The Globalist – "Why is Washington so interested in Honduras's presidential election?"

Monocle Radio | Aired 28 November 2025
Host: Georgina Godwin
Key Guests: Maria Fernando Bosmoski (Atlantic Council), Andrew Thompson (Political risk analyst)

Overview

This episode dives into the crucial Honduran presidential election, examining why the U.S.—and specifically President Donald Trump—is taking an unusually direct interest. The discussion centers on how Washington’s overt support for one candidate, Nasri Asfura, is shaping the dynamics of a highly polarized and consequential vote. Guests explore regional implications, the risk of a contested result, and what this election means for Latin America’s political direction under Trump’s second term.

Main Segment: Honduras Presidential Election and U.S. Involvement

The Tight, High-Stakes Race

[03:10–06:05]

• Polarization:
  Andrew Thompson explains that Honduran politics have long alternated between left and right, making for a “genuinely tight and polarized” race.

• Trump’s Open Endorsement:
  Trump’s overt support for conservative candidate Nasri Asfura breaks U.S. tradition of subtler involvement and adds a “fresh layer of potential tension.”

  “When you add in the Trump dimension... you get another level of potential tension put onto what could be some very controversial elections.” — Andrew Thompson [04:17]

Trump’s Calculated Move

[04:53–06:05]

• Not Unprecedented but Blunt:
  Maria Fernando Bosmoski notes U.S. meddling isn’t new, but Trump’s direct labeling of rivals as “communists” is a departure in style.

• Framing the Choice:
  Trump paints the vote as a choice between “communism or capitalism,” referencing Castro’s ties to Cuba and Venezuela, both pariahs in Washington’s eyes.

  “This is the first time that it's done so bluntly...framing that election...as one where citizens would be choosing between potentially communism or capitalism.” — Maria Fernando Bosmoski [05:05]

Risks of a Contested Outcome

[06:05–07:12]

• Likelihood of Disputed Results:
  Thompson anticipates a “50/50 chance” of more than one candidate claiming victory, referencing violent protests after the 2017 elections.

  “The possibility of violent demonstrations is quite high.” — Andrew Thompson [06:15]

Honduras’s Role in Trump’s Regional Strategy

[07:12–09:13]

• Beyond Honduras:
  Bosmoski says Honduras is key to U.S. concerns: drug trafficking, the U.S.-China rivalry, and fragile democracy.

• Implications for China & Taiwan:
  Whoever wins may tilt Honduras closer to Washington or Beijing.

  “It’s really where three main priorities of this administration are playing out: the US-China rivalry, the drug war, but also democracy.” — Maria Fernando Bosmoski [07:12]

• If Incumbent Wins:
  Thompson predicts alignment with China and regional leftist regimes.

• If Asfura Wins:
  A turn “closer into the U.S. sphere of influence,” likely with market-friendly reforms and stronger security ties.

  “A government under Nasri Asfura would move closer to Washington in economic terms as well.” — Andrew Thompson [08:16]

Future Partnerships and Regional Shifts

[09:13–10:20]

• Closer U.S.–Honduras Ties?:
  Bosmoski envisions a partnership similar to U.S. support for leaders in El Salvador and Argentina—cooperation on security, migration, and potentially switching recognition back to Taipei.

  “Honduras could become a very close ally of the United States.” — Maria Fernando Bosmoski [09:24]

• Risks of Unrest:
  Thompson notes that problems with Honduras's vote counting system (TREP) could be early indications of conflict over the result.

  “The first problem is going to be...the system they're using to transmit polling station results...if that flares up again, that will be a warning sign.” — Andrew Thompson [10:20]

Is Honduras Part of a New Trump Doctrine?

[11:12–12:08]

• Assertive Regional Strategy:
  Bosmoski says attention to Honduras reflects a broader U.S. push in Latin America, underscored by Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first trip abroad being to Central America.

  “Most definitely, this is a region that the president himself cares about a lot, but also his Secretary of State...we're going to continue seeing this level of attention.” — Maria Fernando Bosmoski [11:23]

Notable Quotes

• “This is the first time that it's done so bluntly…framing that election...as one where citizens would be choosing between potentially communism or capitalism.”
  — Maria Fernando Bosmoski [05:05]

• “The possibility of violent demonstrations is quite high.”
  — Andrew Thompson [06:15]

• “Honduras could become a very close ally of the United States.”
  — Maria Fernando Bosmoski [09:24]

• “We’re going to continue seeing this level of attention, this level of focus, whether it's welcome or not.”
  — Maria Fernando Bosmoski [11:23]

Key Timestamps for Main Segments

• 03:10–04:53: U.S. and OAS concerns about potential fraud and Washington’s open backing of Asfura
• 05:05–06:05: Trump’s election messaging and the “communism vs. capitalism” narrative
• 06:15–07:05: Likelihood and history of disputed results in Honduras
• 07:12–09:13: Honduras in U.S.-China rivalry and importance in regional security/democracy
• 09:13–10:20: Prospective U.S.-Honduras alignment if Asfura wins; electoral risks
• 11:12–12:08: Broader U.S. strategy in Central America and potential regional ramifications

Related Global Highlights

• [12:08–13:13] France’s Military Service Debate:
  Macron’s voluntary national service plan provokes a nuanced public reaction, mainly split by age and politics.
• [14:30–18:23] Macron’s Message to Russia:
  Largely symbolic, aimed at preparing public for potential future threats.
• [21:14–28:43] Asia Front Pages Review:
  Tokyo bureau chief Fiona Wilson covers a deadly Hong Kong apartment fire, Trump’s involvement in Japan–China tensions, cyberattacks on Asahi Beer, and Japan’s battle to keep eels off the endangered list.
• [31:32–37:09] Philippines “Floodgate” Scandal:
  Massive anti-corruption protests brews amid revelations of billions wasted on fake or unfinished flood control projects.

Memorable Moments

• Direct U.S. Endorsement:
  The show underscores how rare it is for a sitting U.S. president to so boldly back a foreign candidate, with Trump’s rhetoric intensifying regional divides.
• Potential for Civil Unrest:
  The legacy of Honduras’s 2017 contested election casts a long shadow over this vote.
• Global Implications:
  Honduras is not just a local issue—the outcome could decisively shape alliances in the era of renewed U.S.-China rivalry and shifting Latin American politics.

Conclusion

This episode frames Honduras’s elections not as an isolated crisis, but as a bellwether for the evolving U.S. strategy under Trump—marked by direct intervention, heightened rhetoric, and a hard geopolitical edge. The guests expect contested results and warn of deepening regional polarization. The U.S. administration’s priorities—security, China rivalry, and “democracy”—are all playing out in Honduras, with potential consequences far beyond its borders.