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- [00:04]
UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 18 November 2025 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is the Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Coming up, we're going to work with.
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Jacob Parakeilis
You and we're going to take care.
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Redwan Ahmed
Of the one lingo.
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John Everard
It's really a lingering cloud. I would call it a lingering cloud that's over your head. We're going to see if we can get that straightened out.
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Emma Nelson
But can north and South Korea resolve their differences themselves? We'll hear about an offer from Seoul to Pyongyang to dial down the tensions simply by talking. Also ahead in the next 60 minutes, after France promises to supply Ukraine with fighter jets, we'll hear from the author of a report who claims that Ukraine needs a much better thought out strategy for ending the war and beyond.
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Natasha Shaffee
And I have been very intentional with my time, especially with the transition of making sure that hoteliers know who I am. Not for the sake of me, Natasha, but just for the reassurance of what I represent as CEO.
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Emma Nelson
Now, Natasha Shaffee, the new boss at the helm of Mr. And Mrs. Smith. There we'll hear about the succession of a brand which has endured, plus the papers too, and a trip to the Dubai air show. That's all coming up on the Globalist live from London. Foreign. Look at what else we're following in today's news. A UN Resolution has been passed endorsing Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan. Key elements of a second face have also been agreed upon. Canada's parliament has narrowly voted in favor of Prime Minister Mark Carney's first budget, saving him from having to call fresh elections. And Saudi's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits a US President Donald Trump at the White House today. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on this stories. But first, it has been more than seven decades since north and South Korea signed an armistice agreement. But during that time, military tensions have not diminished. After all, the ceasefire was never followed up with a peace treaty. But in recent months, the persistent noisy rhetoric and Rocket testing have been added to by what South Korea claims to have been incursions by North Korean troops. So now Seoul has proposed talks and I'm joined in the studio by John Everard, former British diplomat, Ambassador to North Korea career. Good morning, John. Good to have you back with us.
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John Everard
Good morning, Emma.
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Emma Nelson
What kind of incursions are we talking about?
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John Everard
Numerous small incursions. The fundamental problem is that the military demarcation line, that's effectively the ceasefire line agreed at the armistice back in 1953, was marked out at the time with a fairly thorough series of, I suppose you call them border posts. But that was a long time ago and nobody has repaired these border posts in the meantime. They've rotted, they've been moved, they've fallen over, they've been eaten by goats. The kind of things that happens to objects left in no man's land. And of course, this means that the two sides now disagree on where exactly that line runs. The North Koreans, having declared South Korea to be a separate and hostile state a couple of years ago, have been busy fortifying their side of the border and in so doing keep crossing into territory that the south regards as its territory. The south responds by firing warning shots, drive the North Koreans back across their border, and the North Koreans angry protest that they were on their own territory all the time. Hence the south suggestion that they sit down and talk about it. Chance of that happening. Flying pigs indeed.
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Emma Nelson
Well, that was my next question, so you might, you might have to elaborate a little on that.
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John Everard
The north has made very clear in its own vituperative way that it is not going to sit down with South Korea that regards the South Koreans as just a bunch of American toadies and it is not going to discuss anything with them. So the suggestion of talks by the south is a. Is a piety. The south knows very well this isn't going to happen. It's part, incidentally of a wider Southern scheme. The the new President, Lee Ji Myung, came to office with a profound commitment to re engaging with North Korea and has been frustrated at every turn. The north has simply said no. This is in that sense another Southern attempt to get the Northerners to sit across a table.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. Because if I'm right, President Lee's offer to the North Koreans was actually to have discussions without conditions that this was about as broad and as open as it could get.
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John Everard
That's correct. And the north has pooh poohed even that. The other thing that the south has tried to do is they decided that if the north is not going to talk to them. Maybe they can push Donald Trump into another summit with Kim Jong Un, which you're not sure what a summit with President Trump might actually produce, but at least it opens the door and it gives the south at least somebody to whom they can talk, who in their turn is talking to the North.
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Emma Nelson
It's interesting because at the beginning of the program we played a clip of Donald Trump saying that we're going to work with both Koreas to, to take care of a lingering cloud. I mean he dismissed it as just something quite residual. You've rolled. If you weren't in the room with me now, John's just rolled his eyes. That idea of a lingering cloud is, doesn't necessarily have much, doesn't consider it to have much heft.
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John Everard
That's right, lingering cloud. I don't think I'm the only North Korea watcher to roll their eyes at that phrase. This is much more the lingering cloud. This is a bitter and continuing conflict. The idea that Donald Trump can wade in and solve it is frankly risible, particularly as the north has made clear, they meet clear when he was in South Korea for the APEC summit last month that they are not going to talk to Donald Trump. They're even less willing to talk to him now that he's agreed to let the south have nuclear powered submarines.
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Emma Nelson
Explain a little bit more about the risk associated with this, these incursions. The fact remains that if nobody can decide on who should be allowed where, what is the possibility of something silly happening in the meantime, when there is an outbreak, a burst of violence, and before you know it, we're in a situation which is much, much more serious.
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John Everard
It's impossible to quantify this risk, but it's not zero. The problem is that the north habitually faced with any kind of confrontation, just doubles down, brings in more troops, shoots more. It's very rare for the north to actually back off. This of course would force the South's hand, which means that all it takes is for an over excited local commander, probably a subaltern, to order his troo troops just to dig in and hold the ground and you have a situation which would escalate quite rapidly out of control. It could probably be brought under control before you reach full scale major conflict, but it would be nasty and dangerous.
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Emma Nelson
So there is a sense there, from what you just said, is that they would not be able to hold up, cool things down themselves were this to happen.
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John Everard
They would have to. I can't see anybody else doing it, but how they would do that isn't at all clear. As I say, the north is not.
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Emma Nelson
Talking, just listening to what you're saying. In terms of the way that the north is behaving in the direction of the narrative in all this, is there a sense that the north actually is controlling an awful lot of what is happening here, that it seems to hold all the cards?
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John Everard
Not really. I mean, the north has got deep, deep problems and deep weaknesses that it is desperately trying to conceal. Where it feels it has the upper hand, it plays its cards with great aggression. And over the slightly uncertain military demarcation line, it clearly think so. And it's most unlikely that this spate of incursions is accidental. Subalterns on the front line are being ordered to cross into what the north knows very well, the south of guards as its territory.
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Emma Nelson
And explain now, I think in the last few hours that a new agreement has been announced between South Korea and the United States to build a nuclear powered submarine. The north has reacted, has denounced it, as you would imagine. But that is clearly a sense that the south is absolutely publicly and pressing on with its alliance with the United States.
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John Everard
Yes, this is very significant, not just the last few hours. I mean, this has been building for a bit. It was essentially nailed down when President Trump was in South Korea for the APEC summit. But the deal is that the United States permits South Korea to build nuclear powered submarines. Not nuclear armed, but nuclear powered, using US technology. Big debate over where they're going to be built. President Trump has said they'll be built in Philadelphia. Hanwha, the South Korean company that owns the shipbuilder facility there, has said that the facilities there just are not big enough. They can't build them there. They had to be built in South Korea. Nor is it clear how many submarines we are talking, but it's a big step forward. I mean, there aren't many countries that operate nuclear power submarines. South Korea is joining a big club. The other point here is that in exchange for releasing this technology, it's clear that the United States has got South Korea to promise to engage more widely in the US Regional security agenda. Taiwan, China, and interestingly too explicitly mentioned the threat from Russia. Now, up until until now, the United States has kind of played this threat down. President Putin's famous relationship with President Trump and has concentrated on China. That rhetoric is now shifting and the United States is talking about a joint threat from China and Russia, which of course has implications for what happens over Ukraine apart from anything else. Big question is, why would the south want nuclear powered Submarines. If you are facing an adversary that is nuclear armed with land based missiles and with a huge land army, what is the point of building up your naval capability that can only be in pursuit of the U.S. regional agenda, not the South Korean one.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed, because this is something that Washington has blocked for quite a long time, isn't it?
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John Everard
Yes it is. Washington for a long time has been looking to build what it calls a security triangle between South Korea, Japan and the Philippines. Though it's not clear anyone's told the Philippines this yet. But effectively they draw dotted lines on maps which is the US controlled area and are looking for allies to patrol this and to keep it secure for them.
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Emma Nelson
Because the number of countries which have nuclear powered submarines is really small, isn't it? There's the us, Russia, China, Britain, France, India, superpowers.
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John Everard
That's right, yes. South Korea is joining a very elite club.
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Emma Nelson
John Everard, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. That's John Everard, the former UK Ambassador to North Korea. You're listening to the Globalist. Now a special tribunal in Bangladesh has sentenced the former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who's currently in exile, to death. The ruling concerns the government's crackdown on student led protests in 202024 in which the UN estimates around 1400 people were killed. Hasina remains free at the moment in India while Bangladesh has requested her extradition. Many observers say that this is unlikely to happen because she's not going to return home to face her punishment. Well, to talk about this I'm joined by Redwan Ahmed who's a journalist based in Dakar. Good afternoon Red one.
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Redwan Ahmed
Good afternoon Emma. Thank you for having me.
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Emma Nelson
So just recap what happened in 2024 please.
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Redwan Ahmed
So as you know, you know in 2024 there is a violent uprising that basically overthrow the Sheikha Sir's government. And it all stemmed from a government decision to avert a preferential quota system, the government job scheme. So in in Bangladesh civil services jobs which are like very sought after because you know of unemployment and everything. So this government jobs are really lucrative to the fresh graduates. And the then system was used to give a very preferential treatment to the dissidents of the freedom fighters, the freedom fighters who took part in the Bangladesh Liberation war against Pakistan in 1971. And so the students especially from the Dhaka University they started protesting the decision that they say that was unfair and what they wanted was if more fairer job quota system that given fair treatment and fair chances to everyone. So it stemmed from them and then you Know, the government's mishandling of it. And, you know, the way the government had responded to those protests and the heavy crackdown, the police brutality. And, you know, it's not only the police crackdown, but it also the how the former ruling party supporters, especially the Army League activists, the way they cracked down on the protesting students that eventually led this student protest which became a really popular uprising. And then, you know, in early August, in 2024, the 5th or on the morning of the 5th of August, had to flee because there was massive popular uprising. And, you know, people were marching towards the residents. And that's when the security forces, especially the security forces guarding Sheikha Sina told her like, you know, it's time. They cannot protect her unless she leaves the compound. So then she took a flight to India from her residence, which is how the Arabella government fell. And, you know.
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Emma Nelson
Yeah, and this is where Sheikh Athena is now. She's. She's in India and she has now been sentenced to death in absentia. What's been the reaction in Bangladesh?
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Redwan Ahmed
Yes, we done now we know for sure that, you know, because both of the governments have confirmed that she is in India. And you know, the, the trial happened in the. In Bangladesh crimes tribunal. It is a domestic court, but, you know, it is a. It's a special trial that the government has constituted. Actually this is. Was. The court was set up by sheikh herself in 2020 10, you know, to try the war crime tribunals that her political opponent Jamaat leaders in back in like more than a decade ago. So yes, she has been tried in absentia because the government has sent formal extradition request to India because this due to country has treaties, but India has not publicly responded to it. But, you know, in private conversations it is pretty clear that India is not giving her back. So the. The reaction on the streets is, you know, there are even in the courtroom was very jubilant. We saw maybe, I think it was also broadcasted live that people. It was a packed courtroom with lawyers, journalists and also family from slain protesters. Injured protester. Everyone was in the courtroom and as soon as the court handed down the verdict, people were like chanting. They erupted in a claps and you know, so the similar mood echoed throughout the country as well that, you know, most of the people and like many people, especially the families of slain protesters, you know, and they really welcome the decision and they say that this is the only punishment that they could think of. And Bangladesh is also the country where we still have the death by hanging for capital punishment, which is Also like debated and there were critics around it, but people think, you know, I spoke to families of protesters. They think like some of them said Sheikh has probably been hanged like you know, thousand times for the crimes that she committed.
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Emma Nelson
Well, just looking, looking the at how this plays out in the future. What if India does not hand her back?
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Redwan Ahmed
So that is where it comes down to now because it's pretty imminent, pretty evident that India would not give her back. And I think people know it as well. So in, you know, they say the primary priority of this interim government should be to, to try and bring her back. And you know, that diplomatically that is a huge challenging task even for India as well if she, if, if India keeps housing them now, especially because she's now a convicted felon in Bangladeshi court. And the, the prosecutors say they will ask the Interpol to issue a red notice based on the conviction. So, you know, that is something to see for the future that what happens from, from now on because it's pretty unclear that how it's going to unfold, especially regarding her return and indeed and.
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Emma Nelson
Diplomatically, where does this leave the relationship between India and Bangladesh?
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Redwan Ahmed
So the relationship between India and Bangladesh have been, especially under this interim administration, have already been very fraught. The two neighboring country which had a very warm relationship between, especially when Awamilee was in, has been, has seen some downfall when the interim administration led by Eunus had the Muhammad Yunus has taken over. And in private conversations, the diplomats have told me that what India now wants to have a working relationship with this interim government, but they will not have a warm relationship with the interim government. With the election slated for the February next year. That might change when an elected government in power, especially democratically elected government in power, India might have to redo or rethink how they want to move ahead with Bangladesh because, you know, these very close neighbors and you know, India for its own interest, wants to have a more peaceful country because, you know, for all this, their national security interest as well. So they are hopeful and people are hopeful that things might change when there is democratically elected government in power. And that's. Yeah, that's also the hope from our end as well.
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Emma Nelson
Radwan Ahmand in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Thank you so much for joining us on the program. Still to come on the Globalist, you.
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Nikhil Goel
Know, if you can get to jumeirah in five minutes instead of 90 minutes, maybe you go there for lunch every day. That's the world we're looking to create.
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Emma Nelson
We'll be heading to the Dubai Air show Stay with us on the globalist.
- [19:09]
UBS Narrator
Craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights. Delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Emma Nelson
Let's continue now, today's newspapers. Joining me in the studio, Janelle Aldred, journalist, communications and media advisor here in the uk. Good morning, Janelle, how are you? How's your week been?
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Janelle Aldred
I'm really good. And we're matching.
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Jacob Parakeilis
We are.
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Emma Nelson
This is the joy of radio. You can't tell what we're wearing and we're never going to tell you. It's a big secret. And you've been in Birmingham, you sort of like whiz up and down the country quite a lot in the uk, doing your thing. So thank you so much. So a busy week in London.
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Janelle Aldred
Yes, a busy week in London. Meeting clients, chatting to people and just.
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Emma Nelson
Having good conversations and looking at the papers. Yes, thank goodness. What have you spotted?
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Janelle Aldred
So one of the first ones I spotted was a Chinese firm actually bought an insurer that was an insurer of CIA agents in the uk. Sorry, in the us. Gosh, early. I've only had two coffees. But it's actually a really interesting one because of course the United States, like the uk, tightens its laws to prevent rivals from buying things in sensitive sectors. However, what they missed was a kind of a loophole which allowed the Chinese, a Chinese company, some might say the Chinese government, to buy an insurer that actually insures CIA and FBI agents personally in their work. So what that meant was then they had access to all of the personal information about, because as you can imagine, it's quite a unique insurance scheme. So they actually were able to buy it. Now once it was spotted, it was then brought back by a U.S. company. But that actually means that there was a time when they had access to the personal details of those kinds of intelligence workers.
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Emma Nelson
So a bit of context here. The company was bought in 2015, so this happened quite a while ago. And then how long was it? It wasn't that long ago, was it? It's like 2016, 2017, when this was all spotted and sorted out. But the question remains, you know, how much damage was done before the US decided was able to tighten its laws.
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Janelle Aldred
And the thing is, what it seems it was part of an actually A longer play by Beijing to actually invest in different companies around the world, especially in sectors that they wanted to. I don't use the word infiltrate because as the article kind of goes on to say is that actually some of these things are just Chinese companies who actually want to make money and so are buying companies up around the world. But it does seem like there is a longer strategic play to basically inveigle themselves around the world in different things. And it's 10 cutting edge industries that they have outlined in kind of a 10 year period plan from 2000 to 2023. So it's actually really interesting that they were one, able to do it. Two, it was spotted and brought back. But three, it does open up lots of questions about what are the geopolitics behind this and what does that mean going forward?
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Emma Nelson
Indeed, I mean, this list that's being published about the 15 wealthy countries which are given Chinese investments or on the receiving end of Chinese investments, the top 10 is US, Australia, UK, Switzerland, Singapore, German, Saudi Arabia, Canada, France, etc. Etc. These are countries which geopolitically take a stance against China. And it is that perpetual problem, isn't it, that headache of the fact that Chinese money is important, Chinese trade is essential. Chinese is also seen, China is also seen as a strategic rival.
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Janelle Aldred
And it's interesting because they were talking about figures of billions. So I think the US is 200 and the UK is 60. That is not an insignificant amount of money to be in someone's back pocket for us essentially in terms of what you owe them. And then when you think about things like tariffs and things that get overlaid onto that, it all actually becomes quite intricate and difficult. So I lend you, you lend to me. I've got something you need, I take it away from you. I make things hard for you, you make things hard for me. What if they tomorrow just said, you know, payback on the loan? We literally couldn't do it.
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Emma Nelson
Let's move on to news that broke overnight here in the United Kingdom. But obviously this was end of play in Canada. Mark Carney has succeeded in narrowly pushing through his budget. And there were two elements to this, weren't they? One of them is it, it massively increases the fiscal deficit because there is a need to respond to Donald Trump's trade wars. There is a need to shore up the military and also invest in in Canada's housing programs. But personally for Carney, had this failed, there was a very high chance that he was going to have to call.
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Janelle Aldred
Elections and that would be the second election in less than a year. So that would have been quite devastating and also disruptive. But when we talk about narrow, it was 170 to 168 was the vote. So we're talking literally about two votes in it for this to pass. And so it says that the budget could eventually be approved, but when you look at a narrow win like that, you know, it's not going to be plain sailing to get, get through to the next stages, because it's not kind of an all in. And he is proposing doubling the fiscal deficit and that's actually going to be, again, quite a big deal in terms of their budget. But it means that the budget also doesn't have as many austerity measures as some had feared because of the task. I can't speak this morning, the task they're taking. But actually also the other thing. But no, but really recent polls also said if elections were held now that he'd still retain power. So I think that's a really interesting move. But again, narrow defeats mean lots more bargaining, lots more back and forth. And so, yes, they would retain power, but it does mean that he's on borrowed time to make something happen.
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Emma Nelson
And indeed, one of the points that is raised across many of the papers is this is not just a narrow victory for Carney, this is a defeat for the Conservative, the right of centre Opposition Conservative Party, because they are still in a mess following the last elections, that their leader, Pierre Polievre, who lost his seat and then regained another one, is actually subject to a formal review of his performance. So the fact remains is actually that Carney could or is capitalising on the fact that the opposition's in a mess.
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Janelle Aldred
And his Liberals are still a few seats short of a majority. And so they did need some opposition legislators to back the budget or abstain, and a handful did abstain. So, yes, he's not in a great position, but I think it's a like politics around the world that you see. He is not in a great position, but his opposition's in a worse position. So he's unable to narrowly kind of get away with using the distraction of what's going on on the other side to get through the things that he needs to.
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Emma Nelson
Let's head to Vietnam for the next story you spotted.
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Naveena Kotor
Yep.
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Janelle Aldred
So Vietnam is going to prosecute a journalist for anti state activities. It's actually really interesting that this is not the first time that this has come up in recent times, because just last month they also had a BBC journalist that had returned home to do a visa and they didn't let them leave the but it is going to be an interesting one because there is a Berlin based journalist and news website editor. He's known for writing critical reports about the South East Asian network, Nation Today, the coffee and it's confusing him, of.
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Emma Nelson
Course, and then we'll let you out.
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Janelle Aldred
So what it is, you know, they are clamping down on journalists who are critical. It's interesting because the website he writes for is not actually accessible in Vietnam. So it's interesting that they actually are clamping down on such things. The journalist that was going there was going there to renew a visa, review a passport and at that time, Keir Starmer was asked to raise it with the Prime Minister who was coming to visit at the end of October. So it is interesting that the press freedoms are being clamped down on in such a way that even if you're not writing something actively or in the country, they are still willing to prosecute, expel, stop you from leaving.
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Emma Nelson
Finally, let's clear your lovely brain with a piece of Bach because if there's anything that's on going to wipe away the cobwebs and set you on the right footing, it's going to be a piece of Bach, obviously.
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Natasha Shaffee
No.
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Emma Nelson
And they found new pieces of Bach, which is huge.
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Janelle Aldred
Yeah. It's a beautiful story because it's a piece that hasn't been performed for 320 years. It's an unknown organ works. And you know, whether or not you're a fan of hearing organ pipes play, there's something quite majestic about the way that they work. And actually it caught the attention of a researcher when he was cataloguing some of the manuscripts. And then he found this piece and it's called the Shachon in D minor, BWV 1178 and in G minor, that's an easily memorable number in 1979. So they were undated, unsigned, and it was 30 years actually to confirm that the pieces were indeed penned by him because it was one of his students that had actually written it down. But they're said to be of high quality and it was actually played for the first time with we're back as.
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Emma Nelson
Buried Janelle Aldred, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio. Now a quick look at some of the other stories we're following here today. A UN resolution has been passed endorsing Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan. Key elements of a second face have also been agreed upon. Mr. Trump has proposed a board of Peace, a transitional governing body for the territory that he would chair himself. Himself. Canada's parliament has narrowly voted in favour of Prime Minister Mark Carney's first budget, saving him from having to call fresh elections. His budget proposes doubling the fiscal deficit to counter Donald Trump's tariffs and to fund defence and housing programs. And Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the US President Donald Trump at the White House today. The de facto ruler of the Gulf state will use the meeting to deepen decades old cooperation and security. And those are the headlines on Monocle Radio. 929 in Kyiv, 829 in Zurich, 729 here in London. Now Ukraine has been promised more military help from France in a letter of intent which is a political commitment rather than a purchase deal. Kyiv could receive up to 100 French made Rafale warplanes over the next 10 years. But this is just one part of a wider and deeper strategy that Ukraine needs not only to beat its Russian invaders, but to keep the peace afterwards. Well, Jacob Parakelis is a research leader for rand, Europe's defence and security research group. RAND has just published a five point list of what is needed both domestically and for the international community to do to ensure the survival of Ukraine in the long term. Good morning Jacob.
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Jacob Parakeilis
Good morning.
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Emma Nelson
Good to have you with us. So you have been commissioned or your organization has been commissioned to write reports and effectively sort of cast a long view for Ukraine. How did this report come about?
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Jacob Parakeilis
This emerged from a set of conversations that we had with the Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Transformation which is an interesting format because the Ministry of Digital Transformation wasn't originally a war fighting ministry. It was set up by the Zelensky government in the distant past of 2019 to provide better digital services for Ukraine, Ukrainians, e voting, car registration, that sort of thing. But after the full scale Russian invasion In February of 22, the organization made a sort of hard right hand turn into being a war fighting support organization. So leveraging emerging technology to improve Ukraine's odds on the battlefield because of course Ukraine is a third the size of Russia more or less and needs to innovate in order to be able to preserve its sovereignty and protect itself. Again, Russian invasion and this is where.
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Emma Nelson
You come in and you come in with this doctrine.
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Jacob Parakeilis
That's right. Because what we can't do for Ukraine is tell them how to fight day to day on the battlefield. No one knows better how to fight against a conventional adversary like Russia at this point better than the Ukrainians. They are the undisputed masters of that topic. What we can do. What an organization based outside of Kyiv can do is sit back with the luxury of not being bombed every night and say, okay, this is the long term thing. This is how to think beyond just the immediate urgency of defending yourself and your homes every day, how to sort of set yourself up to build a defense structure, build the policies and the approaches to defense that'll be effective in the long term.
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Emma Nelson
Indeed. And without giving too much away to the Russians, what did you tell them do to.
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Jacob Parakeilis
Well, so one thing they were very clear about, because they've had this evolution, they started as a post Soviet republic and they inherited a military structure and a military way of doing things, a doctrine from the Soviets. And when the Russians launched the initial invasion, the sort of soft invasion, although it was anything but soft in 2014, they very quickly found that, as they frequently say, a small Soviet army can't beat a big Soviet army. So they imported NATO doctrine, NATO ways of doing things from the US and Britain and Canada principally.
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Emma Nelson
And just explain, lay that out a little bit more what that actually looks like. So what does. How do you import a NATO doctrine and actually what does that mean and look like?
- [33:11]
Jacob Parakeilis
So doctrine is a little bit like, I'm using the term advisedly. It's a little bit like an instruction manual. So if you are a military commander and you're given orders to take a town, right, you have a certain number of forces, the enemy's in front of you, you're ordered to. To take the town away from them. Doctrine is kind of the way that you would approach things. Do you start by bombarding the town with artillery and then rushing towards it with tanks? Do you try to encircle the town and cut off its lines of communication? There are various ways of approaching a problem, and doctrine gives you guidelines. And the Soviets had a very specific way of doing it, which was basically massing artillery, blasting the target and then marching towards it en masse. That doesn't work very well when the other side is bigger. It has more artillery. Artillery than you do, as the Ukrainians found out very quickly in 2014. So they switch tacks. They learn to do things from the Americans and the Brits and the Canadians. But then the war has changed, especially since 2022. The proliferation of emerging technology, principally small drones, but also electronic warfare and all kinds of advanced things that weren't really that. Not weren't relevant, but weren't nearly as prevalent on the battlefield in 2014. And that's where the Ministry of Digital Transformation comes in. Because, you know, these are not the sort of people who've been fighting for 20 years and have a set way of doing things. These are a group of very young people who come from computer engineering and software design and, you know, this broad range of civilian backgrounds. And they, you know, they have different ideas of how to integrate technology into.
- [34:51]
Emma Nelson
Fighting forces and dealing with, with a group of people who are not, as you say, military fighters, they are civilians. And they are having to, dare we say it, take a dynamic approach, which is effectively going along and trying to work out what you're doing. How does that change the way that you approach the work given the fact that you're dealing with people in real time who are not military minded? Which is, is ordinarily very, very different from the approach that you could take when everything is calm and the guns are silent.
- [35:26]
Jacob Parakeilis
It relies on, I think, being able to not only think slightly laterally, but use a different vocabulary. So one of the things that we propose in the first, we've published two of the four reports. There's some other smaller ancillary pieces coming over the next few weeks as well. But one of the things that we proposed was that the doctrinal system be based around a wiki model so that you give everyone with equities on the battlefield, so frontline troops, commanders, people working on logistics, but also people doing hardware and software development. Because the situation on the front changes frequently enough that you need the people building drones and the people programming them to be able to update their hardware and software very quickly to take advantage of or avoid being overcome by new Russian tactics, tactics, jamming, electronic warfare, that kind of thing. So you give them all a stake in it. Instead of having a cell of particularly smart military officers who just sit down and write the doctrine, you spread the writing process out as broadly as possible to preserve this unique sort of horizontal grassroots system that's made Ukraine's defense so effective.
- [36:39]
Emma Nelson
What have you learned in all this process about how to plan and run and win a war, war that you didn't know before the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- [36:48]
Jacob Parakeilis
I think the thing that really struck me is the degree. I mean, it's something of repetition of what I just said, but the degree to which, especially in the Ukrainian instance, success on the battlefield is not just a function of leadership. And I don't mean to dismiss the idea that leadership is important. It's clearly important. Incompetent leaders can lose winnable battles. Competent leaders can win easily losable battles. But especially in the Ukrainian instance, one thing that we've heard over and over from a Variety of sources is the degree to which information sharing sort of horizontally. So, you know, the executive officer of one battalion is friends with the commander of the next battalion up the line and they're chatting with each other on signal and just saying, hey, by the way, the Russians have started doing X you need to do.
- [37:37]
Janelle Aldred
Yeah.
- [37:37]
Jacob Parakeilis
To stop them. Those networks, those sort of, if you're trying to map what's effective, just looking at the org chart and saying, okay, well this is the commander and he's quite good. So it'll go well, misses a lot of the point because a huge amount of the resiliency of an army or the resiliency of a defense, because it's not just a military operation, it's also how private industry and civil society and the other agencies and informal groupings within society work together to sort of bind the country together in unity.
- [38:09]
Emma Nelson
Finally, looking more broadly, what does the changing nature of the support that Ukraine is given either from the European Union and also from the Trump administration in Washington, how does that get factored into a doctrine?
- [38:23]
Jacob Parakeilis
Well, I mean, in theory, doctrine should be usable regardless of the technology. But what we heard from the Ukrainians and what we've seen is that they're increasingly capable of building the, what you might call lower end equipment. So small drones, missiles, small arms, the things that infantry soldiers and small units fight with, they're not particularly close to having the industry necessary to build things like these Rafale and Gripen fighter jets that we've seen Zelenskyy sign memorandums of understanding to acquire. So the big, you know, big ticket, high end stuff is still going to be necessary and it's up to Europe to figure out how to deliver them quickly because it's all well and good to say here are 150 fighter jets, but if they're not delivered until 2035, that's a very, very, very long time.
- [39:17]
Emma Nelson
Jacob Parakeilis from rand, Europe's Defence and Security Research Group. Thank you so much for joining me in the studio.
- [39:27]
UBS Narrator
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- [40:10]
Emma Nelson
It is what 10:39am in Nairobi to hear from our correspondent Naveena Kotor. She's here with the roundup of everything that's happening where she is. Good morning. Navigation.
- [40:20]
Naveena Kotor
Nice to be back.
- [40:21]
Emma Nelson
And how, and how are things in Nairobi this morning?
- [40:25]
Naveena Kotor
Things were supposed to be rainy, but we've had a very kind of erratic rainy season. So actually it's quite sunny and warm.
- [40:33]
Emma Nelson
Thank you for the weather update. Right, what's. What news from where you are?
- [40:37]
Naveena Kotor
Well, I thought we look at what's happening in Mali for the last couple of weeks, especially the capital has been the subject of a fuel blockade that has been imposed by the Al Qaeda affiliate Ginim. Bamako has been cut off from fuel and other supplies coming in from Senegal, coming in from Cote d'.
- [40:58]
Emma Nelson
Ivoire.
- [40:59]
Naveena Kotor
And it really is an unprecedented situation in that, you know, Mali has battled militants, Al Qaeda affiliated militants in the past, but primarily in the north. But this very simple tactic of, of cutting off the capital from supply seems to be, you know, effective in that there are now talks or not. There are now suggestions that an open criticism of how this military government has been handling them. And there are some suggestions that the government might have to negotiate with the militants.
- [41:32]
Emma Nelson
And this negotiation could lead to what?
- [41:35]
Naveena Kotor
That's a very interesting question. I think the outcome of these negotiations, if they are already happening or if they are to happen, is unclear. There are suggestions that the group might be interested in holding territory, that the government might be able to. One, it's one thing the government might be able to offer them is to hold some territory and for the government and its troops to retreat from these areas. Most analysts seem to agree that even if Ginim manages to take the capital, which would be unprecedented in the region, region, they're not enough fighters to hold the capital and to run the country. So it looks more likely that there will be some kind of trade off in the months that will have to be negotiated.
- [42:22]
Emma Nelson
Okay, let's move to Tanzania, a country which up until recently has been peaceful and democratic. Transition has happened quite easily. This has not been the case in the last few weeks, has it?
- [42:34]
Naveena Kotor
Yes, not at all. I mean, we know Tanzania from the Serengeti, from safari worries, from Zanzibar beach holidays. But the election that happened at the end of October really tarnished the country's reputation as a sort of, you know, country of stability, a safe place to go for tourists. The allegations are that the president who secured 98 in the election, cracked down too hard against people who were protesting against opposition parties being banned, banned from running in the election, that bystanders and people were killed, that the security services persecuted people, have abducted people. There are even talks about mass graves and about foreign troops being part of this crackdown. The British Papers are calling it the Tiananmen moment of for Tanzania. There has also been very open criticism by the United nations nations who are calling for an investigation. And I think the president has sort of now, is now trying to backtrack and has offered some kind of reconciliation process. But I think very few people are convinced that this is going to lead anywhere.
- [43:50]
Emma Nelson
Indeed. I mean, it's the public going to buy this?
- [43:54]
Naveena Kotor
No, it does. I don't think it's very hard, to be honest. It's very hard to say if the public buys anything because it's impossible for foreign journalists, almost impossible for foreign journalists to travel there unless you report about electric cars and new railway lines being opened. It's very difficult to cover political stories there, to speak to people. People who were filming protests have been arrested and charged with treason. So it's a very tense environment that I think even very experienced human rights organizations are finding hard to operate in. So the, the question of how many people actually died, are we around these protests? The numbers range from a few hundred to a few thousand. And I think it is something that we will probably hear about more in the coming weeks and months as people are working on this now.
- [44:43]
Emma Nelson
Monocle's Nairobi correspondent, Naveena Kotor, thank you so much for joining me on the line. You're listening to the Globalist. Now. Mr. And Mrs. Smith. The Luxury Hotel Directory was founded in 2003 by James and Tamara Lohan and has evolved into a global travel club with more than a million members. It was acquired by Hyatt in 2023 and it's been opened up to the group's 51 million World of Hyatt loyalty scheme members. Well, this summer the founders handed the reins to the longtime colleague and now CEO Natasha Schaffi, who joined Monocle's Tom Webb at Midori House to talk about her six months in the position and the year ahead.
- [45:24]
Natasha Shaffee
I would say it's been a year of many chapters. There is a beautiful brutality to business, which I guess I really enjoy personally. It's been a huge one for me. So I stepped into the role of CEO here at Mr. And Mrs. Smith in April. I've been in the business for 20 years and it was a real milestone and privilege to, I guess, take the keys from the founders and be the first employee leading Mr. And Mrs. Smith. So a real, real moment for me personally now, you know, with having a great supporting parent company in Hyatt, it feels like an opportunity for us to embrace, embrace new scale in a way that's exciting, but it's certainly been a very choppy year, I guess, for luxury travel in particular, where with all that's happening in the macro kind of environment, it certainly doesn't mean that luxury travel isn't affected, of course, by that. But there is a resilience to it that we've been very lucky to kind of navigate as well. And having that self awareness and I guess courage to face what we face when it comes from a trading perspective. But more importantly, having the kind of tactical levers and entrepreneurial spirit that's still very important to Smith to make sure that we navigate those waters through 2025. So it's not over yet. As I keep telling the team, we've still got six weeks until Christmas, is that right? So we will be, you know, making sure we make each and every day count. But it's definitely been a year where I feel I've had probably 20 years smashed into one.
- [46:56]
Inzaman Rashid
So a lot of change. Speaking of change, there is a parent company called the World of Hyatt. How has that moved the business around? Or is it in fact business as usual?
- [47:07]
Natasha Shaffee
So, you know, being I guess one of the original founding kind of team members. One thing to say is that good entrepreneurs and business owners understand when they have reach the potential of the business under their leadership and their stewardship, but more importantly have the broad shoulders and I guess maturity to understand having a strategic acquisition in our case is actually only going to benefit the business. The inception, the idea that they've created and make sure that it kind of lives for another 20, 30, 50 years into the future under kind of experience on a different level and so forth. From our perspective, we are very lucky in terms of our parent company. You know, they've acquired Ms. Rimses Smith, a different brand, very boutique and luxury. You know, business that they've not done, had, you know, bought before. And they've let us be who we are. And that's really important and very wise of them because they don't want to make sure we lose our magic and the things that we do really well. But they certainly have that kind of lovely arm around our shoulder to say, okay, but here, here's a big world now that we can embrace together without ever kind of compromising our curation and our brand standards. So for that I always use the word evolution and I mean that very intentionally. It is an evolution for the business. It's not forgetting where we came from and it's not changing for the sake of changing, but it's embracing this new opportunity in this level of scale so so far, really beautiful relationship and a great opportunity for the next stage of our potential.
- [48:43]
Inzaman Rashid
And is that the feeling from the consumer experience as well? Are customers saying it hasn't changed? In fact, it's enhanced my relationship with the brand.
- [48:53]
Natasha Shaffee
I don't think many people really know we're acquired and whether that's. I think I would say that's a measure of success in some ways, because it is testament to our parent company doing exactly what they're demonstrating for us internally, which is letting us live and breathe the brand and the business as it began and as it is understood today. So from a consumer perspective, I think very few would actually even know that, yeah, we're acquired, we've been acquired. We have though new customers, meaning World of Hype members can now, you know, book Mr. Umsley Smith Hotels. Again, we don't necessarily deal with those World of Hype members. They're looked after by the kind of hired team, if that makes sense. But our hotels are now getting a variety of customers staying at their hotels. And so that's the, I guess, navigation, the opportunity for the hotels as well. We're opening up new markets, but that's, I guess, the place where our customer would actually feel the difference.
- [49:51]
Inzaman Rashid
Now we're in a very privileged position talking to you because you do have that 20 years of vision and wealth of experience, experience with the brand. If we're going to go back 20 years, are there still properties, are there still hotels that. That share the ethos of the brand that you're still with? And, and what, what are those values?
- [50:08]
Redwan Ahmed
Yeah.
- [50:09]
Natasha Shaffee
So I. One thing that I'm very, again, intentionally doing is making sure that we're visiting. I can visit my dream would be able to go to all the hotels around the world and say hello. And I hope that dream will come true one day. But I have the. Been very intentional with my time, especially with the transition of making sure that hoteliers know who I am. Not for the sake of me, Natasha, but just for the reassurance of what I represent as CEO now and what is not going to change, as I said, and what will be protected, but also the opportunity that they have. So I went to go and visit Limewood, one of the original Mr. And Mrs. Smith hotels that joined, you know, 20, 15 years ago, I think it was actually. And they are solely independent with Mr. And Mrs. Smith. And what I mean by that is we're the only other person apart from themselves that looks after their distribution of their rooms and, you know, making sure that guests stay with them and so going there and visiting the property, which is remarkable and beautiful and very special, and speaking to the md, I believe it was, and the general manager, you know, an understanding, understanding what is really important to them and how by meeting me and understanding our next journey that we're going to protect that specialness. They don't necessarily want to take on all of the wonderful things that Smith can offer them, and that's okay. It's that human connection. So, yes, there are lots of properties that, you know, have been in our collection for a long time and will remain to be, you know, because that partnership is the most important thing. And understanding that as each of our hotels are very different in terms of our curation, there isn't a cookie cutter setting and criteria. It's about making sure we go and visit each of them and experience that hotel and represent that hotel in its true, you know, trueness and identity. It's also knowing that each hotel has its own needs and that relationship that We've built over 20 years, years with them and more importantly will continue to nurture in this next stage will still remain and they don't have to conform to X, Y and Z. It's about making sure we fulfil the needs that they really desire us to fulfil and do so in a way that Smith has always done that which is very human and very personal to them.
- [52:25]
Emma Nelson
Mr. And Mrs. Smith's new CEO, Natasha Shafi There talking to Monocle's Tom Webb. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Rob Radio. Finally on today's program with the time here in London, 752. We head to the Dubai Air Show. It's begun. More than 200 aircraft on display, more than 1500 exhibitors. Trying to cover it all is Monocles Gulf correspondent Inzaman Rashid. Good morning, Insi.
- [52:55]
Inzaman Rashid
Morning, Emma. Yeah, trying to cover it all is the right term to use. Probably running around like a headless chicken is even better. That literally describes my life right now here on the tarmac. Dubai Air Show.
- [53:09]
Emma Nelson
Excellent. That's the spirit. We're very grateful for all your energy and commitment and wearing out of shoe leather. So you're on the, on the tarmac in Dubai. Just, just paint a picture for us, would you, please?
- [53:19]
Inzaman Rashid
Look, this is an absolute spectacle. This air show is really incredible. It's, it's got everything you could ask for as a, as an avatar aviation geek, but also as someone who isn't. Someone who's just a frequent traveler. If you came along, would just be fascinated by the Display the choreography of the air show is, is brilliant. Yesterday there was a visit from the ruler of Dubai, his son, the Crown Prince, and also the ruler of Abu Dhabi as well. They officially launched the air show here and we had a flurry of details deals as well. Now I think it's important to first say what this air show is focusing on. They're talking a lot about flying taxis which are expected to come here early 2026. But also this air show, I think kind of hangs in the balance when it comes to Airbus and Boeing, of course, those two big plane companies who have had very difficult times over the the last couple of years. And whether the delivery of some of their newest models will actually or, well, they haven't made it on time, but will actually come very soon, is what has been overshadowing this air show. But that confidence, particularly in Boeing, was really refueled yesterday by Emirates. Emirates announced a $38 billion order for an additional 65 Boeing 777, 79 aircrafts, giving the US plane maker a much needed boost, I guess, after the plane's debut was postponed to 2027. So confidence in Boeing and Airbus is really being talked about at the air show as well as flying taxis which have been on display. And that's something that the UAE in particular are very excited about the future. Other things to notice as well that are on display ready, the new premium airline from Saudi Arabia. They're debuting here at the Dubai Air show as well in all purple color. They're really showing off their interiors, the uniforms. And they've got a helicopter on site which will allow people, if they want to take a helicopter as soon as they come off a Riyadh airplane, then they can book it all under the Riyadh Air concierge app. And it means that you can get mobility across the country as and where needed.
- [55:43]
Emma Nelson
Okay, so. So lots of bit to sort of go through in a very small amount of time. Talk to me about air taxis because I know that you've been talking to organizations at the air show about the fact that this is pretty feasible now.
- [55:57]
Inzaman Rashid
It really is that, yeah, it's very much going to be a reality here by early 2026. There's two companies, Archer Aviation and Joby. Now Joby's looking after the one here in Dubai and Archer Aviation is working with the government in Abu Dhabi and there is genuine competition between these two to, to see who can be the first one to, to launch these air taxis. But I've been speaking to Nikhil Goel. He's from Archer Aviation. And I asked him a bit about why there is an actual need for flying taxis Right now.
- [56:31]
Nikhil Goel
Time is the most valuable thing we have and no matter how much money you have, you can't get more of it. And so we have started to see, especially with these growing populations is more and more people are spending more and more time stuck in traffic. I myself spent probably three to four hours in the back of a car yesterday going to and from the air show. And it's only getting worse. Our cities are getting more crowded, but our transportation systems are getting longer, they're getting more congested and we still travel in two dimensions. It simply cannot scale. And you've got to start planting the seeds for five to ten years down the road. And so that's exactly what we're doing here at Archer. And I think that when we do that, we are going to one day change the way people live and work. You know, if you can get to jumeirah in five minutes instead of 90 minutes, maybe you go there for lunch every day. That's the world we're looking to create.
- [57:22]
Emma Nelson
Archer's Nikki, go there talking to MD at the Dubai Air Show. Okay, you have a scant minute to tell us what you're doing today.
- [57:29]
Inzaman Rashid
Today go a lot of running around. We're going to be speaking to the vice president of Boeing Global, Dr. Brendan Nelson, to get his take on, on the deliveries and, and whether they'll get there on time and the new orders that are made. And also we'll be, we'll be watching what's happening up in the sky because plenty of acrobatics, red arrows here on the tarmac here in Dubai. And of course we are at the site of what will be the new mammoth airport in a few years time, DWC which will see more than 150 million passengers come through its door when it's built.
- [58:06]
Emma Nelson
Insam and Rashid doing all the hard work for us at the Dubai Air Show. Thank you so much for joining us on the line. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to all my guests. And thanks too to the producers Vincent McEvinney, Tom Webb and Chris Chak. Our researcher was Joanna Mosa. Our studio manager was Lily Austin with editing assistance from Christy O. Grady. After the headlines. More music on the way. The briefing's live at midday here in London. I'll be back with a globalist at the same time tomorrow. But for now, from me, Emma Nelson, goodbye. Thank you very much for listening. Sam.
- [59:28]
UBS Narrator
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