer has put on both sides which have ended up slightly with a paradox. So the conditions on the Israeli side, what the UK wants Israel to do is to say that they would sign up to a two state solution, that they would allow the UN to supply aid and that Israel would agree to a ceasefire. And there are conditions on Hamas as well. They're saying that the Hamas leadership should not take any part in the government of Gaza, that Hamas also should agree to a ceasefire and return the hostages. But it does raise the question that what happens in the fairly unlikely event that Israel were to accept those terms? Because if Israel then suddenly says we accept the idea of a two state solution, Britain's respons response is therefore supposed to be, then we don't recognize the state of Palestine. So what is that two state solution that you are then proposing if there isn't a second state? So it does sort of raise a lot of questions. And the reaction, obviously the reaction from Israel has been to condemn this idea, to suggest that this is encouraging or rewarding terrorism. And Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying that he thinks, you know, Britain itself could be under threat as a result of this. Domestically, the conservatives are saying that they don't think this is the right time to go ahead and recognize the idea of a Palestinian state, whereas the Liberal Democrats in the opposition also are saying that they should go ahead and recognize this immediately without conditions.

Georgina Godwin (23:31)

And I mean, what it has done for Starmer, particularly listening to his very strong words on this at the top of the program, is it's kind of brought him some domestic support and some time here. People were getting very, very angry here about the fact that he had not said anything. They felt that sufficiently condemned Israel.

Terry Stiastheny (23:48)

Yes. I mean I think what there had been was certainly pressure from within the UK Cabinet. A lot of ministers, people like Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary had been pushing for this. So there had been a gradual move within Cabinet and also on the backbenches. I mean there are more than 200 MPs, not only Labour MPs, but a large number of Labour MPs have been saying that now is the time to say that the UK is going to recognize a Palestinian state or at least set out the steps towards that. So certainly in terms of domestic political pressure, there is a move there. You know, we'll have to see how this plays out internationally and at the un.

Georgina Godwin (24:27)

Let's cross to Australia now. And there's a proposal that YouTube accounts will be banned for under 16s and they're suggesting a raft of other measures on social media. Can this possibly work?

Terry Stiastheny (24:39)

I think this is a really difficult one because it's very interesting looking elsewhere in the world as well. The UK's Ofcom which regulates media has just said that for young people, people born since 2010, so those under 16s, YouTube is the first place that young people, children go to watch television. They don't switch on the TV, they watch everything on, on YouTube, so cartoons or whatever. And I don't know if that's exactly the same in Australia, but Australia seems to be saying that children now can't have a YouTube account. And I think, you know, certainly for, for many parents of, of young children that would be quite problematic, you know, because, you know, if you can't have an account that's for your children, if they have to watch through your account, surely you're more likely to end up with watching content that's suitable for adults. If you can't have it on a sort of children only platform. But I think it's quite interesting how far Australia is going with it. So the Financial Times reports the comments from the communications minister, which I think is a very Australian analogy, if you like said. It's like trying to teach your kids to swim in the open ocean with the rips and the sharks to comparing to the local council pool. We can't control the ocean but we can police the sharks. And that's why we will not be intimidated by legal threats when this is a genuine fight for the well being of Australian kids. And those legal threats are, you know, threats from YouTube and from other social media companies that they would then sue the Australian government because they believe that this is unfair.

Georgina Godwin (26:05)

It's quite an extraordinary row and one that Australia is not alone In. I mean, a lot of people are looking at this. Let's have a look at this story, which I love from the times. Britain's first female astronomer Royal in 350 years.

Terry Stiastheny (26:21)

Yes, I think Professor Michelle Doherty sounds like quite an interesting character. Character and also an amazing scientist now. So this role, the Royal role of Astronomer Royal was originally created by Charles II in 1675, and it was originally to map the heavens, to help people calculate longitude at sea. She doesn't have to do that anymore because Michelle Doherty says that she's born in South Africa and her sense of direction sucks. She said, my excuse is I was born in the Southern hemisphere, so the sun is always in the wrong place, which you will understand.

Georgina Godwin (26:51)

Do you know, that's exactly, exactly the excuse that I use. Yeah, absolutely.

Terry Stiastheny (26:55)

She's confused by that. She is not confused, however, in her scientific career, because she is very eminent and she has been working at Imperial College London since 1991. And she discovered a shock discovery of giant plumes of water spurting like geysers out of Saturn's icy moon enceladus in the 1990s. And she's working on other projects, looking at Jupiter and sending sort of probes out to Jupiter to explore the moon there. But I like. She's got a nice perspective on this, which maybe you do if you're professor of space physics and everything is impossibly huge. So when she was asked by the Times if she might work on. On further space missions beyond 2035, and she's in her early 60s now, she said, hell no. It takes 30 years for these things to happen. In 20 years, I plan to be sitting in the sunshine drinking wine. I like drinking wine. Now, as you can see, there's a wine fridge in the corner.

Georgina Godwin (27:48)

Fabulous. She sounds like an amazing woman. Finally, why on earth do people still go to Venice in the summer? I mean, I just don't understand it. It's horrible.

Terry Stiastheny (27:58)

Then, I don't know, I went there at New Year's and it was pretty crowded, but it was still lovely and a bit less crowded. But, you know, when you're watching the fireworks, it is absolutely rammed. And if you get in sort of in a crowd in narrow alleys in Venice, it's. It's a little bit scary, particularly with firecrackers going off. But, yeah, the reason we're talking about this is there is a story about a proposal to increase the fee in Venice for day trippers. So they've had an experiment where they prop sort of 5, 5 to €10 for day trippers this year. And one of the people leading the local Residents association in St. Mark's Square, who also runs a shop, has said there should now be a hundred euros entry fee because he thinks that there are so many people coming to Venice, going around just sort of on tours, not actually spending any money, not actually buying anything. And he feels that the businesses are being harmed. But you know, this is the ongoing argument really, isn't it, about over tourism? You know, what about the places that everybody wants? But you know, people don't want to spend necessarily all of their time or of their money. And how can you actually live and work in a place like that?

Georgina Godwin (29:03)

Absolutely. Terry, thank you very much. That's Terry Stiastheny, political journalist and author of Believable the Misfits who Fought Churchill's Secret Propaganda War. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Donald Trump says he may skip November's G20 summit in South Africa, citing very bad policies and signaling plans to send a representative instead. The president has clashed repeatedly with Pretoria over its land reform, support for Palestine and accusations against Israel at the International Court of justice. After two days of constructive talks in Stockholm, US and Chinese officials agreed to seek a 90 day extension of their fragile tariff truce, but the final decision rests with Donald Trump. No major breakthroughs were reached, but both sides hinted at a future meeting between the leaders of both countries and pledged to keep communications open. And Germany is planning a massive defence spending spree, including orders for thousands of armored vehicles and 20 Eurofighter jets as part of Chancellor Friedrich Mertz push to build Europe's strongest conventional army. The move aims to reduce reliance on the US and marks a major shift in German military posture with defence spending set to hit 83 billion euros by 2020. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned now for a look behind the headlines. Here's Monocle's newsletter editor, Jack Simpson on why Europe's roads are not ready for war.

Alex Szczerbiak (30:46)

For all the talk of drones and precision guided munition systems, land wars are still won or lost on the the ground as Europe starts to take its self defence more seriously by ramping up its domestic manufacturing of military hardware. Production is only half the battle. Currently the continent's roads, railways and bridges are ill equipped to facilitate a proper defence, the EU's transport chief warned yesterday. His comments echoed lessons gleaned from a report by the European Court of Auditors earlier this year which found that was it. It could take up to 45 days for EU member states to secure permission to move equipment across borders. Concerningly, this bureaucratic gridlock is matched by the dire quality of Europe's mobility infrastructure, which cannot cope with the heavy armored vehicles or military payloads that defence will necessitate. Germany has acknowledged, given its central location, that its aging bridges and roads could a roadblock to the continent's defence.

Adla Massoud (31:46)

NATO's doctrine of deterrence by reinforcement rests.

Gabrielle Steinhauser (31:50)

On the premise that forces can flow.

Adla Massoud (31:52)

Rapidly to under threat areas.

Gabrielle Steinhauser (31:54)

Yet how can Europe credibly promise rapid reinforcement if its roads and bridges buckle under the vehicles it needs in combat?

Alex Szczerbiak (32:03)

That's Guarana Gurgi MONOCLE SECURITY Correspondent the European Commission has sought to address this need with the proposed 17 billion euro investment in its 2028, 2034 budget. But Europe cannot afford to skimp. If NATO and EU countries are forced to mobilise their tanks and artillery across the continent, their own roads may prove the vital pothole.

Georgina Godwin (32:31)

That was Monocle's newsletter editor, Jack Simpson. And for more from Monocle's editors and correspondents around the world, do sign up for our free daily newsletter, the monocle minute@monocle.com minute a tentative calm is holding along the Thai Cambodian border after five days of deadly fighting. Generals from both sides met face to face on Tuesday, agreeing to keep the peace, halt troop movements and help the displaced return home. But with reports of early violations, questions remain over whether the ceasefire can truly stick, especially from the Cambodian perspective. Well, joining me now from Singapore is Gabrielle Steinhauser, who's the Wall Street Journal's Southeast Asia bureau chief. Gabrielle, many thanks for coming on the program. Can you tell us about reports of fresh skirmishes overnight and how both sides are responding to these claims of violations?

Gabrielle Steinhauser (33:35)

Right. So what we've heard from the Thai military is that it is accusing the Cambodian side of continued violations of the ceasefire, mostly through light arms. So there's been some talk of gunshots and grenades that they say have been used at several places along the border in violation of the ceasefire. It is important to note that the Cambodian side has denied that this and is saying that the ceasefire is holding. And I think it is also important to note that we haven't seen the use of this sort of very heavy weaponry, from artillery to jet fighters to drones and even Thailand's navy that really characterized those first five days of heavy fighting.

Georgina Godwin (34:22)

Now, the generals or the key military figures met on Tuesday. What came out of that in terms of the sort of three main ceasefire agreements reached?

Gabrielle Steinhauser (34:34)

I would say that those meetings were largely supportive of the ceasefire and certainly built some confidence, especially considering some of the statements that had come from the Thai military side overnight and early in the morning. But what we are very far away from state still is any kind of solution to the broader dispute around this border, which goes back more than a century or really any clear answers on what started the fighting in the first place and what led to this rather well publicized at this point, breakup between the two families that have dominated politics in both countries for the last two decades or so.

Georgina Godwin (35:20)

What started and of course, what ended it, because Donald Trump is taking the credit for this, saying that he would impose punitive tariffs, tariffs on both countries unless they came to a ceasefire. Can he really claim the credit?

Gabrielle Steinhauser (35:33)

Well, so he didn't say that he. Well, you know, the tariff threat obviously predated this conflict, but he made, you know, further talks on reducing these tariffs that are due to come into effect in a matter of days on a ceasefire. I don't have great insight of what happened in the meeting in Malaysia, Asia on Monday, but I think it is important that a US President decided to get involved in this conflict that is somewhat marginal on the broader international stage, where most people are preoccupied with Gaza and Ukraine. So I do think that the U.S. pressure and these pretty important, important economic threats, especially for the Thais, certainly contributed to getting the two countries to the negotiating table, which they had been reluctant to do in the days that preceded the meeting and preceded calls from the president.

Georgina Godwin (36:37)

We've heard quite a lot from our correspondent in Bangkok, and I'm interested in the tone from Phnom Penh and the situation now for displaced Cambodian civilians. Are they returning and what are they being told by the local authorities?

Gabrielle Steinhauser (36:50)

Right. I think we have a lot less, a lot less information of what's actually happening on the Cambodian side. I mean, there's certainly a lot of speculation that the actual death toll on that side is much higher than what has been officially confirmed and disclosed. What we do know is that, you know, more than 100,000 people and sorry, more than 100,000 Cambodians have been forced out of their homes by IS fighting and that the people who have been displaced come from an area that is already one of the poorest in all of Cambodia, which is one of the poorest countries in Asia, and that certainly people being taken away from their farms, from their businesses is creating a lot of strain on already pretty strained livelihoods.

Georgina Godwin (37:44)

And finally, Gabrielle, what signs are there that this conflict might flare up again, either politically or military, militarily?

Gabrielle Steinhauser (37:52)

Well, I think that the most obvious signs is the fact that the Thai military saying that the ceasefire isn't actually holding. And then I think the broader question is that the broader reason or the broader is that the two sides haven't agreed on the border. Right. And they haven't agreed on who has the claim to these temples. The Cambodians, which has. The Cambodian side, which has taken some of these claims to the International Court of Justice is persisting with that case which the Thais have rejected. And then we, like I mentioned earlier, don't know what is happening between the two, you know, these two very powerful families that had been friends for decades until this very public breakup and rupture.

Georgina Godwin (38:47)

Gabrielle, thank you very much indeed. That's Gabrielle Steinhauser in Singapore. She is the Wall Street Journal's Southeast Asia bureau chief. You're with Monacal Radio. It's 7:38 in London, 8:38 in Warsaw. Poland's pro European government has hit a wall after losing the presidency to a conservative rival. Donald Tusk faces years of obstruction from the top, a stalled reform agenda, sliding poll numbers and open tensions within his coalition. Can the government regain momentum or is it just now managing decline? Well, I'm joined now by Alex Szczerbirak, who is author of the Polish Politics blog. Alex, thanks for coming. Coming on the show, how damaging was the presidential election defeat for the government and what key reforms are now off the table?

Alex Szczerbiak (39:48)

It was very damaging indeed because their whole plan was predicated on the idea that their candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafa Traskovsky, would win. And it's become very obvious that they don't have a plan B to know what to do in this situation. The problem is the president has a veto of legislation and the government doesn't have the three fifths majority in Parliament necessary to overturn it. So there's key items of its legislative agenda, perhaps most importantly its plans to undo the judicial reforms introduced by the previous government. The right wing law and justice government, as a result of which thousands of judges were appointed, that the government doesn't recognise. The legitimacy of these plans will now be scuppered because the President doesn't accept these, wouldn't accept anything that undermines those judges. Just as importantly are the political dynamics, dynamics that this has set off. Mr. Navrotsky pitched the election as a referendum on the government. This is how it was widely seen. And as a result of him winning that election, the government now finds itself politically very much on the back foot.

Georgina Godwin (40:55)

So why did public support drop so sharply? I mean, is it frustration with policy or a sense the government's more focused on revenge rather than results.

Alex Szczerbiak (41:04)

I think it's a bit of both. I mean, I think there's a wide perception that the government didn't introduce the reforms, the policy promises that it was elected on. And this has frustrated a wide range of different people. People who, for example, were expecting very large tax cuts which were in the government's program, but also people on the liberal left who are expecting the liberalization of the abortion law or the introduction of state recognition for same sex civil partnerships. The government has tried to introduce what it calls a reckoning of alleged abuses of power by its predecessor. But again, here, on the one hand, some people think that this is just revenge polit or just displacement activity. On the other hand, people who actually support this kind of reckoning don't feel that the government has pursued it with sufficient vigour. So in a sense, it's kind of got the worst of all worlds. It's annoyed a lot of people who aren't its natural supporters, but also people who voted for it and are quite sympathetic to it, but simply don't think it's delivered on the agenda that it promised.

Georgina Godwin (42:06)

And how stable is the coalition at this point? I mean, could we see parties break ranks to protect their own interests?

Alex Szczerbiak (42:13)

I think that the show is probably going to stay on the road. I think that, I mean, one of the kind of the glues that holds Polish political formations and governments together is access to state appointments and patronage. This is very powerful coherer of Polish political formations and governments. And I think this will keep the government on the road. I think also the fact that they are themselves worried about the kind of reckoning that law and justice might introduce if they got back into power. But I think the problem for the government is that the component parts of it are now going to be focused on their individual survival strategies. In other words, trying to shore up their own support in anticipation of an overall defeat at the next election rather than the common interests of the government. And we're already seeing that. And I think the problem is not whether the government will survive the full term, I think it probably will, but whether it will decompose steadily and become much more divided and incoherent. And I think that unless they can change the political dynamic, that's the process that's likely to happen.

Georgina Godwin (43:14)

And finally, is Donald Tusk likely to stay on? I mean, could he consider stepping aside to protect his legacy?

Alex Szczerbiak (43:21)

I think he could. I think at the moment his position is safe, not least because there's no obvious alternative to lead the government. I mean, as long as he wants to stay on as leader, I think that he can do, I think that he might himself come to the conclusion if they're to going definitely going to lose the election, as you say, you know, to protect his political legacy, he wouldn't want to finish with a definite defeat. And I think, unfortunately, I mean, the government really needs a game changer if it's going to change the political dynamic. And it looks increasingly like the only game changer that could actually have a chance of changing that dynamic is a change of Prime Minister. So although for the moment Mr. Tusk is safe and there's no sign that he's planning to resign, he's made it absolutely clear he's not. I wouldn't rule that out before the next general election. Indeed he might, might himself stand down if he feels that defeat is certain.

Georgina Godwin (44:11)

Alex Szczerbiak, author of the Polish Politics blog. Thank you very much indeed. This is the Globalist on Monocle Radio with ubs. You have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that, that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS banking is our craft. Well, it's time to talk Alpine news now with Monocle Senior news editor Chris Chermack who joins me here in the studio. Chris, I have to admit to being slightly disappointed. I thought you were going to be wearing a little natty Tyrolean hat.

Chris Chermack (45:13)

You know what, I actually also have a cowbell from Austria that I, that I really should have brought in to ring while we were doing this, this segment. I mean there's many ways that I could put on my Austrian hat, as it were.

Georgina Godwin (45:25)

So I mean, what percentage of Austrian are you? You actually.

Chris Chermack (45:29)

Oh, I am half. I mean we can put it that way. My father is Austrian so I, I have a half Austrian. Of course there's a whole mix there. So actually. Yeah, well that's a whole long story, Georgina, if you don't really want to get into that. My grandmother was part German Polish, so there's German, Polish, Czech and Austrian basically in there. There's, there's a whole mix.

Georgina Godwin (45:48)

There's a whole mix. Right, well let's, let's go to Salzburg because the very well known festival there has had some protests about Gaza, but it turns out that they probably had insulted.

Terry Stiastheny (45:58)

Yes.

Chris Chermack (45:59)

So first of all, incidentally, this is my father's hometown, so why not go to Salzburg first? But the Salzburg of Festspiele are this big annual event right, in Salzburg. It's such a huge thing, happens over five weeks there every summer. And yes, there were protests that disrupted the start, the opening of this over the weekend. And this has caused a big sort of kerfuffle in Austria. Both, not so much even the fact that there were protests over Gaza. They were of course the, they were, of course, they were non violent. This was a protest that sort of disrupted the opening speech of the Deputy Chancellor of Austria, Babla. But the fact that they even got in, that was a huge security issue. Right. Because of course this is a major event and the idea that somebody could get in was a big question. And it does turn out now there's been sort of additional information released that yes, they had insider help. They were led by somebody who was likely a former employee who also maybe let them in through one of the doors. So this idea that there was such lax security that they had claimed initially, these protesters, they simply got in through an open door in the back in order to get in is apparently not true. They were able, they were let in, they were led to where they needed to go by somebody who knew the exact sort of terrain, if you will, to get to the main opening festival bit. So, yes, this has caused a lot of issues in Austria, as you can imagine, just around the security. The officials for the Salzburger Festspiele have assured that they are ready, they were ready for any security risks going into this. Also the risk of protests. But nonetheless it's caused some concern. This festival continues for five weeks.

Georgina Godwin (47:37)

Is this the same festival that the von Chuck family performed at?

Chris Chermack (47:41)

Yes. I mean, the Salzwagen Festbiele are a huge deal. Absolutely. This has been going on since 1920, so it's been going on for a long time. Every year there's operas and songs. There's an opera that's always played, or there's a play called Jedemann about the death of a rich man that is sort of one of the main ones that always comes, kicks things off. But there are also new operas that are played at this. It's something that my family frankly go to as well. My aunt and uncle are there most years. So it's just, it's a big event for Salzburg and for Austria in general.

Georgina Godwin (48:09)

I mean, I guess not just a frivolous von Trapp comparison. What I was getting at was it wouldn't have been the first Time that there was a protest speech from. From the stage, if you remember what Christopher Plummer said.

Chris Chermack (48:20)

That is a good point. It is actually something that typically does have some kind of political element to it, if you will. As I say, the Vice Chancellor Babla gave a speec. Open up. Actually, Ann Applebaum of the Atlantic also gave an opening speech. So they do add a certain political element. And even Babla, for that matter, using his platform when these protesters spoke, he's gotten into some criticism in Austria because he said to them, let's have a conversation. Let's make this an open platform. Don't disrupt this, but let's have a conversation. Whereas others are saying, hey, if you are a security risk to an event, you should not be offered. The far right Freedom Party has said he shouldn't have offered this sort of olive branch. Yes. Salzburger Festspiele are a little bit about politics as well. They always have been.

Georgina Godwin (49:06)

Right. A big row. The Spanish Riding School in Vienna, which really does absolutely embody the phrase storm in a teacup, I think.

Chris Chermack (49:16)

Well, yes, and I also wanted to just talk about the Spanish Riding School, because I love the Spanish Riding school, Georgina. The Lipizanas, the Lipizana horses, the white stallions that are so famous there. They still practice this very traditional equestrian training and so on and sort of performances, skills that they do. It's a style of dance that goes back to the Middle Ages. I did my first essay on the Spanish writing school back in. Back in school when I was about 11 years old. And there is this funny sort of controversy right now because the leader, the head of the Spanish Rhine school, Alfred Hutler, is behind being charged by the Agriculture Ministry for basically embezzlement, for a breach of trust for what totals a grand total of about €15,000, basically. He sort of did some lavish trips. He sort of added weekends to his business trips. He brought his family, his wife and children along on business trips. But this was enough to actually cause the Agriculture Ministry, which is responsible, this is a government institution in Vienna, in Australia, Austria, to actually bring charges against him for possible breach of trust and embezzlement. So it is causing a bit of an issue in Austria.

Georgina Godwin (50:31)

Is he going to have to go? I mean, can he stay?

Chris Chermack (50:33)

We will see. He has denied the charges. So he says, of course he did nothing wrong. We will have to see. I mean, there is that innocent, prudent, till proven guilty thing, but we will see if he can hold on. He is, as I say, it is a government institution, sort of semi independent, but not really. It's the agriculture ministry in charge, so. So we'll see what happens.

Georgina Godwin (50:51)

Right, over to Sud Tyrol now and the train discounts that never were.

Chris Chermack (50:56)

Yes, I thought this was just an interesting story of how tourism tries to revive itself and then fails, basically, in South Tyrol there's a lot of tourists at the moment. We've talked about over tourism so many times on this show and others. And as it turns out, in South Tyrol they were trying to encourage people to use public transport. And. And what they tried to do was anyone who books a hotel in South Tyrol will get a discount on public transport and was given a code in order to do that to try and encourage them use the trains, don't use your car, et cetera. Except that the local media then published this code so much that basically anyone who was going to use public transport could use this code and get a discount. So within two days of the launch of this in mid July, they had to cancel the whole thing thing once again. Which I mean, does make me wonder, I mean, why not just keep it? Why not just allow people to travel with public transport a little bit more cheaply and do that and allow that to happen so that there are less cars on the roads. But nonetheless, the tourism authorities decided, nope, this is too much. We. This will cost us too much money. We're getting rid of it again.

Georgina Godwin (52:03)

Well, finally, let's. Let's have a look at the cheese wars that I believe you'll be delving into later on today.

Chris Chermack (52:10)

We will be be delving into this on the briefing, so stay tuned for noon London time. It's going to be a big battle between me and Desiree Bandly in Zurich because the Swiss are suing the European Commission or bringing them to the European Court of Justice, basically saying that Emmentaler cheese is Swiss. The Austrians deny this. They say, no, we have also been producing Emmentale for a long time. The Swiss basically want the Austrians to say Emmentale from Austria, but not the actual Emmentale. This is going to be a big fight between me and Desi on the briefing.

Georgina Godwin (52:45)

Well, I wish you luck in defending your national pride there, Chris, now that we have established you are Indeed at least 50% Austrian. Exactly, Chris Tomat there. Monacle's senior news editor, Sans Hatt. Sadly, this is the Globalist on Monacal Radio. Now to wrap the show with a bit of sparkle. World Spritz day is on the 1st of August, and from Hackney rooftops to the Amalfi coast, aperitivo culture is having a major moment The Spritz has become the world's most ordered cocktail. According to Drinks International's annual brand report, Spritz style serves are among the fastest growing globally with a 43% increase in menu presence across leading venues in the past year alone. Well, Italicoose CEO and founder Giuseppe Gallo joins me now. Giuseppe, thanks for coming on the show. I'm so sad you're not here in person because we could be sampling your wares, but I wonder if we could just start with the basics. What makes a drink a true spritz?

Giuseppe Gallo (54:05)

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for having me. What makes a spritz? The original name is derived from from the white wine spritzer, an Austrian tradition of adding a splash spritzer of soda water to a glass of white wine through spritz. It's light, refreshing and a typical low in alcohol with bubbles and sparkle.

Georgina Godwin (54:28)

And so why do you think the spritz has taken off globally in such a big way?

Giuseppe Gallo (54:34)

I like to say that the spritz is the new generation and tonic is taking off globally because it ticks all the right boxes for the today's drinkers. It's low in abv, it's simple to make, it's incredible versatile and it's effortless and enjoyable. Whatever. Using a citrus forward aperitivo like Italicus Rossoli di Bergamoto or a richer style of vermouth like Savoya Russo, the spritz adapts to any moment the season a personal taste in making the ultimate modern cocktail.

Georgina Godwin (55:07)

So you've called aperitivo liquid art. That's a wonderful description. What did you mean by that?

Giuseppe Gallo (55:13)

When I call aperitivo a liquid art, as a former bartenders, I'm speaking to the creativity and expression that embodies. Just as an artist use a canvas to evoke emotion and tell a story. Bartenders use cocktails to craft an expression experience blending flavours, aroma and ascetic into something that both sensory and cultural. It's artistry in every glass.

Georgina Godwin (55:38)

Tell us a little bit about your company Italicus. How did you reinvent the spritz with bergamot?

Giuseppe Gallo (55:45)

Italicus is the first ever spritz brand that brought the bergamot citrus flavor into cocktails. Therefore, we have reinvented the spirits for modern days. Aromatic elegance of Calabrian Bergamot Orange is essential oil, a beautiful lifted by the bubbles, creating a citrus forward floral aperitivo that both refreshing and tasty. A true invention of the classic spritz.

Georgina Godwin (56:12)

And tell us about Savoir Rosso Because I understand that's just been crowned the world's best aperitif.

Giuseppe Gallo (56:18)

Correct. Savoyo Rosso was born under the COVID It was designed to simple liquids that you can make cocktails at home accessible to everyone. To make an experience for the aperitivo, we set out to create a single product that matched the complexity of the bitter from Milan at the depth of sweet vermouth from Turin. Meaning that it can be served simple over ice or used to make esprit or Espellaro cocktail. Even a Negroni without the need of multiple. Its flavor profile is rich, balanced with a slightly bitter aftertaste.

Georgina Godwin (56:55)

And that's not the only one. You've also got Savoia Orancio.

Giuseppe Gallo (56:59)

Yes, it's the newest one. Savoyo Rancho is the first of its kind to be made with orange wine at the base. And it was inspired by the travel of Marco Polo and his journey to Silk Road. And he plants the Mediterranean botanicals with exotic bitter spice such as saffron and red tea.

Georgina Godwin (57:20)

If somebody wanted to build the perfect spritz at home, what's your no fail formula? How should we go about it?

Giuseppe Gallo (57:29)

Well, I have two options. The first one, the most simple one, is that Italico spritz with the Bergamot one part of Italico de Bergamoto to one part of Prosecco or Champagne over ice in a white wine glass, garnish with three salty olives from south of Italy. Or alternatively the rose spritz with Savoyo Rancho. One part of Savoyo Rancho vermouth, one part of rose sparkling wine over rice in a white wine glass, garnish with three fresh grapes.

Georgina Godwin (57:59)

They both sound absolutely delicious and amazing. So, World Spritz Day. I had no idea this was really a thing. It's the 1st of August, right? How did that come about?

Giuseppe Gallo (58:10)

As the popularity of the spritz spread all the around the world. Also, we have a celebration for the spritz day on the 1st of August. And we will celebrate with a nice beautiful Savoyo Rancho spritz to celebrate the recent wins, including the gold taste ever cocktail in your knees last week and the three star at the Great Taste Awards just yesterday. One part of Savoy Rancho to one part of rose packed wine is the perfect spritz for for the 1st of August.

Georgina Godwin (58:40)

Giuseppe, thank you very much indeed. That's Italicus CEO and founder Giuseppe Gallo, who will be celebrating with the spritz on World spritz day on August 1st. And I dare say I will be joining that celebration and tapping a glass up to him and all those who bring us these fabulous drinks. Now, that's all for today's programme. Thanks to our producers, Chris Chermack and Tom Webb, our researchers, Henry King and our studio manager, Flynn Simons. After the headlines, there's more music on the way and the briefing, including the Cheese wars, will be live at midday. In London, I'm Georgina Godwin and I'll return on the Globalist at the same time tomorrow. Thank you for listening, Sam.