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- [00:04]
Georgina Godwin
Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 6th October 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with UP.
- [01:08]
Chris Sabatini
Hello.
- [01:09]
Georgina Godwin
This is the Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, you will work like draft horses. I myself will throw away the phrase work, life, balance. I will work and work and work and work and keep on working. That was Japan's newly elected leader of the ruling LDP party, Sanae Takaichi, who's likely to be the next Prime Minister. Redefining national ambition as permanent overtime. We'll explore what the country might look like under the so called Iron lady of the East. There are elections too in the Czech Republic which could sweep controversial right wing former PM Andre Babitszbach to power, but there are serious doubts he'll be able to form a government. We'll rustle through the papers and have a hit of Latin American news then.
- [02:00]
Bruno Kaufmann
The committee responsible for the Peace Prize in Oslo demonstratively kept its calm, as I discovered during a visit to the Nobel Institute in Oslo.
- [02:12]
Georgina Godwin
Prepare for Trumpian triumph or tantrums as we look ahead to Friday with the Nobel Peace Prize is announced. It'll be wheels up as we taxi through the week in aviation and beating the sewage in the Windy City. Chicago celebrates its first river swim in over 100 years. That's all ahead here on the Globalist live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Hamas and Israeli officials are in Egypt for U S backed talks aimed at halting the Gaza war and securing the release of remaining hostages. Russia has launched one of its biggest overnight attacks on Ukraine, killing at least five people and knocking out power across several regions. And a federal judge has blocked Donald Trump's plan to send 200 California National Guard troops to Portland, pausing his effort to deploy the military over local opposition. Do stay tuned to Monaco Radio throughout the day for more on those stories now. Sanae Takaichi won Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election on Saturday, defeating rival Shinjiro Koizumi in a runoff vote. The 64 year old Conservative politician will take over from Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned after the ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 70 years. Takaichi is expected to be formally appointed prime minister on October 15, but she faces significant challenges governing without a majority in either house of parliament. Well, I'm joined now by Tomohiko Taniguchi, who's former special advisor to the cabinet of Shinzo Abe. Tomohiko, it's lovely to have you back on the show. What kind of politician is Sanae Takaichi and how is her victory being received in Japan?
- [04:08]
Tomohiko Taniguchi
Sanae Takaichi is admittedly a protege of the late Prime Minister, inheriting some of the policy items such as economic policy and conservative policy about monarchism and social institutions and so forth. She is very much a self made person. Financed her high school and university tuitions on her own by moonlighting a lot of jobs, and she's a motorcyclist at the age of 16, and at the age of 17 she was a drummer of a punk rock band. But over the last 30, 40 years, she's been known as an encyclopedic, a possessor of encyclopedic knowledge of policy issues. The challenge for her is to develop a broader vision broad enough to encourage not only the people, but more specifically her own members, her own colleagues, members of the ldp, because as you say, the LDP for the first time in many years has lost its majority in either house, lower and upper.
- [05:30]
Georgina Godwin
And how is that going to affect her ability to govern? And can she automatically become Prime Minister?
- [05:37]
Tomohiko Taniguchi
No, she's not going to be automatically become a Prime minister because technically, if you have a broad strong coalition across the opposition parties, then chances are some of those members of the opposition may be elected. But at the moment, there is a deep fault line among the opposition parties about many issues. So as a result, the head of the relatively big party that is the ldp, Sanae Takaichi, is going to be in fact elected at the end of the day as Japanese Prime Minister.
- [06:19]
Georgina Godwin
And what are the notable policies that she's advocating?
- [06:23]
Tomohiko Taniguchi
The difference between the candidates was shown in their respective attitude to the fiscal policy. Sanae Takaichi has repeatedly mentioned that growth is what counts. Fiscal prudence may be important, but it is secondary if compared to generating growth. Whereas some other candidates are more for fiscal prudence. When it comes to foreign and national security policies, for instance, about the United States, Japan alliance or what should be done vis a vis China, there is little actually discrepancy among the candidates.
- [07:08]
Georgina Godwin
What about her social stance on things like LGBT relationships, women not keeping their maiden names, and other very conservative takes.
- [07:17]
Tomohiko Taniguchi
On how people live, for instance, the names. She has done a lot to keep the names of the women as they are after marriage. She's not for changing those social norms and customs by introducing legislative bills. For her, living happily with a lot of people with different sexual orientations is very much an important factor, but she's not for passing legislative bills to make the change, you know, very much a solid one.
- [08:07]
Georgina Godwin
You said, of course, that she has close ties to the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in terms of her political philosophy. How closely does she remain to his position?
- [08:17]
Tomohiko Taniguchi
Let's just define what Shinzo Abe's policies were. It was basically about realistic when it comes to economic policies, realistic when it comes to trade relations with China, for instance, but also realistic in looking at how weak and vulnerable Japan is in its own neighborhood, surrounded by three nuclear armed, hostile nations of Russia, North Korea, China. So when it comes to the importance of Japan strengthening Japan, when it comes to the importance of Japan continuing to invest into allies and partner nations, there is absolutely no difference between the two. Takaichi and Abe. So may I say there are more similarities between the two.
- [09:15]
Georgina Godwin
And talking about foreign relations, is this significantly going to change Japan's relationship with China and with South Korea?
- [09:23]
Tomohiko Taniguchi
I would not think so. But she's been known to be very much friendly to Taiwan and she has frequently visited Taiwan. So Beijing has been extremely cautious, naturally. But she, as Prime Minister, she knows that she has got to strike a fine balance between Japan's national security concerns and economic imperatives. That is to say, Japanese companies and businesses have got huge stakes in China and South Korea and Japan have been undergoing a very much softening period, if you like, between the two nations. And I think it's far better for her to continue this smoothie relationship with South Korea than making it troublesome.
- [10:11]
Georgina Godwin
Do you think that she can reunite the ldp? Can she reinvigorate the party? And what does her victory then mean for Japan's political landscape?
- [10:20]
Tomohiko Taniguchi
Right now, there is no answer, no tangible, easy answer to your question. Come. There will be two parliamentary sessions, diet sessions, one in October, November, and then December and another January until through June next year. And those were the. Those would will be the windows of opportunity for her to show her own ability to lead the LDP and then make an ad hoc coalition one after another with middle ground, moderate opposition parties. So she needs to show to the nation and to the party members how capable she is in forming and building coalition on an ad hoc basis. It's like shooting a flying object. And I think it's going to be difficult for anyone, be it Takaichi and whoever else. So we will see.
- [11:27]
Georgina Godwin
Tomohiko, many thanks for talking to us. That's Tomohiko Taniguchi, who is former special advisor to the cabinet of Shinzo Abe. This is the globalist. It is 811 in Prague, 711 here in London. In the Czech Republic, right wing populist Andrej Babi is plotting a political comeback. His ANNO, or ANO movement won around 35% of the vote in the parliamentary election this Saturday, well ahead of the ruling coalition, but still short of a majority. The billionaire businessman who led the country once before from 2017 to 2021, faces a tough path back to power with most mainstream parties refusing to work with him. He's also fighting fraud charges and a potential clash with the President over conflicts of interest. So what does his return mean for Czech democracy, for Europe and for Ukraine? Well, I'm joined now by Rob Cameron, a journalist based in Prague. Good morning to you, Rob. Let's start with who is Andre Babic and what kind of politics does he represent in today's Czech Republic?
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Rob Cameron
Very good question. Andrej Babis is a man who has been at the centre of Czech politics for the last 12 to 13 years. He was a billionaire businessman when he entered politics. At that time, when he founded Anno, he was, I think at that point the second or the third richest man in the country, and he's now perhaps the ninth. He describes Anno as a catch all party, a party that appeals to all voters. And certainly he, he has hoovered up voters on all sides of the political spectrum. When he was in government that first time around with the centre left social Democrats, he basically hoovered up, sucked up all of their voters. So now the center left in the Czech Republic essentially no longer exists. If you're center left or even some people on the hard left, then you vote for Mr. Babbi. But equally, he has now tacked to the right very much. He co founded the Patriots for Europe pro sovereignty group in the European Parliament alongside Viktor Orban of Hungary last year. And he has taken increasingly populist positions on the European Union on, say, military support for Ukraine. But that said, he remains fundamentally committed, he says, to the countries anchoring in the institutions of the west, of the Euro Atlantic Alliance. And he has already ruled out categorically the prospect of this country holding referendums, say, on leaving the European Union or NATO So that's where he sees his country.
- [14:28]
Georgina Godwin
As you say, he hoovered up most of the votes, but he still lacks a majority. So how much power does this really give him? And can he really have a single party government as he wants, backed by smaller right wing groups? Is anybody going to work with him?
- [14:42]
Rob Cameron
Well, it's a very good question. It's very much a double edged sword. He does want a minority government because he's an executive politician. He likes being in control. He hates being in parliament and spending hours discussing things with MPs. He'd much rather have his finger on the pulse and run the country and the government like he runs his huge food and chemicals empire. But that said, as you say, he only has 80 seats in the 200 seat lower house. So he will need allies to survive a confidence vote in Parliament and to get his legislation through. And seeing as the outgoing government, the parties of the outgoing centre right coalition government will not work with him, or at least they say that now he will, it seems, form some sort of alliance with these two parties on the fringes of Czech politics. One is a Eurosceptic anti green deal party called the Moto Motorists for themselves and the second is an anti immigrant Eurosceptic party called the SPD run by a half Czech, half Japanese businessman called Tomio Okamura. They didn't do as well in the elections as they wanted, so they're in less of a position to dictate things to Andrej Babis and force him to the far right. But they still are needed for him to survive in parliament and he knows that.
- [16:09]
Georgina Godwin
What's his position on Ukraine?
- [16:12]
Rob Cameron
It's quite nuanced I think, as he definitely tacked to the right and he did employ increasingly anti Ukrainian rhetoric in the dying days of the electoral campaign. But that's just politics really. I don't think he has that strong feelings about it. He certainly, you know, rejects calls from the far right elements in his potential coalition or minority coalition allies when they say let's expel Ukrainian refugees en masse. He has certainly not responded to that. And for one thing there are so many here, I think 380,000 and they now form such an integral part of the economy that it would be absolutely economically stupid to do so. But in terms of military support, he has taken aim at the so called Czech Ammunition Initiative, which has basically a system set up so that Czech arms dealers are able to procure shells on the global market from third party countries, pay for them with EU and NATO partners money and ship them to Ukraine The President, Petr Pavel, said in Harvard last week, I think it was, that three and a half million shells have been delivered to Ukraine thanks to the Czech initiative. And one analyst said if they hadn't had that, the Ukrainians, they would have lost the whole Donbas this summer. I don't know whether that's true, but certainly it's an integral part. Andrei Babi says it's not transparent and that Czech arms dealers and companies are making huge profits on the deaths of soldiers and civilians. He says we're a pro peace, pro diplomatic party, and we're in favour of the initiative continuing under the NATO umbrella. But the people who created it say, well, it can't work under NATO. That's not how NATO works and it's not how this scheme works. This scheme works because it's not transparent and if you bring it to the surface, then it won't work.
- [18:07]
Georgina Godwin
Rob, briefly, he's still facing fraud charges and conflict of interest allegations. How big a risk are those legal problems to his return to power?
- [18:16]
Rob Cameron
It's very hard to say because this story has dragged on for 10 years. I think this is now the third time that it's in front of a court. As you say, it's not resolved. The court case could resume in about a month. He says that he sat down with the President and talked about it and given his potential explanations of how he'll deal with it if he is made Prime Minister, he says that he has the solutions to get around this, to get around not only the fraud allegations but the conflict of interest problem because he is such a powerful businessman running a company that takes EU subsidies. President Pavel says all his suggested solutions are very much legal, you know, within the letter of the law, but we don't know what they will be. And ultimately there are some who believe that he may in the end step back and allow someone else to become Prime Minister as he runs the country from the shadows.
- [19:13]
Georgina Godwin
Rob, thank you very much indeed. That's Rob Cameron speaking to us in Prague. Still to come on the program, it.
- [19:20]
Doug McConnell
Was very moving and it sounds sort of trite, but, you know, we've worked on this event, had the vision for this event for 13 years, and it's.
- [19:30]
Georgina Godwin
Just under a hundred years since anyone's been able to swim in the foul rivers of Chicago. We'll hear more about the monumental achievement for the fresh water swimmers of Illinois. This is the globalist craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft. Let's continue now with today's newspapers and joining me in the studio is Yossi Meckelburg, Senior consulting fellow with the Middle east and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. Jossi, good morning to you.
- [20:32]
Yossi Meckelburg
Good morning.
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Georgina Godwin
It's lovely to be here with a story that might possibly have a happy ending. We're talking about, of course, the negotiations that are going on in Egypt today and the fact that there will be members of Hamas and Israel and the US all around the table working towards peace. This comes of course, as Israel continues its bombardment on Gaza though.
- [20:55]
Yossi Meckelburg
Yeah. And you know, I think the phrase should be cautious optimism. It looks that, you know, in the last seven days it moves in the right direction and mainly because Trump decides that this war is over. And both Netanyahu but also Hamas tend not to object to what Trump wants. But as you see, and this is the article in the Guardian, you see the bombing continues and even Yesterday more than 40 Palestinians were killed. But I think they negotiate for the first time seriously end of war and take the 20 points plan, it's called the Trump plan seriously. So of course the plan is kind of the immediate parts of it, which is end of war, exchange of hostages from prisoners, start the more humanitarian aid entering into Gaza and then to look into the long term. But I think there is an agreement. Even the most extreme ultranationalist minister in the Israeli government, when they met with Netanyahu two days ago, they didn't threaten to leave the government immediately. They criticized it. They say it's a bad and they will keep saying that, but didn't say we are leaving immediately if you agree.
- [22:16]
Georgina Godwin
But what about Hamas? Because if they agree to everything, that's the end of them.
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Yossi Meckelburg
So here is the thing. You know you have two leadership that has interest in continuing the war because if the war stops, they become less relevant and probably will lose their position within their respective societies.
- [22:32]
Georgina Godwin
And the same goes for Netanyahu, right?
- [22:34]
Yossi Meckelburg
Yeah, the same, both societies. So Hamas, if you decommission its weapons, some of many of them live, many of its leadership have been killed already. Netanyahu, there will be demand for investigation of October 7th and the way that the war has been conducted over the last two years, while the hostages hasn't been until now back home. But the interests of the People, of course the region, the international community is to stop the war and stop it immediately. And this is where the clash for many months both sides sabotaged a deal. But it's especially we know Netanyahu time and again derailed any deal.
- [23:19]
Georgina Godwin
So this, of course is Donald Trump really pushing for peace. And in this week of Nobel Prize giving pushing for that too. As we'll hear later in the program.
- [23:28]
Yossi Meckelburg
He will resolve the eighth, the eighth conflict, the eighth conflict that he resolved.
- [23:33]
Georgina Godwin
But closer to home, of course, he's not so peaceful because we've got a couple of stories here about what's going on in the US this whole idea of the Portland National Guard, the National Guard being sent into Portland despite a court stopping it and Kristi Noem saying ICE will be all over the Super Bowl. Tell me about these two stories because this is him really ratcheting up pressure on his Democratic rivals and of people who he calls illegal immigrants.
- [24:02]
Yossi Meckelburg
So of course, first of all, this is administration again try to generate headlines all the time and all for the wrong reasons. And because it all the time looks at how it consolidates its, its base. And more than doing something positive is to show how the other side of the political map to make them irrelevant. So immigration is one of the biggest issue. So you never think about the super bowl as a place to, you know, to go and round illegal immigrants. But it's a combination with there is underlying racism. The super bowl decided that one of the main show. I never watch it, but I read enough about it. You know, there is this Latin superstar bed bunny, which I don't think it's his real name.
- [24:50]
Georgina Godwin
Really.
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Yossi Meckelburg
Yeah, that's, that was kind of my impression. So he was the end line in the halftime show. And immediately because he come from Puerto Rico and it's great. And he sings in Spanish and he sings in Spanish. So of course this is not why singing in Spanish in the Super Bowl. And then the next things that you hear the custom or we are going to and find who actually has the right to be there. And she says something we look for law abiding American who loves this country. So here is the kind it's about the loyalty. If you are part of it, it's not just you. And we know the super bowl is one of the most hyped commercial event around the world. It's not about loving America. It's not even sometimes loving football. It's about loving the show and all the commercialism around it. But this is now the test that they put administration. You have to Love America. And if you are not from a certain type, if you're not from a certain community, you are suspected of not loving America. And this connects to the other story, you know, also defying the legal system, the Supreme Court, because Trump wanted to send troops to Oregon, to Portland, but he was told by the courts he couldn't do that. So I said, yeah, but I have the one in Los, in California and that's, I'm not prohibited. So I just moved. So it's not, you know, maybe it's from the letter of the law, but the spirit definitely, and this is they will keep generating this anti immigration, anti foreigners and it will get worse and worse. Who is real America, American, who really loves America?
- [26:34]
Georgina Godwin
Absolutely. And I mean with Bad Bunny, I mean, firstly, I wonder if he will actually end up performing at all. If the government will find a way to put so much pressure on the NFL that that doesn't happen. But obviously what they're afraid of is that he is going to foment some kind of dissent on the day and that people there will be very willing to join in.
- [26:52]
Yossi Meckelburg
Yeah, and he was, you know, he's critical, which is completely legitimate in the democracy, to be critical of the government. But you know, it's go back to what we saw with Jimmy Kimmel. The minute that you say something that the administration doesn't like, you know, they're not great on humor and they are very thin skinned when it comes to any criticism of themselves while they are piling criticism and taxing toxic comments on their rivals. And they put pressure on the, on the businesses, the big businesses, the corporation, to do what? To comply what they want. In the case of Jimmy Kimmel, eventually, you know, there was a fight back. I hope the same goes here.
- [27:36]
Georgina Godwin
I mean, having grown up in a dictatorship, I see where this is going. Let's talk about something lovely. And this is tourism being respectful.
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Yossi Meckelburg
In Hawaii, we think that tourists should be always respectful to the culture where they visit. And there is this kind of new notion of generative tourism. So don't, you know, people, okay, we all go to places that we don't know with some preconceived idea what to expect. But sometimes it's, it crosses of a line a try to impose what we think. And also those who organize tourism there to sort of cater to what you think the tourists want and is disrespectful to the local. And in a way, this, you know, there is one guy, Noah Keola, Ryan said we can look very differently. You come to Hawaii, let's experience, really what is there. And also ensuring that the people that work in the tourist industry are local and not doing only the low paid jobs, you know, in hotels, in restaurants, but they are part of the experience when you visit Hawaii. So they get more of the real Hawaii instead of what some people want to push as they think is the culture there. So I think it's a good story about how to change the way when we in a globalized world, when we move from place to place, how we are respectful to the culture there.
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Georgina Godwin
Yossi, thank you very much indeed.
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Yossi Meckelburg
Thank you.
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Georgina Godwin
That's Yossi Meckelburg, senior consulting fellow at the Middle east and North Africa Program at Chatham House. And this is THE globalist. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Talks in Egypt between Hamas, Israel and US Mediators begin later raising hopes of a Gaza ceasefire and a deal to free hostages. The negotiations come as Israeli strikes continue and pressure mounts on Binyamin Netanyahu to end the war. Russia's overnight barrage on Ukraine killed at least five people and damaged homes and energy sites across several regions. It's the latest in a series of strikes aimed at crippling the country's power grid ahead of winter. And a US judge in Oregon has stopped Donald Trump's attempt to send California National Guard troops to Portland after the state accused him of overstepping his powers. The ruling is a blow to Trump's broader push to use the military inside US cities over the protests of local leaders. This is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It is 2:30am in Caracas, 8:30am in Zurich. Now let's have a roundup of Latam News with Chris Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House. Chris, thanks for joining me today. Let's begin with an opinion piece you had in the New York Times in which you argue that the US's current violent clampdown on Venezuela is less about drug busting and more more about settling scores. Can you unpick that for us?
- [30:48]
Chris Sabatini
Sure. So, first of all, under his first term, Donald Trump attempted an effort at regime change when the administration collaborated with the opposition to choose so called democratic interim government after the government of President Maduro had stolen the election in 2018. This is in 2019. And the idea was to create a parallel shadow government that could eventually serve as a way for the military and others to throw their weight behind and remove Nicolas Maduro. Well, three years after it was elected, so to speak, it wasn't really elected. It was sort of chosen out of The national assembly, it was dissolved. It never worked. They tried several times to rally popular support, to call on the military to intervene to remove President Maduro. It didn't work. Now President Trump is back, supposedly by, according to very good accounts, he felt embarrassed by the failure of Guaido to unseat Maduro. And so now he's trying a different tactic, again listening to the same opposition which again had their election stolen last year from them. According to accounts, they won by 70% of the vote against 30% of the vote, but that was denied them by President Madov. So now Trump has mobilized more than 6,000 U.S. troops, at least eight boats, a nuclear submarine, about 10 F35 planes. Right now, all he's doing is really taking out what he claims are kind of in a weird designation, narco terrorist boats, claiming he's doing this to stop cocaine from flowing into the United States. And fentanyl. But actually, fentanyl doesn't come from Venezuela. It comes from Mexico. And about. Only about 5% of the cocaine that enters the US comes from Venezuela. And it only doesn't. It comes through overflights not even produced there. So what he's really trying to do is do the same thing he failed to do in 2019, which is rattle the military, have them defect from Maduro and try to promote a regime change in Venezuela. And that's clear. We'll see if it works. It's a pretty heavy allocation of naval assets. About 10% of U.S. naval assets are dedicated right now to floating off the coast of Venezuela. They may lob a few missiles, maybe some drone strikes inside Venezuela to try to rattle the military, but it's the same strategy, just with this time, gunboat diplomacy.
- [33:02]
Georgina Godwin
Is this even legal?
- [33:04]
Chris Sabatini
Probably not, actually. Well, right now it doesn't look like it's legal to take out these boats as he's been doing. He's taken out, I think, last count, about 19, I think, individuals just in speedboats. There's no way those speedboats could have, if you look at the pictures, and really cruelly and sadly, they're showing these pictures of these boats being blown up by giant missiles just erupting in flames with people on them. It's illegal because it's being done in international waters. It's illegal because they're claiming this is an act of war. But there's no precedent for having drug dealers argue that they're combatants. They're just carrying. Even if they are, we don't know. That's the other problem is this whole strategy is shoot first Ask questions later. There's no due process. So, no, the UN has declared it's an act. It is a violation of international norms. And the next step, which they're now claiming the White House is claiming it will pursue, is bombing inside Venezuela drug sites, maybe even seizing ports and bombing airports. That's certainly not legal. That's also a violation in that case of national sovereignty. So, no, this opens up a whole series of questions about the strategy. And also this labeling of narco terrorists as being legitimate targets of warfare is really at best, open debate.
- [34:17]
Georgina Godwin
Now, you've also been looking into Haiti, where the UN Security Council's approved a new gang suppression mission. That's a pretty rare breakthrough. What does it mean on the ground?
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Chris Sabatini
Well, right now it will take about six to 12 months to get the entire mission up. Just a little bit of history, if I can be a little pedantic here. In 2023, the UN could not approve a peacekeeping mission. So they cobbled together this multinational support, security support mission. It was supposed to have 2,500 multinational troops on the ground. Only 800 Kenyans were able to be mobilized. And gang takeover has continued in Haiti. More than almost 6,000 people were killed last year by murder by the gangs. Gangs control about 90% of the capital city, 1.5 million people. In Haiti, this is out of a population, about 11 million are displaced. So that didn't work. So what happened last week on Tuesday was the UN Security Council tried again. This is a little bit more focused on security than last. It still doesn't have, doesn't draw down from UN dues to support the mission. It still is going to depend on voluntary contributions of the Canadians have already stepped up. But this is more of a sort of pointed effort. And what's interesting in this case is under past efforts to establish some sort of peacekeeping UN mission, the Chinese and the Russians vetoed it. In this case, they abstained. And largely the reason is that this time you had countries like Brazil and Mexico and Panama, African countries step forward and say, look, China, Russia, you claim your support, the global South. This is something we really need you to support. So they held their noses and abstained in this case. So we'll see what happens. It calls for a force, about 5,000 again, multinational troops, calls for broad development programs. The big thing question right now is who's going to pony up the money and the troops to fulfill that mission?
- [36:14]
Georgina Godwin
And Chris, finally, let's have a quick look at Mexico, where President Claudius Sheinbaum has celebrated a year in in office. And she delivered the final speech of her accountability tour yesterday. So what did she say and was the tour a success?
- [36:29]
Chris Sabatini
The tour, she's had some surprising successes, I'll be frank. She's battling a very intemperate, capricious hegemon to the north who's been changing the terms of the debate and the trade. So I think in part what she's saying is she's restored economic growth, poverty has decreased. She's in some cases actually restored some of the basically accountability mechanisms that her predecessor and her mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador tore down. But she's also made some questionable choices. One is electing federal judges. So just earlier this year, Mexico had elections to elect all federal judges plus a third of the Supreme Court and as expected, and the ruling party, the Morena Party, won the majority of those positions. So now you're looking at a judiciary that is for the again, it's unique in the world. There's no federal judiciary that's completely elected by the people. But now you have one that's also very partisan, very much in the mold of this government. And that's going to be a big question for accountability that she isn't addressing. She's claiming this is a victory of people power over the judiciary. But it is, you know, you don't have to be a political scientist, God forbid, to realize that, you know, this is very risky and it really risks the independence of the Supreme Court and the professionalism of the entire federal judiciary.
- [37:53]
Georgina Godwin
Chris, thank you very much indeed. That's Chris Sabatini of Chatham House. This is Monocle Radio.
- [38:06]
Yossi Meckelburg
Foreign.
- [38:12]
Georgina Godwin
And every day new winners of the world's most prestigious awards will be announced. The prize which attracts most attention is the one awarded for Peace. This year, 338 individuals and 94 organizations have been nominated. Amongst those is Donald Trump. The US President makes no secret of the fact that he believes he deserves this award more than anyone else. So the pressure is now mounting on the Norwegian Nobel Committee committee to make a decision which will be published on Friday. This week, Monocle's Bruno Kaufmann reports from Oslo.
- [38:45]
Bruno Kaufmann
This announcement by the chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, we are all waiting for.
- [38:51]
Georgina Godwin
Good morning, everyone.
- [38:53]
Yossi Meckelburg
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the Peace Prize.
- [39:00]
Bruno Kaufmann
Not so fast. The Committee of Five, which is chaired by Jurgen Watne Friute, still has to make up its minds who or what has contributed most to peace in the world this last year. The decision making process takes place entirely behind closed doors. This leaves the public stage to those who explicitly support one or the other candidate, or even themselves.
- [39:29]
Yossi Meckelburg
He's forging peace as we speak, in one country, in one region after the other. So I want to present to you, Mr. President, the letter I sent to.
- [39:38]
Rob Cameron
The Nobel Prize Committee.
- [39:41]
Chris Sabatini
It's nominating you for the Peace Prize.
- [39:42]
Yossi Meckelburg
Which is well deserved and you should get it.
- [39:45]
Georgina Godwin
Thank you very much.
- [39:46]
Chris Sabatini
This I didn't know well.
- [39:50]
Bruno Kaufmann
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not been the only one to officially nominate Donald Trump. Ilyam Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, is also convinced that the American president is the nominee to go for this year.
- [40:07]
Rob Cameron
Who, if not President Trump, deserves the Nobel Peace Prize?
- [40:11]
Tomohiko Taniguchi
President Trump, in six months, did miracle.
- [40:14]
Bruno Kaufmann
And Donald Trump was not shy to use his speech at the United Nations General assembly recently to make the case for himself.
- [40:24]
Chris Sabatini
In a period of just seven months, I have ended seven unending wars.
- [40:30]
Rob Cameron
They said they were unending.
- [40:32]
Doug McConnell
No president or prime minister, and for that matter, no other country, has ever.
- [40:36]
Chris Sabatini
Done anything close to that. And I did it in just seven months.
- [40:41]
Bruno Kaufmann
But while the worldwide debate about accuracy of such praise has continued to grow in recent days, the committee responsible for the Peace Prize in Oslo demonstratively kept its calm. As I discovered during a visit to the Nobel Institute in Oslo, if a.
- [41:01]
Chris Sabatini
Candidate is nominated, then this candidate is evaluated according to our own criteria. And it makes no difference if there are more than one nomination or if there is a public debate or campaign to support such a nomination.
- [41:17]
Bruno Kaufmann
This is Christian Berg Harbwiken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute and coordinator of the Nobel Committee that selects the Peace Prize winner. In a calm and professional manner, Harbwicken describes his institution's work on the process that ultimately leads to the much anticipated announcement of the prize winner this week. The yearly deadline to nominate an individual or organization for the Nobel peace Prize is February 1st. After that, the committee decides on a long list of candidates to be evaluated by external experts hired by Harpwicken. In the final weeks leading up to the decision, a shortlist is assessed. Nobody outside the committee of five people selected by the Norwegian Parliament and its secretary Hartwicken, has any knowledge about these considerations, and all written documents of the process are sealed for half a century. However, with indirect reference to Trump's own wishes, the director of the Nobel Institute rejects those with the loudest ambitions.
- [42:31]
Yossi Meckelburg
The history of the Nobel Peace Prize.
- [42:33]
Chris Sabatini
Offers a lot of reference that it is impossible to pave the way for.
- [42:37]
Yossi Meckelburg
Oneself to receive the Peace Prize.
- [42:40]
Chris Sabatini
Instead, Nobel Prize winners have done what they do and have been surprised by the decision of the committee.
- [42:48]
Bruno Kaufmann
And there is something more in my takeaways from the conversation in the venerable rooms of the Norwegian Nobel institute at Henrik Ipsengate 5 here in Oslo, which indicates that the US President may not be the first choice to get the Nobel Peace Prize this year.
- [43:08]
Yossi Meckelburg
I want during my tenure as director.
- [43:10]
Chris Sabatini
And Secretary to ensure that the Nobel Prize Peace Prize winners and their important.
- [43:15]
Yossi Meckelburg
Actions are more well known. We will actively contribute to this in the future by visiting the home countries.
- [43:22]
Chris Sabatini
Of the winners and other parts of the world to spread the word.
- [43:28]
Bruno Kaufmann
If there is anybody who does not need more attention and support in disseminating his ideas and actions, it is most likely the sitting President of the United States of America. Instead, there are a number of other candidates considered to have good chances for the Nobel Peace Prize this year. As the director of the Norwegian Peace Research Institute, Brio Nina Greger points out.
- [43:54]
Sally Gethen
I have five candidates on the list which we think would be worthy winners.
- [43:59]
Georgina Godwin
One of them is the Committee to.
- [44:00]
Yossi Meckelburg
Protect Journalists, which is a US based.
- [44:04]
Sally Gethen
Committee or group of people who are are collecting evidence regarding attacks on and.
- [44:10]
Georgina Godwin
Killings of journalists who are reporting from crises and war areas.
- [44:14]
Bruno Kaufmann
Protecting free media is probably not the strongest discipline of the incumbent US President. Neither is the promotion of international law or environmental protection, which are considered by experts like Nina Greger to play an important role this year in consideration for a Nobel Prize winner. 2025 the prize will be announced this coming Friday morning at 11:00am Central European Time here at the Nobel Institute in Oslo and then will be awarded during a ceremony at Oslo city hall on December 10, the anniversary of the death of the prize founder Alfred Nobel. For Monaco in Oslo, I'm Bruno Kaufmann.
- [45:05]
Georgina Godwin
Thank you very much to Bruno. This is the globalist iq, EQ and AI, three components key to the craft of innovation at ubs. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence. All to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft. 7:45 here in London. Now let's take you above the clouds for a roundup from the turbulent world of aviation with industry analyst Sally Gethen. Sally, good morning to you. Thanks for joining me. It's about to become a whole lot more difficult for non EU travellers to access Europe. Tell us about the introduction of ees.
- [46:10]
Sally Gethen
Yes, so this has been talked about a long time. Obviously a lot of changes underway to boost security within Europe at the borders. So this new systems EES is the entry exit system and it applies to all travelers going to EU Schengen countries from next Sunday 12th October. And the difference is that there will be more biometrics used when you actually arrive at your destination airport in Europe, if you're coming from the UK for example. And so you will have your fingerprints taken and your photograph taken, so that will be captured biometrically and stored by EU countries. But it's being phased in, so you may not notice a dramatic change. Initially it will be phased in over six months and be complete by April. And then that in turn paves the way for etia, another system that will cost be a cost per passenger coming in this time next year.
- [47:26]
Georgina Godwin
Well, let's go to Iceland now because some bad news for Play Airlines, they've closed, they've cancelled all flights, that's left passengers stranded, people without jobs and so on. Tell us more about this.
- [47:39]
Sally Gethen
Yeah, so this airline called Play was really what we would call an ultra long haul, low cost carrier. A bit of a mouthful there, but it was kind of stretching the business model from being short haul like say right short to medium haul like Ryanair for example, to being long haul. But they launched not so long ago in 2019 and nothing they did actually worked very well. They just kept losing money. I mean there were, there was a good passenger take up for it, but really in the end they kept shifting their business model, changing from hub traffic to point to point and nothing really was working. And yeah, then it suddenly decides to close. I mean the strange thing is that Lyson's got a bit of a history, a recent history with ventures of this kind launching and failing because it grew out of wow Air which also in turn closed. In fact, it was two executives from WowAir that started play Airlines. The irony is that they've actually established a market which will be taken up by Icelandair, their main rival obviously. And so, but I think this raises questions about whether that was a business model that would really ever work in and out of the Iceland region.
- [49:12]
Georgina Godwin
I mean surely that there just isn't enough business to sustain these airlines as we've seen.
- [49:18]
Sally Gethen
Yeah, I think, you know, having covered this industry for most of my life, frankly, it is amazing how enthusiastic and exuberant it is and it attracts lots of startups and that's what we want as an industry. That's great. It's, it, it, you know, it challenges the, the lethargic practices of some other airlines perhaps, but, but in the end, you know, it's hard, it's hard business metrics, it's profitability and, and airline. The aviation industry is very unforgiving and it's very ruthless. So, yeah, it's, you know, once you're on the downward slide, it is very, very difficult sometimes for smaller airlines particular to pick up, you know, to gather speed again.
- [50:05]
Georgina Godwin
Now Boeing says it's going to invest $85 million in Canadian aerospace projects. Tell us more about this.
- [50:14]
Sally Gethen
Yeah, they are going into a major $85 million I should add. So they're going into Quebec in Canada off the back of a big defence project which the P8A Poseidon, which Boeing is involved with, and they're going into this venture. But the Canadian government is putting money into this as well. And Airbus is also out there and the idea is to foster a lot of growth, a lot of cross collaboration in the industry out there and also to develop sustainable technologies. So Boeing is not simply ploughing, you know, a lot of money down a rabbit hole here. It's actually going to fuel growth. It will also strengthen its ties in that part of the world. So it should be a win win for both sides.
- [51:15]
Georgina Godwin
Sally, thank you very much indeed. That's aviation analyst Sally Gethin and you're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. And finally to the Windy City, where Chicago has hosted its first river swim. For nearly 100 years, decades of work has gone into the cleaning of one of the most polluted waterways in the world. Remember the images of Dave Matthews tour bus emptying its 800 pound septic tank onto people taking a cruise below? Well, the city's come a long way since then. Then Monocle's Tom Webb caught up with Doug McConnell, CEO of the Chicago River Swim, about witnessing his dream come true.
- [52:01]
Doug McConnell
You know, I have to say it was very moving and it sounds sort of trite, but, you know, we've worked on this event, had the vision for this event for 13 years and to finally get to the point where people were jumping in and you know, obviously very visible in the, in this river and so forth and then to hear the horn go off, it was. I'm not somebody who gets tears in their eyes, but I got tears in my eyes.
- [52:31]
Rob Cameron
Well, I'm not at all surprised. 13 years, you're also a Chicagoan yourself. What goes into cleaning up such a major city river?
- [52:41]
Doug McConnell
You know, it's quite a story. And the Chicago river is really kind of the reason that Chicago is here in the first place. It's at the very southern end of Lake Michigan, which is the southernmost tip of the Great Lakes. So it has its sort of geographic Curiosity and so forth. When Chicago was first founded and formed was really in the mid to late 1800s, and the city grew to more than a million people by 1890. And unfortunately, as the city had grown, the Chicago river was really used as an open sewer. So the long and short of it was then that in the 1970s there was all of this legislation that came along, both at a federal and a state level, to form the Environmental Protection Agency, the Clean Water act, and enforcement of those things. And there's a group that kind of runs the water in a district. It's not really the state, but it's a district called the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District. And they took a very progressive step to build a tunnel that rerouted rainwater. Instead of going into the river, it went into this tunnel so they could then sterilize it at pace and so forth. So the long and short of it is that as you move forward, the river is perfectly clean. And we were testing water every day right up until race day to, to confirm that.
- [54:14]
Rob Cameron
So you mentioned in 1908, there were swimmers, there are swimmers now. It's not a new thing. What's the joy of river swimming? What's so special about jumping in?
- [54:25]
Doug McConnell
I'm an open water swimmer. I used to be a. I mean, I was. I grew up as a competitive swimmer and now I swim open water. And it's really a wonderful experience not to be in the pool and have walls around you and that sort of thing. It's a very freeing feeling to be able to swim through the heart of a city, though with every breath you can see the beautiful buildings. They have these magnificent bridges that go across the river. Just from a sightseeing standpoint, it was pretty magical for those swimmers.
- [54:57]
Rob Cameron
And there was also a purpose to this swim as well.
- [55:01]
Doug McConnell
Yes, indeed. Several years ago, I co founded a nonprofit, a charity called A Long Swim. And we had borrowed the acronym from als, the disease that sometimes is called motor neuron disease and so forth. That happens to have hit my family very hard. And we just wanted to do something. ALS is a disease for which there are no survivors. And after it was, we lost my father to als. And then as it turns out, one of my sisters was diagnosed. And it was really after she was diagnosed that we really wanted to do something. And raising money for research was the answer. Northwestern University is right here in Chicago, and it turns out that it's one of the top ALS research centers in the world. So that was an easy fit between the two of those. So we've been raising money ever since we just passed $3 million of gross money that we've raised, and this is with swims that I've done well in your area. I swam the English Channel and a loop around Manhattan island in New York and a bunch of other swims in Hawaii and all these other places. So we've had wonderful, wonderful luck with it. And as I say, we've been able to raise a lot of money.
- [56:22]
Rob Cameron
Fantastic. Well, wanted to end with your words to someone who is considering open water swimming, urban swimming, what would you say?
- [56:31]
Doug McConnell
It's really magical, Tom. It sounds sort of silly to say such a thing, but to be able to get out there and not be restricted or restrained by walls of a pool or something like that, and to sort of know that you're going to confront all of the things that the pool takes away. The waters can be cold, the water can be wavy and there's wind and if you get out in the ocean, there's wildlife and, and, you know, and so forth. So there's all these new challenges that come along with open water swimming that really just add new dimensions to it. It's a wonderful, wonderful activity and of course, it's so healthy for you.
- [57:10]
Georgina Godwin
That was Doug McConnell, CEO of the Chicago River Swim, in conversation with Monocle's Tom Webb. That's all for today's program. Thanks to our producers, Chris Chermak, Tom Webb and Ryuma Takahashi, our researcher Daniela B? Ror Smith and our studio manager, Mariella Bevan. After the headlines, there's more music on the way and the briefing is live at midday in London. The Globalist will return at the same time tomorrow. And of course, there's lots of great programming and music from around the world on our website 24. 7 + access to our archives of all our previous programmes. To have a little exploration, I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening. With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.